NFL Super Bowl LX Pick 2026- New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 8th February)

If you go back in time and let people know that this is the Super Bowl that will conclude the 2025 season, I am not sure there will be too many that would believe you.

It may not be quite up to the 'Back to the Future Part II' odds of the Chicago Cubs winning it all in that movie, but the Seahawks were 60-1 and the Patriots 80-1 in the pre-season odds to win the Super Bowl.

None of that matters to the fans of either teams and it will certainly not matter to the Coaching Staff and the players as they look to cement their place in history.

Out of the two teams, it really does feel like the Seattle Seahawks have a significant edge on both sides of the ball, but the NFL season has been a strange one from the start and it would not be a big surprise to anyone if the New England Patriots were to win the first Championship since Tom Brady departed as Quarter Back.

Many would have been hoping the Patriots were going to have to suffer through a long period without success having been the dominant team with Brady and Bill Belichick, but Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel have had plenty to say about that.

Of course there are big stories that can be completed on the other side with Sam Darnold's fight to finally be seen as one of the top players in the position perhaps being determined by the final result. The Seahawkss rebuild has to be admired and of course they have a British Defensive Co-Ordinator in Aden Durde who has been a remarkable success story for others to follow and has helped form a very strong Seattle Defense that looks to be the best unit on the field on either side of the ball.

This has been a tough season for the NFL Picks and snaps a strong run over the last couple of years.

Some of that has been down to what has been an incredibly inconsistent League and perhaps without adjustments being made quickly enough, but it is something to learn from over the next six months before a 'new game' begins.

My Super Bowl thoughts and Pick can be read below.

Super Bowl LX Pick: The AFC Champion New England Patriots (17-3) meet the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks (16-3) in the Super Bowl, which is the repeat of Super Bowl XLIX played in February 2015. That was a game one by the Patriots, but all Seattle fans will still remember the decision to throw the ball rather than handing it to Marshawn Lynch and seeing that pass Intercepted to prevent the Seahawks from repeating as Champions.

The Seahawks have not been back to the Big Game since then, while the New England Patriots won a couple more Super Bowls with Tom Brady at Quarter Back. The future Hall of Famer has also led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl success, but the New England Patriots had been struggling to find a Brady replacement until this season.

Drake Maye is not the most experienced, but the Quarter Back has been a key part of the turnaround for the Patriots who had won just eight games in the previous two seasons before this stunning 2025 season. Head Coach Mike Vrabel deserves a lot of credit for influencing this roster too, but New England will be the underdog when they face Seattle.

They deserve credit for getting past the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos, but it also should be stated that this has not exactly been a 'murderer's row' of opponents. The Chargers and Texans had glaring issues, which were exposed by the Patriots, while the Denver Broncos had to play with a backup Quarter Back and that did make a difference in a close game.

Much of the credit has to be given to the Patriots Defensive unit.

They have really stepped up and will need to be at their best against the Seattle Seahawks who got the better of two Divisional rivals San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams and who have definitely earned their place in the Super Bowl by taking on a much tougher schedule than the one New England have had to play.

All of that won't matter on Sunday in the Super Bowl when it is all about executing properly on the day.

While the Seattle Offensive unit have put up better numbers than the Patriots, the Defensive unit is the stronger for the Seahawks as it is for the AFC Champion.

With that said, it is going to be a game that feels like it is going to be decided by which of the two Defensive units is able to impose themselves the best.

The Line of Scrimmage is going to be really important when the Seahawks have the ball- they will want to keep Quarter Back Sam Darnold in third and manageable spots as much as possible and try and keep the pressure from someone who has had a history of struggling in big spots. Over the last month, Sam Darnold has not really had those moments, but there is always a concern about the Quarter Back until he proves there should not be and so the game plan will still involve seeing a lot of Kenneth Walker III.

He is going to be running behind a very good Seattle Offensive Line, but the Patriots have really had a good Playoff clamping down up front and this is going to be a key battleground. You have to feel the Patriots 'must' stop the run and try and see if they can put Sam Darnold in a position where he feels he has to win the game for Seattle, which can lead to mistakes, while the Seahawks missed Zach Charbonnet and his ability to not only pound the rock, but to be that safety blanket for the Quarter Back.

Throwing against this Secondary is going to be a big challenge for Sam Darnold- his favourite Receiver is likely going to be blanketed by New England's best Defensive Back, Christian Gonzalez, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba will be fighting for room, but that will mean focusing on the experience of Cooper Kuup and hoping that Rashid Shaheed can also take the top off the Secondary.

Seattle may ultimately decide that they don't want to make too many mistakes and play the field position and so running the ball is going to be key.

You can say the same on the other side of the ball.

While the Patriots Defensive Line have stepped up the level in the post-season, the Seattle Defensive Line has been one of the best at stopping the run through the campaign.

The Seahawks did have some trouble stopping the Los Angeles Rams running the ball, but that might have something to do with Matt Stafford at Quarter Back and the familiarity the teams had with one another. This time the Seattle game plan may be to ask Drake Maye to beat them with his arm, especially as he is playing behind an Offensive Line that have been much better at run blocking than pass protection.

New England will not shy away from what they want to do and will be happy to play the field position if they have to and that means they will continue to pound the rock for as long and as often as is needed.

Third and long spots will definitely favour the Seahawks who have a decent pass rush and who will certainly have seen the issues New England have had in giving Drake Maye time to throw down the field. Those issues have been compounded by the fact that Maye has struggled to hold onto the ball when he is being Sacked and it is those turnovers that could become a huge factor in the final outcome of the Super Bowl.

Drake Maye will make some plays- he can throw the ball to some experienced Receivers, while he showed he is willing to tuck the ball and run for First Downs when needed. That will help the New England Patriots, but it does feel like the Super Bowl could come down to which of the two Quarter Backs makes the fewest mistakes.

There is also a feeling that the Seattle Defensive unit is the superior of the two that will be on the field on Sunday and that is where the difference could be made with the likelihood that they can win the turnover battle.

The underdog has covered in each of the last five Super Bowls played, while four of those have ended with the underdog earning an outright win.

