Tennis Outright Picks August 12-19 (Cincinnati)

Last week was probably the worst week I have experience in two years of putting up picks for the tennis on this site as I couldn't catch a cold let alone a break and it has made a heavy dent in the profit/loss column for the 2012 season.

The tennis world moves on quickly so I'll be hoping for a lot more consistency with the picks this week and hope to turnaround the fortunes ahead of the final Grand Slam of the season at the US Open which will be beginning on August 27th.

Below I will update the porous last week and I will also look at the draws for the Cincinnati Masters that will begin today and go on until next Sunday. We do have the top players all back in action this week as it is the last major preparation for them before heading to Flushing Meadows and hopefully the weather won't ruin the week as it has in Canada with double-duty being on the menu for many of the players.

Men's Tournament

The Men's tournament in Cincinnati will still be missing Rafael Nadal this week and that means the first thing we should look for is which of the remaining top four players have been paired with one another.

This week, Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic have been set to meet in the Semi Final, something that should leave the way clear for Roger Federer to make it through to the Final at the least.

Federer missed Toronto last week as he believes he needed a little bit of rest, both physically and emotionally, having invested so much in winning Wimbledon and earning the Silver Medal from the London Olympics.

The World Number 1 has been given a kind opening match in the draw, facing the winner of the Jarkko Nieminen and Alex Bogomolov match, and he can't complain too much about any of the competitors in his half of the draw as he avoids Murray, Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro until the Final at the earliest.

Federer may have been beaten in the Quarter Final last season, but he is a four time winner here in Cincinnati, including in 2009 and 2010, and I don't see him being beaten before the Final with the way he has been playing.

There are a few more question marks about who he would meet in the Final as Novak Djokovic is in the Final in Toronto and may be a little tired having gone deep in the Olympics too, while Andy Murray has a slight issue with his knees and Juan Martin Del Potro may just be the man having had an additional week to rest following his early exit in Toronto.

However, the way Murray has been playing over the last six weeks means I wouldn't favour Del Potro against him so I am just going to stick with Roger Federer to win the title here for the fifth time.

Women's Tournament

There are a couple of really big names missing from this event this week as both Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova have decided to give their bodies a little more rest ahead of the US Open.

The first player that anyone should be looking at anyway is Serena Williams as she is playing the best tennis on the WTA Tour and has won three tournaments in a row (Wimbledon, Stanford and the London Olympic Gold Medal) since her surprise exit in the First Round at the French Open.

With the way Serena is serving, she is the clear favourite to win the US Open as far as I am concerned and this tournament is no different. She will have to beat the likes of Angelique Kerber and Petra Kvitova if she is to reach the Final, but her form has been good enough to think she will do so and she has to be the player to back to win any tournament right now.

The other half of the draw is a little more difficult to break down, but Na Li was showing signs of an improvement in her form by reaching the Final in Montreal last week and she may take advantage of being in the weaker half now that the likes of Azarenka and Sharapova are not in the draw.

Her potential Quarter Final against Agnieska Radwanska may just decide which of the two players reaches the Final this week, but Li has won the two previous meetings between them on a hard court, including a straight sets win last week for the loss of just three games.

However, Serena is hard to ignore and there are too many question marks around the other half of the draw and that makes it impossible to really pick a player from that section.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 3.50 Stan James (3 Units)

Tennis Recap August 6-12 (Montreal and Toronto)

I won't mince my words here... Absolutely awful week as the numbers will show below:

Weekly Final: 4-10, - 12.64 Units (26 Units Staked)

Season 2012: + 46.21 Units (731 Units Staked, 6.32% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

MLB Picks August

There isn't too much time to go before the start of the Barclays Premier League season as well as the College Football and the National Football League, but I will still be making some picks from the Major League Baseball games if there is something that catches my eye.

It has been a mixed bag of a season with one terrible month, one mediocre month, one decent month and one great month so let's hope August brings good fortunes.

August 7th
San Francisco Giants @ St Louis Cardinals Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14610-San-Francisco-Giants-at-St-Louis-Cardinals.htm)

August 13th
Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14631-Detroit-Tigers-at-Minnesota-Twins.htm)

Milwaukee Brewers @ Colorado Rockies Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14632-Milwaukee-Brewers-at-Colorado-Rockies.htm)


MY PICKS: 07/08 St Louis Cardinals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
13/08 Detroit Tigers - 1.5 Runs @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
13/08 Milwaukee Brewers - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

August Update: 0-1, - 2 Units


July Final: 12-11, + 3.54 Units
June Final: 2-3, - 2.66 Units
May Final: 11-25, - 22.52 Units
April Final: 26-22, + 25.60 Units

Season 2012: 51-61, + 3.96 Units

Tennis Recap July 28-August 5 (London Olympics and Washington)

The Olympic Games are over, as far as the tennis players are concerned anyway, and everyone will be moving to Canada in preparation for the US Open which will be beginning in a little over three weeks from today.

Below I have a few thoughts from the tournaments played this week and I will update the profit/loss from the week and overall for the season.


Congratulations to Andy Murray, but did anyone else feel the two players would have swapped the Finals from here and Wimbledon earlier this month?: It was the biggest win in Andy Murray's career in terms of the appeal the Olympics have, but it is funny to think he will win less Ranking points than if he wins in Toronto at the Masters event next week.


I was glad to see Murray get the first 'big' title of his career and we could see him move on to bigger and better things from here, but I'll speak more about that below.


I couldn't help but wonder, while watching the Final, that I was sure that both players would perhaps have swapped winning at Wimbledon and the Olympics so Murray took home the Grand Slam title and Roger Federer took the Olympic Gold.


However, that was before I heard the Federer interview when he suggested he was disappointed but just happy to have a singles Medal to go along with the Doubles Gold he picked up four years ago and I think he is the less likely of the two that would have swapped the occasion.

In saying that, Federer could have really joined an elite number of players that have won the 'Golden Slam' and it perhaps leaves his place in history under threat from Rafael Nadal if the Spaniard can pick up a few more Grand Slam titles on his bad knees.




What now for Andy Murray?: Andy Murray has the Gold Medal and there is a genuine chance that his belief has now built to such a level that he could win at the US Open in the final Grand Slam of the season.


Murray always felt the atmosphere at Flushing Meadows plus the choice of court would suit his game the best and now he has proven he can beat one of the big three in a best of five set match when it really matters.


I hope this has given him the belief that he can kick on and win his maiden Grand Slam title, while the US Open could represent his best chance to do so.


Rafael Nadal is still to return from injury, Novak Djokovic looks exhausted and Roger Federer is turning 31 and is also in need of a rest.


My concern still comes up in whether Murray can continuously produce when the matches are best of five from the First Round rather than best of three before the Final, but he is playing probably the best tennis of all the players on Tour at this moment.


The draw, as ever, will be all important, but his belief will not be higher and Murray looks the man to beat at this moment.




Is there anyone that can come close to matching Serena Williams in the Women's game?: Serena Williams looked unplayable on the way to winning the Gold Medal in London and completing her own Golden Slam and she has now won all three tournaments she has competed in since being beaten in the French Open First Round.


No player is even close to the form shown by Williams in the last six weeks or so and her swatting of Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova, the current World Number 1 and 3, shows that the 'real' Number 1 remains the American.


