US Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2025 (Wednesday 27th August)

Let's just say it was long odds against for every selection to be returned as a winner from the US Open tournament and so the perfect run had to end sooner rather than later.

However, it could be said that the two to fall by the wayside have both been a touch unfortunate.

Gael Monfils looked to have the momentum going into the final set against Roman Safiullin, but the veteran lost a tight decider 6-4.

And the Naomi Osaka match would certainly have seen her cover if she had taken one of the host of game points she had when leading 2-0 in the second set- at that moment, Osaka had all of the momentum having won the last four games of the first set and it would have been a long road back for Greet Minnen.

Ultimately it was not to be and Naomi Osaska missed the cover by a single game.

Fortunately Stefanos Tsitsipas did help complete a very solid First Round at the US Open and it looks like Day 4 is going to be the 'busiest' in terms of selections made.

With most of the top names still in action, there is plenty of star power wherever you look around the courts, and hopefully more winners to find for the Tennis Picks on these pages.

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Zachary Svajda: The final scoreline did not paint a full picture for fans of Novak Djokovic and there will have been some concern with the way he was moving during the second set. The former World Number 1 admitted that he had some physical issues during that period of the First Round win over Learner Tien and it is felt that the lack of tennis between Wimbledon and the US Open has perhaps been a factor.

Having that win on the board and the stronger level produced in the third set will be cause for optimism and Novak Djokovic can work his way into the tournament.

Being one of the higher Seeds means avoiding the really big challengers until having at least two or three matches under the feet and Novak Djokovic is a considerable favourite in this Second Round contest.

Credit should always be given to any player that has won three Qualifying matches to earn a spot in the main draw at a Grand Slam and Zachary Svajda also earned a straight sets win in the First Round. This is going to offer him a real boost in the World Rankings, but the 22 year old American is going to need Novak Djokovic to have a considerable 'off' day if he is going to spring the upset.

The fans are certainly going to get behind the home player, while Zachary Svajda should take confidence from the fact he took a set from Jiri Lehecka in Washington and then won a title on the hard courts at Challenger level in Lexington.

He has played well enough on a familiar surface, but Zachary Svajda is going to have to serve a lot more efficiently than usual if he is going to put Novak Djokovic under any kind of pressure. Going up against arguably the best return player of all time will put the young American's serve under the microscope and the second serve in particular feels like it could be a vulnerability.

There is no doubt that Novak Djokovic is going to feel he has to show improvement if he is going to win a twenty-fifth Major here in New York City, but he did have a lot of success against the Learner Tien serve and he can back that up here. Serving with more authority should also be on Djokovic's mind, and he has had two days to prepare for this Second Round match, which should also be important to the Serb.

Much like his compatriot, Zachary Svajda may push Novak Djokovic for a set, but it could be tough to stick with a player who is very aware of conserving some early energy by making sure he does not need four or five sets to progress. A vulnerable serve is expected to be attacked with aggression by Novak Djokovic and he may create enough Break Point chances to eventually win this match and cover the handicap mark that has been set.

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Mattia Bellucci: The new buzzcut sported by Carlos Alcaraz was talk of the New York City crowd on Day 2 of the US Open, but the Spaniard made sure his tennis did plenty of talking too.

Beating Reilly Opelka may not have been unsurprising, but the performance was very good from the Cincinnati Champion and Carlos Alcaraz is looking for a much better run here than last year.

He faces a different kind of challenge in the Second Round compared with the monster serving that Reilly Opelka will bring to the court and this may actually be a more comfortable match up for Carlos Alcaraz.

Mattia Bellucci is the World Number 65 and the lefty has won a title on the hard courts this summer, albeit at the Challenger level. The Italian reached a career best World Ranking mark last month and an upset on Wednesday will see him move past that, although Mattia Bellucci is going to have to find another level if he is going to beat the World Number 2.

He did not make the main draw at the Australian Open earlier this year and early losses at Masters tournaments, including in Toronto and Cincinnati, makes it tough to believe Mattia Bellucci is going to be capable of pushing Carlos Alcaraz too hard. Mattia Bellucci is just 3-6 in hard court matches against top 100 Ranked opponents, while the service numbers have dipped worryingly in those matches.

Winning less than 58% of points played behind serve is not going to do Mattia Bellucci many favours against someone like Carlos Alcaraz, and especially not when you consider how much the Italian has struggled on the returning side of his tennis against the very best on the Tour.

Carlos Alcaraz can sometimes be guilty of losing focus in early Rounds, even at Grand Slam level, and he drops more sets at this stage of a Major than you would imagine. Even in the win over Opelka, there were times when sloppiness crept into the Alcaraz game as he tried to keep the crowd engaged and that makes covering lines like this a bit more challenging than it should be.

However, it is hard to believe Mattia Bellucci can push Carlos Alcaraz for long enough to prevent the World Number 2 from putting a run of games together. One competitive set would not be a massive surprise, but Alcaraz is capable of blitzing through another and that may be enough to set him up for a cover of this line.

Jessica Pegula - 5.5 games v Anna Blinkova: At 31 years old, some may feel that Jessica Pegula's hopes of winning a Grand Slam title may be fading.

The US Open may represent her best chance of doing that having reached the Final twelve months ago before losing narrowly to Aryna Sabalenka, although it has been a poor Grand Slam year for the American. She has only reached the Fourth Round at the French Open, but Pegula suffered early upsets in Melbourne and London and so there is some pressure on her.

She may be the World Number 4 and so Seeded to reach the Semi Final, but Jessica Pegula has made one Quarter Final in her last seven Grand Slam tournaments. Confidence will come from the fact that she reached that Round, and beyond, here at the US Open last year, but it has not been the best summer for Jessica Pegula.

Her opening match was pretty impressive, but another level will be needed when facing Anna Blinkova who is the World Number 80 who upset Elena Rybakina at the Australian Open in 2024.

However, Anna Blinkova has struggled to reach that level consistently since then and she has lost four of the five hard court matches played since Wimbledon in the lead up to the US Open. Like her opponent in the Second Round, Anna Blinkova was a strong First Round winner, but will also be well aware that she needs to be considerably better if she is going to extend her stay at the tournament.

In 2025, Anna Blinkova has really struggled when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and her service numbers have taken a serious hit in those matches.

One of those defeats was against Jessica Pegula in Austin back in February and Anna Blinkova was only able to win four games.

She may do a little better in this Second Round match at the US Open, although Jessica Pegula has won three of their previous four hard court matches. Two of those wins have been in pretty dominant fashion and the feeling is that this is a match that will be played on the Pegula racquet.

As long as she can serve as well as she can on the hard courts, Jessica Pegula should be able to have enough successes on the return of serve to ensure not only a win, but a cover of this wide line set.

Belinda Bencic - 3.5 games v Ann Li: It feels like Ann Li has been around a lot longer than her 26 years of age would suggest and the American has yet to crack the top 40 in the World Rankings.

