Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 13th)

Friday has proven to be a busy enough day where I have managed to research the Tennis Picks I wanted, but I won't have time to write out any analysis for them.

This has been a strong week so far an I am looking to put an exclamation on things by securing two more positive days.


MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Borna Coric + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Shanghai Update: 21-9, + 19.38 Units (60 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 12th)

In a week that has been as strong as this one it can be difficult to be too down on any Tennis Picks made, but I was left a little frustrated on Thursday when both Kiki Bertens and Timea Babos got into a position to win and cover in their matches, but both failed to do that and actually exited the tournament in Linz.

Wins from those two Picks and this would have been an exceptional day rather than a very good one and there are more positive numbers to put down.

We now reach the Quarter Final matches at all of the events being played this week and I have a number of Tennis Picks from those matches in a bid to put an exclamation mark on the week. These matches will take place across the four events being played and over a huge amount of hours with the time differences at the tournaments meaning it is a long day of tennis for those fans who plan on watching all of the Quarter Final matches.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: The opening Quarter Final match in Shanghai is played between two of the younger players leading the way forward for the 'Next Generation' on the ATP Tour.

Both Alexander Zverev and Kyle Edmund have looked strong in their runs in Shanghai and I do think the two players will both be very confident in their ability to win this match. The mental edge may be with Zverev who has won all three previous matches against Edmund, but he won't be overlooking someone who reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open earlier in 2018.

The last match between Zverev and Edmund was also very close on the clay courts, although I do think that might be a surface that favours Edmund more than the faster hard courts. The performances in Shanghai have been very good from Edmund, but this is another step up in class for the British player who remains an outside shot to make the World Tour Finals with a strong end to the 2018 season.

It has been the return game that has really helped Edmund but he is going to be facing a Zverev serve that has proved to be very potent on this surface throughout 2018. I do think Zverev is going to have to serve very well to make sure he is in a position to make it through to the Semi Final after saving a number of break points in his first two matches in this tournament.

However Edmund has had to save plenty of break points of his own and I do think the Zverev return is the better of the two players on the court. He should be able to exert a little more pressure in the match and I think that will see Zverev continue his run and also confirm his place at the World Tour Finals with a Semi Final berth likely to be enough to do that here this week.


Roger Federer - 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Having not played any competitive tennis since the surprisingly early exit at the US Open may be having an effect on the Roger Federer performances so far in Shanghai this week. He has shown the battling qualities that have helped Federer have so much success in his career, but I am sure he also appreciates he has to be a lot better if he is going to win this match.

In this Quarter Final Federer takes on Kei Nishikori who reached the Final in Tokyo last week and who has backed that up with a good couple of wins here in Shanghai.

You have to like what Nishikori brings to the court against Federer with a strong return game likely to put some pressure on the Number 1 Seed. So far this week we have not seen the best of Federer when it comes to the serve and that is an area Nishikori will be looking to exploit with his ability to make enough balls and force Federer to go for closer and closer to the line.

The problem for Nishikori is going to be the same one he has whenever he faces one of the top players on the Tour and that is whether he can get enough out of his own serve to at least get through some games without stresses. It just isn't a weapon that will put fear into opponents and Federer has been very good at attacking the Nishikori serve when they have faced one another.

Nishikori hasn't really been tested on his serve this week and I do think Federer holds the edge in the match thanks to his own serve likely producing one or two 'easier' games compared with Nishikori. That should prove to be the difference on the day, but Federer has to raise his level after barely coming through the first couple of matches in Shanghai and needing three sets to overcome both Daniil Medvedev and Roberto Bautista Agut.

It should be a fun Quarter Final for the fans to enjoy, but I will be backing Roger Federer to come through with a win and a cover.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Shanghai Update: 17-7, + 16.18 Units (50 Units Staked, + 32.36% Yield)

Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 11th)

Wednesday looked to be a pivotal day for the Tennis Picks this week and a strong return of 8-4 means the numbers are in a good place going into the Thursday Third Round matches at the Shanghai Masters.

The WTA tournaments being played this week will set up their own Quarter Final matches for Friday with another busy day across the three tournaments that are running.

I didn't think Thursday would be as busy a day for the Tennis Picks as Wednesday proved to be, but there are a number of matches that have hit my criteria marks and there is only one fewer Pick being made on this day compared with Wednesday.

Hopefully I can have a similarly successful day as yesterday and keep the positive trend going.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This is going to be the third match between Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur in 2018 and the two young players are both having strong seasons on the Tour. The previous two matches have both been won by Zverev, but the first was a very close match in the Davis Cup that needed all five sets to determine a winner, although the second was won in dominant style by the German in the Washington Final a couple of months ago.

Both players are considered part of the 'Next Gen' of ATP players on the Tour and both will be pleased by their 2018 campaign although I do think Zverev is someway further along in his career than De Minaur.

I have a lot of respect for De Minaur as the Australian has channelled the kind of attitude that his compatriot Lleyton Hewitt used to display on the court. While he doesn't have any really big weapon on the court, De Minaur uses hard work and a solid belief in his own game to win matches and he never knows when he is beaten which makes him dangerous.

Ultimately though he has a gap to bridge to Zverev even if the latter has not been playing as well as he would have liked over the last month. The win over Nikoloz Basilashvili will have given Zverev a lot of confidence though as he broke down the in-form Georgian and I think the bigger serve he possesses compared with De Minaur will put the German in a position to win this one and cover this number.

De Minaur is holding serve at just under 80% of the time on the hard courts and he is going to be faced with a solid returner in this one which should mean he is put under pressure in games where he doesn't find enough first serves going in. The battling nature of the Australian means he won't give up without a fight, but I think Zverev's serve is going to be the key with a few more cheap points meaning he can get through service games with slightly less concern than De Minaur.

It has been a good week for De Minaur with two wins in the books without dropping a set, but this is another step up in class and I will back Zverev to edge him out in both sets of a straight sets win.


Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: When Novak Djokovic was beaten by Marco Cecchinato at the French Open the former World Number 1 made suggestions that he was going to miss the grass court season. He looked to be seriously struggling with his confidence at the time, but Novak Djokovic has since won the two Grand Slam tournaments played at Wimbledon and the US Open and he is the favourite to regain his place at the top of the ATP Tour.

Revenge will be the storyline for the television companies in Shanghai on Thursday, but I don't think Djokovic will be thinking that way and instead is focused on another strong showing at a Masters event.

Marco Cecchinato should have some real belief from his win over Djokovic at the French Open but he is so much better on the clay courts compared with the hard courts which seems to make this more of a mismatch. The Italian had only won two matches on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour before this week, but he has already invested a lot into the tournament and I do wonder how much is left in the tank.

