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Thursday, 4 April 2013

NBA April Picks 2013

The NBA is just about at the Play Off phase of this year and that means the final two weeks of the regular season is a bit of a minefield. Some teams are beginning to wind down their starters for the post-season, some are still fighting for Play Off position and others are just trying to get into the post-season.

Then you have teams that are looking to improve their lottery position and begin to tank during their final games with next season and holidays in mind.

All of this means you have to be careful when capping games before the Play Offs begin and try to get a feel for motivations of teams and what wins and losses mean to them at this late stage of the regular season.

Last season, this period of to weeks before the Play Offs proved troubling for me and hopefully I will be able to keep a little more focused this time around.


April 4th
Chicago Bulls @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: I know there is still this race for the Number 4 seed in the Eastern Conference with both of these teams involved, but I have a feeling the Bulls are already looking to the Play Offs and will be happy as either the Number 6 or Number 7 seed.

They will be short-handed again tonight and I think Brooklyn are definitely playing the better basketball. Brooklyn are off a long road trip, but they were able to rest their starters in the win over Cleveland last night so I expect the Nets will be ready to go.


Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets Pick: The Denver Nuggets are on course to finish as the Number 3 seed in the Western Conference and I believe they want that position desperately to avoid what would be an incredibly tough First Round against either Memphis or the LA Clippers.

Denver have been incredibly tough at home and may be able to snap their two game losing run here against the Dallas Mavericks who have to be a little disheartened following their heavy loss at the LA Lakers in their last game.

That loss has really put Dallas in a tough spot to make it back to the Play Offs, and I think Denver will be too strong for them, even in the absence of Ty Lawson and I like the Nuggets to cover.


April 5th
Tough start to the month with both picks falling by the wayside, both in difficult circumstances. Today, I have four picks from the NBA which can be seen in the 'My Picks' section as I haven't had the time to put down full reasons for them.


April 9th
Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks are looking to go into the Play Offs with some huge momentum behind them as they put their winning streak on the line against the Washington Wizards.

I have little doubt that Washington would be playing in the Play Offs if they hadn't had so many key injuries to open the season and they have certainly been ahead of the point spread more often than not. However, the Knicks do match up well against them, even without Tyson Chandler, and I think New York maintain their winning run.



Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat Pick: This looks like being one of the First Round Play Off match ups and that means the game here could be interesting to watch as neither team will want to give away their secrets. The Milwaukee Bucks can still catch up with the Boston Celtics for the Number 7 seed if they can finish the season strong so they will want to win this game, although that won't be easy against the Miami Heat with LeBron James in the line up.

If Milwaukee get hot from beyond the arc, I certainly can see them keeping this close, but too many times I have seen the Bucks fall apart on the road and I think the Heat can take this win with the cover.


Phoenix Suns @ Houston Rockets Pick: Houston are in a position to try and get their seed improved to Number 6 in the Western Conference and I have no doubt they will want to avoid both the San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the First Round by overtaking the Golden State Warriors.

Facing the Phoenix Suns comes at the right time as the Suns are clearly playing out the string at the end of this season and Houston recorded a 20 point win over Phoenix here last month. I think the Rockets have too much scoring power for a Phoenix team that has not been performing on that side of the court and I think Houston can cover this big spread.



New Orleans Hornets @ LA Lakers Pick: The LA Lakers are in a desperate position when it comes to the Play Offs and they will certainly be looking to finish the season with 5 straight wins and hope the Utah Jazz can drop a couple of games to let the Lakers into the post-season.

A loss to the Clippers and a sweep in that series has hurt the Lakers, but they do play the New Orleans Hornets who have been struggling a little down the stretch and certainly have had some problems between some of the players and Monty Williams, the Head Coach. I just think the Lakers may rally in this one and cover the spread, although they may also have one eye on how Utah are getting on against the Oklahoma City Thunder.


April 10th
Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics Pick: There is a small chance that this could be one of the First Round match ups in the Play Offs, although I don't think the Boston Celtics are going to be worrying about improving from either the Number 6 or Number 7 seed in the Eastern Conference. That would mean they would avoid the Miami Heat until the Eastern Conference Finals, although Boston are still trying to hold off the Milwaukee Bucks in Number 8.

I think the Celtics will likely be a little too strong for Brooklyn in this game with the latter perhaps already looking to keep the troops fresh  for the Play Offs with the Number 4 seed almost certainly wrapped up. Boston are back to full health, or as full as they are going to be going into the Play Offs and I think the Celtics win this one and cover the spread.


Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks are backing into the Play Offs and will surely want to get some momentum ahead of the the likely First Round clash with the Miami Heat. The Bucks lost in Miami last night, but they have the scoring power, on occasion, to beat the Orlando Magic tonight.

Orlando have just begun to struggle as injuries have taken their toll on the squad over the season and I think they can't see the season end soon enough. There will be some motivation from the players that were traded from the Bucks to the Magic for JJ Redick, for example Tobias Harris, but I think the Bucks have enough three point scorers to pull away for the win.


San Antonio Spurs @ Denver Nuggets Pick: This is a game between two of the better teams in the Western Conference, but both teams will look a little different to how they want to go into the Play Offs as injuries take their toll.

However, Denver still have the athletic ability to make life tough for the older San Antonio Spurs and their home record is very impressive that I think the Nuggets pull away for the vital win that puts them a step closer to picking up the Number 3 seed in the West that is going to be very important.


April 11th
New York Knicks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: The Chicago Bulls are just concerned with getting healthy for the Play Offs and they are missing too many important bodies to win this one in my opinion. New York are in great form and, even without Tyson Chandler, I think the Knicks are more motivated to win this game and should be able to do so while covering the spread.

Unlike Brooklyn here recently, I think if New York get a big lead, they are shooting well enough from beyond the arc to keep ahead of the Bulls and are unlikely to blow a big lead. Momentum is the key to the Knicks, who want the Number 2 seed, and I don't think Chicago will be that disheartened if they finish either Number 6 or Number 7 in the East and that means losing games down the stretch, so I can't see enough fight in them to take this one.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors Pick: I like the Oklahoma City Thunder to win this one in California as they have been playing in Play Off mode all month and definitely want to pick up the Number 1 seed in the Western Conference.

I also believe Golden State are motivated, but they may just have relaxed enough after securing their Play Off place on Tuesday to think they struggle to keep up with the Thunder. However, I do respect this Warriors squad that are capable of scoring plenty of points, particularly at home, although I do think the Thunder find a way to win and cover.



April 12th
Not quite sure how the Knicks blew the lead they had last night... Two silly turnovers midway through the third changed the feeling of the game and gave Chicago the momentum to take over and eventually rally for the season sweep.

Been having a nightmare with my laptop this evening so only putting the picks up for the NBA games on slate tonight which can be found below.


MY PICKS: 04/04 Brooklyn Nets - 5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
04/04 Denver Nuggets - 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
05/04 New York Knicks - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
05/04 Minnesota Timberwolves - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
05/04 Utah Jazz - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
05/04 Golden State Warriors - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
09/04 New York Knicks - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
09/04 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
09/04 Houston Rockets - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
09/04 LA Lakers - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
10/04 Boston Celtics - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
10/04 Milwaukee Bucks - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
10/04 Denver Nuggets - 3 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
11/04 New York Knicks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
11/04 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
12/04 Washington Wizards - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
12/04 Atlanta Hawks - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
12/04 Denver Nuggets - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
12/04 Golden State Warriors + 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)


April Update: 6-9, - 3.40 Units


March Final20-16-1, + 3.08 Units
February Final6-3, + 2.61 Units
January Final5-14, - 9.31 Units
December Final17-7-1, + 9.19 Units
November Final13-8-1, + 8.03 Units

Season 201361-48-3, + 13.60 Units
Season 201279-53-1, + 27.48 Units

Friday, 1 March 2013

NBA Picks March 2013

This is a key month for so many teams in the NBA as Play Off hopes can be made or broken at this points. Teams like the LA Lakers and the Dallas Mavericks are in their 'last chance saloon' and can't afford to take any nights off if they are to close on the Western Conference Play Offs, while teams like Oklahoma City and Miami will be looking to build momentum.

The Play Offs are six weeks away and the trade deadline has passed, while the All-Star weekend is a memory now. Those events usually signify the start of the Play Off run and teams will be jockeying for position in the top eight of each Conference.

One other element of this time of the year is there are always some teams that decide to play out the rest of the season half-heartedly. Teams will look to give themselves a best shot at getting a top draft pick once they realise the Play Offs are beyond them and that is another factor to take into consideration.


March 1st
Indiana Pacers @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Indiana Pacers came close to rallying from a big deficit in the final quarter of their defeat to the LA Clippers, but I can see them getting back to winning ways in this one.

Roy Hibbert is well rested and will join the team in Canada after being suspended yesterday and there were definite signs that Danny Granger is beginning to feel himself on the court. On the other hand, Toronto have lost their last couple of games following a bright start since trading for Rudy Gay and they have looked a team far too reliant on Gay and DeMar DeRozan.

It is weird that 2 of Indiana's 6 home losses have come against the Raptors, but the Pacers have won 3 in a row in Toronto and the Raptors haven't been a great small dog so far this season.


Houston Rockets @ Orlando Magic Pick: This looks a really tough game for the Orlando Magic who could just be the worst team in the NBA. Orlando are going to be short-handed again for this game with JJ Redick traded away and the likes of Jameer Nelson, Glen Davis and Hedo Turkoglu all missing for this one.

It won't help that they are playing a Houston team that can push the ball at a really high tempo and could gas the remaining players on the Orlando roster. The Magic have also lost their last 4 home games by double digits and they are just not the same team that beat Houston earlier this season to extend their run to 5 wins in the series.


New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards Pick: The New York Knicks look to have righted a few wrongs in recent games and are back to trying to chase down the Miami Heat at the top of the Eastern Conference. They will also look to reignite their dominance of the Washington Wizards after losing here a month ago.

