Australian Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2025 (Monday 13th January)

The Australian Open recently made the decision to open on a Sunday and use the first three days of the tournament for the First Round of the tournament.

The idea is to negate the late finishes that had been far too common at the event, and it might have helped a lot this season with the stormy weather that surprisingly impacted Day 1 of the first Grand Slam of 2025.

It has been a quiet start for the Tennis Picks, but an opening winner is better than beginning with a losing selection and on Day 2 there are a couple of selections that can be read below.

Sofia Kenin + 6.5 games v Coco Gauff: It is hard to believe that five years have passed since Sofia Kenin won the Australian Open title and the American has not really been able to sustain those heights, despite the huge potential she had.

Back then Sofia Kenin was the World Number 15, but it was still an upset to see her win the Australian Open.

Even now, Kenin is still only 26 years old, but she will enter the 2025 tournament outside of the top 80 in the World Rankings, while the little form shown in the warm up events has perhaps contributed to Sofia Kenin being set as such a big underdog to earn a spot in the Second Round.

The odds cannot be a big surprise with Sofia Kenin going up against compatriot Coco Gauff, who is right up there as one of the leading contenders to win the first Grand Slam of the 2025 season. Consistency has helped Coco Gauff move into the World Number 3 spot, while a strong run at the United Cup in the warm up to Melbourne will have filled the top American player with a lot of confidence.

Playing on the hard courts might be favoured by Coco Gauff, but she has grown as a player on the surface and in recent years she has shown improvement in each passing year on the Tour. In 2024 Gauff looked stronger behind the first serve and her return game was very strong, but working on the second serve will be the plan and especially if she is going to win a tournament like this one.

The edge is with Coco Gauff, but you have to believe the match up will give Sofia Kenin plenty of motivation on a court where she won her sole Grand Slam title.

The players last met a little over eighteen months ago at Wimbledon and it was Sofia Kenin who won on that day, despite being the World Number 128 going up against Coco Gauff as the World Number 7. We do know the latter is improved even more from that last match, but this is a very big spread and Sofia Kenin can serve well enough when feeling her tennis to at least win enough games to avoid looking like she has been crushed.

Backing against Coco Gauff in the early Rounds is not easy with the World Number 3 able to play without the pressure of being involved in the second week of a Grand Slam. She will have enough respect for Sofia Kenin to be really focused too, which makes Coco Gauff that much tougher to oppose as the more likely winner, but the higher Ranked player will have to play a really clean match to cover a spread of this size and so backing the underdog looks the right play.

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Caroline Garcia: Things looked to be going to plan as Naomi Osaka cruised through to the Final in Auckland and she took the first set, which had all of the momentum behind the multiple time Grand Slam Champion.

Unfortunately Naomi Osaka had to pull out of the match just after securing the first set in the Final and that raised some concerns about her ability to take part in the opening Grand Slam of the 2025 season.

A former two time Champion in Melbourne, Naomi Osaka has admitted she may not be at 100%, but the scans indicate she can compete and it is a match against a familiar opponent in the First Round at the Australian Open.

Caroline Garcia beat Naomi Osaka twice last year, including at the Australian Open, while the Japanese player won once.

There was nothing wrong with Osaka's serving in the three matches against Caroline Garcia, but she was not able to get enough from the return of serve to really put the Frenchwoman under pressure.

Carrying an injury is not ideal, but Naomi Osaka has played some competitive tennis this year and that is more than can be said for Caroline Garcia. The latter was last in action in mid-September and Garcia has perhaps lost a little bit of love with the sport having announced the pressure that social media has also placed on her.

She has dropped down to World Number 58 and Garcia finished with a 10-10 record on the hard courts in 2024, and there were plenty of early defeats suffered too.

It is hard to guess how well Caroline Garcia can come out and serve having not been in competitive action for as long as she has and the feeling is that Naomi Osaka will be able to do more on the return than she managed in the three meetings last year.

From all of the statements made by Naomi Osaka in the last couple of days, it sounds like she is trying to downplay expectations. This is a concern when backing a player that can lose focus and quickly drop her level when things are not quite going to plan, but it feels like this is a good first match for the former Champion to find her feet in Melbourne.

As much as you have to have some concern about Osaka, the same applies to Caroline Garcia and this is a match which will have fine margins considering the amount of big hitting expected from both. That is where Garcia's match rustiness could work against her and Naomi Osaka might find the breaks needed to edge past this number on the cover.

MY PICKS: Sofia Kenin + 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Australian Open Update: 1-0, + 1.44 Units (2 Units Staked, + 72% Yield)

NFL Super Wild Card Weekend PlayOffs Picks 2024 (January 13-15)

The final week of the regular season is officially in the books and that means we have our fourteen PlayOff teams heading into the post-season.

One from each Conference will be resting this week and watching the others fight it out for a place in the Divisional Round- the two Number 1 Seeds look most likely to meet in Las Vegas next month in the Super Bowl, but there are one or teams in the PlayOffs who will be looking to upset those plans.

Injuries and a loss of form at a bad time means there are a couple of outsiders who are not going to be heavily backed at this point of the season, but you have to play the games on the field and every team that still has a chance of making the Super Bowl will be looking for some momentum to take them through.

The Super Wild Card Round is now going to be played from Saturday through to Monday- money talks so the Monday Night Football PlayOff game is going nowhere.

A worry was that the winning team in that slot would struggle in the short week entering the Divisional Round, but the early sample of games has those teams at 1-1 the following weekend. This time it is the Philadelphia Eagles and Tampa Bay Buccaneers meeting in the final game of the Super Wild Card Weekend and that could mean a trip to the Number 1 Seed in the Divisional Round for the winner if the other Seeds hold up.

However, it feels unlikely that all the higher Seeds will go through on Saturday/Sunday with some good looking games being given tight lines by the oddsmakers down in Vegas.

I'll have my Picks below, but before that you can see how I rate the fourteen teams left:

1) Baltimore Ravens- they have beaten the 49ers and the Ravens look like a team capable of winning it all this season with a strong, balanced approach both Offensively and Defensively.

2) San Francisco 49ers- they were beaten in the 2019 Super Bowl and have suffered NFC Championship Game defeats in the last two years, both times on the road. This time San Francisco have home field throughout the PlayOffs until the big game, and the team looks capable of producing a first Super Bowl win in almost thirty years.

3) Buffalo Bills- momentum is important and the Bills have plenty of experience. Winning the AFC East means they will get an opportunity to host at least two home PlayOff games if they can progress in the post-season and Buffalo might just be ready to win a Super Bowl for the first time.

4) Dallas Cowboys- NFC East winners and a team that may finally live up to those from the past.

5) Kansas City Chiefs- they may be the defending Champions, but Patrick Mahomes may have to show off how good he can be on the road if the Chiefs are to return to the Super Bowl. If the Defensive unit cannot keep them in games, Mahomes and company have to finally find the rhythm that has been missing for much of the season.

6) Cleveland Browns- Joe Flacco has gotten hot in January before to lead his team to a Super Bowl win and the Browns have the kind of Defensive unit that will keep them in games.

7) Los Angeles Rams- are there many hotter teams than the Los Angeles Rams going into the post-season? Matthew Stafford, Aaron Donald and Sean McVay have Super Bowl winning experience to guide younger players through the post-season.

8) Detroit Lions- it has been a strong season for Dan Campbell and his team, but they have a tough start to the post-season and the top two Seeds in the NFC also look a little stronger than the Lions, especially with home advantage.

9) Miami Dolphins- injuries to the Defensive unit will only increase pressure on the banged up Offensive unit. Losing to the Buffalo Bills in Week 18 means road PlayOff Football and Miami have continued to fall short against the best teams in the NFL.

10) Philadelphia Eagles- another team that has picked up some injuries as the season has worn down. The Eagles came up slightly short last season, but they are in miserable form and have a much tougher road towards the PlayOffs than twelve months ago, while some reports suggest there is a breakdown between the players and Coaching Staff.

11) Green Bay Packers- they have perhaps gotten here a year too early with a very young roster. Jordan Love has shown some of the highs he can reach, but inexperience may hold back the team this year.

12) Houston Texans- another team that has overachieved to win the AFC South, but one that will benefit massively from PlayOff experience. CJ Stroud looks a star in the making.

13) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- there is still plenty of experience in the locker room, but the Buccaneers are perhaps one of the more fortunate of the teams to make the post-season.

14) Pittsburgh Steelers- Mike Tomlin has to be given credit for finding a way to drag Pittsburgh to the PlayOffs, but an injury to TJ Watt comes at a very bad time. Rumour suggests Tomlin is ready to step away as Head Coach, while the Offensive unit is still being led by a third string Quarter Back.

These Rankings do not necessarily mean much in terms of how the PlayOffs will shake up, but it would be a huge surprise if any of the bottom seven were able to win the Super Bowl.

Injuries can play a major factor- ask San Francisco after the way the NFC Championship Game was lost twelve months ago. Teams can also step up to earn an upset or two behind hot Quarter Backs, but right now it would be the top two in these Rankings that are expected to compete for the Super Bowl.

Buffalo and Dallas will have something to say as good looking Number 2 Seeds, but Football is played on the field and not paper and so we should have an exciting time finding out when the post-season begins on Saturday afternoon.

Week 18 proved to be as difficult for the NFL Picks as was a concern prior to a game being played, but it has been a solid regular season for the Picks.

Backing that up in the PlayOffs is key, beginning with Super Wild Card Weekend, and the selections can be read below.

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans Pick: A new Head Coach and a Quarter Back selected to be a franchise changer would likely have meant relatively low expectations of the Houston Texans in 2023. Instead, CJ Stroud has proven how good he can be, while DeMeco Ryans has guided the Texans to a surprising AFC South Division Title and the chance to host the first of the Super Wild Card Weekend PlayOff games.

It is a rematch of a Week 16 meeting with the Cleveland Browns, who finished with the top Wild Card Seed in the AFC, but this time Stroud will be suiting up for the Houston Texans. That has not prevented the Browns from being set as the road favourites, but CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans will certainly believe their Week 18 win at the Indianapolis Colts has given them some momentum in what was effectively the first 'PlayOff' game the Texans will have faced this season.

While they battled for a place in the post-season, the Cleveland Browns were able to rest their starters for the final regular season game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

The key question for the Browns is whether that has snapped any rhythm, but they have overcome plenty of issues already this season to earn their spot in the PlayOffs. Losing both Deshaun Watson at Quarter Back and Nick Chubb at Running Back were massive blows for the Browns, but it is veteran Joe Flacco who came in off the street to really give Cleveland the kind of boost that has set them as favourites to reach the Divisional Round.

It may mean a road game at the Baltimore Ravens, the Number 1 Seed and the team that Joe Flacco led to a Super Bowl Championship, although the veteran is well aware of the dangers of overlooking any team when you get into the PlayOffs. He has made it clear to the Cleveland roster that they have to remember it is 'win or go home' time in the NFL and the Browns are going to need Joe Flacco at his very best if they are going to have a deep run.

You don't want to read too much into the Week 16 win secured by Cleveland, especially with Houston in better shape on both sides of the ball, but the Browns did blow out the Texans. That will give Joe Flacco confidence with the Browns very leaning on the veteran Quarter Back as injuries to the Offensive Line and top Running Back has just hurt the output of the ground attack.

Despite the blowout loss in Week 16, the Texans Defensive Line continued to shine by holding the Cleveland Browns to 1.8 yards per carry. They have been stout all season and it is unlikely that Kareem Hunt or Jerome Ford are going to be major factors as runners, although both will be targeted by Joe Flacco when he steps back to throw.

It has been Joe Flacco's ability to target David Njoku and Amari Cooper that has given the Cleveland Browns life, and the veteran will be the key again. The Houston Secondary have struggled at times, but Will Anderson Jr is back and will certainly help spark the pass rush pressure when Flacco drops back to target his Receivers down the field.

That pressure could lead to more Interceptions (Flacco had two in the win over Houston) and there is certainly a feeling that the Texans will force the experienced Quarter Back into one or two mistakes here. The Browns should still have some success throwing the ball against this Secondary, but they will need a big game from the Defensive unit if they are going to secure a place in the Divisional Round.

Key performers like Anderson Jr will be back Defensively, while Houston will also have CJ Stroud at Quarter Back rather than Case Keenum and/or Davis Mills. Those two struggled against a very strong Cleveland Defensive unit, but that Week 16 game was played at the home of the Browns and there is no doubting that this Defense has been strong, but less effective on the road.

One of the major problems for the Browns has been the Defensive Line and being able to contain the run- the Texans picked up 4.5 yards per carry in the regular season meeting and that was without CJ Stroud, who will be given a lot more respect for his abilities at Quarter Back than his backups would have been.

With the team still struggling to control the line of scrimmage, Houston will certainly be looking at Devin Singletary to establish the run for the home underdog. This could be massive for the entire team with CJ Stroud not needing as much time to make his throws down the field behind an Offensive Line that has not been as strong when it comes to pass protection as it does to run blocking.

Injuries in the Receiving corps is a big problem for Houston, but it will certainly help if they are playing in third and manageable spots. CJ Stroud has shown he can find Nico Collins, although it will an issue to find consistency when throwing the ball without some of the other players that had stepped up for the rookie Quarter Back in the regular season.

We are unlikely to see a blowout as was the case in Week 16, but the edge is still with the Cleveland Browns.

Houston have perhaps reached the post-season earlier than expected and rookie Quarter Backs have had their issues in PlayOff starts. First time Quarter Backs in the PlayOffs in general have had a difficult time and the Cleveland Browns will not have put in any big effort in Week 18 like the Texans needed to win the AFC South.

The Texans can keep this close by running the ball effectively, but Joe Flacco and company may just step up with the bigger plays in the passing game. Turnovers could be a problem for the Cleveland Browns considering they are likely to be pretty one-dimensional Offensively, but Flacco has shown he can find the spaces in this Houston Secondary to lead his team to a win.

It is the PlayOffs and nothing is likely to come easy, but the feeling is that Cleveland can just about edge through to the Divisional Round. The Texans have been a solid underdog to back this season as they have overachieved, but the Browns have been a good favourite and they can secure just a second PlayOff win since the formation of the current Cleveland Browns.

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The inability to hang onto the lead they entered the Fourth Quarter with has had a huge impact on the Miami Dolphins as they return to the PlayOffs. Instead of a home game and the Number 2 Seed in the AFC, the Dolphins dropped all the way down to the Number 6 Seed and that means having to travel to cold, very cold, Kansas City Chiefs instead.

The Chiefs are well rested having allowed the starters some time off in Week 18 with the AFC West Division secured again. They may not be the favourites to defend their Super Bowl crown, but the Chiefs are loaded with experience and it will take a strong effort to knock off Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Losing to the Buffalo Bills will have just raised those questions about the Dolphins and whether they can beat good teams or are just a product of their kind schedule. It seems to be a bit of both, but the defeat in Week 18 came with a number of injuries with the Defensive unit taking a significant hit.

A number of players look like they will be missing for Miami and they have had to pick up a number of veterans who had been sitting on the sofa to try and bolster the team. Xavien Howard is going to be a big miss at Quarter Back, although the Dolphins may look at this game as one they can manage without one of their top Defensive Backs considering Kansas City's Offensive woes through much of the season.

The line of scrimmage will be key for the Dolphins, although they have not been as efficient at shutting down the run on the road as they have been at home. The conditions may mean they will be willing to take more of a risk to attack Isiah Pacheco and stop the Chiefs establishing the run, while it would also allow the new look pass rush to try and rattle Patrick Mahomes.

Any obvious passing down and distance will give the Dolphins a chance to try and rush the Quarter Back and Patrick Mahomes has not really found a chemistry with his Receiving corps this season. The Chiefs will be able to make some plays through the air, but the conditions may make it more difficult and the bigger ambition for Mahomes may be to ensure he does not make mistakes that set up short fields for Miami.

It will mean they can lean on a Defensive unit that have played at a high level and who will feel they can get the better of a Dolphins team that have struggled when facing some of the stronger teams in the NFL. Add in the fact that Raheem Mostert and Jayden Waddle are both banged up, while Tua Tagovailoa is making his first PlayOff start and you have to believe the Chiefs can at least limit what the Dolphins are able to produce Offensively.

