Semi Final time in the four tournaments being played on the ATP and WTA Tours this week and it looks like a very good one for the ladies who were chasing a place in the WTA Tour Finals in Singapore. The likes of Agnieszka Radwanska, Venus Williams and Angelique Kerber have all reached the Semi Finals and will be favoured to move into the Final, but Karolina Pliskova will also have something to say when she plays Radwanska in a huge game for both players.
The Shanghai Masters also promised a very good end to the Masters tournament there with all four players left in the draw showing some strong form.
It would be silly of me to go on without mentioning the impressive nature of Rafael Nadal's win over Stan Wawrinka. I didn't see too much of the match because of the time it came onto the court, but the highlights show the Spaniard is definitely looking in a much stronger place mentally and his confidence has improved no end.
There were signs of that at the US Open, but the last two weeks have seen a real improvement and picking up the kind of momentum that could see Nadal better 2015 considerably when the 2016 season rolls around. Wins over Ivo Karlovic and Milos Raonic have to be respected this week, but the total dismantling of Stan Wawrinka was so unexpected and Nadal will now look to get to the Final and have second crack at Novak Djokovic in the space of seven days, assuming the World Number 1 beats Andy Murray in the second Semi Final too.
Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: There is no doubting what a fantastic week this potentially is going to be for Rafael Nadal, perhaps the one that people will point back to in the 2016 season as where the former World Number 1 began to return to the top of the Tour. Consistency is still going to be the key for Nadal, but his three wins this week have been fantastic, none more so than the one over Stan Wawrinka when he dropped just three games.
That was a mighty impressive Quarter Final performance from Nadal and he will have to go to the well again when he faces Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who is also having a strong tournament.
A win over Kevin Anderson has given Tsonga's chances of reaching the World Tour Finals a shot in the arm, while he also won the title in Metz following the US Open. He still needs to keep winning his matches if he is going to sneak into the top eight in the Race for London, but Tsonga has had the more difficult path through to this Semi Final.
With the confidence that Rafael Nadal is clearly feeling at the moment which is producing so much better length on his groundstrokes, I think he will get the better of Tsonga. The Frenchman can hope to serve massively to give himself a fighting chance, but the backhand wing will likely be exposed by the heavy Nadal forehand and I expect the latter breaks him down with a 75, 64 win.
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: Whenever Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray meet on a tennis court, you can guarantee it will be a close match for at least the first couple of sets. Andy Murray has certainly been getting closer to get over the final hurdle before his win over Djokovic at the Canadian Masters Final.
It will take something special for Murray to make it two in a row against Djokovic considering how well the latter has been playing over the last two weeks. Granted the majority of those players he beat were not to the level that Andy Murray can produce, but no one had won more than three games in a single set until Bernard Tomic got to a tie-breaker.
The Australian lost that set and then was beaten 6-1 in the second set and I think Djokovic has his confidence at an extremely high level. He always has to battle hard to knock off Murray, and the British player has been in very strong form himself this week, but it is hard to disregard how dominant Djokovic has been.
I imagine the first set will be closely contested but I do think Djokovic will manage to battle through it and then move away from Murray. It looks a great Semi Final for the neutrals to watch too, but Djokovic continuing his fine form by being too good in a 75, 64 win is my pick.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: There has been some good late season form shown by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and she has to be the favourite to go on and win the title in Linz. She hasn't dropped a set this week but now she faces an opponent in Kirsten Flipkens who also is yet to drop a set and looks in decent form herself.
However, Pavlyuchenkova has the bigger serve and the power from the back of the court to see off Flipkens as long as she is able to deal with the variation the Belgian player brings.
That hasn't proved to be a problem for her in the past as Pavlyuchenkova has won the two previous matches between these players. That includes a crushing win in Baku just a couple of months ago and I think she has produced the better tennis of the two players recently which should help the Russian move through to the Final.
I expect Pavlyuchenkova to create the break point chances to win the match and I am expecting her to do that in straight sets. A 64, 64 win for Pavlyuchenkova would see her through comfortably enough and looks the most likely scoreline to come out of the match.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: Two players chasing a place in the WTA Finals meet in a big Semi Final with just a couple of weeks until that tournament begins. Out of the two players, I am finding it hard to look past Agnieszka Radwanska to beat Karolina Pliskova on the recent form that both players have been producing.
She has dominated the head to head with Pliskova having won all four previous matches including one in Tokyo just a couple of weeks ago. All eight sets they have competed have gone to Radwanska who has won the title in Tokyo and made the Semi Final in Beijing which has given her a chance to finish in a top eight position and a place in the Tour Finals.
You can't argue with what Pliskova has produced this week and she has won titles this year, but her failures in the Grand Slams has to be a big disappointment. The serve is effective, but Pliskova plays with such little margin for error that she can suddenly move into a 'cold streak' and fall away in matches.
I think the Radwanska serve gives her a chance to stay competitive in this one, but she will still eventually go down 75, 63 and I will back the Pole to cover.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-8, - 3 Units (32 Units Staked, - 9.38% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Shanghai Masters. Show all posts
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Saturday, 17 October 2015
Wednesday, 14 October 2015
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (October 15th)
It can only be described as a frustrating Wednesday with too many of the matches getting to the brink of success only to fall through the trapdoor in the final moments of the matches. Second set tie-breakers were a particular disappointment as both Milos Raonic and Dominic Thiem failed to see out their matches at that moment when they had their chances to do so.
Break points came and went for Thiem through the match, as it did in the second set for Sam Stosur who missed the cover by one game thanks to one break from five chances in the second set.
It doesn't help that a couple of the picks were just plain terrible and resulted in a pretty poor day.
You can see that the players are taking this week very seriously though and only Roger Federer and David Ferrer have missed making the Third Round in Shanghai of the top sixteen Seeds. With those players from fifth down to sixteen all still believing they can make a run for the final places in the World Tour Finals, the importance of matches in the next couple of days are going to be increased as each Round is completed.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: On the face of things this might look like a lot of games for Novak Djokovic to cover against a dangerous player like Feliciano Lopez. However, Djokovic has been playing like a man possessed over the last couple of weeks and hasn't been just winning matches, but winning matches while barely dropping any games.
They had a pretty intense match at the US Open which was decided in four sets in favour of Novak Djokovic and that also means the World Number 1 has won all six previous matches against Lopez.
Even the match at the US Open looked like it was going to be a comfortable day in the office for Djokovic when he took the first set 61, but the second set saw Lopez take one of the few chances he had on the day to rebound. The way that Djokovic is playing at the moment suggests he won't take his eye off the ball in this one like he might have done at the US Open and the Serb has been blowing people away on the courts when he has got his nose in front.
As well as Lopez can serve at times, Djokovic is the type of returner that will make him work for everything he earns and I wouldn't be surprised if he comes through with another win by a comfortable margin.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Kevin Anderson: About the only pick that went right on Wednesday was backing Nick Kyrgios and the games against Kei Nishikori and the Australian duly covered. However, you have to credit Nishikori for overcoming a poor first set and eventually taking control of the match while not allowing Kyrgios' antics to affect his mind.
My one concern with backing Kei Nishikori at any time is knowing the serve can be a weakness and there are some players on the Tour you simply don't want to spot a lead. Kevin Anderson has a huge serve and is a decent front runner, but I still think his game is fairly limited even if he has broken into the World Top Ten for the first time in his career.
Personally I don't think he will be a long-term fixture in that part of the World Rankings but he has to be given some credit for the consistency that has taken him that high. While he did have a big win over Andy Murray at the US Open to finally make a Grand Slam Quarter Final, Anderson has usually found the very best players on the Tour a little too good.
That includes Nishikori who has won all three previous matches and would have covered this number of games in their last two matches. With the return of serve that Nishikori has, I expect he will be able to force some break points in this match and I like his chances to wear down Anderson and take a big step towards the World Tour Finals with a win over one of the chasing pack.
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: Stan Wawrinka might already have booked his place in the World Tour Finals, but I don't expect he is going to have any less motivation to use his momentum to end the season on a positive note. There is still every chance he can end the year higher than Roger Federer in the World Rankings, especially as the latter has already exited Shanghai, and that should be enough for Wawrinka to want to push on.
He showed by winning the title in Tokyo last week that the desire is still there, although he will also be aware of the need for the Ranking points this week in Shanghai that Marin Cilic will be desiring. Cilic still has a real chance of making the Tour Finals himself, but I think he will need to have picked up his level to compete with Wawrinka here.
You can't ignore the fact that Wawrinka has won the last four matches between these players and there is no doubting that he has been in better form than Cilic. Aside from the surprise run at the US Open, for the second season in a row no less, Cilic has struggled to reach the business end of big tournaments against the top players.
Cilic has played well this week, but not against players of the level of a confident Stan Wawrinka and I think the higher Seeded player will wear him down in a 76, 64 win.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: I would love to say I was simply surprised that Bernard Tomic beat David Ferrer on Wednesday, but the manner of the win was even more of an eyebrow-raiser for me and it will be interesting to see if he can back that up in the Third Round.
