Boxing Picks 2022- Oleksandr Usyk vs Anthony Joshua II (August 20th)

I've mentioned that July and August tend to be quieter months on the Boxing calendar, but there is no doubting the size of the bout when the Heavyweight World Titles are on the line.

It is a shame that the fight is taking place in Saudi Arabia, but Boxers need to maximise their worth when risking it all and this is a sport that has a history of going to places that are perhaps not the best from a moral or human rights stand point. I don't mind them doing it, because I understand the money that is being given to the promotions and fighters for coming over, but I will admit that I do get a touch irritated when it is framed as anything more than a financial decision.

'We will help bring about change' is a line you will hear often during this fight week, but it's embarrassing for the people speaking to really believe what they say. Again, I get why they say it, but personally I would have more respect for someone to simply say 'they paid the most, mine is a short career, and ultimately that is why we made the decision to host the fight here'.

Ramla Ali has been trotted out as proof women's rights are improving in the country... Someone should have asked her what she thinks of Salma al-Shehab who has just been jailed for thirty-four years for her Twitter activity highlighting how far those rights have yet to go in her home country.

So personally I think cut the crap and just get on with the job- don't try and justify the fight being hosted there on some moral crusade point, admit it was a big financial package and get on with it.

A couple of weeks ago my Boxing Picks returned after a six week break and Vergil Ortiz Jr gave us a winner from the sole selection on the day. I was very close to picking the Teofimo Lopez return last weekend, but ultimately decided the cards on August 20th are more appealing overall and hopefully it will see a build on the numbers already earned through the first seven months of the year.

Oleksandr Usyk vs Anthony Joshua II

Issues outside of the ring meant Oleksandr Usyk's rematch with Anthony Joshua had to be delayed as the Ukrainian returned to his homeland to defend it from the invasion launched by Russia in February.

He has since been granted permission to leave the country and to hoist the Ukrainian flag on the world stage by defending the belts won against Anthony Joshua last September in an upset.

Eleven months have passed since that first bout and it will have been a soul-searching time for Anthony Joshua. He has now lost half of his last four fights and Anthony Joshua decided he needed to make changes in his team to try and get the better of this rematch.

Rob McCracken is out and Robert Garcia has been hired as Anthony Joshua looks to find the answers to a conundrum posed by Oleksandr Usyk. Of course it is possible to beat any fighter with the right approach, but Joshua is going to be pressed as he was eleven months ago and I do think it is a huge challenge for the British fighter.

Unlike Andy Ruiz Jr, who essentially won the lottery with his win over Anthony Joshua in June 2019 as a short notice replacement, Oleksandr Usyk is committed to his craft and has huge ambitions beyond this rematch. He wants to be the first Heavyweight to hold all four World Titles as he did as a Cruiserweight, and I don't think this is someone who is going to overindulge on one success as Ruiz Jr did when completely out of shape and out-pointed in the rematch with Anthony Joshua in December 2019.

Tactically, Anthony Joshua has been criticised for trying to box a boxer, but I do think he was a little worried by the skills and quickness of Oleksandr Usyk. He now knows what to expect, which should mean Joshua is a little less gun-shy, but I am not sure it is the best approach for him to try and do everything a little better than he managed last September.

Instead I think Anthony Joshua has to take risks- we have seen Usyk hurt at Cruiserweight before- and that means trying to push the tempo on him early and often. Conditioning may be a concern for Joshua, but that won't matter if he forces a stoppage early, and I don't think Anthony Joshua is capable of outboxing Oleksandr Usyk over the full Twelve Rounds.

He could try the Teofimo Lopez approach who put it on the smaller Vasyl Lomachenko and built a big enough lead on the cards to withstand the late push, but I am not sure Anthony Joshua has the gas tank to try that.

Back in September, Oleksandr Usyk came close to a late Stoppage and my feeling is that he is highly motivated and inspired by what is going on in his home country. He may have to weather more of a storm than he faced in the first fight at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, but I think Oleksandr Usyk can do that and this time he may find a bit more of a reaction from his own punches as Joshua potentially tires.

While most of the focus in the United Kingdom has been on the British fighter and how he can change tactically, I think Oleksandr Usyk will have a similar approach to last time and when he fought Tony Bellew. Keep things contained early, then begin to build mental and physical pressure on his opponent and start dropping heavier shots.

Unlike last year, this time Oleksandr Usyk will know full well he can hurt Anthony Joshua and I think that means looking for the bigger shots earlier than the Twelfth Round when he almost got the referee to step in. Starting a bit earlier may just see Usyk get on top and find a way to get this one done without the judges and I think the reigning World Champion will find a Stoppage at somewhere around the Tenth or Eleventh Round.

Unsurprisingly, a pretty decent undercard has been put together for this big summer event.

Sky Sports purchased the United Kingdom rights to the fight and I think they would have had some influence in getting Ben Whittaker out on the card in his second fight since turning pro. Of course he is also signed with Anthony Joshua's management team so this is a solid spot in which to keep his name very much in the public eye with big things expected of him.

He is facing an unbeaten opponent in Petar Nosic who was last out at the Super Middleweight limit rather than the Light-Heavyweight and Nosic will know all about Ben Whittaker's power having been stopped by him in the amateur ranks. The pro game is different, but I have no doubt that Whittaker has been put in this spot to impress and I think he gets the job done in the first couple of Rounds in a scheduled Six Rounder.

Badou Jack is also in action and this is going to be his third fight in a row in the Middle East. While he is taking on an unbeaten American, bringing Richard Rivera back up in weight coupled with the massive experience edge in favour of Jack should mean the former World Champion gets this one done inside the distance.

I am also expecting Callum Smith to have too much quality for Mathieu Bauderlique, although the French southpaw should be given respect with a sole defeat on his resume and with a win over Igor Mikhalkin in his last fight to earn the European Light Heavyweight Belt.

We have surprisingly not seen Smith back in the ring since a huge Light Heavyweight debut on the undercard of the first Oleksandr Usyk-Anthony Joshua bout last September in North London. Perhaps a big fight could not be secured, but this represents a really good chance for Callum Smith to put on a big display and show the rest of the Division he is ready to compete for World Titles in 2023.

He has plenty of power and I have a feeling Callum Smith is going to be very suited to the weight and can produce another devastating win.

And then we come to the main undercard bout which features Filip Hrgovic and Zhilei Zhang in what is an IBF eliminator and will make the winner mandatory for a crack at the winner of the main event.

They were supposed to fight earlier this year, but Hrgovic had to pull out as he sadly dealt with the passing of his father. He is motivated to impress in Saudi Arabia and I do think this is a genuine potential World Champion in the making.

Of course Zhilei Zhang has to be respected for being unbeaten, but he was almost undone by Jerry Forrest and I simply believe he will be found out at this level.

The 39 year old could be potentially dangerous in the early Rounds, but I expect Filip Hrgovic to display the better conditioning and eventually begin to unload some big shots that has the Chinese Heavyweight worn down and stopped.

My feeling is that will really begin to tell in the mid-Rounds and that is where the Croatian can cement a big win.

Emanuel Navarrete vs Eduardo Baez

Four years ago Emanuel Navarrete announced himself with an upset of Isaac Dogboe and another comprehensive display in the rematch had people taking notice.

