Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 9th)

Spots in the World Tour Finals in both the ATP and WTA Tournaments are being confirmed as we get down to the final few weeks of the 2018 Tennis season.

The WTA Finals are actually played this month and we are down to three unconfirmed places in the tournament in Singapore which will be decided in the next three weeks. A couple of those players will be looking to cement their place in Singapore with a strong showing the events to be played during this week, but the next two weeks is when the real points can be won which is when all of those players will be in action.

Extra places could open up in the WTA Finals if the likes of Simona Halep are not able to recover from injuries and instead decide to sit out and make sure they are healthy for the start of the 2019 season. Those extra places could make things much more interesting for those on the cusp of reaching the WTA Finals and should make it an interesting final lap in the Race to Singapore.


The biggest tournament being played this week is the Shanghai Masters which is the penultimate Masters event on the ATP Tour. The likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are in action this week and it is a tournament with plenty of points available which is of interest to those players looking to reach the ATP World Tour Finals in London.

It is a tough tournament with some speedy conditions in Shanghai, but I am looking to build on last week which was much better than the previous two weeks.

Tuesday looks to be a difficult day to make Tennis Picks with the completion of the First Round and the start of the Second Round here.


Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There hasn't been a lot of competitive tennis played by Pablo Carreno Busta since his retirement at the US Open, but the one match played in that time saw him beaten by Benoit Paire in straight sets in the Davis Cup.

You have to have some questions about the fitness of the Spaniard going into this First Round match in Shanghai and he has to face the same opponent who beat him the last time he took to the court. There is much to like about how Carreno Busta has been able to play on the hard courts over the last thirteen months, but I do wonder if he has the tank to outlast Paire in this First Round match.

It is never easy to trust Paire who has the habit of making some stunningly poor shot selections during matches. However Paire has put together some solid performances since going out of the US Open at the hands of Roger Federer and he has produced some good numbers which suggest Paire will be feeling good about his chances to beat Carreno Busta for the second time in the last month.

Paire has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Shanghai- the win over Joao Sousa in the Second Qualifying Round was particularly impressive although I would like to see the Frenchman get more out of his game on the hard courts.

The Carreno Busta numbers have been stronger than Paire's on the hard courts in 2018, but I am going to oppose the Spaniard with some doubts about his fitness going into the final month of the 2018 season. He was beaten pretty handily by Paire in the Davis Cup match last month and Paire's consecutive wins in the Qualifiers should stand him in good stead to win this match as long as the Frenchman can keep his head in the match.


Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: The conditions in Shanghai seem to be faster than the majority of the hard court events we will see in the year and that could be a saving grace for Vasek Pospisil. The Canadian has been through some tough moments since his breakthrough year on the Tour and the majority of his successes in the 2018 season have come on the Challenger circuit.

Wins in two Qualifiers will have given Pospisil some confidence to take into the main draw, but his numbers on the hard courts have been very poor when playing in main ATP Tour matches. You can't ignore the obvious power behind the serve that Pospisil has, but his return game has not been at a level he would like and the numbers are someway down on both serve and return in main ATP Tour matches compared with his overall numbers in 2018.

Pospisil has been good enough to get back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he is playing an opponent who got the better of him with some ease when they met on the hard courts in Washington a couple of months ago.

Alex De Minaur won that match in three sets, but he would have made his own life much easier if he had been more efficient when it came to the break points he created. The young Australian has been in very good form in 2018 and looks to have recovered from a blip in the middle of the season as he looks for a strong end to the season which could see De Minuar Seeded when it comes to the first Grand Slam of the season in January.

2018 has proven to be an overall improvement on the hard courts for De Minaur whose numbers have been much better on serve and return. He will be keen to prevent Pospisil from getting into this match by serving as well as he did in Washington, and doing that should mean De Minaur is in a position to win this match in fairly routine fashion.

The Australian has been playing some decent tennis in the last three weeks and I think De Minuar is able to win this match and cover the number with the superior return game compared with Pospisil likely proving to be the difference.

MY PICKS: Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Season 2018: + 23.10 Units (1597 Units Staked, + 1.45% Yield)

Shanghai Tennis Picks 2016 (October 14th)

The last couple of days have begun to turn this week into the one I wanted with plenty of winning picks meaning a positive week is in the offing.

