Weekend Football Picks 2018 (August 18-20)

Some may have felt the Premier League had never been away after seeing the top five from last season all win their opening League games of the 2018/19 season.

Manchester City, Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Chelsea all scored at least twice in their wins last weekend and there does feel there is a real gap that has developed between the top six and the rest of the Premier League.

I still think we will see the upsets that have been a part of the top flight of English Football over the years, but I also think those five clubs will recognise that they will need to get very close to 80 points to finish in the Champions League places and perhaps closer to 90 points to win the Premier League.

It makes any dropped points highlighted even more and that brings a pressure of its own as both Manchester United and Liverpool have to match the away wins the other three clubs have earned.


I have written a short piece about Manchester United and some of the problems surrounding the club which can be read here.


The remainder of this month is going to be a little busy for me, but I am planning to change up this thread and add some Fantasy plays going forward from September. While the majority of the thread will be focused on the Weekend Picks as it is now, I will list three or four players in the positions of Goalkeeper, Defence, Midfield and Attack who could have a big weekend.

As any Fantasy Football player knows there are a range of prices so I will try and produce a list of two lower priced options with two potentially more expensive choices ahead of each weekend. It is a new part of the thread so will take some adjustments to make it feel like I want it to, but that will begin from the first Premier League games after the September international break.

If that date changes I will update it in the coming weeks.

Now onto the Weekend Picks with the Premier League games spread from Saturday lunchtime through to Monday evening.


Cardiff City v Newcastle United Pick: The opening Premier League game of the weekend comes from Wales as Cardiff City host Newcastle United with both clubs searching for their first points of the 2018/19 season.

Last weekend both Newcastle United and Cardiff City conceded twice in defeats to Tottenham Hotspur and Bournemouth respectively and I imagine Rafa Benitez and Neil Warnock will be looking for a big response from the players.

You have to say that both squads look short of quality at the Premier League level, but they managers who will believe they can extract more out of their players to overachieve in the coming season. Games like this look to be vital for both and I will admit I was a little surprised Newcastle United are going in as the favourites despite being away from home.

Perhaps the layers have factored in the Newcastle United run of 5 successive wins at Cardiff City including when they last met a couple of years ago. It also should be noted that Cardiff City are one of the favourites for relegation and 3 of the 4 wins Newcastle United had away from home came against teams who finished below them including at 2 of the 3 clubs that were eventually relegated.

However there has to be a real adrenaline boost for the Cardiff City players in their first home game of the season against a team the fans will believe they can beat. The side were very good at home in the Championship and there was enough shown in the final third last Saturday at the Vitality Stadium to think Cardiff City can cause problems for this Newcastle United team.

On the other hand The Magpies should also be able to create some opportunities too and I think the layers are underestimating the chance to see both teams score.

I did lean towards backing Cardiff City with the start on the Asian Handicap as the home underdog, but Rafa Benitez showed he can get enough out of his players to win games like this last season in the Premier League and that has to be respected.

The feeling is that Cardiff City and Newcastle United both create enough quality chances to score at least once each and so backing both teams to score at odds against looked the better angle of the two I considered.


Everton v Southampton Pick: The big reason Everton were able to move away from the bottom three last season was the strong form they displayed at Goodison Park for the most part. They have been very good at home in recent years and once again reached double digits in terms of home wins in the Premier League which gives Marco Silva something to build on.

The 2-2 draw at Wolves showed Everton in good light despite being reduced to ten men and they have made some good additions to the squad which underachieved for much of the last campaign. An attacking style will get the fans very much behind Silva and the players, which is so important to this club, and Everton will believe they are ready for a much better season all around.

Richarlison made his debut in style for Everton last weekend but other new faces are not expected to be available for this fixture. That means a similar team to last weekend will kick off this fixture with the potential of Kurt Zouma replacing suspended Phil Jagielka at centre half.

The performance was encouraging enough to think Everton can earn the three points here having won all 10 home games in the League agains teams that finished below them in the League table. You have to think that will be the case for Southampton who looked short of quality in the final third during their goalless draw with Burnley last weekend.

It was a big performance from Alex McCarthy which prevented Southampton from opening this campaign with a defeat and the goalkeeper is likely going to be very important again in this fixture. Southampton will look to make life difficult for Everton by being set up to be hard to beat, but the players look to have responded to Marco Silva in a positive way and I think Everton will earn the three points barring another early sending off like in the game against Wolves.

Everton do have a strong home record against Southampton over the years and I think they will pose enough of an attacking threat to edge out The Saints who scored just 17 away goals last season.


Leicester City v Wolves Pick: There have been some rumours that the Leicester City players are looking to get rid of another manager having downed tools for the likes of Claudio Ranieri and Craig Shakespeare over the last couple of years. It sounds like they have now had enough of Claude Puel despite the strong performance at Old Trafford in their first game of the Premier League season and that makes it tough to trust them.