He has since moved up to Featherweight and won a vacant World Title in this Division too, but the feeling is that there are limitations in his boxing which means his handlers are making sure he is well matched until a truly big fight develops.

That could be a Unification against Rey Vargas, but first Navarrete has to make sure he is not overlooking Eduardo Baez.

The Mexican will come to fight, but he has not really got enough to suggest he can earn the upset. One of the previous losses suffered by Eduardo Baez has come against big punching Mauricio Lara who managed to deck him twice, although the cards for needed in a scheduled Six Rounder that day.

I don't think Emanuel Navarrete hits harder than Lara, who is a huge puncher at the weight, but I do think he is someone who can systematically break down an opponent and I think we will see that here. Eduardo Baez has only won seven of his twenty-three fights inside the distance so I am not sure he will have enough pop to deter the Champion from coming forward and ultimately I can see a late stoppage as the accumulation breaks down Baez.

MY PICKS: Oleksandr Usyk to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.33 William Hill (2 Units)

Ben Whittaker to Win Between 1-2 @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Badou Jack by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Callum Smith to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.60 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Filip Hrgovic to Win Between 4-6 @ 3.20 Coral (2 Units)

Emanuel Navarrete to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2022: 27-42, + 18.47 Units (123 Units Staked, + 15.02% Yield)

Premier League Picks and Fantasy Football GameWeek 3 2022/23 (August 20-22)

The World Cup Finals have been placed in November and that means we already into GameWeek 3 of the Fantasy Football game with the Premier League likely have to taken shape by the time the month ends.

The transfer window is open right up until then so squads are going to be moulded in that time, although it could mean some of the teams are already below par in terms of points and expectations.

A little tangent- the saying 'life is short' is one that most will use in every day life, but I really don't know if anyone really thinks too deeply about it unless something tragic happens.

It certainly feels that way for me as a good friend sadly passed away on Wednesday evening.

He was a truly top bloke and someone who could be relied upon through good times and bad.

A good life that has impacted so many others and the outpouring of messages just shows the value of the person.

I just hope he is somewhere where he can see how much people admired, respected and loved him, even if it feels the world has been robbed at a young age.

RIP mate, I'm sure we will see you down the road.

United Corner- Is this Rock Bottom?

Most Manchester United fans would have expected it would take Erik ten Hag some time to get his methods across to the players and really start to build momentum, but even in the worst nightmare scenario, not many would have predicted United would lose both opening Premier League games.

The defeat to Brighton saw Manchester United try and fight back after giving up a 0-2 half time lead, but the capitulation at Brentford was embarrassing with the team trailing 4-0 after just thirty-five minutes.

In the cold light of day, you could argue that mistakes have proved to be the difference for Manchester United, but this is far from an ideal start and the side are sitting bottom of the Premier League table. With Liverpool to come on Monday, things may get worse before they get better and a really poor summer of recruitment is being shown up.

Everything that was stated by the club and the suggestion of acting in a new and improved way has turned out like most things under the current ownership- a mixture of bluff and bullshit!

The bottom line is that very little has changed at the top, even with the change in CEO, and Manchester United are clearly lacking direction. The recruitment has been a massive problem over the last decade and the blame can be laid squarely at the feet of the Glazer Family who have left incompetent people in charge of the club for far too long.

As long as the dividends were being paid, the Glazers could not care less about the on-field performances and that is clearly based on their experiences in the NFL. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers may have recently won the Super Bowl, but struggled for almost two decades as poor ownership decisions left the team floundering and a similar approach has hurt Manchester United.

One major difference is that the NFL has much of their financial success earned as a collective so all franchises will make money and work under a salary cap regardless of whether turning out successful or not.

Not in European Football.

Failure to play in the Champions League is a major dent to the Glazer approach and the failure to push through the European Super League and the guaranteed place in the top European competition has hurt the financial power of the club. With an ownership all about how much they can take, it is no surprise the pursestrings have been tightened and now reports suggest the Glazers are looking for an investor.

This is a critical time for a fanbase that have opposed this takeover since 2005 and I do think we are as close to seeing them finally take their money and leave as we have ever been.

There is only so much the Glazers can do to maximise the commercial appeal of Manchester United and Dick 'Ed Woodward has proven to be off the mark when he suggested that on-field performance will not affect the commercial power of the club. Sponsors are getting nervous, the big contracts are on the verge of running out and it feels like the club is running on fumes in terms of cash.

With a Stadium and training facilities that need a lot of work, and with the team struggling massively on the pitch, the Glazers have to be considering all options.

Further protests on Monday should continue to highlight the issue for the media and I am hopeful that this is the beginning of the end of this crappy ownership.

Even the potential signing of Casemiro stinks of desperation and a last ditch effort to appease the fans.

I don't doubt his quality, but this is yet another thirty year old who is leaving a huge club to come to Manchester United and the club have signed so many of those in recent years that have failed to pan out. Ultimately the likes of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich do not sell players they don't wish to sell and Casemiro has won it all in his career, so motivation has to be questioned.

He will be playing in an unfamiliar League, and it does smack of a last throw of the dice from the club to cool the growing tensions between the owners and the fans.

I always hope United are successful, but defeats may not be a bad thing if it means the Glazers decide its best to cash in- they are simply not going to ever do what is needed to make United successful as a Football Club again and that has been proven ever since Sir Alex Ferguson and David Gill left in 2013.

Instead of appointing the very best players to fill football roles at the club, the owners have been happy as long as they can pick up dividends and build their own bank balance, but it feels there isn't much more room to operate in that manner. They are now reaping what they sow with a mess of a playing squad and I can only imagine how toxic Old Trafford is going to be if the old rivals rock up and secure another big win on Monday evening.

With the television cameras around for the big fixture, I expect the sentiment against the Glazers to be broadcasted around the world for all to see.

The players don't get a pass from me, especially after they dropped their heads in the loss at Brentford. The poor performances have been dragging on for months and I don't blame Cristiano Ronaldo for wanting to leave considering the lack of effort or desire shown by his team-mates.

It may be best for the club in the long-term anyway, but I am not sure Ronaldo deserves some of the abuse that parts of the fanbase feel he does. Standards have slipped massively at the club since he left in 2009 and Ronaldo's frustration could be on display for all to see if he does take part in an interview he has suggested he will be releasing after the transfer window closes.

On Monday I just want to see the eleven starters show they know what it means to play for Manchester United, but even that basic request seems to have been beyond the players over the last six months so I won't be holding my breath.

Premier League Picks GameWeek 3

Tottenham Hotspur v Wolves Pick: It might not have been a direct sequel to 'Battle of the Bridge' in 2016, but Tottenham Hotspur's draw at Chelsea was a feisty affair all the way past the final whistle.

Antonio Conte was sent off alongside Thomas Tuchel and that means he could be facing a potential touchline ban for this Premier League fixture. The Italian has had a major impact on the Tottenham Hotspur squad as well as the boardroom, but he should have his team well prepared even if he is forced to watch from the stands/outside of the Stadium.

Tottenham Hotspur cannot afford to use that as an excuse as they prepare to face bogey club Wolves, a team who have won 3 of the 4 Premier League fixtures hosted by Spurs since 2018. Last season Wolves left with a 0-2 win and they have been a team who have been able to create plenty of chances against Tottenham Hotspur.