Now he faces Richard Gasquet who dominated Tomic at the US Open in a straight sets win to improve to six wins from seven matches against the Australian.
Gasquet has had two solid wins behind him this week, but Tomic's wins are definitely the more impressive, especially the manner in which they have come. However, it is Gasquet who has regularly got the better of Tomic after coming through a lot of tight first sets and I think his motivation to get to the Tour Finals again will propel him through a difficult Third Round match.
Backing up the kind of win Tomic had on Wednesday will be tough for the youngster who has been picking Doubles duty this week too. Both of these players can have issues with their serve at times, but Gasquet should be the better of the two players in the longer rallies which should give him the edge in the match.
Of course I felt David Ferrer would be better than Tomic in the rallies on Wednesday, but I am not completely sold on the Australian and like Gasquet to find a 76, 63 win.
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 games v Milos Raonic: 2015 has been a difficult season for Rafael Nadal and it might have been easy for him to get to Shanghai and struggle to get over the disappointment of another one-sided defeat to Novak Djokovic. Playing someone as awkward as Ivo Karlovic in the Second Round was another issue for Nadal to contend with, but he actually played pretty well and deserved to move through.
Now he faces another big server in Milos Raonic who had to dig deep to beat Nadal's compatriot Roberto Bautista Agut in the Second Round. Raonic has had to win two long matches to get into the Third Round and he might find it difficult to back up his over Nadal from when they met at Indian Wells back in March.
The conditions here are different to Indian Wells and Nadal might have a little more joy getting the serve back in play, although that remains a huge weapon for Raonic. When he serves well it can be almost impossible to contain Raonic, but I have liked the way Nadal has played the last ten days.
He looked more in tune with what he wanted to do on the court in the win over Karlovic and I think the confidence is definitely improving, enough to see him cover this small number of his way to beating Raonic and moving into his second successive Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-5, - 4.98 Units (16 Units Staked, - 31.13% Yield)
Break points came and went for Thiem through the match, as it did in the second set for Sam Stosur who missed the cover by one game thanks to one break from five chances in the second set.
It doesn't help that a couple of the picks were just plain terrible and resulted in a pretty poor day.
You can see that the players are taking this week very seriously though and only Roger Federer and David Ferrer have missed making the Third Round in Shanghai of the top sixteen Seeds. With those players from fifth down to sixteen all still believing they can make a run for the final places in the World Tour Finals, the importance of matches in the next couple of days are going to be increased as each Round is completed.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: On the face of things this might look like a lot of games for Novak Djokovic to cover against a dangerous player like Feliciano Lopez. However, Djokovic has been playing like a man possessed over the last couple of weeks and hasn't been just winning matches, but winning matches while barely dropping any games.
They had a pretty intense match at the US Open which was decided in four sets in favour of Novak Djokovic and that also means the World Number 1 has won all six previous matches against Lopez.
Even the match at the US Open looked like it was going to be a comfortable day in the office for Djokovic when he took the first set 61, but the second set saw Lopez take one of the few chances he had on the day to rebound. The way that Djokovic is playing at the moment suggests he won't take his eye off the ball in this one like he might have done at the US Open and the Serb has been blowing people away on the courts when he has got his nose in front.
As well as Lopez can serve at times, Djokovic is the type of returner that will make him work for everything he earns and I wouldn't be surprised if he comes through with another win by a comfortable margin.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Kevin Anderson: About the only pick that went right on Wednesday was backing Nick Kyrgios and the games against Kei Nishikori and the Australian duly covered. However, you have to credit Nishikori for overcoming a poor first set and eventually taking control of the match while not allowing Kyrgios' antics to affect his mind.
My one concern with backing Kei Nishikori at any time is knowing the serve can be a weakness and there are some players on the Tour you simply don't want to spot a lead. Kevin Anderson has a huge serve and is a decent front runner, but I still think his game is fairly limited even if he has broken into the World Top Ten for the first time in his career.
Personally I don't think he will be a long-term fixture in that part of the World Rankings but he has to be given some credit for the consistency that has taken him that high. While he did have a big win over Andy Murray at the US Open to finally make a Grand Slam Quarter Final, Anderson has usually found the very best players on the Tour a little too good.
That includes Nishikori who has won all three previous matches and would have covered this number of games in their last two matches. With the return of serve that Nishikori has, I expect he will be able to force some break points in this match and I like his chances to wear down Anderson and take a big step towards the World Tour Finals with a win over one of the chasing pack.
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: Stan Wawrinka might already have booked his place in the World Tour Finals, but I don't expect he is going to have any less motivation to use his momentum to end the season on a positive note. There is still every chance he can end the year higher than Roger Federer in the World Rankings, especially as the latter has already exited Shanghai, and that should be enough for Wawrinka to want to push on.
He showed by winning the title in Tokyo last week that the desire is still there, although he will also be aware of the need for the Ranking points this week in Shanghai that Marin Cilic will be desiring. Cilic still has a real chance of making the Tour Finals himself, but I think he will need to have picked up his level to compete with Wawrinka here.
You can't ignore the fact that Wawrinka has won the last four matches between these players and there is no doubting that he has been in better form than Cilic. Aside from the surprise run at the US Open, for the second season in a row no less, Cilic has struggled to reach the business end of big tournaments against the top players.
Cilic has played well this week, but not against players of the level of a confident Stan Wawrinka and I think the higher Seeded player will wear him down in a 76, 64 win.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: I would love to say I was simply surprised that Bernard Tomic beat David Ferrer on Wednesday, but the manner of the win was even more of an eyebrow-raiser for me and it will be interesting to see if he can back that up in the Third Round.
Now he faces Richard Gasquet who dominated Tomic at the US Open in a straight sets win to improve to six wins from seven matches against the Australian.
Gasquet has had two solid wins behind him this week, but Tomic's wins are definitely the more impressive, especially the manner in which they have come. However, it is Gasquet who has regularly got the better of Tomic after coming through a lot of tight first sets and I think his motivation to get to the Tour Finals again will propel him through a difficult Third Round match.
Backing up the kind of win Tomic had on Wednesday will be tough for the youngster who has been picking Doubles duty this week too. Both of these players can have issues with their serve at times, but Gasquet should be the better of the two players in the longer rallies which should give him the edge in the match.
Of course I felt David Ferrer would be better than Tomic in the rallies on Wednesday, but I am not completely sold on the Australian and like Gasquet to find a 76, 63 win.
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 games v Milos Raonic: 2015 has been a difficult season for Rafael Nadal and it might have been easy for him to get to Shanghai and struggle to get over the disappointment of another one-sided defeat to Novak Djokovic. Playing someone as awkward as Ivo Karlovic in the Second Round was another issue for Nadal to contend with, but he actually played pretty well and deserved to move through.
Now he faces another big server in Milos Raonic who had to dig deep to beat Nadal's compatriot Roberto Bautista Agut in the Second Round. Raonic has had to win two long matches to get into the Third Round and he might find it difficult to back up his over Nadal from when they met at Indian Wells back in March.
The conditions here are different to Indian Wells and Nadal might have a little more joy getting the serve back in play, although that remains a huge weapon for Raonic. When he serves well it can be almost impossible to contain Raonic, but I have liked the way Nadal has played the last ten days.
He looked more in tune with what he wanted to do on the court in the win over Karlovic and I think the confidence is definitely improving, enough to see him cover this small number of his way to beating Raonic and moving into his second successive Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 2.15 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-5, - 4.98 Units (16 Units Staked, - 31.13% Yield)
Tuesday, 13 October 2015
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (October 14th)
The tennis season might be winding down, but that doesn't mean there isn't time for more surprising results and not many would surprise more than Albert Ramos beating Roger Federer in the Second Round in Shanghai.
However, Bautista Agut is a fairly simple player and that is usually not enough to beat the very best players on the Tour. He has lost his two previous matches against Milos Raonic including a 62, 76 defeat in St Petersburg last month and it is tough for the Spaniard who has to work hard to hold serve compared with Raonic.
Federer was the defending Champion coming into the tournament and would have wanted a deep run to try and earn back his World Number 2 Ranking, but that looks unlikely now with Andy Murray only defending a Third Round run here and likely to build a big enough lead to maintain his position going into the 2016 season.
That will be of importance when it comes to the Australian Open draw in January as Federer could now be forced to play Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final rather than having the chance to meet him in the Final as he has in the last two Grand Slam events. I don't think it is a particular worry for Federer who will likely be at his best in the second half of the season as he was this year as he looks to add another Grand Slam title to the seventeen he has previously won.
At this stage of his career, the World Ranking will look after itself and Federer doesn't really pay as much attention to that as he does in trying to win a Slam.