Any club that have players who are willing to produce poor enough performances to ensure a manager is replaced can't really be backed to win games with the rumours around Leicester City. They were also a team that did have some difficulties getting up for games against the so-called 'lesser' clubs in the Premier League and that is highlighted by the fact that only 3 of their 7 home League wins came against teams that finished below them in the table.

Having a derby game should mean the players are well aware of the importance of playing Wolves this weekend and I am not completely convinced the rumours about the player's dissatisfaction are on point. They played with some confidence at Old Trafford and better finishing might have stolen a point against Manchester United and I expect Leicester City to fashion some opportunities against this Wolves team.

Wolves played well enough to earn a point against Everton last weekend in their return to the Premier League and they have some big ambitions. The sending off of Phil Jagielka certainly helped the Wolves cause and I think there is going to be a tough learning curve for the club early in the season as they bed in players who are not used to playing at the Premier League level.

I do think Nuno Espirito Santo will look to make Wolves hard to beat and I don't think Leicester City can take this for granted. I do edge towards the home team if they can replicate how they played at Manchester United last Friday and Jamie Vardy's return to the starting eleven will help with converting the opportunities they can create this weekend.

The derby nature of the fixture makes it a little tougher to predict too, but I am looking for The Foxes to edge out Wolves. I will back Leicester City on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw, but my feeling is that Leicester City will have just enough in the final third to win their first game of the 2018/19 season.


Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham Pick: A London derby will be played at Wembley Stadium on Saturday in the Premier League as Tottenham Hotspur fans get used to playing in the national stadium for at least a couple of months. The delay to the move to the 'New White Hart Lane' is a bother to the club in general as they have to scramble to book venues to play their League and Champions League fixtures coming up, but the players will be focused on events on the field.

They showed they can do that after a positive 1-2 win at Newcastle United last weekend and Tottenham Hotspur have some returning players to boost the squad ahead of this one. The form at Wembley Stadium was decent enough from Tottenham Hotspur, especially down the stretch, to think they won't be too bothered about having to play their next few 'home' games here.

Fulham also have some fond memories of playing at Wembley Stadium having secured their Premier League status with a 1-0 win over Aston Villa in the Championship Play Off Final in May. The 0-2 defeat to Crystal Palace has shown how difficult the move to the Premier League will be for any club coming up from the Championship and it will be tough for Fulham to respond with a really positive result here.

In the last couple of seasons Tottenham Hotspur have been particularly dominant when hosting clubs in the bottom half of the table. They have won 9 of 10 against those clubs in each of the last couple of years and Tottenham Hotspur have enough attacking quality to win this one with some room to spare.

17 of their 30 Premier League wins over the last two seasons have come by at least a two goal margin for Tottenham Hotspur and I think they will have a little too much for a Fulham team who are missing some key players. Fulham could play their part against a Tottenham Hotspur team who did have a couple of defensive mistakes in them last week, but I will back the home team on the Asian Handicap to win this fixture by at least two goals on the day.


West Ham United v Bournemouth Pick: Last week was a chastening experience for the West Ham United fans who have been dreaming of some very big things for their club this summer. The 4-0 defeat at Anfield may be something that other clubs experience, but it could be good for Manuel Pellegrini and his players to not be saddled with the huge expectations of the fans in their first home game of the new season.

The fans will still be expectant, but they will stay behind their team who may need some weeks to gel in together have signed a number of new players and also having a new voice to listen to in the dressing room.

I do expect better from West Ham United this weekend when they face Bournemouth at the London Stadium although they will have to show significantly better defensive desire to do that. Liverpool can cut open teams, but they were aided massively by the poor defending West Ham United produced and that is something Pellegrini would have worked on during the week.

It is important for West Ham United who will have their chances against Bournemouth but who have to be wary of the attacking intent shown by The Cherries in their win over Cardiff City last week. Bournemouth have had some success in East London at West Ham United since being promoted to the Premier League and their win last weekend will have given the players a boost in confidence to take into this fixture.

However Bournemouth have generally not been so good on their travels and they are a team who have struggled defensively in the last couple of years with at least 61 conceded in both seasons. There is enough about this West Ham United team from an attacking front to think they can get after this Bournemouth side although the fans can sometimes make it a tough atmosphere to play in.

That shouldn't be the case on Saturday with the optimism around the club and I expect West Ham United to bounce back from their defeat at Anfield. It will be a tight game at the London Stadium but I will back West Ham United on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake if this game ends in a draw.


Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: The second live game in the Premier League on Saturday comes from Stamford Bridge as Chelsea and Arsenal meet in a London derby managed by two new faces.

Maurizio Sarri got off to a very good start as he guided Chelsea to a 0-3 win at Huddersfield Town, but this is a much bigger test for him against a quality opponent. The manager himself is downplaying some expectations for his team as he believes it will take a couple of months for the players to really get on board with his tactics, but Sarri is clearly looking for the players to enjoy themselves.

That is something most will get on board with much quicker than with hard taskmasters like Antonio Conte and Chelsea have the likes of Willian and Eden Hazard ready to be unleashed on this Arsenal team.

