NBA Picks January 2017 (January 16-22)

It is Martin Luther King Day in the United States on Monday which means a national holiday and the NBA games being played throughout the day.

I didn't make any picks over the last weekend because I didn't really have the research time I would like to devote and it would have been less prepared than normal.

The month is in a winning position, but I want to kick on with some consistency this week and really get things moving in a positive direction.


Monday 16th January
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks are on the bring of being completely destroyed as they continue slipping off the pace in the Eastern Conference. This is a franchise that will always receive far more media attention than a team with a losing record should be getting, but a big market also means big demands from the fans and the Knicks are falling far short of those at the moment.

Phil Jackson was supposed to be overseeing a turn around for the Knicks, but his two and a half years in the job have been inconsistent to say the least. No one has been impressed with the Head Coaching appointments under Jackson who looks to blame everyone but himself for the mess the Knicks keep finding themselves in.

Kristaps Porzingis will be a big miss on Monday as he battles an injury, while we are only seven days removed from Derrick Rose walking out on the team and almost calling time on his Knicks career. Now we've had a piece in the media that suggests Carmelo Anthony could waive his 'no trade' clause and this might be the closest we have come to seeing Anthony get ready to leave Gotham.

It all doesn't bode well for the Knicks who host the Atlanta Hawks in the Garden on Monday and who are facing a team that looks to be building momentum. Atlanta were supposed to be big trade players with some of their veteran pieces expected to be moved on, but they have won eight of their last nine games and look to be in a much better place mentally than the Knicks.

The Hawks look to be matching up well with the Knicks and have used strong Defensive performances to spark their winning run. I would expect Atlanta to win the battles on the board and I do think they can snap their 0-4 run against the spread in the last four against the New York Knicks. Atlanta look to be in a positive state of mind heading to Madison Square Garden and I will back them to cover the points in this one.


Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Philadelphia 76ers will have to have a special second half of the season if they are serious about getting into the Play Offs and everything is possible when you Trust The Process. Joel Embiid is still on a minutes restriction and isn't playing in back to backs, but he will be returning to the starting line up after missing the 76ers loss at the Washington Wizards on Saturday.

That loss snapped a three game winning run for the 76ers, but it is clear this is a team that is playing with more confidence than arguably at any time over the last four seasons. The 76ers had been very competitive before the 16 point loss to Washington, but having their star player back in the line up should mean they are much more competitive when they head to The Bradley Center.

It won't be an easy game for the 76ers as they face a young and hungry Milwaukee Bucks team who look like a Play Off team in the making in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks have been a little inconsistent over the last couple of weeks, but that is not a big surprise when you think of the youthfulness of this squad and the usual ups and downs young players will have.

The Bucks are capable of covering this number when you think how well they have been playing Offensively, but I think the 76ers keep this close because of the Defensive problems the home team have been having. They did cover this number in a win over the Miami Heat last week, but Milwaukee are just 1-2 against the spread as the favourite of 7 points or higher this season and this Philadelphia team have been playing much better than the Heat in recent games.

Philadelphia are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games in Milwaukee, but I think the 76ers can make this number of points count and stay within it.


Charlotte Hornets @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Boston Celtics are not only expected to be an Eastern Conference Play Off team, but they are expected to be in a position to perhaps host at least two Play Off series. There are suggestions that the Celtics may even make a big trade to put themselves in a position to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers for supremacy in the Eastern Conference.

They are facing a Charlotte Hornets team who have been sliding in the Eastern Conference and have been knocked out of the top eight in the East this past weekend. The Hornets have lost six of their last seven games and are close to dropping below 0.500 for the first time this season, while Charlotte also conclude a road trip on Monday in which they have lost four in a row.

A close loss to the Detroit Pistons in the first of those hurt Charlotte, but they have since been beaten comfortably at San Antonio, Houston and Philadelphia and this is a big test for a team who have lost confidence. There have been struggles on the Offensive side of the ball and that has led to some holes Defensively which has seen Charlotte allow at least 102 points in their last seven games.

Defensive performances have been something of an issue for Boston in recent games too, but they are doing enough on the other side of the court to win six of their last seven games. Barring a fourth quarter collapse at the Toronto Raptors, Boston would have been riding a long winning run into this game and they will also likely have a boost with Avery Bradley returning to the roster with his superior Defensive skills.

The Celtics are 18-6 against the spread as a favourite of fewer than 8 points this season and Charlotte are 3-5 against the spread as an underdog of fewer than that number. It has to be noted that Charlotte have a very strong recent record when visiting Boston, but they are 1-6 against the spread in the last seven in this series and I like the home Celtics to win and cover in this one.


Tuesday 17th January
Only a real sloppy opening to the fourth quarter prevented the Atlanta Hawks from making it a 3-0 day, but I am always happy with a winning start to the week. I am looking to keep that going on Tuesday.

Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Toronto Raptors are only a couple of games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference and they do look the closest challenges to prevent the Cavs from making it three Finals appearances in a row. There are some suggestions that the Raptors will hit the trade market to improve, but the chemistry in the current roster is very good and one they may not want to mess around with too much.

