Weekend Football Picks 2017 (August 26-27)

This is the final round of domestic League games before the first international break of the 2017/18 season with the World Cup Qualifiers scheduled to be played from Thursday next week until the following Tuesday.

August can be a busy start to the new European season, but September is when things really start heating up with two rounds of Champions League/Europa League games as well as the Third Round of the League Cup and plenty of League football to be played too.


On Thursday the Champions League draw was made and there were six British clubs who were keenly awaiting news about who they will have to compete with over the next three months.

As a Manchester United fan I could not have been happier with Group A even if I have already made the point that both Benfica and Basel helped knock Manchester United out of the Group Stage in the 2011/12 season. However this Manchester United team have the European experience of winning the Europa League and they are playing with plenty of confidence and I would be stunned if there was a repeat.

In fact I really think Manchester United have to be thinking about winning the Group and earning a Seed for the Last 16 draw.

Chelsea were one of the top Seeds in the draw having won the Premier League title, but they would have hoped for better than having to deal with Atletico Madrid and Roma in the Group. As long as Antonio Conte can settle his differences with the power brokers at Stamford Bridge, you have to think Chelsea will have enough to move through to the Last 16 alongside Roma.

There were two English clubs in Pot 3 of the draw and there were mixed fortunes for Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur with the former entering what looks a winnable Group and the latter hoping to sneak through to the Last 16.

Liverpool should be too good for a Sevilla team who have lost some of their edge since the end of last season, Spartak Moscow and Maribor. They avoided the fate of Tottenham Hotspur who face both Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund in the Group, although I do think Spurs may be able to surprise Dortmund and finish above them in a tight section.

The final team from England in the draw was Manchester City who enjoyed a draw that looks as good as the one rivals Manchester United earned. Napoli could cause problems, but Manchester City will be expected to beat them to top of the Group with Shakhtar Donetsk one of the weaker Pot 1 clubs they could have faced.

Brendan Rodgers looks to have a difficult task in achieving the goal he has set for Celtic when he mentioned he wanted European Football after Christmas. Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain should dominate the Group and it will come down to whether Celtic can beat out Anderlecht for the Europa League spot that will be on offer.


Those matches in the Champions League are set to begin in the next two and a half weeks and I am looking forward to hearing the famous anthem at Old Trafford again. The Europa League draw will be made on Friday but I have this post ready to go before Arsenal and Everton find out their fate for the coming months ahead.

Both Arsenal and Everton should receive favourable draws to at least reach the Last 32, although Arsene Wenger has been less positive about the tournament than Ronald Koeman. That may change if Arsenal struggle domestically, but I wouldn't be surprised if much changed teams take to the field for the Europa League games to keep the starters ready for the Premier League.


The football picks from this weekend are coming from the Premier League fixtures with a single pick also from the Spanish top flight. Last weekend was a very difficult one, but hopefully I can end August with a flourish after a mixed start.


Bournemouth v Manchester City Pick: There was some decent football being played by Manchester City on Monday night, but I am not convinced the 3-5-2 system being favoured by Pep Guardiola is going to get the best out of the players he has. Leroy Sane being employed as a left wing back was a mistake which cost Manchester City as it was his error that set Everton off for their goal on Monday evening.

With Kyle Walker suspended, Manchester City may decide to play a back four on Saturday as they look to bounce back to winning ways ahead of the international break. I said on the opening weekend that playing away from home may favour Manchester City more with the extra space they tend to be afforded and that is certainly the case when they come up against Bournemouth.

Eddie Howe has to be credited for sticking to his principles, but Bournemouth can be a side that the top teams find ‘easy’ to play against. I don’t think it is a big surprise they lost to half of the teams that finished above them at the Vitality Stadium and in another game Bournemouth trailed Liverpool 1-3 before fighting back for a 4-3 win.

Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester United all scored at least three times here in League games last season and both Manchester clubs as well as Chelsea won by a couple of goals.

The poor start made by Bournemouth will have shaken some of the confidence and I do think Manchester City are good enough to take advantage. They will have the majority of the play and I anticipate Manchester City will create enough chances in the final third to ultimately win this one fairly comfortably to open the Premier League weekend.

Under Guardiola Manchester City have played 20 away Premier League games and won half of those by at least a two goal margin. I expect Bournemouth will cause some problems, but the space they will likely afford Manchester City can see the latter win here for the third season in a row and by at least a two goal margin for the third year in a row.


Huddersfield Town v Southampton Pick: Things could not have gone better for David Wagner and his newly promoted Huddersfield Town side in the opening month of the new season. Putting another win on the board on Saturday would mean Huddersfield Town are almost a quarter of the way to the 40 point mark which has to be the aim for the club in their bid to avoid relegation.

Being able to get three wins on the board in the opening month of the season would be huge for Huddersfield Town to build confidence. We have seen how important it is to put the points in the bank as early as possible and Huddersfield Town look settled.

It should be said that they are going to face more challenging opponents than the likes of Crystal Palace and Newcastle United the rest of the way. Even though Southampton are learning new methods of Mauricio Pellegrino, this is an established Premier League side who will be looking for a top half finish.

With that in mind, this is the biggest test so far for Huddersfield Town and it will be interesting to see how they do going forward. The Saints have a decent defence, even if they haven’t shown that this past week, but goals continue to be a problem for them.

Now they have to unlock a hard working Huddersfield Town team who will press from the front and then tighten the space at the back to make life as difficult as possible for their opponents. The pressure at the front is designed to create mistakes, but Southampton are an experienced team and I think this is going to be a tight match.

Southampton away games tended to feature plenty of goals last season, but generally this is a team that will try and make themselves difficult to beat. The lack of goals to open the season has to be a concern and Huddersfield Town won’t make things easy for their visitors.

On the other hand I do think Huddersfield Town still need to improve in the final third to build on their opening two League wins and this is one of the tougher defences in the League. Putting those factors together I think there may not be a lot of goals shared out on Saturday and I will back fewer than three goals to be produced from this fixture.


Newcastle United v West Ham United Pick: Two managers who are under pressure and two teams who are searching for their first Premier League points of the 2017/18 season will meet on Saturday in a big game at St James’ Park. It is perhaps ironic that Rafael Benitez, the current Newcastle United manager, is also the favourite to take over at West Ham United if they dispense with Slaven Bilic.

That means a win for Newcastle United could mean they lose their manager to West Ham United who would perhaps decide to move on from Bilic. On the other hand a win for The Hammers might see Benitez walk away from a job where he clearly feels the current squad is not good enough to avoid the drop back into the Championship.

It is going to be a tough environment to play in on Saturday after Newcastle United were beaten by Nottingham Forest in the League Cup. The fans have big demands for their club and while they have not turned on the manager, Benitez has to be questioned for giving the current squad so little confidence.

There is only so many times players can be told they are not good enough for this level before they either down tools or struggle to cope mentally knowing a mistake will be highlighted.

That lack of confidence makes Newcastle United a dangerous favourite in this fixture and the West Ham United win over Cheltenham Town will help ease some pressure on Slaven Bilic. The loss at Southampton last weekend came after West Ham United showed plenty of character with ten men and the returns of Manuel Lanzini and Andy Carroll would provide a huge boost.

Despite losing their opening 2 away games in the Premier League, West Ham United have proved to be one of the better away teams in this Division over the last couple of years. They have been very good when playing those teams in the bottom half and West Ham United showed enough last week to think they can get something here.

Newcastle United have won their last 2 home games against West Ham United, but this is a squad that looks short of quality. They will pose problems for a defence that has conceded 7 goals in 2 away League games, but West Ham United have shown they have goals in the side and the boost of having Lanzini and Carroll could see them upset Newcastle United.

I will take the start on the Asian Handicap with the East London club on Saturday.


Watford v Brighton Pick: The international break is coming up after this round of games in the Premier League and it is an important one for all those teams searching for their first points of the season. Brighton are one of those teams and a newly promoted side could lose some heart the longer they have to wait to get off the mark in the top flight.

Chris Hughton has experience managing at this level and Brighton are surely going to give the manager time to get things right. The fixtures at the start of the season could have been kinder for Brighton, but they have to show more intent in the final third.

They are facing a Watford team who have defensive injuries and suspensions to deal with this weekend. That may give Brighton a chance to earn a surprising win here although Marco Silva has shown he can get the best out limited squads in his time with Hull City.

Silva helped them become a very strong home team and I think he will make Watford a very difficult place to come and play. Liverpool found that out on the opening day and there is enough quality in the final third to paper over the defensive problems in this game.

