It wasn't that long ago that I said I have placed Ivan Ljubicic on my blacklist as he was playing terribly- it seems the big Croatian figures his best days are past him as he has decided to call it a day and will retire in a little over a months time.
Ljubicic was a decent player in his day, although I still don't understand why he didn't have a bigger impact at Wimbledon where his game should really have stood up. He reached the World Number 3 Ranking, but he never really had an amazing impact at Grand Slam level and that will go against him when he is remembered by the fans.
He reached one Semi Final at the French Open and one Quarter Final at the Australian Open, but I think I wouldn't be out of line in thinking that his game should have given him more opportunities at Grand Slam level.
He has made a bigger impact in his role on the Players Council at that is why he will always have the respect of his peers. The kind words offered for him by Roger Federer shows the kind of respect Ljubicic will command and I hope he is happy with whatever he decides to do in the future.
Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games v Olivier Rochus: Neither one of these players have been pulling up trees in 2012 nor have they had a sustained success at Indian Wells, but I am backing Andreas Seppi to continue his dominance of the head to head between himself and diminutive Olivier Rochus tonight.
Seppi has won the last 3 meetings between the players, all over the last couple of seasons, and that could provide the edge for the Italian to move through to the Second Round.
He is a tall man, but his serve is not the biggest, while his second serve would generally be considered a weakness. However, Rochus doesn't seem to possess the tools to take advantage of the second serve and that makes life easier for Seppi.
On the other hand, Rochus finds it hard to continuously hold on to serve as he doesn't have the power to win the cheap points and that means Seppi should be involved in a lot of them and create chances to break serve.
Seppi would have covered the spread on offer in the last two meetings between the players and I will back him to do so again today.
Alberta Brianti - 2.5 games v Silvia Soler-Espinosa: I am backing the veteran Italian to oust her younger opponent today who has been struggling for form in the early part of 2012.
Silvia Soler-Espinosa has won just 1 of her 7 matches played this season and most of her success over the last three seasons has come on the clay courts so this could be a tough day in the office for her.
However, I don't think it is wise to underestimate her too much considering she did reach the Third Round of the US Open last Summer so just may enjoy playing on the North American continent.
Alberta Brianti has opened her season with a few wins and I think she may have a higher level of confidence coming into this contest. She has never pulled up any trees on the hard courts, but she has played a lot of tennis on this surface and maintains a winning record in all events on the hard courts over the last five seasons.
The Italian has also won both previous meetings with Soler-Espinosa, although the last of those was over two years ago, but I think her hard court nous may just see her through in a game that could feature a huge number of breaks of serve.
MY PICKS: Andreas Seppi - 2.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alberta Brianti - 2.5 games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
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Tuesday, 21 February 2012
Tennis Picks February 21st
I decided to give Monday a day off after a disappointing week last week when I finished with a small deficit, plus I wasn't really that interested in the small number of matches on offering as the tournaments get underway across the globe.
As I had to last week, I may have to make some picks a bit later as the schedules for the tournaments in North and South America are released a little later and that means the layers will not get their markets up until later.
I will post a link to this thread on Twitter whenever new picks are made as I look for a positive start to the new week.
Ana Ivanovic - 4 games v Francesca Schiavone: I haven't backed Ana Ivanovic much at all since the end of 2008 as her career has really fallen off from the heights of winning the French Open that season and she has never really recovered from the pressure of becoming World Number 1.
However, this does present a good match up for her as she has the power to overcome Francesca Schiavone, especially at this stage of the Italian's career.
Schiavone has not had the best start to 2012, although I still think she will present a tough opponent on the slower clay courts later on in the season. Her 0-3 record against Ivanovic also works against her here and I just think the Serbian can win this one in straight sets, likely 6-4, 6-3 to move through to the Second Round.
Igor Andreev - 3.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: Last week I said I was much more impressed with the way Igor Andreev was going about his business considering the fall in his career over the last couple of seasons, and there were some clear signs that he could be making his way back up the Rankings sooner rather than later.
Andreev has already become accustomed to the conditions here, winning 3 Rounds to Qualify for the event, all wins coming in straight sets.
The Russian is 8-2 in his last 10 matches, all on clay courts, and he should be too strong for Blaz Kavcic who has been a First Round loser in 3 of the 4 tournaments he has competed in so far.
Kavcic was beaten by Jeremy Chardy last week in Sao Paulo- that loss came in straight sets and he has to be a little low in confidence at the moment.
Andreev beat him in straight sets a couple of seasons ago on the clay courts of Belgrade and I will look for him to do so again here.
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Potito Starace: Nicolas Almagro will play this match just a couple of days after winning the event in Sao Paulo and he should have plenty of confidence that he can extend his winning run against an opponent he has beaten 5 times in a row.
Starace is most comfortable on a clay court, but his last 3 defeats to Almagro have come on the surface and he has not made a great start to 2012. The Italian's serve can be a little inconsistent and he can also fall apart in matches when he feels it is getting away from him.
There is the concern that Almagro has never beaten Starace in straight sets, but he would still have covered this spread in 2 of their last 3 matches on a clay court and I will back him to do so again here.
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Go Soeda: Richard Gasquet should get plenty of support from the home crowd here in Marseille and I think he will continue to show the decent form he has been in the early part of the season.
Gasquet continues to show his class against some of the lesser opponents he faces, while not quite good enough when he gets up against some of the more consistent players on the Tour.
Go Soeda falls into the former and I think Gasquet should be good enough to win this one in straight sets.
Soeda generally plays on the Challenger circuit and Gasquet is going to be a huge step up for him, one I think will be a little too high for him to overcome. I feel Gasquet will likely get a couple of breaks in one set and that should be enough to cover the spread.
MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 4 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Igor Andreev - 3.5 games @ 1.85 188Bet (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
As I had to last week, I may have to make some picks a bit later as the schedules for the tournaments in North and South America are released a little later and that means the layers will not get their markets up until later.
I will post a link to this thread on Twitter whenever new picks are made as I look for a positive start to the new week.
Ana Ivanovic - 4 games v Francesca Schiavone: I haven't backed Ana Ivanovic much at all since the end of 2008 as her career has really fallen off from the heights of winning the French Open that season and she has never really recovered from the pressure of becoming World Number 1.
However, this does present a good match up for her as she has the power to overcome Francesca Schiavone, especially at this stage of the Italian's career.
Schiavone has not had the best start to 2012, although I still think she will present a tough opponent on the slower clay courts later on in the season. Her 0-3 record against Ivanovic also works against her here and I just think the Serbian can win this one in straight sets, likely 6-4, 6-3 to move through to the Second Round.
