NBA Playoffs 2026- Second Round Picks Game 5-7 (Tuesday 12th May-Monday 18th May)

The First Round produced a number of tough, gruelling Series, but it has been a different story in the Second Round.

My New York Knicks have continued to impress and have swept past the Philadelphia 76ers to reach the Eastern Conference Finals again and the experiences from last year are expected to help this team.

For most of the fans, the NBA Finals has to be the minimum aim and winning the NBA Cup earlier in the season raised expectations- the performances in the Playoffs have been even more impressive since falling 2-1 behind in the First Round and seven straight wins means the Knicks will be confident whether they play the Detroit Pistons or the Cleveland Cavaliers, which is a Series that is definitely reaching Game 5.

The Western Conference Series between the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves is the only one that is definitely going to need a Game 6, at least at the time of writing.

A long Series likely benefits the Oklahoma City Thunder, even if they are forced into a Game 5 in their own Series against the Los Angeles Lakers, but they should be awaiting the winner of the other Second Round Series in the West and the defending Champions still look the team to beat.

The selections from Game 5-7 of the Second Round Series still being played will be placed in this thread and then a new thread will begin this weekend when the Conference Finals are hoping to begin.

Tuesday 12th May

Minnesota Timberwolves @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: Playoff Games are always going to have factors that can determine the outcome of a contest, which are almost impossible to predict for the watching fans.

One is clearly injury related- losing a big name in the middle of a Playoff Game and within a Series can tip things one way or the other very quickly.

The other is teams beginning to get fed up of one another and a growing dislike leading to ejections.

Without a doubt, Game 4 of this Western Conference Series will have been massively impacted by the Victor Wembanyama ejection in the Second Quarter.

The Minnesota Timberwolves took advantage by attacking the rim and using their bigger players inside the paint as they rallied for a win over the San Antonio Spurs. Players in Timberwolves uniform admitted that the absence of Wemby on the court helped them game plan much more effectively and the momentum is back with Minnesota, even if they have to replicate Game 1 and win one on the road.

The expectation is that the League is not going to suspend Victor Wembanyama for another game, but will see the relatively early ejection in Game 4 as being enough punishment.  Even without him on the court, the San Antonio Spurs showed some of the depth on the roster with other stepping up and that will mean the Number 2 Seed should still be operating with a lot of confidence.

Head Coach Mitch Johnson was highly critical of the physicality the officials are allowing the Timberwolves to play with and he refused to blame Victor Wembanyama, although privately you have to expect him to try and make sure his superstar remains as composed as possible. The Timberwolves are going to feel they have found a chink in the armour of the Spurs' best player and you have to expect them to throw bodies at him again and hope to reel in another mistake.

Minnesota also have to be really happy with the level that Anthony Edwards is producing and it is important for the road team to find a way to get the supporting cast going on the road.

The last time they played in this building, Head Coach Chris Finch stated his team had been 'punked' and it is crucial for the Timberwolves to come out with real intensity.

You have to expect a fired up crowd, but more worrying is going to be the focus and threat of Victor Wembanyama who is going to want to dominate and make up for the error of judgment he had in Game 4.

Standing in the way of that is never an easy decision with superstars routinely making it their whole focus to bounce back when they feel they have not had their best outing or let their teammates down.

It is easy to see a situation in which the Spurs come out hard and fast and blow Minnesota away, but three of the four games have been highly competitive and the Timberwolves have won here already in this Series. They will need to make some adjustments to deal with the Wemby presence, but Minnesota have to be excited by what Anthony Edwards is bringing onto the court and that could see them keep this one competitive.

Big home favourites have not been the best to back in recent NBA Playoff Second Round Series, while those favoured by at least 5.5 points in Game 5 are on a run of 12-19 against the spread.

Any home team favoured by at least 8.5 points are now on a run of 11-23 against the spread in the Second Round (3-2 against the spread this season) and, while there are a couple of solid trends that land in favour of this angry San Antonio team, the Timberwolves can make use of the amount of points being handed to them in this Game 5.

Wednesday 13th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Game 5 Pick: Momentum is back with the Cleveland Cavaliers after holding serve twice at home, but they still have to do something they have not managed to do in the post-season to this point... Win on the road.

Six wins have been produced at home having taking Game 3 and Game 4 against the Detroit Pistons, but the two earlier road losses means the Cavaliers have lost all five road Playoff games played.

Simply put, the Cavaliers will not be able to progress without beating the Pistons at least once on the road and they have an attempt at doing that in Game 5.

Donovan Mitchell came alive in the second half of Game 4 to swing things back in favour of the Cleveland Cavaliers, but he will need some of the teammates to step up in these road atmospheres. It has long been a feature of the Playoffs that players have had vastly different experiences when playing at home and on the road, but that is especially the case for the role players who try and aid the superstar.

The Cavaliers have struggled in the main and the losses have piled up, but they will feel they have found a formula for success in the last two games at home and building on that is the key.

For the top Seed, two road losses in relatively close contests will hurt, but the Detroit Pistons have to believe there are 'easier' adjustments to be made when returning home.

The bench stepped up in Game 4, but the starters all had their problems and that should be easier to clean up in front of the home fans.

Cade Cunningham does need to see one or two of the other starters to pick up their level, but he will be encouraged by the support of the bench and the Detroit Pistons should feel more comfortable at home.

Perhaps more importantly, the officials are less likely to be overwhelmed by the atmosphere as the Pistons have felt they have been in the two road defeats.

Head Coach JB Bickerstaff made his feelings clear about what he felt was home officiating by mentioning the huge disparity in the Free Throw numbers awarded in Game 4 and it was clear that made a difference in the outcome of a close game. He even mentioned the fact that he feels the whistles against his team have become more frequent because of comments made by Cleveland Head Coach Kenny Atkinson, but the home crowd are going to be on top of the officials in this one and that could even things up.

If they are even on the Free Throw attempts, you have to give the Detroit Pistons a slight edge.

Defensively they have shown they can slow down this Cleveland team for long enough to hold them off and the Pistons are in a decent enough spot as a relatively small home favourite in Game 5.

It should also be noted that teams who lost Game 4 by at least seven points have bounced back in recent years to produce a 19-7 record against the spread in Game 5 and the Detroit Pistons can remind all about their prospects by winning and covering to take a lead in this Second Round Series with two games left to play.

