Australian Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2025 (Sunday 12th January)

The Tennis off-season is never very long, but this one has been filled with more headlines than either Tour would have liked.

The men's World Number 1 is still under investigation for a failed drugs test with some wanting Jannik Sinner to serve a proper suspension rather than what was offered up in 2024.

To make matters worse for the sport as a whole, it was announced that Iga Swiatek, the women's World Number 1, was also suspended for a month after failing a test of her own. However, that has not appeased anybody with many feeling that the Tour has not given the same type of suspension that so many lower Ranked players have had to suffer, while the fact the suspension had little actual impact of missing tournaments really has not helped anyone.

It is not a good look for a sport that has seen some of the biggest names move into retirement over the last couple of years and no one can be surprised that both World Number 1's have faced as much criticism as they have.

For some reason those who support Sinner and Swiatek have been surprised by the outrage, but even the most ardent of fans would admit that there has been a feeling of a different set of rules being applied to the best players and those further down the World Rankings. Even former Grand Slam Winner Simona Halep has been highly critical considering she served a much longer ban for what she feels is essentially an equivalent situation to Iga Swiatek.

The hope for those who love this sport is that the headlines at the first Grand Slam of the 2025 season will be made on the court and not off it.

Melbourne does produce some big tournaments and there is plenty of excitement with a Slam kicking off the year, as has become the norm.

Last year was a terrible season for the Tennis Picks and it all began at the Australian Open where the worst performance at any Grand Slam was recorded.

It wasn't bad, it was absolutely pathetic, and 2025 needs to start much better.

The rest of the season was not so bad, but recovering from that awful Australian Open 2024 was far too much to ask and that cannot happen again.

Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 games v Anca Alexia Todoni: 2024 will be remembered very positively by Qinwen Zheng after winning the Gold Medal at the Paris Olympics and reaching the Final of the Australian Open and the WTA Finals.

Twelve months ago, Qinwen Zheng would have entered the Australian Open as an outsider with her World Number 15 Rank, but expectations are certainly much larger going into this season. She is the World Number 5 in Melbourne in 2025, and fans will be expecting this player to take the next step in her development and that is by winning a Grand Slam title.

She faces a Qualifier in her first match in Melbourne and her first professional match in 2025 and Qinwen Zheng is unsurprisingly a big favourite.

The hard court numbers produced in 2024 are certainly encouraging and Qinwen Zheng is a player that can dominate behind serve and build scoreboard pressure. There is always room for improvement though and that really needs to be on the return of serve with Zheng winning 43% of return points played on the surface, a number that can be improved by someone who is now entrenched in the top ten of the World Rankings, albeit with plenty of points to defend over the next fortnight.

Her first opponent is the 20 year old Qualifier from Romania, although Anca Alexia Todoni deserves her respect after a positive start to 2025. Winning matches breeds confidence and Todoni has won three already to earn a spot in the main draw in Melbourne, while the Romanian won three matches in Brisbane in a warm up event before being ousted by Linda Noskova.

It is fair to point out that Anca Alexia Todoni is only playing her second opponent from within the top 100 when facing last year's Australian Open Runner Up and the loss to Linda Noskova was pretty straight-forward.

The favoured domain is the clay courts, and Anca Alexia Todoni remains a touch inexperienced which may work against her here.

She does hold a 6-4 record against top 100 Ranked opponents on all surfaces in her career, but that drops to 1-2 when considering non-clay court events. The younger players can serve well enough to at least give Qinwen Zheng something to think about, but the reality is that this is a big step up and the opening selection from the Australian Open in 2025 is backing the World Number 5 to secure a relatively comfortable pathway through to the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Qinwen Zheng - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 BetFred (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (January 12-14)

It has been a hectic couple of weeks in my personal life which meant it was not possible to put up a thread over the festive period, but things have settled down again and we are going into another round of Premier League games and another GameWeek in the FPL game.

The last couple of weeks have seen steady scores from my team, but it has not been as smooth as I would have liked and much is down to the uncertainty of this season with late postponements making things a little more awkward to manage.

I will have further thoughts on that below, but first you can read my thoughts on the six Premier League games that are to be played over the next three days.

Sheffield United v Newcastle United Pick: The Premier League is back on Tuesday and there are fixtures to be played virtually every day through to the following Thursday ahead of the FA Cup Fourth Round weekend.

With Covid-19 cases on the rise throughout England, there is a need for flexible scheduling although the feeling remains that elite sport will not need to be postponed.

It does mean that fixtures are likely to be changed at short notice, especially with no fans being allowed into Stadiums, but that does also make it difficult for players and managers to prepare as they would like.

At least Chris Wilder and Steve Bruce would have been well aware of this fixture on Tuesday which looks a big one for both Sheffield United and Newcastle United. The latter were knocked out of the FA Cup on Saturday and have been in poor form, while the former are trying to use their Third Round Cup win as a spark for their Premier League form.

Wilder is definitely going to be more disappointed with the League form that Sheffield United have displayed compared with Steve Bruce and Newcastle United. It looks a long road back to avoid relegation, but Chris Wilder is still being supported by the board and the players although he needs results not pats on the back.

A win on Tuesday will at least give Sheffield United some belief to take into fixtures going forward, but it won't be easy as they continue to struggle in front of goal. For all the criticism of Newcastle United's recent results, they have defended pretty well and they should make life tough for their hosts.

However Newcastle United have also struggled for goals having failed to score in their last 3 away games in all competitions. The last two of those have been at tough grounds against Manchester City and Arsenal, but it chances are not being created in abundance and the feeling is that this is a fixture that may see one of the teams fail to score.

Both should feel like they can pose a threat from set pieces and look to pressure the other with some pace on the counter, but both League games last season finished with one failing to score (both Sheffield United in the 2019/20 season) and I do think a lack of goals could be the outcome of this Premier League fixture where the first goal could prove to be the winner.

Burnley v Manchester United Pick: There are plenty of things that have occurred over the last twelve months that many would not have believed if you had told them what was to come in January 2020.

For those leaving Old Trafford on the night of the 22nd January 2020 there must have been a feeling that Manchester United were a long way away from where they wanted to be. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was under intense pressure after a 0-2 home defeat to Burnley and Manchester United had played two more games than leaders Liverpool, but were a mammoth 30 points behind their great rivals.

Flash forward to the 12th of January 2021 and Manchester United could finish the night top of the Premier League table if they can earn a measure of revenge over Burnley, albeit this time at Turf Moor. Any point earned would mean Manchester United will make the short journey to Anfield on Sunday as the Premier League leaders and that is a remarkable position considering where the side were just a couple of months ago.

Much of that is down to a very competitive Premier League in what has been a strange season, but no one associated with Manchester United will care as they feel their decision to stick with the manager has been vindicated.

However it does have to be said that this is a fine line the club are treading and you would see a totally different narrative if Manchester United are to lose their next 3 League games which are all played away from home. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is not getting carried away with the League position in January and it is important for Manchester United to give Burnley all the respect they deserve.

Burnley have been in decent form for a number of weeks and the side have won 3 of their last 4 Premier League games at home. A new owner is promising a bright future for Burnley, but those recent solid results at Turf Moor have come against clubs that are not competing at the top of the Premier League.

Sean Dyche himself has admitted this is a much bigger challenge for Burnley who have a few injuries to contend with. They have also struggled to compete with the top clubs in the last couple of years and that has seen some comfortable home defeats to the likes of Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur.

Manchester United have a good record here and I do think they score too many goals for the hosts to stay with a team looking to move to the top of the table. The side have scored at least twice in 16 of their last 17 away games in all competitions and Manchester United had scored at least three away goals in every Premier League game this season before the 2-2 draw with Leicester City.

I do have to respect the Burnley results of late, but Everton created a lot of chances here and deserved more than they got. I expect the home team to cause problems from set pieces and they will be putting a lot into this fixture which will make them push Manchester United, but I do think the recent results of the visitors makes them a strong enough favourite here.

4 of the 7 away Premier League games played by Manchester United have ended in either a draw or a win by a single goal margin, but 3 of their last 4 wins at Burnley have come by at least two goal margins.

Over the last eighteen months Burnley have lost 13 home games in all competitions and 8 of those have come by two or more goal margins. I will back Manchester United on the Asian Handicap to add to that here.

Wolves v Everton Pick: This looks to be a really difficult game to call between two clubs who will feel they should be operating much higher up the League standings in the weeks and months ahead.