The Offensive Line was healthier in Week 18 and may be stronger with another week on the field- this is so important for the Miami Dolphins as the look to establish the run and try and control the outcome of this Super Wild Card game. The Dolphins have been able to run the ball with their misdirecton and motion at the line of scrimmage, but they will have to note that the Kansas City Defensive Line have just stiffened up as the season wound down.

If the Chiefs can control the line of scrimmage, they will feel the Secondary is playing well enough to benefit from the pass rush pressure they are expected to generate around Tua Tagovailoa. That pressure could lead to turnovers, which has been a problem for the Quarter Back against the better teams faced, and this may be Miami's undoing, even in Tyreek Hill's 'revenge' game.

Making mistakes will be fatal to the Miami chances and this is a team that has not enjoyed playing in the extreme cold that has been forecasted for Kansas City.

This would have been a tough PlayOff environment even in perfect conditions, but first time PlayOff starter Tua Tagovailoa may have a very difficult time in the cold, which has been a problem for him in his career.

Miami are also 2-8 in the ten road starts made by this Quarter Back with the Dolphins set as the underdog. They are just 1-5 against PlayOff teams this season, while Tua Tagovailoa is 3-7-1 against the spread when playing away from home against a team with a winning record.

He has also lost all four road starts at night when set as the underdog and the feeling is that the Kansas City Chiefs may do just enough at home to cover this spread. The public look to be favouring the road underdog, but Patrick Mahomes is 12-7 against the spread when that has happened and he can guide the Chiefs to a similar margin of victory as they had over the Dolphins in the regular season.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: After losing to the Philadelphia Eagles at the end of November, it felt like it was a long road back towards the PlayOffs for the Buffalo Bills. The players have admitted that they have felt in post-season mode ever since moving into December and the Bills have won five in a row to not only power into the PlayOffs, but to finish with the Number 2 Seed.

The reward is a home Super Wild Card game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, who somehow managed to sneak into the PlayOffs as the Number 7 Seed.

It was three wins in a row that took the Steelers into the PlayOffs and two of those wins have come as the underdog, which is very impressive. Mason Rudolph was the third string Quarter Back, but leapfrogged both Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky and led the three wins over the Cincinnati Bengals, Seattle Seahawks and Baltimore Ravens to guide Mike Tomlin's men into the PlayOffs.

Some reports still suggest that Tomlin may leave his post as Head Coach when the Steelers season ends, while the biggest blow to the team is losing TJ Watt to an injury. The leader on the Defensive side of the ball has been key for the Pittsburgh Steelers and they are remarkably 1-10 without him, while going 2-4-1 against the spread since the beginning of 2022 when Watt has been sidelined.

With the cold, windy conditions expected in Buffalo on Sunday, losing Watt will still be a massive blow for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

However, that loss can be lessened if the Steelers Defensive Line can find a way to contain the run- the Bills struggled to run the ball efficiently in Miami in Week 18, but James Cook and Josh Allen are more than capable of running the ball right at the Pittsburgh Steelers and keeping the team in front of the chains.

Josh Allen has admitted that the gusty conditions may make it tougher to throw the ball, but he should have an 'easier' time if the Bills can run the ball and stay in front of the chains. Not having TJ Watt harassing him when he drops back to throw is also a huge bonus and this Pittsburgh Secondary will struggle to contain Stefon Diggs and the two Tight Ends that will run down the field and find spaces with the time Josh Allen is expected to have.

It should be noted that the Bills have struggled to cover as double digit favourite- Josh Allen has not covered in his last seven in that position, although the last cover was against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The key to that happening in this Super Wild Card game is the Buffalo Defensive unit who have really been playing at a very good level down the stretch to help guide the team into the PlayOffs. They will be facing Mason Rudolph making his first PlayOff start as a Quarter Back, a situation that has proved too much for the majority in the past in that position.

Pittsburgh have to lean on the Offensive Line and the dual Running Backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren and see if they can frustrate the Bills and keep Allen and company icing up on the sidelines.

They have been a little inconsistent when it comes to running the ball, while the Buffalo Defensive Line have been a little better as the season has worn on. Much of this one could come down to how much respect the Buffalo Defensive unit have for Mason Rudolph or whether they are going to sell out on stopping Harris and Warren.

If they can control the line of scrimmage, the Buffalo pass rush will really give Mason Rudolph fits and that pressure has led to better Quarter Backs making rash decisions and forced turnovers.

Three Touchdown passes and avoiding Interceptions have been key for Mason Rudolph since being reinstated as the starting Quarter Back, but keeping a clean game may be more difficult in this one. If the game gets out of control, the Steelers will not want to be throwing in these conditions and that may only compound the issues for a Quarter Back making his first post-season start.

Mike Tomlin has a very good record as the Head Coach of an underdog-set Pittsburgh Steelers, but they are just 3-5 against the spread when given at least 8 points. The Steelers have been 7 or more point underdogs twice in the PlayOffs and are 0-1-1 against the spread, including a 21 point loss as a double digit dog at Kansas City two years ago.

This is also the third week in a row that the Steelers are playing on the road and that is a difficult spot for most teams, while an experienced Buffalo team have the momentum to push forward and earn their place in the Divisional Round with a rare cover of a massive spread.

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: First time Quarter Backs playing in the post-season have had a very difficult time and the records against the spread back that up.

In Super Wild Card Weekend in January 2024, the first three games will see us opposing those Quarter Backs, but this one looks an opportunity to back Jordan Love as he brings the young Green Bay Packers to Arlington.

Three wins in a row have helped the Packers return to the PlayOffs a year after missing out with Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back and Jordan Love has had some very strong moments. The Packers are one of the younger rosters in the NFL and so the future looks bright, but it should also be pointed out that they are the Number 7 Seed and that means having to face a very tough road game.

The Number 2 Seeds are the Dallas Cowboys who are looking for a really strong run in the post-season. They have not played in the NFC Championship Game since the 1995 season when the Cowboys last won the Super Bowl and there is pressure on Mike McCarthy as Head Coach with Jerry Jones expecting a minimum run of reaching that Championship Game this time around.

It is no surprise to see the Cowboys down as the favourites and they could be facing a Green Bay Secondary without Jaire Alexander who was hurt on Wednesday and missed practice on Thursday. Losing their best Corner Back will be a devastating blow for the Packers as they look to find a way to contain CeeDee Lamb and really would give the Dallas Cowboys an edge.

However, the Packers Defensive Line have been playing well down the stretch as they helped guide Green Bay back into the post-season. This will be encouraging for the Packers, especially as the Dallas Offensive Line have not really dominated at the line of scrimmage as we have come to expect.

Being in a position to place the pressure on Dak Prescott at Quarter Back will feel like a big advantage, even if Alexander is not good to go. While the numbers have been very good this season, Prescott would likely be under pressure from the Packers pass rush and the fact of the matter is that the Quarter Back will know the expectation level of the fans inside the Stadium.

He is just 1-5 against the spread in his six PlayOff starts for the Dallas Cowboys, while the team in general are just 3-12-1 against the spread in their last sixteen PlayOff games. Some of that is down to having to deal with a great sense of expectation, while the layers will know that people are going to be lined up around the corner to back Dallas in a big game.

Dak Prescott does have a good record when favoured by at least 6 points at home, but this game very much depends on how well Jordan Love handles his first start in the post-season.

Much like the Dallas Cowboys, the Green Bay Packers would love to establish the run and try and ease some pressure on Jordan Love at Quarter Back. Aaron Jones has been back and the Packers have been running the ball well, but they are going to be facing a tough Cowboys Defensive Line who have really been stout against the run down the stretch.

This really feels like a key to the outcome of the game- both teams will feel they can dominate the line of scrimmage and it is also important to make sure Green Bay remain competitive and not be forced into a one-dimensional game plan.

The Offensive Line have been a strong part of Green Bay on this side of the ball and they have also been very good at giving Jordan Love time in the pocket. Keeping the Dallas pass rush away from Love will not be easy, but the Packers will be hoping to be in front of the chains and that should mean there is an opportunity to attack this Secondary.

Interceptions, or avoiding them, will be high on the mind of Jordan Love who could have Christian Watson back in the line up as someone who can stretch the field. The young Receiving corps have stepped up for Love and the Packers may be able to make enough plays on this side of the ball to ensure a competitive game.

Mike McCarthy would love to get one over his former team and the edge has to be with Dallas at home, although covering this spread may be more challenging.

