NFL Super Bowl LX Pick 2026- New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 8th February)

If you go back in time and let people know that this is the Super Bowl that will conclude the 2025 season, I am not sure there will be too many that would believe you.

It may not be quite up to the 'Back to the Future Part II' odds of the Chicago Cubs winning it all in that movie, but the Seahawks were 60-1 and the Patriots 80-1 in the pre-season odds to win the Super Bowl.

None of that matters to the fans of either teams and it will certainly not matter to the Coaching Staff and the players as they look to cement their place in history.

Out of the two teams, it really does feel like the Seattle Seahawks have a significant edge on both sides of the ball, but the NFL season has been a strange one from the start and it would not be a big surprise to anyone if the New England Patriots were to win the first Championship since Tom Brady departed as Quarter Back.

Many would have been hoping the Patriots were going to have to suffer through a long period without success having been the dominant team with Brady and Bill Belichick, but Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel have had plenty to say about that.

Of course there are big stories that can be completed on the other side with Sam Darnold's fight to finally be seen as one of the top players in the position perhaps being determined by the final result. The Seahawkss rebuild has to be admired and of course they have a British Defensive Co-Ordinator in Aden Durde who has been a remarkable success story for others to follow and has helped form a very strong Seattle Defense that looks to be the best unit on the field on either side of the ball.

This has been a tough season for the NFL Picks and snaps a strong run over the last couple of years.

Some of that has been down to what has been an incredibly inconsistent League and perhaps without adjustments being made quickly enough, but it is something to learn from over the next six months before a 'new game' begins.

My Super Bowl thoughts and Pick can be read below.

Super Bowl LX Pick: The AFC Champion New England Patriots (17-3) meet the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks (16-3) in the Super Bowl, which is the repeat of Super Bowl XLIX played in February 2015. That was a game one by the Patriots, but all Seattle fans will still remember the decision to throw the ball rather than handing it to Marshawn Lynch and seeing that pass Intercepted to prevent the Seahawks from repeating as Champions.

The Seahawks have not been back to the Big Game since then, while the New England Patriots won a couple more Super Bowls with Tom Brady at Quarter Back. The future Hall of Famer has also led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl success, but the New England Patriots had been struggling to find a Brady replacement until this season.

Drake Maye is not the most experienced, but the Quarter Back has been a key part of the turnaround for the Patriots who had won just eight games in the previous two seasons before this stunning 2025 season. Head Coach Mike Vrabel deserves a lot of credit for influencing this roster too, but New England will be the underdog when they face Seattle.

They deserve credit for getting past the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos, but it also should be stated that this has not exactly been a 'murderer's row' of opponents. The Chargers and Texans had glaring issues, which were exposed by the Patriots, while the Denver Broncos had to play with a backup Quarter Back and that did make a difference in a close game.

Much of the credit has to be given to the Patriots Defensive unit.

They have really stepped up and will need to be at their best against the Seattle Seahawks who got the better of two Divisional rivals San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams and who have definitely earned their place in the Super Bowl by taking on a much tougher schedule than the one New England have had to play.

All of that won't matter on Sunday in the Super Bowl when it is all about executing properly on the day.

While the Seattle Offensive unit have put up better numbers than the Patriots, the Defensive unit is the stronger for the Seahawks as it is for the AFC Champion.

With that said, it is going to be a game that feels like it is going to be decided by which of the two Defensive units is able to impose themselves the best.

The Line of Scrimmage is going to be really important when the Seahawks have the ball- they will want to keep Quarter Back Sam Darnold in third and manageable spots as much as possible and try and keep the pressure from someone who has had a history of struggling in big spots. Over the last month, Sam Darnold has not really had those moments, but there is always a concern about the Quarter Back until he proves there should not be and so the game plan will still involve seeing a lot of Kenneth Walker III.

He is going to be running behind a very good Seattle Offensive Line, but the Patriots have really had a good Playoff clamping down up front and this is going to be a key battleground. You have to feel the Patriots 'must' stop the run and try and see if they can put Sam Darnold in a position where he feels he has to win the game for Seattle, which can lead to mistakes, while the Seahawks missed Zach Charbonnet and his ability to not only pound the rock, but to be that safety blanket for the Quarter Back.

Throwing against this Secondary is going to be a big challenge for Sam Darnold- his favourite Receiver is likely going to be blanketed by New England's best Defensive Back, Christian Gonzalez, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba will be fighting for room, but that will mean focusing on the experience of Cooper Kuup and hoping that Rashid Shaheed can also take the top off the Secondary.

Seattle may ultimately decide that they don't want to make too many mistakes and play the field position and so running the ball is going to be key.

You can say the same on the other side of the ball.

While the Patriots Defensive Line have stepped up the level in the post-season, the Seattle Defensive Line has been one of the best at stopping the run through the campaign.

The Seahawks did have some trouble stopping the Los Angeles Rams running the ball, but that might have something to do with Matt Stafford at Quarter Back and the familiarity the teams had with one another. This time the Seattle game plan may be to ask Drake Maye to beat them with his arm, especially as he is playing behind an Offensive Line that have been much better at run blocking than pass protection.

New England will not shy away from what they want to do and will be happy to play the field position if they have to and that means they will continue to pound the rock for as long and as often as is needed.

Third and long spots will definitely favour the Seahawks who have a decent pass rush and who will certainly have seen the issues New England have had in giving Drake Maye time to throw down the field. Those issues have been compounded by the fact that Maye has struggled to hold onto the ball when he is being Sacked and it is those turnovers that could become a huge factor in the final outcome of the Super Bowl.

Drake Maye will make some plays- he can throw the ball to some experienced Receivers, while he showed he is willing to tuck the ball and run for First Downs when needed. That will help the New England Patriots, but it does feel like the Super Bowl could come down to which of the two Quarter Backs makes the fewest mistakes.

There is also a feeling that the Seattle Defensive unit is the superior of the two that will be on the field on Sunday and that is where the difference could be made with the likelihood that they can win the turnover battle.

The underdog has covered in each of the last five Super Bowls played, while four of those have ended with the underdog earning an outright win.

Everything is pointing to a low scoring game, which is not uncommon in recent Super Bowl games played, and that does make the spread a little more awkward. Having this many points gives the underdog a chance for a backdoor cover in the worst case, but there is an underlying feeling that the Seahawks are much more battle-hardened and have an Offensive unit capable of making one or two more plays than the Patriots.

Keeping stakes relatively low looks to be the best approach with a game that could come down to one or two plays, but the edge before kickoff is with the NFC Champion to win the Super Bowl for a second year in a row and with another cover in a winning effort.

MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.14 Units (2 Units Staked, - 7% Yield)

Divisional: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 51-66, - 20.45 Units (117 Units Staked, - 17.48% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2025- Derek Chisora vs Otto Wallin (Saturday 8th February)

There is always some drama or other in Boxing in the lead up to big fights or even announcements, but the Canelo Alvarez situation this week still grabbed more attention than usual.

One minute he was going to be fighting Terence Crawford in September, but just days later the fight was off the table and rumours ramped up that Canelo would be taking on Jake Paul in May instead.

Just as the news was travelling all around the globe and has the criticism of Canelo begun to mount up, another report came out that the Paul fight was not going to happen and Alvarez had signed up for a four fight deal with the Saudi Arabian Riyadh Season.

And just like that, Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford is back on the table for September.

Three of the four fights are rumoured to be taking place in Saudi Arabia, beginning with the showdown in the first weekend in May, although the opponent has yet to be selected for that bout.

Following the fight with Bud Crawford in September, Canelo Alvarez is rumoured to be out in February and November 2026, which means the big Mexican dates in May and September will need a new headline act.

With Canelo Alvarez signed up and Naoya Inoue set to make his Saudi debut in December, there is little doubt that Turki Alalshikh is the leading name in the sport.

Very few of the big names are not under some sort of Riyadh Season banner and Alalshikh's hopes of having a UFC style League is certainly picking up momentum.

It is important to hear promoters like Eddie Hearn still speaking about fights like Dalton Smith vs Adam Azim being put together WITHOUT Saudi backing if only to ensure Boxers and their teams are not pricing themselves out of contests or hoping to be 'overpaid' for every fight they take.

The good news about the approach taken by Turki Alalshikh is that he is not prepared to back fights where the headline acts are not taking risks and actually taking on competitive opponents.