Igor Andreev - 3.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: Last week I said I was much more impressed with the way Igor Andreev was going about his business considering the fall in his career over the last couple of seasons, and there were some clear signs that he could be making his way back up the Rankings sooner rather than later.
Andreev has already become accustomed to the conditions here, winning 3 Rounds to Qualify for the event, all wins coming in straight sets.
The Russian is 8-2 in his last 10 matches, all on clay courts, and he should be too strong for Blaz Kavcic who has been a First Round loser in 3 of the 4 tournaments he has competed in so far.
Kavcic was beaten by Jeremy Chardy last week in Sao Paulo- that loss came in straight sets and he has to be a little low in confidence at the moment.
Andreev beat him in straight sets a couple of seasons ago on the clay courts of Belgrade and I will look for him to do so again here.
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games v Potito Starace: Nicolas Almagro will play this match just a couple of days after winning the event in Sao Paulo and he should have plenty of confidence that he can extend his winning run against an opponent he has beaten 5 times in a row.
Starace is most comfortable on a clay court, but his last 3 defeats to Almagro have come on the surface and he has not made a great start to 2012. The Italian's serve can be a little inconsistent and he can also fall apart in matches when he feels it is getting away from him.
There is the concern that Almagro has never beaten Starace in straight sets, but he would still have covered this spread in 2 of their last 3 matches on a clay court and I will back him to do so again here.
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games v Go Soeda: Richard Gasquet should get plenty of support from the home crowd here in Marseille and I think he will continue to show the decent form he has been in the early part of the season.
Gasquet continues to show his class against some of the lesser opponents he faces, while not quite good enough when he gets up against some of the more consistent players on the Tour.
Go Soeda falls into the former and I think Gasquet should be good enough to win this one in straight sets.
Soeda generally plays on the Challenger circuit and Gasquet is going to be a huge step up for him, one I think will be a little too high for him to overcome. I feel Gasquet will likely get a couple of breaks in one set and that should be enough to cover the spread.
MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 4 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Igor Andreev - 3.5 games @ 1.85 188Bet (2 Units)
Nicolas Almagro - 4.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 5.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tuesday, 14 February 2012
Tennis Picks February 14th
It was not a good opening day of the tournaments for my picks as I went a disappointing 1-3, although it could very easily have gone 3-1 with a little more luck.
Still, it is actually only my second losing day all season in the tennis so I can't really complain, but I am hoping this day brings a little more success.
The way the tournaments are spaced out means the layers do not offer their markets for the tournaments in Bogota, Sao Paulo and San Jose until the morning here in Britain, although they have got their act together with those at Rotterdam and Doha.
That means I will likely add a couple of picks in the morning before lunch time, hopefully before any of these picks start their matches (I don't chase, so I won't put up picks just because some earlier may not have been successful... To make sure I am not doing anything stupid sub-consciously, I like having all my picks ready before any of the earlier matches I pick have started).
I will update Twitter with a link to this thread in the morning with the other picks are ready to go.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games vs Marcel Granollers: I like Philipp Kohlschreiber's chances in this match as he was showing some decent form at the tournament in Montpellier recently on an indoor hard court, only losing in a close match to Tomas Berdych who went on to win the tournament.
Kohlschreiber missed the Davis Cup match with Argentina last week with a stomach bug, but he has had enough days to get over that and also did not need to change surface from the indoor hard court to the clay that Germany had picked in that tie.
The German is back in the top 32, but he could find himself moving up the rankings if he can maintain the consistency that has seen him start 2012 in decent nick.
Marcel Granollers is known for his clay court play, but did win a tournament at Valencia towards the back end of last season on an indoor hard court, although he had lost all 4 other matches he played on this surface outside of that one in Valencia.
The Spaniard played the fifth rubber in their Davis Cup win over Kazakhstan on Sunday, so he has not had much of a chance to get used to the change in surface and I think that will be the telling difference. I am surprised he didn't decide to play the South American clay court swing to be honest, and I think Kohlschreiber is going to be too strong for him.
I expect the German will come through in straight sets, likely 6-4, 6-3.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Igor Kunitsyn: I was extremely surprised that Russia decided to use Igor Kunitsyn instead of Mikhail Youzhny in their Davis Cup singles matches against Austria over the weekend and I think Youzhny will demonstrate why it was a mistake.
It left me scratching my head a little more when considering Youzhny is ranked over 30 places higher in the Rankings and had won the tournament in Zagreb on an indoor hard court just the week prior to the Davis Cup tie.
Kunitsyn has now lost 8 matches in a row stretching back to last season and I think his serve is one that Youzhny can take advantage of. As I said, Youzhny recently won a tournament on an indoor hard court and he obviously enjoys himself in Rotterdam having been a previous winner of the event here.
Add to that the fact he has reached the Quarter Final twice in the last 3 seasons and also reached a Final here in that time and you have to feel a little confident that he can beat his compatriot in straight sets and cover the spread on offer.
Youzhny was beating Kunitsyn 6-3, 6-1, 3-0 at Wimbledon in 2006 when the latter had to retire in their last match... I think it will be tighter than that, but I am looking for Youzhny to win 7-5, 6-4.
Daniela Hantuchova - 3.5 games v Simona Halep: Daniela Hantuchova is really enjoying an 'Indian Summer' in her career over the last 12 months, with some impressive performances. She comes into this event having won in Thailand last week and I think that is the reason we are seeing this small (famous last words?) spread on this game.
Hantuchova left Thailand on Sunday evening to come to Doha and could be suffering a little bit of jetlag having won that tournament. However, she faces Simona Halep, a player that has a decent game but one that has not pulled up any trees over the last 12 months on a hard court.
Halep has been beaten players that are not as good as Hantuchova, and the Slovakian is in good enough form for me to think she wins this in straight sets and covers the spread in a 6-3, 6-3 win.
Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo v Rui Machado: A slightly risky pick here, but I am going to back the veteran Spaniard to earn a win in the 1st Round here at the Brazil Open as I think he is in better form than Rui Machado.
Ramirez-Hidalgo is probably most famous for being the player who was in control of providing a shock win over Roger Federer at Monte Carlo, but then tried to pass the great man with a hotdog shot when it was easier to hit a normal shot... That woke Federer up who upped his game and managed to get through on a tie break in the final set.
He has qualified for this tournament, after doing the same in Chile last week, and has to be favoured here now he is more familiar with the court conditions.
Machado has done his best work on clay courts, but he has lost all 3 matches he has played in 2012 and this will be his first match on the red dirt. With Ramirez-Hidalgo having already won a couple of matches here to get to this phase, I think he will confirm the form between the two having won their only previous meeting on a clay court last season.
It might go the distance, but I do like the Spanish veteran to move forward.