Everything is pointing to a low scoring game, which is not uncommon in recent Super Bowl games played, and that does make the spread a little more awkward. Having this many points gives the underdog a chance for a backdoor cover in the worst case, but there is an underlying feeling that the Seahawks are much more battle-hardened and have an Offensive unit capable of making one or two more plays than the Patriots.

Keeping stakes relatively low looks to be the best approach with a game that could come down to one or two plays, but the edge before kickoff is with the NFC Champion to win the Super Bowl for a second year in a row and with another cover in a winning effort.

MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.14 Units (2 Units Staked, - 7% Yield)

Divisional: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 51-66, - 20.45 Units (117 Units Staked, - 17.48% Yield)

NFL Super Bowl LIX Pick 2025 (Sunday 9th February)

A seven month wait for the next NFL game will begin on Sunday evening when Super Bowl LIX concludes the 2024 season.

Back in Week 2 of the season my early thoughts on the year had identified the Kansas City Chiefs as the favourites and the Philadelphia Eagles as a team that could have enough improvement to turn things around after the poor end to the 2023 season and with Head Coach Nick Sirianni barely clinging onto his role.

It has proven to be the right decision, even if Sirianni and the fans were not always reading from the same page during the season and a repeat of Super Bowl LVII looks a very strong way to end the season.

If the game is anything like that one two years ago, this could be a brilliant Super Bowl in New Orleans.

The NFL might not have any competitive action until early September following the Super Bowl, but this is not a sport that will be quiet over those months with teams preparing for the 2025 season.

Free Agency and the Draft will draw plenty of attention, while it has already been a big week for international fans of the NFL after news was announced that Melbourne, Madrid and Dublin will be hosting games featuring Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers as designated home teams. The fans in Australia will have to wait until 2026, but Madrid and Dublin join the international party later in the year.

London will still have three games and Berlin will host one too as the NFL continues to expand the boundaries of the sport and there could yet be further additions to the international schedule.

Another NFL season is going to finish with a positive return for the Picks on these pages and there can never be any complaints about that.

The Playoff results have been mixed, but the strong Wild Card Round has been the key to a positive post-season run too with just one more Pick to be made in the 2025 season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Two years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) edged out the Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) thanks to a Field Goal being scored with just eight seconds left in Super Bowl LVII.

There would have been a lot of regret on the Philadelphia sideline considering they had secured many more yards than the Kansas City Chiefs in the game and the Eagles were looking the stronger team as the game was ticking down in the Fourth Quarter.

Last season was a disappointing one for the Eagles, while the Kansas City Chiefs ended up repeating, but the two best teams in the NFL meet again in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans and there is plenty on the line for both.

For a team that has won seventeen games, there are still one or two questions about the Kansas City Chiefs that perhaps leads to some doubting their ability to become the first team to win three straight Championships in the Super Bowl era. It would be a remarkable achievement, but there is plenty of reason to think that the Philadelphia Eagles are the toughest team they could have faced in the Super Bowl.

Doubting Patrick Mahomes would be a big mistake and it would be incredible if the Eagles are underestimating this Kansas City Quarter Back.

When Kansas City have the ball, the pressure may be on Patrick Mahomes to make the plays for his team, and he has shown in the post-season that he is capable of tucking the ball and looking to keep the Chiefs in front of the chains.

Offensively the Chiefs do not match up as they would like with the Philadelphia Eagles- while recent opponents have had some success running the ball against the Eagles Defensive Line, the Kansas City Chiefs have not found sustained success on the ground and instead it may be the odd look that helps get someone loose.

It is unlikely to be a traditional running game and so Patrick Mahomes is going to be asked to make plays through the air against one of the stronger Secondaries in the NFL this season.

Again, it is simply not an option to doubt Mahomes and his ability to attack the Secondary with some success and Kansas City have got some key Receivers back into action over the last month, which will help. Patrick Mahomes is capable of making the clutch throw and the Kansas City Chiefs seem to find a way to put a scoring drive together when they really need to do that, while Head Coach Andy Reid will have prepared to find a way to exploit gaps in the Philadelphia Secondary.

The Patrick Mahomes record against Vic Fangio cannot be ignored either, but there still has to be a feeling inside the Eagles camp that they can at least stall some drives and give the Offensive unit every chance of winning this game.

It is the Philadelphia Offensive Line and Saquon Barkley that are going to be all important in this game- you know the Eagles will go as far as the Offensive Line will carry them, especially with a Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back and his ability to make plays with his legs too, but it is also key to draw out drives and wear down the Kansas City Chiefs up front, and leave Patrick Mahomes stewing on the sidelines while waiting his turn.

Over the season, Kansas City's Defensive Line have played pretty well, but there have been signs of some weakness during this post-season run.

Joe Mixon and James Cook have had big games against the Chiefs in the Playoffs and now they have to deal with Saquon Barkley and this powerful Eagles Offensive Line. There has been no doubt about how strong Philadelphia have been when it comes to punishing teams on the ground and Barkley could have yet another big performance to round out what has been a very special first year with the Eagles.

Those two Running Backs had big games, but so did CJ Stroud and Josh Allen as Quarter Backs very comfortable running with the ball and Jalen Hurts can follow suit here.

It could be very important for Jalen Hurts to be given some time when he does choose to target his big name Receivers down the field, especially against this Chiefs Secondary, and the Quarter Back may just help Philadelphia earn their revenge.

Without the same kind of running support, Patrick Mahomes could find himself under siege at times by a very strong and effective Philadelphia pass rush and the narrow lean is with the Eagles to earn revenge.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes is never an easy decision and he has been very good in the Playoffs, while also being a player that has a very strong covering record when the Kansas City Chiefs are dealing with a spread that covers them between a three point underdog or favourite.

The Chiefs are going for an unprecedented three-peat in the NFL, but it should be noted that the last two Super Bowl wins have both been as the narrow underdog and this time they are favoured. Over recent seasons, the underdog has actually been the right play when it comes to the spread and those two Kansas City wins have pushed the underdog to 17-6 against the spread in the last twenty-three Super Bowls played.

