NFL Week 5 Picks 2022 (October 6-10)

A cold has laid me low for a few days, but I am going to be adding the selections for Week 5 of the NFL season here.

Last week saw one winner from one selection, but I do feel I left plenty of meat on the table.

Hopefully that is not something to regret and, ultimately, I will take a winning week every week over a losing one. Three in a row have been produced, let's hope it is the start of number four.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos Pick: Two teams who have traded for Quarter Backs who have previously played, and in one case won, a Super Bowl were hoping that the upgrade in the most important position in the NFL would be a huge spark for the 2022 season. The Denver Broncos (2-2) and the Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) have been a disappointment to this point, while injuries in Week 4 have hurt their chances of turning things around even with barely a quarter of the season in the books.

The records is perhaps a little flattering for the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts with some narrow wins earned, although both sets of players would likely point out a couple of very unfortunate losses/ties that have already been recorded.

No matter how you frame the start of the season, you cannot ignore the fact that neither Russell Wilson of the Broncos nor Matt Ryan of the Colts has been able to provide an Offensive spark in the manner their respective teams would have hoped.

Playing on a short week is far from ideal for either team when you think of the kind of injuries suffered on both sides of the ball- Indianapolis are going to be touch and go as far as Jonathan Taylor is concerned, while Shaquille Leonard has to be considered unlikely; on the other side, Denver lost their starting Running Back Javonte Williams and have also placed Randy Gregory on the Injured List.

It does not make for good reading for either team, especially for Indianapolis who may have felt that Jonathan Taylor could finally get his 2022 season underway against a struggling Broncos Defensive Line. This has been a very poor start for Taylor when it comes to running the ball considering the standards he has set in his time in the NFL, while the Colts are reliant on being able to push the ball on the ground to open up the playbook for the Quarter Back.

Even without Taylor, assuming he does miss out, I do think the Indianapolis Colts will be looking to pound the rock and try and put the Offense in third and manageable spots. That will be important for Matt Ryan who will be dealing with Offensive Line problems if left in third and long, even with Randy Gregory out of the line up for Denver.

The Broncos Secondary has also played pretty well and they have kept Denver competitive in games, which does bode well against the Colts on Thursday Night Football.

A bigger question for Denver is whether Russell Wilson can rediscover some of the form that saw him play in two Super Bowls for the Seattle Seahawks (including beating the Denver Broncos). His time at Seattle ended with many believing the Offensive Line and playmakers had left Russell Wilson short of the talent he needed on both sides of the ball, but the banged up Quarter Back is being asked some questions now.

Too many Sacks have already been absorbed, but the Colts have not really been able to generate the pressure they would have liked up front and that has to be highly encouraging for Russell Wilson.

Now they are without Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon has to show the Coaching staff that his early ball security issues are not going to be hindering the team and the veteran himself. This is a difficult Colts team to run upon consistently, but Wilson can move the ball with his own legs and short passes may be used to keep the Broncos in front of the chains.

Drops haven't helped the Wilson passing numbers, but he at least had some success against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4, even in the losing effort.

Regardless, it feels like it is going to be a close game with very little between them on the night.

In a usual time slot, I think this would be really close, but the Thursday Night Football slot definitely gives a lean towards the Broncos. There is no doubting that Denver have long been tough to play at Mile High and the two key players likely to sit out for Indianapolis- Taylor and Leonard- hurt them on both sides of the ball.

Travelling through time zones from East to West has been tough for teams on the short week too- those who have been forced to travel through two timezones, like Indianapolis, are 2-12-1 against the spread on Thursday Night Football.

Only the Green Bay Packers have proved they can handle that situation and I do think the Denver Broncos are the slightly stronger team all around.

Elite Quarter Backs are not likely to suffer too many back to back defeats, but Russell Wilson has been very good at bouncing back from the spot and especially against the spread. He is a little banged up, but I think he is playing with more support than Matt Ryan right now and I think Russell Wilson helps Denver improve their 11-4 record against the spread in their last fifteen games when playing on Thursday Night.

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The NFL international series has been a success, but London has tended to be given the short end of the stick when it comes to the quality of teams that have been sent over for the regular season.

Games have looked pretty good on paper, but there has never been one that features two teams that hold a winning record... Until now.

The New York Giants (3-1) are something of a surprise in the NFC East, a Division full of surprises with three of the four teams having won at least three games already this season. Big Blue will always have plenty of supporters, but the big excitement in London is finally having the Green Bay Packers (3-1) becoming the final of the thirty-two teams to play on these shores.

Aaron Rodgers is plenty excited to be playing in London, although I am not sure his views are shared by the Coaching staff with this feeling like an unfamiliar set of circumstances in which to prepare for an important game. After just about edging out the New England Patriots in Week 4, the Packers are still not quite operating at full tilt and it does make it very difficult to back them to cover such a big spread.

However, I do think they match up pretty well with the New York Giants who have struggled to stop the run all season- I expect plenty of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon with the Packers Offensive Line looking healthy and having graded the road in run blocking very efficiently.

Both Running Backs should pound the ball with success and I think both are also capable safety blankets for Aaron Rodgers when it comes to throwing the ball. Keeping the reigning MVP in third and manageable will make things that much easier for the Packers to keep the chains moving and Aaron Rodgers should have time in the pocket to target his Receiving corps, one that is still trying to show they can find the level that their Quarter Back would be expecting.

It won't just be the Packers looking to pound the rock- Saquon Barkley has been a huge part of the early New York Giants successes and it has been a struggle for the Green Bay Defensive Line to clamp down on the run. Even in winning games against the Chicago Bears, the Packers were hammered on the ground and only a big lead forced the Bears away from the gameplan.

I do think Barkley will have success behind Daniel Jones, who has been cleared at Quarter Back and is set to start in London. The movement of Jones has been key for New York and the big question will be whether he has the same confidence in his ankle from pre-injury to get away from the pass rush when he does drop back and keep the ball rather than handing off to Barkley.

Daniel Jones is blessed with even less support in the Receiving areas compared with Aaron Rodgers and the New York Quarter Back is simply not as good as Rodgers either. His passing numbers have been poor all season and Daniel Jones could be faced with a huge amount of pass rush pressure whenever the Giants are behind the chains and I do think this is going to be the difference on the day.

Where Aaron Rodgers can make some key throws, Daniel Jones may not and the Giants may have to move away from the run if they fall behind, as the Chicago Bears were forced to do in Week 2.

The Giants have experienced the trip to London before and they may be better placed in that regard, but I think the Green Bay Packers will give their fans across the pond something to celebrate. The Packers have played very well against Conference opponents and my belief is that they can control the clock with a little more balance Offensively and that should see them pull clear in the second half.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: There has been a huge amount of parity in the NFL through the first four weeks of the season and the AFC South is no different to so many Divisions in the League. The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) are leading the way in the South, and they are 1-0 in the Division, but they have struggled to impose themselves against their biggest rivals when they are not called the Indianapolis Colts.

The Houston Texans (0-3-1) are the only team in the NFL without a victory this season, but they have won eight in a row against the Jacksonville Jaguars and that will give them confidence. Lovie Smith will be happy with the Defensive unit that has kept the Texans competitive, but he will need more from the Offense when they have the ball in their hands if Houston are going to get back in touch with the rest of the Division.

Davis Mills is the current Quarter Back, but he has not really been able to show that he can take the Texans forward and you have to imagine a First Round Pick will be used on a signal-caller next season. No team is going to be thinking about tanking after just four weeks, but the Texans are short of the quality of many others in the NFL and they are going to be up against a Jacksonville Defensive unit that has played with confidence early in the season.

The Jaguars Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run and they will be looking to force Davis Mills to beat them through the air- in the last three games, the Jaguars have looked like a team that can contain things up front and the confidence from playing as well as they did against the Philadelphia Eagles will put Jacksonville in a strong mental state for this Divisional challenge.