Watford may have been beaten by Bristol City here in the League Cup, but they were very impressive last week in a win over Bournemouth. The defeat in the League Cup came with a much changed starting eleven and won’t overly concern Silva, and a similar level of performance to last weekend should put Watford in a strong position to win this match.

There does seem to be a more attacking threat in the Watford ranks at the moment and I expect that to help The Hornets earn another three points in a strong start to their Premier League season.

Brighton will work hard and try and make life difficult for the home team, but I do think Watford may have a little too much for them. A lack of bite in the final third has to be rectified going forward, but we may not see that happen until after the international break and I will back Watford to win their first home game of the season.


Manchester United v Leicester City Pick: One of the most positive early season performances from Manchester United last season was the 4-1 hammering of Leicester City at Old Trafford. In fact that may have been one of the best performances at Old Trafford throughout the campaign and fans may be expectant on Saturday to at least match the number of goals scored having seen Manchester United score four in each of their first couple of Premier League games.

Add in the fact that Leicester City conceded four times in a 4-3 loss at Arsenal and goals look to be on the cards.

However it may not all be one way traffic with Leicester City continuing to play at a decent level under Craig Shakespeare. They have gone back to the direct style that took them to the Premier League title two years ago and the players look much happier than they were six months ago.

Goals haven’t been a problem for Leicester City this season with at least two produced in every game they have played. This is a different test considering how Manchester United have defended so far, but I think it could be the most difficult game Manchester United have played so far.

With the pace of Jamie Vardy up front, Leicester City will hope to turn Manchester United around on the counter, but containing them will be a tough task all the same. Manchester United have played with a confidence that wasn’t always evident last season and I do feel like the team as a whole is in a much better place than even at the end of last season when they won the Europa League.

I would expect Leicester City to pose a lot more questions than either West Ham United or Swansea City managed in Manchester United’s first two games. They may even score, but Leicester City have still got a few questions to answer defensively with key players perhaps not at full health.


Manchester United in the mood they have been in should be able to take advantage as Arsenal did and Old Trafford could see another ‘comfortable’ win as I look for Manchester United to cover the Asian Handicap here.


Chelsea v Everton Pick: This has the feeling of being another Premier League game where both sides will have their opportunities to earn the vital three points. While Chelsea will be feeling a lot better after winning at Wembley Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur, Everton have drawn back to back away games 1-1 this week and shown they can be defensively organised against opponents.

They have still to prove they can handle the better teams consistently after earning a 1-1 draw at Manchester City on Monday night. A third away game in a short space of time is difficult though and it will be interesting to see how the players respond.

Everton didn't play well against Chelsea last season with heavy defeats suffered both home and away. They are facing a team that are without Eden Hazard and Diego Costa, but Cesc Fabregas is back from suspension and The Blues looked very comfortable last weekend despite the injuries.

Chelsea will be a threat going forward, but I still think they are a little short defensively with the injuries and lack of depth an issue. There is the chance Everton can earn something on the counter attack, but they may need to ride their luck like they did at the Etihad Stadium on Monday night.

Ronald Koeman's men showed they can be effective on the counter, but Chelsea should create some chances of their own. Everton games have not featured a lot of goals in the 2017/18 season but the last two games between these teams at Stamford Bridge have featured at least three goals shared out.

The new signings made by Everton gives them a better squad depth and they will be tough to beat over the course of the season. However this match is coming at a time of the season where Everton have had three tough away games in the space of seven days and I think that may contribute to a Chelsea win.

Chelsea have won 5 of their last 6 home games against Everton and could take advantage of any early season fatigue that could have built up over the last seven days. I will back Chelsea on the Asian Handicap in this one.


West Brom v Stoke City Pick: Both West Brom and Stoke City have surprised early in the new Premier League season and both will head into the opening live game of Sunday with some confidence and momentum. While The Baggies have won 3 in a row, Stoke City have bounced back from an opening weekend defeat to beat Arsenal and Rochdale at the Bet365 Stadium.

Playing away from home is a different test for Stoke City though and they have lost 4 of their last 6 away Premier League games going back to last season. They are also facing a West Brom team who played very well at The Hawthorns last season up until they were past the 40 point mark in the League.

While that did mean a disappointing end to the season, the players have shown they can pick themselves up and go again with the performances early in this season.

Defensively they look sounder than Stoke City have and West Brom do have the quality from set pieces to cause problems for their visitors.

This is unlikely to be the prettiest of games, but Tony Pulis has found a way to get past his former club since moving on to Crystal Palace and West Brom. The Baggies have won 4 of 5 games against Stoke City since Pulis took over as manager and that includes 3 wins in a row at home.

Pulis also guided Crystal Palace to a home win over Stoke City in his short time with The Eagles and I think West Brom are playing well enough to keep the trend going. Stoke City had to ride their luck at times against Arsenal before securing the win and they will likely need to do the same here.

I can’t imagine this being the most entertaining game, but it should be a fascinating tactical battle. Tony Pulis has shown he can win those against his former club and I will back West Brom to make it four wins from four in August as they go into the international break with real confidence.


Liverpool v Arsenal Pick: The first game on Sunday may not be the most appealing for the neutrals, but the last live Premier League game before the international break should be a cracker.

Both Liverpool and Arsenal may be in the news because of two players who want to leave each club respectively, but the managers are trying to focus on what is happening on the field.

To that end Liverpool have been more successful with 3 wins from 4 games in August and remaining unbeaten. On the other hand, Arsenal are coming in following a loss at Stoke City and the reminder they are not playing in the Champions League with the Group Stage draw being made on Thursday.

There is enough attacking talent in the Arsenal squad to feel they can give Liverpool some trouble when they do have the ball, and the return of Laurent Koscielny will bolster Arsenal’s defences. However they will have to be a lot better than they have been in the opening two weeks of the season against a Liverpool team who can be rampant at Anfield and who have played well against the top Premier League clubs over the last twelve months.

Liverpool did win 7 of their 12 League games against the top seven last season and they were unbeaten in all of those. They won 4 of 6 at Anfield and did the League double over an Arsenal side who lost 5 of 6 at the top seven last season.

Even without Philippe Coutinho and with Alexis Sanchez potentially returning for Arsenal, I still lean towards Liverpool to use their August momentum for the victory. Goals also shouldn’t be in short supply with both teams looking much better going forward than they have looked defensively and even the returning Koscielny may not be enough for The Gunners to show vast improvement.

The last 4 at Anfield between these clubs have seen Liverpool unbeaten with at least three goals shared out each time. While I do think Liverpool win this game, and they are a decent price to do that, goals are likely to arrive in the fixture too.

The layers aren’t giving away anything when it comes to at least three goals shared out. But I do think backing Liverpool to win a high-scoring game at an attractive price is more tempting than simply backing Liverpool to win the game.

The bigger price is appealing as I simply don’t imagine this game finishing without at least three goals and that is the way I will go this weekend.


Tottenham Hotspur v Burnley Pick: This feels like a really big game for Tottenham Hotspur as they look to prove that the move to Wembley Stadium for one season is not going to be one that affects their League performances. While there will be a factor of not playing at White Hart Lane, no one in the Tottenham Hotspur dressing room will be thinking about a ‘Wembley Curse’.

Tottenham Hotspur have lost 4 of 6 games at the National Stadium in the last twelve months, but those losses have come against Monaco, Bayer Leverkusen and Chelsea twice. Better finishing last week and Tottenham Hotspur may have earned a result against Chelsea, but that list of losses also shows Tottenham Hotspur will face ‘easier’ tests than the ones they have failed to overcome.

They did beat CSKA Moscow 3-1 here in the Champions League before a 2-2 draw with Gent, but factors have been in play in the games Tottenham Hotspur have lost. They were better than Leverkusen and against Chelsea in the FA Cup Semi Final, while Tottenham Hotspur were down to ten men against Gent.

These are factors that should eventually turn in their favour and I think Tottenham Hotspur will begin that this weekend. The space at Wembley Stadium may make it difficult for Burnley to defend in the numbers they would like to in these games and this is a team that struggled when facing the best teams on their travels last season.

Burnley’s win at Chelsea came down to the home team losing a couple of players and some stunning finishes. This is not something Burnley can rely on in every away game they play and I think Tottenham Hotspur get the better of them.

Sean Dyche’s team work hard and they are rarely beaten comfortably. Only 6 of their 14 away losses last season came by more than a single goal margin, but I think Tottenham Hotspur may be due a really big performance at Wembley to put talk of a ‘curse’ to rest.