Friday 15th May

Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Game 6 Pick: Much like the Orlando Magic in the First Round Series, there is now going to be a question about the top Seed Detroit Pistons and how much they have left to battle back after blowing a big lead in Game 5 of this Second Round Series.

With time running down at the end of the Fourth Quarter and with a 9 point lead, the Detroit Pistons had to have felt that they were about to take a 3-2 lead in this back and forth Series.

Instead they went ice cold from the field and allowed the Cleveland Cavaliers to not only rally to force Overtime, but then continue the momentum early into that period to take a lead that they were able to manage to the end of the game.

And just like that, the Cavaliers have won on the road for the first time in the Playoffs and return home on Friday with an opportunity to book their spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

All of the momentum is with the Cleveland Cavaliers who had 15 fewer shots than the Detroit Pistons in Game 5, but once again dominated the number of Free Throws being taken. The Cavaliers have rallied from a 2-0 deficit to take a 3-2 lead in this Second Round Series and all of the adjustments have to be made by the Detroit Pistons.

The four key starters of the Cavaliers all had big outings in Game 5, but the team also had a big impact off the bench from Max Strus- the real concern for the Pistons was going to be trying to match the Offensive power Cleveland has on the court and that has proven to be the difference.

Cade Cunningham did all he could to help his team, but the other four starters had just 47 points combined to add to the 39 he was scoring himself. There was a hope that Jalen Duren would eventually produce his regular season form in the post-season, but he has continued to struggle and there is now a real question for the Pistons to answer about his suitability to start Game 6.

Something has to change for the Pistons if they are going to force a Game 7 back at home this weekend, but it is a big ask.

Underdogs have played well in Game 6 in recent Second Round Series, but three losses in a row have shifted all momentum to the lower Seed who will feel this is their one big opportunity to progress to the Eastern Conference Finals.

Top Seeds set as underdogs have a losing record in recent Second Round Series in that spot and the Pistons are 0-2 against the spread in that situation within this one.

The Pistons have shown all season how good they can be, but this may go down as a learning experience in the post-season and the Cleveland Cavaliers have the firepower to close things out in front of the home fans.

San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 6 Pick: Everyone was expecting a big reaction from Victor Wembanyama after his Game 4 ejection, but seemingly the memo was not read by the Minnesota Timberwolves. Another slow start cost them Game 5 and Wembanyama had a dominant impact to help the San Antonio Spurs take a 3-2 lead in this Second Round Series and look to close things out as soon as Friday.

Winning on the road is never easy, but the Spurs have done that once already in this Series and were beaten in the other outing in Minnesota when Wemby was ejected before the end of the first half.

Close out spots have tended to be more comfortable for road teams and the Spurs look to have the momentum to make sure they can do that here and avoid the pressure on a Game 7. Instead they will want to make sure they are as energetic as they can be for what is looking like becoming a top Western Conference Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Timberwolves are going to have something to say about that and the extra day between games for the first time in this Series can only help them as they look to make some adjustments. Having that time for Anthony Edwards to rest his knee can only be a positive, but the Timberwolves need to find some solid, consistent support for the best player on the roster, much as San Antonio did in Game 5 to back up Victor Wembanyama.

Role players do tend to find things a bit more comfortable at home, while the Minnesota fanbase is going to be right behind a team that have earned Playoff upsets before and have the experience of overcoming the odds.

It certainly makes the Timberwolves dangerous, but the San Antonio Spurs have an experience of the atmosphere that is going to be facing them and they will feel they have been the better team in the Series since dropping Game 1. Having players like De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle producing some quality basketball without Wemby in Game 4 will only have given the Spurs that much more confidence and they have it within themselves to win for a second time on the road.

As mentioned, Game 6 of the Second Round Series have leaned in favour of the underdog, but like the Eastern Conference Series that has played out this far, the feeling is that the favourite in Game 6 may have broken the back of the Series with a Game 5 win.

Big road favourites have not always been the best to back in the Second Round Series, but those teams are 2-2 against the spread in 2026 and one of those defeats was Game 4 of this Series, which shifted significantly after the Wemby ejection.

Assuming he keeps his cool, Victor Wembanyama can erase memories of that Game 4 by leading the Spurs to a big win and a place in the Western Conference Finals for the first time since 2017 when they were swept by the Golden State Warriors.

Sunday 17th May

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Detroit Pistons Game 7 Pick: This has been an incredibly difficult Second Round Series to call and even when you think you have gotten to grips with it, something changes the narrative.

It really felt the big Game 5 comeback and win in Overtime had given the Cleveland Cavaliers all of the momentum in the Series with three straight wins behind them and a home game to earn a spot in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavaliers had not lost a home game in the post-season, but they were blown away by the top Seeded Detroit Pistons who have won an elimination game for the fourth time already in the 2026 Playoffs.

The Cavaliers also played a Game 7 elimination game in the First Round, but that was at home and this is going to be a tough spot for an experienced team.

Experience can also mean previous poor experience and that is the case for Donovan Mitchell who has been the focus of some of the criticism for the Game 6 defeat on Friday night- he has never been part of a team that has missed the Playoffs, but Mitchell has yet to reach the Conference Finals in either the East or West, while he has been on a team that has lost six straight Game 6s after the defeat at home.

James Harden was brought into Cleveland for situations like this, but Donovan Mitchell has long been the key for the Cavaliers and he has to have a big outing if the Number 4 Seed are going to earn the spot in the Eastern Conference Finals.

All of the questions will be posed for the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the Detroit Pistons are trying to downplay the pressure that may still be on their shoulders.

The team continue to suggest the 2026 Playoffs are an experience builder, but they will be extremely disappointed if they were to lose the last two home games and fail to reach the Eastern Conference Finals.

Winning on the road in the manner they did on Friday has to give the team belief, while Cade Cunningham will be very happy to see a couple of key starting teammates find some form. The Pistons know what they are going to get from Cunningham, but the likes of Jalen Duren and Ausar Thompson have to ride the momentum of Game 6 and bring some of that Offensive firepower into this deciding contest.

Doing that will put the Pistons in a strong position as they continue to show up Defensively and that may be the key in Game 7 on Sunday.

Favourites have struggled in Game 7 of recent Second Round Series, but the team that have won Game 6 have a 10-3 record against the spread in this 'winner takes all' game.

You have to expect a big reaction from the Cleveland Cavaliers, but the Detroit Pistons should have beaten them here in Game 5 and they may do just enough to do that in what should be a tense, loud atmosphere in the home Arena.