My concern is that the Knicks could potentially be looking beyond this game to their big Sunday clash with the Miami Heat, but I feel they are playing better than Washington at the moment. John Wall is in a bit of a slump for the home team and the Knicks could just be too strong this time around against one of the toughest underdogs in the NBA.


Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns Pick: The Phoenix Suns have won their last two games, both in overtime, and they are fresh off a really surprising win at San Antonio. There is every chance they could be a little flat in this home game against an Eastern Conference team and that could spell defeat for the Suns here.

Phoenix are out of contention in the Play Offs and host an Atlanta Hawks team that has won 4 in a row and 6 of their last 7 games. Atlanta kept their roster together before the trade deadline and while they are not likely to be NBA Champions, the Hawks will certainly be a Play Off team that could cause some problems.

The Hawks have won 5 straight road games and they may just be able to take advantage of a flat Phoenix team in this one.


March 2nd
Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls Pick: The Brooklyn Nets put in a lacklustre effort in their loss to the Dallas Mavericks at home last night, but that was a game against a Western Conference opponent and they could have been looking ahead to this game in Chicago.

The Bulls look set to be a little short-handed for this game and just haven't played that well in recent games and the Nets are certainly capable of keeping this game close at the very least. They have already played a couple of close games earlier this season and I think the Nets are getting a couple of points too many in my opinion.


Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: Milwaukee are trying to hold off the likes of Toronto in the race for the Eastern Conference Play Offs and they can put some real distance between the teams if they can win their 9th in a row in the series.

The Bucks are also 8-2 against the spread in the last 10 of the series and they have won a couple of big games to get back on the right path in the last few days. I also feel that the Raptors have just hit the buffers after a very good start with Rudy Gay in the line up after the trade with Memphis.


March 3rd
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks have beaten the Miami Heat in both meetings this season and have taken 3 of the last 4 games in the series, but the Heat are playing very close to the top of their game right now and this is a tough test for the Knicks.

Miami have won 13 in a row to open up a big lead in the Eastern Conference, but this game will mean more than just extending that lead. LeBron James and Dwyane Wade have loved playing in the Garden and I think the Heat are going to look for a statement win. The Knicks have won 3 in a row ahead of this game, but they haven't been playing as well over the last couple of weeks as the Heat and I like Miami to get a measure of revenge after earlier defeats this season.


Atlanta Hawks @ LA Lakers Pick: The LA Lakers have a chance to get back to 0.500 for the first time since December, and they are also very much back in the Western Conference Play Off picture thanks to the struggles of the likes of the Golden State Warriors, Utah Jazz and Houston Rockets at the bottom of the seedings.

The Lakers have dominated Atlanta at home in recent games in the series, and Kobe Bryant is playing like he was at the start of the season and pouring in the points. Atlanta have been playing well with all the uncertainty about their roster being put back until the off-season, but the Hawks have struggled at the Staples Center and I think the Lakers are going to be a little too good for them.


March 4th
Charlotte Bobcats @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: The Portland Trail Blazers can't afford to lose games like this if they have serious ambitions of getting involved in the Western Conference Play Off picture. The Trail Blazers have been very strong at home in recent games and they have been able to score plenty of points at home.

The Bobcats will be returning home after this game and they have suffered 3 successive blow-out losses on their recent Western road trip. They have struggled at the Rose Garden and I can see Portland rolling them over in this one.


Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors Pick: Another team that will be glad to be getting home this week are the Golden State Warriors who have struggled on a recent road trip. At home it has been a different story for the Warriors as they look to establish their position in the Western Conference Play Offs.

They should be able to continue their dominance of the Toronto Raptors who have struggled the last week or so since Rudy Gay has been struggling with back spasms. Golden State have scored a lot of points and it is going to be tough for the Raptors to keep up.


March 5th
LA Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder are the best team in the Western Conference and will remain focused on knocking off the LA Lakers after seeing the latter get back into Play Off contention.

The Thunder have the athleticism and speed to cause plenty of problems for the Lakers and they have won 5 in a row against the Lakers at home. After losing in the Staples Center at the end of January, I expect Oklahoma City to be fired up and push the Lakers back under the 0.500 mark.


Denver Nuggets @ Sacramento Kings Pick: Denver are looking to get into the top four of the Western Conference and at least give themselves the First Round of the Play Offs with home court advantage considering their dominance in Colorado. They have dominated the Kings and can win this game despite struggling on the road all season.

Sacramento have proved tough to beat at home, but they don't match up well with Denver and I think the Nuggets cover before turning their attention to a big game against the LA Clippers on Thursday.


March 6th
Brooklyn Nets @ Charlotte Bobcats Pick: The Brooklyn Nets need to pick up their game if they are going to have any success in the next couple of weeks with a number of road games to come. Facing the Charlotte Bobcats who have lost 7 straight by 22 points per game should give the Nets every chance to do so.

The Bobcats will also been short-handed for this game and have struggled against the Nets in the recent games in the series. I expect Brooklyn to respond to PJ Carlesimo changing his line up a little and look for the Nets to pull away late.


LA Lakers @ New Orleans Hornets Pick: Yesterday I picked the Oklahoma City to be too strong for the LA Lakers, but this is arguably a bigger game for them if they are to make it into the Western Conference Play Offs. The Lakers can try handling the better teams in the post-season, but dropping games to the likes of the Hornets will almost certainly see them miss out on the Play Offs.

The Hornets don't match up well with the Lakers and even though the Lakers have been bad in back to back situations, I think they'll be able to pick up an important W in this one.


March 8th
Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics Pick: I like Boston to make it 9 in a row at home tonight with the way they have been playing since Rajon Rondo was injured for the season. Atlanta have struggled a little in recent games and this is an important game for the Celtics as they look to finish with the Number 4 seed in the Eastern Conference at the least.

Boston have also been pretty dominant against Atlanta at home and I like them to cover tonight.


Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat Pick: You don't really want to play the Miami Heat when you are complaining about tiredness and 'needing a rest' but that is the backdrop to Philadelphia's visit to South Beach.

Miami go for 17 straight in this one and will likely be more focused after just about coming through against Orlando and I think they pose big problems for Philadelphia in this one. It is a big spread, but the Heat can cover if they stay committed throughout the 48 minutes.


Toronto Raptors @ LA Lakers Pick: The LA Lakers just about kept their nerve to beat the New Orleans Hornets in their last game, coming back from 25 down and also going on a 20-0 run in the final six minutes to win the game.

The Lakers have dominated games at the Staples Center against Toronto and they have won 4 straight here, while it is possible they catch the Raptors looking ahead to returning home following a 4 game road trip at Western Conference teams. I expect it will be close for a while, but like the Lakers to pull away late to win and cover.


March 10th
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Pick: While LeBron James is playing down the significance of this game, I think there is little doubt that the Heat are focused on winning this game in style to make a statement to the rest of the Eastern Conference that they are not ready to give up their crown.

I think the absence of Danny Granger will be felt more on the road than it has in the two home wins for the Pacers over the Heat and I like Miami to put up a big win in this one.


Detroit Pistons @ LA Clippers Pick: There are a lot of trends favouring the LA Clippers in this one, including Detroit's horrible record as a double-digit underdog this season and I think the couple of days rest for the Clippers will have them focused to cover the spread in this one.

The Clippers are 9-1 against the spread on two days rest this season and I think they can take advantage of a short-handed Detroit team with the Clippers bench providing the spark to put them away in this one.


March 11th
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: I really like the Brooklyn Nets in this spot as Philadelphia could be looking ahead to their next game with the Miami Heat now there is little chance they make it into the Play Offs.

A couple of trends really stick out too: the 76ers are a terrible 4-11 against the spread in the second of back to back nights play, while they are 6-10 against the spread when playing a team with a 0.500 record at home. Brooklyn are also 9-3 against the spread when playing on the road at sub 0.500 teams and I think they win and cover in this one.


Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns Pick: Denver are the hottest team in the NBA, outside of the Miami Heat, and they are fully focused on getting into the top four into the Western Conference. They should be too good for the Suns and will be focused after a 10 point loss here in their last visit.

I liked the Nuggets to win by double-digits here on current form and will add them to the staking plan.


March 12th
LA Lakers @ Orlando Magic Pick: This is the return of Dwight Howard to his former home for the first time since he forced his trade out of Orlando and the thinking is that the Orlando Magic will play hard and beat the Lakers.

While I think the Magic play hard, it is a much changed roster from even a season ago and only one player on their team tonight would have played with Howard, so that should tell you how much things have changed here. I expect the fans to be boisterous and intimidating, but the Lakers are playing with their Play Off faces on at the moment and I like them to win and cover.


March 13th
Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: The Miami Heat have dominated the Philadelphia 76ers in recent games in the regular season and the Heat have also comfortably handled them twice during their 19 game winning run.

The spread looks a touch low against the Heat who have won by an average of 11.5 points per game during their run and have beaten Philadelphia by at least 9 points in both games this season.


Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Utah Jazz are short-handed for this game and are playing a motivated Oklahoma City Thunder team that will be looking to bounce back from their defeat to the San Antonio Spurs.

The Thunder have been very good as the big favourite this season, and I can see the Jazz focusing on returning home at the weekend and perhaps taking a bit of a blow out loss in this one.


March 15th
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets Pick: There isn't a lot to say about this one except Houston are very good at home and Minnesota have struggled on the road and are going to be short-handed yet again with injuries destroying any semblance of a season.

The Timberwolves have also been a bad double-digit underdog, going 0-6 against the spread in that role this season. Houston need to keep winning and won't take the Wolves lightly after going 1-4 against them in recent games and I think the Rockets win big.


Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The Chicago Bulls have a number of Offensive weapons out of action and could be looking forward to returning home after more road struggles. They have lost 5 in a row on the road, scoring just 81.4 points per game, while they have lost 11 of 13 here in Oakland.