Matt LaFleur is 20-10 against the spread when set as the underdog as the Green Bay Head Coach and he can put together a strong enough game plan to make sure the Packers are competitive in this Super Wild Card Weekend game.

Los Angeles Rams @ Detroit Lions Pick: After spending twelve years with the Detroit Lions, Matthew Stafford was traded to the Los Angeles Rams with Jared Goff coming the other way.

It worked out very well for the Rams who won the Super Bowl in Stafford's first season as their starting Quarter Back, but the Lions fans will be very happy with the development of their own team and the abilities that Jared Goff has shown.

The 'NFL Script' has certainly come up big with the Number 3 Seeded Lions hosting the Number 6 Seeded Los Angeles Rams and it is no surprise that this has been given a primetime spot on Sunday evening. Amazingly this is the first time Matthew Stafford will be starting a PlayOff game in this Stadium, despite the number of years he played for the Detroit Lions, and he will be arriving with one of the hotter teams entering the post-season.

A few weeks ago it felt like the Los Angeles Rams were not going to be able to force a return to the PlayOffs for the first time since winning the Super Bowl. However, seven wins in eight games with the only exception being a tight defeat to the Baltimore Ravens will have really boosted the belief of the Rams and they are a very live underdog.

There has been a really nice balance in the Offensive approach run by the Rams, although that may not be as evident when they face this Detroit team.

The Lions have a Defensive Line that have proven to be very strong when it comes to clamping down on the run so it may be difficult for Kyren Williams to be able to move the ball on the ground as he has at time during this successful run. You have to assume Sean McVay will find a way to produce something that resembles an effective rushing attack, but Williams may be more of a threat as a pass-catching Back rather than continuing to pound his head against the Lions brick wall.

Pass rush pressure is likely going to be a factor going against Matthew Stafford and the Rams, but the veteran Quarter Back will also recognise the problems Detroit have been having in the Secondary. The Receiving corps is certainly capable of winning their battles on the outside and the Rams should be able to make some big plays in the passing game, while also setting up screens to make sure they are not too far behind the chains.

The line of scrimmage is expected to be key on the other side of the ball as the Lions look to get plenty out of both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. In recent games the Lions have been grinding out the yards, but this looks another tough challenge with the Rams Defensive Line improving week after week when it comes to stopping the run.

For all of the successes that Jared Goff has had this season and since joining up with the Detroit Lions, the Los Angeles Rams will believe that they can rattle him into a mistake or two if they can control the line of scrimmage.

The Rams Secondary have allowed teams to have success throwing the ball against them and the Lions should be able to get the passing game going, especially as the Offensive Line have offered Jared Goff plenty of time. However, there have been some big Interceptions in key games down the stretch and making those mistakes will certainly give the Rams an advantage as far as the outcome goes.

Jared Goff will be a player that Sean McVay knows plenty about, but he has really performed well for Head Coach Dan Campbell.

He has been particularly impressive indoors and Matthew Stafford has a pretty poor record as the underdog- only one of the last six games started by Stafford for the Rams has been with the team set as the underdog, although he did help cover in that one against the Baltimore Ravens.

In general Matthew Stafford has struggled and his team is just 1-9 in the last ten in that position straight up.

Beating their former Quarter Back to head through to the Divisional Round would be a huge plus for the Lions, but teams being set as favourites in their first PlayOff game after missing out the previous years have tended to cover. Momentum is with the Los Angeles Rams and Stafford should be very comfortable in this Stadium, while McVay's familiarity with Jared Goff has to give the Rams another edge.

There should be plenty of points scored, but taking those on offer with the road underdog looks the most appealing angle to play.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Things can change very, very quickly in the NFL and there is a feeling that something has shifted irreversibly with the Philadelphia Eagles.

A few weeks ago they looked on course to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the NFC for a second season in a row and many would have had them down as favourites to reach the Super Bowl and perhaps even manage to finish with the Championship. Instead the team have lost five of their last six games and not only failed to earn the top Seed, but did not defend their NFC East crown and dropped to the Number 5 Seeding.

It likely means needing to win three road games to reach the Super Bowl rather than two home games, while reports suggest Head Coach Nick Sirianni is on the verge of being fired. He has guided the Eagles to the PlayOffs in each of the three seasons in charge, including the Super Bowl run last season that just came up short against the Kansas City Chiefs, but there has been a suggestion that the players are no longer playing for Sirianni and his Coaching staff.

Losing this Super Wild Card Weekend game on Monday in a prime time spot would perhaps be the final blow and Nick Sirianni needs a big performance from his team.

They are facing the NFC South Division Winners after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers bounced back from a Week 17 defeat to see off the Carolina Panthers and enter the PlayOffs as the Number 4 Seed. After Tom Brady retired last season, the Buccaneers may have felt this would be something of a transitional season, but Baker Mayfield has played well enough to guide them back into the post-season.

However, Baker Mayfield has been banged up and so there has to be a question about whether he can do enough to expose the obvious issues the Eagles are having Defensively.

The Buccaneers have won five of their last six games so certainly have the momentum to get the better of the defending NFC Champions. They will need Baker Mayfield at Quarter Back though and that is largely down to the fact that Tampa Bay do not match up as well with the Eagles on the Offensive side of the ball.

A healthy Mayfield would have a chance to attack this Secondary, but the Buccaneers Offensive Line have not really found a way to establish a consistent running attack to balance things out for their Quarter Back. Even with a faltering Eagles Defensive Line in front of them, Tampa Bay may have issues getting Rachaad White going on the ground, although the Running Back is someone that can play a part in the passing game.

This will likely mean the pressure is on the Quarter Back to make the big throws to the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and try and move the chains through the air. Baker Mayfield has shown he can do that, but he might be under a bit of pressure from the Eagles pass rush, while he will also have to be very aware of the turnovers that Philadelphia's Defensive Backs will be chasing.

He is 2-0 against the spread in previous PlayOff starts and that will offer Tampa Bay encouragement as they look to upset the Eagles. They failed to do that in the regular season when beating as a 5.5 point underdog in this Stadium back in September, but a lot has changed for Philadelphia since then and the spread reflects that.

Jalen Hurts has been banged up, but a big problem for the Quarter Back is that both AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith could be limited. Being without the top two Receivers would make things very difficult for Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles, especially against this Buccaneers Defensive unit which has been a huge part of the run into the post-season.

While the Offensive Line struggles, Tampa Bay's Defensive Line have been very strong at the line of scrimmage and they will feel they can contain the Eagles running threat. Of course Jalen Hurts is capable of scrambling for First Downs of his own, although he may not be completely comfortable trying to do that with a banged up body.

The Eagles will do well to keep the Buccaneers pass rush from rattling Jalen Hurts and if the Wide Receivers are not quite right, this has the makings of an upset.

Mistakes made in the passing game have been an issue for Hurts down the stretch and he has to be thinking the same as Baker Mayfield in knowing how important it is to have a clean game.

This may mean less risks being taken, while the lean in the spread is with the Buccaneers having a start.

Instead of that, the selection is backing this game to finish under the total line set and that is largely down to the problems both Offensive units could have in finding consistency. Turnovers could be the major issue with short fields being created likely to result in a relatively high-scoring game, but you have to believe both game plans will be to avoid as much risk as possible knowing how important the turnover battle is expected to be.

Early forecasts suggest it will be wet and potentially windy, which makes the passing game that much harder to execute and both teams may look to pound the rock and control the clock and the tempo of the game. The reports suggesting Philadelphia are exploring potentially firing their Head Coach is not ideal a couple of days before a PlayOff game, and has me leaning with the upset, but the play is going to be back an 'under' in this total line set.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Philadelphia Eagles Under 43.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

2023 Season: 70-55-4, + 11.03 Units

Boxing Picks 2024- Artur Beterbiev vs Callum Smith (January 13th)

We are yet to see full schedules released by the top promotion companies for the first half of the year, although a number of weekends have been filled through to the end of February.

Early next week the Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou press conference is set to take place in London, while other rumoured events are hoping to be signed off and announced soon.

However, while we are waiting for some fights to be announced, we do have a really big Light Heavyweight World Title fight this week in Quebec City. The assumption is that an Artur Beterbiev win will lead to an announcement that he will be taking on Dmitry Bivol for the Undisputed Title in the coming months, but Callum Smith, his supporters and promotional team are very much calling the upset.

