Tennis Picks August 18th Cincinnati

It was another topsy-turvy day yesterday that began terribly, but ended with lot of positives and profits.

Andy Murray looked impressive in dispatching David Nalbandian and that means both outright picks are alive this week. There is still a lot of tennis to be played before anything good comes from the outright picks, but it's been a longer adventure than last week when both exited the tournament at a very early stage.

On to the Picks:

Andy Murray - 4.5 games vs Alex Bogomolov: This is a big chance for Andy Murray to get revenge for an embarrassing loss to Bogomolov earlier this year in Miami.

That loss came during a big slump in form for Murray after the Australian Open, but I think he is in better form now.

Bogomolov recorded another big win this season when beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga yesterday and he is enjoying his time here, coming through 5 Rounds to reach this stage.

I am a little concerned that Murray has too many lapses in his concentration, but I do expect the British Number 1 to move through in straight sets and I can see him pulling away in the second set to cover the spread.


Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games vs Fernando Verdasco: Rafael Nadal has beaten his Spanish compatriot in all 12 previous meetings and I don't think Verdasco is in the form to change that.

The closest Verdasco came to beating Nadal was in Australia in that Semi Final of 2009 when he pushed Nadal to the limits of his game, but Verdasco is far removed from that kind of form and the 2 sets he won that day are part of the 3 sets he has EVER won against Nadal.

I think Rafa is far too consistent for Verdasco, who is capable of throwing in nightmare service games, and I expect him to move through without too much fuss.


David Ferrer - 2.5 games vs Gilles Simon: David Ferrer is the ultimate competitor and I have a lot of respect for his dedication to his craft and his ability to get the absolute best from his ability- personally I think a lot of youngsters playing the game should look at Ferrer as an example of what hard work can reward.

Ferrer's lack of matches on the hard courts is a concern, but he plays Gilles Simon who also has not played too much hard court tennis this Summer.

I think Ferrer holds a big edge in the match up because the two players essentially have the same game, yet it is Ferrer who is just a little better in all departments.

Ferrer has won their 2 previous meetings, albeit back in 2007, and he lost just 5 games combined in winning in straight sets on each occasion... I think he will win in straight sets again tonight.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games vs Philipp Kohlschreiber: Gael Monfils has a very good record against Philipp Kohlschreiber and I expect he can continue that here.

My biggest concern is the fact that Monfils has been playing a lot of tennis in recent weeks, reaching the Final in Washington and the Quarter Final in Montreal last week, and he may be a little fatigued.

Kohlschreiber is making a surprise appearance at this stage as he was not expected to win his first 2 matches, but he had not been in great form on the hard courts this season and I think Monfils will be just too good for him again.


Daniela Hantuchova vs Marion Bartoli: I am not convinced the layers have this right by making Hantuchova the underdog in this match.

The Slovakian has a 4-1 head to head record against Bartoli and that includes 2 wins on the hard courts of the United States, the latest coming in San Diego last season.

Neither player has been in fantastic form of late, but I think Hantuchova will have the mental edge in the match and can come through, possibly in 3 sets.


Petra Kvitova vs Andrea Petkovic: A quick look at the results from Toronto will show Petkovic beat Kvitova in straight sets last week for the loss of just 3 games, but the match was a lot closer than that and I think the Wimbledon champion can overturn that result.

There has been an overreaction, in my opinion, from that result last week and they are now set as a pick 'em contest or with Kvitova as the slight favourite and I will have a go backing her to win.

The Czech player has not played a lot of tennis of late and struggled a little more against Chanelle Scheepers than I thought she would, but the match is on her racquet and if she can cut out some of the unforced errors, I think she can win.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 4.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
David Ferrer - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daniela Hantuchova @ 2.20 BetFred (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE: + 3.04 Units

Tennis Picks August 7th Washington and San Diego

Agnieska Radwanska reached the Final so we have a 9.00 pick running on her today to win the tournament against Vera Zvonareva.

