Midweek Football Picks 2019 (October 1-3)

Match Day 2 of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage takes centre stage during the week and I am looking to open up October in the same fashion in which September ended.

It was a much stronger month than August, and it was good to wipe out the poor first month of the 2019/20 season. I do want to kick on now and really start producing some strong returns to move forward and the few selections during this week will hopefully begin to do that.


I had wrote a short piece about Manchester United prior to their League Cup win over Rochdale which can be read here. They have an important game in the Europa League this week and a win would mean Manchester United can start thinking about Qualifying for the Last 32 with a couple of games to spare and that is important for a thin squad that will need some rest ahead of the busy December period that all English clubs face.


Onto the Champions League Picks from Match Day 2 and the update to the season totals below.


Real Madrid v Club Brugge Pick: You don't want to completely rule out Club Brugge causing problems for Real Madrid considering how they played in the Group Stage of the Champions League twelve months ago. Atletico Madrid needed late goals to see them off and Borussia Dortmund had to settle for a draw with them at home, while Real Madrid seem to be playing with some vulnerable confidence at the moment.

Even then it is hard to see Real Madrid doing anything but bouncing back after the 3-0 defeat in Paris on Match Day 1. They have looked very good in the League since that defeat to move to the top of the Spanish top flight, and Real Madrid have shown some resiliency with 3 clean sheets in a row.

The return of Nacho and Sergio Ramos will help and I do think Real Madrid are very dangerous at home where they are looking to snap a run of consecutive Champions League defeats. The side have scored at least twice in their last couple of wins here overall and Real Madrid should be able to get on the front foot against Club Brugge who were beaten heavily at Salzburg in the Europa League Last 32 last season.

Club Brugge will be playing with the belief of a team that is unbeaten in 14 games to open the 2019/20 season, but that may not be enough. They can create chances here with the spaces Real Madrid tend to leave behind when getting forward, but I am not sure it will be enough to really challenge a team who want to get this Group back on the right track.

Last season late goals saw Atletico Madrid pull clear of Club Brugge and I think Real Madrid will match that margin of victory.


Galatasaray v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: I really did fancy Paris Saint-Germain to get the better of Real Madrid on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage, but injuries to the front three tempered by enthusiasm for them. It ultimately proved to be little problem for the French Champions who deservedly won on the day and Paris Saint-Germain have to be looking to secure a Last 16 place as soon as possible.

Wins over Galatasaray and then in the double header with Club Brugge over the next month will put Paris Saint-Germain through to the Last 16 and I do think they are capable of doing that.

Both away games will be difficult beginning with this trip to Istanbul, but Paris Saint-Germain have won 7 of their 12 away Champions League Group games and they have also won back to back away games in the competition overall at Crvena Zvezda and Manchester United.

Playing in Istanbul is rarely an easy task for any team in European Football and Galatasaray are unbeaten in 14 at home in all competitions. That has to be respected, but both Porto and Benfica won here in the Champions League and Europa League respectively last season and this Paris Saint-Germain team are stronger than those two even without Neymar and Edinson Cavani.

This won't always be easy for Paris Saint-Germain, but they have been defending well enough in recent away games to lay the foundation for success here. The chances created in Bordeaux is encouraging even if they have been lacking goals away from home and I think there is enough here to back Paris Saint-Germain to record a good looking win on the night and earn their third away win in a row in the Champions League.


Manchester City v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: The layers are not going to be offering anything too short in terms of a margin of victory for Manchester City in this fixture and I am not surprised when you think of the amount of goals the English Champions have been scoring. It is very difficult to see how Dinamo Zagreb are going to keep it competitive against a team who have scored four or more goals in 3 of their last 4 home Champions League games.

The win over Atalanta will make Dinamo Zagreb believe, but that was at home and this is a club who have lost 12 away games in a row in the Champions League Group Stage. A lot of those defeats have been by wide margins and I think Manchester City have rested enough big name players to believe they are going to produce a very strong win in this one.

It is a big Asian Handicap though and it will need a three goal margin of victory to secure a full payout, but I would be surprised if Manchester City did not win by that margin. The defensive problems are a concern as one goal for the visitors would make it very difficult to see how Manchester City can cover the number, but I think Dinamo Zagreb will soon see this as a damage limitation exercise.

Fast starts have been common for Manchester City since the 3-2 defeat to Norwich City and they have scored within 25 minutes in each of the four wins since then. Another one would set them up for a big win on Tuesday and put Manchester City in a very strong position to Qualify and win this Group before the end of November.

I think Dinamo Zagreb will find their 4-0 win over Atalanta on Match Day 1 has not really prepared them for a test like this and Manchester City can win easily enough on the day.


Barcelona v Inter Milan Pick: It sounds like Barcelona will have some attacking players back in contention for a starting spot for the Match Day 2 game in the Champions League, although Lionel Messi is a doubt.

Both Barcelona and Inter Milan drew their opening Champions League games which has increased the importance of this one as they look to get going in a difficult looking Group. The Barcelona draw in Dortmund certainly looks more positive than the home draw Inter Milan had with Slavia Prague and I do think the Italian club are built for success domestically and perhaps not in the European competitions.

Inter Milan appointed Antonio Conte to break the Juventus domination of Serie A and the manager has had his best successes in domestic competitions. He has struggled for an impact in the Champions League and Inter Milan looked short of ideas in their home draw with Slavia Prague.

Now they have to face a Barcelona team that remain very strong at home and who have won 29 of 32 games at the Nou Camp in the Champions League. A Lionel Messi-less Barcelona beat Inter Milan 2-0 here last season and I think they can do the same on Wednesday on Match Day 2 of the Group Stage this time around too.

Barcelona have been scoring plenty of goals at home and they should be able to break down an Inter Milan team who do have questions to answer at the back. The Italian side will head to Spain with some confidence from their League form and they do have attacking players to make a difference, but Barcelona should be too strong on the day.

Backing the home team to cover the Asian Handicap is the selection.


Lille v Chelsea Pick: Both Lille and Chelsea were beaten on Match Day 1 of the Champions League which means this could be a vital game for both in their bids to get Qualification to the Last 16 back on track.

This should be a good match with both Lille and Chelsea capable of playing impressive attacking football while perhaps not looking as secure at the back as they would like.

Chelsea have conceded at least twice in every away game played under Frank Lampard and Lille have managed two or more goals in 7 of their last 8 home games going back to last season. All four played this season have seen Lille hit that mark so they will feel they can get hurt their visitors on Match Day 2.

On the other side Chelsea have scored eight goals in their last couple of away games and played well on their travels in the Europa League last season. The Blues have scored at least three goals in their last 2 away games at Norwich City and Wolves, and I do think they can challenge a Lille team who won't have faced too many teams of the quality of Chelsea on a regular basis.

