Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (July 8-14)

After two weeks of strange results and fascinating tennis, Wimbledon came to a close on Sunday with a couple of new Champions in both the Men's and Women's tournaments.

Britain finally got the monkey off their back by seeing a homegrown male tennis player win the title for the first time in 77 years as Andy Murray won in straight sets against the World Number 1 player Novak Djokovic. It was a very solid performance from Murray, but supporters of the Serb will point to the fact that their man had a 4-1 lead in the second set and a 4-2 lead in the third set but was unable to convert those chances into sets.

It also means Andy Murray holds two of the four Grand Slam titles and has reached the Final in the last four Grand Slam tournaments he has entered since the French Open 2012. He will surely feel totally relaxed of his own ability going forward and I would fully expect Murray to have at least double the Grand Slams he currently holds when he retires from the game. It is also possible that he could even improve on the four Grand Slams I am projecting, but the more immediate goal for him may just be to hold the World Number 1 Ranking at some point.

It is unlikely to happen this year barring Djokovic really dropping some form, although Murray can close the gap in time for next season... The first chance may be after the Australian Open for Murray to get to the World Number 1 Ranking, although he does have the US Open title points to defend before then.

However, Murray didn't play at the French Open this year and doesn't have a lot of points to defend during the clay court season next time around so keeping close to Djokovic up to that point could very much give Murray the chance to come into Wimbledon next year as the defending Champion and World Number 1.


The early exits for Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have had some writers preparing obituaries for both of those players, although it seems many have short memories after Nadal's performances in winning the French Open just a month ago. You certainly fear for the knees when it comes to the Spaniard after it looked like he was struggling at Wimbledon, but I don't expect a seven month layoff this time around and I do expect Nadal to take to the North American hard courts in the coming months in preparation for the US Open.

The hard courts are certainly not the favourite surface of Nadal, but he is capable of performing on it with wins at the US Open and Australian Open in the past and I wouldn't be that surprised if he finishes the year as the World Number 2 assuming he will take part during the rest of the season.

Personally I would have more concern for whether Roger Federer can get back to the top of the Men's game after his surprise exit here. It isn't just that result, but the whole of 2013 has been tough for the former World Number 1 and just one title as we enter July is a concern. He also looks more vulnerable than he has in the last ten years and I certainly believe more players on the Tour feel they can beat Federer if they implement their own game and are less worries about what the Swiss man brings.

Federer himself has to be concerned by the fact he has dropped out of the top four in the Rankings as that makes any path to another Grand Slam that much more dangerous. It was a surprise to see him enter tournaments in Hamburg and Gstaad in July, but Federer must be looking for a confidence boost as well as Ranking points that could see him reach New York as the 4th seed rather than the 5th.


Marion Bartoli won the Women's tournament in a real surprise outcome, but she played solid tennis throughout the two weeks and took advantage of the early exits for Victoria Azarenka, Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams. Bartoli isn't the player you would study to improve technique, but it clearly works for her and she was a deserved winner in the Final after Sabine Lisicki lost control of her emotions.

The Frenchwoman has spoken about adding to her Grand Slam haul, but I think this is going to be a one-Slam player, but that is one more Slam than a lot of people will win.


The tournament was also a strong one for the picks as you will see from the records below. With Andy Murray winning, a lot of the layers returned outright picks made so that helped, and it was a positive two weeks as most of the real surprise results were missed.


While a lot of people may think the Tour has come to a close for 11 months, us tennis fans will know that it merely moves on to the next stop as we have events in Bastad, Stuttgart and Newport this week. The first two are played on the clay courts as we have a small swing back on the dirt over the next month, while Newport provides the last grass tournament of the season. The WTA Tour moves on to Budapest and Palermo and while most of the big names in both Tours are not going to be playing this week, that doesn't mean there won't be some important tennis to be played.

My outright preview and picks for tournaments this week can also be found below.


ATP Bastad
This is a tournament that seems to attract some of the better players on the Tour, even though it comes just a week after Wimbledon is concluded, and I think the top seeded Tomas Berdych won't have too many better chances to break his title duck for 2013.

Berdych is the only player in the top ten that is yet to win a title this year after Roger Federer won the event in Halle ahead of Wimbledon and the Czech player has to win just four matches if he is to win his first title of the year. He hasn't won here before, but Berdych is twice a Finalist at Bastad and he looks in the 'weaker' half of the draw.

He may have a bit of trouble against a potential Semi Final opponent like Tommy Robredo, especially as the veteran Spaniard beat Berdych on the clay courts in Barcelona earlier this season, but that was a close enough match to think the World Number 6 will be able to turn the result around.


Players like Nicolas Almagro, Juan Monaco, Grigor Dimitrov and Fernando Verdasco make up the bottom half of the draw and whoever comes out of that section could be battle hardened for the Final. However, they could also be a little fatigued as there are plenty of tough matches to come through in a short period of time and that is where Berdych may just pick up the scraps.