MY PICKS: 12/05 Minnesota Timberwolves + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/05 Detroit Pistons - 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

15/05 Cleveland Cavaliers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

15/05 San Antonio Spurs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

17/05 Detroit Pistons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Second Round Update: 5-7, - 2.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 20.42% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2019 (May 17th)

The rain on Wednesday meant fifty matches were scheduled in Rome for Thursday as the majority of the Second Round and the whole of the Third Round had to be completed as well as a host of Doubles matches.

It was a busy day all around, but the headlines were grabbed by Nick Kyrgios just twenty-four hours after the release of an explosive interview on a podcast.

In that interview, Kyrgios admitted his dislike for both Fernando Verdasco and Novak Djokovic and had some words for Rafael Nadal too. It sounded like the Australian doesn't have a lot of time for any of those players, although he was glowing of Roger Federer before describing Andy Murray's head to head with Djokovic as 'embarrassing' despite being close to the Scot.

We don't really hear stuff like this from tennis players these days so it was a breath of fresh air and certainly makes future matches between Kyrgios and any of the three he disparaged as 'must watch' entertainment. Some would not have liked it, but I don't mind people speaking their minds, although it backed up why I almost never make selections on Kyrgios matches despite being a fan.

He admitted he doesn't owe the fans anything and he is a terrible favourite to get behind. As an underdog he can be interesting and he might even be someone that can be opposed at times, but I like steering clear as I can't guess what he is going to bring from day to day.

To back up that feeling, Kyrgios decided to throw his chair onto the court in his Second Round defeat in Rome on Thursday. He then packed up his stuff and walked off court while on serve in the third set and that earned Krygios a default and more unwanted headlines.


I know he could be a top player if he put his mind to it, but for too long Kyrgios has admitted he doesn't love tennis enough to want to work at his game. Maybe he will eventually get it, or maybe he will be the enigma that people can't help watching.

I think he is a better bloke than he likes to portray on the court and I will remain a fan. He is someone I would pay to watch, despite my doubts about what kind of performance we will see from him, and that is because I do think he is entertaining. Each to their own I suppose.


In this thread I have updated the season totals and the weekly total having seen the last couple of days disrupted with matches being held over.


MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Johanna Konta @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rome Update: 17-15, + 0 Units (64 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2019: + 73.40 Units (655 Units Staked, + 11.21% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (May 17th)

On a day where I came away with more winning Picks than losing Picks it can be hard to be too disappointed but that was my overall feeling out of the day.

Each day I have compiled a short list of matches before breaking down the numbers and determining whether those matches will make it as one of my Tennis Picks for the day. I saw a number of those players I passed on winning comfortably on Tuesday as they made their way into the Third Round of this last major event prior to the French Open beginning.

That can be a little frustrating, but it would have been a lot worse if I had not come away with a winning record on Wednesday and I will take the positive number for the week being added to.

On Thursday I would be surprised if we don't get at least a break in the play, but it should be another strong day of Tennis with both the ATP Rome and WTA Rome events completing their Third Rounds in the same day.


Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 games v Johanna Konta: It still feels weird to think about Jelena Ostapenko as a Grand Slam Champion and she is going to have a lot of Ranking points to defend at the French Open. So far Ostapenko has not really found the consistency in terms of results on the clay courts, but I think she has been playing well enough to expect better on the surface.

Ostapenko is going to be challenged by Johanna Konta who has won back to back matches here in Rome. The clay courts have not always been the most favourite surface for Konta to play on, but the two wins this week will have given her confidence which makes her a dangerous opponent for the Latvian.

Winning the French Open means Ostapenko is going to be slightly over-rated on the clay courts, but I don't think that is the case in this match.

Compared with 2017, Ostapenko has definitely improved on the serving side of things with superior first serve and second serve points won and she is 4-2 on the surface. Only the loss to Irina-Camelia Begu could be considered a poor one for Ostapenko and there is perhaps some room for improvement when it comes to the return of serve.

If she can do that Ostapenko is going to be another threat at the French Open as she defends her title and I do think she is going to be a little better than Konta in this one. The Konta serve has been a decent weapon for her on the clay courts and she has returned as well as Ostapenko which is going to be make this a very close match.

The difference may be that Ostapenko is much more comfortable on the clay courts than Konta and that could keep her mentally stronger when we reach critical points in the set. She is also serving slightly better and the level of competition Ostapenko has faced has been stronger than Konta's which suggests the numbers being similar has much to do with Konta beating those players she should do.

It may need three sets to separate these players, but Ostapenko can edge this one and cover the number.


Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: The defending Champion in Rome will continue her defence of the title she won twelve months ago when Elina Svitolina takes on Daria Kasatkina in a good looking Third Round match.

Svitolina has been one of the more consistent players on the clay courts over the last few years and there will be plenty of people backing her to win her maiden Grand Slam at the French Open. The numbers have remained pretty similar when it comes to the serve and return impact Svitolina has had in matches over the four seasons.

The results have not come as Svitolina would have liked in 2018 but she has suffered a couple of close losses which can be overturned.

Svitolina will have to be at close to her best level to beat someone like Daria Kasatkina who has shown she is very comfortable on the clay courts and who has won a couple of matches here in Rome in strong fashion. However her numbers do take a serious dent when Kasatkina has played top 50 Ranked players and she struggles a little more to compete with top 20 Ranked players.

This has to be something of a concern for Kasatkina going into a match against an opponent she has lost to in all three previous matches played. One those was in Dubai in the Final back in February and none have been on the clay courts, but Svitolina looks like a player with a little more all around game on this surface.

I think that will help Svitolina reach the Quarter Final in Rome again and I think she can get the better of Kasatkina in a strong win.


Maria Sharapova - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: Third time is hopefully the charm when backing Maria Sharapova this week who has come through her first two matches with some positive momentum, but who has just made a couple of mistakes which have prevented the cover in matches.

She has deserved both wins against Ashleigh Barty and Dominika Cibulkova, but there is still room for better for Sharapova.

However a big factor in backing her on Thursday in this Third Round match is the fact that opponent Daria Gavrilova played a long match on Wednesday which went deep into the Rome night. The win over Garbine Muguruza saw the Australian hold her nerve at key times, but the match finished close to 3am Rome time and by the time Gavrilova has rested there isn't a lot of time between that finish and this match beginning.