You may believe that being a higher Seed heading into the Super Bowl or having the superior regular season record is important, but those teams have actually been on the wrong end of the final Super Bowl score far too often. The higher Seed is now 2-16-2 against the spread over the last twenty-seven years (equal Seeds make up the remainder), while the team with the better regular season record is 1-16 against the spread in the last seventeen Super Bowls when that applies.

This is going to be close and it would not be a surprise if it comes down to another late Field Goal kick, but the Philadelphia Eagles might have been preparing to beat the Kansas City Chiefs ever since losing the Super Bowl two years ago. They look to match up well with the Chiefs on both sides of the ball and the Eagles Offensive Line can lead the NFC team to a second Super Bowl Championship in the history of the franchise.

MY PICK: Philadelphia Eagles + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.15 Units (2 Units Staked, - 7.5% Yield)

Divisional: 1-1-2, - 0.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 2.25% Yield)

Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 5.75 Units

NFL Super Bowl LVIII Pick 2024 (February 12th)

Six months- it comes and goes really quickly, but it is going to feel like a considerable wait before the NFL season rolls around again.

Super Bowl LVIII is played in Las Vegas this weekend and it is a case of wondering if we will have 'repeat' or 'revenge' when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers.

This should be a quality game between two of the top teams in the NFL, even if they have both not quite convinced through the post-season.

The defending Champions Kansas City have looked good, but the 49ers used up plenty of their fortune in their two PlayOff wins and the lines released by the oddsmakers suggests another close, competitive Super Bowl is ready to be played.

After a 1-1 run in the Divisional Round, there can be no complaints about the NFL Picks this season with a winning record secured.

Of course getting the Super Bowl Pick right is the ambition, but it was a very good season and gives us something to set the standard for the 2024 season later in the year.

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers Pick: We have a repeat of Super Bowl LIV when the Kansas City Chiefs (14-6) take on the San Francisco 49ers (14-5) in Las Vegas this weekend.

The 49ers have long been favourites to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, although it should be said they were pretty fortunate to get past both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions in the PlayOffs. A slight bounce of the ball going in a different direction, or a couple of passes from the opponent sticking, and the 49ers may have been upset at home.

Ultimately the key point is that they have not lost those games and the manner of the wins may give the players confidence and a feeling that 'this is their season' as the 49ers look to end a relatively long drought for a Championship.

Playing in the Super Bowl has become part and parcel of the Patrick Mahomes-Andy Reid era at the Kansas City Chiefs and this is the fourth time in five years that they are playing in the Championship Game. They have won two of the last three appearances, and are the defending Champions but the Chiefs have been playing with a chip on their shoulder having been set as the road underdog against the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens in the post-season.

You just know the Chiefs were well aware of that and they upset both the Number 1 and Number 2 Seed in the AFC.

It has been a year when the Offensive unit have not quite been on the same page for much of it, but the Kansas City Chiefs have been able to rely on an impressive Defensive unit and that is going to be very important for them in this game.

One of the weaknesses has been stopping the run- it was a real surprise to see the Ravens abandon that part of their Offense in a game that ended up being decided by just a Touchdown. That is not likely to be the case with this San Francisco 49ers team who have a star in the backfield, Christian McCaffrey, and an Offense that will have the likes of Deebo Samuel carry the ball as they look to keep opponents guessing.

This should be the approach for the 49ers, which is not a slight on Brock Purdy.

However, the Quarter Back has made some big mistakes in the PlayOffs and he could have easily cost the 49ers one of the two PlayOff games. There have been moments and drives where Purdy has impressed, but the 49ers will like to keep the ball out of his hands as much as possible and not have him throw into the Kansas City Secondary which has been playing at a high level all season.

Playing a clean game will be important for the 49ers Offense and they will feel confident enough if they can pound the rock on the ground. Third and manageable spots may give Brock Purdy an opportunity to make plays through the air, while the Quarter Back has shown he can also move out of a collapsing pocket and pick up First Downs with his legs.

Running the ball will also be an important part of the Kansas City Offense.

When you have a player of the qualities of Patrick Mahomes at Quarter Back, it can be easy to lean on him and ask him to make the plays with his arm, but the 49ers Defensive Line have struggled to contain the run in the post-season. Andy Reid has had plenty of time to prepare for this game and will have noted that so the expectation is that Isiah Pacheco will be getting plenty of carries and can be very effective.

Joe Thuney is trending towards missing out and will be a huge absence at Left Guard, but the Chiefs can still have success running the ball against this 49ers Defensive Line.

That should give Kansas City a slightly more balanced Offensive game-plan compared with the San Francisco 49ers. While the Chiefs have a Secondary that have been hard to throw the ball against, the San Francisco Secondary have allowed one or two holes to be exposed by Jordan Love and Jared Goff and it was only some big dropped passes from the Lions Receivers that cost Detroit the NFC Championship Game.

Drops have been a problem for the Kansas City Receiving corps this season, but Travis Kelce has picked up his level as we have entered the PlayOffs and he is likely going to have a big impact on the game. Patrick Mahomes will put the ball where it needs to be and he is another Quarter Back capable of scrambling for First Downs when the opportunity presents itself.

It is his passing capabilities against this Secondary compared with Brock Purdy's against the Kansas City Secondary which may end up being the most important factor of the Super Bowl.

Patrick Mahomes may not have the Receiving talent of the 49ers, but he does have a couple of solid players that will make plays for him, especially with Travis Kelce getting back up to his top level. There is little doubt that the Quarter Back will make all the throws needed, even when scrambling away from pressure, but the same cannot really be said for Brock Purdy who has been an inch away from making catastrophic mistakes.

A lucky bounce here and a massive drop there has prevented the Interceptions from racking up and this Chiefs Secondary are playing at a higher level than the teams that Brock Purdy has edged past.

The game should be competitive, and that should mean the 49ers can lean on the run, but if they fall behind in this one as they have done in the last two Rounds, you have to believe Brock Purdy will not be able to drag San Francisco out of the hole.

It really does have the makings of a very close contest- recent Super Bowls have been and even the one played between these two teams in February 2020 was very close until Kansas City broke away in the Fourth Quarter.