Robby Ginepri v Xavier Malisse: These two are a couple of vets winding down their careers, but I think Ginepri is a little bit more match hardened in recent weeks, while Xavier Malisse has not played since retiring in the 1st Round at the Australian Open.
Ginepri can at least point to reaching a Final on the indoor hard courts in Hawaii in that time, although it was at the lower Challenger level, and he does spend almost all of his time in United States tournaments these days.
Malisse has lost all 3 matches he has played in 2012 and I don't know how much desire he has left, especially if he is taken into a battle.
The players haven't met since 2008, a match Ginepri won in 3 sets on the hard courts of Las Vegas, but I just think he may be worth chancing as the underdog considering the lack of tennis Malisse has played in recent weeks. That run to the Final in Honolulu a couple of weeks ago could stand Ginepri in good stead here.
MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniela Hantuchova - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Robby Ginepri @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)
Week Update: 1-3, - 4.4 Units (8 Units staked)
Still, it is actually only my second losing day all season in the tennis so I can't really complain, but I am hoping this day brings a little more success.
The way the tournaments are spaced out means the layers do not offer their markets for the tournaments in Bogota, Sao Paulo and San Jose until the morning here in Britain, although they have got their act together with those at Rotterdam and Doha.
That means I will likely add a couple of picks in the morning before lunch time, hopefully before any of these picks start their matches (I don't chase, so I won't put up picks just because some earlier may not have been successful... To make sure I am not doing anything stupid sub-consciously, I like having all my picks ready before any of the earlier matches I pick have started).
I will update Twitter with a link to this thread in the morning with the other picks are ready to go.
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games vs Marcel Granollers: I like Philipp Kohlschreiber's chances in this match as he was showing some decent form at the tournament in Montpellier recently on an indoor hard court, only losing in a close match to Tomas Berdych who went on to win the tournament.
Kohlschreiber missed the Davis Cup match with Argentina last week with a stomach bug, but he has had enough days to get over that and also did not need to change surface from the indoor hard court to the clay that Germany had picked in that tie.
The German is back in the top 32, but he could find himself moving up the rankings if he can maintain the consistency that has seen him start 2012 in decent nick.
Marcel Granollers is known for his clay court play, but did win a tournament at Valencia towards the back end of last season on an indoor hard court, although he had lost all 4 other matches he played on this surface outside of that one in Valencia.
The Spaniard played the fifth rubber in their Davis Cup win over Kazakhstan on Sunday, so he has not had much of a chance to get used to the change in surface and I think that will be the telling difference. I am surprised he didn't decide to play the South American clay court swing to be honest, and I think Kohlschreiber is going to be too strong for him.
I expect the German will come through in straight sets, likely 6-4, 6-3.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Igor Kunitsyn: I was extremely surprised that Russia decided to use Igor Kunitsyn instead of Mikhail Youzhny in their Davis Cup singles matches against Austria over the weekend and I think Youzhny will demonstrate why it was a mistake.
It left me scratching my head a little more when considering Youzhny is ranked over 30 places higher in the Rankings and had won the tournament in Zagreb on an indoor hard court just the week prior to the Davis Cup tie.
Kunitsyn has now lost 8 matches in a row stretching back to last season and I think his serve is one that Youzhny can take advantage of. As I said, Youzhny recently won a tournament on an indoor hard court and he obviously enjoys himself in Rotterdam having been a previous winner of the event here.
Add to that the fact he has reached the Quarter Final twice in the last 3 seasons and also reached a Final here in that time and you have to feel a little confident that he can beat his compatriot in straight sets and cover the spread on offer.
Youzhny was beating Kunitsyn 6-3, 6-1, 3-0 at Wimbledon in 2006 when the latter had to retire in their last match... I think it will be tighter than that, but I am looking for Youzhny to win 7-5, 6-4.
Daniela Hantuchova - 3.5 games v Simona Halep: Daniela Hantuchova is really enjoying an 'Indian Summer' in her career over the last 12 months, with some impressive performances. She comes into this event having won in Thailand last week and I think that is the reason we are seeing this small (famous last words?) spread on this game.
Hantuchova left Thailand on Sunday evening to come to Doha and could be suffering a little bit of jetlag having won that tournament. However, she faces Simona Halep, a player that has a decent game but one that has not pulled up any trees over the last 12 months on a hard court.
Halep has been beaten players that are not as good as Hantuchova, and the Slovakian is in good enough form for me to think she wins this in straight sets and covers the spread in a 6-3, 6-3 win.
Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo v Rui Machado: A slightly risky pick here, but I am going to back the veteran Spaniard to earn a win in the 1st Round here at the Brazil Open as I think he is in better form than Rui Machado.
Ramirez-Hidalgo is probably most famous for being the player who was in control of providing a shock win over Roger Federer at Monte Carlo, but then tried to pass the great man with a hotdog shot when it was easier to hit a normal shot... That woke Federer up who upped his game and managed to get through on a tie break in the final set.
He has qualified for this tournament, after doing the same in Chile last week, and has to be favoured here now he is more familiar with the court conditions.
Machado has done his best work on clay courts, but he has lost all 3 matches he has played in 2012 and this will be his first match on the red dirt. With Ramirez-Hidalgo having already won a couple of matches here to get to this phase, I think he will confirm the form between the two having won their only previous meeting on a clay court last season.
It might go the distance, but I do like the Spanish veteran to move forward.
Robby Ginepri v Xavier Malisse: These two are a couple of vets winding down their careers, but I think Ginepri is a little bit more match hardened in recent weeks, while Xavier Malisse has not played since retiring in the 1st Round at the Australian Open.
Ginepri can at least point to reaching a Final on the indoor hard courts in Hawaii in that time, although it was at the lower Challenger level, and he does spend almost all of his time in United States tournaments these days.
Malisse has lost all 3 matches he has played in 2012 and I don't know how much desire he has left, especially if he is taken into a battle.
The players haven't met since 2008, a match Ginepri won in 3 sets on the hard courts of Las Vegas, but I just think he may be worth chancing as the underdog considering the lack of tennis Malisse has played in recent weeks. That run to the Final in Honolulu a couple of weeks ago could stand Ginepri in good stead here.
MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Daniela Hantuchova - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ruben Ramirez-Hidalgo @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
Robby Ginepri @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)
Week Update: 1-3, - 4.4 Units (8 Units staked)
Monday, 13 February 2012
Tennis Picks February 13th
This is the first day of the new tournaments starting this week in Rotterdam, San Jose, Sao Paulo, Doha and Bogota as the ATP and WTA Tours both getting back to a normal schedule after a couple of stop-start weeks following the Australian Open.
There are a huge number of matches scheduled for tomorrow, in particular the WTA event in Doha which has a big field taking part, so I will post up any picks I make on this thread at least a couple of hours before the matches I pick will take place.