It is a disappointing loss for Federer, but the players chasing their place in London for the World Tour Finals have all moved through and remain alive in Shanghai. Marin Cilic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga hold the edge with their places in the Third Round secured, but Richard Gasquet, John Isner, Milos Raonic, Kevin Anderson and Gilles Simon will all be hoping to join them on Wednesday.
Nick Kyrgios + 3.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Nick Kyrgios is a controversial figure on the ATP Tour at the moment, but you can't deny that he brings in the crowds who want to see what he is going to do next. He still has to harness the talent he clearly has in the correct way to really push on as a true contender for the big titles on the Tour and there is no doubting how tough this Second Round match against Kei Nishikori will be.
Consistency and speed around the court are the big attributes that Nishikori has, while he can also be a decent enough returner to give Kyrgios something to think about. Both players are off disappointing three set losses to the same player, Benoit Paire, in Tokyo, but both have also shown some decent form which makes this a very interesting opening match in Shanghai.
Kyrgios had a very impressive First Round win which means he should be very aware of the kind of conditions in Shanghai this year, while his serve does give him a chance to run through some service games very quickly. He can sometimes play the low percentage shot that will get him into trouble against someone like Nishikori who will thrive on keeping the ball in play and wearing down opponents.
However, I also think Kyrgios is flashy enough to hit a few winners off the return of serve and earn his break point chances in this one too. As long as Kyrgios remains mentally focused, which is certainly not always the case, I think he can win at least a set in this one and that might make this number of games being received too appealing to ignore.
David Ferrer - 3.5 games v Bernard Tomic: I like one Australian youngster to make a match of it on Wednesday, but I think the other in action will have a more difficult day in the office. Bernard Tomic might have beaten David Ferrer when they last met earlier in the season, but the latter has looked in very good form of late and has to be favoured.
Ferrer might be coming off a 62, 63 loss to Novak Djokovic, but no other player won more games than him against the World Number 1 in Beijing and Ferrer had also won the title in Kuala Lumper the week before. After missing a large chunk of the season with an injury, the fact that the Spaniard is still one of the favourites to book a place at the World Tour Finals shows how well he has done when actually out on court.
The defeat to Djokovic is understandable and Ferrer has been a pretty convincing winner in the other matches he has played the last couple of weeks. When Ferrer is in this kind of form, someone like Bernard Tomic can have a difficult task in front of them to slow him down.
I think Tomic is talented, but he gets too comfortable becoming involved in rallies and I can't say I could favour him to win enough of those against Ferrer. Tomic also doesn't make full use of his height when it comes to the serve and I like Ferrer's chances of getting involved in rallies and eventually taking charge of those which will result in a 75, 64 kind of win for him and another step towards the World Tour Finals.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Jack Sock: A strong week in Shanghai will likely be enough for Tomas Berdych to earn his place in the World Tour Finals and I don't think an early exit in Beijing is too much to worry about. Just two days prior to that loss, Tomas Berdych was winning a delayed Final in Shenzhen so it wasn't a big surprise he was off his game against Pablo Cuevas.
There are no such excuses this week as Berdych would have had plenty of time to recover his energy levels after the early defeat in Beijing. He has been in solid form having won Shenzhen without dropping a set, but early defeats have been something that Berdych has had to deal with in the two tournaments around that title win.
He will have to be on his game if he is going to beat Jack Sock, a player that is perhaps still flying under the radar for casual fans. The serve and big forehand combination is a dangerous one, but Sock's backhand is still a liability at times and that is where the consistent Berdych will have his joy in this match.
Both players will rely on a big serve to set up their service games, but I think Berdych will have enough in the locker to force rallies to go towards the Sock backhand and I like him to find a couple of breaks in a 64, 64 win.
Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: It was a disappointing loss for Milos Raonic in Beijing last week which might be the fatal blow to his chances of reaching the World Tour Finals. However, Raonic knows there is still a chance for him if he can have three strong tournaments to finish the season beginning with this one in Shanghai.
The Masters events means there is very rarely an 'easy' opening match for the Seeds as they receive a bye into the Second Round. That means they play an opponent who is ready to compete in the conditions and Roberto Bautista Agut is consistent enough to give any player off their game trouble on the court.
However, Bautista Agut is a fairly simple player and that is usually not enough to beat the very best players on the Tour. He has lost his two previous matches against Milos Raonic including a 62, 76 defeat in St Petersburg last month and it is tough for the Spaniard who has to work hard to hold serve compared with Raonic.
That scoreboard pressure builds up and I think Raonic will find a way to earn break points and eventually get through the Spaniard here 76, 64.
Dominic Thiem v Feliciano Lopez: I am a big fan of Dominic Thiem and I am expecting him to push on up the World Rankings next year after a successful 2015 season. He does need to improve on some surfaces, particularly grass, but Thiem has the all court game that certainly looks like producing a top ten player on the Tour and perhaps even more.
He has a big Second Round match against Feliciano Lopez who reached the Quarter Final at the US Open and then the Final in Kuala Lumper so clearly a player in form. However, it is Thiem who has won the three previous matches between the players including both in 2015 and I think he can produce enough quality tennis to maintain that run of wins.
Consistency is still an issue for Thiem who has perhaps lost to some opponents that I might not consider he should be at this stage of his career. I don't think Lopez is a definitely a player he should be beating, but Thiem likes to raise his level against the better players too and I do think he can come through this one in three sets.
Lopez has been in some good form and can be a very dangerous opponent when he is serving well, but Thiem has enjoyed this match up and I'll back him to make it through to the Third Round.
Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Monica Puig: It hasn't been the most productive part of the season for Sam Stosur, but I still think the veteran Australian can prove too good for Monica Puig in this Second Round match in Hong Kong.
This has regularly been a good match up for Stosur who has beaten Puig three times since the beginning of the 2014 season and she has never lost more than four games in a match in those wins. The strengths of the Stosur game are clear to everyone, but it clearly is a tough proposition for Puig whose defence isn't really good enough on the court.
When she gets on the front foot, Puig is a dangerous player, but Stosur's serve makes it tough for her to get forward on that shot. Puig's game is also very low percentage and that means she is more likely to make mistakes that Stosur can then thrive upon and consolidate with her own serve.
The numbers don't lie when these players meet and the fact is that Puig has won just 2 breaks of serve in her three matches against Stosur. The Australian has won at least 54% of the points on the Puig serve in all of those matches, while Puig has failed to surpass 35% against the Stosur serve.
Neither player can really point to having much more confidence than the other on recent form and I think it might end up being similar to previous matches with Stosur winning this one comfortably enough.
Sam Stosur - 4.5 games v Monica Puig: It hasn't been the most productive part of the season for Sam Stosur, but I still think the veteran Australian can prove too good for Monica Puig in this Second Round match in Hong Kong.
This has regularly been a good match up for Stosur who has beaten Puig three times since the beginning of the 2014 season and she has never lost more than four games in a match in those wins. The strengths of the Stosur game are clear to everyone, but it clearly is a tough proposition for Puig whose defence isn't really good enough on the court.
When she gets on the front foot, Puig is a dangerous player, but Stosur's serve makes it tough for her to get forward on that shot. Puig's game is also very low percentage and that means she is more likely to make mistakes that Stosur can then thrive upon and consolidate with her own serve.
The numbers don't lie when these players meet and the fact is that Puig has won just 2 breaks of serve in her three matches against Stosur. The Australian has won at least 54% of the points on the Puig serve in all of those matches, while Puig has failed to surpass 35% against the Stosur serve.
Neither player can really point to having much more confidence than the other on recent form and I think it might end up being similar to previous matches with Stosur winning this one comfortably enough.
MY PICKS: Nick Kyrgios + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-0, + 3.42 Units (4 Units Staked, + 85.5% Yield)
Monday, 12 October 2015
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (October 13th)
The 2015 tennis season is winding down and the next month is all about picking up the Ranking points to reach the Tour Finals on both the WTA and ATP Tour. While the WTA Tour has effectively played the last of the really big events, the 'Race for Singapore' still looks an intriguing one to the point that a few players have taken Wild Cards this week into events to earn the points they need.
There are only 700 points separating fifth place to sixteenth and the likes of Angelique Kerber, Agnieszka Radwanska, Flavia Pennetta and Venus Williams are out on the Tour to earn some valuable points this week. It might get even more interesting if the likes of Simona Halep, Maria Sharapova and Petra Kvitova decide they will follow Serena Williams' lead and pull out of Singapore as all three have been suffering injuries at the back end of the season.
Those three are part of the four players already confirming their place in Singapore so it could open the door further down the Race for other players to get involved.
The 'Race for London' on the ATP side of the Tour looks a little more clear cut, although the Shanghai Masters is offering 1000 points to the winner which could certainly change things. However, Richard Gasquet in ninth place is 1200 points behind David Ferrer and I am not sure there will be many out there that think Gasquet, John Isner, Kevin Anderson, Marin Cilic or Milos Raonic have a legitimate chance of winning the title here and making up some huge ground on the top eight players in the world.
