Premier League Darts Night 2 Picks 2026 (Thursday 12th February)

The expectation within the Premier League Darts tournament is that the two Lukes will make it through to the Play Offs and the other six players are fighting it out for two places.

However, those other six are all amongst the best players on the Tour and you just know that none of them are thinking the same way, while Night 1 saw neither Littler nor Humphries make the Final.

Instead it was Michael van Gerwen who got the better of Gian van Veen as the former looks to bounce back from a poor 2025 Premier League campaign.

With the majority of the players resting ahead of the first night in Antwerp, an opportunity is available to those heading into Night 2 knowing that both Lukes will not be able to pick up points as they open in the Quarter Final.

The bottom half is the one where the four players will all feel they can reach the Final and at least put some quality points on the board even if they come up short of winning, but we are obviously still very early in this tournament which comes to a conclusion at the end of May.

With that being said, that does not mean this is not a big night for all involved as we saw last year how things can spiral out of control if those early points are not placed on the board.

On Night 2, the bottom half does look weaker and that is where Gerwyn Price could make hay after his narrow Quarter Final loss last week.

He has been one of those playing at the two Players Championship events on Monday and Tuesday and the effort in the second of those has continued to show the form that Price is producing.

The Quarter Final is not going to be easy, but the Welshman could build some real momentum into the Final and he is set as the second favourite here.

Last week I also mentioned that Luke Littler has not performed on Night 1 in the previous two editions of the Premier League and he suffered another early exit- he reached the Final in 2024 on Night 2 and won in 2025 and so it is perhaps no surprise he has been set as the player to beat, even when competing in the tougher half fo the draw.

Luke Littler to win & most 180s v Luke Humphries: The Premier League Final was won by Luke Humphries when facing Luke Littler, but it is the World Number 1 who has won the last four matches between these players.

In last year's Premier League, Littler had won five of the eight matches between the players in the table before losing that Final.

He did beat Luke Humphries in a highly competitive Final at the World Masters earlier this month and Luke Littler made a point out of the fact that Humphries continued to fight hard and believe in what he was trying to do even when the match seemed to be slipping away from him.

This has been one of the criticisms of Luke Humphries, who never really got to enjoy his time as World Champion and World Number 1 for as long as he would have imagined with all that happening at the same time as Luke Littler's emergence.

The former World Number 1 has high praise for his young rival, but you have to feel the urgency will be with Luke Littler after the disappointing defeat in the Quarter Final last week.

Even in a losing effort, you would anticipate that Littler's power scoring and maximum hitting would surpass Luke Humphries, as it did in the defeat to Gian van Veen. Both players rested earlier this week rather than travelling to play the opening Players Championship tournaments, which is something that both Lukes have suggested will be a long-term part of the schedule management when those tournaments are played outside of Wigan.

Tiredness and fatigue should not be a factor, as it may have been in the performances on Night 1 just days after the World Master Final. That should mean plenty of big scores, but Littler looks the right player to back having shown his Night 2 recoveries after poor Night 1 performances in the last couple of years of the Premier League.

Michael van Gerwen to win & over 1.5 180s v Josh Rock: 2025 was a difficult personal year for Michael van Gerwen and that had to have an impact on his performances on the oche.

He did win a TV title, but van Gerwen was seen significantly behind the top two players in the World Rankings and he entered the World Darts Championship as a relatively big outsider compared with his previous successes.

That being said, the Dutchman has also been speaking much more positively about 2026 and what can be achieved and he is still very confident that his best level will give any opponent problems.

Winning one of the two Masters events played in the Middle East in January has been followed by a Night 1 win in the Premier League and Michael van Gerwen will be looking to build on that.

Last year he failed to Qualify for the Players Championship, but Michael van Gerwen took in both tournaments earlier in the week and reached the Semi Final on Monday and Quarter Final on Tuesday. The performances were at a very good level and the World Masters aside, he has looked much closer to what we have come to expect from him over recent years.

He can beat Josh Rock, who lost on his Premier League debut to Jonny Clayton and who did play earlier this week.

There is no doubting the talent that Rock possesses, but this is a learning curve for him to be playing with the elite every week and that can be tough both mentally and physically. The Northern Irishman has perhaps not played up to the level that helped his nation win the World Cup back in June and Rock was crushed by Luke Littler at the World Masters.

You do have to wonder if Josh Rock is going to be a little undercooked early in the Premier League with the limited competitive darts played since the World Championship.

He did have a couple of close wins over Michael van Gerwen in 2025, which will help in the confidence department, but the World Number 4 has looked really focused and secure at least two maximums on his way to a win in this Quarter Final.

Jonny Clayton-Stephen Bunting both over 2.5 180s: At the start of the Premier League, these two players could not be split easily by the layers when it came to finding a favourite to finish bottom of the League standings.

The 2025 Premier League could not have gone much worse for Stephen Bunting and he suffered yet another Quarter Final defeat on Night 1 of the 2026 tournament. He has been struggling for consistency for several months now and that was one of the main reasons so many believed that he should not be included in the Premier League this time around.

As much as Bunting insists that he is not worrying about what the critics think, you do know the pressure is going to ramp up if he cannot start putting some strong points on the board very soon.

Jonny Clayton is a former Premier League Champion and has been desperate to find the consistency to force his way back into the elite competition. He had a solid year to earn one of the eight places and Clayton has Qualified for the Play Offs in each of his previous appearances in the Premier League.

He will have been hurt by so many people writing him off, but Clayton did win a match last week before losing to Gian van Veen in the Semi Final and he is in the 'weaker' half of the Night 2 tournament.

Both players were resting ahead of this match and it is Clayton who has been set as a deserved favourite- both are capable of getting things ramped up in the maximum hitting market and a match that should go at least nine Legs can see both rack up three of those.

Whoever can handle some of the pressure the best with the potential for decent points to be secured may be the one that comes out on top with the narrow lean being with the Welshman.

Gerwyn Price to win v Gian van Veen: Five of the eight Premier League players did not take part in the Players Championship tournaments played earlier in the week, but both Gerwyn Price and Gian van Veen did.

They had very different performances.

Gian van Veen was beaten in the Second Round in Players Championship 1 and the opening Round in Players Championship 2 and he will have been disappointed with the numbers. Yes, he was beaten by another impressive effort from Justin Hood, but the loss to Madars Razma was not against an opponent producing huge numbers and the Gian van Veen performances were not what we have come to expect from him.

Perhaps it was down to reaching the Final on Night 1 of the Premier League in his debut appearance at the event.

The World Number 3 was solid in his two wins over Luke Littler and Jonny Clayton, but found Michael van Gerwen too good and Gian van Veen will need Gerwyn Price to have cooled down.

Like his opponent, Gerwyn Price was beaten in the Second Round on Monday, but that was after putting an average of over 103 on the board against Connor Scutt.

Things went much better on Tuesday as Price crushed opponents on his way to the Final and he was beaten by Wessel Nijman, despite having an average of over 107 after all of the best of fifteen Legs were needed.

The Welshman lost in the Quarter Final last week, but will feel he should have beaten Luke Humphries, much as the Ice Man will feel he should have beaten Luke Littler at the World Masters.

There is no doubt that Gerwyn Price is right amongst the very best performers on the Tour right now and he has been for a number of months, even if the big titles have just eluded his grasp.

This is going to be a fun match, but it was a surprise that Price was going to be a slight underdog across the board, although that may not be the case now.

Even then, Gezzy looks the right player to back in this Quarter Final on the form he has been putting together in 2026.

MY PICKS: Luke Littler to Win & Most 180s @ 2.30 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michael van Gerwen to Win & Over 1.5 180s @ 2.15 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Both Jonny Clayton & Stephen Bunting Over 2.5 180s @ 2.30 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Gerwyn Price @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Darts 2026: 6-9, - 0.96 Units (14 Units Staked, - 6.86% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2026 (Thursday 12th February)

The tournaments continue at a pace this week and we are into the Quarter Final Round at the WTA 1000 event being played in Doha.