More than half of Tottenham Hotspur’s home wins in the League came by more than a single goal margin and I think they will be too strong on Sunday. With the talent in the final third, Tottenham Hotspur can wear down Burnley with the additional space in this Stadium and I will look for Spurs to cover the Asian Handicap.


Alaves v Barcelona Pick: There seems like there is plenty of upheaval at Barcelona at the moment and it feels the players are not as happy as they once were at the club. Neymar's departure has highlighted that and the players look to be backing their former teammate when it comes to the legal situation developing after Barcelona moved to sue the Brazilian for breaching his contract.

This does not make for good reading going into the new season and Barcelona's failure to prise Philippe Coutinho away from Liverpool won't have helped so far. The club just doesn't feel as strong as they did twelve months ago and Barcelona look to have fallen behind Real Madrid both at home and in Europe.

While that is the case, Barcelona still look the second best club in Spain and they still have Lionel Messi which makes them a dangerous opponent on their day. They are facing an Alaves team this weekend who have lost a successful manager this summer and who have been seeing a lot of players both come and go from the club.

That may mean it will take time for Alaves to gel together after overachieving in the 2016/17 season and they were beaten comfortably by Barcelona in their last couple of games last season. Barcelona might be missing key players in Andres Iniesta and Luis Suarez, but there is enough talent here to get the job done and I do think Barcelona win here.

They have managed that 3 times in a row at Alaves and last season Barcelona were 0-6 winners here. I would be stunned if they win by that many again, but I do think they can cover the Asian Handicap in a victory here and I am going to back the Catalan giants to do that.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet365 (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Southampton Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
West Ham United + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom @ 2.45 William Hill (2 Units)
Liverpool to Win & Over 2.5 Total Goals @ 2.90 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)

August Update: 25-29, - 6.97 Units (88 Units Staked, - 7.92% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (August 19-21)

The second week of the new Premier League season begins on Saturday lunchtime and will be played through to Monday night.

This week is a big one with the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage draws being made on Thursday and Friday respectively and then we get into the final round of domestic League matches before the two international break as the World Cup Qualifiers reach the business end throughout the world.

I hate that international break so soon into the new season, and teams could be trying to gel new faces that have been signed before the transfer window closed. After the long wait for football it feels like we should be allowed to really get our teeth into the new season before having another break, but it does mean the matches will be coming thick and fast in September.


This weekend also sees the beginning of domestic football in the other major European Leagues with Germany, Italy and Spain all getting underway.

It should mean a fun weekend with some top matches to come as we get to see all the top teams in action.


Before we get onto the picks, I will mention the short piece written about Manchester United before the season started. You can read that here and the weekend picks follow below.


Swansea City v Manchester United Pick: You don't want to read too much into the opening weekend of a new Premier League season when results can be a little funny as some teams will naturally be further along with their preparation than others. However Swansea City are going to need to be a lot better than they were last weekend if they are going to contain this Manchester United side.

The goalless draw at Southampton may be seen in a positive for the simple fact that Paul Clement's men earned a point from the game. However Southampton had enough chances to win two games of football and only a lack of composure in front of goal prevented them doing that.

Not many will accuse Manchester United of a lack of composure after ripping apart West Ham United at Old Trafford last Sunday. No one will be patting themselves on the back though and Jose Mourinho will know there is room for improvement which I expect Manchester United to make the more the team gels together in the months ahead.

The goals scored by Romelu Lukaku will give him plenty of confidence though and the likes of Anthony Martial and Paul Pogba adding goals will be encouraging to Manchester United too. The attacking players at the Liberty Stadium should be encouraged if Swansea City defend as poorly as they did at times at Southampton and I do worry for the home team unless they can make some significant transfer moves before the summer transfer window closes.

Swansea City lost Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton this week and Fernando Llorente is expected to miss out which takes away big attacking options for the home team. They didn't threaten Southampton enough and Manchester United have a strong defensive shape which should lay the foundation for success here.

The home team were beaten by 5 of the top 6 here last season and 4 of those losses have come by at least a couple of goals. 8 of Manchester United's 10 away Premier League wins came by that margin too and I will look for Jose Mourinho's men to make it two wins out of two on Saturday and in impressive fashion too.


Leicester City v Brighton Pick: The last two years have given Leicester City the kind of rollercoaster ride their fans could never have imagined. In fact no one in football would have picked Leicester City as Premier League Champions and then following that up with a run to the Champions League Quarter Final, the best any English club did in the Champions League last season.

Expectations are in a funny place going into the season but most would probably be looking for a top half finish and perhaps a strong run in one of the domestic Cup competitions. Leicester City will also hope to maintain the strong home form of the last couple of seasons which have seen them win 22 of 38 Premier League games here.

Last season Leicester City beat all but one of the teams that finished in the bottom half at the King Power Stadium and they will be confident they can get off the mark for the new season here. Of those 8 wins against teams in the bottom half, Leicester City were able to win 6 of them by at least a couple of goals as their home form proved critical to avoid any relegation concerns.

The Foxes will be hoping to continue the dominance of teams in the bottom half at home when they face Brighton this weekend as the newly promoted side are expected to be fighting to avoid relegation for much of the coming season. Brighton were given a lesson by Manchester City last weekend as to how tough life can be in the Premier League and now they have to head to Leicester City which has proved to be one of the stronger home teams in the Division over the last couple of years.

The layers seem to have recognised that with the price on offer for a Leicester City win, but I will look to back them on the Asian Handicap. A one goal win will offer a profit, but a win by a wider margin could provide solid profits and Leicester City showed last season they can beat the 'lesser' teams in the Premier League at home by comfortable margins.

The goals scored last week will give Leicester City more belief although they will feel they can handle Brighton's attack much better than they did against Arsenal. I will look for The Foxes to come through with a relatively comfortable win on the day and perhaps send Chris Hughton and Brighton searching for further squad members ahead of the transfer window closing.


Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: A big week is coming up for Liverpool with three games in a row at Anfield which can see them make a really positive start to the new Premier League season as well as earn them a place in the Champions League Group Stage. Jurgen Klopp would love to have complete focus on that, but the Philippe Coutinho situation looks likely to continue to dominate his press conferences despite the obvious irritation the German has towards that line of questioning.

At least Liverpool are coming into the weekend off a really positive win in Hoffenheim during the week to erase the memory of the 3-3 draw with Watford which saw Liverpool concede a late equaliser. The attacking performances in both fixtures will give the fans plenty to be excited about, but defensively Liverpool still look way short of the standards you would expect.

Set pieces have been a real bugbear for Klopp's Liverpool to deal with and Crystal Palace do have the size and quality to expose that vulnerable underbelly of the Liverpool defence. However Frank de Boer's new system is going to take some time for the players to be comfortable in and they showed that in their heavy loss to Huddersfield Town last weekend.

David Wagner is from the same school of thought as his 'best man' Klopp and I expect Liverpool to press from the front and look to exploit mistakes in the Crystal Palace passing game as Huddersfield Town did. With the added quality Liverpool have in the final third, I think there is every chance Liverpool can punish The Eagles as effectively as Huddersfield Town did and it could be a long day in the office for the visitors.

Losing Wilfried Zaha takes away a real counter attacking threat from Crystal Palace and I would be really surprised if they could make it four Premier League wins in a row at Anfield. Christian Benteke hurt his former club last season with two goals here, but he will need better all around service than last week and I think Liverpool will be too good on the day.

Even without Coutinho Liverpool have shown they can create chances and score goals and I expect them to do that here at Anfield. The home side can get this week off to a perfect start as Liverpool expose a Crystal Palace still getting settled into Frank de Boer's system and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Southampton v West Ham United Pick: There is plenty of room for improvement for both Southampton and West Ham United after their opening weekend performances in the Premier League. It will be Mauricio Pellegrino who is feeling better than Slaven Bilic going into the week, but there definitely feels like there was more expectation at West Ham United than Southampton.

Having to reverse fixtures due to the athletics at the London Stadium is not ideal for West Ham United even if they have been one of the better away sides in the Premier League over the last two seasons. After the thumping at Manchester United, Bilic may have wanted to get back home in front of their own supporters, but this is out of his hands now.

West Ham United do have a solid enough recent record at St Mary’s and you have to expect an all around better defensive performance than the one produced last Sunday. They will need that as I can’t see Southampton lacking as much composure in the final third as they did in their goalless draw with Swansea City.

It may have been a pretty easy day in the office for Southampton if their strikers had not left their shooting boots on a beach somewhere over the summer. In fact it has been longer than that as Southampton have now failed to score in 6 consecutive home Premier League games which makes it very hard to trust them here.