This has been key to putting together some of the big cards we have seen and the upcoming February 22nd event is one that all fans of the sport are looking forward to seeing.

Evem Canelo Alvarez, who some have criticised for choice of opponents in the last couple of years, is set for some big name opponents during his four bout run with Riyadh Season and this can only be good news for fans, even if there is the disappointment of not having some of the bigger events hosted outside of the nation.

In saying that we should soon have announcement of some more events to be run in the United Kingdom and United States and that should appease the fans.

To keep those events going, fans will need to vote with their feet and attend the events that are being put together and it should keep the sport from becoming one that most can only watch on television.

The two cards last weekend were very interesting and David Benavidez has separated from the pack to become the leading contender to face the winner of the Undisputed Light Heavyweight World Title bout coming up in two weeks time.

He has been asked to attend the event and it would not be a surprise to see Benavidez climb into the ring and challenge the winner of the main event in Riyadh.

Stephen Fulton and Adam Azim were impressive in wins that will lead to more opportunities for both- the former is once again World Champion and the latter is continuing to progress in a manner his team are expecting from him.

It was a tougher night for the Boxing Picks, but it is early in the season and there is a long way to go before the story of 2025 is written.

Big cards are yet to come in February and so there are plenty of chances to turn things back around and get back on track.

Derek Chisora vs Otto Wallin

It is billed as 'The Last Dance', but the fact Derek Chisora has openly discussed reaching fifty professional fights suggests this is not going to be the last time we see him in a Boxing ring.

However, it is almost certainly going to be the last time Chisora enters a ring in Britain.

For some reason the IBF have declared this an eliminator, even though Martin Bakole and Efe Ajagba are set to fight for that mandatory spot in May. With that in mind, the main event has moved from a Ten Rounder into a Twelve Rounder and there is a big opportunity for both Derek Chisora and his opponent Otto Wallin.

The 'B Side' is well known to British Boxing fans having suffered losses to Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua, although Otto Wallin has long felt he deserved the win over Fury when opening up deep cuts on the face of the then World Champion.

His defeat to Anthony Joshua was much more disappointing and Otto Wallin has fought just one competitive Round since that loss in December 2023.

You cannot ignore the fact that Wallin is younger and with far fewer miles on the clock compared with Derek Chisora, while the Swede has a style that should help him contain the threat of the veteran. Fighting out of a southpaw stance with good, solid fundamentals should mean Otto Wallin is able to just steer out of trouble, while he is likely to be the more active of the two fighters to rack up the Rounds.

Derek Chisora has won three of his last four fights, but those have been against Kubrat Pulev, Gerald Washington and Joe Joyce. All are much older and battle worn than Otto Wallin and there is no doubt that Chisora has not looked as sharp as he once did in those victories as his own career winds down.

Some might suggest the judges will lean towards Derek Chisora, but the IBF eliminator attached to the bout should erase that feeling.

Stopping Derek Chisora is not going to be easy, even if the veteran has been there to be hit in recent bouts. He has shown he can get through the Rounds against recent opponents and even the Stoppage loss to Tyson Fury came very late on, while the feeling is that Chisora will be given every chance to hear the final bell in what is expected to be his last fight in the United Kingdom.

Otto Wallin should still be able to outwork the veteran though and this is a big chance for him to get his own career back on track and earn another big shot under the Riyadh Season banner.

The fight might always be easy to watch, but the quality should largely be supplied by Otto Wallin and he may just be given the nod on the cards.

You cannot really dismiss the chance of a late Stoppage, but Wallin may not be willing to risk going for that if he feels he is in control and the Chisora team will want him to complete the Twelve Rounds scheduled.

The undercard features Nathan Heaney who is looking to bounce back after two tough fights against Brad Pauls.

Jack Rafferty should continue moving up through the ranks and his body work could see him secure another Stoppage, perhaps slightly quicker than his last win over Henry Turner.

Experience is on the side of Zak Miller and he should receive plenty of support from the stands, but Masood Abdulah looks to be a really progressive fighter.

He hits plenty hard too and can defend his Commonwealth Featherweight Title and pick up the vacant British Title with his power shining through.

We still have Zach Parker on the card after original opponent Willy Hutchinson had to withdraw with an injury, but the replacement is a tough Boxer who was preparing for a big fight next month.

Mickael Diallo will cause problems and it may be a night where Parker needs to keep his wits about him and just do what is necessary to secure a Points Decision.

MY PICKS: Otto Wallin to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Jack Rafferty Win Between 5-8 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Masood Abdulah to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2025: 3-11, - 8.47 Units (18 Units Staked, + 47.06% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Saturday 8th February)

Big titles are going to be won this weekend beginning with the event in Abu Dhabi on Saturday and ending with the other tournaments, including Rotterdam, on Sunday.

Qualifiers have already begun for the WTA Doha tournament, which is the first big WTA 1000 event to be played in the Middle East this month, while the first of the Golden Swing events is played on the ATP Tour in Argentina.

Friday was a disappointment for the Tennis Picks with the sole selection going down in three competitive sets, but it has still been a solid enough week and finishing with a flourish is the challenge to end strong.

Alex De Minaur - 4.5 games v Mattia Bellucci: Italian tennis has been thriving over the last couple of years and Mattia Bellucci has already secured a new career high World Ranking thanks to his run to the Rotterdam Semi Final. Another upset would see Bellucci enter the top 60 of the World Rankings and wins over Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas will have given the young player a huge amount of confidence.

Credit has to be given to Mattia Bellucci for playing the clutch moments as well as he has, particularly when he has been put under pressure on his own serve.

In the last two matches against Medvedev and Tsitsipas, Mattia Bellucci has faced 16 Break Points and he has managed to save 15 of those to earn the upsets over two players Ranked inside the top 12.

The lefty serve is traditionally one that orthodox players have struggled to deal with and that has been the case in 2025 with Bellucci managing to hold 90% of his service games played. That number is up at 95% for the tournament here in Rotterdam, although Mattia Bellucci is going to know that the challenge presented by Alex De Minaur on the return is another tough one to deal with.

Strong runs in Rotterdam have become a part of Alex De Minaur's early season form and that is the case again in 2025 with three very strong wins on the board. The draw has opened up for the Australian, but Alex De Minaur has taken advantage and he has been a dominant winner in all three matches.

He has served as well as Mattia Bellucci, but the edge for De Minaur is how well he has been returning and he is capable of putting the Italian under pressure by making sure he gets his teeth into rallies.

You cannot overlook how well Bellucci has handled the pressure against big names already this week, but he will need to keep that going and someone like Alex De Minaur is going to test him mentally and physically. As mentioned earlier this week, De Minaur has been very good when playing those he is expected to beat and the World Number 8 will begin next week higher than Novak Djokovic in the World Rankings with a win in this Semi Final.

Covering the spread will not be easy, but Alex De Minaur has been playing really well this week and wearing opponents down and he can do the same with Mattia Bellucci.

MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 3-2, + 0.54 Units (5 Units Staked, + 10.80% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2024- Teofimo Lopez vs Jamaine Ortiz (Thursday 8th Febraury)

There is a rare Thursday night treat from the world of Boxing this week as Top Rank takes advantage of fans who may be heading to Las Vegas early.

The Super Bowl is played in the City on Sunday so a Saturday evening fight night slot may not have captured the headlines as much as this Thursday night offering may do.

It helps that the card is being headlined by a bonafide potential star, if he is not one already.

On Saturday we do have a couple of cards being run in the United Kingdom from Matchroom and Queensberry, both taking place a short distance from one another in London, but it is the card headlined by Hamzah Sheeraz and Liam Williams that will be one of most importance.

Unfortunately we do not have fight week to look forward to which would have culminated in Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury fighting it out for the Undisputed Heavyweight Championship. An injury has delayed that event until May and so it is Teofimo Lopez who is the biggest name heading out to defend his titles this month.

Teofimo Lopez vs Jamaine Ortiz

There have been plenty of issues for Teofimo Lopez to deal with outside of the ring and some felt that the fighter who toppled Vasyl Lomachenko might already have peaked.

A loss to George Kambosos Jr saw Lopez hand over the World Titles he had earned, and the decision to move up to Light Welterweight came with a couple of poor performances where it sounded like Teofimo Lopez himself was questioning his own ability.

He always denied that was the case and came through a fight against the linear Champion in the weight class as Lopez deservedly got the better of Josh Taylor.