Some of the players will have already made the short journey across to Dubai for the next 1000 event that begins on Sunday, while the ATP Tour continues with the stops made in Buenos Aires, Dallas and Rotterdam.

Wednesday proved to be an incredibly mixed day for the Tennis Picks, but Thursday is a new day and selections will be added to this thread.

Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Victoria Mboko: After coming through a match in which she had to Break serve to avoid losing, Victoria Mboko may feel she is playing with house money.

Beating Elena Rybakina in a big event is something that Victoria Mboko has already achieved in her young career when coming from behind to earn a Semi Final victory over this opponent in the Montreal Semi Final last year. That was also in a WTA 1000 event, but Victoria Mboko was beaten either side of that win in Washington and Tokyo and she has been second best in all three matches.

The youngster is plenty talented and Victoria Mboko continues to get on the front foot when the first serve lands, which has led to plenty of points won.

However, this is a player who has seen her numbers decline in each of the last three wins in Doha and Mboko has just had one or two issues dealing with the return of serve without having played someone like the Australian Open Champion.

Elena Rybakina also needed three sets to win her match to reach the Quarter Final, but she has played one fewer match in Doha compared with Victoria Mboko and there is a real confidence around this player.

The World Number 3 has kept the pressure on opponents with her very strong serving performances over the last several months. That is going to be important for Elena Rybakina again and she has had a considerable edge in the three previous matches against Victoria Mboko with all taking place on the hard courts.

This is a big spread when you think of some of the inconsistency that Elena Rybakina has put on the board when it comes to the return of serve, but she will have the edge if she sees enough second serves in this match and that can see her find a way to edge past this number set.

Karolina Muchova - 3.5 games v Anna Kalinskaya: A retirement helped Karolina Muchova past another compatriot, but she continues to put together some very solid tennis that has put her on course to just take a leap in the World Rankings and potentially win a big title.

The WTA 1000 events are as big as it gets below the Grand Slam level and Karolina Muchova would end the tournament in Doha back inside the top ten of the World Rankings if she can go on and win the title here.

That is not going to be easy and this Quarter Final could prove to be awkward.

Anna Kalinskaya had to play later than imagined on Wednesday, but she will have taken a lot of confidence from earning a win over Elina Svitolina as she prepares to face another opponent with a winning record against her.

Another couple of wins could see Anna Kalinskaya move back inside the top 20 of the World Rankings and there has been a real confidence around her performances this week. Twelve months ago, Kalinskaya was beaten early in Doha and Dubai, but the Middle East swing has been much more positive in her three wins in 2026.

There is a nice balance to the Anna Kalinskaya game, which makes her dangerous on both sides of the net, but this is another tough match to overcome.

Karolina Muchova has been very good behind the serve and the all court abilities continue to pose a threat towards opponents who have simply not been used to playing someone with this kind of skillset very often.

Both players are going to be leaning on some strong serving to put themselves in a positive position within the match, while Anna Kalinskaya may feel she has the superiority when it comes to the return.

The numbers are actually really competitive, but it is Karolina Muchova who has been able to impose her will on the Anna Kalinskaya in previous matches against one another. That may give her the slight mental edge, while Muchova may be the player who earns a few more easier points over the course of the Quarter Final, which can just see her come through some pressurised moments within sets.

This may ultimately show up on the scoreboard and Karolina Muchova can move into another Semi Final with a cover of the spread set for this battle.

MY PICKS: Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Karolina Muchova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Denis Shapovalov - 2.5 Games @ 1.70 William Hill (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 6-6, - 0.38 Units (12 Units Staked, - 3.17% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2025 (Wednesday 12th February)

One selection was made on Tuesday and Daria Kasatkina was a comfortable winner on the scoreboard, although the match was closer than the scoreline indicated.

There is a lot of tennis scheduled for Wednesday, although the focus is at the WTA tournament being played in Doha.

All eight Third Round matches are going to be played in Doha with the Quarter Finals set for Thursday, Semi Finals on Friday and the tournament coming to a conclusion on Saturday with a big title to be handed out.

Big names will be in action later in the week at the ATP events being played, but they have been given Byes through to the Second Round and will begin their bids for the title from Wednesday onwards.

Ons Jabeur - 4.5 games v Sofia Kenin: Any time Ons Jabeur is going to get to play in the Middle East, there is going to be a lot of support being lent to her from the stands.

That has been the case in her two wins in Doha having reached the Quarter Final in Abu Dhabi last week and the fans have been celebrating the Ons Jabeur performances against Mccartney Kessler and Qinwen Zheng. After a disappointing 2024 on the hard courts, Ons Jabeur looks to be playing at a much higher level right now and there is a confidence about her tennis which makes her a genuine contender to win the title.

She is in the bottom half of the draw, which looks the tougher side, but Ons Jabeur will be focusing on booking her spot in the Quarter Final.

The key is to continue serving as well as she has been on the hard courts as that allows Jabeur to play some aggressive tennis on the return. This has led to six breaks of serve in both matches won this week in Doha and Ons Jabeur is the correct favourite for this Third Round match.

It is Sofia Kenin who will be standing on the other side of the net after a tough win over Alycia Parks, but the former Australian Open Champion is still struggling to find the consistency she would be expecting from herself.

The American comes into the tournament as the World Number 73, but at 26 years old Sofia Kenin may yet feel some of the tennis that took her to World Number 4 is still something she can produce.

Sofia Kenin does have a decent serve and one that can be effective on the hard courts, but the problem for her has been the return. Winning just 40% of return points played on the surface makes it challenging to string wins together and someone like Ons Jabeur is going to build the pressure if bringing anything near her best tennis onto the court.

A 6-2 head to head advantage will give Sofia Kenin some confidence, especially as she beat Ons Jabeur on a clay court just last year.

The head to head on the hard courts is also 3-1 in favour of Sofia Kenin, but the three match winning run was snapped in their most recent meeting on the surface, albeit back in March 2021. Back then it was Ons Jabeur who was significantly lower in the World Rankings compared with Sofia Kenin, but things feel different right now and the Tunisian can come through with a big win and cover on her way through to the last eight.

Amanda Anisimova v Leylah Fernandez: Two young players that still have loads of potential to fulfil meet in a big Third Round match in Doha and the layers are finding it very difficult to split Amanda Anisimova and Leylah Fernandez.

It is Leylah Fernandez who enters the tournament in Doha as the higher Ranked player, and she is the only one of the two players who have cracked the top 20.

However, that burst was largely built on reaching the US Open Final and it has been tough for Leylah Fernandez to reach that level week to week.

Last week she was beaten in Abu Dhabi in the Quarter Final and Leylah Fernandez has had steady hard court numbers over the last twelve months.

That steadiness has not quite been high enough to reach the business end of tournaments on a regular basis and Amanda Anisimova does look like a player with a higher ceiling.

Injury and issues off the court have really slowed Amanda Anisimova's rise, but she has looked much more confident and happy and that has seen her World Ranking moving back up towards her career high mark. Back to back wins over Victoria Azarenka and Paula Badosa here in Doha have to give the 23 year old real belief in her tennis.

Both previous matches between these players have ended with wins for Leylah Fernandez, but they have been competitive matches and this feels like a chance for Amanda Anisimova to turn things around.

On a hard court, Amanda Anisimova has looked the player with the slightly stronger second serve and return numbers and that could make the difference in this Third Round match. It would not be a surprise if this match needs a third set to decide the winner, but the slight edge may be with Amanda Anisimova and she can come through with an important victory.

