Tennis Picks 2016 (July 22nd)

The first couple of days of this week were pretty poor, but there has been some kind of recovery in the last couple of days.

At the time of writing this post, I still have two picks running from Washington and Stanford and if both of those come in I should be very close to getting this week back into the positive.

In the mean time I have started making my picks from the matches to be played on Friday when the Quarter Finals take over in the majority of the tournaments, although Kitzbuhel has already gotten to the Semi Final Round of that event.


Fabio Fognini - 3.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: Damir Dzumhur has beaten one Italian already this week, but now he takes on the best player from that nation on the ATP Tour in Fabio Fognini. There will be a revenge element in play for Dzumhur who was beaten in straight sets by Fognini last year in Umag in a Second Round match, although there is more on the line this time around with a Semi Final berth awaiting the winner.

I wasn't sure how Fognini was going to react to losing Rubber 4 in the Davis Cup Quarter Final on Sunday, although it has to be noted he looked the better player for much of that defeat to Federico Delbonis. I think he was struggling physically, but he should be well rested by Friday having needed to win just one match to get to this Quarter Final.

It has been a disappointing season for Fognini on the clay courts and he still has a losing record on the surface going into this match. That is in contrast to Dzumhur who has a winning record even though he has had to come through Qualifiers in a number of big tournaments. However he had lost four in a row on the clay prior to his win here earlier in the week and Dzumhur is not going to overpower Fognini in this one.

There should be some long rallies in this one as both players are capable of producing strong defensive tennis, but I think Fognini is the better player and that should eventually show. Last year he was a fairly comfortable winner, but this year it might be a closer 75, 64 kind of win for the Italian as he gets through to a rare Semi Final in 2016.


Laura Siegemund - 3.5 games v Lara Arruabarrena: It was a withdrawal from Angelique Kerber which allowed Lara Arruabarrena through to the Quarter Final, but she faces another German if she wants to go any further in the draw. Laura Siegemund reached the Semi Final in Bucharest last week and she has had her best results on the clay courts this season which makes her the favourite.

This has already been a career year for Siegemund and she has played some solid tennis to get through to the Quarter Final. Both of her wins have come in straight sets and I think Siegemund has the kind of game that will give Arruabarrena a lot to deal with.

The last seven losses Arruabarrena has had on the clay courts has seen her fail to get within this number and someone like Siegemund can get the better of her here. The Spaniard did reach the Semi Final in Bastad last season which would suggest she is comfortable in the conditions at this tournament, but Arruabarrena is not in really strong form at the moment.

Missing a match might keep her physically ready for this match, but it isn't enough against someone who will be battle hardened and I expect Siegemund to come through 64, 64.


Johanna Larsson - 1.5 games v Annika Beck: This has been a tournament that Johanna Larsson has loved playing at throughout her career with three Final appearances here. The defending Champion plays well in front of her own supporters and I think she can get the better of Annika Beck in what could be a very competitive Quarter Final.

I have to respect what Beck will bring to the table which can cause Larsson some problems. We saw Sara Sorribes Tormo give Larsson a hard time by making a few more balls back in play and Beck will be looking to do that throughout this match and try and break down the home favourite mentally as well as physically.

One difference between the players is that Larsson has a much bigger serve than her opponent and I expect her to get a few more free points in this one. Larsson broke the Sorribes Tormo serve every time on Thursday and she will have a chance to play first strike tennis against the Beck serve in this Quarter Final with much of the match on her racquet.

Larsson has been a dominant force in her home tournament over the seasons and she doesn't drop a lot of sets here in winning efforts. I expect her to win this match and so I will back her to cover this number in a three set win.


Samantha Stosur - 5.5 games v Jessica Pegula: There was an element of fortune about Samantha Stosur's Second Round win over Caroline Wozniacki as the latter had to retire with an injury while leading by a set. Now it is up to the Australian to make use of her reprieve in the draw and look to push on for another title on the hard courts in North America.

She looks to have been given a favourable draw against Jessica Pegula of the United States, even if the latter has produced two quality wins so far this week. This has been the first main Tour hard court tournament that the young American has entered this year and wins over Aleksandra Wozniak and Christine McHale, both in straight sets, are decent results to move forward with.

Some of the other results on the hard courts have been less impressive from Pegula this season but Stosur should give her respect considering she pushed Dominika Cibulkova to three sets last year at the US Open. The difference between Cibulkova and Stosur is the latter will produce some big time serving which will increase the pressure on Pegula who is trying to back up a huge upset win over McHale.

Stosur isn't at the same level that saw her win the US Open and the backhand remains a weakness, while she hasn't been blowing players off court too often on the hard courts. However she does save her best tennis for the US hard court swing and I am going to back her to cover a very big number at odds against.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Saisai Zheng: It has been a spectacular twelve months for Johanna Konta who will be amongst the Seeds at the US Open but I think the British Number 1 will be the first to admit to her disappointment with the way the grass court season went for her. A run to the Semi Final in Eastbourne was a solid result, but she was beaten in the Second Round in each of her other three events, including at Wimbledon.

One of the more disappointing defeats had to be the one suffered at the hands of Saisai Zheng, a player Konta had beaten fairly comfortably the previous two times they had met. I am not sure if there was a physical issue there, or whether the mental pressure of playing at home was the reason for that loss, but Konta looked good in her opening win in Stanford.

Both of Zheng's wins this week have looked good too, particularly the way she dismissed Alize Cornet in the last Round. However her game is one that Konta won't be overawed by and the latter has to feel she can get into those service games and earn break points through the contest.

The issue for Konta in Nottingham was that she simply did not serve well enough to keep Zheng under pressure and made too many mistakes through the match. That won't get it done against a solid, if unspectacular, opponent and Konta will know she has to be a little cleverer at the big moments to make this an easier day in the office.

The first serve is the key for Konta- if she can dominate behind that shot, I would expect she will have enough chances to record a 64, 63 win in this one and that is what I will be backing.


Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Misaki Doi: A strong end to the tournament in Washington will give Dominika Cibulkova every chance to work her way back into the top 10 of the World Rankings. Cibulkova is now a married player on the Tour and that has worked out well for some of the ATP players over the last couple of years and it will be interesting to see how it works out for her.

She played well in her first win in Washington, but Cibulkova's issue will always be protecting the serve well enough to come through matches on the faster hard courts. Her run to the Australian Open Final suggests she can do that, but the North American hard courts tend to play a little faster than the ones 'Down Under'.

Being overpowered shouldn't be a concern for Cibulkova in this Quarter Final as she meets Misaki Doi for the first time in their careers. Doi has won two matches as a strong favourite, but the First Round was far from straight forward and this is a player that has plenty of issues with her own serve.

The key for Doi is to try and stay in the rallies and look for an aggressive Cibulkova to make a lot of unforced errors as she starts chasing the lines. However I do think Cibulkova will have success on the return against a weak serve and I believe the Slovakian can move through to the Semi Final behind a 76, 62 win.


Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 games v Alison Riske: There is no doubt that Coco Vandeweghe is still a very erratic player capable of mixing the sublime with the ridiculous, but she needs to find a little more consistency if she is going to be Seeded at the US Open. Her come from behind win over Nicole Gibbs would have given her confidence, but Vandeweghe will have to be a lot stronger in a lot of departments if she is going to see off compatriot Alison Riske in this Quarter Final.

It has been a difficult season for Riske when it comes to trying to find the consistency to improve her own World Ranking, but she does have a few Finals to call upon. Coming off a decent grass court season, although one that saw her disappointingly beaten early at Wimbledon, should have raised the confidence levels backed up by two come from behind wins in Stanford.