Injuries makes the fixture more uncertain and I think you could make a serious argument for any of the three results- Wolves should feel good playing at home having won their FA Cup Third Round tie against Crystal Palace here last week. They have also beaten Chelsea in recent weeks at Molineux, but Everton have produced their better results away from home over the last couple of months.

However it sounds like Dominic Calvert-Lewin will be missing and that is a big issue for Everton.

He has been leading the line very well for Everton all season and I do think the drop to Cenk Tosun is a considerable one.

With that in mind I do give a narrow edge to Wolves, but they are not the same team without Raul Jimenez and the best approach may be to give this one a wide berth.

Manchester City v Brighton Pick: If you are a Manchester City fan (and I've been told there are a few out there) you have to be really happy with where the team sits as we move into the second week of the 2021 calendar year.

While the media will focus on the likes of Liverpool and Manchester United ahead of a big game between those great rivals this weekend, Manchester City can move right behind the leading teams in the Premier League in the next eight days.

They play three home games in that time and Manchester City will believe they may even end up top of the pile by the end of those if they can secure three wins. No one associated within the dressing room will be looking too far ahead and Manchester City are trying to take it game by game as they look to put wins together and keep the momentum behind them.

I would expect Manchester City to be too strong for Brighton on Wednesday even though Graham Potter's team have only lost 1 of their last 5 away games in all competitions. The absence of Yves Bissouma looks a tough one for Brighton and you would not be massively surprised if Graham Potter chooses not to risk any players who are doubtful with a 'more winnable' game at Leeds United to come this weekend.

The style of play that Potter has implemented does make it easier for the bigger teams to play against Brighton and Manchester City's two heavy wins over them last season almost underlines that point. Top teams have found goals easy to come by against Brighton, although the style does mean that Brighton will try and get forward and score goals and they are more dangerous even against the better teams.

However I am not sure they will find much joy out of this Manchester City team who have been very good defensively since partnering Ruben Dias with John Stones at the heart of the defence. Ederson is likely going to be back in goal on Wednesday too and I think Manchester City should have enough to break down Brighton and then keep the backdoor tightly locked too.

Brighton could be a threat from set pieces, but Manchester City are not giving up too many chances and backing the home team to win with a clean sheet looks the right approach.

Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham Pick: This fixture was originally scheduled for last month, but a Covid-19 outbreak at Fulham meant a late postponement.

Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham have been given late notice that they will have to meet this week after the outbreak at Aston Villa meant their Premier League fixture against Spurs had to be postponed.

It is not ideal for the preparation of either set of players but the season is one in which you can't afford to kick postponements down the road and hope there will be spaces in the calendar to re-arrange fixtures. Jose Mourinho made it clear that Tottenham Hotspur were running out of space and he would not want to be forced to play three times in six days and so this decision was made on Monday to have one of their three postponed fixtures given this new date.

They were due to meet only a couple of weeks ago so a lot of the preparation would already have been done and within recent memory. That should help, but it is still a difficult spot for any players to be in although one they will just have to deal with.

Both teams progressed in the FA Cup while resting a number of key players and that should help the managers.

You do have to respect how well Fulham have been playing under Scott Parker over the last month and they have been difficult to beat. That will be an issue for Tottenham Hotspur, but I do think Spurs have come out of a difficult period and look to have more momentum behind them.

Tottenham Hotspur have been particularly good at home and I do think they have rested key players who will be keen to get on the front foot here. Even with the improvements made by Fulham, they are still a team who do give up some big chances and I think Tottenham Hotspur will be able to take advantage of that at home where they have won 8 of their last 9 games in all competitions.

The victory over Brentford in the League Cup shows that Tottenham Hotspur should be able to deal with a team of Fulham's level, but it will be important for Jose Mourinho's team to score first and then capitalise on spaces that may open up. They should be too good when it is all said and done and I think Spurs will likely be able to win by a comfortable margin on the night.

Arsenal v Crystal Palace Pick: In this season I do think momentum is going to be important and Arsenal have that with 4 wins in a row after a really poor few weeks.

Mikel Arteta will feel there is a real chance for Arsenal to keep that momentum going with consecutive home fixtures to come against Crystal Palace and Newcastle United. Arsenal will be favoured to win both of those games, but that brings a pressure of its own and Newcastle United showed in the Cup game that this is a team still learning and one that can be kept at arm's length if you are well organised defensively.

That is exactly what Crystal Palace should bring to the table under Roy Hodgson even if they have been in poor form of late and conceding chances and goals like it is going out of fashion.

Having an almost full week to prepare should mean Hodgson has had time to bring back some key personnel who will make Crystal Palace a little better organised defensively, while The Eagles have pace and quality in the forward areas that should make them very dangerous on the counter attack.

In the last couple of seasons that has helped Crystal Palace produce two big results at the Emirates Stadium and I think they have the chance to earn another one here.

A lack of goals is a slight concern, while Crystal Palace have suffered some heavy away losses at Chelsea and Aston Villa in the Premier League. However both of those teams are much higher up the League standings than Arsenal who have only won 1 of their last 5 at the Emirates Stadium and might be a little overrated thanks to a narrow win at Brighton and the comfortable result at West Brom.

Yes, they did beat Chelsea in their last League game here, but I would expect Crystal Palace to cause problems of their own and backing them on the start on the Asian Handicap looks the approach to this fixture. Over the last three seasons Crystal Palace have tended to give some of the better teams troubles when visiting them and they are also capable of scoring here having had plenty of time to rest and prepare.

With the results at this Stadium in mind, I think Roy Hodgson's men can earn the upset result on Thursday.

MY PICKS: Sheffield United-Newcastle United BTTS NO

Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Manchester City Win to Nil

Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap

Crystal Palace + 1 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 18

This is a season in which the best laid plans can quickly turn to dust and that has been the situation for my Fantasy team over the next two GameWeeks.

A few weeks ago I mentioned I would likely going into GW18 with between 9-11 players in action and I would then potentially Bench Boost in GW19 with all of my players expected to play twice.

However this is a Covid-19 affected season and it has meant late postponements and games being shifted at short notice. That has been the case in GW18 with the Aston Villa vs Tottenham Hotspur game being postponed after the home team became the latest Premier League club affected by a major outbreak of Coronavirus meaning a huge portion of their first team have been forced into self-isolation.

On the face of things bringing the Tottenham Hotspur vs Fulham game into the GW made a lot of sense for the Premier League, but it has not had a huge impact for me.

If the Aston Villa-Tottenham Hotspur game had gone ahead I would have had four players in action, but that has been halved with the postponement. It also means I have only six players involved in the six players this week and has made the Free Hit Chip look a better play even though I would have preferred to keep that aside for later in the season.

A week I had been targeting to use the Free Hit would have been one of the late DGWs that we usually get, while another play would have been FA Cup Quarter Final weekend. After the draw for the next two Rounds of the FA Cup were made, I could see as many as seven Premier League games being postponed in GW29, while that would also mean a number of fixtures that would need to be re-arranged later in the season.

It is going to be possible to prepare for that week with the transfers in the weeks between the FA Cup Fifth and Sixth Round, but it makes things more awkward and the second Wild Card looks to be a vital chip going forward.

The use of the Bench Boost will almost certainly be used later in the season when the Wild Card is activated to make sure of the DGWs that are left, especially with news that the Leeds United vs Southampton game that was due to be played next week is likely going to be shifted to make space for a Southampton postponed FA Cup Third Round tie.

In the next thread I will have a look at where some of the upcoming postponed games will land, while I also think this is a good time to keep an eye on the FA Cup runs that teams are likely to have in order to prepare best for later in the season.

So what are my plans for GW18? It will either be taking a four point loss and adding two players to the squad to take me up to eight players that will be eligible to play and keep the Free Hit for another time, or activating the Free Hit and then likely taking at least one hit in GW19 to try and have as many players on the DGW as possible.

It is one I will likely think about down to the deadline with an idea of what a Free Hit team would look like this week, but also with the thoughts still running about whether the chip is more valuable later in the season.

I know there is a consensus around that the FH is the play this midweek, but I still want to take care before making my final decision with key players from the favourites already in my team. My feeling is that I could have another solid asset or two with the FH activated, but it may not be as important as keeping the powder dry for later in the season when postponements may be easier to predict as the vaccination is rolled out around the United Kingdom and the warmer conditions prevents the transmission at the rate we are seeing now.