Right now, I wouldn't back anyone else to take the US Open title in the Women's game and it is going to take a really special effort to beat Williams. She is serving wonderfully well, hitting powerful groundstrokes all over the court and has the swagger of someone who knows she is going to win.




Juan Martin Del Potro may be back: I love the way Juan Martin Del Potro plays the game of tennis and also the way he is very humble in victory and gracious in defeat.


In 2009, it looked like he was ready to make a real splash on the Main Tour as he reached the Semi Final at the French Open, won the US Open and was the Runner Up in the End of Year Championships... And then he was hit with a wrist injury.


He returned to full health in January 2011, but I have been holding off on believing he was truly back- even last month at Wimbledon I wasn't sure he was going to get to the Quarter Final and I began to worry that he may never return to the form he had displayed three years ago.


How happy am I to think I may just have been wrong to worry?! Del Potro finished with the Bronze Medal here but he pushed Roger Federer all the way in the Semi Final (and may just have taken out everything from the Swiss man in the process) and then beat Novak Djokovic to pick up the Medal.


He was serving exceptionally well in the last two matches, but it was the heaviness and accuracy of his groundstrokes that really impressed me. He also showed the lack of fear that has made him the only winner of a Grand Slam outside of the top three in the last 30 Grand Slam events and I think Del Potro could be the biggest danger at the US Open where he has history.


If the draw is right, Del Potro may just be able to repeat his feat from 2009, although the best of five format can be a lot trickier to negotiate.




Daily Picks Final: 10-10, + 0.32 Units (39 Units Staked)


Outright Picks: - 0.80 Units (12 Units Staked)


Overall Weekly Final: - 0.48 Units (51 Units Staked)


Season 2012: + 58.85 Units (705 Units Staked, 8.35% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap July 9-15

It wasn't a great week on the circuit for me, but more of that below.

It is unusual for the calender to be so busy in the week following a Grand Slam event, but the Olympic Games means a slight shift in emphasis this season and that has meant a number of tournaments are getting their events through before the players head to North America for the hard court season and preparation for the US Open.

Four years ago, the Olympics actually took place after the two Masters events in Cincinnati and Canada, but this year they are fitted in ahead of the two big tournaments and thus giving the players a little more normality in their play. The biggest issue is going to be the lack of time between the Olympic tournament and the Toronto Masters starting and the change from grass to hard courts in the space of a few days could see a lot more surprising results early in that tournament.

Anyway, here are a couple of things that have popped up from the events taking place this week.


Laura Robson's first Semi Final appearance: It was a slightly disappointing end to the tournament in Palermo for Laura Robson as she made too many errors in the loss, but the run to the Semi Final on a clay court does bode well for her development as far as I am concerned.


The only real fear for her at the moment is that she won't develop the tactical side of her game to go with all the power she has. That may make her a player like, for example, Lucie Safarova that is capable of blowing past some top players when everything is working for her, but too often fails to keep things going consistently enough to beat the rest regularly.


Now that is not to say that Safarova hasn't done well in her career already, but sometimes you have to look to achieve more especially with the talent that Robson does possess.


I am still sure that Robson is going to be the most successful British Female player for over twenty years, but I really hope the LTA and her coaches don't ruin what could be a real diamond.




Big week for Lleyton Hewitt, but the exception rather than the norm these days: Lleyton Hewitt is an under-rated player as far as I am concerned, with a lot of people likely to look back at his career and feel he won his Grand Slam titles in a small period where Pete Sampras was no longer the force of old and Roger Federer was yet to make his breakthrough on the Main Tour.


He was a real fighter back in his prime and could give a lot of players a lot of problems with his ability to turn defence into attack within a couple of shots. However, those days are long gone and I think we may look back at Newport as being a tournament where Hewitt put things together for a short while before blending into fields.


The tournament here was not exactly loaded with top-level talent either, especially the half in which Hewitt was placed, but I think it says a lot that he was still 40-1 to win the event... To me, that shows how far he is from his best.


The problem for Hewitt is that he seems to have lost a step on the court so no longer can play defence as he used to and he doesn't have the big shots to prevent falling into long rallies.


I am not sure how long the Australian has left on the circuit these days, but it was nice to see him have at least one more successful week.




Daily Picks Final: 3-8, - 6.08 Units (18 Units Staked)


Outright Picks Final: + 0.50 Units (3 Units Staked)


Week Final: - 5.58 Units (21 Units Staked)


Season 2012: + 67.54 Units (630 Units Staked, 10.7% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Wimbledon Recap 2012 (July 8th)

The third Grand Slam of the season has come and gone and we have crowned two more players as Champions this season. They are both familiar to winning here at SW19 as Roger Federer and Serena Williams became the latest winners of one of the big prizes this season following on from Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova.

Below, I have a few thoughts from the tournament over the last couple of weeks and then I will show the profit/loss from the tournament and the season as a whole.


Roger Federer is once again a Grand Slam Champion: The last time Roger Federer was lifting one of the big prizes in tennis was back at the Australian Open in 2010 and there would have been a lot of people that thought he was unlikely to win another Grand Slam tournament.


However, he has been working hard to get back to the pinnacle of the Men's game and that has seen him perform the most consistently of all the players since the US Open last year, although he still had not really come close to winning a Grand Slam with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal looking a little too strong for him.


Even at this tournament, it did seem that winning the tournament was likely to be beyond him, but his come from behind win over Julien Benneteau proved to be pivotal. Federer also saved his two best performances for the final two matches against Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and that has also seen him reclaim the World Number 1 Ranking.


Federer is set to surpass the record that Pete Sampras had held for most weeks at World Number 1 and that should also leave him in good stead going into the Olympics and the US Open later this season.


It truly is a remarkable achievement to see Federer return to the Number 1 spot, particularly in this era where the depth in the Men's game is so strong and I do think it strengthens his claims to go down as the 'Greatest Player in History'. A lot of people would have ruled him out ever winning another Grand Slam, let alone getting back to Number 1, but it is the mark of the man that he has managed to do so.


I have always thought it would be tough for Federer to go down as the 'Greatest' if Rafa Nadal can reach, say 15 Grand Slams, particularly with the head to head record between the two players, but if Federer can add another couple of Slams to his record, it will be tough to surpass him.


I remember hearing Federer speak about getting to 20 Grand Slams before he retires and you wouldn't want to bet against him considering the desire and belief he has shown to get back to World Number 1... Do I think he will get to 20? I find that tough to believe with Federer reaching 31 years old next month and with the likes of Djokovic and Nadal around.




Is Federer now the favourite to win the Gold medal at the Olympics?: I think the fact the Olympics are going to be played on grass was always going to help Federer more than it hurt him, but I still think Rafael Nadal is the player that could cause problems and should still be the man to beat, along with Novak Djokovic, when it comes to the Gold Medal.


The best news about reaching World Number 1 for Federer is that he doesn't necessarily have to beat both Nadal and Djokovic, as he would have had to at this tournament if the Spaniard had not been beaten early, but the draw is still very important to his chances.


The grass courts are probably the only courts where Federer is less vulnerable to the big hitters, but the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych (who also beat Federer at the Olympics in Athens in 2004) would still think they have a chance of knocking him off, especially in a best of three sets match.


