This is the final week before the fourth Grand Slam of the Tennis season begins in New York and the WTA event in New Haven is clearly the tournament with more contenders playing in it.
The ATP event in Winston Salem has some decent players involved, but the main contenders in New York are all resting up to get ready for an assault on the title. There may not be as many Tennis Picks this week simply because my focus is beginning to turn to the Grand Slam which begins soon, but there may be some good options to play after two pretty poor weeks for the Picks in Canada and Cincinnati.
On Tuesday I begin this week with three Picks from the two tournaments being played.
Daniil Medvedev v Alex De Minaur: Both of these young players have produced some very good tennis on the hard courts over the last month which will give them some confidence to take into the final Grand Slam of the season. However for both Daniil Medvedev and Alex De Minaur will see the week in Winston Salem as the chance to add some much needed World Ranking points which can stand them in good stead over the next twelve months.
Some could argue that both of these players should be looking at this week as arguably being even more important than the upcoming US Open. There is no guessing what kind of draw unseeded players like Medvedev and De Minaur will receive in New York so winning this match and moving deep into the event here is very important to them.
I don't think it could be a big surprise that both Medvedev and De Minaur have been so inconsistent in 2018. The latter has reached two Finals at this level on the hard courts which is very impressive, but De Minaur has not really had a big impact in any other event outside of Sydney and Washington, especially when it comes to the hard courts.
This does feel like it is going to be a very close match with their numbers on the hard courts being very similar over the course of 2018. One of the differences between them on the day could be the fact that Daniil Medvedev has already won one match in the tournament while the Seeded Alex De Minaur received a bye through to the Second Round.
Having some familiarity with the conditions will be a boost to the Russian underdog and he does have the slightly better numbers than De Minaur over the course of the season. The Medvedev form has been good and I think he can overturn the expectations from the odds and that is by winning this match as the underdog in the Second Round.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: The last twelve months have not been as positive for Johanna Konta as she would have liked and she has been more testy in press conferences as each month has passed by. The British Number 1 will be the first to admit that she has perhaps underachieved but her results have been poorer than the performances and I don't believe Konta is far away from moving back up the World Rankings.
The hard courts should be the favoured surface for Konta and her 15-10 record in 2018 is perhaps a little harsh on her with some tough losses taken. You can't deny the numbers are down on the serve compared with the last couple of years when Konta has thrived in her stunning run up the World Rankings, but she should still have enough from that side of her game to give Carla Suarez Navarro plenty of problems.
Suarez Navarro has slipped down the World Rankings and her hard court numbers have declined in each of the last three seasons. The Spaniard remains a feisty competitor who can take advantage of any opponent not reaching a decent level of tennis, but she has a serve which can be vulnerable on the faster surfaces and Konta could definitely take advantage of that side of her game.
The key for Konta will always be how well she serves and that has been an aspect of her game which has been inconsistent at best. When at her best Konta can be very tough to break down, but if she is slightly off her game it could result in giving up too many breaks of serve which makes a cover of this number almost impossible.
Konta did crush Suarez Navarro when they met earlier in the year. Matching that won't be easy with the up and down nature of the Konta performances in 2018, but I do think she can return well enough to put Suarez Navarro under constant pressure. As long as Konta does look after her serve by holding Suarez to three or fewer breaks of serve in the match I think it will be enough for the British player to move into the next Round with a cover of the big number.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Aliaksandra Sasnovich: In all honesty it has been a disappointing season on the hard courts for Caroline Garcia and this player still feels some way away from winning a Grand Slam title on any surface. That might be strange to say for a top 10 Ranked player, but I would be stunned if Garcia is able to make a significant impact at the upcoming US Open.
The Frenchwoman has really struggled when she has been asked to step up and take on the best players on the Tour, while her overall game still needs some real improvement. The Garcia serve is a decent weapon for her, but her return is not quite up to the level required to make an impact at the highest level.
However there has been a significant improvement when Garcia has faced players outside of the top 20 in the World Rankings. Those are highlighted by some strong numbers on the hard courts and there are improvements across the board in those matches compared with her overall numbers on this surface.
Garcia will respect Aliaksandra Sasnovich after needing three sets to beat this opponent at the Australian Open, while Sasnovich has already won four matches in New Haven after coming through the Qualifiers to reach the main draw.
Earlier this season Sasnovich reached the Final in Brisbane having seen off some top 20 opponents on the way, and she has a serve that needs to be respected. However the return game has been an issue for her and I think Sasnovich may just be put under enough pressure by the Garcia serve to feel scoreboard pressure and ultimately crack under that.
Both players will need the second serve to be effective to win this match and I am just about giving the edge to Garcia there. I also think she is the slightly superior returner and I will back the Frenchwoman to get through this match.
MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
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Showing posts with label August 21st. Show all posts
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Tuesday, 21 August 2018
Friday, 18 August 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (August 19-21)
The second week of the new Premier League season begins on Saturday lunchtime and will be played through to Monday night.
This week is a big one with the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage draws being made on Thursday and Friday respectively and then we get into the final round of domestic League matches before the two international break as the World Cup Qualifiers reach the business end throughout the world.
I hate that international break so soon into the new season, and teams could be trying to gel new faces that have been signed before the transfer window closed. After the long wait for football it feels like we should be allowed to really get our teeth into the new season before having another break, but it does mean the matches will be coming thick and fast in September.
This weekend also sees the beginning of domestic football in the other major European Leagues with Germany, Italy and Spain all getting underway.
It should mean a fun weekend with some top matches to come as we get to see all the top teams in action.
Before we get onto the picks, I will mention the short piece written about Manchester United before the season started. You can read that here and the weekend picks follow below.
Swansea City v Manchester United Pick: You don't want to read too much into the opening weekend of a new Premier League season when results can be a little funny as some teams will naturally be further along with their preparation than others. However Swansea City are going to need to be a lot better than they were last weekend if they are going to contain this Manchester United side.
The goalless draw at Southampton may be seen in a positive for the simple fact that Paul Clement's men earned a point from the game. However Southampton had enough chances to win two games of football and only a lack of composure in front of goal prevented them doing that.
Not many will accuse Manchester United of a lack of composure after ripping apart West Ham United at Old Trafford last Sunday. No one will be patting themselves on the back though and Jose Mourinho will know there is room for improvement which I expect Manchester United to make the more the team gels together in the months ahead.
The goals scored by Romelu Lukaku will give him plenty of confidence though and the likes of Anthony Martial and Paul Pogba adding goals will be encouraging to Manchester United too. The attacking players at the Liberty Stadium should be encouraged if Swansea City defend as poorly as they did at times at Southampton and I do worry for the home team unless they can make some significant transfer moves before the summer transfer window closes.
Swansea City lost Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton this week and Fernando Llorente is expected to miss out which takes away big attacking options for the home team. They didn't threaten Southampton enough and Manchester United have a strong defensive shape which should lay the foundation for success here.