He has won two long matches this week against Gilles Simon and Hyeon Chung and both times Cecchinato has needed a final set tie-breaker which will have taken something away physically and emotionally from him.

The conditions could help the Italian who has a decent first serve, but Novak Djokovic is getting closer and closer to hitting the kind of heights that saw him dominate men's tennis for a couple of years. Djokovic is feeling about as good about his game as he has for a long time and the confidence is back which means I am expecting the Serb to put Cecchinato under pressure with the return of serve.

Cecchinato has simply not been a very good hard court player and some way below the standards that are set by Djokovic. If he serves well Cecchinato could be potentially dangerous, but I think Djokovic makes the running in this match and I will back him to cover a big looking number on paper.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: This is a good looking match in the Third Round of the Shanghai Masters and there is almost a contrast in styles that will be matching up against one another. The Juan Martin Del Potro game plan is to simply play an aggressive brand of tennis behind a monster serve and it is one that should be very effective on the courts in Shanghai.

For Borna Coric the movement and ability to get plenty of balls back in play is going to be key but the young Croatian is making some big strides with his numbers on the hard courts. The return of serve is where Coric has really improved in 2018 on this surface compared to the numbers produced in 2017 and it will be interesting to see if he can get into the Del Potro service games.

Unlike Del Potro, Coric will have had a day to rest which means he is a potential danger to the higher Seeded player. However there is a mental obstacle for Coric to overcome having been crushed by Del Potro at the US Open a couple of months ago and the form of the big man has not really dropped off throughout 2018.

His win over Richard Gasquet in the Second Round was a good one and the strong performances in 2018 has really moved Del Potro into a position where he will feel a Grand Slam title to add to his US Open crown is potentially not too far away. Del Potro finished as Runner Up at the US Open this past few weeks and I think he will be tough to beat in Shanghai with the faster courts likely to suit his game a little more than it does for Coric.

As much as Coric has improved in 2018, I do think he has been having a tough few weeks on the hard courts prior to this week. He was perhaps a little fortunate to get the better of Stan Wawrinka in the First Round here and losses to Cameron Norrie and Feliciano Lopez since the hard courts is not ideal preparation to make Coric believe he can beat someone like Del Potro who reached the Final in Beijing last week.

This is an intriguing number and one that almost feels like a trap, but I do think Del Potro is the stronger player on this surface and I will back him to win and cover the spread.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 10.5 Games First Set @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Timea Babos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Shanghai Update: 10-4, + 10.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 36.57% Yield)

Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 10th)

There have already been a number of surprise results at the Shanghai Masters and you could add Nicolas Jarry's win over Marin Cilic to that list in the first few days at this tournament.

The defeat for Cilic could be a critical one with a number of players lining up behind the out of form Croatian in the Race to London and Cilic's place in the top eight could be under serious threat by the end of this week.

One player who avoided any upset was Novak Djokovic who comfortably made it through to the Third Round as he continues his bid to finish the 2018 season with the World Number 1 position.

On Wednesday the rest of the Second Round is going to be completed which means the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer are in action. There is a lot of Tennis to get through and it looks to be a busy day for my Tennis Picks too which both came through as winners on Tuesday with the third pick not counting as Monica Puig pulled out with an injury.


The ATP World Tour Finals are still a few weeks away compared with the WTA Finals which are played later this month. That means every tournament is now very valuable to those players chasing down a spot in Singapore and more of those players will be in action in Second Round matches across the various tournaments being played on the WTA Tour.

Both the Race to London and Race to Singapore have some miles to be run in the final few weeks of the 2018 season and the picture may get a little clearer by the end of the events this week.


On Wednesday I do think the favourites are going to have the chance to put a number of relatively strong wins on the board so it is no surprise I have picked a number of them that have fallen into my criteria.

I am looking to build on Tuesday and make sure the 2018 season ends with a flourish to secure a winning margin for the season.

Wednesday will likely be a key day to this week with the number of Picks I am taking on after a slow first couple of days at the tournaments.

I will analyse four of the Tennis Picks and add the remainder to the 'MY PICKS' section at the end of the thread.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: It says something for Alexander Zverev that he looks likely to miss playing in Milan in the Next Gen ATP Finals for a second season in a row because he has earned enough points to make the main ATP World Tour Finals. Once again it should underline how young Zverev is when what looks a sure fire Grand Slam Champion in the making is criticised for not having made a big impact in enough Slams despite his World Ranking.

The German will be the first to admit he would have expected to have done better at the Grand Slam level, but he is still learning and Zverev is only going to get better. He still has some work to do to make sure he is playing in London in the ATP World Tour Finals, but it would take some run of losses and his rivals playing some immense tennis to prevent that happening.

With Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem already out of the Shanghai Masters this week feels a good chance for Zverev to confirm his place in London alongside Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro. A couple of wins in Shanghai should be enough although there is no guarantee he will get those with a tough Second Round match to negotiate.

Nikoloz Basilashvili had not shown a lot of appetite for playing on the hard courts before reaching the Fourth Round in the US Open. That has clearly sparked something as Basilashvili has enjoyed the Asian hard court swing so far having won the title in Beijing on Sunday and then moving to Shanghai and dismissing Denis Shapovalov very, very comfortably.

Confidence can be huge for any tennis player and Basilashvili is playing with plenty of that. However you can't dismiss the fact the numbers have been fairly average over the last two months even if they are significantly stronger than what the Georgian has tended to produce on the hard courts.

He is serving better in the last two months than he has for most of the season on the hard courts, but he will be tested by Zverev who is a strong returner and perhaps been a little unfortunate to have had a couple of early losses over the last few weeks. The younger player has the bigger serve in the match and still continues to hold at a higher rate than Basilashvili while you can't ignore the amount of tennis the Beijing Champion has played over the last ten days.

The win over Juan Martin Del Potro to take home the Beijing title is a huge one for Basilashvili and deserves a lot of respect. It should also focus Zverev who has suffered some really poor losses on the hard courts since winning the Washington title in August. He will need to serve better than he did in the loss to Malek Jaziri last week in Beijing, but Zverev should have more in the tank than Basilashvili and perhaps just cool down the hot shooting of the Georgian in this Second Round match and lead to a win and a cover.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: It has been five years since Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin Del Potro have played one another so perhaps there has been time for Gasquet to ignore the fact he has lost the last six matches against the 'Tower of Tandil'. The head to head is another poor one Gasquet has against the very best players on the Tour, but he should be ready for this match having already won in the First Round against Leonardo Mayer to get a feel for the conditions.