Clamping down on the run brings a powerful Jaguars pass rush into play and they can rattle Davis Mills into making a mistake or two that can give the home team the edge.

With limited support in the passing game, Davis Mills may not be able to score a lot of points against this solid looking Jacksonville Defensive unit and will certainly give Trevor Lawrence and the Offense a chance to win and cover.

Trevor Lawrence looks much improved as a passer this season after going through a few rookie troubles and I think he will benefit from a bit more success that James Robinson and Travis Etienne are likely to have running the ball. The Jaguars have not been able to establish the run as efficiently as they would have liked this season, but this is a big opportunity for both Running Backs to get going and at least put Jacksonville in third and manageable spots.

The Offensive Line has looked after Trevor Lawrence for the most part this season and I do think the Quarter Back will bounce back from his personal mistakes in the loss to the Eagles as the team slipped back to 2-2.

Houston's Secondary have produced some decent numbers, but some of that is down to the fact that teams have been able to have a lot of success running at them. Building leads means teams will also focus on the ground game and I think the Jacksonville Jaguars can snap their losing run to the Houston Texans and cover the big spread.

You cannot ignore the fact that the Jaguars have been a poor team to back on the spreads in recent years, but the Texans are 6-9 against the spread as the road underdog in their last fifteen in that spot. They will be confident heading to this part of Florida with the run of wins behind them, but the Jacksonville Jaguars look a much better team than last season and they did crush the Colts at home in their sole game here.

There will be a key drive or two in the Fourth Quarter to determine the outcome of this one, but I do think the Jaguars are strong enough on both sides of the ball to enforce their will on the game and come through with a cover.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: A few weeks ago Tom Brady left the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) and the reason given to the media was that he was dealing with something personal. Most assumed he was filming 'The Masked Singer' but reports over the last week suggest that Tom Brady is about to have to go through a divorce after choosing to return to Football following a statement that said he was retiring.

That has not sat well with Gisele Bundchen, but Tom Brady will be trying to compartmentalise his feelings and focus on the game as the Buccaneers look to bounce back from consecutive losses. This is not a familiar position for Tom Brady to be playing in and he has only once lost three games in a row so it may not be the best time for the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) to visit their NFC South Divisional rivals.

The top of the Division is on the line with the winner taking over top spot, but the Falcons are going to have to make do without the likes of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. Those absences are massive on the Offensive side of the ball and I do think Atlanta are going to have a tough time moving the ball with any consistency in this one.

You have to feel that Patterson would have been able to help the Falcons establish the run considering how well the Offensive Line have played and one or two issues the Buccaneers Defensive Line have had in clamping down on the run. However, without Cordarrelle Patterson, I do think the Falcons are going to have a much more difficult time and it also puts pressure on Marcus Mariota who may not be able to employ the usual schemes to his play at Quarter Back.

Marcus Mariota has struggled to throw the ball with consistency all season and losing Kyle Pitts only hurts all the more, while the Atlanta Offensive Line have not been able to give the Quarter Back as much time as he would have liked in the pocket. The Tampa Bay pass rush has been strong and I do think Mariota and the Falcons will need a few breaks to go their way to keep the scoring ticking over.

Back to back losses to the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs will have hurt the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but injuries are beginning to clear up and I do think this is a better team than what we have seen so far.

The Buccaneers do want to find a way to establish the run as their injury hit Offensive Line continues to learn on the job, but their success will mainly come down to the arm of Tom Brady. While the Quarter Back has not been as happy as he could be, Brady has put some solid passing numbers together and he is facing a Falcons Secondary which will find it difficult to slow down all of the options that Tom Brady has to throw for.

With a limited pass rush, Tom Brady should have plenty of time in the pocket to hit his Receivers down the field and I do think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can continue their dominance of the Falcons.

The last three wins for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been by 13 or more points and I do think the home team are going to want to show they are still amongst the elite of the NFC. Facing the injury hit Falcons comes at a good time and Brady has a very strong record against the spread when playing off back to back losses.

It is a very, very big spread, but I do think the Buccaneers will find the scoring power to cover.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: The 3-0 start to the season feels a long way behind the Miami Dolphins (3-1) after the criticism that was hurled at the franchise for their poor decision to start Tua Tagovailoa in Week 4. Days earlier he had looked to have suffered a concussion, but Tagovailoa then took a huge hit in the defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals and the Quarter Back is likely going to be on the sidelines for a while.

Teddy Bridgewater came in for the starter ten days ago, and he will be getting the call at Quarter Back in Week 5 as the Dolphins look to get back on track in their third Divisional game of the season. Wins over the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will have given the Miami Dolphins confidence early in the season, but the injury to Tua Tagovailoa has just soured the mood around the team.

It doesn't help that Miami have the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Xavien Howard banged up- Howard is set to miss out, while Waddle and Hill are both Questionable to play and that leaves the Miami Dolphins short.

All things considered, it certainly makes Miami difficult to trust as the road favourite against the New York Jets (2-2) who split their four games against the AFC North. Zach Wilson was back in the victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4 and the Quarter Back could have a very good game in Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins banged up Secondary.

The Jets should be capable of establishing the run and that should put Zach Wilson in a strong position in front of the chains. With the Dolphins Secondary struggling to make stops, Wilson has the kind of Receiving corps that should be able to win their battles and I do think the Jets will be able to move the chains and make this a very competitive game as the home underdog.

I do think Miami will be able to move the chains with Teddy Bridgewater at Quarter Back, one of the better backups in the NFL, although it is a concern that both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could be missing. The pressure has been on the Quarter Back, whoever starts, because the Miami Offensive Line has not really been able to open up the holes to establish the run and are unlikely to have much more success here.

Protection has been a slight issue too and I do think the Jets will feel they can get to Teddy Bridgewater if they can keep Miami in obvious passing downs.

You can't take anything away from the Receivers who can make Miami very dangerous, but I do think the New York Jets can do enough on both sides of the ball to keep this one close.

The Dolphins have won four in a row against the New York Jets and they are a team who have the Offensive output that can take a game away from an opponent, but I do think the Jets Defensive unit are good enough to keep this one close. As long as Zach Wilson doesn't make the mistakes to allow Miami to pull clear, I do think there are a few holes in the Secondary that the home team can exploit and they may be receiving enough points for the cover.

New York are a team who have not been one to back at the window, but this looks a good opportunity for them to back up the win over Pittsburgh by keeping this one competitive and staying within the spread.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carolina Panthers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

College Football Week 6 Picks 2021 (October 9th)

Another week is in the College Football books and there are more changes to the top of the Rankings, although none of the schools pushing for the College Football PlayOffs will feel their race has been run right now.

Two losses won't be good enough, so some teams are already in trouble and with little room for another error, but some of the leading teams are feeling good about themselves. One of the most disappointing teams have been the Clemson Tigers and I am not sure there is a fit replacement for them from the ACC to take what has been an annual place for the Tigers in the PlayOffs.

It means a door is open to another team, but I am not sure which of the other Power 5 Conferences will be offering their Champion into the PlayOff, at least not right now. The Cincinnati Bearcats may be the first from outside that group and Notre Dame that can earn their spot in the PlayOffs, but they cannot afford any slip and have to be very dominant.

Wins over Indiana and the Fighting Irish don't have the same kind of impact as they may have done before the season was played out, but the Bearcats deserve to be spoken about with the elite of College Football.

It is only Week 6 coming up so there are more twists and turns to come.

The Picks have had a run of three winning weeks in succession come to an end, and there is room for improvement. I am hoping the selections from this week can keep the positive momentum going.

South Carolina Gamecocks @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: The SEC has long been setting the standards in College Football and the Conference may become even stronger as soon as the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns join the party. This season the Conference looks like it could be producing the two leading contenders to win the National Championship through the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs and those two teams are on a collision course in the SEC Championship Game in December.

