The ATP World Tour Finals has reach the Final match of the week and the 2016 season aside from the Davis Cup Final which is played next week.
It isn't just the Final that is being played on Sunday but the winner of the Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray match will also end the year as World Number 1 so there is plenty on the line that can also be a momentum builder for the start of the 2017 season.
The off-season is not that long in tennis when you think the first tournaments of the 2017 season are scheduled for just seven weeks time from Monday. We are a little over two months away from the first Grand Slam of the 2017 season which is absolutely crazy to think about, but there are still a few big matches left in 2016.
Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Andy Murray: The ATP World Tour Finals comes to an end on Sunday and it is the Final that most would have wanted. The top two players in the World Rankings go up against one another with the trophy and the World Number 1 Ranking on the line.
Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray have won all four matches played so far this week, but I think it is hard to ignore the amount of tennis that Murray has had to play compared with Djokovic. The long winning run does mean Murray is going to believe he can dig deep enough to come through in the Final, but he has twice had to go over three hours to win his matches and yesterday's Semi Final victory over Milos Raonic came close to four hours on court.
Compare that with Djokovic who lost just two games on his way to crushing Kei Nishikori and the former World Number 1 has to be a lot fresher. I do think Djokovic has not been at his very best this week, but his level could be good enough if Murray is fatiguing and I think the Serb has to feel he can outlast Murray much like he has throughout his career.
Matches between Djokovic and Murray have been competitive, but tiredness didn't help Murray when beaten in four sets by Djokovic in their last meeting at the French Open. I can see the first set being very competitive, but Murray will find it tough to continue finding the strength to win the long rallies these two tend to play against one another. At that point I think Djokovic will take control of the match and come through with a 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-7, + 0.18 Units (28 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Andy Murray. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Andy Murray. Show all posts
Sunday, 20 November 2016
Saturday, 9 July 2016
Wimbledon Tennis Day 14 Picks 2016- Mens Final (July 10th)
Wimbledon Mens Final 2016- Milos Raonic vs Andy Murray
The two favourites to reach the Wimbledon Mens Final were Roger Federer and Andy Murray when the Semi Finals were played on Friday, but Milos Raonic crashed the party to become the youngest Grand Slam Finalist from the mens side of the draw since 2012.
Milos Raonic served very big and looked strong at times, but his win over Roger Federer will be seen as one that the seven time former Champion will regret. There is no doubting that Federer was the superior player through the first four sets, but he somehow blew the fourth set when serving at 40-0 to take that set into a tie-breaker and it was clear that Federer felt that was the match turning moment.
It certainly felt like that as Federer had not faced a break point since the fourth game of the first set and he had created nine break points of his own, albeit only taking the one. Some perhaps felt Federer was saying goodbye to Centre Court for the last time, but his interview after the match suggests this was a tournament in which he has already surpassed expectations.
I just hope Federer hasn't hurt himself with a bad fall in the fifth set and he can get back to full health for the rest of the season. We are not expecting to see Federer back in action until the Canadian Masters later this month and he is looking to represent Switzerland at the Olympic Games, and I just hope there is no negative news out of the fall after earlier having a bit of work done on the knee.
For Milos Raonic it was a big victory, but I am not ready to believe the Canadian is going to be amongst the leading contenders to win Grand Slams in the coming few years just yet. There has been an improvement in his game, but Federer let him off the hook in this Semi Final and I still think his limited return game isn't good enough against the very best players on the Tour on a consistent basis. Even if Raonic was to win on Sunday, I would expect him to be over-rated in coming matches rather than someone who is ready to step up alongside the elite players on the Tour.
In that Final he meets Andy Murray for a repeat of the Queens Final from a few weeks ago. Murray was very strong in his win over Tomas Berdych and he has to know he won't have a better chance of adding to his Grand Slam trophy collection. That can produce nerves, but the good news for Murray is that he has won the title at Wimbledon before while his opponent won't have the vast Grand Slam Final experience that the likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic could fall back upon against Murray.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Milos Raonic: Anyone who watched the Queens Final will remember Milos Raonic was a set and a break up against Andy Murray before the latter turned things around. That might give Raonic plenty of belief that he can get the better of Murray on this surface, but I am not so convinced especially if Murray can begin to get a read on where the serve is going as he has in their recent matches.
They also played a memorable five set Semi Final at the Australian Open which Raonic was leading 2-1 before falling away, but there has been a common trend in their recent matches. It was Raonic who had won three of their first five matches, but Murray has won five in a row since the last of those losses in March 2014.
The trend I am talking about isn't the run of losses, but the fact that Murray has found a way to get better results behind his serve in each of those until the Queens Final. In November 2014 Raonic won 33% of points on the Murray serve, but has then won 28%, 25%, 23% and then 26% in the Queens Final.
Murray is one of the players on the ATP Tour that can get plenty of balls back in play even against the biggest servers, and limiting what Raonic is able to do against his own serve should open the door for him in this Final. You have to think Murray will take a little speed off the first serve to make sure he gets plenty of those in play and he will believe he is the better player when the rallies move past four shots, even in the return games.
Pressure can do a funny thing as Murray will have plenty of expectations on his shoulders going into his first Slam Final as the favourite. However I think the way he played in the Semi Final suggests he is comfortable with his position and Murray will believe he will be able to diffuse the Raonic serve. I also don't think Murray will miss the opportunities that Federer created in his Semi Final defeat to Raonic and I believe Murray has the variation and the smarts to force Raonic into making awkward volleys throughout this contest.
I simply don't buy that Raonic can win a Slam with his limited return game and he was barely involved in Federer's service games until the final game of the fourth set and the fifth set. Murray has kept Raonic at arm's length on his service games in recent matches against Raonic and I think he will be too strong for him on the day, forcing a few breaks of serve to make sure he can cover this number.
I am expecting Murray to come through in three or four sets and I will back him to cover this number of games on his way to a second Wimbledon title.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Sunday, 19 June 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (June 19th)
This has been a terrible week for the tennis picks, but I have to question whether I've had much luck when clear opportunities are missed by the players I have backed.
Roger Federer might been beaten in his Semi Final with Alexander Zverev, but he had break points in the first and third game of the final set and taking one of those might have changed the entire finish of the match.
Even more frustrating was Coco Vandeweghe getting into a 62, 21 position with the break and later missing a 62, 33, 15-40 position to really take the match by the scruff of the neck.
Frustrating times to say the least.
Andy Murray - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: There has never been a five time winner of the event held at Queens club in West London, but Andy Murray is on the brink of making history. He is once again in the Final of an event he has used to prepare for Wimbledon since turning professional and Andy Murray is the favourite to beat Milos Raonic who is playing in his first Final here.
On the face of things you would think Raonic would be perfectly suited to grass and he is a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist. However the reality has been a player that has struggled for consistency on the grass and bringing in John McEnroe to his team should have its benefits going forward.
The Canadian has a huge serve which can make him very difficult to play against on a surface like grass, but he isn't always at his best trying to follow that up. Now he will also be facing a player that is an exceptional returner of serve and who will make Raonic earn some of the games that he would usually come through with a number of unreturned serves or producing aces.
It can build pressure and frustrate Raonic and I think Murray will be too good in this one as he beats the Canadian for a fifth time in a row.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer might been beaten in his Semi Final with Alexander Zverev, but he had break points in the first and third game of the final set and taking one of those might have changed the entire finish of the match.
Even more frustrating was Coco Vandeweghe getting into a 62, 21 position with the break and later missing a 62, 33, 15-40 position to really take the match by the scruff of the neck.
Frustrating times to say the least.
Andy Murray - 2.5 games v Milos Raonic: There has never been a five time winner of the event held at Queens club in West London, but Andy Murray is on the brink of making history. He is once again in the Final of an event he has used to prepare for Wimbledon since turning professional and Andy Murray is the favourite to beat Milos Raonic who is playing in his first Final here.
On the face of things you would think Raonic would be perfectly suited to grass and he is a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist. However the reality has been a player that has struggled for consistency on the grass and bringing in John McEnroe to his team should have its benefits going forward.
The Canadian has a huge serve which can make him very difficult to play against on a surface like grass, but he isn't always at his best trying to follow that up. Now he will also be facing a player that is an exceptional returner of serve and who will make Raonic earn some of the games that he would usually come through with a number of unreturned serves or producing aces.
It can build pressure and frustrate Raonic and I think Murray will be too good in this one as he beats the Canadian for a fifth time in a row.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Saturday, 4 June 2016
French Open Tennis Day 15 Picks 2016- Men's Final (June 5th)
It was a fantastic day for Garbine Muguruza and all of the people who have backed her in her career as she won the French Open with a comprehensive win over Serena Williams. There was no doubting that Muguruza was the better player on the day, although Serena produced her best tennis since earlier in the tournament after struggling in her last couple of matches.
Whether that was down to the rumoured injury or whether Serena Williams was just a little out of form might only be evident when we see how she is going into Wimbledon which begins at the end of the month.
For Muguruza the sky has to be the limit as she put together her game impressively after a tougher than expected First Round match. She is moving into the World Number 2 spot in the Rankings and Muguruza will have good memories of Wimbledon where she reached the Final in 2015 so another big Grand Slam run could be in her immediate future.
The long term suggests she could become the face of the WTA Tour when the likes of Serena Williams move on, but the big question has to be how Muguruza will handle the new pressures of being a Grand Slam Champion. It has affected Angelique Kerber from her win earlier in the season at the Australian Open but the lack of real time between the French Open and Wimbledon might actually play to her favour.
Now we are left with just one more match at the French Open as Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray get set to contest another Grand Slam Final. It means they will complete the set of playing Finals against one another at every Grand Slam event which is some achievement and I don't think too many would be ruling out seeing these two players compete for the Wimbledon title in around six weeks time either.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: This is the Final that most would have been expecting when the draw was made two weeks ago, although Andy Murray had to dig deep to come through the first two Rounds where he was a set away from being defeated twice. For Novak Djokovic it has been a much more serene progress through the draw with the only dropped set coming in ridiculous conditions against Roberto Bautista Agut.
This has long been a dream of Novak Djokovic's to win the French Open and he has just fallen short the last couple of years. It does mean he will likely feel some pressure in this match, more than he would normally when playing in Slam Finals at the other three events, and that is what Andy Murray has to try and take advantage of.
For Murray, merely becoming a player capable of winning titles on clay would have been a big achievement for him, but you can't ignore nerves that will come when playing in Slam Finals. He might have beaten a tired Djokovic in Rome last month, but Murray has to try and ignore the fact he has lost four in a row against the World Number 1 at Grand Slam level since beating him at Wimbledon.
Two of those Slam defeats have come in Finals including at the Australian Open earlier this season and I think the slightly warmer conditions we are seeing in Paris will play into the World Number 1's hands. That isn't to say we won't see the grinding rallies that both Djokovic and Murray have produced in the past against one another, but that won't bother Djokovic who continues to believe he has more in reserve than Murray when it comes down to the critical moments.
Last year it looked like Djokovic was going to come through Murray in the French Open Semi Final easily enough, but the third and fourth sets were won by the latter and he will look at those for confidence. The win in Rome had an asterisk next to it, but it again should boost the confidence of Murray as he bids to win the third of the four Grand Slams.
I just think this is Novak Djokovic's time to add the one trophy he wants most.
He comes in pretty fresh having dropped one set all tournament and his record in big matches against Andy Murray can't be ignored. As much as Murray has improved as a clay court player, Novak Djokovic is the Number 1 player on this surface and should have won this tournament last year.
Djokovic came in off back to back emotional wins over Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray before falling to a free-hitting Stan Wawrinka, but he should be much more level headed from an emotional standpoint this time. He knows he can beat Murray in these big matches and has the fitness to wear down his opponent and I can see that being the case here.
This is going to be the tenth Grand Slam meeting between Murray and Djokovic and the World Number 1 leads those 7-2. In all of those seven wins, Djokovic has covered this number of games as he wears Murray down in the later stages of their matches and I think we will see something similar here.
I will also have an interest in backing 'Over 38.5 Games' in this one.
The straight sets win Djokovic had over Murray at the Australian Open this year is a rare situation for when these players meet one another. Only three of their nine Grand Slam matches have ended in straight sets and all the ones that have gone beyond that point have surpassed this total.
With the way both are playing this week, I would be surprised if either player wins this one in straight sets and they do tend to play these really tight, competitive sets that get close to or into tie-breakers. Therefore backing the over total games looks another decent call from this Final.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic-Andy Murray Over 38.5 Total Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
French Open Update: 28-30, - 8.16 Units (115 Units Staked, - 7.10% Yield)
Whether that was down to the rumoured injury or whether Serena Williams was just a little out of form might only be evident when we see how she is going into Wimbledon which begins at the end of the month.
For Muguruza the sky has to be the limit as she put together her game impressively after a tougher than expected First Round match. She is moving into the World Number 2 spot in the Rankings and Muguruza will have good memories of Wimbledon where she reached the Final in 2015 so another big Grand Slam run could be in her immediate future.
The long term suggests she could become the face of the WTA Tour when the likes of Serena Williams move on, but the big question has to be how Muguruza will handle the new pressures of being a Grand Slam Champion. It has affected Angelique Kerber from her win earlier in the season at the Australian Open but the lack of real time between the French Open and Wimbledon might actually play to her favour.
Now we are left with just one more match at the French Open as Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray get set to contest another Grand Slam Final. It means they will complete the set of playing Finals against one another at every Grand Slam event which is some achievement and I don't think too many would be ruling out seeing these two players compete for the Wimbledon title in around six weeks time either.
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Andy Murray: This is the Final that most would have been expecting when the draw was made two weeks ago, although Andy Murray had to dig deep to come through the first two Rounds where he was a set away from being defeated twice. For Novak Djokovic it has been a much more serene progress through the draw with the only dropped set coming in ridiculous conditions against Roberto Bautista Agut.
This has long been a dream of Novak Djokovic's to win the French Open and he has just fallen short the last couple of years. It does mean he will likely feel some pressure in this match, more than he would normally when playing in Slam Finals at the other three events, and that is what Andy Murray has to try and take advantage of.
For Murray, merely becoming a player capable of winning titles on clay would have been a big achievement for him, but you can't ignore nerves that will come when playing in Slam Finals. He might have beaten a tired Djokovic in Rome last month, but Murray has to try and ignore the fact he has lost four in a row against the World Number 1 at Grand Slam level since beating him at Wimbledon.
Two of those Slam defeats have come in Finals including at the Australian Open earlier this season and I think the slightly warmer conditions we are seeing in Paris will play into the World Number 1's hands. That isn't to say we won't see the grinding rallies that both Djokovic and Murray have produced in the past against one another, but that won't bother Djokovic who continues to believe he has more in reserve than Murray when it comes down to the critical moments.