There is still three days left of the week though so nothing has been decided yet and I have seen plenty of times in the 2016 season when it has looked liked a strong week was about to be put together only to end up with a poor few days to blow those chances.

I just want to stay focused and keeping making the picks as I have and hope the week can be a positive one as I try to end the 2016 season with some momentum to take into the 2017 season which will begin six weeks after this one comes to a close.


Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Any worries about the Jo-Wilfried Tsonga health this week in Shanghai have been put to rest with the way the Frenchman has worked his way through the draw. Coming from behind to beat the in-form Alexander Zverev is an impressive performance from Tsonga and he is favoured to beat Roberto Bautista Agut in this first Quarter Final of the day.

Tsonga will be playing Bautista Agut for the third time in 2016 but he has failed to get over the hump in two defeats that have both gone the distance. Both matches have seen Bautista Agut come close to losing before managing to turn the match in his favour and I think something similar might happen here.

You would give Tsonga a significant advantage on the serve, but Bautista Agut's strength is making sure he makes as many balls back as possible and that can see him work into the weaker Tsonga backhand. The Tsonga return is also not as good as some of the better players on the Tour and that means Bautista Agut can look after his weaker serve for the most part.

I hate backing against Tsonga when he is in the form he is in, but Bautista Agut has enjoyed the challenge of facing the powerhouse from France and I will take the games in a match that Bautista Agut could potentially win outright.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v David Goffin: Both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have reached the Quarter Final in Shanghai as they continue their duel for the Number 1 spot in the World Rankings. Djokovic is still firmly in the driving seat and with a relatively straight forward looking Quarter Final to come, especially compared with Murray who is facing David Goffin, a player chasing a spot in the ATP World Tour Finals.

However I think Murray is quite clearly the superior player in this match and I expect he is going to be able to show that over the course of ninety minutes on the court.

You know what you're going to get with Goffin- he will work hard and play some quality points, but he does lack the power and the serve to really bother the very best players. Murray is most certainly one of the best players on the Tour and his strong return game should mean he is putting the pressure on Goffin consistently and this has proven to be part of the reason Murray has won all four previous matches.

The British player also has the superior serve in terms of getting some cheap points from it and I think Murray is able to dictate more rallies than not. I am not that surprised that Murray has yet to drop a set to Goffin and many of those have seen him break down the Belgian Number 1 with double breaks of serve not uncommon. I think that will happen here in the form Murray has been in and I think he can wear down Goffin in a 75, 62 win and cover a big looking number.


Angelique Kerber - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: This has been a tough road through to the Quarter Final in Hong Kong for the World Number 1 Angelique Kerber including having to win her Second Round match over two days thanks to the rain in the area. She has made it through to the Quarter Final though and will know she needs to improve her level if Kerber is going to find a way past Daria Gavrilova.

Past matches have gone in favour of Kerber as she has shown her movement and defensive skills will give her a chance to weather the Gavrilova storm. The latter can produce a very high level of tennis at times, but Kerber will know if she can stay with her during those moments that the level will drop and turn this match in her favour.

The consistent level that Kerber has produced is going to be tough for Gavrilova to match over two hours and their previous matches has seen the German prove too good even if she has to bide her time for the errors to come. I can see something similar happening in this Quarter Final with the Australian perhaps taking the lead, but Kerber to eventually start wearing her down physically and mentally by producing enough strong defensive moments to force Gavrilova to go closer and closer to the lines.

That should extract errors from the Gavrilova game and eventually I think Kerber will start breaking down her serve. As long as Kerber can protect her serve from being broken more than three times, I think she can come through this match and get over this number.


Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 games v Denisa Allertova: I will admit that I am not always keen to back Carla Suarez Navarro when it comes to big numbers like this for her to cover. While the Spaniard has found a way to win matches, her serve can be attacked and that makes it hard to trust her to win matches by a margin to cover this number of games.

However on this occasion I do think Suarez Navarro can cover against Denisa Allertova even though the Czech player has produced two very good wins this week. Allertova does have some strong qualities and I have watched her play at times and really respected what she can do, but I am not sure she has the consistency to stick with Suarez Navarro in this one.

Allertova's recent losses have come against players who can make plenty of balls and to players who don't have the biggest serves on the Tour either. I think this suggests that Suarez Navarro will be able to outmanoeuvre her in this Quarter Final as long as she mentally doesn't check out of the sets.