As I said, the draw is very important to decide who should be the favourite, but I still think the two Men immediately below him in the Rankings should be leading the markets.




How will Andy Murray be received by the public following his loss: First things first, I think Andy Murray should be given a lot of credit for reaching the Wimbledon Final and his performance should not be criticised as he really did give his all and came up a little short.


There was a moment in the second set when he missed a couple of balls that he had been dealing with previously and there were some comparisons with his loss to Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final at Wimbledon last year when he had an easy forehand to go a set and a break up on the Spaniard.


While there can't be anything disparaging to be said about Murray's performance, I think the genuine disappointment and tears at the post-match interview on the court will have adhered him to the millions that were watching on TV and I think he will have more sympathy and fans from that.


Murray apologised for Federer as he felt it may have taken away from the Swiss man's victory, but it did show a side of him that many would not have seen before and I think that can only be a good thing for a player that doesn't look the happiest on the court.




Why do so many think Murray does not deserve the support of the home fans?: I have heard from a few people that they wouldn't be backing Andy Murray after what he said about the England team back in 2006.


If you don't know, all Murray said was that he was supporting 'anyone but England' in the football World Cup, but it was a tongue-in-cheek comment that seems to have riled up a lot of English people.


I heard many say they don't like him because of those comments, but I am unashamedly a Murray fan- yes, he can look a little miserable at time, but he seems to have a dry sense of humour that I appreciate and I think he is actually a lot easier to get on with off the court than on it.


Personally, I have never seen the need to 'support' a person based on their nationality when it comes to individual sports as they are doing things for themselves first and foremost- so if someone says they don't like Murray because he looks a miserable bastard, fair enough... But to not like him for a comment made as a teenager looks a little silly as far as I am concerned, especially as I don't think anyone would want to be judged by what they said as teenagers I'm sure.




People should talk about a 'top three' not a 'top four': I have already said I like Andy Murray so I hope this is not read as being too critical of him, but I do think the use of 'big four' should be put on the back-burner by those in the media from now on and until Murray wins a Grand Slam.


The top three players look a level above Murray at the moment and I think there is actually a smaller gap between him and David Ferrer at Number 5 than there is between Murray and Rafa Nadal at Number 3.


We have to appreciate all the success Murray has had already in his career, but I just think it is doing the Djokovic, Federer and Nadal's of this World a disservice by not placing them head and shoulders above the rest in the Men's field.


IF Murray can win a Grand Slam, he would at least be in the same kind of conversation as the three players above him, especially as it could lead to further success at Slam level, but this term 'big four' has to be retired until Murray does win one.




Serena Williams is back on her throne: All the talk pre-Wimbledon was about the huge achievements that Maria Sharapova had made by winning just her fourth Grand Slam, albeit completing a career Grand Slam, but the real Queen of Women's tennis can now say she is back on her throne after winning the title here.


Serena Williams has managed to beat a life-threatening illness and won her first Grand Slam since winning Wimbledon in July 2010, but that win means she has more Wimbledon titles than Sharapova has Grand Slams- that should put it into perspective what kind of achievements Sharapova has and how much they are blown out of proportion compared to her peer in Williams.


It was important for Williams to win this title having fallen far short at the Australian and French Opens this season and also being surprised by Sam Stosur in the Final of the US Open last year.


The win will give Serena the belief that she can go on and really stamp her place in the history of the Women's game with further Grand Slam success and I think there is a vacuum in the Women's tour at the moment to suggest she can go on and dominate.


I think Serena will be the favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal and the US Open and I wouldn't want to bet against her right now with the confidence likely to have reached new heights.




Wimbledon is the latest in successful Grand Slam events: Wimbledon is the latest tournament where the outright picks have been very successful as I once again managed to get both the Men's and Women's Champion in the staking plan.


That means I have been successful in identifying the Winner of both the Men's and Women's events at all three Grand Slams so far.


Anyone who reads the blog with any regularity will know I don't like talking about my successes any more than the failures, but this is one thing I am extremely happy with.




Wimbledon Daily Picks Final: 21-17, + 8.88 Units (72 Units Staked)


Wimbledon Outright Picks Final: + 12.50 Units (9 Units Staked)


Wimbledon 2012 Final: + 21.38 Units (81 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 73.12 Units (609 Units Staked, 12.01% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks May 18th (Rome)

Wow, was I frustrated yesterday... I couldn't believe the manner in which some of my picks went down and openly questioned whether the tournament had moved from Rome to Bizzaro World with some of the results and performances that were being put in.

You can't blame me for thinking that we had moved to an alternate reality as Richard Gasquet saved 15 out of 17 break points he faced- this is a player that has regularly struggled under pressure, yet managed to continuously fend off Andy Murray and managed to stay on serve... On another day he would have been beaten comfortably, but that was not to be today.

I then saw the Sam Stosur pick go down the drain as one of the best servers on the WTA Tour managed to win less than 50% of the points on serve.

Things were only due to get stranger as Juan Martin Del Potro blew a break advantage in the first set and was comfortably beaten by Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, not exactly a major force on the clay courts usually.

Fortunately, I can at least point to the fact that Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal have both advanced in the tournament, although Victoria Azarenka had to withdraw with an injury and is in serious danger of missing the French Open.

The season so far has been very productive, but this has been a terrible last 24 hours and I did consider whether I would make any more picks this week and just move on to the next tournaments while the outright picks ran. However, I have decided to play a couple of the Quarter Final matches on slate tomorrow and look for an upturn of fortunes.


Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The spread does look a little big considering the form that Tomas Berdych has shown on the clay courts over the last couple of seasons, but the big Czech player was very fortunate to get past Nicolas Almagro in the last Round and I don't think Rafael Nadal will be in such forgiving form.

Nadal was vocal about his disgust of having to play on a blue court in Madrid last week, particularly as the event is so close to Roland Garros, and he has looked like a player that is making a point now that he has returned to the traditional red clay courts. He comfortably progressed in the first two matches here and has always been a little more motivated when playing Berdych after their falling out in Madrid a few years ago.

The Spaniard has won all 9 meetings between the players since that match in Madrid, while he has demolished Berdych the last two times they have played on a clay court.

If Berdych serves as he did today, he will give Nadal too many chances and that should allow him to cover the spread.


David Ferrer - 4.5 games v Richard Gasquet: No, I am not just fading Richard Gasquet in this one, because I don't think he can show the same kind of resolve in this match as he did against Andy Murray yesterday.

I really would have backed David Ferrer to beat Andy Murray at this stage too if they had met as I think he is one of the more solid clay court players out there and I think he will give Gasquet fits with his game.

That has proven to be the case in the past with Ferrer taking 6 of their 7 meetings on the Tour, including a simple straight sets win at the Australian Open earlier this season.

The Spaniard has generally taken the sets he has won off Gasquet with a little bit of room to spare, holding him to 3 or fewer games in 9 of the 13 sets Ferrer has won against the Frenchman.

There is also every chance that Gasquet could have a let down performance after his big win today and all of that points to me taking Ferrer to cover the spread.


Na Li - 4.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Dominika Cibulkova was the immediate beneficiary of Victoria Azarenka's withdrawal, but the longer term player that could capitalise is Na Li who has a chance to move up the Rankings above Caroline Wozniacki if she can get through this match.

