Super Bowl LIII NFL Picks 2019 (February 3rd)

Super Bowl LIII- New England Patriots v Los Angeles Rams

We could have got a very different Super Bowl if the officials in the NFC Championship Game had an idea on how to enforce the rules which cost the New Orleans Saints to ice the game against the Los Angeles Rams before being beaten in Overtime. The Kansas City Chiefs also came very close to knocking off the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game with the key moment being Dee Ford lining up offside in a play that ended with a Tom Brady pick that would have won the game for the Chiefs.

Instead the Patriots and the Rams got the ball back in both cases and were able to go on and win in Overtime to set up this Super Bowl.

Let's begin with this- I don't like the New England Patriots, which isn't a surprise considering I am a Miami Dolphins fan, while I am very bored of seeing this team find their way into the Super Bowl. This is the third year in a row that the Patriots are representing the AFC and they are 1-1 in the last couple of years, while the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick connection have made it through to a ninth Super Bowl which began with a win over the Rams in 2001.

On that day the Patriots were the underdog against the 'Greatest Show on Turf' but the win for New England began a dynasty in Boston while the Rams suffered through some miserable years. They've moved to Los Angeles since that 2001 game and the Rams are now looking like a team on the up with Head Coach Sean McVay receiving a lot of plaudits for the work done from an Offensive point of view.

Los Angeles have come through a tough path to make the Super Bowl with the win in New Orleans very impressive. They have a strong roster, but the Rams have to make sure they are not predictable on both sides of the ball. You know Belichick is going to have schemed things in a way to try and take away not only weapons from the Los Angeles Rams, but he is going to want to make sure they are not able to open up the play-action which has been a key for them.

CJ Anderson and Todd Gurley are both expected to earn a lot of touches in this game and they are going to be facing a New England Defensive Line that has shown improvement in each passing week of the season. The Patriots have been dominant in the Play Offs having held both the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs to 41 yards or fewer and they have given up those yards at 2.7 yards per carry.

It is going to be important for New England to be stout up front again as it will disrupt a lot of what the Rams want to do. McVay has proven to be someone who does want to make big plays out of the play-action, but restricting the Rams on the ground will perhaps make them a little predictable. Los Angeles can try and open things up by using Gurley as a pass catcher on first and second Downs and then pound the ball against the Patriots but it does feel like an important battle in the trenches.

Forcing teams into obvious passing situations has seen the New England Secondary also vastly improve their play. It should be no surprise after seeing this for many a season, but Bill Belichick has taken young players and moulded them into valuable starters and doing it in a way where he can replace them and bring someone else in to do a stellar job like the Patriots have been doing once again down the stretch.

The pass rush has come alive for the Patriots, but Jared Goff is someone who has shown he can get the ball out of his hands quick enough. However the biggest benefit for the young Quarter Back is having his Head Coach essentially decipher Defenses for him at the line and also being protected by a strong Offensive Line which will give him enough time to make his plays through the air.

That should mean Los Angeles are able to have success throwing the ball, but much depends on the run and the exact same thing can be said for the New England Patriots.

For all the points scored by the New England Patriots and for all the credit that deserves to be given to Quarter Back Tom Brady it has to be noted that his has thrown just two Touchdown passes in the Play Offs. That is down to the Patriots going back to a power running play calling and Sony Michel, Rex Burkhead and James White have all had successes with the ball in their hands.

All three Running Backs are going to have their opportunities in this game and over the course of the season this would have been the right play against the Los Angeles Rams. The Defensive Line have some top names on it, but the Rams had not been able to stop the run, but that has changed in the Play Offs as they have held the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints to 2.3 yards per carry.

Containing the likes of Ezekiel Elliot, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram will set Los Angeles up to be very confident in stopping the Patriots and once again the trenches are going to be a key for the two teams. If the Rams can stop the run they will believe the front four can put a lot of pressure on Brady when he steps back to throw and that has been the successful formula to knock this Quarter Back off his game in the post-season.

Aaron Donald could create huge match up problems right up front and getting into Brady's face may lead to some errant throws and stalled drives.

You would still think the Patriots can move the chains with the way they can scheme mismatches against what may be a pretty predictable base Defense run by Wade Phillips.

The Rams Secondary have not been able to stop teams, but they are playing a 'bend, don't break' system and it may need New England to play out some long drives to get into a position to produce points. What that does is suggest this could be a game that is shortened by the the two teams having long, time consuming drives with both looking to run the ball and create short passes for their Quarter Back which keeps the clock running.

In recent years the Super Bowl has been a high-scoring game and especially higher than the layers have anticipated, while the underdog has been the team to back. However I think this could be far too many points in a game where these two teams may have long drives to score points and barring a number of short field turnovers I do think we could see an 'under' in this game.

I considered backing the underdog in this one with my lean towards the Los Angeles Rams, but I do think going with the total points line is the best play in this Super Bowl.

It could be another close game as we have tended to see in the majority of Super Bowls played recently and Overtime would be a killer for my selection.


But even with that in mind I am going to play the 'under' in this one.

MY PICK: New England Patriots-Los Angeles Rams Under 55.5 Total Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

NFL Play Offs Championship Game Picks 2019 (January 20th)

I had a pretty awful Divisional Round of the Play Offs for the second season in a row and I know exactly where I went wrong.

If I do the same next season I deserve to go 0-4 for the third year in a row.

Idiot selections aside, we have reached the NFL Championship Games and I think the four most deserving teams make up the final quartet. Home Field should be the difference maker, but you can see how closely the teams are matched that the layers are hesitant to give the home team more than the three points that is standard practice when beginning to compile spreads.

I do think both games will be fascinating and we won't see the blow outs like we did in a couple of the Play Off Games played in the Divisional Round.

Below you can read my selections for the Championship Games.


Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Back in Week 9 of the regular season the New Orleans Saints beat the Los Angeles Rams at home and that not only ended the unbeaten run of the visitors, but it also meant the Saints were able to secure home field advantage through the Play Offs. Even after the game in Week 9 the feeling was that the two teams would meet again in the NFC Championship Game and that has proven to be the case.

Both received a Bye in the Wild Card Round which would have been a huge help, but the Saints and Rams showed they are the two best teams in the NFC with the performances in the Divisional Round. The Rams dominated the Dallas Cowboys at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, while the New Orleans Saints survived being punched in the mouth early in the game with the Philadelphia Eagles and overcame a 0-14 deficit to earn their spot in the Championship Game.

Two Offensive minded Head Coaches will receive plenty of media attention during the week, but it is going to be the play of the Defensive units which decide this game. While the Saints and Rams have been capable of lighting up the scoreboard, the two Defensive units have played their part at pivotal moments and that is going to be all important in this one.

Beating the Saints in the SuperDome may be one of the biggest challenges in the NFL and they proved that through the season. A Week 1 upset to Tampa Bay and a Week 17 loss to the Carolina Panthers with rested starters should not cloud the difficulty the Los Angeles Rams have in winning here on Sunday afternoon.

The Rams Defensive Line was huge for them against the Dallas Cowboys in the Divisional Round as they clamped down on Ezekiel Elliot. However Wade Phillips has seen his Defense struggle against the run all season and I don't think one game is enough to suggest things would have changed significantly.

When they played here in Week 9 Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara had big games for the Saints and I do think the two dynamic Running Backs can do the same here. Ultimately the Rams have to respect the quality Quarter Back Drew Brees and his ability to make plays through the air and that may lead to more holes for the New Orleans Offensive Line to exploit and set the team up in third and manageable situations.

Michael Thomas had a monster game in Week 9, but I think the Saints will be looking to other options with Aqib Talib back. Drew Brees has been able to throw many unfamiliar names open and I do think play-action and short passes to the likes of Kamara coming out of the backfield will keep the chains moving and put some pressure on Jared Goff and the Los Angeles Rams to keep up in what could be another shoot-out.

Last week the Rams were able to establish both Todd Gurley and CJ Anderson in their win over Dallas and they had some really long, time consuming drives which may be the game plan for this one too. Keeping Brees and company off the field and cooling them down would be huge for the Rams, but they are playing an under-rated New Orleans Defensive unit that may feel they have the talent to make some big plays.

There has been a key injury on the Saints Defensive Line which may have a big impact on the game. Sheldon Rankings is done for the season and is a big body in the middle of the Saints Defensive Line which helped them hold teams to 3.6 yards per carry through the season. Now the Saints have to face Gurley and Anderson without him having seen the two prove huge in the win over the Cowboys in the Divisional Round and that could be where this game is won and lost.

New Orleans will feel they have enough playmakers to win this game if they can stop the run like they have for the season, but it looks a big ask. That makes things a little more comfortable for Jared Goff who has not maintained his form from the first half of the season through to the second half.

