This is the final round of domestic League games before the first international break of the 2017/18 season with the World Cup Qualifiers scheduled to be played from Thursday next week until the following Tuesday.
August can be a busy start to the new European season, but September is when things really start heating up with two rounds of Champions League/Europa League games as well as the Third Round of the League Cup and plenty of League football to be played too.
On Thursday the Champions League draw was made and there were six British clubs who were keenly awaiting news about who they will have to compete with over the next three months.
As a Manchester United fan I could not have been happier with Group A even if I have already made the point that both Benfica and Basel helped knock Manchester United out of the Group Stage in the 2011/12 season. However this Manchester United team have the European experience of winning the Europa League and they are playing with plenty of confidence and I would be stunned if there was a repeat.
In fact I really think Manchester United have to be thinking about winning the Group and earning a Seed for the Last 16 draw.
Chelsea were one of the top Seeds in the draw having won the Premier League title, but they would have hoped for better than having to deal with Atletico Madrid and Roma in the Group. As long as Antonio Conte can settle his differences with the power brokers at Stamford Bridge, you have to think Chelsea will have enough to move through to the Last 16 alongside Roma.
There were two English clubs in Pot 3 of the draw and there were mixed fortunes for Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur with the former entering what looks a winnable Group and the latter hoping to sneak through to the Last 16.
Liverpool should be too good for a Sevilla team who have lost some of their edge since the end of last season, Spartak Moscow and Maribor. They avoided the fate of Tottenham Hotspur who face both Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund in the Group, although I do think Spurs may be able to surprise Dortmund and finish above them in a tight section.
The final team from England in the draw was Manchester City who enjoyed a draw that looks as good as the one rivals Manchester United earned. Napoli could cause problems, but Manchester City will be expected to beat them to top of the Group with Shakhtar Donetsk one of the weaker Pot 1 clubs they could have faced.
Brendan Rodgers looks to have a difficult task in achieving the goal he has set for Celtic when he mentioned he wanted European Football after Christmas. Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain should dominate the Group and it will come down to whether Celtic can beat out Anderlecht for the Europa League spot that will be on offer.
Those matches in the Champions League are set to begin in the next two and a half weeks and I am looking forward to hearing the famous anthem at Old Trafford again. The Europa League draw will be made on Friday but I have this post ready to go before Arsenal and Everton find out their fate for the coming months ahead.
Both Arsenal and Everton should receive favourable draws to at least reach the Last 32, although Arsene Wenger has been less positive about the tournament than Ronald Koeman. That may change if Arsenal struggle domestically, but I wouldn't be surprised if much changed teams take to the field for the Europa League games to keep the starters ready for the Premier League.
The football picks from this weekend are coming from the Premier League fixtures with a single pick also from the Spanish top flight. Last weekend was a very difficult one, but hopefully I can end August with a flourish after a mixed start.
Bournemouth v Manchester City Pick: There was some decent football being played by Manchester City on Monday night, but I am not convinced the 3-5-2 system being favoured by Pep Guardiola is going to get the best out of the players he has. Leroy Sane being employed as a left wing back was a mistake which cost Manchester City as it was his error that set Everton off for their goal on Monday evening.
With Kyle Walker suspended, Manchester City may decide to play a back four on Saturday as they look to bounce back to winning ways ahead of the international break. I said on the opening weekend that playing away from home may favour Manchester City more with the extra space they tend to be afforded and that is certainly the case when they come up against Bournemouth.
Eddie Howe has to be credited for sticking to his principles, but Bournemouth can be a side that the top teams find ‘easy’ to play against. I don’t think it is a big surprise they lost to half of the teams that finished above them at the Vitality Stadium and in another game Bournemouth trailed Liverpool 1-3 before fighting back for a 4-3 win.
Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United all scored at least three times here in League games last season and both Manchester clubs as well as Chelsea won by a couple of goals.
The poor start made by Bournemouth will have shaken some of the confidence and I do think Manchester City are good enough to take advantage. They will have the majority of the play and I anticipate Manchester City will create enough chances in the final third to ultimately win this one fairly comfortably to open the Premier League weekend.
Under Guardiola Manchester City have played 20 away Premier League games and won half of those by at least a two goal margin. I expect Bournemouth will cause some problems, but the space they will likely afford Manchester City can see the latter win here for the third season in a row and by at least a two goal margin for the third year in a row.
Huddersfield Town v Southampton Pick: Things could not have gone better for David Wagner and his newly promoted Huddersfield Town side in the opening month of the new season. Putting another win on the board on Saturday would mean Huddersfield Town are almost a quarter of the way to the 40 point mark which has to be the aim for the club in their bid to avoid relegation.
Being able to get three wins on the board in the opening month of the season would be huge for Huddersfield Town to build confidence. We have seen how important it is to put the points in the bank as early as possible and Huddersfield Town look settled.
It should be said that they are going to face more challenging opponents than the likes of Crystal Palace and Newcastle United the rest of the way. Even though Southampton are learning new methods of Mauricio Pellegrino, this is an established Premier League side who will be looking for a top half finish.
With that in mind, this is the biggest test so far for Huddersfield Town and it will be interesting to see how they do going forward. The Saints have a decent defence, even if they haven’t shown that this past week, but goals continue to be a problem for them.
Now they have to unlock a hard working Huddersfield Town team who will press from the front and then tighten the space at the back to make life as difficult as possible for their opponents. The pressure at the front is designed to create mistakes, but Southampton are an experienced team and I think this is going to be a tight match.
Southampton away games tended to feature plenty of goals last season, but generally this is a team that will try and make themselves difficult to beat. The lack of goals to open the season has to be a concern and Huddersfield Town won’t make things easy for their visitors.
On the other hand I do think Huddersfield Town still need to improve in the final third to build on their opening two League wins and this is one of the tougher defences in the League. Putting those factors together I think there may not be a lot of goals shared out on Saturday and I will back fewer than three goals to be produced from this fixture.
Newcastle United v West Ham United Pick: Two managers who are under pressure and two teams who are searching for their first Premier League points of the 2017/18 season will meet on Saturday in a big game at St James’ Park. It is perhaps ironic that Rafael Benitez, the current Newcastle United manager, is also the favourite to take over at West Ham United if they dispense with Slaven Bilic.
That means a win for Newcastle United could mean they lose their manager to West Ham United who would perhaps decide to move on from Bilic. On the other hand a win for The Hammers might see Benitez walk away from a job where he clearly feels the current squad is not good enough to avoid the drop back into the Championship.
It is going to be a tough environment to play in on Saturday after Newcastle United were beaten by Nottingham Forest in the League Cup. The fans have big demands for their club and while they have not turned on the manager, Benitez has to be questioned for giving the current squad so little confidence.
There is only so many times players can be told they are not good enough for this level before they either down tools or struggle to cope mentally knowing a mistake will be highlighted.
That lack of confidence makes Newcastle United a dangerous favourite in this fixture and the West Ham United win over Cheltenham Town will help ease some pressure on Slaven Bilic. The loss at Southampton last weekend came after West Ham United showed plenty of character with ten men and the returns of Manuel Lanzini and Andy Carroll would provide a huge boost.
Despite losing their opening 2 away games in the Premier League, West Ham United have proved to be one of the better away teams in this Division over the last couple of years. They have been very good when playing those teams in the bottom half and West Ham United showed enough last week to think they can get something here.
Newcastle United have won their last 2 home games against West Ham United, but this is a squad that looks short of quality. They will pose problems for a defence that has conceded 7 goals in 2 away League games, but West Ham United have shown they have goals in the side and the boost of having Lanzini and Carroll could see them upset Newcastle United.
I will take the start on the Asian Handicap with the East London club on Saturday.
Watford v Brighton Pick: The international break is coming up after this round of games in the Premier League and it is an important one for all those teams searching for their first points of the season. Brighton are one of those teams and a newly promoted side could lose some heart the longer they have to wait to get off the mark in the top flight.
Chris Hughton has experience managing at this level and Brighton are surely going to give the manager time to get things right. The fixtures at the start of the season could have been kinder for Brighton, but they have to show more intent in the final third.
They are facing a Watford team who have defensive injuries and suspensions to deal with this weekend. That may give Brighton a chance to earn a surprising win here although Marco Silva has shown he can get the best out limited squads in his time with Hull City.
Silva helped them become a very strong home team and I think he will make Watford a very difficult place to come and play. Liverpool found that out on the opening day and there is enough quality in the final third to paper over the defensive problems in this game.
Watford may have been beaten by Bristol City here in the League Cup, but they were very impressive last week in a win over Bournemouth. The defeat in the League Cup came with a much changed starting eleven and won’t overly concern Silva, and a similar level of performance to last weekend should put Watford in a strong position to win this match.
There does seem to be a more attacking threat in the Watford ranks at the moment and I expect that to help The Hornets earn another three points in a strong start to their Premier League season.
Brighton will work hard and try and make life difficult for the home team, but I do think Watford may have a little too much for them. A lack of bite in the final third has to be rectified going forward, but we may not see that happen until after the international break and I will back Watford to win their first home game of the season.