Na Li is the current French Open Champion so her credentials on a clay court don't need to be stated. However, she can be frustrating to watch as she mixes the sublime with the ridiculous far too often, but she does have the talent to beat Cibulkova in this one.

The diminutive Slovakian is a tough competitor and she did reach the Final in Barcelona recently, but a more recent defeat to Akgul Amanmuradova is much more troublesome.

Li has won the only two meetings with Cibulkova in the past, including on a clay court in their last meeting back in 2010. I expect the Chinese Number 1 will be too good today, but she could make things a little tougher for herself than they should be with her inconsistency.


MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 4.5 games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Na Li - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 8-10, - 4.22 Units (35 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks May 17th (Rome)

Anyone who reads my Twitter account knows I was talking about Caroline Wozniacki earlier- it very much seems to be that she is going to be the latest former World Number 1 who loses all confidence as soon as she is knocked off that position, much in the same manner that Dinara Safina did.

I am not a big Wozniacki fan... In fact, I think she is very over-rated and has not received half the criticism that she should have because she is considered 'attractive' unlike Dinara Safina who was hounded in many sections for being the 'worst number 1 in history'.

It's funny, I always tell people to compare Wozniacki's record with Safina and explain why it is the Russian that gets all the criticism when she was much more successful in the big Grand Slam tournaments than Wozniacki has been.

But something strange happened today and much attitude towards the Dane softened a little bit. I don't like sportsmen or women to completely lose control of their game because their confidence has been shot to pieces, but I think that is what has happened to Wozniacki. It is almost like losing the World Number 1 status has made her doubt herself and her own ability to match up against the best players on the Tour.

I know she retired with an injury today, but she has already lost 10 times this season having lost a total of 17 throughout the 2011 and 2010 seasons. Since the Australian Open, Wozniacki has beaten Serena Williams once but the is the only really impressive win, while she has also lost to the American as well as Angelique Kerber (twice), Maria Sharapova, Ana Ivanovic, Julia Goerges and Lucie Safarova and I just feel some of those names would not have beaten the Dane if she was the World Number 1.

Wozniacki has also failed to win a tournament so far in the 2012 season and it is going to be interesting to see if she recovers from these setbacks, or falls irreversibly down the Rankings.


The picks I made yesterday sucked... The first two came in, but then three straight losers left me with a loss and has made this tournament very unprofitable so far. However, I can at least smile at the thought that all three outright picks are still moving ahead in the draw, although Serena Williams is looking a big threat in the Women's draw.

It is another packed schedule in Rome tomorrow as we reach the Third Round of the Men's and Women's events and my picks are as follows:


Nicolas Almagro v Tomas Berdych: These two acted a lot more civilised in their last meeting at Indian Wells which followed their handbags at the Australian Open, but the one thing to take from that match was how motivated Nicolas Almagro seemed to be compared with his opponent.

Berdych had played a lot of tennis going into that event at Indian Wells and struggled to cope with the motivation Almagro played with and I have a feeling the amount of tennis the Czech player over the last two weeks may catch up with him here.

Berdych did well to reach the Final in Madrid last week, and perhaps should have won the event, and he may just get caught out here. He also had a tough match yesterday against Lukasz Kubot and I think Almagro has a lot more belief these days that he can beat top 10 opponents.

The Spaniard won their last meeting on a clay court last season in straight sets and I think the 2.75 looks far too big a price that he can win this one.


Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: Andy Murray blows hot and cold so much that you don't know how easy he is going to make this early Rounds at any event, but playing the likes of David Nalbandian and now Richard Gasquet should get his competitive juices flowing and keep him focused on the task at hand.

Richard Gasquet is one of the players that has failed to live up to the expectation others had in him, while I don't think he can honestly say he has gotten the best out of his talent. He is a former Grand Slam Semi Finalist, but many expected him to be winning those events.

The Frenchman doesn't seem to have the confidence when facing the best players on the Tour, while generally handling those he believes he is better than with general ease, and his tactics seem far too passive to really cause problems for too long.

Andy Murray has the returning skills to cause Gasquet problems on serve and should be able to cover this spread as long as he doesn't serve like a chump.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga may be the higher ranked player of the two, but it is Juan Martin Del Potro who is the better clay court player and I think he will be able to take advantage of that fact here in Rome.

Losses to the likes of Tommy Haas and Gilles Simon on the surface doesn't bode well for Tsonga who does his best work on the faster surfaces. However, he is 5-1 down in the head to head to Del Potro and all but one of those has come on a hard court.

Del Potro also hammered Tsonga at the French Open, losing just 13 games as he progressed in 2009. The Argentine has played a lot of tennis in recent weeks, but he played to a high level when beating Mikhail Youzhny last night and will be confident he can get to yet another Quarter Final this season.


Sam Stosur - 2.5 games v Venus Williams: I like the Australian to get through against a tough opponent in Venus Williams and that is mainly because Sam Stosur will believe she can get the better of the American.

Belief cannot be under-estimated when it comes to playing the Williams sisters and we have seen that with Serena Williams who has an aura that makes it tough for other players to face her.

Venus has a similar aura, but is older and players feel she has maybe lost a step. All of this won't matter to Stosur who does feel she can beat anyone on her day.

Stosur beat Venus Williams on an American clay court last month and I just think the Australian is too solid on the clay courts for the older Williams sister. I don't like backing against the Williams', but this does look a good spot to do so.


Maria Sharapova - 3.5 games v Ana Ivanovic: Ana Ivanovic frustrates the life out of me as she is one of the players that I can never get a great read on- if I think she will win, she loses, but when I think she is going to lose, she plays out of her skin and wins.

So beware when I say that, as I am taking her on with Maria Sharapova, one of the form players and one who has come to embrace the clay courts after really struggling to deal with her movement on the surface in the past.

Reaching the Semi Final at the French Open last year has given her real belief, while winning the tournament in Stuttgart by beating Victoria Azarenka would only have built on her confidence. It took a solid performance by Serena Williams to beat Sharapova last week in Madrid, and I don't think Ivanovic can sustain such a level to win this match.

Ivanovic is definitely making a move the right way in the World Rankings, but she still has to overcome some mental barriers to beat a player of Sharapova's class, while she has lost her last three meetings against her. She did overcome the Russian in their one and only clay court meeting, but that was over 5 years ago and I think Sharapova proves too strong in a well-contested match.


MY PICKS: Nicolas Almagro @ 2.75 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Andy Murray - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sam Stosur - 2.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 7-6, + 0.68 Units (26 Units Staked)

Tennis Recap May 6-13 (Madrid)

It wasn't a great week in Madrid for tennis fans as too many players were not happy about being here and that meant that there were some poor performances and some really surprising results.

I don't think I can remember the last time that both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal had exited a Masters event before the Semi Finals, and both players left with their future participation at the event very much in doubt.

I'll put down a few thoughts from the event below and also update the season profit and loss. I will then have a separate thread with the outright picks from the Rome Masters, which actually began earlier today, and daily pick threads will start from tomorrow...