Goff has not been asked to do a lot with the run game working as well as it has for the Rams and he will need all the support he can get again if they are going to win this game. There are holes in the New Orleans Secondary to exploit, but those are much easier to attack from third and manageable than third and long so Gurley and Anderson have to have a big game and Los Angeles can't afford to fall into a big hole on the scoreboard.

It is a difficult game to predict because you simply can't know how the loss of Rankings is going to affect the New Orleans Saints. If the Rams can run the ball effectively they will be very difficult to beat, but what I do think is that we are not going to get the same time of shoot out as we did in Week 9.

Both teams will look to run the ball and I don't think the Saints will get the chunk plays through the air as they did last time. Running the ball means the clock gets worn down that much quicker and long, effective drives will be the order of the day for the Rams.

It is a big total with many expecting the teams to pick up from where they left off in Week 9, but both Offensive units have not been as explosive in the back part of the season. The Championship Game looks a good one, but one where I will look for the total points line to be a touch on the high side.


New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is another rematch in the Championship Round of the Play Offs, but this time the Kansas City Chiefs will get to host the New England Patriots having lost in Foxboro in the regular season. This is the second of the Championship Games to be played on Sunday and the layers are finding it very difficult to split the teams with home field being given the three points that is the general rule for those layers creating the spreads.

It was the New England Patriots who won the regular season game in another shoot out, but the second half performance from the Kansas City Chiefs will be a big encouragement to them. Patrick Mahomes grew in that game and has proven to be a level headed Quarter Back that can play at a very high level no matter the intense nature of the NFL.

The Chiefs comfortably handled the Indianapolis Colts in the Divisional Round at home and having the chance to host this one at Arrowhead is a huge advantage for them. They have won eight of their nine games played at home in the 2018 season and Kansas City will be very confident against a New England Patriots team that were only 3-5 on the road.

There were a lot of people writing off the Patriots and the Los Angeles Chargers were a popular pick to beat them last week in the Divisional Round. It was never a contest though and the Patriots dismissed the Chargers, but for once they are not hosting the AFC Championship Game and that does feel like a difference maker.

In recent years the Patriots have been very vulnerable when losing home advantage in the Play Offs and I really do think that could be the case again. I don't want to write off Bill Belichick and his brilliant mind especially as he has seen Patrick Mahomes once this season and likely compiled a great game plan to limit the young Quarter Back, but I love the way Mahomes has handled all situations.

There is no doubt that there has been an improvement in the levels the New England Defensive unit have been operating at, but those performances have been with home comforts. It has been a very different story on the road and I do think the Chiefs can find a very good balance on the Offensive side of the ball which will make it very difficult to stop them.

Damien Williams and Spencer Ware are not as good as Kareem Hunt, but both are solid enough Running Backs who should be able to have success in this one. Andy Reid is someone who will look to establish the run in different ways so Tyreek Hill running a jet sweep will also have an impact on this game, while Mahomes is an athletic Quarter Back too, but I would expect Williams and Ware to have success against the Patriots Defensive Line despite the recent strength shown up front.

Patrick Mahomes has been put under pressure at times by the opposing pass rush and that may be the case again in this one, but third and long doesn't faze him. There have been too many occasions when those have been converted into First Downs to think he is 'lucky' so I do think Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs will have success moving the chains as they did when these teams met in the regular season.

Beating Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in the Play Offs is a huge test for any team in the NFL and you know these two men are unlikely to put New England in a spot where they beat themselves. You just know Brady is itching to keep proving the doubters wrong after hearing his thoughts following the dominant win over the Chargers and the Patriots did score 43 points against the Chiefs at home.

With Josh Gordon gone, New England have been happy to lean on their Running Backs either as Receivers coming out of the backfield or pounding the ball down at the line of scrimmage. Sony Michel has been a huge success for the Patriots and have a big game in the Divisional Round, but both James White and Rex Burkhead get their touches too and the Patriots will feel they can establish the run.

This is huge for New England who know that the one thing Kansas City do very well is rushing the passer and putting them under intense pressure. It has proven that the best way to beat Brady in the Play Offs is with a strong pass rush which leads to the future Hall of Famer just getting a little edgy inside the pocket and perhaps makes him feel some phantom pressure that lead to mistakes.

That pressure for the Chiefs has been a key reason the Secondary have improved as the weeks have gone on in the NFL. While Brady will have some success, I do think the Chiefs have the edge with the pass rush that can at least stall some drives and give Patrick Mahomes and the Offensive unit every chance of reaching the Super Bowl.

As you can tell I do like Kansas City, although some of the enthusiasm is taken away when you think of the Coaching battle. I like Andy Reid, but he has Coached some poor Play Off games which would concern me against someone like Bill Belichick.

However Reid seems to hold all the Aces in this one and my favourite to win the Super Bowl is Kansas City so I do believe they win this one. Backing the home team to cover against the Patriots in the Play Offs may seem dangerous, but New England are 1-4 in their last five road Play Off games and they are also 1-4 against the spread in that time.

MY PICKS: New Orleans Saints-Los Angeles Rams Under 56.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Divisional Round Play Off Picks 2019 (January 12-13)

The NFL Play Offs continue this weekend in the final Saturday of the 2018 season when the Divisional Round is played.

Next week both Championship Games will be played on Sunday and two weeks after that we will see the Super Bowl and that means tensions are raised with teams now sensing an opportunity to win a ring.

All four Divisional Round Play Off games sees the home team favoured to win and all by big margins too, but the underdogs have been in fine form for twelve months in the Play Offs. These trends never last forever, but I am hoping there will be more of the same this weekend during the Divisional Round.


Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: We are down to the final eight teams in the NFL as the run towards the Super Bowl picks up steam with the beginning of four games from the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.

This looks like it has the potential to be a very special game when the Indianapolis Colts (11-6) go back on the road to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (12-4) who finished with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC. All roads go through Arrowhead, but the Chiefs and Andy Reid have to overcome previous Play Off heartbreaks if they are going to progress to the Championship Game as is expected.

Patrick Mahomes is going to be the key for the Chiefs if they are going to win the Super Bowl and the young Quarter Back has stated that he is not worried about the Kansas City Play Off history as he wasn't involved in the negative results. However the fans will be edgy considering the Chiefs have had such a poor record in the post-season.

The fact that Kansas City are hosting arguably the hottest team in the AFC does not help and the Indianapolis Colts were dominant winners in the Wild Card Round when beating AFC South Champions Houston on the road. As the Number 6 Seed the Indianapolis Colts won't host a Play Off game, but they are playing with the confidence of having a host of wins behind them and the Colts also have Andrew Luck playing at close to his best from the Quarter Back position which could be all-important when it comes to a potential shoot-out.

It won't be all down to Luck's arm though as he will likely lean on Marlon Mack and the running game which was so effective in the win over Houston in the Wild Card Round. Mack should be ready to have another very good game in this one as Houston have struggled to contain the run for most of the season and won't be able to commit men to the line of scrimmage knowing how good Luck can be throwing the ball around.

Eric Berry's return has helped the Kansas City Secondary, but it looks like he won't be available for this game which makes it very difficult to know how the Chiefs are going to stop Indianapolis moving the ball in this one. Turnovers may be the biggest danger for Andrew Luck and his Offense, but he should have a clean pocket for much of this game and I can see Luck having a very big game as the Colts move the ball up and down the field both through the air and on the ground.

Mahomes has proven to be someone who can thrive in a shoot-out and he has the mentality of thriving rather than wilting in that situation. However this is a first start in a Play Off game which is always a different challenge to the regular season.

It does feel like this game is going to be on Mahomes' arm because the Colts Defensive Line can be very good at playing the run and the Kansas City Chiefs have not quite looked right there since Kareem Hunt was cut and Spencer Ware was injured.

Even then I would think Mahomes will have success in this Play Off game with the talent he has at Receiver and his own ability to find big plays. The Colts can get some pressure up front, but Kansas City should be able to give their Quarter Back time and Mahomes can also scramble and make plays on the run about as well as anybody in the NFL.

This does feel like a game where both teams will be able to move the ball Offensively, but I like the Colts balance and I think they can find a cover with the points they are being given. First time Quarter Backs in the Play Offs are just 4-16 against the spread as home favourites and Andrew Luck has the experience to put Indianapolis in a position to win this.

You can't ignore the fact that Andy Reid teams have lost their last four games when favoured at home in the Play Offs, while Kansas City are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five at home. Indianapolis have covered the spread in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and I do like the road underdog in this one.


Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: There may have been some reservations about two teams moving to Los Angeles in the NFL with the feeling that they would not be supported in the City of Angels, but both are in the Divisional Round of the NFL Play Offs and that should mean there is some excitement building. It is the Los Angeles Rams (13-3) who will get to play first this weekend as they host the Dallas Cowboys (11-6) and the Rams are looking to succeed where they failed last season.