Manchester United v Leicester City Pick: One of the most positive early season performances from Manchester United last season was the 4-1 hammering of Leicester City at Old Trafford. In fact that may have been one of the best performances at Old Trafford throughout the campaign and fans may be expectant on Saturday to at least match the number of goals scored having seen Manchester United score four in each of their first couple of Premier League games.
Add in the fact that Leicester City conceded four times in a 4-3 loss at Arsenal and goals look to be on the cards.
However it may not all be one way traffic with Leicester City continuing to play at a decent level under Craig Shakespeare. They have gone back to the direct style that took them to the Premier League title two years ago and the players look much happier than they were six months ago.
Goals haven’t been a problem for Leicester City this season with at least two produced in every game they have played. This is a different test considering how Manchester United have defended so far, but I think it could be the most difficult game Manchester United have played so far.
With the pace of Jamie Vardy up front, Leicester City will hope to turn Manchester United around on the counter, but containing them will be a tough task all the same. Manchester United have played with a confidence that wasn’t always evident last season and I do feel like the team as a whole is in a much better place than even at the end of last season when they won the Europa League.
I would expect Leicester City to pose a lot more questions than either West Ham United or Swansea City managed in Manchester United’s first two games. They may even score, but Leicester City have still got a few questions to answer defensively with key players perhaps not at full health.
Manchester United in the mood they have been in should be able to take advantage as Arsenal did and Old Trafford could see another ‘comfortable’ win as I look for Manchester United to cover the Asian Handicap here.
Chelsea v Everton Pick: This has the feeling of being another Premier League game where both sides will have their opportunities to earn the vital three points. While Chelsea will be feeling a lot better after winning at Wembley Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur, Everton have drawn back to back away games 1-1 this week and shown they can be defensively organised against opponents.
They have still to prove they can handle the better teams consistently after earning a 1-1 draw at Manchester City on Monday night. A third away game in a short space of time is difficult though and it will be interesting to see how the players respond.
Everton didn't play well against Chelsea last season with heavy defeats suffered both home and away. They are facing a team that are without Eden Hazard and Diego Costa, but Cesc Fabregas is back from suspension and The Blues looked very comfortable last weekend despite the injuries.
Chelsea will be a threat going forward, but I still think they are a little short defensively with the injuries and lack of depth an issue. There is the chance Everton can earn something on the counter attack, but they may need to ride their luck like they did at the Etihad Stadium on Monday night.
Ronald Koeman's men showed they can be effective on the counter, but Chelsea should create some chances of their own. Everton games have not featured a lot of goals in the 2017/18 season but the last two games between these teams at Stamford Bridge have featured at least three goals shared out.
The new signings made by Everton gives them a better squad depth and they will be tough to beat over the course of the season. However this match is coming at a time of the season where Everton have had three tough away games in the space of seven days and I think that may contribute to a Chelsea win.
Chelsea have won 5 of their last 6 home games against Everton and could take advantage of any early season fatigue that could have built up over the last seven days. I will back Chelsea on the Asian Handicap in this one.
West Brom v Stoke City Pick: Both West Brom and Stoke City have surprised early in the new Premier League season and both will head into the opening live game of Sunday with some confidence and momentum. While The Baggies have won 3 in a row, Stoke City have bounced back from an opening weekend defeat to beat Arsenal and Rochdale at the Bet365 Stadium.
Playing away from home is a different test for Stoke City though and they have lost 4 of their last 6 away Premier League games going back to last season. They are also facing a West Brom team who played very well at The Hawthorns last season up until they were past the 40 point mark in the League.
While that did mean a disappointing end to the season, the players have shown they can pick themselves up and go again with the performances early in this season.
Defensively they look sounder than Stoke City have and West Brom do have the quality from set pieces to cause problems for their visitors.
This is unlikely to be the prettiest of games, but Tony Pulis has found a way to get past his former club since moving on to Crystal Palace and West Brom. The Baggies have won 4 of 5 games against Stoke City since Pulis took over as manager and that includes 3 wins in a row at home.
Pulis also guided Crystal Palace to a home win over Stoke City in his short time with The Eagles and I think West Brom are playing well enough to keep the trend going. Stoke City had to ride their luck at times against Arsenal before securing the win and they will likely need to do the same here.
I can’t imagine this being the most entertaining game, but it should be a fascinating tactical battle. Tony Pulis has shown he can win those against his former club and I will back West Brom to make it four wins from four in August as they go into the international break with real confidence.
Liverpool v Arsenal Pick: The first game on Sunday may not be the most appealing for the neutrals, but the last live Premier League game before the international break should be a cracker.
Both Liverpool and Arsenal may be in the news because of two players who want to leave each club respectively, but the managers are trying to focus on what is happening on the field.
To that end Liverpool have been more successful with 3 wins from 4 games in August and remaining unbeaten. On the other hand, Arsenal are coming in following a loss at Stoke City and the reminder they are not playing in the Champions League with the Group Stage draw being made on Thursday.
There is enough attacking talent in the Arsenal squad to feel they can give Liverpool some trouble when they do have the ball, and the return of Laurent Koscielny will bolster Arsenal’s defences. However they will have to be a lot better than they have been in the opening two weeks of the season against a Liverpool team who can be rampant at Anfield and who have played well against the top Premier League clubs over the last twelve months.
Liverpool did win 7 of their 12 League games against the top seven last season and they were unbeaten in all of those. They won 4 of 6 at Anfield and did the League double over an Arsenal side who lost 5 of 6 at the top seven last season.
Even without Philippe Coutinho and with Alexis Sanchez potentially returning for Arsenal, I still lean towards Liverpool to use their August momentum for the victory. Goals also shouldn’t be in short supply with both teams looking much better going forward than they have looked defensively and even the returning Koscielny may not be enough for The Gunners to show vast improvement.
The last 4 at Anfield between these clubs have seen Liverpool unbeaten with at least three goals shared out each time. While I do think Liverpool win this game, and they are a decent price to do that, goals are likely to arrive in the fixture too.
The layers aren’t giving away anything when it comes to at least three goals shared out. But I do think backing Liverpool to win a high-scoring game at an attractive price is more tempting than simply backing Liverpool to win the game.
The bigger price is appealing as I simply don’t imagine this game finishing without at least three goals and that is the way I will go this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley Pick: This feels like a really big game for Tottenham Hotspur as they look to prove that the move to Wembley Stadium for one season is not going to be one that affects their League performances. While there will be a factor of not playing at White Hart Lane, no one in the Tottenham Hotspur dressing room will be thinking about a ‘Wembley Curse’.
Tottenham Hotspur have lost 4 of 6 games at the National Stadium in the last twelve months, but those losses have come against Monaco, Bayer Leverkusen and Chelsea twice. Better finishing last week and Tottenham Hotspur may have earned a result against Chelsea, but that list of losses also shows Tottenham Hotspur will face ‘easier’ tests than the ones they have failed to overcome.
They did beat CSKA Moscow 3-1 here in the Champions League before a 2-2 draw with Gent, but factors have been in play in the games Tottenham Hotspur have lost. They were better than Leverkusen and against Chelsea in the FA Cup Semi Final, while Tottenham Hotspur were down to ten men against Gent.
These are factors that should eventually turn in their favour and I think Tottenham Hotspur will begin that this weekend. The space at Wembley Stadium may make it difficult for Burnley to defend in the numbers they would like to in these games and this is a team that struggled when facing the best teams on their travels last season.
Burnley’s win at Chelsea came down to the home team losing a couple of players and some stunning finishes. This is not something Burnley can rely on in every away game they play and I think Tottenham Hotspur get the better of them.
Sean Dyche’s team work hard and they are rarely beaten comfortably. Only 6 of their 14 away losses last season came by more than a single goal margin, but I think Tottenham Hotspur may be due a really big performance at Wembley to put talk of a ‘curse’ to rest.
More than half of Tottenham Hotspur’s home wins in the League came by more than a single goal margin and I think they will be too strong on Sunday. With the talent in the final third, Tottenham Hotspur can wear down Burnley with the additional space in this Stadium and I will look for Spurs to cover the Asian Handicap.
Alaves v Barcelona Pick: There seems like there is plenty of upheaval at Barcelona at the moment and it feels the players are not as happy as they once were at the club. Neymar's departure has highlighted that and the players look to be backing their former teammate when it comes to the legal situation developing after Barcelona moved to sue the Brazilian for breaching his contract.
This does not make for good reading going into the new season and Barcelona's failure to prise Philippe Coutinho away from Liverpool won't have helped so far. The club just doesn't feel as strong as they did twelve months ago and Barcelona look to have fallen behind Real Madrid both at home and in Europe.
While that is the case, Barcelona still look the second best club in Spain and they still have Lionel Messi which makes them a dangerous opponent on their day. They are facing an Alaves team this weekend who have lost a successful manager this summer and who have been seeing a lot of players both come and go from the club.
That may mean it will take time for Alaves to gel together after overachieving in the 2016/17 season and they were beaten comfortably by Barcelona in their last couple of games last season. Barcelona might be missing key players in Andres Iniesta and Luis Suarez, but there is enough talent here to get the job done and I do think Barcelona win here.
