NBA Picks 2019/20 (July 30-August 14)

There isn't an aspect of our usual lives that has not been affected by the pandemic which has taken hold over the last several months and sports is no different.

Many are beginning to return in a new look and that is the case for the NBA who have decided to send their remaining twenty-two teams to a 'bubble' in Florida where the remaining regular season games and the PlayOffs will all be played.

It isn't going to be the same as previous years even if the format for the post-season is going to be what we have become accustomed to seeing- no home court advantage surely opens the door for a number of teams to perhaps surprise their way into a Championship success.

Going into the resumption of play I would still be very surprised if one of the two Los Angeles teams is not playing in the NBA Finals, but the Eastern Conference looks more difficult to predict. No fans and no home court advantage is going to level up the playing field and I do think the regular season games to be played will be a good indicator of which teams are going to cope with things best.

Eventually I do think the cream will rise to the top as players become used to the surroundings, but it will be interesting to see and I will admit it is very welcoming to have more live sports back in our lives. It sounds a little sad that so many can't cope without it, but sports is the great relief to everyday life and I do think the post-season of both the NBA and NHL will be bringing the drama that only sporting events can.

I will place all of the regular season picks from the next two weeks in this one thread before we get into a potential Play In situation.

Personally I would have loved to have seen the NBA take a risk with the format for these unprecedented times and perhaps set up a World Cup kind of format for the post-season, but ultimately Adam Silver and the players likely preferred the regular PlayOff setting to try and keep things as normal as possible.

It was a chance for the NBA, but the bigger concern is making sure everyone involved remains healthy and the teams can compete without fear during a time when cases in the United States continue to produce eye-watering, sad numbers.

I hope that is the least we see over the coming weeks and nothing like the outbreak already witnessed in the Major League Baseball season. From there we can enjoy the Basketball as the short run towards the PlayOffs begins on Thursday 30th July and then it is onto the fun of the post-season.

Thursday 30th July

Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick

The decision was made to use a 'bubble' at Disney World in Florida and that means there is going to be a new look to the PlayOffs and the end of the regular season.

While the format remains the same for the post-season, the fact that all games will be played in neutral settings does remove the need for travel and perhaps having to deal with the same issues that have popped up very early on in the Major League Baseball season which recently got underway.

One change in the PlayOff format is the chance for the Number 9 Seed in either Conference to have an opportunity to 'play in' to the post-season with the regular season cut short. It looks unlikely to be used in the Eastern Conference with only the Washington Wizards invited along who are not in the PlayOff spots, but the Western Conference has five teams looking to chase down the Number 8 Seeded Memphis Grizzlies and at least have a shot at beating them out for the final place in the PlayOffs.

There are some decent looking teams looking to do that knowing if they finish the regular season within 4 games of the Number 8 Seed that they will get an opportunity to make the post-season. One of those is the New Orleans Pelicans (28-36) who won two in a row back in March and who will open the NBA regular season bubble on Thursday.

Zion Williamson is the big name with the young Pelicans roster who are looking to make a point having traded away Anthony Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers before the season began. The irony is that the Pelicans would be looking to upset Davis' new team if they can make the PlayOffs and the Pelicans had won eight of their previous thirteen games to earn some positive momentum.

However, it has been made clear that the Pelicans feel the future is more important than the present and that means they are going to be careful with their young players. Instead of taking risks, the Pelicans will make sure the minutes are well spread to build experience which will put the team on a good platform for the years ahead when they will be looking to win a Championship.

There are some doubts about whether Williamson can participate in this opening game having recently returned to the bubble after being given permission to attend a family matter. He is only just out of quarantine and it feels the minutes will be restricted in a best case scenario.

Offensively New Orleans are a strong looking team, but Zion Williamson is already a leader for this young team and it will be a much tougher game for them without him. They did win all of their scrimmages getting ready for the restart, while the Pelicans are capable of plenty of energy around the boards to at least force second chance points, but this is far from an easy opening game.

The Pelicans take on the Utah Jazz (41-23) who have already secured a PlayOff spot, but who will be looking to perhaps improve their current Number 4 Seed in the days ahead. They are only 3 games behind the Los Angeles Clippers as the Number 2 Seed, but it is a tightly congested portion of the standings and a strong end or a poor one could see a vast difference in their final position.

It is also going to be a test of the chemistry of the Jazz who saw a falling out between key players Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell thanks to some of the most ridiculous actions you will have seen from anybody in the public eye. Those actions have to be attributed to Gobert's foolishness having dismissed the virus affecting the world and deciding he would touch all of the reporters and team mates' belongings without a care in the world.

Things changed for Gobert when he tested positive for Covid-19 and the strained relationship between himself and Mitchell came about after it was revealed the latter had also picked up the infection. It was largely blamed on Gobert's disregard for advice given to the public, but both players are entering the bubble trying to focus on their basketball rather than off court issues.

Judging by Rudy Gobert's comments, it feels like the Jazz are largely back on the same page now although they are going to be missing Bojan Bogdanovic for the remainder of the season. The sharpshooter was the second highest scorer on the roster and a serious threat from the three point range, but a wrist injury needed surgery and he will be replaced by Joe Ingles in the starting line up.

There is still confidence that Utah can be a real threat in the post-season having seen Ingles and Mike Conley playing well in scrimmages, but the intensity will be different now. Utah do have a good Defensive unit which always keeps them in games though and if those two players can find their range it should make Gobert and Mitchell big threats for the Jazz from an Offensive point of view.

Utah's big man might have been responsible for the decision to shut down the NBA when it was made, but the Jazz had been surging in a positive direction before that. The Jazz have won five of their last six games and they have already beaten the New Orleans Pelicans twice in three meetings in 2019/20.

All three games were high-scoring affairs, but the rustiness of coming out in the bubble is hard to factor into this game. If there is any, the Utah Jazz are the stronger team Defensively and that could give them the edge in a game in which it feels like they are set as the underdog because it 'means more' to the New Orleans Pelicans.