There are a couple of other teams that will be looking to spoil that party, but those are not the Tennessee Volunteers (3-2) and the South Carolina Gamecocks (3-2). The Volunteers are 1-1 in the SEC this season, but the South Carolina Gamecocks have dropped both Conference games played and they are considered a big underdog in this game too.

Some of that may be down to the huge win Tennessee put together against the Missouri Tigers in Week 5 and another win would mean the Volunteers are just a couple more wins away from securing a spot in a Bowl Game. Both of these teams have first year Head Coaches and so it was largely seen as a transitional season for the Volunteers and Gamecocks, and both teams also had losing records in 2021, although the Gamecocks have surpassed the two wins last season and Tennessee have matched the three wins they had in 2020.

Momentum is with the Volunteers who look like they may match up with the South Carolina Defensive unit in a stronger way than the Gamecocks will do when dealing with Tennessee's Defensive unit.

That could make all the difference on the day between these Divisional rivals as they bid to finish as high up the SEC East standings as possible. South Carolina will at least point to the fact that the two defeats they have had this season have come against the Georgia Bulldogs and Kentucky Wildcats, two teams with 5-0 records overall, but much is going to depend on how they handle the strong Tennessee Offensive Line in determining whether they can win this one.

The Volunteers have been able to run the ball with considerable success throughout this season and, while there are bigger tests likely to come, they will feel they can bully a South Carolina Defensive Line which has struggled. Having a dual-threat Quarter Back should only help Tennessee, while they have been effective as a team when it comes to the ground game.

As the competition has increased in level, South Carolina have struggled to clamp down on the run and they have allowed 5.3 yards per carry across their last three games. With that in mind, it feels like the Volunteers are going to have some huge successes on the ground which should open the passing lanes for Hendon Hooker who has only thrown a single Interception so far this season.

Tennessee should be able to move the ball with considerable success and so it will be up to the Gamecocks to try and keep up on the scoreboard. That will be far from easy with the Volunteers playing some strong football on this side of the board and the key for the Tennessee Defensive unit has been an ability to make opponents one-dimensional.

At the start of the season, the feeling was that the Volunteers Defensive Line would be the power of this side of the ball and it has proven to be the case so far. They have been able to clamp down on the run and the South Carolina Gamecocks have struggled for consistency on the ground so the battle in the trenches could be key to the outcome of the game.

It will mean the pressure is on Luky Doty at Quarter Back who has 3 Touchdown passes with a single Interception since returning from an injury. His Offensive Line will be under pressure from the pass rush that Tennessee are likely to generate and Doty will be throwing into a Secondary that has been able to turn the ball over and who don't bite on throws to give up big plays.

The Volunteers have won the last two between these schools on a football field and I do think they are capable of winning and covering the spread here. The underdog has had considerable success in the series, but South Carolina are just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games when given points.

Tennessee are a work in progress and it will take Josh Heupel some time to really turn the school around having had one winning season in the last four played. However, he has them on the right track and the Head Coach can lean on the Offensive and Defensive Line to display their strength and move the Volunteers in a position to cover this big mark.

Maryland Terrapins @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: There four teams in the Big Ten East Division who have 2-0 records in the Conference and one of those is the Ohio State Buckeyes (4-1). However, the Buckeyes are the only one of those four teams that has a loss on the record and the feeling is that they will need to run the table and win the Big Ten Championship Game if they are going to earn enough votes to return to the College Football PlayOff.

For some teams that pressure may be too much to deal with, but the Buckeyes feel they are still the team to beat in the Conference and they have won three in a row since the defeat to the Oregon Ducks. The Buckeyes look to be getting stronger and it may be a bad time for the Maryland Terrapins (4-1) to face Ohio State having been embarrassed at home by the Iowa Hawkeyes in Week 5.

That was a huge step up from the first four opponents faced by the Terrapins and now they have to go on the road to take on an Ohio State team that can be fully focused with a Bye Week coming up.

Taulia Tagovailoa, Tua's younger brother, is coming off a really difficult outing and he is not going to be helped by the fact that Maryland have lost Dontay Demus for the season too. Last week the Quarter Back was Intercepted five times by the tough Hawkeyes Defensive unit and the challenge is no easier for Taulia Tagovailoa in Week 6.

There have been one or two holes in the Ohio State Secondary which have shown up as teams have been forced to throw to try and keep up on the scoreboard and that has to be a little encouraging to Tagovailoa and the Maryland Offensive unit. However, the problem is making sure there is a balance Offensively that keeps teams guessing when it comes to the play-calling, but that may be more difficult to maintain considering how strong the Buckeyes have been on the Defensive Line.

Stopping the run and making Tualia Tagovailoa have to throw the ball could present problems with the Buckeyes Secondary able to create big turnovers. The Ohio State pass rush has all been a big problem for opponents in recent games and having obvious passing Down and distance will make it very difficult for the Terrapins to sustain drives and punch in Touchdowns rather than having to settle for Field Goals or Punts.

Creating short fields through turnovers should also be something the Ohio State Buckeyes are aiming to do and they can then look to an improving Offense to underline their dominance.

CJ Stroud returned at Quarter Back in Week 5 and had a big game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights and he will feel he can build on a five Touchdown performance. The Maryland Defensive Line has played well against the run, but the Buckeyes Offensive Line will look to bully them in the trenches and the feeling is that they will help Ohio State find a balance Offensively that will be missing for Maryland.

Their young Quarter Back will also be throwing into a Secondary that allowed Iowa to rack up almost 300 passing yards last week and the Hawkeyes are not as strong in this aspect of their Offense as Ohio State. I expect that to show up here against a Maryland Secondary that has allowed over 250 passing yards on average in their last three games.

The Terrapins have been able to generate pass rush pressure, which is important, but if the Buckeyes are able to run the ball as well as they can, I expect that pass rush to be eased. It should mean CJ Stroud has time to make his plays and I would fully support the quality of the Ohio State Receivers to win the day on the outside over the Maryland Defensive Backs.

I hate looking at a spread and being completely convinced the favourite is being underestimated, but I do feel that with the Ohio State Buckeyes. These schools have met six times since Maryland joined the Big Ten and it is the Buckeyes who have won all six by an average of 36 points per game, while the three wins at home have come by an average of 42 points per game.

Maryland should be better Offensively than they were in the Week 5 blowout against Iowa, but Ohio State will be looking to match that kind of effort with a Bye Week in front of them. The Buckeyes may not have been a great home favourite to back, but they have dominated this opponent and Maryland are 2-8 against the spread in their last ten as the road underdog.

Covering won't be easy, but Ohio State should be able to find a way to create extra possessions and that should see them have every chance of doing so. CJ Stroud should be able to pick up from where he left off in Week 5 and I think the Buckeyes will once again remind the rest of the Big Ten that they are still the team to beat.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: Plenty of people would have had the popcorn ready in Week 5 when the Mississippi Rebels (3-1) visited the Alabama Crimson Tide, including Head Coach Lane Kiffin. However, a poor first half proved to be costly for the Rebels who lost their unbeaten record and who will now be focusing on improving on the five wins earned in Kiffin's first season in charge in Oxford.

The Rebels will be looking to bounce back against the Arkansas Razorbacks (4-1) who also saw their unbeaten run come to an end in Week 5. Like Mississippi, the Razorbacks were taking on one of the favourites to win the SEC Championship and they were blown out by the Georgia Bulldogs without getting on the scoreboard.

Even then, Head Coach Sam Pittman has to be really happy with what he has seen from the Razorbacks in his second season here. They have already surpassed the three wins earned in 2020 and the Head Coach will be targeting the most wins in a single season since 2016, while also seeing Arkansas return to a Bowl Game for the first time since then too.

Arkansas have already secured two upset wins in 2021, but playing in the SEC is likely going to see them needing to earn a couple more if they are going to earn the six wins needed to secure a Bowl spot. You would not rule out the Razorbacks from getting those wins, especially with the way they have played on both sides of the ball.