Roger Federer has reached World Number 2: Over the last 6-8 months, Roger Federer has definitely got back to something like his best and I am not surprised in the slightest that he has overtaken Rafael Nadal in the Rankings and moved back to the World Number 2 position. For the first time in many years, Federer has made it no secret of his desire to return to the Number 1 position when this season began and he is well on the way to getting somewhere near that as Novak Djokovic has plenty more points to defend than the Swiss man.


A couple of months ago, I also made it a point to suggest the move back into the top 2 in the World Rankings may actually aid Federer's chances of winning another Grand Slam as he is could, depending on the draw of course, no longer need to beat BOTH  Rafael Nadal and Djokovic to do so. At the end of the day, in a gruelling Grand Slam event, it is those small differences that can make all the difference.


Now I am not sure when the French Open decides on their seeds but I do know that unlike Wimbledon, they are based solely on the Rankings a player has rather than looking at past results as Wimbledon does. My only question is whether the seedings are taken from Rankings in this week or the previous week?


Federer only reached the Third Round at the Rome Masters last season, so I expect he will likely further increase his lead over Nadal in the Number 3 position and perhaps close further on Djokovic as the Number 1...




Serena Williams may still not be the player to beat at Roland Garros: I have tremendous respect for Serena Williams who I regularly describe as the best player in the World, but I am not jumping on the bandwagon just yet that she is the favourite to win at Roland Garros.


The bottom line is she has struggled at that event throughout her career, only winning it once, and she regularly has to beat the fans as well as her opponent and that has never really sat well with her.


Williams did record a thumping win over Victoria Azarenka, the World Number 1 and the most in-form player in 2012, but the conditions in Madrid favour the American's game so much and are not replicated in Paris. The altitude makes the ball run faster, while the courts have always been quicker than other clay courts so I think it is too soon for people to label Williams as the favourite.


Next week the Tour moves to Rome and I will be interested to see how she performs there (although she may make my outright plan once I look at her draw).




Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic whinging: Normally I would say that the players are being bad losers in their criticisms of the courts in Madrid, but you can't really say too much when the organisers themselves admit that they are slippery and they have made mistakes in the way they have laid the surface.


The problem here seems to be that the courts have been laid too late, meaning there was nothing that could be done once the organisers realised that they were not as playable as they had been making out in the lead up to the event.


I would love to see more contrasts in the courts around the World rather than the way they are at the moment with similar speeds and little variation in the surfaces... However, I don't think the courts in Madrid came under that category, but rather were a little dangerous with players struggling with footing and turning.


With the top two players (in terms of Ranking coming into the event) essentially saying they will boycott this tournament in the future until they return to the red clay, I think Madrid's hand may well be forced for the 2013 event.




Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.60 Units (26 Units Staked)


Season Update: + 34.08 Units (354 Units Staked, 9.63% yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

MLB Picks May

I can't complain too much about the start to the regular season in the baseball, with a nice healthy profit to end April.

As with last month, I will post all the May picks, whenever I have any, on this one thread to keep a record of the results and let us hope for more of the same from April.


May 1st
Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14043-Baltimore-Orioles-at-New-York-Yankees.htm)

Minnesota Twins @ LA Angels Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14044-Minnesota-Twins-at-LA-Angels.htm)

May 2nd
Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14070-Kansas-City-Royals-at-Detroit-Tigers.htm)

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14071-Baltimore-Orioles-at-New-York-Yankees.htm)

Oakland Athletics @ Boston Red Sox Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14072-Oakland-Athletics-at-Boston-Red-Sox.htm)

May 9th
It was a bad end to April, and a pretty shocking start to May, that led me to think I need to take a mini-break from the baseball and have a look at my methods of making picks. April as a whole was a successful month and I did wonder if I had perhaps taken my eye off the ball and perhaps started ignoring vital statistics that I had used to make the month so profitable. With that said, I took a week to analyse my picks and feel pretty good coming off that break.


Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14185-Colorado-Rockies-at-San-Diego-Padres.htm)

May 10th
A miserable May so far, although it is still very early in the month... To be honest, the picks have been poor since the last few days in April so hope today brings a turnaround.


Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14194-Cleveland-Indians-at-Boston-Red-Sox.htm)

Washington Nationals @ Pittsburgh Pirates Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14197-Washington-Nationals-at-Pittsburgh-Pirates.htm)

May 12th
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14223-Seattle-Mariners-at-New-York-Yankees.htm)

Cleveland Indians @ Boston Red Sox Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14224-Cleveland-Indians-at-Boston-Red-Sox.htm)

Atlanta Braves @ St Louis Cardinals Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14225-Atlanta-Braves-at-St-Louis-Cardinals.htm)

May 14th
Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14255-Cincinnati-Reds-at-Atlanta-Braves.htm)

Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14256-Detroit-Tigers-at-Chicago-White-Sox.htm)

Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14257-Chicago-Cubs-at-St-Louis-Cardinals.htm)

May 15th
Chicago Cubs @ St Louis Cardinals Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14264-Chicago-Cubs-at-St-Louis-Cardinals.htm)

New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14269-New-York-Yankees-at-Baltimore-Orioles.htm)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14271-Pittsburgh-Pirates-at-Miami-Marlins.htm)

May 16th
Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14280-Minnesota-Twins-at-Detroit-Tigers.htm)

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14281-Cincinnati-Reds-at-New-York-Mets.htm)

May 19th
I took a few days off from the Major Leagues as I just felt the rub of the green was not going for me... The final straw was the FOUR errors that led to FIVE runs against the Detroit Tigers, and that was a sure sign I needed a break from the bad luck.


Hopefully I can end the month in strong fashion and bring the loss back down to a respectable level.


Chicago White Sox @ Chicago Cubs Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14315-Chicago-White-Sox-at-Chicago-Cubs.htm)

Boston Red Sox @ Philadelphia Phillies Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14316-Boston-Red-Sox-at-Philadelphia-Phillie.htm)

LA Angels @ San Diego Padres Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14317-LA-Angels-at-San-Diego-Padres.htm)

May 20th
Just when you think it can't get any worse than a 4 error, 5 unearned run performance, the Philadelphia Phillies decided to out-hit the Red Sox, but leave 9 runners on base, 8 in scoring positions, ground into 3 rally killing double plays, and Joe Blanton gave up 4 Home Runs after allowing 2 in his first 8 starts... That is called pissing somebody off and getting absolutely no luck, urghhh.


I didn't have time to write full previews today as the late finish of the Lakers-Thunder game last night meant I was catching up on sleep, and the Major Leagues are starting early. Still, there is at least 3 hours till the first match starts and the picks can be found in the section below... Here's hoping for a change of fortunes.

May 21st
Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14323-Washington-Nationals-at-Philadelphia-Phillie.htm)

San Francisco Giants @ Milwaukee Brewers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14324-San-Francisco-Giants-at-Milwaukee-Brewers.htm)

May 22nd
Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14329-Boston-Red-Sox-at-Baltimore-Orioles.htm)

Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14330-Detroit-Tigers-at-Cleveland-Indians.htm)

Atlanta Braves @ Cincinnati Reds Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14331-Atlanta-Braves-at-Cincinnati-Reds.htm)

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14332-Toronto-Blue-Jays-at-Tampa-Bay-Rays.htm)

May 23rd
'Miserable May' continues to taunt me... These four picks will make me decide if I am to take a break for the rest of the month or whether I am still looking at things in the correct manner, but just not getting the rub of the green.