Gavrilova has been struggling on the clay courts in 2018 for any consistency and she has the kind of game that Sharapova will have been used to dealing having played similar players in Barty and Cibulkova. Sharapova will expect Gavrilova to use her speed of movement around the court to try and extract errors by making sure she gets plenty of balls back in play, but it is tough to do that in her current circumstances and fatigue has to wear her down.

The fact her own serve is likely to be put under significant pressure by Sharapova only will increase the mental fatigue and I think the Russian matches her margin of win over Gavrilova when they last played back in 2015. That was also here in Rome and Sharapova deservedly won 7-5, 6-3 that day and I think we will see something similar this time around.

MY PICKS: Jelena Ostapenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Roma Masters Update: 9-6, + 5 Units (30 Units Staked, + 16.67% Yield)

Rome Masters Tennis Picks 2017 (May 17th)

It has to be considered a surprise after all the rumours in the last couple of weeks, but Maria Sharapova was not awarded a Wild Card into the French Open this season.

That's not just for the main draw, but shockingly the organisers decided that they had to make a stand for any Wild Card and that means Sharapova is not even going to be in a position to play the Qualifiers. No one really expected the French Open to do that and now the pressure is on Wimbledon to follow suit and force Sharapova to come through the Qualifiers with her World Ranking being in a position to compete days before the main draw.

I have to think Wimbledon will do that, although a bad day for Maria Sharapova didn't get any better when having to withdraw from the Rome Premier Event with left thigh injury. That means we are not going to see Sharapova back on the court until the grass court season and there will be plenty who will respect the decision the French Open organisers made to avoid handing out a Wild Card.

Maria Sharapova is a huge name and will draw the headlines, but I think there is some irony that Frenchman Constant Lestienne was given a Wild Card into the Qualifiers despite previously serving a suspension from the Tour of his own. That was down to betting on tennis matches, although not his own, but I think you can't take a moral stance on one issue and not another, although Lestienne's participation is hardly going to see the world's media descend on the Qualifiers days ahead of the main tournament beginning at Roland Garros.


Ultimately I do agree with the decision made by the French Open organisers as I don't think a player should be welcomed back with open arms by the big Grand Slam events who won't lose too much revenue by the absence of one player. The decision is obviously much bigger for the French Open when you think of the other names who have already declared their absence from the tournament including Roger Federer just yesterday, but I think they have made the right call.

It will hurt Sharapova, but I think she can be in a position to play the last two Grand Slams of the 2017 season on merit as long as her injury is not too severe. The Russian doesn't strike me as someone who is going to allow this to bother her, but instead I think the decision will motivate Sharapova to find her way back to the top of the WTA Tour where a vacuum has been left by the absences of Serena Williams, Victoria Azarenka and Petra Kvitova.


None of the leading contenders on the WTA Tour have been playing well enough to think they can be backed with complete faith to win the French Open. This means the second Grand Slam of the season looks like being one that many will believe offers them the best chance to win a title of this magnitude which is going to bring a pressure of its own and that will also mean the potential of finding a big priced winner.

That is for another day with the draw set to take place in ten days time for a tournament which begins in under two weeks and instead I will focus on the wide range of matches to be played in Rome on Wednesday.

While the first couple of days have not offered a lot of options, Wednesday looks like a number of potential players can be backed to come through their matches and you can find the picks below.


Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: After coming from a set down to beat Grigor Dimitrov in the First Round, Juan Martin Del Potro is a pretty big favourite to see off Kyle Edmund in the Second Round. Edmund also had a decent First Round win behind him, but this is a step up in class for him and I think he is still lacking the consistency to really beat a player of this quality.

I do think Edmund will have his moments at times in the match as he can put together some solid points and has shown that against players of the quality of Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem on the clay courts this past six weeks. However to do that for long enough to win the match has been an issue for Edmund and he is going to be dealing with some tremendous power coming back at him from the other side of the court.

Edmund has not really been returning that well and it is going to be difficult for him to really get his teeth into the Del Potro service games if the latter is anything close to the level he showed against Dimitrov. Del Potro will also take big swings at the Edmund serve to force his opponent behind the baseline and I think he will be too strong over the course of the match.

I think Edmund may have some success, but he is going to be under pressure to protect his serve and I think Del Potro will earn the breaks of serve to get into a position to win this match 6-3, 6-4.


Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v David Ferrer: Kei Nishikori withdrew from the Madrid Masters last week just hours before facing Novak Djokovic in the Quarter Final as he was suffering pain in the wrist which has bothered him for the last couple of months. I am leaning on the side of Nishikori withdrawing as a precaution with the French Open fast approaching and the Japanese star taking his place in the draw in Rome has to be a sign he is ready to compete.

There is a chance he wakes up on Wednesday and decides he will pull out, but I think Nishikori will feel good to go if he does head out to the court.

He should have too much for the veteran David Ferrer who came from a set down to beat Feliciano Lopez on Tuesday, but the Spaniard is far from his top level now. Nishikori was a comfortable winner over Ferrer last week in Madrid and he has dominated the recent head to head between these players and Ferrer has significantly slipped since the majority of their matches two years ago.

Ferrer loses a lot more matches that he would have dominated in the past and I don't think he has the level to compete with the best players on the Tour. Barring Nishikori having a setback in his wrist issue, in which case I am not sure he risks staying out on the court, I am expecting the higher Ranked player to record another comfortable win over the vet.

Last week it ended 6-3, 6-4 in favour of Nishikori and I would expect a similar margin this time around.


Rafael Nadal - 5.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: Some of the tennis that Nicolas Almagro has produced in the last couple of weeks has been very good, but he will have to raise his performances even more if he is going to challenge the 'King of Clay' Rafael Nadal. Pushing Novak Djokovic all the way in a tough three setter in Madrid was impressive, but Nadal is playing a couple of levels higher than the Serb.

Winning titles on clay at the rate Nadal has been makes him a big favourite to win yet another French Open title and I don't think many will oppose him. The court speed in Rome will be much more to the liking of the Madrid Champion and I expect Nadal to once again go deep into the draw and possibly set up another Semi Final clash with Djokovic.

There is plenty of respect Nadal has for Almagro which goes back to their younger days when Almagro was considered the more talented player. That means they have had some very close matches on the clay, but there have been plenty of times when Nadal has dominated proceedings and he does hold a dominant head to head with Almagro.

Almagro has won three matches in Rome to feel good in the conditions, but I do think he is not able to play his best tennis for consistent enough in this one. While I expect Almagro to make one of the sets very competitive, I can see Nadal dominating the other as he wears down his opponent mentally and physically and that can be reflected in the score.