Last year it looked like Djokovic was going to come through Murray in the French Open Semi Final easily enough, but the third and fourth sets were won by the latter and he will look at those for confidence. The win in Rome had an asterisk next to it, but it again should boost the confidence of Murray as he bids to win the third of the four Grand Slams.
I just think this is Novak Djokovic's time to add the one trophy he wants most.
He comes in pretty fresh having dropped one set all tournament and his record in big matches against Andy Murray can't be ignored. As much as Murray has improved as a clay court player, Novak Djokovic is the Number 1 player on this surface and should have won this tournament last year.
Djokovic came in off back to back emotional wins over Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray before falling to a free-hitting Stan Wawrinka, but he should be much more level headed from an emotional standpoint this time. He knows he can beat Murray in these big matches and has the fitness to wear down his opponent and I can see that being the case here.
This is going to be the tenth Grand Slam meeting between Murray and Djokovic and the World Number 1 leads those 7-2. In all of those seven wins, Djokovic has covered this number of games as he wears Murray down in the later stages of their matches and I think we will see something similar here.
I will also have an interest in backing 'Over 38.5 Games' in this one.
The straight sets win Djokovic had over Murray at the Australian Open this year is a rare situation for when these players meet one another. Only three of their nine Grand Slam matches have ended in straight sets and all the ones that have gone beyond that point have surpassed this total.
With the way both are playing this week, I would be surprised if either player wins this one in straight sets and they do tend to play these really tight, competitive sets that get close to or into tie-breakers. Therefore backing the over total games looks another decent call from this Final.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic-Andy Murray Over 38.5 Total Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
French Open Update: 28-30, - 8.16 Units (115 Units Staked, - 7.10% Yield)
Saturday, 30 January 2016
Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Picks- Men's Final (January 31st)
If the first Singles Final of the 2016 Tennis Grand Slam season is setting the standards that we can expect all season, then we are going to have a really enjoyable time watching the sport this season.
Both Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber played their part in a drama filled match and it was the latter who surprised most observers by beating the World Number 1 over three sets. Kerber deserved her win and her place as the World Number 2 as she finally won the big one.
I will admit that I thought she might have missed her window to win a Grand Slam, but it goes to show what hard work will reward you with and Kerber is a deserved winner. Backing up this start to the season is going to be a huge task for the first German Grand Slam winner this century, while Serena Williams has to pick herself up from a second consecutive Slam disappointment.
History is going to begin to weigh on her shoulders, but there was enough form shown by Serena Williams over the last two weeks to think she goes into every tournament she enters as a big favourite. It would be nice for Serena to win one of these matches that goes into a third set on the big stage just to reignite any confidence that might have been lost, but I think the American can have a very big 2016 season and get past Steffi Graf's 22 Grand Slam titles.
Whenever the World Number 1 and World Number 2 meet in a Grand Slam Final, most would be expecting a competitive affair. However, Novak Djokovic's comprehensive hammering of Roger Federer over four sets on Thursday night had made him a strong favourite to beat Andy Murray who played his Semi Final a day later and was forced to dig deep in a five set win over Milos Raonic.
The layers might not be expecting the most entertaining Australian Open Final, but I do think they could be surprised in this one.
Novak Djokovic- Andy Murray over 36.5 total games: The layers have looked at the way the second Semi Final went down for Andy Murray as he was dragged into a long five setter while Novak Djokovic was resting at home after a relatively straight-forward Semi Final win the night before.
There is no doubting that Novak Djokovic believes he is the fittest player on the Tour and he has regularly made not to mention that he always feels he can out-last Andy Murray if it comes down to their physical fitness. Having an extra day of recovery no doubt gives Novak Djokovic an edge in this one especially as the World Number 1 would have been a strong favourite even if he had played the Friday Semi Final.
Djokovic has looked very strong in his last two matches since being given a scare by Gilles Simon and I can't see him losing this Final now. He has beaten Murray in ten of their last eleven matches since the Wimbledon Final of 2013 and his run of victories include winning all three matches they have played at Grand Slams since that defeat.
One of those matches was last year in the Final at the Australian Open as Novak Djokovic wore down Murray after splitting the first two sets. He dropped just three games in the final two sets after being forced into two tie-breakers and it is a feature of their previous matches that there are tight moments when Murray is able to have success before Novak Djokovic eventually takes control.
I do think Andy Murray needs a fast start to get the adrenaline pumping and to ignore the tiredness he may be feeling after the match with Milos Raonic. Eventually you have to think that will help wear down Murray as Djokovic uses his physical advantages to take control of the match but I wouldn't be surprised if the World Number 2 can take a set in this one.
Djokovic has only beaten Murray in straight sets once before so there is a reasonable thought to backing the Serb to win this one in four sets. Murray isn't as aggressive as Federer and he can sometimes make enough balls to force Djokovic into a few mistakes and it is only after a couple of hours when Djokovic's superior movement and ability to get around the court begins to take control in previous matches.
I know Djokovic has beaten Murray quite easily in two matches at the back end of last season and the latter is in a tough position having played the second Semi Final and being kept out on the court for a long time. However, I am seeing that five of the last six Grand Slam matches between these players have gone at least four sets and surpassed this number of games and I do think Murray can match up well with Djokovic for a certain amount of time before perhaps falling slightly below that level and falling away.
I really see a situation where they will play two competitive sets that will perhaps be split one each before Djokovic begins to take control and move away from Murray. It is hard to imagine Murray allowing himself to crumble as badly as he did last season when bagelled in the fourth set, but that shouldn't matter in getting over this number of total games.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic-Andy Murray Over 36.5 Total Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 30-47, - 34.10 Units (148 Units Staked, - 23.04% Yield)
Both Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber played their part in a drama filled match and it was the latter who surprised most observers by beating the World Number 1 over three sets. Kerber deserved her win and her place as the World Number 2 as she finally won the big one.
I will admit that I thought she might have missed her window to win a Grand Slam, but it goes to show what hard work will reward you with and Kerber is a deserved winner. Backing up this start to the season is going to be a huge task for the first German Grand Slam winner this century, while Serena Williams has to pick herself up from a second consecutive Slam disappointment.
History is going to begin to weigh on her shoulders, but there was enough form shown by Serena Williams over the last two weeks to think she goes into every tournament she enters as a big favourite. It would be nice for Serena to win one of these matches that goes into a third set on the big stage just to reignite any confidence that might have been lost, but I think the American can have a very big 2016 season and get past Steffi Graf's 22 Grand Slam titles.
Whenever the World Number 1 and World Number 2 meet in a Grand Slam Final, most would be expecting a competitive affair. However, Novak Djokovic's comprehensive hammering of Roger Federer over four sets on Thursday night had made him a strong favourite to beat Andy Murray who played his Semi Final a day later and was forced to dig deep in a five set win over Milos Raonic.
The layers might not be expecting the most entertaining Australian Open Final, but I do think they could be surprised in this one.
Novak Djokovic- Andy Murray over 36.5 total games: The layers have looked at the way the second Semi Final went down for Andy Murray as he was dragged into a long five setter while Novak Djokovic was resting at home after a relatively straight-forward Semi Final win the night before.
There is no doubting that Novak Djokovic believes he is the fittest player on the Tour and he has regularly made not to mention that he always feels he can out-last Andy Murray if it comes down to their physical fitness. Having an extra day of recovery no doubt gives Novak Djokovic an edge in this one especially as the World Number 1 would have been a strong favourite even if he had played the Friday Semi Final.
Djokovic has looked very strong in his last two matches since being given a scare by Gilles Simon and I can't see him losing this Final now. He has beaten Murray in ten of their last eleven matches since the Wimbledon Final of 2013 and his run of victories include winning all three matches they have played at Grand Slams since that defeat.
One of those matches was last year in the Final at the Australian Open as Novak Djokovic wore down Murray after splitting the first two sets. He dropped just three games in the final two sets after being forced into two tie-breakers and it is a feature of their previous matches that there are tight moments when Murray is able to have success before Novak Djokovic eventually takes control.
I do think Andy Murray needs a fast start to get the adrenaline pumping and to ignore the tiredness he may be feeling after the match with Milos Raonic. Eventually you have to think that will help wear down Murray as Djokovic uses his physical advantages to take control of the match but I wouldn't be surprised if the World Number 2 can take a set in this one.
Djokovic has only beaten Murray in straight sets once before so there is a reasonable thought to backing the Serb to win this one in four sets. Murray isn't as aggressive as Federer and he can sometimes make enough balls to force Djokovic into a few mistakes and it is only after a couple of hours when Djokovic's superior movement and ability to get around the court begins to take control in previous matches.
I know Djokovic has beaten Murray quite easily in two matches at the back end of last season and the latter is in a tough position having played the second Semi Final and being kept out on the court for a long time. However, I am seeing that five of the last six Grand Slam matches between these players have gone at least four sets and surpassed this number of games and I do think Murray can match up well with Djokovic for a certain amount of time before perhaps falling slightly below that level and falling away.
I really see a situation where they will play two competitive sets that will perhaps be split one each before Djokovic begins to take control and move away from Murray. It is hard to imagine Murray allowing himself to crumble as badly as he did last season when bagelled in the fourth set, but that shouldn't matter in getting over this number of total games.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic-Andy Murray Over 36.5 Total Games @ 1.73 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 30-47, - 34.10 Units (148 Units Staked, - 23.04% Yield)
Saturday, 6 July 2013
Wimbledon Day 13 Picks 2013- Men's Final (July 7th)
After a couple of weeks full of surprises and some fabulous tennis, no more so than the Semi Final between Novak Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro, this is the Men's Final that everyone would have wanted to see.
Britain's Andy Murray will get his second crack at winning the Wimbledon title that has eluded British Men for over 75 years, but he faces the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic in what looks a cracking match.
Unlike the Woman's Final, both of these players are very secure in their game and are used to playing the biggest matches so it would be more than a surprise if the match is decided because one of them are too nervous to perform as Sabine Lisicki was.
These two players will know each other very well as they have played one another since they were kids and have already had 18 professional matches against one another. Surprisingly, as the top two players in the World Rankings, these two players have only met once this season when Novak Djokovic beat Andy Murray in four sets at the Australian Open.
Andy Murray will have his supporters as he has won two tournaments in a row on the grass going back to last year and will know more about the pressure having played in a Wimbledon Final last year and also having won his first Grand Slam title at the US Open last September, beating this same opponent in five sets.
However, I was adamant that Murray received the benefit of playing his Semi Final first at Flushing Meadows, which has proven to be a difference maker in the Final there over the last few years. Novak Djokovic is 3-0 in Grand Slam matches against Murray outside of that Final at the US Open, although all of those matches have been played at the Australian Open.
I know Murray beat Djokovic at the Olympic Games in a best of three match on the grass courts last summer, but like a lot of their matches, it was much closer than the straight sets victory for Murray would indicate.
At the start of the tournament, I picked Novak Djokovic to win this tournament and I won't change my mind now. He has looked like a man that has wanted to right what he felt was the wrong of failing to win the French Open and I just have a little more faith in his game at the crunch times compared with Andy Murray's. The second serve is the key shot for both of these players and I expect Djokovic to secure more points on his own than Murray will when it comes to his second serve and that could prove to be the difference on the day.
Both players will have their time dominating the match and the mental fatigue could be a factor as the hours tick on, but I like Djokovic on that level too so will stick with my pre-tournament pick in this one.
The match should be closely contested, but the first pick I will make from this one is Novak Djokovic to win 3-1 in sets. I can see the first two sets being really close and split between the players, but Djokovic has shown the ability to move away from Murray in big matches and that could be the case again.
The last four matches between these players has seen both men win at least one set and I would be surprised if either is to win this one in straight sets. I just have a little more belief in the mental ability of Djokovic to overcome the moments of crisis and come through in four sets.
I also think it could be worth backing Andy Murray over 2.5 double faults- while Murray has got a very high percentage of first serves in during his last two matches, he might be forced to go for a bit more against one of the best returners of all time in the Men's game. There is little doubt that Murray's second serve is one of the weakest shots in his game and if he is forced to push on those, which could happen if Djokovic starts getting a read on that ball, then there is every chance Murray would hand over a few cheap points.
Murray has had 13 double faults in the last four matches against Djokovic and we have seen him drop sets twice in his last two matches with a double fault against far less effective returners than the World Number 1 and the pressure that he can apply.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 4.33 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
Andy Murray Over 2.5 Double Faults @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 22-15, + 16.02 Units (70 Units Staked, + 22.89% Yield)
Britain's Andy Murray will get his second crack at winning the Wimbledon title that has eluded British Men for over 75 years, but he faces the World Number 1 Novak Djokovic in what looks a cracking match.
Unlike the Woman's Final, both of these players are very secure in their game and are used to playing the biggest matches so it would be more than a surprise if the match is decided because one of them are too nervous to perform as Sabine Lisicki was.
These two players will know each other very well as they have played one another since they were kids and have already had 18 professional matches against one another. Surprisingly, as the top two players in the World Rankings, these two players have only met once this season when Novak Djokovic beat Andy Murray in four sets at the Australian Open.
Andy Murray will have his supporters as he has won two tournaments in a row on the grass going back to last year and will know more about the pressure having played in a Wimbledon Final last year and also having won his first Grand Slam title at the US Open last September, beating this same opponent in five sets.
However, I was adamant that Murray received the benefit of playing his Semi Final first at Flushing Meadows, which has proven to be a difference maker in the Final there over the last few years. Novak Djokovic is 3-0 in Grand Slam matches against Murray outside of that Final at the US Open, although all of those matches have been played at the Australian Open.
I know Murray beat Djokovic at the Olympic Games in a best of three match on the grass courts last summer, but like a lot of their matches, it was much closer than the straight sets victory for Murray would indicate.
At the start of the tournament, I picked Novak Djokovic to win this tournament and I won't change my mind now. He has looked like a man that has wanted to right what he felt was the wrong of failing to win the French Open and I just have a little more faith in his game at the crunch times compared with Andy Murray's. The second serve is the key shot for both of these players and I expect Djokovic to secure more points on his own than Murray will when it comes to his second serve and that could prove to be the difference on the day.
Both players will have their time dominating the match and the mental fatigue could be a factor as the hours tick on, but I like Djokovic on that level too so will stick with my pre-tournament pick in this one.
The match should be closely contested, but the first pick I will make from this one is Novak Djokovic to win 3-1 in sets. I can see the first two sets being really close and split between the players, but Djokovic has shown the ability to move away from Murray in big matches and that could be the case again.
The last four matches between these players has seen both men win at least one set and I would be surprised if either is to win this one in straight sets. I just have a little more belief in the mental ability of Djokovic to overcome the moments of crisis and come through in four sets.