However I do wonder if that is going to have a physical effect on Riske having played six sets compared with three Vandeweghe has played. She hasn't played a lot of tennis in recent weeks which should help, but there is only so many times you can go to the well and recover from a set down, with the mental fatigue also a potential factor.

My concern whenever I back Vandeweghe is that her aggressive style will lead to a lot of unforced errors which gifts breaks of serve away. The actual serve is a big weapon, but you have to follow that up correctly and failure to do that will give Riske a way into this match. In saying that, I think the latter has played a lot of tennis already this week and I don't think it will be possible for her to come back from a set behind again and I like Vandeweghe to move through behind a 64, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Samantha Stosur - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Coco Vandeweghe - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-11, - 1.84 Units (46 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 7th)

This is going to be a very short post because I am seriously pissed off with what has happened over the last month and I try and keep things as civil as possible on here.

The amount of times I have made picks and seen players get into winning positions and then lose or play like shit is just taken its toll on me and I refuse to play along any more.

For four seasons my picks have produced a healthy plus margin and a decent enough yield, but the last month has been absolutely horrific, the worst run in all that time and perhaps the worst run most people would have seen.

There are only so many times you can accept bad luck as part and parcel of things, but this looks like being my worst season by a million miles on the tennis Tour thanks to a run since Wimbledon that has seen 35 positive units erased.

How many times can a pick be in a position like 76, 52 and lose? How many times am I going to deal with a player losing a set 61, but then winning 62, 60 and failing to cover because of that shit set to start?

Players like Nicolas Almagro and Steve Johnson that will lose every other match they play, but somehow bring out their A++++++ matches when I am against them or F----------- matches when I have backed them, it is those kinds of rubbish that have addled my brain. Players who will break with the one chance they get, but then save three thousand break points, or players that will miss their chances by missing the most basic of shots.

Yes, things go up and down, but it has been embarrassingly one-sided against me in the last month with rubbish after rubbish after rubbish... I'd love to just say the picks have been poor, but that would be a lie as there have been plenty that have just about to win before crumbling away like they never had such a positive start.

Just too many things are taking the piss at the moment and I've had enough.

The football season in both England and America will be beginning soon and I'll be focusing on that, but I am not sure when I will be back making tennis picks. Maybe I'll look at the Canadian Masters/Premier Event, maybe I will decide to be back at the Cincinnati Masters, but I've had too many body blows to be interested in the next few days.

It stinks to be honest, but it is the way it goes and possibly I will wait until the US Open and call it a day for the season after the final Grand Slam with whatever the outcome is from that event.

For now, I've simply had enough. I'm not one to bullshit the results, they are there for all to see and I am sure most will understand that this really has been a unique time where literally everything has gone the wrong way when finely balanced.

Weekly Final: 4-13, - 18.34 Units (34 Units Staked, - 53.94% Yield)

Season 2015: - 2.57 Units (1260 Units Staked, - 0.02% Yield)

Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Note: On July 20th, the season total was + 35.25 Units with an almost 4% Yield which just proves how horrendous the last three weeks have been.

I'm also calling both Nicolas Almagro and Steve Johnson lose their matches on this day in embarrassingly one-sided fashion just to prove that luck is really conspiring against me.

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 6th)

You wouldn't think it was too difficult coming back from a set down to comfortably win tennis matches if you have been following the picks in the last couple of days. Jiri Vesely and Robin Haase both won sets with games in hand and still failed to get the job done, despite the former also serving for the match, while Bernard Tomic was another player who won the first set and went on to lose the match.

It feels like a bad couple of breaks that are letting down the week, but there is room to get back into a decent position if players begin to finish the positions they are getting into.

It also makes me laugh how brutal players are when they get into break point chances against my players picked this week, but are shockingly bad at taking those same chances when not being picked against!


Fabio Fognini v Philipp Kohlschreiber: This is the best Quarter Final taking place in Kitzbuhel today and I believe the winner might be the favourite to go on and win the title.

Philipp Kohlschreiber has won two of the three previous matches between these players, but Fabio Fognini won the most recent and has the quality to level up the head to head.

He can be hard to really trust as Fognini is just as capable of throwing in a performance where he barely looks like he wants to be on the court and he has to work hard to win his points. The Italian has shown better recent form than Kohlschreiber, although the latter has two decent wins under his belt this week which makes him dangerous once he gets on a roll.

I can see that as the reason that Kohlschreiber is perhaps favoured in this match as well as the long week that Fognini had in Hamburg where he came up just short against Rafael Nadal. However, a similar performance to one he had in the Final will be good enough for Fognini to beat Kohlschreiber in this one, although he might need three sets to do it.


Dusan Lajovic + 3.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: I wouldn't have picked either of these players to reach the Quarter Final and if it wasn't for Jiri Vesely choking away a 76, 52 lead, Nicolas Almagro certainly wouldn't be here. I am not convinced that the Spaniard is really to be trusted at short odds to make it through to the Semi Final even if Dusan Lajovic is not exactly in the greatest of form this past few weeks.

However, I think Lajovic is able to work through some games and will have chances to break the Almagro serve and winning a set should, and I mean should, be enough to make these games count. It hasn't so far with players winning sets with games in hand to begin, but Almagro hasn't looked like blowing anyone away and does look a vulnerable favourite.

The convincing loss to Pablo Andujar last week worries me when backing Lajovic, but Almagro hasn't been in the form to suggest he can win comfortably. Lajovic will have to protect his serve better than he did in his win over Andreas Seppi, especially in the first set, but he should have opportunities.

I simply also don't believe Almagro is such a big favourite in this one and Lajovic is worth backing with the games in his favour at odds against.


Dominic Thiem - 4.5 games v Albert Montanes: You have to think the last two weeks has taken some kind of physical toll on Dominic Thiem, but the two titles he has won has to be worth that effort. He had to dig deep in his first match in Kitzbuhel to come through in three sets, but the home tournament should inspire him to put in another big effort this week as he looks for a third title in a row.

A couple of years ago he was beaten comfortably by Albert Montanes here, but I think he can get a measure of revenge by moving into the Semi Final with a 64 63 win in this one.

Montanes has played well this week, but this has been an exception to previous weeks on the Tour as the veteran has begun to slip down the Rankings. The clay courts remain his favoured surface, but this is also where Thiem has won all of his titles this season and I think he will have gotten something out of his Second Round win.

The quality should be on the side of Thiem and his younger legs should respond to being at home and trying to win another title. Montanes has been very good this week, but he has taken some heavy losses prior to the week and I think Thiem is too good for him in this Quarter Final.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Misaki Doi: Coming back from a long lay off on the Tour is difficult as Andy Murray found out to his cost on Wednesday, but I expect better from Agnieszka Radwanska. She faces Misaki Doi who looks to be a very good match up for her in her return to the Tour and I do think Radwanska wins with something to spare.

One concern would be the confidence that Doi has picked up from three consecutive wins in Stanford, but when she loses, she does tend to lose comfortably. That might be because Doi doesn't have a serve that can give her too many cheap points and the best players on Tour would expect to out-rally her when those points develop.

Since the beginning of the 2015 season, Doi has lost five matches on the hard courts and they have come by margins of 7, 6, 4, 6, 9 games each. Radwanska might not have had the best of years by her high standard, but the run to the Semi Final at Wimbledon might have sparked her and I expect a couple of decent runs during this hard court North American swing.

I think she will outwork Doi in the rallies and is happy enough to be out on court all day if she needs to and I expect Radwanska to win this 64, 62 once she gets settled back on the hard courts.


Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 games v Kimiko Date-Krumm: Another player who is making a long awaited return to the Tour is Karolina Pliskova who decided to skip events between Wimbledon and her return to Stanford. That is the biggest concern in wondering if she can get off to a flyer, but the match up with Kimiko Date-Krumm gives her every chance to do so.

The veteran had to dig incredibly deep to come through the First Round here against Sabine Lisicki and you have to think that has taken something out of the tank. Date-Krumm was 61, 41 down in that match, but turned it around to win in three sets and I think Pliskova may have a chance to pick her off in this match.

A lay off can cause problems in terms of rhythm and that would be my biggest concern for Pliskova who did crush Kimiko Date-Krumm for the loss of just four games here last year. However, that came after she had played a couple of other tournaments between Wimbledon and Stanford so I think this will be closer, although Pliskova should have the quality to overcome her opponent.

It might take a set to get used to being back in a competitive setting, but I then expect Pliskova to pull clear in a 64, 62 win.


Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Leonardo Mayer: After a difficult first set which Kei Nishikori dropped in the Second Round, he got back to form and moved into the Third Round relatively comfortably. After a strong run at the US Open last year when reaching the Final, Nishikori might have bigger expectations over the next six weeks than he did twelve months ago and he will expect to win the title in Washington.

His next opponent won't be easy to overcome as Leonardo Mayer has put together another solid season and looks set to surpass his career best number of wins in a single season. Mayer has a decent serve which will give Nishikori something to think about, but the latter has found a way to neutralise that in their previous matches and eventually crack through.

Nishikori has now won all six sets against Mayer and he hasn't lost more than four games in any of the last five sets after the first one they played went to a tie-breaker. Last year in New York, Nishikori beat Mayer 64, 62, 63 in the Third Round and he has the returning ability to break the Argentinian down again.

Leonardo Mayer is playing his first tournament since Davis Cup action in early July and struggled in the Second Round match which he won in three tight sets. His physical strength will be tested through this match and I expect Nishikori to eventually wear him down in a 63, 64 win.


Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 games v Steve Johnson: Steve Johnson fans might be happy I am opposing their man again in the Third Round considering he has produced his best tennis in the last couple of months when I have been backing his opponent. However, I think Grigor Dimitrov is capable of seeing off the American who I simply doubt can serve as effectively as he did in his Second Round win over Bernard Tomic.

I will say I have been impressed with Johnson's performances with some more consistency in his wins, but he has also produced some really bad stuff. Losses to Tatsuma Ito and Ricardis Berankis would have been seriously unexpected and I do think Johnson is someone who can throw in a real wobbly performance.

My concern for Grigor Dimitrov is how he is going to react to his break up with Maria Sharapova and whether 2015 is already something of a write off for him. Too many poor losses and not enough deep runs in big events has to be a real disappointment for a talented player and this is likely going to be the lowest number of wins in a single season since 2012 as he is nowhere near the 45 wins he achieved in 2014.

Dimitrov did beat Johnson in straight sets at Wimbledon and I think he is the better player who will have been given a boost by his Second Round win. He has to serve well to keep some pressure on Johnson and I do think Dimitrov is able to get more joy from the return games than Tomic did as he works his way throygh to a 76, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dusan Lajovic + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-8, - 10.16 Units (22 Units Staked, - 46.18% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2014 (July 28th)

It wasn't the best of weeks for the picks last week, but the John Isner win in Atlanta at least reduced some of the losses... However, I much prefer when a little is put into the season totals not taking some out of those and I will be looking for improved results this week.

I didn't bother with the outright picks this week with both the ATP events looking far more open than I would like, while the WTA events are bringing together some of the best players on their Tour. However, a lot of those players haven't played much, or at all, since Wimbledon so it is better to take a watching brief for the tournaments as a whole.

Next week will be the first of the two Masters/Premier Events of the summer leading into US Open which is now only four weeks away. That means the likes of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer, Andy Murray and Maria Sharapova all will be making their return to the Tour after a few weeks off and the events will certainly begin to feel more and more important.


Most people will have turned their attention to the hard court season already with events in Washington and Stanford this week, although some players are just trying to pick up a few more Ranking points by competing in the ATP event in Kitzbuhel, the final clay court event of the season.

I'll be hoping the new game this week brings in more success than last week.


Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Kimiko Date-Krumm: This summer, we have seen a number of teenagers on the ATP Tour really begin to make an impact in main Tour events, but the WTA still has a 43 year old competing with all the younger players on their Tour.

Kimiko Date-Krumm has begun to slip down the Rankings and it is getting harder and harder for her to hold off the tide of younger players that are making an impact on the WTA Tour. It is tough to see how she will deal with Karolina Pliskova who is much improved from the player that was beaten in three sets by Date-Krumm two years ago in Dubai.

Pliskova can make a real move up the Rankings over the next few weeks with limited points to defend and she has been performing well on the hard courts this season. She also has more competitive tennis recently than Date-Krumm who hasn't played since Wimbledon and back to back Quarter Finals since the third Slam of the year should have given Pliskova confidence.

My only concern for her is that she can be a little erratic and doesn't change a losing game plan, but I do think she can find the win in this one, even if it takes three sets, and I like Pliskova winning 62, 46, 64.


Caroline Garcia v Varvara Lepchenko: I don't think I agree with Andy Murray in his forecast for Caroline Garcia to be a future World Number 1 on the WTA Tour, but she is certainly capable of moving far above her current Ranking of 44.

The Frenchwoman has shown some signs of being a top player on the Tour, but she is still lacking some consistency which shouldn't surprise considering she is still only 20 years old. She hasn't had the most success on the hard courts either, but I still believe Garcia can beat Varvara Lepchenko.

Lepchenko has struggled for the last eighteen months and it does seem her 2012 season might be a career-high. The worry for the American is the poor form on the hard courts, although Lepchenko did reach the Quarter Final in Stanford last season.

She has a powerful game, but inconsistencies have seen her throw in a lot of errors in matches and Garcia also holds a mental edge with two wins over Lepchenko on the main Tour. That includes last month at Wimbledon, and I think that edge may prove to be the difference in a three set win.

MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Final: 12-15, - 7.26 Units (54 Units Staked, - 13.44% Yield)
Weekly Outright: 1-1, + 4 Units (3 Units Staked, + 75% Yield)

Season 2014: + 48.58 Units (1185.5 Units Staked, + 4.10% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 27th)

After the shocking news about Victor Troicki yesterday, there are some reports today that suggest Marin Cilic is another player that has failed a random test, this time in Munich earlier this season. This news is still to be confirmed by the ITF so I am not going to say anything more about it until we have the full facts, but it should be enough to say I would be massively disappointed if this turns out to be the case.

Marin Cilic is certainly one of the players I enjoy watching on the Tour and it would be a real kick in the teeth if he is banned for doping. It would also raise a few more questions about the amount that tennis players are tested on the Tour with notable names like Novak Djokovic admitting he goes months without hearing the knock on the door.

With potentially two high profile cases, the random testing procedure will certainly be called into question going forward.


It was yet another very positive day for the picks on Friday, although I am writing this while the Santiago Giraldo-Ryan Harrison match is in the third set and Kevin Anderson-Denis Istomin is yet to begin. However, the earlier picks from the tournaments had mainly been successful to make this a very strong week already as we get to the Semi Final stage.

I will update the weekly totals from the last two picks once those matches have been concluded.