Golden State need to keep winning to earn their place in the Western Conference Play Offs and their home form will dictate if they reach that stage- with recent dominance of the Bulls and the way they have been playing themselves, I like the Warriors to cover.


March 17th
Miami Heat @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Miami Heat continue winning and winning and I expect they will continue that run here before heading to Boston tomorrow night.

The Heat have been dominant when heading to Canada to take on the Raptors and I expect more of the same here as they cover the spread.


Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets Pick: Houston have been very dominant in the recent games between these teams, including winning all 3 games this season. I think they can go on and cover in this one as they have matched up well with Golden State and I do think home court will prove to be the difference.

The Rockets are 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 home games against the Warriors and I am expecting a better effort throughout the game, unlike that first half performance against Minnesota on Friday night. Houston should be able to score enough points here to see off the Warriors.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: The Dallas Mavericks are closing all the time to the Western Conference Play Off places, but this could be too much of a challenge for them against the red-hot Oklahoma City Thunder.

The Thunder have won all 3 games against Dallas this season and will be focused for this game between rivals. The first two games were close, but the third was a blow out and I think the Thunder have too much depth for the Mavericks to cope with. Add to that the fact that the Thunder are 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in their recent games here in Dallas and I like OKC to cover tonight.

One concern is that they have big Western Conference games coming up against the likes of Denver and Memphis, but the rivalry should keep them locked in for this game.


March 18th
Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: The Philadelphia 76ers may be out of Play Off contention, but they have been playing hard in recent games and I think they see off the Portland Trail Blazers who have struggled on the road all season.

Philadelphia are off back to back tough performances against the leading two teams in the Eastern Conference, so I am a little concerned they could be flat for this one. However, Doug Collins has been talking up his teams efforts and I feel they will put in the energy for this home game and can win the game and cover.


Brooklyn Nets @ Detroit Pistons Pick: Brooklyn were beaten comfortably by the Atlanta Hawks last night, but I think they can recover to win their third game against Detroit this season. The players were not overly disheartened with their loss to the Hawks and said they were glad they can get back on the court as soon as the next day to right the wrongs of the loss.

The Nets have every chance of finishing as high as the Number 2 seed in the East, but also know they could drop as low as 8 depending on their run to end the season. However, they have been strong when playing teams with losing records, going 9-4 against the spread on the road and I like Brooklyn to cover in this one.


Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Pick: There is no love lost between these teams as both put long streaks on the line- Miami are going for number 23 straight in the regular season, while Boston haven't been beaten at home for a while. For me, Miami are playing at too high a level to be slowed down enough by the Celtics and I think they can right the stat of never winning here in the regular season since LeBron James signed to play on South Beach.

I have a lot of respect for the Boston team that have rallied together in the absence of Rajon Rondo, but the Heat are playing at a really high level and I expect the streak to continue.


Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls Pick: My biggest concern is that the Denver Nuggets are facing the Oklahoma City Thunder tomorrow and may not be fully invested in this game, although to earn a top four seed in the Western Conference means Denver can't really drop any game.

They are facing a short-handed Chicago team that did wallop Golden State on Friday night, but one that may not be able to handle the speed and depth that Denver can provide. The Bulls are only 4-11 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record at home this season and Denver have the momentum of being on the second longest winning streak that is active at the moment.


March 20th
Milwaukee Bucks @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: I know the Hawks laid an egg against Dallas in their last game, but I think they could have been caught looking ahead to this one and I like their chances to put a big W in the column.

Both teams are in the mix, fighting for position in the Eastern Conference, and Atlanta have been the stronger team in recent games. Monta Ellis is going to be a little banged up for the Bucks and I think the Hawks cover.


Brooklyn Nets @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: Dallas are the more desperate team and arguably playing their best basketball of the season right now. While Brooklyn have been successful on the road, I think the Mavericks are going to be a little too good for them in this game.

Dallas are putting in full attention to every game they play and have pushed San Antonio and Oklahoma City hard enough to think they can do enough to see off the Nets at home.


March 22nd
Detroit Pistons @ Miami Heat Pick: This is a big spread for the Heat to cover, but the Pistons have looked bad the last couple of weeks as injuries take their toll. I expect Miami to be a lot more focused than they have begun their last two games and I think they can pull away from Detroit, although any lumbering beginning will kill the cover before the game is really gotten going.


Memphis Grizzlies @ New Orleans Hornets Pick: This looks a big letdown spot for the Memphis Grizzlies after their last second win over the Oklahoma City Thunder, but they just can't afford to drop any Conference games if they are to finish in the top four in the Western Conference.

The New Orleans Hornets are no pushovers, despite their poor record, but I expect stifling defence to guide the Grizzlies to the win and cover.


March 29th
Got three picks today, but haven't got the time to put down reasons for them so you can find them in the 'My Picks' thread with the relevant date.


MY PICKS: 01/03 Indiana Pacers - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
01/03 Houston Rockets - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
01/03 New York Knicks - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
01/03 Atlanta Hawks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
02/03 Brooklyn Nets + 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
02/03 Milwaukee Bucks - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
03/03 Miami Heat - 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
03/03 Atlanta Hawks -5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
04/03 Portland Trail Blazers - 13.5 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
04/03 Golden State Warriors - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
05/03 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
05/03 Denver Nuggets - 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
06/03 Brooklyn Nets - 9 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
06/03 LA Lakers - 2 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
08/03 Boston Celtics - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
08/03 Miami Heat - 12.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
08/03 LA Lakers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
10/03 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
10/03 LA Clippers - 14 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
11/03 Brooklyn Nets - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
11/03 Denver Nuggets - 9 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
12/03 LA Lakers - 8 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
13/03 Miami Heat - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
13/03 Oklahoma City Thunder - 13 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

15/03 Houston Rockets - 14 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
15/03 Golden State Warriors - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
17/03 Miami Heat - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
17/03 Houston Rockets - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
17/03 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
18/03 Philadelphia 76ers - 1 Point @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
18/03 Brooklyn Nets - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
18/03 Miami Heat - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
18/03 Denver Nuggets - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
20/03 Atlanta Hawks - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
20/03 Dallas Mavericks - 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/03 Miami Heat - 15.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
22/03 Memphis Grizzlies - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/03 New York Knicks - 14 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/03 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/03 Denver Nuggets - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


March Update: 20-16-1, + 3.08 Units


February Final6-3, + 2.61 Units
January Final5-14, - 9.31 Units
December Final17-7-1, + 9.19 Units
November Final13-8-1, + 8.03 Units

Season 201341-32-2, + 10.52 Units
Season 201279-53-1, + 27.48 Units

Saturday, 23 February 2013

NBA Picks February 2013

I didn't have a great January so decided to take a short break from the NBA picks in the current season. February is always one of those months when you have to be a little careful as the All-Star weekend and then the trade deadline makes it hard to establish whether teams are playing 'hard' or whether players are looking forward to a break and a possible change in destination.

The big point is that most teams take the All-Star weekend as the 'end of the first half' despite the fact that more regular season games are played before that point than there will be after. The 'good' teams also start getting themselves into Play Off mode at this point and there is less coasting going on through games and so we should see less 'crazy scores' than we may have done before that point.

Over the next couple of months, the biggest news stories will likely be surrounding the LA Lakers in their bid to make the Play Offs, although they look in a tough spot in the Western Conference. The Lakers have the big name players but can no longer believe that the ship will be righted without a big effort. While there have been signs that Kobe Bryant, Dwight Howard and Steve Nash are getting on the same page, their problems on the road look certain to cost them unless they can rally together.

Of course, the sad news currently with the Lakers was the passing of Dr Jerry Buss just after the All-Star weekend. It is an emotional time for all connected with the Lakers as Buss was the man who brought 'Showtime' to the masses and Kobe Bryant has tried to rally his team-mates by telling them to make the Play Offs in memory of their owner.

There are just 6 days left in February, but I will have a few picks to close the month and then hope to kick on in March.


February 23rd
Houston Rockets @ Washington Wizards Pick: This looks a bit of a trappy line considering how well Houston have played in recent games, but I do think the Rockets can get the better of the Washington Wizards in this one.

The Wizards are a tough team to play in Washington and they are off an impressive win over the Denver Nuggets last night and I believe that would have taken more out of them than the Houston win in Brooklyn on the same evening.

Houston have dominated the recent series between these teams and are hot from beyond the arc so I like them here.


Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: When you talk about teams playing at an extremely high level, you have to talk about the LeBron James powered Miami Heat who have been looking like the team to beat in the NBA this season. The Heat are going for their 10th straight win and have already recorded big road wins at Oklahoma City and Chicago in that run.

The problem for Philadelphia all season is that their risky trade to bring in Andrew Bynum has just not worked with the Center yet to play a game in their uniform. Losing Andre Iguodala was a big deal and they haven't matched up well with the Heat.

I think the Heat have another focused effort before going home and record another success in Philadelphia.


Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The Indiana Pacers have dominated their Divisional rivals the Detroit Pistons this season and I am looking for them to complete the sweep in this home and home spot.

The Pacers detroyed the Pistons last night in Indiana and both teams have travelled here in differing hearts. Indiana have now won 8 of their last 10 games while Detroit have lost 4 of 6 at home and it does seem Indiana have a clear edge in the contest.

Danny Granger may also make his season debut for Indiana in this one and they look strong enough to take care of the Pistons again.


February 25th
Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I think the Atlanta Hawks can grab a vital victory at the Palace of Auburn Hills in this one- I thought it would have been a much changed Hawks team taking to the court after the trade deadline, but they have kept their roster together although unlikely to make a challenge for a title.

They face a short-handed Detroit team who will be missing Will Bynum through suspension and one that has taken back to back pastings from the Indiana Pacers. While the Pistons have been very good in the recent series with Atlanta, I just feel they are one of those teams that could have a slower final two months of the season.

It'll likely be close, but I expect the Hawks can pull away late in this one before a Western Conference road trip.