Both teams will feel they can get on the scoreboard here and the importance of the three points should help encourage an attacking and expansive game. Backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call here.


Liverpool v Salzburg Pick: This has the makings of a really good Champions League game with the approach that both Liverpool and Salzburg will take to the game.

While many teams will head to Anfield and look to be tight and well organised defensively, Salzburg have shown in the last couple of years in the Europa League that they are willing to take chances with their attacking play. Last season they were beaten 3-0 in Naples in the Europa League Last 16, but Salzburg created plenty of good chances of their own and they must recognise that the Liverpool defence is not playing as well as it was last season.

The absence of Alisson does leave Liverpool a little vulnerable at the back, but attacking this team at Anfield can expose defences to the much vaunted front three who should all be starting for the home team. Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah have the perfect blend of pace and creativity in the final third and I do expect they will be in a position to hurt Salzburg in this one too.

Liverpool have been very strong at Anfield and 10 of their last 11 here have ended with wins by two or more goals. They also have won 7 of their last 8 at home in the Champions League and I do think the defeat in Napoli on Match Day 1 will focus the players for a big performance here.

I would not be surprised if Salzburg score here, but I think their attacking intent will leave them open to the home team too. It could be an enjoyable game of football for the neutrals when two attacking teams take the field, but at the end of the fixture I would expect Liverpool have won by a good margin.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lille-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (April 16-18)

Forgive me, but I am still trying to get over the terrible Fantasy Week I experienced as pretty much every decision I made for my team was the wrong one.

I'll get back to that on Friday when the next Weekend Football thread comes out along with my Fantasy selections for GW35, but this thread is concentrating on the Quarter Final matches to be played in the Champions League and Europa League this week.

Most of the Second Legs to come over the next three days are finely balanced and even the ties that look like there is a real advantage for one of the teams are far from over considering what we have seen in European competition throughout this season.

You can read my thoughts on the four Champions League fixtures and the two Europa League fixtures involving the English clubs below.


Barcelona v Manchester United Pick: The First Leg of this Quarter Final was an interesting game, but Manchester United had to feel disappointed they were not able to test a Barcelona team who are not as strong as previous editions. It does feel the best chance of winning the tie would have been at Old Trafford, but Manchester United have won at big away grounds in the Champions League this season including a stunning 1-3 win in Paris to make it through to the Quarter Final.

That is something that may be on the minds of the Barcelona players, but they will also know they are a much more secure team than Paris Saint-Germain from a mental point of view. Where Paris Saint-Germain have something of a reputation for being potential chokers, Barcelona are unbeaten in 30 Champions League home games and have won 27 of them.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is right to say this is a bigger challenge than winning in Paris despite the closer nature of the scoreline from the First Leg. Ultimately Barcelona are not known to blow leads like the one they have and they are a different beast at home compared with their travels.

Manchester United have won in Paris and Turin during their Champions League run and scored at least twice in both games so there is hope. The performances in recent weeks tempers some of the enthusiasm though and it would be a huge surprise if they can turn up the level after struggling in recent games to really impose themselves.

They key will be to stay in this one as long as possible and hope to exploit nerves for a team that have not reached the Champions League Semi Final since winning the trophy in 2015. It just sounds too far fetched here and as much as I would LOVE to be wrong again (like I was in the Second Leg in the last Round), I can only see Barcelona taking the lead and this time exploiting spaces that Manchester United will inevitably have to leave behind to get back into the tie.

Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City have taken some thumping defeats in visits to the Nou Camp in the last three years and it could be the turn of Manchester United this week.


Juventus v Ajax Pick: The majority of the First Leg of this Champions League Quarter Final was dominated by Ajax at the Amsterdam Arena, but I think Juventus will be far the happier with the 1-1 draw that gives them a slight edge in the tie.

I think there will have to be some wariness of what Ajax are capable of doing when Juventus take in the 1-4 win the Dutch club had at Real Madrid in the Second Round, but being back at home should be a big comfort for the Italian Champions.

The team should be fresh with many being rested for the 2-1 loss at SPAL this past weekend and Juventus have been scoring plenty of goals at home. However they have been far from invulnerable here in the Champions League with 2 losses from their last 5 games played in this competition.

Ajax play with the freedom of youth which makes them very dangerous and they will believe they can score at least one goal that that they need to give themselves a chance of progressing. Balancing attack and defence will be the key and Ajax can't expect Juventus to defend anywhere near as poorly as Real Madrid did in the Last 16.

I do think they will have chances, but Ajax will also have to take risks and Juventus have been scoring goals for fun in front of their own fans. I do think there will be a situation where Juventus are able to expose their visitors on the counter attack to confirm their place in the Semi Final and the Ajax upsets end here.

All respect to Ajax for reaching the Quarter Final against the odds and for some of their performances to get to this Stage. However this may be just a step too far despite the draw in Bayern Munich and win in Real Madrid and I will back Juventus to win a game featuring two or more goals.


Manchester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The First Leg was a real tactical battle between Pep Guardiola and Mauricio Pochettino, although I do think some of the criticism of the former was unwarranted. Of course he had to expect that Manchester City lost the First Leg, but it was almost a perfect performance in which Guardiola's team missed a penalty and were punished for one lapse of concentration.

A lack of an away goal is an issue here, but I think Manchester City will still be confident having had 3 straight wins over Tottenham Hotspur before the defeat last week. They were arguably the better team and Manchester City have won 12 in a row at home where they are not conceding too many goals.

It does feel like another tactical battle will develop as Tottenham Hotspur look to use the pace of the likes of Heung-Min Son and Lucas Moura to get the better of Manchester City. They will be looking to sit in and defend effectively and Mauricio Pochettino will be very much aware of how crucial an away goal could be for his team.

Pep Guardiola will know the same and, unlike twelve months ago, I don't think he will be pushing his team for the fast start they needed to try and overturn the 3-0 deficit they had at the same stage against Liverpool last season. This time I think the manager will be looking for control and making sure his players are concentrated defensively.

Harry Kane's absence is a blow, but not a fatal one for Tottenham Hotspur. I do think the potential absence of Dele Alli coupled with Kane's absence could be a blow and Manchester City can overturn the First Leg deficit.

The home team have not been conceding too many goals at the Etihad Stadium since the three conceded to Crystal Palace back in December and I think the first priority here will be to keep a clean sheet. Pep Guardiola will always believe his team have at least one goal in them so this feels like a fixture that could potentially be balanced for a while with my selection being Manchester City to win with a clean sheet.


Porto v Liverpool Pick: It will take an almost perfect performance from Porto if they are going to overturn the deficit from the First Leg and move into the Champions League Semi Final at the expense of Liverpool. The 2-0 away defeat makes it very difficult to imagine they can do that, but Porto did create enough chances to believe they can cause problems for their opponents.