The Raptors head off on a three game road trip at three teams with losing records in the Eastern Conference beginning with this tilt at the Barclays Center against the Brooklyn Nets who have the worst record in the NBA. It has been really tough for the Nets who have lost ten in a row and will be favourites to finish with the worst record in the NBA this season as they have continued to struggle at both ends of the court.

The Nets have given up at least 101 points in each of those ten losses and it is made worse by the fact they have not broken triple digits themselves in six of those games. That includes being blown out by the Toronto Raptors in Canada last week and I think it will be difficult for Brooklyn to narrow that gap on Tuesday.

My one concern has to be that Toronto head to Philadelphia for a game on Wednesday night and might be overlooking the poor Nets. The 76ers might have a losing record, but they are a team in form so Toronto could be gearing up for that challenge. However I think the Raptors should have too much Offensively for Brooklyn in this one and I expect Toronto to find a way to move away from the Nets over the course of 48 minutes.

Toronto are 5-1 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season and I will look for them to cover a big number on the road.


Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat Pick: The Miami Heat could decide to make some big moves in the trade market to get them ready for a better 2017/18 season as this one is looking a write off by each passing week. Only the Brooklyn Nets have a weaker record than the Miami Heat in the NBA this season although the Heat do play a lot of their next few games at home to try and improve.

Things might get a little more comfortable for the Heat going forward, but the Houston Rockets come into town as one of the better teams in the NBA. After a couple of setbacks, Houston blew out the Brooklyn Nets last time out and they will look to conclude this mini road trip at the weakest teams in the Eastern Conference with another win before returning home.

The Heat are off a six game road trip where they went 1-5 and they have now lost ten of their last eleven games as the Play Off picture moves into the horizon. This is a difficult test for Miami against a hot shooting Houston Rockets team who have been strong from the three point range and that could be a the key in helping them get over this number.

Houston have been very strong when visiting teams with losing records as they are 9-3 against the spread in that spot this season while the Miami Heat are 3-7 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record.

You can't argue that this is a big number to cover when you think Miami have been good enough Defensively to challenge teams and they do have a good record when given 7 plus points as an underdog. The Heat are 8-4 against the spread in that spot, but I think Houston will have too much firepower for them and they can improve their 6-2 record against the spread in the last eight in this series.


Denver Nuggets @ LA Lakers Pick: The Denver Nuggets visited London last week and blew out the Indiana Pacers and followed that up with an impressive win over the Orlando Magic on Martin Luther King Day. There are still some questions to answer Defensively, but Denver have been very strong on the other side of the court and will feel they can keep the winning run going when they visit the LA Lakers.

The Nuggets might be catching the Lakers at the right time with the latter on a four game losing run and having some problems at both ends of the court. In that run, the Lakers have given up at least 102 points in each game, but they have yet to reach triple digits as some of the younger players on the roster have hit a wall.

It is possible that the Lakers get back on track Offensively against this Denver team who have allowed 118 points per game in their last five games and allowed teams to shoot 50% from the field. However Denver will feel confident in a shoot out with the points they have been producing Offensively and they are facing a Lakers Defense that has allowed almost 49% from the field over their last five games.

Denver have a strong 6-0 record against the spread in their last six visits to the Lakers and that overrides my concern that they have gone 0-5 against the spread in their last five in the second half of a back to back. They did play early on Monday which means more time to prepare for this game and I think the Nuggets are playing well enough to take the points as the underdog.

This will be a close game because of the way the Nuggets have played on the Defensive side of the court, but I like them with the small number of points.


Wednesday 18th January
I have to admit I was a little frustrated to see the Toronto Raptors decide to rest Kyle Lowry for the first time this season on Tuesday which meant they actually went off as 8 point favourites rather than the 11.5 point favourites they were earlier in the day. So technically the Raptors covered, but missed out for me as they were 10 point winners which meant a 1-2 day.

You have to be careful of this time of the season as teams are more likely to give players a rest with one eye on the post-season already, but it is a haphazard task.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Washington Wizards Pick: A strong home record has sparked the Washington Wizards who have moved up to Number 5 in the Eastern Conference. Only the two NBA Finalists from last season have more home wins to this point than the Wizards who have won twelve in a row in this Arena and looking to make it lucky number thirteen when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday.

There is plenty of confidence coursing through the roster in Washington who have won five of their last six games as they look to make a return to the Play Offs having missed out last season. A lot of the success has come thanks to Bradley Beal and John Wall and what they have been able to do on the Offensive side of the court and Washington have responded by scoring at least 100 points in seven straight games.

However don't sleep on what Scott Brooks has instilled on the Defensive side of the court and the Wizards are going to need to make stops against the Grizzlies if they want their winning run to continue. Memphis have been a little more up and down in recent games with some big wins followed by some disappointing losses but they are a dangerous team who Defend against the three point shot very effectively and also are big enough to challenge most teams in the rebounding category.