I also think it could be worth backing Andy Murray over 2.5 double faults- while Murray has got a very high percentage of first serves in during his last two matches, he might be forced to go for a bit more against one of the best returners of all time in the Men's game. There is little doubt that Murray's second serve is one of the weakest shots in his game and if he is forced to push on those, which could happen if Djokovic starts getting a read on that ball, then there is every chance Murray would hand over a few cheap points.
Murray has had 13 double faults in the last four matches against Djokovic and we have seen him drop sets twice in his last two matches with a double fault against far less effective returners than the World Number 1 and the pressure that he can apply.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 4.33 Bet 365 (1 Unit)
Andy Murray Over 2.5 Double Faults @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 22-15, + 16.02 Units (70 Units Staked, + 22.89% Yield)
Sunday, 3 February 2013
Australian Open 2013 Recap
The first Grand Slam of the season finished less than a week ago and it has already given us a taste of what is to come as far as I am concerned. Some things haven't changed in the last twelve months with both the defending Champions retaining their titles, but there were some breakthrough performances and it does whet the appetite for the coming season.
In terms of the tournament from the picks point of view, it was the worst Grand Slam performance since this blog has been started and am hoping that isn't the start of things to come. It could have been a lot worse if it hadn't been for the final few days of the tournament with winning picks from both the Women's and Men's Finals.
Andy Murray is the second best player in the World, but winning another Grand Slam won't come easy to him: I said at the US Open that I wouldn't have expected Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic if he had played the second Semi Final as the scheduling at that Grand Slam for the Men's tournament have always put the winner of the second Semi Final in a tough spot.
Before I go on, I don't want anyone thinking I don't like Andy Murray... In fact, I am a big fan of the Scot.
But I do think there is something still not quite right with his performances to add another Grand Slam to his name, especially not with the upcoming return of Rafael Nadal.
The problem I have with Murray is that out of the top four players, he is the one that seems to have a really 'low' period in the big matches, a period when he seems to fall away. While Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer are a lot more consistent with their level, Murray does seem to lapse and this why some of his Grand Slam defeats haven't been the heartbreaking losses that the likes of Federer have suffered, but more a fall away.
I know some will blame his body breaking down at a critical moment, but I am not buying that, nor am I buying the fact that he had to play the second Semi Final as there is still a day rest and he had been in a 'short' five-setter.
As I say, Murray is still the second best player in the World in my opinion, and his lapses won't affect him in the majority of tournaments he plays, but winning a Grand Slam with that still happening is unlikely to happen twice, barring real scheduling help.
New breed of players on the WTA Tour: The Woman's game has evolved in recent years into bringing a lot of power onto the Tour and that has meant that players are making their big breakthrough as they get older and the teenage sensations are likely a thing of the past.
However, the performances of Heather Watson, Laura Robson and Sloane Stephens has shown that there are some very good players coming up as the Woman's game is being replenished. The veterans like Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams remain at the top of the game, while Na Li had another sensational tournament, but the youngsters are starting to make inroads.
The big question is which of the trio I mentioned is going to win a Grand Slam tournament? I think Stephens and Robson will find a way to win one of the Majors, but I am not sure Heather Watson will be able to avoid playing someone that will eventually be strong enough and consistent enough to knock her over before she completes a Major win.
If I was going to compare the players with some of the top ones in the World, I would say Stephens is a little like Victoria Azarenka (I don't mean she will definitely reach that level, but her game is similar), Robson reminds me of Petra Kvitova and Watson could perhaps have a career like Caroline Wozniacki.
However, these players are young and development is still the key for them.
Serena Williams is still the best female player on Tour, but can be vulnerable in Grand Slam tournaments: Over the last 14 months, Serena Williams has been pretty much the favourite for every Grand Slam tournament she has played and rightly so.
However, the Australian Open proved yet again that Serena plays one poor match a tournament and thus is likely going to be too short for the majority of occasions when she is priced at less than 2.20 to win a tournament.
Over the last 5 Grand Slams, Ekaterina Makarova, Virginie Razzano and now Sloane Stephens have been able to do enough to knock out Serena, while Jie Zheng pushed her all the way at Wimbledon last year.
That should be a bit of caution for those that like the American in the outright markets going forward, particularly at her worst Major which is the French Open.
Australian Open Final: 18-26, - 8.59 Units (87 Units Staked, - 9.87% Yield)
Season 2013: - 2.62 Units (133 Units Staked, - 1.97% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
In terms of the tournament from the picks point of view, it was the worst Grand Slam performance since this blog has been started and am hoping that isn't the start of things to come. It could have been a lot worse if it hadn't been for the final few days of the tournament with winning picks from both the Women's and Men's Finals.
Andy Murray is the second best player in the World, but winning another Grand Slam won't come easy to him: I said at the US Open that I wouldn't have expected Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic if he had played the second Semi Final as the scheduling at that Grand Slam for the Men's tournament have always put the winner of the second Semi Final in a tough spot.
Before I go on, I don't want anyone thinking I don't like Andy Murray... In fact, I am a big fan of the Scot.
But I do think there is something still not quite right with his performances to add another Grand Slam to his name, especially not with the upcoming return of Rafael Nadal.
The problem I have with Murray is that out of the top four players, he is the one that seems to have a really 'low' period in the big matches, a period when he seems to fall away. While Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer are a lot more consistent with their level, Murray does seem to lapse and this why some of his Grand Slam defeats haven't been the heartbreaking losses that the likes of Federer have suffered, but more a fall away.
I know some will blame his body breaking down at a critical moment, but I am not buying that, nor am I buying the fact that he had to play the second Semi Final as there is still a day rest and he had been in a 'short' five-setter.
As I say, Murray is still the second best player in the World in my opinion, and his lapses won't affect him in the majority of tournaments he plays, but winning a Grand Slam with that still happening is unlikely to happen twice, barring real scheduling help.
New breed of players on the WTA Tour: The Woman's game has evolved in recent years into bringing a lot of power onto the Tour and that has meant that players are making their big breakthrough as they get older and the teenage sensations are likely a thing of the past.
However, the performances of Heather Watson, Laura Robson and Sloane Stephens has shown that there are some very good players coming up as the Woman's game is being replenished. The veterans like Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams remain at the top of the game, while Na Li had another sensational tournament, but the youngsters are starting to make inroads.
The big question is which of the trio I mentioned is going to win a Grand Slam tournament? I think Stephens and Robson will find a way to win one of the Majors, but I am not sure Heather Watson will be able to avoid playing someone that will eventually be strong enough and consistent enough to knock her over before she completes a Major win.
If I was going to compare the players with some of the top ones in the World, I would say Stephens is a little like Victoria Azarenka (I don't mean she will definitely reach that level, but her game is similar), Robson reminds me of Petra Kvitova and Watson could perhaps have a career like Caroline Wozniacki.
However, these players are young and development is still the key for them.
Serena Williams is still the best female player on Tour, but can be vulnerable in Grand Slam tournaments: Over the last 14 months, Serena Williams has been pretty much the favourite for every Grand Slam tournament she has played and rightly so.
However, the Australian Open proved yet again that Serena plays one poor match a tournament and thus is likely going to be too short for the majority of occasions when she is priced at less than 2.20 to win a tournament.
Over the last 5 Grand Slams, Ekaterina Makarova, Virginie Razzano and now Sloane Stephens have been able to do enough to knock out Serena, while Jie Zheng pushed her all the way at Wimbledon last year.
That should be a bit of caution for those that like the American in the outright markets going forward, particularly at her worst Major which is the French Open.
Australian Open Final: 18-26, - 8.59 Units (87 Units Staked, - 9.87% Yield)
Season 2013: - 2.62 Units (133 Units Staked, - 1.97% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Sunday, 27 January 2013
Australian Open Men's Final Pick 2013 (January 27th)
The last match of the Australian Open Grand Slam tournament involves who I consider to be the two best players in the World at the moment.
It should be a fascinating match between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, two players who know each other's game inside out and both have a chance of making history. Novak Djokovic will become the first male player to win 3 in a row in Australia if he wins, while Andy Murray can become the first player to win his first 2 Grand Slam titles back to back.
I don't believe fatigue is a real factor in the contest as both players have had some time off since their Semi Final and this isn't the scheduling problem that the US Open encounters over the years when they try and play the Men's Semi Finals on the Saturday and then the Final on the Sunday- clearly that is unfair to the winner of the second Semi Final, especially if they are involved in a long match, but I don't believe that factors in here.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Andy Murray: I think both of these players are capable of winning this tournament, but I liked Novak Djokovic at the start of the tournament and there hasn't been a lot to make me think that won't be the case on Sunday.
Both players will likely have a fair bit of success when the other is serving, but I just believe the Serb is mentally tougher than his opponent and that may end up being the difference between the players.
I can't imagine either being whitewashed and there is probably a higher chance of seeing a deciding set than a 3-0 win for either player in my opinion. However, I just feel Djokovic is going to win the bigger points and come through in this one in four sets and so I'll have a small interest in him to do so.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 4.33 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 17-26, - 11.92 Units (78 Units Staked, - 15.3% Yield)
It should be a fascinating match between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, two players who know each other's game inside out and both have a chance of making history. Novak Djokovic will become the first male player to win 3 in a row in Australia if he wins, while Andy Murray can become the first player to win his first 2 Grand Slam titles back to back.
I don't believe fatigue is a real factor in the contest as both players have had some time off since their Semi Final and this isn't the scheduling problem that the US Open encounters over the years when they try and play the Men's Semi Finals on the Saturday and then the Final on the Sunday- clearly that is unfair to the winner of the second Semi Final, especially if they are involved in a long match, but I don't believe that factors in here.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Andy Murray: I think both of these players are capable of winning this tournament, but I liked Novak Djokovic at the start of the tournament and there hasn't been a lot to make me think that won't be the case on Sunday.
Both players will likely have a fair bit of success when the other is serving, but I just believe the Serb is mentally tougher than his opponent and that may end up being the difference between the players.
I can't imagine either being whitewashed and there is probably a higher chance of seeing a deciding set than a 3-0 win for either player in my opinion. However, I just feel Djokovic is going to win the bigger points and come through in this one in four sets and so I'll have a small interest in him to do so.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 4.33 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 17-26, - 11.92 Units (78 Units Staked, - 15.3% Yield)
Thursday, 24 January 2013
Australian Open Day 12 Picks 2013 (January 25th)
The Woman's Final was set yesterday and we will see Victoria Azarenka get the chance to win back to back Australian Open titles when she faces Na Li.
It was a day full of big stories, the first of those being the way Li completely dismantled Maria Sharapova in possibly her best performance since winning the French Open in 2011. However, that story was put to the back burner thanks to the controversy surrounding Azarenka's win over Sloane Stephens in the second Semi Final.
Most people would know the story- Azarenka choked 5 match points and decided to take a medical time out which lasted 10 minutes. She then came out and subsequently broke Stephen's serve to win the match.
The controversy then started when Azarenka seemed to imply the only reason for her medical time out was because she was 'overwhelmed' and had basically taken the time out to get her emotions in check. Obviously that led to a Twitter blow up, as is the case these days over every major incident in sports, and has irritated many tennis writers around the World.
It is a fact that the medical time out has regularly been used by players to break up play and that is mainly because there is no real consequence to taken one- there was a point when players would go for a 'comfort break' between sets to slow down an opponents momentum, but that has seemingly been replaced by this new method of 'gamesmanship'.
Clearly there are some situations where you need to take a medical time out so it is hard to distinguish between those players who just feel 'overwhelmed' and those who have definite concerns. I heard one commentator say that a good idea would be to use the same rules as they do in boxing.
In boxing, you get one minute between rounds to get your senses- at the end of that minute, you either can get up and continue the fight or you have the choice to quit. That wouldn't be a bad idea for tennis, although the argument does go that spectators could be punished with poor quality matches or players withdrawing with minor issues, especially in smaller events.
This is a real issue for tennis with the bad press Azarenka's decision has made- I really don't know if she was playing the rules or whether something was really wrong, but she is going to be given a lukewarm reaction at best on Saturday in the Final.
After he drama of the Women's Semi Finals, the Men's Semi Final between Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer was a real anti-climax that Djokovic won without really breaking a set. It was a dominating performance from the World Number 1 and I think he is rightly the favourite to win the tournament now, especially if the Andy Murray-Roger Federer Semi Final goes the distance on Friday.
Roger Federer v Andy Murray: I have been thinking about this Semi Final for a couple of days since it was set they were going to meet one another and I have decided that it is worth backing Roger Federer to beat Andy Murray in what could be a classic match.
Both of these Men will be supremely confident they can win, but I just feel Federer won't mind the conditions here and I think he can be a little too good for Murray.
The biggest problem for Federer at the moment are those players that can take the racquet out of his hand and I am not sure Murray is going to be aggressive enough for long enough to do so. I know Murray can get to the Federer serve, but the Swiss man will also have success against the Murray serve, particularly if the British player doesn't reach at least 60% first serves.
I think a lot is being made of the Olympic Final win for Murray, but Federer was absolutely exhausted in that match, both physically and mentally, and I think he is going to be fine with a couple of days rest from his five set win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. I'll be the first to admit that Federer didn't play that well in that match, but Tsonga was playing above expectations too yet it is Federer who has got through to the Semi Final.
This is a ridiculously close Semi Final so taking the underdog does look the call- I can make cases for either player to win the tournament, but I think Federer is a little more battle tested than Murray and that could see him over the line, possibly in 4 sets.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 16-25, - 12.12 Units (74 Units Staked, - 16.4% Yield)
It was a day full of big stories, the first of those being the way Li completely dismantled Maria Sharapova in possibly her best performance since winning the French Open in 2011. However, that story was put to the back burner thanks to the controversy surrounding Azarenka's win over Sloane Stephens in the second Semi Final.
Most people would know the story- Azarenka choked 5 match points and decided to take a medical time out which lasted 10 minutes. She then came out and subsequently broke Stephen's serve to win the match.
The controversy then started when Azarenka seemed to imply the only reason for her medical time out was because she was 'overwhelmed' and had basically taken the time out to get her emotions in check. Obviously that led to a Twitter blow up, as is the case these days over every major incident in sports, and has irritated many tennis writers around the World.
It is a fact that the medical time out has regularly been used by players to break up play and that is mainly because there is no real consequence to taken one- there was a point when players would go for a 'comfort break' between sets to slow down an opponents momentum, but that has seemingly been replaced by this new method of 'gamesmanship'.
Clearly there are some situations where you need to take a medical time out so it is hard to distinguish between those players who just feel 'overwhelmed' and those who have definite concerns. I heard one commentator say that a good idea would be to use the same rules as they do in boxing.
In boxing, you get one minute between rounds to get your senses- at the end of that minute, you either can get up and continue the fight or you have the choice to quit. That wouldn't be a bad idea for tennis, although the argument does go that spectators could be punished with poor quality matches or players withdrawing with minor issues, especially in smaller events.