NFL Divisional Round Play Off Picks 2019 (January 12-13)

The NFL Play Offs continue this weekend in the final Saturday of the 2018 season when the Divisional Round is played.

Next week both Championship Games will be played on Sunday and two weeks after that we will see the Super Bowl and that means tensions are raised with teams now sensing an opportunity to win a ring.

All four Divisional Round Play Off games sees the home team favoured to win and all by big margins too, but the underdogs have been in fine form for twelve months in the Play Offs. These trends never last forever, but I am hoping there will be more of the same this weekend during the Divisional Round.


Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: We are down to the final eight teams in the NFL as the run towards the Super Bowl picks up steam with the beginning of four games from the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.

This looks like it has the potential to be a very special game when the Indianapolis Colts (11-6) go back on the road to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) who finished with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. All roads go through Arrowhead, but the Chiefs and Andy Reid have to overcome previous Play Off heartbreaks if they are going to progress to the Championship Game as is expected.

Patrick Mahomes is going to be the key for the Chiefs if they are going to win the Super Bowl and the young Quarter Back has stated that he is not worried about the Kansas City Play Off history as he wasn't involved in the negative results. However the fans will be edgy considering the Chiefs have had such a poor record in the post-season.

The fact that Kansas City are hosting arguably the hottest team in the AFC does not help and the Indianapolis Colts were dominant winners in the Wild Card Round when beating AFC South Champions Houston on the road. As the Number 6 Seed the Indianapolis Colts won't host a Play Off game, but they are playing with the confidence of having a host of wins behind them and the Colts also have Andrew Luck playing at close to his best from the Quarter Back position which could be all-important when it comes to a potential shoot-out.

It won't be all down to Luck's arm though as he will likely lean on Marlon Mack and the running game which was so effective in the win over Houston in the Wild Card Round. Mack should be ready to have another very good game in this one as Houston have struggled to contain the run for most of the season and won't be able to commit men to the line of scrimmage knowing how good Luck can be throwing the ball around.

Eric Berry's return has helped the Kansas City Secondary, but it looks like he won't be available for this game which makes it very difficult to know how the Chiefs are going to stop Indianapolis moving the ball in this one. Turnovers may be the biggest danger for Andrew Luck and his Offense, but he should have a clean pocket for much of this game and I can see Luck having a very big game as the Colts move the ball up and down the field both through the air and on the ground.

Mahomes has proven to be someone who can thrive in a shoot-out and he has the mentality of thriving rather than wilting in that situation. However this is a first start in a Play Off game which is always a different challenge to the regular season.

It does feel like this game is going to be on Mahomes' arm because the Colts Defensive Line can be very good at playing the run and the Kansas City Chiefs have not quite looked right there since Kareem Hunt was cut and Spencer Ware was injured.

Even then I would think Mahomes will have success in this Play Off game with the talent he has at Receiver and his own ability to find big plays. The Colts can get some pressure up front, but Kansas City should be able to give their Quarter Back time and Mahomes can also scramble and make plays on the run about as well as anybody in the NFL.

This does feel like a game where both teams will be able to move the ball Offensively, but I like the Colts balance and I think they can find a cover with the points they are being given. First time Quarter Backs in the Play Offs are just 4-16 against the spread as home favourites and Andrew Luck has the experience to put Indianapolis in a position to win this.

You can't ignore the fact that Andy Reid teams have lost their last four games when favoured at home in the Play Offs, while Kansas City are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five at home. Indianapolis have covered the spread in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and I do like the road underdog in this one.


Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: There may have been some reservations about two teams moving to Los Angeles in the NFL with the feeling that they would not be supported in the City of Angels, but both are in the Divisional Round of the NFL Play Offs and that should mean there is some excitement building. It is the Los Angeles Rams (13-3) who will get to play first this weekend as they host the Dallas Cowboys (11-6) and the Rams are looking to succeed where they failed last season.

It was Wild Card Weekend when the Rams were beaten here by the Atlanta Falcons twelve months ago so there may be some nerves as the team gets set to host this Play Off game. Investment in the summer was made in a bid to get Los Angeles over the edge and anything less than a Super Bowl appearance may be considered an underachievement for them.

Playing a team who have won eight of their last nine games including coming through a Play Off Round is never easy, but the Cowboys have to show they can compete effectively on the road. In 2018 they had a losing record on the road and Dallas are a team with a poor Play Off record over the last twenty-five years which suggests they have plenty to prove too.

Football is not played on paper, but you can't ignore how well it feels like the Dallas Cowboys will match up with the Los Angeles Rams.

Offensively the Cowboys are a team built to run the ball and it is impossible to gloss over the fact that the Los Angeles Rams gave up 5.1 yards per carry over the course of the season. Wade Phillips is a fantastic Defensive Co-Ordinator, but stopping the run has been an Achilles Heel for the former Dallas Head Coach and Ezekiel Elliot should be able to pick up from where he left off against the Seattle Seahawks on Wild Card Weekend.

The Rams Defensive Line does have some big time players on it, but they have to find a way to slow down Elliot who will be leaned on to control the clock as well as keep the Cowboys in third and manageable spots.

From there Dak Prescott, who has dismissed worries about an injury that may limit his ability to scramble, should also be able to make some plays. Amari Cooper could be covered up in the Secondary, but other players can step up for Prescott as long as Dallas are not stuck in third and long spots where they are simply not built to convert consistently.

Ezekiel Elliot is one of two big name Running Backs playing in this Divisional Round game as Todd Gurley looks to be healthy having missed the last couple of games in the regular season. Gurley has been a huge reason the Los Angeles Rams have been as effective Offensively as they have been, but running against the Dallas Defensive Line has proved to be a big challenge for many teams throughout the season and instead his biggest impact may come as a pass catcher coming out of the backfield.

Sean McVay is the kind of Offensive mind who will look to get Gurley going one way or another, but he will also ask Jared Goff to make some deep plays from the Quarter Back position. Goff tends to be well protected and the Dallas Secondary has given up some big plays, although the absence of Cooper Kuup continues to hinder the Rams from really coming back on track Offensively.

In saying that I do think the Rams will have some successes moving the ball too, but this still feels like too many points for the home team to be getting.

There are some trends that go against both teams but Jared Goff is just 4-11-1 against the spread in his career when playing against a team with a winning record. This season that number is 0-3-1 against the spread and this is a Rams team that tends to be dragged into close games.

In this case I expect the Cowboys to run them into a close game and I will take the points with the road underdog here.


Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots Pick: The schedule for the NFL Play Offs have not really been any help at all to the Los Angeles Chargers (13-4) who are once again in the early Eastern Time slot on Sunday in the Divisional Round. A reminder has to be given that this is essentially  10am start for the Chargers who had to play in the same time slot when they met the Baltimore Ravens on the East Coast during Wild Card Weekend, although it didn't prevent them from winning the game.

It was a tough battle against the Ravens, but the Chargers were deserved winners and now they have had to do a lot of travelling ahead of another meeting with the New England Patriots (11-5) in the post-season. The Chargers actually finished with a better regular season record than their hosts, but that counts for nothing in the Play Offs and Philip Rivers has never led his team to a win over the Patriots when Tom Brady has been at Quarter Back.

A big negative trend goes against the Chargers too which adds to the worry about this early kick off for the West Coast team. Any team that is playing a third consecutive road game in the Play Offs are just 20-37-2 against the trend in that game.

I have already picked the Indianapolis Colts to cover in that dynamic and I do think the Los Angeles Chargers can be the second team to overcome the trend. I can't help but be concerned that this early kick off coupled with all the recent travelling could leave them short, but Los Angeles should be looking to play hard for Captain Brandon Mebane who is back with the team in the week where his seven week old daughter passed away having had complications from her birth.

The Chargers have to go back to basics if they are going to win this and that means running the ball effectively and challenging the New England Defensive Line which has had problems for most of the season. Some of the recent Chargers numbers running the ball have been affected by the fact they played a strong team like the Baltimore Ravens twice, but Melvin Gordon is set to go and I would imagine there will be a big dose of the Running Back fed to the Patriots to try and open things up for Philip Rivers.

In recent games the Quarter Back has not been at his best, but he has been efficient and Rivers will feel he has the Receivers to make plays against the Patriots Secondary. There have been signs of improvement from New England on the back end of their Defensive unit, but it could mean a lot of one on one coverage if the Chargers are able to run the ball as they can.