The odds on quote looks to be all about how the teams have been perceived to have performed last weekend with Southampton a little unfortunate and West Ham United outplayed. However the early weeks of a new season can see performances fluctuate wildly and these teams are perhaps more evenly matched than the layers think.

Southampton as an odds on favourite shouldn’t appeal with the struggles in front of goal, although they created enough chances to be respected. Defensively they have looked sound for the most part and a West Ham United side without Manuel Lanzini may not have the guile to break The Saints down, even without Virgil Van Dijk to call upon.

It feels like this is going to be a close match between these teams and one goal may be enough to decide with the current shyness in front of goal. Picking a winner doesn’t look straight forward but backing two or fewer goals to be shared out looks the call.

Before last season, 5 consecutive games between Southampton and West Ham United on the south coast ended with two or fewer goals and I will look for that trend to get going again on Saturday.


Stoke City v Arsenal Pick: You could almost hear the rustling of paper and cardboard being put away frantically when Arsenal took the lead against Leicester City late in the game last weekend. A vocal minority may have been ready to blast Arsene Wenger and the team when trailing 2-3, but there are more positives which come after a 4-3 opening weekend win.

That hasn’t stopped the layers putting the Arsenal price on the drift this weekend with the poor defending looking like it may play into the Stoke City hands. Set pieces proved to be a real achilles heel for the Arsenal defence last week and that is one area where you would think Stoke City will be able to cause plenty of panic.

Per Mertesacker’s likely availability will help Arsenal, but they have to defend better as a unit if they are going to avoid a defeat here. However if they can get the defending right from set pieces, visiting Stoke City isn’t as daunting as it once was and Arsenal could win here.

They did that very effectively at the end of last season with a 1-4 win here and Arsenal will feel they have the attacking threats to hurt Stoke City even without Alexis Sanchez. Last week they scored four goals from four different sources and Stoke City were massively outplayed by Everton while looking short of confidence.

Mark Hughes is likely to be active in the transfer window over the next couple of weeks, but this current Stoke City squad look short. The change in style means it has become easier to play here for the big clubs and Hughes has to be concerned that Stoke City didn’t beat any team at home that finished above them in the Premier League table.

In fact Stoke City had just 1 win overall against a team that finished higher in the League table and were beaten by the top 5 here at the Bet365 Stadium. They have usually caused plenty of problems for Arsenal but a weaker looking squad that may be short of confidence and only three months ago took a beating from The Gunners is perhaps ripe for the taking.

There is every chance this price drifts a little more to become even more attractive, but I will lock in Arsenal now and back them to win for a second season in a row at a venue they haven’t enjoyed too much.


Huddersfield Town v Newcastle United Pick: A lot of teams will struggle to beat Tottenham Hotspur this season, but Newcastle United fans have to be worried about the standard of the current squad at the club. After earning promotion last season, there was a hope that huge investment would be made but both Rafa Benitez and the fans have been disappointed.

Moves may be made before the end of the transfer window, but this current squad looks short of the standard required in the Premier League. It was the main reason I picked Newcastle United to be one of the sides relegated from the Premier League this season and there has to be a concern that confidence has been knocked ahead of this second game of the season.

The match with Huddersfield Town may be more to Newcastle United's liking when you think how well they played against Championship opposition for much of last season. They won here in the second half of the season which was a part of their best away record in the Division and Newcastle United will feel they can create chances against a Huddersfield Town that will push forward to score the goals to win games.

However Newcastle United have to remember Huddersfield Town had the energy to beat them at St James' Park twelve months ago and the high press worked wonders that day. David Wagner's tactics created errors in the Crystal Palace game which helped Huddersfield Town win comfortably and they will feel they can expose the injuries in the Newcastle United defence.

Jonjo Shelvey's ridiculously selfish sending off has shorn Newcastle United of some of their better quality players and you can see why the home team are favoured. However Newcastle United played well away from home against the top teams which included winning in Brighton and here and they showed they can create chances in those games.

I do expect a more positive approach from Newcastle United than the one they had last Sunday and I expect the players to be more comfortable against the level they face this week. I also think Huddersfield Town will be very positive in the tactics that David Wagner will send his team out with and this could make this a more exciting game than the layers are anticipating.

Both League games between the two teams featured at least three goals last season and I will look for a positive approach from both teams to see that outcome reached at a big price this weekend.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: When the fixture list came out in June this was obviously the biggest game in the Premier League in the second week of the new season. Unsurprisingly it was quickly snapped up for television coverage, although Chelsea do come in with more problems than most would envision for the defending Champions.

Injury and suspension have shorn Chelsea of some of their key players, while Diego Costa has been ostracised and decided he won’t even return to the training ground. Selling off players like Nemanja Matic have upset Antonio Conte who has been desperate in calling for reinforcements before the transfer window closes.

All in all this has made Chelsea look vulnerable and the 2-3 home defeat to Burnley would have been another shock to the system.

The question is are Chelsea on the brink of imploding as they did in Jose Mourinho’s final season two years ago, or can Conte right the ship?

I think the latter will eventually occur once some of these early season injuries and suspensions clear up, and I do expect Chelsea to be active in the transfer market in the next two weeks. However this fixture may come a little too soon for The Blues and I am expecting Tottenham Hotspur to take advantage.

Tottenham Hotspur were not at their fluid best at Newcastle United last weekend until Jonjo Shelvey saw the red mist descend, but you can’t worry too much about performances in the early stages of a season. They have the more settled starting line up who will be familiar with the jobs expected of them and I think that makes more of a difference than anything else this weekend.

Obviously playing at Wembley Stadium rather than White Hart Lane changes some of the dynamics of the fixture, but this may be the best way for the players to believe in their new ‘home’ by winning their opening League fixture here.

I don’t want to read too much into Chelsea’s loss to Burnley when everything seemed to conspire against them. However losing Gary Cahill and Cesc Fabregas to suspension is a big blow for Antonio Conte and I think some unfamiliarity with the new partnerships at the heart of the defence and midfield goes against them.

I do think Chelsea have a reaction, but Tottenham Hotspur look the more settled squad and I will look for them to win this fixture at odds against.


Manchester City v Everton Pick: Last weekend we opened the Premier League season with the first Friday Night Football of the season and this weekend we have the first Monday Night Football. It looks a good game on paper and one that will perhaps show what we are going to come to expect from Manchester City and a new look Everton team during the course of the season.

There has been a lot of talk about the improvement Everton have made, but I will be honest and say I would be surprised if they finished in the top six. It would need one of those clubs to really have a poor season, like Chelsea did two years ago, for that to happen and I don’t believe this Everton starting eleven is better than the one they had back in May.

Gylfi Sigurdsson is a good purchase, but I struggle to see him getting into the first eleven of any of the teams that finished above Everton last season.

With that in mind I think Everton may have to settle for a decent Cup run or two and another 7th placed finish in the Premier League. I think that could be highlighted here against a Manchester City team who look strong and with options for Pep Guardiola which is going to make it tough to contain them for the full ninety minutes.

Manchester City won’t have a cakewalk to the Premier League title, because no team really achieves that, but I think they will be much improved from last season if everyone remains fit and healthy.

The big failure for Manchester City last season was the fact they beat only 1 of the top 8 clubs at the Etihad Stadium. However the performances in those games does bode well for them and a little better composure in front of goal and things would have looked a lot brighter for them. Keeping Vincent Kompany fit is huge for them but I do expect better from Manchester City in the big games this time around.

Everton were beaten at 6 of the top 9 clubs last season and half of those losses came by at least two goals. They are an organised team under Koeman which can make Everton tough to beat, but I am expecting the Manchester City pressure to pay off in this one and the home team can wear down their visitors.

I am expecting Manchester City to massively improve the home scoring this time around and I will look for them to beat Everton by a couple of goals in this one.


Bristol City v Millwall Pick: The Championship is already proving how highly competitive it is going to be this season and I have struggled to find any picks I am confident about from the fourth round of fixtures this weekend.

At this stage a watching brief can be the best way forward as teams continue to find new faces to bring in with the transfer window still a couple of weeks away.

The one pick that did stand out comes from Ashton Gate where Bristol City will host Millwall in what feels like could be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend. Both Lee Johnson and Neil Harris like to see their teams go forward in search of goals and so far both Bristol City and Millwall have responded.

However neither has looked completely sure of themselves at the back and that should mean chances are created throughout this match. Millwall’s lack of composure against Nottingham Forest in their one away game this season is a concern with some gilt-edged chances missed in that one, but they have since scored 6 goals in 3 home games.

Bristol City have managed at least two goals in 3 of their 4 games this season, but have also only kept a single clean sheet.