The early games in the NBA might need some watching too, but the Utah Jazz do hold a 9-4-1 record against the spread in their last fourteen against the New Orleans Pelicans. With Zion Williamson arguably still building up towards his peak levels, I think Utah will find enough scoring from the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley to edge to an upset win.

Utah are 6-0 against the spread in recent games set as the underdog and I think they can keep this one close at the least.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers Pick

Nothing has really changed over the course of the season and the Los Angeles Lakers (49-14) and the Los Angeles Clippers (44-20) are set to open up against one another on the first day of the new look bubble of the NBA. Home court advantage would not have been important when the Lakers and Clippers were likely to meet in the PlayOffs, but the neutral setting of the remainder of the season does take away from the Lakers who are set to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

That makes other Series on the way to the NBA Finals look potentially more dangerous and in the last eight games of the regular season it would need something miraculous to happen if the Lakers were to blow their 5.5 game lead at the top of the Conference.

Things are a touch more murky for the Los Angeles Clippers who will be desperate to finish with either the Number 2 or Number 3 Seed in the Conference. It would guarantee avoiding playing the Lakers until the Western Conference Finals and they are 3 games ahead of the Utah Jazz in the current Number 4 spot, although the First Round Series is going to be a tough one for the Clippers no matter how things end.

Both teams have lost some key players ahead of the resumption of play with Avery Bradley being the most notable for opting out of the season. The Lakers also going to begin without Rajon Rondo, who has an injury, but they have been able to sign the likes of Dion Waiters and JR Smith to make up for the losses and boost the bench.

On the other side the Los Angeles Clippers are likely going to be missing Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell who both had to leave the bubble. Better news comes from the likely suiting up of Patrick Beverley, Landry Shamet and Ivica Zubac, while the break will have given the likes of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard a chance to refresh.

That break may also be music to the ears of the Los Angeles Lakers with LeBron James as fresh as he ever would be going into the PlayOffs. His partnership with Anthony Davis has worked as well as the Lakers would have hoped over the last several months and Davis is expected to play despite being poked in the eye in a scrimmage game against the Orlando Magic last weekend.

In a seven game series I do think it is going to be very hard to separate the Lakers and Clippers if both teams are healthy. My edge would be with the Clippers, although in this opening game on the resumption of play you do have to think they are missing key contributors which gives the Lakers a real edge.

Both teams are strong Defensively, but the second unit of the Clippers will have been dented without Lou Williams, while I do think JR Smith and Dion Waiters can give the Number 1 Seed a boost. Neither team will want to show too much of their hand with their Seeding positions largely in control and with seven more regular season games to complete to secure their spots.

Scrimmage games have shown that both the Lakers and Clippers look to be in good shape and it is a series in which the underdog has had the better of things in 2019/20. All three previous games have been won by the dog, but here I do think the Lakers will be able to square things up for the season having lost the first two games and beaten the Clippers just days before the suspension of play back in March.

My feeling is that the Lakers might be more keen to lay down a marker in this one ahead of a potential Series in the PlayOffs and the key contributors missing for the Clippers will be hard to make up.

However it may be more likely that the two teams are looking to hide some of their cards for a potential PlayOff Series and that may see the two Defenses coming out on top. Games between the Lakers and Clippers have been tough affairs already this season and the potential rustiness of the teams for the intensity of a real NBA game might just slow them down too.

With the Clippers and Lakers both missing some key players, I think the total may be very slightly on the high side here and looking for a fourth 'under' of the season between these two may be the best play.


Friday 31st July
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: There are some big Seeding games in the NBA on Friday, but the return of Basketball also means you may want to take a watching brief on some of the teams involved. While there are six games scheduled on the day, only one of those is appealing enough from a NBA Pick point of view.

That comes from the second set of games scheduled for the day's play when the Portland Trail Blazers (29-37) take on the Memphis Grizzlies (32-33). If the regular season had been completed as planned it may have been difficult for the Trail Blazers to close the gap to the Number 8 Seeded Grizzlies, but the new look end to the season gives them a chance with a strong finish.

One or two players in the Memphis camp are not happy with the new rules which state that the Number 8 Seed has to finish at least 4 games clear of the Number 9th placed team in either Conference to earn a guaranteed PlayOff spot. That is not likely to be an issue in the Eastern Conference, but the Grizzlies have a host of teams below them that are almost certain to finish within that mark and that will mean a 'Play In' situation.

It would mean the Number 9 Seed needs to beat the Number 8 Seed twice to steal their PlayOff spot, while the Number 8 team would only need to win once, but the Grizzlies do feel it is another obstacle in front of them in what has been a season of overachievement. That overachievement gives them some confidence though and Memphis had won four of their last six games before the sudden postponement of the NBA back in March.

The Grizzlies have the size to challenge the Portland Trail Blazers and during the regular season they have played pretty well at both ends of the court. A young team have certainly played above the levels that most expected of them and Ja Morant has been everything the Grizzlies would have hoped when Drafting him last year.

A few months ago the Grizzlies would have been very confident they could secure a season success over the Trail Blazers who reached the Western Conference Finals last season. There were some suggestions that the big names in the Portland camp would not be involved in the resumption of play, but Damian Lillard's biggest issue is a foot problem he is dealing with although that is not expected to keep him out of this one.

Trevor Ariza is one player that won't be involved, but the four and a half month break between games in the regular season has boosted the depth of the Trail Blazers. Both Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins would have missed the regular season if the season had completed when it should have, but both are ready to go now and that is a big boost for the Trail Blazers.

It should help them, but you can't expect massive things from players who have not played a competitive game for months. However, if both Nurkic and Collins are back up to the levels that we know they can play at, the Portland Trail Blazers may be the most dangerous team in front of the Memphis Grizzlies when it comes to the final spot in the Western Conference PlayOffs.