The key for the Razorbacks is to cement the ground game and use that to open up the rest of the playbook, but it won't be easy to do that against the Mississippi Rebels. Arkansas struggled to impose themselves against the Georgie Bulldogs and the Rebels have a Defensive unit which has shown signs of being much stronger than the one they ran out onto the field in 2020.

The Rebels did struggle to stop the Crimson Tide on the ground, but they will feel this is a more winnable match up for them in the trenches. Slowing down the Razorbacks by clamping down on the run will give Mississippi a real edge on this side of the ball, especially as it will allow them to unleash a pass rush that can get the better of the Razorbacks Offensive Line which has had some issues in pass protection.

I do think the Arkansas Razorbacks will have some success Offensively and certainly more than they had in Week 5 against the powerful Georgia Bulldogs, but at the same time the Defensive unit is going to have a tough time shutting down the Rebels when they have the ball. Mississippi had a hard time in Week 5, but they have been very productive on this side of the ball under Lane Kiffin and I expect them to bounce back.

While the Arkansas Razorbacks may struggle to impose the run, Mississippi's Offensive Line have been able to open some big holes up front and they are going up against a Defensive Line which has allowed 4.8 yards per carry on average in their last three games. Last season the Razorbacks did beat Mississippi, but they were crushed on the ground in the win and establishing the run here should open things up for Quarter Back Matt Corral.

Being unable to stop the run has meant the Arkansas Secondary has not really been giving up big numbers in recent games, but the schemes that Lane Kiffin can put together makes the Rebels dangerous. Matt Corral is also capable of making quick, short throws and then looking for his Receivers to make plays for him and I do think he will have enough time to read the field.

The Razorbacks have not been able to get the same kind of pass rush pressure as Mississippi and I do think the latter will have more success moving the ball. The Rebels have revenge on their mind after the loss to Arkansas last season and Lane Kiffin has a decent record when playing off a straight up loss too.

I like where Arkansas have been this season, but the home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series between these teams. Mississippi are 5-1-1 against the spread in their last seven as the home favourite and I do think their superiority in the trenches on both sides of the ball may give the Rebels enough of an edge to win this one by around a Touchdown in Week 6 as they get back on track.

Vanderbilt Commodores @ Florida Gators Pick: When a team is averaging a little over 31 points per game, it is very difficult to back them to cover a monster spread like the one that is in front of the Florida Gators (3-2). However, it says plenty about the Vanderbilt Commodores (2-3), even though the visitors are coming in off an important win.

The narrow win over the Connecticut Huskies last week will have given the Vanderbilt Commodores a shot in the arm, but the blowout loss to the Georgia Bulldogs isn't far from the memory bank. Giving up 62 points in a game in which they failed to score shows the level that needs to be made up in the SEC East, although the Commodores will also appreciate that the Bulldogs may be the stand out team in the entire Conference, let alone the Division.

This time they are facing the Florida Gators who are off a defeat to the Kentucky Wildcats which has ended their realistic hopes of making the SEC Championship Game. However, there is plenty of motivation for Dan Mullen and his team who won eight games in 2020 and this is a big chance for Florida to get the Offensive unit back on track.

With a huge spread like this one, Vanderbilt's Offensive output is likely to be the key in covering, but they have struggled for any kind of consistency on this side of the ball. That is underlined by Quarter Back Ken Seals who has thrown 5 Touchdown passes to go with 5 Interceptions, while the Offensive Line has not really been able to open holes for the run game to be established.

The Commodores had some success against the Stanford Cardinal, but they only produced 53 yards on the ground against the Georgia Bulldogs. Now they have to face a Florida Defensive Line which has given up just 4 yards per carry on average in their last three games and that despite facing the Alabama Crimson Tide in the run.

It is highly encouraging for the Gators and they should be able to restrict the Commodores and force Ken Seals to try and beat them through the air. It is an area that the Gators Secondary should be able to win with the struggles that Seals has had all season and I do think Florida can potentially offer up a couple of turnovers to give their Offensive unit the extra possessions they are likely going to need to cover a number such as this one.

This looks the perfect opportunity for Florida to get their entire Offensive unit back on track after scoring just 13 points in the defeat to the Kentucky Wildcats. They should have considerable balance on this side of the ball and it is almost impossible to believe Vanderbilt's Defensive Line will be able to slow down the Gators on the ground considering what we have seen this season.

Emory Jones has not been consistent enough at Quarter Back, but this is a big chance for him to showcase some of his skills with the team likely to be in third and short situations when he is being called on. Add in the play-action opportunities against a Commodores Secondary which has allowed almost 250 passing yards per game even with their struggles to stop the run, and I think Emory Jones can have a big game.

The Gators are going to be dealing with little pressure on this side of the ball and I do think Florida can put in a huge performance as they look to build momentum before another big SEC game against the LSU Tigers in Week 7.

This is a very big spread, but the home team is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in the series and the Florida Gators beat Vanderbilt by 56 points the last time they hosted them. The Gators are 5-1 against the spread in the last six games following a straight up loss and they are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight at home.

Vanderbilt are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the road underdog and this is a number of points that means the road team have to be respected. However, Georgia were a 36 point road favourite and crushed the Commodores and I think the Florida Gators may take out their frustrations on what is the weakest team in the Conference.

Oregon State Beavers @ Washington State Cougars Pick: After the Oregon Ducks went into Columbus and came away with a win, they would have been a strong favourite to win the Pac-12 North and ultimately the Pac-12 Championship Game. However, the Ducks have fallen already within the Conference and that has opened the door for their rivals, the Oregon State Beavers (4-1).

The Beavers are the only team with an unbeaten record in the Pac-12 North and their 2-0 record in the Conference is built with wins over the USC Trojans and Washington Huskies. Oregon State may be on the road this week, but they are considered favourites to knock off the Washington State Cougars (2-3) who are now 1-2 in the Conference having beaten the California Golden Bears in Week 5.

It should be noted that the Golden Bears have had a miserable start to the 2021 season and this is a big test for the Cougars against a confident Oregon State team. Many would have tipped up the Beavers to be the lowest ranked of the teams in this Division, but Jonathan Smith has an extremely experienced team and they are one win away from matching the highest number of wins in a single season in his four years as Head Coach.

At this point, failing to snap the eight year wait for a Bowl appearance would be seen as a big disappointment, but the Oregon State Beavers cannot look too far ahead. This is not a team that has been at their best when it comes to pushing the passing game, but the Beavers will believe their Offensive Line is capable of setting everything up on this side of the ball.

The Beavers needed very little out of their Quarter Back throwing the ball last week, but over the course of the season they have been able to have some success with Chance Nolan. The Quarter Back did not begin the season as the starter, but he has almost 900 passing yards this season and Chance Nolan has thrown 9 Touchdown passes with just 3 Interceptions.

However, I have already mentioned that the main ambition for the Beavers is going to be running behind this Offensive Line and establishing the run to open up the passing lanes. They should have considerable successes doing that against this Washington State Defensive Line and it will give the Beavers every chance of being very balanced Offensively.

It should lead to a day where Oregon State are moving the ball consistently and putting pressure on the Cougars to keep up on the scoreboard. This is Nick Rolovich's second season as Head Coach of the Washington State team that had won at least six games in each of the last five seasons played under Mike Leach before a 1-3 2020 season.

Under their previous Head Coach, Washington State relied on the Air Raid Offense and that meant struggles to run the ball effectively. This is an area that Rolovich will want to improve, but the Cougars have been struggling to establish the run and they are now facing a Beavers Defensive Line which has clamped down on opponents to the tune of giving up just 3.5 yards per carry on the ground.

Jayden de Laura had a decent outing in the win over the Golden Bears, but the pressure will be on the Quarter Back from third and long spots if the Cougars are not able to get something going on the ground. He showed his quality in Week 5 and de Laura should be very comfortable in the system that Nick Rolovich wants to use with the Cougars, but the Oregon State Defensive unit have been a key to their early successes.