That is an area where Washington have excelled too and could be part of the reason why the Wizards are able to extend their 7-4 record against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record. Washington also have gone 9-5 against the spread when favoured by fewer than 5 points this season and I think they can win this game with their home court building an aura for visitors to overcome.

Memphis don't have a great recent record here anyway, finishing 1-4 against the spread in their last five visits to Washington, and I think they might give up a little too much Defensively to stay with the home team. I will back the Wizards to continue their strong form at home and cover.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: A poor run of form has seen the Charlotte Hornets not only slip under 0.500 for the first time this season, but they have also fallen out of the top eight places in the Eastern Conference. The same happened to the Portland Trail Blazers in the Western Conference on Tuesday as their inconsistent results continue to see the team flounder seven games below 0.500.

A return home might be a benefit for the Hornets who lost all five games on a road trip, although losing seven of eight overall has to have dented some of the confidence. Head Coach Steve Clifford has urged the team to perform better on the Defensive side of the court as he feels Charlotte have gotten away from that aspect of their game which has sparked the rest of the team.

That is going to be tested by the Portland Trail Blazers who have been strong Offensively which isn't a surprise with CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard in the back court, but their own Defensive issues have been clear to all. The Trail Blazers have been up and down on that aspect of their game but will feel they can at least challenge the Charlotte Hornets off a long road trip and use their own Offensive power to keep the pressure on their hosts.

It is important for the Portland Trail Blazers to stay with Charlotte early in this one having fallen into a hole in the first quarter against the Washington Wizards last time out. They should be able to score enough points to remain competitive and Portland do have a 10-4 record against the spread in their last fourteen games against Charlotte.

Portland have been playing the boards well in recent games and I think they can make use of the points being given to them in this game.


New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Pick: There is a lot of unrest behind the closed doors at Madison Square Garden as the New York Knicks have slipped down the Eastern Conference. Problems have only intensified with news that Carmelo Anthony may be unhappy with Phil Jackson and rumours swirl that the Knicks may be ready to ask their superstar to waive his 'no trade' clause.

Things could have unravelled on the court, but the Knicks have at least shown signs of fight in recent games with their dominance on the glass enabling them to stay in games. However they have failed to get over the line and put a run of wins together and that means New York head to their rivals Boston off the pace in the Eastern Conference Play Off picture.

The Knicks could have Kristaps Porzingis back in the line up having missed a few games with injury and they have been decent Offensively in recent games with Derrick Rose looking more like his old self. However they need to finish and that won't be easy against the Boston Celtics who are still chasing the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference and potentially adding to their roster in the coming weeks.

Boston have a closer in Isaiah Thomas who has come up big in the fourth quarter to help Boston win seven of their last eight games and they will be confident they can do enough to keep their wins going. Avery Bradley is back to give them more Defensive security having just had some difficulty making stops at times, but this is a Knicks team who can score points when all their scorers are out on the court.

With that in mind, this does look like a lot of points for the Boston Celtics to cover even against a rival who they would love to embarrass. The Celtics have gone 3-1 against the spread in their last four home games against the New York Knicks, but Boston are 0-4 against the spread when favoured by 8 or more points this season. It isn't to say the Knicks have thrived as a big underdog, but they can score enough points to stay with Boston in this one and I will take the underdog on the road.


Thursday 18th January
Don't ask me how the Washington Wizards didn't cover against the Memphis Grizzlies but only gave us a push. The referees were at fault by offering up the Grizzlies a debatable foul and then not calling one on Marc Gasol which would have given the Wizards two free throws with seven seconds left that might have been enough for the cover. That meant Wednesday saw the picks go 1-1-1, but I should be up this week with the right amount of fortune behind me, so I am disappointed to this point.

Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks Pick: Both teams are playing the second half of a back to back set on their schedule and it should be noted that the Washington Wizards have not impressed in this spot through the season. They are 1-7 in the second half of these games, but the sole win came over the New York Knicks and I do think Washington can do the same again as they continue their hot roll.

The Wizards and the Knicks both won on Wednesday evening, but the Knicks look like they will be shorthanded again in this one and will need the back ups to make big plays for them. The Knicks do still have the likes of Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony who can produce big numbers for the team, but they will have their hands full with this Washington team who have won six of their last seven games.

Washington are not as good on the road as they are at home, but they have won on their last five visits to Madison Square Garden and they have covered the spread each time. In fact Washington have improved to 8-2-1 against the spread in the last eleven games in the series with the New York Knicks and I expect the Offensive power to give them the edge in this one too.

It looks like New York will be missing Kristaps Porzingis, Joakim Noah and Lance Thomas, but they have still dominated the boards in the last couple of games which have given them a chance to win both games. The Wizards do have some decent size to them though and they have the players who can expose some of the Defensive problems that the New York Knicks have been having for much of the season.

We have now seen Washington score triple digit points in eight games in a row and I think they will have the edge in this one. I like the Wizards as the favourites at the 'World's Most Famous Arena' and I will back them to win this one and cover.


Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: If the Play Offs were to begin today, both the San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets would be playing in the Western Conference post-season. The goals for each team are much different though with the Spurs considered a genuine contender to win the Finals, while the Denver Nuggets will have to battle over the next four months to merely make the top eight in the West.

The Nuggets are playing well at this moment in time with three straight wins and finding an Offensive groove that will make them dangerous. However none of those wins have come against the top tier of teams in the NBA and so you can understand why they are being given as many points as they are in this one.

It was only earlier this month that Denver were blown out easily enough by the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs so they have some room to bridge to be more competitive on the road. This might be the best time to try and earn revenge over the Spurs who have lost two of their last four games and didn't cover in a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves in that time either.

San Antonio are also getting set to visit the Cleveland Cavaliers and could easily be overlooking a team who are six games under 0.500 who they blew out a couple of weeks ago. The Spurs have not been at their best on the Defensive side of the court and Denver are doing enough Offensively to keep this one closer than it was when they last met and I do like the Nuggets with the points.

The Spurs have to be respected as a team who have gone 6-5 against the spread when being asked to cover these big numbers, but this might be a bad spot for them. Hopefully Denver can make a fast start to build confidence and I will take the points and look for the road team to stay within it.


Friday 20th January
I am feeling a little frustrated with the NBA Picks as it could easily have been a much better week than the one I am enjoying. Washington have twice tried to mess up an easy cover by blowing a huge lead in the fourth quarter, while the Denver Nuggets missed some key free throws which at least would have put them within the number.

The only thing I am feeling good about is I am identifying the correct games, I just need a little bit more luck down the stretch to get ahead of the numbers.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: I actually can't remember the last time the Philadelphia 76ers had as many positive vibes as they have at this moment. It has been a long time since the 76ers could say they have won seven of their last ten games and they have a chance to win three in a row for the second time in the last week when they host the Portland Trail Blazers.

One question is whether they will be playing Joel Embiid in this game or on Saturday as they continue to hold out their new star player from back to back spots on the schedule. The 76ers will be playing in Atlanta tomorrow, but I think they want to keep the momentum going from a big win over the Toronto Raptors and that means Embiid is likely to get the start in this one.

This number did jump out at me immediately and, barring Embiid being left out, it is a surprising one to me. The Portland Trail Blazers have lost three in a row, including the first two games of this Eastern Conference road trip, and I am not sure they deserve to be favourites in the game.

Philadelphia have been playing well at both ends of the court in recent games and they have been fired up by Embiid and the confidence he exudes. Other players have begun to feel more comfortable in the system and the 76ers are 3-0 against the spread this season when set as the underdog of less than three points like they are here. On the other side of the coin, Portland are just 4-4 against the spread as the small favourite and they have a 1-3-1 record against the spread in their last five games in Philadelphia.

The confidence in the home locker room has reached levels not seen in recent seasons and this 76ers team truly believe they can get back into the Play Off mix. On current form they should be the underdog in this one and I will back them to cover.


Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks have fallen back out of the tight and congested Eastern Conference Play Off places thanks to a run of three losses in a row, but they can bounce back over the next two days. A double header against the two teams from Florida should give the Bucks the chance to put a couple of wins on the board and get back above 0.500, although they can't afford to take any team lightly.

The first of those games comes at the Orlando Magic who are coming in off a long road trip and who have lost seven of their last eight games. The eye test says the Magic are a lot worse than their record indicates as they continue to have a hard time understanding the Defensive schemes Frank Vogel has put in place for them.

Those problems have meant the Magic have allowed at least 100 points in their last twelve games and Orlando have not really been good enough to make up for that on the Offensive side of the court. The scoring has been better in recent games, but at the same time the Orlando Defensive numbers have been trending in a negative direction.

Milwaukee can take advantage even if their own Defensive performances have not been that good of late. However they should have enough Offensively to challenge Orlando and might just have an edge on the rebounding which can help the Bucks pull away in this game.

The Magic have struggled to a 3-7 record against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record this season and Milwaukee are 6-3 against the spread when favoured by less than four points. It has to be said that Milwaukee have struggled when visiting Orlando, but they won on their most recent game here back in November and I like Milwaukee to lock down for long enough to win and cover on the road.


Indiana Pacers @ LA Lakers Pick: The LA Lakers have hit the wall in recent weeks but this is a team that still has a chance to move closer to the Play Off standings in the Western Conference if they can turn around their form. It is a big task for the young Lakers to take the hits they have and get back on the horse and five straight losses will have dented what had to have been fragile confidence.

It is the struggles on the Defensive side of the ball which hasn't helped the Lakers as they have allowed at least 102 points in each of those five losses, while struggling for consistency Offensively. Now they face an Indiana Pacers team who have won seven of their last eight to move up the Eastern Conference Play Off standings and one who have found their groove on the Offensive side of the court.