One retirement and reversal later, Teofimo Lopez is back in the ring this week not only looking to build on the Taylor win, but perhaps impress enough to suggest he should be going with another elite, pound for pound fighter.

Teofimo Lopez has called out Terence Crawford for a fight at Welterweight, although Bud looks to have his eyes firmly fixed on a potential Super-Fight with Canelo.

The Champion has to focus on Jamaine Ortiz this week and they have amateur history against one another, while the only loss suffered by Ortiz came against Lomachenko in a closer than expected fight.

He is moving up for this opportunity, and the question is whether Jamaine Ortiz was really good or Vasyl Lomachenko was not quite to his top level in that fight. Regardless, the Lopez performance against the same fighter was stronger and he is a very big favourite, unsurprisingly, to defend his Title.

One feeling that is hard to shake about Teofimo Lopez is that he has tended to fight up or down to the level of opponent- not many fighters of his age can say they hold solid wins over Lomachenko and Taylor, but there have been some sub-par performances which have been down to outside of the ring issues.

He is clearly talking up the chances of making a statement on Thursday, and Teofimo Lopez does look happier all around.

If he is fully focused, Lopez certainly has the pop to really begin to break down Jamaine Ortiz.

The performance against Lomachenko was a good one and Jamaine Ortiz also beat Jemel Herring, although the latter retired for a short time in the aftermath of that defeat. Inactivity is an issue that could work against Ortiz against a quality fighter like Teofimo Lopez and the Champion may just have enough about him to work a way to a finish without the Judges.

Most are expecting a Decision win for the favourite, but Teofimo Lopez had Josh Taylor troubled at times and the former Champion is a big Light-Welterweight. With Ortiz coming up in weight, Lopez may have the power to have more of an impact and he can find the Stoppage.

The main undercard bout on this Las Vegas fight night features Keyshawn Davis who looks to continue his step up in the Lightweight Division.

A couple of years ago this was a loaded Division, but the likes of Devin Haney, Gervonta Davis and Teofimo Lopez have moved upwards, as has Ryan Garcia. After collecting all of the Belts, Haney has been letting them go following a successful foray into the Light Welterweight Division.

Keyshawn Davis is one of the up and coming fighters within the Division and there are a couple of vacant World Titles that will soon have a Champion's hand attached to them.

There is still a little bit of a gap to bridge to the very top names in the Division, but this is a chance for Davis to show he is ready against veteran Jose Pedraza.

It has been twelve months since Pedraza was last in the ring losing a close Decision to Arnold Barboza Jr and the veteran has become used to giving some of the quality names in and around the Division a tough test.

Gervonta Davis did finish Jose Pedraza in the Seventh Round, but the latter has since forced the likes of Vasyl Lomachenko, Jose Zepeda, Jose Carlos Ramirez and Barboza Jr to need the Judges' scorecards in wins over him.

The expectation is that Keyshawn Davis will be a little too young and fresh for Jose Pedraza, but he has been forced to go the distance in three of his last four fights and this is a Ten Rounder. It likely means Davis becomes the latest to get the better of the veteran over the full distance and the youngster can bank more valuable Rounds before thinking to increase the level of opponent being faced.

MY PICKS: Teofimo Lopez to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.87 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Keyshawn Davis to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2024: 5-7, + 4.81 Units (17 Units Staked, + 28.29% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Thursday 8th February)

A mixed bag of results on Wednesday were a touch frustrating considering the amount of opportunities that were missed by the final selection of the day.

It is something that has been common in 2024, but the Picks have largely performed better this week and the Thursday selections will come from the WTA Abu Dhabi and ATP Marseille events being played.

Hopefully another winning day can be produced and this week can be the positive start of the recovery period that I have been looking for after the truly rough Australian Open.

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Danielle Collins: Priorities certainly can change for all athletes, but especially female athletes that wish to start a family.

That is the situation for Danielle Collins even if some have suspected the frustrating injuries that have seen her World Ranking drop from Number 7 in July 2022 to her current Number 71 spot.

This is going to be the final year on the Tour and Collins has already shown that she wants to go out with some serious memories left on the court. After pushing Iga Swiatek all the way, and perhaps even blowing the chance to beat the top Seed in the Australian Open, the American crushed Naomi Osaka in the First Round in Abu Dhabi and that gives her a real edge in terms of knowing what to expect when Collins heads out onto the court.

She is facing Elena Rybakina who had a disappointing Second Round exit in Melbourne when going down 22-20 in an epic Tie-Breaker.

A title has already been won by Rybakina on the hard courts this season and she will be looking to bounce back when heading to the Middle East for the big tournaments before Indian Wells and Miami. Elena Rybakina knows she needs to string the wins together now before the clay court portion of the season and her big game will be tough for Danielle Collins to contain.

That was the case in the two hard court matches played between Elena Rybakina and Danielle Collins in 2023 and the former had a massive edge when it comes to the serving numbers.

You can never tell how a player is feeling after having almost three weeks off from the Tour and playing a first match in an event, but Rybakina could have too much power for Danielle Collins as long as she serves well.

An aggressive return game will keep Collins under pressure too and the World Number 5 can put a big win on the board.

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 games v Zhizhen Zhang: It has been a difficult twelve months for Felix Auger-Aliassime and he can be a tough player to trust to cover spreads with his relatively poor return performances.

He looked good in his first match in Marseille and Auger-Aliassime is likely going to receive plenty of support.

Serving well will always give him a chance to put some scoreboard pressure on opponents and he is facing some with a lot less experience in Zhizhen Zhang.

The three tournament losses suffered by Zhizhen Zhang this season have all been against top 20 Ranked opponents- Felix Auger-Aliassime is not amongst those numbers right now in his career, but he is capable of that level and Zhang may struggle to stick with this opponent if the Canadian can find his best.

In the matches against top 100 Ranked opponents, Zhizhen Zhang has really struggled to have an impact on the return and that is expected to be the case here.

And while the Felix Auger-Aliassime return is not always the most impressive part of his tennis, he has broken in 24% of return games played this season. This is a small sample and maintaining that level will be the challenge for Auger-Aliassime, but he can impose his tennis on this match and earn a solid win.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Felix Auger-Aliassime - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 0.66 Units (14 Units Staked, + 4.71% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2023 (February 8th)

This has been a week in which I have largely been keeping an eye out on the opening matches at the five tournaments being played and that is because there have not been a lot of options that have hit my criteria to be down as a Tennis Pick.

Some quality players are looking to build some Ranking points, but the lines have been pretty tight, while the majority of the First Round and Second Round matches that have been played have been tough for me to get a really good read on.

The biggest event of the week is the WTA tournament in Abu Dhabi, where a number of top 20 Ranked players are playing, and that is where the focus for the Tennis Picks are for Wednesday.

Belinda Bencic - 3.5 games v Marta Kostyuk: Being inside the top ten of the World Rankings is clearly a positive for any player, but Belinda Bencic must feel her chances of winning a first Grand Slam are getting longer and longer in each passing season. She opened 2023 in pretty strong form with a defeat to Iga Swiatek the only one before the Australian Open, but the Swiss Miss was beaten by Aryna Sabalenka in Melbourne and her wait for a Slam goes on.

A glass half full kind of character would at least point out that the two defeats suffered by Belinda Bencic this season have both come against top quality opponents. And Sabalenka going on to win the Australian Open might suggest that Belinda Bencic is not that far away when it comes to winning a Grand Slam in what is a very open WTA Tour.

Belinda Bencic has shown she has an all-court game with some decent clay court results and she will look at February and March as an opportunity to build some momentum before the run towards the French Open begins. Winning a title in Abu Dhabi at a WTA 500 level will be a real boost for the overall confidence and I do think Bencic is rightly put down as the favourite to win this week.

However, she cannot expect players to roll over for her and this is the first match that Belinda Bencic will have played since her disappointing exit at the Australian Open. On the other hand, Marta Kostyuk reached the Quarter Final in Hua Hin last week and has already won a First Round match here in Abu Dhabi while Bencic was receiving a Bye into the Second Round.

The young Ukrainian has perhaps been at the forefront of other tennis discussions rather than those focused on her actual play, but that leadership quality will help Marta Kostyuk in the future. She has long been seen as a potential Grand Slam Champion and the 20 year old has shown the kind of level she can produce when she is at her best.

