Well I ended February with a run of 4 winners to finish the month with a slight profit, although I am hoping to improve my hit rate to above 63% in March.
Still, I guess a slight profit is better than a big loss, so those 4 winners came very handy as the month drew to a close.
As always, I will post my plays on this same thread throughout the month while updating the win-loss column before I make new plays. As I say, I am aiming to improve to above 63% although I don't make plays every day, especially if I feel a little out of form.
March 1st
Miami Heat @ Portland Trail Blazers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13317-Miami-Heat-at-Portland-T-Blazers.htm)
March 3rd
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13344-Utah-Jazz-at-Dallas-Mavericks.htm)
March 5th
It took me a day to recover from the Dallas Mavericks failure to cover the spread against the Utah Jazz as they allowed 41 points in the final quarter as well as being outscored by 13 points to win by 6 and just fail to get over the line. The backdoor cover always seems to hurt that much more than when the game is close throughout and I decided to leave Sunday's games alone.
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors Pick: I have decided to play the Over total points in this one for the following reasons:
First, 9 of the last 10 meetings between the teams in the series would have gone over the total set in this game. I think it has been set a little low as Toronto played last night and they are perhaps taking tiredness as a key factor for the home team.
Second, the Raptors have actually gone over 3-1-1 in their last 5 games playing the second of back to back nights play.
Third, the Magic have reached a 100 point total in 4 of their last 5 matches and could really set the scene for the cover if they can go at a reasonable rate from the three point arc.
March 7th
Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13379-Portland-T-Blazers-at-Minnesota-T-Wolves.htm)
Phoenix Suns @ Oklahoma City Thunder Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13380-Phoenix-Suns-at-Oklahoma-City.htm)
March 8th
I am not going to lie- I really felt last night I got the luck that deserted me in the Dallas-Utah game on Saturday as Oklahoma City went into overdrive to cover the spread by 1.5 points with a fourth quarter blowout of the Phoenix Suns.
The Thunder had really struggled for the first three quarters to get things going consistently and I figured they were unlikely to cover, but a big fourth quarter meant the picks both won thankfully.
Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns Pick: I am going to back the road team to win and cover for the following reasons:
First, Phoenix played in an emotional loss last night as they blew a decent lead to lose at the Oklahoma City Thunder and they could suffer a letdown tonight.
Second, Dallas have gone 8-0 against the spread in the last 8 games in the series between the teams, including winning all 3 games this season as well as the last 3 in Phoenix.
Third, Phoenix are 3-6 against the spread in their last 9 home games when playing on consecutive nights.
March 9th
So the Dallas Mavericks can say they are almost single-handedly responsible for my 50% strike rate so far this month as they screwed my pick for the second time in the last few days.
First they blew that game with Utah Jazz by failing to cover when leading by 19 going into the final quarter and winning by just 6 when I had them - 7.5 points.
Yesterday, they were leading by 10 with 15 minutes left to play, but proceeded to go on a 6-27 run and then missed two shots to take the game into overtime and keep the chances of the cover alive. I am done with the Mavs until they find some consistency.
New Jersey Nets @ Charlotte Bobcats Pick: I am picking the road team to cover for the following reasons:
First, they have beaten the Bobcats twice already this season, including here last week behind Deron Williams' 57 points effort.
Second, I don't think Charlotte deserve to be a close underdog against anyone this season.
Third, New Jersey have been in decent, if not spectacular, form of late and I think they are the better team and this spread should be as high as the 4.5 points it was when they met a few days ago.
LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: I am going to continue riding the Overs in the Minnesota games here for the following reasons:
First, the last 3 meetings between the teams have gone 'Overs' including both played this season.
Second, Minnesota continue getting involved in high scoring games as their defence is not great but they have some fine three point shooters.
Third, the Overs has been popular in Lakers matches recently, going 7-3 in their last 10 games.
New York Knicks @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I am going to back the Milwaukee Bucks to win this game outright for the following reasons:
First, Milwaukee have been playing some really good basketball recently and have been a little unfortunate not to get the results their play has deserved. However, they continue fighting hard which shows a team that is not getting down on themselves.
Second, the Bucks are 7-1 straight up in their last 8 games against New York including a win at the Garden earlier this season.
Third, this game potentially means more to Milwaukee than it does for New York. The Bucks need to get back into the Play Off picture and face one of their potential rivals on that front, while the Knicks are facing the Philadelphia 76ers next as they look to close on the Atlantic Division leaders.