However, it is hard to expect the same when you think of how toothless Wolves have looked in their first two League fixtures. There is creativity within the squad, but Raul Jimenez has been a big miss and finding someone to put a finishing touch on the football being played is a major problem for Bruno Lage.

Wolves are likely to be active in the transfer market right up until the deadline, but they may be a little short this weekend.

This has been a tough match for Tottenham Hotspur, but they have scored six goals to open the Premier League season and have plenty of quality in the final third. There does feel like a few more options off the bench too and I do think Spurs are going to have enough to secure the three points on Saturday, even if they have to overcome a couple of mental obstacles to do so.

Under Antonio Conte, the players have looked much more hardened though and I do think they will have the better of the play if not spotting Wolves a two goal lead within 18 minutes as they did in February. Conditions should be much more comfortable for the players compared with last weekend and Spurs will feel this transitioning Wolves team are still looking a little vulnerable at the back.

Add in the strong home form in the Premier League that Tottenham Hotspur have produced and the fact that Wolves have lost 4 of their last 5 away games and I have to believe Spurs will be too good.

I have to credit Wolves for being a stubborn team that are rarely blown away, especially away from home, but Tottenham Hotspur may have enough goals in the team to cover this Asian Handicap line.

Crystal Palace v Aston Villa Pick: Patrick Vieira and Steven Gerrard were combative midfield generals in their playing days in the Premier League and both are pretty big personalities now their main roles are giving instructions from the dugouts.

Both will be expected to push Crystal Palace and Aston Villa further along after their first season (or number of months in Gerrard's case) as managers of their respective clubs.

Crystal Palace certainly drew the short end of the stick when it came to the opening fixtures, but Patrick Vieira has to feel his side have deserved even more than the solitary point earned against Arsenal and Liverpool. They have played pretty well in both games, but there is also an improvement needed in defence as well as better composure in the final third if Crystal Palace are going to kick on up the League table.

Their visitors Aston Villa were perhaps a little unfortunate to lose at Bournemouth a couple of weeks ago, but just about held on for the three points against Everton last weekend. Steven Gerrard is looking for more consistency from his players, but the injury to Diego Carlos is a big blow.

While Aston Villa took four points from Crystal Palace in the Premier League last season, the underlying numbers suggest The Eagles were very unfortunate in both games. Despite playing better opposition than Aston Villa, Crystal Palace have arguably looked the more dangerous this season too and I think they can get the better of this opponent this time around.

Lacking a clinical finisher is an issue for Crystal Palace, but I expect they can create the better chances on the day and may just nick the three points on offer.

Everton v Nottingham Forest Pick: Both of these teams were involved in pretty exciting football matches in the Premier League last weekend, but Everton paid for starting slowly at Villa Park as they were beaten 2-1 at Aston Villa.

They almost rallied from 2-0 down and had some late chances to equalise, but Frank Lampard was too late in changing tactics and a close match went against his team.

On the other hand Steve Cooper's attacking approach paid off for Nottingham Forest as they won their first Premier League game in twenty-three years when beating West Ham United. That attacking approach may have been pleasing on the eye, but Nottingham Forest were poor at the back and only a lack of composure and a couple of inches prevented The Hammers from taking a deserved point back to East London.

I do think Nottingham Forest will be involved in some high-scoring games this season with that approach in mind, but they will have to tighten up defensively if they want to avoid relegation. On another day, those inches would have gone against them and Nottingham Forest would have had to take the loss even though they created plenty of chances of their own.

Home form is going to be key for Nottingham Forest, but they will travel to Goodison Park feeling like there is a real opportunity to earn something.

Everton have been struggling for months under Frank Lampard, and injuries have perhaps blunted them in the final third. Goodison Park proved to be a big factor in Everton avoiding the drop last season though and I do think Frank Lampard will look for his team to get on the front foot much earlier than he allowed them to do against Chelsea and Aston Villa.

He will feel that Nottingham Forest's defence will offer up chances, but I do think Steve Cooper's team will be better than they were in a one-sided loss at Newcastle United on the opening weekend. Everton have signed the likes of Conor Coady to give them a better balance defensively, but big chances continue to be given away and it will take time for the organisation to really come together.

An early goal could really get this fixture going on Saturday and I do think the porous defences we have seen from the opening two weekends could be exposed. Everton's attack has question marks, but they created enough chances at Aston Villa to be confident and Nottingham Forest will be playing with real belief after their first win of the season too.

Backing at least three goals to be shared out looks to be the play.

Leicester City v Southampton Pick: Pressure has to be building on both Brendan Rodgers and Ralph Hasenhuttl as respective managers of Leicester City and Southampton.

Brendan Rodgers overachieved with Leicester City as they missed out on the Champions League places on the final day in back to back seasons, but last season the injury bug knocked them down to 8th place. Financial balancing of the books means Leicester City have not been as active in the transfer window as Rodgers would have wanted, while Wesley Fofana is unsettled and the likes of James Maddison and Jamie Vardy have been linked with moves away from the club.

That will make it even more difficult for Brendan Rodgers and Leicester City have not made the start to the season that they would have hoped.

Blowing the 2-0 lead over Brentford on the opening weekend would have hurt, but Leicester City have continued to show they can create chances and score goals. That will be encouraging as they prepare to face a Southampton team that have conceded at least two goals in 8 straight Premier League games.

Most of those have ended in defeat, unsurprisingly, and Ralph Hasenhuttl is feeling the pressure from the stands as well as reports that players are no longer convinced about the manager and his ability to get the best out of them. There is some character in the squad as shown in the 2-2 draw with Leeds United last weekend after Southampton recovered from 0-2 behind, but the defensive issues have yet to be resolved.

I expect Leicester City to take advantage of those with the obvious quality they have in the squad, but Brendan Rodgers will be hoping for better from his own defensive players. They have conceded six goals already this season, but Southampton have scored six goals in their last 8 away Premier League games and I think Leicester City can be backed to win a game that features at least two goals.

Bournemouth v Arsenal Pick: Go back a couple of weeks and there were not many people who would have expected big things from Bournemouth, especially not in light of the comments Scott Parker had been making about the lack of squad depth.

There won't have been many expecting Bournemouth to beat Aston Villa, but Scott Parker's men showed they are willing to fight for their manager. Those three points will give Bournemouth confidence, especially in their home games, but they were shown last Saturday that there is a big gap to bridge against the very best teams in the Division.

This is going to be a big test for Bournemouth, but Parker will be determined to see his players work as hard as possible to contain an opponent who will be feeling very good about themselves.

Arsenal have won both opening Premier League games and are one of just two teams to do that, while the summer signings have made strong impacts already. Gabriel Jesus in particular was in stunning form in the 4-2 win over Leicester City last Saturday and Arsenal will be travelling to the south coast looking to keep the momentum going before home games against Fulham and Aston Villa.

The away form was a little inconsistent last season and that proved to be costly for Arsenal in their bid to finish in the top four. An opening victory at Crystal Palace will be another boost, while Arsenal won away games at Burnley, Norwich City, Leeds United and Watford last season.