I do think the LA Lakers will have some joy in this one shooting the ball as the Pacers have not been totally locked down Defensively, but Indiana will feel they can win any shoot out. The Pacers have looked good bringing down the rebounds and that can be important in these type of shoot outs, but there are a couple of concerns in backing the road team.

One is that Indiana have not been as good on the road despite the win in Sacramento a couple of nights ago, and they have also not been good when visiting teams with losing records like they will on Friday. The Pacers are also 2-3 against the spread when favoured by fewer than four points this season but that is negated by the fact the Lakers have been a poor underdog of less than four points too.

Ultimately I feel the Pacers can do enough on the boards and shooting the ball to move clear of the Lakers who have been inconsistent Offensively. Indiana have gone 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games at the Lakers and I will look for them to improve that by narrowly overcoming this number on Friday.

MY PICKS: 16/01 Atlanta Hawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
16/01 Philadelphia 76ers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
16/01 Boston Celtics - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/01 Toronto Raptors - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/01 Houston Rockets - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/01 Denver Nuggets + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
18/01 Washington Wizards - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
18/01 Portland Trail Blazers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/01 New York Knicks + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/01 Washington Wizards - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
19/01 Denver Nuggets + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
20/01 Philadelphia 76ers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
20/01 Milwaukee Bucks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
20/01 Indiana Pacers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

January 16-23 Update: 6-7-1, - 1.42 Units
January 9-15 Final: 6-6, - 0.54 Units
January 2-8 Final: 4-3, + 0.68 Units

January Update: 10-9, + 0.14 Units
December Final: 19-23, - 5.51 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Season 2017: 32-34-1, - 4.64 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units

NBA Picks January 2017 (January 9-15)

After a rough start to January, the first week was turned around in the last couple of days of making picks from the games in the NBA.

To be honest I haven't really found an appealing angle over the last three days, but Tuesday looks to be a better day and I will begin the picks from the week from today. Keeping the winning going would put this month in a decent position, but I have to be aware of the situations at this time of the NBA season when trades can cause upheaval in teams, especially the rumour of trades disrupting preparation for games.


Tuesday 10th January
Boston Celtics @ Toronto Raptors Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers might be the team to beat in the Eastern Conference, but fans will be looking to the Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics to be their closest challengers. Both teams are potentially working in the trade market to improve their roster too and they come into this game with the Celtics currently holding the Number 3 Seed in the East and the Raptors holding the Number 2 Seed.

That might be the case over the course of the season, but it is Boston who come into the game with some momentum behind them which comes from four straight wins. All of those have been at home though and the last time Boston were out on the road was when they were beaten by the Cleveland Cavaliers.

However they have to be feeling better than the Toronto Raptors who have lost five of their last seven games and who have just looked a little tired at times which has contributed to the struggles on the Defensive side of the court. The last two games have seen Jimmy Butler and James Harden star for their teams in wins over the Raptors and now they have to slow down Isaiah Thomas who is one of the best players in the NBA if not at elite level.

It does look like Avery Bradley will be missing for Boston which is a blow to their chances but Marcus Smart played well in relief of Bradley in their win last time out. The three point shooting of the Celtics has been firing which is going to be a concern for Toronto and the heavy scoring makes Boston a dangerous opponent for them on Tuesday.

The Celtics have played well at the top teams in the NBA as they are 5-1 against the spread in their games at teams with a winning record this season. As long as they don't get beaten in the battles on the glass, Boston have a chance to spring the upset, but I will take the points in this one and look for them to keep this one close with the Raptors.


Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Kyle Korver trade has not been confirmed just yet, but it is basically a done deal and most expected that decision to be the start of the Atlanta Hawks making a few moves before the trade deadline. The fact they traded Korver to the Cleveland Cavaliers underlined that feeling but the expected flurry of moves have yet to occur.

The Hawks are currently holding the Number 4 Seed in the Eastern Conference, but there is a feeling this current roster doesn't have a lot of upside that a few moves could improve the long term outlook for the team. And despite the rumours and the confirmed moves being made, the players in Atlanta clearly feel they are better than what the Head Office do as they have won six in a row heading into this game against the lowly Brooklyn Nets.

This was clearly a rebuilding year for the Nets and I do think the veterans on the roster like Brook Lopez will be getting some interested glances from other teams in the League. Brooklyn are the only team who have yet to win double digit number of games on the season and six straight losses in which they have allowed at least 101 points each time has just dented the confidence of the players here.

Injuries have not helped the cause and Brooklyn have not been hitting the three pointers at the same rate as earlier this season. They might have to match that scoring from the Hawks who have found Tim Hardaway in a strong vein of form from beyond the arc in the absence of Korver and will be extending his minutes on the court.

Defensively Atlanta have been playing very well and they should have an edge on the boards and they can improve a poor recent record in Brooklyn by winning this one by double digits.


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Utah Jazz Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers had a mixed reaction to almost blowing a huge lead against the Phoenix Suns from their last game. While some were upset with the way the Cavaliers took their eye off the ball, others mentioned that it is a long season and that these moments are better to happen in the regular season than doing that in the Play Offs.