Consistency is going to be the key and Marta Kostyuk has yet to find that as often as she would like- her numbers have been decent on the hard courts since the start of the 2023 season, but five of her nine wins have been against players Ranked outside the top 100 and the 4-4 record against the stronger players on the Tour is less encouraging.

The returning numbers have not been good enough as far as Kostyuk is concerned, while she has a 0-5 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. In that time Marta Kostyuk has won a single set, and her second serve has been a considerable weakness in those matches, which is an area that Belinda Bencic will look to exploit.

Belinda Bencic serves well to put the pressure on her opponents, but there is room for improvement when it comes to the points won against serve. However, there has been a big leap from her overall returning numbers to when Bencic faces players Ranked outside the top 50 on the hard courts over the last twelve months and I do think she can beat Marta Kostyuk as she did in Miami last year.

This one is not likely to be as comfortable as it was in that Masters event, but Belinda Bencic can win and cover this handicap mark.

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: After their meeting at the Australian Open, Jannik Sinner will be looking to make a much faster start than he did in Melbourne when he found himself 0-2 down in sets to Marton Fucsovics.

They were two close sets and Sinner should have won at least one of those, but he managed to take full control of the match over the remaining three sets and only dropped three more games.

Marton Fucsovics has been on the path back from injury, but there is still work to do as he has dropped back to World Number 69 and the Hungarian was well beaten twice in Davis Cup action this past weekend. He did win a First Round match here and Jannik Sinner has not played since losing to Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Fourth Round at the Australian Open, but it may still not be enough reason to believe Fucsovics can make this a closer match than it ended up being in Melbourne.

My biggest concern with backing Jannik Sinner to cover this kind of line is that he has not always been able to look after his serve as he would like- he has held 83% of hard court service games played in 2023 and Sinner was broken five times by Marton Fucsovics when they met last month. However, the Italian did show some positive improvement in the return part of his tennis over the first month of the season and this Fucsovics serve is still one that is vulnerable as he looks to get back up to full speed.

Over the last twelve months Marton Fucsovics has only held 76% of service games played on the hard courts against top 100 Ranked opponents.

That number has dipped to 62% in the first month of this season against such opponents and I think Sinner can do enough to cover here.

MY PICKS: Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Veronika Kudermetova - 2.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Shelby Rogers @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.50 Units (6 Units Staked, - 41.67% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2021 (February 8th)

For all of the right reasons, the Australian Open was delayed three weeks as players, their teams and families had to quarantine to make sure Australia remained on top of the Covid-19 pandemic which is causing issues around the world.

Some have been concerned about the impact of having so many arrive from different parts of the world, while you can't criticise anyone for feeling unease about the situation. Locals were perhaps not so keen on hosting the Australian Open this year, but I do think the organisers have done a good job to this point and sports have proven to provide a welcome distraction from the grim realities around us.

Of course it is important the players and all those around them as well as the local communities are kept as safe as possible and so the Australian Open will have a different feel to normal times. However I am glad we are going to get two weeks of strong tennis with the Tours really getting underway for the 2021 year at this moment.

I have written down a few thoughts about the draws for the Men's and Women's Single tournaments that are going to be played in Melbourne and with some Outright selections which can be read here.

As with most seasons, I don't really get into the Tennis Picks until the Australian Open gets underway with the limited tournaments that are played in the lead up to the first Grand Slam of the season. It has been a longer wait than usual to get the 2021 tournament underway, but I still felt it was a good idea to take a watching brief of the events that Tennis Australia put on with players coming out of quarantine and having limited practice time as well as competitive matches.

Some players look to be showing they are in tip top form already, but this is potentially going to be a stranger Grand Slam than most with the suggestion that the quarantine rules might have a serious impact on individuals in vastly different ways.

It is something that may be worth keeping in mind, but there look to be solid options to get the tournament underway on Day 1 when the top half of the Men's drawn and the bottom half of the Women's draw have their First Round matches scheduled to be played.

That means the likes of Naomi Osaka, Serena Williams, Simona Halep, Novak Djokovic and Dominic Thiem are all going to be out there on Day 1, but they will benefit from the relatively mild conditions in Melbourne on Monday. Temperatures look to be rocketing upwards in the next three days and being able to play in the cooler conditions will certainly help players who are not as prepared for the Australian Open as they would be if things were different.

John Millman - 1.5 sets v Corentin Moutet: There are ten years between John Millman and Corentin Moutet, but I think the veteran Australian can win his opening match in his home Grand Slam.

A couple of matches were placed under the belt in the ATP Cup earlier this week and it is hard to really know what kind of form John Millman is in on the extremely small sample we have. Instead you can see the Aussie has been relatively consistent on the hard courts in recent seasons and there is little sign of decline in the 31 year old who is still capable of winning matches at this level.

He is once again approaching his peak World Ranking and a strong run at the Australian Open could see John Millman crack the top 30. The numbers on the hard courts in the last couple of seasons have been very similar with John Millman winning around 64% of the service points played and just under 38% of the return points which has led to Millman holding around 80% of service games and breaking in 23%.

Against an opponent of the level of Corentin Moutet I do think those numbers are impressive enough for John Millman to be rightly favoured and I think he can be beat the young Frenchman who is still searching for consistency. Corentin Moutet is coming in off a strong week having reached the Semi Final of one of the warm up events that were hosted in Melbourne, but over the last couple of years it is the breaks of serve which have let him down on this surface.

The Frenchman has similar kind of service numbers as John Millman, but in 2019 and 2020 he broke serve significantly fewer times than his opponent in the First Round here. His five matches played in Melbourne over the last week will be encouraging for Corentin Moutet and give him confidence, but he has never won a match at the Australian Open and that could play on the mind.

John Millman does not exactly have a record to write home about in this Grand Slam, but he has not lost in the First Round since 2015 and his best Slam performances have been on the hard courts here in Melbourne and in New York City. Even at this stage of his career, I think Millman can use his superior returning to edge out Corentin Moutet and I would expect him to do that in three or four sets.

Alexander Zverev - 7.5 games v Marcos Giron: There are going to be plenty of eyes on Alexander Zverev in the 2021 season as many look to see whether the German can pick himself up from the disappointing defeat in the US Open Final in September 2020. You can't get any closer to winning a Grand Slam without winning one, although the strong finish to the end of the 2020 calendar year will give his fans confidence.

For a long time fans have been expecting Alexander Zverev to take the next step in his career and that is by winning a Grand Slam title, but it does feel that his window is not as big as it once was. With the Big Three still playing as well as any player out there and the improvement of the likes of Dominic Thiem, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev will be hoping he can fly under the radar and play his tennis without the sense of expectation on his shoulders.

Losses to Djokovic and Medvedev in the ATP Cup will mean most will be looking elsewhere at potential Australian Open Champions, but Zverev should be capable of producing a good win to open his run in Melbourne. He is a very competent hard court player, although you would like to see Alexander Zverev improve his service numbers to make life a little easier for himself.

This looks a good chance for Alexander Zverev to make a comfortable progression through the First Round when he faces American Marcos Giron who only reached his career best World Ranking of Number 70 last month. At 27 years old you do have to wonder if Marcos Giron is reaching his peak performance level, but his numbers are considerably weaker than Zverev's on the hard courts and especially when it comes to the return of serve.

It likely means the favourite can work his way through the match without too many concerns about his second serve, which has been a hindrance to Zverev, while Marcos Giron has seen his service holds slip to under 80% when he plays at the main ATP level. You don't want to completely dismiss the chances of Giron who has a 6-11 record on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked players and that only drops to 2-6 when facing top 20 Ranked players.

However Marcos Giron has given up at least eight break point chances in seven of those eight matches and his break percentage drops alarmingly to 10%. If Alexander Zverev is focused, which he should be in a Grand Slam tournament, I think he will be able to grind down Giron over the best of five set format and he should find the breaks of serve to eventually pull clear of the mark for the match.

Novak Djokovic - 9.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: The World Number 1, the two time defending Champion at the Australian Open and the favourite to win the tournament over the next two weeks will open his time in Melbourne in the Night Session on Day 1 of the event. Novak Djokovic also brings in a 13-0 winning record against Jeremy Chardy and I think it would be the kind of shock that won't be surpassed in the next fortnight if the top Seed is not playing again in a couple of days time.