It was Wild Card Weekend when the Rams were beaten here by the Atlanta Falcons twelve months ago so there may be some nerves as the team gets set to host this Play Off game. Investment in the summer was made in a bid to get Los Angeles over the edge and anything less than a Super Bowl appearance may be considered an underachievement for them.

Playing a team who have won eight of their last nine games including coming through a Play Off Round is never easy, but the Cowboys have to show they can compete effectively on the road. In 2018 they had a losing record on the road and Dallas are a team with a poor Play Off record over the last twenty-five years which suggests they have plenty to prove too.

Football is not played on paper, but you can't ignore how well it feels like the Dallas Cowboys will match up with the Los Angeles Rams.

Offensively the Cowboys are a team built to run the ball and it is impossible to gloss over the fact that the Los Angeles Rams gave up 5.1 yards per carry over the course of the season. Wade Phillips is a fantastic Defensive Co-Ordinator, but stopping the run has been an Achilles Heel for the former Dallas Head Coach and Ezekiel Elliot should be able to pick up from where he left off against the Seattle Seahawks on Wild Card Weekend.

The Rams Defensive Line does have some big time players on it, but they have to find a way to slow down Elliot who will be leaned on to control the clock as well as keep the Cowboys in third and manageable spots.

From there Dak Prescott, who has dismissed worries about an injury that may limit his ability to scramble, should also be able to make some plays. Amari Cooper could be covered up in the Secondary, but other players can step up for Prescott as long as Dallas are not stuck in third and long spots where they are simply not built to convert consistently.

Ezekiel Elliot is one of two big name Running Backs playing in this Divisional Round game as Todd Gurley looks to be healthy having missed the last couple of games in the regular season. Gurley has been a huge reason the Los Angeles Rams have been as effective Offensively as they have been, but running against the Dallas Defensive Line has proved to be a big challenge for many teams throughout the season and instead his biggest impact may come as a pass catcher coming out of the backfield.

Sean McVay is the kind of Offensive mind who will look to get Gurley going one way or another, but he will also ask Jared Goff to make some deep plays from the Quarter Back position. Goff tends to be well protected and the Dallas Secondary has given up some big plays, although the absence of Cooper Kuup continues to hinder the Rams from really coming back on track Offensively.

In saying that I do think the Rams will have some successes moving the ball too, but this still feels like too many points for the home team to be getting.

There are some trends that go against both teams but Jared Goff is just 4-11-1 against the spread in his career when playing against a team with a winning record. This season that number is 0-3-1 against the spread and this is a Rams team that tends to be dragged into close games.

In this case I expect the Cowboys to run them into a close game and I will take the points with the road underdog here.


Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots Pick: The schedule for the NFL Play Offs have not really been any help at all to the Los Angeles Chargers (13-4) who are once again in the early Eastern Time slot on Sunday in the Divisional Round. A reminder has to be given that this is essentially  10am start for the Chargers who had to play in the same time slot when they met the Baltimore Ravens on the East Coast during Wild Card Weekend, although it didn't prevent them from winning the game.

It was a tough battle against the Ravens, but the Chargers were deserved winners and now they have had to do a lot of travelling ahead of another meeting with the New England Patriots (11-5) in the post-season. The Chargers actually finished with a better regular season record than their hosts, but that counts for nothing in the Play Offs and Philip Rivers has never led his team to a win over the Patriots when Tom Brady has been at Quarter Back.

A big negative trend goes against the Chargers too which adds to the worry about this early kick off for the West Coast team. Any team that is playing a third consecutive road game in the Play Offs are just 20-37-2 against the trend in that game.

I have already picked the Indianapolis Colts to cover in that dynamic and I do think the Los Angeles Chargers can be the second team to overcome the trend. I can't help but be concerned that this early kick off coupled with all the recent travelling could leave them short, but Los Angeles should be looking to play hard for Captain Brandon Mebane who is back with the team in the week where his seven week old daughter passed away having had complications from her birth.

The Chargers have to go back to basics if they are going to win this and that means running the ball effectively and challenging the New England Defensive Line which has had problems for most of the season. Some of the recent Chargers numbers running the ball have been affected by the fact they played a strong team like the Baltimore Ravens twice, but Melvin Gordon is set to go and I would imagine there will be a big dose of the Running Back fed to the Patriots to try and open things up for Philip Rivers.

In recent games the Quarter Back has not been at his best, but he has been efficient and Rivers will feel he has the Receivers to make plays against the Patriots Secondary. There have been signs of improvement from New England on the back end of their Defensive unit, but it could mean a lot of one on one coverage if the Chargers are able to run the ball as they can.

There is some more concern with how many people have tried to draw a line through the New England Patriots and that makes this team dangerous. I have learned to never write them off, although there have been signs that the Brady era is very much closer to an end than it ever has been before.

Tom Brady has been playing with an injury by some accounts, but the Quarter Back's experience in the post-season can't be dismissed. It has been more of a struggle with Josh Gordon's off-field issues ending his season and Rob Gronkowski looking like a shadow of his former self, but New England are very tough to beat here in Foxboro and I expect them to have prepared very well through the Bye of the Wild Card Round.

The Patriots have a strong run game of their own which can make things much easier for Brady and leaning on Sony Michel, James White and Rex Burkhead could be the way to go. It has to be said that the Chargers Defensive Line is an under-rated one and they have shown they can play the run very well, but this week they will be respecting the Quarter Back and that may mean a few more holes up front to be exploited.

I would expect Brady to have success throwing the ball, but the key to beating this Quarter Back in Play Offs past has been the ability to get pressure on him that does make Brady a touch jittery in the pocket. The Los Angeles Chargers have a very strong couple of Defensive Ends in Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa who can cause havoc up front and both will need to have a big game just to get Brady thinking about where the pressure is coming from.

That could be the key for the Los Angeles Chargers in trying to upset the odds and winning another tough road game on the East Coast.

The Chargers do have a miserable 0-4 record against the spread in their last four games against the New England Patriots, but they were very competitive in a loss here last season. Both teams have some very strong trends to lean on, but I think getting more than a Field Goal for Los Angeles is just appealing enough to be backed here.

It might need a backdoor cover and a clean game from Rivers to do that, but the Chargers are playing with confidence and belief and they do look capable of upsetting the odds for a second week in a row.


Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints Pick: You can't deny the feeling the Philadelphia Eagles (10-7) have to have after somehow coming through three games as the underdog to win the Super Bowl last season and continuing in that vain this time around. Maybe there really is some magic around Nick Foles who has been little more than a functional Quarter Back around the NFL before re-signing with the Philadelphia Eagles and turning into a player that won't let his team be beaten in the Play Offs.

The Eagles needed a big intervention at Soldier Field on Wild Card Weekend as a tipped Field Goal hit the post and the crossbar before rebounding back into play and helping Philadelphia edge out the Chicago Bears as another significant underdog. That is the case again in the Divisional Round as the Eagles face the daunting task of returning to the SuperDome where they were embarrassed in the regular season.

Now they have to deal with a well-rested New Orleans Saints (13-3) team who finished with the best record in the NFC which means they have home field advantage for as long as they remain in the Play Offs.

Key players were also given Week 17 off so there is perhaps some question as to whether the Saints are a little rusty facing a team who have essentially been playing Play Off Football for a number of weeks now.

Four wins in a row for the Eagles have come during a time when they were an underdog of 6.5 points and 13.5 points on the road and revenge is on the minds of the players who feel like New Orleans ran up the score. Nick Foles also didn't play in the regular season game and he has performed well enough for the Eagles to really believe he can make the difference despite the blow out nature of the first defeat.

Much of the pressure is going to be on Foles because the Eagles are going to have a very hard time running the ball against this Saints Defensive Line. Philadelphia really haven't found a consistent source of success on the ground anyway, but facing the Saints should only underline the point and that means the Quarter Back will have to drop back and look to make the big throws through the air.

Last week Foles made two errors with Interceptions, although only one of those was truly down to a poor decision on his part. He will feel his Offensive Tackles can at least give him time to make his throws, but both Jason Peters and Lane Johnson will be tested by the Saints' Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport who have been very good at getting to the Quarter Back for much of the season.

New Orleans will feel the Secondary have also been playing well enough to make some key stops through the air and it might be down to the Eagles Defensive unit to step up if they are going to knock the Saints off.

In recent games the Philadelphia much vaunted Defensive Line have stepped up their play and that has made it very difficult for teams to establish the run with consistency against them. Even the Bears had some problems so that will be a concern for the New Orleans Saints whose win against the Eagles in the regular season was sparked by the success that Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram were able to have on the ground.

Both players will still be leaned on this one and Kamara in particular is a big threat catching the ball out of the backfield. That may be a way to open things up on the Offensive Line, but New Orleans won't back away from the Eagles and Sean Payton will keep the Defensive unit as honest as possible.

The Eagles Defensive Line will also look to disrupt things up front with the strong pass rush they have been able to establish through four men. That is important for Philadelphia as it means they can drop more men into coverage and just challenge a New Orleans passing game which has not been playing at the level they were earlier in the season.