They have managed that 3 times in a row at Alaves and last season Barcelona were 0-6 winners here. I would be stunned if they win by that many again, but I do think they can cover the Asian Handicap in a victory here and I am going to back the Catalan giants to do that.
MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet365 (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Southampton Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
West Ham United + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom @ 2.45 William Hill (2 Units)
Liverpool to Win & Over 2.5 Total Goals @ 2.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
August Update: 25-29, - 6.97 Units (88 Units Staked, - 7.92% Yield)
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Showing posts with label La Liga Picks. Show all posts
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Friday, 25 August 2017
Friday, 18 August 2017
Weekend Football Picks 2017 (August 19-21)
The second week of the new Premier League season begins on Saturday lunchtime and will be played through to Monday night.
This week is a big one with the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage draws being made on Thursday and Friday respectively and then we get into the final round of domestic League matches before the two international break as the World Cup Qualifiers reach the business end throughout the world.
I hate that international break so soon into the new season, and teams could be trying to gel new faces that have been signed before the transfer window closed. After the long wait for football it feels like we should be allowed to really get our teeth into the new season before having another break, but it does mean the matches will be coming thick and fast in September.
This weekend also sees the beginning of domestic football in the other major European Leagues with Germany, Italy and Spain all getting underway.
It should mean a fun weekend with some top matches to come as we get to see all the top teams in action.
Before we get onto the picks, I will mention the short piece written about Manchester United before the season started. You can read that here and the weekend picks follow below.
Swansea City v Manchester United Pick: You don't want to read too much into the opening weekend of a new Premier League season when results can be a little funny as some teams will naturally be further along with their preparation than others. However Swansea City are going to need to be a lot better than they were last weekend if they are going to contain this Manchester United side.
The goalless draw at Southampton may be seen in a positive for the simple fact that Paul Clement's men earned a point from the game. However Southampton had enough chances to win two games of football and only a lack of composure in front of goal prevented them doing that.
Not many will accuse Manchester United of a lack of composure after ripping apart West Ham United at Old Trafford last Sunday. No one will be patting themselves on the back though and Jose Mourinho will know there is room for improvement which I expect Manchester United to make the more the team gels together in the months ahead.
The goals scored by Romelu Lukaku will give him plenty of confidence though and the likes of Anthony Martial and Paul Pogba adding goals will be encouraging to Manchester United too. The attacking players at the Liberty Stadium should be encouraged if Swansea City defend as poorly as they did at times at Southampton and I do worry for the home team unless they can make some significant transfer moves before the summer transfer window closes.
Swansea City lost Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton this week and Fernando Llorente is expected to miss out which takes away big attacking options for the home team. They didn't threaten Southampton enough and Manchester United have a strong defensive shape which should lay the foundation for success here.
The home team were beaten by 5 of the top 6 here last season and 4 of those losses have come by at least a couple of goals. 8 of Manchester United's 10 away Premier League wins came by that margin too and I will look for Jose Mourinho's men to make it two wins out of two on Saturday and in impressive fashion too.
Leicester City v Brighton Pick: The last two years have given Leicester City the kind of rollercoaster ride their fans could never have imagined. In fact no one in football would have picked Leicester City as Premier League Champions and then following that up with a run to the Champions League Quarter Final, the best any English club did in the Champions League last season.
Expectations are in a funny place going into the season but most would probably be looking for a top half finish and perhaps a strong run in one of the domestic Cup competitions. Leicester City will also hope to maintain the strong home form of the last couple of seasons which have seen them win 22 of 38 Premier League games here.
Last season Leicester City beat all but one of the teams that finished in the bottom half at the King Power Stadium and they will be confident they can get off the mark for the new season here. Of those 8 wins against teams in the bottom half, Leicester City were able to win 6 of them by at least a couple of goals as their home form proved critical to avoid any relegation concerns.
The Foxes will be hoping to continue the dominance of teams in the bottom half at home when they face Brighton this weekend as the newly promoted side are expected to be fighting to avoid relegation for much of the coming season. Brighton were given a lesson by Manchester City last weekend as to how tough life can be in the Premier League and now they have to head to Leicester City which has proved to be one of the stronger home teams in the Division over the last couple of years.
The layers seem to have recognised that with the price on offer for a Leicester City win, but I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap. A one goal win will offer a profit, but a win by a wider margin could provide solid profits and Leicester City showed last season they can beat the 'lesser' teams in the Premier League at home by comfortable margins.
The goals scored last week will give Leicester City more belief although they will feel they can handle Brighton's attack much better than they did against Arsenal. I will look for The Foxes to come through with a relatively comfortable win on the day and perhaps send Chris Hughton and Brighton searching for further squad members ahead of the transfer window closing.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: A big week is coming up for Liverpool with three games in a row at Anfield which can see them make a really positive start to the new Premier League season as well as earn them a place in the Champions League Group Stage. Jurgen Klopp would love to have complete focus on that, but the Philippe Coutinho situation looks likely to continue to dominate his press conferences despite the obvious irritation the German has towards that line of questioning.
At least Liverpool are coming into the weekend off a really positive win in Hoffenheim during the week to erase the memory of the 3-3 draw with Watford which saw Liverpool concede a late equaliser. The attacking performances in both fixtures will give the fans plenty to be excited about, but defensively Liverpool still look way short of the standards you would expect.
Set pieces have been a real bugbear for Klopp's Liverpool to deal with and Crystal Palace do have the size and quality to expose that vulnerable underbelly of the Liverpool defence. However Frank de Boer's new system is going to take some time for the players to be comfortable in and they showed that in their heavy loss to Huddersfield Town last weekend.
David Wagner is from the same school of thought as his 'best man' Klopp and I expect Liverpool to press from the front and look to exploit mistakes in the Crystal Palace passing game as Huddersfield Town did. With the added quality Liverpool have in the final third, I think there is every chance Liverpool can punish The Eagles as effectively as Huddersfield Town did and it could be a long day in the office for the visitors.
Losing Wilfried Zaha takes away a real counter attacking threat from Crystal Palace and I would be really surprised if they could make it four Premier League wins in a row at Anfield. Christian Benteke hurt his former club last season with two goals here, but he will need better all around service than last week and I think Liverpool will be too good on the day.
Even without Coutinho Liverpool have shown they can create chances and score goals and I expect them to do that here at Anfield. The home side can get this week off to a perfect start as Liverpool expose a Crystal Palace still getting settled into Frank de Boer's system and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Southampton v West Ham United Pick: There is plenty of room for improvement for both Southampton and West Ham United after their opening weekend performances in the Premier League. It will be Mauricio Pellegrino who is feeling better than Slaven Bilic going into the week, but there definitely feels like there was more expectation at West Ham United than Southampton.
Having to reverse fixtures due to the athletics at the London Stadium is not ideal for West Ham United even if they have been one of the better away sides in the Premier League over the last two seasons. After the thumping at Manchester United, Bilic may have wanted to get back home in front of their own supporters, but this is out of his hands now.
West Ham United do have a solid enough recent record at St Mary’s and you have to expect an all around better defensive performance than the one produced last Sunday. They will need that as I can’t see Southampton lacking as much composure in the final third as they did in their goalless draw with Swansea City.
It may have been a pretty easy day in the office for Southampton if their strikers had not left their shooting boots on a beach somewhere over the summer. In fact it has been longer than that as Southampton have now failed to score in 6 consecutive home Premier League games which makes it very hard to trust them here.
The odds on quote looks to be all about how the teams have been perceived to have performed last weekend with Southampton a little unfortunate and West Ham United outplayed. However the early weeks of a new season can see performances fluctuate wildly and these teams are perhaps more evenly matched than the layers think.
Southampton as an odds on favourite shouldn’t appeal with the struggles in front of goal, although they created enough chances to be respected. Defensively they have looked sound for the most part and a West Ham United side without Manuel Lanzini may not have the guile to break The Saints down, even without Virgil Van Dijk to call upon.
It feels like this is going to be a close match between these teams and one goal may be enough to decide with the current shyness in front of goal. Picking a winner doesn’t look straight forward but backing two or fewer goals to be shared out looks the call.
Before last season, 5 consecutive games between Southampton and West Ham United on the south coast ended with two or fewer goals and I will look for that trend to get going again on Saturday.
Stoke City v Arsenal Pick: You could almost hear the rustling of paper and cardboard being put away frantically when Arsenal took the lead against Leicester City late in the game last weekend. A vocal minority may have been ready to blast Arsene Wenger and the team when trailing 2-3, but there are more positives which come after a 4-3 opening weekend win.
That hasn’t stopped the layers putting the Arsenal price on the drift this weekend with the poor defending looking like it may play into the Stoke City hands. Set pieces proved to be a real achilles heel for the Arsenal defence last week and that is one area where you would think Stoke City will be able to cause plenty of panic.
Per Mertesacker’s likely availability will help Arsenal, but they have to defend better as a unit if they are going to avoid a defeat here. However if they can get the defending right from set pieces, visiting Stoke City isn’t as daunting as it once was and Arsenal could win here.