It does feel Nadal will come away with a 6-4, 6-2 kind of win to move through to the Third Round and make it sixteen straight wins on the clay courts over the last six weeks.


Jack Sock - 2.5 games v Jiri Vesely: It was a really tough First Round match for Jack Sock, but he did show character to come through and I expect him to be too good for Jiri Vesely in the Second Round. While most American players on the ATP side of the Tour will not feel at their very best on the clay, Sock has the kind of game that works very effectively on this surface especially when he is playing with some confidence.

Sock has had some solid runs at the French Open and the biggest concern has to be that Vesely is well rested having played his First Round match a few days ago. Vesely beat Daniel Evans in expected fashion, but he has yet to really worked in the consistency that many would have tipped for him once making his breakthrough on the Tour.

The results in recent weeks have been very mixed for Vesely, but he has to be respected on what is his favoured surface. However, the Czech player was beaten early in the Rome Challenger last week and there are so many ups and downs with the Vesely serve and the way it is functioning that it has been difficult for him to really play with the confidence you need in these big tournaments.

It was Sock who got the better of their match at the Miami Masters in March and I think he is adept enough to play on this surface to get the better of Vesely again. I think Sock is capable of getting enough balls back in play on the return to find his forehand going into the Vesely backhand to do some real damage and I can see that helping him edge past this opponent.

A 7-6, 6-4 kind of win for Sock looks to be the outcome of this match.


Dominic Thiem - 3.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: These two players met in the Semi Final of the Madrid Masters and I thought Pablo Cuevas would be able to at least keep things competitive. I was wrong with Dominic Thiem proving to be much stronger on the return of serve and I think the Austrian can frank that win with another by a similar margin on Wednesday in Rome.

Both Thiem and Cuevas have has a lot of success on the clay courts over the last few weeks which isn't a big surprise when you think how both favour the surface. However it is Thiem who has shown a little more consistency to the point of being a genuine dark horse at the French Open and he dealt with the Cuevas game effectively enough last week.

The conditions are different in Rome compared with the speedy Madrid courts, but Thiem has played well here in the past. On the other hand, Cuevas has not enjoyed much success in the Rome Masters and was beaten by Nicolas Mahut last season and had some difficulties in seeing off Adrian Mannarino in the First Round.

That match might have indicated that Cuevas is dealing with some tiredness and he could be put under pressure by Thiem especially if the Austrian is serving as well as he did in their Semi Final in Madrid. While I find it hard to think Thiem can serve as strongly as last week, I do think he will once again have the majority of the break point chances and a more clinical performance at those big moments could see this being another similar kind of margin as the victory last week.


Jan-Lennard Struff - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: There hasn't been a lot of success for Jan-Lennard Struff on the clay courts at the main Tour level prior to this season, but 2017 might be a turning point for him. The German has won plenty of matches at the Challenger and Qualifier level on the surface, but this year he has a couple of Quarter Final runs and a Third Round appearance at the Monte Carlo Masters behind him.

Winning matches gives any player confidence and Struff has been winning plenty of matches which includes a couple of Qualifier wins here in Rome before beating Bernard Tomic in the First Round. He has a decent serve and Struff is clearly hitting the ball well enough off the ground to think he can give Sam Querrey something to figure out here.

To say the clay court season is not that important to Querrey is an understatement with the grass much more to his liking which comes on the heels of the French Open. Querrey has a solid win over Lucas Pouille to come through the First Round here, and that was a win which snapped a run of four consecutive losses on the European clay courts from 2016.

He also hadn't won a main Tour match in the Rome Masters since 2012 and had three consecutive losses here with the conditions not really favouring the big serve followed by big forehand approach. Here Querrey has to hit more shots and that sees the consistency, or lack thereof, being exposed.

We will likely have to see at least one tie-breaker in this one, but I think Struff can get the better of that with the way he has been playing and that can set him up for a 7-6, 6-4 win over Querrey.


Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 games v Benoit Paire: This is one of a number of matches that took place in Madrid last week, but this one where I am expecting a change in the result. Last week Benoit Paire was able to get the better of Stan Wawrinka, but the conditions in Rome should be much more to the latter's liking than we saw in Madrid.

More points should develop into the longer rallies and Wawrinka's heavy shots as well as the usually stronger consistency than Paire might come out to show. Last week Wawrinka struggled when it came to the break points he created, but I can't expect Paire to be as strong in the pressurised moments as he did show in Madrid.

Wawrinka has had a disappointing clay court season so far which makes it harder to trust him here, but I do think he will enjoy the way the court plays in Rome. He has to serve better than he did in their last meeting and Wawrinka has to put more pressure on Paire by looking after the unforced errors which allows the Frenchman to build confidence.

As well as Paire played in the win over Wawrinka, it should not be ignored of the up and down nature of his performances through his career. He wasn't as good in the First Round win over Nicolas Mahut and Paire has suffered some one-sided losses over the last couple of months which suggests last week was just an exception to the normal rule.

This time I expect Wawrinka to have a little too much all around game for Paire as he wins the match 6-4, 6-4.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 games v Anastasija Sevastova: Both Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Anastasija Sevastova have had some real success on the clay courts this season and that should mean two confident players are meeting in the Second Round in Rome.

The reason I am favouring Pavlyuchenkova is that I do think she is a little better when it comes to the serving department and that can make the difference in what is a close match. When Pavlyuchenkova is serving well, her return game can be very heavy and I am expecting the Russian to be able to tee off against the Sevastova serve when she begins to get a read of that delivery.

Sevastova can protect the serve with her movement and ability to play solid defence and then being able to turn the rally in her favour. She does have the edge when it comes to her ability to get around the court compared with Pavlyuchenkova, although the heavier shots will come from the Russian.

First strike tennis is going to be important for these players as it will allow that player to take control of the rally, but I am favouring Pavlyuchenkova to get the better of the rallies more often than not. Her 4-0 head to head record against Sevastova will also give Pavlyuchenkova the mental edge in the match and ultimately will be part of the reason the Russian moves through to the Third Round with a 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 win behind her.


Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: The last twelve months have been difficult for Garbine Muguruza since winning the French Open as she has failed to live up to the kind of potential so many believed she had. An injury hasn't helped her cause over the last month as Muguruza has lost her first match on the clay courts in the two tournaments she has entered.