It is more likely that the ninth place could be a vital one with Andy Murray suggesting he would miss the Tour Finals to prepare for the Davis Cup Final as the move onto the clay courts needs some adjustment time for him. That would open the door for someone outside of the top eight to make their way to London and might be the most interesting aspect of the 'Race' in the coming weeks.
Just over 400 points separates Gasquet in ninth place and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in fifteenth so that could be fun to see who can put together a solid month to move into a potential final spot in the Tour Finals.
No one can really rule out someone coming through the pack to take a surprise top eight place with two 1000 events and two 500 events upcoming, but I do think the top eight players will be 'comfortable' with the leads they have built. Four of the places have been taken and the likes of Tomas Berdych, Rafael Nadal and Kei Nishikori will know a big week in Shanghai will put them on the brink of qualification too, if not confirm those places, so it should be a fun week here.
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: It was a poor return to the Tour for Richard Gasquet who was beaten in his first match since reaching the US Open Quarter Final. That has dented his chances of reaching the World Tour Finals in London, but the Frenchman can still fight his way into the top eight if he can end this final month of the season in a positive manner.
His opening match in Shanghai could have been easier than the dangerous Gilles Muller who reached the Semi Final in Tokyo last week. Muller was a little fortunate to get as far as that considering the break point chances that players had against him prior to the Semi Final and even the close loss to Stan Wawrinka was actually pretty one-sided.
The lefty serve is a dominant shot for Muller when he brings his very best to the court and Muller will give Gasquet some problems trying to deal with that shot. However, this is a player that doesn't bring too many different looks to the court and Gasquet will likely be the better player as soon as the rally progresses beyond the fourth shot of the point.
This is a dangerous number if Muller is serving well because Richard Gasquet can sometimes be a little too loose when it comes to his own service games. He was playing very well in New York though and knows that Muller isn't the most effective returner, although someone who will take a chance to get to the net if he sees too many second serves.
After a tight battle in the first set which may need a tie-breaker to separate the players, I like Gasquet getting his 'Race for London' re-energised in a 76, 64 win.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: I have a lot of respect for the talent that Borna Coric clearly has at his disposal, but I think Marin Cilic will still have a little too much for his compatriot in this Second Round match. There will be something about playing a player that he might have looked up to for Coric to deal with and that has proven a difficulty in the initial meetings in the past for others.
Coric does come off a lot more confident than most though and I not entirely sure he will be overawed considering some of the wins he has put together over the last twelve months. He had an impressive win over Alexandr Dolgopolov in the First Round, but Coric needed to go into a final set tie-breaker to get things done.
That was the case for Marin Cilic on Monday too, although he would have had a lot less rest than Coric ahead of this match. Cilic can be a little loose on the court and that will give Coric a chance to earn a big win in this one, but the youngster is still trying to find his own consistency on the Tour.
He is going to grow into his body which will bring his power up to the level he will need on the Tour, but at the moment that side can be a little bit of weakness. Coric has the skills to take a set in this one, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was to lose a set by a couple of breaks of serve and Cilic should have enough for a 36, 62, 63 kind of win.
Anna Schmiedlova v Annika Beck: I thought Anna Schmiedlova would be a much healthier favourite to win this match than she is, especially as she has tended to play along with a much higher company of opponent than Annika Beck.
There aren't too many World Ranking places that separates these two players, but Beck was playing in Tashkent, where she reached the Quarter Final, while Schmiedlova was reaching a Quarter Final in Wuhan. An early defeat in Beijing is disappointing, but that means Schmiedlova shouldn't have any lingering jet lag issues from the travel back to Europe.
I think there is more potential in the Schmiedlova game too and I believe she has a more effective serve which should keep her nose in front during this match. Schmiedlova has won the two previous matches between these players and I like her consistency from the back of the court which should see her overcome Beck.
Maybe this match goes the distance, but Schmiedlova coming through with a win looks a generous price to me.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Anna Schmiedlova @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Final: 11-10, - 1.82 Units (42 Units Staked, - 4.33% Yield)
Season 2015: - 1.27 Units (1652 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 games v Gilles Muller: It was a poor return to the Tour for Richard Gasquet who was beaten in his first match since reaching the US Open Quarter Final. That has dented his chances of reaching the World Tour Finals in London, but the Frenchman can still fight his way into the top eight if he can end this final month of the season in a positive manner.
His opening match in Shanghai could have been easier than the dangerous Gilles Muller who reached the Semi Final in Tokyo last week. Muller was a little fortunate to get as far as that considering the break point chances that players had against him prior to the Semi Final and even the close loss to Stan Wawrinka was actually pretty one-sided.
The lefty serve is a dominant shot for Muller when he brings his very best to the court and Muller will give Gasquet some problems trying to deal with that shot. However, this is a player that doesn't bring too many different looks to the court and Gasquet will likely be the better player as soon as the rally progresses beyond the fourth shot of the point.
This is a dangerous number if Muller is serving well because Richard Gasquet can sometimes be a little too loose when it comes to his own service games. He was playing very well in New York though and knows that Muller isn't the most effective returner, although someone who will take a chance to get to the net if he sees too many second serves.
After a tight battle in the first set which may need a tie-breaker to separate the players, I like Gasquet getting his 'Race for London' re-energised in a 76, 64 win.
Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: I have a lot of respect for the talent that Borna Coric clearly has at his disposal, but I think Marin Cilic will still have a little too much for his compatriot in this Second Round match. There will be something about playing a player that he might have looked up to for Coric to deal with and that has proven a difficulty in the initial meetings in the past for others.
Coric does come off a lot more confident than most though and I not entirely sure he will be overawed considering some of the wins he has put together over the last twelve months. He had an impressive win over Alexandr Dolgopolov in the First Round, but Coric needed to go into a final set tie-breaker to get things done.
That was the case for Marin Cilic on Monday too, although he would have had a lot less rest than Coric ahead of this match. Cilic can be a little loose on the court and that will give Coric a chance to earn a big win in this one, but the youngster is still trying to find his own consistency on the Tour.
He is going to grow into his body which will bring his power up to the level he will need on the Tour, but at the moment that side can be a little bit of weakness. Coric has the skills to take a set in this one, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was to lose a set by a couple of breaks of serve and Cilic should have enough for a 36, 62, 63 kind of win.
Anna Schmiedlova v Annika Beck: I thought Anna Schmiedlova would be a much healthier favourite to win this match than she is, especially as she has tended to play along with a much higher company of opponent than Annika Beck.
There aren't too many World Ranking places that separates these two players, but Beck was playing in Tashkent, where she reached the Quarter Final, while Schmiedlova was reaching a Quarter Final in Wuhan. An early defeat in Beijing is disappointing, but that means Schmiedlova shouldn't have any lingering jet lag issues from the travel back to Europe.
I think there is more potential in the Schmiedlova game too and I believe she has a more effective serve which should keep her nose in front during this match. Schmiedlova has won the two previous matches between these players and I like her consistency from the back of the court which should see her overcome Beck.
Maybe this match goes the distance, but Schmiedlova coming through with a win looks a generous price to me.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Anna Schmiedlova @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Final: 11-10, - 1.82 Units (42 Units Staked, - 4.33% Yield)
Season 2015: - 1.27 Units (1652 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Saturday, 12 October 2013
Tennis Picks Shanghai Masters 2013 (October 12th)
It has to be considered a disappointing day when the picks go 1-2, but I am not quite sure how Novak Djokovic didn't find a couple of breaks of serve in the final set against Gael Monfils who looked out on his feet when I saw the match this evening.
It's not like he didn't have his chances with break points and chances at 0-30, but Novak didn't return as well as he can, while the first set was lost thanks to some poor serving.
However, we are still on for the Final that everyone is looking forward to between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, although both will need to come through tough Semi Final matches on Saturday.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Jo Wilfried-Tsonga: Novak Djokovic didn't serve well in the first set and could have returned better at points yesterday, but I expect a better performance from him against an opponent he has dominated in his most recent matches against him.
Djokovic has the tools to cancel out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's big game and the Frenchman can be guilty of losing his way mentally when he has come up against Djokovic in their recent matches. The shelling he took at the Indian Wells tournament earlier this season looks an exception, but there have been a number of 6-2 or better sets in favour of Djokovic in the last 6 matches between the players.
The courts in Shanghai will help Tsonga get the most out of his big forehand and heavy serve, but the backhand is far too hit and miss to challenge Djokovic and that means Tsonga has to dictate the points from start to finish if he is to hide his weakness from the match.
Tsonga's return of serve can also be below average at times and I think he may find Djokovic too good and I expect the Serb to come through 76, 62.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It was an impressive win for Juan Martin Del Potro over Nicolas Almagro yesterday and the Argentine is clearly in good form having won in Tokyo last week.