They did that very effectively at the end of last season with a 1-4 win here and Arsenal will feel they have the attacking threats to hurt Stoke City even without Alexis Sanchez. Last week they scored four goals from four different sources and Stoke City were massively outplayed by Everton while looking short of confidence.
Mark Hughes is likely to be active in the transfer window over the next couple of weeks, but this current Stoke City squad look short. The change in style means it has become easier to play here for the big clubs and Hughes has to be concerned that Stoke City didn’t beat any team at home that finished above them in the Premier League table.
In fact Stoke City had just 1 win overall against a team that finished higher in the League table and were beaten by the top 5 here at the Bet365 Stadium. They have usually caused plenty of problems for Arsenal but a weaker looking squad that may be short of confidence and only three months ago took a beating from The Gunners is perhaps ripe for the taking.
There is every chance this price drifts a little more to become even more attractive, but I will lock in Arsenal now and back them to win for a second season in a row at a venue they haven’t enjoyed too much.
Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United Pick: A lot of teams will struggle to beat Tottenham Hotspur this season, but Newcastle United fans have to be worried about the standard of the current squad at the club. After earning promotion last season, there was a hope that huge investment would be made but both Rafa Benitez and the fans have been disappointed.
Moves may be made before the end of the transfer window, but this current squad looks short of the standard required in the Premier League. It was the main reason I picked Newcastle United to be one of the sides relegated from the Premier League this season and there has to be a concern that confidence has been knocked ahead of this second game of the season.
The match with Huddersfield Town may be more to Newcastle United's liking when you think how well they played against Championship opposition for much of last season. They won here in the second half of the season which was a part of their best away record in the Division and Newcastle United will feel they can create chances against a Huddersfield Town that will push forward to score the goals to win games.
However Newcastle United have to remember Huddersfield Town had the energy to beat them at St James' Park twelve months ago and the high press worked wonders that day. David Wagner's tactics created errors in the Crystal Palace game which helped Huddersfield Town win comfortably and they will feel they can expose the injuries in the Newcastle United defence.
Jonjo Shelvey's ridiculously selfish sending off has shorn Newcastle United of some of their better quality players and you can see why the home team are favoured. However Newcastle United played well away from home against the top teams which included winning in Brighton and here and they showed they can create chances in those games.
I do expect a more positive approach from Newcastle United than the one they had last Sunday and I expect the players to be more comfortable against the level they face this week. I also think Huddersfield Town will be very positive in the tactics that David Wagner will send his team out with and this could make this a more exciting game than the layers are anticipating.
Both League games between the two teams featured at least three goals last season and I will look for a positive approach from both teams to see that outcome reached at a big price this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: When the fixture list came out in June this was obviously the biggest game in the Premier League in the second week of the new season. Unsurprisingly it was quickly snapped up for television coverage, although Chelsea do come in with more problems than most would envision for the defending Champions.
Injury and suspension have shorn Chelsea of some of their key players, while Diego Costa has been ostracised and decided he won’t even return to the training ground. Selling off players like Nemanja Matic have upset Antonio Conte who has been desperate in calling for reinforcements before the transfer window closes.
All in all this has made Chelsea look vulnerable and the 2-3 home defeat to Burnley would have been another shock to the system.
The question is are Chelsea on the brink of imploding as they did in Jose Mourinho’s final season two years ago, or can Conte right the ship?
I think the latter will eventually occur once some of these early season injuries and suspensions clear up, and I do expect Chelsea to be active in the transfer market in the next two weeks. However this fixture may come a little too soon for The Blues and I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to take advantage.
Tottenham Hotspur were not at their fluid best at Newcastle United last weekend until Jonjo Shelvey saw the red mist descend, but you can’t worry too much about performances in the early stages of a season. They have the more settled starting line up who will be familiar with the jobs expected of them and I think that makes more of a difference than anything else this weekend.
Obviously playing at Wembley Stadium rather than White Hart Lane changes some of the dynamics of the fixture, but this may be the best way for the players to believe in their new ‘home’ by winning their opening League fixture here.
I don’t want to read too much into Chelsea’s loss to Burnley when everything seemed to conspire against them. However losing Gary Cahill and Cesc Fabregas to suspension is a big blow for Antonio Conte and I think some unfamiliarity with the new partnerships at the heart of the defence and midfield goes against them.
I do think Chelsea have a reaction, but Tottenham Hotspur look the more settled squad and I will look for them to win this fixture at odds against.
Manchester City v Everton Pick: Last weekend we opened the Premier League season with the first Friday Night Football of the season and this weekend we have the first Monday Night Football. It looks a good game on paper and one that will perhaps show what we are going to come to expect from Manchester City and a new look Everton team during the course of the season.
There has been a lot of talk about the improvement Everton have made, but I will be honest and say I would be surprised if they finished in the top six. It would need one of those clubs to really have a poor season, like Chelsea did two years ago, for that to happen and I don’t believe this Everton starting eleven is better than the one they had back in May.
Gylfi Sigurdsson is a good purchase, but I struggle to see him getting into the first eleven of any of the teams that finished above Everton last season.
With that in mind I think Everton may have to settle for a decent Cup run or two and another 7th placed finish in the Premier League. I think that could be highlighted here against a Manchester City team who look strong and with options for Pep Guardiola which is going to make it tough to contain them for the full ninety minutes.
Manchester City won’t have a cakewalk to the Premier League title, because no team really achieves that, but I think they will be much improved from last season if everyone remains fit and healthy.
The big failure for Manchester City last season was the fact they beat only 1 of the top 8 clubs at the Etihad Stadium. However the performances in those games does bode well for them and a little better composure in front of goal and things would have looked a lot brighter for them. Keeping Vincent Kompany fit is huge for them but I do expect better from Manchester City in the big games this time around.
Everton were beaten at 6 of the top 9 clubs last season and half of those losses came by at least two goals. They are an organised team under Koeman which can make Everton tough to beat, but I am expecting the Manchester City pressure to pay off in this one and the home team can wear down their visitors.
I am expecting Manchester City to massively improve the home scoring this time around and I will look for them to beat Everton by a couple of goals in this one.
Bristol City v Millwall Pick: The Championship is already proving how highly competitive it is going to be this season and I have struggled to find any picks I am confident about from the fourth round of fixtures this weekend.
At this stage a watching brief can be the best way forward as teams continue to find new faces to bring in with the transfer window still a couple of weeks away.
The one pick that did stand out comes from Ashton Gate where Bristol City will host Millwall in what feels like could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Both Lee Johnson and Neil Harris like to see their teams go forward in search of goals and so far both Bristol City and Millwall have responded.
However neither has looked completely sure of themselves at the back and that should mean chances are created throughout this match. Millwall’s lack of composure against Nottingham Forest in their one away game this season is a concern with some gilt-edged chances missed in that one, but they have since scored 6 goals in 3 home games.
Bristol City have managed at least two goals in 3 of their 4 games this season, but have also only kept a single clean sheet.
With both teams likely circling this kind of fixture as one they ‘can win’, I will look for an exciting, attacking game to develop and at least three goals shared out between them.
Girona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The opening games in every League around Europe can be difficult for every club with the fitness issues meaning the differences in quality between clubs might not always show up.
We do get surprise results and you have to be wary of those, but I do think Atletico Madrid will be too good for the new boys Girona especially having kept Diego Simeone and Antoine Griezmann around.
The transfer ban is a problem in terms of Atletico being able to get closer to Real Madrid and Barcelona domestically, but they still look to be the third best team in Spain.
I expect their continuity will help early in the season and I do think Atletico Madrid will have a little too much experience for Girona to deal with. Girona have worked wonders to make their debut season in the Primera Division and being linked with Manchester City may mean some key players arrive before the transfer window closes to aid them in staying in this Division.
That has to be the only goal for Girona this season, but they are not coming up with a lot of momentum having struggled down the stretch in the Segunda Division. Some of that may have been down to feeling the pressure of earning promotion, but I do wonder if they will be able to compete with the higher level of the Primera Division.
Facing a side who pride themselves on being defensively organised will be a challenge for Girona and Atletico Madrid have had 21 clean sheets in their last 38 away League games.
I expect they can get another one here and I will look for Atletico Madrid to open their season with a narrow win. That should be based on a clean sheet too and I will back Atletico at odds against to win with one of those in the pocket.
Deportivo v Real Madrid Pick: The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo didn’t bother Real Madrid as they brushed Barcelona aside for the second time in a number of days in the Spanish Super Cup. A team who has won four trophies in their last five games has to be full of confidence even without their talisman and Real Madrid are strong favourites to get their season off to a positive start in the Primera Division.
It’s hard to see Deportivo really being able to stay with Real Madrid even if they did beat Barcelona here last season. This is a team who have generally been struggling since returning to the top flight and I am not sure this season is going to be much different for them.
Deportivo were able to raise their game against the top clubs last season, but they have not been able to compete with Real Madrid who bring plenty of firepower to the table.