I will be updating my Twitter page during the course of the day when picks are made as the layers could be a little slower off the mark with the events taking place in the United States and Brazil, although I have noticed they are at least getting their act together when it comes to the event in Holland.
Keep an eye on this post and Twitter (@DavAulak) for the picks on this date.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 4.5 games vs Ksenia Pervak: I like the young Russian player in this match, despite her not playing since the Australian Open, as I still believe she is going to step up to the next level on the WTA Tour this season.
She does have a decent all round game, although her movement is still a little suspect.
However, she plays Ksenia Pervak, a player that has lost all 3 matches she has played in 2012, and one that has struggled to really compete with the better players on tour although she is still only 20 years old.
The fact that she is a left-hander could cause some early problems, but Pavluchenkova has beaten her comfortably before, and I think she will be too strong here in a 6-4, 6-2 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games vs Paul-Henri Mathieu: Now this could be seen as a little risky as Feliciano Lopez is one of the vulnerable seeds I spoke about in my outright preview, but I do think he will be a little too strong for the Frenchman coming back from an injury.
Mathieu did beat two seeded players in the Qualifying to get through to this match, so he has got a little bit of form about him, but he is still a little inconsistent in his play from what I saw of him in recent weeks and I think Lopez should be able to take care of him in straight sets that should allow him to cover this spread on offer.
It is a slightly risky pick as Lopez doesn't always give the impression of someone that is trying to win matches and can look a little lethargic, but he has shown enough this season to think he should win this match against a player that has lost to players a lot weaker than the Spaniard in his comeback bid.
Frederico Gil - 4 games vs Javier Marti: This looks like an interesting match at the Brazil Open today, but I am going to be backing the Portuguese player to come through as I think he is the better of the two on the clay courts at this stage of their careers.
Javier Marti is a young Spanish player, so it is a surprise to see him playing in indoor hard court events and hard court events early in 2012 rather than the clay courts. Last season Marti, who has just turned 20, finished 17-16 on the clay courts in the Challenger and qualifying circuit and he was beaten in the 1st Round of the two main tour events he entered.
While he probably favours clay courts, he is facing a player that who has shown he is very comfortable on the surface. Gil reached the Quarter Final at the Masters event in Monte Carlo last season on this surface, although he was only 8-9 in main tour events.
However, his Quarter Final run in Chile recently saw him dispose of Pablo Andujar, an adept clay court player, in straight sets for the loss of just 3 games and any replication of that form would see him come through this match fairly comfortably too.
I think his experience will prove telling for Marti, whose most recent tournament was in Russia on an indoor hard court, and I think Gil wins 6-4, 6-2.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 games vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: Kuznetosva is a hard player to get a feel for these days as she throws in a lot of poor performances, but then can look like a world-beater in other matches.
I think she will be too strong for Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez who is making her first appearance of 2012 after suffering a knee injury at the back end of last season. Sanchez is no fool on a tennis court, and her lefty serve can cause problems, but I think it is tough to return from a long lay off against someone of the calibre of Kuznetsova.
The Russian is also the stronger hard court player and it all seems to point to her winning this with a bit of room to spare. She performed very well on the hard courts of Dubai last season so can handle the conditions in the Middle East and I think she will have the opportunity to run away with the match after a tight first set.
I'll back her and look for her to come through 7-5, 6-2.
MY PICKS: Anastasia Pavyluchenkova - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Frederico Gil - 4 games @ 1.95 TitanBet (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 games @ 1.80 SkyBet (2 Units)
There are a huge number of matches scheduled for tomorrow, in particular the WTA event in Doha which has a big field taking part, so I will post up any picks I make on this thread at least a couple of hours before the matches I pick will take place.
I will be updating my Twitter page during the course of the day when picks are made as the layers could be a little slower off the mark with the events taking place in the United States and Brazil, although I have noticed they are at least getting their act together when it comes to the event in Holland.
Keep an eye on this post and Twitter (@DavAulak) for the picks on this date.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 4.5 games vs Ksenia Pervak: I like the young Russian player in this match, despite her not playing since the Australian Open, as I still believe she is going to step up to the next level on the WTA Tour this season.
She does have a decent all round game, although her movement is still a little suspect.
However, she plays Ksenia Pervak, a player that has lost all 3 matches she has played in 2012, and one that has struggled to really compete with the better players on tour although she is still only 20 years old.
The fact that she is a left-hander could cause some early problems, but Pavluchenkova has beaten her comfortably before, and I think she will be too strong here in a 6-4, 6-2 win.
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games vs Paul-Henri Mathieu: Now this could be seen as a little risky as Feliciano Lopez is one of the vulnerable seeds I spoke about in my outright preview, but I do think he will be a little too strong for the Frenchman coming back from an injury.
Mathieu did beat two seeded players in the Qualifying to get through to this match, so he has got a little bit of form about him, but he is still a little inconsistent in his play from what I saw of him in recent weeks and I think Lopez should be able to take care of him in straight sets that should allow him to cover this spread on offer.
It is a slightly risky pick as Lopez doesn't always give the impression of someone that is trying to win matches and can look a little lethargic, but he has shown enough this season to think he should win this match against a player that has lost to players a lot weaker than the Spaniard in his comeback bid.
Frederico Gil - 4 games vs Javier Marti: This looks like an interesting match at the Brazil Open today, but I am going to be backing the Portuguese player to come through as I think he is the better of the two on the clay courts at this stage of their careers.
Javier Marti is a young Spanish player, so it is a surprise to see him playing in indoor hard court events and hard court events early in 2012 rather than the clay courts. Last season Marti, who has just turned 20, finished 17-16 on the clay courts in the Challenger and qualifying circuit and he was beaten in the 1st Round of the two main tour events he entered.
While he probably favours clay courts, he is facing a player that who has shown he is very comfortable on the surface. Gil reached the Quarter Final at the Masters event in Monte Carlo last season on this surface, although he was only 8-9 in main tour events.
However, his Quarter Final run in Chile recently saw him dispose of Pablo Andujar, an adept clay court player, in straight sets for the loss of just 3 games and any replication of that form would see him come through this match fairly comfortably too.
I think his experience will prove telling for Marti, whose most recent tournament was in Russia on an indoor hard court, and I think Gil wins 6-4, 6-2.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 games vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: Kuznetosva is a hard player to get a feel for these days as she throws in a lot of poor performances, but then can look like a world-beater in other matches.
I think she will be too strong for Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez who is making her first appearance of 2012 after suffering a knee injury at the back end of last season. Sanchez is no fool on a tennis court, and her lefty serve can cause problems, but I think it is tough to return from a long lay off against someone of the calibre of Kuznetsova.