There are one or two holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by Jayden de Laura, but the other issue with a spluttering run game is having time to throw. The Washington State Defensive Line has struggled in pass protection at times and they are going to be facing an Oregon State pass rush which has been highly effective at getting to the Quarter Back.

It could be the key to determining the outcome of the game and I like what we have seen from Oregon State so far this season. These two teams had completely different levels of success against the only common opponent they have faced, the USC Trojans, and I do think Oregon State can snap their poor record against the Cougars of late.

The Beavers are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the favourite, while they are 10-1 against the spread in their last eleven on the road and I do think the balanced Offensive unit will be the difference for them on the day.

Washington State found a rhythm in the win over California in Week 5, but they have not covered in any of their last six at home and I think the Beavers edge them here to remain unbeaten in the Pac-12.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: A perfect start continues for the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-0) and they are the clear favourites to win the SEC West Division and once again return to the College Football PlayOff. At the start of the season this may have been seen as arguably their biggest obstacle before the SEC Championship Game, but the Texas A&M Aggies (3-2) were beaten by the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 5 and are really banged up ahead of this Week 6 game.

Back to back losses during which time the Aggies have managed to score just 32 points is not going to give anyone confidence that they can knock off the Alabama Crimson Tide, even with this game taking place at College Station.

Jimbo Fisher may be feeling some of the pressure having led Texas A&M to nine wins in 2020 and they have won at least eight games in each of his three seasons as the Head Coach here. They are likely going to need a couple of upsets if the Aggies are going to reach eight wins this season, but the fans are likely going to give Fisher the benefit of the doubt in 2021 when his Aggies team have been hurt on both sides of the ball.

With that in mind, it is very difficult to know how they are going to compete with the Alabama Crimson Tide who were comfortable winners over the Mississippi Rebels in Week 5. However, the closest game the Crimson Tide have played this season has been played in the only legitimate road game at the Florida Gators, which Alabama won by just 2 points, but the confidence is growing in Tuscaloosa and Nick Saban is surely going to be reminding his team about how close they came to a defeat the last time they played on the road.

It should mean a more focused Alabama team, while the injuries suffered by the Aggies in the Secondary should only open the door for Bryce Young to have a big game at Quarter Back. Texas A&M may feel their Defensive Line can at least make some plays up front to force Young to have to take to the air, but this Alabama Offensive Line loves bullying opponents and they will see this as an opportunity to show the rest of the SEC that the narrow road win at Florida was nothing more than a blip.

Pass rush pressure may slow down some of the Alabama drives, but you have to believe the Crimson Tide are still going to have considerable success Offensively to put the pressure on the Aggies when they have the ball in their hands.

Injuries here mean the Receiving corps is down a couple of key players, while the Aggies continue to play without starting Quarter Back Haynes King. His replacement, Zach Calzada has struggled with his composure behind the Aggies Offensive Line and even what has been a limited Alabama pass rush should be able to get to the Quarter Back and bring him down in the same manner and effectiveness as the Bulldogs did last week.

Running the ball against the Crimson Tide Defensive Line is a massive challenge and I do think Alabama will look to clamp down on the run and dare the back up Quarter Back to beat them. Unfortunately for Texas A&M, Zach Calzada has not really had the belief to make his throws with any consistency and I do think the Crimson Tide could create turnovers.

For me, the spread could easily have been above 20 points for this game- I like the Alabama Crimson Tide to cover here and they should be a comfortable winner for a ninth time in succession against the Aggies. The Crimson Tide are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven in the series and they covered as 17 point favourites at College State a couple of years ago.

Alabama are 11-4 against the spread in their last fifteen as the favourite, while they are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten against SEC opponents. This should be their best road performance of the season as the Crimson Tide take advantage of all of the injuries that Texas A&M are dealing with and I think they can cover a big number on the road.

MY PICKS: Tennessee Volunteers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mississippi Rebels - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Florida Gators - 39 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Oregon State Beavers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 17.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 5: 5-6, - 1.41 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.82% Yield)

Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2020 (October 9th)

The Women's Final has been set and I would suggest you would have been something of a fortune teller to predict that Iga Swiatek and Sofia Kenin would be the two competing for the final Grand Slam title of the 2020 season.

It should be a good Final all the same, but before that the two Men's Semi Finals have to be played with both scheduled for Friday. The Women had a tough Thursday to deal with as the wind picked up, but it could be raining in Paris on Friday and that will mean the conditions are perhaps a lot easier to deal with.

We will all see it play out over the course of several hours beginning at 2pm local time.

Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: It was comfortably the best match I have seen at the French Open in 2020 and one of the best Grand Slam matches you are likely to see anywhere for some time. At the end of over five hours of tennis, it was Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who earned his spot in a Grand Slam Semi Final for the first time as he overcame US Open Champion Dominic Thiem in five gruelling sets in tough conditions.

That is the positive part of the match- ultimately winning and remaining in the draw in Paris... The bad news is that Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has not got a lot of time to recover from the long Quarter Final before he has to take on Rafael Nadal who is looking to win a thirteenth title in Paris on Sunday.

At least the Argentinian played in the first set of Quarter Final matches which means he was scheduled on court on Tuesday and that has one extra day to get himself back up to physical shape to take on the King of Clay. That is what Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will be telling himself and he did at least get through the early Rounds at the French Open without investing too much energy and that gives him a chance to be as ready as you can be for this Semi Final.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman will also have the mental boost of finally ending his losing run to Rafael Nadal when he beat him on the clay courts of Rome last month, a match he dominated and deserved to win in the manner he did. Prior to that victory, Schwartzman had lost nine in a row to Rafael Nadal which included four losses on the clay courts, although he has never made it easy for a player that has won twelve French Open titles.

They met here a couple of years ago and it was Diego Sebastian Schwartzman who took the first set before being ground down and beaten in four sets. The feeling is that the early stages of this match are going to be critical for the underdog as he looks to give himself a mental boost by winning a third straight set on the red dirt against Nadal and at least helping forget some of the fatigue and emotional tiredness that is going to be at play.

Ultimately I do think over the best of five set format it is going to be very difficult for Schwartzman to keep digging in and battling past a player who should be feeling fresh and strong. The conditions are not ideal for Rafael Nadal as he has pointed out on a number of occasions both before the tournament began and during the last fortnight here, but he is likely going to believe the longer this match goes the more and more it favours him to break through and pull away from his opponent.

Even in these conditions, Rafael Nadal has been serving very well and it is going to be important to try and keep Diego Sebastian Schwartzman down in this one. It has also sparked Nadal's return game which remains as good as anyone's on the clay courts The Schwartzman return is a key part of his game, but I do think at some point he is going to just feel all of the tennis he had to play in the Quarter Final and that should only help Rafael Nadal all the more.

Diego Sebastian Schwartzman has found a lot of success on the return of serve against Nadal in the previous clay court matches and that includes creating more break point chances in his four set loss here in Paris. I do think that he will be able to keep things competitive for a while, but eventually tiredness could be an additional factor against Schwartzman as well as the quality of opponent in front of him and that should see the Spaniard move through to yet another French Open Final with a good win behind him.

Novak Djokovic-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 37.5 games: The big question that most would love to have answered before this Semi Final is played is how is Novak Djokovic feeling- he looked in discomfort and was agitated for the first two sets of his eventual four set win over Pablo Carreno Busta in the Quarter Final, although the Spaniard suggested that any injury was being overplayed and that the World Number 1 is still strong.

If he was guaranteed to be at 100% you would have to say that Novak Djokovic is a great looking price to win this match. He is a very strong clay court player and the conditions are not helpful to opponents trying to hit through him, but anything less than 100% and I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas has the tennis to at least push the Serb all the way.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has long been tipped up as a future star of Men's Tennis having the charisma and the style of tennis which is going to appeal to fans around the world. This is not the first Semi Final he has reached at a Grand Slam having done the same at the Australian Open before and Stefanos Tsitsipas has had some big wins over the very best players on the Tour in the last couple of years.