Boston Red Sox @ Baltimore Orioles Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14334-Boston-Red-Sox-at-Baltimore-Orioles.htm)

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14335-Toronto-Blue-Jays-at-Tampa-Bay-Rays.htm)

LA Angels @ Oakland Athletics Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14336-LA-Angels-at-Oakland-Athletics.htm)

San Diego Padres @ St Louis Cardinals Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14337-San-Diego-Padres-at-St-Louis-Cardinals.htm)

May 24th
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Indians Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14339-Detroit-Tigers-at-Cleveland-Indians.htm)

San Diego Padres @ New York Mets Preview (http://goonersguide.com/baseball-pick-14340-San-Diego-Padres-at-New-York-Mets.htm)


MY PICKS: 01/05 New York Yankees - 1.5 Runs @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
01/05 LA Angels - 1.5 Runs @ 2.38 Sky Bet (2 Units)
02/05 Detroit Tigers - 1.5 Runs @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/05 New York Yankees - 1.5 Runs @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/05 Boston Red Sox - 1.5 Runs @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/05 San Diego Padres - 1.5 Runs @ 3.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
10/05 Cleveland Indians @ 2.38 Pinnacle (2 Units)
10/05 Washington Nationals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
12/05 New York Yankees - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
12/05 Cleveland Indians @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
12/05 St Louis Cardinals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.75 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/05 Atlanta Braves - 1.5 Runs @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
14/05 Detroit Tigers - 1.5 Runs @ 2.45 Pinnacle (2 Units)
14/05 St Louis Cardinals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.45 Pinnacle (2 Units)
15/05 St Louis Cardinals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
15/05 New York Yankees - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
15/05 Miami Marlins - 1.5 Runs @ 2.30 Pinnacle (2 Units)
16/05 Detroit Tigers - 1.5 Runs @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)
16/05 New York Mets - 1.5 Runs @ 2.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
19/05 Chicago Cubs - 1.5 Runs @ 2.50 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
19/05 Philadelphia Phillies @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
19/05 LA Angels - 1.5 Runs @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
20/05 New York Yankees - 1.5 Runs @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)
20/05 Milwaukee Brewers - 1.5 Runs @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
20/05 Chicago White Sox @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
20/05 San Francisco Giants - 1.5 Runs @ 2.60 Pinnacle (2 Units)
21/05 Washington Nationals @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
21/05 San Francisco Giants @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
22/05 Boston Red Sox - 1.5 Runs @ 2.38 Pinnacle (2 Units)
22/05 Detroit Tigers @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
22/05 Atlanta Braves - 1.5 Runs @ 2.45 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
22/05 Toronto Blue Jays @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/05 Baltimore Orioles @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/05 Tampa Bay Rays - 1.5 Runs @ 2.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/05 LA Angels - 1.5 Runs @ 2.15 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
23/05 St Louis Cardinals - 1.5 Runs @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
24/05 Detroit Tigers - 1.5 Runs @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
24/05 New York Mets-San Diego Padres Under 8 Runs @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)



MAY UPDATE: 11-25, - 22.52 Units

APRIL FINAL: 26-22, + 25.60 Units

Tennis Weekly Recap (Indian Wells and Miami)

I decided to recap the two big events in North America together as the time between them was not sufficient enough to do them individually, but there have been some good stories that have come out of the events.

That also concluded the early hard court season and we will be moving onto the clay courts after the Davis Cup ties are played later this week.

Roger Federer continues to close the gap on the top two in the Rankings: Roger Federer has been the most in-form Men's tennis player since the US Open last September and he continued his strong form at Indian Wells which he won for the fourth time.


He might have exited in Miami a little sooner than expected, but he is now just 900 points behind Rafael Nadal in the Rankings. It will be interesting to see how Federer does during this clay court season and what events he will take part in.


The Swiss star reached the Semi Final in Madrid last season, but had an early exit in Rome, while he has already decided not to take part at Monte Carlo this season.


He also has committed to Halle this season during the grass court season so there is a real chance he could be in the World's top 2 by Wimbledon, although he does have a number of points to defend at the French Open.




Victoria Azarenka's defeat at Miami highlights Novak Djokovic's achievement from 2011: Victoria Azarenka won the event at Indian Wells to extend her winning start to the season, but she was beaten at the Quarter Final stage at Miami and that highlights the achievements of Novak Djokovic last season.


I don't think too many people would argue against the Men's game being a lot deeper than the Women's so for Djokovic to go unbeaten until the Semi Final of the French Open was a remarkable achievement.


Victoria Azarenka is still the one to beat in the Women's game this season, but she did prove that the layers were taking no chances by keeping her prices so short in the outright markets, something that did hurt them during Djokovic's run last season.




Andy Murray's biggest problem in winning a Grand Slam: I really do rate Andy Murray as a player, but I think he is more than a little unfortunate to be an era where he would have to beat at least two of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic if he is to win a Grand Slam that he desires so much.


He seems to put things together for a couple of sets, but kind of mentally checks out when things get on top of him in a set and that is not going to work against the very best players in the World.


I still think he has a good chance at either Wimbledon or the US Open to win the tournament as long as he gets the right kind of draw. He may just need a little bit of luck that was afforded to Roger Federer in 2009 when he won the French Open as Rafael Nadal was knocked out early while suffering from a knee injury.


The next couple of months will be important for Murray as he plays on his least favourite surface and a chance to get some confidence before the grass court season and, later, the hard court season begins.




Andy Roddick's win over Roger Federer: A lot of people will see this as a turning point for Andy Roddick this season, but I wouldn't go too far as Federer was clearly exhausted from a long run of matches.


It was a special win for Andy Roddick, but it can't be forgotten that he was completely dismantled by Juan Monaco and now he is coming into the hardest part of the season for the American. He did move up to 29 in the World Rankings, and he will have a chance to improve that Ranking in time for Wimbledon as he only played two clay court tournaments last season and was beaten in the First Round in both.


Roddick has said he feels something good coming along, but it sounds like the same things Michael Owen of Manchester United continues to believe, and I am not sure there is that much left in the tank while there are plenty of players that will feel they are more than capable of beating Roddick.


I still think he could be a danger on grass with his experience, but the next two months are going to be tough for him for sure.




Maria Sharapova cannot get over the hurdle: You don't want to go overboard, but Maria Sharapova must be feeling the pressure as she lost her third Final of the season, this time to Agnieska Radwanska, and has finished as the Runner Up at Indian Wells and Miami as well as at the Australian Open.


She has not won a tournament since Cincinnati last August and she is now moving on to the clay courts, a surface she has made it clear is not her favourite in the past.


Sharapova was a little disappointing in both Finals recently, as well as in Australia, and I don't know how much of that is down to the expectations she is putting on herself. She will need to get over this hump sooner rather than later I feel, as these things can manifest into something far larger if a player is not careful.




Indian Wells: - 2.21 Units (42 Units Staked)


Miami: + 7.91 Units (38 Units Staked)


2012 Season Update: + 29.35 Units (298 Units Staked, + 7.93% Yield)
2011 Season: + 82.02 Units

NFL/NCAA Season Recap

I actually cannot believe that the NFL/NCAA Football seasons are already over after six months of fascinating stories that culminated with the Alabama Crimson Tide and the New York Giants being crowned as the Champions.