The Russian is also the stronger hard court player and it all seems to point to her winning this with a bit of room to spare. She performed very well on the hard courts of Dubai last season so can handle the conditions in the Middle East and I think she will have the opportunity to run away with the match after a tight first set.
I'll back her and look for her to come through 7-5, 6-2.
MY PICKS: Anastasia Pavyluchenkova - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Frederico Gil - 4 games @ 1.95 TitanBet (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 4.5 games @ 1.80 SkyBet (2 Units)
Monday, 16 January 2012
Australian Open Day 2 Picks
It was a decent start to the tournament on Day 1, but it could have been all the better if Ivan Ljubicic had not blown a 2 set lead when we needed him to go through with a 3 or 4 set win. What made that result more disappointing was the fact that Ljubicic had a break advantage in the 3rd set before essentially falling away.
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both enjoyed straight-forward wins in their 1st Round clashes. The Women's draw also saw the leading lights go forward into the next Round, although there were plenty of favourites who were beaten in their contests.
DAY 2 PICKS
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games vs Sorana Cirstea: I think Stosur will be too strong for a young opponent that has been beaten handily in the Grand Slam tournaments last year. Cirstea could potentially find this match a little overwhelming as the fans will be totally behind their home favourite and I feel Stosur is too effective for her.
Stosur has won 2 of their 3 meetings, although Cirstea won the last won in 2010. However, I think the World Number 5 will be too strong.
Jelena Dokic vs Anna Chakvetadze: I am surprised that Dokic is the underdog in this game, even though the Australian has not been in great form starting this season, and that is mainly down to the fact that Anna Chakvetadze has had injuries ruin her career in recent seasons.
Chakvetadze had not played since Wimbledon before having to retire in Hobart last week and I think Dokic could take advantage of the lack of fitness in this heat.
Dokic has also won their only previous meeting, at this tournament in 2009, and I think she is perhaps under-rated here.
MY PICKS: Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Jelena Dokic @ 2.38 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Daily Picks: 2-1, + 1.66 Units
Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both enjoyed straight-forward wins in their 1st Round clashes. The Women's draw also saw the leading lights go forward into the next Round, although there were plenty of favourites who were beaten in their contests.
DAY 2 PICKS
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games vs Sorana Cirstea: I think Stosur will be too strong for a young opponent that has been beaten handily in the Grand Slam tournaments last year. Cirstea could potentially find this match a little overwhelming as the fans will be totally behind their home favourite and I feel Stosur is too effective for her.
Stosur has won 2 of their 3 meetings, although Cirstea won the last won in 2010. However, I think the World Number 5 will be too strong.
Jelena Dokic vs Anna Chakvetadze: I am surprised that Dokic is the underdog in this game, even though the Australian has not been in great form starting this season, and that is mainly down to the fact that Anna Chakvetadze has had injuries ruin her career in recent seasons.
Chakvetadze had not played since Wimbledon before having to retire in Hobart last week and I think Dokic could take advantage of the lack of fitness in this heat.
Dokic has also won their only previous meeting, at this tournament in 2009, and I think she is perhaps under-rated here.
MY PICKS: Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Jelena Dokic @ 2.38 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Daily Picks: 2-1, + 1.66 Units
Sunday, 15 January 2012
Australian Open Day 1 Picks
The tournament starts in a few hours and I have been studying the matches all day, although a lot of the markets have not been available for us until a little later.
The first day of the Grand Slams is not usually my favourite time to make too many plays as the layers have had enough time to destroy any value that was in the market- that usually changes as games come quick and fast once a tournament gets underway.
DAY 1 PICKS
Sergey Stakhovsky - 4.5 games vs Iliya Marchenko: Now I know Stakhovsky had a let down of a season last year, but I think he is being under-rated against a player that he has dealt with in all 3 meetings previously.
Stakhovsky has won the last 5 sets when they have met and has enough consistency in his play to disrupt Marchenko, a player always liable to throwing in a cheap service game in a set.
Stakhovsky has lost both his opening games this season, but he will have the mentality that this is a winnable contest and he had not been in great form when reaching the 3rd Round here last year.
The biggest thing that concerns me is that he has won all of the previous meetings on an indoor hard court, but I still think Stakhovsky should be too good and could still cover even if he drops a set.
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 Sets vs Lukas Lacko: As I said in my outright preview, Ivan Ljubicic is coming towards the end of his career, but I still see this as a contest he can win with a little bit of room to spare.
This will be the big Croatian's first appearance of the new season, and he does face someone who has come through the 3 Qualifying Rounds, but I still think Ljubicic is ahead of the curve that Lukas Lacko finds himself on.
Lacko has to overcome the fact that he was beaten in the 1st Round in 3 of the 4 Grand Slams last season, failing to even Qualify for the French Open, and I think the experience will be the key to Ljubicic moving forwards, although he may drop a set in the process.
Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Alexander Kudryavtsev: I think Federer may make a big statement to open up his Australian Open campaign as he wants to put aside fears about his back, plus he has to be mad after hearing comments attributed to Rafael Nadal about only caring for himself.
The former World Number 1 could not really ask for a better 1st Round clash against a player that has 12 matches on the main tour in the last 4 seasons.
I will be honest that I don't know an awful lot about Kudryatsev, but he is surely going to be a little overawed at playing one of the best players of all time. Federer crushed Lukas Lacko in this Round last year and I have a feeling he may hand out another lesson to have people talking about his tennis again.
MY PICKS: Sergiy Stakhovsky - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets @ 2.38 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
The first day of the Grand Slams is not usually my favourite time to make too many plays as the layers have had enough time to destroy any value that was in the market- that usually changes as games come quick and fast once a tournament gets underway.
DAY 1 PICKS
Sergey Stakhovsky - 4.5 games vs Iliya Marchenko: Now I know Stakhovsky had a let down of a season last year, but I think he is being under-rated against a player that he has dealt with in all 3 meetings previously.
Stakhovsky has won the last 5 sets when they have met and has enough consistency in his play to disrupt Marchenko, a player always liable to throwing in a cheap service game in a set.
Stakhovsky has lost both his opening games this season, but he will have the mentality that this is a winnable contest and he had not been in great form when reaching the 3rd Round here last year.
The biggest thing that concerns me is that he has won all of the previous meetings on an indoor hard court, but I still think Stakhovsky should be too good and could still cover even if he drops a set.
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 Sets vs Lukas Lacko: As I said in my outright preview, Ivan Ljubicic is coming towards the end of his career, but I still see this as a contest he can win with a little bit of room to spare.
This will be the big Croatian's first appearance of the new season, and he does face someone who has come through the 3 Qualifying Rounds, but I still think Ljubicic is ahead of the curve that Lukas Lacko finds himself on.