The Cavaliers are in the midst of a road trip and they have won four of their last five overall, but will be well aware that the difficulty in test goes up at least two levels when they head to the Utah Jazz. However they might be catching the Jazz at a good point of the season with Utah having lost three of their last four games and coming off a long road trip of their own.

Playing back at home in a first game after a long road trip has proven to be difficult for teams in the past, while rumours about Gordon Hayward's future with the Jazz have been talked about so much that he was actually cheered at times on the road trip. Utah do look set to make the Western Conference Play Offs this season, but they have to improve their 7-12 record against the spread when they play the best teams in the League if they are going to have an impact beyond April.

Utah have just had a couple of issues when it comes to their Offensive performances in recent games and that will be a problem against a Cleveland team who have scored at least 116 points in their last two road games. This has been a difficult place for the Cavaliers to play in recent season as Utah have raised their game when hosting Cleveland, but I think they can snap their two game losing run here.

Cleveland have a 5-2 record against the spread on the road against a team with a winning record and they are 2-1 against the spread when favoured by fewer than three points. I will back them to win this one on the road and keep the momentum going on this road trip by covering the points.


Portland Trail Blazers @ LA Lakers Pick: The Portland Trail Blazers are arguably the biggest underachievers in the NBA this season and not many would have picked them to be seven games under 0.500 as we get to the halfway mark of the season. However their record is still good enough to hang onto the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference although that looks like being a battle that will go right down to the eighty-second game on the schedule.

It might not be the case if Portland can find some consistency in their play but they have struggled to put the wins together so far this season. There is enough to like about what they can do on the Offensive side of the court with Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to call upon, but Portland have been erratic Defensively all season.

They do have a dominant record against the improving LA Lakers who come into this game having won back to back games for the first time early November. The Lakers have started producing strong scoring outings, but the challenge for them will be to try and slow down the Portland Offense who dominated the boards when they played each other last week and used that to produce 118 points in a home win against the Lakers.

The shooting let the Lakers down a week ago and I do wonder if they have the consistency to beat the Portland Trail Blazers. The Trail Blazers have covered in their last six visits to the LA Lakers and have improved to 40-15 against the spread in the last fifty-five games between these teams.

Portland do host the Cleveland Cavaliers on Wednesday which may take some of the focus, but this team is battling to start moving away from the chasing pack in the Western Conference and can't afford to lose games like this. I expect that will be enough to keep them in the moment and I will back the Trail Blazers to have a little too much Offensive power for the Lakers and cover on the road.


Wednesday 11th January
It might have been a split of the opening four picks of the week, but the Boston Celtics must be feeling sick this morning having not won their game in Toronto despite being in a dominant position going into the final five minutes of that game.

The fact that Boston missed the cover too really didn't help else it could have been a decent start to the week.

New York Knicks @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: The New York Knicks had a better than expected first couple of months of the season, but the last few weeks have seen the team slipping out of the Eastern Conference Play Off picture. There is still more than half of the season to be played, but Derrick Rose's unexplained absence from the team on Monday before returning on Tuesday has just kept the negativity around this team.

Rose contemplated quitting basketball on Monday so I do wonder about the state of mind of the former MVP in the NBA. With the Knicks struggling, this is a very difficult game for them against the improving Philadelphia 76ers who have a lot more positive feelings around the locker room despite having seven fewer wins than the Knicks over the course of the season.

Things have been rolling along much better of late that the Philadelphia 76ers are contemplating a run to the Play Offs in an Eastern Conference where none of the teams in the bottom half of the Seedings have been consistent all season. The 76ers have won three of their last four games and almost upset the Boston Celtics in that time, while the New York Knicks have lost eight of their last nine and clearly looking for a way to turn things around.

Philadelphia have to show a little more consistency Offensively if they genuinely believe they can make the Play Offs, while they are 3-11 against the spread in their last fourteen home games against the Knicks. The Defensive side of the court has been a little inconsistent for the 76ers of late and you can understand why they are still the underdog in this game.

However I do think the Knicks are imploding at the moment and the 76ers are 2-0 against the spread when set as the underdog of less than three points this season. New York have been a strong small favourite, but the negative noise around the team over the last two days has to have an effect on the players and I will take the points with Philadelphia.


Memphis Grizzlies @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies have laid the foundations for a Play Off appearance in April, but both teams might feel they can perhaps push on and challenge for a top four Seeding in the Western Conference. That will bring a First Round series with home advantage to one of these teams, but they have a gap to fill if they believe they can achieve more than a Western Conference Semi Final appearance.

Both teams have surprised at times and I don't think there is a lot between them when it comes to the upside of the current rosters. Perhaps a trade or two could see either the Grizzlies or Thunder look more like an also ran in these Conference Play Offs, but that looks a long shot to say the least.

Being evenly matched does mean the points being given to the Memphis Grizzlies do look appealing to me despite that meaning going up against Russell Westbrook. There is no doubt that Westbrook is a leading contender for MVP this season and he is capable of taking any game away from an opponent, while his energy gets the rest of the Thunder playing to a decent level.