Unai Emery was given a real eye-opener as to how much work he has to do at the Emirates Stadium after Arsenal were beaten very comfortably by Manchester City. Some of the criticism of the manager has been a little over the top especially when it comes from 'tactical masters' like Sam Allardyce and Tony Adams, but Emery does deserve some of it.

He has to have know it would not be suitable for Arsenal to try and play from the back against the Manchester City high press with the players Emery could use in defensive players. That could be a real problem against Sarri and his Chelsea team if Emery has not learned a lesson and I do feel like this could be another very difficult match for The Gunners.

Last Sunday the Arsenal forwards couldn't really get into the game against Manchester City, but I do expect better from them at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea had an easy day defensively against Huddersfield Town, but I would imagine a much sterner examination from Arsenal although this does feel like a fixture that the home side should have the edge in.

Last season Arsenal managed two goalless draws at Stamford Bridge to snap a 5 game losing run on this ground. They did have some fortune in those games to keep Chelsea out, but it will offer some encouragement to the players.

However I am not sure it will be enough on the day and Chelsea can back up their strong win at Huddersfield Town by adding another victory on Saturday. With the likes of Willian and Hazard likely to force mistakes in the Arsenal defensive areas, I think Chelsea have enough to earn the victory and will back them to do that.


Burnley v Watford Pick: Over the last couple of years it has been wins over teams in the bottom half that have helped keep Burnley in the Premier League and they will be looking to make Turf Moor a tough place for teams to visit again. Sean Dyche will be very keen to see his Burnley team pick up their first Premier League win at the first time of asking at Turf Moor, but the challenge is balancing the League with the Europa League commitments.

There were enough key players rested for the win on Thursday which will encourage Dyche that the Burnley squad can perform well both domestically and in European tournaments this season. It is still going to be interesting to see how Burnley handle the Thursday-Sunday combination this weekend having needed extra time to beat Istanbul Basaksehir on Thursday evening, but at least that Second Leg was played at home so travelling is not a problem.

Regardless it is still a difficult test to have to play twice in a week against an opponent who will have been preparing all week for this fixture.

Watford made a strong start to the new Premier League season by comfortably beating Brighton 2-0 at Vicarage Road, but Javi Gracia will know The Hornets need to improve their away form to avoid being dragged into a relegation scrap. Last season they did win 4 away games, but those who came pretty early in the season and Watford's run of 13 away games without a win during which time they have been beaten 12 times has to be a major concern.

They were beaten at all of the clubs that finished in the top nine of the Premier League table last season and 13 losses in 19 away League games is a very poor return. Watford lost the same number of away games the season before last and Burnley have shown they have kept their strong defensive discipline from last season which will make them very tough to beat.

I have some reservations about the fact that Burnley have little time to prepare for this one, but I think Sean Dyche did pick a team on Thursday with this Premier League game in mind. The poor Watford away record in the last couple of years in the Premier League added to the fact that Burnley have beaten them twice in a row makes me lean towards the home team earning their first League win of the season.

However the potential fatigue factor means I will back Burnley on the Asian Handicap which will at least return half the stake in the event of a draw. That is still an odds against price and looks the best way to back Burnley to win their first game of the 2018/19 season.


Manchester City v Huddersfield Town Pick: The big news this week is that Kevin De Bruyne suffered a knee injury in training for Manchester City which means Pep Guardiola will have to do without a key figure for what could be up to four months. The full diagnosis will come out this week prior to the Premier League game against Huddersfield Town but for the foreseeable future it looks like Manchester City will have to do without their Belgian playmaker.

The fixture list over the next couple of months is not one that will intimidate Manchester City who still have plenty of quality to fall back upon. David Silva may not be ready for this weekend, but the Spaniard will be fresh going forward as he has called time on his international career, while Bernardo Silva and Riyad Mahrez could could be huge influences going forward.

A home game with Huddersfield Town should be one that Manchester City enjoy, although they had two tough Premier League games against them last season. Late in the season Huddersfield Town battled for a goalless draw at the Etihad Stadium and the fixture at the John Smith's Stadium was only decided in the last ten minutes in favour of Manchester City.

It will be very difficult for Huddersfield Town to produce the same kind of defensive performance they did a few months ago in the draw here. Over the second half of the Premier League season Huddersfield Town finished with the 19th best record in the top flight, while the 0-3 home loss to Chelsea on the opening weekend underlines the kind of struggles this club could be in for.

A lack of goals has to be a real worry for David Wagner and the Huddersfield Town fans, but they can come to the Etihad Stadium with nothing to lose and give it a really good go. Set pieces will be where Huddersfield Town could be dangerous, but Manchester City finished with the best defensive record in the Premier League last season and they can make it back to back clean sheets to open the 2018/19 campaign.

Backing Manchester City to win with the clean sheet looks the best way to approach this game with the home side being asked to cover a big Asian Handicap. I considered that with the goals Manchester City have in the squad, but Huddersfield Town were only beaten by three or more goals in 4 of their 19 away games last season and instead I will look to oppose them in the goalscoring market considering their struggles there in 2017/18.