The home team were beaten by 5 of the top 6 here last season and 4 of those losses have come by at least a couple of goals. 8 of Manchester United's 10 away Premier League wins came by that margin too and I will look for Jose Mourinho's men to make it two wins out of two on Saturday and in impressive fashion too.
Leicester City v Brighton Pick: The last two years have given Leicester City the kind of rollercoaster ride their fans could never have imagined. In fact no one in football would have picked Leicester City as Premier League Champions and then following that up with a run to the Champions League Quarter Final, the best any English club did in the Champions League last season.
Expectations are in a funny place going into the season but most would probably be looking for a top half finish and perhaps a strong run in one of the domestic Cup competitions. Leicester City will also hope to maintain the strong home form of the last couple of seasons which have seen them win 22 of 38 Premier League games here.
Last season Leicester City beat all but one of the teams that finished in the bottom half at the King Power Stadium and they will be confident they can get off the mark for the new season here. Of those 8 wins against teams in the bottom half, Leicester City were able to win 6 of them by at least a couple of goals as their home form proved critical to avoid any relegation concerns.
The Foxes will be hoping to continue the dominance of teams in the bottom half at home when they face Brighton this weekend as the newly promoted side are expected to be fighting to avoid relegation for much of the coming season. Brighton were given a lesson by Manchester City last weekend as to how tough life can be in the Premier League and now they have to head to Leicester City which has proved to be one of the stronger home teams in the Division over the last couple of years.
The layers seem to have recognised that with the price on offer for a Leicester City win, but I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap. A one goal win will offer a profit, but a win by a wider margin could provide solid profits and Leicester City showed last season they can beat the 'lesser' teams in the Premier League at home by comfortable margins.
The goals scored last week will give Leicester City more belief although they will feel they can handle Brighton's attack much better than they did against Arsenal. I will look for The Foxes to come through with a relatively comfortable win on the day and perhaps send Chris Hughton and Brighton searching for further squad members ahead of the transfer window closing.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: A big week is coming up for Liverpool with three games in a row at Anfield which can see them make a really positive start to the new Premier League season as well as earn them a place in the Champions League Group Stage. Jurgen Klopp would love to have complete focus on that, but the Philippe Coutinho situation looks likely to continue to dominate his press conferences despite the obvious irritation the German has towards that line of questioning.
At least Liverpool are coming into the weekend off a really positive win in Hoffenheim during the week to erase the memory of the 3-3 draw with Watford which saw Liverpool concede a late equaliser. The attacking performances in both fixtures will give the fans plenty to be excited about, but defensively Liverpool still look way short of the standards you would expect.
Set pieces have been a real bugbear for Klopp's Liverpool to deal with and Crystal Palace do have the size and quality to expose that vulnerable underbelly of the Liverpool defence. However Frank de Boer's new system is going to take some time for the players to be comfortable in and they showed that in their heavy loss to Huddersfield Town last weekend.
David Wagner is from the same school of thought as his 'best man' Klopp and I expect Liverpool to press from the front and look to exploit mistakes in the Crystal Palace passing game as Huddersfield Town did. With the added quality Liverpool have in the final third, I think there is every chance Liverpool can punish The Eagles as effectively as Huddersfield Town did and it could be a long day in the office for the visitors.
Losing Wilfried Zaha takes away a real counter attacking threat from Crystal Palace and I would be really surprised if they could make it four Premier League wins in a row at Anfield. Christian Benteke hurt his former club last season with two goals here, but he will need better all around service than last week and I think Liverpool will be too good on the day.
Even without Coutinho Liverpool have shown they can create chances and score goals and I expect them to do that here at Anfield. The home side can get this week off to a perfect start as Liverpool expose a Crystal Palace still getting settled into Frank de Boer's system and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Southampton v West Ham United Pick: There is plenty of room for improvement for both Southampton and West Ham United after their opening weekend performances in the Premier League. It will be Mauricio Pellegrino who is feeling better than Slaven Bilic going into the week, but there definitely feels like there was more expectation at West Ham United than Southampton.
Having to reverse fixtures due to the athletics at the London Stadium is not ideal for West Ham United even if they have been one of the better away sides in the Premier League over the last two seasons. After the thumping at Manchester United, Bilic may have wanted to get back home in front of their own supporters, but this is out of his hands now.
West Ham United do have a solid enough recent record at St Mary’s and you have to expect an all around better defensive performance than the one produced last Sunday. They will need that as I can’t see Southampton lacking as much composure in the final third as they did in their goalless draw with Swansea City.
It may have been a pretty easy day in the office for Southampton if their strikers had not left their shooting boots on a beach somewhere over the summer. In fact it has been longer than that as Southampton have now failed to score in 6 consecutive home Premier League games which makes it very hard to trust them here.
The odds on quote looks to be all about how the teams have been perceived to have performed last weekend with Southampton a little unfortunate and West Ham United outplayed. However the early weeks of a new season can see performances fluctuate wildly and these teams are perhaps more evenly matched than the layers think.
Southampton as an odds on favourite shouldn’t appeal with the struggles in front of goal, although they created enough chances to be respected. Defensively they have looked sound for the most part and a West Ham United side without Manuel Lanzini may not have the guile to break The Saints down, even without Virgil Van Dijk to call upon.
It feels like this is going to be a close match between these teams and one goal may be enough to decide with the current shyness in front of goal. Picking a winner doesn’t look straight forward but backing two or fewer goals to be shared out looks the call.
Before last season, 5 consecutive games between Southampton and West Ham United on the south coast ended with two or fewer goals and I will look for that trend to get going again on Saturday.
Stoke City v Arsenal Pick: You could almost hear the rustling of paper and cardboard being put away frantically when Arsenal took the lead against Leicester City late in the game last weekend. A vocal minority may have been ready to blast Arsene Wenger and the team when trailing 2-3, but there are more positives which come after a 4-3 opening weekend win.
That hasn’t stopped the layers putting the Arsenal price on the drift this weekend with the poor defending looking like it may play into the Stoke City hands. Set pieces proved to be a real achilles heel for the Arsenal defence last week and that is one area where you would think Stoke City will be able to cause plenty of panic.
Per Mertesacker’s likely availability will help Arsenal, but they have to defend better as a unit if they are going to avoid a defeat here. However if they can get the defending right from set pieces, visiting Stoke City isn’t as daunting as it once was and Arsenal could win here.
They did that very effectively at the end of last season with a 1-4 win here and Arsenal will feel they have the attacking threats to hurt Stoke City even without Alexis Sanchez. Last week they scored four goals from four different sources and Stoke City were massively outplayed by Everton while looking short of confidence.
Mark Hughes is likely to be active in the transfer window over the next couple of weeks, but this current Stoke City squad look short. The change in style means it has become easier to play here for the big clubs and Hughes has to be concerned that Stoke City didn’t beat any team at home that finished above them in the Premier League table.
In fact Stoke City had just 1 win overall against a team that finished higher in the League table and were beaten by the top 5 here at the Bet365 Stadium. They have usually caused plenty of problems for Arsenal but a weaker looking squad that may be short of confidence and only three months ago took a beating from The Gunners is perhaps ripe for the taking.