However I don't think the Grizzlies will be overawed by the fact they are facing the Thunder having beaten the Golden State Warriors on the road last week. The Grizzlies are a little erratic with their style of play making it hard to be consistent from game to game, and they have really struggled in recent visits to Oklahoma City.

With that in mind, the blow out home win over the Thunder earlier this season should encourage this Memphis team who are as healthy as ever this time of season. The Grizzlies have to be firing from the three point line to earn the upset, but I do think they are capable of making use of this number of points on the road and I will back them with the start.


Thursday 12th January
The Philadelphia 76ers made a big comeback against the New York Knicks to earn a cover for the picks, but the Memphis Grizzlies fell just short which means I remain at par for the week.

There is still time to turn things around and I will have three picks from the Thursday offering including from both games played outside the United States.

Denver Nuggets vs Indiana Pacers Pick: The NBA plays one game in London in the regular season and this year it is the turn of the Denver Nuggets and Indiana Pacers to head across the pond for the game at the O2 Arena. The novelty of having an NBA game in London should ensure a sell out, but this isn't the most inspiring of games.

However it should be a high-scoring one as the Denver Nuggets continue to play far too loosely on the Defensive side of the court although that hasn't prevented them from still being in touch with the Western Conference Play Off top eight Seeds. The Nuggets will be hoping a new country can perhaps change things for them having lost five in a row and allowing at least 120 points in each of those defeats and none of those games have needed Overtime.

It doesn't sound the best when you note they are going to be playing an Indiana Pacers team who have won five in a row and have scored at least 121 points in their last three games. The Pacers are much healthier than earlier in the season and that means having a better depth that allows them to keep the scoring going when turning to the bench.

The Pacers are flying and I think they can keep the momentum riding in this one. They have covered in their last five games while the Nuggets are 1-8 against the spread in their last nine and it might be a struggle to keep up barring some tremendous turnaround from their recent Defensive performances.

Denver have dominated the recent series, but this looks a very good opportunity for the Pacers to keep their run of wins going and I will back them to cover the points in London.


New Orleans Pelicans @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Brooklyn Nets look in pole position to finish with the worst record in the NBA this season as the team have really begun to struggle through injuries. Another home blow out to the Atlanta Hawks keeps Brooklyn down as the only team without double digit wins this season and seven straight losses will have drained any confidence they had.

There won't be too many better opportunities to break the losing run until the end of the month when the Miami Heat come to visit, but the New Orleans Pelicans are fresh off a blow out of the New York Knicks on the road. Anthony Davis escaped any serious injury in that game and should be in the line up for the Pelicans having had a couple of days to rest and this is a team that feels they can be a threat for a Play Off place in the Western Conference.

A slow start put the Pelicans in a hole, but they will feel confident they can make it two wins in a row in a borough of New York City on Thursday thanks to recent performances. New Orleans have just looked a little better Defensively and that can give them an edge against a Brooklyn team who are allowing plenty of points and haven't held a team to fewer than 101 points since the middle of December.

New Orleans have the personnel who can exploit those holes to go along with Anthony Davis while they are 4-2 against the spread when visiting a team with a losing record. I will admit I hate the fact that the Pelicans are just 1-4 against the spread when favoured by less than three points this season but they are 4-1 against the spread in the last five against the Brooklyn Nets.

I am just not convinced Brooklyn can stay with the New Orleans Pelicans with the problems they are having from a Defensive point of view and I like the road to cover as the small favourite here.


Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Pick: One NBA game is being sent to London this Thursday and another is heading to Mexico City. If the London fans feel they have not exactly been given two great teams, imagine how the Mexico City fans are feeling for this game between the bottom two teams in the Western Conference.

At least those fans will get to see San Antonio Spurs later this week so it isn't all bad for the Mexico City fans and there are some legends and promising young talent on the rosters of the Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns to enjoy. Neither team is enjoying a consistent season, but they should be quite evenly matched in this one which at least should produce a competitive game for the fans who don't get to experience the NBA that often.

The layers certainly think so with little between them on the spreads although I have to say I am surprised the Suns are considered the underdog between these teams again. That was the case a couple of weeks ago in Dallas and it was Phoenix who earned the upset and I do think the altitude here will affect the older Mavericks more than the younger Suns in this game.

Phoenix have been a little more competitive than the Mavericks of late and have gone 5-1 against the spread in their last six games. They will feel they have been doing enough Offensively and Defensively to have the edge, while I also think the Suns can win the rebounding battle which can be critical in those games expected to be close.

The Mavericks have also just hit the wall when playing teams with losing records recently having gone 0-3 against the spread in those games and I do like the Suns with the point to get off to a good start in Mexico City before awaiting the arrival of the San Antonio Spurs.


Friday 13th January
It was a difficult Thursday, but I am hoping the 'curse' of Friday the 13th can be reversed.

Charlotte Hornets @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: Trust The Process.