That includes holding two wins over Novak Djokovic, although the Greek player has suffered three one-sided losses which have to be a concern for his supporters. The numbers in the head to head are not that impressive for Tsitsipas who has only broken Novak Djokovic five times in their five previous matches and allowed his opponent to hold 91% of the service games played.

However, the Stefanos Tsitsipas serve has proved to be a big weapon for him even against someone as strong at returning as Novak Djokovic. The youngster has held 83% of his service games against Djokovic and he has restricted the World Number 1 to 33% of return points won and that can't be ignored considering what kind of level of returning Novak Djokovic has produced throughout his career.

He has been playing really well at the French Open and Stefanos Tsitsipas has to be feeling confident with that in mind. The serve has been hugely impressive and he has dropped it just twice in the last four matches since having to come from two sets down to beat Jaume Munar in the First Round.

Stefanos Tsitsipas has won at least 71% of service points played he has long been someone who is very comfortable on the surface. The serve has enabled Stefanos Tsitsipas to really take an aggressive approach to his return game and I do think he can challenge Novak Djokovic more than he has in the past if the poorer service numbers in the last two matches the Serb has played is an indication of an injury that is perhaps holding him back.

Even now it is difficult to imagine Novak Djokovic losing if able to compete for four plus hours at the level he can produce, but I do think think Tsitsipas is going to push him here. I would be disappointed if either player falls away in a straight sets defeat and that should give this match every opportunity to cover this total games mark.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 37.5 Total Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 9th)

Spots in the World Tour Finals in both the ATP and WTA Tournaments are being confirmed as we get down to the final few weeks of the 2018 Tennis season.

The WTA Finals are actually played this month and we are down to three unconfirmed places in the tournament in Singapore which will be decided in the next three weeks. A couple of those players will be looking to cement their place in Singapore with a strong showing the events to be played during this week, but the next two weeks is when the real points can be won which is when all of those players will be in action.

Extra places could open up in the WTA Finals if the likes of Simona Halep are not able to recover from injuries and instead decide to sit out and make sure they are healthy for the start of the 2019 season. Those extra places could make things much more interesting for those on the cusp of reaching the WTA Finals and should make it an interesting final lap in the Race to Singapore.


The biggest tournament being played this week is the Shanghai Masters which is the penultimate Masters event on the ATP Tour. The likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are in action this week and it is a tournament with plenty of points available which is of interest to those players looking to reach the ATP World Tour Finals in London.

It is a tough tournament with some speedy conditions in Shanghai, but I am looking to build on last week which was much better than the previous two weeks.

Tuesday looks to be a difficult day to make Tennis Picks with the completion of the First Round and the start of the Second Round here.


Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There hasn't been a lot of competitive tennis played by Pablo Carreno Busta since his retirement at the US Open, but the one match played in that time saw him beaten by Benoit Paire in straight sets in the Davis Cup.

You have to have some questions about the fitness of the Spaniard going into this First Round match in Shanghai and he has to face the same opponent who beat him the last time he took to the court. There is much to like about how Carreno Busta has been able to play on the hard courts over the last thirteen months, but I do wonder if he has the tank to outlast Paire in this First Round match.

It is never easy to trust Paire who has the habit of making some stunningly poor shot selections during matches. However Paire has put together some solid performances since going out of the US Open at the hands of Roger Federer and he has produced some good numbers which suggest Paire will be feeling good about his chances to beat Carreno Busta for the second time in the last month.

Paire has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Shanghai- the win over Joao Sousa in the Second Qualifying Round was particularly impressive although I would like to see the Frenchman get more out of his game on the hard courts.

The Carreno Busta numbers have been stronger than Paire's on the hard courts in 2018, but I am going to oppose the Spaniard with some doubts about his fitness going into the final month of the 2018 season. He was beaten pretty handily by Paire in the Davis Cup match last month and Paire's consecutive wins in the Qualifiers should stand him in good stead to win this match as long as the Frenchman can keep his head in the match.


Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: The conditions in Shanghai seem to be faster than the majority of the hard court events we will see in the year and that could be a saving grace for Vasek Pospisil. The Canadian has been through some tough moments since his breakthrough year on the Tour and the majority of his successes in the 2018 season have come on the Challenger circuit.

Wins in two Qualifiers will have given Pospisil some confidence to take into the main draw, but his numbers on the hard courts have been very poor when playing in main ATP Tour matches. You can't ignore the obvious power behind the serve that Pospisil has, but his return game has not been at a level he would like and the numbers are someway down on both serve and return in main ATP Tour matches compared with his overall numbers in 2018.

Pospisil has been good enough to get back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he is playing an opponent who got the better of him with some ease when they met on the hard courts in Washington a couple of months ago.

Alex De Minaur won that match in three sets, but he would have made his own life much easier if he had been more efficient when it came to the break points he created. The young Australian has been in very good form in 2018 and looks to have recovered from a blip in the middle of the season as he looks for a strong end to the season which could see De Minuar Seeded when it comes to the first Grand Slam of the season in January.

2018 has proven to be an overall improvement on the hard courts for De Minaur whose numbers have been much better on serve and return. He will be keen to prevent Pospisil from getting into this match by serving as well as he did in Washington, and doing that should mean De Minaur is in a position to win this match in fairly routine fashion.

The Australian has been playing some decent tennis in the last three weeks and I think De Minuar is able to win this match and cover the number with the superior return game compared with Pospisil likely proving to be the difference.

MY PICKS: Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 23.10 Units (1597 Units Staked, + 1.45% Yield)

NFL Week 5 Picks 2016 (October 6-10)

The first month of the regular season has been very interesting with some teams massively underachieving and others looking stronger than most would have tipped for them.

Things will clear up over the next month from the contenders to those teams who have simply overachieved, while it is a big month for teams who have started badly and don't have too many losses they can afford.

Week 4 turned out to be a winning week for the picks after a poor start to the week, but I will take a winning week when I can get one. I do want one where I have a very, very strong week, but obviously winning every week from here to the end of the season will produce a winning result over the course of the season.

My picks from Week 5 will begin with the Sunday games because I wanted no part of the Arizona Cardinals visiting the San Francisco 49ers with injuries meaning it was Drew Stanton versus Blaine Gabbert at Quarter Back. There is a real chance that neither will be the starting Quarter Back for those teams the next time they come out to play with Carson Palmer likely to be out of the concussion protocol and Colin Kaepernick expected to take over from Gabbert to spark Chip Kelly's Offense which has stagnated over the last three weeks.

There are some big games in Week 5 and the return of Tom Brady for the New England Patriots will produce plenty of headlines too as I look for a fourth winning week in five to open the NFL 2016 season.


New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The New England Patriots will have Tom Brady back under Center on Sunday after his four game suspension came to a close. It didn't affect the team in the manner they would have expected as the Patriots finished 3-1 in those four games and now head to the terrible Cleveland Browns who are at 0-4.

The Browns have been so bad that some in Ohio actually think they would not be able to beat College Football Ohio State Buckeyes, although that is unlikely. They have had some competitive losses though and Cleveland might have been in a much better position if they had an ability to close games effectively in the Fourth Quarter rather than the production they have produced.

Cody Kessler is going to get another start at Quarter Back having started the season behind Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown, but injuries have knocked both of those players out of games. Kessler is a rookie but has played well for the most part, although a key has been the success that the Browns have had in running the ball.

Cleveland have averaged almost 150 yards per game at 5.7 yards per carry and they should be able to establish the run against the New England Defensive Line. However we all know that Bill Belichick is a genius when it comes to taking away the strength of an opponent and I think the Patriots will dare Kessler to beat them through the air.

