NFL Week 4 Picks 2023 (September 28-October 2)

SEVENTY POINTS!!!

Where else can you start when thinking back to Week 3 than with my Miami Dolphins after an unbelievable Offensive effort as they completely embarrassed the Denver Broncos to move to 3-0.

There is no doubt that this is the most exciting time being a Dolphins fan in what feels like forever- some may say perhaps the most exciting time since the Super Bowl team of 1984 led by Dan Marino in his sophomore year in the League.

Overreaction is going to be a thing every Monday/Tuesday after the NFL Week is completed, but you do have to believe the Miami Dolphins are about as good as any team in the League right now. Unfortunately the Super Bowl is not played right now and there is still a long season to negotiate, while the Dolphins are still an injury to Tua Tagovailoa away from being a good, not great, team.

A big game is coming up for Miami in Week 4 as they visit the Buffalo Bills, where the 2022 season came to an end in the PlayOffs without Tagovailoa at Quarter Back. The Bills also won big this past week and moved up to 2-1 for the season and it does feel like Buffalo and Miami will be fighting it out for the AFC East crown after injury to Aaron Rodgers knocked the Jets out of contention in their current form.

The Kansas City Chiefs will be another contender in the AFC, while you have to believe the Cincinnati Bengals will be turning around their early season results much as they did last season.

At this moment it is clear that I am trying to keep my cool about the Dolphins can do, but it has been a generation since a team as good as this one has been playing in Miami colours.

The likes of the Dolphins, Bills and Chiefs were winning big this week, but there were some upsets around the NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens losing home games to the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts respectively would have made bigger headlines if not for the Dallas Cowboys losing to the Arizona Cardinals.

America's Team will always generate the stories that people want to read and there will be some that once again point to Dak Prescott and believe the Quarter Back is holding back the Cowboys. A poor Interception in the Arizona End Zone as time was ticking down in the Fourth Quarter was massively costly for the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott will have something to prove when facing the New England Patriots and then San Francisco 49ers over the next couple of weeks.

Personally it has felt like the Cowboys could have moved on from the Quarter Back in previous years, but Prescott is also capable of producing a string of starts where he plays flawless Football.

If he can put that together in January you just never know with this Dallas team, although the injury to Trevon Diggs is a big blow in the Secondary.

It also does feel that the loss to the Arizona Cardinals is just one of those early season losses that teams will take and Dallas can certainly bounce back. However, a loss on Sunday in Week 4 will really put some early pressure on the Cowboys who always seem to be a defeat away from a crisis these days.

Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: With Aaron Rodgers leaving the NFC North, the Detroit Lions (2-1) have been the pick to win the Division for most in the 2023 season and little has happened to change the minds of those who have backed them to do so.

A home loss to the Seattle Seahawks was a disappointment, but the Lions have a winning record and it helps they are playing in a Division containing both the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears, two teams who might already be thinking ahead to the 2024 NFL Draft after losing all six combined games.

The biggest challenger to the Detroit Lions winning the Division looks to be Aaron Rodgers' old team, the Green Bay Packers (2-1), who also have a winning record through three weeks of the season. It is not easy to judge the Packers on their first three games considering they have beaten a bad Chicago Bears team, blown a big lead against the Atlanta Falcons in a road loss and then coming back from 17-0 behind to win the home opener against the New Orleans Saints.

Green Bay would have put considerable effort into the win over the Saints and they are now playing this Thursday Night Football game on a short week. A number of key players were missing on Sunday and it is very difficult to imagine that the likes of Jaire Alexander, David Bakhtiari, Aaron Jones or Christian Watson will be ready to go even if this is an important game for the home team.

Even if a player as good as Aaron Jones was available, it might have been a tough ask for him and AJ Dillon to establish the run against this Detroit Defensive Line. The Packers are not going to shy away from the run in a bid to put Jordan Love in the best possible spot at the Quarter Back position, but the Lions should be ready to clamp down on the run up front and force the Packers to try and move the chains through the air.