Those big men can give the Grizzlies a real challenge on the boards and I do think the underachieving Portland team will be a threat in this short run to the post-season. Defensively the Trail Blazers can be vulnerable though and you do have to wonder if their team is ready to go right away having struggled in the scrimmages preparing for the restart.

My feeling is that Portland may be a touch overrated at the beginning of the resumption because we don't really know how their returning players are going to cope. The young Memphis team will feel they have nothing to lose and they are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven against Portland which includes beating them outright in two of the three earlier meetings.

Add in the fact that the Grizzlies are 10-4 against the spread when given 4 or fewer points as the underdog this season compared with Portland being 7-10 against the spread as the small favourite and I do think backing the underdog may pay off here.

It isn't a huge spread, but Memphis might be able to score enough points to stay with the Trail Blazers and force this game to go down to the wire.


Monday 3rd August
I had a couple of busy days so I was not able to put in the kind of research needed to make any NBA Picks as the regular season continues in the NBA bubble in Orlando.

It has been a weekend with some mixed results as teams try and rediscover the chemistry and consistency they would have had without the long break from playing competitive basketball.

I do think by the time the PlayOffs will come around that the teams will all be in better shape, but for now you have to expect some ups and downs.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Home court advantage is not going to exist in the NBA PlayOffs in 2020, but that doesn't mean any team wants to roll into the post-season with no momentum behind them. There is plenty of movement in terms of Seeding in the Western Conference to come in the days before the PlayOffs and only 3.5 games separate the Number 2 Seeded Los Angeles Clippers and the current Number 6 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (41-24).

Bridging that may be a step too far for the Thunder, but they can certainly improve their current spot and that will begin if they can beat the Denver Nuggets (43-23) as both teams get set to play a second game in the NBA bubble.

The Thunder crushed the Utah Jazz, but a short-handed Denver team were blown out by the Miami Heat on the same day. It does mean the Thunder have a bit more momentum behind them having picked up from where they left off in March, and they will be looking to win a fifth game in a row and move into a position where they can control the kind of PlayOff path they want to lead.

Expectations have been surpassed by the Thunder throughout the 2019/20 season and the team do feel they have been given a huge boost by a returning Andre Roberson who was one of the elite Defenders in the NBA before suffering a long-term injury. Roberson has looked like an improved player in the NBA bubble, although his minutes will be restricted for now to make sure there isn't a setback.

With Chris Paul leading the team, the Thunder look in confident mood but the same cannot be said for the Denver Nuggets. They gave up 125 points to the Miami Heat on Saturday and Will Barton, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray were all missing.

We don't know if any of those players will be available for the Monday game with the Thunder, but it does mean Denver are going to struggle to contain Oklahoma City. Despite being short-handed, I do think the Nuggets will have expected a much better all around in their loss to the Miami Heat and that should make them more competitive in this one even if those three mentioned are unavailable again.

Denver struggled at both ends of the court in their opening loss in the NBA bubble, but there will be a demand to show more intensity on the Defensive side of the court. That should make them more competitive, but Oklahoma City have a very strong Defensive team from which the foundation for success this season have been built.

The Thunder are 14-4 against the spread when favoured by less than 7.5 points this season and the Nuggets are 5-8-1 against the spread when given up to 7.5 points as the underdog. Oklahoma City have also been strong when playing teams with a winning record and they did beat the Nuggets when these teams last met a few months ago.

Denver do have a very strong recent record against Oklahoma City, but they failed to cover for the first time in ten games against them last time out. The Nuggets are also 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as the underdog and I do think Oklahoma City will just have a little too much on both ends of the court which helps them cover this mark.


Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pick: Only nine teams were invited to the NBA bubble from the Eastern Conference and most felt it was going to be a big ask for the Washington Wizards (24-42) to even force a 'Play In' situation for themselves. That was mainly down to the fact that some key players were not going to join their team in the short run to the PlayOffs and ultimately the Wizards have looked unlikely to trouble any team in the top eight.

Losing to the lowly Phoenix Suns is one thing, but on Sunday afternoon the Wizards were beaten by the Brooklyn Nets and now trail the current Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference by 7 games. To make matters even tougher on the Wizards, they become the first team that is going to be asked to play on back to back days in the bubble and they are going to be desperate to find a win.

That may make Washington a dangerous team, but they are without the likes of John Wall, Davis Bertans and Bradley Beal and most teams would find it difficult to plug those gaps. The team have struggled all season Defensively so when you miss those players who can take the scoring load on their shoulders it does gel together to become a very difficult situation all around.

Scott Brooks is not allowing his team to give up, but the Wizards have a very difficult set of remaining games and another defeat would virtually end their season. By hook or by crook Washington have to win out, but it is going to be a tough game in front of them when they meet the Indiana Pacers (40-26) who look to have recovered some health in the enforced break that was provided by the Coronavirus outbreak.

A win over the Philadelphia 76ers in their first game in the NBA bubble will give the Pacers some real confidence even if they are not considered a threat to the top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers will be looking to use that expectation to motivate them and they are a team that is perhaps better than the sum of their parts.

Indiana do have a team that can exploit the Defensive shortcomings in the Washington squad, while they are very strong on the other side of the court. Rebounding could be a problem for them when they get into the PlayOffs, but this is not a game where that should be an issue for the Pacers and putting that together makes them a strong favourite.

I have to respect the fact that the Wizards have a 7-2 record against the spread when playing the second of a back to back this season. However, those games were played with a deeper looking rotation than the one they are using in the NBA bubble.

The Wizards are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six games as the underdog including being covered in both in the bubble so far. Indiana are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against the Washington Wizards.

Knowing the PlayOff situation is beginning to slip away from them and having so many big name players missing is going to make it difficult for the Washington Wizards to motivate them in the remaining days in the NBA bubble.