The expectation is that there really will not be much between the teams with both looking to control the clock on the ground, but the slight edge has to be given to the Kansas City Chiefs with their superior Quarter Back. Being in Sin City will mean every single player on the roster of the defending Champions will know they are still not being 'respected' as they have been set as the underdog for a third straight game, but Patrick Mahomes continues to not only cover, but win those games outright.

Patrick Mahomes is now 11-1-1 against the spread as an underdog, but he is also 10-3 outright in those games which is very impressive. He clearly is motivated by the spot and the expectation is we will get a very strong game out of the Quarter Back.

Having a full 3 points with the underdog would have been very appealing, but the Chiefs have every chance of winning this one outright and the strengths in the Secondary may just see the defending Champions lock down a dynasty.

Kyle Shanahan has shown he has plenty of qualities as a Head Coach, but Andy Reid is special and the extra preparation time certainly makes it hard to oppose the latter, giving the Chiefs another slight edge.

It does have me leaning, very slightly with the Kansas City Chiefs, and taking the points on offer looks the way to go. They have every chance of winning this one outright, but it would not be a surprise to see the Super Bowl go down to the wire and so the points may yet make a difference, even below a key number.

MY SUPER BOWL PICK: Kansas City Chiefs + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Championship Round: 1-1, - 0.09 Units (2 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Divisional Round: 3-1, + 1.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 41.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 5-1, + 3.42 Units (6 Units Staked, + 57% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 5-2, + 2.55 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.43% Yield)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)

Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)

Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)

Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

2023 Season: 79-58-4, + 16.02 Units

Super Bowl LVII Pick 2023- Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (February 12th)

I actually can't quite believe the NFL season is coming to an end, but here we are in mid-February with just the Super Bowl to be played.

My pick from the big game can be read below in what has been another up and down season.

Back in September I did have both of these teams amongst my leading contenders to win the Super Bowl, although the Eagles have perhaps been a much bigger surprise for most. However, they look the team to beat now and I think the narrow favourite for the Super Bowl are likely going to find a way to come out on top on Sunday too.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick: It has felt this might be the Super Bowl clash the fans would be most excited about for a while and the top two Seeds in both the AFC and NFC have both made it through to the Super Bowl LVII.

The Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) have won both of their PlayOff games without too much fuss, although they did earn a Championship Game win over a San Francisco team that did not have a Quarter Back who could throw the ball. There has been plenty of saltiness from the 49ers since the win, although I did think the Eagles would have won anyway, but this team have not been tested nearly as much as the Kansas City Chiefs (16-3).

Both of the Chiefs wins have come by 7 points or fewer against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals and there were plenty of controversy about the win over the Bengals. Some of the officiating was questionable to say the least, but the Chiefs did earn their place in the Super Bowl and they are a much experienced team when it comes to dealing with playing in the big game in February.

Head Coach Andy Reid is facing his former team, one that he guided to the Super Bowl before falling narrowly short against the New England Patriots. He has since won the Super Bowl with the Kansas City Chiefs, but they are 1-1 in the Super Bowl under Andy Reid and the AFC have lost the last two Bowls.

The big question for the Kansas City Chiefs is the health of Patrick Mahomes- the reality is the Chiefs can only really go as far as their Quarter Back will take them and he has had two weeks to get over the ankle injury suffered against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round. Personally I am not sure Mahomes can really hope to be at full health, but he is one of a couple of positions on both sides of the ball where the Kansas City Chiefs may feel they have the edge over the Philadelphia Eagles.

However, we saw how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to crush the Patrick Mahomes chances two years ago and the Philadelphia Eagles will feel they can slow down this passing game. It has not been as explosive as it was when Tyreek Hill was playing for the Chiefs, while the Philadelphia Eagles Secondary is amongst the best in the NFL and have played at a high level all season.

Stopping Travis Kelce is unlikely, but the Eagles will feel they match up really well with the Wide Receivers that Kansas City will trot out onto the field. There is also the pass rush pressure that the Eagles can generate without having to send the house after the Quarter Back and I do think that will make life tough for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City passing game that has shown an ability to break open the deep threat for much of the season.

As long as he is close to being at full health, Mahomes Magic is likely to be seen at times and you have to have a healthy respect for this Quarter Back and all he has achieved since entering the NFL. And as long as the Coaching staff respect the game, the Chiefs should be looking to establish the run and try and open passing lanes by pounding the rock.

It is not something that Andy Reid enjoys, but the Eagles have continued to show a weakness to the run even when signing veterans to try and plug the Defensive Line holes. Patrick Mahomes is capable of moving the ball with his legs too and I do think the Chiefs have to try and keep the Eagles as honest as possible while this game is close and competitive.

Anything else and it is the Eagles pass rush that may get on top and help the strong Secondary make some big plays for Philadelphia as they look for a second Super Bowl title in six years.

This time the Philadelphia Eagles will be led not by a Quarter Back that has ended the season in hot form, but one that has been a season-long success. Jalen Hurts might not have won the MVP, but that might not be a bad thing considering the last nine winners have all lost when making the Super Bowl (by the way, Patrick Mahomes won this year).

The Quarter Back has proven to be an integral part of the Philadelphia Eagles Offensive unit and the way they want to operate- everyone knows the Eagles want to establish the run and that opens thing up for their big time Receivers, but they are much harder to contain with the threat that Jalen Hurts presents in the RPO approach.

As improved as the Kansas City Defensive unit have been, they have also remained a unit that is weak at controlling the run and this is where I think the Philadelphia Eagles Offensive Line could have a big edge. If the Eagles pound the ball as we know they can, extended drives to wear out the Kansas City Defense will come with the added bonus of keeping Patrick Mahomes and the Offense sitting and cooling down on the sidelines.

I think that is the way the game is going to shake out on this side of the ball, while Jalen Hurts is operating behind a strong Offensive Line that has given him plenty of protection and time when he does want to throw to the likes of AJ Brown. Even a tough Chiefs pass rush may not be able to rattle the Quarter Back and especially not if the Eagles are moving the ball effectively on the ground and just getting those pass rushers wondering when to crash into the line.

Lane Johnson has not been a full participant this week in practice, but he has had two more weeks to deal with an injury suffered towards the end of the regular season and is pivotal to the Eagles chances of success.