MY PICKS: Ons Jabeur - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Amanda Anisimova @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Weekly Update: 1-0, + 0.75 Units (1 Unit Staked, + 75% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2024 (Monday 12th February)

The opening WTA 1000 event begun in Doha on Sunday and it was a surprisingly rain interrupted day, although the rest of the week looks much better in terms of the weather forecast.

The First Round will be completed by Monday evening at the tournament, while the ATP events in Rotterdam, Buenos Aires and Delray Beach make quieter starts to their respective events.

We should have some big names out on the courts over the next few days, but the Tennis Picks need to step up after a poor Saturday ended the last week on a sour note.

It was obviously a much tighter week, but a positive is needed to get things going in 2024.

Any selections from Buenos Aires or Delray Beach will be added to this thread from the matches scheduled for Monday.

Emma Raducanu - 3.5 games v Anhelina Kalinina: The return to the Tour has had some ups and downs and that has to be expected for fans of Emma Raducanu.

A couple of solid wins will give her confidence though and she may be facing a good opponent in the First Round in Doha, even if Anhelina Kalinina has a win over the British player in the only previous meeting on the Tour.

2024 has started really poorly for Kalinina and four losses in five matches means she is going to be playing with a lack of confidence. In a game of fine margins, that can be the key and Kalinina is going to have to dig deep against someone like Emma Raducanu, even in her current position as a returning player to the Tour.

She was well beaten by Ons Jabeur last week in Abu Dhabi, but Emma Raducanu played out a close first set before falling away.

That will have felt disappointing, but Raducanu has been playing the stronger tennis of the two in this First Round match in Doha and that should show up in the scoreline.

Where Emma Raducanu has been serving well enough, Anhelina Kalinina has struggled this season and it is hard to just turn it on. Her return play has not been nearly as effective and the edge has to be with the British player to come through this opening Round match.

MY PICKS: Emma Raducanu - 3.5 Games @ 1.70 Coral (2 Units)

Super Bowl LVII Pick 2023- Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (February 12th)

I actually can't quite believe the NFL season is coming to an end, but here we are in mid-February with just the Super Bowl to be played.

My pick from the big game can be read below in what has been another up and down season.

Back in September I did have both of these teams amongst my leading contenders to win the Super Bowl, although the Eagles have perhaps been a much bigger surprise for most. However, they look the team to beat now and I think the narrow favourite for the Super Bowl are likely going to find a way to come out on top on Sunday too.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick: It has felt this might be the Super Bowl clash the fans would be most excited about for a while and the top two Seeds in both the AFC and NFC have both made it through to the Super Bowl LVII.

The Philadelphia Eagles (16-3) have won both of their PlayOff games without too much fuss, although they did earn a Championship Game win over a San Francisco team that did not have a Quarter Back who could throw the ball. There has been plenty of saltiness from the 49ers since the win, although I did think the Eagles would have won anyway, but this team have not been tested nearly as much as the Kansas City Chiefs (16-3).

Both of the Chiefs wins have come by 7 points or fewer against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals and there were plenty of controversy about the win over the Bengals. Some of the officiating was questionable to say the least, but the Chiefs did earn their place in the Super Bowl and they are a much experienced team when it comes to dealing with playing in the big game in February.

Head Coach Andy Reid is facing his former team, one that he guided to the Super Bowl before falling narrowly short against the New England Patriots. He has since won the Super Bowl with the Kansas City Chiefs, but they are 1-1 in the Super Bowl under Andy Reid and the AFC have lost the last two Bowls.

The big question for the Kansas City Chiefs is the health of Patrick Mahomes- the reality is the Chiefs can only really go as far as their Quarter Back will take them and he has had two weeks to get over the ankle injury suffered against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round. Personally I am not sure Mahomes can really hope to be at full health, but he is one of a couple of positions on both sides of the ball where the Kansas City Chiefs may feel they have the edge over the Philadelphia Eagles.

However, we saw how the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were able to crush the Patrick Mahomes chances two years ago and the Philadelphia Eagles will feel they can slow down this passing game. It has not been as explosive as it was when Tyreek Hill was playing for the Chiefs, while the Philadelphia Eagles Secondary is amongst the best in the NFL and have played at a high level all season.

Stopping Travis Kelce is unlikely, but the Eagles will feel they match up really well with the Wide Receivers that Kansas City will trot out onto the field. There is also the pass rush pressure that the Eagles can generate without having to send the house after the Quarter Back and I do think that will make life tough for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City passing game that has shown an ability to break open the deep threat for much of the season.

As long as he is close to being at full health, Mahomes Magic is likely to be seen at times and you have to have a healthy respect for this Quarter Back and all he has achieved since entering the NFL. And as long as the Coaching staff respect the game, the Chiefs should be looking to establish the run and try and open passing lanes by pounding the rock.

It is not something that Andy Reid enjoys, but the Eagles have continued to show a weakness to the run even when signing veterans to try and plug the Defensive Line holes. Patrick Mahomes is capable of moving the ball with his legs too and I do think the Chiefs have to try and keep the Eagles as honest as possible while this game is close and competitive.

Anything else and it is the Eagles pass rush that may get on top and help the strong Secondary make some big plays for Philadelphia as they look for a second Super Bowl title in six years.

This time the Philadelphia Eagles will be led not by a Quarter Back that has ended the season in hot form, but one that has been a season-long success. Jalen Hurts might not have won the MVP, but that might not be a bad thing considering the last nine winners have all lost when making the Super Bowl (by the way, Patrick Mahomes won this year).

The Quarter Back has proven to be an integral part of the Philadelphia Eagles Offensive unit and the way they want to operate- everyone knows the Eagles want to establish the run and that opens thing up for their big time Receivers, but they are much harder to contain with the threat that Jalen Hurts presents in the RPO approach.

As improved as the Kansas City Defensive unit have been, they have also remained a unit that is weak at controlling the run and this is where I think the Philadelphia Eagles Offensive Line could have a big edge. If the Eagles pound the ball as we know they can, extended drives to wear out the Kansas City Defense will come with the added bonus of keeping Patrick Mahomes and the Offense sitting and cooling down on the sidelines.

I think that is the way the game is going to shake out on this side of the ball, while Jalen Hurts is operating behind a strong Offensive Line that has given him plenty of protection and time when he does want to throw to the likes of AJ Brown. Even a tough Chiefs pass rush may not be able to rattle the Quarter Back and especially not if the Eagles are moving the ball effectively on the ground and just getting those pass rushers wondering when to crash into the line.

Lane Johnson has not been a full participant this week in practice, but he has had two more weeks to deal with an injury suffered towards the end of the regular season and is pivotal to the Eagles chances of success.

I do like Philadelphia to edge this game and it should be a good one.

They just look to have more players that can make an impact across the board on both sides of the ball and Patrick Mahomes may not be able to produce enough magic to drag the Chiefs over the line, at least not with more eyebrow raising calls from the officials as we saw in the AFC Championship Game.

I expect Kansas City to take plenty of motivation from the fact they are the underdog, but they are just 1-1 against the spread in that position this season. At the same time the Philadelphia Eagles are 7-4 against the spread when favoured by less than a Touchdown and I do think they have been the best team in the NFL this season.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes is never easy, but this looks like being a second defeat in the Super Bowl for the Quarter Back as Philadelphia's Defensive unit make a late play to close the Kansas City rally.

MY PICK: Philadelphia Eagles - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2021 (February 12th)

The Second Round did not go as planned for the Tennis Picks, but I have to be a little disappointed with the mix of poor luck and poor judgement I displayed across the last two days.

There is plenty of time to turn the tournament back around and that begins with the start of the Third Round, while I am pretty happy to see the majority of the Outright Picks making it through to this stage of the tournament.