They scored at least three goals in 3 of those 4 away victories against some of the biggest strugglers in the Premier League and I do think Arsenal have the attacking players to secure a good win here.

Scoring first will be very important for both clubs- Arsenal have yet to come from behind in a match, but they will feel an opening goal will allow them to dictate the tempo of the match and wear down the newly promoted hosts.

I expect Bournemouth to play with some discipline and look to fill up spaces to try and contain Arsenal. It worked against Aston Villa, but Bournemouth have not really found the balance between attack and defence and I think Arsenal are plenty creative and can find the scoring chances to secure a strong win on their travels.

Leeds United v Chelsea Pick: The Romelu Lukaku experiment has to be seen as a failure at Stamford Bridge and the Belgian international has left to return to Inter Milan this summer.

Timo Werner is enough to depart for a former club where he had found his goal-scoring boots, but it does leave Chelsea with the same problem they have seemingly had for a couple of seasons.

Namely scoring enough goals.

It wasn't an issue in the 2-2 draw with Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, but there is still a feeling that a more composed number nine than Kai Havertz may have made the difference for them. Chelsea created some really good quality chances, but needed a centre back and a right wing back to score the goals and that is hard to expect every week.

A Penalty secured the win at Everton on the opening weekend in another game where Chelsea created some good openings, but could not find someone to take the chances created. It is a problem for Thomas Tuchel and may be the main reason Chelsea are not able to close the gap on the likes of Manchester City and Liverpool this season.

Creating chances should not be a problem against Leeds United who have allowed Wolves and Southampton to find good avenues towards their goal. Jesse Marsch will know that their relegation battle was largely down to the huge amount of goals Leeds United shipped last season and conceding to those first two opponents is a worry.

This weekend Leeds United will be facing a much stronger team than Wolves and Southampton, although the manager has to be happy with what he has seen from his team going forward. Losing Raphinha will have stung, but Leeds United have seen Rodrigo step up and this is a team that have been creating chances and will put opponents under pressure.

The win over Wolves will be a real boost for the players and the fans who had gotten used to seeing Leeds United being beaten in games at Elland Road towards the end of the last campaign. They actually lost 6 of their last 8 at Elland Road in the Premier League, but fighting back from a goal down to defeat Wolves will be confidence boosting.

However, this is a big step up and it was only in May that Chelsea left Elland Road with a deserved 0-3 win. On that day Mason Mount got things going early, but goalscorer Christian Pulisic and Lukaku will be unlikely to be involved (the former is being linked with a move away and Lukaku has moved back to Inter Milan as mentioned).

Chelsea did create decent openings in that win and managed to score three goals in the home win over Leeds United too. I do think they will have enough in the final third to break down a team giving up too many chances and the likes of Mount, Raheem Sterling and Kai Havertz should have opportunities to get off the mark.

Leeds United will always be tough at home where the fans get right behind them, but they have lost plenty of games here over the calendar year and I think Chelsea will win a relatively high-scoring encounter.

Newcastle United v Manchester City Pick: Two unbeaten Premier League clubs that have links with the Middle East will meet on Sunday afternoon at St James' Park in the second live offering of the day.

It may take a little bit of time, but Newcastle United fans will be hoping their club follows the path set out by Manchester City who have used state-sponsored funds to move to the top of English Football.

At the moment it is a slow burner for Newcastle United who have to deal with different financial rules compared with those around when Chelsea and Manchester City were taken over. So instead of the vast sums of cash being splashed out this summer, Eddie Howe has been tasked with bringing quality to improve the squad and he looks to have done that.

Nick Pope, Kieran Tripper, Sven Botman and Bruno Guimaraes have been signed in the last couple of windows and definitely give Newcastle United a stronger look. The manager also should be given credit for extracting more out of the players he inherited when taking over from Steve Bruce and Newcastle United have responded to Eddie Howe which is most highlighted by the strong results earned since he moved into the manager's office.

Eddie Howe will know this is a tough test for his players though and it cannot be ignored that his Newcastle United team were beaten by all of the teams that finished in the top four in the second half of last season. Liverpool won here narrowly, while Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City thumped Newcastle United at home and this is a litmus test as to where the current group stands.

Being at home is a big help and there is no doubt the fans at St James' Park will come out and get behind their team.

However, they are facing a Manchester City team who look to be in mid-season form already having beaten West Ham United and Bournemouth without breaking much of a sweat. The numbers have been very strong at both ends of the pitch in those wins with Manchester City creating plenty of chances, but not giving too much away at all, and I think they will have the quality to wear down Newcastle United.

Eddie Howe's team have won 8 of their last 9 home Premier League games and should be respected, but Manchester City have been dominant at the top of the Division. They look a very big price to win this one with another clean sheet when you think of some of the issues Newcastle United had in creating chances at home last season (according to the underlying numbers), but I will move past that simply because of the threat posed by the home team from set pieces and the pacy counter-attack.

Containing Manchester City may be the approach, but this is a team that can beat you in multiple ways now they have Erling Haaland leading the line. I think Newcastle United have to try and play on the front foot at home, which could aid the Norwegian striker, while a more defensive approach could see the creative midfielders slowly wear down the defenders as they tend to do.

I very much doubt this game is won by four or five goal margins as Manchester City secured over Eddie Howe's Newcastle United last season, but I do think the visitors will prove to be too strong on the day.

The clean sheet may come, but even without it, Manchester City have shown enough in the attacking third to believe they can cover this Asian Handicap line that has been set.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Crystal Palace Draw No Bet @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Everton-Nottingham Forest Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Leicester City & Over 1 Total Goal @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)

Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)

Chelsea & Over 1 Total Goal @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)

August 2022: 7-10, - 7.86 Units (34 Units Staked, - 23.12% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 3

There have been complaints about the pricing of players in the official fantasy football game this season and that has allowed teams to be created with only players from the big six clubs.

Underachieving results from Liverpool and Manchester United have dented the totals of those that have gone in that direction, but the main template looks to be one that is paying off for most.

Joao Cancelo, Reece James, Gabriel Martinelli, Erling Haaland and Gabriel Jesus have all had big hauls already this season and they are forming the spine for most.

The key is to get the best out of the 'others', but my team has been let down by Marcus Rashford and Leon Bailey. People seem to be moving players much more quickly than normal so I lost a touch of value on Rashford on Saturday night in the aftermath of Manchester United's thumping at Brentford, but I decided to move him out prior to losing another 100,000 in team value.

Pascal Gross was the choice in a bracket that is lacking some options, while I had to also settle for value being dropped in Leon Bailey.

Going into Friday my main choice is either upgrading Bailey or Nico Williams and go for five at the back- Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur look like they can produce some clean sheets and I do think my focus is on improving Williams ahead of Nottingham Forest's games against Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City.

However, Ivan Perisic's doubt about minutes makes it easier to target an Arsenal player, even if I missed the price rise on Oleksandr Zinchenko. Their fixture list looks kinder than the Spurs games coming up and I do think Arsenal have been playing well enough to put some strong results together before the visit to Manchester United early next month.

I can then have a think about what to do with Andrew Robertson by giving him two more games to try and impress from a fantasy standpoint, while Leon Bailey won't be lasting much longer. However, my decision on what to do with Bailey could depend on Robertson and whether he needs a major downgrade to rebuild the midfield options in the squad.