I do like Philadelphia to edge this game and it should be a good one.

They just look to have more players that can make an impact across the board on both sides of the ball and Patrick Mahomes may not be able to produce enough magic to drag the Chiefs over the line, at least not with more eyebrow raising calls from the officials as we saw in the AFC Championship Game.

I expect Kansas City to take plenty of motivation from the fact they are the underdog, but they are just 1-1 against the spread in that position this season. At the same time the Philadelphia Eagles are 7-4 against the spread when favoured by less than a Touchdown and I do think they have been the best team in the NFL this season.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes is never easy, but this looks like being a second defeat in the Super Bowl for the Quarter Back as Philadelphia's Defensive unit make a late play to close the Kansas City rally.

MY PICK: Philadelphia Eagles - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Super Bowl LVI Pick 2022- Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams (February 13th)

We are just about at the end of the 2021 NFL season, but there is one more game to be played before the seven month off-season.

Lots of interest will be around for the Free Agency and NFL Draft, but the Super Bowl headlines this weekend and that sees a team playing in their home Stadium for a second season in a row.

The season has not been a memorable one for the NFL Picks, but it is tough to put winning seasons together and I was much happier with the 2020 selections. However, I have at least got one more chance to end the 2021 season with a positive result.

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams Pick: The decision to trade for Matthew Stafford looked to be one that was made with the Los Angeles Rams all in to their current window of trying to win a Super Bowl. While there have been some ups and downs in the 2021 season, there would have been plenty of people that picked the Los Angeles Rams to make the Super Bowl before the season began and so it cannot be a massive surprise.

However, it is a much different case for the Cincinnati Bengals who finished last in the AFC North last season and who were considered an improving team, but one that still had something to prove. Road wins over the top two Seeds in the AFC have seen the Bengals reach the big game and there will be plenty of belief in Ohio that their team can bring home a Super Bowl for the first time.

For the second season in a row a team will have the opportunity to play a Super Bowl in their home Stadium and that has to give the Los Angeles Rams an edge, even as the designated road team. Last season it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who won with home comforts and the Rams have been set as the favourite to do the same in the 2021 season.

No one should be taking a one game sample as a trend, but the Rams have to be feeling pretty good about playing at home and every team in the NFL would sign up for the opportunity to play the Super Bowl in their own Stadium. That has contributed to the Rams being the favourites, but the star-studded team would likely have gone into the Super Bowl in that spot anyway.

In saying that, the Rams are not considered a huge favourite and so Joe, Burrow not Namath, will feel the upset is entirely possible as the Bengals chase a first Super Bowl in franchise history. Having a Head Coach who is familiar with the Rams will help Cincinnati, although Sean McVay has the experience of Coaching in a Super Bowl and the loss to the New England Patriots will certainly have given him a chance to just change things around and adjust whenever he made it back to the big game.

Rumours about retirement have been shut down for Sean McVay, even as he becomes the youngest Head Coach to reach two Super Bowls, but there may not be too many more opportunities for him to add the ring to his CV.

Much of what the Rams like to do is based on their ability to run the ball, but that has remained a tough task for them even with a returning Cam Akers. Struggles against the San Francisco and Tampa Bay Defensive Lines may not be an indicator of what the Rams can do in this one though as the Bengals Defensive Line has had some difficulty containing the run throughout the PlayOff run.

Unlike the Chiefs, I don't think McVay will lean away from the run and the Rams could be very tough to stop if they are able to keep Matthew Stafford in front of the chains. Cam Akers may have a big game and that will open things up for the Quarter Back with the play-action as he looks to hit talented Receivers down the field.

Cooper Kuup is the stand out name, but Odell Beckham Jr has thrived since signing with the Rams, although Tyler Higbee will be a real loss. Even then, Los Angeles have players who can expose this Secondary and Matthew Stafford has been given plenty of time to hit his Receivers thanks to a strong Offensive Line.

The Bengals Defensive unit has made big adjustments when needed though so Zac Taylor should feel his team will avoid any potential blow out. His knowledge of the way Sean McVay likes to work should help Cincinnati formulate a good game plan on this side of the ball, while the Head Coach will firmly believe his own Quarter Back and Offense can keep the Bengals rolling.

Joe Burrow has won a National Championship at College level and he is a player who exudes confidence on and off the field and I have no doubt the Quarter Back is going to fancy winning it all. It feels like the Bengals are going to have to rely on Burrow throwing the ball as they have struggled to establish the run, even with a star player like Joe Mixon in the backfield.

Facing up to the Los Angeles Defensive Line will be a huge test for the Bengals Offense and I am not sure Joe Mixon is going to get a lot of change out of them up front. That means Joe Burrow will be relying on the Offensive Line to try and keep the likes of Von Miller and Aaron Donald from out of the backfield, something that has been an issue for the Bengals in the PlayOffs.

Even then, Joe Burrow has shown he can scramble from the pressure and still make some big throws down the field. The momentum is with the Bengals having beaten the top two Seeds in the AFC and Burrow will be very keen in throwing against a Rams Secondary which has multiple holes away from where Jalen Ramsey will be playing.

Cincinnati may not have the star names at Receiver like Los Angeles do, at least not yet, but they have a talented unit that are very capable of making big time plays across the field.

Turnovers may end up being the key to the outcome of the Super Bowl, but I can't help feel the lack of balance that Cincinnati will have will end up costing them here. I am expecting the Rams to be able to move the ball on the ground, at least more efficiently than the Cincinnati Bengals, and both teams have Receivers that can win against the Secondary players they are facing.

Being at home HAS to be an advantage, although I am not overly confident in opposing the momentum of the Cincinnati Bengals who have covered in their last five games when set as the underdog. The never say die attitude was clear in the comeback win over the Kansas City Chiefs two weeks ago, but I think the experience of the Rams helps them just turn that away.

The Rams are only 1-1 against the spread in their two PlayOff games as the favourite in their run to the Super Bowl, but I think the balance Offensively sees them become a rare Super Bowl favourite to cover in recent seasons.