Lacko has to overcome the fact that he was beaten in the 1st Round in 3 of the 4 Grand Slams last season, failing to even Qualify for the French Open, and I think the experience will be the key to Ljubicic moving forwards, although he may drop a set in the process.
Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Alexander Kudryavtsev: I think Federer may make a big statement to open up his Australian Open campaign as he wants to put aside fears about his back, plus he has to be mad after hearing comments attributed to Rafael Nadal about only caring for himself.
The former World Number 1 could not really ask for a better 1st Round clash against a player that has 12 matches on the main tour in the last 4 seasons.
I will be honest that I don't know an awful lot about Kudryatsev, but he is surely going to be a little overawed at playing one of the best players of all time. Federer crushed Lukas Lacko in this Round last year and I have a feeling he may hand out another lesson to have people talking about his tennis again.
MY PICKS: Sergiy Stakhovsky - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic - 1.5 sets @ 2.38 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (2 Units)
Monday, 10 October 2011
Tennis Picks Tuesday 11 October (Shanghai Masters)
It has been a while since I last played any tennis matches as we have had the break from the US Open while the tournaments being played have not really appealed to me too much.
However, we come to one of the final Masters Events of the season and I didn't make any outright picks as both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic pulled out with fatigue and injury, and that obviously means Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are the short priced favourites to win the tournament.
4 of the top 10 are missing this week, while the dangerous Juan Martin Del Potro is not playing either, so the prices were significantly short on the top two players and I decided to give the outright market a miss.
I expect both Murray and Nadal to go close this week, if not win the tournament, but I will stick to the daily picks and hopefully keep the profit going upwards as the season draws to a close.
On to the Picks:
Feliciano Lopez + 3 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic has been in the better form of late after winning a tournament in Kuala Lumpur, but Feliciano Lopez has the game to give him plenty of fits as he can win plenty of free point off his booming serve if it is on its game.
Lopez is a former Semi Finalist in this tournament, and he holds a 4-1 head to head record against Tipsarevic so I think he can at least keep this match close, hopefully pushing it to 3 sets if he does lose.
Tipsarevic does have the potential of making the World Tour Finals if he absolutely aces the last few weeks of the season, but this looks like being a tough 1st Round encounter for him so I will take the games.
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Nalbandian has been playing some good tennis recently, even if he is coming to the back end of his career, and he does have the game that can give Florian Mayer fits.
Mayer does not have the big weapons off the ground that will bother Nalbandian, and will not get too many free points off a weak serve, and these are areas that the Argentine should be able to exploit.
Nalbandian has won the previous pair of meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2005, but I think he should be good enough to come through tomorrow.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez + 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)
SEASON TOTAL: + 82.02 Units
However, we come to one of the final Masters Events of the season and I didn't make any outright picks as both Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic pulled out with fatigue and injury, and that obviously means Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal are the short priced favourites to win the tournament.
4 of the top 10 are missing this week, while the dangerous Juan Martin Del Potro is not playing either, so the prices were significantly short on the top two players and I decided to give the outright market a miss.
I expect both Murray and Nadal to go close this week, if not win the tournament, but I will stick to the daily picks and hopefully keep the profit going upwards as the season draws to a close.
On to the Picks:
Feliciano Lopez + 3 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: Tipsarevic has been in the better form of late after winning a tournament in Kuala Lumpur, but Feliciano Lopez has the game to give him plenty of fits as he can win plenty of free point off his booming serve if it is on its game.
Lopez is a former Semi Finalist in this tournament, and he holds a 4-1 head to head record against Tipsarevic so I think he can at least keep this match close, hopefully pushing it to 3 sets if he does lose.
Tipsarevic does have the potential of making the World Tour Finals if he absolutely aces the last few weeks of the season, but this looks like being a tough 1st Round encounter for him so I will take the games.
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games vs Florian Mayer: David Nalbandian has been playing some good tennis recently, even if he is coming to the back end of his career, and he does have the game that can give Florian Mayer fits.
Mayer does not have the big weapons off the ground that will bother Nalbandian, and will not get too many free points off a weak serve, and these are areas that the Argentine should be able to exploit.
Nalbandian has won the previous pair of meetings between the players, although the last was back in 2005, but I think he should be good enough to come through tomorrow.
MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez + 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Nalbandian - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Bodog (2 Units)
SEASON TOTAL: + 82.02 Units
Tuesday, 9 August 2011
Carling Cup Picks August 9th
Only got 1 double tonight from the coupon in a notoriously difficult competition to pick, one which is considered a pain in the backside for many managers:
http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-11288-Leeds-United-v-Bradford.htm
http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-11289-Nottingham-Forest-v-Notts-County.htm
MY PICKS: Double; Leeds United and Nottingham Forest @ 2.36 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
AUGUST UPDATE: 3-3, - 1.1 Units
http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-11288-Leeds-United-v-Bradford.htm
http://www.goonersguide.com/football-pick-11289-Nottingham-Forest-v-Notts-County.htm
MY PICKS: Double; Leeds United and Nottingham Forest @ 2.36 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
AUGUST UPDATE: 3-3, - 1.1 Units
Monday, 20 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 1 Picks
The third Grand Slam of the year is upon us and it is one of my favourite tournaments, especially being so close to the event.
The weather forecast for the first week is disappointing to say the least, and it will be the first year when the roof on Centre Court will be used heavily in my opinion. Tomorrow we are to expect consistent rain for much of the day and I have a feeling that a lot of matches will have to be postponed for Tuesday.
Worryingly for the organisers, Tuesday seems to be the only day where rain is not forecasted and we may just see play on the middle Sunday, a day usually reserved for rest.
It also looks like a tough opening day to make picks, with plenty of very short prices around while the handicaps are set almost perfectly to leave me doubtful of the outcome. However, I will play a couple of picks from today.
Now on to the picks from Day 1:
Fernando Verdasco - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: Fernando Verdasco does not have the best pedigree on the grass courts, but he has had plenty of practice this season as he gets ready for Wimbledon. A win over David Nalbandian at Queens shows he does have the capabilities to produce good results on the surface.
Radek Stepanek has had a decent couple of weeks on the grass courts, but he is not at the same level as a couple of years ago. He may well cause problems for a little while, but the strength of Verdasco's shots are sure to give him the edge.
The head to head is 3-2 in favour of Stepanek, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 meetings. Verdasco has won the last 5 sets played against Stepanek for the loss of just 8 games.
Stepanek did beat Verdasco in 5 sets here in 2006, but I think the players have moved in separate directions since then, and I do think the Spaniard will move forward.
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez vs Michael Berrer, Richard Gasquet vs Santiago Giraldo, Ekaterina Makarova vs Christine McHale and Jelena Jankovic vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: I hate putting more than a treble in for tennis picks but I feel all 4 players have a good chance of progressing here.