Victor Hanescu + 2.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: Both of the Semi Finals in Gstaad look like tight matches and I think taking the games in both will end up being the smart play in matches where the underdog has a real chance of winning outright.

The first of the Semi Finals is being contested by two players that will be well aware of what the other can bring to the table. Victor Hanescu and Mikhail Youzhny will be meeting for the ninth time on Tour and they have split the previous eight meetings at four apiece.

However, it is Hanescu who holds a 3-1 lead on the clay courts and that includes a surprise win over the Russian earlier this season. That match was closer than the straight sets win for Hanescu suggested, but he will feel he can back that up here with the conditions as they are in Gstaad.

The ball is moving pretty quickly with the altitude and that will only aid the Hanescu serve and Youzhny has spent a lot more time on the court this week with all three matches having to be decided in the final set. There is more than a little chance that Hanescu will win at least one set and that could give him a strong chance to cover this small spread even if he doesn't quite pull out the win.


Robin Haase + 2.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: Feliciano Lopez crushed Robin Haase at the US Open last year in their last meeting, but I do think Robin Haase is capable of keeping this match close and has a real chance of actually winning the match.

The clay courts are where Haase will certainly feel at his most comfortable and he too has a decent serve and heavy groundstrokes that can take advantage of the faster conditions here in Gstaad.

He will likely have to serve well as Lopez has been serving effectively for much of the week and has been particularly tough on any break points he has faced.

The match has a feeling of being one that could go the entire way to a three set encounter and Haase has every chance to win the match. As long as he doesn't crumble in a manner that the Dutchman can sometimes do, a set should be enough for him to put himself in a position to cover the spread even if Haase doesn't win the match.


Gael Monfils + 2.5 games v Fabio Fognini: The most in-form player on the Tour is a couple wins away from taking away three titles in back to back to back weeks, but this could be the toughest test for Fabio Fognini to overcome.

Fognini has been playing some very good tennis for the last month and he hasn't just been winning matches, but winning fairly comfortably for the most part. He has only dropped a couple of sets during his 12 match winning run and this week he has continued to look impressive.

His return of serve has been very effective and he is putting opponents under a lot of pressure, so much so that his own serve has been well protected for the most part.

However, Gael Monfils is a player that can force a lot of mistakes from his opponents and he can certainly grind some mistakes out of the Italian, while his first serve can be effective enough to set up points. It was that first serve that set up Monfils' win over Fognini in Nice earlier this season on the clay and I believe this could be a tight three setter which may allow the Frenchman to cover the spread even if he loses.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: Kevin Anderson came through a tough Quarter Final last night and I would expect him to serve a little more effectively in this match than he did yesterday.

His first serve percentage was too low and that kept him under a little bit of pressure on serve, but I expect him to have a little more success in this match.

Ryan Harrison hasn't had  a great season, but he came through a tough match yesterday to reach the Semi Final here in Atlanta for the second time in three seasons. He does look a little short of confidence and that could be seen in his play when he was over-reliant on the high, looping ball and that will be punished by a big hitter like Anderson.

The American does have a decent serve, but it is one that Anderson could get his teeth into and I like the Number 2 seed in Atlanta to win this one 64, 64.


Jamie Hampton + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: I believe that Jamie Hampton can certainly make an impact on the WTA Tour now that her injuries have cleared up and she is going to be moving up the Rankings with a real chance to be seeded at the US Open.

Hampton can be aggressive on return of serve and that will be aided by the faster courts that are preferred in North America. She can certainly get involved in the Agnieszka Radwanska service games, while Hampton possesses a decent serve that could cause her higher Ranked opponent some problems.

My biggest concern is that I have sometimes seen Hampton collapse in a set and that could help her Polish opponent cover the spread even if this goes into a third set. However, I think there is some upside to the Hampton game and I do think she can force a decider and hopefully will do so and cover the spread even if she doesn't quite spring the surprise win.


MY PICKS: Victor Hanescu + 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jamie Hampton + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-11, + 9.86 Units (52 Units Staked, + 18.96% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2013 (July 25th)

It was almost a perfect day for the picks on Wednesday as five of the six came through and the only one that didn't was Stanislas Wawrinka to cover the spread despite getting into a 75, 40 position in the match.

That puts the picks into the positive for the week, while the two outright picks from this week will be opening their tournaments on Thursday, which is remarkably late for a tournament that began on Monday. With a little luck, the momentum from Wednesday will hopefully ride through for the rest of the week and these are the picks for Thursday.


Marcel Granollers v Federico Delbonis: I have been impressed with the way that Federico Delbonis has performed in the last ten days and he was just one point away, on three occasions, from picking up the title at the ATP 500 event in Hamburg last week. He beat Roger Federer during his run to the Final, but it will be interesting to see if he can maintain the form that has helped him on this run of form.

It won't be easy against Marcel Granollers who is comfortable, as any Spaniard is, on the clay courts and one who has picked up a couple of wins in the last couple of weeks that may rebuild a confidence that had to be a little shot after four straight losses.

Both players will be relying on a first serve to set up the easier points in this contest and whoever can do that best will likely win the match. However, I do think Delbonis has had a lot of tennis under his legs in the last few days and I also feel he could be a touch overrated due to his accomplishments last week.

While Delbonis has the making of a very good clay courter, defeats to the likes of Somdev Devvarman, Dustin Brown, Joao Souza and Aljaz Bedene on the surface this season suggests he is not quite there yet.

Granollers has generally lost to only the best players on the clay this season and I believe he can win this pick 'em contest, even if it takes three sets to do so.


Victor Hanescu v Roberto Bautista-Agut: This is virtually another pick 'em contest, but I am surprised to see Victor Hanescu set as the underdog in this one.

Both players have enjoyed successes on the clay courts at the Challenger level in the last twelve months so it is clear that both are comfortable with the red dirt underneath their feet.

Why do I think Hanescu can win this match? I believe Hanescu has the better first serve which will lead to more opportunities to win cheap points and Roberto Bautista-Agut can be a little more erratic of the two when it comes to groundstrokes.

Neither player can really claim to have had sustained success on the clay courts at ATP level, although both have winning records. Hanescu has a couple of Quarter Finals and a Semi Final to his name, while Bautista-Agut has a Semi Final too.

I just feel the reasons I mentioned will give the Romanian a slight edge in what could be yet another three setter, but this time the underdog in the close market will come through in my opinion.


Robin Haase + 2.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: One of the more disappointing players on the Tour this season is Janko Tipsarevic who has dropped out of the top 10 and is now struggling to hold on to a place in the top 20.

After back to back 53 win seasons on the Tour, the Serb is only 14-14 this season and confidence can't be high. Personally, I would question who helps schedule his tournaments too as Tipsarevic is coming from a hard court event in Colombia, meaning he has gone from clay to grass to hard and now back to clay ahead of the two Masters tournaments in North America.

All of that travelling crossing time zones and having to get accustomed to yet another surface change can't be ideal preparation, while he is playing an opponent that would likely call clay his favourite surface.

Robin Haase isn't the most trustworthy player on the Tour simply because his play can be so erratic and there is every chance he drops a set with a couple of breaks of serve being given up. However, he at least has spent the last few weeks on the surface and I expect he will find a way to steal a set, which could be enough to at least get within the spread even if he loses the match.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Daniel Brands: A brand new racquet, but another tournament disappointment for Roger Federer was the story of Hamburg last week, but the former World Number 1 is very comfortable with where his game is at the moment.

It is becoming a real risk in backing Federer to cover spreads as his serve is certainly not as effective as it was in his prime and he is a little more erratic off the ground with too many unforced errors.