With both teams likely circling this kind of fixture as one they ‘can win’, I will look for an exciting, attacking game to develop and at least three goals shared out between them.


Girona v Atletico Madrid Pick: The opening games in every League around Europe can be difficult for every club with the fitness issues meaning the differences in quality between clubs might not always show up.

We do get surprise results and you have to be wary of those, but I do think Atletico Madrid will be too good for the new boys Girona especially having kept Diego Simeone and Antoine Griezmann around.

The transfer ban is a problem in terms of Atletico being able to get closer to Real Madrid and Barcelona domestically, but they still look to be the third best team in Spain.

I expect their continuity will help early in the season and I do think Atletico Madrid will have a little too much experience for Girona to deal with. Girona have worked wonders to make their debut season in the Primera Division and being linked with Manchester City may mean some key players arrive before the transfer window closes to aid them in staying in this Division.

That has to be the only goal for Girona this season, but they are not coming up with a lot of momentum having struggled down the stretch in the Segunda Division. Some of that may have been down to feeling the pressure of earning promotion, but I do wonder if they will be able to compete with the higher level of the Primera Division.

Facing a side who pride themselves on being defensively organised will be a challenge for Girona and Atletico Madrid have had 21 clean sheets in their last 38 away League games.

I expect they can get another one here and I will look for Atletico Madrid to open their season with a narrow win. That should be based on a clean sheet too and I will back Atletico at odds against to win with one of those in the pocket.


Deportivo v Real Madrid Pick: The absence of Cristiano Ronaldo didn’t bother Real Madrid as they brushed Barcelona aside for the second time in a number of days in the Spanish Super Cup. A team who has won four trophies in their last five games has to be full of confidence even without their talisman and Real Madrid are strong favourites to get their season off to a positive start in the Primera Division.

It’s hard to see Deportivo really being able to stay with Real Madrid even if they did beat Barcelona here last season. This is a team who have generally been struggling since returning to the top flight and I am not sure this season is going to be much different for them.

Deportivo were able to raise their game against the top clubs last season, but they have not been able to compete with Real Madrid who bring plenty of firepower to the table.

That feels like being the difference again even if the layers are not so sure without Ronaldo playing. I still think Real Madrid have enough talent to win here by a couple of goals for the fourth season in a row since Deportivo returned to the top flight.

Real Madrid have had competitive matches under their belt which should mean they are to ready to come out of the traps in the Primera Division and they may catch Deportivo out here. The chances Real Madrid create should ensure they have every chance of covering the Asian Handicap on the opening weekend of the season and I will back the current Spanish and European Champions to do that.

MY PICKS: Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Southampton-West Ham United Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bristol City-Millwall Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)

August 2017/18 Update: 14-14-2, + 0.92 Units (42 Units Staked, + 2.19% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (August 26-28)

The Champions League and Europa League Group Stage draws have taken place ahead of the weekend football and that means the next few months of the football season are now in place.

All of the English clubs in the Champions League should be very happy with the draw made on Thursday and I think all four should be thinking of making it through to the Second Round.

The toughest draw looks to be handed out to Manchester City yet again despite improving their co-efficient to be involved in Pot 2, but facing Barcelona, Borussia Monchengladbach and Celtic in the Group should still be manageable. Of course Barcelona are a difficult test, but the other two teams should not be able to match the quality Manchester City have.

Arsenal also have been handed a draw with one of the big teams in the Champions League as they face Paris Saint-Germain in the Group. However it has to be said that Paris Saint-Germain are perhaps not as strong as last season, while both Basel and Ludogorets should not be able to stun one of the top two Seeds.

For a team in the third pot, Tottenham Hotspur could not have asked for a much better drawn than CSKA Moscow, Bayer Leverkusen and Monaco and I think they have every chance of winning the Group. Experience is the biggest concern for Tottenham Hotspur, but they should have enough to win all three games at Wembley Stadium and a couple of away draws would likely be enough for first place.

Finally the Champions Leicester City have also escaped a really tough Group and they should be good enough to join Porto in reaching the Second Round. I can see Leicester City winning the Group because I think their style of play will lead to chances to win away games against Porto, Copenhagen and Club Brugge and Claudio Ranieri's men might surprise at the higher level.

There still seems to be some unbalance to the draw in the Champions League though as we have sections with the likes of Man City/Barcelona, Arsenal/PSG, Real Madrid/Borussia Dortmund, Atletico Madrid/Bayern Munich and Juventus/Sevilla, but others that don't even have one team you would consider a potential winner of the competition.

On Friday the Champions League is going to be revamped in time for the 2017/18 season and so perhaps we will see some changes that makes sure the Group Stage is either highly competitive throughout, or distributing the big teams a little thinner. That would be good news for the super powers of European football although a real chance to go back to the days when the Group Stage was nothing more than a simple task from which the top teams could qualify for the next Round.


The Europa League draw was also made and you have to say for a competition that is much maligned in England that Manchester United could have received a much more favourable draw than they did as the top Seed. The likes of Fenerbahce and Feyenoord have been described as 'Champions League' level by Jose Mourinho, although the reality is those clubs have fallen far short of the required level to make that competition.

Match Day 3 is going to be an issue for Manchester United as it comes just three days after a trip to Anfield and three days before a trip to Stamford Bridge so I am not anticipating a strong line up in that one. However I would still expect Manchester United to top the section even if the draw could have been kinder.

Southampton were a Third Seed and so drawing Inter Milan and Sparta Prague is difficult for them. Neither should be considered part of the elite, but Southampton don't have a lot of experience of playing in Europe and so might have a tough time negotiating that Group while Hapoel Be'er Sheva make up the section having given Celtic a scare in the Champions League Qualifiers and beaten a team as strong as Olympicos.

This is a better competition than English clubs have considered it, but it is a long road to Sweden and negotiating the Thursday-Sunday conundrum has yet to be proved by any club through the course of a tough season.


The picks have had a terrible week and I have been disappointed with many of them. I have not had a lot of luck with some of them, but this is an important weekend for me as I look to bounce back and make sure August doesn't end up being a terrible month yet again.

The picks come from England, Spain and Italy this weekend beginning on Friday and going through until Sunday evening.


Tottenham Hotspur v Liverpool Pick: This looks to be a fascinating way to begin the latest round of Premier League fixtures as Tottenham Hotspur host Liverpool in the Saturday lunchtime kick off. Both teams have made mixed starts to the season, but they are probably at par for where they would have expected to be in terms of points.

Mauricio Pochettino and Jurgen Klopp have both had successes at Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool, but this is a big season for them to show the improvements on the field. Neither has too many injury issues going into the fixture and I am anticipating a really good game of football.

Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool have both played well against the top clubs in English football in the last couple of years. Spurs have won 4 of 8 against the top five clubs at White Hart Lane in that time, while Liverpool only lost 1 of their 4 away games at the top four last season and hammered Manchester City at The Etihad Stadium.

Their win at Arsenal this season backs up a feeling that Klopp's teams perform better in the big games and a visit to White Hart Lane certainly counts. The returns of Sadio Mane and Daniel Sturridge improves the attacking options that Liverpool have and they certainly look a team who will be dangerous going forward, but defensive concerns remain.

The chances created last week suggests Tottenham Hotspur can expose those concerns in this one and I think it might be far different to the two tight games between these clubs last season. The sole game between Klopp's Liverpool and Pochettino's Tottenham Hotspur ended 1-1 at Anfield and featured plenty of attacking football while this is a fixture that has historically produced goals.

Before last season, 6 straight between Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool ended with three goals shared out, while 8 straight at White Hart Lane had hit that number too. I was leaning towards a Tottenham Hotspur win, but their poor recent home record against Liverpool coupled with the return of key players for the away side who have won in North London once this season put me off.

Instead I will look for the high pressing games of both teams to lead to chances at both ends of the field and the total goals to reach three or more in the early Saturday kick off.


Chelsea v Burnley Pick: Antonio Conte has already shown he can be a big character in the English Premier League and he has given Chelsea a new found belief after a disappointing season last time out. The Blues have battled to all three wins they have achieved this season and that means they are one of four Premier League teams going into the weekend with a 100% record in the League.

They are considered healthy favourites to beat Burnley in this match even though the latter are coming off an impressive 2-0 win over Liverpool. However they didn't have much of the ball in that defeat and that is going to be tough for the squad to deal with through the season if they are having to work hard without the ball every week.

Burnley were also beaten in extra time by Accrington Stanley in the English Football League Cup during the week and they did have a fairly strong team out in that game.