The recent form displayed by Suarez Navarro is not very encouraging, but she has played well in Linz as she tries to keep alive her hopes of making it to Singapore. Her two wins have come by comfortable margins and I think she will come through a tough first set before pulling away with a 75, 63 win and move into the Semi Final on Saturday.


Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Oceane Dodin: This has been a good week to back Madison Keys who has covered for me in both of her matches in Linz ahead of this Quarter Final. I am looking for Keys to make it a hat-trick of wins when she takes on Oceane Dodin although the Frenchwoman is someone who I feel is destined for a solid career on the WTA Tour.

Unfortunately I think there is still some developing for Dodin to do before she can really match some of the better players on the Tour. The recent form does make Dodin dangerous as she will have built up plenty of confidence, but she won't have faced the kind of firepower that Keys brings to the court too often in that run.

Once again the Keys serve is going to be so important in this match as that shot inspires the rest of her game. She will certainly also look to attack the Dodin second serve and I think trying to deal with that power is going to be eye opening for the Frenchwoman who will be able to get away with some shots at the level she has been competing in but not able to do the same against Keys.

I do think it will take Keys a bit of time to assess what Dodin brings to the court so the first set could be tight. If Keys continues to serve as well as she has in the last couple of Rounds, I do think she will put the pressure on Dodin and eventually wear her down in this one and come through with a 64, 62 win.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: The chase for a spot in the WTA Finals has clearly motivated Dominika Cibulkova who has won both of her matches very easily so far this week. This might be the biggest challenge she has faced though against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who is the defending Champion in Linz and has played her best tennis in weeks here.

Matches between these players have been very competitive in the past and I am anticipating another one on Friday. You can see that they match up well with each other but Cibulkova's edge in terms of her movement around the court should prove to be the decisive factor in the match.

In saying that, I don't think it is going to be straight forward for Cibulkova with both players possessing plenty of power on the groundstrokes and the first strike being extremely important. If Cibulkova gives Pavlyuchenkova too many second serves to look at, I think she could be put in big trouble off the return, while generally Cibulkova's serve is not as effective as the Russian's can be.

I just don't know if Pavlyuchenkova is going to have the consistency to continue finding the big winners over two hours that these players are likely to spend on court. Winning a set should still give Pavlyuchenkova a chance to cover this number though and I am expecting her to do that, although ultimately her defence of the title her might come up short as Cibulkova battles to a 36, 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut + 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carla Suarez Navarro - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-9, + 7.60 Units (46 Units Staked, + 16.52% Yield)

Shanghai Tennis Picks 2016 (October 13th)

There is a lot of tennis to get through on Thursday as the tournaments in Shanghai, Hong Kong, Tianjin and Linz start getting to the business end of the events. Big points are still up for grabs for the players left in the draw as we get closer to the Tour Finals and that should keep the motivation high for most of those involved.


On Wednesday the headlines were taken by another Nick Kyrgios meltdown on the court when he clearly tanked away his match with Mischa Zverev. You can understand the frustrations of some fans out there as most 'tanking' is less blatant than Kyrgios' attempts on Wednesday but he is not the first player to do this and he certainly won't be the last.

He clearly didn't feel the tournament at all but Kyrgios might have been better served withdrawing before the match began. However I think he is always going to be a temperamental player that intrigues the casual fan who might suddenly decide during a match that he 'doesn't want to be there' any then produce the kind of performance he did on Wednesday.

It wasn't a good look for Kyrgios, but I won't be ashamed of saying I am a fan and he is still on a decent progression path that can take him to the top. He reminds me of someone like Marat Safin who will be able to produce huge performances in Slams in the coming years, but might never have the full determination to win week after week as the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have shown over the last thirteen years.

The game is all there for Kyrgios to be successful, but he will have these up and down moments and I will still be a fan of his even after watching this kind of performance.

And for all those people who think Kyrgios has thrown the match for betting purposes or to fix the result I have to borrow a Chris Jericho line and say you are just 'a stupid idiot' for thinking that.


Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 games v Victor Troicki: Beating Rafael Nadal in the last Round was a solid achievement for Victor Troicki but this is going to be a tough match in which to back up that victory. He is taking on another Spaniard on Thursday when he plays Roberto Bautista Agut who has already beaten Troicki twice this year.