March 10th
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13412-Indiana-Pacers-at-Miami-Heat.htm)
March 12th
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13425-New-York-Knicks-at-Chicago-Bulls.htm)
March 13th
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13434-Houston-Rockets-at-Oklahoma-City.htm)
March 21st
I took a few days off after going 1-2 with my last 3 picks and decided to take a breath and figure out what I was doing right/wrong. Hopefully I can end the month on form and build a healthy profit as the regular season draws to a close.
New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13503-New-York-Knicks-at-Philadelphia-76ers.htm)
LA Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: I am going to back another underdog in the form of the LA Lakers for the following reasons:
First, Dallas have struggled under expectations all season and are just 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games as the favourite. They are 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 as the home favourite.
Second, the Lakers have won their last 4 games against the spread as the road underdog given between 0.5 and 4.5 points.
Third, the Lakers are 4-3 against the spread when being beaten as the favourite in their previous game and I think they may already have been focused on this game when they blew their game at Houston last night.
March 22nd
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13513-Boston-Celtics-at-Milwaukee-Bucks.htm)
LA Clippers @ New Orleans Hornets Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13514-LA-Clippers-at-New-Orleans-Hornets.htm)
March 23rd
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13524-New-York-Knicks-at-Toronto-Raptors.htm)
New Jersey Nets @ Atlanta Hawks Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13525-New-Jersey-Nets-at-Atlanta-Hawks.htm)
Portland Trail Blazers @ LA Lakers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13526-Portland-T-Blazers-at-LA-Lakers.htm)
March 24th
Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13536-Atlanta-Hawks-at-Washington-Wizards.htm)
March 25th
Miami Heat @ Oklahoma City Thunder Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13547-Miami-Heat-at-Oklahoma-City.htm)
Memphis Grizzlies @ LA Lakers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13545-Memphis-Grizzlies-at-LA-Lakers.htm)
March 27th
Talk about a bad run of form... I have been really struggling over the last week and that has seen the profits fall through the floor for this month. I decided to take yesterday off from the games and, you guessed it, had 3 winners from my 4 team shortlist. Hopefully that proves to be a turning point to end the month.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13569-Cleveland-Cavaliers-at-Philadelphia-76ers.htm)
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13568-Minnesota-T-Wolves-at-Memphis-Grizzlies.htm)
March 28th
Orlando Magic @ New York Knicks Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13577-Orlando-Magic-at-New-York-Knicks.htm)
Indiana Pacers @ New Jersey Nets Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13574-Indiana-Pacers-at-New-Jersey-Nets.htm)
Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-13575-Utah-Jazz-at-Boston-Celtics.htm)
MY PICKS: 01/03 Miami Heat - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
03/03 Dallas Mavericks - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
05/03 Toronto Raptors-Orlando Magic Over 186 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
07/03 Minnesota Timberwolves-Portland Trail Blazers Over 195.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
07/03 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
08/03 Dallas Mavericks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/03 New Jersey Nets - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
09/03 Minnesota Timberwolves-LA Lakers Over 192.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
09/03 Milwaukee Bucks @ 2.05 Sky Bet (2 Units)
10/03 Miami Heat - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
12/03 New York Knicks + 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
13/03 Oklahoma City Thunder - 11 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
21/03 New York Knicks + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
21/03 LA Lakers + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 188Bet (2 Units)
22/03 Milwaukee Bucks - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
22/03 LA Clippers - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/03 New York Knicks - 5.5 Points @ 2.00 188Bet (2 Units)
23/03 Atlanta Hawks - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
23/03 LA Lakers - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
24/03 Atlanta Hawks - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
25/03 Miami Heat + 2 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
25/03 LA Lakers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
27/03 Philadelphia 76ers - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
27/03 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5.5 Points @ 1.92 (2 Units)
28/03 Orlando Magic - 2 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
28/03 Indiana Pacers - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
28/03 Boston Celtics-Utah Jazz Over 189.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
March Update: 11-12-1, - 2.98 Units
February Final: 8-7, + 1.02 Units
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Showing posts with label Picks Update. Show all posts
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Thursday, 1 March 2012
Monday, 30 May 2011
French Open Day 9 Picks
The French Open tournament looks like it will put together some strong matches as the clay season draws to a close. There are some real surprising names left in the draw, but that should make it a little easier for the big names to meet each other.