Feliciano Lopez has performed well at Wimbledon in the past and I think he will be too strong in a tight match with Michael Berrer.
Richard Gasquet has not played competitive tennis since the French Open, but should have too much nous for his Colombian opponent.
Ekaterina Makarova has shown some real good grass court pedigree this year following on from a win at Eastbourne last year.
Jelena Jankovic is the most worrying pick against an opponent that has a winning record head to head against her. Jankovic has also not played since the French Open so may take a little time getting used to the grass. However, she has played well on the surface in previous years and I fancy her to get the job done in 2 tight sets.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Ekaterina Makarova and Jelena Jankovic to win @ 2.41 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
The weather forecast for the first week is disappointing to say the least, and it will be the first year when the roof on Centre Court will be used heavily in my opinion. Tomorrow we are to expect consistent rain for much of the day and I have a feeling that a lot of matches will have to be postponed for Tuesday.
Worryingly for the organisers, Tuesday seems to be the only day where rain is not forecasted and we may just see play on the middle Sunday, a day usually reserved for rest.
It also looks like a tough opening day to make picks, with plenty of very short prices around while the handicaps are set almost perfectly to leave me doubtful of the outcome. However, I will play a couple of picks from today.
Now on to the picks from Day 1:
Fernando Verdasco - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: Fernando Verdasco does not have the best pedigree on the grass courts, but he has had plenty of practice this season as he gets ready for Wimbledon. A win over David Nalbandian at Queens shows he does have the capabilities to produce good results on the surface.
Radek Stepanek has had a decent couple of weeks on the grass courts, but he is not at the same level as a couple of years ago. He may well cause problems for a little while, but the strength of Verdasco's shots are sure to give him the edge.
The head to head is 3-2 in favour of Stepanek, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 meetings. Verdasco has won the last 5 sets played against Stepanek for the loss of just 8 games.
Stepanek did beat Verdasco in 5 sets here in 2006, but I think the players have moved in separate directions since then, and I do think the Spaniard will move forward.
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez vs Michael Berrer, Richard Gasquet vs Santiago Giraldo, Ekaterina Makarova vs Christine McHale and Jelena Jankovic vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: I hate putting more than a treble in for tennis picks but I feel all 4 players have a good chance of progressing here.
Feliciano Lopez has performed well at Wimbledon in the past and I think he will be too strong in a tight match with Michael Berrer.
Richard Gasquet has not played competitive tennis since the French Open, but should have too much nous for his Colombian opponent.
Ekaterina Makarova has shown some real good grass court pedigree this year following on from a win at Eastbourne last year.
Jelena Jankovic is the most worrying pick against an opponent that has a winning record head to head against her. Jankovic has also not played since the French Open so may take a little time getting used to the grass. However, she has played well on the surface in previous years and I fancy her to get the job done in 2 tight sets.
MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Ekaterina Makarova and Jelena Jankovic to win @ 2.41 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Saturday, 16 April 2011
NBA Play Offs- 1st Round Predictions
Finally the 82 games in the regular season are finished and the Play Offs are here. There are a number of intriguing series in the 1st Round, while many will also be salivating at the prospect of some very interesting Semi Finals and Finals over the next 2 months.
Who will win? I don't really know at the moment, there are many teams with real potential. A dark horse could be the young and very talented Oklahoma City Thunder, but they must first negotiate a tough 1st Round series with the flying Denver Nuggets.
The LA Lakers and Boston Celtics cannot be ruled out even though they limped into the Play Offs, while both Number 1 seeds in Chicago and San Antonio should be live players.
And then there is the Miami Heat...
But first, all teams have to negotiate their way through to the latter stages and that means it is time for 1st Round Predictions!
Eastern Conference 1st Round Predictions
Chicago Bulls (1) v Indiana Pacers (8): This should be a clear cut series for the Chicago Bulls if they can hold their nerves together and play up to the expectations the fans now have on the team. The likes of Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah should be too strong for Indiana, the only team with a losing record in the Play Offs.
The Pacers may be able to get a split in the 2 games played on their home court, but the Bulls should come through in 4 or 5 games.
Miami Heat (2) v Philadelphia 76ers (7): The Miami Heat have negotiated the regular season with one goal in mind and that was to be getting ready to really play some ball in the Play Offs. They have won all 3 games against the 76ers in the regular season, but 2 of those game during Phili's tough start to the season.
The 76ers will need Lou Williams back in the rotation sooner rather than later to help them out, but eventually Miami's class will tell and the Heat will get warmed up with a series win in 5 games.
Boston Celtics (3) v New York Knicks (6): Boston's end to the season made their decision to trade away Kendrick Perkins look even more surprising and could cost them the chance to reach the Finals for the 2nd year in succession. However, while many are tipping this as the surprise of the 1st Round, I think the Celtics still have a little too much know-all for the new look Knicks.
The acquisition of Carmelo Anthony makes the Knicks an attractive team to watch, and he and Amare Stoudemire can take games away from teams, but Defense wins Championships and that is an area that will let them down. I can see the Knicks pushing Boston to 6 games before bowing out.
Orlando Magic (4) v Atlanta Hawks (5): The Atlanta Hawks beat the Magic 3-1 in the regular season, but must still have a few nightmares of their 4-0 Semi Final loss last season to these same opponents.
Atlanta have really been struggling down the stretch and there are plenty of accusations of players quitting in games. Orlando themselves have been a Jekyll and Hyde team since blowing up their roster and bringing in the likes of Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas and it is hard to take them completely seriously when the latter gets as many minutes as he does.
This is the hardest series to call in the East in my opinion, and I have a sneaky feeling the Hawks may take this in 7 games.
Western Conference 1st Round Predictions
San Antonio Spurs (1) v Memphis Grizzlies (8): The West is loaded with a string of strong series, but this could be the one that has most people shocked. San Antonio only just fell short of the best record in the NBA, but people are beginning to worry that they are showing their age as key players like Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili all struggled with injuries down the stretch.
Add to that the fact that they play a young, fast, athletic team like the Grizzlies and the potential for a 1st Round shock is definitely in play.
Memphis were so confident of this match up that they deliberately tanked games down the stretch to ensure they play the Spurs... That confidence may just see them push San Antonio all the way here to 7 games.
LA Lakers (2) v New Orleans Hornets (7): The LA Lakers went on a 17-1 run after the All Star break which had people effectively crowning them as the Western Champions- however, they have not been so dominating to close the season and now the doubters are out in force again.
The Lakers should be happy to face the New Orleans Hornets, arguably the weakest team in the Western Conference Play Offs. LA won the season series 4-0 and the Hornets are missing David West... Lakers take this in 4 games.