There is every chance this price drifts a little more to become even more attractive, but I will lock in Arsenal now and back them to win for a second season in a row at a venue they haven’t enjoyed too much.
Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United Pick: A lot of teams will struggle to beat Tottenham Hotspur this season, but Newcastle United fans have to be worried about the standard of the current squad at the club. After earning promotion last season, there was a hope that huge investment would be made but both Rafa Benitez and the fans have been disappointed.
Moves may be made before the end of the transfer window, but this current squad looks short of the standard required in the Premier League. It was the main reason I picked Newcastle United to be one of the sides relegated from the Premier League this season and there has to be a concern that confidence has been knocked ahead of this second game of the season.
The match with Huddersfield Town may be more to Newcastle United's liking when you think how well they played against Championship opposition for much of last season. They won here in the second half of the season which was a part of their best away record in the Division and Newcastle United will feel they can create chances against a Huddersfield Town that will push forward to score the goals to win games.
However Newcastle United have to remember Huddersfield Town had the energy to beat them at St James' Park twelve months ago and the high press worked wonders that day. David Wagner's tactics created errors in the Crystal Palace game which helped Huddersfield Town win comfortably and they will feel they can expose the injuries in the Newcastle United defence.
Jonjo Shelvey's ridiculously selfish sending off has shorn Newcastle United of some of their better quality players and you can see why the home team are favoured. However Newcastle United played well away from home against the top teams which included winning in Brighton and here and they showed they can create chances in those games.
I do expect a more positive approach from Newcastle United than the one they had last Sunday and I expect the players to be more comfortable against the level they face this week. I also think Huddersfield Town will be very positive in the tactics that David Wagner will send his team out with and this could make this a more exciting game than the layers are anticipating.
Both League games between the two teams featured at least three goals last season and I will look for a positive approach from both teams to see that outcome reached at a big price this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: When the fixture list came out in June this was obviously the biggest game in the Premier League in the second week of the new season. Unsurprisingly it was quickly snapped up for television coverage, although Chelsea do come in with more problems than most would envision for the defending Champions.
Injury and suspension have shorn Chelsea of some of their key players, while Diego Costa has been ostracised and decided he won’t even return to the training ground. Selling off players like Nemanja Matic have upset Antonio Conte who has been desperate in calling for reinforcements before the transfer window closes.
All in all this has made Chelsea look vulnerable and the 2-3 home defeat to Burnley would have been another shock to the system.
The question is are Chelsea on the brink of imploding as they did in Jose Mourinho’s final season two years ago, or can Conte right the ship?
I think the latter will eventually occur once some of these early season injuries and suspensions clear up, and I do expect Chelsea to be active in the transfer market in the next two weeks. However this fixture may come a little too soon for The Blues and I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to take advantage.
Tottenham Hotspur were not at their fluid best at Newcastle United last weekend until Jonjo Shelvey saw the red mist descend, but you can’t worry too much about performances in the early stages of a season. They have the more settled starting line up who will be familiar with the jobs expected of them and I think that makes more of a difference than anything else this weekend.
Obviously playing at Wembley Stadium rather than White Hart Lane changes some of the dynamics of the fixture, but this may be the best way for the players to believe in their new ‘home’ by winning their opening League fixture here.
I don’t want to read too much into Chelsea’s loss to Burnley when everything seemed to conspire against them. However losing Gary Cahill and Cesc Fabregas to suspension is a big blow for Antonio Conte and I think some unfamiliarity with the new partnerships at the heart of the defence and midfield goes against them.
I do think Chelsea have a reaction, but Tottenham Hotspur look the more settled squad and I will look for them to win this fixture at odds against.
Manchester City v Everton Pick: Last weekend we opened the Premier League season with the first Friday Night Football of the season and this weekend we have the first Monday Night Football. It looks a good game on paper and one that will perhaps show what we are going to come to expect from Manchester City and a new look Everton team during the course of the season.
There has been a lot of talk about the improvement Everton have made, but I will be honest and say I would be surprised if they finished in the top six. It would need one of those clubs to really have a poor season, like Chelsea did two years ago, for that to happen and I don’t believe this Everton starting eleven is better than the one they had back in May.
Gylfi Sigurdsson is a good purchase, but I struggle to see him getting into the first eleven of any of the teams that finished above Everton last season.
With that in mind I think Everton may have to settle for a decent Cup run or two and another 7th placed finish in the Premier League. I think that could be highlighted here against a Manchester City team who look strong and with options for Pep Guardiola which is going to make it tough to contain them for the full ninety minutes.
Manchester City won’t have a cakewalk to the Premier League title, because no team really achieves that, but I think they will be much improved from last season if everyone remains fit and healthy.
The big failure for Manchester City last season was the fact they beat only 1 of the top 8 clubs at the Etihad Stadium. However the performances in those games does bode well for them and a little better composure in front of goal and things would have looked a lot brighter for them. Keeping Vincent Kompany fit is huge for them but I do expect better from Manchester City in the big games this time around.
Everton were beaten at 6 of the top 9 clubs last season and half of those losses came by at least two goals. They are an organised team under Koeman which can make Everton tough to beat, but I am expecting the Manchester City pressure to pay off in this one and the home team can wear down their visitors.
I am expecting Manchester City to massively improve the home scoring this time around and I will look for them to beat Everton by a couple of goals in this one.
Bristol City v Millwall Pick: The Championship is already proving how highly competitive it is going to be this season and I have struggled to find any picks I am confident about from the fourth round of fixtures this weekend.
At this stage a watching brief can be the best way forward as teams continue to find new faces to bring in with the transfer window still a couple of weeks away.
The one pick that did stand out comes from Ashton Gate where Bristol City will host Millwall in what feels like could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Both Lee Johnson and Neil Harris like to see their teams go forward in search of goals and so far both Bristol City and Millwall have responded.
However neither has looked completely sure of themselves at the back and that should mean chances are created throughout this match. Millwall’s lack of composure against Nottingham Forest in their one away game this season is a concern with some gilt-edged chances missed in that one, but they have since scored 6 goals in 3 home games.
Bristol City have managed at least two goals in 3 of their 4 games this season, but have also only kept a single clean sheet.
With both teams likely circling this kind of fixture as one they ‘can win’, I will look for an exciting, attacking game to develop and at least three goals shared out between them.
Girona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The opening games in every League around Europe can be difficult for every club with the fitness issues meaning the differences in quality between clubs might not always show up.
We do get surprise results and you have to be wary of those, but I do think Atletico Madrid will be too good for the new boys Girona especially having kept Diego Simeone and Antoine Griezmann around.
The transfer ban is a problem in terms of Atletico being able to get closer to Real Madrid and Barcelona domestically, but they still look to be the third best team in Spain.
I expect their continuity will help early in the season and I do think Atletico Madrid will have a little too much experience for Girona to deal with. Girona have worked wonders to make their debut season in the Primera Division and being linked with Manchester City may mean some key players arrive before the transfer window closes to aid them in staying in this Division.