This is a real issue for tennis with the bad press Azarenka's decision has made- I really don't know if she was playing the rules or whether something was really wrong, but she is going to be given a lukewarm reaction at best on Saturday in the Final.
After he drama of the Women's Semi Finals, the Men's Semi Final between Novak Djokovic and David Ferrer was a real anti-climax that Djokovic won without really breaking a set. It was a dominating performance from the World Number 1 and I think he is rightly the favourite to win the tournament now, especially if the Andy Murray-Roger Federer Semi Final goes the distance on Friday.
Roger Federer v Andy Murray: I have been thinking about this Semi Final for a couple of days since it was set they were going to meet one another and I have decided that it is worth backing Roger Federer to beat Andy Murray in what could be a classic match.
Both of these Men will be supremely confident they can win, but I just feel Federer won't mind the conditions here and I think he can be a little too good for Murray.
The biggest problem for Federer at the moment are those players that can take the racquet out of his hand and I am not sure Murray is going to be aggressive enough for long enough to do so. I know Murray can get to the Federer serve, but the Swiss man will also have success against the Murray serve, particularly if the British player doesn't reach at least 60% first serves.
I think a lot is being made of the Olympic Final win for Murray, but Federer was absolutely exhausted in that match, both physically and mentally, and I think he is going to be fine with a couple of days rest from his five set win over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. I'll be the first to admit that Federer didn't play that well in that match, but Tsonga was playing above expectations too yet it is Federer who has got through to the Semi Final.
This is a ridiculously close Semi Final so taking the underdog does look the call- I can make cases for either player to win the tournament, but I think Federer is a little more battle tested than Murray and that could see him over the line, possibly in 4 sets.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 2.38 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 16-25, - 12.12 Units (74 Units Staked, - 16.4% Yield)
Sunday, 5 August 2012
Tennis Recap July 28-August 5 (London Olympics and Washington)
The Olympic Games are over, as far as the tennis players are concerned anyway, and everyone will be moving to Canada in preparation for the US Open which will be beginning in a little over three weeks from today.
Below I have a few thoughts from the tournaments played this week and I will update the profit/loss from the week and overall for the season.
Congratulations to Andy Murray, but did anyone else feel the two players would have swapped the Finals from here and Wimbledon earlier this month?: It was the biggest win in Andy Murray's career in terms of the appeal the Olympics have, but it is funny to think he will win less Ranking points than if he wins in Toronto at the Masters event next week.
I was glad to see Murray get the first 'big' title of his career and we could see him move on to bigger and better things from here, but I'll speak more about that below.
I couldn't help but wonder, while watching the Final, that I was sure that both players would perhaps have swapped winning at Wimbledon and the Olympics so Murray took home the Grand Slam title and Roger Federer took the Olympic Gold.
However, that was before I heard the Federer interview when he suggested he was disappointed but just happy to have a singles Medal to go along with the Doubles Gold he picked up four years ago and I think he is the less likely of the two that would have swapped the occasion.
In saying that, Federer could have really joined an elite number of players that have won the 'Golden Slam' and it perhaps leaves his place in history under threat from Rafael Nadal if the Spaniard can pick up a few more Grand Slam titles on his bad knees.
What now for Andy Murray?: Andy Murray has the Gold Medal and there is a genuine chance that his belief has now built to such a level that he could win at the US Open in the final Grand Slam of the season.
Murray always felt the atmosphere at Flushing Meadows plus the choice of court would suit his game the best and now he has proven he can beat one of the big three in a best of five set match when it really matters.
I hope this has given him the belief that he can kick on and win his maiden Grand Slam title, while the US Open could represent his best chance to do so.
Rafael Nadal is still to return from injury, Novak Djokovic looks exhausted and Roger Federer is turning 31 and is also in need of a rest.
My concern still comes up in whether Murray can continuously produce when the matches are best of five from the First Round rather than best of three before the Final, but he is playing probably the best tennis of all the players on Tour at this moment.
The draw, as ever, will be all important, but his belief will not be higher and Murray looks the man to beat at this moment.
Is there anyone that can come close to matching Serena Williams in the Women's game?: Serena Williams looked unplayable on the way to winning the Gold Medal in London and completing her own Golden Slam and she has now won all three tournaments she has competed in since being beaten in the French Open First Round.
No player is even close to the form shown by Williams in the last six weeks or so and her swatting of Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova, the current World Number 1 and 3, shows that the 'real' Number 1 remains the American.
Right now, I wouldn't back anyone else to take the US Open title in the Women's game and it is going to take a really special effort to beat Williams. She is serving wonderfully well, hitting powerful groundstrokes all over the court and has the swagger of someone who knows she is going to win.
Juan Martin Del Potro may be back: I love the way Juan Martin Del Potro plays the game of tennis and also the way he is very humble in victory and gracious in defeat.
In 2009, it looked like he was ready to make a real splash on the Main Tour as he reached the Semi Final at the French Open, won the US Open and was the Runner Up in the End of Year Championships... And then he was hit with a wrist injury.
He returned to full health in January 2011, but I have been holding off on believing he was truly back- even last month at Wimbledon I wasn't sure he was going to get to the Quarter Final and I began to worry that he may never return to the form he had displayed three years ago.
How happy am I to think I may just have been wrong to worry?! Del Potro finished with the Bronze Medal here but he pushed Roger Federer all the way in the Semi Final (and may just have taken out everything from the Swiss man in the process) and then beat Novak Djokovic to pick up the Medal.
He was serving exceptionally well in the last two matches, but it was the heaviness and accuracy of his groundstrokes that really impressed me. He also showed the lack of fear that has made him the only winner of a Grand Slam outside of the top three in the last 30 Grand Slam events and I think Del Potro could be the biggest danger at the US Open where he has history.
If the draw is right, Del Potro may just be able to repeat his feat from 2009, although the best of five format can be a lot trickier to negotiate.
Daily Picks Final: 10-10, + 0.32 Units (39 Units Staked)
Outright Picks: - 0.80 Units (12 Units Staked)
Overall Weekly Final: - 0.48 Units (51 Units Staked)
Season 2012: + 58.85 Units (705 Units Staked, 8.35% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Below I have a few thoughts from the tournaments played this week and I will update the profit/loss from the week and overall for the season.
Congratulations to Andy Murray, but did anyone else feel the two players would have swapped the Finals from here and Wimbledon earlier this month?: It was the biggest win in Andy Murray's career in terms of the appeal the Olympics have, but it is funny to think he will win less Ranking points than if he wins in Toronto at the Masters event next week.
I was glad to see Murray get the first 'big' title of his career and we could see him move on to bigger and better things from here, but I'll speak more about that below.
I couldn't help but wonder, while watching the Final, that I was sure that both players would perhaps have swapped winning at Wimbledon and the Olympics so Murray took home the Grand Slam title and Roger Federer took the Olympic Gold.
However, that was before I heard the Federer interview when he suggested he was disappointed but just happy to have a singles Medal to go along with the Doubles Gold he picked up four years ago and I think he is the less likely of the two that would have swapped the occasion.
In saying that, Federer could have really joined an elite number of players that have won the 'Golden Slam' and it perhaps leaves his place in history under threat from Rafael Nadal if the Spaniard can pick up a few more Grand Slam titles on his bad knees.
What now for Andy Murray?: Andy Murray has the Gold Medal and there is a genuine chance that his belief has now built to such a level that he could win at the US Open in the final Grand Slam of the season.
Murray always felt the atmosphere at Flushing Meadows plus the choice of court would suit his game the best and now he has proven he can beat one of the big three in a best of five set match when it really matters.
I hope this has given him the belief that he can kick on and win his maiden Grand Slam title, while the US Open could represent his best chance to do so.
Rafael Nadal is still to return from injury, Novak Djokovic looks exhausted and Roger Federer is turning 31 and is also in need of a rest.
My concern still comes up in whether Murray can continuously produce when the matches are best of five from the First Round rather than best of three before the Final, but he is playing probably the best tennis of all the players on Tour at this moment.
The draw, as ever, will be all important, but his belief will not be higher and Murray looks the man to beat at this moment.
Is there anyone that can come close to matching Serena Williams in the Women's game?: Serena Williams looked unplayable on the way to winning the Gold Medal in London and completing her own Golden Slam and she has now won all three tournaments she has competed in since being beaten in the French Open First Round.
No player is even close to the form shown by Williams in the last six weeks or so and her swatting of Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova, the current World Number 1 and 3, shows that the 'real' Number 1 remains the American.
Right now, I wouldn't back anyone else to take the US Open title in the Women's game and it is going to take a really special effort to beat Williams. She is serving wonderfully well, hitting powerful groundstrokes all over the court and has the swagger of someone who knows she is going to win.
Juan Martin Del Potro may be back: I love the way Juan Martin Del Potro plays the game of tennis and also the way he is very humble in victory and gracious in defeat.
In 2009, it looked like he was ready to make a real splash on the Main Tour as he reached the Semi Final at the French Open, won the US Open and was the Runner Up in the End of Year Championships... And then he was hit with a wrist injury.
He returned to full health in January 2011, but I have been holding off on believing he was truly back- even last month at Wimbledon I wasn't sure he was going to get to the Quarter Final and I began to worry that he may never return to the form he had displayed three years ago.
How happy am I to think I may just have been wrong to worry?! Del Potro finished with the Bronze Medal here but he pushed Roger Federer all the way in the Semi Final (and may just have taken out everything from the Swiss man in the process) and then beat Novak Djokovic to pick up the Medal.
He was serving exceptionally well in the last two matches, but it was the heaviness and accuracy of his groundstrokes that really impressed me. He also showed the lack of fear that has made him the only winner of a Grand Slam outside of the top three in the last 30 Grand Slam events and I think Del Potro could be the biggest danger at the US Open where he has history.
If the draw is right, Del Potro may just be able to repeat his feat from 2009, although the best of five format can be a lot trickier to negotiate.
Daily Picks Final: 10-10, + 0.32 Units (39 Units Staked)
Outright Picks: - 0.80 Units (12 Units Staked)
Overall Weekly Final: - 0.48 Units (51 Units Staked)
Season 2012: + 58.85 Units (705 Units Staked, 8.35% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Sunday, 8 July 2012
Wimbledon Recap 2012 (July 8th)
The third Grand Slam of the season has come and gone and we have crowned two more players as Champions this season. They are both familiar to winning here at SW19 as Roger Federer and Serena Williams became the latest winners of one of the big prizes this season following on from Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova.
Below, I have a few thoughts from the tournament over the last couple of weeks and then I will show the profit/loss from the tournament and the season as a whole.
Roger Federer is once again a Grand Slam Champion: The last time Roger Federer was lifting one of the big prizes in tennis was back at the Australian Open in 2010 and there would have been a lot of people that thought he was unlikely to win another Grand Slam tournament.
However, he has been working hard to get back to the pinnacle of the Men's game and that has seen him perform the most consistently of all the players since the US Open last year, although he still had not really come close to winning a Grand Slam with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal looking a little too strong for him.
Even at this tournament, it did seem that winning the tournament was likely to be beyond him, but his come from behind win over Julien Benneteau proved to be pivotal. Federer also saved his two best performances for the final two matches against Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and that has also seen him reclaim the World Number 1 Ranking.
Federer is set to surpass the record that Pete Sampras had held for most weeks at World Number 1 and that should also leave him in good stead going into the Olympics and the US Open later this season.
It truly is a remarkable achievement to see Federer return to the Number 1 spot, particularly in this era where the depth in the Men's game is so strong and I do think it strengthens his claims to go down as the 'Greatest Player in History'. A lot of people would have ruled him out ever winning another Grand Slam, let alone getting back to Number 1, but it is the mark of the man that he has managed to do so.
I have always thought it would be tough for Federer to go down as the 'Greatest' if Rafa Nadal can reach, say 15 Grand Slams, particularly with the head to head record between the two players, but if Federer can add another couple of Slams to his record, it will be tough to surpass him.
I remember hearing Federer speak about getting to 20 Grand Slams before he retires and you wouldn't want to bet against him considering the desire and belief he has shown to get back to World Number 1... Do I think he will get to 20? I find that tough to believe with Federer reaching 31 years old next month and with the likes of Djokovic and Nadal around.
Is Federer now the favourite to win the Gold medal at the Olympics?: I think the fact the Olympics are going to be played on grass was always going to help Federer more than it hurt him, but I still think Rafael Nadal is the player that could cause problems and should still be the man to beat, along with Novak Djokovic, when it comes to the Gold Medal.
The best news about reaching World Number 1 for Federer is that he doesn't necessarily have to beat both Nadal and Djokovic, as he would have had to at this tournament if the Spaniard had not been beaten early, but the draw is still very important to his chances.
The grass courts are probably the only courts where Federer is less vulnerable to the big hitters, but the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych (who also beat Federer at the Olympics in Athens in 2004) would still think they have a chance of knocking him off, especially in a best of three sets match.
As I said, the draw is very important to decide who should be the favourite, but I still think the two Men immediately below him in the Rankings should be leading the markets.
How will Andy Murray be received by the public following his loss: First things first, I think Andy Murray should be given a lot of credit for reaching the Wimbledon Final and his performance should not be criticised as he really did give his all and came up a little short.
There was a moment in the second set when he missed a couple of balls that he had been dealing with previously and there were some comparisons with his loss to Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final at Wimbledon last year when he had an easy forehand to go a set and a break up on the Spaniard.
While there can't be anything disparaging to be said about Murray's performance, I think the genuine disappointment and tears at the post-match interview on the court will have adhered him to the millions that were watching on TV and I think he will have more sympathy and fans from that.
Murray apologised for Federer as he felt it may have taken away from the Swiss man's victory, but it did show a side of him that many would not have seen before and I think that can only be a good thing for a player that doesn't look the happiest on the court.
Why do so many think Murray does not deserve the support of the home fans?: I have heard from a few people that they wouldn't be backing Andy Murray after what he said about the England team back in 2006.
If you don't know, all Murray said was that he was supporting 'anyone but England' in the football World Cup, but it was a tongue-in-cheek comment that seems to have riled up a lot of English people.
I heard many say they don't like him because of those comments, but I am unashamedly a Murray fan- yes, he can look a little miserable at time, but he seems to have a dry sense of humour that I appreciate and I think he is actually a lot easier to get on with off the court than on it.
Personally, I have never seen the need to 'support' a person based on their nationality when it comes to individual sports as they are doing things for themselves first and foremost- so if someone says they don't like Murray because he looks a miserable bastard, fair enough... But to not like him for a comment made as a teenager looks a little silly as far as I am concerned, especially as I don't think anyone would want to be judged by what they said as teenagers I'm sure.
People should talk about a 'top three' not a 'top four': I have already said I like Andy Murray so I hope this is not read as being too critical of him, but I do think the use of 'big four' should be put on the back-burner by those in the media from now on and until Murray wins a Grand Slam.