Brighton v Manchester United Pick: By hook or by crook all Manchester United fans just wanted the team to help put the poor summer transfer window behind them and earn the victory over Leicester City to open the 2018/19 season.

It was a tough night at Old Trafford but the players made a very good start and then had to battle for the victory over The Foxes.

Ultimately the three points were most important although the Paul Pogba relationship breakdown with Jose Mourinho is a concern for the dressing room harmony. The comments made by Pogba after the win over Leicester City have led to further headlines during the week that the two men are barely on speaking terms at the moment and it does feel Manchester United could be one poor result away from things spiralling out of control.

That is a real concern when you consider backing Manchester United to win any game at the moment, but I do think they can get some revenge for an embarrassing 1-0 defeat at the Amex Stadium back in early May. With the likes of Romelu Lukaku, Ashley Young and possibly Jesse Lingard back, Manchester United have a group of players who should be good enough to win games like this even though they were beaten in this Stadium last time they visited.

On that occasion Manchester United had two or three very good chances to lead before Brighton scored with a rare foray into the final third and the home team will have to be a lot better than on the opening weekend to beat Manchester United again.

Brighton were comfortably beaten by Watford last weekend and they barely created anything of note in the fixture. They have been a much better team at home in the Premier League, but 3 of their 4 home losses last season came against sides who finished in the top five.

Generally those clubs had a little too much quality for Brighton and I do think Manchester United would have been another to win here if they had scored first at the Amex Stadium in early May when the chances came their way. This time they will have Alexis Sanchez and Romelu Lukaku at the end of those and I do think the dressing room are still on the same page as the management staff at the moment.

There is no denying Brighton can make life difficult for an opponent if they get the chance to dig in and not fall behind too early, but they have to be a lot better than last week. I am not sure their new signings will have bedded in just yet, and I do think Manchester United will find a way to win here.

All 4 of Brighton's home losses came by two or more goals last season and Manchester United won half of their 10 away wins by the same margin. I will back Manchester United on the Asian Handicap which will give us a full payout if they win by two or more goals, but still provide a positive return if Manchester United win by a single goal margin.


Crystal Palace v Liverpool Pick: It can be very easy to overreact to performances and results from the opening weekend of any domestic League campaign, but Liverpool fans won't feel they are doing that after the encouraging 4-0 win over West Ham United. This is a season in which the Liverpool fans have to genuinely believe they win the Premier League title and they can make a statement by winning at Selhurst Park.

While Crystal Palace have not exactly made this ground a fortress, the atmosphere should be very good on Monday night and Roy Hodgson has got the players pulling in the same direction.

The former England and Liverpool manager is well organised and you have to expect his Crystal Palace team to follow the instructions set out for them. They have been very good under Hodgson's guidance and even the losses to Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester United here were very unfortunate considering Crystal Palace led in the latter two of those before succumbing to late goals.

With Wilfried Zaha in the line up, Crystal Palace will try and hit Liverpool on the counter attack after frustrating them on the other end of the pitch, but keeping Liverpool out is not going to be easy. The front three have already settled into the new season and the addition of Naby Keita to the midfield was huge for them.

Even with that in mind I have to respect how improved Crystal Palace have been under Hodgson and I do think they can pose some real problems for Liverpool. I certainly expect better from Crystal Palace than West Ham United produced last weekend having gift wrapped a couple of the Liverpool goals and I also think Crystal Palace have a bit more going forward than The Hammers showed.

Like I said last week, it is hard to imagine Liverpool not scoring and I do think both clubs will be on the scoreboard this Monday. The last 8 between these clubs at Selhurst Park have featured both teams scoring, while 12 of the last 14 overall have also done the same.

I did consider backing Crystal Palace with the start on the Asian Handicap which looks a big number, but ultimately I just leaned towards both teams scoring a little more and will back that to be the outcome of this one.

MY PICKS: Cardiff City-Newcastle United Both Teams to Score @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.61 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Liverpool Both Teams to Score @ 1.75 Bet365 (2 Units)

August 2018/19 Update: 6-2, + 8.10 Units (16 Units Staked, + 50.63% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2015 (August 18-20)

The Champions League Group Stage is the lucrative part of the competition that twenty teams will be looking to get into the draw that takes place a week on Friday. For all the battling so many do to get into the League positions to enter the Champions League, it would all be for nought if they are beaten in the Play Off Round of the competition as a defeat sends them through the trapdoor into the Europa League.

That is no disrespect to the Europa League which is a stronger competition worthy of its position on the calendar than many in England believe it to be, but to say it would be a disappointment to the twenty teams fighting out for the final ten places in the Champions League would not be an understatement.

It can lead to some tense matches over the next nine days as teams try to get into the financial melting pot that is the Champions League Group Stage and I do see some tight ties taking place.


The second round of Premier League fixtures were played last weekend and I have put down a few thoughts from the stories coming out of those games which can be read here.