Drew Brees is still Drew Brees though and stopping the Saints completely is going to be very difficult, while the Eagles allowed Mitchell Trubisky to make some key throws through the air last week. Injuries in the Secondary haven't helped, but that makes even more important that the top players on the Defensive Line make things as awkward as possible for the Saints up front.

Philadelphia are in the same spot as the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers and that is playing their third consecutive road game inside the Play Offs where teams are 20-37-2 against the spread. The Eagles also have a poor 1-4 record against the spread in their last five games against the New Orleans Saints and I don't buy the 'magic' around a team who have had their fair share of luck in their last four Play Off games.

It is almost unimaginable that the Saints win by the margin they did in the regular season, but they should be well rested and I expect Drew Brees to have just enough time to carve up a banged up Philadelphia Secondary. In a shoot out I can't help but think Nick Foles makes a couple of big mistakes and that can see the Saints cover.

New Orleans have won all five Play Off games at home with Drew Brees at Quarter Back and those have come by an average of 11 points per game so I will look for the Saints to cover here and break what has been a strong run for the underdogs in the Play Offs over the last twelve months.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys + 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 4 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Wild Card Play Off Picks 2019 (January 5-6)

We have reached the NFL Play Offs and I am looking forward to the final month of the season where there is the potential for some huge stories to be written and some brilliant games to be played.

Wild Card Weekend looks a good one and I will add to this thread on Saturday evening.

However I wanted to at least place my Wild Card Picks from the Saturday games to be read during the day with the Sunday selections to come.


Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans Pick: Two teams coming out of the AFC South will be playing each other on Wild Card Weekend of the NFL Play Offs and the Houston Texans (11-5) and the Indianapolis Colts (10-6) both won one game against the other in the regular season. It was the road team who came away with the win in each of those regular season meetings and the Indianapolis Colts will feel good about their chances of doing that again when they return to Houston.

Both games were very close and very competitive after the Texans fought back in the second game to almost complete the comeback against the Colts. I fully expect this opening Wild Card Game to be a very good one too and I think we can all watch out for some big plays through the air as both teams are going to have some issues establishing the run.

Marlon Mack has been very good for the Colts to give the Offensive unit some balance, but he is now going up against a very strong Houston Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run all season. They've been even stronger in their last three games to close the regular season and while I don't think the Colts will completely ignore the run, I think Mack may be more effective catching short passes coming out of the backfield.

The Colts may also try running the ball in different ways than into the heart of the Houston Defensive Line, while another way to open things up on the ground is by getting the passing game going early and often. With Andrew Luck at Quarter Back I do think that is a viable option considering the holes we have seen in the Houston Secondary .

In their last game TY Hilton burned Houston constantly and he is still performing very well even through the knocks and niggles that is affecting his ability to practice. Eric Ebron is another big time target for the Colts and the Offensive Line will feel they can keep Luck's pocket pretty clean even though they are facing JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney trying to get into the backfield.

Giving Luck even a semblance of time should see the Colts moving the ball effectively and I think that will shift the pressure onto Houston to perhaps have to keep up with them.

Like the Colts, Houston may not be able to establish the run in the traditional way in this game. Lamar Miller hasn't had much success against the Texans in the 2018 season and I think he won't find it much easier against the Indianapolis Defensive Line which has been strong up front thanks to some good play from their Linebackers.

Much pressure will be shouldered by their own Quarter Back but Deshaun Watson has led Clemson to the National Championship and is very confident in his position. His legs may be as important as his arm in this one as he can help run the read-option very well, while scrambling away from pressure is going to be key for Watson if he is going to move the ball.

Houston's Offensive Line has struggled to protect Watson so I imagine the Colts will be able to get into the backfield whenever they have Houston in obvious passing downs and the Quarter Back is likely going to be Sacked a few times. However he can move around and also take off for big yards, which is very important in this game, and Watson can always throw the ball up to DeAndre Hopkins who comes down with anything within his wingspan.

I can definitely see Watson having some success throwing the ball too in what could be a fun game, but the Houston Offensive Line problems are going to be costly for them in my opinion. The pressure on Watson is likely going to lead to some key Sacks and potentially turnovers which should give the Colts the edge and I can see why the sharps have been on them earlier in the week to trim this spread.

The road team has been very strong in this series between two Divisional rivals and Indianapolis are 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six games in Houston. The underdog is 5-2-2 against the spread in the last nine in the series too which strengthens my feeling that the Colts can win this game outright.

The Texans are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record, while Indianapolis have covered in their last six against winning teams. Andrew Luck's Play Off experiences may just give him the edge over Deshaun Watson even though the latter has won big College games previously, while the Offensive Line issues for Houston could be costly and definitely something to fix in the Draft.

I will take the points on offer with the road team here.


Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The second Wild Card Game of the weekend is yet another rematch, but this time the Dallas Cowboys (10-6) will host the Seattle Seahawks (10-6) as a Divisional winner. These teams met in the regular season in Seattle and the Seahawks were able to come away with the win, but both teams will believe they are in much better form when they face one another in arguably the best of the four Wild Card Games.

This is also another game that the layers are finding quite difficult to work out and giving Dallas the slight edge on the spread could have come down to the simple fact that they are hosting this game.

The Cowboys have won seven of their last eight games including a dead rubber against the New York Giants in Week 17, while the Seahawks have won six of their last seven games to earn a Wild Card spot. There is a difference with the home/road record of the Cowboys which puts them in a good position to win this game and that is they are 7-1 at home this season, although this has the makings of a very close game.

Both teams have been built to run the ball and the team that can establish the run best is going to win this game. I feel like Dallas may have the slight edge there when you see how well their Defensive Line has clamped down on the run for much of the 2018 regular season.

However there is no doubt that the Cowboys have performed much better at home when defending the run and that could put Seattle in a very difficult position to find the consistency to move the ball. On the other hand Ezekiel Elliot should be well rested having missed the win over the Giants in Week 17 and he is facing a Seattle Defensive Line that has not been able to play the run as well as they would have liked.

There has been a few issues for the Dallas Offensive Line in getting Elliot established, but the presence of Amari Cooper means Seattle can't focus on loading the box. It should give Elliot and Dallas the chance to establish the run and that can make life all the more comfortable for Dak Prescott.

I am not completely convinced Prescott is the long-term answer at Quarter Back for Dallas and a big decision needs to be made soon about whether the Cowboys want to invest in him. He can make some big time throws, but Prescott can overthrow wide open Receivers when not at his best although the rapport with Amari Cooper means Dallas should have some success throwing the ball.

Being in third and manageable spots means Prescott can avoid being put under severe pressure by the Seattle pass rush and I do think that is the key to the outcome of this game.

While I see Dallas having success running the ball, I did say it will be difficult for Seattle to do the same. If that is the case the Cowboys Defensive Ends should be able to penetrate the backfield and put Russell Wilson under immense pressure when he drops back to throw, especially if he is in third and long spots.

Wilson is a very good Quarter Back and someone I respect for everything he has achieved in his career. There is no doubt he can escape some of the pressure with his scrambling ability and Wilson may be the top passer on the run which means the Dallas Secondary will be asked to cover speedy and tricky Receivers for a long time.

With that in mind I do think Seattle will have success throwing the ball, but Dallas have been performing very well Defensively and the home performances suggest the Cowboys may just edge this one. I expect a little more consistency from the Cowboys and only a really poor day from Dak Prescott is going to hard to overcome with the Dallas Defense perhaps stepping up and winning the game for their team.

Both teams have some very good trends and some very poor ones that can be pointed to, but I do think Dallas are the better team in most areas barring Quarter Back. Winning in the trenches is so important at Play Off time and that is where I do think the Cowboys can beat Seattle and I think that will lead to the home team moving on to a possible rematch with the New Orleans Saints.

I hate opposing Russell Wilson who can be huge in big games, but I don't think the Seattle Offensive Line will do enough to help him win this one.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: There are two NFL rematches being played in Saturday's Wild Card Games and the opening Play Off Game on Sunday features another. It has only been two weeks since the Baltimore Ravens (10-6) kept their Play Off hopes alive with a win on the West Coast against the Los Angeles Chargers (12-4) and that means they also have the chance to host this Play Off Game on the East Coast and in the early time slot which should favour the home team.

The Week 16 win for the Ravens over the Chargers had big implications for Los Angeles too as they were handed the Number 5 spot in the AFC despite finishing with the second best record in the Conference. If they had won the game at home they would have been enjoying a Bye Week in the Wild Card Round and will also have had home field advantage throughout the Play Offs.

Being on the road won't be a massive concern for the Chargers though as they finished with the best road record in the AFC.