Again, there is a long way to go, but I am hoping those selected can earn their spots in the business end of the tournament beginning on Day 5.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Adrian Mannarino: The Australian Open is going to begin to put together the list for those players who will be making it through to the second week of the first Grand Slam of the season. In the first week it is all about managing your way through the draw without expending too much energy and to that point Alexander Zverev has been successful with two very strong wins in the books after dropping the opening set of the tournament.

His performances since that dropped set have been strong and Alexander Zverev has to be playing with some confidence in decent conditions for a player with the kind of serve he has. Backing that up has not been an issue and Alexander Zverev has shown he has some room for improvement when it comes to the return of serve which would make him a threat to win a maiden Grand Slam having reached the Final of the US Open in September.

The German will be the first to admit he will need to take another step upwards in his level of performance if he is going to beat Adrian Mannarino- the latter has won both matches this week in dominant fashion and Adrian Mannarino is a solid hard courter which makes him a threat in this match.

However in saying all that, Adrian Mannarino did not play that well in two events prior to the Australian Open and beating players outside of the top 40 in the World Rankings is solid form, but still needing more to take on a top tenner who is amongst the favourites to win the Australian Open.

The head to head doesn't make good reading for Adrian Mannarino either having lost all five previous matches against Alexander Zverev including a one-sided defeat at the US Open after taking the first set on the tie-breaker. They did meet two more times after the US Open in 2020 and both times Mannarino was able to take a set, but it does have to be said that Alexander Zverev has largely controlled the tempo of matches between the pair and in a best of five setting that should be the case the longer it goes.

In the four previous hard court matches, Alexander Zverev has held 87% of his service games played compared with Adrian Mannarino's 71% mark and the former has already created more break points in all of those matches. When they met at the US Open last September, Alexander Zverev was just a little more clinical when the chances came his way and on the faster courts that have been put in place in Melbourne I do think the top tenner will have too much for Mannarino.

It won't be a rollover for sure, but Alexander Zverev has looked good in the tournament so far and can win and cover in this Third Round match.

Milos Raonic - 5.5 games v Marton Fucsovics: Spending a long time on the courts in the early Rounds of any Grand Slam event is a difficult position to be in, but Marton Fucsovics has shown tremendous resolve to win a couple of five setters already in Melbourne. In the Second Round the Hungarian was able to hold off the Stan Wawrinka rally when beating the former Champion, although it does mean that Marton Fucsovics has already spent over eight hours on court to win two matches.

His opponent in the Third Round has only needed half that time to win his two matches and Milos Raonic's serve is proving to be a devastating weapon on the Melbourne hard courts. The expectation is that this match will provide a more difficult test for the Canadian, but Milos Raonic has to be very happy with his level and he can keep Fucsovics under immense pressure if he is serving as well as he has been this week.

Physical exertions will feel much worse if Marton Fucsovics is not able to get into the Milos Raonic service games and that can also build the mental pressure when it comes to holding your own serve.

No one will confuse Raonic with one of the top returners on the Tour, but he has created sixteen break points in both matches played this week and is winning over 40% of return points played. As impressive as the Marton Fucsovics run has been, he has been holding less than 80% of the service games played in the Australian Open and his return game is going to be tested by Milos Raonic who has held 98% of service games played so far in 2021.

The two previous matches between these two players have come on the grass courts and Milos Raonic has won both against Marton Fucsovics. In those matches he has won 40% of the return points played, but also won 72% of the points played on his own serve and you do have to think he is playing well enough here in Australia to get the better of Fucsovics again.

This is a big spread, but at some point you would not be completely surprised if some physical fatigue sees Marton Fucsovics break down against the big hitting of Milos Raonic. I hate backing a limited returner like Raonic to earn the break points to cover this mark, but the Marton Fucsovics serve may offer up more chances and I think the higher Ranked player is able to work his way through to what is likely to be a big Fourth Round match against the World Number 1.

Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 sets v Felix Auger-Aliassime: Playing in a Grand Slam is tough enough, but playing against a compatriot can be really tricky and that is what both Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime are facing in the Third Round. While you have to learn on the job when facing opponents you don't know so well, playing against a compatriot means there are no secrets and both of these young Canadians are going to be well aware of how dangerous the other can be.

There is so much potential behind both Denis Shapovalov and Felix Auger-Aliassime and it would be a surprise if both are not Grand Slam Champions as they develop on the Tour. At this moment in time you would feel that both are not quite ready, but the confidence will have been built off the back of the strong wins already produced in Melbourne.

To that extent you have to feel that Felix Auger-Aliassime is the more confident of the two players having reached the Final of a warm up event last week and his two wins this week have been very, very comfortable. However, it would be foolhardy to not mention the fact that both have come against players Ranked outside the top 100 and this is a huge step up in level.

Even the wins put together last week were not against the top players on the Tour and Auger-Aliassime did not beat anyone from inside the top 50 of the World Rankings. His sole match against one of those opponents saw him dismantled by Daniel Evans and this young Canadian is only 15-23 in hard court matches against top 50 Ranked players in his career.

Last season in particular saw Felix Auger-Aliassime struggle against the top 50 players he met on the hard courts and his numbers were not good enough. Holding 72% of service games and only breaking in 14% of return games is an issue and certainly will give Denis Shapovalov some confidence.

An easy Second Round win made up for the battle Shapovalov had to negotiate in the First Round against Jannik Sinner, but that win does look a good one even if the lefty was a little fortunate on the day having given up double the amount of break points than he earned.

Denis Shapovalov does need to improve his return game if he is going to take the next step in his development, but he does look further along the development road than his compatriot. His numbers against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts underline that point with a superior hold and break percentage, while the head to head also favours Shapovalov.

These two players have met four times on the pro Tour and it is Denis Shapovalov who leads 3-1, while that become a 3-0 record when only considering their hard court matches. Two of those matches have been at the US Open and the last saw Denis Shapovalov beat Felix Auger-Aliassime in straight sets, although that came in 2019 and the latter has developed since then.

It should be a much more competitive match, but I do think Shapovalov is the deserving favourite and I think he is still slightly superior than the improving Felix Auger-Aliassime and will come through this match in three or four sets.

Dominic Thiem-Nick Kyrgios over 36.5 games: Anyone who doesn't know the kind of impact sports fans can have on matches in any sporting event inside the Stadiums just needs to watch the Second Round match between Nick Krygios and Ugo Humbert. In a sanitised and quiet environment it is hard to imagine Kyrgios would have found the motivation to turn the match around from match point down and I think the Australian even suggested as much in his post-match presser.

He has made enough noise about loving playing on the John Cain Arena that Nick Kyrgios has been placed back on the court for the Night Session.

The atmosphere is unlikely to be any less vocal than it was in the Second Round and Nick Kyrgios will know he needs all the support he can get as he bids to beat one of the top players in the world. Dominic Thiem may not be the strongest on the hard courts, but runs to the Australian Open Final and following that up by winning the US Open means he is a big favourite to beat the home player.

You can't really argue against that with Dominic Thiem having played plenty of tennis to keep his rhythm going and being involved in big matches while Kyrgios decided he would rather not travel during a global pandemic. You can't blame the Australian, but it does mean that it will be a challenge to try and reach the level that his opponent will be able to rely on in this tough Third Round match.

The run through to the Third Round has been a lot more simple for Dominic Thiem than it has been for Nick Kyrgios and the former has the kind of serve that will make it difficult for a limited returner like the Australian to expect to have a lot of success. However Kyrgios is someone who is inspired to face some of the better players on the Tour and he does have a 16-19 record against top 10 players when meeting them on the hard courts.

That is impressive, but Nick Kyrgios has lost all seven in that spot when those matches have come in Grand Slam matches and that is 0-4 at the Australian Open. It is the return which has let Nick Kyrgios down, but he has held 86% of the service games played against those top tenners here and the last three defeats have all come in matches where Kyrgios has taken at least one set.