LA Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Pick: The LA Lakers are just one game away from getting back to 0.500 and they have closed to 2.5 games behind the Houston Rockets in the chase for a Play Off berth in the Western Conference. However, they will be severely tested in this one as they head to Denver to take on the Nuggets with a very strong home record.

The Nuggets could make life tough for an older LA Lakers squad, especially with their fast style of play and the altitude of Denver. The Lakers are also playing the second of back to back nights play and they earned a big win in Dallas yesterday, but could be focused on getting back to the Staples Center after this one and playing 'weaker' teams than the Nuggets.

Denver are 7-3 against the spread at home against the Lakers and I think they can extend their recent good run against the Lakers in this one.



February 26th
Golden State Warriors @ Indiana Pacers Pick: I like the Indiana Pacers in this one to continue their recent good form and also continue their recent domination of the Golden State Warriors.

While the Warriors can score a lot of points, Indiana have one of the best defenses in the NBA and I expect that defense to be the reason they are able to cover in this one.


Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat Pick: The Miami Heat have been playing exceptionally and recovered from the scare that the Cleveland Cavaliers gave them to record their 11th straight win.

They have dominated the Sacramento Kings in recent meetings and I expect that to continue against a team that has shown signs of form, but too often fail to get things going on the road. The Kings have lost 8 in a row on the road and have been beaten by an average of 16.2 points per game in that run, while they have lost 8 in a row to the Heat by 19.5 points per game.

Miami should be able to take care of this big spread with a few days rest between this game and their next game against the Memphis Grizzlies.


Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: While the Orlando Magic are short-handed for this game, the Philadelphia 76ers continue to play without Andrew Bynum, although a returning Thaddeus Young gives them some more scoring power to add to Jrue Holiday and Evan Turner.

Philadelphia crushed Orlando here earlier this season and I think their motivation will be high to get a win and close the gap to the Eastern Conference Play Offs. It is a big spread, but the Magic are missing some big pieces and it hard to see them keeping this one close.


February 27th
Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: It seems almost certain that Cleveland will be missing Kyrie Irving for a second game in a row and that should be enough for the Toronto Raptors to continue their winning run on the road since Rudy Gay was traded from Memphis.

It is also a tough spot for Cleveland as they put in a big emotional effort against Chicago last night to win that game without Irving. There is also a chance that Cleveland could overlook Toronto as they have just played Chicago and then host some tough opponents like the LA Clippers and New York Knicks.


New Orleans Hornets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The New Orleans Hornets will be short-handed for this one with both Eric Gordon and Anthony Davis missing out and that leads me to think the Oklahoma City Thunder will be an easier winner in this contest than they have the more recent times they have hosted New Orleans.

Oklahoma City have dominated Western Conference teams at home with 17 straight wins here and they have too much Offense for the short-handed Hornets in my opinion. It is a big spread, but I like the Thunder to dominate and cover.


February 28th
LA Clippers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: Roy Hibbert is suspended for this game after his part in the mass brawl between the Pacers and the Golden State Warriors a couple of nights ago, and that is a big body to lose against Lob City.

This is a big game for both teams who will have serious Championship aspirations and both will want to prove themselves. Both should be focused on one another, but I have a feeling the Clippers are in the slightly better spot.

The absence of Hibbert and Danny Granger still working his way back to full game fitness means I think it could be tough for the Pacers. The Clippers have been hot and they do look capable of winning their first game here in Indiana since 2008.


MY PICKS: 23/02 Houston Rockets - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
23/02 Miami Heat - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
23/02 Indiana Pacers - 4 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
25/02 Atlanta Hawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/02 Denver Nuggers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
26/02 Indiana Pacers - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
26/02 Miami Heat - 15 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
26/02 Philadelphia 76ers - 9.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/02 Toronto Raptors - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/02 Oklahoma City Thunder - 14.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
28/02 LA Clippers + 1 Point @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


February Update: 6-3, + 2.61 Units

January Final5-14, - 9.31 Units
December Final17-7-1, + 9.19 Units
November Final13-8-1, + 8.03 Units

Season 201335-29-2, + 7.91 Units
Season 201279-53-1, + 27.48 Units

Tuesday, 1 January 2013

NBA Picks January 2013

The first two months of the season have seen some familiar things, for example the San Antonio Spurs/Miami Heat/Oklahoma City Thunder being amongst the leading teams in their respective Conferences.

We have also seen the regularly slow-starting Boston Celtics, while Los Angeles seems to have flipped on its head with the Clippers looking dominant and the Lakers struggling to get things going. The last month will at least seen some positives for the Lakers as they have finally begun to look like the team they were expected to be in the off-season and they are beginning to move up the Western Conference standings.

The biggest disappointments so far have to be the Philadelphia 76ers and the Dallas Mavericks as injuries have taken their toll on their squads and both are going to be in a fight to make the Play Offs if they don't produce a better January.

We are still some six weeks until the All-Star Game, a game that represents a turning point for some of the better teams as they start getting themselves into Play Off mode, but this is still an important time for the not so good teams to at least get some momentum and keep wins ticking along. No one wants to put themselves in a position where they need long winning streaks in March and April to make the Play Offs.


January 1st
Philadelphia 76ers @ LA Lakers Pick: I think this is a good spot for the LA Lakers to finally get back above 0.500 as they can fully focus on the game with a couple of rest days coming up before a 5 game run against some of the best teams in the Western Conference.

The Lakers are on a 6-1 run and they are playing a Philadelphia team that have lost 8 of their last 9 on the road and who have to be a little weary during their current long road trip.

There seems to be too much scoring power in the Lakers Offense at the moment to think the 76ers will be able to contain them in my opinion.


January 2nd
New Orleans Hornets @ Houston Rockets Pick: The New Orleans Hornets put in a big effort last night before coming up short against the Atlanta Hawks and they have struggled in this spot previously. In fact, the Hornets are just 2-6 straight up in the second of back to back nights play and they have lost their last 3 against the spread.

Houston continue to churn out a lot of points in recent games and that makes me believe they will be too good for the Hornets and will be able to pull away in this game.

The spot is a good one for the Rockets who have been as productive at home as the Hornets have been poor on the road.


Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: I backed against the Brooklyn Nets when they travelled to face one of the Western Conference powerhouses on New Year's Eve and they didn't show anything in that game to prevent me from backing the Oklahoma City Thunder in this one.

The Thunder are off a couple of blow out wins and I think there is every chance the Nets are just looking forward to getting back to the East where they will travel to face Washington and then host Sacramento, two much more winnable contests for them.

Oklahoma City look like a team with too much scoring power and while it won't be the 30 point beating the Nets took from San Antonio, I do like the Thunder to cover.


January 7th
Boston Celtics @ New York Knicks Pick: Being a Knicks fans means it can be hard to let my head rule my heart, but giving up 6 points to Boston who have the clear edge at Point Guard looks too much for me.

Boston have just picked up a couple of positive results in their last couple of games and they have a good record at Madison Square Garden. I think the Celtics will give New York a hard time, particularly with Avery Bradley giving them more defensive energy, and they should be able to keep this close.


San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Hornets Pick: The Spurs have beaten the Hornets twice this season, but only by a combined 9 points yet I do like them to win this one and cover the spread.

New Orleans struggle to score points Offensively and I think San Antonio have enough depth to out-score this Hornets team. It also seems a better spot for San Antonio as they face a team that put in a huge effort to eventually knock off the Dallas Mavericks last time out. The Spurs also have a couple of days to spare before they meet the LA Lakers.

I just see too much scoring from the Spurs against a New Orleans averaging 91.7 points per game.


January 8th
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The Miami Heat are probably not going to really pick up the pace until after the All Star Game next month, but they should be fully motivated in this one against the Indiana Pacers.

We saw how chippy the Play Off series between these sides was and I think the Heat are too athletic for the Pacers. The penetration that LeBron and Wade can get should open up the three point range and as long as Miami concentrate defensively, I think they cover this spread, although it could be close throughout.


January 9th
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls Pick: I am backing the Chicago Bulls in this game as they are well matched against the Bucks and I do think they will get a measure of respect back after blowing a 27 point lead in their loss against Milwaukee most recently.

Chicago have opened up 2013 in good form, winning at Miami, while Milwaukee have an awful record when playing on the second of back to back nights play.

Tiredness could set in for the Bucks as the game goes on and I think the Bulls will do enough to cover the 5.5 points.


January 22nd
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I have taken another couple of weeks off from the NBA picks as it was a tough start to the month and I felt I wasn't capping things correctly.

I am back with a couple of picks today, the first being the Detroit Pistons to cover the spread against the Orlando Magic. Both of these teams have losing records, but momentum is certainly with the Pistons and I think they can roll to another win on their home court and progress beyond 0.500 that they are at the Palace of Auburn Hills.

Confidence is higher in the Pistons locker room I would feel, and Orlando could easily be looking to getting back home where they host Toronto and Detroit in the coming week. With the Pistons moving on to face Chicago and Miami, they should be focused on picking up a win here to build on their recent run ahead of facing two of the better teams in the East.


Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: Firing Scott Skiles seems to have fired up the Milwaukee Bucks and I think they are in a good spot to cover the spread against an under-achieving Philadelphia squad.

The 76ers put in a huge effort at San Antonio yesterday and they have lost their last 7 games when playing the second of back to back nights scheduled, losing those games by 13 points per game.

Milwaukee have been playing inspired basketball under Jim Boylan and they are scoring plenty of points- neither side has another game scheduled until later in the week so should fully concentrate on this one... The difference may be the fatigue, both mental and physical, that Philadelphia could be suffering from their efforts last night and so I like the Bucks to cover.


January 23rd
LA Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: It's been a pretty crappy season for the LA Lakers and it may just get a little worse before it gets better for them as they visit the tough Memphis Grizzlies.

Memphis have struggled Offensively, failing to exceed 85 points in 6 consecutive games, but they are facing a team in disarray and have a real chance to put a marker down for their ambitions in the Western Conference.