There is some more concern with how many people have tried to draw a line through the New England Patriots and that makes this team dangerous. I have learned to never write them off, although there have been signs that the Brady era is very much closer to an end than it ever has been before.

Tom Brady has been playing with an injury by some accounts, but the Quarter Back's experience in the post-season can't be dismissed. It has been more of a struggle with Josh Gordon's off-field issues ending his season and Rob Gronkowski looking like a shadow of his former self, but New England are very tough to beat here in Foxboro and I expect them to have prepared very well through the Bye of the Wild Card Round.

The Patriots have a strong run game of their own which can make things much easier for Brady and leaning on Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead could be the way to go. It has to be said that the Chargers Defensive Line is an under-rated one and they have shown they can play the run very well, but this week they will be respecting the Quarter Back and that may mean a few more holes up front to be exploited.

I would expect Brady to have success throwing the ball, but the key to beating this Quarter Back in Play Offs past has been the ability to get pressure on him that does make Brady a touch jittery in the pocket. The Los Angeles Chargers have a very strong couple of Defensive Ends in Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa who can cause havoc up front and both will need to have a big game just to get Brady thinking about where the pressure is coming from.

That could be the key for the Los Angeles Chargers in trying to upset the odds and winning another tough road game on the East Coast.

The Chargers do have a miserable 0-4 record against the spread in their last four games against the New England Patriots, but they were very competitive in a loss here last season. Both teams have some very strong trends to lean on, but I think getting more than a Field Goal for Los Angeles is just appealing enough to be backed here.

It might need a backdoor cover and a clean game from Rivers to do that, but the Chargers are playing with confidence and belief and they do look capable of upsetting the odds for a second week in a row.


Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints Pick: You can't deny the feeling the Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) have to have after somehow coming through three games as the underdog to win the Super Bowl last season and continuing in that vain this time around. Maybe there really is some magic around Nick Foles who has been little more than a functional Quarter Back around the NFL before re-signing with the Philadelphia Eagles and turning into a player that won't let his team be beaten in the Play Offs.

The Eagles needed a big intervention at Soldier Field on Wild Card Weekend as a tipped Field Goal hit the post and the crossbar before rebounding back into play and helping Philadelphia edge out the Chicago Bears as another significant underdog. That is the case again in the Divisional Round as the Eagles face the daunting task of returning to the SuperDome where they were embarrassed in the regular season.

Now they have to deal with a well-rested New Orleans Saints (13-3) team who finished with the best record in the NFC which means they have home field advantage for as long as they remain in the Play Offs.

Key players were also given Week 17 off so there is perhaps some question as to whether the Saints are a little rusty facing a team who have essentially been playing Play Off Football for a number of weeks now.

Four wins in a row for the Eagles have come during a time when they were an underdog of 6.5 points and 13.5 points on the road and revenge is on the minds of the players who feel like New Orleans ran up the score. Nick Foles also didn't play in the regular season game and he has performed well enough for the Eagles to really believe he can make the difference despite the blow out nature of the first defeat.

Much of the pressure is going to be on Foles because the Eagles are going to have a very hard time running the ball against this Saints Defensive Line. Philadelphia really haven't found a consistent source of success on the ground anyway, but facing the Saints should only underline the point and that means the Quarter Back will have to drop back and look to make the big throws through the air.

Last week Foles made two errors with Interceptions, although only one of those was truly down to a poor decision on his part. He will feel his Offensive Tackles can at least give him time to make his throws, but both Jason Peters and Lane Johnson will be tested by the Saints' Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport who have been very good at getting to the Quarter Back for much of the season.

New Orleans will feel the Secondary have also been playing well enough to make some key stops through the air and it might be down to the Eagles Defensive unit to step up if they are going to knock the Saints off.

In recent games the Philadelphia much vaunted Defensive Line have stepped up their play and that has made it very difficult for teams to establish the run with consistency against them. Even the Bears had some problems so that will be a concern for the New Orleans Saints whose win against the Eagles in the regular season was sparked by the success that Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram were able to have on the ground.

Both players will still be leaned on this one and Kamara in particular is a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield. That may be a way to open things up on the Offensive Line, but New Orleans won't back away from the Eagles and Sean Payton will keep the Defensive unit as honest as possible.

The Eagles Defensive Line will also look to disrupt things up front with the strong pass rush they have been able to establish through four men. That is important for Philadelphia as it means they can drop more men into coverage and just challenge a New Orleans passing game which has not been playing at the level they were earlier in the season.

Drew Brees is still Drew Brees though and stopping the Saints completely is going to be very difficult, while the Eagles allowed Mitchell Trubisky to make some key throws through the air last week. Injuries in the Secondary haven't helped, but that makes even more important that the top players on the Defensive Line make things as awkward as possible for the Saints up front.

Philadelphia are in the same spot as the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers and that is playing their third consecutive road game inside the Play Offs where teams are 20-37-2 against the spread. The Eagles also have a poor 1-4 record against the spread in their last five games against the New Orleans Saints and I don't buy the 'magic' around a team who have had their fair share of luck in their last four Play Off games.

It is almost unimaginable that the Saints win by the margin they did in the regular season, but they should be well rested and I expect Drew Brees to have just enough time to carve up a banged up Philadelphia Secondary. In a shoot out I can't help but think Nick Foles makes a couple of big mistakes and that can see the Saints cover.

New Orleans have won all five Play Off games at home with Drew Brees at Quarter Back and those have come by an average of 11 points per game so I will look for the Saints to cover here and break what has been a strong run for the underdogs in the Play Offs over the last twelve months.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 4 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2019 (January 12-14)

The Premier League is back after the break for the FA Cup Third Round and the fixtures come thick and fast through the remainder of this month.

We might be almost halfway through January, but there are still three rounds of Premier League fixtures scheduled to be played, while the FA Cup Fourth Round also takes place. It is a difficult time for teams as we begin to settle into a portion of the season where silverware is handed out,

My Fantasy Football selections will also be in this thread and I will urge some caution as teams continue to rotate their starting elevens to make sure players are as fresh as possible. I will factor that into my selections as we get for a weekend where Premier League games are played from Saturday lunchtime through to Monday evening.


West Ham United v Arsenal Pick: The Premier League returns from a short break for the FA Cup and the round of fixtures opens with a fascinating London derby between West Ham United and Arsenal hosted at the London Stadium.

It looks like having the potential of being a decent game of football and the layers are taking no chances in this one with the price on both teams to score and over 2.5 goals both very short indeed.

To be honest I was more surprised that Arsenal are considered such strong favourites to win at a ground where Manchester United and Chelsea have both failed to this season. Since then both Manchester City and Tottenham Hotspur have won League games at the London Stadium, but Arsenal are not exactly in the best of form with a single win from 6 away Premier League games.

West Ham United might not be in tremendous form of their own, but they have shown they can score goals at home and even the recovery of a number of injured Arsenal defenders is not enough for me to favour the visitors here. The Gunners have not won on 2 of their last 3 trips to West Ham United and I do think they remain vulnerable defensively with the way Unai Emery sets his team up to play.

In saying that Emery's tactics have also put Arsenal in a very strong position going forward and they are a team that can score plenty of goals when at their best. We just haven't seen enough of that of late and I do think Arsenal are simply not having the same kind of fortune in recent weeks as they enjoyed in their long unbeaten run earlier in the season.

I expect West Ham United to challenge their visitors and I do think they can earn a positive result. Beating Arsenal at home for the first time since November 2006 might not be as far fetched as the layers seem to think, but I will just look to get behind the home team to avoid defeat at a decent looking price here.

Fantasy Star: Felipe Anderson- I would have picked Marko Arnautovic here, but the Austrian's head has been turned by a bid from a Chinese club. Someone can still take advantage of the Arsenal defensive struggles and Felipe Anderson has been in fine form for the home team.

Alternative: Aaron Ramsey- a potentially cheap way to get into the Arsenal team who have scored plenty of goals. The Welshman has been rumoured to have agreed a move to Juventus, but Unai Emery expects to see the best of Ramsey until he leaves.


Brighton v Liverpool Pick: Last season everyone wondered how Manchester City would react when they were finally beaten in the Premier League by Liverpool at Anfield in January and it turned out that it was merely a very, very slight blip on the way to winning the title.