The win also almost guaranteed Del Potro a place at the World Tour Finals next month, but he may find it tough to back up his win against Rafael Nadal in this one. I still don't believe that Del Potro is at full health following his illness earlier this week and that should give Nadal a real edge in this match.
Del Potro's big serve will give him the chance to set up points in this match, although he has to be wary with the way Nadal has been playing and the manner in which he is crushing his own forehand. That has shown up on the quicker courts and there is no player in better form that Nadal at the moment.
Much like the first Semi Final, I can see the first set ending in a tie-break but won by the favourite and that may see the opponent lose their belief a touch and allow the favourite to pull away. Rafael Nadal has been looking after his own serve this week and I think he will prove to be a little too good for a slightly under par Del Potro and come through 76, 63.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-8, + 3.74 Units (32 Units Staked, + 11.69% Yield)
It's not like he didn't have his chances with break points and chances at 0-30, but Novak didn't return as well as he can, while the first set was lost thanks to some poor serving.
However, we are still on for the Final that everyone is looking forward to between Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, although both will need to come through tough Semi Final matches on Saturday.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Jo Wilfried-Tsonga: Novak Djokovic didn't serve well in the first set and could have returned better at points yesterday, but I expect a better performance from him against an opponent he has dominated in his most recent matches against him.
Djokovic has the tools to cancel out Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's big game and the Frenchman can be guilty of losing his way mentally when he has come up against Djokovic in their recent matches. The shelling he took at the Indian Wells tournament earlier this season looks an exception, but there have been a number of 6-2 or better sets in favour of Djokovic in the last 6 matches between the players.
The courts in Shanghai will help Tsonga get the most out of his big forehand and heavy serve, but the backhand is far too hit and miss to challenge Djokovic and that means Tsonga has to dictate the points from start to finish if he is to hide his weakness from the match.
Tsonga's return of serve can also be below average at times and I think he may find Djokovic too good and I expect the Serb to come through 76, 62.
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: It was an impressive win for Juan Martin Del Potro over Nicolas Almagro yesterday and the Argentine is clearly in good form having won in Tokyo last week.
The win also almost guaranteed Del Potro a place at the World Tour Finals next month, but he may find it tough to back up his win against Rafael Nadal in this one. I still don't believe that Del Potro is at full health following his illness earlier this week and that should give Nadal a real edge in this match.
Del Potro's big serve will give him the chance to set up points in this match, although he has to be wary with the way Nadal has been playing and the manner in which he is crushing his own forehand. That has shown up on the quicker courts and there is no player in better form that Nadal at the moment.
Much like the first Semi Final, I can see the first set ending in a tie-break but won by the favourite and that may see the opponent lose their belief a touch and allow the favourite to pull away. Rafael Nadal has been looking after his own serve this week and I think he will prove to be a little too good for a slightly under par Del Potro and come through 76, 63.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-8, + 3.74 Units (32 Units Staked, + 11.69% Yield)
Friday, 11 October 2013
Tennis Picks Shanghai Masters 2013 (October 11th)
It was a strange Thursday in Shanghai as a number of underdogs proceeded to make matches competitive, while some even went as far as to pull the upset.
That didn't help the picks although it has still been a strong week so far as we reach the Quarter Final stage of the penultimate Masters tournament of the season.
We also have been given a little more clarity as to which players will be going through to London for the World Tour Finals next month- Stanislas Wawrinka had a very important win over Milos Raonic which will give him a strong opportunity to get through to his first end of season appearance.
Interestingly, he will also be moving ahead of Roger Federer in terms of points earned this season after the former World Number 1 was beaten in the Third Round yesterday and that has once again raised questions as to how long Federer will continue playing.
It is about as low as his confidence has been since he started winning Grand Slam titles and even three/four years ago, there was a different feel to watching Federer- back then he may not have been hanging with the likes of Rafael Nadal, but he wasn't losing as many matches against players he would have walked through as he is these days.
Gael Monfils isn't an average player, but he hasn't shown a lot in 2013 and other defeats to the likes of Daniel Brands, Sergiy Stakhovsky and Federico Delbonis are certainly more worrying than the one he had yesterday. Federer's confidence looks shot and he is now in a battle to make it to London at the end of the season, although he does benefit from the fact that Andy Murray has pulled out of the tournament.
I don't think anyone should tell Federer when it is time to hang up his racquet for good, but it will be interesting to see what his motivation will be to continue as he is quite a way behind the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Murray when it comes to potential Grand Slam winners, including at his beloved Wimbledon, and the drop in the Ranking just puts up more obstacles in front of him.
For now, Federer will get to spend some time at home before the Basel tournament and then he will head to Paris in a bid to get the points he needs to finish in the top 9 of the Race to London.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: It will take three really good weeks from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if he is to get involved in the World Tour Finals and he has a big chance to add some more points to his total by coming through this Quarter Final.
Tsonga met Florian Mayer in one of his first matches after recovering from injury which took away three months of the Frenchman's season and he had to come back from a set down to get the job done a couple of weeks ago.
I don't think Tsonga will need to go the distance this time although I don't want to under-estimate Mayer for the second time after his impressive and fairly comfortable win over David Ferrer yesterday. However, Tsonga's big game should work perfectly on these faster courts, although I am a little concerned with the return game of Tsonga which can be erratic at best.
The big first serve should set up easier points for Tsonga and I believe he should be able to come through 63, 76 as long as he doesn't waste the break point chances that come his way.
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: The fans might not have been too happy to see Tommy Haas pull out of his Third Round match yesterday, but Juan Martin Del Potro would have been very happy to have the rest and recuperation time that that afforded him.
Del Potro has been suffering from a flu/cold, while he also played a lot of tennis last week and the extra day off will have aided him in his recovery, although he now faces a pretty tough test in the form of Nicolas Almagro in this Quarter Final.
The two players met in the Semi Final in Tokyo last week and it took two tie-breakers to help Del Potro go through on the way to winning the tournament and this could be another close game between them. The courts will aid both players who have big serves and heavy groundstrokes and breaks of serve could certainly be a luxury in this one.
It will be interesting to see how Almagro comes out after winning a tight Third Round match against Tomas Berdych- it was a fairly long match and with less than a day of rest, it can be tough for players to pick up their play. Neither player is likely to play with a full tank, but Almagro certainly has been playing well enough to keep this very competitive.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Gael Monfils: It was a strong display from Gael Monfils to see off Roger Federer in the Third Round, but the level certainly rises another level as he takes on Novak Djokovic in this third Quarter Final.
There was a slight injury concern for Monfils in the win over Federer, but I wouldn't read too much into that if he does take the court despite the number of injury problems he has had over the last eighteen months and this is likely to be a fascinating match.
I don't think Monfils will be able to rely on the serve to bail him out in the same manner it did yesterday as Djokovic is a far better returner than Federer is and I can see the World Number 2 forcing the Frenchman to win the points and not give up too many cheap points.
After such a big win for Monfils yesterday, it wouldn't surprise me if he struggled to match that intensity in this one and I like Djokovic to win this 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 6.04 Units (26 Units Staked, + 23.23% Yield)
That didn't help the picks although it has still been a strong week so far as we reach the Quarter Final stage of the penultimate Masters tournament of the season.
We also have been given a little more clarity as to which players will be going through to London for the World Tour Finals next month- Stanislas Wawrinka had a very important win over Milos Raonic which will give him a strong opportunity to get through to his first end of season appearance.
Interestingly, he will also be moving ahead of Roger Federer in terms of points earned this season after the former World Number 1 was beaten in the Third Round yesterday and that has once again raised questions as to how long Federer will continue playing.
It is about as low as his confidence has been since he started winning Grand Slam titles and even three/four years ago, there was a different feel to watching Federer- back then he may not have been hanging with the likes of Rafael Nadal, but he wasn't losing as many matches against players he would have walked through as he is these days.
Gael Monfils isn't an average player, but he hasn't shown a lot in 2013 and other defeats to the likes of Daniel Brands, Sergiy Stakhovsky and Federico Delbonis are certainly more worrying than the one he had yesterday. Federer's confidence looks shot and he is now in a battle to make it to London at the end of the season, although he does benefit from the fact that Andy Murray has pulled out of the tournament.
I don't think anyone should tell Federer when it is time to hang up his racquet for good, but it will be interesting to see what his motivation will be to continue as he is quite a way behind the likes of Djokovic, Nadal and Murray when it comes to potential Grand Slam winners, including at his beloved Wimbledon, and the drop in the Ranking just puts up more obstacles in front of him.
For now, Federer will get to spend some time at home before the Basel tournament and then he will head to Paris in a bid to get the points he needs to finish in the top 9 of the Race to London.
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Florian Mayer: It will take three really good weeks from Jo-Wilfried Tsonga if he is to get involved in the World Tour Finals and he has a big chance to add some more points to his total by coming through this Quarter Final.
Tsonga met Florian Mayer in one of his first matches after recovering from injury which took away three months of the Frenchman's season and he had to come back from a set down to get the job done a couple of weeks ago.