John Isner just failed to get through to the Final in Washington as he lost a final set tie break to Gael Monfils but fortunately we covered the outright pick by taking Monfils yesterday.

I only have a couple of Picks today, and one of those is a cover:

Vera Zvonareva vs Agnieska Radwanska: I would only recommend taking this if you were on Radwanska outright at the start of the week. We have already covered our stake with the Polish player reaching the Final, but I am going to play 4 Units on Zvonareva to take away some of the profit on a Radwanska win.

Zvonareva has a strong head to head record against Radwanska and I have a feeling she will win today and at least this way we can earn some profit from the match regardless of the outcome.


Gael Monfils - 3 games vs Radek Stepanek: As I said yesterday, whoever won the match between Monfils and John Isner was bound to be the favourite in this Final and I do believe Monfils will go on and win the tournament.

He has been serving well and is used to playing the awkward style of Radek Stepanek so there should not be any surprises for him here. Stepanek is playing well himself this week, but this is by far the biggest test he will face and I can see Monfils' speed grinding him down in straight sets.

Monfils has won the last two matches between the players in straight sets and holds a 5-2 overall record. I imagine that will be 6-2 after the Final.


MY PICKS: Vera Zvonareva @ 1.53 Pinnacle (4 Units)
Gael Monfils - 3 games @ 2.18 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: - 2.1 Units

Tennis Picks August 6th Washington and San Diego

One down, two to go- that is how the outright picks are going as we get down to the Final 4 in both of these tournaments this week.

Marcos Baghdatis was a huge disappointment yesterday as he fell in straight sets to Donald Young. I warned myself that it could be one of those weeks for Young, but did not heed that advice and still fancied Baghdatis to get the job done. He had 3 set points in the 2nd set but failed to convert- more disappointing was the fact he failed to get the ball in play on any of those points before falling in the tie break.

It was more frustrating considering he faced Radek Stepanek in the Semi Final if he had got through and he could have really boosted the coffers as a 19.00 shot outright at the start of the week.

Now we have John Isner and Agnieska Radwanska left in the outright as the tournaments come to a close.

The Picks:

Andrea Petkovic vs Agnieska Radwanska: Anyone who followed my outrights at the start of the week know we will win 4 units if Radwanska makes it through to the Final, but the Polish player had called for a trainer in her last match with Daniela Hantuchova and has since admitted that she considered pulling out of the match.

Petkovic has become a popular figure in the stands as she follows victories with the 'Petko Dance' that became famous when she did it for a joke last year. She has been solid on the hard courts and has had a routine path through to the Semi Final, but generally has faltered when coming up against the better players on the tour with losses to Maria Sharapova, Na Li and Marion Bartoli on the hard courts this year.

Radwanska is a solid hard court player herself and reached the Final here last year so obviously must like the conditions. She came back from a horror start against Daniela Hantuchova in the last Round by overturning a 0-6 first set to win in 3 sets. However, I am still concerned about her shoulder and whether she wants to fight through.

Radwanska also holds a 2-0 head to head over Petkovic, winning both matches on the hard courts of Tokyo in the last 2 seasons. Personally, I thought Radwanska would be the favourite, but the injury has  me concerned and I will cover my outright here.


Vera Zvonareva - 3.5 games vs Ana Ivanovic: Ana Ivanovic is apparently still having a little bit of trouble with her wrist, and she now faces a real competitor in the form of Vera Zvonareva.

The Russian is in good form having won a hard court tournament in Azerbaijan a couple of weeks ago and her 3 set win over Sabine Lasicki is impressive, especially the focus she had in the match.

Ivanovic has won through in straight sets in every match this week, but she is still capable of throwing in a stinker and she will be under more pressure against a quality opponent today.

The head to head is 4-4, but it is Zvonareva that has won the last 2 meetings, although they have not played since March 2009. Zvonareva remains the stronger player and I think she will come through with a break in each set to record a straight sets victory.