That has to be the only goal for Girona this season, but they are not coming up with a lot of momentum having struggled down the stretch in the Segunda Division. Some of that may have been down to feeling the pressure of earning promotion, but I do wonder if they will be able to compete with the higher level of the Primera Division.
Facing a side who pride themselves on being defensively organised will be a challenge for Girona and Atletico Madrid have had 21 clean sheets in their last 38 away League games.
I expect they can get another one here and I will look for Atletico Madrid to open their season with a narrow win. That should be based on a clean sheet too and I will back Atletico at odds against to win with one of those in the pocket.
Deportivo v Real Madrid Pick: The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo didn’t bother Real Madrid as they brushed Barcelona aside for the second time in a number of days in the Spanish Super Cup. A team who has won four trophies in their last five games has to be full of confidence even without their talisman and Real Madrid are strong favourites to get their season off to a positive start in the Primera Division.
It’s hard to see Deportivo really being able to stay with Real Madrid even if they did beat Barcelona here last season. This is a team who have generally been struggling since returning to the top flight and I am not sure this season is going to be much different for them.
Deportivo were able to raise their game against the top clubs last season, but they have not been able to compete with Real Madrid who bring plenty of firepower to the table.
That feels like being the difference again even if the layers are not so sure without Ronaldo playing. I still think Real Madrid have enough talent to win here by a couple of goals for the fourth season in a row since Deportivo returned to the top flight.
Real Madrid have had competitive matches under their belt which should mean they are to ready to come out of the traps in the Primera Division and they may catch Deportivo out here. The chances Real Madrid create should ensure they have every chance of covering the Asian Handicap on the opening weekend of the season and I will back the current Spanish and European Champions to do that.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bristol City-Millwall Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
August 2017/18 Update: 14-14-2, + 0.92 Units (42 Units Staked, + 2.19% Yield)
This week is a big one with the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage draws being made on Thursday and Friday respectively and then we get into the final round of domestic League matches before the two international break as the World Cup Qualifiers reach the business end throughout the world.
I hate that international break so soon into the new season, and teams could be trying to gel new faces that have been signed before the transfer window closed. After the long wait for football it feels like we should be allowed to really get our teeth into the new season before having another break, but it does mean the matches will be coming thick and fast in September.
This weekend also sees the beginning of domestic football in the other major European Leagues with Germany, Italy and Spain all getting underway.
It should mean a fun weekend with some top matches to come as we get to see all the top teams in action.
Before we get onto the picks, I will mention the short piece written about Manchester United before the season started. You can read that here and the weekend picks follow below.
Swansea City v Manchester United Pick: You don't want to read too much into the opening weekend of a new Premier League season when results can be a little funny as some teams will naturally be further along with their preparation than others. However Swansea City are going to need to be a lot better than they were last weekend if they are going to contain this Manchester United side.
The goalless draw at Southampton may be seen in a positive for the simple fact that Paul Clement's men earned a point from the game. However Southampton had enough chances to win two games of football and only a lack of composure in front of goal prevented them doing that.
Not many will accuse Manchester United of a lack of composure after ripping apart West Ham United at Old Trafford last Sunday. No one will be patting themselves on the back though and Jose Mourinho will know there is room for improvement which I expect Manchester United to make the more the team gels together in the months ahead.
The goals scored by Romelu Lukaku will give him plenty of confidence though and the likes of Anthony Martial and Paul Pogba adding goals will be encouraging to Manchester United too. The attacking players at the Liberty Stadium should be encouraged if Swansea City defend as poorly as they did at times at Southampton and I do worry for the home team unless they can make some significant transfer moves before the summer transfer window closes.
Swansea City lost Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton this week and Fernando Llorente is expected to miss out which takes away big attacking options for the home team. They didn't threaten Southampton enough and Manchester United have a strong defensive shape which should lay the foundation for success here.
The home team were beaten by 5 of the top 6 here last season and 4 of those losses have come by at least a couple of goals. 8 of Manchester United's 10 away Premier League wins came by that margin too and I will look for Jose Mourinho's men to make it two wins out of two on Saturday and in impressive fashion too.
Leicester City v Brighton Pick: The last two years have given Leicester City the kind of rollercoaster ride their fans could never have imagined. In fact no one in football would have picked Leicester City as Premier League Champions and then following that up with a run to the Champions League Quarter Final, the best any English club did in the Champions League last season.
Expectations are in a funny place going into the season but most would probably be looking for a top half finish and perhaps a strong run in one of the domestic Cup competitions. Leicester City will also hope to maintain the strong home form of the last couple of seasons which have seen them win 22 of 38 Premier League games here.
Last season Leicester City beat all but one of the teams that finished in the bottom half at the King Power Stadium and they will be confident they can get off the mark for the new season here. Of those 8 wins against teams in the bottom half, Leicester City were able to win 6 of them by at least a couple of goals as their home form proved critical to avoid any relegation concerns.
The Foxes will be hoping to continue the dominance of teams in the bottom half at home when they face Brighton this weekend as the newly promoted side are expected to be fighting to avoid relegation for much of the coming season. Brighton were given a lesson by Manchester City last weekend as to how tough life can be in the Premier League and now they have to head to Leicester City which has proved to be one of the stronger home teams in the Division over the last couple of years.
The layers seem to have recognised that with the price on offer for a Leicester City win, but I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap. A one goal win will offer a profit, but a win by a wider margin could provide solid profits and Leicester City showed last season they can beat the 'lesser' teams in the Premier League at home by comfortable margins.
The goals scored last week will give Leicester City more belief although they will feel they can handle Brighton's attack much better than they did against Arsenal. I will look for The Foxes to come through with a relatively comfortable win on the day and perhaps send Chris Hughton and Brighton searching for further squad members ahead of the transfer window closing.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: A big week is coming up for Liverpool with three games in a row at Anfield which can see them make a really positive start to the new Premier League season as well as earn them a place in the Champions League Group Stage. Jurgen Klopp would love to have complete focus on that, but the Philippe Coutinho situation looks likely to continue to dominate his press conferences despite the obvious irritation the German has towards that line of questioning.
At least Liverpool are coming into the weekend off a really positive win in Hoffenheim during the week to erase the memory of the 3-3 draw with Watford which saw Liverpool concede a late equaliser. The attacking performances in both fixtures will give the fans plenty to be excited about, but defensively Liverpool still look way short of the standards you would expect.
Set pieces have been a real bugbear for Klopp's Liverpool to deal with and Crystal Palace do have the size and quality to expose that vulnerable underbelly of the Liverpool defence. However Frank de Boer's new system is going to take some time for the players to be comfortable in and they showed that in their heavy loss to Huddersfield Town last weekend.
David Wagner is from the same school of thought as his 'best man' Klopp and I expect Liverpool to press from the front and look to exploit mistakes in the Crystal Palace passing game as Huddersfield Town did. With the added quality Liverpool have in the final third, I think there is every chance Liverpool can punish The Eagles as effectively as Huddersfield Town did and it could be a long day in the office for the visitors.