The top three players look a level above Murray at the moment and I think there is actually a smaller gap between him and David Ferrer at Number 5 than there is between Murray and Rafa Nadal at Number 3.
We have to appreciate all the success Murray has had already in his career, but I just think it is doing the Djokovic, Federer and Nadal's of this World a disservice by not placing them head and shoulders above the rest in the Men's field.
IF Murray can win a Grand Slam, he would at least be in the same kind of conversation as the three players above him, especially as it could lead to further success at Slam level, but this term 'big four' has to be retired until Murray does win one.
Serena Williams is back on her throne: All the talk pre-Wimbledon was about the huge achievements that Maria Sharapova had made by winning just her fourth Grand Slam, albeit completing a career Grand Slam, but the real Queen of Women's tennis can now say she is back on her throne after winning the title here.
Serena Williams has managed to beat a life-threatening illness and won her first Grand Slam since winning Wimbledon in July 2010, but that win means she has more Wimbledon titles than Sharapova has Grand Slams- that should put it into perspective what kind of achievements Sharapova has and how much they are blown out of proportion compared to her peer in Williams.
It was important for Williams to win this title having fallen far short at the Australian and French Opens this season and also being surprised by Sam Stosur in the Final of the US Open last year.
The win will give Serena the belief that she can go on and really stamp her place in the history of the Women's game with further Grand Slam success and I think there is a vacuum in the Women's tour at the moment to suggest she can go on and dominate.
I think Serena will be the favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal and the US Open and I wouldn't want to bet against her right now with the confidence likely to have reached new heights.
Wimbledon is the latest in successful Grand Slam events: Wimbledon is the latest tournament where the outright picks have been very successful as I once again managed to get both the Men's and Women's Champion in the staking plan.
That means I have been successful in identifying the Winner of both the Men's and Women's events at all three Grand Slams so far.
Anyone who reads the blog with any regularity will know I don't like talking about my successes any more than the failures, but this is one thing I am extremely happy with.
Wimbledon Daily Picks Final: 21-17, + 8.88 Units (72 Units Staked)
Wimbledon Outright Picks Final: + 12.50 Units (9 Units Staked)
Wimbledon 2012 Final: + 21.38 Units (81 Units Staked)
Season 2012 Update: + 73.12 Units (609 Units Staked, 12.01% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Below, I have a few thoughts from the tournament over the last couple of weeks and then I will show the profit/loss from the tournament and the season as a whole.
Roger Federer is once again a Grand Slam Champion: The last time Roger Federer was lifting one of the big prizes in tennis was back at the Australian Open in 2010 and there would have been a lot of people that thought he was unlikely to win another Grand Slam tournament.
However, he has been working hard to get back to the pinnacle of the Men's game and that has seen him perform the most consistently of all the players since the US Open last year, although he still had not really come close to winning a Grand Slam with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal looking a little too strong for him.
Even at this tournament, it did seem that winning the tournament was likely to be beyond him, but his come from behind win over Julien Benneteau proved to be pivotal. Federer also saved his two best performances for the final two matches against Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and that has also seen him reclaim the World Number 1 Ranking.
Federer is set to surpass the record that Pete Sampras had held for most weeks at World Number 1 and that should also leave him in good stead going into the Olympics and the US Open later this season.
It truly is a remarkable achievement to see Federer return to the Number 1 spot, particularly in this era where the depth in the Men's game is so strong and I do think it strengthens his claims to go down as the 'Greatest Player in History'. A lot of people would have ruled him out ever winning another Grand Slam, let alone getting back to Number 1, but it is the mark of the man that he has managed to do so.
I have always thought it would be tough for Federer to go down as the 'Greatest' if Rafa Nadal can reach, say 15 Grand Slams, particularly with the head to head record between the two players, but if Federer can add another couple of Slams to his record, it will be tough to surpass him.
I remember hearing Federer speak about getting to 20 Grand Slams before he retires and you wouldn't want to bet against him considering the desire and belief he has shown to get back to World Number 1... Do I think he will get to 20? I find that tough to believe with Federer reaching 31 years old next month and with the likes of Djokovic and Nadal around.
Is Federer now the favourite to win the Gold medal at the Olympics?: I think the fact the Olympics are going to be played on grass was always going to help Federer more than it hurt him, but I still think Rafael Nadal is the player that could cause problems and should still be the man to beat, along with Novak Djokovic, when it comes to the Gold Medal.
The best news about reaching World Number 1 for Federer is that he doesn't necessarily have to beat both Nadal and Djokovic, as he would have had to at this tournament if the Spaniard had not been beaten early, but the draw is still very important to his chances.
The grass courts are probably the only courts where Federer is less vulnerable to the big hitters, but the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych (who also beat Federer at the Olympics in Athens in 2004) would still think they have a chance of knocking him off, especially in a best of three sets match.
As I said, the draw is very important to decide who should be the favourite, but I still think the two Men immediately below him in the Rankings should be leading the markets.
How will Andy Murray be received by the public following his loss: First things first, I think Andy Murray should be given a lot of credit for reaching the Wimbledon Final and his performance should not be criticised as he really did give his all and came up a little short.
There was a moment in the second set when he missed a couple of balls that he had been dealing with previously and there were some comparisons with his loss to Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final at Wimbledon last year when he had an easy forehand to go a set and a break up on the Spaniard.
While there can't be anything disparaging to be said about Murray's performance, I think the genuine disappointment and tears at the post-match interview on the court will have adhered him to the millions that were watching on TV and I think he will have more sympathy and fans from that.
Murray apologised for Federer as he felt it may have taken away from the Swiss man's victory, but it did show a side of him that many would not have seen before and I think that can only be a good thing for a player that doesn't look the happiest on the court.
Why do so many think Murray does not deserve the support of the home fans?: I have heard from a few people that they wouldn't be backing Andy Murray after what he said about the England team back in 2006.
If you don't know, all Murray said was that he was supporting 'anyone but England' in the football World Cup, but it was a tongue-in-cheek comment that seems to have riled up a lot of English people.
I heard many say they don't like him because of those comments, but I am unashamedly a Murray fan- yes, he can look a little miserable at time, but he seems to have a dry sense of humour that I appreciate and I think he is actually a lot easier to get on with off the court than on it.
Personally, I have never seen the need to 'support' a person based on their nationality when it comes to individual sports as they are doing things for themselves first and foremost- so if someone says they don't like Murray because he looks a miserable bastard, fair enough... But to not like him for a comment made as a teenager looks a little silly as far as I am concerned, especially as I don't think anyone would want to be judged by what they said as teenagers I'm sure.
People should talk about a 'top three' not a 'top four': I have already said I like Andy Murray so I hope this is not read as being too critical of him, but I do think the use of 'big four' should be put on the back-burner by those in the media from now on and until Murray wins a Grand Slam.
The top three players look a level above Murray at the moment and I think there is actually a smaller gap between him and David Ferrer at Number 5 than there is between Murray and Rafa Nadal at Number 3.
We have to appreciate all the success Murray has had already in his career, but I just think it is doing the Djokovic, Federer and Nadal's of this World a disservice by not placing them head and shoulders above the rest in the Men's field.
IF Murray can win a Grand Slam, he would at least be in the same kind of conversation as the three players above him, especially as it could lead to further success at Slam level, but this term 'big four' has to be retired until Murray does win one.
Serena Williams is back on her throne: All the talk pre-Wimbledon was about the huge achievements that Maria Sharapova had made by winning just her fourth Grand Slam, albeit completing a career Grand Slam, but the real Queen of Women's tennis can now say she is back on her throne after winning the title here.
Serena Williams has managed to beat a life-threatening illness and won her first Grand Slam since winning Wimbledon in July 2010, but that win means she has more Wimbledon titles than Sharapova has Grand Slams- that should put it into perspective what kind of achievements Sharapova has and how much they are blown out of proportion compared to her peer in Williams.
It was important for Williams to win this title having fallen far short at the Australian and French Opens this season and also being surprised by Sam Stosur in the Final of the US Open last year.
The win will give Serena the belief that she can go on and really stamp her place in the history of the Women's game with further Grand Slam success and I think there is a vacuum in the Women's tour at the moment to suggest she can go on and dominate.
I think Serena will be the favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal and the US Open and I wouldn't want to bet against her right now with the confidence likely to have reached new heights.
Wimbledon is the latest in successful Grand Slam events: Wimbledon is the latest tournament where the outright picks have been very successful as I once again managed to get both the Men's and Women's Champion in the staking plan.
That means I have been successful in identifying the Winner of both the Men's and Women's events at all three Grand Slams so far.
Anyone who reads the blog with any regularity will know I don't like talking about my successes any more than the failures, but this is one thing I am extremely happy with.
Wimbledon Daily Picks Final: 21-17, + 8.88 Units (72 Units Staked)
Wimbledon Outright Picks Final: + 12.50 Units (9 Units Staked)
Wimbledon 2012 Final: + 21.38 Units (81 Units Staked)
Season 2012 Update: + 73.12 Units (609 Units Staked, 12.01% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Wimbledon Day 13 Picks - Men's Final (July 8th 2012)
I am going to have a full recap of the Wimbledon event after this one is completed tomorrow, so I will use this post to solely make my pick for the Men's Final.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: It looks like it is going to be a rainy day tomorrow so I would be very surprised if the organisers of the tournament do not decide to shut the roof and that should favour Roger Federer of the two players in action.
If you want to get the British 'feel good factor', then it would probably be best to read the BBC or one of the daily newspapers that will be talking about that side of the match as I just want to concentrate on the match.
Andy Murray is trying to play down the expectations on his shoulders by describing Roger Federer as the favourite, but he won't be able to completely forget that the whole nation is watching and waiting in anticipation. Murray got tight to a certain extent in the last couple of sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he was looking a little tired mentally at the end of that match.
Federer is also playing under a lot of expectation, but he has won 16 Grand Slam titles so he knows how to deal with it, at least that is what we expect. However, he has not won a title since the Australian Open in 2010 and so there is a chance he may get a little nervous if the finish line is in sight.
The big problem for Murray may just be the conditions tomorrow and the indoor court will favour Federer heavily in my opinion. It should make it easier for the Swiss man to dominate points behind his serve and forehand and we saw him make full use of that against Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final.
The backhand side is Murray's strength, but I think he will need to be more attacking on that side if he is to win this match, while he has to keep serving as big as he has been at critical times.
Unfortunately for Murray, this is by far the toughest opponent he would have seen over the last couple of weeks and I think there has been enough signs that he might not have enough to overcome an opponent of the quality of Federer.
Federer has had bigger scares in the tournament, but I think he has got to the peak of his performances at just the right time and I expect he will win this one in three or four sets and cover this handicap.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.90 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 20-17, + 7.08 Units (70 Units Staked)
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Andy Murray: It looks like it is going to be a rainy day tomorrow so I would be very surprised if the organisers of the tournament do not decide to shut the roof and that should favour Roger Federer of the two players in action.
If you want to get the British 'feel good factor', then it would probably be best to read the BBC or one of the daily newspapers that will be talking about that side of the match as I just want to concentrate on the match.
Andy Murray is trying to play down the expectations on his shoulders by describing Roger Federer as the favourite, but he won't be able to completely forget that the whole nation is watching and waiting in anticipation. Murray got tight to a certain extent in the last couple of sets against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and he was looking a little tired mentally at the end of that match.
Federer is also playing under a lot of expectation, but he has won 16 Grand Slam titles so he knows how to deal with it, at least that is what we expect. However, he has not won a title since the Australian Open in 2010 and so there is a chance he may get a little nervous if the finish line is in sight.
The big problem for Murray may just be the conditions tomorrow and the indoor court will favour Federer heavily in my opinion. It should make it easier for the Swiss man to dominate points behind his serve and forehand and we saw him make full use of that against Novak Djokovic in the Semi Final.
The backhand side is Murray's strength, but I think he will need to be more attacking on that side if he is to win this match, while he has to keep serving as big as he has been at critical times.
Unfortunately for Murray, this is by far the toughest opponent he would have seen over the last couple of weeks and I think there has been enough signs that he might not have enough to overcome an opponent of the quality of Federer.
Federer has had bigger scares in the tournament, but I think he has got to the peak of his performances at just the right time and I expect he will win this one in three or four sets and cover this handicap.
MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 1.90 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 20-17, + 7.08 Units (70 Units Staked)
Friday, 29 June 2012
Wimbledon Day 5 Picks (June 29th 2012)
This has to have been one of the more 'headline-making' days during the course of the entire tennis season so far as news story after news story made the rounds before the surprise exit of Rafael Nadal in the Second Round of the tournament.
The day began with the sports pages all talking about Gilles Simon who had made the comment that Women do not deserve equal pay at the Grand Slams as he felt the Men were bringing in more coverage and thus should be reflected in the payroll scale. It was interesting as the Frenchman has just been elected to join the ATP Player Council for the next two years so is clearly someone that has the respect of his peers.
You got the normal reaction from some who will criticise anyone that is not 'politically correct' in any statements they make (these same people are also the ones most vocal about the lack of characters in sports these days, yet won't want anyone to rock the boat with anything they have to say to the press). Others shrugged their shoulders, while it was obvious that Simon was going to be grilled in his Press Conference following his match with Xavier Malisse.
Simon has also been criticised by some of the female players on the Tour, but he has been fighting his corner and openly stated that every other male player actually feels the same way.
What's my take on the matter? I actually semi-agree with Simon if I am honest... I don't think there should be level pay on the Grand Slam level as the Men play best of five sets and so should be given more money for essentially doing more work. HOWEVER, I do think some of the Masters events, like Miami and Indian Wells for example, that have Men and Women events should actually make the prize money the same as they do the same amount of work.
Some of the players suggested that TV ratings should determine which of the two Tours deserve more money, but that makes no sense as it swings in roundabouts where both have the edge at different times.
I do think the WTA Tour should be pushing for their matches to be extended to best of five at the Grand Slam level though to make this argument moot. I keep hearing how the Women work just as hard as the Men, so I don't think there will be a fitness issue, although it may be tough for tournaments to be completed on time if there are too many matches going the distance and lasting for a few hours.
That shouldn't be an argument against extending the Women matches to best of five though, and I think it would make a lot of sense for them to do so for the Grand Slams. It would differentiate the Slams from the other tournaments, as it does for the ATP Tour currently, and I actually think it would make the Women matches more exciting as more momentum shifts means more drama.
This is just a personal view, but this sounds like an issue that may just be under the spotlight again.
Andy Murray got through to the Third Round today and later drama means there will be growing expectation on the British Number 1 to reach his first Wimbledon Final. However, the biggest story coming out of his match was the Press Conference given by Ivo Karlovic in which he essentially said he was 'cheated' out of a win by a number of foot faults that were called against him.