The Lakers are completing a road trip here before heading back to the Staples Center and they may just be looking ahead to that time where they can rediscover some semblance of form. Instead, I'll take the Grizzlies to extend their road woes with a win and a cover.


January 24th
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Pick: I am taking the awful Orlando Magic in this one, because the spot looks a good one for the team as they are facing Toronto off a couple of big performances against the LA Lakers and the Miami Heat.

Toronto beat the Lakers and then took the Heat to Overtime last night and there is little doubt that they could be flat in this one against an opponent they won't really care about. The Raptors also return to Canada after this one.

Orlando have been terrible Defensively in their last 14 games so it is a risky proposition, but it looks an appealing spot to ignore.



January 25th
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks look the better team in this one and Cleveland could have a slight letdown following a good win over the Boston Celtics.

The Bucks have the back court duo of Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis that could win the battle with Kyrie Irving and that could prove to be the difference. Milwaukee have also dominated the recent series between the teams and look worth backing to cover the spread.


Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Hornets Pick: Both teams have been struggling Defensively while proving more than capable of performing Offensively and that should lead to a high-scoring game between them in this one.

New Orleans are looking to improve Defensively, but that won't be easy against this Houston team that is very productive through James Harden. There is every chance both teams score triple digits in this one and that should lead to the total points being surpassed.


Utah Jazz @ LA Lakers Pick: I like the Utah Jazz to at least keep this game close as the LA Lakers are still trying to get on the same page with one another after yet another 4 game losing streak.

Rumours are that Dwight Howard and Kobe Bryant got into some sort of altercation in a team meeting on Wednesday and the All-Star Center is set to miss this game after re-injuring a shoulder in the loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.

The Jazz have also won the last 4 in the series between the teams, including 3 of their last 4 at the Staples Center. There is every chance they can become the latest team to expose the poor Defensive schemes used by the Lakers and keep this close at the very least.


January 27th
Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Pick: Miami are definitely playing the better basketball of the two teams at the moment, but that form can go out of the window as this rivalry will inspire Boston to up their own game.

However, the Heat have the added motivation of performing at a high level for Ray Allen, who will be making his first return to Boston since leaving in the off-season, and we have seen how Miami reacted to LeBron James' first game back at Cleveland.

I would not at all be surprised if Allen sinks a couple of big threes to ice the game late on and I like the a motivated Heat in this one.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Lakers Pick: Oklahoma City have looked a little weary as their 6 game road trip comes to an end at the Staples Center, but they have dominated the LA Lakers in recent games in the series and I think they carry that on here.

I know the Lakers looked better in their win against Utah, but this is the team with the best record in the NBA that they are facing and I think their defensive schemes will be pushed to the extremes.

This game is arguably more important for Oklahoma City to prove to the NBA that they are the real deal in the Western Conference and I think the win and cover.


New Orleans Hornets @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies have picked up some real momentum in recent games and they have found their Offensive groove, which doesn't bode well for teams taking on one of the better Defensive teams in the NBA.

With that momentum, the Grizzlies should take care of the New Orleans Hornets who have come off the boil following 7 wins from 9 games and they struggled to score points against Houston last time out.

Memphis have dominated the recent series and should be able to win the game and cover the spread.


January 28th
Indiana Pacers @ Denver Nuggets Pick: I've had a terrible week, but hoping the next two picks will turn things around when it comes to the basketball picks.

I like the Denver Nuggets to cover in this game against Indiana as the Pacers are concluding a four game Western Conference road trip and may be focusing on heading back home.

It is already tough to play at the Pepsi Center against this Denver team that has plenty of Offense and that could be the difference again.


Houston Rockets @ Utah Jazz Pick: I do like the way the Houston Rockets play, but this is a really tough road game for them against the Utah Jazz and I believe the home team will have a little too much and win the game and cover the spread.

The status of Gordon Hayward is a concern for the home team, but they have been very solid in front of their own fans all season, while Houston have recently come off a long losing run and may not be quite ready to win here.

There could be a lot of Play Off implications resting on which of these teams wins the season series, which stands at 1-1 at the moment, but Utah have been solid when hosting Houston in recent games and should be a little too good again.


No more picks this month after a terrible run of form, although my frustrations just boiled over after watching the way Denver screwed the pick... Andre Iguodala decides easy lay ups are no longer for him as the Nuggets are outscored 19-6 in final 6 minutes. It wasn't just the fact he missed easy buckets, he then misses all FOUR free throws only to then score his one free throw with 0.4 seconds left to win the game.

I feel I have lost my edge a little this last week and I am not entirely sure why, although teams blowing big leads have just about got the better of me (Denver and Milwaukee just two off the top of my head that had double digit leads by the middle of the third quarter and won by 1 and lost by 3 respectively).

Some of the picks felt and looked right, but the players failed to perform (how did the Heat lose to Rondo-less Boston and Oklahoma City lose to the terrible LA Lakers?)

The season has still been positive but this last week makes me think it is time to take a break and just follow the games before getting back involved. Will be back probably just the week prior to the All-Star game for February picks.


MY PICKS: 01/01 LA Lakers - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
02/01 Houston Rockets - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
02/01 Oklahoma City Thunder - 9.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
07/01 Boston Celtics + 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
07/01 San Antonio Spurs - 8 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
08/01 Miami Heat - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
09/01 Chicago Bulls - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/01 Detroit Pistons - 5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
22/01 Milwaukee Bucks - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
23/01 Memphis Grizzlies - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
24/01 Orlando Magic - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/01 Milwaukee Bucks - 4 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/01 New Orleans Hornets-Houston Rockets Over 200.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/01 Utah Jazz + 5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/01 Miami Heat - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
27/01 Oklahoma City Thunder - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
27/01 Memphis Grizzlies - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/01 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/01 Utah Jazz - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)



January Update: 5-14, - 9.31 Units

December Final17-7-1, + 9.19 Units
November Final13-8-1, + 8.03 Units

Season 201330-15-2, + 17.22 Units
Season 201279-53-1, + 27.48 Units

Tuesday, 11 December 2012

NBA Picks December 2012

The first month of the NBA season went pretty well, although I have kept my powder dry in the last three weeks as I was just hitting a poor run of form and decided it was better to take a watching brief rather than going 'chasing'.

It has been a very interesting start to the new season, particularly for a New York Knicks fan as myself with the team currently having the best record in the Eastern Conference and already knocked off Miami twice this season, once without Carmelo Anthony.

The Heat have actually been a little lethargic at times to open the season with the knowledge that they can likely beat 85% of the teams in the NBA with a little burst of quality and they have sleep-walked through the majority of games and are doing just enough to win.

However, they are at least winning, while the LA Lakers have made a horrible start to the new season. Injuries are hurting them and exposing a roster that doesn't have a lot of depth and I think they will likely go through more teething problems before things settle down. I still think the Lakers will make the Play Offs, but they don't look the team to beat in the Western Conference... That remains the Oklahoma City Thunder who have suffered no noticeable hangover from losing in the NBA Finals last June and the fact that they have lost James Harden just days before the new season began.

This is still very early in the new season and the NBA is currently playing second fiddle to the NFL and the season won't settle down into a real shape until the new calender year.


December 11th
New York Knicks @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The New York Knicks may have the best record in the Eastern Conference at this early stage of the new season, but one result that would have grated on the management and the fans would have been the loss to the Brooklyn Nets earlier in the season.

The chance for redemption is high in this one for the Knicks as they are playing the better basketball of the two teams. I also think the Knicks will not be overlooking this game for the visit of the LA Lakers on Thursday night and they have won 3 of their last 4 road games since the loss in Brooklyn.

The Nets have just been off in recent games with 3 consecutive home losses, and I just think the scoring power of the Knicks carries them over in this one and level the season series at 1-1.


December 12th
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz Pick: The San Antonio Spurs are once again one of the hotter regular season teams a year after finishing with the Number 1 seed in the Western Conference and I think they will be too strong for the Utah Jazz in what is traditionally a difficult road game for teams.

However, the Spurs have won 3 of their last 4 games here in Utah and they have been scoring a lot of points coming into this one. Greg Popovich also seems to get the best out of his team when they are due to play on back to back nights, going 19-1 straight up in the first of those games, including winning 10 in a row.


San Antonio are 8-2 against the spread in that 10 game winning run and I think they improve that here.


December 14th
Both of the previous games I went with were a couple rolls of the ball away from being winners, but instead I got a push and a loser so decided to take off yesterday with the small choices I had.

Golden State Warriors @ Orlando Magic Pick: I like the Orlando Magic in the underdog role to keep this game close, even though they have been inconsistent all season.

However, I like the idea that Golden State Warriors could be on an emotional letdown spot following their shocking win over the Miami Heat a couple of nights ago. The Warriors have been very good this season, but it could be tough for them to keep their level up against a much weaker team than Miami.

Golden State have won 5 games in a row, but the last team to beat them was Orlando on the West Coast. The Warriors also have a shocking 1-10 run in the first of back to back nights play while Orlando are 7-4 in that same situation.


Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder seemed to be even more focused to right the wrongs of losing in the NBA Finals last season and are not missing James Harden nor suffering from any hangover from their defeat to the Miami Heat.

They have won 9 straight games, going 7-2 against the spread, and they have three days before they have to play again so they can focus completely on this game. The close win over the New Orleans Hornets will have focused them more and I think they take that out on the Kings.

Sacramento have been beaten comfortably in their last 2 games and I think the Thunder have too much scoring power for them. This is the last of a four game road trip and they may just be looking forward to playing at home and could be beaten with a bit of ease in this one.



Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets Pick: Denver are one of the best home teams in the NBA so I was a little surprised that they are only giving up 1.5 points in this one against a Memphis Grizzlies team that has lost 3 of their last 5 games in a very promising start to the season.

Much of Memphis' promising start has come from their games at home and although they have won at Oklahoma City, defeats at San Antonio and the LA Clippers suggests this will be another tough ask for them.