Confidence is low and Muguruza is not going to have a lot of people backing her to defend the French Open title she won last year. Things have changed so much for her as well as opponent Jelena Ostapenko in the last twelve months that this Second Round match is almost set as a pick 'em contest compared to 2016 in Rome when Muguruza was a big favourite to win.

The Spaniard backed up those odds by crushing Ostapenko, but now Muguruza is out of form and Ostapenko has won a lot of matches on the clay courts over the last six weeks to build up her own belief. However I don't think Ostapenko has too many really big wins and so there is going to be a pressure on her to show she can compete with someone who can be as good as Muguruza can be on her day.

The first serve is going to be key for Muguruza with that setting up the rest of her game. If she can get that going from the start of this match, Muguruza can get the better of Ostapenko although we may need three sets to determine who is moving through to the Third Round.

I am looking for Muguruza to put her first win on the clay on the board here in conditions that should suit her game. Ostapenko will make life difficult, but Muguruza can hit through her opponent and produce a 6-3, 3-6, 6-4 win.

MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominic Thiem - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Jan-Lennard Struff - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Rome Update: 6-2, + 6.42 Units (16 Units Staked, + 40.13% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (May 15-18)

The Premier League and majority of big European Leagues will come to a close at the end of this week and that means a couple of months without a lot of football is ready to come out.

It has been a difficult season for the picks, but that's just the way it goes sometimes and I just have to do some research over the next few months to prepare for the 2017/18 season.

This week we have a number of make-up games in the Premier League as we complete the season on Sunday.


Chelsea v Watford Pick: The emotion of winning the Premier League just a few days ago has to be factored in to the kind of performance Chelsea are going to be able to produce on Monday. The celebrations will mean the players might just lose a touch of intensity, while Antonio Conte may make some big changes to his starting eleven to ensure his key players are ready for the FA Cup Final in two weeks time.

You can certainly see John Terry starting the last couple of League games as he signs off on his Chelsea career and other fringe players may also get their opportunity with the Premier League title secured.

Even with that in mind, Chelsea are home for the final two League games and I don't think there will be a big let down. They are also fortunate in the two opponents they have yet to play and Watford is an ideal fixture for a celebration considering how poorly they have played down the stretch.

The Hornets have not scored in their last 6 away Premier League games and the players may just have stopped playing for the manager now their future has been secured. There could be a managerial change again at Vicarage Road in the summer and I do think it will be tough for Watford to pick up their own play for this fixture.

I considered picking Chelsea to win to nil, but I think they can celebrate the Premier League with a convincing performance at Stamford Bridge on Monday. Conte will inspire his players to keep pushing and I think Chelsea win this by a couple of goals at least against a demotivated Watford.


Arsenal v Sunderland Pick: The top four chances took a huge blow on Sunday for Arsenal as Liverpool's win over West Ham United means The Gunners are hoping for at least one upset in the final week of the season to change things for them. They can at least try and keep the pressure on Liverpool and Manchester City by winning this Premier League game on Tuesday, although they will likely need a performance from already relegated Middlesbrough to have any chance of returning to the Champions League.

Arsene Wenger can't focus on that, but has to make sure Arsenal keep up their recent good run of form and at least have some momentum to take into the FA Cup Final. Winning that competition without a top four finish won't alleviate any pressure on the manager though and a big decision needs to be made at the Emirates Stadium in the next couple of weeks.

The players haven't given up on the manager as shown by their run of recent wins which has given them a chance of breaking back into the top four at the final hurdle. They have been winning games and scoring plenty of goals and I am not sure Sunderland are going to be able to offer enough resistance in this one.

Another poor performance on Saturday upset the locals as Sunderland were beaten by Swansea City at the Stadium of Light and a lack of goals has been an issue all season. They have failed to score in 6 of their last 8 away games in all competitions while Arsenal have kept clean sheets in their last 4 home Premier League games.

Instead of looking for Arsenal to cover a big handicap, I am looking for them to win this game with another clean sheet and I will back that at a decent enough price. The Gunners defence is far from watertight, but Sunderland's struggles in front of goal can't be ignored and I will back the home side to win the game and keep the clean sheet.


Manchester City v West Brom Pick: The West Brom players may have had a day extra to prepare for this fixture, but I think the players also put in an absolutely huge effort in their 0-1 home loss to Chelsea which would have taken away some of the energy in the legs.

That could be a big problem at Manchester City who remain a team who can create a lot of chances at home, but who look vulnerable at the back. I am not sure West Brom are going to have the belief to really have a go at Manchester City and will look to defend in numbers, but they put in so much mentally and physically against Chelsea that perhaps there isn't enough to contain a fast and exciting Manchester City attack.

A lack of clinical finishing does continue to disappoint Pep Guardiola but I think it could be a long evening for West Brom and better decisions in the final third will likely see Manchester City win with some comfort.

West Brom haven't been easy to beat away from home with 4 of their last 6 in the Premier League ending in draws, but around that you have seen heavy losses at Tottenham Hotspur, Everton and Watford. With the tiredness in the squad following Friday's efforts, I think they may struggle to avoid another heavy loss to Manchester City and I am going to back the home side to put themselves right on the brink of earning their place in the Champions League Group Stage with a convincing win on Tuesday.


Southampton v Manchester United Pick: There is next to nothing on the line for both Southampton and Manchester United in this make up game in the Premier League on Wednesday. Both Claude Puel and Jose Mourinho will make changes to the starting eleven to keep some freshness in the legs of the players and you can understand why the layers have made it odds on for fewer than three goals to be shared out.

Southampton have just been struggling for goals in recent Premier League games as fatigue and perhaps losing faith in Puel has taken hold.

On the other hand, Manchester United have been looking a little leggy down the stretch while the manager's proclamation of focusing on the Europa League has filtered down into the recent Manchester United performances in the Premier League.

It really might not be a great football game on Wednesday with both teams looking ahead to other issues and not having a full concentration on the fixture at hand. Perhaps that lack of focus means there could be a few lapses of concentration at the back, but both Southampton and Manchester United have shown defensive strength even when the attacking performances have not been up to the standard the fans would hope.

Games at St Mary's between these teams have usually been very entertaining in terms of goals scored. This one might go against the grain at this point of the season and I don't think there will be a lot of goals scored.

The 1-1 is a player, but I will be looking for one, or both, of these teams failing to score on Wednesday in what feels like it could be a real 'end of season feel' to the game.


Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This game does not have as much on the line as when the television networks asked for it to be played on a Thursday so it could be broadcast. Both Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur are ending the season with some positive momentum though and the freedom for the players to express themselves should mean this is an entertaining game.

Leicester City have some defensive problems which should be exploited by the talent that Tottenham Hotspur have in the final third. On the other hand, Leicester City have played very well at home under Craig Shakespeare and have won 5 straight League games here under him while scoring at least twice in each game.

The strong Tottenham Hotspur defence that has been in evidence at White Hart Lane has not been as effective away from home and so I do anticipate Leicester City will have some chances. They have been playing with more effectiveness under Shakespeare and looking more like the Leicester City that won the title last season.

Both teams should be willing to put in a full effort to win the game with nothing to lose and I think there will be three goals shared out in this fixture. I can see both teams scoring and someone should have the quality to get something more from the game and backing at least three goals to be scored looks the way forward.

MY PICKS: Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal Win to Nil @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Southampton-Manchester United Both Teams to Score- NO @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (May 16-18)

Southampton v Aston Villa Pick: The first game of the Premier League weekend should be an interesting one as Southampton have really picked up their form at home in recent weeks, while Aston Villa have given the likes of Manchester United and Manchester City something to think about in losing efforts at those grounds.

Wins at Sunderland and Tottenham Hotspur show how far Aston Villa have come when it comes to the mental side of the game and they are a team playing with confidence and belief that they can get a result anywhere.

I would expect both teams to try and get forward to score the goals to win this game and both have been doing that in recent weeks to give off the feeling that we will see goals in the game.

I'd likely favour Southampton because of their recent successes at St Mary's, but Aston Villa have been very dangerous in recent games. I would be surprised if Villa don't score at least once in this game and I am going to back there being at least three goals in this game.


Burnley v Stoke City Pick: The final home game of the season won't have the atmosphere that is typically associated with a relegated team as the Burnley fans are well aware that their team was limited, but have given their all through the season. There have been some special results for Burnley, including drawing at Chelsea and beating Manchester City at Turf Moor, but the team ultimately was short of goals and the necessary quality at this level.

Sean Dyche's attention may already have turned to next season and bringing in the players to ensure an immediate return to the Premier League, but he will want to end this season on a positive note. Avoiding bottom spot in the League table would be one such goal in mind and Burnley won't be rolling over for Stoke City even if they have been having a hard time scoring goals.

That might be an issue against a tough Stoke City team that will want a bit of revenge for a home loss to Burnley and who are also trying to finish as high as possible in the Premier League. Mark Hughes has been improving the way Stoke City have gone about their football and the team have responded with a top half of the table finish, which can be confirmed with a win on Saturday.

When thinking about it, I am finding it hard to see why Stoke City are the not the favourite to win this game aside from the Burnley team putting in a huge effort in their final home game. I don't expect it to be easy, but the lack of goals in the home team is a concern and Stoke City have been playing well in recent weeks, albeit not away from home.

They have lost 3 of their last 4 away games in the Premier League, but Stoke City are a big price to end their season on their travels with a victory. It has to be worth a small interest considering Burnley have had a tough time scoring goals at home in recent games and Stoke City can sneak the three points back down to the Brittania Stadium.


Sunderland v Leicester City Pick: If this game had been played last weekend, it would have been full of tension for both Sunderland and Leicester City, but I think the results have given the away side a little more freedom.

Sunderland may have pulled themselves out of the bottom three, but they are still in a dangerous position as a defeat here could potentially see them needing to earn results at either Arsenal or Chelsea to ensure they avoid the drop. That is a pressure situation for the home side, especially if they hear Hull City have the lead at White Hart Lane, while I think Leicester City have a lot of confidence and can play knowing they are almost safe.

It would take a real strange set of results for Leicester City to finish in the bottom three at this stage, but they won't want to go into the last day needing a result and Nigel Pearson will look for the points to secure top flight status on Saturday. His team have been scoring plenty of goals and you can't buy the confidence that comes from a run of 6 wins in 7 games.

Leicester City have won tough away games at West Brom and Burnley in that run too and the fact they have been scoring goals could give them the edge in this one.

I actually think the Foxes can win here and Sunderland may be looking for a favour or two from the likes of Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United to prevent Hull City overtaking them. You have to credit the steel with which Sunderland have been grinding out results as they use the experiences of twelve months ago to once again pull themselves out of a very sticky situation, but Leicester City are the team in form and can earn the three points.


Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: When the Sky television cameras decided to pitch up at Anfield for this game last month, they would have been expecting Liverpool to be firmly in the midst of challenging for a Champions League spot. However, the game doesn't have the same kind of feeling at all after Liverpool could only draw 1-1 at Chelsea last weekend and so the focus has shifted onto Steven Gerrard.

Gerrard plays his last game at Anfield for Liverpool this weekend and all of the attention is on him for this game, which has to be a real distraction to the players. The fact the Champions League is no out of reach is another issue the Liverpool players have to deal with as they look to the end of what has been a long and ultimately disappointing campaign for them.

And if Crystal Palace produce what they have in their recent losses at Chelsea and at home to Manchester United, they can take advantage of any lingering disappointment and frustration the home team might have. There is pace to burn in the forward areas for Crystal Palace and they should have a real chance to utilise the counter-attack that Alan Pardew prefers.

Any distraction or loss of focus in the home dressing room can be punished by Crystal Palace and I think Liverpool are a remarkably short price considering everything going on at the club.

Neither team has much to lose from this game, which can free players up in their minds, but Liverpool might be trying too hard to make this a memorable occasion for Steven Gerrard rather than trying to win the game. Of course they WANT to win, but Crystal Palace have the pace to expose what has been a soft underbelly and I like their chances to get something from this game.

It has to be worth a small interest in backing Crystal Palace on the English Handicap to avoid defeat at Anfield on Saturday.


Manchester United v Arsenal Pick: After some rough weeks with teams figuring out what Manchester United want to do, Louis Van Gaal had to be happy with the heart his team displayed in beating a Crystal Palace team that gave everything they could last weekend. That has put Manchester United all but into the Champions League for next season and now the focus turns to trying to steal 3rd place from under the noses of Arsenal.

This might be the kind of game that Manchester United need to get back to the form they showed to hammer Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester City in a small stretch of games. Unlike the likes of Chelsea and Everton, Arsenal are unlikely to do a man-marking job to stop Manchester United playing as Arsene Wenger has enough belief in his teams to outplay the opposition.