Having had a week to see Lamar Jackson up close should also help the Chargers who could not have played as poorly as they did in Week 16. Philip Rivers admitted he set the negative tempo by throwing an Interception to open that game, but he will be boosted by the return of Melvin Gordon at Running Back and Keenan Allen at Wide Receiver.

Allen played in Week 16 but he should be much healthier now as the Chargers get set to take on a very strong Baltimore Defensive unit that may only be second to the Chicago Bears of the teams who made the Play Offs. The Chargers know that Rivers can't make the back-breaking mistakes that he did in Week 16 if they are going to turn the tide in this Play Off Game, but the key could be the return of Gordon at Running Back.

As strong as the Ravens have been at clamping down on the run, Gordon is a special Running Back and the Chargers will need him to keep the Baltimore Defensive unit honest. Melvin Gordon could have some success in this one, while he will also be important for Rivers coming out of the backfield as the safety valve if plays are not open down the field.

Staying in third and manageable is the key for the Chargers if they are going to move the chains because the Offensive Line has not played as well as they would have liked in recent games. It has seen Rivers put under significant pressure, but that will change if they are able to run the ball and at least slow down any pass rush.

Turnovers will be key on this side of the ball as the Chargers look to avoid the mistakes that cost them in what was a very close game two weeks ago.

The Chargers Defensive unit will also feel they have some strong tape on Lamar Jackson now and that should give them a chance to at least find a way to confuse the rookie Quarter Back. Most will know what to expect as Jackson has sparked the Baltimore running game, but the Chargers are decent up front and I do think the experience of facing this Quarter Back once will see them find a way to make some big plays on the line of scrimmage.

It won't be easy for Los Angeles to clamp down completely on the run-option plays that the Ravens will run. With the ability Jackson has he is sure to help crack some big plays, but the key for the Chargers is to force him to have to throw the ball to keep the chains moving during the game.

There are some holes in the Los Angeles Secondary, but I am not sure Baltimore will be able to expose them as much as some of the other teams in the Play Offs. The pass rush up front should also be able to make some plays in the backfield and I do think the Chargers can overcome some of the factors outside of their control like the venue of the game and the kick off time to cover the spread.

The road team and the underdog have been strong against the spread when the Chargers and Ravens have played in recent seasons. It was Baltimore who covered as the road underdog in Week 16, but I think the Chargers can flip the script this time.

Both teams have been very good in Play Off Games in recent years, but the Baltimore Ravens are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games at home. Over the last few years the Chargers have improved to 21-8-1 against the spread in their last thirty road games and I like them here with a full Field Goal worth of points to start with.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears Pick: Last season the Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) finished as the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, but an injury to Carson Wentz meant they were the underdog in all three post-season games played including the Super Bowl. Nick Foles did not let the Eagles down though and the overpowering Defensive unit helped the Eagles to win the Super Bowl and they thrived as the underdog.

I fully expect the Eagles to use that underdog tag again during the Play Offs this time around as they snuck their way into the post-season. Once again it is Foles who is going to lead the team at Quarter Back and I have to think the character of this team means they won't be thankful to the Chicago Bears (12-4) for helping them back into the Play Offs but instead be slighted by them.

Simply put, the Bears knew by half time of their game in Week 17 that they would be finishing with the Number 3 Seed in the NFC as the Los Angeles Rams were winning comfortably to lock up the Number 2 Seed. At that point the Chicago Bears were either going to the play the Minnesota Vikings or the Philadelphia Eagles in Wild Card Weekend and they had the chance to pick their opponent.

Playing hard to beat the Vikings helped the Eagles into the Play Offs, but Philadelphia have to have been telling themselves that the Bears feel they are the 'easier' team to meet in the Play Offs. Personally I think Chicago just had a policy in place to play hard in Week 17 and this is a Defensive unit that doesn't take snaps off which meant it was simply unfortunate for the Vikings to run into them.

Beating the Bears is not going to be easy for any team in the NFC Play Offs and I really think this is a team that makes the Super Bowl as long as Mitchell Trubisky can play three clean games before the big one in Atlanta.

Trubisky is not an elite Quarter Back and can still make some big mistakes at times, but he is also capable of doing what Nick Foles did last season for the Eagles and that is make sure he leans on the Defense and has one or two big games in the maximum four post-season games the Bears will play.

The Bears are very much a power running team that will use some misdirection while putting their Quarter Back in a position to make plays with his arm and legs from short down and distances. In recent weeks the likes of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have been huge for Chicago and they will feel they can give the Eagles Defensive Line some real problems up front, even though Philadelphia have been rounding into great form in the trenches.

There remain some significant holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by Trubisky if he is close to his best. The pass rush pressure can be cooled if the Bears can run the ball as they wish to, and I do also expect Matt Nagy to set his young Quarter Back up in some good situations to make plays in this one.

I can't emphasise enough the key is for Chicago to make sure they don't make any mistakes Offensively and give their Defensive unit the best possible field position to make some big plays and put their team in a position to win.

Nick Foles has found some magic once again, but he has likely played his last home game for the Eagles and will be looking to sign off with a second Super Bowl win. However Foles is banged up and now faces a relentless Chicago Bears Defensive unit and I do wonder how much success he will have in this Play Off Game.

The problem for the Eagles is that they won't really be able to establish the run that effectively with Chicago strong on the Defensive Line. That means Foles may need more time to make his plays and that puts him in a position where Khalil Mack will be breathing down his neck and also test his ribs out after they were banged up last week.

Chicago have been producing a very strong pass rush and they should be able to pressurise Foles, while the Defensive Backs have been able to turn the ball over. That could be the key for the Bears who I believe can keep the turnovers coming in the post-season as they have in the regular season and I think they can cover what is a big spread on paper.

The Bears will be disappointed they couldn't secure a home game in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but they can improve their 16-4-1 record against the spread from their last twenty-one games at Soldier Field. I can't help respect how well the Eagles did as the underdog in the Play Offs twelve months ago, but they are 1-4 against the spread in Wild Card Games and I am not sure Nick Foles will find the same magic as last season to win at a very tough venue where Chicago have been thriving.

MY PICKS: Indianapolis Colts + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers + 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

NFL Play Off Picks 2018- Championship Games (January 21st)

There are now only three games left in the 2017 NFL season and this weekend we will get to see both AFC and NFC Champions crowned and the Super Bowl set up in two weeks time.

The Divisional Round was better than I thought it was going to be with a fantastic Sunday as the two games played went down to the wire.

It will take a long time to see a better finish than the one in the Minnesota Vikings game against the New Orleans Saints, even if I was a little disappointed to see the Saints going down the way they did.

Now it feels like the New England Patriots are clear favourites to win the Super Bowl and defend the Championship they won last season. However the Minnesota Vikings will feel confident with the Super Bowl being played in their home Stadium, while both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles have shown they can upset the odds by simply making it to the Championship Game.

Hopefully we will see a couple of games that come close to the quality games we saw last Sunday.

Onto the NFL Championship Game picks.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots Pick: I only had myself to blame for believing in the Pittsburgh Steelers to want to bounce back from the regular season loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars and finding their way into the Championship Game. It became very clear in their loss to the Jaguars that the Pittsburgh Defensive unit was not going to be good enough to get off the field and the Steelers did all they could Offensively before coming up short.

The Jacksonville Jaguars will head to the New England Patriots for the AFC Championship Game after the Patriots recovered from a slow start to crush the Tennessee Titans on Saturday. The Titans finished behind the Jaguars in the AFC South in the regular season, but it was the Titans who won both gams and that should underline the size of the task in front of the Jaguars.

That is perhaps not represented by the spread which sees the New England Patriots come in as the same size favourite to beat the Jaguars as the Pittsburgh Steelers were.

Much of that may be down to the fact that Tom Brady suffered a hand injury during the week which had the Patriots scrambling for a MRI to determine how bad things were for their Quarter Back. Losing Brady would be a huge blow for the Patriots, but it sounds like it was a big scare and one where Brady has avoided a serious injury.

The doubt around his status has perhaps contributed to the number in this Championship Game, but it does feel weird that the Patriots are only considered a point better than the Jaguars. Last week the New England Patriots were asked to cover almost two Touchdown worth of points against the Tennessee Titans and this number looks out of sync.

Of course Brady and the Patriots have to respect the Defensive unit they are playing against, but the Jaguars did give up some big plays against the Steelers last week. While the Patriots don't have the same level of talent as Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski and the Running Back committee have played well enough to keep the chains moving for New England in this one.

Some will look at the pass rush that the Jaguars have as a strong means of slowing down New England and I do think they will have success rattling Tom Brady. However this is a player with so much experience to find the holes that Pittsburgh exploited last week and I do think the Patriots can have a big day Offensively.

Jacksonville will need the Defensive unit to bounce back from what was a rougher than expected outing in the Divisional Round. It is hard to think Blake Bortles and the Jaguars are going to have as much success as they did against the Pittsburgh Steelers in this game against a Bill Belichick Defensive unit.