Some of the players may already be thinking about returning to their families and a team like the Indiana Pacers could expose any lack of motivation in the Washington squad.

It is a big mark, but the Pacers can beat out a team on the second half of a back to back and I think they can cover here.


Tuesday 4th August
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Pick: We are already beginning to see some of the potential PlayOff Series coming together in the NBA bubble and that is especially the case in the Eastern Conference where the top eight teams are almost certainly set.

The Milwaukee Bucks are almost guaranteed to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and the teams below them in the standing are looking to position themselves to make sure they can avoid having to play them before the Eastern Conference Finals. A win on Tuesday would put the Boston Celtics (44-22) in a position to effectively wrap up a top three Seed and that would mean they can build up towards the potential Finals clash with the Bucks as players improve their fitness.

It is the last chance for the Miami Heat (42-25) to close in on the Boston Celtics in the spot above them in the standings, although making up the 2.5 game gap at this stage looks a long shot. The Heat are playing on a back to back having lost a close on to the Toronto Raptors on Monday and some inside the locker room may believe it is better to tank out the remainder of the regular season and fall as low as the Number 6 Seed if possible.

That is an unlikely mindset with a player like Jimmy Butler leading the Heat, but this is a team who have struggled playing the second half of a back to back all season. They invested a lot of effort into the Monday defeat to the Raptors while the Boston Celtics were resting and Miami are just 3-6-2 against the spread in that spot this season.

Miami have also struggled when put in the underdog spot and the Celtics have covered the mark in the last three against them including in both games played this season.

Both teams are 1-1 since joining the NBA bubble, and I do think both are very capable of having a deep PlayOff run. However the additional rest for the Celtics and perhaps the game meaning a little more to them could make the difference.

It does mean they can play the more intensive Defense which is a key to the outcome of the game and Boston should be fully concentrated on this game to make sure they are on the opposite side of the bracket to the Milwaukee Bucks. There isn't a game on deck which should take away the concentration of the Celtics and I think they will have enough to cover here.


Wednesday 5th August
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz Pick: There are always going to be conspiracy theories surrounding a new look schedule like the one the NBA had to put together, but the loudest voices insist the Memphis Grizzlies (32-36) are not the kind of team that the League would like to see in the First Round of the PlayOffs.

The Play In tournament was one aspect going against the Grizzlies, while the end of the 'regular season' in the NBA bubble looked a tough one and so far it has gone the way the NBA would like, at least according to those shouting conspiracy.

Memphis have lost all three games played in the bubble and are now only 1.5 games clear of the Portland Trail Blazers and with a host of other teams closing in too. At this point a 'Play In' may be the best bet for the Grizzlies, but securing the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference would at least mean the Number 9 ranked team would have to beat them twice to steal away their PlayOff spot.

To that end the Grizzlies need to start winning as it looks like both the Trail Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs have some momentum behind them. The upcoming games are anything but easy and the Grizzlies have lost Jaren Jackson Jr for the season, although they may not have a better opponent to face than the Utah Jazz (42-25) who have lost back to back games.

Losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers is much different than losing to the Memphis Grizzlies and the Utah Jazz have managed some Fourth Quarter scoring to overcome the New Orleans Pelicans in the bubble. There are some questions about the Jazz on both ends of the court which need to be answered before the PlayOffs begin, and motivation should remain high for a team who are still playing for Seeding in the Western Conference even though home court is no longer an issue.

There was always a concern for the Jazz that they would miss the scoring punch that was given to them by Bojan Bogdanovic who shut things down for the season prior to the resumption of play. It has proven to be the case so far, although Utah are facing one of the weaker teams in the bubble on Wednesday rather than those looking to go deep in the PlayOffs and that proved to be a winning situation last week when edging out the Pelicans.

If the Grizzlies make as slow a start as they have to each game in the bubble then it will be very difficult to peg back a Jazz team that is still strong Defensively. However, performing for the full 48 minutes has been on the mind of the players and with Ja Morant still performing as he has been, the Grizzlies will definitely believe they can make a good fist of things and at least end the losing run.

Utah just may not have enough scoring to really pull clear of this mark if the Grizzlies are making a strong start to this one. They deserve to be favourites because the Jazz have won two of the three meetings between these teams in the 2019/20 season, both straight up and against the spread, but things are very different for both teams in the NBA bubble and Utah have not played to a level which makes you think they can win easily.

The Jazz are just 2-13-2 against the spread in their last seventeen games as the favourite and it can't be ignored that the Memphis Grizzlies have been in competitive losses in the NBA bubble. None of the defeats have come by more than 10 points and the first two losses were by 5 points or fewer.

Add in the Utah sole win that either team has produced came by a couple of points and I do think the underdog is worth backing here.


Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Pick: Both of these teams are very much on course to enter the PlayOffs and depending on the way things go in the next few days there is every chance that this is a preview of one of the First Round Series in the Eastern Conference.

The Toronto Raptors (48-18) are the defending NBA Champions, but not many tipped them up to be capable of repeating having lost a couple of key performers in the off-season. None were more important than Kahwi Leonard, but the Raptors have rallied together and three wins in the NBA bubble over the Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat have given people pause for thought.

All of a sudden it is not solely about avoiding the Milwaukee Bucks for as long as possible with the Raptors arguably looking as strong as any going for the NBA Championship. They can effectively wrap up a top two Seed in the Conference with a win on Wednesday and the Raptors will then be able to rest bodies and minds before the PlayOffs begin, although the spot is one that concerns me between big games against the likes of the Lakers and Heat and then having the Boston Celtics on deck.

It could easily lead to a situation where the Orlando Magic (32-36) are overlooked by the Raptors having been beaten three times in the regular season already. The Magic do have a healthy lead over the Washington Wizards in the Number 9 spot in the Eastern Conference which would see them avoid a Play In situation, but Orlando will be looking to bounce back from their blow out loss on Tuesday to the Indiana Pacers.