Even though he is a US Open Champion, I do have to say that Dominic Thiem doesn't have the best returning numbers on the hard courts and so it is entirely possible that Nick Kyrgios will be inspired enough to take a set off of him here. Doing more than would be a surprise though and I think Dominic Thiem will be able to handle the crowd even when it does become a little difficult during this match.

Both players will be looking to get the serve going and it could see the match cover the total games line in what I expect to be at least a four set match. Tie-breakers will likely be in play as long as Nick Kyrgios has recovered from his Second Round exploits and can stay mentally checked in when things are hard for a player that has played little competitive tennis over the last several months.

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Taylor Fritz: Much is being made of the speed of the courts at Melbourne Park in 2021 and Novak Djokovic is even making the point that he needs to make some adjustments having become accustomed to a certain speed when winning this Grand Slam eight times. Even with the chances, Djokovic has looked pretty good in the first two Rounds, although he will be the first to admit that he needs to be a little more clinical when it comes to the break points being played to just ease the nature of matches.

He did need over three hours on the court to see off Frances Tiafoe, but the main problem for Novak Djokovic that day was allowing his young American opponent to hang around. The numbers were largely skewed in favour of the World Number 1, but he couldn't quite pull away from Tiafoe until the end of the match, while dropping a set won't be a massive concern.

Novak Djokovic goes up against another young American in the Third Round when he gets set to face Taylor Fritz in the night session at the Australian Open. The latter has come through a gruelling Second Round match against compatriot Reilly Opelka and Taylor Fritz has spent just under eight hours on the court already which is tough with the limited preparation for the first Grand Slam of the season in mind.

A lot of people have high hopes for Fritz and he is experienced enough to have faced the likes of Roger Federer and Dominic Thiem in Grand Slam events, while also facing Rafael Nadal in another hard court tournament. This isn't the first time he will face Djokovic, but it is the first time these two will be meeting on this surface as the two previous matches have been won by the World Number 1 on the clay courts.

Much will depend on how much recovery Taylor Fritz has been able to put into his legs after the wins in the first two matches at Melbourne Park. He will need to serve well against arguably one of the best returners of all time and anything less will mean pressure on Taylor Fritz considering his own returning struggles when facing the very best players on this surface.

He may be encouraged by seeing the way Novak Djokovic dropped serve against another limited returner in Frances Tiafoe, but the Serb only faced three break points in the entire match and happened to drop serve twice. You have to think the two matches on the Rod Laver Arena will give Novak Djokovic a better way to deal with the conditions now and his first match came in the night session when he was much more dominant than the day match against Tiafoe.

Taylor Fritz has given up at least ten break points in both matches played so far in the tournament, and it has to be a worry that Reilly Opelka was able to create thirteen break opportunities. The latter got tight when the match was ready to be won, but Novak Djokovic is not expected to do that and I think he can cover this big mark as he wears down Fritz and puts the breaks of serve together.

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 games v Fiona Ferro: Winning a Grand Slam is a fantastic achievement for any player and Iga Swiatek has long looked like a player that would be capable of winning plenty of the majors in the years ahead. Putting the French Open on the CV is a great start for the 19 year old and this is a player that looks like she has the capability to be a huge success on any surface.

In the last couple of years Iga Swiatek has produced some strong numbers on the hard courts, although she looks like she is still room to develop further. The comfortable wins in the last two Rounds at the Australian Open shows this is a player who is producing strong, confident tennis and the serve has set up Swiatek to go on the offensive when it comes to return numbers.

The length of the run that Iga Swiatek can have in this tournament will be dependent on the serve but she has shown she can produce this kind of level for long enough to put plenty of wins on the board on the hard courts. It certainly looks like being capable of getting the better of Fiona Ferro in this Third Round match, although the Frenchwoman is coming in off an upset in the Second Round against Elena Rybakina.

It was a solid win, but Ferro was perhaps a little fortunate to get the better of Rybakina and this is a completely different kind of challenge. Where the Russian will look to hit through with power and dictate the play, Iga Swiatek is a capable defender, a strong mover and someone who will use variations where she can to swing the points back in her favour.

So far in her career, it has looked like Fiona Ferro is going to be a better clay court player than a hard court one and so you do have to wonder if she will appreciate the court speed as much as someone with an all-court ability like her Polish opponent.

Her two wins in this tournament have to be respected, but I do think Iga Swiatek is going to be the stronger returner of the two players. She also looks like she holds a more consistent serve and it end up seeing her through to the Fourth Round with a good looking win in this one.

MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Milos Raonic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Dominic Thiem-Nick Kyrgios Over 35.5 Total Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Grigor Dimitrov @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 20-23, - 11.28 Units (86 Units Staked, - 13.12% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2020 (February 12th)

It could have been a fabulous first two days for the Tennis Picks this week, but I am happy enough taking two good days instead.

With five tournaments being played it is no surprise that there are as many tennis matches being scheduled on Tuesday and Wednesday as we have seen so far this week. That will continue up until the weekend with the Second Round and Quarter Final matches to be played before Saturday and I am hoping to have a stronger day on Wednesday to recover from the slightly inconsistent Tuesday.

There were no selections from the late matches to be played on Tuesday so the week update can be placed in this thread. A few of the Second Round match markets have yet to be properly put together so there my be additional Picks placed in this thread on Wednesday, but you will see them below.

As we reach the middle of the week, my selections can be seen below.


David Goffin - 4.5 games v Robin Haase: Injury and loss of form has seen Robin Haase hurtle down the World Rankings and his Number 167 means he was not able to compete at the Australian Open last month. He was not able to earn a main draw spot with that Ranking slipping well out of the top 100 and the Dutchman decided he would not play in Melbourne, but instead try and boost his Ranking by taking in lower level tournaments.

Robin Haase did reach the Final of a Challenger event prior to the Australian Open beginning, but could not complete the match in a losing effort. Subsequently he was beaten in the Pune Qualifiers last week and Haase might just be grateful for his spot in the main draw of this ATP 500 event.

The Dutchman has been given a Wild Card from one of the few tournaments held in his home country, but the field is a tough one and it is no surprise that Robin Haase has been given a difficult opener against David Goffin. The latter also had something of a down season in 2019 compared with other years, but Goffin reached the Semi Final in Montpellier last week and he already holds a win over Rafael Nadal on the hard courts in 2020.

There is some real room for improvement in the service games David Goffin has been producing, but his return game has been in good shape and helped him to a 7-3 start. His serve could benefit from going up against an average returner like Robin Haase who has broken in just 18% of the return games played in 2020 despite playing at a lower level than the main ATP Tour.

Robin Haase will look for his serve to get him out of a jam and at least put the pressure on David Goffin in this one, but he is just 1-6 against the Belgian and it has been a difficult match up for him. David Goffin has won all four previous matches between them on the hard courts and he has managed to break serve in 34% of return games played compared with Robin Haase's 18% number.

It was a long week for David Goffin in Montpellier, but putting wins together can build confidence of players. He is not someone that you can comfortably back to cover a line like the one in front of him, but Goffin has matched up well with Robin Haase and he should be the more confident player if things don't go smoothly which can see him offer more fight than the home player.

Even the 6-11 record Robin Haase has in Rotterdam is not inspiring a lot of confidence in him here. That record slips to 3-10 when playing top 100 Ranked players in Rotterdam and I will look for David Goffin to try and get a second straight week off to a good, strong start.


Gael Monfils - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: For the sixteenth season in a row Gael Monfils reached the Final of an ATP tournament and he managed to win the title in Montpellier for the third time in his career. He will now be defending his Ranking points in Rotterdam where he won the title in 2019 having reached the Semi Final the week before in Sofia so I do think motivation won't be a big problem for the Frenchman who has been given an extra day to prepare for this First Round match.