That is where the absence of Jones will hurt as he can be a threat leaking out of the backfield, although Jordan Love will be glad that he has been given some early protection from the Offensive Line when stepping back to throw. A team missing David Bakhtiari will be tested by the Lions pass rush led by Aiden Hutchinson, who picked up two Sacks in the win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 3.

Pressure up front can just make things that much more difficult for the Green Bay Packers to move the ball consistently and another factor to add is the relatively up and down nature of Jordan Love's early performances. He has yet to put a full game together and had issues against the New Orleans Saints in Week 3 and now Love has to face another tough Defensive unit.

He will still have some successes from what we have seen from the Packers through the first three weeks of the season, but it also should be noted how banged up they are on the Offensive side of the ball.

And the reality is that the Green Bay Packers are going to need a strong full game performance from Jordan Love to stay with the Detroit Lions, who have picked up from where they left off in the 2022 season.

Jared Goff has found a real home in Detroit since arriving here in a trade from the Los Angeles Rams and he could benefit from a bit more support on the ground in this Week 4 game. David Montgomery could miss out again and the Offensive Line picked up another injury in the win over the Atlanta Falcons, but the Lions could benefit from giving Jahmyr Gibbs more touches of the ball in the backfield.

The Packers Defensive Line have played the run pretty well this season, but this has been a long-term weakness of the team and the Lions may use Gibbs to make sure they are not behind the chains. Despite the injuries on the Offensive Line, Detroit have remained pretty good when it comes to pass protection and they have given Jared Goff time to make his plays down the field and may be able to at least play with the knowledge that the Packers pass rush may not have the same kind of impact as they have had for much of the season.

Injuries in the Secondary could be exploited by this Detroit Lions Offensive unit and Jared Goff may be ready to lead the Lions to a fourth straight win over this Divisional rival.

In recent years it has been tough for the Lions to win games at Lambeau Field, but they did in January as a four point underdog. The situation is different this season with the Lions down as the narrow favourites, and that can play a factor in the mindset of teams, but Detroit are not the Division Champions and Dan Campbell will be looking for his team to put a statement win on the board.

They did that as a big underdog in Week 1 at the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Lions look much healthier than the Green Bay Packers for this short week meeting and that can help Detroit win and cover on the road.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons Pick: The annual game in London is going to be a little different for the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2) as they will be playing here twice in a row.

The Jaguars have to be hoping that the change in venue, and country, can help them bounce back after dropping back to back games against the Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans. The loss to the Texans was very disappointing, but Jacksonville will feel they only have themselves to blame and they need to get back on the horse in Week 4.

They are facing the Atlanta Falcons (2-1) who also suffered a loss in Week 3 against the Detroit Lions to end their unbeaten start to the season.

Unlike the Jaguars, the Atlanta Falcons will be heading back to the United States following this game and they will be hoping the Offense can get back on track after a difficult outing against the Lions. The problem for the Falcons is that they don't seem to match up that well with the Jaguars on this side of the ball and there could be pressure on Desmond Ridder to make the plays to keep the chains moving.

The sophomore Quarter Back has really been a game manager in his time at the helm for the Atlanta Falcons and Ridder has been able to rely on the Offensive Line and the strong running game they can put on the field. A problem develops when the Falcons are not able to establish the run, as we saw in the loss to the Lions, and this could be another challenging day for them despite the talent in the backfield.

Jacksonville's Defensive Line have been pretty good at containing the run up front and they will be focused on locking down Bijan Robinson and making sure the Falcons are relying on Desmond Ridder to move the chains with his arm.

The Quarter Back has some big time Receiving options and this might be a good chance for Ridder to have a strong day considering the issues that the Jaguars have in the Secondary. He might find himself with a bit more time in the pocket despite being harassed all day by the Lions pass rush last week and that is because Jacksonville have yet to really find the pressure they would have liked up front.