That feels like being the difference again even if the layers are not so sure without Ronaldo playing. I still think Real Madrid have enough talent to win here by a couple of goals for the fourth season in a row since Deportivo returned to the top flight.
Real Madrid have had competitive matches under their belt which should mean they are to ready to come out of the traps in the Primera Division and they may catch Deportivo out here. The chances Real Madrid create should ensure they have every chance of covering the Asian Handicap on the opening weekend of the season and I will back the current Spanish and European Champions to do that.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bristol City-Millwall Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
August 2017/18 Update: 14-14-2, + 0.92 Units (42 Units Staked, + 2.19% Yield)
This week is a big one with the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage draws being made on Thursday and Friday respectively and then we get into the final round of domestic League matches before the two international break as the World Cup Qualifiers reach the business end throughout the world.
I hate that international break so soon into the new season, and teams could be trying to gel new faces that have been signed before the transfer window closed. After the long wait for football it feels like we should be allowed to really get our teeth into the new season before having another break, but it does mean the matches will be coming thick and fast in September.
This weekend also sees the beginning of domestic football in the other major European Leagues with Germany, Italy and Spain all getting underway.
It should mean a fun weekend with some top matches to come as we get to see all the top teams in action.
Before we get onto the picks, I will mention the short piece written about Manchester United before the season started. You can read that here and the weekend picks follow below.
Swansea City v Manchester United Pick: You don't want to read too much into the opening weekend of a new Premier League season when results can be a little funny as some teams will naturally be further along with their preparation than others. However Swansea City are going to need to be a lot better than they were last weekend if they are going to contain this Manchester United side.
The goalless draw at Southampton may be seen in a positive for the simple fact that Paul Clement's men earned a point from the game. However Southampton had enough chances to win two games of football and only a lack of composure in front of goal prevented them doing that.
Not many will accuse Manchester United of a lack of composure after ripping apart West Ham United at Old Trafford last Sunday. No one will be patting themselves on the back though and Jose Mourinho will know there is room for improvement which I expect Manchester United to make the more the team gels together in the months ahead.
The goals scored by Romelu Lukaku will give him plenty of confidence though and the likes of Anthony Martial and Paul Pogba adding goals will be encouraging to Manchester United too. The attacking players at the Liberty Stadium should be encouraged if Swansea City defend as poorly as they did at times at Southampton and I do worry for the home team unless they can make some significant transfer moves before the summer transfer window closes.
Swansea City lost Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton this week and Fernando Llorente is expected to miss out which takes away big attacking options for the home team. They didn't threaten Southampton enough and Manchester United have a strong defensive shape which should lay the foundation for success here.
The home team were beaten by 5 of the top 6 here last season and 4 of those losses have come by at least a couple of goals. 8 of Manchester United's 10 away Premier League wins came by that margin too and I will look for Jose Mourinho's men to make it two wins out of two on Saturday and in impressive fashion too.
Leicester City v Brighton Pick: The last two years have given Leicester City the kind of rollercoaster ride their fans could never have imagined. In fact no one in football would have picked Leicester City as Premier League Champions and then following that up with a run to the Champions League Quarter Final, the best any English club did in the Champions League last season.
Expectations are in a funny place going into the season but most would probably be looking for a top half finish and perhaps a strong run in one of the domestic Cup competitions. Leicester City will also hope to maintain the strong home form of the last couple of seasons which have seen them win 22 of 38 Premier League games here.
Last season Leicester City beat all but one of the teams that finished in the bottom half at the King Power Stadium and they will be confident they can get off the mark for the new season here. Of those 8 wins against teams in the bottom half, Leicester City were able to win 6 of them by at least a couple of goals as their home form proved critical to avoid any relegation concerns.
The Foxes will be hoping to continue the dominance of teams in the bottom half at home when they face Brighton this weekend as the newly promoted side are expected to be fighting to avoid relegation for much of the coming season. Brighton were given a lesson by Manchester City last weekend as to how tough life can be in the Premier League and now they have to head to Leicester City which has proved to be one of the stronger home teams in the Division over the last couple of years.
The layers seem to have recognised that with the price on offer for a Leicester City win, but I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap. A one goal win will offer a profit, but a win by a wider margin could provide solid profits and Leicester City showed last season they can beat the 'lesser' teams in the Premier League at home by comfortable margins.
The goals scored last week will give Leicester City more belief although they will feel they can handle Brighton's attack much better than they did against Arsenal. I will look for The Foxes to come through with a relatively comfortable win on the day and perhaps send Chris Hughton and Brighton searching for further squad members ahead of the transfer window closing.
Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: A big week is coming up for Liverpool with three games in a row at Anfield which can see them make a really positive start to the new Premier League season as well as earn them a place in the Champions League Group Stage. Jurgen Klopp would love to have complete focus on that, but the Philippe Coutinho situation looks likely to continue to dominate his press conferences despite the obvious irritation the German has towards that line of questioning.
At least Liverpool are coming into the weekend off a really positive win in Hoffenheim during the week to erase the memory of the 3-3 draw with Watford which saw Liverpool concede a late equaliser. The attacking performances in both fixtures will give the fans plenty to be excited about, but defensively Liverpool still look way short of the standards you would expect.
Set pieces have been a real bugbear for Klopp's Liverpool to deal with and Crystal Palace do have the size and quality to expose that vulnerable underbelly of the Liverpool defence. However Frank de Boer's new system is going to take some time for the players to be comfortable in and they showed that in their heavy loss to Huddersfield Town last weekend.
David Wagner is from the same school of thought as his 'best man' Klopp and I expect Liverpool to press from the front and look to exploit mistakes in the Crystal Palace passing game as Huddersfield Town did. With the added quality Liverpool have in the final third, I think there is every chance Liverpool can punish The Eagles as effectively as Huddersfield Town did and it could be a long day in the office for the visitors.
Losing Wilfried Zaha takes away a real counter attacking threat from Crystal Palace and I would be really surprised if they could make it four Premier League wins in a row at Anfield. Christian Benteke hurt his former club last season with two goals here, but he will need better all around service than last week and I think Liverpool will be too good on the day.
Even without Coutinho Liverpool have shown they can create chances and score goals and I expect them to do that here at Anfield. The home side can get this week off to a perfect start as Liverpool expose a Crystal Palace still getting settled into Frank de Boer's system and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.
Southampton v West Ham United Pick: There is plenty of room for improvement for both Southampton and West Ham United after their opening weekend performances in the Premier League. It will be Mauricio Pellegrino who is feeling better than Slaven Bilic going into the week, but there definitely feels like there was more expectation at West Ham United than Southampton.
Having to reverse fixtures due to the athletics at the London Stadium is not ideal for West Ham United even if they have been one of the better away sides in the Premier League over the last two seasons. After the thumping at Manchester United, Bilic may have wanted to get back home in front of their own supporters, but this is out of his hands now.
West Ham United do have a solid enough recent record at St Mary’s and you have to expect an all around better defensive performance than the one produced last Sunday. They will need that as I can’t see Southampton lacking as much composure in the final third as they did in their goalless draw with Swansea City.
It may have been a pretty easy day in the office for Southampton if their strikers had not left their shooting boots on a beach somewhere over the summer. In fact it has been longer than that as Southampton have now failed to score in 6 consecutive home Premier League games which makes it very hard to trust them here.
The odds on quote looks to be all about how the teams have been perceived to have performed last weekend with Southampton a little unfortunate and West Ham United outplayed. However the early weeks of a new season can see performances fluctuate wildly and these teams are perhaps more evenly matched than the layers think.
Southampton as an odds on favourite shouldn’t appeal with the struggles in front of goal, although they created enough chances to be respected. Defensively they have looked sound for the most part and a West Ham United side without Manuel Lanzini may not have the guile to break The Saints down, even without Virgil Van Dijk to call upon.
It feels like this is going to be a close match between these teams and one goal may be enough to decide with the current shyness in front of goal. Picking a winner doesn’t look straight forward but backing two or fewer goals to be shared out looks the call.
Before last season, 5 consecutive games between Southampton and West Ham United on the south coast ended with two or fewer goals and I will look for that trend to get going again on Saturday.
Stoke City v Arsenal Pick: You could almost hear the rustling of paper and cardboard being put away frantically when Arsenal took the lead against Leicester City late in the game last weekend. A vocal minority may have been ready to blast Arsene Wenger and the team when trailing 2-3, but there are more positives which come after a 4-3 opening weekend win.
That hasn’t stopped the layers putting the Arsenal price on the drift this weekend with the poor defending looking like it may play into the Stoke City hands. Set pieces proved to be a real achilles heel for the Arsenal defence last week and that is one area where you would think Stoke City will be able to cause plenty of panic.
Per Mertesacker’s likely availability will help Arsenal, but they have to defend better as a unit if they are going to avoid a defeat here. However if they can get the defending right from set pieces, visiting Stoke City isn’t as daunting as it once was and Arsenal could win here.
They did that very effectively at the end of last season with a 1-4 win here and Arsenal will feel they have the attacking threats to hurt Stoke City even without Alexis Sanchez. Last week they scored four goals from four different sources and Stoke City were massively outplayed by Everton while looking short of confidence.