There is little doubt that New England have given up some big yards at times, but they are a bend, don't break, Defensive unit and there are reasons to believe they can force Bortles into a couple of key mistakes. Overall this season the Patriots have struggled against the run, but that has been an area of improvement and right now they are playing so well on the Defensive Line that the Patriots will believe they can win up front.

With Leonard Fournette banged up and being limited in practice, the Running Back may struggle to move the chains as well as he did last week in Pittsburgh. That is only going to increase the pressure on Bortles who can't expect to have the clear gaps in the New England Defensive unit that he saw at Heinz Field.

For starters the Patriots have a very strong Secondary who have found a way to be very effective against the pass, and this Jacksonville Receiving corps will have a tough time beating them out. Add in a strong pass rush that demolished the Tennessee Titans last week and I think the Jaguars could have difficulties moving the chains with any consistency in this one.

Bortles has yet to make a really bad mistake in the Play Offs, but I can see Belichick setting up for a couple in this game and I am going to assume Tom Brady is good to go for the New England Patriots.

It is a big number when you think of how well Jacksonville have played Defensively and there has been some big talk coming from a young unit. However I don't think they played well enough in the Divisional Round to think that would be good enough again and I think Tom Brady will find the holes to exploit them.

I like the Patriots here and I think they can win this one by double digits with a late Bortles Interception sealing yet another trip to the Super Bowl.


Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: They have already upset one team as a home underdog in the Play Offs and the Philadelphia Eagles will be trying to use the motivation of 'no one believing in us' to help them make the Super Bowl at the expense of the Minnesota Vikings.

The win over the Atlanta Falcons was a huge one for the Eagles, but they needed a goal line stand at the end of the game to secure the victory. Much of that was down to the Defensive unit holding the Falcons to just 10 points and the Eagles will be looking for that unit to lead the way to any success they have in the NFC Championship Game.

While the Eagles won a tight game on Saturday with a huge stand, the Minnesota Vikings were almost certainly out of the Play Offs with time ticking down and one play to go. Somehow the 'Miracle of Minneapolis' took place as Case Keenum found a pass to Stefon Diggs who was completely missed by Safety Marcus Williams on the tackle and ran the ball into the End Zone for the game winning Touchdown.

It has to be the most remarkable finish to any NFL game in a long time, perhaps since the New England Super Bowl win over the Seattle Seahawks. Picking yourself emotionally from such a performance can be difficult, but I imagine the Minnesota Vikings will be keen to become the first team to play a Super Bowl at home and snap a 0-5 record in the Championship Game since 1977.

Like the Philadelphia Eagles, the Minnesota Vikings will believe their Defensive unit is strong enough to lay the foundations for success in this Championship Game. The difference will come through the successes of the two Offenses that will take to the field.

There is little doubt that Philadelphia have not looked the same with Nick Foles at Quarter Back instead of Carson Wentz and they were limited to 15 points in the win over the Falcons a week ago. Scoring points against this Vikings Defense will be an even tougher test and I am not going to worry about the way Drew Brees moved the chains as he is vastly superior at Quarter Back than Foles.

The Vikings begin on the Defensive Line and making sure they are not allowing teams to establish the run against them. Last week it was the Brees success throwing the ball in the second half which got the run game back on track. but the Eagles first thought will be to run the ball and that is not going to be easy.

This time there is no Brees to worry about in the passing game and the Vikings will feel they can get pressure on Foles and force some errant throws. Maybe the short passes to the Running Backs coming out of the backfield can have some success, but ultimately there won't be a lot of consistency from the Eagles Offensively and so the pressure will be on the Defensive unit to make the big plays.

Case Keenum didn't have a huge game last week against New Orleans, but he made some top throws during the Divisional Round Game and the winning one to Stefon Diggs will always be remembered, especially if the Vikings can go all the way and win the Super Bowl. Not much was expected from Keenum this season, but he has come in and taken over the starting Quarter Back job and this feels like a game that will come down on his shoulders.

Like the Minnesota Vikings, the Philadelphia Defensive Line have been strong against the run and they will believe they can force the Quarter Back to try and beat them through the air. The Eagles have a tough Secondary too so it will up to Diggs and Adam Thielen to make the big catches and create the separation from the Defensive Backs to aid Keenum in this one.

It really feels like a close game and last season the Vikings did come to the Philadelphia Eagles as a 3 point favourite only to lose the game. The Eagles Defensive Line created havoc that day, but I think Keenum is able to escape some of the pressure with his scrambles better than Foles will be able to do for the Eagles.

That slight difference may change the entire complexion of the Championship Game and I do think the Vikings will be able to beat the Eagles. The Minnesota Defensive unit can make some big plays to help win the field battle and I think Case Keenum and the team will play with a confidence that comes from the big play that ended the Divisional Round Game.

Maybe the Vikings feel it is their destiny to play in the home Super Bowl after the crazy finish to the win over New Orleans and I think they have the better Offensive unit on the field in this one. It'll be close and nip and tuck for a while, but I like the Vikings to just have the bigger plays in a win and a cover on the road.

Philadelphia used the motivation of being the home underdog to a success last week and they remain dangerous with that mind set going into the weekend. However I can't see the Offense having a lot of success and the Vikings can make their way into the Super Bowl for the first time in a generation.

MY PICKS: New England Patriots - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 3 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Play Off Picks 2018- Divisional Round (January 13-14)

And then there were eight.

The NFL 2017 season is fast approaching it's conclusion and we are now down to just seven games left to determine the Super Bowl winner.

It's funny- when the season begins in early September it feels like it is a long road to the Super Bowl, but before you know it we are deep into the Play Offs and there are not many games left to go.

The final eight teams in the Play Offs look like they could produce some fireworks once we get to the Championship Round and the Super Bowl, but the Divisional Round looks a little underwhelming like the Wild Card Round did.

Now I am not sure if that is down to two underdogs prevailing last week, because the Atlanta Falcons were one and look a really dangerous team at this moment, or whether the 12 teams who began the Play Offs were not as good as their records indicated.

The Buffalo Bills, Tennessee Titans, Kansas City Chiefs didn't leap off the page, while key injuries have hurt the Philadelphia Eagles to the extent that they are the home underdog in the Play Offs. That is the first time the Number 1 Seed has been set as the underdog in the Divisional Round which shows how much of an impact the loss of Carson Wentz has on that team.

Blake Bortles and Case Keenum are not the most fashionable of Quarter Backs but they are riding two very good Defensive units in Jacksonville and Minnesota and all in all it does feel like the games are not as good as you may expect in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.

Of course I could be wrong and we get four fantastic games over two days this weekend.


Last week the Wild Card Round Picks went 2-2 after opening with two wins on Saturday and falling down twice on Sunday. It was a frustrating Sunday with the Jaguars holding Buffalo to just 3 points and still not being able to get over the number, while the New Orleans Saints seemed to be in control of their game with the Carolina Panthers until the final six minutes when they gave up a long Touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey and then saw the Panthers driving for the win inside the final two minutes.

A little more luck would be nice on a weekend where the four underdogs all covered against the spread.

Onto the Divisional Round Picks.


Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: A few weeks ago this could easily have been the best game in the NFL Divisional Round of the Play Offs with the Super Bowl Runners Up Atlanta Falcons picking up some real momentum before heading into Philadelphia to take on the Number 1 Seed Eagles.

The second Carson Wentz went down with an injury that is going to keep him out of action for several months the naysayers about the Eagles chances to reach the Super Bowl came out in force. Wentz has been a huge bonus at Quarter Back for Philadelphia and the drop off to Nick Foles has become more apparent in each passing start from the latter.

Any hopes that Foles could repeat what he did for Chip Kelly a few years ago have all but disappeared and it has led to the Eagles being the first Number 1 Seed to be set as the underdog in the Divisional Round of the Play Offs.

You have to imagine the entire Philadelphia organisation are going to be well aware they have been set as the underdog and the 'no one believes in us' mentality could put them in a good place. They are facing a team who have had to travel to the West Coast to win a Wild Card Game against the Los Angeles Rams seven days ago and the Eagles are well rested to at least give the Atlanta Falcons all they can handle.

However it is difficult to know how the Eagles will be able to compete unless their Defensive unit produces their best game of the season.

The Eagles have only allowed 16 points across their last two regular season games which will offer encouragement, but this Atlanta Offensive unit looks to be rounding into close to the form which took them all the way to the Super Bowl last year. Philadelphia have to win at the line of scrimmage and prevent the Atlanta Falcons from establishing the run and that certainly looks like something they will be capable of doing which will give the Eagles every chance of keeping the Falcons in third and long situations.

Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman won't be completely shut down if they are not able to run the ball as they would like as both are very good pass catching Running Backs that can find ways to influence games. However they won't be expecting a lot of room up front as the Atlanta Offensive Line have struggled to open the big running lanes without holding onto Defensive players in recent games, and so both Freeman and Coleman will have to help Matt Ryan as a safety blanket in the passing game.