Porto have been strong at home in recent games and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games here in the Champions League. However none of the players and fans would have forgotten the exception in that run which was the 0-5 defeat to Liverpool in the Last 16 fourteen months ago.

The home team will have to take chances at some point and I think Liverpool are going to be able to exploit those on the counter attack. The visitors have to find the balance of trying to manage this fixture to conserve some energy for big games coming up, but they can't afford to allow Porto to build some momentum especially with a relatively poor away record in the Champions League.

The counter attack is going to be very important for Liverpool and I think they are good enough to win on the day, although Porto can play a part too with the chances they were able to create in the First Leg. If both teams show even a little more composure I think they will be able to combine for a Second Leg that features three or more goals on the night and that is going to be my recommendation for this fixture.

My worry would be that Liverpool score first and knock the stuffing out of their hosts and the remainder of the fixture is played at a light tempo, but both teams have looked like they are capable of scoring goals when they go forward against the other and I do think three or more will be shared out.


Chelsea v Slavia Prague Pick: The First Leg in the Czech Republic was quite a tight and competitive affair, but Chelsea's win in Prague has given them the edge and I would expect them to make it through to the Semi Final of the Europa League.

The importance of the competition may have increased after the 2-0 defeat to Liverpool on Sunday, but Maurizio Sarri has long been taking it seriously and Chelsea players have enjoyed their experiences in the competition. Chelsea have won all 5 Europa League games played at Stamford Bridge this season and they have scored three or more goals in their last 4 as they have been able to make serene progression through the draw.

I would expect them to have too much for a Slavia Prague team that have just hit a poor patch of form with 2 wins from their last 5 in all competitions. Slavia Prague have also been beaten in half of their 6 away European ties this season and I do think the pressure will be on them to get forward to try and get back into the tie which can give Chelsea the chance to counter attack and finish them off.

I can see that happening in the second half as Slavia Prague begin to have to take risks and Chelsea may be able to win the Second Leg by a slightly wider margin than the First Leg. This feels like a fixture Chelsea will be able to win by a couple of goals on the day and I will look for them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Napoli v Arsenal Pick: Any time a team wins 2-0 at home in a European Knock Out tie there is no doubting the very strong position they have put themselves in, but this Arsenal team are vulnerable on their travels and Unai Emery may regret not seeing his team take more of the chances that came their way last week.

Regret will also be on the mind of Carlo Ancelotti as Napoli missed some late chances to earn an away goal to take back home and now his team are going to have to play an almost perfect game to get back into this one.

A single Arsenal goal is going to put a lot of pressure on Napoli to find the goals to get out of the tie, but the confidence will come from 4 wins in 5 European fixtures played here this season. They have kept clean sheets in 3 of those 5 games including in both of the Europa League Knock Out ties they have played and Napoli will believe a vulnerable Arsenal defence can be exposed.

Ultimately I think they are going to have to take chances and that will give Arsenal an opportunity to at least grab one away goal which should be enough to take them through. However, I think Napoli may be good enough to find the win on the day and I will back them to win a fixture containing two or more goals.

MY PICKS: Barcelona - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Juventus to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Ladbrokes
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 2.45 Bet Victor
Porto-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor
Napoli to Win & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.95 Ladbrokes

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (April 9-11)

We are down to the final eight teams in both the Champions League and Europa League for the 2018/19 season and those Quarter Final ties are going to be played over the next ten days.

With UEFA going back to the formula they used a few years ago in drawing the Quarter Final ties and Semi Final ties at the same time, managers and fans can begin to plot the paths and decide which teams they believe will go on and compete in the Finals.

I wish I could say I was looking forward to doing the same, but the way things have panned out in the Champions League I really am beginning to fear the 'worse case scenario Final' is ready to come round. That is obviously Manchester City v Liverpool as the belief that two of Manchester United's biggest rivals are about to split the top trophies comes sharply into view.

Juventus, Barcelona and the other two English representatives in the Champions League Quarter Final may have something to say about that though.

Three of the four ties really do come with very strong storylines in the Champions League in this Round, but I have to suggest Liverpool are huge favourites to see off a Porto team they beat 5-0 in the Last 16 last season.

Ajax and Manchester United produced stunning away performances in the Last 16 Second Legs played last month, but both are considerable underdogs when they face Juventus and Barcelona respectively. Both also play at home this week and you have to think they can't afford to have the losses suffered in those Stadiums in the First Leg of the Last 16 ties if they are going to have a chance to progress to an unexpected Semi Final later this month.

Most will have Manchester City down as a strong favourite to beat Tottenham Hotspur too, but I think there is some intrigue attached to that tie. The current English Champions are playing a lot of football at the moment and you would think that is going to catch up with them, while Spurs are a team that can compete with the very best on their day.

Again the First Leg is of paramount importance to the underdog and if Tottenham Hotspur can take a lead to the Eithad Stadium next Wednesday then I do think they would have every chance of the upset in the tie.


In the Europa League it does look like Chelsea have been given a great chance to reach the Final and have two shots to make the Champions League having moved back into the top four. They should get the better of Slavia Prague and will be favoured to beat either Benfica or Eintracht Frankfurt, especially after the English clubs dominated two of the best Bundesliga teams in the Champions League.

Arsenal's path looks much trickier as they need to overcome Napoli and then either Valencia or Villarreal and it would not be a huge upset if they fail to reach the Semi Final. The First Leg in North London this week is vital for Arsenal if they are going to have a chance of knocking out a Napoli team that may be focusing on the Europa League with their Champions League spot virtually secure from their League form.


Below you can read my thoughts on the Champions League and Europa League First Legs to be played this week- I have covered all of the ties involving the English teams as well as the Quarter Final between Ajax and Juventus in the Champions League.


Liverpool v Porto Pick: Late goals have kept the momentum behind Liverpool as far as the Premier League title challenge is concerned, but the recent performances have come under the strain of expectation from a fanbase desperate for a first English title since 1990.

It hasn't been a real help for Liverpool, but they are battling hard and winning games breeds confidence more often than not.

On Tuesday they return to the Champions League and I think there is going to be a little more freedom about Liverpool. This is a team who have played some of their best football in the Champions League over the last eighteen months and Anfield has proved to be a very difficult environment for teams to come in and compete against them.

They had won 5 in a row in the Champions League at Anfield prior to the goalless draw with Bayern Munich, but I am not sure Porto can be as defensively sound as the German Champions were that day.

Porto lost in Rome in the last Round and had to turn things around at home, but they will be wary of Liverpool having been crushed by them in the Second Round last season. They did manage a goalless draw at Anfield, but that had a lot to do with Liverpool having a 0-5 lead from the First Leg and I think the intensity will be much greater for the home team in this one.