This season the question is asked of Liverpool who saw their unbeaten run to the Premier League season ended in their last game in the competition at Manchester City ten days ago. Going out of the FA Cup in the Third Round at Wolves has only increased the importance of Liverpool responding to their League defeat in the right way and that is by winning here.

Liverpool are big favourites to do that, but I think the layers are just anticipating this team being a popular accumulator choice and they look short to say the least.

The defensive injuries means Fabinho could be employed as a makeshift centre half for this game and Brighton have come on leaps and bounds over the last eighteen months in the Premier League.

In the first six months in the top flight, Chris Hughton's men struggled against the top teams in the Premier League, but they do look much more comfortable now.

The results seem to back that up- in the 2017/18 season, Brighton were beaten by two or more goals by Chelsea (twice), Liverpool (twice), Manchester City (twice) and Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur one time each.

This season only Manchester City have been able to do that against Brighton and The Seagulls have been much more competitive against the top teams.

At home it has been better with Brighton losing narrowly to Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea, but earning a draw with Arsenal and beating Manchester United. They will look to cause problems for Liverpool, but defensively Brighton are a little better in these big games than they were and this Liverpool team can be more functional than explosive this season.

5 of Liverpool's 8 away wins in the League have come by two or more goals, but the defensive injuries may mean the manager is a little less inclined to leave his team short at the back. It may mean a tough battle awaits Liverpool and I think they may have to settle for a narrow win if Brighton do not get blown away early in the contest.

Backing the home team with more than a goal start looks appealing here considering the improvements Brighton have made at the Amex Stadium over the last twelve months.

Fantasy Star: Glenn Murray- maybe this has something to do with wanting to see Liverpool continue their blip, but the striker may be best placed to take advantage of the centre back issues for Liverpool.

Alternative: Roberto Firmino- this is a tough place to visit, but Roberto Firmino can prove to be the difference maker at a much cheaper price than Mohamed Salah.


Burnley v Fulham Pick: With 17 Premier League games left to play it is not an understatement to say this is a huge game for both Burnley and Fulham as the two clubs search for a way to avoid relegation into the Championship.

Points have been very hard to come by for both clubs through the first half of the season so fixtures against relegation rivals only increase in importance. It won't be lost on the home fans that a win for Burnley would mean they are 7 points clear of Fulham and could be a huge advantage even in January.

On the other hand a win for Fulham would leave a single point between these clubs so there is plenty on the line for both as Sean Dyche and Claudio Ranieri plot a way to help their clubs succeed.

The momentum is behind Burnley who have won 3 in a row including back to back Premier League games while getting back to basics defensively. Burnley have had 3 clean sheets in their last 4 home games and all of those games have ended in wins which was the formula for the success earned twelve months ago.

Now they face a goal-shy Fulham team who are coming in off an upset home defeat to Oldham Athletic in the FA Cup Third Round. Claudio Ranieri is asking for new players and he sounds like he can't get a consistent tune out of those at the club which puts his players under pressure to perform.

Ranieri has made Fulham a little tougher defensively, but they are going to be put under pressure by this Burnley team and I narrowly give the edge to the home team to find a way to break their visitors down and earn a huge three points.

It won't be the end for Fulham, but it will be a long way back and I will back Burnley to extend their historically strong home record against this opponent. Sean Dyche looks to have got the players performing as he would want and I think that leads to a win, although I will back Burnley on the Asian Handicap that returns half the stake in the event of a draw.

Fantasy Star: Any Burnley Defender- this is a boring selection in what could be a tight game, but Burnley have gone back to basics in recent games and keeping a clean sheet will be their main ambition from this fixture.


Cardiff City v Huddersfield Town Pick: This is the second of two fixtures being played between teams in the bottom five of the Premier League this weekend and arguably we could see the first team that is going to be consigned to life in the Championship next season.

While Burnley v Fulham brings in some real tension and the possibility to leave Fulham in a precarious spot, a Huddersfield Town defeat could leave them as many as 11 points off safety with just 16 League games left to play.

David Wagner is very aware of the situation and admitted that a defeat would likely end Huddersfield Town's two season stay in the Premier League. You simply can't lose against your rivals, but it hasn't been more than a couple of weeks since Huddersfield Town were beaten 1-0 at Fulham thanks to an injury time goal being conceded and they look completely devoid of goals or confidence.

The last couple of home games for Cardiff City have been eye-watering experiences for the fans, but generally they have been much better at home. Prior to heavy defeats to Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur, Cardiff City had won 4 of 5 Premier League games here.

Those wins against Fulham, Brighton, Wolves and Southampton show Neil Warnock can get enough out of a limited squad in fixtures against their rivals. Two of those wins are against teams currently below Cardiff City in the Premier League table and a main reason The Bluebirds are not in the relegation zone and I think they might just have enough to earn the three points this weekend too.

Huddersfield Town are not going to lose every game between now and the end of the season and their 9 game losing run surely comes to an end soon. However it's hard to ignore how well Cardiff City have played at home against teams they are expected to beat and I think the club from Wales can find a bit of magic to earn a vital three points here.

Like with the Burnley pick, I can't really pick Cardiff City straight up considering how closely fought this fixture could be, but I will back them on the Asian Handicap which will return half the stake in the event of a draw.

Fantasy Star: Victor Camarasa- the Spaniard should be back from a knock and has proven to be an inspiration for Cardiff City.

Alternative: Sol Bamba- Huddersfield Town struggle for goals and Sol Bamba is a threat from set pieces for Cardiff City too.


Crystal Palace v Watford Pick: This looks to be quite a difficult game from which to pick a winner with a real case being able to be made for both Crystal Palace and Watford.

Over the last six weeks Crystal Palace have shown real improvement and picked up a number of key wins, but they can't always be trusted. The home form is not as strong and that makes them vulnerable here, but Crystal Palace have won 4 of 6 overall and 3 of their last 5 at Selhurst Park and that suggests things are being turned around.

On the other hand Watford have been very difficult to beat in the same time span and they would be a lot shorter if they had held onto leads from games at Everton and Bournemouth. The Hornets could easily be coming into this fixture off the back of 4 consecutive away wins and I was tempted in backing the visitors if not for their poor recent record at Selhurst Park which has seen them lose twice in a row here.

Watford have shown they can be very dangerous going forward though and have created plenty of chances in recent away games. However they have also been looking vulnerable defensively and I think even a goal-shy Crystal Palace team should enjoy some successes going forward.

4 of the last 7 between these clubs have ended with three or more goals shared out and I do think both are capable of scoring and continuing to play the football to see that number hit again. The odds against quote is just tempting enough to take that on here, especially with the way Watford have performed in recent away games, and I think that looks the best way to play a fixture that I really feel could go either way.

Fantasy Star: Wilfried Zaha- he is simply due a big game, will be playing high up the pitch and faces a Watford team who concede plenty of goals.

Alternative: Troy Deeney- Crystal Palace have been vulnerable defensively in some recent games and Watford have shown they are very good going forward.


Leicester City v Southampton Pick: Hands up if you can tell me which Leicester City team are going to turn up this weekend?

Is it going to be the team that won at Chelsea or the one to lose at Newport County in the FA Cup?

Or will it be the team that came from behind to beat Manchester City in the Premier League or the one that lost to Cardiff City here?

Leicester City have to be the most infuriating team in the Premier League to judge from game to game yet they are 7th in the Division and considered favourites to win this one. They should be favourites considering Southampton's struggles, but Ralph Hasenhuttl has found a formula to make The Saints tough to beat on their travels and that makes Leicester City unappealing at a short price.

Some fans will be dreading to go to this fixture knowing the last 3 between Leicester City and Southampton in the Midlands have all ended 0-0. The fixture prior to that run only featured the single goal in a Leicester City win and there is every chance we are going to see another tight game with the home team struggling to break down a team that will sit back and Southampton not blessed with a lot of goals.

After the defeat to Newport County I am expecting 'good' Leicester City to turn up for this fixture, but they are plenty short. Instead we may get a situation where one of these teams fail to score and I think the odds against quote of that happening is the best play for me here.

A single goal may be enough for all three points with Leicester City showing decent defensive organisation and Southampton looking sharper away from home than they have at St Mary's. Gun to the head I would think the home team get that, but I will simply look for one, or both, of these teams failing to score.