Before that the Magic had won their first two games in the NBA bubble, but the surprising form shown by the Brooklyn Nets means Orlando have slipped into the Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They can pick and choose which of the top two teams they would want to face, but teams in their position just simply want to go into the PlayOffs with some momentum behind them.

A part of the reason for the blowout loss may have been the injury suffered by Jonathan Isaac in the previous game. After returning from a long lay off, Isaac looked to be playing really well and is a key Defensive piece for the Magic and the whole team may have started off feeling sorry for themselves in the defeat to the Pacers.

It has been made clear to the entire squad they will need to be a lot better to compete with either Milwaukee or Toronto in a potential First Round Series, but Orlando do produce enough Offensive output to be dangerous to those teams. The Magic will need that side of their game to be operating at close to full tilt if they are going to challenge a Toronto team who thrive on Defensive intensity and it will be a key to the outcome of each game these teams play in the remainder of the season.

You would expect Toronto to have enough Offensively to hurt the Magic considering the levels the latter have produced and now being without Jonathan Isaac, while the Raptors also have the energy around the boards to win the rebounding battle.

The Raptors have covered in the last five games between these teams and Orlando are 3-5-2 against the spread in ten games played in the second half of a back to back. 

Orlando are also 9-18-1 against the spread this season when playing a team with a winning record and I think the Raptors can make it four from four both straight up and against the number in this one.

MY PICKS: 30/07 Utah Jazz + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

30/07 Los Angeles Lakers-Los Angeles Clippers Under 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
31/07 Memphis Grizzlies + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
03/08 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/08 Indiana Pacers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
04/08 Boston Celtics - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
05/08 Memphis Grizzlies + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
05/08 Toronto Raptors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

NBA Update: 3-3, - 0.23 Units

NBA Picks 2017 (February 6-12)

The first week of February has been a solid start for the NBA Picks thanks to the Oklahoma City Thunder beating the Portland Trail Blazers at home on Sunday. It's only the start of the month though and I will be looking to build on the first week and try and put another solid one in the books.

We are fast approaching the All-Star Break and the Trade Deadline this month which is usually the moment when teams really begin to turn things on to get into solid Play Off shape.

However there are plenty of teams still trying to prove the executives do not need to tear down their rosters so there are big games through the week. Hopefully I can stay on the right side of the picks to put another winning week together and get this month into a solid position prior to the All-Star Game.


Monday 6th February
Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Two teams who are very much on course for a Play Off spot meet on Monday with the season goals now changing for both Atlanta and Utah who have a chance to finish in the top four of their respective Conferences. It isn't that long ago when it looked like both the Hawks and the Jazz would be changing their rosters with trade moves, but both look settled now and can make significant moves up the standings over the next couple of months.

It might be a flat atmosphere in The Philips Arena on Monday as the home town Falcons blew the Super Bowl in stunning fashion on Sunday night. The Atlanta Hawks have to try and pick up the crowd in this regular season game and they are playing well enough to do that, although they can't expect an easy day in the office when the Utah Jazz come to town.

The key to the game is likely to be on the boards where both Atlanta and Utah have been very strong in recent games. However I think the Hawks have just been playing a little better on the Defensive side of the court which is likely to give them an edge in the game and I think that will be an important aspect in this game and the outcome.

Utah can certainly stay in the game with the superior three point shooting, but that has been an area where the Hawks have shown some improvement. They are also better at home and this Jazz team have had their problems on the road where they are 3-8 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record.

The Jazz are just 2-5 against the spread when being set as a small underdog this season and I think the Atlanta Hawks will make a few stops in the Fourth Quarter which allows them to pull away for the win.


Phoenix Suns @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: It says a lot about how tight the bottom of the Western Conference is when the Number 8 Seeded team at this moment is only 6.5 games ahead of the Phoenix Suns who are at the bottom of the pile. It would still be a long shot for the Suns to make the Play Offs with a young roster who have struggled on the Defensive side of the court, but they have shown they can score enough points to give teams something to think about.

They head to the New Orleans Pelicans who remain an underachieving team for the season. The Pelicans have not been helped by Anthony Davis being banged up and lacking the consistency through the season, but they are still just 3.5 games behind the Play Off teams.

Neither team will be coming in with a lot of confidence as New Orleans have lost four in a row, while Phoenix have been beaten in six of their last seven. The Suns have simply not been able to stop teams Defensively which has seen them give up at least 112 points in each of those losses and 103 points in the one victory in that time at the Sacramento Kings.

I have little doubt that New Orleans are capable of exposing those holes in the Phoenix Defense, but the Suns score plenty too and the Pelicans have not been that strong on the Defensive side of the court either. However the Pelicans have ben guilty of playing up and down to the level of opponent they have faced and that has shown up in the stats as they are 6-10 against the spread as the favourite this season and 4-6 against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record.

Phoenix are hard to trust, but they did reward me last week when beating the Sacramento Kings as the underdog and I like them to keep this close. Both previous games between these teams have been decided by a combined two points, while Phoenix have won outright on their last two visits to New Orleans. I will back them with the points in this one.


Miami Heat @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: There is no hotter team in the NBA than the Miami Heat who have won ten games in a row to move away from the basement of the Eastern Conference and now look a threat to take one of the Play Off places. It has been a remarkable turnaround for the Heat who looked like an also-ran with a big chance for a strong lottery position just three weeks ago, and the team have to be given credit for a special run.

Sometimes these runs can hide the fact that a team hasn't played top level opponents and simply taken advantage of a good spot in their schedule. However that charge can't be levelled at the Miami Heat who have beaten the likes of Houston, Golden State, Chicago and Atlanta in that time.

One aspect that can be thrown at the run is that only two of the ten games have been on the road so the Miami Heat are set for a challenge as they embark on a four game road trip. They have a chance of opening up this road trip with a win though as they face the Minnesota Timberwolves who have lost three in a row and also will be without Zach Levine for the rest of the season.