Jurgen Klopp is going to want a healthy lead to take to Portugal next week so Liverpool can completely focus on the big Premier League game with Chelsea this weekend. Having a big lead could also give the manager a chance to rest some key players for the League fixtures ahead and I think Porto are the ideal team for Liverpool to face in the Quarter Final as they fight on two fronts.

I have to give Porto some respect having had a 6 game unbeaten run away from home in the Champions League before losing in Rome last time out. However they have benefited from kind draws and this is a huge test for a team who have been beaten by Benfica on multiple occasions already this season.

The visitors will want to make sure there is all to play for in the Second Leg next week, but I think Liverpool are too good for them and can win by a healthy margin.


Tottenham Hotspur v Manchester City Pick: This is an intriguing Champions League Quarter Final as Manchester City have to face another Premier League club for the second season in a row at this stage of the competition. Last season they were beaten at Anfield 3-0 in the First Leg and could not recover, but Manchester City are strong favourites to see off Tottenham Hotspur.

Kevin De Bruyne downplayed the significance of the game being held at Tottenham Hotspur's new Stadium, but I really don't know what kind of factor this will be. The atmosphere will be far more intense than it would have been if the game was played at Wembley Stadium although I do think there are other factors at play in the First Leg.

The main one is the issue of potential fatigue as Tottenham Hotspur are well rested compared with Manchester City who had the tough FA Cup Semi Final win over Brighton to get through on Saturday. At the same time Tottenham Hotspur have not played since last Wednesday so if there is a time for them to snap their losing run to the defending Premier League Champions then this feels like it.

If both Kyle Walker and Sergio Aguero can't start it makes life that much tougher for Manchester City with injuries in defensive areas beginning to pile up while Gabriel Jesus is simply not as clinical as the Argentinian he is replacing. In games out of the international break Manchester City have been more functional than blistering as they are looking to manage their way through games and I think Tottenham Hotspur are a good enough team to take advantage.

I am not sure Spurs have enough to win the game, but I think they have the pace and power to cause significant problems for Manchester City. The poor run of 3 straight losses to Manchester City is a mental obstacle to overcome, but the schedule could not have worked much better for Tottenham Hotspur and the fans should bring their best to inspire the players with the first Champions League game held in the new Stadium.

It is not easy to oppose Manchester City, but I would be surprised if they are able to put this tie to bed in the First Leg. With that in mind I will recommend backing Tottenham Hotspur with the start on the Asian Handicap that will return half the stake in the event of a Manchester City win by a single goal margin.


Ajax v Juventus Pick: Fixtures like this are what the Champions League have been all about as the four time European Champions Ajax take on two time Winners Juventus in the Quarter Final.

You can't ignore the fact that Ajax are not the force of old, but this season could be a perfect storm for them as a group of talented youngsters have come together to produce a strong campaign. This group is not likely going to be together for very long, but they are in line to win a first Dutch title since 2014 and have already reached the Champions League Quarter Final for the first time since 2003.

It has not exactly been an easy path through the competition either as Ajax negotiated three Qualifying Rounds and have come out of a Group containing Bayern Munich and Benfica. The most memorable performance came in the Last 16 though as Ajax demolished Real Madrid 1-4 in the Santiago Bernebeu to take their place in the Quarter Final, although Juventus present a whole different level of challenge.

Cristiano Ronaldo is potentially missing for the Italian Champions, which is a significant blow, and there are some injury concerns in the squad that will raise doubts about the visitors. However Juventus remain in strong form and I do think the veteran experience is going to edge out the youthful exuberance of Ajax in this Quarter Final.

Juventus have previous for that when they beat Monaco very comfortably in the Champions League Semi Final in 2017. They won both Legs against a talented young side that season and I think Juventus are going to have a bit too much for Ajax who ran into a Real Madrid team that seemed unconcerned about defending in the last Round.

Defending is a strength for Juventus who have been decent travellers in the Champions League over the last two campaigns. The defeats to Young Boys and Atletico Madrid in back to back games might not suggest that, but Juventus had won 5 in a row away from home in the Champions League prior to those results and I think they will be able to take an advantage back to Turin.

The absence of Ronaldo is a concern, but even then I think Juventus can do enough and I will back them on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in the event of a draw.


Manchester United v Barcelona Pick: It needed something special and a lot of good fortune for Manchester United to progress past Paris Saint-Germain in the Last 16 and I think they will need to ride their luck at times if they are going to reach a first Semi Final in the Champions League since the 2010/11 season.

Let's be honest for one moment- PSG bottled the Second Leg as much as Manchester United won it and it started with a ridiculous back pass to send Romelu Lukaku through on goal and then a blunder from Gianluigi Buffon for a second goal.

Even then Manchester United needed the intervention of VAR to secure an injury time penalty in the 1-3 win in Paris on a crazy evening full of emotion. I was just as giddy as anyone out there, but in the cold light of day you do realise it is going to take something outrageous for Manchester United to beat the other big guns in the competition.

Facing Barcelona in the Quarter Final is about as tough a draw as they could have received and the First Leg is crucial for Manchester United. Produce the same result as the Paris Saint-Germain Home Leg and I think you can draw the curtain on the competition, but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer may be able to take more risks knowing he has been given the permanent job as manager of the club.

Ultimately Manchester United have to take risks if they want a lead to take to the Nou Camp next week and that means trying to get after a Barcelona defence that is far from watertight. The problem is leaving yourself exposed to the supreme attacking talents the visitors will be able to put on the field even if Barcelona have not been the best travellers in the Champions League in recent years.

A rested Manchester United should cause more problems on the counter attack for Barcelona with the pace in the final third. I do think that will be the case on Wednesday, although Barcelona are rightly favoured with their dominance in midfield likely leading to plenty of chances.

Manchester United scoring 1 goal in 5 home Champions League games is a real concern, but I don't believe Barcelona can keep a clean sheet, although the same applies to the home team. A 1-1 scoreline might actually suit both teams, but I think there will be enough chances in this game at both ends of the field to see at least three goals shared out in what is a classic European tie between two giants of the sport.


Arsenal v Napoli Pick: The Europa League might have been derided in some quarters in England, but this has become a competition of real importance with the opportunity of returning to the Champions League for the winner. With that bonus now attached to the trophy, English clubs have begun to really take this competition seriously and we have seen Manchester United win it in 2017 and Arsenal reach the Semi Final in 2018.

After losing 1-0 at Everton some Arsenal fans may feel the Europa League path is the best one back into the Champions League, but they have received a very tough draw for the Quarter Final.