Last week was a pretty solid one with 70 points on the board, but I was fed up with the lack of impact Marcus Rashford and Leon Bailey have had.

I'm giving the two Liverpool defenders two games to see how they respond to the poor start of the season, while my decision to move Rashford out for Pascal Gross was largely down to wanting to avoid another hit to the transfer budget. I do like how Pascal Gross has started the season for Brighton and there looks to be some solid fixtures coming up between now and the September international break, the most likely time I will be using my Wild Card.

As I have mentioned, I might not need Leon Bailey to start this week if I strengthen the final defensive position in my squad.

The Captain choice comes down to one of three players- Erling Haaland, Gabriel Jesus or Mohamed Salah.

I hate placing the armband on someone who is playing Manchester United, but if they don't want to be a serious club, the head has to rule the heart. Liverpool have scored at least four goals in each of their last two Premier League visits to Old Trafford, while they also hit four against their old rivals at Anfield.

With Manchester United giving up plenty of chances, Mo Salah could have a very big game and he has scored eight goals in the last four games between United and Liverpool.

Gabriel Jesus is going to have his backers after a two goal, two assist performance last week against Leicester City. He can be inconsistent and I would only use him as Captain if I am planning to stick with him across the next three games, which all look strong for Arsenal on paper.

Finally Erling Haaland who only touched the ball eight times last week, but who had an assist with one of those. I think he may actually be more effective away from home when Manchester City are likely to have more spaces to exploit, although Haaland would have scored last week if Phil Foden was less selfish when shooting instead of giving the Norwegian an easy tap-in.

He is a solid choice if Newcastle United defend as they did at Brighton last weekend. However, Eddie Howe's team have been stronger at St James' Park and it does feel like Mohamed Salah is the best selection, even if the heart is doing its best to overrule the head.

Cincinnati Masters Tennis Picks 2021 (August 20th)

It was a pretty miserable Thursday which has dented the weekly totals, but the Cincinnati Masters will continue on Friday with plenty of Quarter Final action to come across both the ATP and WTA events.

This is a big chance for players to lay down a marker for the US Open and all sixteen players heading out onto the courts on Friday will feel that is the case. There are some good looking matches to come and I am looking for a much more effective day for the Tennis Picks to try and secure a fourth winning tournament in succession.

Felix Auger-Aliassime + 3.5 games v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Two of the brightest stars on the ATP Tour will meet in a big Quarter Final at the Cincinnati Masters on a day when Rafael Nadal withdrew from the upcoming US Open. Novak Djokovic is yet to return to the court after his two losses at the Olympic Games which left him without a Medal, and that could mean there is a vacuum to be filled at the top of the next Grand Slam.

It is a vacuum that the likes of Felix Auger-Aliassime and Stefanos Tsitsipas will be hoping to fill and this is a tournament from which they can gain a huge amount of confidence. Winning a Masters on a fast hard court just days before the US Open gets set to begin would be huge for either player and the performances so far this week have been very impressive.

Both players have dropped a set on their way through the draw, although Stefanos Tsitsipas has had to play one fewer match thanks to his superior World Ranking.

The numbers from both players have been really impressive with Felix Auger-Aliassime holding 88% of his service games played and the young Canadian has faced just two break points on his way to beating Karen Khachanov and Matteo Berrettini. Those are two very good looking wins for Auger-Aliassime who has also got his eyes firmly where he would want them to be when it comes to the return of serve with 30% of those games ending in a break.

It is unlikely that Felix Auger-Aliassime will have things as good as that when he faces the Stefanos Tsitsipas serve. The hold percentage is at 96% for Stefanos Tsitsipas in the faster conditions of Cincinnati, although those same conditions have made it difficult when it comes to the return of serve as Tsitsipas has only managed a break in 15% of those return games faced.

The feeling is that this could become a serve-dominated match, while Stefanos Tsitsipas will feel he has the mental edge having won the last three hard court matches competed against Felix Auger-Aliassime. Only one of those wins has been straight-forward though and Felix Auger-Aliassime has held 84% of his service games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 85% mark in the head to head on the hard courts.

There may not be much between them on the day in this Quarter Final and so it feels like a lot of games for the Canadian to be given as the underdog. I think Felix Auger-Aliassime is playing well enough to maybe steal a set and even the upset cannot be completely ruled out, but taking the games on offer just means a little more leeway for the younger player against a quality opponent like Stefanos Tsitsipas.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has been the stronger returner of the two players so far this week and it may be enough to keep this close.

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Casper Ruud: This looks like a really good match on paper as the Olympic Champion takes on a player that won three consecutive titles on the Tour since Wimbledon came to an end. Casper Ruud won those titles on the clay courts, his favoured surface, but he had played well in Toronto and backed that up with another strong week in Cincinnati.

Alexander Zverev did not play in Toronto after winning the Gold Medal in Tokyo behind some exceptional tennis, but he has not missed a beat. The competition early in Cincinnati may not be up to the level that Zverev will see in the remainder of this tournament, but you cannot take anything away from the German who has been dominant in his wins over Lloyd Harris and Guido Pella.

He reached the US Open Final last year and blew a 2-0 lead, but Alexander Zverev will be looking to head to New York City with a lot more momentum behind him. The faster conditions in Cincinnati has seen him yet to face a break point on his serve, while Alexander Zverev has been able to use the scoreboard pressure to aid him in breaking in 31% of return games played over the first two matches in the tournament.

That will mean there is some pressure on Casper Ruud who is on the brink of breaking into the top 10 of the World Rankings and who has had a strong season on the hard courts already. His serve has also been a potent weapon for Ruud on the hard courts, but he has not returned nearly as well as Alexander Zverev with 20% of return games ending in a break of serve.

The Norwegian player has won 33% of return points played compared with Zverev's 39% mark and I do think that is going to be the difference between the players on the day. Both will feel the serve can be a huge weapon for them, but Alexander Zverev looks capable of getting into the return games with a lot more consistency than Casper Ruud.

Casper Ruud was well beaten by Stefanos Tsitsipas in Toronto and, before his win over Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in the Third Round, he had lost five consecutive matches against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts heading into this tournament. As much as I like Casper Ruud, it is hard to ignore the fact he has yet to beat a top 10 Ranked player on the hard courts and, even worse, he has yet to take a set from them.

I expect Alexander Zverev to have a little too much all around for Ruud in this Quarter Final too and I will back the German to cover the handicap mark as he keeps his winning run going.

Barbora Krejcikova + 4.5 games v Ashleigh Barty: The winners of the last two Grand Slam tournaments are meeting in the Quarter Final in Cincinnati and there will be plenty of people who would be happy to back either Barbora Krejcikova or Ashleigh Barty to add another Major to their trophy cabinet at the US Open.

The rise of Barbora Krejcikova continues to impress and she has become one of the harder players to beat on the WTA Tour. Winning the French Open underlined her progress, but it would have been easy for the Czech player to move in the same direction as so many first time Grand Slam Winners and struggle with the weight of expectation on her shoulders.

That has been far from the case for Barbora Krejcikova who has reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and been beaten by the eventual Winner of that tournament as well as the Olympic Gold Medal around another title success in Prague. Her performances this week have been very, very impressive and the serve has been a particularly strong weapon for her.