Desmond Ridder will need to have a strong outing, although the Falcons are likely to be given a chance by their Defense, which has been playing well for much of the season.

The Falcons might struggle to get the run going, but Jacksonville should have a chance to establish Travis Etienne and that will be important for the entire team. They will be given a chance to find the Offensive balance that can keep the Falcons guessing about what is coming and establishing the run just makes things a bit easier for Trevor Lawrence.

This is a bounce back spot for Lawrence who finished with a single Touchdown pass and an Interception in the Week 3 loss to the Houston Texans at home. Running the ball will open up play-action, but Trevor Lawrence is expected to have time in the pocket and there is no doubting the quality that Jacksonville have brought in to surround their Quarter Back.

Atlanta's Secondary have played well, but this is a revenge spot for Calvin Ridley against his former team and he is backed up by Evan Engram and Christian Kirk. With time in the pocket, Trevor Lawrence is expected to find those Receivers for some big gains.

You cannot discount the experience that the Jaguars have in playing these London games compared to most others, although they have lost three of their last four games played in the Great Britain Capital. All three of the losses have been at Wembley Stadium, where this Week 4 game will be played, but the Jacksonville Jaguars can bounce back from consecutive losses against the Falcons.

It might be a lower scoring game where the edge has to be with Trevor Lawrence to make one or two more plays compared with Desmond Ridder.

Last weekend continued Jacksonville's poor record as a home favourite and this will feel like a home game in London. However, they can use the advantage at the Quarter Back position to do just enough to cover this number before preparing to 'host' the Buffalo Bills in Week 5 at Tottenham Hotspur.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Losses for the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Commanders (2-1) have left the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) all on their own as an unbeaten team in the NFC East. The defending NFC Champions are beginning to look a bit more like the team that reached the Super Bowl last season and they were comfortable winners on the road at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

They had some flu issues inside the camp, but the Eagles have had a few more days to recover from the illness and the Eagles fans would have likely circled this game against this Divisional rival.

It was the Washington Commanders who were the first team to beat the Philadelphia Eagles who had been 8-0 at the time.

That result also means Washington have won two of their last three visits to Philadelphia, but this Eagles team looks very strong at all levels.

The game plan should be pretty clear for the Eagles when they have the fall and that will be to pound the run against the Commanders Defensive Line which has been allowing 4.8 yards per carry early in the season. There is no doubting the power of the Philadelphia Offensive Line and Jalen Hurts is also capable of making plays with his legs from the Quarter Back position.

Being in front of the chains should help the Eagles in pass protection, which has been a surprising vulnerability early in the season. For a long time the Commanders have been able to send a strong pass rush onto the field, but it will be hard to get into the backfield if the Eagles are operating in short down and distance more often than not, while Jalen Hurts is going to be throwing to the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith who are capable of beating opponents all across the field.

The expectation has to be that the Eagles will be able to move the ball effectively in this one and that is going to put pressure on the Washington Commanders who are coming into Week 4 off a blowout loss at home to the Buffalo Bills. The wins over Arizona and Denver do not look that good when you think of how good those two opponents have looked and Philadelphia are definitely more Buffalo than Denver.

Playing from behind is going to be tough for Washington and falling two scores behind would make it very hard for Sam Howell to bounce back after being roughed about by the Bills last week. The Commanders do not want Howell to be in a position where he needs to throw too many times, but Washington may struggle to establish the run against the Philadelphia Defensive Line and that means the Quarter Back will have to perhaps do more than the road team would like.

Sam Howell may find some holes to exploit in the Eagles Secondary, but he will need to avoid being in third and long situations. Last week he was not able to get away from the Buffalo pass rush and the Eagles are capable of cracking into the backfield if the Commanders Offensive Line has not sorted out their problems.

The Commanders have given up 19 Sacks already this season and Sam Howell will have a tough time allowing plays to develop if the Line is breaking down around him.