Manchester United v Club Brugge Pick: Getting into the top four was the main objective for Manchester United last season, but failing to play in the Group Stage of the Champions League this season would be a real failure for Louis Van Gaal and the club. The opening two Premier League games have resulted in wins for Manchester United, but the performances haven't been the best although the side will be a big favourite to beat Club Brugge in this Champions League Play Off tie.

The First Leg at Old Trafford could be crucial for Manchester United if they are going to progress as many of the fans will be hoping they will be seeing the tie essentially clinched after the game on Tuesday. However, everyone would be wrong to underestimate a Club Brugge team that had been unbeaten in 8 away games in European football before narrow losses to Dnipro and Panathinaikos.

Reaching the Quarter Final of the Europa League last season will give Club Brugge the confidence they can handle a knock out tie early in the season, although they have to improve their away form markedly. Club Brugge have lost 7 of their last 10 away games in all competitions and not many of the teams they will have faced are of the level of a Premier League giant like Manchester United.

That might mean the first objective for Club Brugge is making sure they are still in the tie when they return home for the Second Leg in eight days time. They will look to employ the counter-attack to get the better of Manchester United and try to secure an important away goal, but you have to believe Louis Van Gaal's team is going to be a little too strong on the day.

Manchester United have plenty of room for improvement from their opening two games, but they will also feel the level they are facing is not the same as what Tottenham Hotspur brought to Old Trafford ten days ago. The key for United might be trying to finish the tie when they have the momentum behind them as they have looked good in periods during the first two games without peppering the goal as much as they would like.

There looks to be an obvious decision to make sure Manchester United are defensively sound and I think that will show up in the First Leg of this tie too. I'd suggest that Louis Van Gaal would happily take a 1-0 lead to Belgium next week, but I do think Manchester United will likely have a slightly bigger lead to head into the Second Leg.

However, backing Manchester United to win their third game in a row with a clean sheet might be the best way forward in this one despite the gut feeling they win by at least two goals for the first time this season.


Sporting Lisbon v CSKA Moscow Pick: This is another one of the Play Off ties that looks like it could be finely balanced through the two Legs and Sporting Lisbon will be looking for a lead to take to Russia if they have serious ambitions of getting back into the Champions League Group Stage.

Neither Sporting Lisbon nor CSKA Moscow have had much experience in the Champions League Qualifiers and so that is going to bring a tension of its own heading into the First Leg. Both clubs will know how much it means to them financially to be competing with the best teams in Europe rather than dropping into the Europa League.

Both teams have made positive starts to their domestic campaigns, but Sporting Lisbon might take some inspiration and confidence from the way Sparta Prague played against CSKA Moscow in the Third Qualifying Round. Sparta Prague have to feel they missed a trick having led 2-0 in the Second Leg following a 2-2 draw in Moscow, but they were pegged back and that will highlight the character that CSKA Moscow have.

Sporting Lisbon fans will also be looking for some revenge for their 2005 UEFA Cup Final defeat to CSKA Moscow in this stadium, but their club hasn't played well when hosting Russian teams. In fact all three home games against Russian opposition have ended in defeat for Sporting Lisbon and they conceded three times in each. 

If that happens again, you'd have to feel this tie is over, but the experience that manager Jorge Jesus, who comes over from Benfica, might be key for Sporting Lisbon to ensure it doesn't.

I can see both teams being really confident in this First Leg, but I can't overlook the goals CSKA Moscow conceded in the Third Qualifying Round to Sparta Prague. Sporting Lisbon are unlikely to let CSKA Moscow back in like Sparta Prague did in the last Round, while they have a very strong home record in recent games as well as in recent European games which included 2 wins in 3 Champions League Group Stage games last season.

On the other hand, CSKA Moscow haven't been the best travellers in recent Champions League seasons and Sporting Lisbon may have the narrow lead to take to the Russian capital next week.


Skenderbeu Korce v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: There is little doubt that Dinamo Zagreb are the favourites to beat Skenderbeu Korce over the two legs of this Champions League Play Off, especially with the experience the Croatian side have playing these types of games. They haven't used that fully to their advantage in the last couple of years with a couple of losses prior to the Champions League Group Stage, but they've played Europa League Group Stage football and Dinamo Zagreb have a lot more experience than Skenderbeu Korce.

The latter have already made history by becoming the first Albanian team to make the Group Stage of either European competition, but Skenderbeu Korce won't be satisfied with a place in the Europa League. Skenderbeu have been very good at home in European football, albeit not playing teams of the level of Dinamo Zagreb too often, and they might feel a positive result gives them a great chance to progress to the Champions League Group Stage.

Dinamo Zagreb have proved very effective away from home in the qualifiers though, winning 6 in a row before the run was ended in a 3-3 draw with Molde. However, Dinamo Zagreb were 0-3 up in Norway and had the big edge with the away goals after a goalless draw at home which allow complacency to set in as they blew the lead.

This is the First Leg so I am expecting Dinamo Zagreb to be focused throughout, but I think the Croatian side will be expecting to complete the win at home in the Second Leg. Their performances away from home in Champions League Qualifiers will see Dinamo Zagreb well backed even at odds on, but I have a feeling Skenderbeu Korce can give themselves a chance for the Second Leg.