There is a possibility that Kessler will be able to open up the running lanes with his arm as the New England Secondary have not been at their best. That might be down to the limited pressure they have gotten up front, although Rob Ninkovich is also back from suspension this week and can help give them another push to get after Kessler who is playing behind an Offensive Line that has been better opening running lanes than protecting the Quarter Back.

The Patriots are coming off a loss this week but the return of Brady is all that anyone will be talking about. They look one of the best teams in the AFC and Brady is hard to back against when he is in a 'bad mood' and you have to think he is going to have been itching to get back on the field and take out his anger on every opponent he will face.

Brady is going to be well protected, but the concern is that both Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski have been a little banged up. Martellus Bennett is a new weapon for Brady who should have time to make plays with his arm against a Cleveland team that haven't gotten to the Quarter Back effectively all season.

Tom Brady should also be able to hand the ball to LeGarrette Blount to churn out some yards on the ground and wear down Cleveland up front. Blount has been banged up too, but should be able to go and has a decent match up against the Browns who have to be trying to make sure Brady is not able to do what he wants when looking to throw the ball.

The layers do think New England will come out and put the foot down on Offense with Brady looking to show he is back in the only way he knows how. They are coming off a loss too so motivation should be high, but you can't discount the month without football that Brady has had to endure and it should take some time to get on the same page with some of his new weapons on the Offense.

New England were also only 1-2 against the spread coming off a loss as a favourite last season and they are 0-2 against the spread as the double digit road favourite in recent seasons. I do have to say Cleveland have been in a number of games and a better finish can make these points tell while Kessler and the running game have a chance of controlling the clock and not giving the Patriots enough possessions to cover this number.

Turnovers are a worry as this rookie Quarter Back takes on the Belichick Defense which can bamboozle the best out there. However this is still a lot of points and I will back the Cleveland Browns to cover in Week 5.


Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: At this point of the season there is no point sugarcoating things- the Chicago Bears (1-3) and the Indianapolis Colts (1-3) are two really bad teams. At least the Bears can say they got their first win on the board last week over Divisional rivals the Detroit Lions, but the Colts came up short in London against the winless Jacksonville Jaguars.

They also become the first team that won't take a 'bye week' following the trip to London and it will be interesting to see how Indianapolis cope in that spot. They can't afford another loss this week as they face the Bears back at home, but failing to protect Andrew Luck has been a big problem for Indianapolis.

You simply cannot allow your franchise Quarter Back to take the beating that Luck has been in the opening weeks of the 2016 season, especially when you think his 2015 season was ended early thanks to a lacerated kidney. Luck was under constant pressure last week against the Jaguars and is on pace for a 60 Sack season which is incredible when you take into consideration his ability to move the pocket.

The Offensive Line has been bad in pass protection which limits the big plays Luck can make, while his Receivers outside of TY Hilton have struggled for consistency. Indianapolis might at least benefit from the fact they are not going to be facing a team with the pass rush pressure of previous teams as Chicago have struggled to get to the Quarter Back. Unfortunately for the Colts, Chicago are coming in after limiting what Matthew Stafford could do with the Lions Offense having finally been able to get some pressure on the Quarter Back.

It has been tough for Luck as the Offensive Line have not only struggled in pass protection, but they have not been able to open consistent holes for Frank Gore which means the team are stuck in obvious passing situations. At least this week the Colts take on a Defense that had a big game last week, but who also have a number of injuries on that side of the ball.

Chicago will have to try and match some of the Offensive production that Andrew Luck will produce through his sheer talent alone. Brian Hoyer will get the start at Quarter Back again having had a decent outing against Detroit, although more problems with their Field Goal unit, particularly Connor Barth, has limited their output. Hoyer should be able to have a decent game this week too against a Colts team that cut two starting Defensive players this week and who have struggled against the pass all season.

Kevin White is missing with yet another injury for the Bears, but Hoyer should have Zach Miller overcome his injury issues having scored 3 Touchdowns already. The Quarter Back should also be backed up by Jordan Howard who had a strong game running the ball in the absence of Jeremy Langford and that should keep Chicago in third and manageable situations where Hoyer won't be asked to do too much and make the mistakes that have blighted him at times.

Both teams should have their chances moving the chains and that makes this spread look too big. No one can tell how the Colts will react playing the week after being in London as they are the first team in that spot since the games began to be played at Wembley Stadium, but at this moment they should not be favoured by this many points against any team.

This is not a great spot with two Divisional games to come after this one for Indianapolis too and they are just 3-5 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of the 2015 season. Even the cover against San Diego came in very fortunate circumstances and I think the Bears can be backed to keep this one close enough to cover.


Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Hurricane Matthew has been battering the East Coast of the United States over the last couple of days, but the NFL have announced that this game will go on as scheduled. It should still be a very windy day in Miami, but the majority of the storm front would have moved further up north although the conditions could make it a very difficult to throw the ball with consistency.

That might suit the Tennessee Titans who have one of the stronger rushing Offenses in the NFL through the first four weeks of the season. DeMarco Murray has rediscovered his form after a poor season with the Philadelphia Eagles and has helped the Titans average almost 130 yards per game on the ground with Quarter Back Marcus Mariota able to make some plays with his legs.

Mariota has been a little disappointing when it comes to throwing the ball though and that is where the Miami Defense have really struggled although the conditions might mean neither team is taking too many chances through the air. He should be using a few screens though because the money has been invested on the Miami Defensive Line and they have at least been able to slow the run somewhat.

The Dolphins are giving up almost 130 yards per game on the ground but they are doing that at 3.7 yards per carry and have shown they can at least limit the damage done on the ground. Unfortunately the Secondary troubles means they can't get off the field and might be worn down over the course of a game as the Defense struggles to prevent sustained drives being made against them.

With the team being behind more often than not, Miami have not really been able to get the rushing Offense going as they would want and instead have Ryan Tannehill throwing the ball too much. There is little doubt in my mind that Tannehill is not a serviceable Quarter Back at the NFL level with his mistakes being too much to overcome and his numbers much more to do with the new rules in the NFL than any actual skill he possesses.

Tannehill will at least be forced to rely on his Running Backs more than usual in the conditions and Jay Ajayi should be able to have some success. Miami have opened the running lanes for 4.2 yards per carry but have only averaged 77 yards per game as they have been forced to play catch up in New England and Cincinnati so have had to rely on throwing the ball.

I expect Miami to establish the run too and that should open things up for Tannehill to make some plays with his arm. He has two very good Receivers and Tannehill should have time to make plays with Tennessee struggling to get consistent pressure on the Quarter Back through the first four months of the season. That should mean the Dolphins can have success too, but the kicking game could be important on a day like this Sunday is expected to be and there doesn't look a lot between these teams.

Certainly not enough for Miami to be favoured by more than a Field Goal despite their crushing win over Tennessee here last season. This time it should be a shortened game with both running games eating the clock and I think the Titans have a chance for the upset outright.

The Dolphins are just 5-12 against the spread as the home favourite since Ryan Tannehill was drafted and I think I want to oppose them more than I have a lot of faith in Tennessee. I just can't ignore the fact that Miami have been outgained in every game they have played this season and the conditions might even the field enough with more faith in Murray running the ball for the Titans than Ajayi for the Dolphins. Again I will take the points in this game this week.


Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: They might not play in the same Conference, but that won't mean there is less of a rivalry between the Baltimore Orioles (3-1) and the Washington Redskins (2-2). There isn't much travel time between these two teams and that means there is bragging rights at stake, plus the importance of this game cannot be lost on either team.

The Redskins have bounced back from their 0-2 start and rumours that the players were not happy with Quarter Back Kirk Cousins and they come into this one with back to back wins behind them. However you have to consider they have been actually outgained in both of their last two wins and I am not sure Washington are as good as their record might suggest.

Cousins has had two decent games for Washington since a horrific Interception against the Dallas Cowboys which effectively cost them that game. He has been helped by a strong running game, but things might be much more difficult this week against the Baltimore Ravens who have the the top ranked Defense in the NFL.