The two wins at the ATP Cup suggests Novak Djokovic is in good nick and he has spoken of the kind of comfort level he has in Melbourne even if some of the off-court activities have not exactly endeared him to the paying public. I still expect Novak Djokovic to have plenty of support and he remains the top hard court player in the world even if the likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev are getting closer to him all the time.

Motivation won't be in question as Djokovic has spoken clearly about wanting to end his career with more Grand Slam titles than rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and Melbourne has been his Slam where Wimbledon and the French Open have been associated with the other two players respectively. Last year Novak Djokovic won for the eighth time here and is overall numbers on the hard courts remain at a very high level.

It is a big test for Jeremy Chardy who has dropped to World Number 66 in the Rankings and who had a 2-5 record on the hard courts last season. 2020 was not a normal year on the Tour, but Chardy is always under pressure to serve well against the top names he faces because his break numbers have not really been very good on the surface for a lot longer than the last twelve months.

The Frenchman has reached two Semi Finals this year which has to be confidence building for him, but Jeremy Chardy has to be a little troubled by the fact he has held just 74% of service games played despite those runs. It is particularly the case when going up against Novak Djokovic who wins 43% of the return points played against Jeremy Chardy which has led to breaks of serve in 35% of return games played.

Novak Djokovic has simply not given much away to Jeremy Chardy and it builds immense pressure on the serve of the latter and the Frenchman has yet to win a set against the World Number 1. The break percentage does drop to 30% in their seven hard court matches which might make this handicap mark a tough one to overcome, but Novak Djokovic has broken the Jeremy Chardy serve 48% of the time in their four Grand Slam matches and all have seen him win by at least a ten game margin.

A couple of the sets could be tight, but I think Novak Djokovic is always capable of winning at least one set in a 6-1 scoreline and that should give him a chance of covering this mark. Jeremy Chardy's two hard court Grand Slam defeats came in pretty routine fashion and Djokovic can push through for a good win.

Denis Shapovalov-Jannik Sinner over 38.5 games: Two young, vibrant and extremely talented players meet in what could easily be described as the best of the Men's First Round matches at the Australian Open in 2021. Both Denis Shapovalov and Jannik Sinner are going to be expecting to be challenging for Grand Slam titles in the years ahead, and there are signs that those years are going to come around sooner rather than later.

The two losses at the ATP Cup against some of the very best players on the Tour will have hurt Denis Shapovalov, but he wasn't completely outclassed by Novak Djokovic and Alexander Zverev. I am not sure he is going to be able to compete against them in much better fashion at the Australian Open, but a First Round exit would be a big disappointment for a player who reached the US Open Quarter Final a few months ago.

It won't be easy to get through the First Round when Shapovalov is set to play Jannik Sinner, a title winner in the warm up events for the Australian Open. The Italian is already at a career high World Ranking, but at 19 years old there is so much more to come from Jannik Sinner and there is much excitement about the future he is going to have on the Tour.

There is still some learning to be done on the hard courts, but Sinner did have a decent mark of 80% of service games behind held and just under 25% of return games seeing him break. His returning is certainly looking like a stronger part of his game than Denis Shapovalov's who has broken in less than 20% of return games played on the hard courts in each of the last two seasons and who earned just four break points in two matches at the ATP Cup.

Even at 21 years old, the Canadian does have the experience edge but the return edge could prove crucial for Jannik Sinner in what looks a very competitive First Round match.

The lefty Denis Shapovalov serve is going to be a big weapon too, but I would be surprised if this match is going to be concluded in straight sets for either player. With the way they match up with each other, I have to give a very narrow edge to Jannik Sinner, although I do think the long week in the legs could just see him run out of steam the longer this match goes.

My feeling is that we are going to have to see a couple of tie-breakers to sort through this and the two players could exchange the early sets which would put the match in a position to cover the total games line. Both should be able to have enough serving success to see this match go long enough and this should be a fun one to watch in what could be the start of a long rivalry on the ATP Tour.

Katie Boulter + 4.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: There are a number of British players that have headed over to Melbourne to take part in the Australian Open and one of those is hoping for an injury free 2021 after what has been a disappointing number of months. Katie Boulter hit her peak World Ranking in February 2019, but injuries have prevented her development and she is now playing on a Protected Ranking having fallen outside the World's top 200.

There is pressure to not only compete, but pick up wins when you are on a Protected Ranking and Katie Boulter has put a couple of the board in the warm up event for the Australian Open. She was also competitive in the defeat to Naomi Osaka and that should be encouraging for Boulter as she comes in as a pretty big underdog in the First Round match.

It isn't that long ago that Daria Kasatkina was inside the top 10 of the World Rankings, but her form has deserted her over the last two and a half years. There is a clearly a quality player inside her, but Kasatkina's serve has left her vulnerable and it has given opponents the chance to get on top of her.

The 3-2 start on the hard courts in 2021 will be encouraging and Kasatkina has shown significant improvement in the service numbers in those matches. However it is an extremely small sample to believe that is the way Kasatkina has developed, and I do think someone like Katie Boulter has enough about her to keep things competitive even in a losing effort.

With the expectation on Daria Kasatkina's shoulders, I do think a steady performance from Boulter will be enough to keep this one close. The British player would love to see an improvement in her return numbers, but she has a decent serve and the conditions in Melbourne may suit her on Monday as may have commented it could be a quicker surface that they are playing on.

At 23 years old I have no doubt that we have not seen the best of Daria Kasatkina just yet, but it can't be ignored that she has lost in the First Round at the US Open and Australian Open in her last four appearances across those tournaments. The belief that she should be winning matches like this one only builds the pressure on players and I think it will give Katie Boulter an opportunity to showcase some of her own skills.

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 games v Vera Zvonareva: You have to give someone a lot of credit for the passion they clearly have for the sport when they are still chugging along on the Tour at 36 years old and with their best years clearly behind them. Vera Zvonareva is a former World Number 2 who reached the Finals at the US Open and Wimbledon while twice being a Semi Finalist at the Australian Open, but injury set her back and she comes into the 2021 event outside of the World's top 100.

In more recent times it has been a struggle for Vera Zvonareva to rediscover her form and she has won just a single Grand Slam match in the main draw since 2015. The early form in 2021 hasn't looked too bad, but Zvonareva will be the first to note that she has yet to beat a player inside the top 69 in the World Rankings and in recent years the Russian has struggled to compete with top 50 players on the hard courts.

A compatriot who is sixteen years Vera Zvonareva's junior and who is Ranked inside the top 20 is the First Round opponent and I am a big fan of Elena Rybakina and what she could achieve in the years ahead. She was beaten in her first match in the warm up tournament she played in this week, but Elena Rybakina did push Aryna Sabalenka all the way in a Quarter Final last month and is a player on the definite improvement trail.

The hard court numbers have been strong from Rybakina, although she would need to improve the returning aspect to take the next step in her development. Elena Rybakina's serve is a big weapon though and she is on the right road to produce a new career best World Ranking in the weeks ahead.

I do think the serve is going to be the difference maker between these players on the day and the potentially faster conditions should help Elena Rybakina break through the Vera Zvonareva defences. The latter is someone who has shown she can really knuckle down and make life hard for opponents, but I think Rybakina is going to have too much power for her older compatriot whose best tennis is behind her.

Over the last two years Elena Rybakina has really dominated those players that she is expected to beat and I think we will see the same on Day 1 at the Australian Open as she moved into the Second Round with a solid looking win.

MY PICKS: John Millman - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 7.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 9.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov-Jannik Sinner Over 38.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Katie Boulter + 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Dominik Koepfer - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Adrian Mannarino - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Yoshihito Nishioka - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

2021: - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2020- Kell Brook vs Mark DeLuca (February 8th)

This is the first Boxing Picks being made in the 2020 season as I try and just readjust the sights on the way the selections are being made in the upcoming year.

I have ended in profit for the last couple of years, but the win-loss ratio needs improving to really start piling up the numbers. That is the key for the upcoming year, although Boxing has proven to be a sport which offers some very nice prices on outcomes once you look beyond the simple outright markets where you do tend to get some very heavy favourites week to week.


There are going to be some big fights in the year ahead and the biggest may be the potential two bouts Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder will be competing in. The first of those is definitely scheduled for this month and the outcome by decide whether we need to see another later in the year, while the Heavyweights under the Matchroom banner are all going to be in action before the midway point of the 2020 year.