The Albanian team have been strong at home in European games and they can give Dinamo Zagreb something to think about, if not quite win the game. I have to respect how well Dinamo Zagreb have done on their travels in Champions League Qualifiers, but I fancy Skenderbeu Korce will battle to keep this tie alive and might be worth backing on the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat.


Rapid Vienna v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: The First Legs of the Play Off ties in the Champions League last season were incredibly tight games that didn't produce a lot of goals. In fact two out of ten First Leg ties ended with two goals or fewer last season and just four out of ten the season before which goes to show how important these matches are for every team that is taking part.

Rapid Vienna and Shakhtar Donetsk could very possibly go in a different direction to the trend that runs through the First Leg ties over the last couple of years in this Round though.

All eight of Rapid Vienna's games in the 2015/16 season to this point have featured at least three goals as they have looked very good going forward, but also vulnerable at the back. Both games with Ajax in the Third Qualifying Round featured at least four goals scored and Rapid Vienna will be all too aware that they would like to take a lead to the Ukraine next week.

The question really is whether Shakhtar Donetsk will be able to impose their play on the First Leg as they have shown some defensive strength in the Champions League in the past. Shakhtar Donetsk have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 away games in the Champions League, although they did concede seven at Bayern Munich in the Knock Out Stage last season.

In those 5 games, Shakhtar Donetsk have scored seven against BATE Borisov, but only one goal in the other 4 games. In fact, Shakhtar Donetsk have scored just eight goals in their last 7 away games in the Champions League with seven coming in the one game against BATE. Shakhtar Donetsk should have chances in this one with the way Rapid Vienna approach things, but it might need an early goal to spark this match into life.

I fully expect Rapid Vienna to try and take the game to Shakhtar Donetsk and that should lead to a more open game than the Play Off Round First Legs generally produce. With all of the Rapid Vienna games hitting at least three goals shared, both teams should have opportunities in this one and hopefully an early goal will come to really get the entertainment going in the Austrian capital.


Valencia v Monaco Pick: There is some uncertainty in the Valencia squad as their new season gets underway with an important Champions League Play Off tie the first fixture for them to negotiate. Nicolas Otamendi looks certain to be leaving Valencia before the end of the transfer window and he is unlikely to be considered for this match, while meeting the dangerous Monaco team that most wanted to avoid.

Monaco are not the free-spending team of a couple of years ago, but there is still some talent in the squad and they are a particularly dangerous team on their travels. The pace and counter-attacking style is going to make them an awkward team for Valencia to deal with, especially when you consider Valencia are playing their first match of the season, but this is usually a fortress for the Spanish side.

Before a defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in 2013, Valencia had won all eight home games they had played against French opposition and will feel a lead in this First Leg will give them a big edge in Monte Carlo next week. You can't have anything but respect for a Monaco team that has won 3 of their last 4 away games in the Champions League, but all of the sales made over the last twelve months has to eventually take its toll on the squad.

I can only see a tight, tense battle develop between these teams, but Valencia have won their last 3 European games here, albeit two seasons ago, and won 15 of 19 home games in La Liga last season. The home advantage should give them the edge in this First Leg as long as they can control the Monaco counter-attack and deal with the potential fatigue that could set in as this is their first game.

Athletic Bilbao and Real Sociedad have negotiated two very tough ties in the Play Off Round in the last couple of years, the latter beating Lyon of France two years ago. I can see Valencia following suit by at least taking a lead to Monaco next week with a narrow win in the First Leg.


Sparta Prague v Thun Pick: If Sparta Prague can get past the disappointment of losing in the Champions League Third Qualifying Round, they will be a pretty big favourite to beat Thun in this Europa League Play Off Round. Sparta Prague did that twelve months ago after being beaten by Malmo in the Champions League as they comfortably saw off PEC Zwolle, although it is arguable that their defeat in the Champions League this season to CSKA Moscow was a more devastating one.

Either way, Sparta Prague have bounced back from that loss with back to back League wins and they had a very strong record at home in recent European games before the defeat to CSKA Moscow.

The confidence should still be higher in the home team than in the Thun camp who are currently bottom of the Switzerland Super League and face their toughest test in the Europa League this season. Thun are not good travellers in the competition in recent games and they have looked very vulnerable defensively which should give Sparta Prague the edge in this First Leg.

Sparta Prague have scored at least twice in all of their home games this season and last season they won 5 of their 6 home European games and all of those by at least two goals. Thun have been conceding far too many goals and Sparta Prague can definitely put themselves in a strong position for the Second Leg next week in Switzerland.


Ajax v Jablonec Pick: This is an interesting Europa League Play Off tie that might be more finely balanced than the layers initially thought as Ajax try to bounce back from a disappointing Champions League exit. Jablonec have shown their quality with an impressive 2-3 win at Copenhagen in the Third Qualifying Round, but the level goes up for them and they have struggled in previous years to bridge that gap.