Fantasy Star: Ricardo Pereira- he is a defender in the Fantasy Premier League game, but he is playing much higher up the pitch recently and could be a threat for Leicester City in an anticipated tight game.

Alternative: Defender for Either Team- The last 3 games between these clubs at the King Power Stadium have all ended 0-0 so this could potentially be a clean sheet day for either or both teams.


Chelsea v Newcastle United Pick: The layers seem to think Chelsea are going to blow Newcastle United away at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, but I am not sure goals are going to be flying in during the second of the live Premier League offerings.

The fact that Newcastle United have lost 1 of their last 6 away Premier League games has to be respected and even the 4-0 defeat at Anfield saw the home team flattered by two goals in the final eleven minutes.

And this Chelsea team have hardly been firing in front of goal as Maurizio Sarri looks to bring in a Number 9 who can give his team a real focal point. Both Alvaro Morata and Olivier Giroud have not performed as well as Sarri or the fans would have liked and asking Chelsea to win by a three goal margin to cover the Asian Handicap and earn a full payout seems fanciful considering The Blues have not scored in half of their last 6 games in all competitions.

That includes in their last 2 Premier League games here against Leicester City and Southampton and Rafael Benitez will be encouraged to believe his team can earn a result here by defending properly. Ultimately Newcastle United don't have a very good record at Stamford Bridge and they don't have the kind of talent to really believe they can contain Chelsea throughout having lost their last 9 away games against the 'big six' clubs in the Premier League.

Newcastle United have caused problems for the teams they have visited, but Chelsea have found a way to keep clean sheets in 7 of their last 8 games at Stamford Bridge in all competitions. I think that could be the case here on Saturday too and I will back Chelsea to win this game with a clean sheet and maintain the gap to those clubs chasing the top four places.

Fantasy Star: Marcos Alonso- Chelsea have been very good defensively while struggling in front of goal. Marcos Alonso is always going to trying to create chances or score goals and has the bonus of a potential clean sheet here.

Alternative: Willian- Eden Hazard is the main Chelsea attacking threat, but Maurizio Sarri talked up Willian and the Brazilian has moments of magic which could open up a stubborn Newcastle United defence.


Everton v Bournemouth Pick: The first of the two live games to come from the Premier League is from Goodison Park as Everton host Bournemouth in an important game for both clubs.

Neither team has been in very good form in recent weeks, but at least Everton found a way to come through the FA Cup Third Round which may give them a tiny bit more momentum.

The Everton home form has been far below the level that would be expected, but Bournemouth have been really struggling away from home which has seen them lose 6 straight games on their travels in all competitions. The Cherries have conceded at least two goals in their last 5 away Premier League games which have all ended in losses, and they look like they have a few more injury concerns in the squad that has to be dealt with.

Confidence is going to be a problem for Everton considering the uneasiness the supporters have expressed in recent games at Goodison Park. If they don't make a positive start to this fixture you could see the fans begin to voice their discontent a little louder, but I think Everton will be able to edge out a team who are conceding too many goals.

Everton do have a very strong home record against Bournemouth and there is enough quality here to find the goals to win the game and I will back the home team to win a game that features two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Lucas Digne- Everton have been struggling, but Lucas Digne has been playing well and rumours suggest he will be pushed into a more advanced position for this fixture. Takes set pieces too so potential for assists, goals and maybe a clean sheet.

Alternative: Richarlison- Bournemouth have been conceding goals for fun in recent games and Richarlison is always a big attacking threat for Everton.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester United Pick: This is almost like a job interview for Mauricio Pochettino and Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as the two leading contenders to take over as permanent Manchester United manager in the summer.

I am sure that is the way the television companies will try and position the match, but both managers are keen to keep their players focused on what is the biggest game of the weekend.

Tottenham Hotspur are trying to keep tabs on both Liverpool and Manchester City as they are just 6 points off the Premier League lead, but a defeat here would put them under pressure as they would find 6th placed Manchester United just 7 points behind them as the race for the Champions League places would heat up.

As much as Solskjaer wants to be given the job at Old Trafford on a permanent basis, he won't be focused on anything but getting Manchester United finishing the season in as strong a way as possible. They have won 5 straight games under his watch and while they were expected to be won, the performances and style of the wins can't be ignored.

I think the ambition of the manager means he will expect Manchester United to try and get forward and put Tottenham Hotspur under pressure, especially if the home team have some energy levels sapped after a tough win over Chelsea in the League Cup Semi Final during the week.

In the second half of that game Tottenham Hotspur were looking a little leggy and Chelsea might be disappointed they didn't get something from that First Leg. Where Chelsea have looked a little short up front, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer should have options that start and can come off the bench and I do fancy Manchester United getting a result here.

Recent visits to Tottenham Hotspur in the League have not been enjoyable with Manchester United losing 3 straight and not winning any of their last 6. However they did come from behind to beat Spurs in the FA Cup Semi Final at this ground in April and I would expect Manchester United to be the fresher team.

As long as Manchester United can get into half time level, I think the superior energy may be on their side in the second half and they can be backed in the Asian Handicap to avoid defeat.

Fantasy Star: Marcus Rashford- I fancy United in this one and Marcus Rashford looks like he could be leading the line ahead of Romelu Lukaku. So far the England International has responded to the new manager and he can continue a fine run.

Alternative: Heung-Min Son- the South Korean has been in fantastic form and will likely have chances against a vulnerable Manchester United defence. He will be looking to sign off in a big way before joining the National team for the Asian Cup.


Manchester City v Wolves Pick: The final game of the Premier League weekend is expected to be a comfortable home win for Manchester City if the layers are to be believed, but I think they are being heavily influenced by the two Cup wins over lower League opposition.

All credit to Manchester City for scoring 16 goals in a couple of Cup games and that clearly isn't easy to do, but Wolves are significantly better than both Rotherham United and Burton Albion.

Ask any of the top clubs in the Premier League and they will say the same with Wolves already holding Manchester United and Arsenal to draws away from home while also beating Tottenham Hotspur. Manchester City won't need telling any different having had to settle for a 1-1 draw at Molineux earlier this season and there should be a healthy respect for the visitors.

Respect is one thing, but Manchester City should still find a way to ultimately earn the victory in this one although I am not sure we are going to see the amount of goals that have been produced at the Etihad Stadium in the last couple of games. Wolves will cause some problems as they have pace in the final third and will be confident enough to get forward and try to hit Manchester City on the counter.

That makes them dangerous and Manchester City's defensive performances have not been at the level the manager has desired so Wolves can score here. They have managed to do that at Old Trafford, the Emirates Stadium and Wembley Stadium, but Manchester City score plenty of goals at home and I think they will find a way to earn the three points.

Having a small interest on Manchester City winning a game in which both teams score looks the way to go here.

Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- there is some doubt about whether Sergio Aguero will be able to start. One attacker who should be itching to start is Raheem Sterling and I think he can be a key in trying to break down a tough Wolves team.

Alternative: Bernardo Silva- Manchester City may need a magic moment from someone to help them overcome Wolves and Bernardo Silva certainly fits that bill. Cheaper than other Manchester City midfield options too.

MY PICKS: West Ham United + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brighton + 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leicester City-Southampton Both Teams to Score- No @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chelsea Win to Nil @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Manchester United + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win and Both Teams to Score @ 2.87 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (January 12-15)

Teams in the top two Divisions of English Football have been concentrating on the domestic Cups over the last week, but the return of League football begins on Thursday in the Championship and will go all the way through to the huge Manchester United versus Liverpool Premier League game on Saturday.

I don't care what other teams do in the League, the rivalry with Liverpool will always mean that is the first game I look for when the fixtures are released in June and there is plenty on the line from these games this season. This week it is about forcing a way into the top four after both clubs missed out a season ago, but next month there is every chance Manchester United and Liverpool could be playing one another in the League Cup Final at Wembley Stadium.

I love and hate this fixture- it always makes me feel like knowing what it would be like on a drug experiencing the high of success or the deep low of a failure. Having a week between this game and the next one also means it is going to be a feeling that sticks with me through the following days after match day and I really hope that my feeling for the game, which you can read below, comes true on Sunday afternoon.


January has followed up where December left off and that is with little going the way I have been expecting and that does mean a poor first ten days of the month. Things will hopefully be turned around in the next couple of weeks, but I don't want to steer too far from the successes of earlier in the season and see if they can get me back into some winning weeks.