The run to the Final in Cleveland in the final week ahead of the US Open will have given the American some confidence and she has maintained some momentum by winning in the First Round.

This is on the back of losing early in Montreal and Cincinnati, but Li has shown she is a capable performer on the hard courts having reached the Final in Singapore as well as in Cleveland. However, it has been challenging for Ann Li to face top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts, while she had lost in the First Round three times and been beaten in the Qualifiers in her last four appearances at the US Open before beating Rebecca Sramkova this year.

Ann Li has struggled to make an impact at Grand Slam level in any of the four Majors and now has to face Belinda Bencic who reached the Wimbledon Semi Final.

Two early defeats in the build up to the US Open will have just slowed the momentum that Bencic had earned last month in London, but she was a comfortable First Round winner and the Swiss player has enjoyed playing in New York City.

Before the run in Wimbledon, Belinda Bencic had only reached the Quarter Final at the US Open having done that twice and also been a Semi Finalist previously. Some may not enjoy the conditions at the US Open, but that is not the case for Bencic and she can find a way to get the better of the lower Ranked player.

Recent results have not been the best, but over the course of the season Belinda Bencic has shown her competence on a hard court and the level is one that Ann Li may struggle to match.

The latter is someone who can push even the best players, but Belinda Bencic may find the edges at key moments and that can see her through with a win and a cover of the handicap mark set.

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: You don't want to read too much into Mirra Andreeva's win over Alycia Parks considering how poorly the latter dealt with the occasion, but the teenager can continue her march through the US Open draw.

Even the Andreeva team are going to be expecting a lot more resistance from Anastasia Potapova, although the World Number 53 will have to find a better level if she is going to earn the upset.

Prior to the First Round win, Anastasia Potapova had lost six of seven hard court matches going back to April and she is an inconsistent player on the surface. The 1-3 record against top 20 Ranked opponents has to be a concern for Potapova, while her returning numbers in those matches has put a lot of pressure on the serve.

A player like Mirra Andreeva is the kind of return player that can add to that pressure, especially as she has a serve that is improving all of the time and she can get the better of her compatriot in this Second Round match.

Winning titles in Dubai and Indian Wells is a big reminder of the talent that Mirra Andreeva has, although she did lose her only match played on the surface between Wimbledon and the US Open. Back to back appearances at the US Open have ended in the Second Round, which will be on the mind of the younger player, but the World Number 5 has to believe she can get the better of the opponent in front of her.

In matches played against players Ranked outside of the top 20 on the hard courts in 2025, Mirra Andreeva has won sixteen out of eighteen.

At 18 years old you cannot be surprised that Mirra Andreeva can perhaps go wandering mentally within a match, but she has very strong numbers against players she is expected to beat and can get on top of Anastasia Potapova here.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 1.61 William Hill (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Brandon Nakashima - 1.5 Sets @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Sets @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 7-2, + 7.82 Units (17 Units Staked, + 46% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2024 (Tuesday 27th August)

The opening day of the US Open has already given the fans of the sport some drama with a couple of upsets and some First Round matches proving to be tougher than expected.

Credit has to be given to Qinwen Zheng for fighting back and beating a quality opponent in Amanda Anisimova, although I am looking forward to seeing the latter develop and fulfil her potential. A number of personal issues have made things hard for Anisimova to do that, but hopefully she is ready for a much stronger 2025 and can start to move up the World Rankings.

Holger Rune was eliminated and a couple of veterans have called time on their careers after defeats.

Both Dominic Thiem and Diego Schwartzman should be proud of what they achieved in their careers, but will move away from the tennis court for now. There does feel like a real change all around the Tour and on Day 2 there are more players in action that are closer to the end of their careers than the start.

Mixed results on Day 1 are frustrating, especially when two matches fell into the losing column by a single game each.

A bit more luck will help as we move into Day 2 with the focus on the women's tournament as the majority of selections are from those First Round matches set to be played.

Danielle Collins - 5.5 games v Caroline Dolehide: The World Number 11 enters her final Grand Slam on the Tour and there is still a feeling that Danielle Collins has a lot more to offer. She is not that far away from her career best Ranking that was set in July 2022 and Danielle Collins won a big title in Miami earlier this year to underline her potential on the hard courts.

Playing in front of the home fans one more time in the last Grand Slam of her career is going to provide plenty of motivation for the American.

However, this is a tough First Round match for Danielle Collins against Caroline Dolehide, another player from the United States who will want to impress the home crowd. While Collins has one foot out of the professional Tour, Caroline Dolehide will be hoping that there is more to come from herself as a top 50 Ranked player and who is looking to move towards the top 40.

A run to the Semi Final in Washington shows the kind of standard that Caroline Dolehide can set, but early losses in Toronto and Cincinnati are tough to take. It also means she has lost three hard court matches in a row ahead of this US Open First Round clash against an opponent that has largely found a way to get the better of Dolehide.

That includes a relatively comfortable win at the French Open and Danielle Collins is a much happier player on the hard courts, even if she has had limited preparation for the US Open. The same can be said for Caroline Dolehide, but the latter is still finding her feet when it comes to playing some of the stronger players on the Tour and Collins remains one of those, even if retirement is now looming.

Danielle Collins has the superior serve, which is hugely important in hard court matches, and she has been able to find a way to challenge the Dolehide serve in their professional matches. She has actually won a higher percentage of points played on the Caroline Dolehide serve than the server and any similar output here will give the higher Ranked American every chance of opening her final US Open with a strong win.

Emma Raducanu - 4.5 games v Sofia Kenin: Both of these former Grand Slam Champions are searching for the form to get closer to the level that was produced when picking up the major titles.

In 2021 in her second ever main draw appearance at a Grand Slam, Emma Raducanu was able to roll through the Qualifiers and the main draw at the US Open to win the title here. The surprising run saw her move into the top ten of the World Rankings a few months later, but injury and an unwillingness to perhaps go through the hard yards have meant the career has stalled somewhat.

Instead of facing Qualifying matches to play in Toronto or Cincinnati, Emma Raducanu made a pretty bizarre decision to head back to the United Kingdom and prepare for the US Open there. Some have criticised her focus, but Raducanu is young and remains very talented and this is a decent looking First Round match for her.

Sofia Kenin won the Australian Open in 2020 and followed up by reaching the French Open Final a few months later, but injury and a complete loss of form has seen her plummet down the World Rankings. She is a former World Number 4, but Kenin is playing as the World Number 54 these days and she has reached the second week of a Grand Slam tournament just once since the beginning of 2021.

The home crowd may get behind her, but Sofia Kenin has struggled for wins on the hard courts and a 2-11 record on the surface in 2024 is very, very disappointing. Confidence looks shattered right now for the 25 year old and the hard court numbers makes it very hard to believe she can stay competitive, even if Emma Raducanu has not played a lot of tennis this month.