Jablonec have been hard pressed to put together back to back seasons with high finishes in the Czech Republic domestic League and this looks another year where they will struggle to hit the heights of their 3rd place finish from last season.

In previous years in the Europa League, Jablonec have lost comfortably at AZ Alkmaar and Real Betis so visiting the Amsterdam Arena could be a really tough evening for them. Ajax didn't exactly show their defensive strength in their Champions League defeat to Rapid Vienna, but the side have plenty of goals in the squad and I think they can win this First Leg.

My one concern with this Asian Handicap has to be the fact that Ajax haven't really been able to win home games by more than a couple of goals in recent European games. However, many of those have come against teams of a higher quality than Jablonec who have yet to reach the Europa League Group Stage and I think the experiences Ajax have in the Champions League will help them put themselves in a strong position for the return leg in the Czech Republic.


Bordeaux v Kairat Almaty Pick: This hasn't been the start to the new season that Bordeaux would have hoped for as they blew a 1-0 lead in their opening game to fall to a defeat and failed to also win their second game of the new French Ligue 1 season. However, Bordeaux did see off AEK Larnaca in the Third Qualifying Round of the Europa League and I do think they are going to be a little too good for Kairat Almaty in this First Leg.

I would be surprised if Bordeaux under-estimated what Kairat Almaty are bringing to the table, but this is comfortably the toughest away game that the Kazakhstan team will have faced. The win in Belgrade over Red Star was impressive, but Kairat Almaty saw the home team reduced to ten men early in that game and it would take something similar to happen for them to earn the win here.

Of course Kairat Almaty will be confident having lost just 1 of their last 19 games in all competitions, but the level of opposition is not quite up to what Bordeaux should be able to bring to the table.

As long as there isn't complacency shown by Bordeaux, I think they can win the First Leg in a manner that could make life a lot easier when they make the long, long trip to Kazakhstan next week. I do wonder if that travel has taken something from Kairat Almaty in this game too, although they dealt with the trip to Aberdeen effectively.

Unfortunately Bordeaux are a stronger side than Aberdeen and I fancy them to win this one and cover the Asian Handicap.


Odd Grenland v Borussia Dortmund Pick: There does look to be a big gap in quality between Odd Grenland and Borussia Dortmund and I would expect that to show up in both Legs of this Play Off tie, including in Norway. The start that Borussia Dortmund have made to the new season has only increased the expectation on them and I would be surprised with anything other than a lead to be taken back to Germany next week.

However, the layers are taking no chances with Borussia Dortmund and they are being asked to cover a couple of goals if you want a full pay out for a win here. Instead I think there is something in the fact that Dortmund have yet to concede a goal this season and I think they can go to Norway and come back with a lead coupled with a clean sheet.

Odd Grenland have scored plenty of goals at home in recent games but the quality they have faced is not up to the level that Borussia Dortmund can produce. If the home side is perhaps a little overawed, Dortmund should have control of the game and that should see them through with a clean sheet.

Borussia Dortmund won a couple of their away games in the Champions League Group Stage without conceding last season and they also beat Wolfsberger in the Third Qualifying Round with a clean sheet. Backing them to win the First Leg in Norway in the same manner looks a decent shout.


Southampton v Midtjylland Pick: The Europa League has regularly made it difficult for teams in England to balance their commitments to this competition as well as maintaining their Premier League form. That is always a big concern for some of the smaller squads in the Premier League and while West Ham United made it clear they were not going to put in a full team in this competition in the early Rounds, Ronald Koeman has spoken of the importance of the Europa League for Southampton.

It would be a real surprise if the 0-3 loss to Everton has completely reversed his opinion, so Southampton should have a strong team out in a difficult looking tie. Midtjylland are used to winning games and are once again on top of the Danish domestic League as they bid to retain the title they won last season, while they have dropped out of the Champions League into the Europa League.

This is a team that has produced some really solid results away from home in recent European ties, although they haven't been able to turn those results into wins over two Legs. Midtjylland have won both away games played in the Champions League, but they were beaten handily by Panathinaikos in the Europa League last season and Southampton will feel they can get the better of them.

That will be far from easy for The Saints who need to bounce back from a disappointing home performance last weekend. Southampton had some nerves to contend with in their home win over Vitesse in the Third Qualifying Round and rumours that Saido Mane is a target for Manchester United might also unsettle them a little.

However, you have to think home field is going to be important in this one despite all the winning that Midtjylland have done both at home and in Europe to open the season. Southampton will look to put themselves in a commanding position before the return Leg in Denmark and I think they can cover the Asian Handicap after coming through some nervy moments in this First Leg on the south coast.

MY PICKS: Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sporting Lisbon @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Skenderbeu Korce + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Rapid Vienna-Shakhtar Donetsk Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Betway (2 Units)
Valencia @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Sparta Prague - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Ajax - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bordeaux - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Borussia Dortmund Win to Nil @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Southampton - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

August Update: 2-12, - 17.70 Units (26 Units Staked, - 68.08% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Final Thoughts on Weekend Football (August 18-20)

This was a regular piece I put together last season where I would look back at the weekend's football and put down my 'final thoughts' on some of the issues we see transpired.