The picks from the next four days of the weekend football can be found below and I am looking for a positive impact on the January totals at the end of this weekend.


Tottenham Hotspur v West Brom Pick: There are a couple of teams in the Premier League who look to be in top gear at the moment and one of those is Tottenham Hotspur who might have wished there was no FA Cup weekend in place last week. After beating Chelsea 2-0 in the Premier League, you have to think these players were chomping at the bit to keep the positive run going in the League and keep the pressure on Chelsea at the top of the table.

The 7 point gap to the leaders is far from insurmountable but Tottenham Hotspur can't allow West Brom to continue to flummox them as they have in recent games. That was the case in the earlier meeting in the League when Tottenham Hotspur completely outplayed West Brom and had all of the chances before being hit by a sucker punch and having to settle for another draw against them.

Recent seasons have seen West Brom visit White Hart Lane and cause Tottenham Hotspur plenty of problems, while the away team have to be confident they can be tough to beat as they have shown at Chelsea and Arsenal recently.

However this is a Tottenham Hotspur team in fine form and feeling very healthy at this moment of the season. With Dele Alli scoring goals and players like Harry Kane always a threat, it is perhaps no surprise that they have scored at least twice in their last 6 games at White Hart Lane and Tottenham Hotspur have also shown some strength defensively.

Despite the poor home run against West Brom, I do think Tottenham Hotspur will win this game. They have been playing too well to think West Brom can go a little further than they did at Stamford Bridge and The Emirates Stadium when keeping the home teams out for 75 minutes before conceding late.

I did consider backing Tottenham Hotspur to win with a clean sheet especially when you think West Brom have not scored against 4 of the 6 games against the top six clubs that they have played. I imagine those couple of narrow losses at Arsenal and Chelsea will have some backing West Brom on the Asian Handicap, but I think Tottenham Hotspur are in strong form at the moment and will be tough to contain.

If they create the same sort of chances as they did at The Hawthornes, I expect better in the final third and Tottenham Hotspur to win this by a couple of goals.


Burnley v Southampton Pick: There was much to admire about the Southampton performance during the week which saw them win the First Leg of their English Football League Cup Semi Final against Liverpool, but the chances that were spurned have to be a concern. Charlie Austin's injury was a huge blow for Southampton and replacing his goals have been far from easy which makes it tough to understand why The Saints are a short favourite to win at Burnley this weekend.

Unlike the home team, Southampton have had a really tough game during the week which has to have taken away some of the energy of the starters and likely means Claude Puel will make some changes. They have also won just 2 of their 10 away Premier League games this season and Southampton have scored just 9 goals in those games with 3 of those coming in a recent win at Bournemouth.

Last week Southampton had to settle for a 2-2 draw at Championship club Norwich City in the FA Cup which means a Replay during the week, and these are just factors that make the away side an unappealing favourite.

Add in the fact that Burnley have a very respectable 7-1-3 record at Turf Moor in the League and a couple of those losses came against Arsenal (who scored in injury time to win 0-1) and Manchester City (who Burnley led 1-0) and I really believed the home team might have been a narrow favourite.

Burnley have won 5 of their last 6 games at Turf Moor and they look vastly under-rated to win this game at 3.60 on Saturday. I will say I was tempted to back that, but seeing you can take Burnley at a decent enough price to avoid defeat looks the more appealing option if only because Southampton have recently drawn at Stoke City and won at Bournemouth which suggests they could hold out for a point.

I do think a single goal for Burnley might be enough to avoid defeat because of Southampton's lack of goals in their away games in the Premier League and I very much like the home side to be able to do that. Simply put, Burnley should not be this price to avoid a defeat in this game.


Sunderland v Stoke City Pick: Mark Hughes won't have been impressed with the manner in which his Stoke City side were beaten by Wolves at home in the FA Cup last weekend and he has to be demanding a reaction. The remainder of this campaign will be focused on the Premier League as Stoke City look for another top half finish, but losing out on a Cup run will have been a blow to Hughes' ambitions.

They head to Sunderland in the Premier League this weekend as the favourite and I do think David Moyes' men can perhaps earn a valuable win by upsetting this inconsistent Stoke City team.

There is no doubt in my mind that the superior talent is in the Stoke City squad with some lovely creative players to watch. However those players have as many off days as they have on and that makes Stoke City a little erratic while they have also been conceding too many goals away from home.

Those goals have been conceded at Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea and Sunderland are clearly not of that level, but I do think The Black Cats have played well enough at home to feel confident in their chances. Injuries are a big concern for Sunderland which has limited Moyes' options and reinforcements are not forthcoming, but they have scored goals in 7 of their last 8 Premier League games at The Stadium of Light.

Sunderland have lost 1 of their last 6 games here in all competitions and they have won 3 of their last 5 Premier League games at home while earning a precious 2-2 draw with Liverpool in another. Even the 0-1 defeat to Chelsea came after Sunderland had a few chances to draw level in the game and I think they can do enough to avoid defeat at the least in this one.

Stoke City have to be respected for their performances away from home against the teams that are below them in the League table. They have won at Hull City and Watford and drawn at Middlesbrough and West Ham United. Only Crystal Palace have beaten them from those below them in the table and that was at a time when The Eagles were flying higher than they are now so Stoke City can cause problems of their own for a Sunderland team who have been defensively suspect.

With a couple of key players away for the African Cup of Nations from the defence, Sunderland might be vulnerable, but I do think they will do enough to earn at least a point. The Black Cats are unbeaten in 14 home League games against Stoke City and have won the last 3 in a row and I will look for them to avoid a defeat in this one by backing them with the start on the Asian Handicap.


Swansea City v Arsenal Pick: After struggling a little bit at Derby County and underachieving, Paul Clement comes into Swansea City with a tough task in front of him. At least the players have shown they are capable of the fight with a win at Crystal Palace in their last Premier League game, but they aren't facing a team who are as low on confidence as The Eagles are at this moment.

This time they face Arsenal and are coming in off a 2-0 loss at Hull City in the FA Cup which means Swansea City have lost 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions. They also have to show they can defend better than they did in their last 2 games at The Liberty Stadium having conceded four to West Ham and three to Bournemouth.

There are goals in this Arsenal side and they have taken them on their travels, but Swansea City have to feel they can cause some problems of their own against a team that have conceded in their last 9 away games in all competitions. Defensively Arsenal can't seem to turn a corner and they haven't won any of their last 3 away games in the Premier League, but those have come against teams in better form than Swansea City.

This has been a ground Arsenal have enjoyed visiting because Swansea City will allow them to play their expressive football. It will take time for Paul Clement to install his own style on the football club, but Swansea City are not a team that currently has those players who can really strengthen them defensively.

Reinforcements need to be signed by the new manager and I think Arsenal expose the soft underbelly which has seen Swansea City concede at least three times in 4 of their last 5 home League games. It should be enough for The Gunners to win this one with a margin and I will back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap.


Leicester City v Chelsea Pick: After losing at White Hart Lane ten days ago, this is a big test for Chelsea to prove they are capable of producing another long winning run and not simply come back to the pack with a poor set of results. It is going to be a tough assignment to beat Leicester City at The King Power Stadium despite the inconsistent form the home team have displayed all season and failing to win here will increase the pressure on Chelsea.

The next five Premier League games look tough with home games against Hull City and Arsenal and away games at Liverpool and Burnley to come following this trip to the East Midlands. Failing to win here will certainly give the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester City the belief they can close the gap on The Blues and I think it is important for Chelsea to respond the right way.

They are catching Leicester City at what feels like a good time with the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Islam Slimani representing Algeria in the African Cup of Nations. That takes away some of the attacking threat for Leicester City who have tried to go back to basics in recent weeks by making themselves harder to beat.

Chelsea have simply not scored or conceded too many goals away from home all season and are unlikely to commit too many men forward to allow Leicester City to expose the spaces they did when hammering Manchester City here. Outside of that game Leicester City have found it hard to find goals with Jamie Vardy struggling and now without two key attacking threats.

It has been a fixture that has produced plenty of goals in recent seasons and 9 of the last 11 games in all competitions have seen at least three goals shared out. That includes 4 of the last 5 since Leicester City returned to the top flight and in both games this season, but I think this one might be a little different.

