The third Grand Slam of the year is upon us in wet and windy London as Wimbledon arrives. I will break down the draw in the same fashion as I did the French Open and see if I can find any picks to start the tournament.
I will also be looking at the Women's draw in this tournament, unlike at the French Open, before bringing picks on a daily basis.
Hopefully this tournament will be as profitable as the French Open was a couple of weeks ago.
First Quarter
The first quarter of the draw is given to the Number 1 seed
Rafael Nadal, an obvious contender to win the whole tournament after his successes here over the last few years.
Some may be worried about Nadal's form after he did not really play that well at the French and being knocked out at the Quarter Final stage at Queens, but he was also beaten at that stage last year and still went on to win Wimbledon.
However, there are some dangerous players in this section of the draw, including
Juan Martin Del Potro,
Mardy Fish, and
Tomas Berdych.
Nadal should negotiate his way to the Quarter Final without too many issues. His biggest test could come in a 3rd Round meeting with Gilles Muller/Tommy Haas/Milos Raonic.
Gilles Muller actually beat Nadal here at Wimbledon in 2005 in 4 sets, while Milos Raonic is the rising star on the ATP Tour. However, the latter has had little experience on grass while the former has not improved in the same manner as Nadal since their last meeting.
Tommy Haas has the grass court game to pose problems, but he has been limited to little tennis thanks to injuries and I cant see Nadal being too troubled.
A 4th Round meeting against Juan Martin Del Potro would favour Nadal heavily on this surface, especially as the Argentine has not really performed on grass courts even close to how he has on the other surfaces.
Tomas Berdych has been given a really nice draw to open the tournament and should be good enough to progress through the first 3 Rounds with little problems. However, he has really been struggling for form for much of the season and there is a real chance he could run into some trouble in the 4th Round.
Berdych is likely to meet Mardy Fish in the 4th Round, although the American will have to negotiate some tough tests to get there. It is also telling that Fish has not really experienced as much success at Wimbledon as his game indicates he could have, and he has not played on the grass this season.
Either way, I find it incredibly hard to look past Nadal here to progress to the Semi Finals.
Second Quarter
The big British hope,
Andy Murray, was given a plum draw at Roland Garros recently, but his progress at Wimbledon looks likely to be much more difficult. Murray looks good for the first 3 Rounds as would be expected for a higher seed. I am not going to be too worried of his chances to beat Marin Cilic in a possible 3rd Round clash, especially with the Croatian being out of form and there is a chance that Cilic is already out of the tournament before that match is made up.
The 4th Round will provide Murray's first big test of the tournament as he is likely to face the winner of the Richard Gasquet-Stanislas Wawrinka 3rd Round match.
Richard Gasquet is a former Semi Finalist at this tournament and the last 2 meetings with Andy Murray have both been in Grand Slams (1 at Wimbledon) with both meetings going the full 5 sets. Murray may have won both, was forced to fight back from 2 set deficits in both wins.
Stanislas Wawrinka has not been in the best of form but did force Murray into a 5 set match here a couple of years ago AND beat Murray at the US Open last year.
Whoever Murray plays at this stage could provide a lot of problems, even though I would expect Murray to come through.
The bottom half of the section is not that strong and looks like it is paving the way for
Andy Roddick to reach yet another Quarter Final here. Roddick should negotiate the first 2 Rounds with relative ease but then there is the possibility of a 3rd Round meeting with
Feliciano Lopez.
Lopez has all the tools to play well on grass and has previously reached the Quarter Finals at Wimbledon on a couple of occasions. Roddick has won all 7 meetings between the two men, but their recent match at Queens shows how close the match will likely be.
The winner of that 3rd Round meeting is likely going to provide the opposition for Andy Murray in the Quarter Finals, but I would heavily fancy the Scot to get through if that was the case.
Third Quarter
Being a former 6 time winner of this tournament will automatically elevate
Roger Federer to being one of the favourites this year, but the performance of the former World Number 1 at the French Open coupled with a wonderful draw has only strengthened his support.
I honestly dont think Federer could have picked a better draw to ease himself into the tournament. The first 4 Rounds look like they will provide the minimul resistence, with the biggest challenge being
David Nalbandian in the 3rd Round.