I don't think Tsonga will need to go the distance this time although I don't want to under-estimate Mayer for the second time after his impressive and fairly comfortable win over David Ferrer yesterday. However, Tsonga's big game should work perfectly on these faster courts, although I am a little concerned with the return game of Tsonga which can be erratic at best.
The big first serve should set up easier points for Tsonga and I believe he should be able to come through 63, 76 as long as he doesn't waste the break point chances that come his way.
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: The fans might not have been too happy to see Tommy Haas pull out of his Third Round match yesterday, but Juan Martin Del Potro would have been very happy to have the rest and recuperation time that that afforded him.
Del Potro has been suffering from a flu/cold, while he also played a lot of tennis last week and the extra day off will have aided him in his recovery, although he now faces a pretty tough test in the form of Nicolas Almagro in this Quarter Final.
The two players met in the Semi Final in Tokyo last week and it took two tie-breakers to help Del Potro go through on the way to winning the tournament and this could be another close game between them. The courts will aid both players who have big serves and heavy groundstrokes and breaks of serve could certainly be a luxury in this one.
It will be interesting to see how Almagro comes out after winning a tight Third Round match against Tomas Berdych- it was a fairly long match and with less than a day of rest, it can be tough for players to pick up their play. Neither player is likely to play with a full tank, but Almagro certainly has been playing well enough to keep this very competitive.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Gael Monfils: It was a strong display from Gael Monfils to see off Roger Federer in the Third Round, but the level certainly rises another level as he takes on Novak Djokovic in this third Quarter Final.
There was a slight injury concern for Monfils in the win over Federer, but I wouldn't read too much into that if he does take the court despite the number of injury problems he has had over the last eighteen months and this is likely to be a fascinating match.
I don't think Monfils will be able to rely on the serve to bail him out in the same manner it did yesterday as Djokovic is a far better returner than Federer is and I can see the World Number 2 forcing the Frenchman to win the points and not give up too many cheap points.
After such a big win for Monfils yesterday, it wouldn't surprise me if he struggled to match that intensity in this one and I like Djokovic to win this 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-6, + 6.04 Units (26 Units Staked, + 23.23% Yield)
Thursday, 10 October 2013
Tennis Picks Shanghai Masters 2013 (October 10th)
It seemed to surprise a few people in the United Kingdon when Andy Murray confirmed that he won't be playing at the World Tour Finals in London next month, but I am not sure why so many didn't expect that news. The World Number 3 had surgery last month which a clear intention of being ready for the 2014 season, but it seems the exhibition matches he has organised at the end of November had given people false belief that Murray would play in London.
It was never going to be the case as Murray would be distinctly under-prepared to take on the eight best players in the World and there is far less pressure playing an exhibition match to get rid of any match rustiness than there is in front of a paying public expecting to see the home hope reaching the latter stages of a tournament.
Andy Murray's decision not only makes perfect sense to me, but it was one that I had foreseen for some time and I do wonder if the organisers of the World Tour Finals asked him to keep quiet for a month or so in case it hindered ticket sales? Of course there is no proof of that and the tournament does stand up on its own merits, but I have been surprised by how many people didn't expect this news to materialise.
Talking about the World Tour Finals, I am guessing it hasn't provided the motivation expected for some players as Richard Gasquet went out yesterday and was swiftly followed by John Isner on Wednesday. In all honesty, there are probably only two places to play for, although that could swiftly become one place if Roger Federer and Stanislas Wawrinka can get through to the Quarter Finals.
That place will likely be decided between Richard Gasquet, Milos Raonic and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, although things can change quickly in the space of three weeks that we have between now and London.
I am looking at a line up that has Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych, Roger Federer, Stanislas Wawrinka and one of the three players I mentioned and that should produce a strong week of tennis at the O2 Arena.
Tommy Haas v Juan Martin Del Potro: Everyone would have seen the head to head and the way that Juan Martin Del Potro has taken apart the Tommy Haas game in previous matches, but I think there are a couple of little factors that could see the edge fall in the favour of the veteran in this one.
For starters, it was only a late choke in the first set that prevented Tommy Haas taking his first set against Del Potro when they met in Washington during the summer and that match was far closer than the 76, 63 in favour of the Argentine suggests.
The second factor in this match is that Del Potro has been suffering with a flu or a cold and has admitted that he hasn't been sleeping much and not feeling at his best. Del Potro doubts he will have recovered in time for this match with around 24 hours between this match and him beating Philipp Kohlschreiber. He is also facing a player that has had an extra day of rest.
The third issue for Del Potro is he is coming off a week of winning a tournament in Tokyo, flying over to Shanghai and now not feeling at his best. He has also failed to produce consistently at the Masters level despite being a former Grand Slam Champion and all of this points to Haas having a much stronger chance than the layers may think.
Haas will have to serve well, but if he can find the form that helped him push Del Potro all the way in Washington, the German may just have enough in the tank to get the job done in this Third Round encounter.
Kei Nishikori win 2-1 v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Kei Nishikori has won all three matches against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and I think he will be able to make it four in a row in this one, although he will likely need three sets to get the job done.
The Japanese star also beat Tsonga here two years ago, coming back from a set down to get the job done.
Both players are very inconsistent, even within matches, and that is my sole reason for believing that this could see the first two sets split between them. Both are capable of putting together enough good tennis to string together games, but I have a sneaky feeling that Nishikori can make enough balls back in play to frustrate Tsonga and eventually prove a little too good.
Tsonga has come back in good fashion from a long lay off, but he has lost to players like Gilles Simon, and I consider Nishikori to be a slightly more effective player than him. The value looks to be on Nishikori to come through in three sets and I will have a small interest on that outcome.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: After what has been a confidence sapping kind of year and not playing for a few weeks since the US Open and another surprise defeat, it was no real surprise that Roger Federer played with a few nerves in his win over Andreas Seppi in the Second Round.
I have watched Federer many times this season and my main reason for his faltering form is a slight loss in his movement and some inaccuracies on his groundstrokes, particularly the once devastating forehand. At 32, there are going to be some physical decline for a player that has been on the Tour and winning as many matches as Federer has, but I have not ready to suggest he is no longer capable of mixing it with the best, although I doubt he can sustain the form required to win a Grand Slam these days.
Will being just another contender be enough for Federer? Having won 17 Grand Slam titles, I doubt that, and he will also have the motivation of trying to prevent someone like Rafael Nadal surpassing his own achievements by doing all he can to add to that number next season.
Federer played better as the match with Seppi wore on and that should put in a good place ahead of this Third Round match against Gael Monfils- the Frenchman has also had a turbulent 2013 season as injuries have taken their toll although it is good to see the always entertaining Monfils back on the court.
Being entertaining won't be enough to beat Federer and it is the former World Number 1 who I expect will come through this one. I believe Federer is more likely to get the best out of his serve compared with Monfils who can be erratic with his own. Of the two players, I would expect Federer to have the more opportunities to break serve and I think he backs up the performance against Seppi by setting up a potential Quarter Final with Novak Djokovic courtesy of a 64, 63 win.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Florian Mayer: David Ferrer hasn't been in great form since reaching the Final of the French Open in early June and there are possibly some signs that the Spaniard could be beginning to come back down the hill in his career.
He has been a great advertisement for hard work in tennis and deservedly reached the World Number 3 Ranking earlier this year, but Ferrer has lost some of the consistency that made him such a tough opponent to play.
Even with that in mind, I would think Ferrer is still going to be too good for Florian Mayer who doesn't have enough big shots in his locker to keep Ferrer on his toes. The German has a serve that won't generate a lot of free points and that means he has to grind out the points in long rallies which should suit David Ferrer.
I am not surprised that Ferrer has won the 4 matches between the pair as comfortably as he has and I would imagine another 63, 64 win could be on the cards for the Number 3 seed here.
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: It is almost two years since Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych had their disagreement at the Australian Open and it is a surprise that this is the first time they will play one another in 2013 after 6 matches last season.
It was Tomas Berdych who came through with 5 victories and he is favoured to do so again in this Third Round match, but I am expecting a close match between the players. It has been a down year for Nicolas Almagro and he had been on a long losing run before picking up some form over the last couple of weeks.
The courts are pretty quick here which will aid Almagro's big game and it could lead to a tight match between these players. However, it will be a big ask of Almagro to knock off Berdych if the latter is playing as well as he was on Wednesday when he beat Feliciano Lopez fairly comfortably.
I do think Almagro is a little more rounded off both wings than Lopez and he displayed a top performance when pushing Juan Martin Del Potro in Tokyo last week. He also does match up, for the most part, against Berdych and I wouldn't be surprised if we see tie-breaks and possibly a third set in this one.