I will usually put it together on a Monday night, but I didn't much feel like writing after the disappointing start to the season made by Manchester United at Everton.

These are my final thoughts on the opening weekend of the season:

Don't be too quick to make rash judgements: I don't know if it is down to people missing football, but there seemed to be a lot of 'fans' deciding how the next nine months were going to go after watching their opening games of the season.

Eden Hazard will be the Player of the Year, Andre Villa-Boas is a poor manager that won't be in charge on Christmas Day, Swansea will be safe from the drop (even though they were tipped heavily for relegation before the season began) and some even suggested Robin Van Persie was a poor signing after his 20 minute cameo.

The same time last year there wouldn't have been too many calling Bolton Wanderers for relegation after they beat Queens Park Rangers 0-4 at Loftus Road, and that is a prime example of making a rash judgement on one game.

Sean O'Driscoll of Nottingham Forest said a 'good start is ten games' and that is when we will begin to see how the season will take shape. There were some real positive performances for some of the teams and individuals, but it would be foolish to take those as the norms rather than it just being one game and a long way to go this season.


Can Everton gate-crash the top four: I think the two Manchester clubs are going to finish in the top two places this season and I also believe Chelsea are going to be good enough to move into the top four after finishing 6th last season.

With some of the doubts surrounding the Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur teams, I think there is an open space in the Champions League places that could be filled by a surprise candidate like Everton.

The obvious 'dark horse' pick is Newcastle United who came so close last season, but I wrote in my season preview that Everton could move up from their finish of 7th last season as long as they can steer clear of injuries and their performance on Monday night suggests that could be the case.

David Moyes still has a bit of cash left over from the Jack Rodwell sale and he has worked some miracles in the transfer market over the last few seasons at Goodison Park and he does seem to have a solid 14-15 players that can do a job for him.

They will need some luck, but I wouldn't want to rule Moyes out from achieving this and really padding his CV and perhaps getting an opportunity to manage a 'bigger club' sooner rather than later.


Southampton could be the big surprises in the Premier League: I said that it would be silly to make a rash judgement, but here I am making a rash judgement.

I was very impressed with the Southampton counter-attack on Sunday at Manchester City and they have players that are going to be capable at this level. Nigel Adkins clearly can inspire his players and they have the same philosophy that served Blackpool so well the year before last.

The one question is whether they can perform when there is a little more expectation on them- at City no one expected them to win, but they next meet Wigan at home, a game they would have targeted for three points if they are to survive in the Premier League.

Still, I was very impressed with their composure in front of goal and confidence is clearly still high in the squad after back to back promotions and they may just confound all those that tipped them for relegation this season.


The Championship is not for the faint-hearted or for those relegated from the Premier League: Blackburn Rovers, Bolton Wanderers and Wolves gained 1 point from their 3 separate games last weekend (although Bolton and Wolves have since won their first home games in the next set of League fixtures during the week) and I think they have all learned how tough it is to get out of a competitive Championship Division.

Only 6 of the last 24 teams to be relegated from the Premier League have found their way back into the top flight at the first time of asking which shows there is every chance that none of the aforementioned teams will earn their way back into the Premier League this season.

Last season West Ham United did make their way back to the top flight, and the other two relegated sides were both Play Off teams, but it is such a competitive League.

I was going to say that Bolton and especially Wolves need a win soon to bring back some confidence in the side, but both managed that on Tuesday night. It's a tough long season for these sides so getting a win on board early is important so that will give Bolton and Wolves a boost, but there are so many sides that can beat others on their day and that makes it difficult for those relegated.

I don't think there is a massive difference between those relegated and those that have been in the Division for more than one season, especially as the relegated teams rarely get to keep hold of their big names.

Right now, I would still pick Blackburn Rovers as being the most likely to return to the top flight at the first attempt, but history points out that it is not going to be easy for any of these sides and the early results have backed that up.

Weekend Football Picks (August 18-20)

The new season will be beginning this weekend, even though it only feels like yesterday that the last one ended.

As always, I will post my picks on here over the next couple of days.

You can read my breakdown of the Premier League and the individual clubs here

I also have a full view on Manchester United, my club, that can be read here


Fulham v Norwich City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14648-Fulham-v-Norwich-City.htm)

Queens Park Rangers v Swansea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14650-QPR-v-Swansea.htm)

Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14652-Newcastle-United-v-Tottenham-Hotspur.htm)

West Ham United v Aston Villa Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14660-West-Ham-United-v-Aston-Villa.htm)

Ipswich Town v Blackburn Rovers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14669-Ipswich-Town-v-Blackburn-Rovers.htm)

Manchester City v Southampton Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14677-Manchester-City-v-Southampton.htm)

Everton v Manchester United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14686-Everton-v-Manchester-United.htm)


MY PICKS: Fulham @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Queens Park Rangers @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
West Ham United-Aston Villa Draw @ 3.50 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ipswich Town-Blackburn Rovers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 1.92 Coral (4 Units)
Everton-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)