Napoli don't look as strong as previous seasons, but there is still plenty of quality in the side and unlike Arsenal they are almost certainly secured of a top four finish in their domestic League. That means they can perhaps put more stock into trying to win the Europa League by resting players between this Quarter Final and I am anticipating a very close tie.

Neither team travels as well as they play at home so Arsenal could be frustrated they have had to switch the venue of the First and Second Leg as Chelsea are playing in London next week. UEFA didn't want both playing at home on the same MatchDay, so Arsenal have been forced to play the Home Leg first when they clearly would have preferred it the other way around.

In the last two Rounds Arsenal have recovered First Leg deficits at the Emirates Stadium, but I think the situation is similar albeit playing at home first this time. Unai Emery will know Arsenal need a lead to take to Naples so I imagine the intensity will be the same as if they were trailing from the First Leg.

Arsenal have been very good at home, although defensively they remain vulnerable. Teams might not have taken advantage, but Napoli are capable and I would not be surprised if they take an away goal back with them.

However I think Arsenal are good enough to edge the First Leg. Napoli have lost 2 of their 5 away European ties this season including a defeat in England to Liverpool. They have also failed to win in Crvena Zvezda, while recent form has been inconsistent. At least Arsenal have remained strong at home with a 7 game winning run to extend here and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to have a lead going into next week's Second Leg.


Slavia Prague v Chelsea Pick: I don't think anyone associated with Chelsea will be making assumptions about how far they can go in the Europa League, but the fans have to be excited with the way the draw has panned out for them. It looks like Chelsea are facing the weakest of the teams remaining in the last eight of the competition, but overlooking Slavia Prague would be a mistake.

In the last few seasons Slavia Prague have really improved both domestically and in Europe and their win over Sevilla in the Last 16 is an exceptional performance.

They did need Extra Time to secure the win and Slavia Prague have won just 2 of their 6 home European ties this season. The side are unbeaten in those games, but it is clear that Slavia Prague still have a way to go to bridge the gap to the very top teams in Europe and will need to ride their luck a little bit if they are going to see off Chelsea in this Quarter Final.

It looks a long shot, especially as Chelsea have been very comfortable in the Europa League so far this season. The Blues have won 9 of 10 Europa League ties and they have begun to score a few goals in those wins having beaten Malmo 5-1 and Dynamo Kiev 8-0 on aggregate in the Knock Out Rounds.

You have to believe that Slavia Prague will know their best chance of winning this tie is by having an advantage to take to West London next weekend and that could make this a fairly open First Leg. Chelsea have shown they can score goals away from home in the Europa League too and I think the two teams could combine for three or more on the day.

I'd be surprised if Chelsea do not have enough to win this tie and move into the Semi Final, but the First Leg could be a competitive outing and I will look for goals to be shared out on the evening.

MY PICKS: Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Fred
Tottenham Hotspur + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor
Juventus - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365
Manchester United-Barcelona Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.75 Betfair Sportsbook
Arsenal - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor
Slavia Prague-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.92 Bet Victor

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (March 5-7)

We are not too far away from the first international break in the 2019 calendar year as the Euro 2020 Qualifiers begin in their new slot just fifteen months before that tournament gets underway.

Before that break in the middle of March we are going to find out the final eight teams that will compete in both the Champions League and Europa League competitions. The Second Legs of the Last 16 Champions League ties begin three weeks after the First Legs were completed and there are a number of ties that look settled already.

Both Tottenham Hotspur and Paris Saint-Germain have big leads going into the four Last 16 Second Legs to be played on Tuesday and Wednesday this week, while Real Madrid won in Amsterdam but looked to have entered a crisis since then.

The best of the ties this week could be seeing how Roma get on defending the narrow lead in Porto, but those are two of the weaker teams left in the Champions League and I think the winner is going to be significantly overmatched in the Quarter Final regardless of who they are paired with.


This week we also have the First Legs of the Last 16 ties in the Europa League as teams chase a second entry point into the Champions League. The competition looks to be developing nicely with some decent teams involved and the majority of the favourites should be able to work their way through the ties they have been given.

Arsenal and Chelsea will be really keen to make sure they have a second chance into the Champions League which they are balancing with a strong effort to finish in the top four in the Premier League.


Borussia Dortmund v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: A lot of people in England have been looking at the Tottenham Hotspur stumbles in the last two weeks and been left to shake their head at a 'Spursy' turn of events for the club.

They have fallen off the Premier League title race thanks to back to back defeats at Burnley and Chelsea, while the home draw in the North London derby may have the fans looking over their shoulders rather than at trying to scale the top of the mountain in the Premier League.

It would be the most 'Spursy' of things if Tottenham Hotspur were to blow a 3-0 lead in the Champions League Last 16 on Tuesday and fail to make it through to the Quarter Final of the competition for the first time under Mauricio Pochettino. Even the defeat to Juventus as the favourites in the Last 16 Second Leg last season would be considered a far better loss than this one if Tottenham Hotspur were to go out.

While some would not be surprised if it happened, I have to admit I would be because they are facing an opponent going through arguably an even stickier patch than themselves.

Borussia Dortmund are not exactly firing on all cylinders with a single win from their last 7 in all competitions and in that time they have exited the German Cup, blown a big lead in the Bundesliga and capitulated in the final ten minutes at Wembley Stadium in the First Leg of the Champions League Last 16 tie.

At home Borussia Dortmund continue to score goals, but defensively they have looked a mess and it is hard to think they can earn a fourth consecutive clean sheet in the Champions League having finished with one in all of their Group Stage matches. That inability may prove to be the fatal blow on the day to their chances of progressing, but Dortmund have been showing a real attacking intent and face a Tottenham Hotspur team that have conceded twice in 4 away games in a row and lost every one of those.

In the Group Stage Borussia Dortmund also beat Monaco 3-0 and Atletico Madrid 4-0 so the fans will be fully behind their team to win this Second Leg and I think they can do that at odds against.

My only concern for Dortmund winning this Leg is that they may end up chasing the tie on aggregate late into the second half and could leave themselves vulnerable to a Tottenham Hotspur counter attack. If it is a narrow lead going into the final twenty minutes I would be worried about the backdoor recovery from Tottenham Hotspur if they are able to exploit the spaces that Dortmund would have to leave behind.

You've got to remember if Tottenham Hotspur score one, Borussia Dortmund will have to score five to progress and it could play into the way the game ends.

However on current form I have to think Spurs will just want to get through by hook or by crook and it may mean a nervy night in Germany. I dread to think how the fans and players will be feeling if they fall 2-0 behind, but at some point I think Tottenham Hotspur will get the goal to effectively end the tie although Borussia Dortmund may be able to record a win for the home fans on the evening.