The last match between them came in Winston Salem when Bautista Agut came very close to blowing a huge lead in the win over Troicki. However that showed that he has the game to give the Serb plenty of problems as his ability to make plenty of balls back in play and having a solid return game from the serve is going to give Bautista Agut a chance for the win.

Troicki will have some chances against the Bautista Agut serve though and that makes him a threat, but I think backing up a win of the magnitude of beating Nadal is going to be tough for him. He has been in better form overall than Bautista Agut since the US Open, but I don't like the match up for him and I think the Spaniard is a little more consistent.

I will be looking for Bautista Agut to win the majority of the longer rallies in this match and I think that will lead to him coming through with a 64, 64 win as Troicki struggles to match the intensity and emotion it took to beat Nadal.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v David Goffin: This is a big match when it comes to potentially deciding the places at the World Tour Finals and the winning player will have a very strong chance of booking their place in London. Both Gael Monfils and David Goffin have shown some good form of late and this should make this Third Round match a very good one to watch.

It is Gael Monfils who has found a way to get the better of Goffin in their previous matches and you have to say it is easy to see why that might be the case. Both are athletic around the court, but that is where Monfils should still be a little stronger than the Belgian, while Monfils definitely has the stronger first serve.

Those two elements alone can give Monfils a significant edge in this match and I think that is a big reason he has been able to overcome Goffin. He has to employ both of those factors to the best of his ability to prevent Goffin picking up some momentum in this match and Monfils can't produce the loose games that gave Kevin Anderson a chance in the last Round, although the South African has more power than Goffin and was able to hit through Monfils at times.

This should be a fun match with both players helping produce some long, entertaining rallies. I do think Monfils will be a little better than Goffin at the big moments and I will back him to come through this tough test with a 63, 36, 63 win.


Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Lucas Pouille: There is no doubt that finishing the year as World Number 1 and reaching the pinnacle of the men's game for the first time is motivating Andy Murray down the stretch. He looked tired after the Davis Cup Semi Final against Argentina, but Murray has taken some time off and was in dominant fashion in Beijing last week.

Murray has made no secret of his desire to reach the World Number 1 spot, but Novak Djokovic is not going to give away that position easily. An easy win over Steve Johnson has continued the fine form that Murray has been producing and now he faces a tough test in Lucas Pouille who is a much improved player.

The Frenchman has a solid game, but I do think the serve still needs some work and that is going to be a problem against Murray. I can see Pouille being put under pressure by Murray for much of the match in the current form he is in and the question here is whether Murray can serve well enough to keep Pouille at bay.

With the way that Murray has been playing, I think he will eventually begin to wear down Pouille and can pull away in this one with a 64, 62 kind of win to send him through to the Quarter Final.


Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 games v Gilles Simon: A comprehensive win over Kyle Edmund in the Second Round has kept Stan Wawrinka going in a positive direction after a strong showing in St Petersburg a couple of weeks ago. Wawrinka was serving well enough and made some big shots through the win over Edmund and now faces Gilles Simon who can be a dangerous opponent if players are not quite up to their standards.

The thing with Simon is that he is going to be able to get plenty of balls back in play and that can cause problems if players are not at their very best. However his serve is vulnerable if players have found their range and someone like Wawrinka can punish the Frenchman if he is still seeing the ball as well as he has been since winning the US Open.

Wawrinka has managed to dominate Simon the last couple of times they have met on the clay courts, but being on the hard courts means there is less room for mistakes. However you have to give Wawrinka the edge when it comes to creating break points and Simon does take a few more heavy losses these days as he has perhaps lost a little bit of a step around the court which made him so effective in his career.

You can't always know how Wawrinka is going to be feeling when he enters the court and whether he can keep a lid on his unforced errors. Even so, I think he is better than Simon and can take the chances that come his way for a 63, 64 win.


Kirsten Flipkens + 4.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: This was a Semi Final match here in Linz last season, but Kirsten Flipkens and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova will meet in the Second Round this time around. I am surprised Pavlyuchenkova is seen as such a big favourite when you consider her form in the last few weeks of the 2016 season and I think Flipkens can make a match of this one.