Washington do have a couple of quality Receivers who will find some routes to get open, but it is hard to imagine the Commanders having a lot of time Offensively and Sam Howell could be forced into a couple of mistakes. Interceptions were a major issue against the best Defensive unit that Sam Howell faced last week and Philadelphia might be able to get in front of some of the throws.

Backing the underdog has been very rewarding in this Divisional Series in recent times, but the Eagles have looked a strong team as they build the chemistry between the new Offensive Co-Ordinator and Jalen Hurts.

The revenge factor for the home loss in 2022 could be at play here- Washington covered as an 11 point underdog in winning outright at the Eagles last year, but this time it feels like Philadelphia can make enough plays on the Defensive side of the ball to give their Offense a chance to cover the spread set.

Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills Pick: An almost historic performance from the Miami Dolphins (3-0) in Week 3 of the regular season saw them put up 70 points against the Denver Broncos and just three points short of matching the NFL record. Only Mike McDaniels decision to take a knee rather than kick a Field Goal ended the humiliating day in the office for the Broncos and there are many out there who are now considering the Miami Dolphins as the best team in the NFL.

You have to credit the team for the three wins secured and the Dolphins are certainly incredibly dangerous and creative Offensively, but this is a tough test for them against the Buffalo Bills (2-1), the recent dominant team in the AFC East.

This is a big rivalry game and the Miami Dolphins should be plenty motivated as they look to earn some revenge for the PlayOff loss to the Bills last season. That was in a game where Tua Tagovailoa was injured and missing, while the backup Teddy Bridgewater was also out injured which meant needing to use Skylar Thompson at Quarter Back.

Even then, the Miami Dolphins came closer than expected to upsetting the Buffalo Bills in a 3 point loss and they were also beaten by just 3 points in the regular season. Tua Tagovailoa was able to play in the regular season defeat in this Stadium and the Miami Dolphins will be back to full strength in the Receiving position with Jayden Waddle out of concussion protocol.

A key to the Dolphins early season success is the fact they are getting a lot more out of the running game and that has allowed the Dolphins to create some very good plays for their Quarter Back. The speed of the team makes them very dangerous, but Miami cannot be expected to pile up the points as they did against Denver every time they step out on the field.

The Broncos have a Defense that has been struggling, but in Week 4 the Dolphins have to face a Buffalo Defensive unit that is playing at a very high level.

One area that may be of concern is stopping the run and the Bills could have issues with this Miami Offensive Line and their current level of play. Buffalo have given up an average of 110 yards per game on the ground, but the concern will be that those have been picked up at 5.9 yards per carry.

The Bills cannot sell out to stop the run considering the quality we have seen from the Miami passing game, but Buffalo will believe in their Secondary and the ability to at least try and slow down Jayden Waddle and Tyreek Hill. Both Receivers have speed and intelligence to find the soft spots in the coverage, but Miami will have to make sure they don't move away from the run in order to keep Tua Tagovailoa from having the Bills pass rush get into his face.

Miami fans will believe in the Offensive power of the team, but it could be tough to pile up the numbers as they have been. You also have to consider the few issues Miami had when playing the New England Patriots, the best Defensive unit faced this season, and Buffalo will certainly believe they can match Miami on the other side of the ball too.

Vic Fangio has made an early impact with the Miami Defense, but he is going to be tested by Josh Allen and the Buffalo Offense, especially as the Quarter Back has dominated the Dolphins since being Drafted by the Bills. Like Miami, Buffalo will look to use the run to keep the high-powered opponents on the sidelines and James Cook will be able to put up some solid numbers behind this Offensive Line.

The Dolphins are giving up 4.6 yards per carry this season and will also have to account for the running ability of Josh Allen out of the Quarter Back position.