Losing Wilfried Zaha takes away a real counter attacking threat from Crystal Palace and I would be really surprised if they could make it four Premier League wins in a row at Anfield. Christian Benteke hurt his former club last season with two goals here, but he will need better all around service than last week and I think Liverpool will be too good on the day.
Even without Coutinho Liverpool have shown they can create chances and score goals and I expect them to do that here at Anfield. The home side can get this week off to a perfect start as Liverpool expose a Crystal Palace still getting settled into Frank de Boer's system and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Southampton v West Ham United Pick: There is plenty of room for improvement for both Southampton and West Ham United after their opening weekend performances in the Premier League. It will be Mauricio Pellegrino who is feeling better than Slaven Bilic going into the week, but there definitely feels like there was more expectation at West Ham United than Southampton.
Having to reverse fixtures due to the athletics at the London Stadium is not ideal for West Ham United even if they have been one of the better away sides in the Premier League over the last two seasons. After the thumping at Manchester United, Bilic may have wanted to get back home in front of their own supporters, but this is out of his hands now.
West Ham United do have a solid enough recent record at St Mary’s and you have to expect an all around better defensive performance than the one produced last Sunday. They will need that as I can’t see Southampton lacking as much composure in the final third as they did in their goalless draw with Swansea City.
It may have been a pretty easy day in the office for Southampton if their strikers had not left their shooting boots on a beach somewhere over the summer. In fact it has been longer than that as Southampton have now failed to score in 6 consecutive home Premier League games which makes it very hard to trust them here.
The odds on quote looks to be all about how the teams have been perceived to have performed last weekend with Southampton a little unfortunate and West Ham United outplayed. However the early weeks of a new season can see performances fluctuate wildly and these teams are perhaps more evenly matched than the layers think.
Southampton as an odds on favourite shouldn’t appeal with the struggles in front of goal, although they created enough chances to be respected. Defensively they have looked sound for the most part and a West Ham United side without Manuel Lanzini may not have the guile to break The Saints down, even without Virgil Van Dijk to call upon.
It feels like this is going to be a close match between these teams and one goal may be enough to decide with the current shyness in front of goal. Picking a winner doesn’t look straight forward but backing two or fewer goals to be shared out looks the call.
Before last season, 5 consecutive games between Southampton and West Ham United on the south coast ended with two or fewer goals and I will look for that trend to get going again on Saturday.
Stoke City v Arsenal Pick: You could almost hear the rustling of paper and cardboard being put away frantically when Arsenal took the lead against Leicester City late in the game last weekend. A vocal minority may have been ready to blast Arsene Wenger and the team when trailing 2-3, but there are more positives which come after a 4-3 opening weekend win.
That hasn’t stopped the layers putting the Arsenal price on the drift this weekend with the poor defending looking like it may play into the Stoke City hands. Set pieces proved to be a real achilles heel for the Arsenal defence last week and that is one area where you would think Stoke City will be able to cause plenty of panic.
Per Mertesacker’s likely availability will help Arsenal, but they have to defend better as a unit if they are going to avoid a defeat here. However if they can get the defending right from set pieces, visiting Stoke City isn’t as daunting as it once was and Arsenal could win here.
They did that very effectively at the end of last season with a 1-4 win here and Arsenal will feel they have the attacking threats to hurt Stoke City even without Alexis Sanchez. Last week they scored four goals from four different sources and Stoke City were massively outplayed by Everton while looking short of confidence.
Mark Hughes is likely to be active in the transfer window over the next couple of weeks, but this current Stoke City squad look short. The change in style means it has become easier to play here for the big clubs and Hughes has to be concerned that Stoke City didn’t beat any team at home that finished above them in the Premier League table.
In fact Stoke City had just 1 win overall against a team that finished higher in the League table and were beaten by the top 5 here at the Bet365 Stadium. They have usually caused plenty of problems for Arsenal but a weaker looking squad that may be short of confidence and only three months ago took a beating from The Gunners is perhaps ripe for the taking.
There is every chance this price drifts a little more to become even more attractive, but I will lock in Arsenal now and back them to win for a second season in a row at a venue they haven’t enjoyed too much.
Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United Pick: A lot of teams will struggle to beat Tottenham Hotspur this season, but Newcastle United fans have to be worried about the standard of the current squad at the club. After earning promotion last season, there was a hope that huge investment would be made but both Rafa Benitez and the fans have been disappointed.
Moves may be made before the end of the transfer window, but this current squad looks short of the standard required in the Premier League. It was the main reason I picked Newcastle United to be one of the sides relegated from the Premier League this season and there has to be a concern that confidence has been knocked ahead of this second game of the season.
The match with Huddersfield Town may be more to Newcastle United's liking when you think how well they played against Championship opposition for much of last season. They won here in the second half of the season which was a part of their best away record in the Division and Newcastle United will feel they can create chances against a Huddersfield Town that will push forward to score the goals to win games.
However Newcastle United have to remember Huddersfield Town had the energy to beat them at St James' Park twelve months ago and the high press worked wonders that day. David Wagner's tactics created errors in the Crystal Palace game which helped Huddersfield Town win comfortably and they will feel they can expose the injuries in the Newcastle United defence.
Jonjo Shelvey's ridiculously selfish sending off has shorn Newcastle United of some of their better quality players and you can see why the home team are favoured. However Newcastle United played well away from home against the top teams which included winning in Brighton and here and they showed they can create chances in those games.
I do expect a more positive approach from Newcastle United than the one they had last Sunday and I expect the players to be more comfortable against the level they face this week. I also think Huddersfield Town will be very positive in the tactics that David Wagner will send his team out with and this could make this a more exciting game than the layers are anticipating.
Both League games between the two teams featured at least three goals last season and I will look for a positive approach from both teams to see that outcome reached at a big price this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: When the fixture list came out in June this was obviously the biggest game in the Premier League in the second week of the new season. Unsurprisingly it was quickly snapped up for television coverage, although Chelsea do come in with more problems than most would envision for the defending Champions.
Injury and suspension have shorn Chelsea of some of their key players, while Diego Costa has been ostracised and decided he won’t even return to the training ground. Selling off players like Nemanja Matic have upset Antonio Conte who has been desperate in calling for reinforcements before the transfer window closes.
All in all this has made Chelsea look vulnerable and the 2-3 home defeat to Burnley would have been another shock to the system.
The question is are Chelsea on the brink of imploding as they did in Jose Mourinho’s final season two years ago, or can Conte right the ship?
I think the latter will eventually occur once some of these early season injuries and suspensions clear up, and I do expect Chelsea to be active in the transfer market in the next two weeks. However this fixture may come a little too soon for The Blues and I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to take advantage.
Tottenham Hotspur were not at their fluid best at Newcastle United last weekend until Jonjo Shelvey saw the red mist descend, but you can’t worry too much about performances in the early stages of a season. They have the more settled starting line up who will be familiar with the jobs expected of them and I think that makes more of a difference than anything else this weekend.