I easily had my worst time ever picking NFL games as the weekly results kept throwing up surprises, something I have put down to the lockout inspired season. There are some results I will never understand, for example seeing the New Orleans Saints lose, indoors no less, to the St Louis Rams as the 14 point favourites.

Or how about the thought that the Super Bowl Champions, the Giants, lost twice to the Washington Redskins and also to Seattle at home.

It was a season dominated by stories concerning Andrew Luck and the 'Suck for Luck' sweepstakes that were eventually 'won' by the Indianapolis Colts, although that does mean that we are VERY unlikely to be seeing Peyton Manning play in the Blue again.

The Manning story looks to dominate the next month before free agency starts as we get closer and closer to the March 8th deadline when he is due a roster bonus from the Colts, or will be cut from the team. Then we will get the Washington Redskins and the Miami Dolphins fighting for the signature, as well as Matt Flynn from the Green Bay Packers.


The NCAA season was much better in terms of reading the games, although it wouldn't have taken much for a blind monkey to do well on that front considering the favourites were dominant against the spread for much of the early part of the season.

The top 6-10 teams in the nation were head and shoulders clear of the rest and has once again got people clamouring for a Play Off system after Alabama were controversially picked to play the LSU Tigers in New Orleans for the National Championship. It seems the prospect of the top 4 being invited into a Semi Final and then a Final has been raised again and could potentially be brought in for the 2014 season.

We have already got through 'Signing Day' for new College recruits, and the next 4-5 months we will get to see which teams have begun filling in the gaps the most effectively. At the moment, the LSU Tigers look to be in a great position to get back to the National Championship Game and possibly go one further, although all the stories will be about the Bowl Eligible USC Trojans who have been given a boost by the returning Matt Barkley at QB.


Fortunately, we will not have daily updates of how the Labour Negotiations are going, like we did last season, and the NFL will revert to a familiar pattern moving forward to the Draft in April. That also means we will get the 'excitement' of free agency from March 13th, although I have generally been disappointed with the action the Miami Dolphins take when that comes about.

Looking ahead at this early stage to the next season, you would imagine the likes of Green Bay, New Orleans and the New York Giants will be the leading contenders in the NFC, with the likes of Philadelphia and Detroit being definite dark horses to upset the apple cart.

The AFC has less teams that can really make an impact in my mind, with New England, Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh being the leading teams before Free Agency and the Draft have been completed. We could see another improvement from Cincinnati if they are smart in the Draft, while I expect better from the New York Jets and San Diego.

Seeing how the next four months develop will help sharpen these thoughts in what was another entertaining season at both College and professional levels.

NCAA Season 2011-12: 63-36, + 23.25 Units


NFL Season 2011-12: 80-83-2, - 13.72 Units

College Football Week 3 Picks and Previews

It's been a good couple of weeks for me in the College Football picks, but do not make the mistake that the picks I make are 100% guarantees because there is NO SUCH THING in the world of sports.

A turnover, a missed field goal and sometimes even a missed extra point can be the difference between success and failure so while it has been a good start, I do need to keep my research going and trying to pick the best action from the week.

Below I have my picks and full previews of the game I will be backing this week and hopefully they will make sure we can continue making profit through Week 3:

Boise State Broncos @ Toledo Rockets (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11627-Toledo-Rockets-v-Boise-State-Broncos.htm)

Stanford Cardinal @ Arizona Wildcats (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11628-Arizona-Wildcats-v-Stanford-Cardinal.htm)

Northern Illinois Huskies v Wisconsin Badgers (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11629-Northern-Illinois-v-Wisconsin-Badgers.htm)

Tennessee Volunteers @ Florida Gators (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11632-Florida-Gators-v-Tennessee-Volunteers.htm)

Nevada Wolfpack @ San Jose State Spartans (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11634-San-Jose-State-v-Nevada-Wolfpack.htm)

Houston Cougars @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11635-Louisiana-Tech-v-Houston-Cougars.htm)


These picks are my views of how the game will go and just remember the key is to reach a 55-57% strike rate to ensure profit for the year. By opening the links, you will able to see my reasons for the picks in the 'prediction' section and why I have picked who I have.


MY PICKS: Boise State Broncos - 19 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 16.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Nevada Wolfpack - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + 7 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


WEEK 2: 3-0, + 2.82 Units
WEEK 1: 4-0, + 3.74 Units


SEASON UPDATE: 7-0, + 6.56 Units

US Open Recap

The final Grand Slam of the season has come and gone in Flushing Meadows and it was an interesting tournament as Novak Djokovic underlined his status as the World Number 1, while Serena Williams had her 2nd consecutive meltdown at this event.

Below are a few thoughts coming out of the event and also the season profit update.

1) Novak Djokovic has already recorded the best tennis season in memory: When I say this, I mean in the Men's game although it is also arguable that it is the best single season in both the Men's and Women's events. To go 70-2 while picking up 3 Grand Slams is mighty impressive, but to do it in an era when Men's tennis is definitely in a 'boom' phase makes the feat even more incredible.

The Serb could easily have gone out to Roger Federer in the Semi Final but staved off 2 match points and has now improved his record to 11-1 against Federer and Rafael Nadal in 2011, an incredible statistic on its own.

I am sure he will have a long rest until the tournament in Shanghai now (I think he will pull out of Serbia's Davis Cup tie at the weekend), but he still has 2 achievements left that will truly cap this wonderful year: winning at the O2 at the End of Year Championships and retaining the Davis Cup with Serbia.

2) Rafael Nadal needs to go back to the drawing board in dealing with Djokovic: Nadal has shown in this tournament that he is definitely the 2nd best player in the World, but he needs to find a solution to the Djokovic problem after losing 6 straight Finals against the Serb this year.

For long periods he didn't know what exactly he wanted to do yesterday and his forehand just does not trouble Djokovic: you have to credit the World Number 1 from analysing the games of Nikolay Davydenko and David Nalbandian and trying to take the ball early to remove all of Nadal's heavy spin, something those two players have had success with in the past, just not with Djokovic's consistency.

Nadal needs to look to get more out of his serve, as he doesn't get enough free points from it. For years the complaint was that he did not use the natural 'lefty serve' in the advantage court and that is something he should go away and develop for the 2012 season.

At the moment he is forced to work so hard for every single point and the consistency and power of Djokovic is taking it out of him.

3) Will Roger Federer add to his Grand Slam tally? I still think Federer has another Grand Slam left in him, only being ousted here in New York by a 'lucky' shot on match point 1 against Novak Djokovic.

He will need the right draw if he is to make an impact at Slam level though, as more and more people fancy their chances against him and the top 2 really do not hold fear of him.

I am not ready to rule Federer out just yet.

4) Caroline Wozniacki once again showed she is not a World Number 1: I will give the Dane her credit and say she is out on the tour almost all the time so she deserves her ranking for consistency, but personally I would change the Ranking system to put more and more importance on the Grand Slam events and the upper tour events while lessening the points gained in winning the tournaments where only one or two of the top 30 players will be competing.

Wozniacki was completely outgunned by Serena Williams and had no real idea to deal with the American. Defeats to Dominika Cibulkova and Daniela Hantuchova in the last 2 Grand Slams are not what is expected of a World Number 1 either.