However, he saw the Daniel Brands game last week when he had to come from a set down to move through that match and I believe seeing what the German can do will certainly help Federer overcome him this time around with a little more ease.

There is no doubt that Brands' style can make him a very dangerous opponent as he proved when taking Rafael Nadal to four sets at Roland Garros. However, Brands can also be a little mentally weak at times and crumble in matches when the chips are down and I expect Federer to find a way to come through with a 64, 63 win.


Tommy Robredo - 3.5 games v Victor Troicki: After three defeats in a row, Tommy Robredo will be glad to have got through his First Round match against Jan Hajek and I think he has a strong chance to move through to the Quarter Final with a win over Victor Troicki.

I do think Robredo is the better clay court player of the two and I think he can outlast Troicki more often than not in this match.

The Serb had a poor 2012 season, but he is definitely having a better year this time around and he has had a few solid runs on the clay courts this season, including reaching a number of Quarter Finals and also the Fourth Round in Paris.

However, I think Troicki will find it more difficult against a player that is willing to stay out there all day and his consistency could be tested. The second serve Troicki possesses can be attacked and that is where I think Robredo will find the success to lead to a 64, 64 win.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: Umag has been a good venue for Alexandr Dolgopolov as a former winner here and also reaching the Semi Final last year. While he is an inconsistent player that has all the shots needed to become a real force in the game, I expect Dolgopolov will be a touch too strong for Aljaz Bedene.

Bedene did come through a First Round match earlier this week, but I don't like players making a number of switches in surface in a short period and that is what the Slovakian has done with a return from Bogota where he played on the hard courts last week.

However, Bedene has had success on the clay courts in the past, especially at the level below the main ATP tournaments so this will be a tough test for Dolgopolov. The Ukrainian will need to serve well if he is to come through and I am hoping some of his erratic play is left in the locker room in this one.

Dolgopolov can be aggressive on return and I think he can pull away after a tight first set and record a 76, 63 win.


Denis Istomin - 2.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: I picked Denis Istomin to come through fairly comfortably in the First Round against Lukas Lacko and I believe he will be able to come through against Yen-Hsun Lu in this Second Round contest.

I think it would be wrong to underestimate Lu, a player that has a decent serve and can play a lot of flashy winners and make it tough to go against him. He won a Challenger in Beijing a couple of weeks ago on the hard courts  and he has always had the majority of his success on the hard courts.

I expect both players to go through periods of this match where they are holding serve comfortably, but I also think Istomin has a little more toughness about him on the hard courts. I think one set is very likely to be decided on a tie-break, but Istomin will likely have the more chances to break serve of the two players.

Istomin may end up sneaking one of those chances and helping himself to a place in the Quarter Final after a 76, 64 win.


Santiago Giraldo v Michael Russell: Michael Russell toughed out a First Round win over the returning Mardy Fish in rain delayed contest that was concluded last night, but I think he will find it a little too hard to back that up against Santiago Giraldo.

I still remember the way Giraldo announced himself on the Tour with a dismantling of Juan Carlos Ferrero on the clay courts of Rome as he overpowered the Spaniard with a range of big winners, but Giraldo hasn't really reached those levels again.

However, he still has a pretty big game and will be a hard task for Russell as long as he isn't making a raft of unforced errors. Mighty Mike also has a decent serve and a game that is tailored to the hard courts and he continues to find success at Challenger level on the surface.

Unfortunately, it is becoming more difficult for Russell to convert that form to the main ATP level and I think that will be the case again in this Second Round match. The first set could very much be decided on a tie-break and I think if Giraldo can win that, he should be able to come through with a little more ease in the second.


Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games v Stefanie Voegele: It can be hard to get a feel of what a player is feeling when they have been off the Tour for a little under a month, but that is the case for Dominika Cibulkova in this Second Round match.

I do think Cibulkova has a decent game and she has a lot more power than you would expect from a girl that isn't one of the taller players on Tour. She is a solid hard court player as she is able to hit through her opponents, although consistency can be a problem and has also prevented Cibulkova from actually breaking the top 10 and maintaining a spot there.

Stafanie Voegele has become more settled on the main WTA Tour this season, but she hasn't had a great time on the hard courts despite the win in the First Round. Her serve can be attacked and that is where I believe Cibulkova will have the success to come through and also cover this spread.


MY PICKS: Marcel Granollers @ 1,85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Victor Hanescu @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Haase + 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Robredo - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Denis Istomin - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-5, + 4.52 Units (26 Units Staked, + 17.38% Yield)

Tennis Picks July 13th

It was a miserable start to the week yesterday as all four picks made failed to make the grade. There were some bad luck attached to some of the failures, but that's the way it goes sometimes and you have to take the rough with the smooth.

While those picks failed to get anything going, at least Juan Monaco and Marin Cilic made it through to the Quarter Finals in their respective tournaments.

With many of the tournaments still waiting to ensure all their Quarter Finalists are settled, it does mean the choices for the day's play have not been given to us just yet so I will be making the picks, if any, in the morning.


Irina-Camelia Begu - 4.5 games v Estrella Cabeza-Candela: This is a big match for two girls that will feel they can have a real breakthrough week on the Main Tour with a Semi Final place up for the winner.

Estrella Cabeza-Candela had to qualify for the tournament in Palermo, but she has done very well to get to this stage, although the match up against Irina-Camelia Begu is not the best for her. Begu is beginning to make a real move up the Rankings, although she has struggled for consistency over the last couple of months.

The clay courts remain Begu's biggest opportunity for success as she hopes to replicate the form she showed after Wimbledon last year. At that time, Begu was a Runner Up and a Quarter Finalist at her next two tournaments on the clay, and that is what she will look to replicate here.

Cabeza-Candela has performed well whenever she has reached the Main Tour this season, but the majority of her work remains on the Challenger Tour. However, she has a couple of Quarter Final appearances to her name on the Main Tour over the last 12 months, although always finding someone too strong at that stage.

These two met twice last year with Begu winning both matches on clay courts. In each of those matches, Begu won one set with a bagel and she also won all the sets they have competed against one another. I will look for her to continue that form here and book a Semi Final place with a bit of ease.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: Alexandr Dolgopolov was the beneficiary of a bad line call in his win over Fabio Fognini which allowed him to move through to this match with a bit of ease, despite a couple of wobbles down the stretch. The Ukrainian has been struggling for form over the last couple of months, but he does have good memories of this tournament as the defending Champion and clearly is at ease in his surroundings.

Dolgopolov meets Carlos Berlocq in this Quarter Final who has lost 6 of his last 7 matches before winning in the first two Rounds here. The Argentine is far behind the form that took him to Finals and Quarter Final appearances earlier in the season and this is the furthest he has got in a tournament since reaching the same stage in Houston back in April.

While Dolgopolov is a little more erratic in his play, I think he is going to be a little too strong for Berlocq who is not playing at a great level and has taken advantage of a kind draw so far.

They have also met three times since the beginning of last season and it is Dolgopolov who leads 2-1, including a straight sets win on a clay court.

This might be close, but a 6-4, 6-4 win for Dolgopolov could be the outcome in my opinion.


Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games v Sorana Cirstea: Dominika Cibulkova is one of the toughest players to read on the Tour, although she does strike me as one who plays behind her confidence- for example, if she has a close record against someone, or she has played tough matches against someone, I think Cibulkova will play them tough every time.

This is the case today as she plays against Sorana Cirstea, a player she has comfortably beaten in both their previous matches, including for the loss of just two games earlier this season in Barcelona.