Obviously playing at Wembley Stadium rather than White Hart Lane changes some of the dynamics of the fixture, but this may be the best way for the players to believe in their new ‘home’ by winning their opening League fixture here.
I don’t want to read too much into Chelsea’s loss to Burnley when everything seemed to conspire against them. However losing Gary Cahill and Cesc Fabregas to suspension is a big blow for Antonio Conte and I think some unfamiliarity with the new partnerships at the heart of the defence and midfield goes against them.
I do think Chelsea have a reaction, but Tottenham Hotspur look the more settled squad and I will look for them to win this fixture at odds against.
Manchester City v Everton Pick: Last weekend we opened the Premier League season with the first Friday Night Football of the season and this weekend we have the first Monday Night Football. It looks a good game on paper and one that will perhaps show what we are going to come to expect from Manchester City and a new look Everton team during the course of the season.
There has been a lot of talk about the improvement Everton have made, but I will be honest and say I would be surprised if they finished in the top six. It would need one of those clubs to really have a poor season, like Chelsea did two years ago, for that to happen and I don’t believe this Everton starting eleven is better than the one they had back in May.
Gylfi Sigurdsson is a good purchase, but I struggle to see him getting into the first eleven of any of the teams that finished above Everton last season.
With that in mind I think Everton may have to settle for a decent Cup run or two and another 7th placed finish in the Premier League. I think that could be highlighted here against a Manchester City team who look strong and with options for Pep Guardiola which is going to make it tough to contain them for the full ninety minutes.
Manchester City won’t have a cakewalk to the Premier League title, because no team really achieves that, but I think they will be much improved from last season if everyone remains fit and healthy.
The big failure for Manchester City last season was the fact they beat only 1 of the top 8 clubs at the Etihad Stadium. However the performances in those games does bode well for them and a little better composure in front of goal and things would have looked a lot brighter for them. Keeping Vincent Kompany fit is huge for them but I do expect better from Manchester City in the big games this time around.
Everton were beaten at 6 of the top 9 clubs last season and half of those losses came by at least two goals. They are an organised team under Koeman which can make Everton tough to beat, but I am expecting the Manchester City pressure to pay off in this one and the home team can wear down their visitors.
I am expecting Manchester City to massively improve the home scoring this time around and I will look for them to beat Everton by a couple of goals in this one.
Bristol City v Millwall Pick: The Championship is already proving how highly competitive it is going to be this season and I have struggled to find any picks I am confident about from the fourth round of fixtures this weekend.
At this stage a watching brief can be the best way forward as teams continue to find new faces to bring in with the transfer window still a couple of weeks away.
The one pick that did stand out comes from Ashton Gate where Bristol City will host Millwall in what feels like could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Both Lee Johnson and Neil Harris like to see their teams go forward in search of goals and so far both Bristol City and Millwall have responded.
However neither has looked completely sure of themselves at the back and that should mean chances are created throughout this match. Millwall’s lack of composure against Nottingham Forest in their one away game this season is a concern with some gilt-edged chances missed in that one, but they have since scored 6 goals in 3 home games.
Bristol City have managed at least two goals in 3 of their 4 games this season, but have also only kept a single clean sheet.
With both teams likely circling this kind of fixture as one they ‘can win’, I will look for an exciting, attacking game to develop and at least three goals shared out between them.
Girona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The opening games in every League around Europe can be difficult for every club with the fitness issues meaning the differences in quality between clubs might not always show up.
We do get surprise results and you have to be wary of those, but I do think Atletico Madrid will be too good for the new boys Girona especially having kept Diego Simeone and Antoine Griezmann around.
The transfer ban is a problem in terms of Atletico being able to get closer to Real Madrid and Barcelona domestically, but they still look to be the third best team in Spain.
I expect their continuity will help early in the season and I do think Atletico Madrid will have a little too much experience for Girona to deal with. Girona have worked wonders to make their debut season in the Primera Division and being linked with Manchester City may mean some key players arrive before the transfer window closes to aid them in staying in this Division.
That has to be the only goal for Girona this season, but they are not coming up with a lot of momentum having struggled down the stretch in the Segunda Division. Some of that may have been down to feeling the pressure of earning promotion, but I do wonder if they will be able to compete with the higher level of the Primera Division.
Facing a side who pride themselves on being defensively organised will be a challenge for Girona and Atletico Madrid have had 21 clean sheets in their last 38 away League games.
I expect they can get another one here and I will look for Atletico Madrid to open their season with a narrow win. That should be based on a clean sheet too and I will back Atletico at odds against to win with one of those in the pocket.
Deportivo v Real Madrid Pick: The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo didn’t bother Real Madrid as they brushed Barcelona aside for the second time in a number of days in the Spanish Super Cup. A team who has won four trophies in their last five games has to be full of confidence even without their talisman and Real Madrid are strong favourites to get their season off to a positive start in the Primera Division.
It’s hard to see Deportivo really being able to stay with Real Madrid even if they did beat Barcelona here last season. This is a team who have generally been struggling since returning to the top flight and I am not sure this season is going to be much different for them.
Deportivo were able to raise their game against the top clubs last season, but they have not been able to compete with Real Madrid who bring plenty of firepower to the table.
That feels like being the difference again even if the layers are not so sure without Ronaldo playing. I still think Real Madrid have enough talent to win here by a couple of goals for the fourth season in a row since Deportivo returned to the top flight.
Real Madrid have had competitive matches under their belt which should mean they are to ready to come out of the traps in the Primera Division and they may catch Deportivo out here. The chances Real Madrid create should ensure they have every chance of covering the Asian Handicap on the opening weekend of the season and I will back the current Spanish and European Champions to do that.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bristol City-Millwall Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
August 2017/18 Update: 14-14-2, + 0.92 Units (42 Units Staked, + 2.19% Yield)
Friday, 21 August 2015
Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (August 21st)
There were literally about three points which could have turned the entire day around yesterday and produced a very strong winning record.
Ivo Karlovic saved a break point with a volley that hit the frame of his racquet which would have seen Stan Wawrinka cover the small number... Anything other than the frame and the ball either doesn't go over the net or is popped up for an easy finish for Wawrinka, but the frame job meant the ball died over the net!
Alexandr Dolgopolov had two match points at 5-2 in the final set but missed both and if both had won their matches, it would have led to a 5-2 day, rather than a 3-4 one.
The Quarter Finals are to be played on Friday and there are some top matches out on the courts for the fans to enjoy.
I did consider backing Stan Wawrinka with the games to at least cover versus Novak Djokovic, but I think his poor record against Djokovic outside of the Slams and the doubts about both players makes that a tough match to call. I do think Djokovic is there to be beaten this week on his first couple of performances and a more accomplished player than David Goffin would have beaten him on Thursday, but Wawrinka seems to be struggling mentally from the issues that came out last week and it is going to be close either way.