He is also going to be facing a Del Potro who played, and lost, the Beijing Final just a few days ago and had to make the surprisingly long journey down to Shanghai for this tournament.

Last year Del Potro did enjoy what have been quicker conditions in Shanghai and he reached the Semi Final in this event. You can see Del Potro is much happier with his all around game these days with the wrist injury that has affected his backhand arguably stronger than it has been since before the issue first came up in 2010.

Del Potro is a US Open Finalist, but he might be disappointed he didn't add to his titles in 2018 in Final losses in Los Cabos and Beijing when he was a strong favourite in both. He will want to continue the positive momentum built up by winning here and his numbers on the hard courts are the strongest Del Potro has produced in his career.

The serve is a potent weapon for the Argentinian but the Del Potro return has been underrated and I think that gives Gasquet considerable problems to deal with. The Frenchman has the quality to look after his serve, but the return numbers have been much weaker this season compared to last and dropped off significantly from 2016.

That should mean Gasquet is under immense pressure to stay in the match throughout this contest and only fatigue can keep Del Potro from winning the match. I am not anticipating big issues for the big man and I think he will be a little too aggressive on the return which can force the mistakes from Gasquet and allow Del Potro to win and cover in this one.


Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Yibing Wu: Winning in Tokyo would have been the perfect homecoming for Kei Nishokori but he came up just short after going down to Daniil Medvedev in the Final on Sunday. The points earned has got Nishikori a little closer to the top eight in the Race to London, but he needs another strong showing in Shanghai to take advantage of the early exits Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem have suffered.

The first match for him in Shanghai comes against a home player who is considered a key part of the future for Chinese tennis. Yibing Wu is still 19 years old and he beat a fellow Chinese player to make it through to this big stage against one of the best ATP players in the world.

It is a big gap for Wu to bridge with the majority of his time spent on the Challenger circuit as he looks to build his confidence. That has yet to happen for a player Ranked outside the top 400, but the First Round win here will help Wu improve his World Ranking and perhaps start making the move he would be hoping for.

Wu is going to need to play one of his best matches of his career and he has to hope Nishikori is fatigued from the effort he put together in Tokyo before flying over to Shanghai. The numbers produced by the young Chinese player have been decent enough for the Challenger circuit but this is a big step up and he has taken comfortable losses to Felix Auger Aliassime and Malek Jaziri over the last couple of weeks as he looks to take advantage of the home tournaments being played on the main Tour.

Nishikori's numbers have begun to improve on the hard courts after a few months off with an injury and he looked to be in fine form in Tokyo. There are still matches where Nishikori suddenly produces a really sub-par effort which makes it tough to really trust him when it comes to the bigger numbers on the handicaps, but the numbers on both the serve and return should give him a big edge over Wu in this one.

Sometimes the unfamiliarity of an opponent can take a top player off his game and that may be something that works for Wu who will have the home fans behind him. However I do think Nishikori stays mentally balanced and that should be enough to secure around four breaks of serve which should be enough to cover this number.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: For now Roger Federer is still Ranked above Novak Djokovic which means he is the Number 1 Seed in Shanghai as the Swiss superstar returns to the court for the first time since the US Open. Some will consider the Laver Cup as competitive action, but I still think that competition is developing beyond a glorified exhibition event and this will be a different atmosphere for Federer.

He goes straight into a tough situation against Daniil Medvedev who has been in fine form for a couple of months on the hard courts and made a significant move up the World Rankings.

The young Russian has moved to the brink of cracking the top 20 in the World Rankings after winning the title in Tokyo and he battled through a tough match in the First Round here in Shanghai. Medvedev's numbers have taken a huge jump on the hard courts in the 2018 season and the title won in Tokyo is the second he has earned in two months after also winning in Winston Salem.

There is a real belief in the way Medvedev is playing at the moment and it is the slight improvement on the return over the last couple of months which has made all the difference for him. However I do have to wonder how much has been taken out of Medvedev by all the tennis and travel he has had to do over the last two weeks after Qualifying for Tokyo before winning the title as well as the tough First Round match he had here against an opponent I would usually expect Medvedev to beat fairly routinely.

Roger Federer has had a few weeks to get himself mentally ready for the end of the 2018 season as we almost enter a period of the season in which he usually thrives. It was surprising to hear Federer suggest he had almost mentally checked out of his upset loss to John Millman at the US Open, but you can't dismiss the very impressive numbers Federer continues to boast on the hard courts which makes him amongst the favourites to win any tournament held on this surface.

He has perhaps not returned quite as well as he would have liked in 2018- the actual percentage of return points have stayed steady, but Federer has not been as clinical on the break points and that has seen a real drop in the percentage of breaks of serve he has been able to produce. The serve continues to put immense pressure on his opponents though and I think that is going to be key to cracking what has to be a tired opponent both physically and mentally.

It may take a bit of time for Federer to just get his feet comfortable back on a tennis court, but once he does that I do think he can find a late break in each of the first two sets to win and cover this number.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Keven Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Katerina Siniakova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Shanghai Masters Update: 2-0, + 3.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91.50% Yield)

Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 9th)

Spots in the World Tour Finals in both the ATP and WTA Tournaments are being confirmed as we get down to the final few weeks of the 2018 Tennis season.

The WTA Finals are actually played this month and we are down to three unconfirmed places in the tournament in Singapore which will be decided in the next three weeks. A couple of those players will be looking to cement their place in Singapore with a strong showing the events to be played during this week, but the next two weeks is when the real points can be won which is when all of those players will be in action.

Extra places could open up in the WTA Finals if the likes of Simona Halep are not able to recover from injuries and instead decide to sit out and make sure they are healthy for the start of the 2019 season. Those extra places could make things much more interesting for those on the cusp of reaching the WTA Finals and should make it an interesting final lap in the Race to Singapore.


The biggest tournament being played this week is the Shanghai Masters which is the penultimate Masters event on the ATP Tour. The likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are in action this week and it is a tournament with plenty of points available which is of interest to those players looking to reach the ATP World Tour Finals in London.

It is a tough tournament with some speedy conditions in Shanghai, but I am looking to build on last week which was much better than the previous two weeks.

Tuesday looks to be a difficult day to make Tennis Picks with the completion of the First Round and the start of the Second Round here.


Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There hasn't been a lot of competitive tennis played by Pablo Carreno Busta since his retirement at the US Open, but the one match played in that time saw him beaten by Benoit Paire in straight sets in the Davis Cup.