Real Madrid v Ajax Pick: Losing the home tie is a big blow for the team that was considered a big underdog when the draw was made for the Champions League Second Round, but Ajax will feel they showed enough in the First Leg to believe they can cause problems for Real Madrid here.

They might be getting Real Madrid at a vulnerable time too as the home team have lost 3 in a row in front of their fans who are clearly very unhappy with how things are going in the Spanish capital. Back to back home defeats to Barcelona have angered and embarrassed the club and Real Madrid have conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 5 games here which will give Ajax some confidence.

This young Ajax team have been able to go to places like Lisbon and Munich and expressed themselves very well and they clearly have goals in the side. The chances created in the First Leg will have encouraged the Ajax players, while the absence of Sergio Ramos for Real Madrid makes an already shaky defence that much weaker.

Keeping Real Madrid out at the other end may be the biggest challenge in front of Ajax who had not kept a clean sheet in 6 away games in all competitions before the stunning 0-3 win in Rotterdam against Feyenoord last week. Ajax have also conceded in 12 of their last 13 away Champions League games so their best bet to win here is to try and outscore Real Madrid and see if away goals can earn their place in the Quarter Final in huge upset fashion.

It is a big ask of Ajax who could be picked off by Real Madrid if they begin chasing the game, but they will be confident against a home team that will know the fans are ready to get on their backs if they are not performing. Real Madrid don't lose too many games at home in the Champions League though and I think Ajax may ultimately come up a little short not for the lack of trying.

The attacking intentions of the visitors should at least contribute to a good game of football and I do think we will see goals on Tuesday. Backing Real Madrid at short odds in a fixture they don't have to win to go through seems a poor decision, but they have got goals in the side while they are conceding plenty too.

It wouldn't surprise me if Real Madrid hit Ajax with a sucker punch late on to win this game, but I expect Ajax to play their part here. They have scored at Benfica and Bayern Munich in the Group Stage and Real Madrid are missing leader Sergio Ramos so I do think the visitors will get at least one, while also fancying Real Madrid to score on the day.

I can see a situation where a late goal contributes to this fixture producing at least four goals on the night and that is going to be my selection from this Second Leg. A 3-1 Real Madrid win or a 2-2 draw really wouldn't shock me here and I will back goals to be shared out by two teams who may be happier going forward than defending on the night.


Paris Saint-Germain v Manchester United Pick: In the last couple of years we have seen some astonishing comebacks in the European Knock Out Rounds either in the Qualifiers or the final stages of those competitions.

There have been some memorable comebacks in the Champions League Knock Out Rounds too and the most notable may be the Paris Saint-Germain capitulation at the Nou Camp when they somehow blew a four game lead from the First Leg.

That was only two years ago, but the importance of that fixture was that Barcelona were at home in the Second Leg. Those big comebacks have been made by teams that have hosted the Second Leg and we have yet to see a team win by a wide margin away from home and blow the tie in front of their home fans.

Paris Saint-Germain did make history in the defeat to Barcelona by becoming the first team in European Cup history to lose a tie in which they had a four goal lead after the First Leg. That is the kind of thing that will still worry the fans despite the big win at Old Trafford as they look to avoid making history for a negative reason for the second time in three seasons.

However this time they are not facing a really good team like Barcelona and an injury hit Manchester United don't look to have the quality they need to overturn the events from the First Leg. Paul Pogba's suspension adds to the issues and a likely midfield of Scott McTominay, Fred and Andreas Pereira won't be worrying the Paris Saint-Germain players too much, if at all.

It is up to Paris Saint-Germain to make sure Manchester United are offered no encouragement though and they have all the advantages in this one as far as I am concerned. Home form has been good in recent weeks and the return of Thomas Meunier and potentially Edinson Cavani only makes them stronger than the First Leg when I thought they were well worth their win on the day.

Manchester United will employ the counter attack which has seen them win 8 away games in a row in all competitions and score two or more in 6 of those wins, but the absences are just racking up. Paul Pogba's loss will be huge in the midfield and I think Paris Saint-Germain will control the ball and ultimately put enough quality together in the final third to win this game and potentially make a statement to the rest of the contenders in the Champions League.

Paris Saint-Germain beat Liverpool comfortably in the Group Stage here under a lot of pressure and they have won big games against some of the top names in European Football in the last couple of years here.

I would love to be very much wrong with my pick for this fixture, but I can't help seeing anything but another comfortable win for Paris Saint-Germain who can do it by two or more goals on the night.


Porto v Roma Pick: The tie that stands out the most in the Champions League this week as being the one most on a knife edge clearly comes from Porto where the home team will host Roma 1-2 down from the First Leg. The late away goal earned by Porto could be critical to the outcome of the Last 16 tie where the winner is going to be arguably the most sought after opponent from those left in the draw.

That is no disrespect to Porto or Roma, but neither club looks capable of going on and winning the Champions League and there are going to be some huge names left in the Quarter Final stage.

Neither will actually care about that ahead of the Second Leg of this Last 16 tie though and I think it is a very close one to call. Porto have won 5 of their last 6 Champions League games at home including all 3 in the Group Stage, while Roma have lost 6 of their last 7 away games in the competition including all 3 in the Knock Out Rounds last season.

That may indicate it is not as close as I am suggesting, but Roma are a team that have scored plenty of away goals of late and I do think they can erase the away goal conceded in the Italian capital last month. With that in mind Porto will have to score at least twice to force Extra Time, but they could also be vulnerable to the counter attack and I do think Roma can cause plenty of issues for the home team to deal with.

The return of Moussa Marega is very important for Porto considering he scored five goals in the Group Stage of the Champions League and this really feels like it could be a game filled with goals. No matter who scores first it is going to potentially really open up this Second Leg and I think both teams are capable of scoring at least once.

Picking a winner on the night isn't easy even if I am leaning towards the home team to do it, but my overriding feeling is that at least three goals will be shared out on the night.

10 of the last 11 Roma Champions League games have seen at least three goals shared out, while it has happened in 8 of their last 9 on their travels in this competition. At the same time the last 5 Porto Champions League games have featured three or more goals, and 6 of their last 7 at home in the competition have done the same.

The situation from the First Leg leaves this potentially becoming an open Second Leg too and both clubs have shown they can score goals as well as being vulnerable at the back and seeing three or more goals looks the most likely outcome.


Rennes v Arsenal Pick: The draw for the Europa League gave both London based clubs a First Leg at home and the decision was made by UEFA that they had to switch one of the ties around.

That tie was the one between Rennes and Arsenal who will now meet in the First Leg in France rather than in North London.

It might be ideal for Rennes who have been given a weekend off by the French FA to prepare for this fixture. They will know the Home Leg is very important to give them a chance to progress to the Quarter Final despite beating Real Betis 1-3 in Spain in the last Round, and they could be facing Arsenal at a very good time.