Fabio Fognini is the biggest surprise, in my opinion, as he has never shown the commitment in previous tournaments as he has here. The Italian has reached the Quarter Finals but is surely not going to be the man to end Novak Djokovic's winning streak.
Both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have made serene progress in the last couple of days, although Andy Murray's ankle turn is going to be tested against Victor Troicki. I would not be surprised if Murray pulls out of all tournaments in the lead up to Wimbledon if the ankle is really sore.
The Women's draw has lost the top 3 seeds, but there are still some real dangerous players left that could take the title home. It should be a fun week ahead of us.
The picks went 4-2-1 over the last 2 days which has led to another bunch of profit to add to our bank. Hopefully we can make this a very good tournament and not give any profit back to the bookmakers.
Now on to Day 9 Picks:
Robin Soderling - 5.5 games vs Gilles Simon: I underestimated Gilles Simon in the last Round against Mardy Fish, but I dont think I am making that mistake again. This time I am going against the Frenchman because I believe is going up against the better player in most departments.
Soderling also has a 5-2 head to head record against Simon (1-0 on clay) and for the most part has been an easy winner.
It is possible that Simon steals a set, but I think Soderling will come through and is likely to be able to win 1 of the 3 sets with a bit to spare which will lead to him covering this spread.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games vs Na Li: Petra Kvitova is a real dark horse to win the Women''s title- she has a big game off the ground and is capable of blowing her opponents off court.
Kvitova does face the experience Na Li, but beat her opponent in Madrid a couple of weeks ago with minimum fuss. Kvitova has also demolished her opponents in the previous Rounds and I think she is ready to make another big impact in a Grand Slam.
Li should not be underestimated and the Australian Open Runner Up will not give in easily, I just think she will struggle to keep Kvitova under control and will be beaten.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs Victor Troicki: This is possibly a dodgy pick considering the question marks surrounding Murray's injury, but I am of the belief the British Number 1 will not risk his chances at Wimbledon by playing on an injured ankle. He must feel his better chance of winning a slam is in London in 3 weeks time rather than here at the French, even with the kind path to the Semi Finals, and so I am backing him to cover the spread if he does play.
The ankle injury also looked more like one of surprise, rather than any long term damage, and I do expect Murray to play.
Murray leads the head to head 3-0, including a win at Wimbledon, and has yet to drop a set against Troicki. I find Murray's game is likely to be too consistent for Troicki, and I believe the Serb does not have the patience to beat Murray on clay.
Normally I would think this spread would be at least a couple of games higher, so the value is on Murray here.
MY PICKS: Robin Soderling - 5.5 games @ 2.20 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 18.87 Units (+ 4.85 Units Day 7 and Day 8)
Fabio Fognini is the biggest surprise, in my opinion, as he has never shown the commitment in previous tournaments as he has here. The Italian has reached the Quarter Finals but is surely not going to be the man to end Novak Djokovic's winning streak.
Both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal have made serene progress in the last couple of days, although Andy Murray's ankle turn is going to be tested against Victor Troicki. I would not be surprised if Murray pulls out of all tournaments in the lead up to Wimbledon if the ankle is really sore.
The Women's draw has lost the top 3 seeds, but there are still some real dangerous players left that could take the title home. It should be a fun week ahead of us.
The picks went 4-2-1 over the last 2 days which has led to another bunch of profit to add to our bank. Hopefully we can make this a very good tournament and not give any profit back to the bookmakers.
Now on to Day 9 Picks:
Robin Soderling - 5.5 games vs Gilles Simon: I underestimated Gilles Simon in the last Round against Mardy Fish, but I dont think I am making that mistake again. This time I am going against the Frenchman because I believe is going up against the better player in most departments.
Soderling also has a 5-2 head to head record against Simon (1-0 on clay) and for the most part has been an easy winner.
It is possible that Simon steals a set, but I think Soderling will come through and is likely to be able to win 1 of the 3 sets with a bit to spare which will lead to him covering this spread.
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games vs Na Li: Petra Kvitova is a real dark horse to win the Women''s title- she has a big game off the ground and is capable of blowing her opponents off court.
Kvitova does face the experience Na Li, but beat her opponent in Madrid a couple of weeks ago with minimum fuss. Kvitova has also demolished her opponents in the previous Rounds and I think she is ready to make another big impact in a Grand Slam.