There were 11 foot faults in all and, as Karlovic told the media, they all seemed to come at big moments in the match and this is a definite controversy that needs to be nipped in the bud immediately if the reputation of the tournament is going to be kept intact.
Someone needs to view the video of the foot faults ASAP and prove that they were made- the big issue is that foot faults are generally ignored these days so something needs to be done as to why so many were called today.
I am sure someone will have checked the video by the time you read this, but the 'integrity' of the tournament will be at stake if it is proved that the line judges were making mistakes in calling them over and over... What can they do if that was the case anyway?
There may be fines and there may be suspensions, but a player has been knocked out of the tournament now and this has to be settled so there are no other issues like this going forward. It was a stunning comment by Karlovic today and one that will need to be resolved- I also cannot wait for the reaction he gets when he goes out to play doubles tomorrow morning.
Finally, the drama I talked about above was the fact that Rafael Nadal has been knocked out of the tournament by a player ranked at Number 100 in the World- this is also the lowest ranked player that has beaten Nadal on the Tour and it was a stunning achievement from Lukas Rosol.
Nadal was outhit by Rosol, but he must have been cursing his misfortune of having to play in an indoor court against an opponent that was hitting monster serves and playing some lights out tennis. It was simply some stunning tennis from Rosol and he didn't seem to think about what he was about to achieve as he served out in the fifth set with two aces to wrap up the game.
The tennis played was once-in-a-lifetime stuff and this was probably the biggest surprise I have witnessed in the Grand Slams (in the Men's draw) since Robin Soderling beat Nadal at the French Open in 2009.
There were plenty of similarities to that match in my mind as I continued to wait for the moment when Rosol would make a couple of mistakes and open the door for the Spaniard, but it didn't come and Rosol was a worthy winner.
The expectations on Andy Murray will have increased as that seems to have opened up the bottom half of the draw, but I think the real beneficiary may be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has nothing to fear from his Quarter of the draw.
Murray still has a couple of tough matches to negotiate before he gets to the Semi Finals, while Tsonga seems to have a clear run in all honesty and the Frenchman may just get a chance to prove he was right in saying he can beat Novak Djokovic on grass having pushed him so hard at the French Open.
Random thought: After seeing how the Nadal match finished, how much will Roger Federer be begging for rain on Semi Final day next Friday if he has Novak Djokovic as his opponent?
Day 5 Picks:
Janko Tipsarevic - 3.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Janko Tipsarevic has lost his last two matches against Mikhail Youzhny, but the last of those came back in 2010 and I think the careers of these two players have gone in opposite directions since then and the Serb World Number 8 is likely to be too strong this time.
Tipsarevic has been serving pretty effectively during this tournament and I think he is enjoying the faster conditions that seem to be in operation at the moment. He has also played on this court before in the event and should be used to his surroundings unlike Youzhny who has been placed off the show courts.
The Russian is still a tough prospect and has moved through the draw without any real worries so far, but this is a marked rise in quality of opponent and Youzhny has also had an issue in protecting his own serve so far this season.
It wouldn't be a massive surprise if the match did indeed go into four sets, but I do like Tipsarevic coming through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets v Nicolas Almagro: My big concern about this match is the fact that Nicolas Almagro has a 3-0 head to head record against Richard Gasquet and I know the Frenchman can sometimes find it tough to escape the mental aspect of matches.
However, I think Gasquet is definitely the better grass court player of the two and I think he will eventually be able to show that off.
Both have been effective behind serve for much of the tournament so far, but it is Almagro who has been forced to spend more time on the court and that can come back to haunt a player especially if they are to fall behind in the match.
The players are likely to be showing off two of the best backhands on the court (expect the commentators to cream over that fact at least ten times during the course of the match), but Gasquet is a former Semi Finalist here and I think the grass court pedigree he has will be the difference.
This is possibly going to four sets, but I will look for Gasquet to be the player making his way into the Fourth Round on Monday.
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games v Sloane Stephens: This is a fascinating match, but it is one that I think Sabine Lisicki can come through.
Sloane Stephens is an up and coming player on the WTA Tour, but the young American doesn't have the same grass court pedigree as the German who reached the Semi Final here last season and that may just make the difference in this one.
Stephens has performed well this season as she looks to get up the Rankings, but I think she has come up a little short against some of the better players and Lisicki, on a grass court, does fall into that category as far as I am concerned.
Some may be concerned that Lisicki had to win a long third set to get to this match, but take a look at what she did last year- Lisicki had to come from a set behind to win 8-6 in the third against Na Li and then went on and comfortably won her Third Round match.
I don't expect it to be that easy, but a 6-4, 6-4 win for Lisicki would not be a big surprise.
Shuai Peng - 2.5 games v Arantxa Rus: I am going for the occasion to be a little too much for Arantxa Rus in this one having caused one of the surprises of the tournaments when she beat Samantha Stosur in three sets.
Shuai Peng is a decent grass court player, reaching the Fourth Round here last season, and I think the Chinese player can be a little too consistent for Rus in this one.
It wouldn't be the first time that a player causing a surprise is then beaten in the next match they play, while Rus has not really had a deep run in any of the grass court tournaments she has previously played.
The lefty serve may cause Peng a few early problems in all honesty, but I think she can get in front once she has the hang of that and come through possibly 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.
MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets @ 1.85 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shuai Peng - 2.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 9-7, + 5.72 Units (31 Units Staked)
The day began with the sports pages all talking about Gilles Simon who had made the comment that Women do not deserve equal pay at the Grand Slams as he felt the Men were bringing in more coverage and thus should be reflected in the payroll scale. It was interesting as the Frenchman has just been elected to join the ATP Player Council for the next two years so is clearly someone that has the respect of his peers.
You got the normal reaction from some who will criticise anyone that is not 'politically correct' in any statements they make (these same people are also the ones most vocal about the lack of characters in sports these days, yet won't want anyone to rock the boat with anything they have to say to the press). Others shrugged their shoulders, while it was obvious that Simon was going to be grilled in his Press Conference following his match with Xavier Malisse.
Simon has also been criticised by some of the female players on the Tour, but he has been fighting his corner and openly stated that every other male player actually feels the same way.
What's my take on the matter? I actually semi-agree with Simon if I am honest... I don't think there should be level pay on the Grand Slam level as the Men play best of five sets and so should be given more money for essentially doing more work. HOWEVER, I do think some of the Masters events, like Miami and Indian Wells for example, that have Men and Women events should actually make the prize money the same as they do the same amount of work.
Some of the players suggested that TV ratings should determine which of the two Tours deserve more money, but that makes no sense as it swings in roundabouts where both have the edge at different times.
I do think the WTA Tour should be pushing for their matches to be extended to best of five at the Grand Slam level though to make this argument moot. I keep hearing how the Women work just as hard as the Men, so I don't think there will be a fitness issue, although it may be tough for tournaments to be completed on time if there are too many matches going the distance and lasting for a few hours.
That shouldn't be an argument against extending the Women matches to best of five though, and I think it would make a lot of sense for them to do so for the Grand Slams. It would differentiate the Slams from the other tournaments, as it does for the ATP Tour currently, and I actually think it would make the Women matches more exciting as more momentum shifts means more drama.
This is just a personal view, but this sounds like an issue that may just be under the spotlight again.
Andy Murray got through to the Third Round today and later drama means there will be growing expectation on the British Number 1 to reach his first Wimbledon Final. However, the biggest story coming out of his match was the Press Conference given by Ivo Karlovic in which he essentially said he was 'cheated' out of a win by a number of foot faults that were called against him.
There were 11 foot faults in all and, as Karlovic told the media, they all seemed to come at big moments in the match and this is a definite controversy that needs to be nipped in the bud immediately if the reputation of the tournament is going to be kept intact.
Someone needs to view the video of the foot faults ASAP and prove that they were made- the big issue is that foot faults are generally ignored these days so something needs to be done as to why so many were called today.
I am sure someone will have checked the video by the time you read this, but the 'integrity' of the tournament will be at stake if it is proved that the line judges were making mistakes in calling them over and over... What can they do if that was the case anyway?
There may be fines and there may be suspensions, but a player has been knocked out of the tournament now and this has to be settled so there are no other issues like this going forward. It was a stunning comment by Karlovic today and one that will need to be resolved- I also cannot wait for the reaction he gets when he goes out to play doubles tomorrow morning.
Finally, the drama I talked about above was the fact that Rafael Nadal has been knocked out of the tournament by a player ranked at Number 100 in the World- this is also the lowest ranked player that has beaten Nadal on the Tour and it was a stunning achievement from Lukas Rosol.
Nadal was outhit by Rosol, but he must have been cursing his misfortune of having to play in an indoor court against an opponent that was hitting monster serves and playing some lights out tennis. It was simply some stunning tennis from Rosol and he didn't seem to think about what he was about to achieve as he served out in the fifth set with two aces to wrap up the game.
The tennis played was once-in-a-lifetime stuff and this was probably the biggest surprise I have witnessed in the Grand Slams (in the Men's draw) since Robin Soderling beat Nadal at the French Open in 2009.
There were plenty of similarities to that match in my mind as I continued to wait for the moment when Rosol would make a couple of mistakes and open the door for the Spaniard, but it didn't come and Rosol was a worthy winner.
The expectations on Andy Murray will have increased as that seems to have opened up the bottom half of the draw, but I think the real beneficiary may be Jo-Wilfried Tsonga who has nothing to fear from his Quarter of the draw.
Murray still has a couple of tough matches to negotiate before he gets to the Semi Finals, while Tsonga seems to have a clear run in all honesty and the Frenchman may just get a chance to prove he was right in saying he can beat Novak Djokovic on grass having pushed him so hard at the French Open.
Random thought: After seeing how the Nadal match finished, how much will Roger Federer be begging for rain on Semi Final day next Friday if he has Novak Djokovic as his opponent?
Day 5 Picks:
Janko Tipsarevic - 3.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Janko Tipsarevic has lost his last two matches against Mikhail Youzhny, but the last of those came back in 2010 and I think the careers of these two players have gone in opposite directions since then and the Serb World Number 8 is likely to be too strong this time.
Tipsarevic has been serving pretty effectively during this tournament and I think he is enjoying the faster conditions that seem to be in operation at the moment. He has also played on this court before in the event and should be used to his surroundings unlike Youzhny who has been placed off the show courts.
The Russian is still a tough prospect and has moved through the draw without any real worries so far, but this is a marked rise in quality of opponent and Youzhny has also had an issue in protecting his own serve so far this season.
It wouldn't be a massive surprise if the match did indeed go into four sets, but I do like Tipsarevic coming through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-4.
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets v Nicolas Almagro: My big concern about this match is the fact that Nicolas Almagro has a 3-0 head to head record against Richard Gasquet and I know the Frenchman can sometimes find it tough to escape the mental aspect of matches.
However, I think Gasquet is definitely the better grass court player of the two and I think he will eventually be able to show that off.
Both have been effective behind serve for much of the tournament so far, but it is Almagro who has been forced to spend more time on the court and that can come back to haunt a player especially if they are to fall behind in the match.
The players are likely to be showing off two of the best backhands on the court (expect the commentators to cream over that fact at least ten times during the course of the match), but Gasquet is a former Semi Finalist here and I think the grass court pedigree he has will be the difference.
This is possibly going to four sets, but I will look for Gasquet to be the player making his way into the Fourth Round on Monday.
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games v Sloane Stephens: This is a fascinating match, but it is one that I think Sabine Lisicki can come through.
Sloane Stephens is an up and coming player on the WTA Tour, but the young American doesn't have the same grass court pedigree as the German who reached the Semi Final here last season and that may just make the difference in this one.
Stephens has performed well this season as she looks to get up the Rankings, but I think she has come up a little short against some of the better players and Lisicki, on a grass court, does fall into that category as far as I am concerned.
Some may be concerned that Lisicki had to win a long third set to get to this match, but take a look at what she did last year- Lisicki had to come from a set behind to win 8-6 in the third against Na Li and then went on and comfortably won her Third Round match.
I don't expect it to be that easy, but a 6-4, 6-4 win for Lisicki would not be a big surprise.
Shuai Peng - 2.5 games v Arantxa Rus: I am going for the occasion to be a little too much for Arantxa Rus in this one having caused one of the surprises of the tournaments when she beat Samantha Stosur in three sets.
Shuai Peng is a decent grass court player, reaching the Fourth Round here last season, and I think the Chinese player can be a little too consistent for Rus in this one.
It wouldn't be the first time that a player causing a surprise is then beaten in the next match they play, while Rus has not really had a deep run in any of the grass court tournaments she has previously played.
The lefty serve may cause Peng a few early problems in all honesty, but I think she can get in front once she has the hang of that and come through possibly 4-6, 6-3, 6-4.
MY PICKS: Janko Tipsarevic - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 1.5 sets @ 1.85 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 2.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Shuai Peng - 2.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Wimbledon Update: 9-7, + 5.72 Units (31 Units Staked)
Saturday, 23 June 2012
Tennis Recap June 18-24
The final grass court tournaments before Wimbledon have been completed and now it is all eyes on the third Grand Slam of the season.
I will have a full preview of the tournament out shortly, but I think it is one of the best draws in the Men's draw that I have seen for some time with lots of intriguing matches coming up and plenty of threats for the big four players to be worrying about in the coming two weeks. Let's hope for some great weather and great tennis moving forward.
It wasn't a good week at all for the picks as players either tanked at the wrong time, or were just not capable of producing what I expected on the day... Suffice to say it is the worst week I had this season, but I would rather get that out of the way now and hope for a strong Wimbledon than have a terrible Grand Slam.
What does Andy Roddick's win at Eastbourne mean? I have read in a few places that people are once again considering the American as a credible outsider that could win Wimbledon because he won the event at Eastbourne, but anyone who saw him play will know Andy Roddick is far removed from the player that last reached the Final at SW19 back in 2009.
These wins were actually the first he had since March, and I think the fact he dropped a set against Fabio Fognini while not being as effective behind serve suggests he will not go too far at Wimbledon. His draw is not the kindest as I think he is in the toughest Quarter and I will be more than a little surprised if he is still around come the middle of the second week.
It was a good win for his confidence, but Roddick is not the same player he was and I don't put too much faith into what he managed to achieve at Eastbourne.
How much should someone take into account the form at exhibition tournaments? This has really come about due to the two defeats suffered by Andy Murray at the exhibition event held at Stoke Park in Buckinghamshire over the last week, but I don't think it is as big an issue as some would like to believe.
How many readers know there are big exhibition tournaments before the Australian Open and the French Open too? How many would be surprised that the likes of Roger Federer have played in such events and actually performed better at the Grand Slam event they are preparing for?
That's all this is- it is players trying out a couple of things and just getting the feel of the grass underneath their feet as they get ready to start their Wimbledon challenge.
Those two defeats to Janko Tipsarevic and Novak Djokovic would not worry me in the slightest- the draw Murray has received at Wimbledon is a different matter though!