It does have to be said that Burnley struggled away from home two seasons ago when in the Premier League but they did earn draws at Stamford Bridge and The Etihad Stadium in that campaign which ended with relegation. I think Sean Dyche would have learned plenty from his time managing in the Premier League two seasons ago, but Burnley still look a little short of quality.

My one concern with this Asian Handicap is the goals Chelsea have conceded this season even when they have looked in control. The rumours suggest Conte is still looking to strengthen his back line with some big bids made back in his home country, but for now Chelsea will go in with what they have.

As concerned as I am with them defensively, I think Chelsea are showing enough going forward to prove too strong on the day. It might be down to their first clean sheet of the season, but I am backing Chelsea to win this by a couple of goals.


Leicester City v Swansea City Pick: Last season was a real shock for everyone who is associated with Premier League football as well as for all the fans that make it the product it is. No one really expected Leicester City to win the Premier League and I think most have expected a significant drop for them this time around.

Claudio Ranieri has done well to keep the squad together for the most part and I think Leicester City have been far from out. They have created chances in both of their opening Premier League games, but Jamie Vardy has perhaps regressed to the standard he had previously set compared to last season.

For all the hullabaloo around Vardy after an exceptional last season, I think people couldn't understand why I was not ready to appoint him as the saviour of England and also a 'top player'. Yes he got 24 goals last season, but he had combined for just 26 in the previous three seasons which included two seasons at the lower level of the Championship.

He had scored just 26 times in 97 previous games before last season and must have rediscovered those shooting boots in the last couple of games where he has been guilty of missing two or three big chances for Leicester City. Simply put you can't rely on Vardy having all of his scuffed shots go in this time around and Leicester City also need more from Riyad Mahrez, Leonardo Ulloa and Ahmed Musa.

Take away my criticism of Vardy as a footballer and you have to be encouraged by the chances Leicester City have created and think they will eventually start going in rather than high and wide. Even Vardy should get his goals in a side that are still going to be attacked by opponents and Swansea City might be the perfect visitors for The Foxes this week.

Leicester City have beaten them the last 3 times they have played and Swansea City won't sit in as Hull City did at times and so I can see the home team having their chances. Maybe Vardy will show up and score a hat-trick this week (even if that won't change my mind about his abilities), but even without his contributions I do think Leicester City will have a bit too much this week.

I am not sure Swansea City are consistent enough and they have lost plenty of games against the top seven clubs in the last two seasons. They were poor in the defeat to Hull City, something both teams have in common, but I do think Leicester City are creating more opportunities at the moment and it has to be a matter of time before they are going in.

They look underrated in this one as not many teams who finished in the top four last season would be priced at this to beat Swansea City at home. It is not like The Swans have been in exceptional form to open the season either and I think Leicester City can be backed to win their first game of the season and prevent there being a lot of questions about them going into the two week international break.


Watford v Arsenal Pick: Can you imagine the atmosphere at The Emirates Stadium on September 10th if Arsenal were to be beaten at Watford this weekend? The fans who have been behind Arsene Wenger in recent years might be ready to turn with those who have already lost faith with their long-serving manager and the Stadium could be shaking with open revolt if Arsenal have just 1 point from a possible 9 going into that fixture in two weeks time.

Even a draw might not be good enough for Arsenal this weekend as Watford have been struggling for consistency in their own opening games. The English Football League Cup has not been a priority for Premier League clubs in recent years, but there was a clear shift in strength of teams used this past week and that meant Watford had all the headlines when upset by Gillingham from League One.

The owners have been fortunate their managerial changes have worked out in recent seasons, but Walter Mazzarri will be desperate for a first win as Watford have thrown away leads in all three games they have played. They have had the lead though and that makes them a danger to Arsenal even if The Gunners won both League games last season.

It was Watford who beat them in the FA Cup though and both Troy Deeney and Odion Ighalo will fancy their chances against Rob Holding at the heart of the Arsenal defence.

On the other hand I think Arsene Wenger will give all his attacking players a chance to be restored to the starting line up with both Mesut Ozil and Olivier Giroud back to join Alexis Sanchez as the three best attacking choices Arsenal have. The two previous games means Wenger can't afford to leave any out with a two week international break to come and Arsenal will have noted the defensive problems Watford have had so far this season.

Combined it does look a game that will produce at least three goals as all three games between Arsenal and Watford did last season. That has made it 7 straight fixtures between the teams ending with at least three goals shared out including the last 4 at Vicarage Road and neither team is playing with enough confidence to think they can keep out their opponent this weekend.

I wouldn't be surprised if Watford scored as they have in three straight games this season, but the question is can they kick on if they take the lead this time? For Arsenal it is almost a 'must win' game and I can see both teams having their chances and eventually combining for at least three goals shared out.


Hull City v Manchester United Pick: Who would have thought that Hull City versus Manchester United in the third round of games of the Premier League would have been a match between two of the four teams with 100% records in the League?

Not the layers by any imagination as Hull City have won both League games as a pretty big underdog after what had been a turbulent summer at the club. There are still some issues surrounding the number of fit bodies they have and Mike Phelan calling for reinforcements, but the manager has to be given plenty of respect for masterminding two wins out of two in the League.

Keeping the players focused on the football rather than the issues off the field has been huge for Phelan, but this might be another level in terms of a managerial test for what is essentially a rookie Number 1. Manchester United are very close to Phelan's heart having played at Old Trafford and also been a Number 2 to Sir Alex Ferguson in the last few years, but he would love to make it four wins out of four in the 2016/17 season this weekend.

Jose Mourinho is far from a rookie manager, but he has insisted he needs time to remove the 'philosophy' from the players who have been at Old Trafford the last couple of years. It was a negative philosophy and Mourinho wants more attacking from his Manchester United and so far there have been plenty of positive signs with the likes of Zlatan Ibrahimovic fitting in perfectly.

Paul Pogba should be better with another week of training under his belt and he was very good against Southampton, while Eric Bailly looks comfortable at centre half. All of those players have to keep the standards at the level they are and there are only signs of improvement as Manchester United have made slow starts in the first couple of Premier League games.

A mistake opened the door against Bournemouth, while Southampton were the better side before Ibrahimovic opened the scoring last weekend. Once in the lead United have looked comfortable, but they will have to prevent Hull City picking up momentum in this one before they take control.

Newly promoted sides are still feeling very positive in August so they can be tough to beat, but Hull City have surprised in the first couple of games and Mourinho has had eight days to prepare his team for them. You can't discount the chances that Leicester City created at 0-0 when they played at the KCOM Stadium on the opening day and Manchester United have players in form like Ibrahimovic who won't miss those like Jamie Vardy did.

Playing here won't be easy for any team unless Hull City have to use the same eleven players every week. While I do think Hull City can cause Manchester United some problems, I think Mourinho's team are going to be fitter and have more energy with the long break between games. If Manchester United take the chances that Leicester City created and missed, I can see them winning their third game in a row in the Premier League by at least two goals.

Only 2 of Louis Van Gaal's Manchester United away wins came by more than a single goal margin, but Mourinho has got to half that total in one game and I will back Manchester United to cover the Asian Handicap in this one.


Manchester City v West Ham United Pick: There have always been upsets involving English teams in European football, but the West Ham United loss to this Astra team has to be right amongst the very biggest of them in recent years. Slaven Bilic has to be disgusted that West Ham United are not playing in the Europa League Group Stage, especially as it might dent the chances of bringing in the players they have been linked with.

Injuries haven't helped, but the likes of Mark Noble, Manuel Lanzini and Dimitri Payet should return which makes West Ham United a much different team. However they can't be as poor in front of goal again as a team like Manchester City will punish them in the harshest way.

Manchester City are well rested and I can imagine all the boys on Sky Television hoping the two Manchester clubs come through with wins this weekend to set up the first Manchester derby of the season deliciously. The side have made a positive start under Pep Guardiola which suggests they will be too strong for West Ham United and I can see them winning comfortably at The Etihad Stadium.

I do respect how well West Ham United played away from home last season, but they didn't play as well down the stretch as they began the campaign. The Hammers have looked a little flat in the opening games of the season and they could have been beaten very easily against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in their opening game of the Premier League season.

Manchester City haven't been as free scoring at home as they have on their travels, but I think they will be too strong this weekend and I am backing them to beat West Ham United by a couple of goals is the call. In the form Sergio Aguero has been in, I wouldn't be surprised if he is back on the scoresheet, while West Ham United have been lacking options in the final third and Pep Guardiola can end his first competitive month in charge with a fifth straight win in all competitions.