A couple of those potential fights are intriguing, but I think some of the biggest bouts that can be put together come from the lower weights and hopefully 2020 is going to be the year we get to see those.


On Saturday it is the return of Kell Brook having been out of the ring for fourteen months, while Gary Russell Jr insists he will increase his activity in 2020 as he comes out in February with plenty of time to schedule another bout in this calendar year.

The cards in Sheffield and Allentown are not that deep, but it is the start of the Boxing Picks for 2020 and hopefully a positive start to come.

David Allen vs Dorian Darch

A short lived retirement is over for David Allen who returns from his disappointing defeat to David Price back in July.

Once again the White Rhino is looking to put some momentum behind his career, although I am not convinced he should continue fighting after hearing his comments after the defeat to Price.

However it is up to Allen and if he thinks he is ready to come back and compete at a certain level I am not so concerned. I don't want to see him in with opponents who completely overmatch him again and he should be focusing on trying to pick up the British Title (as long as Daniel Dubois isn't Champion) and then call time on his career.

His comeback opponent looks a perfect one as Dorian Darch has long been nothing more than a journeyman. The Welshman has lost six in a row and he has been stopped in all of those with none of those bouts seeing out the Second Round.

It would be a surprise if this one is any different even though Allen is not really known as a big puncher. Very few of his fights have been stopped early, but I am not sure Darch has much left these days and if Allen can put together a couple of big punches he should be very comfortable on the day.

This has the feel of a comeback fight for David Allen and backing him to win in either the first two Rounds is an odds against shout I am happy to back.

Kell Brook vs Mark DeLuca

He looks fit and healthy, but there are still some real questions that Kell Brook is going to have to answer on Saturday in what might be the last time he fights in Sheffield.

Fourteen months have passed since Brook was last seen in the ring as he struggled to beat Michael Zerafa- that win didn't look so bad when Zerafa went on and beat Jeff Horn in August last year, although the latter has since gained some revenge in a Decision win.

Ring rust has to be a concern, but Kell Brook is back in the Ingle gym and he looks like he has put in the hard graft.

This is a big step up for American Mark DeLuca who has a decent 24-1 record, but with nothing standing out on his resume. From largely domestic level DeLuca is heading to Sheffield to take on a former World Champion and I am not happy when I see some of the body language he has displayed in the last week of the fight.

The final face to face is not always a great indicator of how a fighter is feeling, but DeLuca breaking eye contact and wanting to move away from Brook is not a good look no matter how much you feel that is going to be a factor.

Kell Brook does know he has to make a statement and I do think the potential ring rust could be a concern. The fight is likely going to see Brook come out pretty fast and I do think we will learn much about DeLuca very early on and how much he is going to be willing to take in this one.

The Michael Zerafa performance does raise some concerns, but I think Brook will come out ready to make a big time statement.

This should be a chance for him to do that against an opponent who is not half as good as Zerafa. Mark DeLuca has a big chance to announce himself on the world scene, but I am not convince he believes he can do that and backing Kell Brook to win in the first half of this bout.

MY PICKS: David Allen to Win Round One or Two @ 2.14 Bet Victor (2 Units)- Dutch him winning in Round One at 3.75 and Round Two at 5.00 with Victor.

Kell Brook to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 8th)

The poor start looks some way behind us coming to the end of the week and it was a decent Friday which has completed the turn around.

It is good to see the formula being used as one that is still helping produce a profit, although I don't think early February is the time to get too excited about results. As I say many times over the course of eleven months, the Tennis Tour is a very long season and it is only going to be a successful one if you can get out of any negative ruts without spiralling out of control first.


We are down to the final four at the three ATP tournaments on Saturday and so the Tennis Picks over the next two days might be a little limited.

The two Semi Final matches at ATP Montpellier look difficult to call and I will take a look at the ATP Cordoba Semi Finals when the markets have been formulated. However, I do think we can take a side in both Semi Final matches at ATP Pune which can be read below.

I will add the Weekly Totals at the very least to this thread once the Friday matches are completed and any Picks from Cordoba will also be placed here at that time.


MY PICKS: Jiri Vesely @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Egor Gerasimov @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 12-10, + 1.82 Units (44 Units Staked, + 4.14% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (February 8-17)

The English Winter Break is in play for the first time this season and I think it has not gone as well as the Premier League and the top clubs would have hoped.

Teething problems for a new part of the calendar are not that surprising, but you have to think the FA would have realised that placing FA Cup Fourth Round Replays during what should have been the time off was going to be problematic. Some are calling for Replays to be scrapped all together, but I am not sure that is going to be passed by lower League clubs who know the kind of impact this competition gives them from a financial point of view, especially when lucky enough to pair up with a big name.

The Fifth Round Replays are already gone so it wouldn't be a big surprise if further changes are made to the famous old Cup, but something is going to have to be done which could include starting the Premier League one week earlier than normal, or making changes to the League Cup Semi Final and removing the two Legs.

Things could become more problematic in the years ahead if UEFA make changes to their Champions League format as has been long rumoured, while the addition of a third European competition won't be easing what is a congested English calendar already. The potential of the Premier League being cut from 20 to 18 teams can't be ignored either, even though many clubs will rail against that too, and it looks to be some decisions that need to be made.


The Winter Break is here for now in a format where eight of the Premier League clubs will play this weekend and the remaining twelve will play next weekend. It will satisfy the television companies who can broadcast every game, while the majority of teams involved will get their full rest that was promised to them in April 2019.

I will add the remaining Picks from this round of games to this thread next week, but the Fantasy Football deadline is Saturday 8th February which covers two weekends. More on that after the Football Picks are placed below.


Everton v Crystal Palace Pick: The Premier League is going on a Winter Break, but unlike other European Leagues which do the same it means the ten fixtures scheduled in this week will be split over two weeks.

This weekend we have four League games beginning with this one from Goodison Park and both Everton and Crystal Palace will be looking for some key points to get closer to fulfilling their ambitions for the season.

Everton have been in fine form under Carlo Ancelotti and key figures were back last weekend which helped them overcome Watford at Vicarage Road. They have been creating chances galore under the Italian manager and the team would have been flying up the League standings if they had not blown a 2-0 lead over Newcastle United last time out here.

Frustratingly for the home fans and Everton backers they conceded twice within 60 seconds deep into injury time in that game so Crystal Palace will note there are some vulnerabilities which can be exploited. And despite the back to back home League losses, Crystal Palace have remained a stubborn and hard to beat team when they go out on their travels.

Roy Hodgson would likely accept a point from this game, but Everton might have a bit too much in the final third. The improving injury crisis at Crystal Palace makes them more dangerous, but the side have not defended as well as they would have liked and they struggle for goals.

Everton have won their last couple at Goodison Park against Crystal Palace, and I think they can be backed to win this one in a game that features two or more goals shared out.


Brighton v Watford Pick: It might be too early to describe this a 'relegation six pointer', but there is no doubting the importance of this Premier League fixture between Brighton and Watford.

Just 3 points separate Brighton in 15th place and Watford in 19th place so there is no doubt the outcome of the fixture is going to have a big impact in how these teams will go into the remainder of the season.

A Brighton win will certainly make them feel they are well on the way to safety, but a Watford victory drags a number of clubs back towards the relegation fight so there will be plenty of eyes on this one.

Brighton have been playing well, but they have looked very poor defensively which has been exploited by clubs. Conceding three times to both Bournemouth and West Ham United underlines the point, although both were played away from the Amex Stadium.

The one theme that continues to be displayed is that Brighton are likely to concede goals, but they create enough chances to hurt teams too.

This weekend they host a Watford team who might be regretting recent dropped points- Nigel Pearson's men missed a penalty in the goalless draw with Tottenham Hotspur and had a 0-1 lead at Aston Villa and 2-0 lead over Everton but lost both of those games.

In the main the manager has to be happy with the reaction of his players to his voice since coming in, but Pearson will also recognise how important those dropped points could be. I don't think he will change his style where Watford have been creating chances and scoring goals, but they have struggled defensively despite having a goalkeeper like Ben Foster between the sticks and like Brighton they look like a team that will score and concede goals.

A draw might not be the worst result for either team in the bigger picture, but I don't think either Graham Potter nor Nigel Pearson would take that before a ball has been kicked. With that in mind I am expecting to see an attacking game and the teams pushing forward which could see them combine for three or more goals.