Minnesota have continued to struggle Defensively and now losing a key Offensive piece will make things that much more difficult for them. The Miami Heat can take advantage of those Defensive issues, especially with their incredibly hot shooting from the three point line that they have been showing off in recent wins.

The Heat have a strong 7-4 record against the spread when visiting a team with a losing record this season and they are 4-0 against the spread in their last four in Minnesota. This is only a small number, but I am going to take the underdog Heat to continue their run through for at least one more game and I will back them here.


Tuesday 7th February
I was a little frustrated that the Phoenix Suns couldn't quite get the cover for the picks yesterday, but at least it wasn't a losing day. There are only three games scheduled in the NBA on Tuesday and I am going to back one big underdog to stay within the number.

Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: The Brooklyn Nets might have the inside track to the worst record in the NBA, but they might still be getting too many points when they visit the out of sorts Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets might only be half a game out of the Eastern Conference top eight, but this is a team that has lost seven games in a row which automatically makes this a big number for them to cover.

As bad as the Brooklyn Nets have been, they have tried their best to remain competitive and only one of their last eight losses has come by double digits. That has to be respected considering the level of opponent they have been playing and now going up against a Charlotte team that has not been on the same page as one another gives the Nets a chance to keep this one close at least.

It is a big ask for Brooklyn to snap their nine game losing run by beating Charlotte, but this is a team that has covered on their last five visits to the Hornets. The Nets are also 7-3 against the spread when set as the double digit underdog that is not getting as many as 14 points, while Charlotte are 1-2 against the spread as the double digit favourite this season. The Hornets are also just 5-6 against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record.

The key for Brooklyn is going to be winning the rebounding battle and then taking advantage of the Charlotte Defense which has allowed an average of 113 points per game over their last five games. The Nets have lost on the boards in their two games with Charlotte this season, but they have split those 1-1 and their loss came by 7 points. I will back Brooklyn with the points to keep this one close.


Wednesday 8th February
It has been a quiet start to the week in terms of picks made, but Wednesday feels like a very different day as there are four games I like. We are fast approaching the All Star Break for all of the teams in the NBA, which means we should also begin to see more and more move into Play Off mode, while the trade deadline continues to see players rumoured to be on the move.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers had to produce a huge effort on Monday as they had to go into Overtime to knock off the hot Washington Wizards on the road. It will take something to get going again just two days later against another strong home team in the Indiana Pacers who have put a few wins together.

The Cavaliers have a few key injuries in the rotation which is not going to help, while Kevin Love continues to be linked with a trade move to the New York Knicks in a bid for Cleveland to bring in Carmelo Anthony. Rumours that LeBron James is pushing for that move might have been described as 'trash' by the Superstar, but it can't be helping build team chemistry.

Cleveland have won three in a row, but they are facing an Indiana team who have won seven in a row and they are 20-6 at home this season. The Pacers have every chance of moving up the Eastern Conference standings as they have used their strong Defensive performances in recent games to spark their run.

Those Defensive schemes are going to be tested by the Cleveland Cavaliers who have played very well in recent weeks, while the Cavaliers also look like a team that will have the edge on the rebounding statistics. However the spot is not a great one for Cleveland having come off an emotional win over the Washington Wizards and heading to Oklahoma City on Thursday for another road game, and Indiana have to take advantage of that.

The Pacers have not been a great small underdog to back, but they have won twelve of their last thirteen home games in the regular season against Cleveland. Indiana are 6-0-1 against the spread in their last seven home games against Cleveland and I am going to take the points with the Pacers to exploit this spot in the Cavaliers schedule.


Denver Nuggets @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The Denver Nuggets are barely holding onto the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference and they must be looking forward to the All Star Break in a bid to get their team a little healthier. The Nuggets could be missing some key names as they embark on this road trip prior to the All-Star Break next week and they are running into the Atlanta Hawks first up, a team looking to bounce back from a pretty bad performance in the home loss to the Utah Jazz.

The Hawks simply couldn't make any stops in the loss to Jazz who shot an incredible 61% from the field and not many teams are going to be able to overcome that kind of Defensive 'effort'. Making stops has been a tough task for Atlanta in recent weeks and it is no surprise that they have had so many inconsistent results from day to day.

This is a real chance for Atlanta to bounce back as they are going up against a Denver Defensive unit who have not had it easy making stops themselves. The Nuggets are off a very strong performance when they held the Dallas Mavericks to just 87 points, but even with that effort behind them, the Nuggets have allowed an average of 112 points in their last five games.

Atlanta have the size to challenge Denver on the boards which is important for them to stay with the Nuggets in what could be a shoot out. Despite the poor effort in the loss to Utah, Atlanta have actually been pretty good at limiting the efficiency of teams shooting the ball against them and that can make the difference in this game.

The Hawks are 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve home games against Denver and I am looking for them to bounce back from a poor home defeat to cover in this one.


Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: The Utah Jazz might have some big decisions to make in the off-season with the likes of Gordon Hayward potentially moving on, but this current roster looks like one that can take the Jazz into the top four of the Western Conference. They have won their last three games behind some strong Defensive performances, but Utah can't overlook a New Orleans Pelicans team who have played up and down to the level of their opponents.

For much of the season you can say the Pelicans have been shorthanded and it looks like Tyreke Evans could miss out on Wednesday. The Pelicans snapped a run of four straight losses with a narrow win over the Phoenix Suns a couple of days ago, but this is a team that is looking like they are struggling to find the consistency to really push on for a place in the Western Conference Play Offs.

New Orleans look like they will be real players in the trade deadline as they look to bring in Jahlil Okafor from the Philadelphia 76ers to give Anthony Davis a little more help. Despite the presence of Davis, the Pelicans have struggled on the boards and that is an area the Utah Jazz will feel they have a real advantage.