Cirstea started the season with a great win over Sam Stosur in the Australian Open, but she has failed to reach those heights consistently and I think that will be her problem against a player like Cibulkova that can cover the court effectively.

I think Cibulkova will likely get a break more in each set than Cirstea and that should see her through to the cover here.


MY PICKS: Irina-Camelia Begu - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 3.5 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 0-4, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked)

Tennis Picks July 12th

I have held off making any picks at the start of the week as I wasn't sure of some of the players motivation and the fact that a few of the bigger names that have appeared may just have been focusing on the Olympics.

There have been some really surprising results already, while the number of players that have lost from winning positions have been higher than usual. I know there are a lot of people out there that can be sceptical when things like that happen, but tennis is such a momentum sport that a player can lose a number of points in a row, particularly those who just aren't as good as the top players and therefore don't have the consistency to regain momentum that is lost.

The tournaments at Newport and Stanford release their order of plays much later than the European tournaments so I will have a look at those during the day and see if there are any picks I want to make from those events.

The outright picks I have made has seen one player progress through to the Quarter Finals in Marin Cilic, one player yet to start his tournament in Juan Monaco, and one exiting in the form of Sam Querrey.


Fabio Fognini v Alexandr Dolgopolov: I am taking the underdog Italian to win this match, despite not being his biggest fan as he can mentally check out of matches when they are not going his way. However, Fabio Fognini has shown more commitment to the cause this season, even if results remain hit and miss.

Alexandr Dolgopolov has not been in a good run of form recently and you have to expect confidence will at least be a little low after losing 5 of his last 6 matches going back to Madrid.

The Ukrainian is actually the defending Champion here, but it does look like he is an uneasy favourite considering where his confidence is likely to be and that is why I think Fognini as the underdog has to be the call here.

They are 1-1 in the head to head against one another, but it was Fognini that won their only meeting on a clay court and he looks a live dog in this one.


Alessandro Giannessi v Daniel Gimeno-Traver: I am taking another Italian who is the dog in this match as I back Alessandro Giannessi to surprise Daniel Gimeno-Traver in Sweden.

Gimeno-Traver was almost handed the match by Mikhail Kukushkin in the last Round and I think the Spaniard is very fortunate to still be in the tournament. That was only the second win on the main tour on the clay courts for Gimeno-Traver from 8 matches played this season.

Giannessi has been playing the majority of his matches on the Challenger tour, but he has already won four matches here as he qualified for the event so the conditions should hold no fear for him. The young Italian has also won both matches against Gimeno-Traver in the past and he looks worth chancing to add to that here.


Lleyton Hewitt to win 2-1 v Dudi Sela: It is clear that Lleyton Hewitt is not the same player that previously won Grand Slam titles, but the desire is still there for him to improve his Ranking and get back into a position where he can qualify for some of the biggest events on the calender without needing a Wild Card as he has here.

Hewitt has remained on the grass in preparation for Wimbledon and his two wins in Newport are the first he has had on the Main Tour since the Australian Open back in January (granted that is mainly down to injuries, but he had lost all three matches he has played since returning at the French Open).

The match up against Dudi Sela does present Hewitt a real chance to get through to the Semi Final here as he has won all three matches against the Israeli. Sela is a similar kind of player that will look to grind out a win, just as Hewitt does, and he is playing well enough here to think he can at least win a set.

That is something Sela has done the last two times he has played Hewitt and I would not be surprised if this is another one that will go the distance. I just think the Australian will do enough to gut out a win and so taking this for a small interest looks the call.


Marina Erakovic v Urszula Radwanska: I am not entirely sure why Marina Erakovic is the underdog in this match, even if Urszula Radwanska has been playing some better tennis recently.

Erakovic actually beat Radwanska a couple of weeks ago in the First Round at Wimbledon in straight sets and she has had success here at Stanford in the past after reaching the Quarter Final last season, including beating Victoria Azarenka as a big underdog.

Radwanska has struggled to get into the limelight that is occupied by her big sister Agnieszka and she hasn't had a winning record on the Main Tour over the last five seasons. The Pole has struggled on the hard courts this season, although she did come through a tough examination in the First Round.

I just feel Erakovic does have the capabilities to be more consistent and hit through Radwanska in this match up and I am, as I said, a little surprised that the New Zealand player is the underdog. I'll have a small play on her getting through to another Quarter Final here.


MY PICKS: Fabio Fognini @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Alessandro Giannessi @ 2.25 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Lleyton Hewitt win 2-1 @ 4.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Marina Erakovic @ 2.10 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

College Football Week 3 Picks and Previews

It's been a good couple of weeks for me in the College Football picks, but do not make the mistake that the picks I make are 100% guarantees because there is NO SUCH THING in the world of sports.

A turnover, a missed field goal and sometimes even a missed extra point can be the difference between success and failure so while it has been a good start, I do need to keep my research going and trying to pick the best action from the week.

Below I have my picks and full previews of the game I will be backing this week and hopefully they will make sure we can continue making profit through Week 3:

Boise State Broncos @ Toledo Rockets (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11627-Toledo-Rockets-v-Boise-State-Broncos.htm)

Stanford Cardinal @ Arizona Wildcats (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11628-Arizona-Wildcats-v-Stanford-Cardinal.htm)

Northern Illinois Huskies v Wisconsin Badgers (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11629-Northern-Illinois-v-Wisconsin-Badgers.htm)

Tennessee Volunteers @ Florida Gators (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11632-Florida-Gators-v-Tennessee-Volunteers.htm)

Nevada Wolfpack @ San Jose State Spartans (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11634-San-Jose-State-v-Nevada-Wolfpack.htm)

Houston Cougars @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11635-Louisiana-Tech-v-Houston-Cougars.htm)


These picks are my views of how the game will go and just remember the key is to reach a 55-57% strike rate to ensure profit for the year. By opening the links, you will able to see my reasons for the picks in the 'prediction' section and why I have picked who I have.


MY PICKS: Boise State Broncos - 19 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 16.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Nevada Wolfpack - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs + 7 Points @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


WEEK 2: 3-0, + 2.82 Units
WEEK 1: 4-0, + 3.74 Units


SEASON UPDATE: 7-0, + 6.56 Units

Tennis Profit/Loss Update July 26th-31st

It was a tough week all round when looking back, but I have come out the other side in a much better position than I feared I might be after some horrendous results.

I was a little unlucky to miss out on Juan Carlos Ferrero reaching the Final in Umag when he ran into Alexandr Dolgopolov playing some of the best tennis he can. Dolgopolov has a game where the everything is on his racquet and he was just not making any mistakes yesterday while hitting winners from all over the place.

Victoria Azarenka and Dmitry Tursunov were early losers in their respective tournaments while Juan Martin Del Potro was shocked in the Quarter Final by Ernests Gulbis, with the latter taking his place in the Final later.

The overall profit for the season is still in a very healthy position as we come closer to the 2 big Masters tournaments in Montreal and Cincinnati. And then, at the end of the month, the final Grand Slam of the season will begin at Flushing Meadows.

DAILY PICKS: + 1.06 Units


OUTRIGHT PICKS: - 10 Units


OVERALL WEEK JULY 26th-31st: - 8.94 Units


OVERALL SEASON UPDATE: + 54.12 Units

Tennis Picks July 29th Stanford and LA

Please dont ask me what went wrong with Alejandro Falla last night because I was left scratching my head at his performance and am not sure whether it was down to Falla being terrible or Thomaz Bellucci playing well.

That means I will be taking a watching brief when Bellucci takes on Alex Bogomolov tonight to see where the Brazilian, who has struggled on the hard courts over the last 18 months, is with his game.