She is receiving plenty of games on the handicap and Flipkens has given Pavlyuchenkova something to think about when they have played one another the last couple of times. The Russian has gotten the better of her all three previous times they have played but she would have only covered this number of games once and Flipkens can keep this competitive.

I am a little worried about her serve which can be attacked by Pavlyuchenkova who has a lot of power when standing and hitting. Getting her on the move has to be the tactic for Flipkens but that isn't always easy when Pavlyuchenkova is at her best and she has to be respected for her performance in the First Round where she didn't even give up a single break point.

However Pavlyuchenkova is coming off a difficult set of results in Asia when she failed to win any of her last three matches. While she should be able to dominate the rallies when getting the first strike in, Flipkens is capable of playing decent enough defence to trouble her opponent and I think she can stay within this number.


Madison Keys - 5.5 games v Misaki Doi: The race for the final places at the WTA Finals in Singapore are hotting up this week and Madison Keys has opened up her draw by coming through a tough First Round match against Camila Giorgi. With the serve Keys possesses, she should be far too good for Misaki Doi in this Second Round encounter, although she has to give her opponent the necessary respect.

Doi came through a difficult First Round match herself, but she can't really rely on her serve to get her out of trouble like Keys will be able to. The other issue for Doi is trying to deal with the significant power advantage that Keys has in this match and her chances of being able to dominate the rallies for the most part.

It is important for Keys to take control of the unforced errors though to prevent Doi getting a foothold in this match, but she has dominated when these players have met the last couple of times. It has been a couple of years since Keys and Doi have met, but Keys is significantly improved since then and I expect her to have too much for Doi in this one.

I would expect Keys to break at least four times over the course of this match and I think that is going to be enough for her come away with a 63, 63 kind of win. There will be a couple of awkward moments on the Keys serve where it will decide whether she can get over this number of games, but I think she can serve her way out of those trouble spots to cover these games.


Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Annika Beck: There is a real chance for Dominika Cibulkova to make it to Singapore for the WTA Finals, but she has to have a very deep run in Linz to keep her hopes alive. She will need help from others above her to falter, but Cilbulkova can only control her own destiny over the next couple of weeks.

She had a dominant win over Belinda Bencic in the First Round although that had much to do with her opponent not being fully at the races. That would usually be seen as a difficult match up for Cibulkova, but I think she will be much happier by what she is facing in the Second Round when going up against Annika Beck.

The German doesn't have a dominant shot and will rely on outworking opponents, but all that means is that Cibulkova will be in every rally. I also think Cibulkova has a clear edge in the power department and will be able to penetrate the Beck defences regularly over the course of the match, although she will also face a few break points with the Cibulkova serve a little vulnerable at times.

Ultimately I think Cibulkova is an all around better player than Beck when it comes to the serve and return. I also think she is the stronger player and it is going to be a match dictated by her racquet. Controlling the unforced errors should mean Cibulkova is able to come through with a fairly routine win as I look for her to get past Beck with a 63, 64 win.


Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 games v Monica Niculescu: There is very little doubt that Garbine Muguruza will manage to make it through to the WTA Finals in Singapore, but she will want to confirm her place in that end of season finale as soon as possible. Her First Round win has put the Spaniard on the right road and I think she can be too strong for Monica Niculescu in this match.

You have to be aware of what Niculescu brings to the court and there is enough tape for Muguruza to know what to expect. Knowing and dealing with it are two different things though and the slicing and dicing that Niculescu produces can take a little bit of time to adjust to, especially for someone like Muguruza who wants to take the ball on and hit with her power.

Timing has been an issue for Muguruza anyway in recent weeks, but I think that is going to be a big issue here especially early in the match. However I do think Muguruza has a significant edge when it comes to the serve and return which will eventually see her playing enough first strike tennis to put Niculescu in awkward positions on the court and allow the Spaniard to avoid the longer, more thinking rallies the Romanian wants to play.

The top players generally have a little too much power in the locker for Niculescu to deal with and I think that is what is going to happen in this match. After a few early issues, Muguruza should take control in a 75, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kirsten Flipkens + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-7, - 0.48 Units (28 Units Staked, - 1.71% Yield)

Shanghai Tennis Picks 2016 (October 10th)

I have to say that the last couple of weeks have been highly frustrating for the picks after a strong US Open gave me a shot at ending this season by at least avoiding back to back losing seasons. That is looking increasingly likely now in the final six weeks of the 2016 season which is irritating to say the least.