It looks like being part of a solid month to open the Boxing year, while this looks to be the biggest fight until the Undisputed Heavyweight bout between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk which is now just over a month away from taking place in Saudi Arabia.

The undercard is decent enough and features a World Title defence and also the return of a potential Super Middleweight contender as he tries to push his unbeaten record on a wider platform.

The Picks went 1-1 last week as the top fights on the card both ended in the First Round.

Ismael Barroso's win over Ohara Davies was a stunning result for the older man and one that the latter will struggle to overcome. Excuses have been made, but Davies is going to need a big win to bounce back immediately, especially as most felt he was fortunate to even be in a spot such as he was.

Vergil Ortiz Jr also won in the First Round, although that was more down to a controversial step in from referee Tony Weeks.

The veteran referee was hugely criticised for Stopping the Barroso fight in his loss to Rolly Romero last year and it feels like Weeks' time at the top is over. He was once a very good referee, but poor decisions are becoming more frequent and his suggestion that he felt Lawson was cleared to fight with a dangerous aneurysm that showed up in his pre-fight tests is actually remarkable.

Tony Weeks has effectively suggested the Commission made a mistake clearing Lawson and that influenced his hugely premature decision to stop the fight when he did.

Personally that feels like an excuse that may cost him any further jobs in Nevada and ultimately may be the last words of a desperate man that does not want his career to end.

Artur Beterbiev vs Callum Smith

Eddie Hearn has suggested that Dmitry Bivol has signed off to face Artur Beterbiev for the Undisputed Light Heavyweight Title in his next bout as long as the Canada based Russian can win his fight this Saturday.

However, at the same time, Hearn is pretty bullish on the chances of Callum Smith upsetting those plans as the first really big fight of 2024 takes place this weekend.

Artur Beterbiev holds three of the World Titles, but he is 38 years old now and has only had one fight in each of the last two years. It is a couple weeks shy of being twelve months since Beterbiev was last seen in action as he came through some difficult moments before eventually Stopping Anthony Yarde in London.

You do have to wonder if this inactivity is going to hold him back, while there is always the concern that Artur Beterbiev ages overnight. He lives a solid life outside of the ring, but ultimately he is a week away from turning 39 years old and there have perhaps been one or two signs that he is not quite at his peak level in a couple of his recent fights.

The Champion still hits hard and he will come forward looking for the heavy shots to put his opponent under pressure and it would be more guesswork than actual knowledge to believe Beterbiev is going to age in the ring this time around.

Inactivity is always an issue as you get older and Deontay Wilder found that out last month in Saudi Arabia- however, he was beaten by a fighter who has been plenty active of late and that is not the case with this Challenger.

Callum Smith has quite surprisingly not been in the ring since August 2022 and he has only won a couple of low level fights since moving into the Light Heavyweight Division after being outfought by Canelo Alvarez at Super Middleweight.

Both of those victories have come relatively early and it does mean that Callum Smith has only had SIX competitive Rounds since December 2020.

The British fighter is tall and does have some pop, but the performance against Canelo is a little concerning.

He quickly decided that he would cover up and try and get to the scorecards in that defeat and Callum Smith gave away his World Title with very little pushback on the night.

The feeling is that he might give it a go early, and there is confidence from within the camp, but that the Artur Beterbiev power will be a real eye-opener for Callum Smith. It may mean he looks to counter and eventually begin to try and move away and stay out of distance, much like he did against Canelo.

Callum Smith went into his shell when he felt he could not win, but Beterbiev hits hard enough to break through the defences as he did when wiping out Marcus Browne and Anthony Yarde. The Champion is someone who will put on educated pressure and Artur Beterbiev can get through early pressure before taking over and eventually breaking down Smith and forcing a second half Stoppage.

The expectation is that Callum Smith is not going to take the Joe Smith Jr route of all out aggression and hoping something lands.

Four of the last five Stoppages produced by Artur Beterbiev have come in the second half of bouts as he has broken down opponents and that looks the most likely outcome of this Championship bout.

Quebec City is hosting this card and Top Rank have offered up an unbeaten Super Middleweight to take part and continue his push towards a World Title shot.

Christian Mbilli has just begun to step up his level of competition and takes on Rohan Murdock who has won three in a row since an Eleventh Round Stoppage at the hands of Zach Parker.

The Australian has been relatively inactive and certainly compared with unbeaten Christian Mbilli, who can start quickly and perhaps even find a finish before hearing the bell for the Sixth Round.

Another World Title is also being defended on the card by Jason Moloney and he is expected to have too much experience for Saul Sanchez.

With his two defeats coming against top fighters, Moloney has bounced back to win the WBO World Title. He has been in with a much higher quality of opponent than his American opponent and that should show up on the night with the feeling being that the Champion can win a Decision.

MY PICKS: Artur Beterbiev to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.37 William Hill (2 Units)

Christian Mbilli to Win Between 1-5 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 1-1, - 0.68 Units (4 Units Staked, - 17% Yield)

College Football National Championship Game 2020- LSU Tigers vs Clemson Tigers (January 13th)

The National Championship Game is ready to go this Monday and I have to say I could not have wished for a better one than this between the two Tigers of LSU and Clemson who have looked the best two teams in the nation. That is no disrespect to the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oklahoma Sooners who were both beaten in the Semi Final Bowl Games, but the defending National Champion against the best the SEC have to offer is the perfect way to the end what has been yet another fabulous season.

Some of the very best names in College Football are involved in this game and do not be surprised if the Quarter Backs playing in this National Championship Game are selected Number 1 Overall in the next two NFL Drafts. Joe Burrow of the LSU Tigers is almost certainly going in that position in a couple of months time, while Trevor Lawrence of the Clemson Tigers will be projected into the Number 1 Overall slot in most Mock Drafts as soon as he declares himself eligible to leave for the professional ranks.

It is perhaps no surprise that the Clemson Tigers are set as the underdog having had an easier schedule for much of the season. They were also pushed to the limit by the Buckeyes in their Semi Final win compared with the LSU Tigers who blew out the Oklahoma Sooners without being tested. In fact the LSU Tigers have not really been pushed since their impressive road win over the Alabama Crimson Tide and I can imagine there will be plenty of enthusiasm in backing a team like that.

Joe Burrow has been in fantastic form all season and there has to be the encouragement of seeing the Clemson Secondary give up one or two big plays in the win over the Buckeyes. For much of the season that Secondary hasn't been tested like they would have been against Ohio State and this is another step up when facing LSU who are the first Offensive team to have a 5000 yard passer along with TWO 1000 yard Wide Receivers and a Running Back with 1000 yards on the ground.

Stopping LSU looks an almost impossible task, but Clemson will have faith in the Defensive Line to at least reduce the chances of Clyde Edwards-Helaire from taking over on the ground. If they can at least force LSU to have to make plays from third and long from time to time, Clemson do have the pass rush which can at least try and rattle a Quarter Back having the best year of his life by some distance.

With that in mind I do think Joe Burrow will have a strong game and that is going to put some pressure on Clemson's Trevor Lawrence to keep up in what could be something of a shoot out. If the game had taken place a few weeks ago you might have been more confident in Clemson being able to do that, but the LSU Defensive unit finished the season in very strong form to underline that this is a more complete team than some of the PlayOff Committee members originally believed.

Travis Etienne has to establish the run in this one for the Clemson Offensive unit to have the kind of success they will likely need to win a second National Championship in a row. This year the Running Back has been a huge success both punishing the ball on the ground and also as a safety blanket for Lawrence and in screen plays. Those are all areas in which Etienne has to come up big on Monday evening if the Tigers are going to win this game, but they are facing a LSU Defensive Line which has clamped down on teams and held them to 2.9 yards per carry in their last three games which include the SEC Championship Game and College Football Semi Final.

The Clemson Offense might have a bit more success as Trevor Lawrence has to be respected, while he has also shown he can move the chains with his legs from the Quarter Back position. Trevor Lawrence is one of the elite Quarter Backs in College Football, but he will have to be at his very best to hurt this LSU Secondary which has also improved down the stretch.

Like their counterparts, Clemson know they have to find a way to run the ball to just ease the LSU pass rush which will believe they can get on top if they hold Clemson to third and long and obvious passing downs.