Mark Hughes is likely to be active in the transfer window over the next couple of weeks, but this current Stoke City squad look short. The change in style means it has become easier to play here for the big clubs and Hughes has to be concerned that Stoke City didn’t beat any team at home that finished above them in the Premier League table.
In fact Stoke City had just 1 win overall against a team that finished higher in the League table and were beaten by the top 5 here at the Bet365 Stadium. They have usually caused plenty of problems for Arsenal but a weaker looking squad that may be short of confidence and only three months ago took a beating from The Gunners is perhaps ripe for the taking.
There is every chance this price drifts a little more to become even more attractive, but I will lock in Arsenal now and back them to win for a second season in a row at a venue they haven’t enjoyed too much.
Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United Pick: A lot of teams will struggle to beat Tottenham Hotspur this season, but Newcastle United fans have to be worried about the standard of the current squad at the club. After earning promotion last season, there was a hope that huge investment would be made but both Rafa Benitez and the fans have been disappointed.
Moves may be made before the end of the transfer window, but this current squad looks short of the standard required in the Premier League. It was the main reason I picked Newcastle United to be one of the sides relegated from the Premier League this season and there has to be a concern that confidence has been knocked ahead of this second game of the season.
The match with Huddersfield Town may be more to Newcastle United's liking when you think how well they played against Championship opposition for much of last season. They won here in the second half of the season which was a part of their best away record in the Division and Newcastle United will feel they can create chances against a Huddersfield Town that will push forward to score the goals to win games.
However Newcastle United have to remember Huddersfield Town had the energy to beat them at St James' Park twelve months ago and the high press worked wonders that day. David Wagner's tactics created errors in the Crystal Palace game which helped Huddersfield Town win comfortably and they will feel they can expose the injuries in the Newcastle United defence.
Jonjo Shelvey's ridiculously selfish sending off has shorn Newcastle United of some of their better quality players and you can see why the home team are favoured. However Newcastle United played well away from home against the top teams which included winning in Brighton and here and they showed they can create chances in those games.
I do expect a more positive approach from Newcastle United than the one they had last Sunday and I expect the players to be more comfortable against the level they face this week. I also think Huddersfield Town will be very positive in the tactics that David Wagner will send his team out with and this could make this a more exciting game than the layers are anticipating.
Both League games between the two teams featured at least three goals last season and I will look for a positive approach from both teams to see that outcome reached at a big price this weekend.
Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: When the fixture list came out in June this was obviously the biggest game in the Premier League in the second week of the new season. Unsurprisingly it was quickly snapped up for television coverage, although Chelsea do come in with more problems than most would envision for the defending Champions.
Injury and suspension have shorn Chelsea of some of their key players, while Diego Costa has been ostracised and decided he won’t even return to the training ground. Selling off players like Nemanja Matic have upset Antonio Conte who has been desperate in calling for reinforcements before the transfer window closes.
All in all this has made Chelsea look vulnerable and the 2-3 home defeat to Burnley would have been another shock to the system.
The question is are Chelsea on the brink of imploding as they did in Jose Mourinho’s final season two years ago, or can Conte right the ship?
I think the latter will eventually occur once some of these early season injuries and suspensions clear up, and I do expect Chelsea to be active in the transfer market in the next two weeks. However this fixture may come a little too soon for The Blues and I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to take advantage.
Tottenham Hotspur were not at their fluid best at Newcastle United last weekend until Jonjo Shelvey saw the red mist descend, but you can’t worry too much about performances in the early stages of a season. They have the more settled starting line up who will be familiar with the jobs expected of them and I think that makes more of a difference than anything else this weekend.
Obviously playing at Wembley Stadium rather than White Hart Lane changes some of the dynamics of the fixture, but this may be the best way for the players to believe in their new ‘home’ by winning their opening League fixture here.
I don’t want to read too much into Chelsea’s loss to Burnley when everything seemed to conspire against them. However losing Gary Cahill and Cesc Fabregas to suspension is a big blow for Antonio Conte and I think some unfamiliarity with the new partnerships at the heart of the defence and midfield goes against them.
I do think Chelsea have a reaction, but Tottenham Hotspur look the more settled squad and I will look for them to win this fixture at odds against.
Manchester City v Everton Pick: Last weekend we opened the Premier League season with the first Friday Night Football of the season and this weekend we have the first Monday Night Football. It looks a good game on paper and one that will perhaps show what we are going to come to expect from Manchester City and a new look Everton team during the course of the season.
There has been a lot of talk about the improvement Everton have made, but I will be honest and say I would be surprised if they finished in the top six. It would need one of those clubs to really have a poor season, like Chelsea did two years ago, for that to happen and I don’t believe this Everton starting eleven is better than the one they had back in May.
Gylfi Sigurdsson is a good purchase, but I struggle to see him getting into the first eleven of any of the teams that finished above Everton last season.
With that in mind I think Everton may have to settle for a decent Cup run or two and another 7th placed finish in the Premier League. I think that could be highlighted here against a Manchester City team who look strong and with options for Pep Guardiola which is going to make it tough to contain them for the full ninety minutes.
Manchester City won’t have a cakewalk to the Premier League title, because no team really achieves that, but I think they will be much improved from last season if everyone remains fit and healthy.
The big failure for Manchester City last season was the fact they beat only 1 of the top 8 clubs at the Etihad Stadium. However the performances in those games does bode well for them and a little better composure in front of goal and things would have looked a lot brighter for them. Keeping Vincent Kompany fit is huge for them but I do expect better from Manchester City in the big games this time around.
Everton were beaten at 6 of the top 9 clubs last season and half of those losses came by at least two goals. They are an organised team under Koeman which can make Everton tough to beat, but I am expecting the Manchester City pressure to pay off in this one and the home team can wear down their visitors.
I am expecting Manchester City to massively improve the home scoring this time around and I will look for them to beat Everton by a couple of goals in this one.
Bristol City v Millwall Pick: The Championship is already proving how highly competitive it is going to be this season and I have struggled to find any picks I am confident about from the fourth round of fixtures this weekend.
At this stage a watching brief can be the best way forward as teams continue to find new faces to bring in with the transfer window still a couple of weeks away.
The one pick that did stand out comes from Ashton Gate where Bristol City will host Millwall in what feels like could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Both Lee Johnson and Neil Harris like to see their teams go forward in search of goals and so far both Bristol City and Millwall have responded.
However neither has looked completely sure of themselves at the back and that should mean chances are created throughout this match. Millwall’s lack of composure against Nottingham Forest in their one away game this season is a concern with some gilt-edged chances missed in that one, but they have since scored 6 goals in 3 home games.
Bristol City have managed at least two goals in 3 of their 4 games this season, but have also only kept a single clean sheet.
With both teams likely circling this kind of fixture as one they ‘can win’, I will look for an exciting, attacking game to develop and at least three goals shared out between them.
Girona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The opening games in every League around Europe can be difficult for every club with the fitness issues meaning the differences in quality between clubs might not always show up.
We do get surprise results and you have to be wary of those, but I do think Atletico Madrid will be too good for the new boys Girona especially having kept Diego Simeone and Antoine Griezmann around.
The transfer ban is a problem in terms of Atletico being able to get closer to Real Madrid and Barcelona domestically, but they still look to be the third best team in Spain.
I expect their continuity will help early in the season and I do think Atletico Madrid will have a little too much experience for Girona to deal with. Girona have worked wonders to make their debut season in the Primera Division and being linked with Manchester City may mean some key players arrive before the transfer window closes to aid them in staying in this Division.
That has to be the only goal for Girona this season, but they are not coming up with a lot of momentum having struggled down the stretch in the Segunda Division. Some of that may have been down to feeling the pressure of earning promotion, but I do wonder if they will be able to compete with the higher level of the Primera Division.
Facing a side who pride themselves on being defensively organised will be a challenge for Girona and Atletico Madrid have had 21 clean sheets in their last 38 away League games.
I expect they can get another one here and I will look for Atletico Madrid to open their season with a narrow win. That should be based on a clean sheet too and I will back Atletico at odds against to win with one of those in the pocket.
Deportivo v Real Madrid Pick: The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo didn’t bother Real Madrid as they brushed Barcelona aside for the second time in a number of days in the Spanish Super Cup. A team who has won four trophies in their last five games has to be full of confidence even without their talisman and Real Madrid are strong favourites to get their season off to a positive start in the Primera Division.
It’s hard to see Deportivo really being able to stay with Real Madrid even if they did beat Barcelona here last season. This is a team who have generally been struggling since returning to the top flight and I am not sure this season is going to be much different for them.
Deportivo were able to raise their game against the top clubs last season, but they have not been able to compete with Real Madrid who bring plenty of firepower to the table.
That feels like being the difference again even if the layers are not so sure without Ronaldo playing. I still think Real Madrid have enough talent to win here by a couple of goals for the fourth season in a row since Deportivo returned to the top flight.
Real Madrid have had competitive matches under their belt which should mean they are to ready to come out of the traps in the Primera Division and they may catch Deportivo out here. The chances Real Madrid create should ensure they have every chance of covering the Asian Handicap on the opening weekend of the season and I will back the current Spanish and European Champions to do that.
MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bristol City-Millwall Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)
August 2017/18 Update: 14-14-2, + 0.92 Units (42 Units Staked, + 2.19% Yield)
Saturday, 17 May 2014
Weekend Football Picks 2014 (May 17-18)
The last major piece of silverware to be decided in England is the FA Cup and the Final between Arsenal and Hull City will be back in the more traditional setting of coming at the end of the League season.
I was never a fan of sticking the Cup Final a week before the end of the season as the prestige of the competition took another blow with that decision, although I do wish they had stuck to the regular 3pm kick off instead of this 5pm one they have for the weekend (spare a thought for the Hull City fans who might actually be heading home after the game).
It might have worked out a lot better for the FA Cup Final if it had been set for the 3pm kick off slot because this game is going up against the final La Liga games of the season with the Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid match kicking off at the same time. Personally I would watch the FA Cup Final, for as long as it is competitive, over the La Liga game, but I have a feeling there will be plenty of neutrals who might not do the same thing.
Of course the game at the Nou Camp is essentially a 'Final' between the top two teams in the Spanish top flight, although one that can be won by Atletico Madrid as long as they avoid defeat. There will be a real confidence they can do that ahead of the big Champions League Final against their city rivals Real Madrid next weekend, but I believe that both of those games are going to end up being linked.
If Atletico were to lose the La Liga title this weekend after virtually having two hands on the trophy two weeks ago, I would fear for their chances of winning in Lisbon. However, win the title this weekend and the momentum would certainly be behind the side considering how off the boil Real Madrid have been following the win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League Semi Finals.
It was a good week for the picks that have improved the numbers from May and the season in general as both League One Play Off Semi Final second legs were won by the home team. That has set up two good Play Off Finals next weekend with the League Two Final being set by Saturday afternoon.
With the season winding down, there might only be a few picks left for May before the World Cup post will be created in the first week of June in preparation for the tournament that kicks off on June 12th.
Arsenal v Hull City FA Cup Final Pick: If games and Finals went the way they should on paper, Wigan Athletic would never have beaten Manchester City last season and that alone should keep Arsenal fans from counting their chickens before their eggs have hatched.
For the second year in a row, the FA Cup Final looks a mismatch on paper, but Arsenal are accustomed to failing to produce in a big moment when the team is expected to win and the memories of the League Cup Final loss to Birmingham City will still be fresh in the minds of the fans going to Wembley Stadium.
Arsenal were expected to waltz through Birmingham and I get a similar feeling that they are expecting something of the same in this one, but the tension of not winning a trophy for almost a decade will play its part. As much as players tell the media they don't listen to such statistics, the Arsenal players would have to be machines to not realise the importance of winning this game.
That will bring tension into the match, although the side will also feel they have a mental edge having dismissed Hull City twice already this season. Hull are also missing the likes of Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long and I am not convinced they will have enough of a goal threat to really cause Arsenal problems through the ninety minutes.
Hull City's biggest impact is likely to come from set pieces, but they haven't scored in either game against the Gunners and I think Arsenal are going to snap their run of nine years without a trophy. Backing Arsenal to win to nil in normal time looks the call for the game.
Barcelona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The maths for this game are very simple- if Barcelona win, the win the La Liga title, but if they fail to pick up the three points, it will be their opponents Atletico Madrid who will pick up the trophy on Saturday at the Nou Camp.
They may be back in the title race, but Barcelona haven't looked like a team that is on the same page in in the last few months and I think they are going to struggle to break down Diego Simeone's team.
It is the sixth time that Atletico and Barcelona will be meeting this season and four of the last five games have ended in draws with the sole exception coming in the Champions League Semi Final that was won by Atletico Madrid in the Vicente Calderon.
My gut feeling is that Atletico are going to make themselves hard enough to beat to earn the requisite result to win the title, although this game is likely to be a draw if they are to win the League.
MY PICKS: Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Barcelona-Atletico Madrid Draw @ 3.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
May Update: 11-12, + 4.80 Units (42 Units Staked, + 11.43% Yield)
April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
I was never a fan of sticking the Cup Final a week before the end of the season as the prestige of the competition took another blow with that decision, although I do wish they had stuck to the regular 3pm kick off instead of this 5pm one they have for the weekend (spare a thought for the Hull City fans who might actually be heading home after the game).
It might have worked out a lot better for the FA Cup Final if it had been set for the 3pm kick off slot because this game is going up against the final La Liga games of the season with the Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid match kicking off at the same time. Personally I would watch the FA Cup Final, for as long as it is competitive, over the La Liga game, but I have a feeling there will be plenty of neutrals who might not do the same thing.
Of course the game at the Nou Camp is essentially a 'Final' between the top two teams in the Spanish top flight, although one that can be won by Atletico Madrid as long as they avoid defeat. There will be a real confidence they can do that ahead of the big Champions League Final against their city rivals Real Madrid next weekend, but I believe that both of those games are going to end up being linked.
If Atletico were to lose the La Liga title this weekend after virtually having two hands on the trophy two weeks ago, I would fear for their chances of winning in Lisbon. However, win the title this weekend and the momentum would certainly be behind the side considering how off the boil Real Madrid have been following the win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League Semi Finals.
It was a good week for the picks that have improved the numbers from May and the season in general as both League One Play Off Semi Final second legs were won by the home team. That has set up two good Play Off Finals next weekend with the League Two Final being set by Saturday afternoon.
With the season winding down, there might only be a few picks left for May before the World Cup post will be created in the first week of June in preparation for the tournament that kicks off on June 12th.
Arsenal v Hull City FA Cup Final Pick: If games and Finals went the way they should on paper, Wigan Athletic would never have beaten Manchester City last season and that alone should keep Arsenal fans from counting their chickens before their eggs have hatched.
For the second year in a row, the FA Cup Final looks a mismatch on paper, but Arsenal are accustomed to failing to produce in a big moment when the team is expected to win and the memories of the League Cup Final loss to Birmingham City will still be fresh in the minds of the fans going to Wembley Stadium.
Arsenal were expected to waltz through Birmingham and I get a similar feeling that they are expecting something of the same in this one, but the tension of not winning a trophy for almost a decade will play its part. As much as players tell the media they don't listen to such statistics, the Arsenal players would have to be machines to not realise the importance of winning this game.
That will bring tension into the match, although the side will also feel they have a mental edge having dismissed Hull City twice already this season. Hull are also missing the likes of Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long and I am not convinced they will have enough of a goal threat to really cause Arsenal problems through the ninety minutes.
Hull City's biggest impact is likely to come from set pieces, but they haven't scored in either game against the Gunners and I think Arsenal are going to snap their run of nine years without a trophy. Backing Arsenal to win to nil in normal time looks the call for the game.
Barcelona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The maths for this game are very simple- if Barcelona win, the win the La Liga title, but if they fail to pick up the three points, it will be their opponents Atletico Madrid who will pick up the trophy on Saturday at the Nou Camp.
They may be back in the title race, but Barcelona haven't looked like a team that is on the same page in in the last few months and I think they are going to struggle to break down Diego Simeone's team.
It is the sixth time that Atletico and Barcelona will be meeting this season and four of the last five games have ended in draws with the sole exception coming in the Champions League Semi Final that was won by Atletico Madrid in the Vicente Calderon.
My gut feeling is that Atletico are going to make themselves hard enough to beat to earn the requisite result to win the title, although this game is likely to be a draw if they are to win the League.
MY PICKS: Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Barcelona-Atletico Madrid Draw @ 3.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
May Update: 11-12, + 4.80 Units (42 Units Staked, + 11.43% Yield)
April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Saturday, 30 November 2013
Weekend Football Picks 2013 (November 30-December 1)
It has been a busy week as my working commitments means I haven't had a chance to crack on with the picks for the games this week any earlier than Saturday. However, I have to say that the games this weekend look tough to call in the Premier League and it could be a hard week to come out on the right side.
Aston Villa v Sunderland Pick: I don't like backing Aston Villa too many times at home because I do think the system they employ is much more effective when they are allowed to counter-attack and that is unlikely to be the case against Sunderland this weekend.
Aston Villa did pick up an important win over Cardiff City in their most recent game at Villa Park and Paul Lambert would have circled this game as one they have to win before the festive period really kicks in.
Gus Poyet does have Sunderland playing better of late and they have been unfortunate to lose at Stoke City last week and Hull City before that as sending offs have affected the game plan. A lack of goals has to be a concern for Poyet, particularly away from home, while they have also been conceding too many goals on their travels.
Wes Brown is a big player for Sunderland as he is a defender that certainly can excel for them, but I think the momentum of the result on Monday will spark a Villa win this weekend. At odds against, Aston Villa have to be the call in this one.
Cardiff City v Arsenal Pick: As well as Cardiff City played last week, especially in their determination not to lose that game against Manchester United, they didn't create an awful lot of chances during the 90 minutes.
With better finishing, Manchester United would have put that game to bed in the second half and I don't think Arsenal will be as generous in this game. The return of Theo Walcott gives them another attacking option and Arsenal should be able to create chances to win this game.