MY PICKS: Tommy Haas @ 3.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Kei Nishikori win 2-1 @ 5.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters Update: 7-3, + 9.44 Units (19 Units Staked, + 49.68% Yield)
For starters, it was only a late choke in the first set that prevented Tommy Haas taking his first set against Del Potro when they met in Washington during the summer and that match was far closer than the 76, 63 in favour of the Argentine suggests.
The second factor in this match is that Del Potro has been suffering with a flu or a cold and has admitted that he hasn't been sleeping much and not feeling at his best. Del Potro doubts he will have recovered in time for this match with around 24 hours between this match and him beating Philipp Kohlschreiber. He is also facing a player that has had an extra day of rest.
The third issue for Del Potro is he is coming off a week of winning a tournament in Tokyo, flying over to Shanghai and now not feeling at his best. He has also failed to produce consistently at the Masters level despite being a former Grand Slam Champion and all of this points to Haas having a much stronger chance than the layers may think.
Haas will have to serve well, but if he can find the form that helped him push Del Potro all the way in Washington, the German may just have enough in the tank to get the job done in this Third Round encounter.
Kei Nishikori win 2-1 v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Kei Nishikori has won all three matches against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and I think he will be able to make it four in a row in this one, although he will likely need three sets to get the job done.
The Japanese star also beat Tsonga here two years ago, coming back from a set down to get the job done.
Both players are very inconsistent, even within matches, and that is my sole reason for believing that this could see the first two sets split between them. Both are capable of putting together enough good tennis to string together games, but I have a sneaky feeling that Nishikori can make enough balls back in play to frustrate Tsonga and eventually prove a little too good.
Tsonga has come back in good fashion from a long lay off, but he has lost to players like Gilles Simon, and I consider Nishikori to be a slightly more effective player than him. The value looks to be on Nishikori to come through in three sets and I will have a small interest on that outcome.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Gael Monfils: After what has been a confidence sapping kind of year and not playing for a few weeks since the US Open and another surprise defeat, it was no real surprise that Roger Federer played with a few nerves in his win over Andreas Seppi in the Second Round.
I have watched Federer many times this season and my main reason for his faltering form is a slight loss in his movement and some inaccuracies on his groundstrokes, particularly the once devastating forehand. At 32, there are going to be some physical decline for a player that has been on the Tour and winning as many matches as Federer has, but I have not ready to suggest he is no longer capable of mixing it with the best, although I doubt he can sustain the form required to win a Grand Slam these days.
Will being just another contender be enough for Federer? Having won 17 Grand Slam titles, I doubt that, and he will also have the motivation of trying to prevent someone like Rafael Nadal surpassing his own achievements by doing all he can to add to that number next season.
Federer played better as the match with Seppi wore on and that should put in a good place ahead of this Third Round match against Gael Monfils- the Frenchman has also had a turbulent 2013 season as injuries have taken their toll although it is good to see the always entertaining Monfils back on the court.
Being entertaining won't be enough to beat Federer and it is the former World Number 1 who I expect will come through this one. I believe Federer is more likely to get the best out of his serve compared with Monfils who can be erratic with his own. Of the two players, I would expect Federer to have the more opportunities to break serve and I think he backs up the performance against Seppi by setting up a potential Quarter Final with Novak Djokovic courtesy of a 64, 63 win.
David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Florian Mayer: David Ferrer hasn't been in great form since reaching the Final of the French Open in early June and there are possibly some signs that the Spaniard could be beginning to come back down the hill in his career.
He has been a great advertisement for hard work in tennis and deservedly reached the World Number 3 Ranking earlier this year, but Ferrer has lost some of the consistency that made him such a tough opponent to play.
Even with that in mind, I would think Ferrer is still going to be too good for Florian Mayer who doesn't have enough big shots in his locker to keep Ferrer on his toes. The German has a serve that won't generate a lot of free points and that means he has to grind out the points in long rallies which should suit David Ferrer.
I am not surprised that Ferrer has won the 4 matches between the pair as comfortably as he has and I would imagine another 63, 64 win could be on the cards for the Number 3 seed here.
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 games v Tomas Berdych: It is almost two years since Nicolas Almagro and Tomas Berdych had their disagreement at the Australian Open and it is a surprise that this is the first time they will play one another in 2013 after 6 matches last season.
It was Tomas Berdych who came through with 5 victories and he is favoured to do so again in this Third Round match, but I am expecting a close match between the players. It has been a down year for Nicolas Almagro and he had been on a long losing run before picking up some form over the last couple of weeks.
The courts are pretty quick here which will aid Almagro's big game and it could lead to a tight match between these players. However, it will be a big ask of Almagro to knock off Berdych if the latter is playing as well as he was on Wednesday when he beat Feliciano Lopez fairly comfortably.
I do think Almagro is a little more rounded off both wings than Lopez and he displayed a top performance when pushing Juan Martin Del Potro in Tokyo last week. He also does match up, for the most part, against Berdych and I wouldn't be surprised if we see tie-breaks and possibly a third set in this one.
MY PICKS: Tommy Haas @ 3.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Kei Nishikori win 2-1 @ 5.50 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro + 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters Update: 7-3, + 9.44 Units (19 Units Staked, + 49.68% Yield)
Thursday, 13 October 2011
Tennis Picks Thursday 13 October (Shanghai Masters)
Not quite the final outcome I was looking for yesterday as Fernando Verdasco won a tight first set against Juan Carlos Ferrero, but then proceeded to fall apart and lose in 3 sets.
It has been a strange tournament so far with big surprises, for example Kei Nishikori beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 3 sets, but the big favourites Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are still there and could only have shortened in the outright markets.
We have reached the last 16 now and my picks for Thursday are below:
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Rafael Nadal has been in very good form since the US Open and has not dropped off from that bad defeat to Novak Djokovic in the Final and he has plenty of ambitions to reach the Number 1 ranking in the World again.
He should be too strong for Florian Mayer, who surprised me in the last round by beating David Nalbandian, as the German's serve will not give him enough free points and I expect him to be ground down by the Spaniard.
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Bernard Tomic: I am not the biggest fan of backing Alexandr Dolgopolov because he can play so hot and cold at times that he is hard to read. However, he is a player that can build momentum in tournaments and I think he is in line for a big week.
Bernard Tomic has had a big win this week over Mardy Fish so confidence should be high in the young Australian, but he too is a player that has not gained the consistency in his play just yet and I have a feeling this could be after the Lord Mayor's show for him as he tries to build on the win over Fish.
Dolgopolov has taken care of Tomic twice before, both wins coming on the hard courts in Australia, and I think he can complete his hat-trick at a decent price.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters: 1-2, - 2.20 Units
It has been a strange tournament so far with big surprises, for example Kei Nishikori beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in 3 sets, but the big favourites Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are still there and could only have shortened in the outright markets.
We have reached the last 16 now and my picks for Thursday are below:
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Rafael Nadal has been in very good form since the US Open and has not dropped off from that bad defeat to Novak Djokovic in the Final and he has plenty of ambitions to reach the Number 1 ranking in the World again.
He should be too strong for Florian Mayer, who surprised me in the last round by beating David Nalbandian, as the German's serve will not give him enough free points and I expect him to be ground down by the Spaniard.
Alexandr Dolgopolov vs Bernard Tomic: I am not the biggest fan of backing Alexandr Dolgopolov because he can play so hot and cold at times that he is hard to read. However, he is a player that can build momentum in tournaments and I think he is in line for a big week.
Bernard Tomic has had a big win this week over Mardy Fish so confidence should be high in the young Australian, but he too is a player that has not gained the consistency in his play just yet and I have a feeling this could be after the Lord Mayor's show for him as he tries to build on the win over Fish.
Dolgopolov has taken care of Tomic twice before, both wins coming on the hard courts in Australia, and I think he can complete his hat-trick at a decent price.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters: 1-2, - 2.20 Units
Tuesday, 11 October 2011
Tennis Picks Wednesday 12 October (Shanghai Masters)
It was a mediocre start to the week as Feliciano Lopez covered the spread in his win over Janko Tipsarevic, but David Nalbandian was easily pushed aside by Florian Mayer. That leaves me with an extremely small loss for the day as the Masters event continues today.
Just before I get on with my picks from the Wednesday schedule, I would like to put down my two-cents on this whole story about the big players potentially 'striking' if things are not changed with the schedule.
Now, I want to begin by saying I love sports and I really respect the people that are capable of playing it at a high level, but all this nonsense about striking is beginning to get on my nerves.
Boris Becker was the latest former player to give his support to the players, but I find it astonishing that people being paid as well as they are find time to complain about things.
Yes, the schedule is tough, but there is little room for manoeuvre as far as the ATP are concerned... Well little room without a complete overhaul of what we have come to expect with the Australian Open in January, the French Open in May, Wimbledon in June and the US Open in September. None of these Grand Slams want to move so that means there is unlikely to be a major overhaul at any time soon.
So what are the players complaining about? They feel they have to play too much compulsory tennis, with the top players expected to play in 4 Grand Slams and 8 Masters events in the course of the season. Their results in 6 other tournaments are also counted, whether that comes from the 500 Events or the 250 Events is up to the player in question.