Atlanta's Offensive Line has not only struggled to open up the run, but they have had some tough times preventing the pass rush from getting to Ryan. That has to be a concern for the Falcons as they won't want Ryan throwing from third and long and with a bunch of pressure around him, but there are holes in the Secondary that the Quarter Back could exploit.

Steve Sarkisian has to produce a game plan that sees Atlanta come out throwing and perhaps that is the best way to open up the run for their solid Running Back duo. With the Eagles having a few issues in the Secondary, Atlanta have the Receivers to win their battles and move the chains through the air, although Matt Ryan will have to look after the ball against a ball-hawking Secondary that thrives on turnovers.

It might mean the Falcons are settling for more Field Goals than they would like, but Dan Quinn has to be comfortable with that considering how well his Defensive unit played last week against the powerful Los Angeles Rams Offense.

There has been a definite improvement by Atlanta Defensively since the injuries have begun to clear up and they have not allowed more than 23 points in any of their last seven games. Holding the Rams to 10 points is very impressive and this is a team who will dare Nick Foles to beat them by making sure they contain the triple team Running Backs that the Philadelphia Eagles will trot out to the field.

The Eagles have had a little more difficulty running the ball since Wentz went down as Foles does not command the same respect as the former Number 2 overall Draft Pick. I imagine the Atlanta Falcons will also play their Linebackers and Safeties a little closer to the line of scrimmage to force Foles into having to throw the ball or at least keeping Philadelphia in third and long spots.

It does feel like Atlanta will be successful doing that now they have more faith in a Secondary that is playing up to the talent level they have. With Foles struggling to get through his reads, he is also likely going to be put under pressure by a solid Philadelphia pass rush when he does drop back to throw the ball, while the other concern is that Foles is not as accurate with his passes and the Falcons have shown they can turn the ball over in their last few games as they moved into Play Off mode.

That seems to give the Falcons the edge on both sides of the ball with more faith in Matt Ryan to make big plays from the Quarter Back position than Nick Foles. There could be a few big plays by the Defensive units as both teams will likely need to take to the air to move the chains, while Sacks are also likely to play a big part in the eventual victory.

I am expecting that victory to come down in the favour of the road favourites who look to be in a much better shape than the Eagles at this moment of time. If Carson Wentz played it would feel a totally different game, but Nick Foles has gotten worse and worse over his three starts and I don't think there is enough time to really get him straightened out.

I wouldn't be surprise if Foles makes an unexpectedly good start to the game, but Atlanta can make the adjustments and turn this game back in their favour. A home underdog in the Play Offs would usually widen the eyes, but the Eagles look in an incredibly tough spot and I would be happy to lay the Field Goal worth of points in this one. It is possible you will be able to find a few 2.5 spreads which is clearly the better way to go, but I feel comfortable in believing the Falcons come back and win by around a Touchdown in the first Divisional Round Game of the weekend.


Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots Pick: After a story came out on ESPN that the New England Patriots were being split by a feud between Robert Kraft/Tom Brady and Bill Belichick, some may have been wondering whether the Patriots were about to implode. Those thoughts should have quickly been moved on when thinking this disarray happened in the midst of another season where New England have finished with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and they are a big favourite in this Divisional Round Game.

The Patriots likely think the Tennessee Titans did them a big favour by coming back from 18 points down to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card Game last Saturday. The Chiefs look to have matched up pretty well with New England and had already blown them out at Foxboro in the regular season, although either way I could only see the Patriots as a big favourite to win whoever they faced.

Tennessee have confirmed that Mike Mularkey is going to return as Head Coach in the 2018 season, although some issues behind the scenes means it is not guaranteed that the Head Coach himself will agree in the off-season. Mularkey has been criticised for much of the season and would have been fired if the Titans had lost last week so he can be grateful to the huge comeback win as Tennessee almost backed into the post-season.

It is a huge ask for the Titans to now come into Foxboro and beat the Patriots and the layers agree with a big number on the spread. The Titans have been an Offensive unit that have been accused of being a little bland with their approach as they try and dictate things behind a strong running game, but DeMarco Murray looks set to miss out again.

Derrick Henry showed with a couple of big runs that he is more than capable as the starting Running Back, but he is going up against a New England Defensive unit that have improved against the run. Bill Belichick would have made note of the way the Titans played last week and I think the Patriots will make sure that Henry is not able to pick up some momentum and then force Marcus Mariota to try and make special plays again from the Quarter Back position.

Mariota did what he needed to do last week, including a huge block for the final run of the game from Henry which iced the game for the Titans. However he is now facing a Belichick Defensive unit who will try and bamboozle him, while playing from third and long all evening is not going to be what the Tennessee Titans will want to see.

The Quarter Back can make some plays with his arms and legs, but this New England Secondary is far more talented than the one Mariota just dissected in Kansas City. They also have a much better pass rush which should move the Quarter Back off his spots and a Secondary will be looking to make some big plays to turn the ball over which could mean a tough day in the office all around for this Tennessee Offense.

That does not look to be the case for the New England Patriots despite the drop off from Tom Brady at Quarter Back over the last few weeks. It is something to keep an eye on, especially at Brady's age, and it is entirely possible we may be seeing the first signs of a decline from the future Hall of Famer.

An article pointing out the similarities with Peyton Manning's end of career really shines a light on the recent Brady numbers, but this is a big chance to show there is plenty left in the tank. The Patriots will certainly want to see that having decided to trade away Jimmy Garoppolo during the regular season, and Brady is facing a Tennessee Secondary that has struggled mightily to stop the pass.

The Titans have a decent front seven, but it is also possible to run the ball effectively against them and New England won't shy away from the run like the Kansas City Chiefs did last weekend. The Chiefs decision is all the more baffling when you think they were leading by 18 points at half time, but the Patriots are a team that likes the balance running the ball gives their Offensive unit and I think they can have success establishing the run.

Of course that is also important to negate the pass rush which has been rattling Brady more than you would think in recent games. Running the ball will just give him slightly more time and Brady has shown throughout his career that he is able to dissect the Dick LeBeau Defensive unit that he will see on Saturday.

Brady's numbers against LeBeau Defenses makes for great reading for the Patriots and he is 6-2 against his teams since 2004. That includes a blow out win in the Play Offs as New England hung 41 points on LeBeau's Defense and I think there are big holes in the Tennessee Secondary that can be exploited by the Quarter Back with the assumption that recent form is temporary and Brady's class remains at a high level.

He has Receivers who can take the top off the Defense through Brandin Cooks, while Rob Gronkowski is a player that the Titans will struggle to have an answer for. It feels like the Patriots will be able to do much of what they like and that will put the pressure on Mariota and the Tennessee Titans to try and play keep up.

Ultimately I think they will be unsuccessful in doing that and I like the Patriots to find a way to pull away for a big win. Mariota will make good looking plays at times, but I can see a couple of back breaking turnovers which sees New England pull away and then cover what is a very big number for a Divisional Round Play Off Game.

Since losing in the Divisional Round to the New York Jets in 2011, New England have won six straight games in this Round. Blow outs have not been uncommon with four of those wins coming by 13 points or more and three of them by at least 18 points including last season against the Houston Texans.

With Tennessee on back to back road games, I think the Titans will be forced out of their comfort zone as they move away from the run in a shoot out. That should be the difference maker in the game and I like the New England Patriots to win and cover in this Divisional Round Game.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The big question going into this Divisional Round Play Off Game is whether or not the Jacksonville Jaguars can suffocate the Pittsburgh Steelers as they did in a 30-9 win in Pittsburgh during the regular season? While both teams will point out the 'evolution' of the teams since then, the Jaguars continue to rely on the Defensive unit that absolutely hammered Ben Roethlisberger that day, including 5 Interceptions and two of those going back to the house.

It has placed some intrigue into this Divisional Round Game after the Jaguars took care of business in the Wild Card Round with a 10-3 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Defensive unit were dominant and made up for a skittish performance from Blake Bortles and this is a team who won in Pittsburgh despite of Bortles once already this season.

Barring an unlikely Super Bowl win, Jacksonville have some big questions to answer about Bortles and whether they should move for another Quarter Back via Free Agency or a trade in the off-season. You do feel the Jaguars are a competent Quarter Back away from perhaps being the team to beat in the AFC, but for now it is Bortles who will hold the keys to the Offense.

Jacksonville will just be asking from a clean performance from Bortles and instead rely very much on their ability to run the ball. Keeping Bortles in a position where he doesn't have to force plays could be critical for the Jaguars, but I do think the Offensive unit have a better chance of moving the chains consistently this week than they did against the Bills last week.

