US Open Day 8 Picks

The picks were very successful yesterday and have pushed the profits up above 20 units from the daily picks alone during this tournament.

All of the outright picks are also in tact, barring the small pick on Agnieszka Radwansksa, so all in all the US Open has been a good tournament for me so far.

However, this is now the stage where the tournament gets tougher to predict as we are almost at the Quarter Final stage in the Women's event and the 4th Round of the Men's event beginning today.

I am going to do my best to ensure I do not give back the hard earned profits from the last 7 days.

Day 8 Picks:

Francesca Schiavone vs Anastasia Pavyluchenkova: I am picking the underdog, Francesca Schiavone, to open the days proceedings with a win over the young talented Russian.

I feel the odds have been set the way they have due to the time on court Schiavone has spent in the last Round, coupled with Pavyluchenkova's impressive straight sets win over the in-form Jelena Jankovic.

However, Schiavone has had a days rest since her win over Chanelle Scheepers, and I think Pavyluchenkova was in a good place mentally to take on Jankovic as she had won their 2 previous meetings.

This match will pose a different sort of pressure on the Russian as she is down 1-3 in the head to head with Schiavone and was beaten at the French Open in May and also here in Flushing Meadows in 2010 by this opponent.

I expect the dogged Italian to force Pavyluchenkova to hit one more ball on one too many occasions and grind her way to a win, possibly in 3 sets.


Janko Tipsarevic win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Carlos Ferrero: The Serb is definitely getting better and more accustomed to reaching the latter stages of tournaments and I think he will be good enough to see off the veteran Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero and pick up his first career win over him.

However, Tipsarevic is plenty short in the market and he still has the tendency to check out of sets so the option of picking him to win while losing a set appeals to me.

Ferrero has fought through two 5 set matches to reach this stage of the tournament, but he was given an extended rest after his opponent in the last Round retired.

I just don't think he has consistency these days to keep up with Tipsarevic as the match enters the latter stages and I think the Serb will have enough to come through with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.


Serena Williams-Ana Ivanovic Under 18.5 games: The handicap has moved another game in favour of Serena Williams and I think it looks a little long now, but the American should be far too good for Ana Ivanovic and I expect a routine straight sets win.

Williams is hitting the ball so well at the moment and it is like she has never been away. She outplayed Victoria Azarenka in the last Round for most of the match, with the World Number 4 barely surviving into a tie break in the 2nd set through heart and guts alone.

Ivanovic does not strike me as someone who has the belief in her game to come back if Williams gets off to a similar start to Saturday in this match, especially considering the Serb's recent form and also the fact she has lost her 2 previous meetings against Serena.

They met here at the US Open in 2006, when Ivanovic was swiftly moving up the Rankings, and I see a similar 6-4, 6-2 result this time for the favourite to win the title.


Mardy Fish vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This should be a brilliant tennis match regardless of the winner, but I am going to back the American to come through and I know I will be joined by Roger Federer in that hope as he is most likely going to be the next opponent for the winner.

Mardy Fish has been in excellent form this season as he has begun to feel more and more comfortable in his position as America's Number 1 Male player. The pressure for a long time would have been on Andy Roddick in that position coming into Flushing Meadows, but Fish has escaped such expectation as he really is a late bloomer at this level.

I have read some opposition to Fish tonight because of the amount of tennis he has played in recent weeks, but he is in the best shape of his career and did take a week off before the tournament started.

Both players have a similar game, liking to be on the offensive and putting down a foundation with a strong first serve. Both are also very comfortable up the court at the net and the match could come down to who gets the first strike off first.

I just feel Fish is a little more consistent off the ground, even if Tsonga possesses the flashier shots, and that could be enough to take out the Frenchman. It could go a long time though so I would clear a bit of time on your schedule if you want to watch the match.


Roger Federer - 9.5 games vs Juan Monaco: The first thing to say is Juan Monaco has given Roger Federer a tough time in their 2 previous meetings, and only lost a tight 2 setter in Miami when they played earlier this season.