Gael Monfils vs John Isner: This is another pick for those that followed the outright picks at the start of the week- we took Isner at 10.00 to win the tournament so will be due 4.5 Units if he makes it through to the Final.

I am going to put a couple of units on Monfils here to cover the outright as the Frenchman has played well this week and the lottery of tie breaks is not worth the stress. Whoever wins this match will be the big favourite to win the tournament on Sunday.

As for personal opinion, I think Monfils is overestimated in the match to win, especially the way Isner can serve in tie breaks. If I had no outrights running, I would suggest the value is on the American.


MY PICKS: Andrea Petkovic @ 1.72 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Vera Zvonareva - 3.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils @ 1.66 Pinnacle (2 Units)


WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 0.58 Units

Tennis Picks August 4th Washington and San Diego

While it is almost impossible to pick winners every day, nothing hurts more than when a pick looks all set to win their match, but then inexplicably fall apart as the final furlong approaches.

Unfortunately for me, that was the situation yesterday as Sofia Arvidsson won the first 9 games of her match with Alberta Brianti only to be pegged back to lose the 2nd set on a tie break.

To make matters worse, she then served for the match at 5-4 in the final set, only to be broken again and lose on the tie break for a second time.

Those are the kinds of losses that are much harder to take, and led to a bad day overall as Jurgen Melzer pulled out with an injury in his match with Donald Young and Ryan Harrison was comfortably beaten by Victor Troicki.

On a brighter note, the last two days has seen Marcos Baghdatis' section of the draw open up and I really hope he can take advantage of that. Jurgen Melzer, Xavier Malisse and Mardy Fish have all exited the tournament and the 19.00 we backed for Baghdatis to win this tournament at the start of the week is long gone.

Hopefully I will have better luck with the following picks:

Double; Marcos Baghdatis vs Somdev Devvarman and Gael Monfils vs Ryan Sweeting: Marcos Baghdatis will play his match this afternoon with a 1-0 advantage after all the rain yesterday decimated the days play. He was soundly beaten by Devvarman in Indian Wells earlier this season, but he must feel he can go far in a tournament where he has quite a few points to defend from last year after the exits of a number of seeds.

Gael Monfils should have too much class for Ryan Sweeting even if he is not the most reliable player on the tour when it comes to the mental approach of the game. His lack of hard court matches in recent weeks is a concern but he has enough ability to see off Sweeting here.

Double; Radek Stepanek vs Jarkko Nieminen and John Isner vs James Blake: This is a much riskier double, in my opinion anyway, than the double above but I do think both players are able to come through their matches.

Radek Stepanek has an exceptional record against left handers on the tour and it is not different against Nieminen who has beaten the last 3 times they have played.

Stepanek has been impressive in his first 2 matches of the Summer on the hard courts and has generally been the better hard court player of the two. If he continues to serve well, I can see Stepanek coming through in straight sets with a break in each set.

John Isner beat James Blake in a tight battle in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago and I am taking him to confirm that form over the veteran today. Isner's serve can put additional pressure on Blake who is still giving up a few chances on his own servince games and the pressure could eventually tell.

I would not be surprised if we see a couple of tie breaks again tonight, but I think Isner can be good enough, just, to come through.

MY PICKS: Double; Marcos Baghdatis and Gael Monfils @ 2.01 William Hill (2 Units)

Double; Radek Stepanek and John Isner @ 2.53 Sporting Bet (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: - 1.5 Units

Tennis Picks July 20th ATP Hamburg

I have decided to split my Hamburg picks and Atlanta picks into two separate posts as the schedule for tomorrow's tennis in the USA wont be released until much later, while the prices are only really available in the morning, albeit several hours before the first game is due to start.

I will continue to update the weekly picks on both threads, but I find it is the easiest way to make any picks assuming there are some from both tournaments.

Hamburg used to be one of the top Masters events on the clay courts and while it does not have the big names entering anymore considering its place on the schedule, a good field has still turned up this week.