It was more doom and gloom for me when Victoria Azarenka lost from a set up in her 2nd Round match with Marina Erakovic- Azarenka took to her twitter page to say that she doesn't know what went wrong with her game.

Now on to the Picks:

Maria Sharapova vs Serena Williams: I have picked the form player here as she is the underdog and I am not quite sure if Serena Williams is back to her best after being taken to 3 sets yesterday by Maria Kirilenko.

Serena has played in Stanford twice before and it is telling that she is yet to go beyond the Semi Final so the tournament is clearly used to perhaps fine tune her game a little before the US Open at the end of next month.

On the other hand, Maria Sharapova was the Runner Up here last year and has played plenty more tennis than Williams in the last 12 months while reaching the Semi Final at the French Open and finishing as Runner Up at Wimbledon in the last 3 months.

The head to head is clearly in favour of Serena Williams, but I just think the lack of tennis and the fact Sharapova has been playing well makes it hard for me to see the Russian as the underdog here.


Ryan Harrison vs Yen-Hsun Lu: I am going to take the American youngster who is playing the best tennis of his career so far to come through and reach another Semi Final on the ATP tour following his efforts in Atlanta last week.

I think the prices are a little closer than they may have been because of Yen-Hsun Lu's impressive win over Marcos Baghdatis, but you could excuse Baghdatis for a lack of tennis and already having a tough time on the hard courts this season. The fact Lu had played in Atlanta last week was also an advantage.

Harrison has looked good this week, and showed glimpses of some real talent last week while I havent quite shaken the belief that Lu is on the other side of the hill and coming down the rankings.


MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova @ 2.35 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 4.18 Units

Tennis Picks July 28th Stanford and LA

It was a much better day yesterday all round from the West Coast of America as the picks went 3-1 and Juan Martin Del Potro moved through to the Quarter Finals without too many problems.

Del Potro will face Ernests Gulbis in the next Round and holds a 3-0 head to head record against him and looks good to reach the Final and keep the outright pick from this tournament intact.

It looks like a much tougher day to predict today and I will only go with the one pick:

Alejandro Falla vs Thomaz Bellucci: It seems strange to pick a player who is just ranked in the top 100 to beat another who is just outside the top 30, but that is the one and only pick from these two tournaments today.

Alejandro Falla has not been in great form recently but already has one hard court match under his belt this week and that could stand him in good stead. The Colombian also reached the Quarter Final at Delray Beach earlier this season before running into Mardy Fish and did start the hard court Summer swing in good fashion last year when reaching the Quarter Final of this tournament.

That achievement also came after a bad run of form when he had lost 4 matches in a row and included a decent win over Ernests Gulbis.

Thomaz Bellucci's success comes on the clay courts and his game has not transferred to the faster courts as well as it perhaps should have. He has a decent serve and being left handed should have given him an edge, but he seems to struggle for consistency and judging the speed of the ball.

He lost early in Miami and Indian Wells this season and has a 4-4 record on the hard courts.

The Brazilian Number 1 was just 2-4 during the hard court Summer swing last season and I just think he could have a tough time again tonight in his first match since winning his Davis Cup tie the week after Wimbledon.

The players have a 1-1 head to head record, with Falla's victory coming in Indianapolis in 2008 during the US Open Series.


MY PICKS: Alejandro Falla @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 2.18 Units

Tennis Picks July 27th Stanford and LA

Not a good start to the week in all honesty, with picks falling by the wayside and some results being disappointingly close to going my way and then falling apart.

I took the morning in Europe off as I didn't have any strong feelings from the matches at Gstaad, while I left Juan Carlos Ferrero alone in Umag in the hope my outright pick can win his match with Ivan Ljubicic and really open up the draw for a run to the Final for a 3rd consecutive year.

Hopefully the extra time to compose myself will make the next couple of picks from Stanford and LA end in a much more positive manner than they have been so far:

Double; Dominika Cibulkova vs Christina McHale and Maria Sharapova vs Daniela Hantuchova: Dominika Cibulkova is having a good season and could see herself making a real move up the rankings after a very disappointing Summer last season. She had a solid win over Kimiko Date-Krumm in the 1st Round and has the powerful game that should be well suited to the American hard courts.

Christina McHale is a tough proposition as she begins to improve her game but she has only won consecutive matches on the main tour on 2 occasions this season and was a 2nd Round loser here in Stanford last season.

Maria Sharapova has won 7 matches in a row against Daniela Hantuchova and has been one of the form players on the WTA Tour for around 3 months now. Hantuchova is no easy pass for the top players this season, but I expect Sharapova will eventually have too much for her counterpart and come through.


Double; Ryan Harrison vs Michael Russell and Ernests Gulbis vs Daniel Kosakowski: Ryan Harrison has been in fine form over the last 10 days, reaching the Final in Atlanta and coming from a set behind to beat Richard Berankis in the 1st Round here and is now becoming more comfortable in main tour matches.

Michael Russell is perhaps on the other side of the hill to Harrison now and has lost the last meeting with his young compratiot, a 3 set defeat on the hard courts in Hawaii. The match tonight may also go the distance but I will expect the younger man to get through.

Ernests Gulbis should have too much experience and talent for Daniel Kosakowski, a young UCLA attendee, although it can be risky backing the talented Latvian at a short price.

However, he should have the consistency to get through, most likely in straight sets.


Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Marcos Baghdatis has not had the best time on the American hard courts so far this season with two 1st Round losses at Miami and Indian Wells, but last Summer was a different story as he got through to the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Cincinnati.

He has the game very suited to the faster surfaces and he has played well in recent weeks. He should have too much for Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has struggled a little bit this season.

Lu was destroyed by John Isner last week in Atlanta and, although having a good win over Robby Ginepri in the last Round, he has struggled for most of the season.

Baghdatis has won their only previous meeting in 2009, but I think Lu has slipped a little since then and the Cypriot should be good enough to come through.


James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 games: Juan Martin Del Potro is my outright pick of the week from this tournament but he wont have it easy against a rejuvenated James Blake that performed solidly in Atlanta last week following on from a Challenger tour win.

Blake and Del Potro also took part in a 5 set match in Australia last year and this is a pick that can be brought in with a straight sets win as long as the sets are tight.

They key to the pick may well be how James Blake serves- if he can perform as he has been, it is possible that we can see at least 1 tie break here and that may be just enough to ensure the over comes in.


MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova and Maria Sharapova @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison and Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)




WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units


WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 6 Units

Tennis Picks July 26th Stanford and LA

Not a good start to the week as Somdev Devvarman somehow managed to lose in straight sets to Ryan Sweeting in perhaps the worst match I have seen since watching a couple of old guys go at it in the local park.

Neither player deserved to win the match and it was just a huge error-fest.

It didnt get much better as my first outright pick, albeit the one with the lowest stakes attached, went out last night as Dmitry Tursunov fell in 3 sets to Michael Russell.

Hopefully today will bring a brighter set of fortunes:


Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games vs Ayumi Morita: Both of these ladies will be playing their first match since Wimbledon, but Ivanovic has to be favoured to come through the contest thanks to a much stronger hard court pedigree.

The former World Number 1 has reached the 4th Round in Miami this year as well as the Quarter Final in Indian Wells and her power game may just be too much for Morita here.

Morita has reached a Quarter Final on the hard courts this season, but was beaten comfortably here in Stanford last year by Victoria Azarenka and she has had early exits in the bigger events on the hard courts.

Ivanovic has thumped Morita in their only previous meeting and I think she will come through 6-2, 6-4 tonight.


