Tennis Picks August 17th Cincinnati

It was a mixed bag yesterday in terms of the picks, and it leaves us with a slight deficit as we reach Day 3 of the tournament.

Only one of the big 4 has been in action so far, and that was Roger Federer with his impressive win over Juan Martin Del Potro last night.

The former World Number 1 has opened up his section with that win and has shortened considerably in the outright market. Federer was impressive behind serve, one of the elements that let him down against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga last week, and it was clear he enjoys the conditions at this venue.

Today we will see the rest of the top 4 players in action in what looks like another busy day of tennis action:

Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs David Nalbandian: I am going to back the British Number 1 to make a much better start to the week than he did in Montreal and come through with a bit to spare.

Murray will be able to get a much better feel for this match than he did against Kevin Anderson as he won't be getting big bombs served at him and will be involved in many more rallies.

David Nalbandian is not the force of old and looked bad in losses against Stanislas Wawrinka and James Blake over the last couple of weeks. He has won a match here already this week, but I think he will give Murray too many chances and lose 6-3, 6-4.

Some may prefer backing Murray with a - 4 game headstart, but I think the price on - 4.5 games is tempting enough to give it a shot.


Feliciano Lopez - 2 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Barring a bad first service game, Feliciano Lopez showed how effective his serve can be on this surface when beating Juan Carlos Ferrero in 3 sets in the last Round.

He faces a difficult opponent in Kohlschreiber that can be erratic- one match he will look like a top 20 player, in others you struggle to see how he got into the top 100.

Lopez has a 3-0 head to head record against the German and I have a feeling we may see a flat performance from Kohlschreiber following his 3 set win over Andy Roddick in the last Round.


Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games vs Andrey Golubev: Radek Stepanek has shown he is clearly still in decent form, beating John Isner in the last Round and recently winning a hard court event in Washington.

He faces Andrey Golubev who stopped a 15 match losing run on the main tour in the last Round when beating Stanislas Wawrinka. I think Golubev took advantage of the Swiss mans exertions from Montreal and he will not get that luxury against Stepanek who is adept at playing on hard courts and has the variation and character to both frustrate and anger opponents.

Stepanek has a 3-1 head to head record over Golubev and his wins have been relatively straight forward. I think we may see a 6-4, 6-4 win for him tonight.


Gilles Simon - 2.5 games vs Janko Tipsarevic: I am backing Gilles Simon to win this match as he faces an opponent that looked a little fatigued in his win in the 1st Round following a run to the Semi Finals in Montreal last week.

We have seen in the past those players that do well in Canada and then falter in Cincinnati and I think Tipsarevic may be ripe for the taking here.

Simon has the winning mentality recently, albeit in a clay court event, and has beaten Tipsarevic in their 2 career meetings.


Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games vs Maria Kirilenko: Francesca Schiavone is one of the toughest competitors on the WTA Tour and I feel her ability to chase down a lot of balls (excuse me?!!) gives her the edge to break down the Kirilenko game.

That seems to stand up to the 4-1 head to head record Schiavone holds over Kirilenko and the fact that Kirilenko has had a slight injury in recent weeks will not aid her cause.

Schiavone has won their last 2 meetings without dropping a set, including in Kirilenko's home country, and I think she will prove too strong again.


Serena Williams - 2.5 games vs Sam Stosur: The odds here are clearly much lower because Serena Williams was showing signs of fatigue following her recent successes when beating Lucie Hradecka in the last Round.

However, the best Women's player in the World said in her press conference that she had arrived in Cincinnati the night before and she expects to play better today.

Stosur is another who played a lot of tennis in reaching the Final in Toronto last week but she was easily beaten on that occasion following a tight first set. The Australian has also been suffering with a slight wrist problem, especially when hitting her backhand strokes, and I think Williams will confirm her superiority over her today.


Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games vs Jie Zheng: I am going to back the former World Number 1, Jelena Jankovic, to come through this test against a player that has fallen from her best level that took her to a Wimbledon Semi Final in 2009.

Jie Zheng has won 3 Rounds here already so she is in form and she did push Serena Williams to 3 sets last week, but Jelena Jankovic has an impressive 4-1 head to head record against her opponent and she has won the last 3 meetings without dropping a set.

Jankovic has not had a good time on the hard courts this Summer so far, but she does adapt well to the faster surfaces and I expect her to come through tonight.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2 games @ 1.95 Bodog (2 Units)
Radek Stepanek - 3.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 2.5 games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 2.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Serena Williams - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 0.48 Units

Wimbledon Day 1 Picks

The third Grand Slam of the year is upon us and it is one of my favourite tournaments, especially being so close to the event.

The weather forecast for the first week is disappointing to say the least, and it will be the first year when the roof on Centre Court will be used heavily in my opinion. Tomorrow we are to expect consistent rain for much of the day and I have a feeling that a lot of matches will have to be postponed for Tuesday.

Worryingly for the organisers, Tuesday seems to be the only day where rain is not forecasted and we may just see play on the middle Sunday, a day usually reserved for rest.

It also looks like a tough opening day to make picks, with plenty of very short prices around while the handicaps are set almost perfectly to leave me doubtful of the outcome. However, I will play a couple of picks from today.

Now on to the picks from Day 1:


Fernando Verdasco - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: Fernando Verdasco does not have the best pedigree on the grass courts, but he has had plenty of practice this season as he gets ready for Wimbledon. A win over David Nalbandian at Queens shows he does have the capabilities to produce good results on the surface.

Radek Stepanek has had a decent couple of weeks on the grass courts, but he is not at the same level as a couple of years ago. He may well cause problems for a little while, but the strength of Verdasco's shots are sure to give him the edge.

The head to head is 3-2 in favour of Stepanek, but it is Verdasco who has won the last 2 meetings. Verdasco has won the last 5 sets played against Stepanek for the loss of just 8 games.

Stepanek did beat Verdasco in 5 sets here in 2006, but I think the players have moved in separate directions since then, and I do think the Spaniard will move forward.


Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez vs Michael Berrer, Richard Gasquet vs Santiago Giraldo, Ekaterina Makarova vs Christine McHale and Jelena Jankovic vs Maria-Jose Martinez Sanchez: I hate putting more than a treble in for tennis picks but I feel all 4 players have a good chance of progressing here.

Feliciano Lopez has performed well at Wimbledon in the past and I think he will be too strong in a tight match with Michael Berrer.

Richard Gasquet has not played competitive tennis since the French Open, but should have too much nous for his Colombian opponent.

Ekaterina Makarova has shown some real good grass court pedigree this year following on from a win at Eastbourne last year.

Jelena Jankovic is the most worrying pick against an opponent that has a winning record head to head against her. Jankovic has also not played since the French Open so may take a little time getting used to the grass. However, she has played well on the surface in previous years and I fancy her to get the job done in 2 tight sets.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 3 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Four Fold: Feliciano Lopez, Richard Gasquet, Ekaterina Makarova and Jelena Jankovic to win @ 2.41 Pinnacle (1 Unit)