I think it will be tough to take the World Number 1 off Wozniacki in the near future, unless Serena Williams devotes more time to a fuller schedule on the tour next season.


The tennis picks will slow down over the next 3-4 weeks as there is a rest period coming up for the main players while the events on offering are not the best.

I will make a couple of Davis Cup Picks if I can find some value in the market so check in later on in the week for those. In the meantime I will continue making my football, College Football and NFL picks.

US OPEN DAILY PICKS: 27-18, + 27.36 Units


US OPEN OUTRIGHT PICKS: - 12 Units


OVERALL US OPEN TOURNAMENT: +15.36 Units


SEASON PROFIT/LOSS: + 82.08 Units

Tennis Profit/Loss Update August 22nd-28th

After both outright picks fell away to defeats and both of my picks from the coupon also lost from bad positions, I have decided to call it a day for the week and get ready for the US Open.

The draw will be out on Thursday evening at around 6pm British Time, and I should have a preview of the tournament and picks ready on Friday.


DAILY PICKS: - 3 Units


OUTRIGHT PICKS: - 2 Units


OVERALL WEEK UPDATE: - 5 Units




SEASON PROFIT/LOSS UPDATE: + 66.72 Units

Tennis Profit/Loss Update July 18th-25th

It was a fine week last week, easily the best since the end of Wimbledon as Mardy Fish ensured plenty of profits by winning the tournament in Atlanta as well as the daily picks bringing in plenty of profit of their own.

I have had to endure a tough couple of weeks before this week when it felt like a little bit of luck had deserted me, but I have tried my best to not lose my head by chasing losses and have instead managed my picks to bring us back going in the right direction.

Hopefully the next week I can continue with the current form and continue building the bank before the big Masters events in Montreal and Cincinnati. With a little over a month to go before the US Open begins at Flushing Meadows, this is a key time to keep the bank ticking over- now the key is to not give it back to the enemy.


WEEKLY PROFIT/LOSS: + 24.30 Units (+ 17.04 Units Daily Picks; + 7.26 Units Outright Picks)


OVERALL PROFIT/LOSS: + 63.06 Units

Boxing Picks Recap (July 23rd)

It was an interesting night of boxing yesterday and a profitable one for followers of the blog as Tyson Fury managed to repel all of Dereck Chisora's attacks to win a unanimous decision on points. I was thinking the scorecards would read 116-112 in favour of the bigger man, but it was actually a couple of points wider on the night and it is Chisora who loses his unbeaten record.

I think a lot of people will have been disappointed with Chisora, especially as he came in at a career high weight, an issue that perhaps affected his stamina during the fight. It just goes to show how far he is from challenging the likes of the Klitschko brothers.

Fury himself should not actively seek a fight with the reigning Champions- I still think he is a little green and needs to keep working on his techniques and move up to European level after a couple more domestic fights.

It would be a mighty setback for his career if he goes in with Wladimir Klitschko next and takes an easy beating- right now I would not see that fight going any other way.


On the other side of the pond, Amir Khan confirmed he is the real deal and the best light-welterweight in the World. Some may still argue for Tim Bradley, but I dont believe the American will fight at 140 pounds again and he also turned down the chance to prove he is the Number 1 fighter in the Division when rejecting a 50-50 split offer of all revenue from Khan's team.

It looks like Khan's path to Floyd Mayweather has been set by his Golden Boy promoters and I will be interested to see who he next goes in with before moving up to 147 next year.

The rumours are that Erik Morales will be tempted into a fight in December, but there is still a chance a rematch with Marcos Maidana could be in the pipeline if the Argentinian fighter can defeat Robert Guerrero in their scheduled fight in August, otherwise it could be Guerrero who is brought in.

If Khan can continue on his winning ways, it is then expected he will come back to Britain for his first fight at 147 pounds in a big domestic showdown with Kell Brook. Now that is a fight I will very much be interested in viewing, and could happen if Brook can get a portion of the World title at that weight. The Sheffield fighter is unbeaten and looks a real prospect, so a fight with Khan would make all the sense in the World, especially considering the fighters seem to genuinely dislike one another if their Twitter war is to be believed.


I will be honest enough to say I wasn't sold on Khan, but his performance last night has got me leaning towards him. I would prefer if he didn't make so many comments in the press and just let his fists do the talking from now on.


BOXING PICKS UPDATE: + 5.8 Units

Profit/Loss Update June 13th-19th Tournaments

The week before a Grand Slam can always be a little hazardous to make picks and this week proved no different for me as the weather wreaked havoc in England and Holland.

That meant I did limit picks to such an extent that I ended with the tiniest of profit margins for the week. I decided not to play any matches from the Semi Finals onwards as the motivation of players was questionable to say the least.


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.13 Units


OVERALL TENNIS PROFIT/LOSS: + 43.18 Units

Profit/Loss Update June 6th-12th Tournaments

This is a very quick post updating my weekly profit/loss and also updating the overall profit/loss of the tennis picks I have been making.

Both Andy Murray and Daniela Hantuchova let me down in their Finals as both failed to cover the spread. That dropped the profit from the week but we are still moving in the right direction as Wimbledon approaches.

 FINAL WEEKLY PROFIT/LOSS:  + 6.03 Units


OVERALL TENNIS PROFIT/LOSS: + 43.05 Units

French Open Profit/Loss Recap

So Rafael Nadal is once again the King of Clay after an impressive win over Roger Federer. This has really got me looking forward to Wimbledon as Nadal-Federer look to renew their rivalry with dangerous players like Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic looking to spoil the party.

Rafa's quick shutdown of Federer in the 4th set meant the - 4.5 games pick I had made for the Final came in as well, and that completes an extremely productive 2 weeks.

FRENCH OPEN DAILY PICKS: The daily picks proved successful (barring a couple of losing days) and helped us end the tournament with + 27.69 Units of profit.

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHT PICKS: This too proved to be valuable ground as I had identified Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer at the start of the tournament.

The 0.5 unit e/w pick of Tomas Berdych didn't last more than the first 2 days of the tournament, but I was fortunate to pick up + 5 Units from the Rafael Nadal win.

I also picked up an additional + 5.33 Units on Federer thanks to the Swiss former World Number 1 finishing as the runner up. However, 1 of those units will be taken off thanks to Federer not quite winning the tournament.

That means there is an additional + 9.33 Units from the outright picks.


OVERALL FRENCH OPEN: + 37.02 Units

March Profit/Loss Final Tally

So another month passes us by and I cannot be the only person who feels 2011 is rushing by as fast as 2010... Just a quick update today with March totals after a pretty good month.


Football + 8.22 Units

NBA Basketball + 10.76 Units
Basketball continues to bring in the big profits, although a disappointing run at the end of the month dropped some of the profits... Still over 10 units of profit is not to be sniffed at.

Special thanks to Oklahoma City Thunder who continued racking up the profits- look out for them in the Play Offs, a really dangerous team.


NHL Ice Hockey - 6.9 Units
The most disappointing aspect is the amount of picks I lost within the last minute of games.


MLB Baseball + 1 Unit
Very early days in the baseball, but a small profit so far.


Overall Profit + 13.08 Units