Prior to skipping the two Masters events, Emma Raducanu worked her way through to the Quarter Final in Washington, and a slightly more productive second serve and return game may just give the British player the edge.

Previous experiences at the US Open have to offer Raducanu some inspiration, even if she has not won a match in New York City since winning the title in 2021. The last couple of years have been every bit as difficult for Sofia Kenin and the form in the build up to the US Open has looked way below the kind of levels that the American once produced.

There may be a few breaks of serve shared out, but that stronger second serve should pave the way for Emma Raducanu to win this opening match between two relatively recent Grand Slam Champions who have lost their way.

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 2.5 games v Elina Avanesyan: Fourteen months ago, Beatriz Haddad Maia was Ranked inside the top ten, but inconsistency has perhaps hindered her progress. We have seen more of that in preparation for the final Grand Slam of the season after Haddad Maia was beaten relatively early in Toronto and Cincinnati before making a run to the Final in Cleveland.

She was not quite able to win the title, but the Brazilian should feel better about her tennis and her opening First Round match being on Day 2 at the US Open should help.

First up is a tough looking match against Elina Avanesyan who is playing on a career high World Ranking mark and the young player is improving all of the time. Earlier this year Avanesyan reached the Third Round at the Australian Open and she did make use of her Lucky Loser return to the Cincinnati main draw earlier this month, although the numbers show a player that still has some room for improvement.

The 3-4 record on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked opponents has to be respected and certainly will make Elina Avanesyan confident of her chances of upsetting this opponent. The numbers have been solid in those matches, even if Avanesyan will likely need to play stronger tennis than she is able to put together on a regular basis, but there is a way for her to win this match.

It is something that Beatriz Haddad Maia will have to respect and anything short of her own usual level will see her as a vulnerable Seeded player in the draw.

Much is going to depend on the Haddad Maia serve- this can be a big weapon for the Brazilian when she plays at her best and will put some pressure on Elina Avanesyan.

The latter is someone who has a serve that can be challenged and, although having decent return numbers, that is going to build a pressure on Avanesyan to find a way into the Haddad Maia service games.

Nothing ever seems to come easy for Beatriz Haddad Maia these days, but the performances in Cleveland are encouraging and that should put her in a good position to come through with a win and a cover. Elina Avanesyan is still growing on the Tour and is beginning to earn a bit more confidence, but we may see more from her in the big events next year and this US Open may end prematurely for her.

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 games v Jelena Ostapenko: Eight years have passed since Jelena Ostapenko and Naomi Osaka last met on the Tour and a lot has changed for both of these players.

Since that meeting at the French Open in 2016, Naomi Osaka has moved on to become a four time Grand Slam Champion, a mother, and someone who has needed to spend time away from the Tour. Injury had been an issue before motherhood, while the pressures of being a well known athlete never really sat well with Osaka and it is time that may have gotten her to appreciate being on the Tour more than she did before.

Missing a year on the Tour is challenging for any player and Naomi Osaka has admitted that she is struggling to find the consistency needed at the highest level. There have been one or two really good performances, but some very disappointing losses and it may take a bit more time for Naomi Osaka to really feel like she is in control when playing on the biggest courts.

Since Miami back in March, Naomi Osaka has only won two matches in a row at two tournaments and that has meant losing early in the main draw in Toronto and failing to Qualify for Cincinnati.

The hard court numbers are not at her 2021 levels, which is when Osaka won the last of her Grand Slam titles, but she isn't playing badly. Ultimately she is coming up short in matches, which could be attributed to the match rustiness that comes with a year out of the Tour, but this is a match up that might be actually enjoyable for Naomi Osaka.

It is expected to be a big hitting match with Jelena Ostapenko not afraid to play ultra-aggressive tennis, even when things are not quite going to plan. However, that approach can leave the Latvian vulnerable in matches and Ostapenko did suffer two disappointing losses in Toronto and Cincinnati to Lucky Losers returning to the main draw.

Two hard court titles have been won on the hard courts in January and February, but the performances on the surface have been much more erratic since then. Jelena Ostapenko is very capable on her best day and she will not lack for motivation in a match like this one, which will be played on one of the big Flushing Meadows show-courts.

The return games of both of these players have perhaps not been as strong as they would have liked, but it does feel like Naomi Osaka is the one that will get a bit more joy out of the conditions when it comes to her own service games. In an expected close match, that could be key to determining the final outcome and the feeling is that the former two time US Open Champion will find a way past Jelena Ostapenko in three sets.

Despite having to go the distance, an opportunity to cover this handicap mark should be there for the former Champion and Naomi Osaka may just use the crowd support to eventually get on top of Jelena Ostapenko in a stand out First Round match.

MY PICKS: Danielle Collins - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Emma Raducanu - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia - 2.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 2-2, - 0.34 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.25% Yield)

Premier League Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 4 2022/23 (August 27th-28th 2022)

The Premier League continues to move at a pace and we are very shortly going to add in European commitments for the top teams which means a huge amount of football will be played in a short space of time.

This is all down to the Winter World Cup in three months time and that is a problem for Fantasy players as much as the real life managers with rotation set to be pretty high.

It is the first test of the squads between GameWeek 4 and GameWeek 6 when three Premier League matches are played by each club in the space of eight or nine days. That will be a challenge for the deepest of squads and something that will mean needing a strong bench to negotiate the path through.

United Corner- Momentum, Momentum, Momentum

That was not a normal Monday night at Old Trafford.

It has been a long time since I've sat in such an inspired atmosphere and certainly the loudest the fans have been since the return to the stands following the Covid pandemic and I include the 5-1 mauling of Leeds United last season and the 4-1 win over Newcastle United as Cristiano Ronaldo made his second debut for the club.

I have to believe the that march to the ground that saw thousands of United fans come together certainly helped and the adrenaline was pumping at kick off. Anti-Glazer chants were shouted loud and proud before, during and after the game and Lisandro Martinez clearly captured the vibe around the Stadium by depositing Mo Salah to the turf within seconds of the start of the game.

I won't lie, I wasn't expecting much from United after their first couple of results, but it was a strong performance and a much deserved win, even if Jurgen Klopp was hesitant to admit that. Erik ten Hag got the big decisions right on the night and goals from Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford will hopefully begin to spark their careers at the club.

As I've wrote in the headline, now it's all about momentum, momentum, momentum.

The win over Liverpool will quickly be forgotten if Manchester United are unable to take maximum points from the away games at Southampton and Leicester City before the visit of Arsenal next Sunday. Yes, the away form has been miserable over the last few months, but Southampton and Leicester City are very much winnable fixtures for any club that is hoping to chase a place in the top four and this is the time for the players to stand up and be counted.

Beating Liverpool in an intense atmosphere showed character, but United fans expect and demand more.