Double; Tim Smyczek vs Daniel Kosakowski and James Blake vs Michael Berrer: This is a double from the LA Open and I think both favourites should be good enough to come through their matches.

Tim Smyczek faces a young prospect that currently attends UCLA that should get plenty of support from the locals in his first ever main ATP match. The experience of Smyczek should see him through the contest, especially considering he beat Kosakowski in a qualifying round at Indian Wells earlier this season.

James Blake has been playing well of late and was unfortunate to lose to John Isner in 3 tight sets last week in Atlanta. He faces Michael Berrer, a player with a decent serve but fairly limited otherwise and I would expect the American to move on to a big 2nd Round match with Juan Martin Del Potro.


MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Double; Tim Smyczek and James Blake @ 1.89 Pinnacle (2 Units)


EEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units

Tennis Outright Picks July 25th-31st

We have a number of tournaments running this week, with the final few clay court events in Europe until after the US Open and also the continuation of the hard court swing in Los Angeles.

The WTA Tour also has one of the most popular tournaments on their run up to the US Open starting this week in Stanford and there are a lot of big names involved there.

Hopefully I can identify some players that can enjoy strong weeks and build on the successes of last week.


ATP Umag
This tournament does not have the biggest names on the tour taking part and that is highlighted as the highest seeded player in the draw is ranked outside the top 20 in the World Rankings.

The top seed is Juan Ignacio Chela but the Argentine has not been in the best of form and was a surprise early loser in Hamburg last week. The top half is also looking like the tougher half of the draw and the favourite to come out of it is Marin Cilic.

Cilic was my outright pick last week in Hamburg and gave us a run for our money but I dont think it is correct that he is as short as 3.75 to win the tournament this week. He has been given a favourable draw this week and is unlikely to be pushed before the Semi Finals as well as receiving the support of the home crowd.

There were still some serious issues with the serve that need to be resolved last week and he was pushed to 3 sets by the likes of Bastian Knittel and Tobias Kamke so I dont think he should be as short as he is to win this tournament. Croatian players have also struggled in here recent seasons and Ivan Ljubicic's Quarter Final appearance last year is their best effort for some time.

Potito Starace could make his presence felt this week in the top half after reaching the Final here last season, while his fellow Italian Fabio Fognini may be able to take advantage of a kind looking draw.

However, I have too many question marks on players in the top half of the draw so instead will focus my attention on the bottom half.

The highest seeded players in this section are Ivan Ljubicic and Alexandr Dolgopolov, but I have reservations on both of them. As I mentioned before, Ljubicic and his Croatian contingent have not really enjoyed much success at this tournament, particularly when you compare it to Zagreb earlier in the year, while Dolgopolov has been struggling for form and clay is probably not the surface where he can do most damage.

The one player that really appeals to me in this section is Juan Carlos Ferrero- the Spaniard recently won the tournament in Stuttgart on clay and has an extremely strong record at this event, winning last season and finishing as Runner Up the year before that.

Spaniards have also had a good record here in the past, particularly Carlos Moya who seemed to win the tournament every season and the draw could really open up for Ferrero if he hits the ground running.

The biggest obstacle on a run to the Final looks to be a potential 2nd Round meeting with Ivan Ljubicic if Ferrero gets past Maximo Gonzalez in the 1st Round as I feel he should.

Ferrero is down 2-3 in the head to head with Ljubicic, but he did win their last meeting at the French Open in 2009 and their previous meeting before that was in 2005. Ljubicic has made a couple of good runs on the clay this season but has struggled in this tournament in the past and I think Ferrero can go all the way to the Final if he wins this match.

A Quarter Final match against Tommy Robredo or Carlos Berlocq will not hold much fear for Ferrero and a Semi Final against the seeded Dolgopolov would be a rematch of their meeting from this tournament last year that Ferrero won for the loss of just 3 games.

All in all, I will take Ferrero with the belief he can beat Ljubicic in Round 2 and go on to his 3rd consecutive Final at this event.


ATP Los Angeles
The US hard court swing rolls onto the West Coast and there are some decent players taking part this season as preparation for the US Open continues.


The Number 1 seed at the event is Mardy Fish, but I will be interested to see if he has much in the tank at the moment after winning the event in Atlanta last week and having played the Davis Cup the week before. He also faces a tough looking match with Gilles Muller in Round 2 so I would not be that surprised if he is not quite focused on this week.


There are other tough looking matches in this section for Fish to negotiate if he wants to reach another Final on this hard court swing and instead I will look at which players could take advantage of a Fish slip.


The person I feel could benefit the most is the Number 6 seed this week, Dmitry Tursunov- the Russian is a former winner in Los Angeles and has finally got back to form on the tour and has the perfect game for the hard courts of North America.


A real problem for Tursunov could be a Quarter Final with Marcos Baghdatis although he does have a winning record against him and could have the game to upset the somewhat inconsistent Cypriot. Baghdatis has lost early at Indian Wells and Miami this season while being beaten in the Quarter Final here last season.


While Tursunov has lost all 5 meetings with Fish, if the American goes out early, there is a chance that he can get through to another Final here.


So I am going to have a small interest in Tursunov here, but the main player of interest is the Number 2 seed Juan Martin Del Potro, a player that is definitely going the right way since a wrist injury destroyed his 2010 season.


Del Potro is arguably in the weaker section of the draw and has been given a bye to the 2nd Round, meaning he will have to win just 4 matches if he wants to win the title he took on his only other appearance in 2008.


The Argentine will face a tough looking 2nd Round match with James Blake and then could face Xavier Malisse in the Quarter Final. He is then seeded to meet Thomaz Bellucci in the Semi Final and that does not look the most daunting of tasks to reach the Final here.


As a former winner of the event, Del Potro looks set to catch another title as he looks to secure a better position at the US Open.




WTA Stanford
This is one of those tournaments on the WTA where the majority of the top players do come and take part in- this week has proven to be no different.

The current favourite for the event is Maria Sharapova, one of the form players on the WTA tour and one who is looking to make amends after just falling short in the last 2 Grand Slams. It is telling of Sharapova's form that her defeats have come to the winner at both the French Open and Wimbledon and it isn't much of a surprise that she is considered the favourite for this event.

However, the draw has been far from kind- she will likely face Daniela Hantuchova in the 2nd Round and that is no gimme with the way Hantuchova had been playing through to Wimbledon.

Furthermore, there are some real dangers waiting further down the line for Sharapova with Serena Williams looking like a potential Quarter Final opponent and Sam Stosur a potential Semi Final opponent.

All in all, whoever comes through the bottom half of the draw is likely going to have to do it the hard way so I will instead focus on the top half for my pick.

To that end, the Number 1 seed and defending Champion Victoria Azarenka looks like she will have a real chance of going all the way again. She has the perfect game for the hard courts and has previous form on this course.

The first real test Azarenka is likely to face is in the Quarter Final against Dominika Cibulkova, but she should feel confident as she has a 6-1 head to head record against the diminutive Slovakian and has won all 5 meetings on the hard courts.

A Semi Final with Marion Bartoli is most likely and that is another match that should not hold any fear for Azarenka considering she has won 6 of their 7 clashes too.


MY PICKS: Juan Carlos Ferrero @ 7.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit E/W)
Dmitry Tursunov @ 17.00 Ladbrokes (0.5 Units E/W)
Juan Martin Del Potro @ 2.50 William Hill (3 Units)
Victoria Azarenka @ 4.50 Stan James (2 Units E/W)


E/W are paid at half the price when a player reaches the Final