Li should not be underestimated and the Australian Open Runner Up will not give in easily, I just think she will struggle to keep Kvitova under control and will be beaten.
Andy Murray - 5.5 games vs Victor Troicki: This is possibly a dodgy pick considering the question marks surrounding Murray's injury, but I am of the belief the British Number 1 will not risk his chances at Wimbledon by playing on an injured ankle. He must feel his better chance of winning a slam is in London in 3 weeks time rather than here at the French, even with the kind path to the Semi Finals, and so I am backing him to cover the spread if he does play.
The ankle injury also looked more like one of surprise, rather than any long term damage, and I do expect Murray to play.
Murray leads the head to head 3-0, including a win at Wimbledon, and has yet to drop a set against Troicki. I find Murray's game is likely to be too consistent for Troicki, and I believe the Serb does not have the patience to beat Murray on clay.
Normally I would think this spread would be at least a couple of games higher, so the value is on Murray here.
MY PICKS: Robin Soderling - 5.5 games @ 2.20 BoyleSports (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 games @ 2.00 BetFred (2 Units)
FRENCH OPEN: + 18.87 Units (+ 4.85 Units Day 7 and Day 8)
Wednesday, 23 March 2011
Recap of the Week and Picks Update
It has been a very good March so far, although we are reaching the stage where we have to be careful in giving back too much back to the greedy bookmakers.
The English Premier League, and the other top European Leagues, have shut down for a 2 week International break. I hate the fact that this seems to sap the momentum being built up as the season draws to a close, but I am extremely happy as a Manchester United fan that we have this time to get some defenders back up to speed with a tough looking trip to Upton Park next on the schedule.
Talking about United, a quiet piece of news was that Red Holdings, the company in control of United, made a loss of over 100 million pounds during the last year. The lack of a superstar being sold, as Cristiano Ronaldo was 18 months ago, makes me suspicious of what the Glazers are getting up to at Old Trafford. They maintain there is 100 million sitting in a bank waiting to be spent when there is 'value in the market'- I am just beginning to wonder when this 'value' will appear as the squad is ageing and definitely needs reinvestment.
Watching Cheltenham last week reminded me of how the Premier League title race is shaping up this season. While the public concentrates on the two horses leading the way, the eye is taken off the old timer powering behind them on the rails. Chelsea are looking more and more dangerous with each passing game, and I am beginning to believe that they are the biggest threat to United winning the record 19th top flight title. The game at Old Trafford on May 7th may just be the title decider, not the May 1st meeting between Arsenal and United at the Emirates.
I just cannot wait for the Internationals to get out of the way and we can then enjoy an April packed with big games and moments.
The NBA will always have its doubters as to how legitimate teams are playing. The minute you see a team blow a big lead and fail to cover a spread, there are a number of people on message boards, blogs and websites disputing the validity of the performances. I do not agree with them- teams are playing for one thing and one thing only, the W. They dont care if they fail to cover as long as the game is in the bag and they take one more step towards the Play Offs.
The teams that are looking particularly dangerous as we get to less than a month to go in the regular season are the Oklahoma City Thunder in the West and the Chicago Bulls in the East. Both are already playing with Play Off intensity and will be tough to knock off- while it is still too early to be talking about who will make the Finals in June, I am sure no one is looking forward to playing those two teams.
On the other hand, whoever finishes 8th in the East are going to struggle, while the New York Knicks look like they will not be making the impact in the Play Offs that fans will have expected. If the Knicks draw Boston, I would say get ready for next season New Yorkers.
The NHL is another League drawing to a close for the regular season. The hits being dished out and taken have really come under the microscope in recent weeks as the issues surrounding concussions become clearer day by day. At the end of the day, I dont want to watch a hockey game where the star players are on the sidelines with injuries, or take limited part as they are targeted with vicious hits.
The San Jose Sharks have been in hot form in recent weeks, and could end up being a dangerous lower seed in the loaded Western Conference. There are a bunch of teams that can beat one another in both Conferences, and it is really hard to find a standout team. I wont even guess at a pick to win the whole thing until the Play Off seedings are completed.
Finally, there has been a lot of discussions in recent weeks about what constitutes a good record for the various people picking games all over the Net. The bottom line is this- no one can possibly pick at greater than 70% for spread betting in any League over the course of a season. However, if you can play your bank in the correct manner, it is possible, along with a 55-60% strike rate, to make plenty of profit.