The bigger tournaments have mainly been successful but getting married during the clay court season didn't help as I took a month off from the picks during the time that I seem to enjoy the most. I am hoping to end the next few weeks with a winning record which at least will give me some momentum to take into the 2017 season and there isn't a long 'off-season' for the players before they all go again and the Australian Open begins.


This week is a big one for players on both Tours as players chase the points that can see them play in the Tour Finals. The WTA Finals in Singapore are only a couple of weeks away from beginning, but there is a bit more time for the players chasing a place in the ATP World Tour Finals in London and plenty of points up for grabs in the coming weeks.

The players chasing the WTA elite eight have a little more pressing matters to attend to and there really isn't a lot of points that separate Garbine Muguruza in Number 6 and Svetlana Kuznetsova in Number 11 and that makes this a big week. In all honesty, it would take something special for Muguruza to not find the points to make it through, while Kuznetsova needs a lot to go for her to keep her alive including perhaps seeing Serena Williams withdraw from Singapore.

Madison Keys, Johanna Konta, Dominika Cibulkova and Carla Suarez Navarro are the four players who are most likely battling out for two players. All of those players are in action this week and I think it is going to be interesting to see how it pans out although I am sure these players will all be taking Wild Cards into the final events of the season next week to try and pick up the points they need to enter the tournament in Singapore.


Federico Delbonis + 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: The British Number 2 Kyle Edmund came through the Qualifiers after a really strong week in Beijing and he is a big favourite to see off Federico Delbonis in this First Round match in Shanghai. I can't help feel he is too big a favourite against a player who is going to be trying to impress so he can represent Argentina in the Davis Cup Final and who has a game that can be very effective on the hard courts.

There is a lot to like about the Edmund game although it is no surprise that some of the 'experts' in the United Kingdom seem to be much higher on him than I am at this moment in time. While I see the positives in his game, I also have seen the negative side with shot selection sometimes not being the best and his serve can also be a little vulnerable.

The forehand is a huge weapon and will be going into the Delbonis backhand naturally, but it is the Argentinian's forehand going into the Edmund backhand that could cause problems. The Delbonis serve can also be very effective when he is feeling his game and I think he is capable of making this a very tough opening match for Edmund.

One real area of concern has to be the fact that Delbonis has lost ten of his last eleven matches and is facing a confident Edmund. However the youngster has been playing a lot of tennis of late and Delbonis is capable of winning a set which makes this an appealing number of games as long as that doesn't come in a tie-breaker win and I will take those games.


Mikhail Youzhny - 2.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: These two players are veterans of the ATP Tour who have seen better days, but you have to respect the fact that both Mikhail Youzhny and Nicolas Almagro still want to compete. Neither is going to be hungry in their retirement, but clearly enjoy the competitiveness of playing tennis and you are a long time retired as an athlete so credit to both players.

I have been particularly impressed with Youzhny who looked like he had finally slipped too far to compete on the main ATP Tour in 2015. He has bounced back very effectively in 2016 and while not likely to ever hit the heights of his peak, Youzhny is a dangerous player when he is feeling his tennis.

Youzhny has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Shanghai and he has a 5-0 head to head record over Almagro although the last of those matches was back in 2013. Both players have had some poor losses to their names but I think Youzhny has at least won a few more matches on the hard courts recently and that could give him the edge.

The backhand to backhand rallies are going to be beautiful to watch, but I think Youzhny is the mentally stronger player and can find a way to edge out Almagro who is just 5-6 in hard court matches in 2016. It might be a match where both players have some issues when it comes to holding serve, but Youzhny can come through with a 46, 63, 64 win.


Laura Siegemund - 2.5 games v Viktorija Golubic: This is an interesting First Round match between two players who have had some decent results in 2016 but are not really threatening the very best players. For Laura Siegemund it has been a career year in terms of wins and her World Ranking, but Viktorija Golubic will also look back fondly having won a title on the main Tour.

In recent weeks we have seen Golubic win more matches compared with Siegemund, but it has to be noted that they have been competing at different levels. While Siegemund has played in big events in Wuhan and Beijing where it took losses from good quality opponents to prevent her having a deep run, Golubic was playing in Osaka and Guangzhou where she didn't really meet the very best players on the WTA Tour.