ATP Stuttgart
Another clay court event going on this week on the ATP Tour is the one at Stuttgart and is headed up by Tommy Haas- the home player is the Number 1 seed and the favourite to win the title, but he is certainly someone that has been happier on the faster surfaces over the years and looks vulnerable at the top of the market.

There are two former winners of this event in the top half of the draw and both Jeremy Chardy and Albert Montanes will feel they can go far, while Haas could also have a very tough opener here as he will face the winner of the Marcel Granollers-Ernests Gulbis First Round match.


Instead, I think it will make sense to look at the bottom half of the draw which is occupied by more German hopes in Philipp Kohlschreiber and Florian Mayer... However, there are plenty of other names that could certainly go far, for example Nikolay Davydenko or Lukas Rosol. In my opinion, Gael Monfils could be the man to back in this side of the draw to reach the Final next Sunday.

Monfils had been in good form over the last six weeks, but pulled out of Wimbledon with a personal problem that needed to be addressed immediately although the Frenchman didn't mention what that was.

He reached the Final in Nice on the clay courts before getting to the Third Round at the French Open where Monfils showed some real form. Monfils will feel he can get the better of the likes of Mayer and Kohlschreiber in this half of the draw and I think he is worth an each-way interest to win the tournament, even though only one of his four career titles have come on the clay courts.

If Monfils can build up some steam, he can certainly continue the form that he had displayed prior to Wimbledon and go deep this week, although he can't always be trusted to play at a consistent level.


ATP Newport
The last grass court tournament of the season is played in Newport as more former players are entered into the Hall of Fame. Even though the grass court season is as short as it is, you won't find too many of the top players at this tournament and is says a lot that outside of the top two seeds, the next highest ranked played is down at 64 in the World Rankings.

With that in mind, the tournament is an open one and two time defending Champion, John Isner, looks an uneasy favourite. For starters, Isner has a fairly tough draw beginning with Ryan Harrison; second, anyone who saw his knee injury that forced him out of Wimbledon wouldn't be surprised if the American isn't exactly good to go here.

Other players like Ivo Karlovic, Edouard Roger-Vasselin, James Blake and Adrian Mannarino will all look to take advantage of the Isner issues, if there are any, but the biggest beneficiary could be the Runner Up from last year, Lleyton Hewitt.

Hewitt reached the Semi Final at Queens last month, but was a surprise Second Loser at Wimbledon when he went down to Dustin Brown. The Australian should be good enough to reach the Semi Finals from his section of the draw, particularly if he brings his form from Queens into the tournament.


The other half of the draw could see the Finalist come from a potential Second Round meeting between Nicolas Mahut and Sam Querrey, but that is a tough match to split and I will stick with the veteran Hewitt as my pick from this tournament.


OUTRIGHT PICKS: Tomas Berdych @ 2.80 UniBet (2 Units)
Gael Monfils @ 15.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit E/W)
Lleyton Hewitt @ 6.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)


Wimbledon Daily Picks: 22-17, + 13.02 Units (73 Units Staked, + 17.84% Yield)
Wimbledon Outright Picks: 0-5, - 4.5 Units (4.5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Season 2013: + 22.28 Units (758.5 Units Staked, + 2.94% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Wimbledon Recap 2012 (July 8th)

The third Grand Slam of the season has come and gone and we have crowned two more players as Champions this season. They are both familiar to winning here at SW19 as Roger Federer and Serena Williams became the latest winners of one of the big prizes this season following on from Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova.

Below, I have a few thoughts from the tournament over the last couple of weeks and then I will show the profit/loss from the tournament and the season as a whole.


Roger Federer is once again a Grand Slam Champion: The last time Roger Federer was lifting one of the big prizes in tennis was back at the Australian Open in 2010 and there would have been a lot of people that thought he was unlikely to win another Grand Slam tournament.


However, he has been working hard to get back to the pinnacle of the Men's game and that has seen him perform the most consistently of all the players since the US Open last year, although he still had not really come close to winning a Grand Slam with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal looking a little too strong for him.


Even at this tournament, it did seem that winning the tournament was likely to be beyond him, but his come from behind win over Julien Benneteau proved to be pivotal. Federer also saved his two best performances for the final two matches against Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and that has also seen him reclaim the World Number 1 Ranking.


Federer is set to surpass the record that Pete Sampras had held for most weeks at World Number 1 and that should also leave him in good stead going into the Olympics and the US Open later this season.


It truly is a remarkable achievement to see Federer return to the Number 1 spot, particularly in this era where the depth in the Men's game is so strong and I do think it strengthens his claims to go down as the 'Greatest Player in History'. A lot of people would have ruled him out ever winning another Grand Slam, let alone getting back to Number 1, but it is the mark of the man that he has managed to do so.


I have always thought it would be tough for Federer to go down as the 'Greatest' if Rafa Nadal can reach, say 15 Grand Slams, particularly with the head to head record between the two players, but if Federer can add another couple of Slams to his record, it will be tough to surpass him.


I remember hearing Federer speak about getting to 20 Grand Slams before he retires and you wouldn't want to bet against him considering the desire and belief he has shown to get back to World Number 1... Do I think he will get to 20? I find that tough to believe with Federer reaching 31 years old next month and with the likes of Djokovic and Nadal around.




