It was a good day all round yesterday as both picks came in and all the outright picks from this week continued their progress through the draws.
Marcos Baghdatis had to do a bit of double duty yesterday as he finished his 2nd and 3rd Round matches in around 7-8 hours. Both matches went to 3 sets but hopefully he can continue his run in the bottom half of the draw that has really opened up in the last few days.
John Isner is fortunate to still be in this tournament after struggling in his match with James Blake- I have to say it is nice to see Blake playing to a much higher level than this time last year when he was losing to Denis Istomin on the hard courts of Cincinnati with little fight.
Agnieska Radwanska faces a big test in the form of Daniela Hantuchova today, but I am hopeful the Polish player can continue her march to the Final against an opponent she has beaten in 3 of the last 4 matches they have played. Radwanska has looked the more efficient in her matches so far this week and her crushing of Christina McHale looks better considering the American's recent form.
Now on to the Picks:
Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games vs Donald Young: This is a pick that is kind of risky considering I already have Baghdatis e/w in the outright market.
However, I feel Baghdatis is the better player of the two and I think he is good enough to come through this match in straight sets. I would like to see the Cypriot serving as he did for the majority of yesterday as that will make life so much easier for him here and he is rightly the favourite to come through.
Donald Young has flattered to deceive for much of his career but is having a decent week- but it has to be said that he has not faced the toughest of opponents this week and this is definitely the biggest challenge Young will face.
It is very possible that Young is having a really high week as recent losses to Alex Bogdanovich and Michael Russell are disappointing, but I think his time in Washington comes to an end tonight.
Victor Troicki vs John Isner: I am going to make this play as I think there is a real chance that Victor Troicki can knock out one of my outright picks in this match.
Isner looked mentally exhausted in his win over Blake yesterday and it was concerning to see his serve as ineffective as it was in the final two sets. Victor Troicki has made serene progress through the draw and holds a 2-0 head to head record over Isner and is definitely capable of winning this match.
We could see a couple of tie breaks and those can be a lottery and so I think a small pick of Troicki to cover the outright pick would be beneficial.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 3.5 games @ 1.91 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Victor Troicki @ 1.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: + 3.58 Units
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Showing posts with label Marcos Baghdatis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Marcos Baghdatis. Show all posts
Friday, 5 August 2011
Thursday, 4 August 2011
Tennis Picks August 4th Washington and San Diego
While it is almost impossible to pick winners every day, nothing hurts more than when a pick looks all set to win their match, but then inexplicably fall apart as the final furlong approaches.
Unfortunately for me, that was the situation yesterday as Sofia Arvidsson won the first 9 games of her match with Alberta Brianti only to be pegged back to lose the 2nd set on a tie break.
To make matters worse, she then served for the match at 5-4 in the final set, only to be broken again and lose on the tie break for a second time.
Those are the kinds of losses that are much harder to take, and led to a bad day overall as Jurgen Melzer pulled out with an injury in his match with Donald Young and Ryan Harrison was comfortably beaten by Victor Troicki.
On a brighter note, the last two days has seen Marcos Baghdatis' section of the draw open up and I really hope he can take advantage of that. Jurgen Melzer, Xavier Malisse and Mardy Fish have all exited the tournament and the 19.00 we backed for Baghdatis to win this tournament at the start of the week is long gone.
Hopefully I will have better luck with the following picks:
Double; Marcos Baghdatis vs Somdev Devvarman and Gael Monfils vs Ryan Sweeting: Marcos Baghdatis will play his match this afternoon with a 1-0 advantage after all the rain yesterday decimated the days play. He was soundly beaten by Devvarman in Indian Wells earlier this season, but he must feel he can go far in a tournament where he has quite a few points to defend from last year after the exits of a number of seeds.
Gael Monfils should have too much class for Ryan Sweeting even if he is not the most reliable player on the tour when it comes to the mental approach of the game. His lack of hard court matches in recent weeks is a concern but he has enough ability to see off Sweeting here.
Double; Radek Stepanek vs Jarkko Nieminen and John Isner vs James Blake: This is a much riskier double, in my opinion anyway, than the double above but I do think both players are able to come through their matches.
Radek Stepanek has an exceptional record against left handers on the tour and it is not different against Nieminen who has beaten the last 3 times they have played.
Stepanek has been impressive in his first 2 matches of the Summer on the hard courts and has generally been the better hard court player of the two. If he continues to serve well, I can see Stepanek coming through in straight sets with a break in each set.
John Isner beat James Blake in a tight battle in Atlanta a couple of weeks ago and I am taking him to confirm that form over the veteran today. Isner's serve can put additional pressure on Blake who is still giving up a few chances on his own servince games and the pressure could eventually tell.
I would not be surprised if we see a couple of tie breaks again tonight, but I think Isner can be good enough, just, to come through.
MY PICKS: Double; Marcos Baghdatis and Gael Monfils @ 2.01 William Hill (2 Units)
Double; Radek Stepanek and John Isner @ 2.53 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE WASHINGTON/SAN DIEGO: - 1.5 Units
Sunday, 31 July 2011
Tennis Outright Picks August 1st-7th
The US Open series continues this week with the ATP 500 Event in Washington and the WTA Tour moves to San Diego, while over in Europe the last of the clay events following Wimbledon begins in Austria.
We still await the big players on the ATP tour to make their first appearances in the Summer, but with the Montreal Masters beginning next week, we can be sure their preparations are going strong.
ATP Washington
With most of the top 10 MIA for this tournament, it leaves it wide open for a few players to make a run at a tournament worth quite a few ranking points. The favourite for the tournament is unsurprisingly Mardy Fish, a player that has recently won in Atlanta and is in the Final in Los Angeles tonight.
I won't be backing the Number 1 American this week simply because of the amount of tennis he has played this week and I am not sure if he will even travel the length on the country with bigger fish (pardon the pun) to fry in the next few weeks.
Still, just because I won't be backing Fish this week does not mean I will be finding someone in his section to back instead. The likes of Fernando Verdasco, Nikolay Davydenko and Jarkko Nieminen are all seeded in this section and make their hard court debuts this Summer yet none of those can be trusted on recent form.
One player who may make the most of the Fish half of the draw is the Number 7 seeded Marcos Baghdatis although he is yet another player that has a few question marks surrounding him. Baghdatis was knocked out in his first match last week in LA to Yen-Hsun Lu and has been an early loser in previous matches in the States this season at Miami and Indian Wells.
Baghdatis has course form here in Washington as he finished Runner Up last season and he might be able to make hay if he can get through a potential 2nd Round meeting with Somdev Devvarman, a player that beat Baghdatis in straight sets at Indian Wells.
The route through to the Semi Final would see him face Thomaz Bellucci in the 3rd Round and a potential Quarter Final with either Xavier Malisse or Jurgen Melzer.
On the other half of the draw, there doesn't seem like a lot of choices to be had with the best players all seeming to have been placed in the bottom section.
There we have John Isner, another former player that has reached the Final here in Washington before although he does have a tough looking draw in the early Rounds.
Isner is seeded to avoid Round 1, and then faces a very winnable match. The 3rd Round is where the potential problems arise as he is down to meet either last years Champion, David Nalbandian, or the in-form James Blake. The former will present more problems for Isner with his superior returning game, but has not played any tennis since Wimbledon, while Blake and Isner had a tight match in Atlanta recently that was won by Isner in 3 sets.
It is slightly concerning that Isner had a few issues with his shoulder in Atlanta, but he has had a few days off and will have a couple more before his 2nd Round match.
Overall, this looks like a tough tournament to pick outright, but I will back those two players I have mentioned and hope one of those can give us a run.
WTA San Diego
This is quite a solid field this week fresh off Stanford and there are a number of players that will feel they can have a big week.
The market is being dominated by a few single priced favourites and I am going to pick one of those as an each way shout.
My pick is in what I consider to be the weaker 2nd half of the draw and is going to be Agnieska Radwanska, last years beaten Finalist.
Radwanska is the Number 3 seed here this week and was a Quarter Finalist in Stanford last week before being beaten by Sabine Lisicki in 3 sets.
The Polish player should be able to negotiate the 2nd and 3rd Rounds of the tournament without too many issues before a potential Quarter Final with Daniela Hantuchova- again Radwanska should have the edge over a player she has beaten 3 of the last 4 times they have met and she also holds a win over Hantuchova from this tournament last year.
The potential Semi Final opponent is less clear as that is a tough section to pick from, and whoever she meets could have had to play a lot of tennis up to that point in hot weather.
The other side of the draw provides some big threats in the forms of Vera Zvonareva, a recent winner in Baku, Sabine Lisicki, a Semi Finalist last week in Stanford, and Dominika Cibulkova. All 3 of those players are in a section meaning only 1 will make the Semi Final and it looks like a tough section to predict again.
In saying that, the odds on Zvonareva and Lisicki look plenty short considering their opposition and I would rather be on Radwanska at the same odds in what looks like a clearer path through.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 19.00 Bet365 (1 Unit E/W)
John Isner @ 10.00 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Agnieska Radwanska @ 9.00 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
We still await the big players on the ATP tour to make their first appearances in the Summer, but with the Montreal Masters beginning next week, we can be sure their preparations are going strong.
ATP Washington
With most of the top 10 MIA for this tournament, it leaves it wide open for a few players to make a run at a tournament worth quite a few ranking points. The favourite for the tournament is unsurprisingly Mardy Fish, a player that has recently won in Atlanta and is in the Final in Los Angeles tonight.
I won't be backing the Number 1 American this week simply because of the amount of tennis he has played this week and I am not sure if he will even travel the length on the country with bigger fish (pardon the pun) to fry in the next few weeks.
Still, just because I won't be backing Fish this week does not mean I will be finding someone in his section to back instead. The likes of Fernando Verdasco, Nikolay Davydenko and Jarkko Nieminen are all seeded in this section and make their hard court debuts this Summer yet none of those can be trusted on recent form.
One player who may make the most of the Fish half of the draw is the Number 7 seeded Marcos Baghdatis although he is yet another player that has a few question marks surrounding him. Baghdatis was knocked out in his first match last week in LA to Yen-Hsun Lu and has been an early loser in previous matches in the States this season at Miami and Indian Wells.
Baghdatis has course form here in Washington as he finished Runner Up last season and he might be able to make hay if he can get through a potential 2nd Round meeting with Somdev Devvarman, a player that beat Baghdatis in straight sets at Indian Wells.
The route through to the Semi Final would see him face Thomaz Bellucci in the 3rd Round and a potential Quarter Final with either Xavier Malisse or Jurgen Melzer.
On the other half of the draw, there doesn't seem like a lot of choices to be had with the best players all seeming to have been placed in the bottom section.
There we have John Isner, another former player that has reached the Final here in Washington before although he does have a tough looking draw in the early Rounds.
Isner is seeded to avoid Round 1, and then faces a very winnable match. The 3rd Round is where the potential problems arise as he is down to meet either last years Champion, David Nalbandian, or the in-form James Blake. The former will present more problems for Isner with his superior returning game, but has not played any tennis since Wimbledon, while Blake and Isner had a tight match in Atlanta recently that was won by Isner in 3 sets.
It is slightly concerning that Isner had a few issues with his shoulder in Atlanta, but he has had a few days off and will have a couple more before his 2nd Round match.
Overall, this looks like a tough tournament to pick outright, but I will back those two players I have mentioned and hope one of those can give us a run.
WTA San Diego
This is quite a solid field this week fresh off Stanford and there are a number of players that will feel they can have a big week.
The market is being dominated by a few single priced favourites and I am going to pick one of those as an each way shout.
My pick is in what I consider to be the weaker 2nd half of the draw and is going to be Agnieska Radwanska, last years beaten Finalist.
Radwanska is the Number 3 seed here this week and was a Quarter Finalist in Stanford last week before being beaten by Sabine Lisicki in 3 sets.
The Polish player should be able to negotiate the 2nd and 3rd Rounds of the tournament without too many issues before a potential Quarter Final with Daniela Hantuchova- again Radwanska should have the edge over a player she has beaten 3 of the last 4 times they have met and she also holds a win over Hantuchova from this tournament last year.
The potential Semi Final opponent is less clear as that is a tough section to pick from, and whoever she meets could have had to play a lot of tennis up to that point in hot weather.
The other side of the draw provides some big threats in the forms of Vera Zvonareva, a recent winner in Baku, Sabine Lisicki, a Semi Finalist last week in Stanford, and Dominika Cibulkova. All 3 of those players are in a section meaning only 1 will make the Semi Final and it looks like a tough section to predict again.
In saying that, the odds on Zvonareva and Lisicki look plenty short considering their opposition and I would rather be on Radwanska at the same odds in what looks like a clearer path through.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 19.00 Bet365 (1 Unit E/W)
John Isner @ 10.00 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Agnieska Radwanska @ 9.00 Stan James (1 Unit E/W)
Wednesday, 27 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 27th Stanford and LA
Not a good start to the week in all honesty, with picks falling by the wayside and some results being disappointingly close to going my way and then falling apart.
I took the morning in Europe off as I didn't have any strong feelings from the matches at Gstaad, while I left Juan Carlos Ferrero alone in Umag in the hope my outright pick can win his match with Ivan Ljubicic and really open up the draw for a run to the Final for a 3rd consecutive year.
Hopefully the extra time to compose myself will make the next couple of picks from Stanford and LA end in a much more positive manner than they have been so far:
Double; Dominika Cibulkova vs Christina McHale and Maria Sharapova vs Daniela Hantuchova: Dominika Cibulkova is having a good season and could see herself making a real move up the rankings after a very disappointing Summer last season. She had a solid win over Kimiko Date-Krumm in the 1st Round and has the powerful game that should be well suited to the American hard courts.
Christina McHale is a tough proposition as she begins to improve her game but she has only won consecutive matches on the main tour on 2 occasions this season and was a 2nd Round loser here in Stanford last season.
Maria Sharapova has won 7 matches in a row against Daniela Hantuchova and has been one of the form players on the WTA Tour for around 3 months now. Hantuchova is no easy pass for the top players this season, but I expect Sharapova will eventually have too much for her counterpart and come through.
Double; Ryan Harrison vs Michael Russell and Ernests Gulbis vs Daniel Kosakowski: Ryan Harrison has been in fine form over the last 10 days, reaching the Final in Atlanta and coming from a set behind to beat Richard Berankis in the 1st Round here and is now becoming more comfortable in main tour matches.
Michael Russell is perhaps on the other side of the hill to Harrison now and has lost the last meeting with his young compratiot, a 3 set defeat on the hard courts in Hawaii. The match tonight may also go the distance but I will expect the younger man to get through.
Ernests Gulbis should have too much experience and talent for Daniel Kosakowski, a young UCLA attendee, although it can be risky backing the talented Latvian at a short price.
However, he should have the consistency to get through, most likely in straight sets.
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Marcos Baghdatis has not had the best time on the American hard courts so far this season with two 1st Round losses at Miami and Indian Wells, but last Summer was a different story as he got through to the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Cincinnati.
He has the game very suited to the faster surfaces and he has played well in recent weeks. He should have too much for Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has struggled a little bit this season.
Lu was destroyed by John Isner last week in Atlanta and, although having a good win over Robby Ginepri in the last Round, he has struggled for most of the season.
Baghdatis has won their only previous meeting in 2009, but I think Lu has slipped a little since then and the Cypriot should be good enough to come through.
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 games: Juan Martin Del Potro is my outright pick of the week from this tournament but he wont have it easy against a rejuvenated James Blake that performed solidly in Atlanta last week following on from a Challenger tour win.
Blake and Del Potro also took part in a 5 set match in Australia last year and this is a pick that can be brought in with a straight sets win as long as the sets are tight.
They key to the pick may well be how James Blake serves- if he can perform as he has been, it is possible that we can see at least 1 tie break here and that may be just enough to ensure the over comes in.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova and Maria Sharapova @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison and Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 6 Units
I took the morning in Europe off as I didn't have any strong feelings from the matches at Gstaad, while I left Juan Carlos Ferrero alone in Umag in the hope my outright pick can win his match with Ivan Ljubicic and really open up the draw for a run to the Final for a 3rd consecutive year.
Hopefully the extra time to compose myself will make the next couple of picks from Stanford and LA end in a much more positive manner than they have been so far:
Double; Dominika Cibulkova vs Christina McHale and Maria Sharapova vs Daniela Hantuchova: Dominika Cibulkova is having a good season and could see herself making a real move up the rankings after a very disappointing Summer last season. She had a solid win over Kimiko Date-Krumm in the 1st Round and has the powerful game that should be well suited to the American hard courts.
Christina McHale is a tough proposition as she begins to improve her game but she has only won consecutive matches on the main tour on 2 occasions this season and was a 2nd Round loser here in Stanford last season.
Maria Sharapova has won 7 matches in a row against Daniela Hantuchova and has been one of the form players on the WTA Tour for around 3 months now. Hantuchova is no easy pass for the top players this season, but I expect Sharapova will eventually have too much for her counterpart and come through.
Double; Ryan Harrison vs Michael Russell and Ernests Gulbis vs Daniel Kosakowski: Ryan Harrison has been in fine form over the last 10 days, reaching the Final in Atlanta and coming from a set behind to beat Richard Berankis in the 1st Round here and is now becoming more comfortable in main tour matches.
Michael Russell is perhaps on the other side of the hill to Harrison now and has lost the last meeting with his young compratiot, a 3 set defeat on the hard courts in Hawaii. The match tonight may also go the distance but I will expect the younger man to get through.
Ernests Gulbis should have too much experience and talent for Daniel Kosakowski, a young UCLA attendee, although it can be risky backing the talented Latvian at a short price.
However, he should have the consistency to get through, most likely in straight sets.
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games vs Yen-Hsun Lu: Marcos Baghdatis has not had the best time on the American hard courts so far this season with two 1st Round losses at Miami and Indian Wells, but last Summer was a different story as he got through to the Final in Washington and the Semi Final in Cincinnati.
He has the game very suited to the faster surfaces and he has played well in recent weeks. He should have too much for Yen-Hsun Lu, a player that has struggled a little bit this season.
Lu was destroyed by John Isner last week in Atlanta and, although having a good win over Robby Ginepri in the last Round, he has struggled for most of the season.
Baghdatis has won their only previous meeting in 2009, but I think Lu has slipped a little since then and the Cypriot should be good enough to come through.
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 games: Juan Martin Del Potro is my outright pick of the week from this tournament but he wont have it easy against a rejuvenated James Blake that performed solidly in Atlanta last week following on from a Challenger tour win.
Blake and Del Potro also took part in a 5 set match in Australia last year and this is a pick that can be brought in with a straight sets win as long as the sets are tight.
They key to the pick may well be how James Blake serves- if he can perform as he has been, it is possible that we can see at least 1 tie break here and that may be just enough to ensure the over comes in.
MY PICKS: Dominika Cibulkova and Maria Sharapova @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ryan Harrison and Ernests Gulbis @ 2.15 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
James Blake-Juan Martin Del Potro Over 20.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE UMAG/GSTAAD: - 1.94 Units
WEEKLY UPDATE STANFORD/LA: - 6 Units
Thursday, 23 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 4 Picks
The first 3 days of this tournament have been hard work to say the least, with matches being delayed thanks to the weather, while a few shocking results have hit the picks. That does not mean we are falling behind, but the profit margin is hardly worth writing home about.
I always think Wimbledon is one of the harder tournaments to back on a daily basis as many casual punters make sure the bookmakers are much tighter with the prices they offer. However, as we go further into the tournament, I expect prices will become more reasonable and perhaps more appealing.
On a different note, the two outright winners in the bottom half of the Women's draw have both moved through to the 3rd Round, although both Daniela Hantuchova and Vera Zvonareva have tough matches against Victoria Azarenka and Tsvetana Pironkova respectively.
Rafael Nadal also continued making his way through the draw, and I am not too worried that we are yet to see the best of his tennis as I hope he is saving that for next week. Tomas Berdych looks a threat in their potential Quarter Final, but the big serving Czech is yet to face real testing competition.
Now on to Day 4 Picks:
Marcos Baghdatis vs Andrea Seppi: Marcos Baghdatis almost blew a 2 set lead in the 1st Round against James Blake but showed tremendous resolve to actually get through that test in 5 sets, coming from a break down in the final set to pull the victory. Grass has suited his game in the past and I think he could be in line to have one of his more successful weeks of 2011.
Andrea Seppi had never really shown great ability on this surface in the past, but is coming in off winning Eastbourne last week. He came through the 1st Round against Alberto Montanes in relatively straightforward fashion, but I cant help thinking his serve is a little weak for grass and he could give Baghdatis too many chances to attack him off it.
Seppi leads the head to head 1-0, but I really feel the Cypriot can level that up here.
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Xavier Malisse has decent grass court pedigree and has the tools that will give him the chance to win his service games a little easier than it will be for Florian Mayer.
Mayer's serve is not the best, although he uses plenty of variation in his game to prove a nuisance for a little while. However, he is dealing with a player with plenty of experience of the surface and one that came through his 1st Round clash with ease.
On the other hand, Mayer struggled to get past Daniel Evans of Great Britain.
Malisse is also leading the head to head 1-0 so may not be as surprised with Mayer's game as someone who has never played him before might be.
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games vs Ricardo Mello: This is a pick for the reason that Llodra is more than capable on this surface as shown by his Doubles win here and he also employs a serve-volley tactic that pressurises his opponents.
Mello does not really play too many matches on this surface, and he does not get many wins. His 1st Round win over Frank Dancevic was a surprise, even more so as he came from 2 sets down to do so. That may have taken more out of him than may be expected at this early stage of the tournament and Llodra could take real advantage.
Mello's serve also has the tendency to fall away in sets, and Llodra could win this one with a bit to spare.
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games vs Lleyton Hewitt: This match had the potential to cause plenty of problems for Robin Soderling, but the expected rain could mean it is played under the roof of Centre Court, a situation that will favour the big hitting Swede in my opinion.
Much of Soderling's best tennis in his career has come indoors, and while the bounce may still cause some problems, that should tip the scales in his favour. The high ball toss will not be affected by wind, and Soderling will be able to hit through the ball.
Hewitt won in 4 sets against Kei Nishikori in the 1st Round, but it was a much tighter match than the scoreline even suggested. Nishikori will be kicking himself that he didnt do more when he had chances in the 2nd and 4th set, but Soderling is unlikely to be so easy on Hewitt.
A couple of years ago I would have favoured Hewitt, especially at the prices on offer. However, now I expect Soderling to come through in no more than 4 sets.
Roger Federer - 9 games vs Adrian Mannarino: The biggest issue here is Adrian Mannarino is a left handed player, although Roger Federer will be used to what they can do too.
Federer was serving brilliantly in the 1st Round, and any continuation of that will give him a great chance to overcome this spread. Mannarino gives up chances on his own serve and there is a good chance that Federer will win one set 6-1/6-2, a scoreline that should set him on his way to covering this spread.
Mannarino came through a 5 set match with Conor Niland to reach this stage and a chance to play on Centre Court. He will have to serve exceptionally well compared to recent weeks if he wants to keep this close, I just dont believe he will do so.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games @ 1.95 10Bet (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.83 Units (+ 0.24 Units Day 3)
I always think Wimbledon is one of the harder tournaments to back on a daily basis as many casual punters make sure the bookmakers are much tighter with the prices they offer. However, as we go further into the tournament, I expect prices will become more reasonable and perhaps more appealing.
On a different note, the two outright winners in the bottom half of the Women's draw have both moved through to the 3rd Round, although both Daniela Hantuchova and Vera Zvonareva have tough matches against Victoria Azarenka and Tsvetana Pironkova respectively.
Rafael Nadal also continued making his way through the draw, and I am not too worried that we are yet to see the best of his tennis as I hope he is saving that for next week. Tomas Berdych looks a threat in their potential Quarter Final, but the big serving Czech is yet to face real testing competition.
Now on to Day 4 Picks:
Marcos Baghdatis vs Andrea Seppi: Marcos Baghdatis almost blew a 2 set lead in the 1st Round against James Blake but showed tremendous resolve to actually get through that test in 5 sets, coming from a break down in the final set to pull the victory. Grass has suited his game in the past and I think he could be in line to have one of his more successful weeks of 2011.
Andrea Seppi had never really shown great ability on this surface in the past, but is coming in off winning Eastbourne last week. He came through the 1st Round against Alberto Montanes in relatively straightforward fashion, but I cant help thinking his serve is a little weak for grass and he could give Baghdatis too many chances to attack him off it.
Seppi leads the head to head 1-0, but I really feel the Cypriot can level that up here.
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Xavier Malisse has decent grass court pedigree and has the tools that will give him the chance to win his service games a little easier than it will be for Florian Mayer.
Mayer's serve is not the best, although he uses plenty of variation in his game to prove a nuisance for a little while. However, he is dealing with a player with plenty of experience of the surface and one that came through his 1st Round clash with ease.
On the other hand, Mayer struggled to get past Daniel Evans of Great Britain.
Malisse is also leading the head to head 1-0 so may not be as surprised with Mayer's game as someone who has never played him before might be.
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games vs Ricardo Mello: This is a pick for the reason that Llodra is more than capable on this surface as shown by his Doubles win here and he also employs a serve-volley tactic that pressurises his opponents.
Mello does not really play too many matches on this surface, and he does not get many wins. His 1st Round win over Frank Dancevic was a surprise, even more so as he came from 2 sets down to do so. That may have taken more out of him than may be expected at this early stage of the tournament and Llodra could take real advantage.
Mello's serve also has the tendency to fall away in sets, and Llodra could win this one with a bit to spare.
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games vs Lleyton Hewitt: This match had the potential to cause plenty of problems for Robin Soderling, but the expected rain could mean it is played under the roof of Centre Court, a situation that will favour the big hitting Swede in my opinion.
Much of Soderling's best tennis in his career has come indoors, and while the bounce may still cause some problems, that should tip the scales in his favour. The high ball toss will not be affected by wind, and Soderling will be able to hit through the ball.
Hewitt won in 4 sets against Kei Nishikori in the 1st Round, but it was a much tighter match than the scoreline even suggested. Nishikori will be kicking himself that he didnt do more when he had chances in the 2nd and 4th set, but Soderling is unlikely to be so easy on Hewitt.
A couple of years ago I would have favoured Hewitt, especially at the prices on offer. However, now I expect Soderling to come through in no more than 4 sets.
Roger Federer - 9 games vs Adrian Mannarino: The biggest issue here is Adrian Mannarino is a left handed player, although Roger Federer will be used to what they can do too.
Federer was serving brilliantly in the 1st Round, and any continuation of that will give him a great chance to overcome this spread. Mannarino gives up chances on his own serve and there is a good chance that Federer will win one set 6-1/6-2, a scoreline that should set him on his way to covering this spread.
Mannarino came through a 5 set match with Conor Niland to reach this stage and a chance to play on Centre Court. He will have to serve exceptionally well compared to recent weeks if he wants to keep this close, I just dont believe he will do so.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games @ 1.95 10Bet (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.83 Units (+ 0.24 Units Day 3)
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