MY PICK: Los Angeles Rams - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Divisional: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 2-5, - 6.52 Units (14 Units Staked, - 46.57% Yield)

Week 18: 6-6, - 1.16 Units (24 Units Staked, - 4.83% Yield)

Week 17: 3-4, - 2.46 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.57% Yield)

Week 16: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)

Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)

Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)

Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)

Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)

Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Season 2021: 81-80-1, - 12.54 Units (324 Units Staked, - 3.87% Yield)

Super Bowl LV NFL Pick 2021 (February 7th)

I always find it surprising as to how quick the NFL season has been played when we reach the Super Bowl and after Sunday there will be seven months before we see more competitive Football.

Things may have changed significantly by then by in our personal lives, which should be closer to a return to normal than they are now, and the NFL 2021 season could have the seventeenth regular season game on the schedule. We will learn more about that in the coming weeks, while fans in London will surely be excited to hear that the NFL are looking to return the International Series games to the schedule too.

The new NFL season will get underway in the middle of March and we should have a lot more information as to the shape the 2021 season will take, while also hearing rumours about which teams could potentially be playing those International games. Free Agency will also get underway and that will change the shape of the Draft, but for now you can read my first Mock Draft here.

Before we can think about a new one, let's put the 2020 year in the books and that means completing the one game left this season. You can read my selection below for the Super Bowl which is being played in Tampa Bay this year and with a limited crowd inside the Stadium too.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: For the first time in the Super Bowl era, one of the teams competing will be playing in their home Stadium.

Unsurprisingly it is a team led by Tom Brady who continues to break down historical records and is looking for his seventh ring, but this time with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The previous six came in his time with the New England Patriots, but Brady has erased the narrative that he is a Quarter Back who was a product of the Patriots system rather than one who would have been a top player regardless.

Now in his time with the Buccaneers Tom Brady is showing that he is capable of winning games in a different system, a relationship that has had some teething problems in the early part of the 2020 season. It does feel like that Brady and Head Coach Bruce Arians are on the same page and the Offensive weapons that are surrounding the veteran Quarter Back are thriving with a player who will get them the ball.

Winning a seventh ring will make it a very strong case for Tom Brady to be considered the greatest Quarter Back of all time, if he is not already, but beating Patrick Mahomes and the defending Champions Kansas City Chiefs will only add to the legacy.

Beating Kansas City won't be easy as they look to become the first team since Brady's New England to win back to back Super Bowls after working their way through the PlayOffs. The Chiefs have not always been at their dominant best and that is underlined by their poor record against the spread in 2020, but they did beat the Buffalo Bills without too many issues and look to have peaked at just the right time.

Most will put this game down to Tom Brady versus Patrick Mahomes, but it can be lost in the stories that the two Quarter Backs essentially are not playing against each other. Instead two strong Defensive Co-Ordinators will be looking to slow down very strong Offensive units and give their team the best possible chance of success.

Those Defenses have actually made some massive plays for both teams already in the post-season- the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defensive unit have made some big plays against Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers which set their team up to win those games, while the Kansas City Chiefs knuckled down hard against the Cleveland Browns as Mahomes exited the game, while giving up just 41 points in the two PlayOff wins.

One of the more under-reported issues that is facing the Kansas City Chiefs are the two injuries on the Offensive Line with both starting Tackles expected to miss out. Mitchell Schwartz has yet to be a confirmed absentee, but looks incredibly unlikely to have recovered from a back injury which has kept him out for over half a season, while Eric Fisher has been ruled out following an injury in the AFC Championship Game.

Losing both Tackles would hurt an Offensive Line against any team, but it is especially the case against this Tampa Bay pass rush which has been thriving and causing havoc throughout the post-season. The key for the Buccaneers and Defensive Co-Ordinator Todd Bowles is trying to get some pressure on Patrick Mahomes, but without having to use too many Blitzes.

They have the players to do that, but Bowles is also someone who is keen on dialling up the Blitz and I think it could be a case of living or dying by the sword in the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is a Quarter Back who loves seeing the Blitz as he makes the right plays more often than not and I think the Chiefs will feel they can still have some success in this one.

It may not be as consistent with the likely pressure being felt from the edges, and it won't be easy for the Kansas City Chiefs to run the ball to slow it down either considering the success Tampa Bay's Defensive Line have been having in the post-season. Even then you have to note the holes in the Tampa Bay Secondary which can be attacked and Patrick Mahomes is about as good as any Quarter Back in the NFL, if not the top player at the position, and you would expect him to connect with some big time playmakers to move the stick in the big game.

Much is going to depend on how well Kansas City have been able to prepare their backups at the Tackle position- if they can give Mahomes enough time to scramble and find his playmakers the Chiefs should be able to have success in the Super Bowl, and Andy Reid is one of the best at preparing his team when having more time to do so.

The likes of Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill will have their big gains and Patrick Mahomes has been careful enough with the ball to be fully aware of the ball-hawking Tampa Bay Secondary whose turnovers have proven to be a major part of the reason they have been able to win at New Orleans and Green Bay. Pressure up front could lead to Mahomes having to throw the ball before he is ready which could give the Buccaneers Secondary a chance, but I like the Quarter Back and believe he will be ready to deal with what he sees.

Patrick Mahomes will have success, but I also think the Offensive Line issues will give the Tampa Bay Buccaneers a chance to get the ball back into the hands of Tom Brady and their own powerful Offense. However it should be said that the Defensive turnovers have been massively important for the Buccaneers and really set them up to win tight games against the Saints and the Packers and it might have hidden the fact that the Buccaneers have not been the most consistent calling plays and having long drives end in scores.

In the Championship Game Tom Brady had three Touchdown passes, but also threw three Interceptions and now he is facing a Steve Spagnuolo led Defensive unit. It will lead to memories of 2007 when the New York Giants upset Tom Brady and the New England Patriots thanks to the aggressive Defense sent out by Spagnuolo who will be looking to find a way to give the veteran something to see that he hasn't in his long career.

To make life easier for himself, I do think Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will look to make strong use out of Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones at Running Back. While they have not been the best at establishing the run, the Buccaneers have done well enough to believe they can take advantage of the Kansas City Defensive Line which has been better at getting after the Quarter Back than pushing back against the run.