You have to have some questions about the fitness of the Spaniard going into this First Round match in Shanghai and he has to face the same opponent who beat him the last time he took to the court. There is much to like about how Carreno Busta has been able to play on the hard courts over the last thirteen months, but I do wonder if he has the tank to outlast Paire in this First Round match.

It is never easy to trust Paire who has the habit of making some stunningly poor shot selections during matches. However Paire has put together some solid performances since going out of the US Open at the hands of Roger Federer and he has produced some good numbers which suggest Paire will be feeling good about his chances to beat Carreno Busta for the second time in the last month.

Paire has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Shanghai- the win over Joao Sousa in the Second Qualifying Round was particularly impressive although I would like to see the Frenchman get more out of his game on the hard courts.

The Carreno Busta numbers have been stronger than Paire's on the hard courts in 2018, but I am going to oppose the Spaniard with some doubts about his fitness going into the final month of the 2018 season. He was beaten pretty handily by Paire in the Davis Cup match last month and Paire's consecutive wins in the Qualifiers should stand him in good stead to win this match as long as the Frenchman can keep his head in the match.


Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: The conditions in Shanghai seem to be faster than the majority of the hard court events we will see in the year and that could be a saving grace for Vasek Pospisil. The Canadian has been through some tough moments since his breakthrough year on the Tour and the majority of his successes in the 2018 season have come on the Challenger circuit.

Wins in two Qualifiers will have given Pospisil some confidence to take into the main draw, but his numbers on the hard courts have been very poor when playing in main ATP Tour matches. You can't ignore the obvious power behind the serve that Pospisil has, but his return game has not been at a level he would like and the numbers are someway down on both serve and return in main ATP Tour matches compared with his overall numbers in 2018.

Pospisil has been good enough to get back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he is playing an opponent who got the better of him with some ease when they met on the hard courts in Washington a couple of months ago.

Alex De Minaur won that match in three sets, but he would have made his own life much easier if he had been more efficient when it came to the break points he created. The young Australian has been in very good form in 2018 and looks to have recovered from a blip in the middle of the season as he looks for a strong end to the season which could see De Minuar Seeded when it comes to the first Grand Slam of the season in January.

2018 has proven to be an overall improvement on the hard courts for De Minaur whose numbers have been much better on serve and return. He will be keen to prevent Pospisil from getting into this match by serving as well as he did in Washington, and doing that should mean De Minaur is in a position to win this match in fairly routine fashion.

The Australian has been playing some decent tennis in the last three weeks and I think De Minuar is able to win this match and cover the number with the superior return game compared with Pospisil likely proving to be the difference.

MY PICKS: Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 23.10 Units (1597 Units Staked, + 1.45% Yield)

Shanghai Tennis Picks 2016 (October 15th)

This has been a very good week for the tennis picks from the four tournaments being played, but I am looking to underline that with one more strong showing this Saturday.

It is a day when all of the Semi Final matches are to be played and another strong set of results will mean a positive week has been assured.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: This has been a week in which Novak Djokovic has had to dig deep as he not only looks to protect his World Number 1 spot, but also regain some confidence that looks to have been lost over the last few months. Now I don't know Djokovic personally so I am not sure whether there are factors at play which have yet to be determined around his health or personal issues that have yet to be cleared up.

Either way, no one can deny that Novak Djokovic has not been looking like himself since his defeat at Wimbledon as he deals with wrist issues and his place at the top of the ATP Tour looks under threat. However I think Djokovic will still be too good for Roberto Bautista Agut who won't have a lot of weapons to intimidate as his last two opponents have.

All credit needs to be given to Bautista Agut for the run to the Semi Final this week but this is not a good match up for him with Djokovic likely to get plenty of pressure on his serve with his own return. That pressure against this limited serve can see the Spaniard break down, although I also expect Bautista Agut to have his chances to break serve against an opponent who has not been at his very best behind that shot over the last few months.

They have had some closer than expected matches at times, but ultimately you would think that Djokovic has too much in the locker, even in this current state, for Bautista Agut. The edge in the rallies should go to the World Number 1 more often than not and I think he can come through with a 75, 63 win and move into a potentially huge Final on Sunday.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Gilles Simon: Andy Murray have been in really good form for a few months now, but he seems to have kicked on another gear this week in Shanghai. He has dominated the opponents he has played so far and I think Murray is in a position where he can take advantage of any tiredness that Gilles Simon is feeling.

That is because Simon had to play late into Friday evening in overcoming Jack Sock in three tight sets and doesn't have a lot of recovery time ahead of this Semi Final. While the Frenchman has been able to run all day through his career, I do feel he has lost a bit of the stamina that made him an irritating player to play these days, and those factors can combine to help Murray overcome his challenge.

There is no doubt that Simon will give all he has, I just simply don't believe he can have that much left in the tank going into this Semi Final and Murray is playing well enough to put him under intense pressure. The serve has been working well for Murray this week and that should only make Simon feel the pain even more from a physical and mental standpoint in this Semi Final.

Murray and Simon have had some close matches in the past, but I can't ignore Murray's form combined with the obvious tiredness that Simon has got to be dealing with. That should see the World Number 2 move into that likely Final against Novak Djokovic with a 63, 63 win in this second Semi Final.


Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 games v Alison Riske: The race for the final places at the WTA Finals has heated up this week with all of the leading contenders, bar Johanna Konta, reaching the Semi Final of the events they have taken part in. Svetlana Kuznetsova knows her chances of reaching the elite eight are diminishing because she needed the players above her to falter, but she can put the pressure on by winning and moving into the Final in Tianjin.

The match up with Alison Riske has proved a good one for Kuznetsova in the past with all four previous matches being won by the Russian. Most of those have come in comfortable fashion too as she has used her stronger groundstrokes to wear down Riske over the course of the match and I think something similar will happen here.

One concern has to be the amount of effort Kuznetsova had to put into her Quarter Final win over Naomi Osaka which was won in a deciding set tie-breaker. It also has to be pointed out that Riske has been in very good form herself and she has been a tough nut for players to crack, but Kuznetsova has the stronger serve and groundstrokes and that has to be a difference maker.

It is a lot of games that Kuznetsova is being asked to cover, but I think she can show why she is the superior player by coming through this match with a 64, 63 win.


Kristina Mladenovic + 3.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: All credit has to be given to Daria Gavrilova for the way she managed to get past Angelique Kerber in the Quarter Final, but I am not sure the World Number 1 was completely at the races. While I am not surprised that Gavrilova has come into this Semi Final as the favourite, I do have to say I am that Kristina Mladenovic is being given as many games as she is in this match.

It has been a decent week for Mladenovic who has been able to serve her way out of trouble at times, while she showed some heart in coming from a set down to beat Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the Quarter Final.