One more game and I would have picked Wawrinka, but he was still tempting at odds against.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Alexander Dolgopolov: It was an impressive and routine win for Tomas Berdych on Thursday as he crushed Tommy Robredo for the loss of just one game. There won't be an issues regarding his fitness and Berdych should be ready to reach yet another Masters Semi Final, his fourth of the season.
Berdych has been very consistent through 2015 and has regularly been at the business end of events if not quite having enough to go a little further and pick up the title. He has reached three Finals this season, but Berdych is yet to add to his career 10 titles and it is going to be tough for him to match the 2 he had last season.
This tournament might present a good chance for Berdych to break his 2015 duck as there are questions about how much is left in the tank for Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. I fully expect Berdych to continue his strong head to head against Alexandr Dolgopolov who has had to battle through a lot of tennis this week having begun the week in the qualifiers.
The erratic play from Dolgopolov makes him a dangerous customer, particularly on the faster surfaces, but he it also means he is likely to throw in a couple of shocking service games. That should give Berdych and his usually consistent level of play the chance to come through this, after a few difficult moments, with a 64, 64 win.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: On Thursday, Roger Federer dismantled the big game he was facing from Kevin Anderson for the loss of just two games as he continues his love affair with the Cincinnati Masters. Instead of the big Quarter Final we all wanted to see against Rafael Nadal, Federer will play Feliciano Lopez in the evening and he will be expected to extend his winning run against the Spaniard.
For the last couple of sets on Thursday, Lopez served very well against Rafael Nadal, although I think the latter missed a trick with his return of serve that Federer simply won't. The first serve Lopez has is a big weapon, but Nadal did nullify that in the first set and Federer is capable of getting a lot of low balls back to make the serve-volley very difficult for Lopez to execute.
There is no doubt this is a dangerous number of games to cover if Lopez is serving first, but Federer showed he is capable of breaking down big games against Anderson and break multiple times. The Lopez backhand is going to be severely tested against the forehand Federer possesses and I think the Federer backhand has improved enough to make some tough passes.
Federer created multiple break points in a match against Lopez last year at the Canadian Masters and took two of those for a routine 63, 64 win. I think he is playing well enough to match that again and move into yet another Semi Final in Cincinnati.
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games v Anna Karolina Schmiedlova: It has been a good six weeks of tennis since Wimbledon for Anna Karolina Schmiedlova who picked up a title on the clay courts and has also reached the Semi Final of another event on that surface.
The move to the hard courts might have been a difficult transition for some players, but Schmiedlova has come through the qualifiers in Cincinnati won three matches in the main draw to reach the Quarter Finals. The improvement in the World Ranking will mean Schmiedlova won't have to qualify for events like this in the foreseeable future, but she will also feel the Quarter Final against Jelena Jankovic gives her a great chance to progress further.
However, Jankovic has had a very good week herself with some impressive wins over the likes of Madison Keys and Karolina Pliskova which will have given her some confidence. Jankovic is no longer as consistent in her play as the days that took her up to World Number 1, but her last big run in North America took her to the Indian Wells Premier Event Final.
Her run was ended by Serena Williams in this Round last year, but Jankovic can battle past Schmiedlova in another tough three setter and also get over this number.
Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: An injury to Victoria Azarenka helped Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova into the Quarter Final despite losing the first set 61 and I think the challenge of Simona Halep will be too much for the Russian. There is plenty of power in the Pavlyuchenkova game, but her movement has always been questionable and someone like Halep is capable of exposing those holes.
After retiring with an injury in the Toronto Final last week, Halep has shown plenty of character to win two three set matches this week to get into the Quarter Final. The heat and a leg injury contributed to that retirement in Toronto, but Halep seems to have overcome that and is playing in the cooler evening conditions in Cincinnati which should aid her.
Her serve can be an issue, but I expect Halep to use her superior movement to keep Pavlyuchenkova from hitting from a standing position when her power can be tough to deal with. I think that movement is a big reason Halep has been able to win all four previous matches against Pavlyuchenkova and three of those wins have come by wide margins which would cover this number.
Of course you have to be concerned with the cramping and leg issues she had in Canada, but Halep has battled hard this week and I think she can win this 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Stan James (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Masters Update: 11-11, - 2.34 Units (44 Units Staked, - 5.32% Yield)
Ivo Karlovic saved a break point with a volley that hit the frame of his racquet which would have seen Stan Wawrinka cover the small number... Anything other than the frame and the ball either doesn't go over the net or is popped up for an easy finish for Wawrinka, but the frame job meant the ball died over the net!
Alexandr Dolgopolov had two match points at 5-2 in the final set but missed both and if both had won their matches, it would have led to a 5-2 day, rather than a 3-4 one.
The Quarter Finals are to be played on Friday and there are some top matches out on the courts for the fans to enjoy.
I did consider backing Stan Wawrinka with the games to at least cover versus Novak Djokovic, but I think his poor record against Djokovic outside of the Slams and the doubts about both players makes that a tough match to call. I do think Djokovic is there to be beaten this week on his first couple of performances and a more accomplished player than David Goffin would have beaten him on Thursday, but Wawrinka seems to be struggling mentally from the issues that came out last week and it is going to be close either way.
One more game and I would have picked Wawrinka, but he was still tempting at odds against.
Tomas Berdych - 3.5 games v Alexander Dolgopolov: It was an impressive and routine win for Tomas Berdych on Thursday as he crushed Tommy Robredo for the loss of just one game. There won't be an issues regarding his fitness and Berdych should be ready to reach yet another Masters Semi Final, his fourth of the season.
Berdych has been very consistent through 2015 and has regularly been at the business end of events if not quite having enough to go a little further and pick up the title. He has reached three Finals this season, but Berdych is yet to add to his career 10 titles and it is going to be tough for him to match the 2 he had last season.
This tournament might present a good chance for Berdych to break his 2015 duck as there are questions about how much is left in the tank for Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. I fully expect Berdych to continue his strong head to head against Alexandr Dolgopolov who has had to battle through a lot of tennis this week having begun the week in the qualifiers.
The erratic play from Dolgopolov makes him a dangerous customer, particularly on the faster surfaces, but he it also means he is likely to throw in a couple of shocking service games. That should give Berdych and his usually consistent level of play the chance to come through this, after a few difficult moments, with a 64, 64 win.
Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: On Thursday, Roger Federer dismantled the big game he was facing from Kevin Anderson for the loss of just two games as he continues his love affair with the Cincinnati Masters. Instead of the big Quarter Final we all wanted to see against Rafael Nadal, Federer will play Feliciano Lopez in the evening and he will be expected to extend his winning run against the Spaniard.
For the last couple of sets on Thursday, Lopez served very well against Rafael Nadal, although I think the latter missed a trick with his return of serve that Federer simply won't. The first serve Lopez has is a big weapon, but Nadal did nullify that in the first set and Federer is capable of getting a lot of low balls back to make the serve-volley very difficult for Lopez to execute.