My only advice would be to use units to distinguish your picks, keep a record of your tips, and do not get too disheartened if you suffer a couple of losses- remember to research your picks and you should come good. If not, check your research, whether you are looking at the correct angles for games and use it in trial and error. NEVER bet your life savings, or more than you can afford to lose.
Picks Update for March
Football (Soccer) + 10.72 Units
NBA + 17.98 Units
NHL + 1.1 Units
Latest Picks
Remember to check http://www.goonersguide.com/ for picks every day (mine are under Auls)
Today I have:
Miami Heat - 8.5 points @ Detroit Pistons
Houston Rockets - 8.5 points v Golden State Warriors
The English Premier League, and the other top European Leagues, have shut down for a 2 week International break. I hate the fact that this seems to sap the momentum being built up as the season draws to a close, but I am extremely happy as a Manchester United fan that we have this time to get some defenders back up to speed with a tough looking trip to Upton Park next on the schedule.
Talking about United, a quiet piece of news was that Red Holdings, the company in control of United, made a loss of over 100 million pounds during the last year. The lack of a superstar being sold, as Cristiano Ronaldo was 18 months ago, makes me suspicious of what the Glazers are getting up to at Old Trafford. They maintain there is 100 million sitting in a bank waiting to be spent when there is 'value in the market'- I am just beginning to wonder when this 'value' will appear as the squad is ageing and definitely needs reinvestment.
Watching Cheltenham last week reminded me of how the Premier League title race is shaping up this season. While the public concentrates on the two horses leading the way, the eye is taken off the old timer powering behind them on the rails. Chelsea are looking more and more dangerous with each passing game, and I am beginning to believe that they are the biggest threat to United winning the record 19th top flight title. The game at Old Trafford on May 7th may just be the title decider, not the May 1st meeting between Arsenal and United at the Emirates.
I just cannot wait for the Internationals to get out of the way and we can then enjoy an April packed with big games and moments.
The NBA will always have its doubters as to how legitimate teams are playing. The minute you see a team blow a big lead and fail to cover a spread, there are a number of people on message boards, blogs and websites disputing the validity of the performances. I do not agree with them- teams are playing for one thing and one thing only, the W. They dont care if they fail to cover as long as the game is in the bag and they take one more step towards the Play Offs.
The teams that are looking particularly dangerous as we get to less than a month to go in the regular season are the Oklahoma City Thunder in the West and the Chicago Bulls in the East. Both are already playing with Play Off intensity and will be tough to knock off- while it is still too early to be talking about who will make the Finals in June, I am sure no one is looking forward to playing those two teams.
On the other hand, whoever finishes 8th in the East are going to struggle, while the New York Knicks look like they will not be making the impact in the Play Offs that fans will have expected. If the Knicks draw Boston, I would say get ready for next season New Yorkers.
The NHL is another League drawing to a close for the regular season. The hits being dished out and taken have really come under the microscope in recent weeks as the issues surrounding concussions become clearer day by day. At the end of the day, I dont want to watch a hockey game where the star players are on the sidelines with injuries, or take limited part as they are targeted with vicious hits.
The San Jose Sharks have been in hot form in recent weeks, and could end up being a dangerous lower seed in the loaded Western Conference. There are a bunch of teams that can beat one another in both Conferences, and it is really hard to find a standout team. I wont even guess at a pick to win the whole thing until the Play Off seedings are completed.
Finally, there has been a lot of discussions in recent weeks about what constitutes a good record for the various people picking games all over the Net. The bottom line is this- no one can possibly pick at greater than 70% for spread betting in any League over the course of a season. However, if you can play your bank in the correct manner, it is possible, along with a 55-60% strike rate, to make plenty of profit.
My only advice would be to use units to distinguish your picks, keep a record of your tips, and do not get too disheartened if you suffer a couple of losses- remember to research your picks and you should come good. If not, check your research, whether you are looking at the correct angles for games and use it in trial and error. NEVER bet your life savings, or more than you can afford to lose.
Picks Update for March
Football (Soccer) + 10.72 Units
NBA + 17.98 Units
NHL + 1.1 Units
Latest Picks
Remember to check http://www.goonersguide.com/ for picks every day (mine are under Auls)
Today I have:
Miami Heat - 8.5 points @ Detroit Pistons
Houston Rockets - 8.5 points v Golden State Warriors
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