There is going to be chances for both players in this match with the way they play- I do think Golubic arguably has more talent, but Siegemund is not someone who will throw away matches but will give all she has to try and turn things in her favour.

That makes it a tight match, but I do think Siegemund has played at a higher level for the majority of the season and that should make her a little more tested at critical moments. That can be a key difference maker when the big points are played in this one although Golubic should have the power edge and can take the racquet out of Siegemund's hands.

I do think that Siegemund can have enough success with her defensive ability and able to turn the points from defence to attack to win this match. I think that leads to a 63, 46, 75 win for the German and a place through to the Second Round.


Sorana Cirstea + 3.5 games v Kiki Bertens: It feels a long time since Sorana Cirstea was seen as one of the bright prospects on the WTA Tour and he has struggled over the last three seasons to find her consistency. When you think Cirstea won over 60 matches on the main Tour in 2012 and 2013, it is hard to imagine she has won just 20 matches between 2014 and 2016.

There are still things you can like about the Cirstea game which has seen her serve well and use plenty of power to penetrate defences of opponents. However the inconsistency has really hurt her chances to get back amongst the best players on the WTA Tour and it is no surprise she is an underdog in this First Round match.

In saying that I am not sure Kiki Bertens can really be as big a favourite to win any match at the moment when you think she has lost 6 matches in a row since losing in the Final in Gstaad. This is the first time Bertens is back on the Tour since losing in the First Round at the US Open and I do wonder if there is some sort of physical ailment that has prevented the Dutchwoman from ending 2016 in really strong fashion.

She is the rightful favourite considering how big the Bertens game is and the form she has generally shown over the last few months. My concern is that she is not quite at 100% and Cirstea is certainly a player that has the ability to expose any vulnerabilities and at least win a set by a wide margin which makes this number of games very appealing.

It is hard to really have faith in Cirstea considering her rather poor form on the main Tour since 2014, but Bertens might not have a lot left in the tank for 2016 so I will take the games.


Johanna Larsson - 1.5 games v Misaki Doi: The Asian swing probably means more to Misaki Doi than for many other players on the Tour and she might be a little disappointed by the lack of wins she had over the last month. Now she returns to Europe as the 2016 season comes to a close and takes on Johanna Larsson who already has the most wins on the main Tour in a single season in her entire career.

The edge in this match on the serve has to be given to Larsson who has a big kicker and can earn plenty of short balls from that which allows her to dictate the points. She is not as strong as Doi when it comes to the extended rallies so Larsson will have to make sure she can get in a big first strike on the return against a serve which is not one of the biggest on the Tour.

That serve has allowed players to really attack Doi and I am not surprised she has a 9-17 record on the hard courts in 2016 as it can be tougher to recover breaks on this surface. Being indoors should only aid Larsson a little more and I do think the layers have got it right by setting her as the favourite in this match.

Misaki Doi hasn't won a lot of matches on the Tour over the last couple of months and I think that has to be sapping some of the confidence. In this one I can see Larsson being a little too strong as the match goes on with an ability to get a few more cheaper points off the serve and I will back the Swedish player to cover the games in a win.

MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2016: - 28.58 Units (1739 Units Staked, - 1.64% Yield)

Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (October 13th)

The 2015 tennis season is winding down and the next month is all about picking up the Ranking points to reach the Tour Finals on both the WTA and ATP Tour. While the WTA Tour has effectively played the last of the really big events, the 'Race for Singapore' still looks an intriguing one to the point that a few players have taken Wild Cards this week into events to earn the points they need.

There are only 700 points separating fifth place to sixteenth and the likes of Angelique Kerber, Agnieszka Radwanska, Flavia Pennetta and Venus Williams are out on the Tour to earn some valuable points this week. It might get even more interesting if the likes of Simona Halep, Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova decide they will follow Serena Williams' lead and pull out of Singapore as all three have been suffering injuries at the back end of the season.

Those three are part of the four players already confirming their place in Singapore so it could open the door further down the Race for other players to get involved.