The Boodles exhibition tournament: I was fortunate enough to attend The Boodles event held at Stoke Park this year and it truly was an enjoyable event and one that I will definitely be adding to my calender in the coming years.
Having been to Queens for many years now, I wasn't sure there was a venue where we could get easier access to the top players in the game, but that was the case at Stoke Park where the players are happy to walk through public access areas and also very happy to pose for a photo and sign an autograph.
The court itself is in a very intimate setting and it is clearly enjoyable for the tennis players too who do have some fun (another reason I wouldn't be overly concerned by a couple of defeats for Andy Murray).
If you ever get a chance, I would recommend attending highly!
Weekly Final: - 10 Units (18 Units Staked)
Season 2012 Update: + 51.74 Units (528 Units Staked, 9.80% yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
I will have a full preview of the tournament out shortly, but I think it is one of the best draws in the Men's draw that I have seen for some time with lots of intriguing matches coming up and plenty of threats for the big four players to be worrying about in the coming two weeks. Let's hope for some great weather and great tennis moving forward.
It wasn't a good week at all for the picks as players either tanked at the wrong time, or were just not capable of producing what I expected on the day... Suffice to say it is the worst week I had this season, but I would rather get that out of the way now and hope for a strong Wimbledon than have a terrible Grand Slam.
What does Andy Roddick's win at Eastbourne mean? I have read in a few places that people are once again considering the American as a credible outsider that could win Wimbledon because he won the event at Eastbourne, but anyone who saw him play will know Andy Roddick is far removed from the player that last reached the Final at SW19 back in 2009.
These wins were actually the first he had since March, and I think the fact he dropped a set against Fabio Fognini while not being as effective behind serve suggests he will not go too far at Wimbledon. His draw is not the kindest as I think he is in the toughest Quarter and I will be more than a little surprised if he is still around come the middle of the second week.
It was a good win for his confidence, but Roddick is not the same player he was and I don't put too much faith into what he managed to achieve at Eastbourne.
How much should someone take into account the form at exhibition tournaments? This has really come about due to the two defeats suffered by Andy Murray at the exhibition event held at Stoke Park in Buckinghamshire over the last week, but I don't think it is as big an issue as some would like to believe.
How many readers know there are big exhibition tournaments before the Australian Open and the French Open too? How many would be surprised that the likes of Roger Federer have played in such events and actually performed better at the Grand Slam event they are preparing for?
That's all this is- it is players trying out a couple of things and just getting the feel of the grass underneath their feet as they get ready to start their Wimbledon challenge.
Those two defeats to Janko Tipsarevic and Novak Djokovic would not worry me in the slightest- the draw Murray has received at Wimbledon is a different matter though!
The Boodles exhibition tournament: I was fortunate enough to attend The Boodles event held at Stoke Park this year and it truly was an enjoyable event and one that I will definitely be adding to my calender in the coming years.
Having been to Queens for many years now, I wasn't sure there was a venue where we could get easier access to the top players in the game, but that was the case at Stoke Park where the players are happy to walk through public access areas and also very happy to pose for a photo and sign an autograph.
The court itself is in a very intimate setting and it is clearly enjoyable for the tennis players too who do have some fun (another reason I wouldn't be overly concerned by a couple of defeats for Andy Murray).
If you ever get a chance, I would recommend attending highly!
Weekly Final: - 10 Units (18 Units Staked)
Season 2012 Update: + 51.74 Units (528 Units Staked, 9.80% yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Monday, 18 June 2012
Tennis Recap (June 11-17)
Another week has gone by on the Tour and we are now just seven days from the start of the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon. That means we have the last of the grass court events starting this week before Wimbledon and most of the top players will be playing exhibition events rather than proper tournaments.
It was a controversial end to the tournament at Queens this week and where else can I start?!
David Nalbandian is disqualified in the Final at Queens: I haven't seen anything like what happened on Sunday as David Nalbandian was forced to default the Final at Queens even though he was leading 1-0 in sets and was a break down in the second set.
I am sure most of you would have seen the incident when Nalbandian kicked the sponsors panel that shattered and ended up cutting a line judge's leg- it was a really unfortunate incident, but I can't excuse it and there could really have only been one way that match was going to go as soon as he did what he did.
I do think it was out of order to get Nalbandian to have an immediate interview on court where the questions were too much when someone is still in an emotional state. All they had to do was to get Nalbandian to apologise and move on rather than pushing for him to answer questions- how many of us would be in a position to speak at such an emotional juncture?
I am glad to see that Nalbandian has since released a couple of statements showing how apologetic he is about the whole situation, while he was the same in the press interview afterwards when he was a little calmer.
It is already a shame that Nalbandian will lose his prize money and his ranking points from the event, points that would have seen him likely seeded for Wimbledon.
I don't agree with the numpties who are 'demanding' that he serves a suspension as I think the fact is he has come to Queens and basically played while losing money all week with no prize money or ranking points gained- that is enough punishment, as well as the shame in losing a Final in the manner he did, so the idea that he should be suspended is beyond laughable.
The kick was a mistake and he didn't intend to hit the line judge, so I think the punishment is already complete.
I was fortunate enough to meet Nalbandian this week and have a quick chat with him- he was friendly, happy to sign my ticket and also to have a photo taken and all this was around an hour before he was due on court so I wasn't disappointed in meeting my favourite player of the last ten years- it's a shame that he couldn't get his name on the winners board, but I hope he does come back in the coming years.
Least now I won't hear the numerous people asking who is at the event(!)
The difference in Roger Federer's and Rafael Nadal's defeats at Halle: I have said for some time that I don't think Roger Federer is at 100% with his health and I expect he will take the time off between Wimbledon and the Olympic games. His defeat in the Final at Halle was disappointing and he has looked a little jaded at times during the week.
I find it very hard to imagine that he can go to Wimbledon and have a real chance of winning the tournament with the way he has been playing since winning in Madrid- he struggled to put away lesser opponents at the French Open and he just hasn't looked right to me in using the eye test.
There will be some out there that are wondering why I have these concerns about Federer and not the same thing when it comes to Rafael Nadal and the answer is pretty simple- Nadal has never really had a strong pedigree in the tournament between the French Open and Wimbledon, unlike Federer.
Nadal has won the tournament at Queens, but 4 of his 5 appearances at that tournament has seen him go out at the Quarter Final stage and he has reached the Final at Wimbledon or won that event soon after.
All Nadal considers at this stage is to get a bit of practice on the grass and he has done that and I have no doubt he will be ready for Wimbledon. The draw will still be important to see whether he can get to the Final and win the event, but that will be analysed at the end of the coming week.
Should we read anything into all the seeds falling at Queens?: It was a strange tournament all around at Queens, culminating in the David Nalbandian situation, but the question is what to read into all the top seeds falling so quickly at the tournament.
Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Roddick and Janko Tipsarevic were all early losers, but I don't think we should read anything into it... Well nothing more than it just being one of those tournaments where it happens from time to time.
Murray and Tipsarevic will be going on to The Boodles this week to play some exhibition matches to get up to speed on the grass, while Andy Roddick is playing down in Eastbourne although he has been given a tough draw against Sam Querrey, but the biggest news may be about Tsonga.
Will Jo-Wilfried Tsonga make it to Wimbledon?: This was the biggest news (before the David Nalbandian situation) coming out of Queens as far as I was concerned as the Frenchman has potentially broken a finger and could be forced to miss Wimbledon.
This will be a big shame for the event, especially after Tsonga's performance at the French Open which had seemed to have filled him with confidence for the grass court season.
Outside of the top four players in the World, I thought Tsonga had the best chance to really have an impact at Wimbledon so I am looking forward to hearing what has happened to his finger and whether he is going to be missing.
The suggestions are that he will be fine and will be in the field next Monday, but I think I will keep an eye on him and see if he takes part in any exhibition matches.
If fully fit and ready to go, Tsonga could really make people sit up and take notice in the coming weeks with Wimbledon and the Olympic games both taking place on the grass he loves playing on.
Weekly Final: + 3.76 Units (18 Units Staked)
Season 2012 Update: + 61.74 Units (510 Units Staked, 12.11% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
It was a controversial end to the tournament at Queens this week and where else can I start?!
David Nalbandian is disqualified in the Final at Queens: I haven't seen anything like what happened on Sunday as David Nalbandian was forced to default the Final at Queens even though he was leading 1-0 in sets and was a break down in the second set.
I am sure most of you would have seen the incident when Nalbandian kicked the sponsors panel that shattered and ended up cutting a line judge's leg- it was a really unfortunate incident, but I can't excuse it and there could really have only been one way that match was going to go as soon as he did what he did.
I do think it was out of order to get Nalbandian to have an immediate interview on court where the questions were too much when someone is still in an emotional state. All they had to do was to get Nalbandian to apologise and move on rather than pushing for him to answer questions- how many of us would be in a position to speak at such an emotional juncture?
I am glad to see that Nalbandian has since released a couple of statements showing how apologetic he is about the whole situation, while he was the same in the press interview afterwards when he was a little calmer.
It is already a shame that Nalbandian will lose his prize money and his ranking points from the event, points that would have seen him likely seeded for Wimbledon.
I don't agree with the numpties who are 'demanding' that he serves a suspension as I think the fact is he has come to Queens and basically played while losing money all week with no prize money or ranking points gained- that is enough punishment, as well as the shame in losing a Final in the manner he did, so the idea that he should be suspended is beyond laughable.
The kick was a mistake and he didn't intend to hit the line judge, so I think the punishment is already complete.
I was fortunate enough to meet Nalbandian this week and have a quick chat with him- he was friendly, happy to sign my ticket and also to have a photo taken and all this was around an hour before he was due on court so I wasn't disappointed in meeting my favourite player of the last ten years- it's a shame that he couldn't get his name on the winners board, but I hope he does come back in the coming years.
Least now I won't hear the numerous people asking who is at the event(!)
The difference in Roger Federer's and Rafael Nadal's defeats at Halle: I have said for some time that I don't think Roger Federer is at 100% with his health and I expect he will take the time off between Wimbledon and the Olympic games. His defeat in the Final at Halle was disappointing and he has looked a little jaded at times during the week.
I find it very hard to imagine that he can go to Wimbledon and have a real chance of winning the tournament with the way he has been playing since winning in Madrid- he struggled to put away lesser opponents at the French Open and he just hasn't looked right to me in using the eye test.
There will be some out there that are wondering why I have these concerns about Federer and not the same thing when it comes to Rafael Nadal and the answer is pretty simple- Nadal has never really had a strong pedigree in the tournament between the French Open and Wimbledon, unlike Federer.
Nadal has won the tournament at Queens, but 4 of his 5 appearances at that tournament has seen him go out at the Quarter Final stage and he has reached the Final at Wimbledon or won that event soon after.
All Nadal considers at this stage is to get a bit of practice on the grass and he has done that and I have no doubt he will be ready for Wimbledon. The draw will still be important to see whether he can get to the Final and win the event, but that will be analysed at the end of the coming week.
Should we read anything into all the seeds falling at Queens?: It was a strange tournament all around at Queens, culminating in the David Nalbandian situation, but the question is what to read into all the top seeds falling so quickly at the tournament.
Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Roddick and Janko Tipsarevic were all early losers, but I don't think we should read anything into it... Well nothing more than it just being one of those tournaments where it happens from time to time.
Murray and Tipsarevic will be going on to The Boodles this week to play some exhibition matches to get up to speed on the grass, while Andy Roddick is playing down in Eastbourne although he has been given a tough draw against Sam Querrey, but the biggest news may be about Tsonga.
Will Jo-Wilfried Tsonga make it to Wimbledon?: This was the biggest news (before the David Nalbandian situation) coming out of Queens as far as I was concerned as the Frenchman has potentially broken a finger and could be forced to miss Wimbledon.
This will be a big shame for the event, especially after Tsonga's performance at the French Open which had seemed to have filled him with confidence for the grass court season.
Outside of the top four players in the World, I thought Tsonga had the best chance to really have an impact at Wimbledon so I am looking forward to hearing what has happened to his finger and whether he is going to be missing.
The suggestions are that he will be fine and will be in the field next Monday, but I think I will keep an eye on him and see if he takes part in any exhibition matches.
If fully fit and ready to go, Tsonga could really make people sit up and take notice in the coming weeks with Wimbledon and the Olympic games both taking place on the grass he loves playing on.
Weekly Final: + 3.76 Units (18 Units Staked)
Season 2012 Update: + 61.74 Units (510 Units Staked, 12.11% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Monday, 21 May 2012
Tennis Recap (May 13-20, Rome)
It was a horrible week in terms of picking daily winners, but the outright market proved very profitable with both Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal winning the Women's and Men's events respectively.
This is the last real important tournament before the French Open which begins next Monday, although we do have events in France and Germany this week. The problem with those events is the motivation of the top seeded players that may want to reserve some gas for the first week of the Grand Slam next week.
Anyway, below is just a few thoughts from the Rome event that was concluded today:
Rafael Nadal back up to World Number 2: I think Roger Federer would have been secretly hoping that Novak Djokovic could have won this event as soon as he was beaten in the Semi Finals to the Serbian.
Rafael Nadal's win in Rome means they have moved up to World Number 2 and that means, once again, that Roger Federer is likely going to have to beat the two best players in the World if he wants to win the French Open for a second time.
By moving up to Number 2, Federer can at least think he has a 50-50 chance of avoiding Rafael Nadal in his draw and know he could take his chances if Nadal and Djokovic were involved in an epic Semi Final, and those little things can make the difference when winning a Grand Slam or not.
It looks unlikely that Federer can get the Number 2 position back before Wimbledon, something I think he was looking for, unless there is a serious surprise at Roland Garros.
Andy Murray's back injury: Andy Murray exited the tournament in Rome with little fuss against Richard Gasquet and subsequently told the journalists at his press conference that he is suffering with a back injury that has been niggling him since December.
This doesn't bode well for him in an important year with the French Open, Wimbledon and the Olympics all coming up in quick succession and the US Open to follow. Murray has always made the first few rounds of a Grand Slam event much more difficult than they need to be and this back injury is only going to hinder his chances even more if he is as uncomfortable as he suggested.
He will always need a nice draw, a bit of luck and the nerve at crucial times if he is going to win a Grand Slam, but an injury is not going to help his cause and I just can't see a breakthrough coming for him this season.
I've changed my mind, Serena Williams is the player to beat at Roland Garros: Last week, I said that Serena Williams was a little short as the favourite to win in Paris this season as the conditions in Madrid helped her win that tournament.
However, she looked imperious this week in Rome and was cruising through her matches and was only prevented from winning the tournament because she had to pull out with an injury. Williams has since said it was a precautionary pull-out and she expects to be fully ready for Paris.