No team has won back to back National Championships since the forming of the College Football PlayOffs and that does go against Clemson here. However Clemson have beaten Alabama from the SEC twice in National Championship Games in the new format and the underdog has covered in all five previous National Championship Games played.

Clemson are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten as the underdog and they are 17-4 against the spread in their last twenty-one games played on neutral fields. The LSU Tigers have some strong trends and getting in front of a freight train like this one can be very difficult to do, but I like the experience of this Clemson team and I think they can at least keep this one close.

It should be a very good National Championship Game and more likely to go down the route of three of the previous five runnings which have been decided by 5 points or fewer. Last year Clemson did blow out the Alabama Crimson Tide as an underdog, but I can't see this one going that way and instead will take the points with the defending National Champions.

Joe Burrow versus Trevor Lawrence- I say get the popcorn out and enjoy the big game on Monday night.

MY PICKS: Clemson Tigers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Outright Picks and Preview 2019 (January 14-27)

I decided fairly early on that the first couple of weeks of the 2019 Tennis season would be ones in which I take a watching brief although the two Picks I did make both returned as winners.

I'm never a big fan of those tournaments the week prior to a Grand Slam, but that seems to be especially the case ahead of the two Slams that are played on the hard courts. At the start of the season it is also quite difficult to know what kind of form players are in and I do think the tournaments played will have given us a good idea as to where the titles at the first Slam of the season will potentially end up.

Conditions in those tournaments are different to what we see in Melbourne, but my Outright Picks and Preview can be read below.


Before we get to that I have to say a few words about Andy Murray who may very easily decide to end his career at the end of his Australian Open.

A few days ago Murray admitted his hip injury has made it impossible for him to play without pain and even everyday life has become that much tougher for him. This was never going to be a situation where Murray would want to make up the numbers by being on Tour and it is little surprise to me that he would rather call it a day for his career than becoming a Doubles player or fighting it out on the grind of the ATP Tour without ever being a genuine threat to win another Grand Slam title.

Andy Murray might not be able to end his career on his own terms, but he should not be disappointed in what has been a career that has exceeded most expectations.

In an era along with Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer it is a credit to Murray that he has won three Grand Slam titles and ending the long wait for a British Wimbledon Champion was another huge achievement. In fact Murray won that twice and almost single-handedly helped Great Britain win the Davis Cup as well as adding two Singles Olympic Gold Medals to a very successful career.

Some will say Murray is 'Britain's Greatest Sportsman' and there will be an argument to be made for him, while he has become very popular even though he began his career as someone that many couldn't warm up to like they had for Tim Henman.

I will miss Andy Murray, but I don't think he will disappear.

After taking some time out, I can imagine the television cameras will want him to join their teams, while other players are surely going to want to bring him in as a potential Coach in the years ahead.

For now Murray should be very satisfied with how his career went and I would love for him to find a way to reach Wimbledon and end his career in the way he envisioned during his last training block.

That's the least Murray deserves, but no matter what I think he will know how thankful British fans and his fellow pros have been to witness his career.

And I will also say Thank You Andy if this is the way it is going to end.

Men's Draw

Twelve months ago Roger Federer defended the Australian Open title he won in 2017 and became a six time winner Down Under to join Roy Emerson and Novak Djokovic with that number of titles here.

It was another five set win for Federer in the final, but the veteran had a difficult last six months in the 2018 season which means he comes into this tournament as the Number 3 Seed. It is all relative to be honest as for most players Federer's season was good enough, but he is competing to win Grand Slam titles and failed to get beyond the Quarter Final at either Wimbledon or the US Open.

Roger Federer lands in the Third Quarter of the draw this week and his biggest rival is likely to be Marin Cilic who lost to Federer in the Final last year. There are also a couple of young talents in Karen Khachanov and Stefanos Tsitsipas who have both moved into the top 15 of the World Rankings after strong 2018 seasons.

Building on that is the next step for these players, but neither has reached the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam before and the Australian Open may not be the kind of conditions in which Khachanov or Tsitsipas will thrive in at this moment of their careers. Both players also have potentially awkward Third Round matches before they begin to face the big names in this Quarter of the draw and I would be surprised if one of the two Finalists from 2018 is not making the way through to the Semi Final.

Roger Federer and Marin Cilic do have a couple of obstacles to overcome but I think it is Federer who looks to have the better of the draws and he can return to the business end of a Grand Slam as he has in his last two visits here.

In fact I think Federer is the player most likely to reach the Final from the bottom half of the draw with the other big name in the section being Rafael Nadal.

However the Spaniard is still not looking like he is back at 100% from the injury that curtailed his 2018 season and the little tennis played ahead of the tournament has to be a concern. The draw is not the worst for Nadal, but Alex De Minaur could be a threat in the Third Round and the youngster may be looking to use the momentum of winning the title in Sydney to spark a big run in his home Grand Slam.

The man most likely to take advantage of any Nadal issues is Kevin Anderson as far as I am concerned with the South African playing some of the best tennis of his career in 2018. He reached the US Open Final in 2017 and also the Wimbledon Final in 2018 and Anderson has the kind of game that will put pressure on many opponents.

A fit Nadal would likely find a way to beat Anderson, but I like the way the draw could open up for him if the Spaniard was upset early. Even a potential Fourth Round match against John Isner or Grigor Dimitrov would not really put me off Anderson and I think he could be worth a small interest to win the Fourth Quarter.

While the bottom half has some quality players involved, I do think the top half is where the winner of this tournament will come from. The favourite and Number 1 Seed is Novak Djokovic and I am not too concerned with his defeat in Doha as that is a tournament in which he has not really thrived like he has in Australia.

Novak Djokovic won the last two Grand Slam titles and looked to be in great form being being beaten at the O2 Arena in the ATP World Tour Finals, but I think the conditions here suit him down to the ground. A former six time winner, Novak Djokovic has showed he can handle what can become very hot conditions in Australia and he is going to be the player to beat.

There are some quality players in his Quarter of the draw, but I think the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Kei Nishikori have issues to overcome to beat someone like Djokovic. The former was the Runner Up in Brisbane and still developing as a player, while Nishikori's record against Djokovic will be very hard to change in a best of five set scenario on a court the World Number 1 has loved.

The one player that most will be looking at to see if he can build on his successes of 2018 has to be Alexander Zverev and he is a potential Semi Final opponent for Novak Djokovic. The German won the ATP World Tour Finals to conclude the 2018 season, but failing to reach a Semi Final of any Grand Slam is a knock on Zverev and needs to be rectified in 2019.

He may not be fully fit at the moment, which is my one concern surrounding Zverev, but the draw potentially will open up for him. While there are some big names in this Quarter, Zverev won't really run into those until the Fourth Round and beyond by which time he could be the fresher player and able to take advantage for his best run in a Slam.

Before I am willing to back Zverev I do think he has to show he can handle the conditions in Australia and find his best tennis in a best of five set situation. The tournaments coming up later in 2019 may be more up Zverev's street and I can't even recommend him to reach a first Grand Slam Semi Final because of the potential matches the youngster is expected to face in the Fourth Round and Quarter Final.

Picking someone to oppose him in the section is not easy either because there are some tough matches to predict from the off and this might be the Quarter of the draw that produces the surprise player who makes a run at the Slams.

The break up of the Outright Picks are fairly boring to be perfectly honest, but it's about picking winners.

I am going to take both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer in the outright winner market with the latter each-way which will produce a profit as long as he reaches the Final.

I will also back Kevin Anderson to win the Fourth Quarter as I look for the best way to oppose Rafael Nadal.

Women's Draw

Ever since Serena Williams left the sport to give birth the Grand Slam events have been wide open on the women's side of things and this year's Australian Open looks to be no different.

The American is the favourite to win the tournament, but Serena Williams is a big price to do that and the American is one of just two women priced up at single digits to win the tournament.

Williams is in a loaded First Quarter of the draw with some of the top names in women's tennis and where some of the recent Grand Slam Champions reside. Simona Halep is the Number 1 Seed, Garbine Muguruza is a player who potentially can get very hot and run through a draw, Daria Kasatkina is consider the future, Karolina Pliskova has a big game that should be suited to the hard courts and only one of these players is going to make it through to the Semi Final.