I do think that will be tested by the World Number 1 and Wimbledon Champion Ashleigh Barty who has comfortably seen off her first two opponents in Cincinnati. The win over Krejcikova on her run to the Wimbledon title will only increase the confidence of the Australian and Ashleigh Barty has also been serving well well in the faster conditions of Cincinnati.

The second serve can be one that is vulnerable and I think that will help Barbora Krejcikova, although Ashleigh Barty has been the superior return player in this tournament. Those return numbers have been consistently stronger than Barbora Krejcikova's on the hard courts and I do think Barty is a deserving favourite, although this could be a tough number of games to cover for the favourite.

When they met at Wimbledon, Ashleigh Barty did beat Barbora Krejcikova by a five game margin, but it was a much more competitive match than that. It was the Czech player who earned the majority of the break points on the day and I think she is playing well enough to at least make this match closer on the scoreboard even if Ashleigh Barty is ultimately able to come through with a win.

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Two veterans of the WTA Tour and multiple time Grand Slam Champions will be looking to keep a strong week going which could set them up to be one of the dark horses for success at the US Open. There isn't much that Petra Kvitova and Angelique Kerber won't know about one another as they get set for a sixteenth professional match against one another and there hasn't been much to separate them with Kvitova leading 8-7.

They have split one match each in 2021, but those have been played on the clay courts (Petra Kvitova won in straight sets) and on the grass (Angelique Kerber won in three sets).

Both players are very competent on the hard courts which makes this another potentially close match to call, but I do think Petra Kvitova has been playing the superior tennis so far this week. All three matches have been won in dominant straight sets and Petra Kvitova's tennis has been in very good shape in both the serve and return departments.

Angelique Kerber has dropped a set in each of her last two wins and she has had to dig much deeper than Kvitova in her own run to the Quarter Final. No one will be surprised to read that Kerber has been returning effectively in the tournament, but the serve has been vulnerable and the German has faced an astonishing 29 break points in her last two matches.

She was a little fortunate to get past Elina Svitolina in the Second Round and Jelena Ostapenko created the same amount of break points as Angelique Kerber in the Third Round with only the superior tennis at big moments helping Kerber through to the Quarter Final. There is no doubt that Angelique Kerber is going to have to serve a lot better when facing someone like Petra Kvitova who can be very aggressive on the return and will feel the faster conditions allows her to hit through Kerber here in Cincinnati.

It was Angelique Kerber who won their sole meeting in Cincinnati, but that was back in 2012 and it is Petra Kvitova who has won the last two hard court matches these two have competed in. The last of those came in 2019 which makes them largely irrelevant, but you can't ignore the fact that Petra Kvitova has been the stronger hard court player of the two in 2021 in general, while also producing the superior tennis over the last week.

That could be important for the Czech player and I think she gets the better of this southpaw battle in the Quarter Final and can cover the handicap on the way through to the next Round.

MY PICKS: Felix Auger-Aliassime + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova + 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Update: 9-10, - 4.88 Units (38 Units Staked, - 12.84% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (August 18-20)

Some may have felt the Premier League had never been away after seeing the top five from last season all win their opening League games of the 2018/19 season.

Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea all scored at least twice in their wins last weekend and there does feel there is a real gap that has developed between the top six and the rest of the Premier League.

I still think we will see the upsets that have been a part of the top flight of English Football over the years, but I also think those five clubs will recognise that they will need to get very close to 80 points to finish in the Champions League places and perhaps closer to 90 points to win the Premier League.

It makes any dropped points highlighted even more and that brings a pressure of its own as both Manchester United and Liverpool have to match the away wins the other three clubs have earned.


I have written a short piece about Manchester United and some of the problems surrounding the club which can be read here.


The remainder of this month is going to be a little busy for me, but I am planning to change up this thread and add some Fantasy plays going forward from September. While the majority of the thread will be focused on the Weekend Picks as it is now, I will list three or four players in the positions of Goalkeeper, Defence, Midfield and Attack who could have a big weekend.

As any Fantasy Football player knows there are a range of prices so I will try and produce a list of two lower priced options with two potentially more expensive choices ahead of each weekend. It is a new part of the thread so will take some adjustments to make it feel like I want it to, but that will begin from the first Premier League games after the September international break.

If that date changes I will update it in the coming weeks.

Now onto the Weekend Picks with the Premier League games spread from Saturday lunchtime through to Monday evening.


Cardiff City v Newcastle United Pick: The opening Premier League game of the weekend comes from Wales as Cardiff City host Newcastle United with both clubs searching for their first points of the 2018/19 season.

Last weekend both Newcastle United and Cardiff City conceded twice in defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth respectively and I imagine Rafa Benitez and Neil Warnock will be looking for a big response from the players.

You have to say that both squads look short of quality at the Premier League level, but they managers who will believe they can extract more out of their players to overachieve in the coming season. Games like this look to be vital for both and I will admit I was a little surprised Newcastle United are going in as the favourites despite being away from home.

Perhaps the layers have factored in the Newcastle United run of 5 successive wins at Cardiff City including when they last met a couple of years ago. It also should be noted that Cardiff City are one of the favourites for relegation and 3 of the 4 wins Newcastle United had away from home came against teams who finished below them including at 2 of the 3 clubs that were eventually relegated.

However there has to be a real adrenaline boost for the Cardiff City players in their first home game of the season against a team the fans will believe they can beat. The side were very good at home in the Championship and there was enough shown in the final third last Saturday at the Vitality Stadium to think Cardiff City can cause problems for this Newcastle United team.

On the other hand The Magpies should also be able to create some opportunities too and I think the layers are underestimating the chance to see both teams score.

I did lean towards backing Cardiff City with the start on the Asian Handicap as the home underdog, but Rafa Benitez showed he can get enough out of his players to win games like this last season in the Premier League and that has to be respected.

The feeling is that Cardiff City and Newcastle United both create enough quality chances to score at least once each and so backing both teams to score at odds against looked the better angle of the two I considered.


Everton v Southampton Pick: The big reason Everton were able to move away from the bottom three last season was the strong form they displayed at Goodison Park for the most part. They have been very good at home in recent years and once again reached double digits in terms of home wins in the Premier League which gives Marco Silva something to build on.

The 2-2 draw at Wolves showed Everton in good light despite being reduced to ten men and they have made some good additions to the squad which underachieved for much of the last campaign. An attacking style will get the fans very much behind Silva and the players, which is so important to this club, and Everton will believe they are ready for a much better season all around.

Richarlison made his debut in style for Everton last weekend but other new faces are not expected to be available for this fixture. That means a similar team to last weekend will kick off this fixture with the potential of Kurt Zouma replacing suspended Phil Jagielka at centre half.

The performance was encouraging enough to think Everton can earn the three points here having won all 10 home games in the League agains teams that finished below them in the League table. You have to think that will be the case for Southampton who looked short of quality in the final third during their goalless draw with Burnley last weekend.

It was a big performance from Alex McCarthy which prevented Southampton from opening this campaign with a defeat and the goalkeeper is likely going to be very important again in this fixture. Southampton will look to make life difficult for Everton by being set up to be hard to beat, but the players look to have responded to Marco Silva in a positive way and I think Everton will earn the three points barring another early sending off like in the game against Wolves.