The 'Race for London' on the ATP side of the Tour looks a little more clear cut, although the Shanghai Masters is offering 1000 points to the winner which could certainly change things. However, Richard Gasquet in ninth place is 1200 points behind David Ferrer and I am not sure there will be many out there that think Gasquet, John Isner, Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic or Milos Raonic have a legitimate chance of winning the title here and making up some huge ground on the top eight players in the world.

It is more likely that the ninth place could be a vital one with Andy Murray suggesting he would miss the Tour Finals to prepare for the Davis Cup Final as the move onto the clay courts needs some adjustment time for him. That would open the door for someone outside of the top eight to make their way to London and might be the most interesting aspect of the 'Race' in the coming weeks.

Just over 400 points separates Gasquet in ninth place and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in fifteenth so that could be fun to see who can put together a solid month to move into a potential final spot in the Tour Finals.

No one can really rule out someone coming through the pack to take a surprise top eight place with two 1000 events and two 500 events upcoming, but I do think the top eight players will be 'comfortable' with the leads they have built. Four of the places have been taken and the likes of Tomas Berdych, Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikori will know a big week in Shanghai will put them on the brink of qualification too, if not confirm those places, so it should be a fun week here.


Richard Gasquet - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: It was a poor return to the Tour for Richard Gasquet who was beaten in his first match since reaching the US Open Quarter Final. That has dented his chances of reaching the World Tour Finals in London, but the Frenchman can still fight his way into the top eight if he can end this final month of the season in a positive manner.

His opening match in Shanghai could have been easier than the dangerous Gilles Muller who reached the Semi Final in Tokyo last week. Muller was a little fortunate to get as far as that considering the break point chances that players had against him prior to the Semi Final and even the close loss to Stan Wawrinka was actually pretty one-sided.

The lefty serve is a dominant shot for Muller when he brings his very best to the court and Muller will give Gasquet some problems trying to deal with that shot. However, this is a player that doesn't bring too many different looks to the court and Gasquet will likely be the better player as soon as the rally progresses beyond the fourth shot of the point.

This is a dangerous number if Muller is serving well because Richard Gasquet can sometimes be a little too loose when it comes to his own service games. He was playing very well in New York though and knows that Muller isn't the most effective returner, although someone who will take a chance to get to the net if he sees too many second serves.

After a tight battle in the first set which may need a tie-breaker to separate the players, I like Gasquet getting his 'Race for London' re-energised in a 76, 64 win.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: I have a lot of respect for the talent that Borna Coric clearly has at his disposal, but I think Marin Cilic will still have a little too much for his compatriot in this Second Round match. There will be something about playing a player that he might have looked up to for Coric to deal with and that has proven a difficulty in the initial meetings in the past for others.

Coric does come off a lot more confident than most though and I not entirely sure he will be overawed considering some of the wins he has put together over the last twelve months. He had an impressive win over Alexandr Dolgopolov in the First Round, but Coric needed to go into a final set tie-breaker to get things done.

That was the case for Marin Cilic on Monday too, although he would have had a lot less rest than Coric ahead of this match. Cilic can be a little loose on the court and that will give Coric a chance to earn a big win in this one, but the youngster is still trying to find his own consistency on the Tour.

He is going to grow into his body which will bring his power up to the level he will need on the Tour, but at the moment that side can be a little bit of weakness. Coric has the skills to take a set in this one, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was to lose a set by a couple of breaks of serve and Cilic should have enough for a 36, 62, 63 kind of win.


Anna Schmiedlova v Annika Beck: I thought Anna Schmiedlova would be a much healthier favourite to win this match than she is, especially as she has tended to play along with a much higher company of opponent than Annika Beck.

There aren't too many World Ranking places that separates these two players, but Beck was playing in Tashkent, where she reached the Quarter Final, while Schmiedlova was reaching a Quarter Final in Wuhan. An early defeat in Beijing is disappointing, but that means Schmiedlova shouldn't have any lingering jet lag issues from the travel back to Europe.

I think there is more potential in the Schmiedlova game too and I believe she has a more effective serve which should keep her nose in front during this match. Schmiedlova has won the two previous matches between these players and I like her consistency from the back of the court which should see her overcome Beck.

Maybe this match goes the distance, but Schmiedlova coming through with a win looks a generous price to me.

MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Anna Schmiedlova @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Final: 11-10, - 1.82 Units (42 Units Staked, - 4.33% Yield)

Season 2015: - 1.27 Units (1652 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units