That word 'momentum' is also very important when it comes to the protests- the club are doing all they can to douse those, either by editing videos to remove chants they don't like, or taking down banners using weak excuses to do so.

The march down to the ground on Old Trafford was far bigger than the one that began against Norwich City on Easter Weekend and I do hope 'The 1958' can keep it going. The Glazers have been rocking, but United fans cannot allow one or two shiny new toys and a big win over those lot from down the road to cloud our judgement.

The real issue remains at the club, but I have faith that 'The 1958' will continue to swell in terms of support and the momentum is with them and us as we continue to remind the world how much the Glazer family have hurt the club over their seventeen year ownership.

Remember, Glazers Out.

Leaving Old Trafford on Monday night, you couldn't help but smell the change in the air with the fans pumped and the adrenaline coursing through each and every one of us.

I will admit that I have not been convinced with some of the early decisions made by Erik ten Hag, especially having Luke Shaw and Harry Maguire starting the first two League games, but I was feeling much better on Tuesday morning.

The manager has not only made some big decisions in his team selection, but his position to do so will have been strengthened after the 2-1 win over Liverpool and I was impressed with some of the football played. Lisandro Martinez and Tyrell Malacia were excellent on Monday, as was Raphael Varane, and I was enjoying the fact that all three were willing to make passes into players in front of them rather than always turning back or playing square as Shaw and Maguire have tended to do.

Some of that is down to shot confidence, but Manchester United need braver players and I think Martinez and Malacia have laid down a marker.

Now it is about backing it up.

I'd give them ample time to do that and not just remove either if they have a game short of what we saw on Monday- too many like Shaw and Maguire have had multiple chances and need to be reminded that form and performance levels, not reputation, gets you selected at a big club.

The manager is likely going to pick the same eleven that started on Monday night with the only question being which Anthony to go for- Elanga or Martial?

Regardless, I do think Erik ten Hag will feel much more settled as the manager of this club after the last game and stamping his authority on the squad is key.

Premier League Picks GameWeek 4

There is no hiding place- I've had an absolutely miserable start to the season.

Not much has broken my way, but there have also been some bad Picks.

It's not all going to come back at once, but a winning week is important with the fixtures coming round thick and fast and I am expecting much better than the production so far.

Another poor week may mean a reset is needed before going again, but these are my thoughts for the fixtures scheduled for Saturday and Sunday.

Southampton v Manchester United Pick: A win over Liverpool will always be appreciated by those who follow Manchester United, but for most this cannot paper over the cracks at the club and there will be a continued protest against the Glazer family who have been so damaging in their time in charge.

This is something that is likely going to drag on, but the fans still made sure they were firmly behind the team and the club rather than the owners on Monday night. A pumped atmosphere at Old Trafford was added to by the intensity of the Manchester United players and they deservedly came away with a first win of the season and of the Erik ten Hag era.

The manager made some big decisions in his starting line up having left out the likes of Harry Maguire and Cristiano Ronaldo, but those were justified in the 2-1 win. It is unlikely that there will be wholesale changes after that performance, but Casemiro is ready to make his debut and could come in for Scott McTominay, while the main question for ten Hag is which Anthony to start- Elanga or Martial?

Regardless, Erik ten Hag has to be spending the time between Monday night and Saturday lunchtime to remind his players that the win over Liverpool will mean nothing if they don't back it up at St Mary's. The effort and intensity shown has to be produced in every game and Manchester United will also be tested having lost their last 7 away Premier League games going back to last season.

Avoiding the early mistakes that proved devastating at Brentford will be important, but Manchester United will also have to match the intensity that Southampton will be playing with.

Rumours that the players were no longer behind Ralph Hasenhuttl were rampant and there would have been some real discontent in the stands as Southampton trailed Leeds United 0-2 in their first home game. However, the players showed considerable character to come back and earn a deserved draw and then backed that up with a strong performance and win at Leicester City.

Confidence won't be a problem in the home team and I do think Southampton have shown they can at least give Manchester United plenty to think about in recent years. Yes, they have taken a 9-0 thumping at Old Trafford in that time, but Southampton have drawn 3 of their last 4 at home against Manchester United and will feel there are still some vulnerabilities that can be exploited.

In saying that, Manchester United will be encouraged by the chances that both Tottenham Hotspur and Leeds United have created against Southampton and this could be a fairly entertaining game on the south coast to open the fourth round of Premier League fixtures.

Both teams scoring would not be a surprise, but I do think Manchester United will be able to play with much more swagger in this away game than we have seen in recent months. The win over Liverpool coupled with the players knowing that their manager is capable of making big decisions in terms of team selection should help and I do think Manchester United can snap their really poor recent away record.

From a confidence stand point, it is important for Manchester United to score first and I do think they can create enough chances to do that. As long as they don't give away goals like they did at Brentford, Manchester United can win this game that should produce two or more goals.

Brentford v Everton Pick: Thomas Frank will not have been happy with the early attitude and then some of the defending in Brentford's 3-2 loss at Fulham last weekend, but the attacking side of the game does give The Bees a real sting.

They have now scored at least twice in all 4 games played in all competitions this season and more impressive is the fact that 3 of those have been away from home. The manager won't ignore some of the help that Manchester United gave his Brentford team here in a 4-0 win two weeks ago, but Thomas Frank has to be pleased with what he has seen from his team when they do go forward.

Finding a balance between attack and defence is not going to be easy, while I do think Frank is someone that wants his team to get forward and express themselves. I certainly think they can do that against an Everton team who have lost 9 of their last 11 away Premier League games and who have not had a clean sheet in the top flight so far this season.

Some credit has to be given to Frank Lampard and his team about the way they have defended and Everton have not conceded a lot of goals. However, both Chelsea and Aston Villa created plenty and I do think that offers Brentford encouragement.

A bigger question for Everton is whether they can pose much of a threat when they have the ball- while the team have played some good football into the final third, the lack of a clinical and composed finisher has hurt Everton. It would be surprising if they were not able to cause problems for Brentford, but in the absence of Dominic Calvert-Lewin and the departure of Richarlison, the lack of a goalscorer has been a problem.

Demarai Gray has scored two in two, which will give him confidence, but the more consistent threat in this fixture is likely to come from Brentford.

With the goals being scored by Thomas Frank's men, I do think Brentford can do enough to secure a vital three points as they look to avoid second season syndrome in the top flight. Ivan Toney is showing he can produce at this level and he is the player that could make the difference and the feeling is that Brentford can make it three Premier League victories in a row against an Everton team still looking for consistent answers in the final third.

Brighton v Leeds United Pick: Both Brighton and Leeds United have made very strong starts to the Premier League and they have shown off a little of the squad depth as much changed starting elevens won League Cup ties against lower League opponents.