Yesterday we had a couple of surprises as Juan Carlos Ferrero, Phillip Petzschner and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez all lost as short favourites.

The last of those results looks like being a bit of good news for my outright pick of the week- Marin Cilic is yet to play but has seen the likes of Garcia-Lopez and Juan Ignacio Chela fall out of the draw in his section and he looks like he has a decent look at getting to the Quarter Finals now.

I was hoping Carlos Berlocq would have put out Mikhail Youzhny too, but that would be getting greedy and I just hope Cilic can take advantage of the draw opening up for him. He has dropped 8 points at the bookmakers without hitting a ball, so lets just hope he has come to play this week.

Now on to the Picks:

Treble; Marin Cilic vs Bastian Knittel, Gael Monfils vs Albert Ramos and Nicolas Almagro vs Lukas Rosol: None of the three players I am picking are the most trustworthy when it comes to being priced as short priced favourites in their matches but all three should have enough of an edge over their opponents to get through.

Marin Cilic was my outright pick this week, but he has struggled for form this season with his serve being particularly erratic in recent weeks. However, he plays against a German qualifier that had not won a match on the main tour on a clay court in the last few seasons before he beat Ivan Dodig.

Bastian Knittel is only 14-14 on clay in Challenger events and qualifiers this season and should not really have the level to trouble Cilic.

Gael Monfils is underachieving in his professional career considering all the talent he has- he may be in the top 10, but has failed to win tournaments on a consistent basis and still loses far too many silly matches.

Monfils was a disappointing loser in Stuttgart last week to Victor Hanescu, but he is a decent clay court player and that loss could be put down to his exertions in the Davis Cup a few days prior.

He meets a player that must play around 99% of his matches on the clay courts and one that performs very well on the Challenger circuit and when qualifying for main tour events. However, Ramos has never really transferred that form to the main tour, and I feel Monfils will be too consistent for him if he plays like he can.

Nicolas Almagro is the favourite to win this tournament and is likely to be glad he is playing Lukas Rosol rather than Potito Starace. Almagro is a very strong clay court player and one that has a proven track record of winning tournaments on the surface. His overall game should be too strong for Rosol, although it could be a tight first set.

Double; Florian Mayer vs Marsel Ilhan and Juan Monaco vs Janko Tipsarevic: Both of these players are favourites to win and I believe they can both do so.

Florian Mayer has lost his last 2 matches, but has had probably a career year on the main ATP tour. Mayer has had a decent season on the clay courts this season, reaching the Final in Munich and the Quarter Final in Rome before helping Germany win in Dusseldorf.

Marsel Ilhan is beginning to make an impact on the Challenger tour but he has not quite transferred that form onto the main tour. Ilhan did reach a Final on the surface a couple of weeks ago in Holland, but this should represent a hurdle too far here in Hamburg.

Janko Tipsarevic has not played since Serbia won their Davis Cup tie with Sweden and, judging by his statements since, he has enjoyed partying it up with his friends to celebrate. Tipsarevic is usually a tougher opponent on the faster surfaces and last Summer decided to play in Atlanta rather than in the clay tournaments after Wimbledon.

Juan Monaco is a clay court expert and it seems he has got over the foot injury that saw him withdraw at Bastad last week. The Argentine holds a win over Tipsarevic on the clay courts from 2 years ago, and I think he may have a little more motivation for this match.

Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games vs Daniel Gimeno-Traver: This is a rematch from Madrid, a match that Gimeno-Traver won in straight sets, but I really feel Melzer can turn the form around this time.

Melzer had won their 2 previous meetings before that match in Madrid, including once on clay, and had won all 4 sets they had competed in. The Austrian might be ranked Number 12 in the World, but he has been struggling for form in recent weeks.

However, he did reach the Final here in Hamburg last year and Gimeno-Traver has been struggling himself this season with only 6 wins from the 24 matches he played this year.

If Melzer can serve well, I think he can put another pressure on Gimeno-Traver to get a break in each set and cover this spread.

MY PICKS: Treble; Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils and Nicolas Almagro @ 2.26 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Double; Florian Mayer and Juan Monaco @ 2.39 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Jurgen Melzer - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

WEEKLY UPDATE: + 1.26 Units

Davis Cup Quarter Final Picks- July 8th 2011

It wasn't a great day for me yesterday with both picks failing to deliver. Juan Monaco dominated his match against Andrey Golubev and was never in any real danger of dropping a set, while Edouard Roger-Vasselin lost after winning the first set of his match with Tobias Kamke.

However, both picks were with minimum stakes as I was not overly confident in either and I hope to have a better day as the 3 other Davis Cup Quarter Final ties begin.


So without further ado, it is on to the Picks:


Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games vs Florian Mayer: This match is the opening Rubber of the Germany-France match and will be played on clay courts, but I am still a little surprised that Gasquet is being considered a tight favourite to win the match.

As I have mentioned before on the blog, Florian Mayer can be an awkward player to get used to as he has a very unique style of playing and serving. The German has had a good season so far, but I think his World Number 20 Ranking is a little bit too kind to his ability.

Mayer's serve is a weakness and that is an area Gasquet will look to expose. He is also only 4-4 in Davis Cup matches in the past, although Mayer does hold a 4-1 record on matches played on clay. Generally his best results to come on clay.

Gasquet, on the other hand, is once again establishing himself as one of the better players on the ATP Tour and is now just outside the top 10. He has performed admirably on the clay this season, and it has taken the likes of Rafael Nadal (twice) and Novak Djokovic to prevent him having more success.

The French Number 2 will be making his first Davis Cup singles appearance since 2008 and will hope he can improve his 5-5 record (1-2 on clay).

The head to head is 1-1, with Gasquet winning the most recent meeting in 2007.

Gasquet should have the edge in the match in terms of serve and overall groundstrokes. If he can ignore the vocal home support Mayer will receive, I think he can get through in 3 or 4 sets. Mayer is also capable of going walkabouts in sets as can be seen in recent defeats to Alejandro Falla and Xavier Malisse, so Gasquet could cover the spread thanks to a 6-2/6-1 set.


Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets vs Feliciano Lopez: This is also the opening Rubber of the Quarter Final between the USA and Spain and could set the tempo for the entire tie.

Mardy Fish is the top rated American coming into this tie and pulled out of the tournament at Newport where he was the defending Champion so he could take part here. Fish is having a very good season and has all the tools to be very effective in what is being described as a much faster hard court than many of the players will be used to.

That wont bother Feliciano Lopez too much if that is the case, especially as it could make his serve even more effective. Lopez got the nod to represent Spain ahead of good friend Fernando Verdasco after reaching the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon.

Lopez will make life difficult with his serve, especially if he gets it firing early in the match, but I just feel Fish moves better and is perhaps the more consistent player of the two, especially when it comes to the crunch.

Fish may also hold the mental edge as he has won the last 3 meetings between the two players, one of those on the hard courts of Miami, after losing the first 2 meetings. In fact, Fish has won the last 6 sets between the players.

We could see a couple of tie breakers here to separate the players, but I feel it will be Fish who is too consistent and may just 'batter' Lopez in 4 sets.


Potito Starace - 5.5 games vs Blaz Kavcic: The Italians meet the Slovenians at home on the comfort on the clay courts and that should give Potito Starace a big advantage in this matchup. I know Starace is a player that predominantly does his best work when on the red dirt underneath his feet and he will have the full support of the crowd behind him, a crowd that should have been warmed up with this the 2nd of the Rubbers to be played tomorrow.

Blaz Kavcic is more than capable of playing on clay courts, but could be feeling additional pressure if Slovenia are already 1-0 down in the tie.

Starace also holds a straights sets win over Kavcic on the clay courts from last season and I think he is more than capable of winning this one in straight sets and covering the spread in the process.