The Gunners are in decent form, but this game is the meat in a Tottenham Hotspur-Manchester United sandwich for them and Arsenal are firmly in the top four race to believe those fixtures are very important to them. With a Home Leg to come next week, Arsenal might have a much changed team starting this fixture for them and it could give Rennes an opportunity for a surprise result.

It certainly makes Arsenal feel a short price at close to odds on to win here with that Manchester United game likely to in their minds. Rennes have been good at home this season too and they score enough goals to make me believe a vulnerable Arsenal backline is going to be tested here.

Arsenal have good attacking players though and Rennes have conceded in 3 of their 4 home games in the Europa League. It should mean the visitors have their chances here too and I think the best play may be backing at least three goals to be shared out.

Rennes have scored two or more goals in 5 straight at home in all competitions, but have only kept a couple of clean sheets in that time. With their best chances of earning a place coming from having a First Leg lead I expect Rennes to take some risks and I feel the game could come together to be one of the entertaining ones from the First Legs taking place.


Sevilla v Slavia Prague Pick: There is no doubt that Sevilla have fallen off a cliff when it comes to their form in Spain, but this is a club that has a real affiliation with the Europa League and the two wins over Lazio in the Last 32 underlines their status as one of the favourites to win the competition this season too.

Five Europa League wins in thirteen years is an incredible achievement and it is beginning to look like Sevilla's best route back into the Champions League. Sevilla have been dominant at home in Europe, especially at the Europa League level, and they will believe that form can take them through to the Final in Baku in May.

In this season's competition Sevilla have won all 7 home Europa League games and 6 of those have come by at least a two goal margin. In recent weeks they have won 3 of their last 5 at home in all competitions and Sevilla have scored at least twice in each of those games which suggests they could have too much firepower for their visitors on Thursday.

Slavia Prague have to be respected as the leaders of the Czech top flight and after working their way through to the Last 16. This is their best run in any European competition for a number of years, but I can't ignore the fact that Slavia Prague have had their issues away from home in Europe already this season.

In fact Slavia Prague have lost 3 of their 5 away European ties in the 2018/19 season and 2 of the defeats suffered have come by two goal margins.

I do think that is the most likely outcome of the First Leg which will put Sevilla in control of the tie and I will back the Spaniards to cover the Asian Handicap.


Zenit St Petersburg v Villarreal Pick: Balancing out European and domestic competitions can be a real challenge for clubs who have big goals to achieve in both.

In this situation I do feel that both Zenit St Petersburg and Villarreal may actually feel the Europa League could be a long-term distraction with their main ambitions being successes domestically.

For Zenit St Petersburg the final 12 games in the Russian Premier League will be all about trying to win a first League title since 2015. They are leading the way at the moment and that is their favoured avenue back into the Champions League.

It is a slightly different story for Villarreal who are battling to avoid relegation in the Spanish Primera Division and winning the Europa League won't make up for playing outside the top flight next season.

With that said I do think both clubs will be motivated to reach the Quarter Final and they have both been playing some of their better football in the Europa League. Zenit St Petersburg have a really strong record here in the last few years in Europe and they go into this one having won all 11 of their last 12 home games in the Europa League including all 6 played here this season.

Villarreal have yet to be beaten in the Europa League despite their poor domestic form and they did win at Sporting Lisbon last month. However Villarreal had to ride their luck to earn a 3-3 draw in Spartak Moscow in the Group Stage and this may feel like another step up for them.

I imagine it is going to be a tight First Leg and I do think all will be to play for when they meet again in Spain next week. However I have to give the slight edge to a Zenit St Petersburg team who have been very strong at home all season and who are facing a Villarreal side that have to be lacking some confidence despite forging a path through to the Last 16.

You can find odds against quotes backing the Russian leaders to have a lead to take into the Second Leg and that looks the way to go.


Chelsea v Club Brugge Pick: We are not at the stage of the season when clubs in Western Europe begin to prioritise the Europa League over domestic commitments, but the carrot of a place in the Champions League Group Stage for the winner of the competition has certainly made it a more appealing tournament.

For the likes of Chelsea they will want to keep two avenues back into the Champions League open for as long as possible and this looks to be a tie they can win, although the Second Leg will be problematic in terms of weather conditions and travel.

It makes the First Leg that much more important for Chelsea who will want to take a healthy lead to the Ukraine and have every chance of doing that. For all the negative stories around Stamford Bridge there is still a real belief that Chelsea can be very good at home and 7 wins from 8 games in all competitions underlines that point.

Chelsea have scored plenty of goals in those games and they have also won all 4 Europa League games at Stamford Bridge despite the rotation made to the starting eleven. The side have scored at least three goals in their last 3 here in the Europa League and I do think Maurizio Sarri will be looking to take a strong advantage to Kiev when he can afford to give a couple of key players more of a rest.

Dynamo Kiev beat Olympiacos in the Last 32 and they are not looking to make up the numbers but instead will want to replicate what other Eastern European clubs have done in the recent past in the Europa League. The last few years have seen Spanish clubs dominate, but Zenit St Petersburg and Shakhtar Donetsk have won the Europa League in the last twelve years and the chance to get back into the Champions League Group Stage should be a real inspiration for the visitors.

They have come out of their Winter Break in good form and Dynamo Kiev have lost just 1 of their 6 away European ties this season. Dynamo Kiev have scored in each of those away ties so they could be dangerous for Chelsea on Thursday, but my feeling is that a strong team is going to be selected by the home club and they can head into the Second Leg with a decent lead.

With the goals being scored at home, Chelsea can win and cover the Asian Handicap in this one, although I would not be surprised if Dynamo Kiev give themselves some hope by producing an away goal.

MY PICKS: Borussia Dortmund @ 2.05 Bet Fred
Real Madrid-Ajax Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Betfair Sportsbook
Paris Saint-Germain - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.70 Bet Victor
Porto-Roma Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.72 Bet Victor
Rennes-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365
Sevilla - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor
Zenit St Petersburg @ 2.00 Bet Victor
Chelsea - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (February 19-21)

The Champions League opening games might have been good ones for the neutral, but it wasn't much fun for Manchester United fans after suffering a home loss to Paris Saint-Germain that puts them firmly behind the black ball as far as progressing to the Quarter Finals goes.

That's something that will be revisited next month when United head to Paris and try and overturn the big advantage Paris Saint-Germain have built up, but the French Champions have had some memorable Champions League collapses before so you just never know.


This week it is the turn of the two biggest United rivals to get on with the opening of their Last 16 Champions League ties, while both Arsenal and Chelsea aim to put themselves into the hat for the Europa League Last 16 draw which takes place on Friday. Even though Arsenal were beaten in the First Leg, I would expect both of those clubs to find their way through to the next Round in what may soon become their best pathway back into the Champions League much like it was for Manchester United in the 2016/17 season.