Burton Albion v Derby County Pick: The Friday night live Championship game will have plenty of connections between the Clough name and Derby County Football Club. Both Brian Clough and Nigel Clough have managed Derby County, but Nigel will be in the Burton Albion dugout this weekend as he looks to help his side bounce back from a 0-5 hammering at the hands of Liverpool.

Goals have been flowing in the Burton Albion games all season as they try to bridge the gap that saw them playing in League Two just two seasons ago before back to back promotions brought them into the Championship. 5 of the 6 games Burton Albion have played this season have featured at least three goals and Tuesday was the first time they have failed to score.

The 3-1 home win over Sheffield Wednesday shows what Burton Albion are capable of, while they will be confident having seen fellow promoted club Barnsley beat Derby County 2-0 at Oakwell already this season.

Games involving Derby County have been much tighter so far this season, but I am interested to see what kind of toll the long English Football League Cup Second Round tie against Carlisle United has had on the players. Derby County have yet to score more than a single goal in a game this season but they won't have a better chance against this defence, although they are going to be tested by the goals Burton Albion have in the team too.

I did consider picking Burton Albion to avoid defeat as they look good for at least a goal and Derby County have not scored too many so far. However the Asian Handicap is not offering the best odds and instead I am going to look for this Burton Albion to go the same way many others have and have at least three goals shared out.

They might be trying to find their place at this level of football, but Burton Albion have scored and conceded in every League game. They have scored at least twice in 3 of 4 Championship games and also conceded at least twice in 3 of 4 so the odds against quotes on there being at least three goals is perhaps a little high even if Derby County have not found their shooting boots just yet.


Barnsley v Rotherham United Pick: For both Barnsley and Rotherham United the immediate goal is to make sure they are not relegated from the Championship and so games like this can be vitally important even when meeting in August.

Neil Warnock has been replaced by Alan Stubbs in the Rotherham United dugout and it has been a tough start for the latter. To be honest, Rotherham United dropped their form a little after securing their future in the Championship under Warnock and this was always going to be another difficult season for them.

Their away losses at Aston Villa and Brighton are expected results and Rotherham United have received a boost in confidence after beating Brentford at home last weekend. However their away form in the Championship has not been that impressive as Rotherham United have won just 5 away games at clubs that finished in the bottom 11 places over the last two seasons.

Over that time Rotherham United had finished with the 22nd and then 21st best away record in the Championship and Barnsley have beaten the likes of Queens Park Rangers and Derby County here already. It wasn't the home form that helped Barnsley earn promotion, but they are looking to their form at Oakwell to keep them in the Championship and their strong start suggests they are worth backing to make it three wins in a row at home.


Cardiff City v Reading Pick: With a little more luck, Cardiff City would have been heading into this fixture with back to back League wins behind them, but they have had a week to prepare for this game with Reading. It has surprised me that Cardiff City are such a big price to beat Reading considering the poor away form the latter have shown and the fact this is a team that were dragged all the way to penalties earlier in the week.

Reading have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in the Championship including both played this season at Wolves and Newcastle United, while they lost 7 of 12 away games at the top half clubs in the Championship last season.

The home game against Reading has been a strong fixture in recent League games with 3 straight wins against them. Cardiff City have managed to work their way to at least two goals in each of the last couple of League games and they did have the 6th best home record in the Championship last season.

I think the lack of goals might be why Cardiff City are such a big price to win this game, but I think they can to that this weekend. They are facing a team who are still getting to grips with what Jaap Stam wants from his new club and Reading have conceded plenty of goals in their recent games.

It looks a big price for Cardiff City to take the three points from this one especially as they have won almost 50% of their home games in the Championship since the 2014/15 season. With Reading struggling against the top half clubs last season and already having lost at Wolves and Newcastle United, this price feels wrong and I will back The Bluebirds to win this one.


Huddersfield Town v Wolves Pick: When the fixtures were released in June, not many would have circled this one as potentially being between two unbeaten teams in the top three of the Championship table. Huddersfield Town have negotiated tough games at Newcastle United (won 1-2) and Aston Villa (drew 1-1) to make this really positive start to the new season under David Wagner, while Wolves' takeover was only confirmed in the third week of July.

Since then the expectations have been raised at Wolves and the arrival of Walter Zenga has not seen the slow start that most would have looked for from a manager in England for the first time. Wolves have made some smart moves and the 1-3 win at Birmingham City shows this is a team that could be a dark horse for promotion at the end of this campaign.

Realistically it is difficult to imagine both sustaining the starts they have made with the competitive nature of this Division. Wolves might be in a strong position if they can bring in more bodies before the transfer window closes next week, but Huddersfield Town are certainly exceeding any expectations they must have had in early August.

It was the home record that let Huddersfield Town down last season so the 2 wins to open this season will have boosted confidence, but both have been tight wins. They have scored and conceded in both home games as Wolves have done in both away League games they have played and this might be an entertaining offering on Saturday afternoon.

David Wagner comes from the Borussia Dortmund Youth set up so will clearly favour a high press which can lead to problems defensively and Huddersfield Town have yet to keep a clean sheet. I can see Wolves scoring here, but Huddersfield Town should also work their way onto the scoreboard and it looks like a game where backing at least three goals to be scored at odds against should be backed.


Nottingham Forest v Leeds United Pick: So what are the chances we are going to see a third straight Nottingham Forest home game end with a 4-3 victory for The Tricky Trees? Goals have been flowing in all of the Nottingham Forest games played so far this season and 5 of their 6 in the 2016/17 season has seen at least three goals shared out in their fixtures.

Going forward hasn't seemed to be a problem for Nottingham Forest, but they have looked terrible at the back and it has to be a concern for the manager that they have conceded at least three goals in 3 of their 4 League games.

It does have to be noted that Nottingham Forest and Leeds United had two of the poorer attacks in the Championship last season but that seems to have been rectified by the home team in this one. However, you have to credit Garry Monk for masterminding back to back away wins for Leeds United over the last seven days which makes them a threat in this one.

Neither team were scoring too many last season, but the majority of Nottingham Forest goals were scored at home and the majority of Leeds United goals were scored on their travels. There are signs of that again this season and I think the teams might be underrated to combine for three goals in this fixture even if the last 5 between them have produced just 7 goals in total.

The early weeks of this season have shown there are goals to be had against Nottingham Forest, but they have looked strong going forward at The City Ground. While I don't anticipate another 4-3 result, I think this has the makings of a 2-1 scoreline either way and I am willing to back that at odds against.


Newcastle United v Brighton Pick: These were two of the teams that were expected to challenge for promotion to the Premier League at the end of the 2016/17 season and both have made positive starts to believe they will be there or thereabouts. Newcastle United have bounced back from their opening two League defeats by winning three in a row in all competitions, while Brighton are 2nd in the early League table having been unbeaten so far this season.

This is going to be a competitive game and I think there isn't much to separate the teams, although the layers are feeling the same. Dwight Gayle and Aleksander Mitrovic look to be missing for the home team which does lead to the question as to where the goals will come against a tough Brighton team.

Newcastle United might have had two clean sheets in a row, but one of those came against League Two Cheltenham Town and I do expect Brighton to trouble them having scored at least twice in every game since a goalless draw at Derby County on the opening day.

Chris Hughton will give his players all the advice in the world in dealing with playing at St James' Park having managed Newcastle United but I am not quite sure Brighton have enough in the locker to win here.

Rafa Benitez has made Newcastle United far more difficult to play against at St James' Park since arriving at the back end of last season, while you can't ignore the fact that Brighton had 12 draws away from home last season and have drawn both played on their travels this time around too. Even a struggling Brighton in the 2014/15 season had 9 draws away from home meaning this is a team that has drawn almost half of their away League games since the beginning of that season (23/48).

Last season Brighton finished 4th and drew with all the other clubs that finished in the top six away from home and I will look for this one to end in a stalemate in front of the television cameras on Saturday afternoon.


Real Betis v Deportivo La Coruna Pick: This is the opening game of the second round of Spanish fixtures and will be followed by another break in the League with the World Cup Qualifiers set to take place next weekend. Real Betis are looking to bounce back from their 6-2 loss at Barcelona, but their home form from last season has to be a concern.

They did end the season in strong fashion with 4 wins from their final 6 games here, but now they face a Deportivo La Coruna team who have fared well in recent visits to Real Betis. Deportivo La Coruna are unbeaten in their last 6 here and have won 4 times which includes a 1-2 win last season, while they had the 8th best away record in the Primera Division last season.

It was a big improvement from the 2014/15 season as Deportivo virtually halved their losses and doubled their wins, but the stand out result in their away games has been the draw. In fact 18 of their 38 away games in the Spanish top flight over the last two seasons have ended in draws and they proved very tough to beat on their travels last year.