I would have to draw a line through Halep, Muguruza and Kasatkina for different reasons, but Karolina Pliskova did win the title in Brisbane and has to have some confidence in having a big tournament. It would be a surprise if Pliskova is not able to get through to the Fourth Round without too many problems, but she can be hard to trust with her history in the Grand Slam tournaments and the 2018 numbers on the hard courts were not as impressive as I would like to see from a potential Slam winner.

In my opinion Serena Williams is going to be the player to beat having reached back to back Grand Slam Finals in 2018 and she should be well rested to find a way through the draw as she does. The last Grand Slam Serena won was here in Melbourne and I think she is every chance she does that again over the next two weeks.

There are more than a couple of players in the Second Quarter of the draw who will feel they can stop Serena Williams if they face her in the Semi Final. However the two leading names have to be the two highest Seeded players in the Quarter and that is Naomi Osaka and Elina Svitolina.

Naomi Osaka famously beat Serena Williams to win the US Open back in September, while Elina Svitolina won the WTA Finals in Singapore which is the biggest title of their careers respectively. Qiang Wang was in fine form over the last three months of the season and should be very happy in the conditions too and may be the player to beat out the top Seeds in this Quarter.

I think Wang could be the value at the prices to win the Second Quarter, but this is another portion of the draw which looks wide open and with serious contenders all over.

The bottom half of the draw is no different and again you can see a number of players that could have a huge two weeks without really being convinced by one over the others.

One of my favourite players coming into 2019 is Aryna Sabalenka who I've already stated as having the potential to become the best player to have come out of Belarus ahead of Victoria Azarenka. I was hoping Sabalenka would be flying under the radar a little bit, but the hype around her has made her third favourite to win the title here and I think that makes her a short price.

The draw hasn't helped with a potential Second Round match against Ekaterina Makarova and Fourth Round match against Petra Kvitova coming up and I will take a watching brief from the women's draw.

So many players have question marks around them throughout the draw that it does feel better to get involved on a match by match basis rather than in the outright markets.

Players like Angelique Kerber and Caroline Wozniacki won Grand Slam titles last season, but the former is with a new Coach now and didn't play well following her success at Wimbledon. The latter has injury concerns which may prevent Wozniacki from defending her title as effectively as she would like.

Ashleigh Barty will have home support and she did reach the Final in Sydney last week which will only increase the expectation around her. However that pressure has seen players crack previously and Barty is still someone who struggles against the very best players on the Tour and the women's draw looks wide open here.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic Win @ 2.25 Boyle Sports (3 Units)

Roger Federer Win @ 6.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit E/W)

Kevin Anderson to Win Fourth Quarter @ 5.50 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)

NFL Divisional Round Play Off Picks 2019 (January 12-13)

The NFL Play Offs continue this weekend in the final Saturday of the 2018 season when the Divisional Round is played.

Next week both Championship Games will be played on Sunday and two weeks after that we will see the Super Bowl and that means tensions are raised with teams now sensing an opportunity to win a ring.

All four Divisional Round Play Off games sees the home team favoured to win and all by big margins too, but the underdogs have been in fine form for twelve months in the Play Offs. These trends never last forever, but I am hoping there will be more of the same this weekend during the Divisional Round.


Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: We are down to the final eight teams in the NFL as the run towards the Super Bowl picks up steam with the beginning of four games from the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.

This looks like it has the potential to be a very special game when the Indianapolis Colts (11-6) go back on the road to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) who finished with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. All roads go through Arrowhead, but the Chiefs and Andy Reid have to overcome previous Play Off heartbreaks if they are going to progress to the Championship Game as is expected.

Patrick Mahomes is going to be the key for the Chiefs if they are going to win the Super Bowl and the young Quarter Back has stated that he is not worried about the Kansas City Play Off history as he wasn't involved in the negative results. However the fans will be edgy considering the Chiefs have had such a poor record in the post-season.

The fact that Kansas City are hosting arguably the hottest team in the AFC does not help and the Indianapolis Colts were dominant winners in the Wild Card Round when beating AFC South Champions Houston on the road. As the Number 6 Seed the Indianapolis Colts won't host a Play Off game, but they are playing with the confidence of having a host of wins behind them and the Colts also have Andrew Luck playing at close to his best from the Quarter Back position which could be all-important when it comes to a potential shoot-out.

It won't be all down to Luck's arm though as he will likely lean on Marlon Mack and the running game which was so effective in the win over Houston in the Wild Card Round. Mack should be ready to have another very good game in this one as Houston have struggled to contain the run for most of the season and won't be able to commit men to the line of scrimmage knowing how good Luck can be throwing the ball around.

Eric Berry's return has helped the Kansas City Secondary, but it looks like he won't be available for this game which makes it very difficult to know how the Chiefs are going to stop Indianapolis moving the ball in this one. Turnovers may be the biggest danger for Andrew Luck and his Offense, but he should have a clean pocket for much of this game and I can see Luck having a very big game as the Colts move the ball up and down the field both through the air and on the ground.

Mahomes has proven to be someone who can thrive in a shoot-out and he has the mentality of thriving rather than wilting in that situation. However this is a first start in a Play Off game which is always a different challenge to the regular season.

It does feel like this game is going to be on Mahomes' arm because the Colts Defensive Line can be very good at playing the run and the Kansas City Chiefs have not quite looked right there since Kareem Hunt was cut and Spencer Ware was injured.

Even then I would think Mahomes will have success in this Play Off game with the talent he has at Receiver and his own ability to find big plays. The Colts can get some pressure up front, but Kansas City should be able to give their Quarter Back time and Mahomes can also scramble and make plays on the run about as well as anybody in the NFL.

This does feel like a game where both teams will be able to move the ball Offensively, but I like the Colts balance and I think they can find a cover with the points they are being given. First time Quarter Backs in the Play Offs are just 4-16 against the spread as home favourites and Andrew Luck has the experience to put Indianapolis in a position to win this.

You can't ignore the fact that Andy Reid teams have lost their last four games when favoured at home in the Play Offs, while Kansas City are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five at home. Indianapolis have covered the spread in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and I do like the road underdog in this one.


Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: There may have been some reservations about two teams moving to Los Angeles in the NFL with the feeling that they would not be supported in the City of Angels, but both are in the Divisional Round of the NFL Play Offs and that should mean there is some excitement building. It is the Los Angeles Rams (13-3) who will get to play first this weekend as they host the Dallas Cowboys (11-6) and the Rams are looking to succeed where they failed last season.

It was Wild Card Weekend when the Rams were beaten here by the Atlanta Falcons twelve months ago so there may be some nerves as the team gets set to host this Play Off game. Investment in the summer was made in a bid to get Los Angeles over the edge and anything less than a Super Bowl appearance may be considered an underachievement for them.

Playing a team who have won eight of their last nine games including coming through a Play Off Round is never easy, but the Cowboys have to show they can compete effectively on the road. In 2018 they had a losing record on the road and Dallas are a team with a poor Play Off record over the last twenty-five years which suggests they have plenty to prove too.

Football is not played on paper, but you can't ignore how well it feels like the Dallas Cowboys will match up with the Los Angeles Rams.

Offensively the Cowboys are a team built to run the ball and it is impossible to gloss over the fact that the Los Angeles Rams gave up 5.1 yards per carry over the course of the season. Wade Phillips is a fantastic Defensive Co-Ordinator, but stopping the run has been an Achilles Heel for the former Dallas Head Coach and Ezekiel Elliot should be able to pick up from where he left off against the Seattle Seahawks on Wild Card Weekend.

The Rams Defensive Line does have some big time players on it, but they have to find a way to slow down Elliot who will be leaned on to control the clock as well as keep the Cowboys in third and manageable spots.

From there Dak Prescott, who has dismissed worries about an injury that may limit his ability to scramble, should also be able to make some plays. Amari Cooper could be covered up in the Secondary, but other players can step up for Prescott as long as Dallas are not stuck in third and long spots where they are simply not built to convert consistently.

Ezekiel Elliot is one of two big name Running Backs playing in this Divisional Round game as Todd Gurley looks to be healthy having missed the last couple of games in the regular season. Gurley has been a huge reason the Los Angeles Rams have been as effective Offensively as they have been, but running against the Dallas Defensive Line has proved to be a big challenge for many teams throughout the season and instead his biggest impact may come as a pass catcher coming out of the backfield.