In recent seasons this has not been a fixture which has been very high-scoring, but Brighton scored three earlier this season and I am going to back at least three goals to be shared out here with my expectation being that both score at least once.


Sheffield United v Bournemouth Pick: With the majority of teams in and around them not playing until next weekend, Sheffield United have a chance to really put their credentials for a European berth open for all to see on Sunday.

This weekend they host a Bournemouth team who have won consecutive Premier League games, but Sheffield United have been in fine form themselves and looking to make Bramall Lane a little more difficult to visit.

Chris Wilder has done a fine job at Sheffield United this season, but the manager will be a touch disappointed that they have lost 5 of their 12 League games here. For all the good football that they are capable of playing, Sheffield United can be a little short of goals and will need to improve that if they are going to push on for a European place.

It might be something that needs to be addressed in the summer, but Sheffield United do create chances and they should cause problems for a Bournemouth team who have struggled defensively for much of the season. Eddie Howe's men have relied on some fortune to avoid heavier defeats than they have faced, while Bournemouth have struggled for goals away from the Vitality Stadium which makes it difficult to see them causing an upset here.

Backing Sheffield United at short odds has not been productive this season, but I do think they will be too good for Bournemouth this weekend.

There will likely be enough chances for the home team to win by a good margin too if they continue to play as they have and Bournemouth continue to struggle. Backing The Blades to cut through their opponents and win a game featuring at least two goals is an odds against quote and I think that is worth backing.


Manchester City v West Ham United Pick: There has clearly been something a little wrong at Manchester City this season as they have struggled for consistency in the final third- some of it is down to poor decision making and some of it is down to poor finishing, but not for the first time Manchester City created some gilt-edged chances in a game they eventually threw away when losing at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend.

I would expect the home team to have too much for West Ham United this weekend and bounce back from their disappointing losses to Manchester United and Spurs. They are still creating a bunch of chances and Manchester City are likely to do the same against a West Ham United team who have looked miserable at the back for much of the season.

Even the arrival of David Moyes has not really sparked them as expected and it looks like being another difficult afternoon for the East London club.

West Ham United blew a couple of two goal leads in their draw with Brighton last weekend and the next several weeks could see them cut off inside the bottom three. After this game The Hammers meet Liverpool, Southampton, Arsenal, Wolves, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea and you would not fancy them to take too many points from that run which will increase the pressure on the players.

They have been stubborn opponents for Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium in recent seasons in contrast to some home heavy losses West Ham United have taken. David Moyes will have had a week to prepare his players to do the same on Sunday, but Manchester City have to be looking for a reaction and I think they are going to be too strong for the visitors.

It is a big Asian Handicap when you think of the way Manchester City's form in the final third has fluctuated, but they are capable of putting teams to the sword. After the complacency of last Sunday, I think the manager will be emphasising focus in the final third this time around and Manchester City should come away with a relatively comfortable win.


Wolves v Leicester City Pick: Two Midlands clubs meet on Valentine's Day but there will be no gifts and proclamations of love being handed out when Wolves host Leicester City in the live televised offering.

Both of these clubs will be dreaming about playing in the Champions League next season and have serious ambitions of doing that. Leicester City are well on their way to a top four finish, but Wolves could join them with a strong run in either the Premier League or the Europa League.

Both teams have not been playing as poorly as the recent results may suggest, but like many clubs outside of Manchester City and Liverpool there is a sense of inconsistency in levels being produced. On one day you will see both Leicester City and Wolves looking as good as any club out there, but on another they can be ground down and struggling for composure in the final third.

Having a two week break should help the clubs as batteries have been recharged and the game being played on the Friday night should mean they avoid the tougher conditions that might be around the United Kingdom over the remainder of the weekend.

Wolves will look to get forward and that should also mean there are opportunities for Leicester City. In recent games played by these two clubs, chances have come at both ends of the field and, while fixtures between Wolves and Leicester City have been tight in the last eighteen months, I do think we will see goals when these two meet this weekend.

The layers are less convinced, but Wolves will have hosted all of the current top six by the end of this fixture- in the last 5 we have seen 4 feature three or more goals shared out. 7 of the last 8 Leicester City away games have also featured at least three goals and I think we will see enough chances at both ends which should give us every chance of seeing that amount of goals shared out on Friday too.


Southampton v Burnley Pick: There look to be some tough conditions to deal with on the south coast on Saturday and that may make it a more difficult game to predict at this stage.

However there is still some time for things to change and Southampton have to be confident in getting back to winning ways having lost at Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur in consecutive fixtures.

The last two months have seen Southampton in some very good form and they have begun to feel more comfortable playing at home. Ralph Hasenhuttl has the players on the same page and The Saints have won half of their last 8 home games in all competitions.

Southampton did blow a 2-0 lead over Wolves in the eventual 2-3 loss here in the League which means they have won half of their last 6 Premier League games here. They are creating chances and in Danny Ings they have a striker capable of taking them which will make Southampton a threat to teams in the final three months of the season.

It won't be easy against Burnley who can be difficult to face in perfect conditions, while Southampton have been a little vulnerable at the back throughout the season. The home team have only had 2 Premier League clean sheets at St Mary's since November 2018, but the goals have been coming and Burnley have had their issues away from home which has me leaning towards the home team.

If it is the high winds and heavy rains forecasted it will make it a difficult day for both teams and the bounce of the ball could come down to a bit of luck either way. Southampton also have had a poor couple of home results against Burnley, but I think the form they are in will give them the edge.

As good as the recent Burnley run has been, they have been riding their luck at the back and I will look for Southampton to win a game featuring two or more goals.


Norwich City v Liverpool Pick: There was a storm battering the United Kingdom last weekend and there is every chance we are going to see some very difficult conditions at Carrow Road on Saturday afternoon this weekend too.

That could even things up for Norwich City who have found the top clubs in the Premier League tough to deal with even when accounting for the 3-2 success over Manchester City earlier this season. Norwich City have been tougher to face in front of their own fans, but they are vulnerable defensively and that has been exposed by a number of clubs and in only 3 of their 12 home Premier League games have ended with the visitors scoring less than two goals.

It is going to be a test for Norwich City regardless of the playing conditions as we are set to deal with heavy rain and winds for a second weekend in a row.

The problem for Norwich City is that they are a team that wants to get the ball down and play too and that means they are not likely to throw in a load of crosses and try and unsettle Liverpool that way.

They have been scoring plenty of goals at home and Liverpool are far from watertight at the back regardless of their recent record of clean sheets. However I can't see how Norwich City will keep a clean sheet with a motivated Liverpool coming back from their own two week break and looking for some momentum to take into their Champions League Last 16 tie and I do think the away side are going to prove to be too strong.

Liverpool have won 6 in a row at Carrow Road and they have scored a boatload of goals in that run. 3 of their last 5 away wins in the Premier League have come by two or more goal margins and I think that is going to be the case on Saturday barring some big mistakes at the back when dealing with wet and windy conditions.

Half of Norwich City's 6 home losses in the Premier League have come by two or more goal margins and I will back Liverpool to do that here.


Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The first game from the two Sunday offerings from the Premier League comes from Villa Park and by all accounts the really poor weather of Saturday will likely be much more reasonable when this one kicks off.

It may still be wet and a little windy, but neither Dean Smith nor Jose Mourinho can afford to make excuses for their teams who are desperate for the three points for differing reasons.

Aston Villa are trying to fight to avoid the drop and Tottenham Hotspur are trying to get back into the race for the Champions League places so neither can really expect to want to settle for a point. The home team have played attacking football under Dean Smith and that has sometimes left them vulnerable at the back, but they do score goals and they can trouble a Tottenham Hotspur team that have not had a lot of clean sheets even after Jose Mourinho has come in.

The manager has had time to work with his players during this 'Winter Break' so we may see a more disciplined Tottenham Hotspur team, although they also have the distraction of a Champions League tie coming up.

In both recent Aston Villa and recent Tottenham Hotspur games teams have created chances at both ends of the field and the feeling is that this one won't be any different. The style of the home team should make it an open fixture and I would not be surprised if both teams were to find the back of the net.

With both teams likely keen on securing the three points it may keep things open through the majority of the ninety minutes and so backing at least three goals to be shared out looks the play.

I was close to suggesting Aston Villa with a start on the Asian Handicap, but their defensive concerns means I am less keen on that than backing at least three goals being produced on the day.