Deportivo ended last season on a 4 game unbeaten run away from home and it was their form on their travels which kept them in the top flight. With Real Betis being the lowest scorer in the League at home last season, this has the makings of another tight match and I did consider backing the away team with a slight start on the Asian Handicap.

However my feeling is that the most likely result here is a low-scoring draw and I will have a small interest in that being the outcome of this one between two teams that were only separated by three points at the end of the 2015/16 campaign.


Real Madrid v Celta Vigo Pick: This hasn't been a season with big name arrivals at Real Madrid (not yet anyway) that we have seen in recent years, but this is a squad more than capable of winning the big trophies as they have shown in the Champions League a few months ago. Real Madrid have some key players who are another year older now, but they still look strong with Gareth Bale now rounding into his peak years.

A 0-3 win at Real Sociedad without Cristiano Ronaldo looks a very good result and their star man will be back this weekend as Real Madrid host Celta Vigo.

As impressive as a season Celta Vigo had last season, they lost 7 out of 10 League games agains the five clubs that finished higher than them in the League. Celta Vigo are also coming in off an unimpressive 0-1 defeat to La Liga debutants Leganes and they have not had a lot of joy when meeting Real Madrid in recent games.

Celta Vigo have conceded at least three times in each of the last 4 fixtures against Real Madrid, while the visits to the Santiago Bernabeu have not been enjoyable for them. Their last 4 losses have come by a combined 17-1 score and Celta Vigo will be coming in with little confidence following that upset home loss on Monday night.

At odds against Real Madrid are being asked to cover at least two goals on the Asian Handicap and I think they can be backed to do that for the fifth time in a row against Celta Vigo. Real Madrid have won 32 of their last 38 League games at home and 21 of those have come by at least three goals.

Add in their recent record against Celta Vigo and I wouldn't be surprised if Cristiano Ronaldo is back with a goal to his name and Real Madrid win this one comfortably.


Leganes v Atletico Madrid Pick: For a club like Leganes, playing the likes of Atletico Madrid and Real Madrid was nothing but a dream for much of their history. Before last season they had a highest finish of 8th in the Segunda Division and only three seasons ago were playing in the third tier of Spanish football.

It has been a significant rise since then as they are in their maiden Primera Division campaign and the 0-1 win at Celta Vigo shows this is a team that will enjoy every game they have at this level. Hosting Atletico Madrid in the second game should see all 8,000 odd seats filled up on Saturday evening and the idea will be to create an intimidating atmosphere for opponents who are used to the finer things in life.

That might not be enough for the upset as Diego Simeone is likely to have been tearing strips off his players this past week for dropping two home points against Alaves despite scoring what should have been a winning goal in the 90th minute. Atletico Madrid have shown they can recover from these setbacks under their charismatic Argentinian manager, while their 13 away League wins last season could not be bettered by any other team.

The layers are expecting Atletico Madrid to win here and I can't argue with that. Instead I will look for them to do what they do best and that is defend resolutely and secure a victory behind a strong defensive effort.

It is something of a surprise that Atletico Madrid only won 3 of those 13 away games at clubs that finished in the bottom six places and they actually lost to 2 of the bottom four. However the wins did come with a clean sheet and Atletico Madrid have conceded just 29 goals in their last 38 away games in Spain.

Leganes will give Atletico Madrid a real test in this derby game, but I will back Diego Simeone's men to come through with a win behind a clean sheet at odds against.


Athletic Bilbao v Barcelona Pick: The shocking manner in which Barcelona were blown apart by Athletic Bilbao in the Spanish Super Cup must have kept them focused the rest of the season when facing this club. That resulted in 4 wins in a row against them, although both games played in Bilbao were very competitive and resulted in narrow Barcelona wins.

Barcelona might have won 3 of their last 4 visits to Bilbao, but prior to that run they had failed to win any of 4, although I do think this current Athletic Bilbao side have struggled to match the top three clubs. That has led to 5 defeats in 6 home games against Barcelona, Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid in the League and I can understand why the layers are taking no chances with the Barcelona price here.

As strong as Barcelona are, they have been very good away from home finishing with the best away record in each of the last two seasons. 17 of 27 wins over that period have come by at least two goals so you can understand again why the layers are asking Barcelona to win this one by a clear margin for a full payout on the handicaps.

However they have not had it easy when playing in Bilbao and that showed in Barcelona's narrow wins here. Only 4 teams won here last season in the League and none of those came by more than a single goal margin, while the last 2 Barcelona wins have been 0-1 and 1-2. I can't imagine this one being much easier and while the attacking potential Barcelona have can see them beat any team by big margins, I think it is a big price that they win by a narrow margin and I will back them to do so by a single goal victory.


Villarreal v Sevilla Pick: There are some big questions to be answered by both Villarreal and Sevilla heading into the new season, but I do think Sevilla look the stronger of the two teams and I expect them to finish higher in the League table.

It seems to be a similar feel for Villarreal as the last time they qualified for the Champions League. They played in that competition in the 2011/12 season, but it ended with a relegation to the Segunda Division and this current Villarreal squad looks like it might have suffered plenty of upheaval in the summer.

While a relegation would be a big surprise, I would not be surprised to see Villarreal fail to reach Europe through their League record. They look a vulnerable favourite in the second game of the season, even if Sevilla failed to win a single away game in the League last season.

Sevilla lost here 2-1, but had previously won 3 in a row at Villarreal, while the season before last they had the 4th best away record in La Liga. I think the fact they failed to win any of their away games last season is playing a part in the price as is the fact they conceded 4 goals in a win last week, but I think Sevilla can be backed as the underdog for a small interest to win against a team that looks in disarray in Villarreal.


Lazio v Juventus Pick: Last season Juventus made a really slow start to the Italian Serie A campaign, but that didn't prevent them winning the title yet again. Selling Paul Pogba is an obvious loss for the Old Lady, but the signings made to bolster the entire squad looks to have created a team that could potentially challenge for Champions League success.

A tough win over Fiorentina at home will have given Juventus a little bit of a shot in the arm to take into this second game of the season, while they have been dominant away from home last season with three more wins on their travels than any other team in Serie A.

It was a difficult season for Lazio who had finished 3rd two seasons ago but failed to qualify for the Champions League Group Stage. They have been strong at home, but lost their 6 home games to teams that finished above them last season, while 5 of their 6 losses at the Stadio Olimpico the season before had come against teams from the top seven.

Lazio did win 3-4 at Atalanta last week which will have given them confidence but they have struggled against the top teams have lost 3 in a row at home against Juventus. They ended last season with 3 losses from their last 5 here in all competitions and I think the Champions can lay a marker for the season with a win in the Italian capital on Saturday evening at a decent price.


Fiorentina v Chievo Pick: The World Cup Qualifiers begin next week which means there will be a two week break following this game and Fiorentina would love to put their first three points on the board. Losing at the home of the Champions is no disgrace, but Fiorentina will do well not to underestimate Chievo who beat Inter Milan 2-0 last weekend.

As much as Chievo have show improvement in the League in each of the last three seasons, they are still going to be an underdog when visiting the top teams in Serie A. That is shown in their 6 losses to the eight clubs that finished above them in the League table last season and they have particularly struggled in recent visits to Florence.

Fiorentina did win 10 of their 15 games at home against teams that finished below them in the League table and the only concern for me has to be the poor pre-season which is off the back of a long run without too many wins to end the last season. However they were strong at home and I do think Fiorentina will have a little too much for Chievo in this one.

The side have been one of the most consistent ones in Serie A in recent seasons and this might finally be the season when Fiorentina can break into the top three having seen Napoli and Roma weakened in the summer. Inter Milan were also in disarray and Fiorentina can take advantage but that does mean winning games like this one.

Credit Chievo for establishing themselves at this level and steadily improving in each of the last three seasons, but I will back Fiorentina to beat them on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Leicester City @ 1.75 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Watford-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burton Albion-Derby County Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Barnsley @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cardiff City @ 2.40 William Hill (2 Units)
Huddersfield Town-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Nottingham Forest-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Brighton Draw @ 3.40 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Real Betis-Deportivo La Coruna Draw @ 3.30 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Real Madrid - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Atletico Madrid Win to Nil @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Barcelona to Win by One Goal @ 4.00 Stan James (1 Unit)
Sevilla @ 2.88 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Juventus @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Fiorentina @ 1.67 Bet365 (2 Units)

August Update: 21-30-1, - 13.24 Units (91 Units Staked, - 14.55% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)