With unbeaten records to protect, the two meet on the south coast on Saturday and I think this will be a confident and entertaining match to watch. The two sides have both earned 7 points from a possible 9 in the Premier League, although something has to give on Saturday.

Brighton have won 3 times this season and all of those victories have been away from the Amex Stadium, while Leeds United have won 3 times and all at Elland Road. Both teams have settled for a draw in their sole home/away game respectively, although I do think both Graham Potter and Jesse Marsch will feel their teams could have won the game where they had to settle for a point.

The chances being created by both teams have to be respected, although I do think the early form has slightly favoured Brighton over Leeds United. While the two teams have been confident in the final third, Brighton have been a bit more convincing with their defending and have limited the chances that opponents have been able to create against them.

Last season both Premier League games between these teams ended in draws, but that was largely down to Brighton's wastefulness in front of goal. Previously they had found a finishing touch to their football when hosting Leeds United, and Brighton had won 5 in a row at home against them before the goalless draw between them here in November 2021.

Brighton's wastefulness and the Nick Pope performance means they failed to score in their first home game, but they have scored at least twice in the other fixtures played this season. As solid as the Leeds United results and performances have been, they have perhaps been a touch more fortunate than their hosts and I think that may show up here.

I expect Brighton to dominate the chances in front of goal and I think they can win this one, although this Leeds United team have to be respected. They are dangerous and have scored plenty of goals, but Brighton have looked pretty solid in the defensive third and I feel they can edge to the three points in this match between unbeaten opponents.

Chelsea v Leicester City Pick: You can sense there is a growing feeling that the Leicester City board and Brendan Rodgers could decide to part way, unless there is something significant that changes ahead of the final week of the transfer window.

Brendan Rodgers felt his squad needed some new blood at the end of last season, but Leicester City have not had the finances to support him and the potential sale of Wesley Fofana will be a blow. Teams have been circling James Maddison and Jamie Vardy too, while Youri Tielemens is another being linked with a move away and you do have to wonder if Rodgers may feel he can't take the squad any further.

The poor results and performances will not help.

Leicester City blew the 2-0 lead over Brentford on the opening day in an eventual draw, but they have deservedly lost at Arsenal and to Southampton last weekend. The latter defeat is really worrying as Leicester City were leading in that one too, but the departure of Kasper Schmeichel has left them vulnerable at the back and perhaps lacking some inspiration in attacking areas.

James Maddison is doing his best and has been a key player for Leicester City from an attacking sense, but the chances being given up are really worrying.

I think Chelsea will have their opportunities to take advantage, even if they have been lacking a Number Nine in their early fixtures. Creativity has not been a problem, but Chelsea need someone who can consistently provide the end product and that does not seem to be any player currently on their books.

Things are likely to change before September, but this current Chelsea squad should be able to manage against Leicester City. In recent seasons they have not enjoyed hosting The Foxes, but Leicester City look really vulnerable and short of confidence and a first goal for Chelsea could see them largely dominate the match.

Thomas Tuchel will be demanding a reaction from the 3-0 loss at Leeds United last Sunday and you have to believe a similar level to that produced against Tottenham Hotspur will be more than good enough for Chelsea against Leicester City.

The Foxes could play their part, but the goals being conceded makes it hard to believe they can earn a positive result for the fifth time in six visits to Stamford Bridge. Instead I expect Chelsea to have enough chances and eventually quality to convert and cover the Asian Handicap on their way to a first home three points of the season.

Liverpool v Bournemouth Pick: They travelled to Old Trafford as very, very strong favourites to beat rivals Manchester United again, but Liverpool were clearly second best on Monday night.

Now all the attention is on Liverpool who have surprisingly yet to have won a Premier League game this season and that despite facing Fulham, Crystal Palace and Manchester United. Jurgen Klopp's team have been favourites in all three games, strong favourites, but they have continued a bad habit from last season in conceding the first goal.

Jadon Sancho's strike on Monday means Liverpool have fallen behind in each of their last 7 Premier League games and injuries are not helping the cause. However, that would be a pretty poor excuse to use when you think of the quality still available and Klopp and the players will be demanding a much more focused effort all around.

Going forward Liverpool are still creating plenty of chances, but they do look to be missing Sadio Mane. Both Diogo Jota and Darwin Nunez being on the sidelines hasn't helped as it has meant an over-reliance on Roberto Firmino who looks to have seen his best days in a Liverpool shirt.

I don't think the absences should be a factor on Saturday as Liverpool prepare to host a Bournemouth team who have conceded seven goals in losses to Manchester City and Arsenal combined. Scott Parker's team were well beaten in both games and he will be concerned with the early goals that his team have conceded in those defeats, especially as the approach has to be to frustrate Liverpool and see if defensive vulnerability remains in the home camp.

The Bournemouth players should certainly listen to Parker... I mean he was the last Premier League manager to earn a victory at Anfield from his time with Fulham.

After containing Liverpool early, Fulham broke to score on the stroke of half time and Scott Parker got his tactics spot on that day. That victory was against an injury hit Liverpool team too so there are similarities ahead of this fixture, although I do think Anfield will help the home players produce a big performance.

You ultimately cannot expect Liverpool to continue to be as wasteful in front of goal as they have been nor as sloppy as they have been in defensive situations. Bournemouth have not really shown much as a threat in the final third in any of their Premier League games this season in terms of number of chances created, and the defensive issues that were highlighted before the season have reared up in the defeats to Manchester City and Arsenal.

The same could potentially happen here if Liverpool can score the first goal and just play with a bit more confidence and I do think Jurgen Klopp's team will win their first League fixture on Saturday in some style.

Manchester City v Crystal Palace Pick: The dominance of Manchester City in recent seasons means they are going off plenty short in almost every Premier League fixture they will be playing and that is the case again on Saturday.

It fails to account for the fact that Crystal Palace took four points from Manchester City last season and Patrick Vieira's team did not concede a goal against one of his former clubs. Of course you will have to ride out some rough moments in being able to do that, but Crystal Palace were really solid in their game on this ground.

The 0-2 win at the Etihad Stadium means Crystal Palace have lost 1 of their last 4 visits to Manchester City and have to be considered something of a bogey team. That is especially the case considering The Eagles have won twice in that time and they have managed to score at least two goals in 3 of their last 4 games here.

After seeing Newcastle United hurt Manchester City last weekend, Crystal Palace have a further blueprint in how to attack the Champions and I do think they have quality in the final third. They showed that in the 1-1 draw at Anfield two weeks ago when only better finishing from Wilfried Zaha was needed to add to the goal he scored and perhaps earn Crystal Palace the win.

Pep Guardiola will be well aware how dangerous Crystal Palace can be and he will be looking for his Manchester City team to be much more resilient than they showed in the 3-3 draw at Newcastle United. There are clearly plenty of goals in the squad so you have to expect Manchester City to score in every game they play, even if they didn't against Crystal Palace last season, and the addition of Erling Haaland should help.