He is a strong favourite to beat Joao Sousa who is now down at Number 68 in the World Rankings and at 30 years old it does feel like the Portuguese player is on the slide in his career.

The start to 2020 has been very difficult for Sousa who has lost all three matches played and much of the problem has been the struggles behind serve. It has put the pressure on Sousa when it comes to fighting back from behind and the last thirteen months it has been a struggle for him on the return when it comes to hard court matches.

In those thirteen months Joao Sousa is holding in 80% of the service games played on the hard courts, but he has broken in just 13% return games. Those numbers have been worse in the only three matches played this season and Joao Sousa has struggled in his previous four matches against Gael Monfils having broken in just 14% of return games played while allowing the Frenchman to find breaks in 34% of the return games he has played.

Gael Monfils has been playing some inspired tennis to open the 2020 season culminating in the title win last week. His serve has been a huge weapon and I think that can set him up for a decent win in the First Round, especially as Monfils should have a few chances to get into the Sousa service games and find break point opportunities coming his way.

There is some pressure on Monfils to try and have a strong run here to prevent dropping some significant Ranking points, but he should be able to get off to a good start. I will look for Gael Monfils to find enough breaks of serve to cover this big looking line and get his tournament moving.


Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Oceane Dodin: A knee injury cut short Johanna Konta's 2019 season after the US Open and she has opened 2020 with two defeats in tournaments played. She returns for the first time on the Singles court since losing at the Australian Open in the First Round, but a Doubles win suggests Johanna Konta might be ready to compete a little more heartily now.

She is going to benefit from facing a Qualifier in the Second Round at the WTA event in St Petersburg, although it does mean Oceane Dodin is a little more battle hardened. The Frenchwoman reached her career best World Ranking of Number 49 back in 2017, but the last three years have been difficult for Oceane Dodin who is well out of the top 100 at the moment.

A couple of top 100 wins in the tournament here will have given Dodin a boost, and she did have a strong 29-10 record on the hard courts in 2019. However it has to be noted that the majority of those matches were played below the main WTA level and it has been difficult for her to find the consistency needed to compete amongst the top players.

Oceane Dodin has some elements to her game which makes her dangerous- the first serve can be a big weapon when she is feeling her game and it has been a key to her successes so far this week. Freeing up her arm on the return, Dodin has played very well and it is going to need a good effort from Johanna Konta to overcome this opponent.

In the last couple of seasons Johanna Konta has been a very solid hard court player and her serve is also a very important part of her game. We have yet to see that working through the first couple of matches played in 2020 as Konta is recovering match sharpness, but she is facing a relatively weak returner in Oceane Dodin and that should give the British player a real chance to feel her way into the match.

Johanna Konta is not exactly a great returner herself, but she does enough on that side of her game and she is stronger than Oceane Dodin. It might be the player that can dominate the opponent's second serve that can come out on top in this Second Round match and I do think Johanna Konta's win in the Doubles draw will help her mentally.

Her two losses have come against players significantly more consistent than Oceane Dodin has been and the latter is just 2-10 on the hard courts when playing an opponent who is Ranked in the top 50. This match will be closer because of the Johanna Konta lack of tennis over the last several months, but I think the British player can secure a first win of 2020 and she can cover this line on the way to a place in the Quarter Final.


Elena Rybakina - 4.5 games v Fiona Ferro: A Lucky Loser spot was given to Fiona Ferro and she has taken full advantage by upsetting Caroline Garcia in the First Round. The challenge gets a lot tougher in the Second Round when Ferro faces Elena Rybakina and she has to make sure she is in a good place both emotionally and physically to compete against the home player.

Fiona Ferro is up to Number 58 in the World Rankings which is something of a surprise when you see that she has a losing record on the hard courts in main WTA tournaments. The Frenchwoman has better numbers on the serve from her small sample of matches in 2020 compared with the last couple of years, but Ferro won't have played too many players in the kind of form Elena Rybakina has been in.

The 20 year old Russian is at her career best Ranking mark and she has opened 2020 with a 12-2 record and both losses to Ekaterina Alexandrova and Ashleigh Barty are against solid opponents. Elena Rybakina has already reached two Finals on the hard courts in 2020 and she has a title already under her belt with signs that she is going to continue her improvement and crack through the top 20 in the World Rankings sooner rather than later.

Her serve has been very important to her successes and it means Rybakina is not being asked to dominate on return to win matches. The pressure being put on her getting through her service games is helping to crack opponents and I do think that could be a key to the outcome of this match.

I do think Fiona Ferro will test Rybakina with her own game looking in decent nick to open 2020 and having some confidence from her win over Carolina Garcia. However I think eventually it is going to be Rybakina who breaks through and she can get on top of a big number here.

Both players will believe they can serve out of trouble, but it is Elena Rybakina who looks to have the stronger shot and that can help her come through with a good win.

MY PICKS: David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ajla Tomljanovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Steve Johnson - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jozef Kovalik - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-4, + 6.08 Units (24 Units Staked, + 25.33% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (February 12-14)

The Champions League is back this week as the first half of the Last 16 First Legs are played on Tuesday and Wednesday before the second half of those ties commence next Tuesday.

The Europa League has an extra Knock Out Round to negotiate than the Champions League so the entire Last 32 ties will be completed over the next ten days before the draw for the Last 16 is made and those ties are set to go in early March. That will be the same time as the Champions League Last 16 Second Legs are played.


With a number of the big name teams all getting through to the Last 16 of the Champions League it does mean we have been rewarded with some mouth-watering ties. The neutrals are going to really be in a position to enjoy those the most, but for fans of the clubs involved it can be an exciting and tense time.

As a Manchester United fan I certainly feel like the Last 16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain is the pick of the Round, especially with the changes that have happened at Old Trafford since the day the draw was put together. Jose Mourinho was still in charge of Manchester United that Monday morning after the Liverpool defeat, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took over a day later and Manchester United have responded with a fantastic run and are now narrow underdogs against PSG.

The French Champions are missing Neymar and Edinson Cavani for the First Leg which will only encourage United fans even more, but my gut feeling is that Paris are going to be a little too good over two Legs. I don't think they will have it easy though and if United can take a two goal lead to the French capital I may change my mind, but my feeling is that we are going to see two high-scoring games and Paris Saint-Germain may still be slightly stronger.

There is pressure on them to perform though considering the open secret of the owners prioritising the Champions League and a third straight Last 16 exit would be a huge blow for the club. Manchester United seem to have less to lose and that may be a factor that helps them earn the upset and book a spot in the Quarter Final of the Champions League for the first time since David Moyes was manager of the club.

Two of the other English clubs involved in the Second Round are also involved in good looking ties on paper- Tottenham Hotspur are battling through injuries as they host Borussia Dortmund in the First Leg, while Liverpool take on defending German Champions Bayern Munich.

I really believe both clubs have a very good chance of progressing, but they have to have leads to take to Germany next month if they are going to do that. My feeling is that the Premier League clubs will just have a little too much for the Bundesliga ones over two Legs, although I am sure some Liverpool fans won't begrudge going out of the competition if it enhances their chances of winning the Premier League.

Manchester City received the easiest of the Second Round ties, but they were the only English Group Winners so they deserve the reward of facing Schalke who are struggling in the Bundesliga. A sweep of the German top flight by English teams is a genuine possibility in the Second Round which would not be welcomed by the Bundesliga.


Real Madrid and Barcelona should be comfortable in making it through to yet another Champions League Quarter Final when they meet Ajax and Lyon respectively. Both of the underdogs impressed in the Group Stage, but things tend to be ramped up at this stage of the Champions League and the two Spanish clubs are amongst the favourites to win the top prize again. Those two teams have won the last five Champions League titles since Bayern Munich in 2013 and good luck if you're opposing them to continue that trend.