Everton do have a strong home record against Southampton over the years and I think they will pose enough of an attacking threat to edge out The Saints who scored just 17 away goals last season.


Leicester City v Wolves Pick: There have been some rumours that the Leicester City players are looking to get rid of another manager having downed tools for the likes of Claudio Ranieri and Craig Shakespeare over the last couple of years. It sounds like they have now had enough of Claude Puel despite the strong performance at Old Trafford in their first game of the Premier League season and that makes it tough to trust them.

Any club that have players who are willing to produce poor enough performances to ensure a manager is replaced can't really be backed to win games with the rumours around Leicester City. They were also a team that did have some difficulties getting up for games against the so-called 'lesser' clubs in the Premier League and that is highlighted by the fact that only 3 of their 7 home League wins came against teams that finished below them in the table.

Having a derby game should mean the players are well aware of the importance of playing Wolves this weekend and I am not completely convinced the rumours about the player's dissatisfaction are on point. They played with some confidence at Old Trafford and better finishing might have stolen a point against Manchester United and I expect Leicester City to fashion some opportunities against this Wolves team.

Wolves played well enough to earn a point against Everton last weekend in their return to the Premier League and they have some big ambitions. The sending off of Phil Jagielka certainly helped the Wolves cause and I think there is going to be a tough learning curve for the club early in the season as they bed in players who are not used to playing at the Premier League level.

I do think Nuno Espirito Santo will look to make Wolves hard to beat and I don't think Leicester City can take this for granted. I do edge towards the home team if they can replicate how they played at Manchester United last Friday and Jamie Vardy's return to the starting eleven will help with converting the opportunities they can create this weekend.

The derby nature of the fixture makes it a little tougher to predict too, but I am looking for The Foxes to edge out Wolves. I will back Leicester City on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw, but my feeling is that Leicester City will have just enough in the final third to win their first game of the 2018/19 season.


Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham Pick: A London derby will be played at Wembley Stadium on Saturday in the Premier League as Tottenham Hotspur fans get used to playing in the national stadium for at least a couple of months. The delay to the move to the 'New White Hart Lane' is a bother to the club in general as they have to scramble to book venues to play their League and Champions League fixtures coming up, but the players will be focused on events on the field.

They showed they can do that after a positive 1-2 win at Newcastle United last weekend and Tottenham Hotspur have some returning players to boost the squad ahead of this one. The form at Wembley Stadium was decent enough from Tottenham Hotspur, especially down the stretch, to think they won't be too bothered about having to play their next few 'home' games here.

Fulham also have some fond memories of playing at Wembley Stadium having secured their Premier League status with a 1-0 win over Aston Villa in the Championship Play Off Final in May. The 0-2 defeat to Crystal Palace has shown how difficult the move to the Premier League will be for any club coming up from the Championship and it will be tough for Fulham to respond with a really positive result here.

In the last couple of seasons Tottenham Hotspur have been particularly dominant when hosting clubs in the bottom half of the table. They have won 9 of 10 against those clubs in each of the last couple of years and Tottenham Hotspur have enough attacking quality to win this one with some room to spare.

17 of their 30 Premier League wins over the last two seasons have come by at least a two goal margin for Tottenham Hotspur and I think they will have a little too much for a Fulham team who are missing some key players. Fulham could play their part against a Tottenham Hotspur team who did have a couple of defensive mistakes in them last week, but I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap to win this fixture by at least two goals on the day.


West Ham United v Bournemouth Pick: Last week was a chastening experience for the West Ham United fans who have been dreaming of some very big things for their club this summer. The 4-0 defeat at Anfield may be something that other clubs experience, but it could be good for Manuel Pellegrini and his players to not be saddled with the huge expectations of the fans in their first home game of the new season.

The fans will still be expectant, but they will stay behind their team who may need some weeks to gel in together have signed a number of new players and also having a new voice to listen to in the dressing room.

I do expect better from West Ham United this weekend when they face Bournemouth at the London Stadium although they will have to show significantly better defensive desire to do that. Liverpool can cut open teams, but they were aided massively by the poor defending West Ham United produced and that is something Pellegrini would have worked on during the week.

It is important for West Ham United who will have their chances against Bournemouth but who have to be wary of the attacking intent shown by The Cherries in their win over Cardiff City last week. Bournemouth have had some success in East London at West Ham United since being promoted to the Premier League and their win last weekend will have given the players a boost in confidence to take into this fixture.

However Bournemouth have generally not been so good on their travels and they are a team who have struggled defensively in the last couple of years with at least 61 conceded in both seasons. There is enough about this West Ham United team from an attacking front to think they can get after this Bournemouth side although the fans can sometimes make it a tough atmosphere to play in.

That shouldn't be the case on Saturday with the optimism around the club and I expect West Ham United to bounce back from their defeat at Anfield. It will be a tight game at the London Stadium but I will back West Ham United on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake if this game ends in a draw.


Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: The second live game in the Premier League on Saturday comes from Stamford Bridge as Chelsea and Arsenal meet in a London derby managed by two new faces.

Maurizio Sarri got off to a very good start as he guided Chelsea to a 0-3 win at Huddersfield Town, but this is a much bigger test for him against a quality opponent. The manager himself is downplaying some expectations for his team as he believes it will take a couple of months for the players to really get on board with his tactics, but Sarri is clearly looking for the players to enjoy themselves.

That is something most will get on board with much quicker than with hard taskmasters like Antonio Conte and Chelsea have the likes of Willian and Eden Hazard ready to be unleashed on this Arsenal team.

Unai Emery was given a real eye-opener as to how much work he has to do at the Emirates Stadium after Arsenal were beaten very comfortably by Manchester City. Some of the criticism of the manager has been a little over the top especially when it comes from 'tactical masters' like Sam Allardyce and Tony Adams, but Emery does deserve some of it.

He has to have know it would not be suitable for Arsenal to try and play from the back against the Manchester City high press with the players Emery could use in defensive players. That could be a real problem against Sarri and his Chelsea team if Emery has not learned a lesson and I do feel like this could be another very difficult match for The Gunners.

Last Sunday the Arsenal forwards couldn't really get into the game against Manchester City, but I do expect better from them at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea had an easy day defensively against Huddersfield Town, but I would imagine a much sterner examination from Arsenal although this does feel like a fixture that the home side should have the edge in.

Last season Arsenal managed two goalless draws at Stamford Bridge to snap a 5 game losing run on this ground. They did have some fortune in those games to keep Chelsea out, but it will offer some encouragement to the players.

However I am not sure it will be enough on the day and Chelsea can back up their strong win at Huddersfield Town by adding another victory on Saturday. With the likes of Willian and Hazard likely to force mistakes in the Arsenal defensive areas, I think Chelsea have enough to earn the victory and will back them to do that.


Burnley v Watford Pick: Over the last couple of years it has been wins over teams in the bottom half that have helped keep Burnley in the Premier League and they will be looking to make Turf Moor a tough place for teams to visit again. Sean Dyche will be very keen to see his Burnley team pick up their first Premier League win at the first time of asking at Turf Moor, but the challenge is balancing the League with the Europa League commitments.