It just isn't in the Wenger make-up to try and stifle his opponents and he is much more comfortable allowing his own team to express themselves. For the most part in 2015, Arsenal have expressed themselves very well and even the loss to Swansea came because of a lack of composure in front of goal and former goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski having the game of his life.

If they create the same sort of chances at Old Trafford, it is unlikely that Arsenal will be as bad in front of goal for a second consecutive game. And Arsenal should have a chance to create those chances with the Manchester United defence still not 100% certain of keeping teams out unless David De Gea makes some fabulous saves as he did at Selhurst Park last weekend.

On the other hand, I am expecting Manchester United to have their success in front of goal too as Arsenal will give them a chance to play their game and create chances. Both Wayne Rooney and Robin Van Persie are expected to be available for selection so Manchester United should be capable of scoring goals and this could be an entertaining game on Sunday with plenty on the line.

Both games between Manchester United and Arsenal have featured goals this season and I will back there being at least three shared by the teams on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Southampton-Aston Villa Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 3.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Leicester City @ 2.80 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Crystal Palace + 1 English Handicap @ 2.70 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Manchester United-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

May Update: 6-12, - 9.66 Units (36 Units Staked, - 26.83% Yield)

April Final: 18-27-1, - 14.29 Units (83 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)
March Final: 30-18, + 30.66 Units (88 Units Staked, + 34.84% Yield)
February Final: 20-24-2, + 3.19 Units (75 Units Staked, + 4.25% Yield)
January Final: 10-22-1, - 10.54 Units (57 Units Staked, - 18.49% Yield)
December Final: 25-19-1, + 18.70 Units (81 Units Staked, + 23.09% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 148-189-5, - 9.86 Units (592 Units Staked, - 1.67% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2014 (May 17-18)

The last major piece of silverware to be decided in England is the FA Cup and the Final between Arsenal and Hull City will be back in the more traditional setting of coming at the end of the League season.

I was never a fan of sticking the Cup Final a week before the end of the season as the prestige of the competition took another blow with that decision, although I do wish they had stuck to the regular 3pm kick off instead of this 5pm one they have for the weekend (spare a thought for the Hull City fans who might actually be heading home after the game).

It might have worked out a lot better for the FA Cup Final if it had been set for the 3pm kick off slot because this game is going up against the final La Liga games of the season with the Barcelona versus Atletico Madrid match kicking off at the same time. Personally I would watch the FA Cup Final, for as long as it is competitive, over the La Liga game, but I have a feeling there will be plenty of neutrals who might not do the same thing.

Of course the game at the Nou Camp is essentially a 'Final' between the top two teams in the Spanish top flight, although one that can be won by Atletico Madrid as long as they avoid defeat. There will be a real confidence they can do that ahead of the big Champions League Final against their city rivals Real Madrid next weekend, but I believe that both of those games are going to end up being linked.

If Atletico were to lose the La Liga title this weekend after virtually having two hands on the trophy two weeks ago, I would fear for their chances of winning in Lisbon. However, win the title this weekend and the momentum would certainly be behind the side considering how off the boil Real Madrid have been following the win over Bayern Munich in the Champions League Semi Finals.


It was a good week for the picks that have improved the numbers from May and the season in general as both League One Play Off Semi Final second legs were won by the home team. That has set up two good Play Off Finals next weekend with the League Two Final being set by Saturday afternoon.

With the season winding down, there might only be a few picks left for May before the World Cup post will be created in the first week of June in preparation for the tournament that kicks off on June 12th.


Arsenal v Hull City FA Cup Final Pick: If games and Finals went the way they should on paper, Wigan Athletic would never have beaten Manchester City last season and that alone should keep Arsenal fans from counting their chickens before their eggs have hatched.

For the second year in a row, the FA Cup Final looks a mismatch on paper, but Arsenal are accustomed to failing to produce in a big moment when the team is expected to win and the memories of the League Cup Final loss to Birmingham City will still be fresh in the minds of the fans going to Wembley Stadium.

Arsenal were expected to waltz through Birmingham and I get a similar feeling that they are expecting something of the same in this one, but the tension of not winning a trophy for almost a decade will play its part. As much as players tell the media they don't listen to such statistics, the Arsenal players would have to be machines to not realise the importance of winning this game.

That will bring tension into the match, although the side will also feel they have a mental edge having dismissed Hull City twice already this season. Hull are also missing the likes of Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long and I am not convinced they will have enough of a goal threat to really cause Arsenal problems through the ninety minutes.

Hull City's biggest impact is likely to come from set pieces, but they haven't scored in either game against the Gunners and I think Arsenal are going to snap their run of nine years without a trophy. Backing Arsenal to win to nil in normal time looks the call for the game.


Barcelona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The maths for this game are very simple- if Barcelona win, the win the La Liga title, but if they fail to pick up the three points, it will be their opponents Atletico Madrid who will pick up the trophy on Saturday at the Nou Camp.

They may be back in the title race, but Barcelona haven't looked like a team that is on the same page in in the last few months and I think they are going to struggle to break down Diego Simeone's team.

It is the sixth time that Atletico and Barcelona will be meeting this season and four of the last five games have ended in draws with the sole exception coming in the Champions League Semi Final that was won by Atletico Madrid in the Vicente Calderon.

My gut feeling is that Atletico are going to make themselves hard enough to beat to earn the requisite result to win the title, although this game is likely to be a draw if they are to win the League.

MY PICKS: Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Barcelona-Atletico Madrid Draw @ 3.80 Pinnacle (1 Unit)

May Update: 11-12, + 4.80 Units (42 Units Staked, + 11.43% Yield)

April Final: 16-17, + 2.33 Units (58 Units Staked, + 4.02% Yield)
March Final: 26-22, + 13.94 Units (83 Units Staked, + 16.80% Yield)
February Final: 12-28, - 16.74 Units (61 Units Staked, - 27.44% Yield)
January Final: 17-24, - 3.18 Units (62 Units Staked, - 5.13% Yield)
December Final: 19-16-2, + 13.34 Units (66 Units Staked, + 20.21% Yield)
November Final: 17-19-1, + 0.50 Units (56 Units Staked, + 0.09% Yield)
October Final: 20-16-1, + 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, + 25.37% Yield)
September Final: 13-12, + 1.24 Units (39 Units Staked, + 3.18% Yield)
August Final: 13-26, - 12.13 Units (54 Units Staked, - 22.46% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 152-170-3, + 12.24 Units (530 Units Staked, + 2.31% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)