Denver did lose their last home game against the Grizzlies, but are 18-2 straight up against them in the last 20 times they have hosted them, while also being 13-7 against the spread so I'll back them here.


December 15th
LA Clippers @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The LA Clippers are the best team in Los Angeles and it has been a long time since people could say that... They have been in very good form and the additional rest they have before this game should stand them in good stead for this one.

The Clippers have been playing very effectively defensively and I think they can make enough stops to let their Offense take over this game. The Bucks played last night and they are just 1-6-1 against the spread in their last 8 games when playing the second of back to back nights play.

LA have not played well here in Milwaukee in recent games, but I think the Clippers have enough on both sides of the court to think they change that here.


December 20th
Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: The Miami Heat continue to sleep-walk through games at times this season, but they should be focused to play the short-handed Dallas Mavericks after losing the NBA Finals in 2011 to this team.

The Heat have beaten Dallas in the two games since those Finals, but the Mavericks are definitely a better team at home than they are on the road so it won't be easy. However, the spot looks a good one for the Heat to have a statement win on national TV and I think they cover the spread.


December 22nd
Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat Pick: The Miami Heat are in a good spot here as they managed to rest their starters in the blow out of the Dallas Mavericks and have a few days to prepare for their next game against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Miami have been playing better defensively and I think they make life tough for Utah in this one, a team that may be looking forward to ending their Eastern road trip and heading back home.

Utah are also just 2-9 in their last 11 games when playing the first of back to back games and they are just 1-9-1 against the spread in those games.

LA Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The spread shows how close the layers think this game will be, although I am of the belief that the Golden State Warriors will be a little too good for the LA Lakers and win the game.

However, instead I am going to back the over 208.5 total points in this one- the over is 6-3 in the last 9 at Golden State between these teams and both have been scoring plenty of points but also struggling in defensive situations.

I am expecting both sides to crack the 105 point mark to see this one go over the total points.


December 23rd
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New York Knicks Pick: I like the New York Knicks to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves who will be missing Kevin Love in this game.

The Knicks have been very strong at the Garden and I think the Minnesota team could be a little flat after snapping the Oklahoma City Thunder winning streak. This is also a road game between home games and I think New York's scoring power will be too much to overcome.


December 25th
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: I am taking a couple of underdogs to give themselves Christmas cheer in the NBA, starting with the Boston Celtics as they visit Brooklyn to take on the Nets.

Boston should be fired up after getting into a series of pushing matches with the Nets in their last meeting, one which saw Rajon Rondo ejected and then suspended. This veteran squad is also looking to avoid their longest losing run on the road since 2007.

I also don't trust Brooklyn who have struggled in the role of favourites and who are struggling to put teams away with consistency.


New York Knicks @ LA Lakers Pick: I am also backing my favourite team, the New York Knicks to at least push the LA Lakers in this game.

Carmelo Anthony will likely have a big game to 'impress' former Knicks coach Mike D'Antoni and I also think there is more chemistry in the New York team at this moment in time. Granted, the Lakers have won 4 in a row, but they could easily have lost the last 2 games and I think the Knicks impose their slower tempo on proceedings while also being able to deal with the Lakers Offense having seen it for some time in New York.

I would be surprised if this isn't close until the final buzzer so the points look healthy.


Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls: One of the hottest teams in the NBA at the moment, the Houston Rockets look like they are being given a lot of points in this one and I think the highest scoring team in the League keeps it close against one of the premier Defenses in the Chicago Bulls.

Chicago have been playing well despite laying an egg in the blow out loss at Atlanta, but that was a bad emotional spot for them. I think they will put in a huge effort in this one, but Houston are scoring too many points to be given this head start and I'll take them to cover.


December 26th
Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I like the home team's chances of covering the spread in this one as I think the personnel, particularly Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis, do provide a match up problem for the Brooklyn Nets' best players in Deron Williams and Joe Johnson.

Brooklyn also took a bit of a beat down mentally from the Boston Celtics and have been awful against Milwaukee recently. In fact, they have lost 12 in a row in the series with 6 defeats in a row when they have visited the Bucks.

All of those 6 wins have come by at least double-digits and I think Milwaukee are too good for them here.


Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: This is a terrible spot for the Houston Rockets as the game is sandwiched between the Christmas Day game at Chicago and the visit to the San Antonio Spurs, but 5.5 points head start does look a touch high.

Houston are playing with a lot of momentum and they have the scoring power to at least keep this game close. They also have a decent record at Minnesota, despite losing their last game here, and I think the youthful nature of the Rockets team will be enough to see them through this one.

Hopefully the Rockets realise that beating a potential rival for a Play Off berth is enough to concentrate their minds between much more 'glamourous' games.


December 27th
Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Dallas have been struggling all season and they are the kind of team that seems to drop their heads when they fall behind. That could be exposed by a powerful Offense like the Oklahoma City Thunder who will be looking to get back to winning ways.

The Thunder were involved in another loss to the Miami Heat on Christmas Day, but they have been very good at home and will be looking for their 11th win. I just think they have more chances to get things going in this one and I like their chances of covering this double-digit spread.


December 28th
Miami Heat @ Detroit Pistons Pick: I just feel the absence of Dwyane Wade and Ray Allen will inspire LeBron James to take the Miami Heat on his back and he will help them continue their recent dominance of the Detroit Pistons.

The Heat are playing as well as anybody in the NBA at the moment and they will want to prove they can get things going on the road and win their 3rd in a row on their travels. The spread looks a reasonable one for them to cover, even on the road.

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Atlanta Hawks should be able to win their 4th straight at Cleveland in this one as they should have a big edge when it comes to the Center spot, while Josh Smith looked very comfortable in their win over the Detroit Pistons.

The Hawks should be a little more focused on the road against one of the poorer teams in the Eastern Conference than they were against Detroit and they will want to put the record straight after losing at home against Cleveland earlier this season.

Denver Nuggets @ Dallas Mavericks Pick: This looks the perfect emotional let down spot for the Dallas Mavericks who should have beaten the Oklahoma City Thunder last night and now play a team that had won 3 straight at the American Airlines Center before their last meeting here.

Denver should be much more confident from their beating of the LA Lakers in their last gmae and I just feel the Nuggets will be able to bring that in here and maybe take advantage of a tired Dallas team.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The Golden State Warriors look like a team that will have too much scoring power for the Philadelphia 76ers, a team that may be over-rated from their one win over Memphis in their last game.

The 76ers have not been great on the road this season and could be short-handed which leaves me favouring the home side to cover.


December 29th
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets Pick: I just think this is a tough spot for the Houston Rockets who are playing their fourth game in five days and they are just off a tough loss at the San Antonio Spurs last night.

Oklahoma City haven't been playing that well, but they have players that can expose a Rockets Defense that allows a lot of points and they may just have enough to cover the spread.


December 31st
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic Pick: I like the chances of the Miami Heat to turn around their recent road defeats in this one as they face a short-handed Orlando Magic team that are struggling to keep up with their opponents.

Orlando will make it a fight as this is an in-State rivalry, but there is too much in this Heat team to continue performing badly on the road and I like them to cover the big spread.


Atlanta Hawks @ Houston Rockets Pick: Both of these teams are capable of putting up big points and I think this will certainly be a high-scoring game.

However, I like the Houston Rockets to cover as I think the Atlanta team have played a lot of basketball while being short-handed and they have regularly struggled in visits to this part of Texas.


Brooklyn Nets @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The Spurs have been playing as good basketball as anyone at the moment and I think they are too experienced for a Brooklyn Nets team that has struggled to find an identity.

The Spurs have dominated the Nets in recent games in the series and I think they get away from them in this one too.


MY PICKS: 11/12 New York Knicks - 3 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
12/12 San Antonio Spurs - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/12 Orlando Magic + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
14/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 13 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
14/12 Denver Nuggets - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
15/12 LA Clippers - 4 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
20/12 Miami Heat - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/12 Miami Heat - 9 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
22/12 Golden State Warriors-LA Lakers Over 208.5 Total Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
23/12 New York Knicks - 8.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/12 Boston Celtics + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/12 New York Knicks + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
25/12 Houston Rockets + 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
26/12 Milwaukee Bucks - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
26/12 Houston Rockets + 5.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
27/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/12 Miami Heat - 6 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
28/12 Atlanta Hawks - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
28/12 Denver Nuggets - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
28/12 Golden State Warriors - 6 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
29/12 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
30/12 San Antonio Spurs - 6 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/12 Miami Heat - 10 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
31/12 Houston Rockets - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
31/12 San Antonio Spurs - 9 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


December Update: 17-7-1, + 9.19 Units


November Final13-8-1, + 8.03 Units

Season 2013: 13-8-1, + 8.03 Units
Season 201279-53-1, + 27.48 Units

Friday, 17 August 2012

Weekend Football Picks (August 18-20)

The new season will be beginning this weekend, even though it only feels like yesterday that the last one ended.

As always, I will post my picks on here over the next couple of days.

You can read my breakdown of the Premier League and the individual clubs here

I also have a full view on Manchester United, my club, that can be read here


Fulham v Norwich City Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14648-Fulham-v-Norwich-City.htm)

Queens Park Rangers v Swansea Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14650-QPR-v-Swansea.htm)

Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14652-Newcastle-United-v-Tottenham-Hotspur.htm)

West Ham United v Aston Villa Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14660-West-Ham-United-v-Aston-Villa.htm)

Ipswich Town v Blackburn Rovers Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14669-Ipswich-Town-v-Blackburn-Rovers.htm)

Manchester City v Southampton Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14677-Manchester-City-v-Southampton.htm)

Everton v Manchester United Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14686-Everton-v-Manchester-United.htm)


MY PICKS: Fulham @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Queens Park Rangers @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Newcastle United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
West Ham United-Aston Villa Draw @ 3.50 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ipswich Town-Blackburn Rovers Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester City Over 2.5 Team Goals @ 1.92 Coral (4 Units)
Everton-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Thursday, 16 August 2012

Premier League 2012-13 Preview

The London Olympics have come and gone and we are now just days away from the beginning of the Premier League football season, the start of nine months of ups and downs, excitement and disappointment and the ultimate roller-coaster for the fans of the individual clubs.