For one I expect a less nervy performance from Bortles who was making his first Play Off start a week ago. The Jaguars are also facing a Pittsburgh Defensive unit that have not looked the same since Ryan Shazier went down with a scary looking injury and the absence of one of the best Linebackers in the NFL has been felt.

That has impacted on the running game and Pittsburgh may struggle to contain Jacksonville on the ground which should open things up for Bortles and also put the Jaguars in a position for the upset. There is a chance that the Steelers will sell out to stop the run and rely on their Secondary to win their battles with the Jacksonville Wide Receivers and this is going to be a key to the game.

Stopping the run will allow Pittsburgh's pass rushers to really get after Bortles who may have to rely on his legs to scramble for a few First Downs himself. Keeping Bortles in obvious passing situations will also be a big test for a Quarter Back who never seems that far away from throwing a critical Interception, which may be underlined against a Pittsburgh Secondary who have been able to make some big plays through the air.

However it does feel that Jacksonville can have some success controlling the clock and churning out yards on the ground as long as this game is close. With the Defensive unit they have, the Jaguars will certainly feel like they can remain in this game and have every chance of the upset, but they will be challenged by a Pittsburgh Offense that will want to make amends for the blow out loss at home to this same team earlier in the season.

Roethlisberger and Le'Veon Bell are in better shape than when these teams met earlier in the season, while JuJu Smith-Schuster has made a real impact at Receiver for the team. With Antonio Brown back in practice, the Steelers may feel they have a much better Offensive unit than the one that played the Jaguars earlier in the season.

Bell won't have an easy task in establishing the run against a Jaguars Defensive Line which has been much stouter since acquiring Marcel Dareus in a trade from the Buffalo Bills. They played well enough against LeSean McCoy last week too, but this time they are facing a healthy Running Back whose hesitation moves may just find a little more daylight than other teams have in recent weeks.

The Running Back is also a key player in the passing game with an ability to get open and make tacklers miss when Big Ben does look to him as the safety blanket. With Bell, Smith-Schuster and Brown in the Receiving positions, Roethlisberger should have more successes than in the defeat to Jacksonville earlier in the season and I think the Quarter Back is playing well enough to give this Jaguars Secondary some problems.

The battle at the line of scrimmage will be key as Pittsburgh's Offensive Line tries to contain the Jacksonville pass rush for long enough to give Roethlisberger the time to make his plays. Throwing under pressure will be difficult against a very good Jaguars Secondary, but Roethlisberger will also believe his Receivers can win their individual battles and allow him to make plays down the field.

Smith-Schuster's improvement could be a key to opening things up for the Steelers who also have Martavis Bryant capable of taking the top off the Defense. I do think Pittsburgh will have learned a lot from the defeat to Jacksonville earlier in the season and this Offensive unit can call the right plays to move the chains and get into a position to win the game.

It will certainly be a close one, and that may suggest taking the points with the road underdog is the way to go. However I don't believe this Jaguars team are capable of recovering if they fall a couple of scores behind as the Steelers Defensive unit can then get after Bortles and rattle him into making some big mistakes.

As well as Jacksonville have played Defensively, they will need all the chips to fall in their favour as they did when winning by 21 points here a few months ago. Roethlisberger has been playing much better now than he was then and I just can't see the Quarter Back imploding in the same manner as he did when first facing this Defensive unit.

Having seen them once is a big bonus and I think the Steelers are in much better shape now. I also just can't trust Bortles to help the Jacksonville Jaguars Offense score enough points to keep this one in hand and I am looking for Pittsburgh to cover a big number.

A small sample also shows a team scoring 10 points or fewer in a Play Off win have really struggled in the next Round. Two teams have done that before and both were beaten comfortably in the next Round and I am going to take the Pittsburgh Steelers to cover and make it a third favourite to win and cover in the Divisional Round of games.

Pittsburgh have been a strong home favourite in the Play Offs under Mike Tomlin and the revenge angle should have the players all focused to come out and produce a much more complete effort than the first game with the Jaguars.


New Orleans Saints @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: There are two Divisional Round Games to be played on Sunday which is a repeat of a regular season game and the second of those comes from Minnesota where the Vikings will host the New Orleans Saints. All the way back in Week 1 the Vikings beat New Orleans 29-19 at home, but a lot of things have changed since then.

That game was notable for Sam Bradford's three Touchdown passes and Adrian Peterson getting into an argument with Sean Payton on the sidelines. Bradford has been lost for the season at Quarter Back for the Vikings since then, while Peterson was traded away from the New Orleans Saints despite only being signed in the off-season.

Dalvin Cook was also the starting Running Back for Minnesota back in September, but he is another who has been lost for the season with an injury and so this Divisional Round Game does have a different feel.

The Minnesota Vikings actually come into the game as a bigger favourite than they were when the teams met in the regular season. That underlines how well the likes of Case Keenum and Latavius Murray have done when coming into the Minnesota team, while the Defensive unit may be the best in the NFL at all three levels.

Keenum has really enjoyed a career best year in Minnesota and he is sure to command some big money at the end of the season. Whether that will be here in Minnesota or elsewhere is yet to be seen, but there will be some pressure on Keenum who is making his first start in the NFL Play Offs this season.

Usually he would lean on the run to be established which can open things up in the passing game, but the Saints Defensive Line has stepped up their play in recent games. They held Carolina to 4 yards per carry which is impressive considering how much the Panthers have looked to dominate behind the run, and New Orleans dealing with a mobile Quarter Back like Cam Newton should mean they are ready for Keenum who is capable of scrambling for positive yards.

The Saints can then unleash what has been a very good pass rush that has improved outside of Cameron Jordan who is a star in the League already. Jordan and company should be able to get the better of the Minnesota Offensive Line in obvious passing downs and they will force Keenum to try and make plays outside of the pocket by collapsing the pocket effectively.

Keenum will feel there are areas for him to exploit too as the New Orleans Secondary have been guilty of giving up some big plays in their recent games. While much improved from last season, this is not a shut down Secondary and Keenum has weapons like Kyle Rudolph, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs who are capable of making big plays with the ball in their hands. Rudolph looks to be overcoming his ankle injury in time to take part in this game and the Vikings may need Keenum's arm at his best to move the chains down the field.

One aspect Keenum has to be aware of is that the Saints might give up big yards, but they are also capable of turning the ball over. Losing possessions to this New Orleans Offensive unit is not going to be the way to win the game and Minnesota have to play a clean game Offensively to make sure their Defensive unit can hold firm.

New Orleans will have to make some adjustments Defensively against a new look Minnesota Offensive unit, but they look like they are capable of matching up better this time around than in Week 1. However the Minnesota Defense will also feel they can make the adjustments against what is a more balanced Offensive team than the one they originally faced.

This time the Saints will look to feed their Running Back duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara to try and establish the run to open the pass. For much of the season Ingram and Kamara have been dominant, but the Minnesota Defensive Line is as good as it gets and I am not sure the Saints will have find any consistent running lanes in this one.

In recent games New Orleans have struggled to run the ball and instead they may need to use Ingram and Kamara in screens to try and open things up. Both are good pass catching Running Backs who are capable of making big plays in the open field, but it does feel this game is going to be similar to the Wild Card Game against Carolina with the Saints once again leaning on Drew Brees.

Brees is a Quarter Back with plenty of experience having won a Super Bowl before, and he has shown little sign of decline with his play from that position. He has been helped massively by the stronger running game employed by New Orleans, but showed last week that he can take a game on his shoulders and help the Saints to win through the air.

This week he is battling a better Secondary than the one he faced last week against Carolina, and it is going to be a big challenge for Brees to move the chains consistently with the pass. The Vikings pass rush is decent, but I don't think it will be a massive concern for Brees and the bigger worry is definitely going to be finding his Receivers in open space.

While the Panthers had some breakdowns in the Secondary, Minnesota have a strong set of Defensive Backs who will make it tough for New Orleans throughout this one.

Overall it does feel like this could be a lower scoring game than the layers expect. Picking a winner against the spread is difficult because I can make a case for both teams, but I am leaning ever so slightly towards the New Orleans Saints to cover, even in a backdoor situation as Minnesota play different coverages to help milk the clock in the Fourth Quarter.

My heavier lean is towards the 'under' being played in the total points market because I feel neither Defensive unit is going to give too much away. I feel both Defensive Lines can slow down the run which will make it tough for both Case Keenum and Drew Brees to throw the ball from third and long spots, and I would be surprised if either team scores more than 23 points in this one barring the Defensive units creating pick-sixes or fumbles returned to the house.

Minnesota are being backed by the sharp money with their superior Secondary likely to prove to be a difference maker, but I think the Saints will be in a position to win this game in the Fourth Quarter. I am concerned that the game goes into Overtime and scuppers the 'under' total points selection, but two Defensive units can show they are capable of shutting down the Offenses they face and I will look for a tight game in the final Divisional Round clash of the weekend.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings-New Orleans Saints Under 46.5 Total Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)