Mladenovic has managed to play the big points well which has seen her win all of the tie-breakers that she has played this week. That will be important in this one as both players should be able to create the break points but it will be down to the player who is able to take those opportunities that will make it through to the Final on Sunday.

I do think this will be a close match, much like it was when they met at the Australian Open back in January. Back then it was Gavrilova who came through in three tough sets and I think something similar may be needed here which makes this number of games far too many to be ignored.


Carla Suarez Navarro + 2.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Both players still have an opportunity to play in Singapore in the WTA Finals and I am expecting a tight Semi Final between Dominika Cibulkova and Carla Suarez Navarro. I am certainly expecting a tighter match than the layers are and I also do think the Spaniard should not be the underdog in what I considered to be a pick 'em match.

The form guide certainly suggests that Cibulkova is the more likely winner, but Suarez Navarro has won the last two matches between the players and that has to play a mental role in the match.

Both players have looked vulnerable behind serve which is an issue for them, but I think it does mean we are likely to see a three set match. I can see Cibulkova being able to break down the Suarez Navarro game with her power, but I also think there will be moments where the Spaniard is able to make enough balls back into awkward positions to force mistakes from the Cibulkova game.

Anticipating this match to be closer than the layers means it is an easy choice for me to back Carla Suarez Navarro to at least keep this match close with the games she is being given. I wouldn't be surprised if this goes deep into a third set and that might be long enough for Suarez Navarro to make the games count.


Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Viktorija Golubic: This has been a really good week for Madison Keys and finishing off with a title should mean a first appearance at the WTA Finals for the young American. She has been in dominant form and I have backed her three times already this week and see no reason why she can't cover for a fourth time in a row.

The big serve possessed by Keys has gotten her out of trouble on the indoor hard court in Linz and I think that serve has also produced pressure on her opponents who know they can't afford any mistakes on their own serve. Unfortunately the struggles on the return means it has been difficult for players to stay focused when they are serving and that has seen Keys take charge in sets and matches.

Viktorija Golubic received the benefit of a Garbine Muguruza withdrawal in the Quarter Final, but she did spend a significant amount of time on court. I think Golubic has the look of a player that will make improvements in her World Ranking over the course of the next few months, but I also think she is going to be in a difficult situation against Keys in the form the American has been in.

The problem for Golubic is that she has not been serving as effectively as she would have wanted during this week. She has been broken ten times in her last two matches and that is not going to cut it against Keys and I think the American will end up coming through with a 75, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Kristina Mladenovic + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 18-11, + 11.32 Units (58 Units Staked, + 19.52% Yield)

Shanghai Tennis Picks 2016 (October 14th)

The last couple of days have begun to turn this week into the one I wanted with plenty of winning picks meaning a positive week is in the offing.

There is still three days left of the week though so nothing has been decided yet and I have seen plenty of times in the 2016 season when it has looked liked a strong week was about to be put together only to end up with a poor few days to blow those chances.

I just want to stay focused and keeping making the picks as I have and hope the week can be a positive one as I try to end the 2016 season with some momentum to take into the 2017 season which will begin six weeks after this one comes to a close.


Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Any worries about the Jo-Wilfried Tsonga health this week in Shanghai have been put to rest with the way the Frenchman has worked his way through the draw. Coming from behind to beat the in-form Alexander Zverev is an impressive performance from Tsonga and he is favoured to beat Roberto Bautista Agut in this first Quarter Final of the day.

Tsonga will be playing Bautista Agut for the third time in 2016 but he has failed to get over the hump in two defeats that have both gone the distance. Both matches have seen Bautista Agut come close to losing before managing to turn the match in his favour and I think something similar might happen here.

You would give Tsonga a significant advantage on the serve, but Bautista Agut's strength is making sure he makes as many balls back as possible and that can see him work into the weaker Tsonga backhand. The Tsonga return is also not as good as some of the better players on the Tour and that means Bautista Agut can look after his weaker serve for the most part.

I hate backing against Tsonga when he is in the form he is in, but Bautista Agut has enjoyed the challenge of facing the powerhouse from France and I will take the games in a match that Bautista Agut could potentially win outright.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v David Goffin: Both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have reached the Quarter Final in Shanghai as they continue their duel for the Number 1 spot in the World Rankings. Djokovic is still firmly in the driving seat and with a relatively straight forward looking Quarter Final to come, especially compared with Murray who is facing David Goffin, a player chasing a spot in the ATP World Tour Finals.

However I think Murray is quite clearly the superior player in this match and I expect he is going to be able to show that over the course of ninety minutes on the court.

You know what you're going to get with Goffin- he will work hard and play some quality points, but he does lack the power and the serve to really bother the very best players. Murray is most certainly one of the best players on the Tour and his strong return game should mean he is putting the pressure on Goffin consistently and this has proven to be part of the reason Murray has won all four previous matches.

The British player also has the superior serve in terms of getting some cheap points from it and I think Murray is able to dictate more rallies than not. I am not that surprised that Murray has yet to drop a set to Goffin and many of those have seen him break down the Belgian Number 1 with double breaks of serve not uncommon. I think that will happen here in the form Murray has been in and I think he can wear down Goffin in a 75, 62 win and cover a big looking number.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: This has been a tough road through to the Quarter Final in Hong Kong for the World Number 1 Angelique Kerber including having to win her Second Round match over two days thanks to the rain in the area. She has made it through to the Quarter Final though and will know she needs to improve her level if Kerber is going to find a way past Daria Gavrilova.

Past matches have gone in favour of Kerber as she has shown her movement and defensive skills will give her a chance to weather the Gavrilova storm. The latter can produce a very high level of tennis at times, but Kerber will know if she can stay with her during those moments that the level will drop and turn this match in her favour.

The consistent level that Kerber has produced is going to be tough for Gavrilova to match over two hours and their previous matches has seen the German prove too good even if she has to bide her time for the errors to come. I can see something similar happening in this Quarter Final with the Australian perhaps taking the lead, but Kerber to eventually start wearing her down physically and mentally by producing enough strong defensive moments to force Gavrilova to go closer and closer to the lines.

That should extract errors from the Gavrilova game and eventually I think Kerber will start breaking down her serve. As long as Kerber can protect her serve from being broken more than three times, I think she can come through this match and get over this number.


Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 games v Denisa Allertova: I will admit that I am not always keen to back Carla Suarez Navarro when it comes to big numbers like this for her to cover. While the Spaniard has found a way to win matches, her serve can be attacked and that makes it hard to trust her to win matches by a margin to cover this number of games.