However, I fancy the former World Number 1 to win this one with a bit to spare as the conditions should suit him much more and Monaco does not really have the game to threaten Federer consistently.

Federer will, I imagine, also be aware of the adverse weather conditions due to hit New York in the next couple of days and I expect him to play fully focused to win this match as soon as possible.

His serve has been working effectively and he has been rallying well, and I would expect a 6-1, 6-4, 6-3 win for Federer.


MY PICKS: Francesca Schiavone @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Janko Tipsarevic win 3-1 @ 4.00 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Serena Williams-Ana Ivanovic Under 18.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9.5 games @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)




US OPEN UPDATE: 20-11, + 21.43 Units

Tennis Picks August 11th

It has been an extremely difficult week so far both for us making the picks and for the players as Andy Murray and Rafael Nadal have both 'one and done' in Canada.

The manner of Nadal's loss brought back memories of Roger Federer's defeat on the same court to Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2 years ago as the Spaniard blew winning positions time after time.

Nadal won the first set with minimal fuss and then moved into a 3-1 lead in the second set as a routine victory looked on the cards. However, Ivan Dodig clearly had other plans and fought back to take the set on the tie break.

Order looked to be restored with Nadal taking a 3-0 lead in the decider but that was quickly wiped out. Again it looked all over as Nadal broke to lead 5-3 and served for the match but Dodig was inspired and managed to once again fight back and took the match with a stunning backhand on his first match point.

It's another busy day in Canada today but the forecast does not look pretty so it will be some feat to get all the matches through.

Still, here are my picks for the day:

Sam Stosur vs Na Li: Thanks to Shuai Peng's withdrawal, this is the first match Na Li will play since Wimbledon and it cannot get much tougher against the big serving Sam Stosur, a player that also holds a 3-0 head to head record against Li.

Stosur has not been in great form in recent weeks, but she is used to the conditions in Toronto thanks to her 2 wins to reach this stage. Her game is suited to the hard courts and she will feel confident having won all 6 sets contested with Li.

Li is just 2-2 since winning the French Open and she seems to have a problem adapting to her new found fame. I am not sure if she will be mentally ready for this tough test and she has lost her last 5 matches on hard courts. She was also beaten at this stage in Canada last year and that was with a number of matches behind her since Wimbledon.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: I was interested to see how Kvitova was going to play following her successful Wimbledon, but the young Czech star was very solid in coming through her opening match here in Canada.

A concern is she did struggle in North America earlier this season with quick exits at Indian Wells and Miami and she also lost early during this part of the season last year. However, I think she is mentally so much stronger now and has complete belief in her own game.

Petkovic has really made the best out of her talent, but she remains a step below the elite in the Women's game and she has regularly come up short when playing the best this season. I fear this will be yet another one of those occasions as her serve and groundstrokes just cannot compete with the other more consistent players.

The German is 2-3 in her head to head meetings with Kvitova, and was beaten heavily in their one and only meeting this season after winning the previous 2 contests.


Ana Ivanovic - 4.5 games vs Roberta Vinci: Ana Ivanovic is striving to regain her position at the top of the Women's game and she has been playing a little better in recent months, although still having the lack of confidence to throw in some terrible losses.

She reached the Semi Final in San Diego last week before finding Vera Zvonareva too good, but there have been signs in the last 2 weeks that she is moving into some good form.

Roberta Vinci is a surprise opponent for Ivanovic after beating Yanina Wickmayer and Caroline Wozniacki as the underdog in the last 2 Rounds, but I cannot remove the Jie Zheng defeat in San Diego from my mind.

This is the Italian's best run on a North American hard court, and she also holds a win over Ivanovic from earlier this season. That snapped a 4 match losing run to her opponent, but I think Ivanovic is playing too good for her at the moment and I see a 6-4, 6-2 win for the former World Number 1.