The injury to Nathan Ake to add to Aymeric Laporte is a blow, but Manchester City have looked very controlled in the games before the trip to St James' Park. I expect them to try and get back to basics in this one and avoid leaving Crystal Palace's wingers in one on one situations as they allowed Allan Saint-Maximin to dominate in the first half last Sunday.

This time Manchester City should be more settled without a first half injury to deal with and I do think they will be better for it.

Crystal Palace did score at Liverpool two weeks ago, but they did struggle for goals at the big six last season. They lost at Chelsea, Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur without scoring last season and even this very good looking attacking side produced by Patrick Vieira may struggle for the chances at the home of the Champions looking to show much better in their own final third than last week.

I do think Crystal Palace need to be respected when you think of the amount of goals they have plundered at the Etihad Stadium in recent years, but their sole defeat in their last 4 visits came in a game where they failed to score. I think that could be the outcome of this one with a much more focused Manchester City likely to be playing after the two fixtures between the clubs last season.

In fact Manchester City have earned 4 clean sheets in the last 6 between these clubs and a home win to nil looks a decent price.

Arsenal v Fulham Pick: A strong pre-season raised expectations, but the win at Crystal Palace on the opening weekend of the campaign has really gotten people to sit up and take notice.

After only just missing out on a top four place last season, Arsenal look to have done the business in the transfer market to not only close that gap, but to feel anything less than a Champions League spot is a failure. That does place some pressure on Mikel Arteta's shoulders as manager of the club, but he looks happy and the players look very comfortable as the last remaining team with a perfect record in the Premier League.

The win at Palace was very impressive, even if Arsenal had to ride their luck at times, but backing that up against Leicester City and Bournemouth was important. I am still not sure what I truly think of Arsenal because it has been a relatively kind start to the campaign, but momentum can be very important and back to back home games gives them a chance to build on the foundation already laid down.

You would expect Arsenal to beat Fulham and Aston Villa, but expectations are not always met.

They will have to respect a Fulham team that took a point from Liverpool already, although I do think Arsenal will be excited to attack a Fulham defence that has looked plenty leaky. Both Liverpool and Brentford scored twice at Craven Cottage and this Arsenal team have been creating plenty of chances in their first three wins in the League.

Fulham may feel the best approach is to fight fire with fire and that has worked in their opening games as they remain unbeaten on their return to the top flight. Defensively there may be questions, but Fulham did create plenty of their own attacking chances in the games played in the Premier League and they may feel they can play a part in this fixture.

However, keeping Arsenal out is going to be very difficult with the approach set out by Marco Silva and I don't think the manager is going to be changing his principles too far from what he likes to see. That worked against Liverpool, but at the Emirates Stadium it could leave Fulham open to the Arsenal final third threat and I do think the home team will win again and by two or more goals for the fourth time in August.

Aston Villa v West Ham United Pick: Both Steven Gerrard and David Moyes have some big expectations to meet this season, although the latter's recent successes means he has a bit more goodwill in the bank.

The rumours are that the Aston Villa board are getting a little worried about Steven Gerrard and the direction of the club. The fans are not happy with the style of football being produced, while the huge investment made in the last two transfer windows have yet to turn into much improved results on the field.

A falling out with Tyrone Mings had threatened to split the dressing room in two and Gerrard is under pressure after another capitulation from his team in the 3-1 defeat at Crystal Palace.

At least Aston Villa have won their sole home Premier League game and they are facing a West Ham United team who played on Thursday night and who have struggled for form in the Premier League. The 3 losses in the League without scoring a goal is a worry, although David Moyes will feel his team have shown enough in the final third to change that as quickly as this weekend.

West Ham United were unfortunate to lose at the City Ground earlier this month, but you cannot ignore the fact that they have lost 6 of their last 7 away Premier League games. The poor end to last season has seeped into this one and I do think that West Ham United have looked vulnerable at the back, which should be very encouraging for Aston Villa.

The Hammers have won on their last 2 visits to Villa Park and scored at least three goals in both of those wins.

I do think David Moyes will be encouraging his team to get on the front foot and they can cause problems for Aston Villa, but the home team should also be able to have their successes when getting the ball into the final third.

The last 4 Premier League games between the clubs have all seen both teams score and all have also ended with at least three goals shared out. With some of the defensive issues that have been clear to see in both the home and away performances, I think this is another that should see goals flowing.

Wolves v Newcastle United Pick: The first live game on Sunday involves Newcastle United, but it would be a real surprise if this matches the intensity and attacking output we saw when they hosted Manchester City.

The fixture ended 3-3 with so much quality on display in the final third, but Newcastle United may not find it so easy to find the energy to bring that intensity to the field again.

Eddie Howe has clearly got a tune out of the squad, but Callum Wilson could be a big miss for Newcastle United. They did not create very much in their goalless draw at Brighton a couple of weeks ago and only Nick Pope's brilliance ensured Newcastle United were able to leave with a point.

Defending may be a little more comfortable against a Wolves team who have been struggling for goals and who have been in poor form towards the back end of last season which has seeped into the new campaign.

Alexander Mitrovic missed a Penalty in the last Premier League fixture at Molineux and that is the only reason Wolves have earned a point so far this season. If Mitrovic scores, there is every chance Wolves would have been heading into this fixture with 3 losses from their last 4 Premier League games.

I expect Wolves to have some chances if Newcastle United defend as poorly as they did at Brighton, but I also don't think Wolves are as effective going forward.

They do have some talented attackers and I think they will be dangerous when they click together, but Wolves and Newcastle United should feel they can largely contain the other. Set pieces are going to be key, but no Callum Wilson is a blow for Newcastle United and Wolves are still struggling for goals.

Games between these clubs have seen both teams regularly find the net against one another and the layers feel that may be the case again. However, their most recent game ended with a clean sheet produced by Newcastle United and I do think we will see one of these teams fail to find the net with the defences expected to be on top.

Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: If the first game at the City Ground with Nottingham Forest back in the Premier League is anything to go by, this is going to be an incredibly difficult ground to visit.

The fans made it a raucous atmosphere and Nottingham Forest played some very strong attacking football which will make them dangerous regardless of who they host.

However, it would be a mistake to forget some of the fortune that seemed to favour Nottingham Forest in the 1-0 win over West Ham United. The visitors hit the woodwork twice, missed a Penalty and also had at least one effort cleared off the line, while the Nottingham Forest goal was scrappy to say the least.

Steve Cooper won't care too much about that and neither will the fans, but the former will be aware that it may not be a sustainable approach. He will be looking for his Nottingham Forest team to be a threat going forward, but Cooper will want a better balance defensively if Nottingham Forest are going to earn another big result.