Is Federer now the favourite to win the Gold medal at the Olympics?: I think the fact the Olympics are going to be played on grass was always going to help Federer more than it hurt him, but I still think Rafael Nadal is the player that could cause problems and should still be the man to beat, along with Novak Djokovic, when it comes to the Gold Medal.


The best news about reaching World Number 1 for Federer is that he doesn't necessarily have to beat both Nadal and Djokovic, as he would have had to at this tournament if the Spaniard had not been beaten early, but the draw is still very important to his chances.


The grass courts are probably the only courts where Federer is less vulnerable to the big hitters, but the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych (who also beat Federer at the Olympics in Athens in 2004) would still think they have a chance of knocking him off, especially in a best of three sets match.


As I said, the draw is very important to decide who should be the favourite, but I still think the two Men immediately below him in the Rankings should be leading the markets.




How will Andy Murray be received by the public following his loss: First things first, I think Andy Murray should be given a lot of credit for reaching the Wimbledon Final and his performance should not be criticised as he really did give his all and came up a little short.


There was a moment in the second set when he missed a couple of balls that he had been dealing with previously and there were some comparisons with his loss to Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final at Wimbledon last year when he had an easy forehand to go a set and a break up on the Spaniard.


While there can't be anything disparaging to be said about Murray's performance, I think the genuine disappointment and tears at the post-match interview on the court will have adhered him to the millions that were watching on TV and I think he will have more sympathy and fans from that.


Murray apologised for Federer as he felt it may have taken away from the Swiss man's victory, but it did show a side of him that many would not have seen before and I think that can only be a good thing for a player that doesn't look the happiest on the court.




Why do so many think Murray does not deserve the support of the home fans?: I have heard from a few people that they wouldn't be backing Andy Murray after what he said about the England team back in 2006.


If you don't know, all Murray said was that he was supporting 'anyone but England' in the football World Cup, but it was a tongue-in-cheek comment that seems to have riled up a lot of English people.


I heard many say they don't like him because of those comments, but I am unashamedly a Murray fan- yes, he can look a little miserable at time, but he seems to have a dry sense of humour that I appreciate and I think he is actually a lot easier to get on with off the court than on it.


Personally, I have never seen the need to 'support' a person based on their nationality when it comes to individual sports as they are doing things for themselves first and foremost- so if someone says they don't like Murray because he looks a miserable bastard, fair enough... But to not like him for a comment made as a teenager looks a little silly as far as I am concerned, especially as I don't think anyone would want to be judged by what they said as teenagers I'm sure.




People should talk about a 'top three' not a 'top four': I have already said I like Andy Murray so I hope this is not read as being too critical of him, but I do think the use of 'big four' should be put on the back-burner by those in the media from now on and until Murray wins a Grand Slam.


The top three players look a level above Murray at the moment and I think there is actually a smaller gap between him and David Ferrer at Number 5 than there is between Murray and Rafa Nadal at Number 3.


We have to appreciate all the success Murray has had already in his career, but I just think it is doing the Djokovic, Federer and Nadal's of this World a disservice by not placing them head and shoulders above the rest in the Men's field.


IF Murray can win a Grand Slam, he would at least be in the same kind of conversation as the three players above him, especially as it could lead to further success at Slam level, but this term 'big four' has to be retired until Murray does win one.




Serena Williams is back on her throne: All the talk pre-Wimbledon was about the huge achievements that Maria Sharapova had made by winning just her fourth Grand Slam, albeit completing a career Grand Slam, but the real Queen of Women's tennis can now say she is back on her throne after winning the title here.


Serena Williams has managed to beat a life-threatening illness and won her first Grand Slam since winning Wimbledon in July 2010, but that win means she has more Wimbledon titles than Sharapova has Grand Slams- that should put it into perspective what kind of achievements Sharapova has and how much they are blown out of proportion compared to her peer in Williams.


It was important for Williams to win this title having fallen far short at the Australian and French Opens this season and also being surprised by Sam Stosur in the Final of the US Open last year.


The win will give Serena the belief that she can go on and really stamp her place in the history of the Women's game with further Grand Slam success and I think there is a vacuum in the Women's tour at the moment to suggest she can go on and dominate.


I think Serena will be the favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal and the US Open and I wouldn't want to bet against her right now with the confidence likely to have reached new heights.




Wimbledon is the latest in successful Grand Slam events: Wimbledon is the latest tournament where the outright picks have been very successful as I once again managed to get both the Men's and Women's Champion in the staking plan.


That means I have been successful in identifying the Winner of both the Men's and Women's events at all three Grand Slams so far.


Anyone who reads the blog with any regularity will know I don't like talking about my successes any more than the failures, but this is one thing I am extremely happy with.




Wimbledon Daily Picks Final: 21-17, + 8.88 Units (72 Units Staked)


Wimbledon Outright Picks Final: + 12.50 Units (9 Units Staked)


Wimbledon 2012 Final: + 21.38 Units (81 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 73.12 Units (609 Units Staked, 12.01% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units