One of the other issues for New Orleans in this game is the fact the have had issues on the Defensive side of the court in doing enough to stop teams. They did shut down Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker in their win over the Phoenix Suns, but still couldn't prevent them scoring 106 points and I think a superior Utah Jazz team will find gaps to exploit.

I have to respect New Orleans for being able to compete very well with the better teams in the NBA and actually owning a 9-6 record against the spread when hosting those with a winning record. However, Utah are 8-3 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points this season and I do think the Jazz can do just enough to win this game even though they are back in action on Thursday.


Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: The last few weeks have been difficult for the Toronto Raptors and has highlighted that this is a team that needs to be fully healthy if they have any chance of playing for the NBA Finals. I still think they are significantly short of the very best teams in the NBA, but the Toronto Raptors have arrested their recent slide as they look to make sure they finish with at least a top four finish in the Eastern Conference.

The Raptors have a very strong 9-2 record against the spread in their last eleven visits to the Minnesota Timberwolves and might be catching them at the right time. The Timberwolves have lost Zach Levine for the season and have lost four games in a row with the team continuing to struggle on the Defensive side of the court.

Now they have to face the back court of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan and it is going to very difficult for Minnesota to contain the Raptors in this one. With Levine missing for the remainder of the season, the Timberwolves may have some difficulties to find the scoring power to make up for the Defensive vulnerabilities they have continued to show throughout the course of the season.

Toronto should be the superior team on the rebounding stats, but Minnesota can keep things competitive with the better three point shooting they have displayed. Stopping the three point shots has been an issue for the Raptors, but overall you have to think Toronto can improve their recent record in Minnesota on Wednesday.

This is a game that could be close at times, but I think Toronto will just be able to make a few more key stops which allows them to pull away for the road win and cover.


Thursday 9th February
We all know the New York Knicks is a mess and it is clear the town is not big enough for both Phil Jackson and Carmelo Anthony. Instead of a duel at High Noon, Jackson has continued his veiled attack on Melo, while the latter continues to walk on the high road as tension increases ahead of the trade deadline.

Then you get the Charles Oakley situation where he is thrown out of Madison Square Garden surrounded by conflicting reports of being abusive towards James Dolan or whether he was targeted immediately.

It's a big mess and the Knicks continue to be the poster child for mediocrity and disfunction in the NBA. Good luck to Phil Jackson attracting big name Free Agents after his ridiculous treatment of Anthony and good luck to the Knicks in turning around what had looked a promising season. There is almost no doubt in my mind that a complete rebuild is needed around Kristaps Porzingis, but I am not sure I am putting that in the hands of Phil Jackson so a clear out in the Head Office is needed to.

I won't say much about Dolan because he has shown little sign of going anywhere so it doesn't matter what I think about him... He is simply not going any time soon.

It's been tough being a Knicks fan for twenty years, things just don't look like changing.

Houston Rockets @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: The Houston Rockets have been a little up and down since a long winning run came to an end, but this is the time of the season when the top teams begin to turn on the gas. Picking up the kind of form they want to take into the Play Offs in two months time is important and Houston have won consecutive games coming into this one.

Mike D'Antoni is the first to admit that Houston need to pick up their play on the Defensive side of the court if they are going to challenge for the NBA title this season. Only one of the last eight teams they have played have finished with fewer than 100 points and while the Rockets score plenty of points themselves, they won't want to get into a shoot out with the likes of Golden State or Cleveland over a best of seven series.

The Rockets are still with an outside shot of catching the top two teams in the Western Conference to improve their own Seeding but they can't afford to drop games like this one. The Charlotte Hornets snapped a seven game losing run with a narrow win over the Brooklyn Nets, but Steve Clifford was not happy with the Defensive effort and that is going to be tested by the high-powered Houston Offense.

It is clear Charlotte are having some issues at both ends of the court and that is highlighted by Kemba Walker's struggles, although he could get loose against this Houston Defense. I do expect the Houston Rockets are able to take advantage of that on their one step on the road before returning home and the Charlotte Hornets are just 1-4 against the spread when given less than 5 points as the underdog.

Cody Zeller could be back in the rotation for Charlotte and he has been a huge miss for the Hornets, but I think Houston come away with a win and a cover in this one. They are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven at Charlotte, but the Rockets have won three of their last four here and would have covered this number each time.


Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: I picked the Utah Jazz to win on the road on Wednesday and playing on a back to back might be an issue, but Utah were such big winners on the road at New Orleans that they were able to rest key players down the stretch in anticipation of this game. Playing at the Dallas Mavericks has been a challenge for Utah over the years and this is a Mavericks team arguably playing their best basketball of the season over the last month of the season, but I do like Utah to win and cover.

The Jazz won on their last visit to Dallas earlier this season and come into this one with strong showings at both the Offensive and Defensive side of the court. Utah have won four in a row heading into this game and they have scored at least 104 points in each of those games while not allowing more than 98 points in any of those too.

Dallas did suffer a heartbreaking loss a couple of nights ago against the Portland Trail Blazers but they had won four in a row at home before that which included knocking off the Cleveland Cavaliers. As impressive as that is, Dallas are still going to be shorthanded for this game and that only increases the pressure on their patched up roster against a team that is playing right near the top of their game.

I would expect the size of the Jazz to dominate the boards and that allows them to have more opportunities to score when Defenses break down and I have to respect the fact that Utah have improved to 8-2 against the spread when favoured by less than 4 points this season. At the same time Dallas are just 4-9 against the spread when given less than 4 points as the underdog and I think Utah are playing at a very good level and will be too good on the day.

Utah are just 3-9-1 against the spread in their last thirteen against Dallas, but I will look for them to sweep the series against the Mavericks this season.