They are facing a Tottenham Hotspur team who have started slowly in all three Premier League games played before turning the screw. Antonio Conte will be demanding his players begin much more confidently as they are likely going to have to deal with the early Nottingham Forest pressure, but I do think the quality can tell in favour of the visiting team.

If they create anything like West Ham United, I would expect the likes of Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son to produce better composure in front of goal. Scoring first will be important for Tottenham Hotspur and I do think it will be a tough time for Nottingham Forest if they do fall behind, even with the home fans behind them.

All three of their Premier League opponents have been much stronger when it comes to the chance creation numbers in matches played by Nottingham Forest this season. They were well beaten at Newcastle United, and I do think Tottenham Hotspur can just remind their hosts about the level they have to find in every Premier League fixture they play.

Nottingham Forest will never roll over at home, not with the fans giving the players a lift, but I do think the big six clubs will cause plenty of problems for them barring a big improvement defensively. We have yet to see that and Tottenham Hotspur may be able to cover the Asian Handicap in a win in the second of the two live games being played on Sunday.

MY PICKS: Manchester United & Over 1 Total Goal @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Brentford @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)

Brighton @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Liverpool - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Aston Villa-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Wolves-Newcastle United Both Teams to Score- NO  @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.09 Bet Victor (2 Units)

August 2022/23: 9-15, - 13.28 Units (48 Units Staked, - 27.67% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 4

Go big at the back... Go big at the back, you can't go wrong.

Well things went wrong, they went massively wrong last weekend.

That's right, my 'big at the back' team produced nine points between the six of them!

With that in mind, I am just glad to get out of GameWeek 3 with 47 points and look for much better in GameWeek 4.

I am going to hold a transfer in what is a very busy time of the season as teams choose to rotate players in a bid to keep everyone as fresh as possible.

Pep Guardiola has made it clear that he will not be expecting Erling Haaland to play every three days and so the premium striker becomes a question mark for me. Yes, Manchester City create enough chances to think that Haaland could get twenty minutes in any game and likely bring in significant points, but he becomes an uncertain Captaincy choice.

This week that comes down to Mo Salah or Gabriel Jesus, but my lean is towards the former. I expect Jesus to have a very strong game, but Bournemouth have looked slightly weaker than Fulham and the extra point for a midfielder scoring cannot be dismissed.

I've also moved Andy Robertson to my watch list- he has not played well this season and I would not be surprised if he is given a rest at some point. Unfortunately for my team, that looks most likely to happen this weekend against Bournemouth, although Liverpool's poor start should mean Jurgen Klopp picks a very strong team.

Joao Cancelo is another- he is not playing nearly as far up the field as last season and at the prices it feels that money can be spread around to improve the whole squad.

My really big decision this week comes down to who should be the first player I bench- Leon Bailey scored during the week and assisted Ollie Watkins last weekend and has a good looking home game against West Ham United, but Pascal Gross continues to return and plays a vulnerable Leeds United team.

It is not an easy choice, but the lean at this time is with Gross, but only just.

I will have two transfers to use before the Tuesday deadline, although at this stage I think it is good to have a few more games to add to the data before needing to make any decision as to who to bring in. It is a big weekend for some of the players in my squad and I am expecting a lot more points than GameWeek 3 brought home.

US Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2018 (August 27th)

The final Grand Slam of the season gets underway on Monday with half of the First Round matches scheduled to be played.

The top half of both the men's and women's tournaments are played on Monday and I am hoping to build on the slightly profitable last week.

During the early part of the US Open my plan is to write out the analysis for a number of matches and then add any remaining Picks as I am in the midst of a busy week which coincides with the first week at the Slam in New York.

Regardless I will only place my Picks on any match I feel I have being able to research to the same level as usual and if they fit into my parameters.


One aspect I have changed is when I am going to make my Outright Picks, if any, in this tournament. I really think it is a tough event to read, especially from the women's side of things, and so a watching brief early in the event and then making a selection or two looks the best way to approach things.

Rafael Nadal is the only player that appealed from the men's draw and he is the second favourite here, but I will focus on the daily picks from the tournament.


Jack Sock - 4.5 games v Guido Andreozzi: 2018 has been an incredibly poor year for Jack Sock and the loss of form is a real surprise when you think the American won the Paris Masters and reached the Semi Final of the ATP World Tour Finals at the end of 2017. A 5-16 record in 2018 does not inspire any sort of confidence in Jack Sock so it may be a big surprise to read that I will not only be backing him to win in the First Round at the US Open, but also win by a large enough margin to cover this number.

Sock has never been a dominant player on the hard courts despite the feeling that he should be at his most happiest on this surface. He might have been 50-30 on the surface in 2016 and 2017 combined, but Sock has been winning with some tight numbers and the slight decline on serve and return on the hard courts in 2018 has seen Sock drop into a losing record.

He has only reached one Fourth Round at the US Open in the last three seasons and a couple of early losses makes him look a vulnerable Seed in this tournament. Sock is about to take a significant fall in the World Rankings in the months ahead if he can't put some wins together and confidence has looked short which makes it a bit of a surprise I am willing to back him, but the First Round draw looks about as good as Sock could have asked for.

There have been a couple of disappointing losses for Sock on the hard courts in 2018, but he won't have played someone like Guido Andreozzi who has played just eighteen hard court matches since the beginning of 2016. Andreozzi did reach the Third Round in Winston Salem last week having come through the Qualifiers and that may give him some belief to take into New York, but he has a vulnerable serve on the hard courts and that is where Sock has to take advantage.

The Argentinian has not won enough points behind serve to take advantage of what has been a decent return game. I do think Andreozzi can cause problems for Sock who simply has not played with any real confidence for some time but the latter should still have enough to win this in four sets which should also be good enough for him to cover this number.


Grigor Dimitrov v Stan Wawrinka: There is no doubt this is the best looking match in the men's First Round at the US Open and the layers are finding it tough to decide who will win when Grigor Dimitrov takes on Stan Wawrinka. There are some serious doubts about both of these players with neither showing strong form and it makes picking a winner slightly more awkward.

It is Dimitrov who has the better of the head to head, but their two previous matches at Grand Slam level have both been won by Stan Wawrinka. The last of those came at the last Grand Slam at Wimbledon where Dimitrov was knocked out by Wawrinka in the First Round but that was a very close match and the Bulgarian has to be kicking himself that he was not able to secure the win.

In general his performances on the hard courts have been disappointing too in 2018 and Dimitrov's numbers have really slipped off his recent standards. The real decline has come on the return of serve which was going to make him an over-rated favourite as far as I was concerned, but the draw means Dimitrov is actually the underdog in this match and I like his position there.

While Dimitrov's serve and return numbers are down, he is still winning very slightly more points in matches on the hard courts. That could be significant in this match because Stan Wawrinka has been struggling for consistency and has won less points than his opponents on this surface in 2018.