No disrespect to Roma and Porto, but the winner of that Second Round tie is going to be the team that the other seven who make it through to the Last Eight will be hoping to draw in the next Round. The edge has to be given to Roma after their Semi Final run last season, even if the team is not as strong this time around, and it would be a real surprise if either of these teams would make it beyond the Quarter Final.

Finally the Italian Champions Juventus look to take the next step in the Champions League having finished Runners Up in two of the last four seasons. Cristiano Ronaldo scored a breathtaking goal against Manchester United in the Group Stage, but the big investment was made in the striker to perform now and Juventus are hoping he can be the differential having lost some tight matches in recent years.

They meet Atletico Madrid in the Second Round in what looks a tactically fascinating match, although perhaps not one for those who like seeing high-scoring games of football. Atletico Madrid are another club who have come very, very close to winning the Champions League in recent years and they have the confidence of winning the Europa League last season behind them, but I can't help feel that Diego Simeone's window to win the top European competition has just shut a little bit.

Atletico Madrid should be highly motivated to reach the Final which is being played in their magnificent new Stadium, but I am leaning towards Juventus making it through this difficult tie especially with home advantage in the Second Leg.


The Europa League is also back this week as I have mentioned and that means the British interest is with Arsenal, Chelsea and Celtic.

After recent performances in the Premier League, both London clubs might just be taking a second look at the Europa League as the way to get back into the Champions League. It is far too early to think Arsenal or Chelsea prioritise the Europa League over the Premier League, but it is important for both teams to make it through to the Last 16 and keep two paths into the top European competition open going into March.

They face BATE Borisov and Malmo respectively and I won't be writing anything controversial by suggesting Arsenal and Chelsea are huge favourites to make it through those ties. The situation is clearer for Arsenal who face BATE Borisov twice over an eight day period without any fixtures in between, but Chelsea have to play Malmo around the Monday night FA Cup Fifth Round tie against Manchester United so Maurizio Sarri has to find the right blend in those games while also dealing with the fallout from the 6-0 hammering at the hands of Manchester City.

Brendan Rodgers will be happy to take his Celtic team into European competition after Christmas which has long been the target for him. They failed to make it into the Champions League Group Stage for the first time under the former Liverpool manager and Celtic rode their luck to edge out Leipzig in the Europa League Group. Now they face a tough test from the Primera Division in Spain as they meet Valencia who only just finished behind Manchester United in the Champions League Group Stage back in December.

Most have Valencia down as a pretty big favourite to progress, but a good result in the First Leg could give Celtic a chance against a goal-shy opponent. It's still a long shot but Celtic have nothing to lose in a tie where they are a heavy underdog and the First Leg at Celtic Park is going to produce a top atmosphere like many of their European home nights tend to do.


Below you can read my thoughts and selections as to how I believe the European ties being played this week are going to go. The big one is on Tuesday night at Old Trafford, but the rest of the week has some good looking action too before we move into the FA Cup Fifth Round ties being played over the upcoming weekend.


Manchester United v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: When the draw for the Last 16 of the Champions League was made in mid-December the initial reaction from the oddsmakers were that Paris Saint-Germain were going to be strong favourites to see off Manchester United.

At that time Manchester United had just been hammered 3-1 at Liverpool and Jose Mourinho was still in charge, but the last two months have seen things change drastically.

Now the players are performing with confidence and 10 wins from 11 games under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer means they come into this tie with a lot of belief they can see off one of the Champions League favourites. Things have also changed for Paris Saint-Germain, but those changes have been far less positive with news that two of the vaunted front three could miss the First Leg.

Neymar is almost certainly out of both Legs, but Edinson Cavani suffered a knock which makes him a doubt for the game at Old Trafford too.

Before United fans get too carried away I do think Paris Saint-Germain still have plenty of quality going forward and Manchester United have looked far from secure defensively. However the positive attitude of Solskjaer has rubbed off on the players and their confidence getting forward should give Manchester United plenty of chances to try and expose a Paris Saint-Germain defence which has had problems in the Champions League in recent years.

Since the start of the 2016/17 season, Paris Saint-Germain have conceded at least two goals at Arsenal, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Liverpool in the Champions League. The last four clubs all scored at least three home goals against Paris Saint-Germain and I do think Manchester United are playing well enough and have enough pace in the final third to at least get at their visitors.

Keeping the backdoor shut won't be easy even though PSG are without Neymar and possibly without Cavani.

With that in mind we could see one of the more entertaining ties in the Last 16 of the Champions League. Both Legs should see goals being scored and I believe it is going to be a tie that should be pleasing on the eye for the neutrals tuning in.

Paris Saint-Germain have a pretty poor record in England having won 1 of their last 9 visits across the Channel. They have been beaten in this country in half of their 6 visits since 2014 and I think Manchester United can add to that record.

I imagine the tie will still be very much alive when they reconvene in Paris next month, but I am going to back Manchester United to have a lead going into the Second Leg.

It is hard to imagine PSG leaving Old Trafford without a goal though and so I will have a small interest in Manchester United to win a game in which both teams score. Paris Saint-Germain still have enough of a threat in the final third to pose Manchester United problems and 1 clean sheet in 7 games at Old Trafford makes it hard to believe they can keep one here.

The French Champions have also scored at least twice in 3 of their last 4 visits to England in the Champions League including twice at Liverpool in the Group Stage and so backing Manchester United to win a game where both teams score looks a very big price and worth a small interest.

Of course I would love United to win this one 4-0, but my head is ruling my heart with this selection from a fascinating Last 16 tie.


Roma v Porto Pick: The Champions League is always going to be a very important competition for clubs around Europe and this looks like a tie that both Roma and Porto will appreciate as they try and reach the Quarter Final of the tournament.

It is not one in which you can clearly pick who will make it through to the Last Eight and I do think the home Legs are going to be critical for both clubs.

This feels especially important for Roma who are perhaps not the best travellers in the Champions League. They had won 7 in a row at home in the competition before losing to Real Madrid in the Group Stage, but the away form has been miserable with 7 losses from their last 8 in the Champions League.

Roma have been a little out of sync domestically which raises some doubts about them, but they have remained steady at home and have won 4 of 6 here since the loss to Real Madrid. They have scored plenty of goals in those games and I think the play will be dominated by Roma in this First Leg.

However that may leave them vulnerable to the counter attack and Porto do have the kind of players in the final third who can spring quickly and cause huge damage when they exploit spaces left by teams. The goals scored in the wins at Lokomotiv Moscow and Galatasaray shows how dangerous Porto can be, while they have only lost 1 of their last 7 away games in the Champions League and that has to be respected.

Porto won in Rome in August 2016 as the home team fell apart when two men were sent off, but I do give this current Roma team the narrow edge in this First Leg.

As much as Porto need to be respected for their away run in the Champions League, they have just been struggling for goals in recent away games domestically and this should be a step up in terms of quality. Backing Roma on the Asian Handicap at least returns half the stake in the event of a draw and that is the selection I recommend in this one.


Ajax v Real Madrid Pick: Like the Manchester United and Paris Saint-Germain tie, this feels like another that would have had a different feeling if the matches had been played in December when the draw was made rather than in February.

Ajax had just been through a tough Group Stage unbeaten and had held Bayern Munich to draws at home and away, while Real Madrid almost looked lost with their inconsistent performances and some difficult defeats to absorb.

Now the three time defending Champions League Winners look to be rounding back into form as the concentration picks up from the players into February. Real Madrid have been in fine form in recent games and their performance in the draw at Barcelona and win at Atletico Madrid suggest the players are locked in and ready for another strong Champions League run.

There is no doubting Ajax can make it tough for Real Madrid considering they are unbeaten in 30 at home in all competitions. They have won 5 of their 6 home Champions League games this season and Ajax had their chances to beat Bayern Munich in both games in the Group.