Dallas Mavericks (3) v Portland Trail Blazers (6): Another team that is happy with their match up is the Portland Trail Blazers who play a Dallas team that they beat in their regular season series. With the Rose Garden being a really tough arena to visit, Portland definitely will feel they have the beating of a Dallas team that finished a little up and down in the regular season.
The Mavericks have lost in this Round in 3 of the last 4 Play Off appearances they have had, and their deep squad could be well matched by Portland's.
Much like the San Antonio series, this one may just be decided in 7 games... This time the underdog Portland team comes up trumps, winning in Dallas to secure the series.
Oklahoma City Thunder (4) v Denver Nuggets (5): As you may know, I am pretty high on the Thunder and really believe they can go deep if they handle the pressure of being the favourites in a series rather than the loveable underdogs. The trade for Kendrick Perkins looks an inspired decision and makes Oklahoma City a tough series for any team in the West.
Denver are another who made a big decision by trading away Carmelo Anthony and they too have fired since then as they have a number of high quality players, even if none of them are quite up to the Superstar label just yet. The Nuggets have the third winningest record since the trade deadline, but notably they have lost 2 times to Oklahoma City in that time.
The Thunder are likely to have one too many questions for Denver here and will come through in 6 games.
The next couple of weeks will show us how the 1st Round pans out and I will be back for an update in to my Semi Final feels.
Remember to check out http://www.goonersguide.com/ where I will be putting up my NBA picks for individual games throughout the Play Offs. I have over 11 Units of profit from the last 2 months of the regular season and hope to build that up further before a potential lockout season next year.
Who will win? I don't really know at the moment, there are many teams with real potential. A dark horse could be the young and very talented Oklahoma City Thunder, but they must first negotiate a tough 1st Round series with the flying Denver Nuggets.
The LA Lakers and Boston Celtics cannot be ruled out even though they limped into the Play Offs, while both Number 1 seeds in Chicago and San Antonio should be live players.
And then there is the Miami Heat...
But first, all teams have to negotiate their way through to the latter stages and that means it is time for 1st Round Predictions!
Eastern Conference 1st Round Predictions
Chicago Bulls (1) v Indiana Pacers (8): This should be a clear cut series for the Chicago Bulls if they can hold their nerves together and play up to the expectations the fans now have on the team. The likes of Derrick Rose, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah should be too strong for Indiana, the only team with a losing record in the Play Offs.
The Pacers may be able to get a split in the 2 games played on their home court, but the Bulls should come through in 4 or 5 games.
Miami Heat (2) v Philadelphia 76ers (7): The Miami Heat have negotiated the regular season with one goal in mind and that was to be getting ready to really play some ball in the Play Offs. They have won all 3 games against the 76ers in the regular season, but 2 of those game during Phili's tough start to the season.
The 76ers will need Lou Williams back in the rotation sooner rather than later to help them out, but eventually Miami's class will tell and the Heat will get warmed up with a series win in 5 games.
Boston Celtics (3) v New York Knicks (6): Boston's end to the season made their decision to trade away Kendrick Perkins look even more surprising and could cost them the chance to reach the Finals for the 2nd year in succession. However, while many are tipping this as the surprise of the 1st Round, I think the Celtics still have a little too much know-all for the new look Knicks.
The acquisition of Carmelo Anthony makes the Knicks an attractive team to watch, and he and Amare Stoudemire can take games away from teams, but Defense wins Championships and that is an area that will let them down. I can see the Knicks pushing Boston to 6 games before bowing out.
Orlando Magic (4) v Atlanta Hawks (5): The Atlanta Hawks beat the Magic 3-1 in the regular season, but must still have a few nightmares of their 4-0 Semi Final loss last season to these same opponents.
Atlanta have really been struggling down the stretch and there are plenty of accusations of players quitting in games. Orlando themselves have been a Jekyll and Hyde team since blowing up their roster and bringing in the likes of Jason Richardson and Gilbert Arenas and it is hard to take them completely seriously when the latter gets as many minutes as he does.
This is the hardest series to call in the East in my opinion, and I have a sneaky feeling the Hawks may take this in 7 games.
Western Conference 1st Round Predictions
San Antonio Spurs (1) v Memphis Grizzlies (8): The West is loaded with a string of strong series, but this could be the one that has most people shocked. San Antonio only just fell short of the best record in the NBA, but people are beginning to worry that they are showing their age as key players like Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili all struggled with injuries down the stretch.
Add to that the fact that they play a young, fast, athletic team like the Grizzlies and the potential for a 1st Round shock is definitely in play.
Memphis were so confident of this match up that they deliberately tanked games down the stretch to ensure they play the Spurs... That confidence may just see them push San Antonio all the way here to 7 games.
LA Lakers (2) v New Orleans Hornets (7): The LA Lakers went on a 17-1 run after the All Star break which had people effectively crowning them as the Western Champions- however, they have not been so dominating to close the season and now the doubters are out in force again.
The Lakers should be happy to face the New Orleans Hornets, arguably the weakest team in the Western Conference Play Offs. LA won the season series 4-0 and the Hornets are missing David West... Lakers take this in 4 games.
Dallas Mavericks (3) v Portland Trail Blazers (6): Another team that is happy with their match up is the Portland Trail Blazers who play a Dallas team that they beat in their regular season series. With the Rose Garden being a really tough arena to visit, Portland definitely will feel they have the beating of a Dallas team that finished a little up and down in the regular season.
The Mavericks have lost in this Round in 3 of the last 4 Play Off appearances they have had, and their deep squad could be well matched by Portland's.
Much like the San Antonio series, this one may just be decided in 7 games... This time the underdog Portland team comes up trumps, winning in Dallas to secure the series.
Oklahoma City Thunder (4) v Denver Nuggets (5): As you may know, I am pretty high on the Thunder and really believe they can go deep if they handle the pressure of being the favourites in a series rather than the loveable underdogs. The trade for Kendrick Perkins looks an inspired decision and makes Oklahoma City a tough series for any team in the West.
Denver are another who made a big decision by trading away Carmelo Anthony and they too have fired since then as they have a number of high quality players, even if none of them are quite up to the Superstar label just yet. The Nuggets have the third winningest record since the trade deadline, but notably they have lost 2 times to Oklahoma City in that time.
The Thunder are likely to have one too many questions for Denver here and will come through in 6 games.
The next couple of weeks will show us how the 1st Round pans out and I will be back for an update in to my Semi Final feels.
Remember to check out http://www.goonersguide.com/ where I will be putting up my NBA picks for individual games throughout the Play Offs. I have over 11 Units of profit from the last 2 months of the regular season and hope to build that up further before a potential lockout season next year.
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