Goals have been far from flowing in their recent home/away games respectively and I do think both managers are likely to focus on the defensive aspect of things this week. Neither will want to give too much away and I think backing two goals or fewer to be scored in the second live television game on Saturday afternoon at odds against looks a solid call.

An early goal could change everything, but I think defences can be on top for the most part on Saturday afternoon.


Everton v Manchester City Pick: This is a big televised game between a club from Liverpool and one from Manchester on Super Sunday, but let's face facts and admit that the majority of neutrals will be eagerly awaiting the second clash between these two cities later in the day.

Everton and Manchester City won't concern themselves about that and instead will be focused on earning the three points that are available in this Premier League game. Those are important to both teams and I think this could be quite a good appetiser ahead of the main course.

Manchester City games will always involve attacking football, but the defensive frailties means there is always some doubt about their ability to see out games. That is what Everton have to think although Ronald Koeman has found it difficult to find the right balance between attack and defence consistently enough over the last few months.

The home form has been solid for Everton, but the defeat to Leicester City was a big blow in the FA Cup last weekend. That came with a strong starting eleven and Everton were pretty poor in a home loss to Liverpool while fortunate to earn a draw with Manchester United in recent games here.

The problem for Manchester City has to be their own recent form has hardly been inspiring and I think this makes for a close and competitive game on Sunday. There are goals in the Manchester City side, but it is hard to see them keeping a clean sheet if Everton use the speed on the counter that they do have in the squad.

My feeling is that Manchester City have turned a corner at a ground where they have struggled despite the millions invested in the squad. They are as healthy as they have been all season and players at Everton might be focused on the comings and goings and wondering what that means for their own place in the future plans of Ronald Koeman.

Manchester City have scored at least twice in 6 of their last 8 away games in all competitions and I think they can put away an Everton team who rode their luck to stay in games against Arsenal and Manchester United and almost did enough to keep Liverpool out. I will back Manchester City to head away from Goodison Park with a vital three points this weekend and keep themselves in the Premier League title hunt.


Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: No matter what happens in English football, Manchester United versus Liverpool is always going to be the biggest domestic fixture on the calendar and it rivals, if not outdoes, El Classico in terms of global appeal. Real Madrid and Barcelona might have the stronger teams, but this is as big as it gets in terms of a rivalry.

A couple of months ago it might have been argued that Liverpool would be the favourites to win this fixture, but Manchester United have been much improved over the last few weeks and they come in as the favourites. I have to agree with those sentiments as Liverpool have just had a couple of difficult performances and have to be a lot better at Old Trafford if they are going to take something away from this game.

Defending like they did at St Mary's during the week will not see Liverpool get away with things as they did at Southampton, especially not with Zlatan Ibrahimovic expected back in the home starting eleven. Jose Mourinho has definitely seen Manchester United find a groove ahead of this one and they have been creating chances and winning plenty of games.

Michael Carrick has helped free up Paul Pogba, who has looked every bit the big investment Manchester United made to reacquire him, and the players seem at ease with the system Mourinho has created for them. It would be a huge surprise if Manchester United are not able to create chances in this one against a Liverpool back four that have had plenty of problems all season and I do think the home team will look good.

The key is whether they can defend as well as Southampton and restrict what Liverpool are able to do in the final third having struggled in their last two games in front of goal. The absence of Sadio Mane is a big blow as Liverpool would have loved that pace and direct threat to run at the Manchester United back four, while Philippe Coutinho has only just returned to the starting line up.

A lot will be made of Jurgen Klopp's record against Jose Mourinho but these are different teams that they both manage and I don't believe it plays a part. My only concern would be Mourinho's tendency to want to shut up shop in these big games when holding a lead as I do feel Liverpool's defence can be exploited when they push too many men forward, but I do think Manchester United can come through this one and earn the three points.

Manchester United are the team in form, are playing at home and look healthier than their rivals from down the M62 and I will back them to win this game at odds against.


Reading v Queens Park Rangers Pick: Both Queens Park Rangers and Reading were knocked out of the FA Cup in the Third Round last weekend, but I don't think either Ian Holloway or Jaap Stam will be too disappointed in the long run. Both have big goals to achieve in the Championship this season and this is a big game for both to keep some recent momentum behind them.

Reading have won 3 League games in a row and 5 in a row at home in the Championship, while Queens Park Rangers have won 2 League game in a row.

That should mean two confident teams come out for this live televised game on Thursday evening and I think it could be quite a good game as both have shown some attacking threats coupled with defensive frailties. Goals might be the order of the day, but I do think Reading have played well enough at home to win this game and I am going to back them to snap a recent poor record against Queens Park Rangers.

The first goal will be critical in the form of the two clubs, but Reading have done that in their last 5 League games here. I also think Queens Park Rangers are still a little inconsistent and they could easily have lost their fourth away game in a row at Wolves last time out before scoring the winner against the run of play.

At close to odds against, I think Reading can be backed for a vital three points to keep the pressure on the top two in the Championship.


Leeds United v Derby County Pick: This looks a very good game picked for the television cameras on Friday night with both Leeds United and Derby County searching for a return to the top flight of English Football. Both are clubs with a huge history behind them, even if recent years have not been so memorable, and they have two managers who have full belief of their own abilities to get them back into the Premier League.

Home advantage could be huge for Leeds United this Friday as a well rested starting eleven have performed well here in recent games. They have actually been playing well everywhere, but Leeds United have the confidence that comes with 4 home wins in a row with all of those coming along with a clean sheet.

That could be a problem for a Derby County team who haven't scored freely away from home and whose recent run of wins came to an end in the League. The victory at West Brom will have given them a confidence boost, but this is going to be a much different environment for the players on Friday.

There isn't much between them, but home advantage is expected to make the difference and I think Leeds United win. I will back them on the Asian Handicap with the expectation that Leeds United won't lose and that will at least return the stake in the event of a draw.


Bristol City v Cardiff City Pick: This feels like a proper relegation six pointer but it is Bristol City who are heading in the wrong direction compared with Cardiff City. This is a big rivalry game too and both clubs have to have circled this game as one they can win.

Neither Bristol City or Cardiff City are defending with much conviction at the moment, but both have shown they are much better in the final third. Goals have been flowing in home/away games respectively in the League and both have been able to take part in the scoring, but have also been conceding too many.

The last 2 Bristol City home games and 4 of the last 5 Cardiff City away games have seen both teams score as well as producing at least three goals shared out and the game between them earlier in the season did end up with three goals scored. It feels like this is going to be a 2-1 kind of game and picking a winner is anyone's guess.

Instead of deciding that, I will pick the over 2.5 goals option at odds against.


Birmingham City v Nottingham Forest Pick: Two out of form teams meet at St Andrew's on Saturday as Birmingham City get set to host Nottingham Forest and it does have a feel of a game that could produce goals.

Both teams have been defending very erratically of late, but both also have shown they can score goals and I expect there to be some chances created at both ends of the field in this one.

The goals came when these teams met at The City Ground and recent performances from both teams suggests we should be able to see at least three in this one. The last 4 Birmingham City home League games and the last 4 Nottingham Forest away League games have featured at least three goals and I expect these two Midland clubs to produce an entertaining game for the fans.


Preston North End v Brighton Pick: This is going to be far from an easy game for Brighton as they try and keep the run of wins going and also making sure they remain in a strong position in the Championship.

Preston North End are very good at home and they showed they can compete with any team when pushing Arsenal all the way in the FA Cup Third Round. However it should be noted that they have not been as strong at Deepdale in recent weeks and Preston North End have been beaten by Play Off chasing teams like Newcastle United and Leeds United here over the last couple of months.

In recent weeks Brighton have been scoring plenty of goals in their away games and I think they will have the edge in this one. It has not been a ground that Brighton have enjoyed over the years and they have yet to beat Preston North End at Deepdale, but this Brighton team might be as good as any that have previously played here.

It certainly won't be an easy game for Brighton with Preston North End raising their game for the better teams that come here, but the away side have been scoring plenty of goals in recent weeks and can earn another big three points. At odds against I will back Brighton to do that and keep moving towards the Premier League.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.01 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sunderland + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.14 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Chelsea Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester City @ 1.85 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Manchester United @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Reading @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Leeds United 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bristol City-Cardiff City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
Birmingham City-Nottingham Forest Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Brighton @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)

January Update: 6-14-1, - 15.50 Units (42 Units Staked, - 36.90% Yield)

December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 180-185-8, + 2.77 Units (708 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)