However they have come out of their Winter Break in erratic form having lost 2 and won 2 of 5 games played. Both defeats came away from home, but this is another step up in terms of a test for a young team and I think it is going to be difficult for Ajax to contain Real Madrid in the form they are in.

I think Ajax can play their part and they have shown they can score plenty of goals, but they also concede too many. Real Madrid look like they have turned a corner in terms of focus as we head into the final three months of the season and I think that change in mentality will see them battle hard and find a way to earn the win in Amsterdam to set them up for a place in the Quarter Final.

Real Madrid have been very good away from home in the Champions League having won 10 of their last 13 on their travels. They have scored at least twice in each of those wins too and I will back them to win here in a game that features two or more goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v Borussia Dortmund Pick: Over the years the feeling has been that the Knock Out Rounds of the big European competitions will develop into chess matches as managers try and minimise damage to their own teams as the first priority.

It does feel like there has been a shift in the approach of many over the last couple of years though and now teams look to get on the front foot and score the goals to take them through the Rounds.

In the 2014/15 season 14/29 matches finished with less than three goals in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds and that number has moved to 16, 9 and then 5 in the next three seasons.

Last season there were plenty of goals scored in the Knock Out Rounds and while VAR may have an impact against that, I do think the teams involved in the Champions League are much more known for positive, attacking play than strong arm defensive tactics.

Tottenham Hotspur versus Borussia Dortmund certainly feels like the making of two high-scoring fixtures as they meet in the First Leg in London on Wednesday evening. The home team have the onus to get forward and have a lead to take to Dortmund next month, while Borussia Dortmund are a real attacking threat mixed in with some defensive vulnerabilities.

The two previous matches between these clubs at Wembley Stadium in 2016 and 2017 both featured at least three goals and I do think there is enough quality in the final third to reach that number again. Keeping a clean sheet longs a long shot for either team on current form and I think there will be enough chances in this one to see at least three goals shared out despite the age old feeling that the First Leg of these ties can be feeling out affairs.

In the last three seasons only 8/24 First Legs have finished with fewer than three goals shared out and I don't think this will be one of those. Before Tottenham Hotspur's 1-0 win over Inter Milan their last 7 home Champions League games had ended with at least three goals shared out.

The Borussia Dortmund away games in the Group Stage did all end with two or fewer goals shared out, but they are not defending too well at the moment and I will look for three or more goals to be scored on Wednesday evening.


BATE Borisov v Arsenal Pick: This is not quite the time for Unai Emery to hitch his wagon to either the Europa League or trying to finish in the top four of the Premier League, but the manager will be keen to keep both avenues open for a return to the Champions League. His previous successes in the Europa League means the manager knows what needs to be done to progress from these Knock Out ties and Arsenal may also benefit from being out of the FA Cup as that means a free weekend to rest coming up.

With that in mind I would expect a strong Arsenal team to be selected in this First Leg as they look to get into a comfortable position in the tie before the Second Leg back at home next week. The team Unai Emery selected in the Group game in Lisbon against Sporting showed he is willing to play key players in the Europa League to make sure the job is done and I think that could be the case here with that free weekend next up.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang may not be risked as he recovers from an illness, but the likes of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Aaron Ramsey, Mesut Ozil, Alex Iwobi and Alexandre Lacazette could be taken to Belarus and that would give Arsenal a real edge in this First Leg.

BATE Borisov have made it through to the Knock Out Rounds of a European competition for the first time so have to be excited about the opportunity in front of them. They pushed Chelsea in a 0-1 defeat to them in the Group Stage, but I do think they are dealing with a difficult situation as they play this tie in the middle of their Winter Break and the inexperience of building match fitness to be ready for this time of the year may cost the home team.

They have also suffered 3 losses to PSV Eindhoven, PAOK and Chelsea in Europe already this season and Arsenal have won 7 of 10 away Europa League games over the last eighteen months. One of those was the 2-4 win at BATE Borisov and I think Unai Emery selects a team that can give them a big advantage for the home Leg and thus allow him to rest one or two more key names ahead of the return of the Premier League the following weekend.

I will back Arsenal to cover the Asian Handicap and secure a fourth away win in the Europa League this week.


Celtic v Valencia Pick: Getting to play in any of the European competitions after Christmas is a big achievement for Celtic and Brendan Rodgers will be looking for his players to use the domestic momentum to try and surprise one of the favourites to win the Europa League.

Any chance of that happening will have seen the foundations of the upset laid at home and Celtic are going to have their chances to at least have a lead to take to Spain next week. It won't be easy with the squad being stretched by injuries, but Valencia are anything but convincing away from home and Celtic can cause them one or two problems.

Valencia have been tough to beat in recent games, but they have not been winning too many themselves and that makes it hard to see them as a pretty short favourite to win at a tough ground like Celtic Park. They were recently leading 0-2 at Barcelona in an eventual 2-2 draw, but Valencia have not travelled well in European games over the last few years and that includes failing to win as a favourite at Basel and Young Boys.

Some will suggest Celtic are arguably weaker than both of those Swiss teams, but they are still a tough out at home. Brendan Rodgers' style does leave Celtic more open than you would perhaps like against some of the better teams in Europe, but that style can also see them put Valencia under pressure and I think they will be roared on passionately by the supporters on Thursday.

The Celtic players can have a chance to express their love for the supporters on Valentines' Day by producing a big performance and at least avoiding defeat in the First Leg. They have been playing well enough at Celtic Park to think they can do that and I am not convinced Valencia will be pushing for a winner if they are holding a draw going into the last fifteen minutes of this one.


Malmo v Chelsea Pick: The Europa League is certainly going to be seen as a potential route back into the Champions League by the fans of Arsenal and Chelsea who both sit outside the top four of the Premier League as this competition resumes.

Maurizio Sarri has to be feeling the pressure to deliver Champions League Football back to Stamford Bridge and that will only have increased after yet another capitulation from his team away from home. This time it was at Manchester City as Chelsea were embarrassed 6-0 by the defending Champions on Sunday and the Italian manager has to be looking for an immediate reaction.

Chelsea have been in miserable form away from home though and this tie comes in the midst of a very tough run. The Blues have played at Manchester City and next face Manchester United in the FA Cup, Manchester City again, this time in the League Cup Final, and then Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League.

That won't be enough of an excuse if Chelsea are not able to see off Malmo over two Legs and I don't think they will slip up against the Swedish team who have not played a competitive game since early December. However I do think Chelsea could be given some problems to deal with in the First Leg in Sweden where Malmo have a long unbeaten run and have also not lost any of their last 8 European games.

The majority of those games have been against teams far weaker than Chelsea though and even the changes expected to be made to the away team should not affect their chances of winning this fixture. It might make it a slightly tighter game though and I do think Chelsea will be pretty content if they don't lose here which means the Manchester United game on Monday could be the priority for them.

A team containing Andreas Christensen, Ross Barkley, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Callum Hudson-Odoi, Willian and Olivier Giroud should do enough to manage Malmo and Chelsea have done that in the Europa League this season having secured two narrow wins and a draw away from home in the Group.

Malmo will likely be competitive even if they fall short of the quality needed to beat Chelsea on the day. That should give them a chance to at least keep this close with the start on the Asian Handicap appealing enough to back them considering Chelsea's form and likely team changes made.

There is a concern that Chelsea will put all their form together and earn a big win in Sweden on Thursday, but there aren't too many sweet nothings being whispered between the manager and the players and I don't foresee a St Valentines' Massacre being produced by Chelsea in the First Leg.

MY PICKS: Manchester United Win & Both Teams to Score @ 4.00 Bet Fred
Roma - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor
Real Madrid Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Tottenham Hotspur-Borussia Dortmund Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Bet Victor
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor
Celtic + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor
Malmo + 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet Victor