However on this occasion I do think Suarez Navarro can cover against Denisa Allertova even though the Czech player has produced two very good wins this week. Allertova does have some strong qualities and I have watched her play at times and really respected what she can do, but I am not sure she has the consistency to stick with Suarez Navarro in this one.

Allertova's recent losses have come against players who can make plenty of balls and to players who don't have the biggest serves on the Tour either. I think this suggests that Suarez Navarro will be able to outmanoeuvre her in this Quarter Final as long as she mentally doesn't check out of the sets.

The recent form displayed by Suarez Navarro is not very encouraging, but she has played well in Linz as she tries to keep alive her hopes of making it to Singapore. Her two wins have come by comfortable margins and I think she will come through a tough first set before pulling away with a 75, 63 win and move into the Semi Final on Saturday.


Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Oceane Dodin: This has been a good week to back Madison Keys who has covered for me in both of her matches in Linz ahead of this Quarter Final. I am looking for Keys to make it a hat-trick of wins when she takes on Oceane Dodin although the Frenchwoman is someone who I feel is destined for a solid career on the WTA Tour.

Unfortunately I think there is still some developing for Dodin to do before she can really match some of the better players on the Tour. The recent form does make Dodin dangerous as she will have built up plenty of confidence, but she won't have faced the kind of firepower that Keys brings to the court too often in that run.

Once again the Keys serve is going to be so important in this match as that shot inspires the rest of her game. She will certainly also look to attack the Dodin second serve and I think trying to deal with that power is going to be eye opening for the Frenchwoman who will be able to get away with some shots at the level she has been competing in but not able to do the same against Keys.

I do think it will take Keys a bit of time to assess what Dodin brings to the court so the first set could be tight. If Keys continues to serve as well as she has in the last couple of Rounds, I do think she will put the pressure on Dodin and eventually wear her down in this one and come through with a 64, 62 win.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The chase for a spot in the WTA Finals has clearly motivated Dominika Cibulkova who has won both of her matches very easily so far this week. This might be the biggest challenge she has faced though against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who is the defending Champion in Linz and has played her best tennis in weeks here.

Matches between these players have been very competitive in the past and I am anticipating another one on Friday. You can see that they match up well with each other but Cibulkova's edge in terms of her movement around the court should prove to be the decisive factor in the match.

In saying that, I don't think it is going to be straight forward for Cibulkova with both players possessing plenty of power on the groundstrokes and the first strike being extremely important. If Cibulkova gives Pavlyuchenkova too many second serves to look at, I think she could be put in big trouble off the return, while generally Cibulkova's serve is not as effective as the Russian's can be.

I just don't know if Pavlyuchenkova is going to have the consistency to continue finding the big winners over two hours that these players are likely to spend on court. Winning a set should still give Pavlyuchenkova a chance to cover this number though and I am expecting her to do that, although ultimately her defence of the title her might come up short as Cibulkova battles to a 36, 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-9, + 7.60 Units (46 Units Staked, + 16.52% Yield)

Shanghai Tennis Picks 2016 (October 13th)

There is a lot of tennis to get through on Thursday as the tournaments in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tianjin and Linz start getting to the business end of the events. Big points are still up for grabs for the players left in the draw as we get closer to the Tour Finals and that should keep the motivation high for most of those involved.


On Wednesday the headlines were taken by another Nick Kyrgios meltdown on the court when he clearly tanked away his match with Mischa Zverev. You can understand the frustrations of some fans out there as most 'tanking' is less blatant than Kyrgios' attempts on Wednesday but he is not the first player to do this and he certainly won't be the last.

He clearly didn't feel the tournament at all but Kyrgios might have been better served withdrawing before the match began. However I think he is always going to be a temperamental player that intrigues the casual fan who might suddenly decide during a match that he 'doesn't want to be there' any then produce the kind of performance he did on Wednesday.

It wasn't a good look for Kyrgios, but I won't be ashamed of saying I am a fan and he is still on a decent progression path that can take him to the top. He reminds me of someone like Marat Safin who will be able to produce huge performances in Slams in the coming years, but might never have the full determination to win week after week as the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have shown over the last thirteen years.

The game is all there for Kyrgios to be successful, but he will have these up and down moments and I will still be a fan of his even after watching this kind of performance.

And for all those people who think Kyrgios has thrown the match for betting purposes or to fix the result I have to borrow a Chris Jericho line and say you are just 'a stupid idiot' for thinking that.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Victor Troicki: Beating Rafael Nadal in the last Round was a solid achievement for Victor Troicki but this is going to be a tough match in which to back up that victory. He is taking on another Spaniard on Thursday when he plays Roberto Bautista Agut who has already beaten Troicki twice this year.

The last match between them came in Winston Salem when Bautista Agut came very close to blowing a huge lead in the win over Troicki. However that showed that he has the game to give the Serb plenty of problems as his ability to make plenty of balls back in play and having a solid return game from the serve is going to give Bautista Agut a chance for the win.

Troicki will have some chances against the Bautista Agut serve though and that makes him a threat, but I think backing up a win of the magnitude of beating Nadal is going to be tough for him. He has been in better form overall than Bautista Agut since the US Open, but I don't like the match up for him and I think the Spaniard is a little more consistent.

I will be looking for Bautista Agut to win the majority of the longer rallies in this match and I think that will lead to him coming through with a 64, 64 win as Troicki struggles to match the intensity and emotion it took to beat Nadal.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v David Goffin: This is a big match when it comes to potentially deciding the places at the World Tour Finals and the winning player will have a very strong chance of booking their place in London. Both Gael Monfils and David Goffin have shown some good form of late and this should make this Third Round match a very good one to watch.

It is Gael Monfils who has found a way to get the better of Goffin in their previous matches and you have to say it is easy to see why that might be the case. Both are athletic around the court, but that is where Monfils should still be a little stronger than the Belgian, while Monfils definitely has the stronger first serve.

Those two elements alone can give Monfils a significant edge in this match and I think that is a big reason he has been able to overcome Goffin. He has to employ both of those factors to the best of his ability to prevent Goffin picking up some momentum in this match and Monfils can't produce the loose games that gave Kevin Anderson a chance in the last Round, although the South African has more power than Goffin and was able to hit through Monfils at times.

This should be a fun match with both players helping produce some long, entertaining rallies. I do think Monfils will be a little better than Goffin at the big moments and I will back him to come through this tough test with a 63, 36, 63 win.


Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Lucas Pouille: There is no doubt that finishing the year as World Number 1 and reaching the pinnacle of the men's game for the first time is motivating Andy Murray down the stretch. He looked tired after the Davis Cup Semi Final against Argentina, but Murray has taken some time off and was in dominant fashion in Beijing last week.