Double; Tomas Berdych vs Ivo Karlovic and Janko Tipsarevic vs Ivan Dodig: I think Tomas Berdych will be too strong for Ivo Karlovic who is coming to the end of a career that was far more productive than I think even Karlovic would have expected.

The win over Alexandr Dolgopolov for Berdych in the last Round would have boosted his confidence and I think he will be too strong for the big Croatian here.

I am also backing Janko Tipsarevic in a big Serb-Croat clash today. Ivan Dodig played the best match of his career yesterday against Rafael Nadal and I feel this may be a case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show' for the Croatian. Tipsarevic is a tough opponent and has already beaten Dodig in straight sets earlier this year.


Stanislas Wawrinka - 2.5 games vs Kevin Anderson: This is another match where I am taking on a player that had a big win in the last Round- Kevin Anderson beat Andy Murray but had been not been in that great shape in his win over Pablo Andujar and I think he may be caught out by Stanislas Wawrinka here.

Wawrinka looked good in his win over David Nalbandian in the 1st Round and made short work of Michael Russell- the Swiss Number 2 will also see this as a chance to make a real impact in a Masters tournament with the exits of Murray and Rafael Nadal from the bottom half of the section.

Anderson served big in his win over Murray, but the serve was not so effective against Andujar and Wawrinka has faced him before, winning in straight sets in Miami last year.

I am a little concerned with the lack of form Wawrinka has shown in recent weeks, but I think he will be too good today.


Roger Federer - 3.5 games vs Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: This is a rematch from 2 years ago when these two players were involved in a memorable match that Tsonga won after being 5-1 down in the final set.

More importantly, it is a rematch of this years Wimbledon Quarter Final that saw Tsonga fight back from a 2-0 deficit to knock out Federer and you can be sure the Swiss former World Number 1 is out for revenge.

Tsonga played absolutely brilliantly when he beat Federer at Wimbledon, a performance to match his destruction of Rafael Nadal in the 2008 Australian Open Semi Final. The problem remains the Frenchman's lack of consistency to put together those performances more regularly and I cannot see him beating Federer again.

It wasn't the best performance from Federer yesterday when beating a Canadian Wild Card, but he did enough and was serving well. That will be the key tonight and he will also need to return better than he did.

The last time Tsonga beat Federer, he was crushed fairly easily in their 3 subsequent meetings, and I am not comfortable backing a player that needs to catch lightning in a bottle to win... I think Federer wins 6-3, 6-4


MY PICKS: Sam Stosur @ 1.80 BetFred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Double; Tomas Berdych and Janko Tipsarevic @ 2.36 BetFred (2 Units)
Stanislas Wawrinka - 2.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2.73 Units

Tennis Picks August 6th Washington and San Diego

One down, two to go- that is how the outright picks are going as we get down to the Final 4 in both of these tournaments this week.

Marcos Baghdatis was a huge disappointment yesterday as he fell in straight sets to Donald Young. I warned myself that it could be one of those weeks for Young, but did not heed that advice and still fancied Baghdatis to get the job done. He had 3 set points in the 2nd set but failed to convert- more disappointing was the fact he failed to get the ball in play on any of those points before falling in the tie break.

It was more frustrating considering he faced Radek Stepanek in the Semi Final if he had got through and he could have really boosted the coffers as a 19.00 shot outright at the start of the week.

Now we have John Isner and Agnieska Radwanska left in the outright as the tournaments come to a close.

The Picks:

Andrea Petkovic vs Agnieska Radwanska: Anyone who followed my outrights at the start of the week know we will win 4 units if Radwanska makes it through to the Final, but the Polish player had called for a trainer in her last match with Daniela Hantuchova and has since admitted that she considered pulling out of the match.

Petkovic has become a popular figure in the stands as she follows victories with the 'Petko Dance' that became famous when she did it for a joke last year. She has been solid on the hard courts and has had a routine path through to the Semi Final, but generally has faltered when coming up against the better players on the tour with losses to Maria Sharapova, Na Li and Marion Bartoli on the hard courts this year.