Speaking about the Olympics, I have been a little perturbed by the number of articles that have been written in the media comparing the 'good aspects' of the Games with all the 'bad aspects' of football- personally I think that is a little harsh as there isn't the same sort of pressure on the athletes of the Games outside of their sport as there is on footballers who have every aspect of their lives dissected for public consumption.

The bottom line is that people want to know everything about these footballers, while many of the athletes at the Olympic Games are 'forgotten' in the four year periods between Games, while I also heard an excellent point on the radio explaining how so few are willing to put up someone like Justin Gatlin and compare him with a Paul Scholes and actually show football in a positive light.

Others have bemoaned the behaviour of the football fan at matches- yes, some do take it too far in what they believe is 'banter', while some of the cruder chants are not necessary, but people invest a lot of time and money in their clubs and frustration can boil over which will lead to exclamations laced with some profanity.

I don't think as many people invest that same kind of interest in any of the events at the Olympics, so the crowds generated at such events are vastly different compared with a regular season football match.

Issues about behaviour on the field have been there for some time, but that will only be weeded out by bringing it in at youth level and gradually changing things, so complaining about it seems a little pointless to me.

All in all, I can't wait for the new season and a chance to watch all the drama unfolding over the next few months and below I will break down the Premier League into sections and look at all the contenders in this new season.


Winner and Champions League Places
Manchester City: The reigning Premier League Champions are the favourites to retain their title in the coming season and I do think they are the team to beat in the coming season.

It is a surprise that they haven't invested too much in the playing squad this Summer with Jack Rodwell the only major incoming signing, but I do believe the UEFA Financial Fair Play Rules may just have them a little worried. However, the fact they have Carlos Tevez back for the full season (barring any refusals to warm up as a substitute in the coming months) is a big boost to an already very productive forward line, while the spine of the side looks very good from Joe Hart through Vincent Kompany through Yaya Toure, David Silva and Sergio Aguero.

There has to be a slight concern of the understudy, Stefan Savic, to the first choice centre halves, but the attacking options at Roberto Mancini's disposal looks set to fire them to another title, while I also believe they have the best midfield in the League which will allow them to dictate more matches than their rivals can at this moment.


Manchester United: It was a heartbreaking end to the 2011-12 season for Manchester United as they suffered a kick in the teeth that they have delivered to so many others in the last 20 years. The League should never have slipped from their grasp after taking an 8 point lead in the title race with just 6 games to play, and it is clear that this is the priority this season.

Shinki Kagawa is the big Summer signing (as I write this), but there remains a lot of off-field turmoil as the fans continue to make their feelings about the owners very clear. The lack of investment remains in the middle of the park remains a real issue and they have to hope that both Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs do not show their age as 'father time' can quickly catch up with you.

However, they still look good enough to compete in the Premier League with the personnel they have, and Nemanja Vidic's return is huge considering it was goal difference that cost them the title last season. 

'If Robin Van Persie can be signed from Arsenal, Manchester United may have enough in them to take the title back from their 'noisy neighbours' with the potential for extra goals and their leader in defence back in action'- this is what I wrote before it was announced that United had agreed a deal with Arsenal, and I now believe United can nick the title back as long as Rooney and Van Persie are compatible and not the second coming of the Didier Drogba-Fernando Torres issues.

My full views on Manchester United can be found here


Chelsea: After winning the Champions League in dramatic fashion, Chelsea have been on a spending spree this Summer, bringing in the likes of Eden Hazard (who was much sought after), Marko Marin and Oscar as Roberto Di Matteo looks to freshen up what was an ageing squad.

It will take time for some of these players to settle into the pace of the Premier League and there could be an issue of consistency in their play, although the younger legs will see a changing of the guard in the first team.

Even with those new signings bringing excitement to Stamford Bridge, it has to be a little concerning that Di Matteo has made it clear that he will not change tact from the 'negative' tactics he used to win the Champions League and the FA Cup- it took a lot of luck to do so last season and we have seen previously, Rafa Benitez being a notable example, that it doesn't work over a 38 game League season.

Losing Didier Drogba is also a big blow to this side, particularly if Fernando Torres cannot turn back the clock to his 2009 form and I still have a few issues about a defence that doesn't have a lot of depth if injuries take their toll.

Getting back into a top four spot will be the priority for the Blues this season and I think that is the best they can hope for as I still think there is a significant gap between themselves and the top two sides.


Arsenal: The Gunners finished 19 points behind the top two teams last season and they remain a side that is always liable to losing some of their better players as they become disillusioned with the lack of silverware picked up over the last few seasons.

There continues to be rumours surrounding the future of Robin Van Persie, a player that has made it clear he will not be extending his time at the Emirates Stadium and one that could be on his way to Old Trafford before the transfer window closes.

The Dutchman was so influential last season in terms of the goals he was getting and I don't think Lukas Podolski or Olivier Giroud have the same consistency in front of goal that Van Persie displayed last season.

If Van Persie leaves the club, Arsenal's place in the top four could be under significant threat from their local rivals Tottenham Hotspur. Barcelona also continue to sniff around Alex Song, who would be another major loss for Arsene Wenger, while Jack Wilshire is not due back until October at the earliest having missed all of last season.

A few of the issues at the Emirates Stadium were covered by the form of Van Persie last season, and I think they could have trouble holding onto a top four place if their talisman is sold in this transfer window, something which is probably playing a big part in them playing hard ball with potential suitors.

All of the Arsenal write-up was written before the Robin Van Persie sale to Manchester United had been confirmed and I think the Gunners are now in for a tough season in holding on to a top four spot.


Tottenham Hotspur: It was a surprising turn of events that saw Harry Redknapp removed as manager of Tottenham Hotspur in the off-season and he was replaced by Andre Villa-Boas who is looking to restore his damaged reputation following his time as manager of Chelsea last season.

Spurs look to have retained the services of Luka Modric after he once again asked to leave the club, the second Summer in succession he has done so, although the loss of Emmanuel Adebayor (returned to Manchester City after his loan) and failure to sign a striker leaves them looking a little light up front as far as I am concerned.

The defence has been improved with the signing of Jan Vertonghen, but they do look a weaker side than last season because of the forward situation and I am sure that is an area they will look to rectify before the transfer window is slammed shut.

Tottenham will not be in the Champions League thanks to Chelsea winning that competition last season, but they will think they can push Arsenal if the latter loses Robin Van Persie. Spurs will need to find another option up front if they are to push enough to stay in the top four this season and get a chance to get back into the Champions League.

Luka Modric has been sold to Real Madrid since I wrote this and he will be a big loss- there is a lot of pressure on Gylfi Sigurdsson to make a seamless entry into this midfield and the team do look a notch or two weaker than last season in the attacking areas of the pitch.


European Places

Liverpool: Despite winning the Carling Cup and reaching the Final of the FA Cup, it was largely a disappointing season for Liverpool that had made large investments over the previous six months in order to get into the coveted Champions League places.

The poor second half of the season cost Kenny Dalglish his job and it was later admitted that even winning the FA Cup would not have been enough to prevent that from happening. Now they hand the reigns over to Brendan Rodgers who enjoyed success at Swansea, but who is now going to have to prove himself all over again.

It is clear that the players are going to have to work in a new system, one that has seen Andy Carroll shopped around the League as the 35 million pound man looks surplus to requirements after going through a tough period on Merseyside.

Fabio Borini and Joe Allen, two players Rodgers is familiar with, have been brought into the club, but there hasn't been the same level of investment as last Summer (although they continue to be linked with a number of players in the press). Lucas has returned from a major injury, but a European place looks the limit of their potential this season as they get used to a new voice in the dressing room.

A Cup run would show they are going the right way, but more consistency in their League form is what the owners demand this season.


Everton: I was very surprised to see David Moyes was overlooked for the Tottenham Hotspur job in the Summer and it looks like there is a glass ceiling above him as the 'bigger clubs' feel he is inexperienced at the highest level, but yet no one is willing to give him a chance to prove himself.

Moyes led Everton to a top 7 finish last season and that is something I feel they can achieve again and perhaps even finish above their local rivals Liverpool. They surprisingly let Tim Cahill go in the Summer, although he isn't the same player from a couple of years ago, and the permanent signing of Steven Pienaar looks an upgrade.

Steven Naismith has been brought in from the now defunct Rangers and he should blend well with his former partner in Scotland, Nikica Jelavic, who has made a big impact in English football since joining Everton in January.

The sale of Jack Rodwell for 15 million pounds to Manchester City may mean Moyes is going to reinvest in the playing squad, but the team will need to steer clear of injuries if they are to make a concerted effort to move up from 7th that they finished last season and I think finishing above Liverpool would be seen as a successful season.

David Moyes will be looking to win his first piece of silverware since taking over as manager here.


Newcastle United: It was a great season for Newcastle United last year, one that fell a little short of getting the team into a Champions League spot and I am a little unsure they are going to be able to repeat their form to finish as high again this season.

Things just seemed to click for Newcastle last season with the signings of Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse providing a number of goals (it seems that as soon as Ba stopped scoring, Cisse was signed and took over). However, both have now been exposed to the Premier League managers and may find it difficult to repeat their individual successes, which in turn may affect the success of the whole team.

Alan Pardew has not brought in a lot of new faces to the club and I think their surprise element is gone and may see them slip down a few places from the 5th placed finish from last season. They still have enough good players to finish in the top half of the table, but they over-achieved last year and a Cup run may be their best chance of getting back into Europe.



A Top Half Finish?