Arsenal have only had 1 clean sheet away from home in the Premier League this season and I do believe Cardiff will be dangerous enough to score in this one off a set piece or something like that.
However, I do think the Gunners are too strong and I will back them in the same way I backed Manchester United last week and call for Arsenal to win a game in which both teams score.
Newcastle United v West Brom Pick: Picking a winner in this game is not as clear-cut as some may initially think- Newcastle United have been in good form with a couple of big wins here and they have also protecting a decent home record.
On the other hand, West Brom may have drawn 4 of 6 away games in the League this season, but they have won at Old Trafford and should have won at Stamford Bridge so they won't feel overawed by having to face Newcastle United at St James' Park.
There is a lot of potential for goals in the game, as previous fixtures between teams here have also shown. The last 9 games at St James' Park between these sides have seen at least 3 goals scored, while 3 of the last 4 of the home/away games respectively have also seen that mark surpassed.
At 1.90, the chance for goals is perhaps a little under-rated here and I think this may be another exciting late afternoon kick off for the neutral fans to enjoy.
Real Madrid v Real Valladolid Pick: Real Madrid should be far too strong for Real Valladolid, but they are likely going to concede in this one on the way to the win.
Valladolid have scored in Barcelona, Villarreal and Valencia, while Real Madrid have conceded at least one goal in their last 4 gamesi n front of their own fans.
Even their last 2 wins over Valladolid at home have come in games they have conceded so backing the home side to win in a game where both teams score looks the way to go.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: This is a really big game for Andre Villas-Boas and his future as Tottenham Hotspur manager... The loss to Manchester City can be seen as quite a turning point for the fans and it seems to have come to a head.
Despite spending a lot of money in the summer after selling Gareth Bale, Spurs have struggled for goals and just haven't created enough chances for their new striker Roberto Soldado.
They should have chances against Manchester United who haven't been that solid defensively in their away games all season, although they are coming off the best performance of the season in the win at Bayer Leverkusen.
Some will criticise the quality of Leverkusen, but they don't lose many games at home and that was a very respectable win. United haven't been creating a lot of chances themselves, but the likes of Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie can produce a goal out of nothing and I think that will prove to be the difference in the two sides.
United have a strong record at White Hart Lane and I do think they can win this game. However, I recommend taking them on the Asian Handicap where a draw would at least return half stakes.
Hull City v Liverpool Pick: I have been impressed with the defensive shape that Hull City have had in the majority of their games this season, especially at the KC Stadium where they have been particularly stingy.
However, as much as Steve Bruce would like to sit back and try and defend deep in numbers in this one, the home crowd will mean Hull City have to show some adventure and I can see Liverpool exploiting them when they do.
Liverpool have scored plenty of goals away from home so far in the Premier League and the lack of goals in the home team will be a concern for Hull. That should be the difference between the teams in this one, and I think having someone like Luis Suarez means Liverpool can score a goal even when they are not playing particularly well.
With the goals in the Liverpool side, even away from home, I think they are going to win this game by a couple of goals.
Manchester City v Swansea Pick: There isn't really a lot to say about Manchester City when they play in front of their own supporters and they have been much more consistent at the Etihad Stadium than they have on their travels.
Manchester City have scored plenty of goals and I think Swansea are going to be the latest team to visit this ground and come away not just empty handed, but coming away with a comfortable loss.
City will score goals and Swansea haven't been playing as well this season as they did last year. Whether that is down to their participation in the Europa League or just teams getting used to their style of football is a question that will be cleared up in the next six weeks, but either way they won't find it easy to match Manchester City in this one.
The layers don't seem that convinced that City will win this one as easy as I think they might, so backing the home side for a win by at least two goals is the call.
MY PICKS: Aston Villa @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to Win @ 3.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Newcastle United-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Real Madrid to Win @ 2.38 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
November Update: 15-14-1, + 3.00 Units (45 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 46-44-1, + 2.05 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.42% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Aston Villa v Sunderland Pick: I don't like backing Aston Villa too many times at home because I do think the system they employ is much more effective when they are allowed to counter-attack and that is unlikely to be the case against Sunderland this weekend.
Aston Villa did pick up an important win over Cardiff City in their most recent game at Villa Park and Paul Lambert would have circled this game as one they have to win before the festive period really kicks in.
Gus Poyet does have Sunderland playing better of late and they have been unfortunate to lose at Stoke City last week and Hull City before that as sending offs have affected the game plan. A lack of goals has to be a concern for Poyet, particularly away from home, while they have also been conceding too many goals on their travels.
Wes Brown is a big player for Sunderland as he is a defender that certainly can excel for them, but I think the momentum of the result on Monday will spark a Villa win this weekend. At odds against, Aston Villa have to be the call in this one.
Cardiff City v Arsenal Pick: As well as Cardiff City played last week, especially in their determination not to lose that game against Manchester United, they didn't create an awful lot of chances during the 90 minutes.
With better finishing, Manchester United would have put that game to bed in the second half and I don't think Arsenal will be as generous in this game. The return of Theo Walcott gives them another attacking option and Arsenal should be able to create chances to win this game.
Arsenal have only had 1 clean sheet away from home in the Premier League this season and I do believe Cardiff will be dangerous enough to score in this one off a set piece or something like that.
However, I do think the Gunners are too strong and I will back them in the same way I backed Manchester United last week and call for Arsenal to win a game in which both teams score.
Newcastle United v West Brom Pick: Picking a winner in this game is not as clear-cut as some may initially think- Newcastle United have been in good form with a couple of big wins here and they have also protecting a decent home record.
On the other hand, West Brom may have drawn 4 of 6 away games in the League this season, but they have won at Old Trafford and should have won at Stamford Bridge so they won't feel overawed by having to face Newcastle United at St James' Park.
There is a lot of potential for goals in the game, as previous fixtures between teams here have also shown. The last 9 games at St James' Park between these sides have seen at least 3 goals scored, while 3 of the last 4 of the home/away games respectively have also seen that mark surpassed.
At 1.90, the chance for goals is perhaps a little under-rated here and I think this may be another exciting late afternoon kick off for the neutral fans to enjoy.
Real Madrid v Real Valladolid Pick: Real Madrid should be far too strong for Real Valladolid, but they are likely going to concede in this one on the way to the win.
Valladolid have scored in Barcelona, Villarreal and Valencia, while Real Madrid have conceded at least one goal in their last 4 gamesi n front of their own fans.
Even their last 2 wins over Valladolid at home have come in games they have conceded so backing the home side to win in a game where both teams score looks the way to go.
Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: This is a really big game for Andre Villas-Boas and his future as Tottenham Hotspur manager... The loss to Manchester City can be seen as quite a turning point for the fans and it seems to have come to a head.
Despite spending a lot of money in the summer after selling Gareth Bale, Spurs have struggled for goals and just haven't created enough chances for their new striker Roberto Soldado.
They should have chances against Manchester United who haven't been that solid defensively in their away games all season, although they are coming off the best performance of the season in the win at Bayer Leverkusen.
Some will criticise the quality of Leverkusen, but they don't lose many games at home and that was a very respectable win. United haven't been creating a lot of chances themselves, but the likes of Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie can produce a goal out of nothing and I think that will prove to be the difference in the two sides.
United have a strong record at White Hart Lane and I do think they can win this game. However, I recommend taking them on the Asian Handicap where a draw would at least return half stakes.
Hull City v Liverpool Pick: I have been impressed with the defensive shape that Hull City have had in the majority of their games this season, especially at the KC Stadium where they have been particularly stingy.
However, as much as Steve Bruce would like to sit back and try and defend deep in numbers in this one, the home crowd will mean Hull City have to show some adventure and I can see Liverpool exploiting them when they do.
Liverpool have scored plenty of goals away from home so far in the Premier League and the lack of goals in the home team will be a concern for Hull. That should be the difference between the teams in this one, and I think having someone like Luis Suarez means Liverpool can score a goal even when they are not playing particularly well.
With the goals in the Liverpool side, even away from home, I think they are going to win this game by a couple of goals.
Manchester City v Swansea Pick: There isn't really a lot to say about Manchester City when they play in front of their own supporters and they have been much more consistent at the Etihad Stadium than they have on their travels.
Manchester City have scored plenty of goals and I think Swansea are going to be the latest team to visit this ground and come away not just empty handed, but coming away with a comfortable loss.
City will score goals and Swansea haven't been playing as well this season as they did last year. Whether that is down to their participation in the Europa League or just teams getting used to their style of football is a question that will be cleared up in the next six weeks, but either way they won't find it easy to match Manchester City in this one.
The layers don't seem that convinced that City will win this one as easy as I think they might, so backing the home side for a win by at least two goals is the call.
MY PICKS: Aston Villa @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Both Teams to Score and Arsenal to Win @ 3.30 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Newcastle United-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Both Teams to Score and Real Madrid to Win @ 2.38 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
November Update: 15-14-1, + 3.00 Units (45 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 46-44-1, + 2.05 Units (144 Units Staked, + 1.42% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
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