Radwanska is a solid hard court player herself and reached the Final here last year so obviously must like the conditions. She came back from a horror start against Daniela Hantuchova in the last Round by overturning a 0-6 first set to win in 3 sets. However, I am still concerned about her shoulder and whether she wants to fight through.

Radwanska also holds a 2-0 head to head over Petkovic, winning both matches on the hard courts of Tokyo in the last 2 seasons. Personally, I thought Radwanska would be the favourite, but the injury has  me concerned and I will cover my outright here.


Vera Zvonareva - 3.5 games vs Ana Ivanovic: Ana Ivanovic is apparently still having a little bit of trouble with her wrist, and she now faces a real competitor in the form of Vera Zvonareva.

The Russian is in good form having won a hard court tournament in Azerbaijan a couple of weeks ago and her 3 set win over Sabine Lasicki is impressive, especially the focus she had in the match.

Ivanovic has won through in straight sets in every match this week, but she is still capable of throwing in a stinker and she will be under more pressure against a quality opponent today.

The head to head is 4-4, but it is Zvonareva that has won the last 2 meetings, although they have not played since March 2009. Zvonareva remains the stronger player and I think she will come through with a break in each set to record a straight sets victory.


Gael Monfils vs John Isner: This is another pick for those that followed the outright picks at the start of the week- we took Isner at 10.00 to win the tournament so will be due 4.5 Units if he makes it through to the Final.

I am going to put a couple of units on Monfils here to cover the outright as the Frenchman has played well this week and the lottery of tie breaks is not worth the stress. Whoever wins this match will be the big favourite to win the tournament on Sunday.

As for personal opinion, I think Monfils is overestimated in the match to win, especially the way Isner can serve in tie breaks. If I had no outrights running, I would suggest the value is on the American.


MY PICKS: Andrea Petkovic @ 1.72 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils @ 1.66 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 0.58 Units

Tennis Picks July 26th Stanford and LA

Not a good start to the week as Somdev Devvarman somehow managed to lose in straight sets to Ryan Sweeting in perhaps the worst match I have seen since watching a couple of old guys go at it in the local park.

Neither player deserved to win the match and it was just a huge error-fest.

It didnt get much better as my first outright pick, albeit the one with the lowest stakes attached, went out last night as Dmitry Tursunov fell in 3 sets to Michael Russell.

Hopefully today will bring a brighter set of fortunes:


Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games vs Ayumi Morita: Both of these ladies will be playing their first match since Wimbledon, but Ivanovic has to be favoured to come through the contest thanks to a much stronger hard court pedigree.

The former World Number 1 has reached the 4th Round in Miami this year as well as the Quarter Final in Indian Wells and her power game may just be too much for Morita here.

Morita has reached a Quarter Final on the hard courts this season, but was beaten comfortably here in Stanford last year by Victoria Azarenka and she has had early exits in the bigger events on the hard courts.

Ivanovic has thumped Morita in their only previous meeting and I think she will come through 6-2, 6-4 tonight.


Double; Tim Smyczek vs Daniel Kosakowski and James Blake vs Michael Berrer: This is a double from the LA Open and I think both favourites should be good enough to come through their matches.

Tim Smyczek faces a young prospect that currently attends UCLA that should get plenty of support from the locals in his first ever main ATP match. The experience of Smyczek should see him through the contest, especially considering he beat Kosakowski in a qualifying round at Indian Wells earlier this season.

James Blake has been playing well of late and was unfortunate to lose to John Isner in 3 tight sets last week in Atlanta. He faces Michael Berrer, a player with a decent serve but fairly limited otherwise and I would expect the American to move on to a big 2nd Round match with Juan Martin Del Potro.


MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Double; Tim Smyczek and James Blake @ 1.89 Pinnacle (2 Units)


EEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units

Wimbledon Day 6 Picks

Day 5 was yet another good day for us with the picks going 3-1 and Tomas Berdych well on his way to clearing the handicap before the rain came. Hopefully that wont disrupt the big Czech too much and he should grab the couple games he needs to move through the draw in straight sets.