Friday 10th February
Yesterday should have been a sweep for the picks as Utah led the Dallas Mavericks by 21 points halfway through the Third Quarter. Their poor finish to the Fourth Quarter when up by 4 proved to be the difference maker and I have to say I was a little irritated that that winner kind of folded away.

I am still up for the week, but I am looking to kick on over the next three days to conclude this week and get this month into a decent position prior to the All-Star Game.

Golden State Warriors @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies have been one of the most improved teams over the last couple of months and are in a position to challenge for a top four spot in the Western Conference. They also hold two wins over the Golden State Warriors already in the regular season, although it might be difficult to make that three in a row as they look like potentially being shorthanded.

This might also feel like a good time to take on the Warriors even if the latter have the best record in the NBA. Golden State are on a back to back and tomorrow they take on the Oklahoma City Thunder on the road, Kevin Durant's first trip back to face his former team and the kind of game that the entire Warriors squad will be looking to win for their new teammate.

In normal circumstances it would be understandable to think the Warriors overlook this game, but losing twice to the Grizzlies already has to burn away at them. The Warriors are well rested having needed to play once in the last six days which should mean the back to back is not a big concern for them, but this is a Grizzlies team who have gone back to the 'Grind City' methods which made them just an awkward team to oppose for many seasons.

Over the last week Memphis have crushed the San Antonio Spurs here so they are a dangerous team, but I do think there will be plenty of motivation for the Golden State Warriors. The three point shooting of the Warriors is going to be a key factor in this game as they continue to produce big numbers from beyond the arc and that is the one area Defensively that the Grizzlies are looking to improve.

This is a big number, but Golden State are 5-3 against the spread when visiting a team with a winning record and I am going to back the Warriors to cover.


Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pick: Both the Washington Wizards and Indiana Pacers had proud winning streaks ended by the Cleveland Cavaliers this week although the Indiana defeat was definitely the poorer performances of the two. Both are very much trending to be in a position to end with a very strong finish in the Eastern Conference Play Off picture, and games like this could be huge in deciding those positions come the end of the season.

Indiana had won seven in a row and led the Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points after the First Quarter a couple of days ago, but they were heavily outscored in the second half. That might have given the Pacers food for thought but they do head into this one having won three road games in a row.

It was a seventeen game winning run at home that came to an end for the Washington Wizards when beaten by Cleveland earlier this week. They didn't play well in winning at the Brooklyn Nets a couple of nights ago, but the Wizards were back to winning ways and will be confident they can start a new winning streak at home beginning with this game.

Both teams have shown they can make key stops on the Defensive side of the court which is important for them. However I do think Washington may have the edge on the rebounding statistics which may offer up more second chance opportunities to find a way to pull clear of Indiana.

Washington did beat Indiana by 6 points here at the end of December and the Pacers are just 2-4 against the spread when visiting a team with a winning record. Indiana are also 7-10 against the spread when set as the underdog of less than 6 points this season and Washington are 14-5 against the spread as the favourite of less than 6 points. It should be noted that Indiana have a strong record against the spread in recent games in Washington, but I like the Wizards to win and cover on Friday.


Atlanta Hawks @ Sacramento Kings Pick: The Atlanta Hawks are struggling for some consistency as they head towards the All-Star Game, but they have every chance of winning their fourth game in six as they get set to take on the Sacramento Kings. DeMarcus Cousins is set to return from a one game suspension, but the Kings have lost some key players to injury which may leave them shorthanded for this one.

It is hard to know which Kings team will turn up on any given day considering they have beaten the likes of the Golden State Warriors and the Boston Celtics in recent games, but also lost to the Chicago Bulls and Phoenix Suns around those wins. Sacramento have been able to stay in games thanks to their size and being able to dominate the boards, but that won't be easy for them in this one with Dwight Howard on the other side of the court to battle Cousins.

Neither team is really playing that well Defensively which does make this a harder game to call, but I do think Atlanta have the better rotation and can make that count. Atlanta have enjoyed the match up which has seen them go 14-3 against the spread in their last seventeen games against Sacramento and they are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games here.

Add in the fact that Sacramento are just 1-6 against the spread as the underdog of less than 3 points this season and I am looking to back the Hawks to earn another win and cover here. The Hawks were beaten in their last visit to this Arena, but I will look for them to bounce back and cover this number in a win on Friday.


Saturday 11th February
I can only have a chuckle to myself that on back to back days I could have really been putting in some solid wins if only teams had held onto big leads. Both the Utah Jazz and now the Atlanta Hawks have gone into their last two games with a double digit lead going into the Fourth Quarter and being asked to cover small numbers.

Both times they have fallen apart in the Fourth Quarter and instead of being in a really strong position for the week, I remain with a small positive. This is one of those weeks where even being in the positive doesn't make me feel better as it just takes a couple of bad breaks to suddenly have a losing week when I should really be at least three units further in a positive position.

At least the picks looked right and it is bad play/luck that has cost me rather than picking a team that has been blown out by half time.

Time is an issue for me today so I am adding the two picks from the games to be played tonight below in the 'MY PICKS' section.

MY PICKS: 06/02 Atlanta Hawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
06/02 Phoenix Suns + 5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
06/02 Miami Heat + 1 Point @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
07/02 Brooklyn Nets + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
08/02 Indiana Pacers + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
08/02 Atlanta Hawks - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
08/02 Utah Jazz - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
08/02 Toronto Raptors - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
09/02 Houston Rockets - 4 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
09/02 Utah Jazz - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
10/02 Golden State Warriors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
10/02 Washington Wizards - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
10/02 Atlanta Hawks - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
11/02 Golden State Warriors - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
11/02 Dallas Mavericks - 6 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)

February 6-12 Update: 8-5-2, + 2.41 Units
February 1-5 Final: 5-3, + 1.59 Units

February Update: 5-3, + 1.59 Units
January Final: 26-28-1, - 4 Units
December Final: 19-23, - 5.51 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Season 2017: 58-62-2, - 8.64 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units