Murray has made no secret of his desire to reach the World Number 1 spot, but Novak Djokovic is not going to give away that position easily. An easy win over Steve Johnson has continued the fine form that Murray has been producing and now he faces a tough test in Lucas Pouille who is a much improved player.

The Frenchman has a solid game, but I do think the serve still needs some work and that is going to be a problem against Murray. I can see Pouille being put under pressure by Murray for much of the match in the current form he is in and the question here is whether Murray can serve well enough to keep Pouille at bay.

With the way that Murray has been playing, I think he will eventually begin to wear down Pouille and can pull away in this one with a 64, 62 kind of win to send him through to the Quarter Final.


Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Gilles Simon: A comprehensive win over Kyle Edmund in the Second Round has kept Stan Wawrinka going in a positive direction after a strong showing in St Petersburg a couple of weeks ago. Wawrinka was serving well enough and made some big shots through the win over Edmund and now faces Gilles Simon who can be a dangerous opponent if players are not quite up to their standards.

The thing with Simon is that he is going to be able to get plenty of balls back in play and that can cause problems if players are not at their very best. However his serve is vulnerable if players have found their range and someone like Wawrinka can punish the Frenchman if he is still seeing the ball as well as he has been since winning the US Open.

Wawrinka has managed to dominate Simon the last couple of times they have met on the clay courts, but being on the hard courts means there is less room for mistakes. However you have to give Wawrinka the edge when it comes to creating break points and Simon does take a few more heavy losses these days as he has perhaps lost a little bit of a step around the court which made him so effective in his career.

You can't always know how Wawrinka is going to be feeling when he enters the court and whether he can keep a lid on his unforced errors. Even so, I think he is better than Simon and can take the chances that come his way for a 63, 64 win.


Kirsten Flipkens + 4.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: This was a Semi Final match here in Linz last season, but Kirsten Flipkens and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will meet in the Second Round this time around. I am surprised Pavlyuchenkova is seen as such a big favourite when you consider her form in the last few weeks of the 2016 season and I think Flipkens can make a match of this one.

She is receiving plenty of games on the handicap and Flipkens has given Pavlyuchenkova something to think about when they have played one another the last couple of times. The Russian has gotten the better of her all three previous times they have played but she would have only covered this number of games once and Flipkens can keep this competitive.

I am a little worried about her serve which can be attacked by Pavlyuchenkova who has a lot of power when standing and hitting. Getting her on the move has to be the tactic for Flipkens but that isn't always easy when Pavlyuchenkova is at her best and she has to be respected for her performance in the First Round where she didn't even give up a single break point.

However Pavlyuchenkova is coming off a difficult set of results in Asia when she failed to win any of her last three matches. While she should be able to dominate the rallies when getting the first strike in, Flipkens is capable of playing decent enough defence to trouble her opponent and I think she can stay within this number.


Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Misaki Doi: The race for the final places at the WTA Finals in Singapore are hotting up this week and Madison Keys has opened up her draw by coming through a tough First Round match against Camila Giorgi. With the serve Keys possesses, she should be far too good for Misaki Doi in this Second Round encounter, although she has to give her opponent the necessary respect.

Doi came through a difficult First Round match herself, but she can't really rely on her serve to get her out of trouble like Keys will be able to. The other issue for Doi is trying to deal with the significant power advantage that Keys has in this match and her chances of being able to dominate the rallies for the most part.

It is important for Keys to take control of the unforced errors though to prevent Doi getting a foothold in this match, but she has dominated when these players have met the last couple of times. It has been a couple of years since Keys and Doi have met, but Keys is significantly improved since then and I expect her to have too much for Doi in this one.

I would expect Keys to break at least four times over the course of this match and I think that is going to be enough for her come away with a 63, 63 kind of win. There will be a couple of awkward moments on the Keys serve where it will decide whether she can get over this number of games, but I think she can serve her way out of those trouble spots to cover these games.


Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Annika Beck: There is a real chance for Dominika Cibulkova to make it to Singapore for the WTA Finals, but she has to have a very deep run in Linz to keep her hopes alive. She will need help from others above her to falter, but Cilbulkova can only control her own destiny over the next couple of weeks.

She had a dominant win over Belinda Bencic in the First Round although that had much to do with her opponent not being fully at the races. That would usually be seen as a difficult match up for Cibulkova, but I think she will be much happier by what she is facing in the Second Round when going up against Annika Beck.

The German doesn't have a dominant shot and will rely on outworking opponents, but all that means is that Cibulkova will be in every rally. I also think Cibulkova has a clear edge in the power department and will be able to penetrate the Beck defences regularly over the course of the match, although she will also face a few break points with the Cibulkova serve a little vulnerable at times.

Ultimately I think Cibulkova is an all around better player than Beck when it comes to the serve and return. I also think she is the stronger player and it is going to be a match dictated by her racquet. Controlling the unforced errors should mean Cibulkova is able to come through with a fairly routine win as I look for her to get past Beck with a 63, 64 win.


Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 games v Monica Niculescu: There is very little doubt that Garbine Muguruza will manage to make it through to the WTA Finals in Singapore, but she will want to confirm her place in that end of season finale as soon as possible. Her First Round win has put the Spaniard on the right road and I think she can be too strong for Monica Niculescu in this match.

You have to be aware of what Niculescu brings to the court and there is enough tape for Muguruza to know what to expect. Knowing and dealing with it are two different things though and the slicing and dicing that Niculescu produces can take a little bit of time to adjust to, especially for someone like Muguruza who wants to take the ball on and hit with her power.

Timing has been an issue for Muguruza anyway in recent weeks, but I think that is going to be a big issue here especially early in the match. However I do think Muguruza has a significant edge when it comes to the serve and return which will eventually see her playing enough first strike tennis to put Niculescu in awkward positions on the court and allow the Spaniard to avoid the longer, more thinking rallies the Romanian wants to play.

The top players generally have a little too much power in the locker for Niculescu to deal with and I think that is what is going to happen in this match. After a few early issues, Muguruza should take control in a 75, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 0.48 Units (28 Units Staked, - 1.71% Yield)

Shanghai Tennis Picks 2016 (October 12th)

I really thought it might be another frustrating day for the picks as Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils were both broken from 40-0 up at almost the exact same time which seemed to be sending both picks down the crapper.

That has been the case the last couple of weeks and I was preparing myself for more of the same, but thankfully both Tsonga and Monfils recovered from those mental mistakes to ensure a positive day.

Hopefully that has given me something to build upon in the coming days with a very busy Wednesday.


Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Kyle Edmund: This is a lot of games and the layers have set Kyle Edmund as a short favourite to cover with the games being given to him. While he has shown some solid form on the court, I think the US Open Champion Stan Wawrinka can be backed to get the better of him by a wide enough margin to make the odds against quotes count.

Any chance of Wawrinka coasting towards the World Tour Finals and the close of the 2016 season following his success in Flushing Meadows might have gone after he reached the Final in St Petersburg. Wawrinka was a dominant force there before finding Alexander Zverev a little too good in the Final, but I expect a motivated Swiss player to take the court which should mean being a little too good for Edmund.

There will be moments when Edmund is very much in the match as he faces an opponent who will go for his shots which can lead to cheap errors at times. However the power that Wawrinka possesses will give Edmund some issues and I have found the young British player can fall away in these kind of matches even after giving a good account of himself.

Last week in Beijing he took Andy Murray to a tie-breaker before falling away in the second set and I can see something similar happening here. Stan Wawrinka might take a bit of time to appreciate what Edmund brings to the table, but once he does that he should be able to pull away in the second set too in a 75, 63 win.


Lucas Pouille - 4.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: It has been a strong year for Lucas Pouille who has made some considerable strides up the World Rankings which he will be looking to build upon in 2017. He has produced some of his best tennis at the Grand Slam events although I still think I want to see more from Pouille before I consider him as a potential top 10 player.

There is a lot to like about his tennis though and Pouille will be looking for a strong end to 2016 which could also potentially see him getting involved in the race for the Tour Final spots. It would take something special for him to do that although I am expecting him to beat a second veteran Spaniard this week on Wednesday.

Pouille saw off Fernando Verdasco in the First Round and I think he will get the better of Nicolas Almagro who had to dig deep before seeing off Mikhail Youzhny. While that is an impressive come back win and Almagro has the kind of game that can be fun to watch, Pouille is playing at a much higher level and I think he will be less likely to give up a strong position as Youzhny did a couple of days ago.

The ability to run all day should help Pouille turn some points around when defending against Almagro and I think he will prove himself to be in a much better place on the court with a 64, 63 win.


Alize Cornet + 4.5 games v Venus Williams: I am not sure anyone can really back Alize Cornet with any kind of confidence as a player whose emotions can get the better of her on the court. I think it is much harder to back her when Cornet is a favourite, but she is getting plenty of games in this one against Venus Williams when they meet in the Second Round in Hong Kong.

In the past Cornet has given Serena Williams some real difficulties on the court, but older sister Venus Williams has barely been troubled by her. Things might have changed as Venus Williams has been really struggling with her form which means her opponents will have chances to beat her at the moment.

That has seen Shuai Peng and Svetlana Kuznetsova dismiss Venus Williams very easily over the last couple of weeks and Cornet might be the latest who could take a set which would give her a very strong chance of covering with these games in hand. The concern has to be the one sided losses she has taken against Venus over the years but Cornet has had some solid results over the last two weeks.

It has to be said this feels like I am opposing Venus Williams more than I am backing Cornet with any confidence. However it does have to be said that Williams should not be asked to cover this number of games in her recent form and I think Cornet can at least keep herself within this number.


Madison Keys - 4.5 games v Camila Giorgi: The second half of the 2016 season has been a big disappointment for Camila Giorgi who has dropped down to Number 82 in the World Rankings. The season probably can't end quick enough for Giorgi who has been inconsistent through her career, but who has recently found wins very hard to come by.

The Italian will be trying to help prematurely end Madison Keys' season after the American took a Wild Card into the tournament in Linz in order to pick up the points which can earn her a place in Singapore. Keys has been in good form over the last couple of weeks which has put her on the brink of making it through to the WTA Finals, but there is still work for the American to do.

Her big game should mean she is in a position to put the pressure on Giorgi in this one, but the key will be trying to get a first strike in the return games. Both players will feel they have the power to dictate rallies, but the Giorgi serve can break down at times and that is where Keys has to try and take control of the match.

It is a dangerous match for Keys, have no doubt about that. But Giorgi's form is not inspiring and I am not sure how deep she will dig if she falls behind in this match with little time left in 2016. I expect Keys will be able to use her serve to good enough effect to win this match 63, 64 and move onto the Second Round.


Belinda Bencic + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Players chasing their places at the WTA Finals have taken Wild Card spots this week in various tournaments to earn the points to make it to Singapore. One of those is Dominika Cibulkova who is outside of the top eight places going into this week so needs a deep effort in Linz to extend her chances.

She is a clear favourite to beat Belinda Bencic in the First Round as injuries have hurt the Swiss Miss through the 2016 season. That has to be factored into the match, but I still feel the layers might be overrating Cibulkova in this one knowing she is in a 'must win' position to get into Singapore.

The performances from Cibulkova in recent weeks has seen her produce a number of wins, but she has rarely been able to win those matches easily. Six of Cibulkova's last nine matches have ended in three sets and Bencic winning a set should have every chance of at least covering in a losing effort.

I can't ignore the fact that Cibulkova has only covered this number in one of her last eight matches which includes a run to the Final in Wuhan. Her serve can be vulnerable and someone like Bencic is capable of taking advantage if she is feeling back at 100% although I can't completely guess that she will be at full tilt. I still think this is too many games for Cibulkova to be covering though and will take the games on offer.


Sorana Cirstea + 3.5 games v Oceane Dodin: This has been a strong week for Oceane Dodin who has come through the Qualifiers and won a match in the main draw. Since failing to Qualify for the US Open, Dodin has won a title and reached the Semi Final of another at the lower levels, but also won a title at Quebec City on the main Tour.

There is no doubting the talent that Dodin has and I am expecting her to start making a significant impact on the main Tour in the next couple of seasons. The Frenchwoman is a strong favourite to see off Sorana Cirstea, but I can't help thinking she is being asked to cover too many games in this one.

Cirstea was a comfortable winner in the First Round over an out of form Kiki Bertens who has been doing a lot of losing in recent weeks. This is going to be a much more difficult test for someone who struggles at big points when facing break point against her own serve, but Cirstea has to be respected having played well below the main Tour level which is where Dodin spends most of her time too.

It is the Romanian who has shown more success on the hard courts at the lower levels than Dodin, although the latter has to be respected for the way she has been able to play indoors. I can see both players having their moments in this one and I think Cirstea is more than capable of winning a set which will make this number of games very appealing. I still think Cirstea has every chance of winning this kind of match outright and I will back her with the games to keep this one competitive at least.

MY PICKS: Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Alize Cornet + 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-4, + 1.20 Units (18 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)