The Premier League is going to be back this weekend, but fixtures begin on Friday so the Fantasy Football thread with the weekend selections will be ready to go around six hours before the FPL deadline on the day.


Liverpool v Bayern Munich Pick: The Champions League Last 16 draw has pitted together three ties involving English Premier League clubs taking on Bundesliga representatives and this is the second of those three ties.

Last week Tottenham Hotspur weathered an early Borussia Dortmund storm and then cruised into a 3-0 lead against the Bundesliga leaders, but Dortmund might just be going through a sticky patch. That isn't the case as much for Bayern Munich who have been scoring goals and producing plenty of wins to close the gap on the leaders in Germany and also give themselves real momentum going into the First Leg of this Second Round tie.

They face a rested Liverpool team whose primary focus may be winning the Premier League title, but who showed they are a dangerous Champions League team on their run to the Final last season. While some would suggest Liverpool ignore all Cup competitions and solely focus on the League, Jurgen Klopp won't want to lose to a team from the Bundesliga and Liverpool should have had ample time to prepare for this tie.

The absence of Virgil Van Dijk is a real blow for Liverpool considering the strength he has helped impose at the back. That may leave them vulnerable to Bayern Munich's attacking play, but I also think Liverpool have players in the final third that will scare the Bavarian giants and who have to be respected.

Bayern Munich have scored plenty of goals and have a long unbeaten run away from home in the Champions League. In their 8 games unbeaten, Bayern Munich have scored in each one and also beaten the likes of Sevilla and drawn at Real Madrid in a game they could have easily won on another day.

It makes me believe they can play their part in this First Leg, but my lean has been to Liverpool to have a lead to take to Germany next month. Liverpool have won 8 of their last 10 home Champions League games including the last 5 in a row, and one of the exceptions was a goalless draw with Porto in this Round twelve months ago after Liverpool had crushed them in Portugal.

Liverpool score plenty of goals at home in the Champions League and I think they edge out a high-scoring game which leaves the Second Leg with all to play for. The best play on the day may be backing Liverpool to win the First Leg in which both teams hit the net and that has to be worth a small interest.


Lyon v Barcelona Pick: A few days ago the layers were thinking about giving Lyon a full goal head-start on the Asian Handicap for this Last 16 First Leg tie and I would have been very keen to select the French side as the right play in this fixture.

Things have just changed slightly so while Lyon are getting a start, they are not getting the full goal which means a one goal loss would see half the stake refunded and the other half settled as a loser.

It worries me slightly, but I really do think Lyon have the talent and the confidence to earn a positive result in the First Leg of this Champions League tie, although Barcelona should be too strong over two Legs.

Lyon's recent home form in the Champions League is a worry with a single win from 10 games they have hosted in this competition, but only Juventus have managed to win from the last 6 visitors. Manchester City had massive problems dealing with Lyon in the Group Stage and I do think the confidence of the talented players the French side have can at least put Barcelona under pressure here.

They are also facing a Barcelona team who had won 1 of 7 away Champions League games prior to this season, although they did beat Tottenham Hotspur and PSV Eindhoven on their travels in the Group. The win over PSV was a narrow one though and Barcelona are a team that are vulnerable away from the Nou Camp and I do think Lyon can take advantage of a team that has not been in the best form of late.

Lyon have drawn with Manchester City and beaten Paris Saint-Germain here and scored twice in both games. If they reach that number again I don't think they lose and I am not always convinced about Barcelona away from home despite the obvious talent they have.

Barcelona would likely be very happy with a score draw here and I will select Lyon with the start to get something from the First Leg.


Atletico Madrid v Juventus Pick: Out of all the Last 16 ties in the Champions League I do think the Atletico Madrid versus Juventus one is the toughest to call.

Both teams will play with a similar ambition in this one with neither wanting to give too much away and hoping for magic from their forward players.

Cristiano Ronaldo returns to Madrid for the first time since leaving Real Madrid and I am sure he is going to get a very 'warm' reception from the Atletico fans. He has provided the magic moments to help beat Atletico Madrid a number of times in the Champions League during his time with Real Madrid and looks to be the main Juventus threat on the pitch.

Antoine Griezmann will be looking to spark Atletico Madrid who would love to be playing the Champions League Final in their home Stadium in June.

Neither team has been in outstanding form which does make this tie that much tougher to call, although my lean is that home advantage in the Second Leg will be the critical factor and give Juventus the chance to edge through to the Quarter Final.

First they have to concentrate on this Leg and Juventus have been very good away from home in the Champions League in the last twelve months. During that time they have won at Tottenham Hotspur, Real Madrid, Valencia and Manchester United and so you have to think that Juventus will be feeling good about their chances here.

However Atletico Madrid have a very strong home record with 8 straight home European wins including beating the likes of Roma and Borussia Dortmund in the Champions League. I really am having a hard time separating the teams and this is a tie that could be decided by an outstanding piece of skill to break down two organised defences.

I don't think either will want to give too much away in the First Leg though and backing a draw might be worth a small interest on the day.


Schalke v Manchester City Pick: At this moment the layers are taking no chances with the Manchester City prices to win games of football and that has seen them being asked to cover some big handicaps as short priced favourites.

A week ago Manchester City were the favourites to win here, but they have seen that price shrink after resting key players in the win over Newport County on Saturday. All of those big names are expected back in the Champions League and you can't really argue that the expectation is that Manchester City are going to win this First Leg simply on current form.

Schalke have played better at home, but they are a team struggling in the Bundesliga and the style of play should work to Manchester City's advantage. The home team will know their best chance of upsetting the favourites in this tie is by winning the Home Leg and that should leave spaces for the speed of Raheem Sterling and Leroy Sane to expose.

Manchester City have already won in Hoffenheim in the Group and I suggest this task is perhaps a slightly more 'easier' one for them as long as they focus. You have to respect every team when they are hosting the fixture, but Manchester City have the talent edge and I can see them opening up Schalke whenever the Bundesliga club come forward.

Schalke have lost 3 of their last 4 home games against Premier League opposition all 3 losses came by two or more goals. They have lost 6 home Bundesliga games and 4 of those have come by at least two goal margins, while Manchester City have won 5 of their last 8 away Champions League fixtures and 4 of those have come by two or more goals.

I can't see beyond a Manchester City win here and I think they will do it with room to spare and make the Second Leg little more than a formality to progress to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Liverpool Win & Both Teams to Score @ 3.75 Bet Victor
Lyon + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365
Atletico Madrid-Juventus Draw @ 3.10 Bet Victor
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor