Yesterday looked like it was going to develop into a tough day when Sabine Lisicki won by 6 games (I had picked her - 6.5 games) and David Ferrer won by 7 games (I had picked him - 7.5 games), but fortunately the other 4 picks I made came up trumps and provided further profit to ensure a solid start to the tournament.
We also saw David Ferrer move forward as my pick to win Quarter 4 and also a big outright price, and I was given further confidence by Rafael Nadal's struggles in the night game. The Spaniard may have won in straight sets, but should have lost sets 2 and 3 and I am glad I have backed against him with Andy Murray and Ferrer in this half of the draw.
Serena Williams also underlined the fact she is the favourite in the Women's draw with a commanding win last night. The only problem for Williams is the fact she is seeded low and will face a tough 3rd round match with Victoria Azarenka.
Day 3 is a little fractured due to the Hurricane warnings at the start of the week. Usually we would have seen a couple of Men's 2nd Round matches scheduled on this day, but instead we complete the 1st Round draw and the 2nd Round will begin tomorrow.
That has limited our choices a little, but I think I have found some profitable plays:
Andy Murray - 9.5 games vs Somdev Devvarman: Andy Murray is the last of the big 4 players in the Men's game to play his 1st Round match and also means he will have to win 7 matches in 12 days if he wants to win the tournament.
He plays an opponent that will look to chase down balls all day, but I think that is what will cost him in this match. Somdev Devvarman is essentially Andy Murray without any real weapons to cause an opponent too many problems. The Indian player will win against a lot of players due to their unforced errors, but I expect Murray's consistency will break him down today.
It is a big spread, but I think the way the two players play could see Murray win a set 6-1 and that may be enough to ensure he covers. I expect the British player to be fully focused knowing he needs to spend as little time on court as possible at this stage of the tournament.
John Isner win 3-1 in sets vs Marcos Baghdatis: These two players meet for the 3rd time in a little over a month, and it is John Isner who has won the two previous meetings over the Summer to increase the head to head 3-0 in his favour.
Marcos Baghdatis is not the same player who reached the Australian Open Final in 2005 with his flamboyant style and he is making far too many errors these days. He has a new coach in Miles Maclagen, but it may take some time for their styles to mesh and we may not see a better Baghdatis until the 2012 season.
Isner should win enough free points on his own serve to keep the Cypriot frustrated, although I think the enigmatic Baghdatis will win a set especially with the likelihood of a couple of tie breaks needed to separate the players.
Robin Soderling - 8.5 games vs Louk Sorensen: One Irish player exited the tournament in unfortunate circumstances yesterday, and I feel his compatriot will go the same way tonight although I do have a couple of concerns on Soderling's fitness.
Soderling has not played since winning a tournament in his home country a couple of weeks after Wimbledon because he has had a few wrist issues. He was dominant in that tournament in Bastad, including beat Tomas Berdych for the loss of 1 game, and I think he can be far too strong for Sorensen if he is good to go.
The lack of hard court tennis over the Summer is a concern, but last year he was beaten early in Toronto and Cincinnati before reaching the Quarter Final here.
Sorensen will be nervous as he is playing in only his 2nd Grand Slam after qualifying here. I expect Soderling may start slowly, and then slowly take control of the match and record a 7-5, 6-3, 6-2 win to cover the spread.
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games vs Alla Kudryavtseva: Wickmayer holds a 2-1 head to head record against Kudryavtseva, including a comfortable win here in the 1st Round in 2010.
Wickmayer had a comfortable 1st Round win this year and I think she will be too good for an opponent that has lost 7 of her last 10 matches, failing to win a set in any of those losses and losing comfortably.
The Belgian can be a little hit and miss with her style of play, but her 2 easy wins over Kudryavtseva should stand her in good stead to come through with a 6-2, 6-4 scoreline.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 9.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
John Isner win 3-1 in sets @ 3.75 Bodog (1 Unit)
Robin Soderling - 8.5 games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Yanina Wickmayer - 4.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
US OPEN UPDATE: 7-2, + 8.88 Units
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Showing posts with label Robin Soderling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Robin Soderling. Show all posts
Wednesday, 31 August 2011
Saturday, 16 July 2011
Tennis Picks July 16th
I was so angry with the way things had gone for me the day before yesterday that I could not bring myself to make more picks until I felt I was back on the straight and narrow.
The tournaments this week have not been kind to me, and I have been lacking the little bit of luck everyone who places a wager needs at any time.
Igor Andreev, Filippo Volandri, Gilles Simon and Mikhail Youzhny have all let me down from positions where they were winning the match before falling apart.
David Ferrer failed to cover by 0.5 games after missing numerous chances in his match with Pere Riba, and I just needed to take a break from the action.
The tournament in Stuttgart has seen all the seeded players exit the tournament and I think Juan Carlos Ferrero could take advantage and really show the rest of the tour that he is back to full health after missing a large chunk of the last 10 months through injury.
Over in Sweden it is a different story as the top 4 seeds all reached the Semi Finals- I still have Nicolas Almagro running in the outright market but need him to reverse a 0-7 head to head record with David Ferrer if he is going to get a chance to defend his title on Sunday.
Now on to the Semi Final Picks:
Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Federico Del Bonis and Robin Soderling vs Tomas Berdych: Both of these players are rightly the favourites to come through their respective Semi Finals and I believe both will do so.
Juan Carlos Ferrero has been playing some very good tennis this week and he has the experience to make things tough for Federico Del Bonis, a player that has never before reached this stage of a full ATP Tournament.
Del Bonis has done very well to come through the qualifiers to reach this stage, but has taken advantage of a kind draw and this will be his toughest test so far. The young Argentine has not really shown the levels of performances before and I expect Juan Carlos Ferrero to come through.
Robin Soderling has a 8-4 head to head record over Tomas Berdych and he has now won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another. I was slightly concerned with the illness Soderling had at Wimbledon, one that led to him pulling out of the Davis Cup tie for Sweden, but he has made great progress through the week and looks desperate to regain his title here after losing in the Final last year.
Tomas Berdych has been beating the lower ranked players with relative ease, but has struggled with the better players while not enjoying his best season. The big Czech should make things difficult but I think he is mentally more fragile than Soderling at this moment and I expect the Swede to make it through to a Final in his own country.
MY PICKS: Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero and Robin Soderling @ 1.92 Pinnacle (3 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: A very disappointing - 8.61 Units
The tournaments this week have not been kind to me, and I have been lacking the little bit of luck everyone who places a wager needs at any time.
Igor Andreev, Filippo Volandri, Gilles Simon and Mikhail Youzhny have all let me down from positions where they were winning the match before falling apart.
David Ferrer failed to cover by 0.5 games after missing numerous chances in his match with Pere Riba, and I just needed to take a break from the action.
The tournament in Stuttgart has seen all the seeded players exit the tournament and I think Juan Carlos Ferrero could take advantage and really show the rest of the tour that he is back to full health after missing a large chunk of the last 10 months through injury.
Over in Sweden it is a different story as the top 4 seeds all reached the Semi Finals- I still have Nicolas Almagro running in the outright market but need him to reverse a 0-7 head to head record with David Ferrer if he is going to get a chance to defend his title on Sunday.
Now on to the Semi Final Picks:
Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero vs Federico Del Bonis and Robin Soderling vs Tomas Berdych: Both of these players are rightly the favourites to come through their respective Semi Finals and I believe both will do so.
Juan Carlos Ferrero has been playing some very good tennis this week and he has the experience to make things tough for Federico Del Bonis, a player that has never before reached this stage of a full ATP Tournament.
Del Bonis has done very well to come through the qualifiers to reach this stage, but has taken advantage of a kind draw and this will be his toughest test so far. The young Argentine has not really shown the levels of performances before and I expect Juan Carlos Ferrero to come through.
Robin Soderling has a 8-4 head to head record over Tomas Berdych and he has now won 6 of the last 7 matches they have played against one another. I was slightly concerned with the illness Soderling had at Wimbledon, one that led to him pulling out of the Davis Cup tie for Sweden, but he has made great progress through the week and looks desperate to regain his title here after losing in the Final last year.
Tomas Berdych has been beating the lower ranked players with relative ease, but has struggled with the better players while not enjoying his best season. The big Czech should make things difficult but I think he is mentally more fragile than Soderling at this moment and I expect the Swede to make it through to a Final in his own country.
MY PICKS: Double; Juan Carlos Ferrero and Robin Soderling @ 1.92 Pinnacle (3 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: A very disappointing - 8.61 Units
Thursday, 23 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 4 Picks
The first 3 days of this tournament have been hard work to say the least, with matches being delayed thanks to the weather, while a few shocking results have hit the picks. That does not mean we are falling behind, but the profit margin is hardly worth writing home about.
I always think Wimbledon is one of the harder tournaments to back on a daily basis as many casual punters make sure the bookmakers are much tighter with the prices they offer. However, as we go further into the tournament, I expect prices will become more reasonable and perhaps more appealing.
On a different note, the two outright winners in the bottom half of the Women's draw have both moved through to the 3rd Round, although both Daniela Hantuchova and Vera Zvonareva have tough matches against Victoria Azarenka and Tsvetana Pironkova respectively.
Rafael Nadal also continued making his way through the draw, and I am not too worried that we are yet to see the best of his tennis as I hope he is saving that for next week. Tomas Berdych looks a threat in their potential Quarter Final, but the big serving Czech is yet to face real testing competition.
Now on to Day 4 Picks:
Marcos Baghdatis vs Andrea Seppi: Marcos Baghdatis almost blew a 2 set lead in the 1st Round against James Blake but showed tremendous resolve to actually get through that test in 5 sets, coming from a break down in the final set to pull the victory. Grass has suited his game in the past and I think he could be in line to have one of his more successful weeks of 2011.
Andrea Seppi had never really shown great ability on this surface in the past, but is coming in off winning Eastbourne last week. He came through the 1st Round against Alberto Montanes in relatively straightforward fashion, but I cant help thinking his serve is a little weak for grass and he could give Baghdatis too many chances to attack him off it.
Seppi leads the head to head 1-0, but I really feel the Cypriot can level that up here.
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Xavier Malisse has decent grass court pedigree and has the tools that will give him the chance to win his service games a little easier than it will be for Florian Mayer.
Mayer's serve is not the best, although he uses plenty of variation in his game to prove a nuisance for a little while. However, he is dealing with a player with plenty of experience of the surface and one that came through his 1st Round clash with ease.
On the other hand, Mayer struggled to get past Daniel Evans of Great Britain.
Malisse is also leading the head to head 1-0 so may not be as surprised with Mayer's game as someone who has never played him before might be.
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games vs Ricardo Mello: This is a pick for the reason that Llodra is more than capable on this surface as shown by his Doubles win here and he also employs a serve-volley tactic that pressurises his opponents.
Mello does not really play too many matches on this surface, and he does not get many wins. His 1st Round win over Frank Dancevic was a surprise, even more so as he came from 2 sets down to do so. That may have taken more out of him than may be expected at this early stage of the tournament and Llodra could take real advantage.
Mello's serve also has the tendency to fall away in sets, and Llodra could win this one with a bit to spare.
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games vs Lleyton Hewitt: This match had the potential to cause plenty of problems for Robin Soderling, but the expected rain could mean it is played under the roof of Centre Court, a situation that will favour the big hitting Swede in my opinion.
Much of Soderling's best tennis in his career has come indoors, and while the bounce may still cause some problems, that should tip the scales in his favour. The high ball toss will not be affected by wind, and Soderling will be able to hit through the ball.
Hewitt won in 4 sets against Kei Nishikori in the 1st Round, but it was a much tighter match than the scoreline even suggested. Nishikori will be kicking himself that he didnt do more when he had chances in the 2nd and 4th set, but Soderling is unlikely to be so easy on Hewitt.
A couple of years ago I would have favoured Hewitt, especially at the prices on offer. However, now I expect Soderling to come through in no more than 4 sets.
Roger Federer - 9 games vs Adrian Mannarino: The biggest issue here is Adrian Mannarino is a left handed player, although Roger Federer will be used to what they can do too.
Federer was serving brilliantly in the 1st Round, and any continuation of that will give him a great chance to overcome this spread. Mannarino gives up chances on his own serve and there is a good chance that Federer will win one set 6-1/6-2, a scoreline that should set him on his way to covering this spread.
Mannarino came through a 5 set match with Conor Niland to reach this stage and a chance to play on Centre Court. He will have to serve exceptionally well compared to recent weeks if he wants to keep this close, I just dont believe he will do so.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games @ 1.95 10Bet (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.83 Units (+ 0.24 Units Day 3)
I always think Wimbledon is one of the harder tournaments to back on a daily basis as many casual punters make sure the bookmakers are much tighter with the prices they offer. However, as we go further into the tournament, I expect prices will become more reasonable and perhaps more appealing.
On a different note, the two outright winners in the bottom half of the Women's draw have both moved through to the 3rd Round, although both Daniela Hantuchova and Vera Zvonareva have tough matches against Victoria Azarenka and Tsvetana Pironkova respectively.
Rafael Nadal also continued making his way through the draw, and I am not too worried that we are yet to see the best of his tennis as I hope he is saving that for next week. Tomas Berdych looks a threat in their potential Quarter Final, but the big serving Czech is yet to face real testing competition.
Now on to Day 4 Picks:
Marcos Baghdatis vs Andrea Seppi: Marcos Baghdatis almost blew a 2 set lead in the 1st Round against James Blake but showed tremendous resolve to actually get through that test in 5 sets, coming from a break down in the final set to pull the victory. Grass has suited his game in the past and I think he could be in line to have one of his more successful weeks of 2011.
Andrea Seppi had never really shown great ability on this surface in the past, but is coming in off winning Eastbourne last week. He came through the 1st Round against Alberto Montanes in relatively straightforward fashion, but I cant help thinking his serve is a little weak for grass and he could give Baghdatis too many chances to attack him off it.
Seppi leads the head to head 1-0, but I really feel the Cypriot can level that up here.
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games vs Florian Mayer: Xavier Malisse has decent grass court pedigree and has the tools that will give him the chance to win his service games a little easier than it will be for Florian Mayer.
Mayer's serve is not the best, although he uses plenty of variation in his game to prove a nuisance for a little while. However, he is dealing with a player with plenty of experience of the surface and one that came through his 1st Round clash with ease.
On the other hand, Mayer struggled to get past Daniel Evans of Great Britain.
Malisse is also leading the head to head 1-0 so may not be as surprised with Mayer's game as someone who has never played him before might be.
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games vs Ricardo Mello: This is a pick for the reason that Llodra is more than capable on this surface as shown by his Doubles win here and he also employs a serve-volley tactic that pressurises his opponents.
Mello does not really play too many matches on this surface, and he does not get many wins. His 1st Round win over Frank Dancevic was a surprise, even more so as he came from 2 sets down to do so. That may have taken more out of him than may be expected at this early stage of the tournament and Llodra could take real advantage.
Mello's serve also has the tendency to fall away in sets, and Llodra could win this one with a bit to spare.
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games vs Lleyton Hewitt: This match had the potential to cause plenty of problems for Robin Soderling, but the expected rain could mean it is played under the roof of Centre Court, a situation that will favour the big hitting Swede in my opinion.
Much of Soderling's best tennis in his career has come indoors, and while the bounce may still cause some problems, that should tip the scales in his favour. The high ball toss will not be affected by wind, and Soderling will be able to hit through the ball.
Hewitt won in 4 sets against Kei Nishikori in the 1st Round, but it was a much tighter match than the scoreline even suggested. Nishikori will be kicking himself that he didnt do more when he had chances in the 2nd and 4th set, but Soderling is unlikely to be so easy on Hewitt.
A couple of years ago I would have favoured Hewitt, especially at the prices on offer. However, now I expect Soderling to come through in no more than 4 sets.
Roger Federer - 9 games vs Adrian Mannarino: The biggest issue here is Adrian Mannarino is a left handed player, although Roger Federer will be used to what they can do too.
Federer was serving brilliantly in the 1st Round, and any continuation of that will give him a great chance to overcome this spread. Mannarino gives up chances on his own serve and there is a good chance that Federer will win one set 6-1/6-2, a scoreline that should set him on his way to covering this spread.
Mannarino came through a 5 set match with Conor Niland to reach this stage and a chance to play on Centre Court. He will have to serve exceptionally well compared to recent weeks if he wants to keep this close, I just dont believe he will do so.
MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Xavier Malisse - 2.5 games @ 1.95 10Bet (2 Units)
Michael Llodra - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Robin Soderling - 4.5 games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 9 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
WEEKLY UPDATE: + 0.83 Units (+ 0.24 Units Day 3)
Tuesday, 21 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 2 Picks
Well the first day of the tournament did not go to plan after Ekaterina Makarova put pay to my fourfold. To say I was disappointed would be an understatement and once again shows how weak the WTA Tour really is.
This is something that the analysts and experts seem to like to ignore when it comes down to the crunch, but Women's tennis is definitely at a very low point and is possibly in the worst shape I remember. It is hard to envision Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal being universally talked about as Grand Slam Champions if they had taken a year off the tour through injury and barely played a match in that time, something the Ladies Tournament has in the form of Serena Williams this year.
Too many of the players on the WTA Tour go about their business in the same mould- bludgeoning the ball at every opportunity and not really constructing points in the manner they should be. Unsurprisingly, it is the older heads that are expected to dominate the tournament again this year.
The Fernando Verdasco-Radek Stepanek match was postponed until tomorrow thanks to the rain in the afternoon. The weather is expected to be good all day as the tournament organisers look to get back on schedule with a lot of tennis expected all day.
Now on to Day 2 Picks:
Men's Treble: Marcos Baghdatis vs James Blake, Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and John Isner vs Nicolas Mahut: All 3 of these guys are picked to come out as winners tomorrow for the following reasons.
Marcos Baghdatis has plenty of good form on the grass at Wimbledon in the past and played a solid tournament in Eastbourne last week. He has not really ever reached the level of success people expected after reaching the Australian Open Final, but is a former Quarter Finalist here.
James Blake is not the force he used to be and has spent much of his time on the Challenger Tour this season. The American has also had a hard time at Wimbledon during his peak years and I find it hard to see him winning 3 of 5 sets in this match.
Nicolas Almagro has the tools to be a success on the grass, although he has been a little out of form in recent matches. However, he has a 2-1 head to head over Jarkko Nieminen, a player who is definitely coming to the end of his career. It could be tight, but I think the Spaniard can come through.
John Isner and Nicolas Mahut meet again after their record breaking match a year ago. Isner's serve is a real weapon on this surface, while Mahut is another player on the last stretch of his career. I can see some tie breaks here, but think Isner is better off the ground while his serve is more effective.
Robin Soderling win 3-1 in sets vs Philipp Petzschner: I mentioned Philipp Petzschner as being one of my dark horses before the tournament started this year, but he has been given a really tough draw here. Robin Soderling is another who has all the tools to be a success on the grass courts, although I think Petzschner will make it difficult and steal a set off the Number 5 seed.
They have met once before on grass, Soderling winning 2-1 in sets in Halle, and I think Soderling's game is solid enough to take care of the German with a little blip in between.
Kei Nishikori win vs Lleyton Hewitt: There is still a doubt whether Hewitt will even play after pulling out with an injury at Eastbourne last week. If he does get to play, the veteran will face a tough opponent in the form of Kei Nishikori who is fresh off a Semi Final at Eastbourne.
Hewitt suffered a foot injury, and you can be sure Nishikori will look to make him play all day long and that could be the difference here. Brad Gilbert is Nishikori's coach and will surely have a plan to keep Hewitt moving on that injury.
Women's Treble: Julia Goerges vs Anabel Medina Garrigues, Lucie Safarova vs Lucie Hradecka and Tsvetana Pironkova vs Camila Giorgi: I have picked these three players for the following reasons:
Julia Goerges has been playing very well this year and can take advantage of the faster surface against a player that has not usually enjoyed much success on the grass. Goerges has only played 1 grass court match this year when losing to Ana Ivanovic in Eastbourne, but should have the edge if she can control her service action.
Lucie Safarova has a 1-0 head to head record over Lucie Hradecka and also has the lefty serve that can cause problems on any surface. Safarova also has a big game that can cause damage on the faster surfaces and she should be able to take advantage here.
Tsvetana Pironkova was a Semi Finalist here last year and her odds are clearly bigger because of her bad run of form. However, she pushed Serena Williams last week in Eastbourne and takes the court against an opponent that has yet to play on the main tour in her career. I expect Pironkova to expose these nerves that Camila Giorgi is sure to feel and come through.
MY PICKS: Men's Treble: Marcos Baghdatis, Nicolas Almagro and John Isner @ 3.09 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Robin Soderling win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kei Nishikori @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Women's Treble: Julia Goerges, Lucie Safarova and Tsvetana Pironkova @ 3.24 BetFred (1 Unit)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units) Still to run from Day 1 Picks
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: - 1 Unit (after Day 1)
This is something that the analysts and experts seem to like to ignore when it comes down to the crunch, but Women's tennis is definitely at a very low point and is possibly in the worst shape I remember. It is hard to envision Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal being universally talked about as Grand Slam Champions if they had taken a year off the tour through injury and barely played a match in that time, something the Ladies Tournament has in the form of Serena Williams this year.
Too many of the players on the WTA Tour go about their business in the same mould- bludgeoning the ball at every opportunity and not really constructing points in the manner they should be. Unsurprisingly, it is the older heads that are expected to dominate the tournament again this year.
The Fernando Verdasco-Radek Stepanek match was postponed until tomorrow thanks to the rain in the afternoon. The weather is expected to be good all day as the tournament organisers look to get back on schedule with a lot of tennis expected all day.
Now on to Day 2 Picks:
Men's Treble: Marcos Baghdatis vs James Blake, Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and John Isner vs Nicolas Mahut: All 3 of these guys are picked to come out as winners tomorrow for the following reasons.
Marcos Baghdatis has plenty of good form on the grass at Wimbledon in the past and played a solid tournament in Eastbourne last week. He has not really ever reached the level of success people expected after reaching the Australian Open Final, but is a former Quarter Finalist here.
James Blake is not the force he used to be and has spent much of his time on the Challenger Tour this season. The American has also had a hard time at Wimbledon during his peak years and I find it hard to see him winning 3 of 5 sets in this match.
Nicolas Almagro has the tools to be a success on the grass, although he has been a little out of form in recent matches. However, he has a 2-1 head to head over Jarkko Nieminen, a player who is definitely coming to the end of his career. It could be tight, but I think the Spaniard can come through.
John Isner and Nicolas Mahut meet again after their record breaking match a year ago. Isner's serve is a real weapon on this surface, while Mahut is another player on the last stretch of his career. I can see some tie breaks here, but think Isner is better off the ground while his serve is more effective.
Robin Soderling win 3-1 in sets vs Philipp Petzschner: I mentioned Philipp Petzschner as being one of my dark horses before the tournament started this year, but he has been given a really tough draw here. Robin Soderling is another who has all the tools to be a success on the grass courts, although I think Petzschner will make it difficult and steal a set off the Number 5 seed.
They have met once before on grass, Soderling winning 2-1 in sets in Halle, and I think Soderling's game is solid enough to take care of the German with a little blip in between.
Kei Nishikori win vs Lleyton Hewitt: There is still a doubt whether Hewitt will even play after pulling out with an injury at Eastbourne last week. If he does get to play, the veteran will face a tough opponent in the form of Kei Nishikori who is fresh off a Semi Final at Eastbourne.
Hewitt suffered a foot injury, and you can be sure Nishikori will look to make him play all day long and that could be the difference here. Brad Gilbert is Nishikori's coach and will surely have a plan to keep Hewitt moving on that injury.
Women's Treble: Julia Goerges vs Anabel Medina Garrigues, Lucie Safarova vs Lucie Hradecka and Tsvetana Pironkova vs Camila Giorgi: I have picked these three players for the following reasons:
Julia Goerges has been playing very well this year and can take advantage of the faster surface against a player that has not usually enjoyed much success on the grass. Goerges has only played 1 grass court match this year when losing to Ana Ivanovic in Eastbourne, but should have the edge if she can control her service action.
Lucie Safarova has a 1-0 head to head record over Lucie Hradecka and also has the lefty serve that can cause problems on any surface. Safarova also has a big game that can cause damage on the faster surfaces and she should be able to take advantage here.
Tsvetana Pironkova was a Semi Finalist here last year and her odds are clearly bigger because of her bad run of form. However, she pushed Serena Williams last week in Eastbourne and takes the court against an opponent that has yet to play on the main tour in her career. I expect Pironkova to expose these nerves that Camila Giorgi is sure to feel and come through.
MY PICKS: Men's Treble: Marcos Baghdatis, Nicolas Almagro and John Isner @ 3.09 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Robin Soderling win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kei Nishikori @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Women's Treble: Julia Goerges, Lucie Safarova and Tsvetana Pironkova @ 3.24 BetFred (1 Unit)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units) Still to run from Day 1 Picks
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: - 1 Unit (after Day 1)
Tuesday, 31 May 2011
French Open Day 11 Picks
Ouch!! That is the only way I can describe Day 10 for my picks which was the worst day of the tournament so far. Both Andu Murray and Roger Federer missed covering the spread by 2 games combined, while Francesca Schiavone fought back wonderfully well to win in 3 sets.
These things will happen in a 2 week tournament, but we still remain in a very strong position overall for the tournament and must look to bounce back in the correct fashion.
The Men's draw also gave us a wonderful Semi Final for Friday as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer both reached that stage. While the initial drama will be surrounding Djokovic's unbeaten start to the season, we also have the intrigue of seeing if Federer is still a genuine threat at the business end of Slams as well as the chance for Djokovic to take over the World Number 1 Ranking in time for Wimbledon with a win.
The Women's draw sees the reigning Champion, Schiavone, take on France's last hope in their Slam in the form of Marion Bartoli. My initial reaction is again how much Schiavone can get Bartoli on the move as the French Woman is probably better off the ground.
That should be an entertaining Semi Final on Thursday as the tournament draws to a close.
Now on to Day 11 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Robin Soderling: I am sure we have all read up on Nadal's private thoughts, thoughts that he made very public after his win over Ivan Ljubicic on Monday. Nadal admits he is not playing well but this is coming from someone who believes he has only been 'so-so' in previous trips to Paris.
It is clear that Nadal is not his usual dominating self at the moment, but he is a Champion that usually reserves his best tennis until the latter end of tournaments. Now he faces a huge test in the form of Robin Soderling.
Soderling is the only man to have beaten Nadal here in Paris, and has been playing pretty solid tennis. However, he has checked out of some sets this past 10 days and needs to keep to a high level if he wants to surprise Nadal.
Nadal will also have added motivation from the fact that he is not the biggest fan of Soderling and they have had issues in the past. You sense this will push the Spaniard on to play his best match of the tournament and perhaps see him produce something similar to either his win here at Roland Garros last year or at Wimbledon.
Soderling may take a set, but I see Nadal progressing here and covering the spread.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games vs Juan Ignacio Chela: The real issue about this match up is how well Andy Murray will recover to play again so soon after his win over Victor Troicki. His game matches up so well against Chela's, as proven in victories over the Argentinian in 2009 and 2010 here, both with plenty to spare.
Murray has admitted there is a partial tear in his right ankle, but he also feels he can get through the tournament (I wouldnt expect him to play at Queens next week).
Chela is the oldest man left in the draw and has done remarkably well to get through to this Quarter Final, especially considering he has had to negotiate two 5 set matches already. This run would be seen as a bonus as his career winds down and I struggle to see how he can be really competitive here.
Chela's serve is a weakness, while he doesnt use the guile that others do. I also feel Murray will control the points for the most part and its hard to see Chela winning more than 11 games here.
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games vs Na Li: I will admit I got Na Li's match with Petra Kvitova the wrong way around, but I still think the Chinese Number 1 is not built for clay and will really struggle here. Li herself has admitted clay is not her favourite surface and she now meets one of the hottest women on the tour in the shape of Victoria Azarenka.
Azarenka looks like the injury that forced her retirement in Rome is behind her, and she is barely allowing opponents to get involved in sets.
Li has won 3 of their 4 meetings on the tour, including at the Australian Open earlier this year, but none of their meetings have come on clay, a surface that favours Azarenka more.
I just feel the nature of the surface allows Azarenka more time to dictate the points and I expect she will come through in straight sets.
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: Maria Sharapova has been consistent this season and now looks like she is smelling the chance to win yet another Major. There has been a little inconsistency in her performances so far, but the win in Rome showed Sharapova is ready to take this title home.
Sharapova has beaten the likes of Agnieska Radwanska, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki over the last couple of tournaments and has proved she can handle the slower stuff.
Andrea Petkovic is a real example for all those that work hard everyday that you can be rewarded. This is the 2nd Major of the season that she has reached the Quarter Finals and Petkovic also has the confidence behind her having won in Strasbourg in the last tournament before Paris.
However, Petkovic has not had an easy tournament and this is by far the hardest test she would have faced on the clay courts this season. The head to head is also 2-1 in favour of Sharapova, although none of the matches took place on clay, and I think the Russian will be able to overpower her opponent here.
I just noticed that I am picking all 4 favourites to cover the spreads tomorrow- Both Nadal and Azarenka are more on hunches and feeling of the match ups; Nadal has struggled in this tournament and Li has a winning record over Azarenka.
I just feel that all 4 favourites have a little extra on their opponents and can make it through to the next Round without having too many bumps along the way. Nadal and Murray may lose tight sets, but I think their prowess over their opponents will let them come through while clearing the handicap.
Both Azarenka and Sharapova have clear upsides on their opponents and the Women's game tends to throw up a few more easy sets which means even the loss of a set can be overcome.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 12.27 Units (- 7 Units Day 10 eurghhhh)
These things will happen in a 2 week tournament, but we still remain in a very strong position overall for the tournament and must look to bounce back in the correct fashion.
The Men's draw also gave us a wonderful Semi Final for Friday as Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer both reached that stage. While the initial drama will be surrounding Djokovic's unbeaten start to the season, we also have the intrigue of seeing if Federer is still a genuine threat at the business end of Slams as well as the chance for Djokovic to take over the World Number 1 Ranking in time for Wimbledon with a win.
The Women's draw sees the reigning Champion, Schiavone, take on France's last hope in their Slam in the form of Marion Bartoli. My initial reaction is again how much Schiavone can get Bartoli on the move as the French Woman is probably better off the ground.
That should be an entertaining Semi Final on Thursday as the tournament draws to a close.
Now on to Day 11 Picks:
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games vs Robin Soderling: I am sure we have all read up on Nadal's private thoughts, thoughts that he made very public after his win over Ivan Ljubicic on Monday. Nadal admits he is not playing well but this is coming from someone who believes he has only been 'so-so' in previous trips to Paris.
It is clear that Nadal is not his usual dominating self at the moment, but he is a Champion that usually reserves his best tennis until the latter end of tournaments. Now he faces a huge test in the form of Robin Soderling.
Soderling is the only man to have beaten Nadal here in Paris, and has been playing pretty solid tennis. However, he has checked out of some sets this past 10 days and needs to keep to a high level if he wants to surprise Nadal.
Nadal will also have added motivation from the fact that he is not the biggest fan of Soderling and they have had issues in the past. You sense this will push the Spaniard on to play his best match of the tournament and perhaps see him produce something similar to either his win here at Roland Garros last year or at Wimbledon.
Soderling may take a set, but I see Nadal progressing here and covering the spread.
Andy Murray - 6.5 games vs Juan Ignacio Chela: The real issue about this match up is how well Andy Murray will recover to play again so soon after his win over Victor Troicki. His game matches up so well against Chela's, as proven in victories over the Argentinian in 2009 and 2010 here, both with plenty to spare.
Murray has admitted there is a partial tear in his right ankle, but he also feels he can get through the tournament (I wouldnt expect him to play at Queens next week).
Chela is the oldest man left in the draw and has done remarkably well to get through to this Quarter Final, especially considering he has had to negotiate two 5 set matches already. This run would be seen as a bonus as his career winds down and I struggle to see how he can be really competitive here.
Chela's serve is a weakness, while he doesnt use the guile that others do. I also feel Murray will control the points for the most part and its hard to see Chela winning more than 11 games here.
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games vs Na Li: I will admit I got Na Li's match with Petra Kvitova the wrong way around, but I still think the Chinese Number 1 is not built for clay and will really struggle here. Li herself has admitted clay is not her favourite surface and she now meets one of the hottest women on the tour in the shape of Victoria Azarenka.
Azarenka looks like the injury that forced her retirement in Rome is behind her, and she is barely allowing opponents to get involved in sets.
Li has won 3 of their 4 meetings on the tour, including at the Australian Open earlier this year, but none of their meetings have come on clay, a surface that favours Azarenka more.
I just feel the nature of the surface allows Azarenka more time to dictate the points and I expect she will come through in straight sets.
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games vs Andrea Petkovic: Maria Sharapova has been consistent this season and now looks like she is smelling the chance to win yet another Major. There has been a little inconsistency in her performances so far, but the win in Rome showed Sharapova is ready to take this title home.
Sharapova has beaten the likes of Agnieska Radwanska, Sam Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki over the last couple of tournaments and has proved she can handle the slower stuff.
Andrea Petkovic is a real example for all those that work hard everyday that you can be rewarded. This is the 2nd Major of the season that she has reached the Quarter Finals and Petkovic also has the confidence behind her having won in Strasbourg in the last tournament before Paris.
However, Petkovic has not had an easy tournament and this is by far the hardest test she would have faced on the clay courts this season. The head to head is also 2-1 in favour of Sharapova, although none of the matches took place on clay, and I think the Russian will be able to overpower her opponent here.
I just noticed that I am picking all 4 favourites to cover the spreads tomorrow- Both Nadal and Azarenka are more on hunches and feeling of the match ups; Nadal has struggled in this tournament and Li has a winning record over Azarenka.
I just feel that all 4 favourites have a little extra on their opponents and can make it through to the next Round without having too many bumps along the way. Nadal and Murray may lose tight sets, but I think their prowess over their opponents will let them come through while clearing the handicap.
Both Azarenka and Sharapova have clear upsides on their opponents and the Women's game tends to throw up a few more easy sets which means even the loss of a set can be overcome.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 6.5 games @ 1.83 Stan James (3 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games @ 2.10 BetFred (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 12.27 Units (- 7 Units Day 10 eurghhhh)
Monday, 30 May 2011
French Open Day 9 Picks
The French Open tournament looks like it will put together some strong matches as the clay season draws to a close. There are some real surprising names left in the draw, but that should make it a little easier for the big names to meet each other.
Fabio Fognini is the biggest surprise, in my opinion, as he has never shown the commitment in previous tournaments as he has here. The Italian has reached the Quarter Finals but is surely not going to be the man to end Novak Djokovic's winning streak.
Both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have made serene progress in the last couple of days, although Andy Murray's ankle turn is going to be tested against Victor Troicki. I would not be surprised if Murray pulls out of all tournaments in the lead up to Wimbledon if the ankle is really sore.
The Women's draw has lost the top 3 seeds, but there are still some real dangerous players left that could take the title home. It should be a fun week ahead of us.
The picks went 4-2-1 over the last 2 days which has led to another bunch of profit to add to our bank. Hopefully we can make this a very good tournament and not give any profit back to the bookmakers.
Now on to Day 9 Picks:
Robin Soderling - 5.5 games vs Gilles Simon: I underestimated Gilles Simon in the last Round against Mardy Fish, but I dont think I am making that mistake again. This time I am going against the Frenchman because I believe is going up against the better player in most departments.
Soderling also has a 5-2 head to head record against Simon (1-0 on clay) and for the most part has been an easy winner.
It is possible that Simon steals a set, but I think Soderling will come through and is likely to be able to win 1 of the 3 sets with a bit to spare which will lead to him covering this spread.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games vs Na Li: Petra Kvitova is a real dark horse to win the Women''s title- she has a big game off the ground and is capable of blowing her opponents off court.
Kvitova does face the experience Na Li, but beat her opponent in Madrid a couple of weeks ago with minimum fuss. Kvitova has also demolished her opponents in the previous Rounds and I think she is ready to make another big impact in a Grand Slam.
Li should not be underestimated and the Australian Open Runner Up will not give in easily, I just think she will struggle to keep Kvitova under control and will be beaten.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs Victor Troicki: This is possibly a dodgy pick considering the question marks surrounding Murray's injury, but I am of the belief the British Number 1 will not risk his chances at Wimbledon by playing on an injured ankle. He must feel his better chance of winning a slam is in London in 3 weeks time rather than here at the French, even with the kind path to the Semi Finals, and so I am backing him to cover the spread if he does play.
The ankle injury also looked more like one of surprise, rather than any long term damage, and I do expect Murray to play.
Murray leads the head to head 3-0, including a win at Wimbledon, and has yet to drop a set against Troicki. I find Murray's game is likely to be too consistent for Troicki, and I believe the Serb does not have the patience to beat Murray on clay.
Normally I would think this spread would be at least a couple of games higher, so the value is on Murray here.
MY PICKS: Robin Soderling - 5.5 games @ 2.20 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 18.87 Units (+ 4.85 Units Day 7 and Day 8)
Fabio Fognini is the biggest surprise, in my opinion, as he has never shown the commitment in previous tournaments as he has here. The Italian has reached the Quarter Finals but is surely not going to be the man to end Novak Djokovic's winning streak.
Both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have made serene progress in the last couple of days, although Andy Murray's ankle turn is going to be tested against Victor Troicki. I would not be surprised if Murray pulls out of all tournaments in the lead up to Wimbledon if the ankle is really sore.
The Women's draw has lost the top 3 seeds, but there are still some real dangerous players left that could take the title home. It should be a fun week ahead of us.
The picks went 4-2-1 over the last 2 days which has led to another bunch of profit to add to our bank. Hopefully we can make this a very good tournament and not give any profit back to the bookmakers.
Now on to Day 9 Picks:
Robin Soderling - 5.5 games vs Gilles Simon: I underestimated Gilles Simon in the last Round against Mardy Fish, but I dont think I am making that mistake again. This time I am going against the Frenchman because I believe is going up against the better player in most departments.
Soderling also has a 5-2 head to head record against Simon (1-0 on clay) and for the most part has been an easy winner.
It is possible that Simon steals a set, but I think Soderling will come through and is likely to be able to win 1 of the 3 sets with a bit to spare which will lead to him covering this spread.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games vs Na Li: Petra Kvitova is a real dark horse to win the Women''s title- she has a big game off the ground and is capable of blowing her opponents off court.
Kvitova does face the experience Na Li, but beat her opponent in Madrid a couple of weeks ago with minimum fuss. Kvitova has also demolished her opponents in the previous Rounds and I think she is ready to make another big impact in a Grand Slam.
Li should not be underestimated and the Australian Open Runner Up will not give in easily, I just think she will struggle to keep Kvitova under control and will be beaten.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs Victor Troicki: This is possibly a dodgy pick considering the question marks surrounding Murray's injury, but I am of the belief the British Number 1 will not risk his chances at Wimbledon by playing on an injured ankle. He must feel his better chance of winning a slam is in London in 3 weeks time rather than here at the French, even with the kind path to the Semi Finals, and so I am backing him to cover the spread if he does play.
The ankle injury also looked more like one of surprise, rather than any long term damage, and I do expect Murray to play.
Murray leads the head to head 3-0, including a win at Wimbledon, and has yet to drop a set against Troicki. I find Murray's game is likely to be too consistent for Troicki, and I believe the Serb does not have the patience to beat Murray on clay.
Normally I would think this spread would be at least a couple of games higher, so the value is on Murray here.
MY PICKS: Robin Soderling - 5.5 games @ 2.20 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 18.87 Units (+ 4.85 Units Day 7 and Day 8)
Saturday, 28 May 2011
French Open Day 7 Picks
Another interesting day has gone by at the French Open 2011 and the Men's draw is shaping up particularly nicely.
Roger Federer once again made easy progress through the draw although I do expect him to be tested a little more by Stanislas Wawrinka in the next round. Federer has quietly gone about his business as everyone spent more time talking about Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Federer has won here before and looks more than comfortable with his situation right now.
Another player making calm and easy progress through the draw is David Ferrer, arguably the 3rd most consistent performer on the red dirt this season behind Nadal and Djokovic.
Ferrer looked like he was coming to the end of a very productive career at the end of 2009, but has shown some real talent over the last 18 months as his window for winning a Slam closes rapidly. I dont believe Ferrer will win here, but a match with Federer in the Quarter Final is certain to excite.
The other big news of the day in the Men's draw was the meeting between Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro. First the match had to be moved from the Philippe Chatrier court because of the long nature of the first 3 matches on that court- that in turn caused disruptions as fans clamoured to get into the Suzanne Lenglen court to watch the game of the day.
I have stated before that Del Potro should have been in the position Djokovic is in if he had not injured his wrist and been forced to miss almost a year of action. The first 2 sets of the match did not disappoint and I am intrigued if Del Potro can continue his level of play and upset Djokovic.
Personally I am excited to see Del Potro playing the type of tennis he is- I did not expect his best stuff until the Summer hard court swing and the US Open, yet he is well on his way and is going to be a real danger for the rest of the season even if he does not complete the surprise win tomorrow.
The Women's draw saw the Number 1 seed, Caroline Wozniaki, get thumped out of the tournament by a Daniela Hantuchova playing her best tennis. That means the top 2 seeds are out and the draw remains open for anyone to win.
Wozniaki once again proved she is anything but the best player in the World and it must have the WTA Tour questioning their ranking system.
The picks did not have a good day yesterday with the Wozniaki defeat. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez was another disappointment, but fortunately Federer's easy win over Janko Tipsarevic left me with a small loss on the day and the Djokovic 3-1 set bet still running.
On to Day 7 Picks:
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games vs Leonardo Mayer: Robin Soderling should be very happy with the conditions expected at Roland Garros tomorrow and must be pleased with his draw as he faced Leonard Mayer, a player that has played a lot of tennis over the last 10 days after missing weeks at a time.
Mayer might be ranked outside the top 200, but he is a clay court specialist with his best results coming on the surface. Last season it took Marin Cilic 5 sets to beat him here in Paris.
Mayer also had a solid win over Marcos Baghdatis in the last round but I do wonder if the lack of competitive tennis over the last 6 weeks is going to take a toll on him against Soderling.
They have met once before when Soderling won 3 tight sets in the Davis Cup last season on an indoor hard court. However, the Swede has looked good so far in the tournament and I expect he will come through in straight sets and cover the spread.
Ivan Ljubicic v Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games: Both of these men have made relatively smooth progress through to this Round 3 meeting with the winner getting the 'reward' of a likely meeting with Rafael Nadal in Round 4.
Both have big games and could be rewarded by the conditions in Paris this year. The chances for a tie break or 2 are large with the way they can serve, while Fernando Verdasco is prone to mental lapses that costs him sets.
This has a tight 4 setter written all over it, and could finish either way. However, the Over 38.5 games could come into play if the tie breaks occur as I expect they will.
Mardy Fish vs Gilles Simon: Now I could be reading this matchup completely wrong, but I was pleasantly surprised to see Mardy Fish being quoted as the big underdog in this match.
Fish has improved tenfold on clay courts, as his loss of weight has improved his movement around the court. The conditions here also favour Fish's game, with the balls flying through the air and making it much more like a hard court meeting.
Simon will look to make balls all day, but Fish has the edge when it comes to serving and with his groundstrokes. Simon definitely has the better movement and his defensive game could extract mistakes from the Fish racquet.
It is possible this match could be dragged into a 5th set as they are evenly matched, so I cant see why Fish is the big underdog.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets @ 3.75 (1 Unit) Still Running from Yesterday
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic-Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.62 Unibet (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 14.02 Units (- 0.8 Units Day 6)
Roger Federer once again made easy progress through the draw although I do expect him to be tested a little more by Stanislas Wawrinka in the next round. Federer has quietly gone about his business as everyone spent more time talking about Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic. Federer has won here before and looks more than comfortable with his situation right now.
Another player making calm and easy progress through the draw is David Ferrer, arguably the 3rd most consistent performer on the red dirt this season behind Nadal and Djokovic.
Ferrer looked like he was coming to the end of a very productive career at the end of 2009, but has shown some real talent over the last 18 months as his window for winning a Slam closes rapidly. I dont believe Ferrer will win here, but a match with Federer in the Quarter Final is certain to excite.
The other big news of the day in the Men's draw was the meeting between Djokovic and Juan Martin Del Potro. First the match had to be moved from the Philippe Chatrier court because of the long nature of the first 3 matches on that court- that in turn caused disruptions as fans clamoured to get into the Suzanne Lenglen court to watch the game of the day.
I have stated before that Del Potro should have been in the position Djokovic is in if he had not injured his wrist and been forced to miss almost a year of action. The first 2 sets of the match did not disappoint and I am intrigued if Del Potro can continue his level of play and upset Djokovic.
Personally I am excited to see Del Potro playing the type of tennis he is- I did not expect his best stuff until the Summer hard court swing and the US Open, yet he is well on his way and is going to be a real danger for the rest of the season even if he does not complete the surprise win tomorrow.
The Women's draw saw the Number 1 seed, Caroline Wozniaki, get thumped out of the tournament by a Daniela Hantuchova playing her best tennis. That means the top 2 seeds are out and the draw remains open for anyone to win.
Wozniaki once again proved she is anything but the best player in the World and it must have the WTA Tour questioning their ranking system.
The picks did not have a good day yesterday with the Wozniaki defeat. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez was another disappointment, but fortunately Federer's easy win over Janko Tipsarevic left me with a small loss on the day and the Djokovic 3-1 set bet still running.
On to Day 7 Picks:
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games vs Leonardo Mayer: Robin Soderling should be very happy with the conditions expected at Roland Garros tomorrow and must be pleased with his draw as he faced Leonard Mayer, a player that has played a lot of tennis over the last 10 days after missing weeks at a time.
Mayer might be ranked outside the top 200, but he is a clay court specialist with his best results coming on the surface. Last season it took Marin Cilic 5 sets to beat him here in Paris.
Mayer also had a solid win over Marcos Baghdatis in the last round but I do wonder if the lack of competitive tennis over the last 6 weeks is going to take a toll on him against Soderling.
They have met once before when Soderling won 3 tight sets in the Davis Cup last season on an indoor hard court. However, the Swede has looked good so far in the tournament and I expect he will come through in straight sets and cover the spread.
Ivan Ljubicic v Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games: Both of these men have made relatively smooth progress through to this Round 3 meeting with the winner getting the 'reward' of a likely meeting with Rafael Nadal in Round 4.
Both have big games and could be rewarded by the conditions in Paris this year. The chances for a tie break or 2 are large with the way they can serve, while Fernando Verdasco is prone to mental lapses that costs him sets.
This has a tight 4 setter written all over it, and could finish either way. However, the Over 38.5 games could come into play if the tie breaks occur as I expect they will.
Mardy Fish vs Gilles Simon: Now I could be reading this matchup completely wrong, but I was pleasantly surprised to see Mardy Fish being quoted as the big underdog in this match.
Fish has improved tenfold on clay courts, as his loss of weight has improved his movement around the court. The conditions here also favour Fish's game, with the balls flying through the air and making it much more like a hard court meeting.