That is what the entire NBA is beginning to do with Joel Embiid living up to the reputation he had coming into the League and continuing to inspire the Philadelphia 76ers to wins and perhaps an unexpected push to the Play Offs. The Process is likely to be rested in one of the next two days which is a concern making this pick as the 76ers have not made it clear when they are planning to do that, but I would be surprised if they decided to rest Embiid as they try and win three games in a row for the first time this season.

There is still a long road back for the 76ers when it comes to the Play Offs but the character shown in coming back and beating the New York Knicks at the buzzer has to inspire this young team who are coming into their own. They are facing a Charlotte Hornets team who have slipped up of late and looking a little porous at the Defensive side of the court, while the Hornets have lost four in a row on the road.

Charlotte are a dangerous team because they can score plenty of points too and this 76ers team is not really one that wants to be in a 'you score, we score' kind of game. The 76ers have cracked 105 points in three of their last five games though and that might be enough to make these points count and turn around the recent form which has seen the Hornets go 4-1 against the spread in Philadelphia.

However the Hornets have not been used to covering big numbers as the favourite. They are 11-6 against the spread as a favourite of fewer than five points, but 4-7 when favoured by five or more points. This is the kind of number that has worked well for Philadelphia all season as they are 8-3 against the spread when given between 4 and 7.5 points as an underdog and I will back the 76ers to keep this one close with Embiid leading the way for them again.


Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: This was always going to be a tough season for the Miami Heat with the 'Big Three' that helped them win the NBA Finals twice in a row now a distant memory. However the Heat have fallen even below the reduced expectations as injuries continue to leave them with a depleted roster and relying on unfamiliar faces for the majority of fans.

The slump has seen the Miami Heat fall back to having the second worst record in the NBA at this point of the season and perhaps some thoughts have turned to whether there are any trade options for them ahead of the deadline. The lottery is certainly going to be in the mind of Pat Riley who has constructed strong teams for the Heat and has to be trusted to get this team turned back around in the off-season.

Miami will be concluding a six game road trip on Friday and have lost three in a row as they head to the Milwaukee Bucks who look a Play Off team in the making in the Eastern Conference. Offensive struggles coupled with some problems at the Defensive end of the court have not helped the Heat and now they face a Bucks team coming off an impressive win over the San Antonio Spurs thanks to former Heat player Michael Beasley.

The Bucks have been inconsistent which isn't a surprise with a young roster, but recent games have shown they have the Offensive output to hurt the Miami Heat. They are shooting well from the three point line and Milwaukee are getting a boost from the bench which has helped them keep enough wins going to to perhaps even challenge for a home Play Off series.

The Miami Heat are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games in Milwaukee. However I do have to consider the fact that the Bucks have not covered a number as big as this and Miami are 8-3 against the spread when given 7 points or more this season as the underdog. That has to be something to think about, but I think the Heat could find the energy tough to come by as they conclude a road trip and think about heading home, and I think that allows the Bucks to just get over this number.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: The Minnesota Timberwolves have won back to back games and have the confidence of being the team to snap Houston's latest long winning run last time out. They did catch the Rockets at a good time in their schedule though and that is not the case in this one against the Oklahoma City Thunder who have dominated the Timberwolves in two previous meetings this season.

Both of those were played at the home of Oklahoma City though so this is a completely different challenge for the Thunder who have a losing record on the road. Eight of the next nine games for the Thunder are on the road now and they will be desperate to get off to a good start which can give them some momentum to take into difficult venues in the next couple of weeks.

There have been improvements made by the Timberwolves on the Defensive side which has helped them, but they have struggled to balance with the Offense until the last couple of games. Now they have to face the red hot Russell Westbrook who has given the Thunder a real boost all season and the energy the Thunder play with means they can challenge anyone on the glass.

Zach Levine could be absent for Minnesota again which does damage their chances of springing a second upset in a row, but they have a young roster that can really pick up their play when hosting the better teams in the NBA. The key for the Timberwolves will be to try and stay with the Thunder when Oklahoma City do hit a hot patch Offensively, and that has been a problem for them at times.

Oklahoma City don't have a great record here, but they have been strong as the small favourite against the spread and I do think they can get their road trip off to a positive start with a narrow win here.

MY PICKS: 10/01 Boston Celtics + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
10/01 Atlanta Hawks - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
10/01 Cleveland Cavaliers - 2 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
10/01 Portland Trail Blazers - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
11/01 Philadelphia 76ers + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
11/01 Memphis Grizzlies + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
12/01 Indiana Pacers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
12/01 New Orleans Pelicans - 2 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
12/01 Phoenix Suns + 1 Point @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
13/01 Philadelphia 76ers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
13/01 Milwaukee Bucks - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
13/01 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes

January 9-15 Update: 6-6, - 0.54 Units
January 2-8 Final: 4-3, + 0.68 Units

January Update: 4-3, + 0.68 Units
December Final: 19-23, - 5.51 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Season 2017: 32-34-1, - 4.64 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units