Matt Jones is unlikely to have the same running lanes in this one against the Baltimore Ravens Defensive Line which has only given up 80 yards per game on the ground. Keeping Washington in third and long will put the pressure on Cousins at Quarter Back who should have some time to make his plays, but who is throwing into a Secondary that have given up less than 180 passing yards per game in 2016.

Cousins has big targets, most notably Jordan Reed, but he has to look after the ball against this Secondary who have made a point of creating Interceptions as Washington will have to try and keep up with Baltimore.

The Ravens have not been happy with their own Offensive performances but this is a big chance to turn things around for them. Joe Flacco was critical of the way they failed to produce the big plays last week in a narrow loss to the Oakland Raiders, but this week the Quarter Back is facing a Secondary that have struggled outside of Josh Norman.

It could be a chance for Mike Wallace to stretch his legs and get behind a Secondary that have plenty of injuries and are allowing 280 passing yards per game. This week Flacco will also benefit from getting his first experience of playing with Kenneth Dixon in the regular season with the Running Back returning from an injury and a big threat as a pass catching Back coming out of the backfield.

Dixon is likely to take some carries off of Terrance West, but the latter had a really strong day against Oakland last week and should have another big showing in this one. The Redskins have not been able to slow the run effectively and have given up 133 yards per game on the ground at 4.9 yards per carry so both West and Dixon should help open up the big play for Flacco.

I was hoping that Baltimore might be a little more underrated this week having been beaten by Oakland and Washington coming in with back to back wins. They still look a little short as the favourite to win at home though and I think Baltimore are going to make some big plays that were missing last week and that should see their Defense take over the game and force Kirk Cousins into a couple of big mistakes.

It could develop into something of a shoot out between these teams, but I will look for the Ravens to make the big plays Defensively to lock the game out. I will back the Ravens to be one of the favourites to win and cover this week.


San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders Pick: There won't be many teams after four weeks in the NFL who have actually scored more points than they have allowed, but are actually at 1-3 overall. One of those is the San Diego Chargers who have managed to find losses in games they should have won and more composure would have seen this team coming into the weekend at 4-0 instead.

This is a big game for the Chargers if they want to have any hope of making the Play Offs as they face Divisional rivals the Oakland Raiders who have a 3-1 record. With the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs rounding out this Division, San Diego can't afford to fall to 0-2 in the Division games having already blown a big lead at Arrowhead Stadium this season.

Despite the host of injuries on the Offensive side of the ball, San Diego still have one of the better Quarter Backs in the NFL in Philipp Rivers and he makes everyone better around him. He can make Receivers look better than they are and Rivers looks to have a very nice match up against the Oakland Raiders this weekend.

Rivers should have time to make his plays as Oakland have surprisingly struggled to get to the Quarter Back despite having Khalil Mack and investing in Bruce Irvin. They have also tried to use Free Agency to improve the Secondary, but Oakland are giving up 325 passing yards per game and you have to think Rivers is good enough to move the chains despite missing the likes of Keenan Allen from the line up.

Even if Rivers is not making all the throws, he should have some success giving the ball to Melvin Gordon as long as the Running Back doesn't make the costly mistakes of turning the ball over. It was turnovers which killed San Diego in their home loss to New Orleans last week, but Gordon has another good match up against the Raiders who gave up over 100 rushing yards to Terrance West last week.

While San Diego will be confident they can move the chains and score points, this could be yet another shoot out in which the Chargers are involved. That is because their own Defensive unit have struggled to contain teams, although they did restrict Drew Brees last week before mistakes meant they were trying to defend on their own goal line.

Derek Carr has been in fine form and has some big time Receivers on whom he can call and I think the Chargers have a tough time containing the passing game. They have struggled for much of the season and Carr is good enough to make the plays while also protecting himself with the speed in which he makes his throwing decision.

That ability has opened up the running lanes for Oakland although the San Diego Defensive Line has played the run very well. That might be more of an issue this week as they try to slow Oakland through the air and so the Raiders should be able to establish the run which brings in play-action passes to attack the Secondary.

The records of the two teams seem to be playing a big part in this spread and getting the hook with San Diego looks very difficult to ignore. The underdog has also gone 9-1 against the spread in this series between these Divisional rivals and the Chargers are 19-9 against the spread as the road underdog overall which becomes 10-2 against the spread when a road underdog at a Divisional rival.

You can't ignore the fact that Oakland have been outgained in every game they have played this season and are not used to being the home favourite as they have gone 0-3 against the spread in that spot over the last two seasons. The Raiders are improving, but San Diego have not been as bad as the 1-3 record suggests and I will take them with the points in what feels an underdog kind of week.


New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Pick: At the start of the week, the spread came out with the New York Giants (2-2) briefly hitting over a Touchdown worth of points. That has since come back to the key number seven, but I still think the Giants can make a game of this on primetime when they visit the Green Bay Packers (2-1) who are coming off a bye week.

There are two Super Bowl winning Quarter Backs leading their teams this week on Sunday Night Football, but both have had to deal with questions. Aaron Rodgers at least silenced some of those with his performance in Green Bay's win over the Detroit Lions to move above 0.500 but he is still searching for a long awaited 300 day passing game, the last coming in the ninth game of the 2015 season.

Rodgers might need to get close to that mark to help the Packers win this one and he is facing a banged up Secondary having had another week to work Jordy Nelson back into the line up. With Randall Cobb, Richard Rodgers and DeVante Adams as other credible passing threats, Rodgers could have a huge game this week as a Quarter Back who loves playing in front of the national television cameras.

The other reason it will be down to Rodgers is that the New York Giants Defensive Line has actually played the run well and Eddie Lacy has still not looked completely up to speed. They have't always been able to get to the Quarter Back though even after signing Olivier Vernon from the Miami Dolphins, and that should mean Rodgers is able to make his plays from a clean enough pocket and downfield against this Secondary that have been banged up.

It will be up to Eli Manning to keep up with Rodgers but he has done that in the past with a big Play Off win at Lambeau Field most memorable. Manning has escaped some of the blame for his poor play in the loss to the Washington Redskins as the media have focused on Odell Beckham Jr and the fact he has perhaps not been at 100% mentally in games. This is still a star player though and OBJ might be ready to break out in the best manner possible by producing a big game on primetime.

There is a strong Receiving unit the Giants can trot out every week, but they have not had the balance they have wanted with their struggles to run the ball. Rashad Jennings looks set to be limited at best and Shane Vereen is a big loss as a safety valve for Manning coming out of the backfield, while they are up against a Defensive Line that haven't given up anything on the ground.

That has allowed the Green Bay pas rush to tee off on Quarter Backs and they have been able to pressure their opponent's Quarter Back all season. That has to be a concern for Manning in those obvious passing situations the Offense will be in because the Offensive Line struggled to give him much time against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football and the only reason Sacks didn't show up is because Manning kept throwing the ball away early.

It has the same effect of slowing down Offenses, but Manning is battling a Secondary which has struggled this season compared with Minnesota's which has locked down Offenses. Green Bay have allowed over 300 passing yards per game and Manning should be able to find OBJ, Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard who are all very capable at Wide Receiver.

It should help the game develop into an exciting one but the chances of seeing both teams move the ball effectively makes the points appealing. I respect how well Aaron Rodgers has played in primetime and how well Green Bay have done coming out of a bye week, but the Giants might be underrated by their blow out loss to the Minnesota Vikings. I just don't think Green Bay can play the kind of Defense Minnesota did and the Giants have covered the last four times Manning and Rodgers have played one another.

I feel this is a lot of points in favour of the Giants and will take those this week having backed them to fail to cover on Monday Night Football in Minneapolis.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Giants + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 4: 5-5, + 0.26 Units (19 Units Staked, + 1.37% Yield)
Week 3: 2-3-1, - 2.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-5, - 0.70 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)

Week 1: 4-3-1, + 0.29 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)