Putting Tom Brady in third and manageable spots opens up the playbook and Tampa Bay will feel it is always an advantage keeping Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines for as long as possible. That will slow down some of the pass rush pressure that Kansas City have been able to generate, while it will also keep the Chiefs guessing and perhaps prevent the turnover creating Secondary from being able to step in front of some passes.

With the passing options Tampa Bay have at their disposal I do think they are going to be able to make some plays against this Kansas City Secondary. It is a talented team, but the Chiefs can sometimes bend and Tom Brady will likely be able to find a way to get the ball to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Cameron Brate and Rob Gronkowski, a talented group of Receivers who are almost impossible to shut down completely.

Steve Spagnuolo knows what works against Tom Brady though and I think he will have schemed up the Kansas City Defensive unit to maybe force a couple of mistakes from the veteran. For the main Tom Brady can avoid those, but he won't want to see the Buccaneers get too far behind the Kansas City Chiefs and that means making a faster start than when these teams met in the regular season.

For the first time in Super Bowl history we are not only having a team playing in their home Stadium, but this is also a repeat of a regular season game in the same Stadium. Back in Week 12 the Kansas City Chiefs came out firing and took a big lead over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers before having to hold on for a 3 point win to move to 10-1 while dropping their hosts to 7-5.

The Buccaneers have not lost a game since then, but they have to be a little wary about taking on a Chiefs team that Intercepted Brady twice that day and had an almost 150 yard advantage when it came to the Offensive numbers produced. Turnovers won the day for the Chiefs too with a 2-1 advantage, although Tampa Bay did manage to take down Patrick Mahomes more times than Kansas City got to Tom Brady and this time the two Tackles will be missing.

I do think this is likely to be another competitive game even though the first meeting needed a big fightback from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to do that. I expect they would have learned something from that game and the Buccaneers were dropped to 7-5 on the day and look a much stronger all around team now.

It is the Offensive Line concerns that really make me believe the Buccaneers keep this close- they were lucky to cover for me in Week 12, but I think getting more than a Field Goal worth of points could be crucial in a game that could easily go down to the wire.

No one would be surprised if Patrick Mahomes pulled the win out of the fire, but Tom Brady won't go down without a fight either and I do think Tampa Bay have a real advantage being at home, especially in the current climate.

As good as the Chiefs clearly are, they are just 2-7 against the spread in their last nine as the favourite. The Buccaneers won't mind being the underdog having won outright in the last two PlayOff spots despite being the dog, and they are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven games facing a team with a winning record.

Ironically Tampa Bay have had to win three road games to play at home on Super Bowl night- four previous teams have done that and the last three have all won the Super Bowl so I am going to roll with the points in the big game on Sunday. As I said I think the game will be tight and would not be surprised if it is decided by a Field Goal either way, so taking the hook with the underdog hosts looks good here.

The favourite has won the last two Super Bowls including Kansas City last season and it is hard to oppose Patrick Mahomes or Andy Reid off a Bye, but the Offensive Line issues may restrict the scoring for the Chiefs and that will give Tom Brady and the Buccaneers to earn a backdoor cover at the worst, much like we saw in Week 12.

Since 2006 the team with the better record is only 1-11 against the spread in the Super Bowl, while those teams are just 2-10 straight up. I have to say that is a remarkable statistic and, while trends are there to be snapped, it does make it more comfortable going with the 'home' team who are the underdog this week.

At exactly three points it is a much harder spread to manage, so pay a bit of juice for the hook on Super Bowl Sunday.

MY PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.76 Bet365 (2 Units)

Championship Round: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.5% Yield)

Divisional Round: 3-1, + 3.36 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42% Yield)

Wild Card Round: 1-5, - 8.18 Units (12 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)

Week 17: 4-5, - 3.10 Units (18 Units Staked, - 17.22% Yield)

Week 16: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)

Week 15: 3-4-1, - 2.38 Units (16 Units Staked, - 14.88% Yield)

Week 14: 5-3, + 3 Units (16 Units Staked, + 18.75% Yield)

Week 13: 5-5, - 0.82 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.10% Yield)

Week 12: 5-4, + 0.86 Units (18 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 11: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Week 10: 4-3-1, + 1.46 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.13% Yield)

Week 9: 2-6, - 8.36 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)

Week 8: 6-2, + 6.60 Units (16 Units Staked, + 41.25% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3-1, + 1.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 7.87% Yield)

Week 6: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)

Week 3: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.27% Yield)

Week 2: 7-3, + 7.10 Units (20 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)

Week 1: 6-3-1, + 4.62 Units (20 Units Staked, + 23.10% Yield)

Season 2020: 79-64-4, + 13.12 Units (296 Units Staked, + 4.43% Yield)

Super Bowl LIV NFL Pick 2020 (Sunday 2nd February)

The Super Bowl looks like it could be an epic one with the two best teams in each Conference playing for the biggest prize in American Football.

I wanted the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers to meet in Miami as soon as the Championship Games were set as I do think they will make for the most competitive game. The line suggests the layers believe the same with the Chiefs down as a very narrow favourite, but I don't think this is going to be a blow out and I can't wait to round off the 2019 season.

The only disappointment is that we have to wait seven months before we get to see another meaningful snap in either College or the Pro ranks.


At this time of the season I think it is cool to look back to early September and the kind of predictions I had for the year and how wrong I got it.

I only managed to pick five of the twelve PlayOff teams, and some of the worse have to be Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Chargers. Injuries hurt the Pittsburgh Steelers, while I did not foresee the Baltimore Ravens or San Francisco 49ers having the seasons they did.

However my prediction of the Kansas City Chiefs winning the Super Bowl is still alive (I had them over the Philadelphia Eagles so at least managed to pick another PlayOff team).

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The Number 1 Seed from the NFC meets the Number 2 Seed from the AFC in Super Bowl LIV coming from Miami this Sunday.

The San Francisco 49ers played in the Super Bowl as recently as February 2013, but they last won the big prize in January 1995 when this Stadium was still called the Joe Robbie Stadium. On the other side of the field is the Kansas City Chiefs who will be looking to mark the 50th Anniversary of their last Super Bowl success with another.

Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan both have Super Bowl heartbreaks to deal with- the former has Coached in seven Championship Games and is yet to pick up the Vince Lombardi Trophy, while the latter was the Offensive Co-Ordinator for the Atlanta Falcons when they blew a 28-3 lead over the New England Patriots three years ago.

Those previous experiences may be fuelling the Head Coaches, but they both know they are with different teams now and the 2019 season has gone very well for both. The 49ers finished with a slightly superior record at 13-3 compared with Kansas City's 12-4, but both have largely dominated in the PlayOffs.

The main storyline going into the Super Bowl is going to be how the San Francisco Defensive unit can stand up to the Kansas City Offense, but it has long been said that Defenses win Championships. The Super Bowl of recent years that has reminded me most of this narrative is the one where the Seattle Seahawks throttled Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, but I do think this 49ers Defensive unit is not as strong as the 'Legion of Boom', while Patrick Mahomes is arguably playing at a better level than Manning at the end of the 2013 season.

Some are already describing Mahomes as potentially the best Quarter Back of all time and you do have to say he has all the throws. He is backed by some massive speed and big time playmakers in this Offensive scheme run by Andy Reid, but Mahomes is the key and it is going to be his performance which is going to determine whether the Chiefs can score enough points in this one.

You have to expect Andy Reid to have something up his sleeve to try and establish the run in this one after seeing the 49ers shut down the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers on the ground. They have given up just 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games, but the Kansas City Chiefs do have a solid Running Back in Damien Williams and will also use their Receivers to run the ball by giving the 49ers something different to look at.

Damien Williams is likely to be a bigger threat in the passing game and has proven to be a good check down for Patrick Mahomes, while another important factor the San Francisco 49ers have to recognise is the ability of the Quarter Back to scramble for big runs himself.

That is going to be important for the Chiefs as it may be a big way to slow down the San Francisco pass rush which has been special for much of the season. They look to be fully healthy on the Line and even the strong Kansas City Offensive Line will be having one or two difficult moments against Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, but Patrick Mahomes being able to get out of the pocket will be important.

If the 49ers have to put a spy on Mahomes it may mean a little more space in the Secondary when the speedy Receivers get down the field, although Richard Sherman is still playing at a very high level for the 49ers. He was part of that Seattle team that crushed Peyton Manning and will be reminding his team-mates of what is possible behind a very strong Defensive unit, but there are one or two holes that can be exploited by Patrick Mahomes in this San Francisco team.

I think he is perhaps the most capable Quarter Back in the NFL to be able to do that consistently and I do think Patrick Mahomes will be difficult to contain. Instead the San Francisco 49ers will likely look for their own Offensive game-plan to be one that keeps Mahomes cooling off on the sidelines for long periods.

All season San Francisco have shown they can control the clock behind their very strong running game and it was underlined in their win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game. Raheem Mostert has seemingly come out of left field to take over as the hot hand at Running Back for San Francisco and he racked up 220 yards on the ground in the NFC Championship Game.

On the 2019 season numbers you would have to think San Francisco will be able to establish the run very well in this one, but Chris Jones looks healthy and he has helped Kansas City's Defensive Line stiffen somewhat. Over the last three games they have allowed 4.2 yards per carry and the Chiefs are definitely much stronger with Jones in the line up than without, although stopping San Francisco completely will not be easy.

The key will be to try and get Jimmy Garoppolo into third and long spots and see whether they can rattle him into mistakes- for the most part this season he has been careful enough, but Garoppolo is more than a game manager like some have suggested. He has had big performances, none more so than in the road win at the New Orleans Saints, and Garoppolo has some decent Receivers with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel the stand outs for the 49ers.

However the Kansas City Chiefs will believe the pass rush can rattle the San Francisco Quarter Back if they can get their opponent's into obvious passing situations. While the San Francisco Offensive Line has been very good in run blocking, they have not been as competent holding off the pass rush and Kansas City have playmakers up front which can rattle Jimmy Garoppolo.

Even with that in mind I do think Garoppolo will have success as the Kansas City Secondary have given up some big yards. A part of that is down to the points being put up by the Offensive unit which has opponents chasing by throwing the ball, but I do think San Francisco are capable of having solid Offensive success in this game too and both teams can enjoy the game when they have the ball in their hands.

This Super Bowl has all the makings of a very close and competitive one and I do think the teams match up very well with each other. I think the Kansas City Defensive unit is strong enough to at least contain the San Francisco run to some extent, while I also think the Kansas City Chiefs will have some Offensive success thanks to the playmaking talents of Patrick Mahomes and the Andy Reid schemes that he will have been working on for two weeks.

Andy Reid off a Bye Week has long been a good way to make some money and I am leaning towards the Kansas City Chiefs who were my pre-season pick to win it all.

I have no doubt this will be a close game, but Patrick Mahomes might be able to make one or two bigger players than Jimmy Garoppolo which ends up proving to be the difference on the day.

The higher PlayOff Seed in the Super Bowl has a miserable record against the spread over the last few years and the team with the better record has lost nine of the last ten in the big game.

In recent Super Bowls the underdog has been the team to back with a 9-3 record against the spread in the last twelve, but this is a virtual pick 'em game.

I will be looking for the superior Quarter Back to help his team come out, while I also believe Andy Reid might just have one or two creases for Kyle Shanahan that haven't been seen so far. It might be a Super Bowl that comes down to the final play to decide the outcome, but I am going to back Kansas City to come out on top thanks to a big pass from Patrick Mahomes that helps hm win the MVP Award.

MY PICK: Kansas City Chiefs - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Divisional: 1-3, - 4.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)
Wild Card: 2-2, - 0.20 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)
Week 17: 2-4, - 3.98 Units (12 Units Staked, - 33.17% Yield)
Week 16: 7-4, + 5.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 22.91% Yield)
Week 15: 1-7-1, - 12.28 Units (18 Units Staked, - 68.22% Yield)
Week 14: 2-5, - 6.36 Units (14 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 13: 5-3, + 3.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 20.38% Yield)
Week 12: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
Week 11: 4-3-1, + 1.48 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 6: 6-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 65-70-2, - 21.54 Units (271 Units Staked, - 7.94% Yield)