However, Nalbandian (one of my favourite players) is not the force of old even if he does have a 8-10 record against Federer. Injuries have slowed Nalbandian down and I think Federer will be too consistent for him.
The players most likely to meet Federer in the Quarter Finals are
David Ferrer and
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Ferrer should reach the 4th Round with few bumps along the way, but Tsonga is going to have to negotiate the talented Alexandr Dolgopolov in the 3rd Round.
Tsonga and Dolgopolov had a tough 5 setter here at Wimbledon last year which was won by Tsonga 10-8 in the final set. However, Dolgopolov got his revenge in Australia with a 5 set win of his own.
All in all, this section of the draw suggests Federer will be reaching another Semi Final at Wimbledon.
Fourth Quarter
Out of all the top 4 seeds, I was most intrigued with how
Novak Djokovic would handle losing his unbeaten start to the season. However, it seems the Serb, like the other top seeds, has avoided a really testing section.
The section up to the Quarter Final looks fairly open for Djokovic to negotiate- the likes of Kevin Anderson and Marcos Baghdatis just dont seem like they have the consistency that will be required to knock Novak off here.
He is then seeded to meet either
Victor Troicki or
Michael Llodra in the 4th Round, but neither one of those players is someone you can rely on to actually pass their way through the draw and it is entirely conceivable that they both exit before that point.
However, there is no one there that can seriously expect to hurt Djokovic over a best of 5 sets contest and I fully expect Djokovic to make the QF.
At that point, I would think Djokovic is likely to bump into
Robin Soderling, a player that has had some success on the grass in his career.
Soderling does have a tough 1st Round match with Philipp Petzschner, but he could go all the way to the Quarter Finals if he can win that match. With a 2-0 head to head record, including a win on grass, I think the Swede will be able to do so.
There could have been an interesting 2nd Round match with Lleyton Hewitt brewing, but the Australian has been suffering with injuries this season and also pulled out of Eastbourne with a foot injury. A lack of matches and form means I would expect Soderling to again move through the draw.
Jurgen Melzer is the most likely 4th Round opponent, but he is another that has flattered to deceive this season and so Soderling must be the favourite to meet Djokovic.
Djokovic has a 6-1 head to head record against Soderling, but they have yet to meet on grass, and this will be a tougher match for the World Number 2 than some may expect. However, Soderling has been a little short of confidence when up against the very best in the World and I think that is what lets him down again.
It could be the one Quarter Final that spoils the hopes of seeing the top 4 in the Semi Finals again as they were in the French, but ultimately I think we will see the same matches.
Semi Finals and Winner
So it seems the Semi Finals are likely to be the same as we saw at the French Open. The Andy Murray-Rafael Nadal match does pose some interesting questions, especially as Murray was so close when they met on the clay of Roland Garros.
I think the match will be closer than their last 2 matches at Wimbledon which has seen Nadal win both without losing a set. However, I still think Nadal has a little more mental strength to get through the tougher moments and I think the Spaniard may just come through in 4, possibly 5, sets.
I feel Murray may have already spent a fair bit longer on court than Nadal, and that fatigue may cost him in the end, more mentally rather than physically.
The other Semi Final will be the first meeting on grass between Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. Their recent Semi at the French Open saw Federer win as he turned back the clock and put in his best performance of the season.
Federer leads the head to head 14-9 and feels more comfortable on the grass than Djokovic. I think Federer will have the better movement on the surface and I think he may just hold the mental edge after winning their most recent meeting.
There is also the added spice that Federer definitely seems to dislike Djokovic.
I think Federer will come through this match, and here is hoping they can serve up another treat for the fans.
I think we could get the Final that many will want to see between Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. The close nature of their recent match at the French Open has made many believers that Federer can win his 7th Wimbledon crown, but I still think it is asking a lot if Nadal is indeed his opponent.
Nadal has won 10 of the last 12 matches against Federer, wins coming on all the different surfaces and he has not lost at Wimbledon since 2007. In that time he has won the tournament twice and missed one through injury.
There are still some mental issues for Federer to address when he plays Nadal and this concerns me in backing the Swiss Master.
I really think this could be another great match between the two, but I do think Nadal has the edge in the match and will win.
MY PICKS:
Rafael Nadal to win outright @ 3.25 Various (2 Units)
The top 4 seeds to reach the Semi Finals @ 5.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