The tournament is now beginning to heat up as the 4th Round takes shape- personally I am looking forward to the Andy Murray-Richard Gasquet match, although there are possibilities of seeing Rafael Nadal-Juan Martin Del Potro and Marion Bartoli-Serena Williams which makes Monday a great day for ticket holders.

Hopefully the form of the last couple of days can continue before we get to Middle Sunday. On that day I will recap the last week, giving my opinion of the big stories of the week as well as updating the progress of the last week's daily and outright picks.


Now on to Day 6 Picks:


Roger Federer -  7.5 games vs David Nalbandian: If this match had taken place in 2005, it would have been a real test for Roger Federer. Unfortunately for us David Nalbandian fans, our man has not really been in the best of form although I do expect him to raise his game against his old rival.

Federer has been serving magnificantly in recent weeks since the French Open began, and that could negate the pressure that Nalbandian will be able to put on the serve with his excellent returning game.

I expect the Argentine to keep it close for a while, but his game can break down when he gets behind and I believe Federer will get a 6-1/6-2 set under his belt to ensure this spread is covered.

Nalbandian's serve has always been a weak point of his game and I dont think he is consistent enough off the ground at this moment in time to cause problems for long enough in this match.


Michael Llodra - 4.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Yen-Hsun Lu has once again shown he can play on the grass courts after beating Viktor Troicki in the last Round in what was considered a big upset. This comes only a year after he reached the Quarter Final here after beating Andy Roddick in 5 sets.

However, Lu now faces a huge test in the form of Michael Llodra, a serve-volley player that is more than comfortable on the grass. Llodra has taken advantage of the draw to reach this stage and will be confident he can beat Lu.

That confidence comes from a 3-1 head to head record for Llodra against Lu. 2 of those wins took place on grass courts, Llodra winning all 4 sets competed for the loss of just 6 games.

Llodra will continue to put pressure on Lu throughout the match with his chip-charge on returns and I expect he will get through while covering the spread.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets vs Fernando Gonzalez: I have said it before on my twitter feed, but I will say it again here- it is really great to see Fernando Gonzalez back in action and making inroads in a Grand Slam. The Chilean has missed the majority of the last 10 months through injury and he had barely played before this tournament began.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga came through a tough 4 setter against Grigor Dimitrov and was surprisingly insightful when admitting he is struggling to keep his composure to close out games. It was particularly surprising considering he reached the Final at Queens just 2 weeks ago.

Tsonga does go through some ups and downs during his matches and he has the tendency to lose concentration and thus lose sets, especially in these longer formats at Grand Slam level.

Gonzalez won their only previous meeting at the US Open in 2009 in 4 sets, but this is his toughest test since returning from injury so it would be a real shock if he gets through.

However, he can take advantage of any lapses in concentration by Tsonga and steal a set in the process of exiting the tournament.


Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games vs Petra Cetkovska: Petra Cetkovska fought valiantly to beat Agnieska Radwanska in the last Round, but she now faces another tough test in the form of Ana Ivanovic.

Ivanovic is definitely restoring her confidence since the lows of last season, and she has come through the first 2 Rounds with the loss of just 4 games. She has the big serve that gets her a number of free points and her heavy groundstrokes makes it hard for the Women who are ranked below her.

Cetkovska has needed 6 sets to get through her first 2 Rounds and could be a little fatigued after fighting back against Radwanska.

She also has to erase the memory of her 1 and only meeting with Ivanovic- they met in the 4th Round of the 2008 French Open and Ivanovic handed out 2 bagels.

While Ivanovic is not at that same level now, I do expect her to get through while covering the spread.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 7.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units) Still Running from Day 5 with Berdych leading 6-2, 6-4, 4-3 (*15-0)


TOURNAMENT UPDATE: + 12.41 Units (+ 5.38 Units Day 5)