This is a lot of tennis, and they feel there is a need for a off-season as you get in most sports- however, my sympathy does not run that deep for them here.
First off, a lot of these players are subsidised to ridiculous levels to take part in the 'lesser' tournaments, while an exhibition tournament (without ranking points) in the Middle East is attended by top players at the beginning of January- they are given very generous appearance fees for such an event and shouldn't take part if there is too much tennis being played.
Straight away, I don't understand how they can complain about the amount of tennis being played, yet take up offers to appear in events that count for nothing- I don't begrudge someone making their money through their talents, but to then COMPLAIN about TOO MUCH tennis looks a little silly.
It is correct that there is only around 5 weeks between the end of the tennis season to the beginning of a new one, even less if players take part in the Final of the Davis Cup, but let's not skirt the amount of time the top players miss during the season.
There can be around a month after the Australian Open that the top players are not seen, and around 6 weeks after Wimbledon before they begin their US hard court challenge, so there are times DURING the season that they can recover from physical ailments.
I understand the complaints that were made at the US Open (while my favourite Grand Slam, the scheduling in the early stages leaves a lot to be desired), but even that tournament has to give way to TV demands, without which these tennis players would not be earning as much as they are right now.
A lot of these players are putting in a ton of hard work to get to where they are, but they need to perhaps be reminded of the hardship 'normal' people are going through to make ends meet and it these people that make tennis players millionaires.
I am just a little fed up with all this super rich people complaining about things when there are so many out there that just about feed a family of 4 after working five continuous shifts of 14 hours a day...
Tennis players, like other sports stars, are doing something they love and the complaints seem a little out of context with the grand scheme of things.
That is just my opinion on things, I don't think sports stars should be treated as robots at our beck and call, but to talk about strikes is beginning to get on my nerves a tad.
Picks will follow below once the prices and schedule for the days play are released:
Fernando Verdasco vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: I think Fernando Verdasco is being slightly underrated after his hammering at the hands of Tomas Berdych last week, but I think he is still good enough to take care of Juan Carlos Ferrero.
Verdasco has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the players and I think he will continue that run, albeit in 3 sets, and I don't think he should be dogged in this match up.
MY PICK: Fernando Verdasco @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters: 1-1, - 0.20 Units
Season Total: + 82.02 Units
Just before I get on with my picks from the Wednesday schedule, I would like to put down my two-cents on this whole story about the big players potentially 'striking' if things are not changed with the schedule.
Now, I want to begin by saying I love sports and I really respect the people that are capable of playing it at a high level, but all this nonsense about striking is beginning to get on my nerves.
Boris Becker was the latest former player to give his support to the players, but I find it astonishing that people being paid as well as they are find time to complain about things.
Yes, the schedule is tough, but there is little room for manoeuvre as far as the ATP are concerned... Well little room without a complete overhaul of what we have come to expect with the Australian Open in January, the French Open in May, Wimbledon in June and the US Open in September. None of these Grand Slams want to move so that means there is unlikely to be a major overhaul at any time soon.
So what are the players complaining about? They feel they have to play too much compulsory tennis, with the top players expected to play in 4 Grand Slams and 8 Masters events in the course of the season. Their results in 6 other tournaments are also counted, whether that comes from the 500 Events or the 250 Events is up to the player in question.
This is a lot of tennis, and they feel there is a need for a off-season as you get in most sports- however, my sympathy does not run that deep for them here.
First off, a lot of these players are subsidised to ridiculous levels to take part in the 'lesser' tournaments, while an exhibition tournament (without ranking points) in the Middle East is attended by top players at the beginning of January- they are given very generous appearance fees for such an event and shouldn't take part if there is too much tennis being played.
Straight away, I don't understand how they can complain about the amount of tennis being played, yet take up offers to appear in events that count for nothing- I don't begrudge someone making their money through their talents, but to then COMPLAIN about TOO MUCH tennis looks a little silly.
It is correct that there is only around 5 weeks between the end of the tennis season to the beginning of a new one, even less if players take part in the Final of the Davis Cup, but let's not skirt the amount of time the top players miss during the season.
There can be around a month after the Australian Open that the top players are not seen, and around 6 weeks after Wimbledon before they begin their US hard court challenge, so there are times DURING the season that they can recover from physical ailments.
I understand the complaints that were made at the US Open (while my favourite Grand Slam, the scheduling in the early stages leaves a lot to be desired), but even that tournament has to give way to TV demands, without which these tennis players would not be earning as much as they are right now.
A lot of these players are putting in a ton of hard work to get to where they are, but they need to perhaps be reminded of the hardship 'normal' people are going through to make ends meet and it these people that make tennis players millionaires.
I am just a little fed up with all this super rich people complaining about things when there are so many out there that just about feed a family of 4 after working five continuous shifts of 14 hours a day...
Tennis players, like other sports stars, are doing something they love and the complaints seem a little out of context with the grand scheme of things.
That is just my opinion on things, I don't think sports stars should be treated as robots at our beck and call, but to talk about strikes is beginning to get on my nerves a tad.
Picks will follow below once the prices and schedule for the days play are released:
Fernando Verdasco vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: I think Fernando Verdasco is being slightly underrated after his hammering at the hands of Tomas Berdych last week, but I think he is still good enough to take care of Juan Carlos Ferrero.
Verdasco has won 3 of the last 4 meetings between the players and I think he will continue that run, albeit in 3 sets, and I don't think he should be dogged in this match up.
MY PICK: Fernando Verdasco @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters: 1-1, - 0.20 Units
Season Total: + 82.02 Units
Monday, 10 October 2011
Tennis Picks Tuesday 11 October (Shanghai Masters)
It has been a while since I last played any tennis matches as we have had the break from the US Open while the tournaments being played have not really appealed to me too much.
However, we come to one of the final Masters Events of the season and I didn't make any outright picks as both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic pulled out with fatigue and injury, and that obviously means Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are the short priced favourites to win the tournament.
4 of the top 10 are missing this week, while the dangerous Juan Martin Del Potro is not playing either, so the prices were significantly short on the top two players and I decided to give the outright market a miss.
I expect both Murray and Nadal to go close this week, if not win the tournament, but I will stick to the daily picks and hopefully keep the profit going upwards as the season draws to a close.
On to the Picks:
Feliciano Lopez + 3 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic has been in the better form of late after winning a tournament in Kuala Lumpur, but Feliciano Lopez has the game to give him plenty of fits as he can win plenty of free point off his booming serve if it is on its game.
Lopez is a former Semi Finalist in this tournament, and he holds a 4-1 head to head record against Tipsarevic so I think he can at least keep this match close, hopefully pushing it to 3 sets if he does lose.
Tipsarevic does have the potential of making the World Tour Finals if he absolutely aces the last few weeks of the season, but this looks like being a tough 1st Round encounter for him so I will take the games.
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Nalbandian has been playing some good tennis recently, even if he is coming to the back end of his career, and he does have the game that can give Florian Mayer fits.
Mayer does not have the big weapons off the ground that will bother Nalbandian, and will not get too many free points off a weak serve, and these are areas that the Argentine should be able to exploit.
Nalbandian has won the previous pair of meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2005, but I think he should be good enough to come through tomorrow.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez + 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)
SEASON TOTAL: + 82.02 Units
However, we come to one of the final Masters Events of the season and I didn't make any outright picks as both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic pulled out with fatigue and injury, and that obviously means Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are the short priced favourites to win the tournament.
4 of the top 10 are missing this week, while the dangerous Juan Martin Del Potro is not playing either, so the prices were significantly short on the top two players and I decided to give the outright market a miss.
I expect both Murray and Nadal to go close this week, if not win the tournament, but I will stick to the daily picks and hopefully keep the profit going upwards as the season draws to a close.
On to the Picks:
Feliciano Lopez + 3 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic has been in the better form of late after winning a tournament in Kuala Lumpur, but Feliciano Lopez has the game to give him plenty of fits as he can win plenty of free point off his booming serve if it is on its game.
Lopez is a former Semi Finalist in this tournament, and he holds a 4-1 head to head record against Tipsarevic so I think he can at least keep this match close, hopefully pushing it to 3 sets if he does lose.
Tipsarevic does have the potential of making the World Tour Finals if he absolutely aces the last few weeks of the season, but this looks like being a tough 1st Round encounter for him so I will take the games.
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Nalbandian has been playing some good tennis recently, even if he is coming to the back end of his career, and he does have the game that can give Florian Mayer fits.
Mayer does not have the big weapons off the ground that will bother Nalbandian, and will not get too many free points off a weak serve, and these are areas that the Argentine should be able to exploit.
Nalbandian has won the previous pair of meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2005, but I think he should be good enough to come through tomorrow.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez + 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)
SEASON TOTAL: + 82.02 Units
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