There were enough key players rested for the win on Thursday which will encourage Dyche that the Burnley squad can perform well both domestically and in European tournaments this season. It is still going to be interesting to see how Burnley handle the Thursday-Sunday combination this weekend having needed extra time to beat Istanbul Basaksehir on Thursday evening, but at least that Second Leg was played at home so travelling is not a problem.

Regardless it is still a difficult test to have to play twice in a week against an opponent who will have been preparing all week for this fixture.

Watford made a strong start to the new Premier League season by comfortably beating Brighton 2-0 at Vicarage Road, but Javi Gracia will know The Hornets need to improve their away form to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Last season they did win 4 away games, but those who came pretty early in the season and Watford's run of 13 away games without a win during which time they have been beaten 12 times has to be a major concern.

They were beaten at all of the clubs that finished in the top nine of the Premier League table last season and 13 losses in 19 away League games is a very poor return. Watford lost the same number of away games the season before last and Burnley have shown they have kept their strong defensive discipline from last season which will make them very tough to beat.

I have some reservations about the fact that Burnley have little time to prepare for this one, but I think Sean Dyche did pick a team on Thursday with this Premier League game in mind. The poor Watford away record in the last couple of years in the Premier League added to the fact that Burnley have beaten them twice in a row makes me lean towards the home team earning their first League win of the season.

However the potential fatigue factor means I will back Burnley on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw. That is still an odds against price and looks the best way to back Burnley to win their first game of the 2018/19 season.


Manchester City v Huddersfield Town Pick: The big news this week is that Kevin De Bruyne suffered a knee injury in training for Manchester City which means Pep Guardiola will have to do without a key figure for what could be up to four months. The full diagnosis will come out this week prior to the Premier League game against Huddersfield Town but for the foreseeable future it looks like Manchester City will have to do without their Belgian playmaker.

The fixture list over the next couple of months is not one that will intimidate Manchester City who still have plenty of quality to fall back upon. David Silva may not be ready for this weekend, but the Spaniard will be fresh going forward as he has called time on his international career, while Bernardo Silva and Riyad Mahrez could could be huge influences going forward.

A home game with Huddersfield Town should be one that Manchester City enjoy, although they had two tough Premier League games against them last season. Late in the season Huddersfield Town battled for a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium and the fixture at the John Smith's Stadium was only decided in the last ten minutes in favour of Manchester City.

It will be very difficult for Huddersfield Town to produce the same kind of defensive performance they did a few months ago in the draw here. Over the second half of the Premier League season Huddersfield Town finished with the 19th best record in the top flight, while the 0-3 home loss to Chelsea on the opening weekend underlines the kind of struggles this club could be in for.

A lack of goals has to be a real worry for David Wagner and the Huddersfield Town fans, but they can come to the Etihad Stadium with nothing to lose and give it a really good go. Set pieces will be where Huddersfield Town could be dangerous, but Manchester City finished with the best defensive record in the Premier League last season and they can make it back to back clean sheets to open the 2018/19 campaign.

Backing Manchester City to win with the clean sheet looks the best way to approach this game with the home side being asked to cover a big Asian Handicap. I considered that with the goals Manchester City have in the squad, but Huddersfield Town were only beaten by three or more goals in 4 of their 19 away games last season and instead I will look to oppose them in the goalscoring market considering their struggles there in 2017/18.


Brighton v Manchester United Pick: By hook or by crook all Manchester United fans just wanted the team to help put the poor summer transfer window behind them and earn the victory over Leicester City to open the 2018/19 season.

It was a tough night at Old Trafford but the players made a very good start and then had to battle for the victory over The Foxes.

Ultimately the three points were most important although the Paul Pogba relationship breakdown with Jose Mourinho is a concern for the dressing room harmony. The comments made by Pogba after the win over Leicester City have led to further headlines during the week that the two men are barely on speaking terms at the moment and it does feel Manchester United could be one poor result away from things spiralling out of control.

That is a real concern when you consider backing Manchester United to win any game at the moment, but I do think they can get some revenge for an embarrassing 1-0 defeat at the Amex Stadium back in early May. With the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Ashley Young and possibly Jesse Lingard back, Manchester United have a group of players who should be good enough to win games like this even though they were beaten in this Stadium last time they visited.

On that occasion Manchester United had two or three very good chances to lead before Brighton scored with a rare foray into the final third and the home team will have to be a lot better than on the opening weekend to beat Manchester United again.

Brighton were comfortably beaten by Watford last weekend and they barely created anything of note in the fixture. They have been a much better team at home in the Premier League, but 3 of their 4 home losses last season came against sides who finished in the top five.

Generally those clubs had a little too much quality for Brighton and I do think Manchester United would have been another to win here if they had scored first at the Amex Stadium in early May when the chances came their way. This time they will have Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku at the end of those and I do think the dressing room are still on the same page as the management staff at the moment.

There is no denying Brighton can make life difficult for an opponent if they get the chance to dig in and not fall behind too early, but they have to be a lot better than last week. I am not sure their new signings will have bedded in just yet, and I do think Manchester United will find a way to win here.

All 4 of Brighton's home losses came by two or more goals last season and Manchester United won half of their 10 away wins by the same margin. I will back Manchester United on the Asian Handicap which will give us a full payout if they win by two or more goals, but still provide a positive return if Manchester United win by a single goal margin.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: It can be very easy to overreact to performances and results from the opening weekend of any domestic League campaign, but Liverpool fans won't feel they are doing that after the encouraging 4-0 win over West Ham United. This is a season in which the Liverpool fans have to genuinely believe they win the Premier League title and they can make a statement by winning at Selhurst Park.

While Crystal Palace have not exactly made this ground a fortress, the atmosphere should be very good on Monday night and Roy Hodgson has got the players pulling in the same direction.

The former England and Liverpool manager is well organised and you have to expect his Crystal Palace team to follow the instructions set out for them. They have been very good under Hodgson's guidance and even the losses to Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester United here were very unfortunate considering Crystal Palace led in the latter two of those before succumbing to late goals.

With Wilfried Zaha in the line up, Crystal Palace will try and hit Liverpool on the counter attack after frustrating them on the other end of the pitch, but keeping Liverpool out is not going to be easy. The front three have already settled into the new season and the addition of Naby Keita to the midfield was huge for them.

Even with that in mind I have to respect how improved Crystal Palace have been under Hodgson and I do think they can pose some real problems for Liverpool. I certainly expect better from Crystal Palace than West Ham United produced last weekend having gift wrapped a couple of the Liverpool goals and I also think Crystal Palace have a bit more going forward than The Hammers showed.

Like I said last week, it is hard to imagine Liverpool not scoring and I do think both clubs will be on the scoreboard this Monday. The last 8 between these clubs at Selhurst Park have featured both teams scoring, while 12 of the last 14 overall have also done the same.

I did consider backing Crystal Palace with the start on the Asian Handicap which looks a big number, but ultimately I just leaned towards both teams scoring a little more and will back that to be the outcome of this one.

MY PICKS: Cardiff City-Newcastle United Both Teams to Score @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 Bet365 (2 Units)

August 2018/19 Update: 6-2, + 8.10 Units (16 Units Staked, + 50.63% Yield)