Sean McVay is the kind of Offensive mind who will look to get Gurley going one way or another, but he will also ask Jared Goff to make some deep plays from the Quarter Back position. Goff tends to be well protected and the Dallas Secondary has given up some big plays, although the absence of Cooper Kuup continues to hinder the Rams from really coming back on track Offensively.

In saying that I do think the Rams will have some successes moving the ball too, but this still feels like too many points for the home team to be getting.

There are some trends that go against both teams but Jared Goff is just 4-11-1 against the spread in his career when playing against a team with a winning record. This season that number is 0-3-1 against the spread and this is a Rams team that tends to be dragged into close games.

In this case I expect the Cowboys to run them into a close game and I will take the points with the road underdog here.


Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots Pick: The schedule for the NFL Play Offs have not really been any help at all to the Los Angeles Chargers (13-4) who are once again in the early Eastern Time slot on Sunday in the Divisional Round. A reminder has to be given that this is essentially  10am start for the Chargers who had to play in the same time slot when they met the Baltimore Ravens on the East Coast during Wild Card Weekend, although it didn't prevent them from winning the game.

It was a tough battle against the Ravens, but the Chargers were deserved winners and now they have had to do a lot of travelling ahead of another meeting with the New England Patriots (11-5) in the post-season. The Chargers actually finished with a better regular season record than their hosts, but that counts for nothing in the Play Offs and Philip Rivers has never led his team to a win over the Patriots when Tom Brady has been at Quarter Back.

A big negative trend goes against the Chargers too which adds to the worry about this early kick off for the West Coast team. Any team that is playing a third consecutive road game in the Play Offs are just 20-37-2 against the trend in that game.

I have already picked the Indianapolis Colts to cover in that dynamic and I do think the Los Angeles Chargers can be the second team to overcome the trend. I can't help but be concerned that this early kick off coupled with all the recent travelling could leave them short, but Los Angeles should be looking to play hard for Captain Brandon Mebane who is back with the team in the week where his seven week old daughter passed away having had complications from her birth.

The Chargers have to go back to basics if they are going to win this and that means running the ball effectively and challenging the New England Defensive Line which has had problems for most of the season. Some of the recent Chargers numbers running the ball have been affected by the fact they played a strong team like the Baltimore Ravens twice, but Melvin Gordon is set to go and I would imagine there will be a big dose of the Running Back fed to the Patriots to try and open things up for Philip Rivers.

In recent games the Quarter Back has not been at his best, but he has been efficient and Rivers will feel he has the Receivers to make plays against the Patriots Secondary. There have been signs of improvement from New England on the back end of their Defensive unit, but it could mean a lot of one on one coverage if the Chargers are able to run the ball as they can.

There is some more concern with how many people have tried to draw a line through the New England Patriots and that makes this team dangerous. I have learned to never write them off, although there have been signs that the Brady era is very much closer to an end than it ever has been before.

Tom Brady has been playing with an injury by some accounts, but the Quarter Back's experience in the post-season can't be dismissed. It has been more of a struggle with Josh Gordon's off-field issues ending his season and Rob Gronkowski looking like a shadow of his former self, but New England are very tough to beat here in Foxboro and I expect them to have prepared very well through the Bye of the Wild Card Round.

The Patriots have a strong run game of their own which can make things much easier for Brady and leaning on Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead could be the way to go. It has to be said that the Chargers Defensive Line is an under-rated one and they have shown they can play the run very well, but this week they will be respecting the Quarter Back and that may mean a few more holes up front to be exploited.

I would expect Brady to have success throwing the ball, but the key to beating this Quarter Back in Play Offs past has been the ability to get pressure on him that does make Brady a touch jittery in the pocket. The Los Angeles Chargers have a very strong couple of Defensive Ends in Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa who can cause havoc up front and both will need to have a big game just to get Brady thinking about where the pressure is coming from.

That could be the key for the Los Angeles Chargers in trying to upset the odds and winning another tough road game on the East Coast.

The Chargers do have a miserable 0-4 record against the spread in their last four games against the New England Patriots, but they were very competitive in a loss here last season. Both teams have some very strong trends to lean on, but I think getting more than a Field Goal for Los Angeles is just appealing enough to be backed here.

It might need a backdoor cover and a clean game from Rivers to do that, but the Chargers are playing with confidence and belief and they do look capable of upsetting the odds for a second week in a row.


Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints Pick: You can't deny the feeling the Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) have to have after somehow coming through three games as the underdog to win the Super Bowl last season and continuing in that vain this time around. Maybe there really is some magic around Nick Foles who has been little more than a functional Quarter Back around the NFL before re-signing with the Philadelphia Eagles and turning into a player that won't let his team be beaten in the Play Offs.

The Eagles needed a big intervention at Soldier Field on Wild Card Weekend as a tipped Field Goal hit the post and the crossbar before rebounding back into play and helping Philadelphia edge out the Chicago Bears as another significant underdog. That is the case again in the Divisional Round as the Eagles face the daunting task of returning to the SuperDome where they were embarrassed in the regular season.

Now they have to deal with a well-rested New Orleans Saints (13-3) team who finished with the best record in the NFC which means they have home field advantage for as long as they remain in the Play Offs.

Key players were also given Week 17 off so there is perhaps some question as to whether the Saints are a little rusty facing a team who have essentially been playing Play Off Football for a number of weeks now.

Four wins in a row for the Eagles have come during a time when they were an underdog of 6.5 points and 13.5 points on the road and revenge is on the minds of the players who feel like New Orleans ran up the score. Nick Foles also didn't play in the regular season game and he has performed well enough for the Eagles to really believe he can make the difference despite the blow out nature of the first defeat.

Much of the pressure is going to be on Foles because the Eagles are going to have a very hard time running the ball against this Saints Defensive Line. Philadelphia really haven't found a consistent source of success on the ground anyway, but facing the Saints should only underline the point and that means the Quarter Back will have to drop back and look to make the big throws through the air.

Last week Foles made two errors with Interceptions, although only one of those was truly down to a poor decision on his part. He will feel his Offensive Tackles can at least give him time to make his throws, but both Jason Peters and Lane Johnson will be tested by the Saints' Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport who have been very good at getting to the Quarter Back for much of the season.

New Orleans will feel the Secondary have also been playing well enough to make some key stops through the air and it might be down to the Eagles Defensive unit to step up if they are going to knock the Saints off.

In recent games the Philadelphia much vaunted Defensive Line have stepped up their play and that has made it very difficult for teams to establish the run with consistency against them. Even the Bears had some problems so that will be a concern for the New Orleans Saints whose win against the Eagles in the regular season was sparked by the success that Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram were able to have on the ground.

Both players will still be leaned on this one and Kamara in particular is a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield. That may be a way to open things up on the Offensive Line, but New Orleans won't back away from the Eagles and Sean Payton will keep the Defensive unit as honest as possible.

The Eagles Defensive Line will also look to disrupt things up front with the strong pass rush they have been able to establish through four men. That is important for Philadelphia as it means they can drop more men into coverage and just challenge a New Orleans passing game which has not been playing at the level they were earlier in the season.

Drew Brees is still Drew Brees though and stopping the Saints completely is going to be very difficult, while the Eagles allowed Mitchell Trubisky to make some key throws through the air last week. Injuries in the Secondary haven't helped, but that makes even more important that the top players on the Defensive Line make things as awkward as possible for the Saints up front.

Philadelphia are in the same spot as the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers and that is playing their third consecutive road game inside the Play Offs where teams are 20-37-2 against the spread. The Eagles also have a poor 1-4 record against the spread in their last five games against the New Orleans Saints and I don't buy the 'magic' around a team who have had their fair share of luck in their last four Play Off games.

It is almost unimaginable that the Saints win by the margin they did in the regular season, but they should be well rested and I expect Drew Brees to have just enough time to carve up a banged up Philadelphia Secondary. In a shoot out I can't help but think Nick Foles makes a couple of big mistakes and that can see the Saints cover.

New Orleans have won all five Play Off games at home with Drew Brees at Quarter Back and those have come by an average of 11 points per game so I will look for the Saints to cover here and break what has been a strong run for the underdogs in the Play Offs over the last twelve months.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 4 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)