There is no doubt this is a dangerous number of games to cover if Lopez is serving first, but Federer showed he is capable of breaking down big games against Anderson and break multiple times. The Lopez backhand is going to be severely tested against the forehand Federer possesses and I think the Federer backhand has improved enough to make some tough passes.
Federer created multiple break points in a match against Lopez last year at the Canadian Masters and took two of those for a routine 63, 64 win. I think he is playing well enough to match that again and move into yet another Semi Final in Cincinnati.
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 games v Anna Karolina Schmiedlova: It has been a good six weeks of tennis since Wimbledon for Anna Karolina Schmiedlova who picked up a title on the clay courts and has also reached the Semi Final of another event on that surface.
The move to the hard courts might have been a difficult transition for some players, but Schmiedlova has come through the qualifiers in Cincinnati won three matches in the main draw to reach the Quarter Finals. The improvement in the World Ranking will mean Schmiedlova won't have to qualify for events like this in the foreseeable future, but she will also feel the Quarter Final against Jelena Jankovic gives her a great chance to progress further.
However, Jankovic has had a very good week herself with some impressive wins over the likes of Madison Keys and Karolina Pliskova which will have given her some confidence. Jankovic is no longer as consistent in her play as the days that took her up to World Number 1, but her last big run in North America took her to the Indian Wells Premier Event Final.
Her run was ended by Serena Williams in this Round last year, but Jankovic can battle past Schmiedlova in another tough three setter and also get over this number.
Simona Halep - 4.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: An injury to Victoria Azarenka helped Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova into the Quarter Final despite losing the first set 61 and I think the challenge of Simona Halep will be too much for the Russian. There is plenty of power in the Pavlyuchenkova game, but her movement has always been questionable and someone like Halep is capable of exposing those holes.
After retiring with an injury in the Toronto Final last week, Halep has shown plenty of character to win two three set matches this week to get into the Quarter Final. The heat and a leg injury contributed to that retirement in Toronto, but Halep seems to have overcome that and is playing in the cooler evening conditions in Cincinnati which should aid her.
Her serve can be an issue, but I expect Halep to use her superior movement to keep Pavlyuchenkova from hitting from a standing position when her power can be tough to deal with. I think that movement is a big reason Halep has been able to win all four previous matches against Pavlyuchenkova and three of those wins have come by wide margins which would cover this number.
Of course you have to be concerned with the cramping and leg issues she had in Canada, but Halep has battled hard this week and I think she can win this 64, 62.
MY PICKS: Tomas Berdych - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Stan James (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Jelena Jankovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Simona Halep - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Masters Update: 11-11, - 2.34 Units (44 Units Staked, - 5.32% Yield)
Tuesday, 21 August 2012
Midweek Football Picks (August 21-23)
The first weekend of the new season is already in the history books, but it is a fast start as we get into the European qualifying games, another full set of fixtures from the lower Leagues in England ahead of the next weekend of a full schedule.
My 'Final Thoughts' from the first weekend of the season can be found here
Picks from the midweek schedule can be found below:
Spartak Moscow v Fenerbache Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14701-Spartak-Moscow-v-Fenerbache.htm)
Sheffield Wednesday v Birmingham City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14698-Sheffield-Wednesday-v-Birmingham-City.htm)
Middlesbrough v Burnley Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14696-Middlesbrough-v-Burnley.htm)
BATE Borisov v Ironi Kiryat Shmona Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14708-BATE-Borisov-v-Ironi-Kiryat-Shmona.htm)
Blackburn Rovers v Hull City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14706-Blackburn-Rovers-v-Hull-City.htm)
Hearts v Liverpool Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14713-Hearts-v-Liverpool.htm)
Atromitos Athens v Newcastle United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14715-Atromitos-Athens-v-Newcastle-United.htm)
MY PICKS: Spartak Moscow @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday-Birmingham City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Burnley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
BATE Borisov @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Blackburn Rovers @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Liverpool Win to Nil @ 2.25 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Atromitos Athens-Newcastle United Draw @ 3.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
August Update: 3-4, + 0.34 Units (15 Units Staked)
My 'Final Thoughts' from the first weekend of the season can be found here
Picks from the midweek schedule can be found below:
Spartak Moscow v Fenerbache Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14701-Spartak-Moscow-v-Fenerbache.htm)
Sheffield Wednesday v Birmingham City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14698-Sheffield-Wednesday-v-Birmingham-City.htm)
Middlesbrough v Burnley Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14696-Middlesbrough-v-Burnley.htm)
BATE Borisov v Ironi Kiryat Shmona Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14708-BATE-Borisov-v-Ironi-Kiryat-Shmona.htm)
Blackburn Rovers v Hull City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14706-Blackburn-Rovers-v-Hull-City.htm)
Hearts v Liverpool Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14713-Hearts-v-Liverpool.htm)
Atromitos Athens v Newcastle United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14715-Atromitos-Athens-v-Newcastle-United.htm)
MY PICKS: Spartak Moscow @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sheffield Wednesday-Birmingham City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Burnley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
BATE Borisov @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Blackburn Rovers @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Liverpool Win to Nil @ 2.25 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Atromitos Athens-Newcastle United Draw @ 3.30 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
August Update: 3-4, + 0.34 Units (15 Units Staked)
Saturday, 20 August 2011
Sunday 21st August English and Scottish Football Picks and Previews
The full previews and reasoning can be found from the links provided:
Wolves v Fulham (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11395-Wolves-v-Fulham.htm)
Bolton v Manchester City (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11397-Bolton-v-Manchester-City.htm)
West Ham v Leeds (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11399-West-Ham-United-v-Leeds-United.htm)
Middlesbrough v Birmingham City (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11400-Middlesbrough-v-Birmingham-City.htm)
Celtic v St Johnstone (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11401-Celtic-v-St-Johnstone.htm)
MY PICKS: Wolves @ 2.45 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Bolton-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
West Ham @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Middlesbrough @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Celtic - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units) This Asian Handicap works where half the stake is considered a winner if Celtic win by 2 goals and the other half is returned; The pick is a full winner if Celtic win by 3 goals, and a loser if Celtic win by less than 2 goals or fail to win.
AUGUST FOOTBALL PROFIT/LOSS: 13-16, - 1.38 Units
Wolves v Fulham (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11395-Wolves-v-Fulham.htm)
Bolton v Manchester City (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11397-Bolton-v-Manchester-City.htm)
West Ham v Leeds (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11399-West-Ham-United-v-Leeds-United.htm)
Middlesbrough v Birmingham City (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11400-Middlesbrough-v-Birmingham-City.htm)
Celtic v St Johnstone (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-11401-Celtic-v-St-Johnstone.htm)
MY PICKS: Wolves @ 2.45 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Bolton-Manchester City Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
West Ham @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Middlesbrough @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Celtic - 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units) This Asian Handicap works where half the stake is considered a winner if Celtic win by 2 goals and the other half is returned; The pick is a full winner if Celtic win by 3 goals, and a loser if Celtic win by less than 2 goals or fail to win.
AUGUST FOOTBALL PROFIT/LOSS: 13-16, - 1.38 Units
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