Arsenal v Newcastle United Pick: The Winter Break has come and gone for both Arsenal and Newcastle United and both managers will be hoping to feel the benefit of the short break immediately.

Mikel Arteta will be hoping the time away with his squad will help him and his players begin to understand one another a little more. The results since he took over as manager of Arsenal have been a little inconsistent with some decent performances mixed in with old defensive mistakes left over from Unai Emery's time in charge.

On the other side will be Steve Bruce who has performed better than expected as manager of Newcastle United and finally seems to be getting the fans behind him. The run to the FA Cup Fifth Round has helped him strengthen his position in charge and Bruce will be keen to have a number of squad members return from injury off the break.

The squad had looked stretched prior to the Break, but Newcastle United have been stubborn and hard to break down. They seem to be playing with a lot of belief that has helped the club fight back from losing positions and that makes them dangerous against an Arsenal team who have struggled at both ends of the field.

Arsenal fans will be hoping the break will have helped put together better patterns in attacking and defensive areas and it is a little difficult to trust them to win games at the moment. Like Newcastle United, Arsenal have saved their wins for FA Cup games rather than Premier League ones, but this is a team who have won 2 of their last 3 here.

Neither team can point to really strong defensive performances and I do think the attacking players will have the better of the game. Arsenal have won 7 in a row at the Emirates Stadium against Newcastle United which should aid the mentality of the players and I do think they will get the better of The Magpies in the second of the two live Sunday games from the Premier League.

It is not easy to trust Arsenal when you think of the prolonged poor run of results they have had, but in what could be an open game I would think they can win and cover the Asian Handicap in the process.


Chelsea v Manchester United Pick: The big game in the Premier League this weekend has been saved for Monday Night Football as Chelsea get set to host Manchester United. Both clubs have enjoyed two weeks to recharge the batteries and this is a game that could be pivotal to how the shake up for the Champions League places are concluded later this season.

Just 6 points separate Chelsea in 4th place and Manchester United in 8th and there will be a host of clubs keeping a keen eye on seeing how The Blues are coping with an increased pressure on them. While Chelsea have been stumbling, others have not been able to take advantage and that includes Manchester United who have won 1 of their last 5 Premier League games and been beaten 3 times in that run.

A lack of goals is a concern and Marcus Rashford remains sidelined so it is important for Odion Ighalo to get up and running immediately. There are chances being created by Manchester United and I do think the returns of Nemanja Matic and possibly Scott McTominay will really help the team going forward.

However they are facing a Chelsea team who have also been very good at creating chances without finding the consistency in the final third that Frank Lampard would have liked. Tammy Abraham has got goals, but not many against the better teams in the Premier League and there is a pressure on the young England striker after Chelsea were not able to bring in reinforcements in the January transfer window.

The lack of consistency in the final third has been punished by opponents taking advantage of what has been a vulnerable Chelsea defence and that may be the case here on Monday.

Manchester United have beaten Chelsea twice this season which will give them confidence, but Marcus Rashford scored four of the six goals and is missing. They are unbeaten in 3 at Stamford Bridge having scored at least twice in each of those visits, but Chelsea won't allow that to worry them and their style of play means they will likely get forward too.

I was close to backing Manchester United to avoid defeat, but it might need two goals from the away side to do that. Both teams will have their chances to score and I can see at least three goals being shared out when Chelsea and Manchester United meet on Monday.

A lack of United goals prior to the Winter Break is a concern, but they were creating chances and Ighalo has scored goals at this level. Having a more settled midfield will help, but Manchester United are far from watertight at the back and a high-scoring game is in prospect.

MY PICKS: Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 Coral (2 Units)
Brighton-Watford Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sheffield United & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.35 Coral (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.76 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wolves-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Southampton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aston Villa-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.99 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

February 2019/20: 4-4, - 0.06 Units (16 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)
January 2019/20: 5-12, - 14.66 Units (34 Units Staked, - 43.12% Yield)
December 2019/20: 16-14, - 0.58 Units (60 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
November 2019/20: 9-16, - 12.66 Units (50 Units Staked, - 25.32% Yield)
October 2019/20: 16-14-2, + 6.14 Units (62 Units Staked, + 9.90% Yield)
September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Fantasy Football GameWeek 26

Of course you can understand why the Premier League has placed a Winter Break into the schedule to try and help our clubs recover after a crazy couple of months.

The one thing most Fantasy Football players wanted to know was how GameWeek 26 was going to work in terms of our deadlines- would it be one to cover the round or two considering matches would be scheduled on different weekends?

The right decision was one deadline to cover the round, but the frustration is that we will only have eight of the scheduled twenty press conferences in the books before that deadline is met. It means almost second guessing some managers, while there are some key players who have picked up knocks that we won't be able to assess for this round of games.

I am a little frustrated by that too, although the majority of my squad do have a full bill of health going into this round of matches. Some may pick up knocks during their warm weather training camps, but it is what it is and we have to take it as it comes.

I mentioned last week that the FA Cup Replays could have an impact on GameWeek 31 and we will begin to note how many teams are going to be playing that weekend. Without a doubt I think the Free Hit chip is going to be most valuable for that round of games, although I think the draw for the FA Cup Sixth Round will be key.

That will be made after the Fifth Round ties are completed in the first midweek of March and barring a number of upsets I would be surprised if we don't have at least ten teams out of action in GameWeek 31. If there are less than that I may have to consider the draw and wonder if the Free Hit would be better used when the Semi Final weekend comes around, but those decisions will be for another day.

The worst case scenario is that only three Premier League matches remain in place and then the draw for the Sixth Round might be key in determining how I will handle the rest of the season.

We will come back to that in a couple of weeks once I get a few more thoughts about it cleared up.

My GW26 Team

I mentioned last weekend that I had some players on my list that will need to be removed with the Free Transfers over the next three or four weeks and I have begun that this weekend.

Last weekend I needed to change Sadio Mane for Mohamed Salah and it proved to be the key for the 79 points earned as the Egyptian managed 32 points of those with the Captain tag assigned.

While it means I had to delay some of my other transfers that I wanted to make, it is not a decision I will need to regret in what was a positive week after a difficult time of late.

The transfer this week was a pretty easy one as 'Cult' Fantasy player John Lundstram has been moved out of my team. I have had him before GW1 and the Sheffield United player has proved his worth by producing solid points all season.

However I have noted that his recent playing time has been on the decline and Chris Wilder has signed a player for a record fee that looks certain to take Lundstram's starting berth. He might still have some opportunities, but the signs are not good and moving him out in favour of team mate Enda Stevens was the call for me.

My GW27 transfer in two weeks time is also looking like a relatively straight-forward one to make, but it is always best to let fixtures be concluded in case some of the key members of the squad pick up injuries in the two weeks between the GW26 deadline and the GW27 one.

Alisson- Norwich City away and unlikely to be rested with the Champions League game at Atletico Madrid in mind.

Enda Stevens- Sheffield United been strong at keeping clean sheets and Stevens is a goal threat as well as a potential assist maker.

Serge Aurier- I am not convinced by Tottenham Hotspur at the back, but Serge Aurier can produce attacking returns.

Harry Maguire- my most difficult decision, but Manchester United have had two clean sheets against Chelsea this season. With likely better set piece delivery from Bruno Fernandes, perhaps a first League goal is not too far away either.

Mohamed Salah (C)- potential to be rested, but off a two week break I find it unlikely. Norwich City are poor at the back, and Mohamed Salah in fine form.

Kevin De Bruyne- home game against a porous West Ham United team.

Jack Grealish- tough home game against Spurs, but they are not quite right at the back and anything good from Aston Villa usually comes through Jack Grealish.

James Ward-Prowse- picked up a nasty injury against Tottenham Hotspur in the FA Cup Fourth Round, but I expect him to be ready in ten days time.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin- leading the line for a shot hungry Everton team against Crystal Palace.

Troy Deeney- big game for Watford this weekend, but Deeney has a habit of picking up his play in these moments. Has been in good form under Nigel Pearson.

Roberto Firmino- another I would expect to avoid a rest after a two week break and been better away from home than at Anfield in the Premier League.

Bench- Michael McGovern, Caglar Soyuncu (if Ward-Prowse can't go, I don't mind Soyuncu being first sub over other options), Federico Fernandez (difficult away game at Arsenal), Pablo Fornals (seems out of favour under David Moyes despite the attacking injuries at West Ham United).