Wawrinka is having more issues on the return of serve than Dimitrov when it comes to hard court matches and that is where the narrow underdog in this match could be the right play. Both players have had some decent wins in Toronto and Cincinnati over the last month, but Wawrinka has had to dig deep to win a couple of his matches and the limited return game has been a factor as to why he has yet to reach the heights he can following injury.

Their match at Wimbledon was incredibly close and it won't take a lot to turn that around in favour of Dimitrov here. I am anticipating a very close match, but Dimitrov has the ever so slightly better percentage when it comes to the hold of serve and break of serve. That is enough to have me backing him as the underdog in this quality looking First Round match that could potentially go all the way to five sets on Monday.


Denis Kudla v Matteo Berrettini: This has the potential of being a very close First Round match when Matteo Berrettini and Denis Kudla meet at the US Open on Monday. These two players have already met twice on the hard courts in 2018 and both Berrettini and Kudla have won one match each with the Italian winning the most recent of those at the Indian Wells Masters tournament in March.

The first match was won by Kudla in the Australian Open Qualifiers but they have been closely matched and the feeling is that there won't be a lot between them when they meet in the First Round.

However I have to give the very slight edge to Kudla who should be more at home on the North American hard courts even though he did lose the match with Berrettini in Indian Wells. The Kudla numbers on the hard courts have been the slightly superior of the two and the gap is only increased when you take into consideration full ATP matches alone.

Both players have had a solid run on the hard courts over the last month with Kudla reaching the Washington Quarter Final and Berrettini making the Winston Salem Third Round last week. However Berrettini is holding at less than 80% in main Tour matches on the hard courts and he has really struggled when it comes to the break of serve and those numbers have taken a significant drop off when compared to the Italian's overall hard court numbers.

Kudla's numbers have not dropped at the same level when considering his main Tour matches on the hard courts alone. The American has held 85% of his service games in these matches on this surface and while he does not have the best returning stats, Kudla does have superior numbers to Berrettini which could make all the difference in a close First Round match.

With that in mind it also feels wrong to see Kudla down as the underdog in this match and I will back him to win and move through to the Second Round.


Vasek Pospisil v Lukas Lacko: When you look at the participants in this First Round match you could easily place this kind of match at a Challenger level tournament rather than at the final Grand Slam of the season. Both Vasek Pospisil and Lukas Lacko have struggled to take their game to the main ATP level in the last couple of years, but I expect both to be very happy with the draw in the First Round and the possibility to earning some big Ranking points.

The numbers of both players take a serious dent when you look at how they have performed on the main ATP level, but that shouldn't be a big concern in this match up.

Vasek Pospisil has had the more consistent success at the Challenger level on the hard courts compared with Lukas Lacko, but the latter has also reached the Final at that level. That is important to note, but I don't think you can ignore the fact that Pospisil has won titles on the Challenger circuit and reached a number of other Finals.

I have noticed that Lacko's numbers have not taken a serious decline in main Tour matches compared with the overall numbers in the same manner as Pospisil's have. However it is the Canadian who has produced much better numbers overall in 2018 and I do think this is the kind of match up in which he can thrive even if Pospisil has not really reached the same heights he did a couple of years ago.

The serve is all important for Pospisil and he is facing an opponent who is breaking opponents at less than 20% of the time in 2018. Add in how much better Pospisil has been able to return when facing the lower Ranked players compared to those he sees on the main Tour and I do think Pospisil can edge out Lacko in this First Round encounter.

Anything other than a close match would be a real surprise to me, but I do give Pospisil enough of an edge to want to back him at the prices in this one.


Heather Watson + 3.5 games v Ekaterina Makarova: It has been a long time since I have backed Heather Watson with a start on the Handicap simply because the British player tends to be very over-rated. 2018 has been a real struggle for Watson and she hasn't won a lot of matches which makes it hard to really trust her, but winning three Qualifiers has to stand her in good stead in the First Round.

The three wins came in dominant fashion which bodes well for Watson, but this is a big step up in class for her. Watson's drop down the World Rankings means she has not been able to play in either of the Premier Events in Canada or Cincinnati which were run over the last three weeks, but reaching a Final in an ITF tournament on the hard courts will certainly help the confidence of the player.

Watson is not as good as Ekaterina Makarova, but the Russian has yet to really put together some consistent performances after returning from an injury. She has been able to produce decent first serves and her return game is superior to the one that Watson will bring into the match, but the second serve is where Watson has to make some hay if she is going to produce the upset.

Makarova has played well in her last couple of tournaments in Cincinnati and New Haven, but the courts play much quicker in Cincinnati than they do in New York. That may mean Watson's decent defensive skills can help her cause some problems for Makarova as long as the British player is able to at least put some solid service games on the board.

I really feel that is a key for this entire match- Watson is not a great server, but her first serve can put her on the front foot and she has to make sure she gets enough of those in to keep Makarova under pressure. Doing that could give Watson the chance to at least steal a set and that may be enough for her to get within this number.

Watson will have her chances to win this match if she is able to get the better of the Makarova second serve, but I am simply looking for her to keep this competitive and ride the momentum of her Qualifier wins into the main draw.


Anastasija Sevastova - 2.5 games v Donna Vekic: On first glance I expected to see Anastasija Sevastova an even stronger favourite to win this First Round match against Donna Vekic than she is at the layers. After researching into this one nothing has changed and I do expect the Seeded player to move through to the Second Round after a strong performance at the US Open in 2017.

It has been a mixed month on the hard courts for Sevastova who reached the Quarter Final in Montreal and was then beaten very early in Cincinnati. However the conditions in New York are probably closer to Montreal than Cincinnati so I am not too concerned by the early defeat in the second of the Premier Events that were played on the hard courts this month.

Sevastova has produced some decent numbers on both the serve and return on the hard courts, but I do think she is a player that struggles to really break through against the top names. The second serve needs some work as it does for many players on the WTA Tour, but Sevastova has a decent first serve and backs that up with a strong return game which is expected to give her opponent some troubles.

Donna Vekic had a mixed few weeks on the hard courts too having reached the Final in Washington and coming within a point of winning the title but then failing to Qualify for the Cincinnati main draw. The 11-10 record on the hard courts may not show it, but the 22 year old has made some slight improvements in her overall numbers on the surface in 2018 compared with 2017 but I am not convinced that is enough to challenge Sevastova.

The numbers are stronger against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2018 compared with 2017, but they are still not convincing numbers and I do think Sevastova can continue her dominance of this match up. Sevastova has beaten Vekic in all three previous matches which have all been played on the hard courts, while the Latvian's last two wins have come at the US Open in 2017 and Doha in 2018 in straight sets.

It feels that is the most likely outcome of this one too and I will back Sevastova to cover the number in a win.

MY PICKS: Jack Sock - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov @ 2.30 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Denis Kudla @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Vasek Pospisil @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Heather Watson + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Anastasija Sevastova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)