Simon will look to make balls all day, but Fish has the edge when it comes to serving and with his groundstrokes. Simon definitely has the better movement and his defensive game could extract mistakes from the Fish racquet.
It is possible this match could be dragged into a 5th set as they are evenly matched, so I cant see why Fish is the big underdog.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 sets @ 3.75 (1 Unit) Still Running from Yesterday
Robin Soderling - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivan Ljubicic-Fernando Verdasco Over 38.5 games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mardy Fish @ 2.62 Unibet (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 14.02 Units (- 0.8 Units Day 6)
Tuesday, 24 May 2011
French Open Day 3 Picks
Day 2 was better for the single treble I had flagged up, which gives us the most minimal of profits going into Day 3.
The biggest news of Day 2 actually affected my staking plan for the tournament as Tomas Berdych was beaten by Stephane Robert. Berdych, who reached the Semi Final here last year, was cruising with a 2 set lead but then failed to follow through and was beaten in 5 sets.
It cant have made the Czech player feel much better knowing Robert had never won a 5 set match, never won at a Grand Slam and is currently ranked at Number 140 in the World.
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer came through difficult looking 1st Round ties with the minimal of fuss, while the likes of Richard Gasquet, Mardy Fish, Gael Monfil, Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin Del Potro all encountered few problems.
Hopefully the tournament will heat up as the week progresses as there are some cracking potential matches beginning to take shape.
Now on to the Day 3 picks:
Robin Soderling - 9.5 games vs Benjamin Becker: Over the last couple of years, Soderling has enjoyed some fine success at Roland Garros. This year he will be aided by the balls that move faster and conditions seem to suit him in Paris.
Add to the mixture that Becker has been off the tour for a few weeks and has not played a game on the red dirt this season and Soderling holds a 3-0 lead in the head to head record without losing a set, and the Swede has to be favoured.
The spread is big, but Soderling usually starts serving first and I imagine he may get off to a flyer with Becker being a little match rusty.
Santiago Giraldo vs Pablo Andujar: I am picking the underdog in this game for a couple of reasons. First off, Giraldo has beaten Andujar twice on this surface in their head to head, without losing a set, although both meetings were a few seasons ago and both took place in Giraldo's home country.
Giraldo has also picked up the better results of late on the red dirt, only being beaten by the likes of Rafa Nadal, Robin Soderling and Mardy Fish in recent tournaments, all top 10 players. Andujar had lost 4 in a row before beating Grigor Dimitrov and Julien Benneteau in Nice last week.
However, defeats to Paulo Lorenzi and Alejandro Falla are not such good results and I think Giraldo has the game to make his breakthrough in a Grand Slam after losing in 5 sets here and at Wimbledon last year.
Fernando Verdasco win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Monaco: This is one of the most intriguing match ups on the entire 1st Round in the Men's draw as Fernando Verdasco is having a poor season so far and plays against a man he has struggled against in the past.
Verdasco may not have had the kind of year we have come to expect after he reached the Australian Open Semi Final in 2009, but I have to admit he looked something close to his best in the first 2 sets against Robin Soderling in Rome a couple of weeks ago. He blew 3 match points in that game before losing in 3 sets, but has shown there is still some life in his tennis.
Monaco leads the head to head 7-2, winning 5 of their last 6 meetings, but the last 2 had extenuating circumstances and I can forgive Verdasco those defeats.
The balls are flying quicker through the courts and the conditions should give Verdasco the edge here. Mentally I can see him dropping 1 set in the contest, but I feel the Spaniard will come through in 4 sets against an opponent that he can outhit on a court with faster conditions as he did in Madrid 2 years ago.
My Picks: Robin Soderling - 9.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Santiago Giraldo win @ 2.05 Canbet (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco win 3-1 @ 4.0 Bet365 (1 Unit)
French Open Record: + 0.04 Units
The biggest news of Day 2 actually affected my staking plan for the tournament as Tomas Berdych was beaten by Stephane Robert. Berdych, who reached the Semi Final here last year, was cruising with a 2 set lead but then failed to follow through and was beaten in 5 sets.
It cant have made the Czech player feel much better knowing Robert had never won a 5 set match, never won at a Grand Slam and is currently ranked at Number 140 in the World.
Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer came through difficult looking 1st Round ties with the minimal of fuss, while the likes of Richard Gasquet, Mardy Fish, Gael Monfil, Nikolay Davydenko and Juan Martin Del Potro all encountered few problems.
Hopefully the tournament will heat up as the week progresses as there are some cracking potential matches beginning to take shape.
Now on to the Day 3 picks:
Robin Soderling - 9.5 games vs Benjamin Becker: Over the last couple of years, Soderling has enjoyed some fine success at Roland Garros. This year he will be aided by the balls that move faster and conditions seem to suit him in Paris.
Add to the mixture that Becker has been off the tour for a few weeks and has not played a game on the red dirt this season and Soderling holds a 3-0 lead in the head to head record without losing a set, and the Swede has to be favoured.
The spread is big, but Soderling usually starts serving first and I imagine he may get off to a flyer with Becker being a little match rusty.
Santiago Giraldo vs Pablo Andujar: I am picking the underdog in this game for a couple of reasons. First off, Giraldo has beaten Andujar twice on this surface in their head to head, without losing a set, although both meetings were a few seasons ago and both took place in Giraldo's home country.
Giraldo has also picked up the better results of late on the red dirt, only being beaten by the likes of Rafa Nadal, Robin Soderling and Mardy Fish in recent tournaments, all top 10 players. Andujar had lost 4 in a row before beating Grigor Dimitrov and Julien Benneteau in Nice last week.
However, defeats to Paulo Lorenzi and Alejandro Falla are not such good results and I think Giraldo has the game to make his breakthrough in a Grand Slam after losing in 5 sets here and at Wimbledon last year.
Fernando Verdasco win 3-1 in sets vs Juan Monaco: This is one of the most intriguing match ups on the entire 1st Round in the Men's draw as Fernando Verdasco is having a poor season so far and plays against a man he has struggled against in the past.
Verdasco may not have had the kind of year we have come to expect after he reached the Australian Open Semi Final in 2009, but I have to admit he looked something close to his best in the first 2 sets against Robin Soderling in Rome a couple of weeks ago. He blew 3 match points in that game before losing in 3 sets, but has shown there is still some life in his tennis.
Monaco leads the head to head 7-2, winning 5 of their last 6 meetings, but the last 2 had extenuating circumstances and I can forgive Verdasco those defeats.
The balls are flying quicker through the courts and the conditions should give Verdasco the edge here. Mentally I can see him dropping 1 set in the contest, but I feel the Spaniard will come through in 4 sets against an opponent that he can outhit on a court with faster conditions as he did in Madrid 2 years ago.
My Picks: Robin Soderling - 9.5 games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Santiago Giraldo win @ 2.05 Canbet (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco win 3-1 @ 4.0 Bet365 (1 Unit)
French Open Record: + 0.04 Units
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