With Victoria Azarenka's participation in Paris in doubt, the only player I would even consider backing to beat Serena Williams is Maria Sharapova, but if the American gets the right kind of draw, I can't look beyond her.
Williams has looked motivated and focused on what has been her worst surface to play on... Pencil her name in for Wimbledon if she stays healthy, especially with the form she has shown in the last month.
The Men's event is not much more open than the Women's: You get these big articles ahead of the Grand Slams that seems to list up to 8 Men that can possibly win the event and, while I don't agree it ever gets to that many, you can understand the excitement about these Slams.
The French Open doesn't exactly inspire me the same way to be honest as I can't look beyond the top two players in the World as to who will win this event.
The likes of Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray could possibly throw a spanner in the works, but I would almost certainly think the player they trouble is Novak Djokovic rather than Rafael Nadal.
I would heavily favour Nadal against any of the four players listed on a clay court, and I think he has proven that he has the better of Djokovic on the surface after reversing his surprise losses to the Serbian last season including here at Rome.
One year ago, Nadal was a short odds against shot to win the French Open, but there is no chance of getting anything like that this year. Already, I do favour Nadal to take this tournament unless he gets a gruesome draw and even then I would just hope that his price comes out rather than expecting him to lose.
Weekly Update: 9-12, - 6.32 Units (41 Units Staked)
Outright Update: 2-1, + 8.75 Units (8 Units Staked)
Season Update: + 36.51 Units (403 Units Staked, 9.06% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
This is the last real important tournament before the French Open which begins next Monday, although we do have events in France and Germany this week. The problem with those events is the motivation of the top seeded players that may want to reserve some gas for the first week of the Grand Slam next week.
Anyway, below is just a few thoughts from the Rome event that was concluded today:
Rafael Nadal back up to World Number 2: I think Roger Federer would have been secretly hoping that Novak Djokovic could have won this event as soon as he was beaten in the Semi Finals to the Serbian.
Rafael Nadal's win in Rome means they have moved up to World Number 2 and that means, once again, that Roger Federer is likely going to have to beat the two best players in the World if he wants to win the French Open for a second time.
By moving up to Number 2, Federer can at least think he has a 50-50 chance of avoiding Rafael Nadal in his draw and know he could take his chances if Nadal and Djokovic were involved in an epic Semi Final, and those little things can make the difference when winning a Grand Slam or not.
It looks unlikely that Federer can get the Number 2 position back before Wimbledon, something I think he was looking for, unless there is a serious surprise at Roland Garros.
Andy Murray's back injury: Andy Murray exited the tournament in Rome with little fuss against Richard Gasquet and subsequently told the journalists at his press conference that he is suffering with a back injury that has been niggling him since December.
This doesn't bode well for him in an important year with the French Open, Wimbledon and the Olympics all coming up in quick succession and the US Open to follow. Murray has always made the first few rounds of a Grand Slam event much more difficult than they need to be and this back injury is only going to hinder his chances even more if he is as uncomfortable as he suggested.
He will always need a nice draw, a bit of luck and the nerve at crucial times if he is going to win a Grand Slam, but an injury is not going to help his cause and I just can't see a breakthrough coming for him this season.
I've changed my mind, Serena Williams is the player to beat at Roland Garros: Last week, I said that Serena Williams was a little short as the favourite to win in Paris this season as the conditions in Madrid helped her win that tournament.
However, she looked imperious this week in Rome and was cruising through her matches and was only prevented from winning the tournament because she had to pull out with an injury. Williams has since said it was a precautionary pull-out and she expects to be fully ready for Paris.
With Victoria Azarenka's participation in Paris in doubt, the only player I would even consider backing to beat Serena Williams is Maria Sharapova, but if the American gets the right kind of draw, I can't look beyond her.
Williams has looked motivated and focused on what has been her worst surface to play on... Pencil her name in for Wimbledon if she stays healthy, especially with the form she has shown in the last month.
The Men's event is not much more open than the Women's: You get these big articles ahead of the Grand Slams that seems to list up to 8 Men that can possibly win the event and, while I don't agree it ever gets to that many, you can understand the excitement about these Slams.
The French Open doesn't exactly inspire me the same way to be honest as I can't look beyond the top two players in the World as to who will win this event.
The likes of Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray could possibly throw a spanner in the works, but I would almost certainly think the player they trouble is Novak Djokovic rather than Rafael Nadal.
I would heavily favour Nadal against any of the four players listed on a clay court, and I think he has proven that he has the better of Djokovic on the surface after reversing his surprise losses to the Serbian last season including here at Rome.
One year ago, Nadal was a short odds against shot to win the French Open, but there is no chance of getting anything like that this year. Already, I do favour Nadal to take this tournament unless he gets a gruesome draw and even then I would just hope that his price comes out rather than expecting him to lose.
Weekly Update: 9-12, - 6.32 Units (41 Units Staked)
Outright Update: 2-1, + 8.75 Units (8 Units Staked)
Season Update: + 36.51 Units (403 Units Staked, 9.06% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Thursday, 26 January 2012
Australian Open Day 12 Pick- Djokovic v Murray
Yesterday we picked all 3 underdogs to win their matches and we had a good day as two of those managed to get through.
I was stunned with the lack of respect that was given to Rafael Nadal and his chances of winning his match with Federer, not just by the layers but by the so called 'experts'... I was not concerned at all that he would Federer all the way in the match as he has the game plan that is tough for the Swiss player to deal with and we saw that again yesterday.
The one handed backhand used by Federer just does not do enough damage on a consistent basis, while Rafael Nadal was too quick and physically strong as he began to grind Federer down.
In the Women's draw, I am very happy to see the Final between Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova as both are deserving to be in this position and should offer up plenty of entertainment for the crowd.
Even better was the fact that the winner of this Grand Slam will be taking over as the World Number 1 in the Women's game and that should be a fascinating encounter. I am thinking of doing a live blog covering that Final and, IF I enjoy it, I might do the same for the Men's Final on Sunday.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets vs Andy Murray: I have been thinking about this match for much of the day today and I have finally decided that I am going to have a small interest on the World Number 1 going through to his third consecutive Grand Slam Final against Rafael Nadal with a 4 set win.
Andy Murray should feel confident that he can spring a surprise, and I think he will push Djokovic here, but I still think his serve needs some work to find the consistency of getting up to 65% of first serves in play... The second serve remains a liability that can be exposed, especially by the very best players in the World like Djokovic.
I expect Murray's link up with Ivan Lendl will work, but it is still early in their relationship and I have a feeling Murray could resort to his former tactics IF he falls behind in this match... Those tactics have not really helped him in the past in best of 5 set matches in the latter stages of tournaments and I have a feeling he will fall short here.
There were some doubts about the fitness of Djokovic as he was beginning to really struggle against David Ferrer in the last Round, but he looked very strong in the third set so I don't think there are going to be too many physical issues for him to overcome here.
I think the World Number 1 will be a little too consistent and aggressive for Murray here and will pull away after splitting the first two sets. Murray was beaten in 4 sets in his last two Grand Slam losses, both to Rafael Nadal, and I think he can take a set from previous experiences of playing Djokovic.
However, I think the Serbian will get through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Update: 20-14, + 15.76 Units
I was stunned with the lack of respect that was given to Rafael Nadal and his chances of winning his match with Federer, not just by the layers but by the so called 'experts'... I was not concerned at all that he would Federer all the way in the match as he has the game plan that is tough for the Swiss player to deal with and we saw that again yesterday.
The one handed backhand used by Federer just does not do enough damage on a consistent basis, while Rafael Nadal was too quick and physically strong as he began to grind Federer down.
In the Women's draw, I am very happy to see the Final between Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova as both are deserving to be in this position and should offer up plenty of entertainment for the crowd.
Even better was the fact that the winner of this Grand Slam will be taking over as the World Number 1 in the Women's game and that should be a fascinating encounter. I am thinking of doing a live blog covering that Final and, IF I enjoy it, I might do the same for the Men's Final on Sunday.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets vs Andy Murray: I have been thinking about this match for much of the day today and I have finally decided that I am going to have a small interest on the World Number 1 going through to his third consecutive Grand Slam Final against Rafael Nadal with a 4 set win.
Andy Murray should feel confident that he can spring a surprise, and I think he will push Djokovic here, but I still think his serve needs some work to find the consistency of getting up to 65% of first serves in play... The second serve remains a liability that can be exposed, especially by the very best players in the World like Djokovic.
I expect Murray's link up with Ivan Lendl will work, but it is still early in their relationship and I have a feeling Murray could resort to his former tactics IF he falls behind in this match... Those tactics have not really helped him in the past in best of 5 set matches in the latter stages of tournaments and I have a feeling he will fall short here.
There were some doubts about the fitness of Djokovic as he was beginning to really struggle against David Ferrer in the last Round, but he looked very strong in the third set so I don't think there are going to be too many physical issues for him to overcome here.
I think the World Number 1 will be a little too consistent and aggressive for Murray here and will pull away after splitting the first two sets. Murray was beaten in 4 sets in his last two Grand Slam losses, both to Rafael Nadal, and I think he can take a set from previous experiences of playing Djokovic.
However, I think the Serbian will get through 6-3, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 in sets @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Update: 20-14, + 15.76 Units
Saturday, 10 September 2011
US Open Day 13 Super Saturday Picks
I am going to let my picks on Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Serena Williams run tonight as I have them all in the outright markets and feel at least 2 will win.
It will be a fantastic day of tennis IF the weather can stay away.
With all the College Football, English football and NFL Picks being made too, I don't think it's the time to double dip in the tennis.
The US Open update for profit/loss will be up tomorrow
It will be a fantastic day of tennis IF the weather can stay away.
With all the College Football, English football and NFL Picks being made too, I don't think it's the time to double dip in the tennis.
The US Open update for profit/loss will be up tomorrow
Friday, 9 September 2011
US Open Day 12 Picks (Men's Quarter Finals)
The schedule has been changed by the organisers of the tournament in a manner they feel will best give all the remaining competitors a chance to win the prize.
The bottom half of the Men's draw is playing catch up, and it will still mean playing 3 matches in 3 days if they are to get through to the Final, which has been moved until Monday.
While the schedule change looks reasonable, they have given their sponsors and TV companies a Super Super Saturday as all 4 Semi Finals are scheduled to go on one after the other.
The two Men's Semi Finals take place in the afternoon and the Women have been given the night session to themselves, although personally I would have had the matches start at noon with the Women on first followed by one Men's match and then the last Semi Final played not before 7pm for a night game.
The Women's Final takes place on Sunday and the Men's, as I mentioned, is moved to Monday.
On to the Picks for the final two Quarter Finals:
Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs John Isner: This looks like a dangerous pick considering the way John Isner can serve, but I have a feeling the big man is just about running on fumes and he will be grinded down by Murray and put away in a similar fashion to Australia in 2010.
Isner was struggling against Gilles Simon yesterday, being broken NINE times, and will little rest between matches, I think he is going to struggle big time against a player that will force him to hit a lot of tennis balls.
Murray is also one of the best returners on the tour so we can expect him to start getting a lot of serves back and I think he will then be able to expose the lack of real movement in Isner and come away with a fairly routine win.
Murray has won his 2 previous meetings with Isner, winning all 5 sets- he beat Isner for the loss of just 11 games in Australia in 2010 and also won 6-4, 6-2 at the Hopman Cup earlier this season against the big serving American.
The British Number 1 will not want to spend unnecessary time on court so I expect him to be fully focused. He will break Isner's belief in a tight first set, before coming away with a 7-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.
Rafael Nadal to win 3-1 in sets vs Andy Roddick: Andy Roddick played very well in the sets I saw against David Ferrer yesterday, but this is an altogether different test for a player that has not been in the best of form this season.
Rafael Nadal is clearly keen to keep his time on court to a minimum if his performance in destroying Gilles Muller yesterday is anything to go by. However, he has thrown in a few erratic service games and that may be enough for Roddick to sneak a set, although I can't see him having any more success than that.
Nadal leads 6-3 in the head to head, and has won 4 of the last 5 meetings. However, they have split their last 2 meetings in Miami and at the O2 in London, with both matches going the full distance.
The Spaniard has been fortunate not to drop a set so far at this years US Open, with Gilles Muller, David Nalbandian and Andrey Golubev all having chances to do so. I think Roddick's mental belief will allow him to break that run, but I can't see him going any further as he falls 6-4, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 26-16, + 27.03 Units
The bottom half of the Men's draw is playing catch up, and it will still mean playing 3 matches in 3 days if they are to get through to the Final, which has been moved until Monday.
While the schedule change looks reasonable, they have given their sponsors and TV companies a Super Super Saturday as all 4 Semi Finals are scheduled to go on one after the other.
The two Men's Semi Finals take place in the afternoon and the Women have been given the night session to themselves, although personally I would have had the matches start at noon with the Women on first followed by one Men's match and then the last Semi Final played not before 7pm for a night game.
The Women's Final takes place on Sunday and the Men's, as I mentioned, is moved to Monday.
On to the Picks for the final two Quarter Finals:
Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs John Isner: This looks like a dangerous pick considering the way John Isner can serve, but I have a feeling the big man is just about running on fumes and he will be grinded down by Murray and put away in a similar fashion to Australia in 2010.
Isner was struggling against Gilles Simon yesterday, being broken NINE times, and will little rest between matches, I think he is going to struggle big time against a player that will force him to hit a lot of tennis balls.
Murray is also one of the best returners on the tour so we can expect him to start getting a lot of serves back and I think he will then be able to expose the lack of real movement in Isner and come away with a fairly routine win.
Murray has won his 2 previous meetings with Isner, winning all 5 sets- he beat Isner for the loss of just 11 games in Australia in 2010 and also won 6-4, 6-2 at the Hopman Cup earlier this season against the big serving American.
The British Number 1 will not want to spend unnecessary time on court so I expect him to be fully focused. He will break Isner's belief in a tight first set, before coming away with a 7-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.
Rafael Nadal to win 3-1 in sets vs Andy Roddick: Andy Roddick played very well in the sets I saw against David Ferrer yesterday, but this is an altogether different test for a player that has not been in the best of form this season.
Rafael Nadal is clearly keen to keep his time on court to a minimum if his performance in destroying Gilles Muller yesterday is anything to go by. However, he has thrown in a few erratic service games and that may be enough for Roddick to sneak a set, although I can't see him having any more success than that.
Nadal leads 6-3 in the head to head, and has won 4 of the last 5 meetings. However, they have split their last 2 meetings in Miami and at the O2 in London, with both matches going the full distance.
The Spaniard has been fortunate not to drop a set so far at this years US Open, with Gilles Muller, David Nalbandian and Andrey Golubev all having chances to do so. I think Roddick's mental belief will allow him to break that run, but I can't see him going any further as he falls 6-4, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
US OPEN UPDATE: 26-16, + 27.03 Units
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