Gael Monfils win 3-1 in sets vs Phillip Kohlschreiber: This is a tough match for Gael Monfils who likes to entertain the crowds, but will not be receiving much support in this tie. He meets a player in Phillip Kohlschreiber that he has enjoyed considerable success against in the past, although their last meeting was won by the German in straight sets(also played in Germany).

However, Monfils seems to raise his game when playing for his country and I expect him to be focused on this match. His retrieving skills can make it tough for Kohlschreiber to break him down and I feel the clay courts will aid Monfils in frustrating the crowd and his opponent.

Monfils holds a Davis Cup win over Kohlschreiber, beating the German in straight sets last season, but this is a tougher prospect and I definitely see Kohlschreiber getting at least one set on the board.

I just feel Monfils is too strong a player for him, and he will come through in 4 sets to put France in a commanding position on Day 1.


MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish - 1.5 sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Potito Starace - 5.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)


WEEKLY UPDATE: - 2 Units

French Open Day 10 Picks

Rafael Nadal continues to make progress in this tournament, but there is no doubt that he is feeling the pressure and admitted to being 'nervous' going into matches this year. He is not quite adjusted to the conditions but will need to be on top of his game when he faces Robin Soderling in the Quarter Finals.

Soderling won in straight sets against Gilles Simon, even after seemingly losing concentration in the 3rd set. I think the big hitting Swede is happy to have got through without having to expend too much energy and must feel he has a chance with the way Nadal is playing.

The other big news in the Men's tournament was the withdrawal of Fabio Fognini from his Quarter Final tie with Novak Djokovic. I dont think anyone seriously expected Fognini to test Djokovic, but it does mean the Serb has additional days to rest his body and get ready for the potential matches against Roger Federer and Nadal.


The Women's draw saw Maria Sharapova and Victoria Azarenka- there seems to be some obvious dislike between the two and that can only make for better theatre if they can overcome Andrea Petkovic and Na Li in the last 8 respectively.

It is also not too far fetched to think whichever of those ladies gets through to the Final will be the favourite to win the tournament.


Now on to Day 10 Picks:

Roger Federer - 6.5 games vs Gael Monfils: I think Roger Federer was enjoying the David Ferrer-Gael Monfils match earlier in the day as the it went into a 5th set and I feel this could take its toll on Monfils for this match.

Federer has beaten Monfils twice before at the French Open, in the Semi Final in 2008 and the Quarter Final in 2009, and on both occasions he has done so with a bit to spare.

Monfils might keep it entertaining for a couple of sets, but he is also likely to 'tank' a set away and that will be enough to help Federer cover a spread that I expected to be at least 2 games higher.

Monfils does like performing to a crowd, as shown when he beat Federer in Paris last year, but I just think his lack of matches recently may play against him if he gets behind early.


Francesca Schiavone - 3.5 games vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: I had to deliberate about picking this match for a little bit of time. Whereas I think the other match between Kuznetsova and Bartoli is really a pick 'em contest that I cannot separate, I just feel Schiavone's experience and game play will break Pavlyuchekova down eventually.

This is Pavlyuchenkova's first appearance in the Quarter Final of a Major, but Schiavone is the defending Champion here so knows what it takes to win the match. The Italian may not have the power that Pavlyuchenkova has, but she has the finesse that will expose the bad movement of the younger player.

Schivaone also leads the head to head 2-1 (1-0 on clay) and has won their only other meeting in a Major (last year at the US Open).

It is possible that this goes 3 sets, I just think Schiavone has too much at this moment of time on the red dirt.


MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units) Still Running from Day 9 with the score tied 2-2 in sets and 20-17 in games to Murray
Roger Federer - 6.5 games @ 1.83 BetFred (3 Units)
Francesca Schiavone - 3.5 games @ 2.00 TitanBet (2 Units)


FRENCH OPEN: + 19.27 Units (+ 0.4 Units Day 9)