Fulham: Martin Jol had a decent first season in charge of Fulham and he would have continued to make a lot of friends with his brand of attacking football. He has done well so far in keeping hold of Clint Dempsey and Moussa Dembele, two players that have been linked with Liverpool and Manchester United respectively, and they pose plenty of problems for other sides in the League along with Bryan Ruiz and new signing Hugo Rodallega.

They couldn't conclude a deal for Pavel Pogrebnyak, who has since signed with Reading, but they remain a solid looking eleven that could match their finish of 9th from last season as long as they can keep the team together before the transfer window closes and steer clear of injuries.

Much will also depend on their form at Craven Cottage where they regularly give the 'bigger' sides plenty of problems, especially considering their 10 losses on their travels last season and Fulham have annually struggled for wins away from home.

Still, in this Premier League, I like Fulham's chances for a top half finish.


Stoke City: I have noticed that a lot of people are tipping Stoke City to be the surprise struggling team this season, with some going so far as predicting relegation for the Potters, but I am not of that belief.

They have some downward indicators flashing considering their poor end to last season, but I believe that was down to an extended run in all of the Cup competitions that caught up with a relatively thin squad.

Stoke remain a real tough prospect at the Brittania Stadium, where they lost just 4 games last season, and they also picked up 3 more wins away from home than they had in the previous season.

Tony Pulis has a solid XI that he sends out for matches and has goals in the team through Peter Crouch and Jon Walters and I think they could be pushing for a top half finish without the distractions of Europe this season.

He will hope Matthew Etherington can return to form after a disappointing 2011-12 season, but I think there is too much in this team and too many other sides that I don't rate as highly and so they may just do enough to push into their highest Premier League finish since returning to the top flight.


Queens Park Rangers: Queens Park Rangers may have survived by the skin of their teeth last season, but there were enough signs to think they are going to have a stress-free season this time around, while the added investment in the club can only push them up the table.

Mark Hughes is a good manager in my opinion and he guided QPR to safety with some big wins down the stretch, including against Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur and the signings he has made look good on paper.

Rob Green will take over between the sticks, while Andy Johnson should help in getting some more goals along with Bobby Zamora and Djibril Cisse. Ji Sung Park and Fabio come in from Manchester United and there is a more 'Premier League feel' to the squad this season.

If QPR can take their form from the end of last season into this, with the added quality in the side, they may just be able to push for a top half finish, far removed from the relegation battle from last season.


Relative Safety

Aston Villa: Paul Lambert took over from Alex McLeish this Summer and he seems to have brought in a much more positive vibe to the club. The Aston Villa fans were never happy with the appointment of McLeish and he didn't endear himself to the faithful with his perceived negative tactics.

Lambert has already made it clear that he wants to get the best out of Charles N'Zogbia and Stephen Ireland, two attack minded players, and that has been received positively from the Villa fans. Darren Bent is back after missing much of last season with an injury and he should have more chances to score goals with support coming from the midfield.

Ron Vlaar has been signed to strengthen the defence, but I expect better from Villa mainly down to the good work Lambert did with his Norwich City team and I think he can get the best out of a squad that under-achieved last season when flirting with a relegation battle.

There is a potential for them to finish in the top half, but I expect them to be much improved from last season and should be far from any relegation issues.


Sunderland: Martin O'Neill inspired Sunderland to a comfortable League position after they had been tumbling down the table in the final days of the Steve Bruce era. While I don't think they will be involved in a relegation battle, they will do well to finish higher than last seasons 13th place after a lack of investment in the playing staff over the Summer.

Nicklas Bendtner was only on-loan last season and they haven't been able to get a permanent deal in place so the Black Cats look a little short up-front and may struggle to get goals on a consistent basis.

However, they look solid enough to ensure they are relatively safe in the League again this season without messing around with a relegation battle, although O'Neill is almost certainly looking to bring in a couple of new faces before the transfer window closes.


Norwich City: There is always a danger in how a club reacts when a new manager takes over from a successful one that has moved on, but I believe the appointment of Chris Hughton at Carrow Road will ensure they don't suffer a 'second season syndrome' in the Premier League and can extend their stay.

Hughton did really well at Birmingham City last season considering all the off-field turmoil that affected his time at St Andrews, and he also was doing a pretty good job at Newcastle United before he was sacked in favour of Alan Pardew.

That was a harsh decision and I think Hughton is capable of proving himself at this level- Norwich struggled at times with their defensive performances, but Hughton has proven himself as being a manager that focuses on keeping things tight at the back and that may make the difference in keeping them up this season.

Norwich have held on to Grant Holt and all of their key players from last season, while signings like Robert Snodgrass and Steven Whittaker can have a positive impact. They will probably drop a couple of positions from last season as teams will be a little more familiar with their personnel, but I think they will be solid enough under Hughton to avoid a relegation scrap.


Relegation Contenders

Reading: A great statistic I have read is only one of the last six Championship winners have gone back down immediately from the Premier League and I, like a lot of others, feel Reading are the best equipped of the new boys to avoid the drop in this season.

Brian McDermott is a decent manager and has shown in Cup competitions that he can mix it with the Premier League managers he is to face this season, while they look to have the most solid squad of the new boys and with one key component- they have the ability to get goals.

Pavel Pogrebnyak ws signed from under the noses of Fulham and he showed his keen eye for goal in six months at Craven Cottage last season, while Adam Le Fondre has scored plenty of goals in the lower Leagues and will look to continue that in the top flight.

Adrian Mariappa can prove why so many Premier League teams wanted to sign the centre half over the last 12 months and the Royals may even be able to surprise many by finishing higher up the table. I have listed them in my 'relegation candidates', but they may surpass these expectations with minimal fuss.


Wigan Athletic: The biggest piece of business Wigan Athletic may have done in the Summer is keeping Roberto Martinez as manager of the club after he was heavily linked with the vacant Liverpool job.

Martinez really impressed me with the foresight to go against the Premier League grain and set his team up in a 3-4-3 fluid system that got the best out of his personnel at the end of last season and he once again somehow guided them free of relegation certainty.

At this moment they have held on to Victor Moses, which could be key to their chances of survival, but there remains an issue with their strikers as I just don't feel comfortable in relying on Franco Di Santo to fire them to safety. Hugo Rodallega has moved on to Fulham so that is an area of concern, especially as Di Santo was top scorer with just 7 goals last season.

It is likely that Martinez continues with the 3-4-3 formation that has worked so well with the players he has and I think they are going to find at least three teams that are not as good and survive yet another season in the Premier League.

However, the lack of goals may mean another season fighting against relegation for much of it.


West Ham United: I haven't been overly impressed with the signings made at Upton Park so far this Summer, but I think Sam Allardyce has the experience to guide them to safety this season, although they could be sitting right above the drop zone come May.

Jussi Jaaskelainan is a solid Premier League goalkeeper and should form the basis of a much more reserved West Ham team- this season the fans are unlikely to badger Allardyce with 'boring' accusations as survival is the key.

The pressure will be on Modibo Maiga to provide the goals after he was signed for a little under 5 million pounds from Sochaux, especially now the bid to buy/loan Andy Carroll from Liverpool has fallen through. Carlton Cole and Ricardo Vaz Te will also be asked to chip in.

There is a solid looking feel to the West Ham team, although slightly underwhelming in terms of creativity and attacking options, but the experience of Allardyce may just be enough to see them maintain their position in the top flight.


West Brom: A lot of people look for a surprise relegation candidate at this time of the season and I think West Brom may just be that team. They have lost inspirational manager Roy Hodgson, a man who levelled the team out after they looked doomed to relegation around 18 months ago, and new manager Steve Clarke is taking on his first job as the Number 1 rather than the Number 2.

They haven't lost any key players from last season and have added Ben Foster in a permanent deal from Birmingham City, but this was a side that wasn't going anywhere when Hodgson took charge and they may not respond to the new voice in the dressing room.

If the Baggies get off to a bad start, it might make life difficult for Clarke and there have been previous instances when a first-time manager doesn't have the same respect from the players as an established one. If things start going downhill, West Brom may be dragged into a relegation scrap, one that may not end well.


Swansea: One team that may not survive 'second season syndrome' in the Premier League is Swansea who have lost an influential manager in Brendan Rodgers and replaced him with Michael Laudrup, a manager that has no previous experience in England.

Joe Allen has already left Swansea to join his former manager at Anfield, while both Gylfi Sigurdsson and Steven Caulker have left having spent time on-loan here last season.

Their style of football surprised many teams last season, but they are unlikely to change that under Laudrup and that could lead to their downfall with more teams being able to cater to what Swansea are going to do (unlike Norwich City who have brought in a manager who should be able to help with their defensive issues from last season and may have a different feel to the rest of the League compared with how they played in 2011-12).

Swansea just look a little weaker this season in defence and midfield and I am not sure they are going to have enough in them to find three teams to finish below them.

Southampton: Southampton replicated Norwich City by moving up from League One and the Championship in consecutive seasons to return to the top flight, but I fear that is where the similarity may end.

Even though I have the Saints at the bottom of my Premier League preview, I have been impressed with the job Nigel Adkins has done in his short time as the manager, while signings like Steven Davis, Nathanial Clyne and Jay Rodriguez look good on paper.

Rodriguez and Rickie Lambert will be looked at for the goals, but I have a feeling the latter may have a hard time now that teams have faced Grant Holt for a season and he is a very similar player in his style and ability.

If those two strikers hit it off, Southampton may just survive, but they have a horrible beginning to the season and that may put some negative energy into the team that may extend into the season.

There are enough teams with question marks to think that Southampton have a chance of survival in this Premier League, but I have to put someone in this position and I think there are rumours that the owners are looking for a way to remove Adkins in favour of a foreign manager and these can create issues that send a club the wrong way.


All of the above are just my thoughts on the teams competing in the Premier League this season and where they could potentially finish. As everyone will have seen while watching football, injuries can affect these final positions, but these are just my personal opinions and I am sure there will be at least three or four teams that surprise me massively.

Let's just hope for a fabulous season.