Establishing the run is going to be a key part of the game plan for the Bills as they look to control the clock and it will ease the pass rush that Miami have been able to generate. It will also allow Josh Allen to make quicker passes and the Quarter Back can make the plays to keep the First Downs ticking over and give the Bills every chance of winning this big game.

Miami covered in all three games against Buffalo in the 2022 season, but this is the shortest line between the teams in a long time, which just underlines the improvement being made by the Dolphins.

Wins at Los Angeles Chargers and New England have backed up those improved levels considering Miami lost at both Stadiums last season. However, Buffalo have been incredibly strong at home in recent years and Sean McDermott and his team will feel they are being overshadowed after what the Dolphins did in Week 3, which will not sit right for the three time defending AFC East Champions.

The public look to be behind my Miami Dolphins, but the Buffalo Defensive unit might just be able to slow down the Offense for long enough to allow Josh Allen to make some late plays to help the Bills win this one at home.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Coral (1 Unit)

Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Indianapolis Colts + 1 Point @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

New England Patriots + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Kansas City Chiefs - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2020 (October 1st)

Wednesday proved to be as disappointing as Tuesday was productive and I am going to take it as I took the previous day and accept how things went and move forward.

There are going to be some ups and downs over the two weeks of a Grand Slam event, but I am looking for better through the remainder of the week.

However, I am not sure how many of these matches are going to be played day by day with some poor weather forecast and only a single court with a roof that can keep things ticking along. It will almost certainly be a delayed start for those scheduled on the outside courts, but the hope is that the showers will pass relatively quickly and lead to plenty of play later in the day.

Novak Djokovic - 10.5 games v Ricardas Berankis: It is another potentially damp day in Paris, but that is not going to affect the players who have been scheduled to play on the number one court at Roland Garros. Unsurprisingly the big names are kept reserved for this court and Novak Djokovic will be looking to come out and match the kind of performance he produced in the First Round and also continue to show that he is playing as well as Rafael Nadal who was a dominant Second Round winner on Wednesday.

The World Number 1 dropped just five games in the First Round win over Mikael Ymer and Novak Djokovic remains unbeaten on the court, even if he does have that default loss on his record from the US Open. That defeat should be fuelling Djokovic and his win in Rome shows he is ready to win in conditions that may be more familiar to him than many others playing in Paris this year.

It certainly won't bother Novak Djokovic as much as Rafael Nadal that the temperatures are cooler and the ball and surface is making the court feel heavier than usual. He is a very strong defender and it is going to be very difficult for players to be able to hit through him on this surface and I would back Novak Djokovic to get the better of the long rallies against most players on the Tour.

That shouldn't be a controversial statement and Djokovic has to like the match up in the Second Round when he takes on Ricardas Berankis. The Lithuanian was something of an upset winner in the First Round, but Berankis has long struggled to produce his best tennis on the clay courts and I do think his game is going to be a comfortable one for Novak Djokovic to deal with.

These two did play a competitive match in the Masters event held in New York prior to the US Open beginning, but that surface will have aided Berankis a lot more than this one will. Even under the roof I do think it will be tough conditions for the underdog and his losses at Roland Garros in recent years have been remarkably one-sided.

In his last three defeats at the French Open, Ricardas Berankis has won just fourteen games combined so it is difficult to imagine him winning seven in this one. When he played Novak Djokovic at the US Open in 2013, Berankis won just five games as he was dominated and the Serb is arguably playing at a much higher level now.

There could be some really fun moments in this one as a talented Berankis takes risks, but Novak Djokovic should be fairly comfortable when it is all said and done and can cover this number in his Second Round win.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Pablo Cuevas: While it is obviously better to still be in a tournament than out of it, Stefanos Tsitsipas will be a little annoyed that he was forced to dig deep and come from 2-0 down to win in the First Round. You can't win a Grand Slam at this stage of an event, but you don't want to put too many miles into the body or the mind by having to fight tooth and nail in the early Rounds when the competition is supposedly at its weakest.

The draw could have been kinder to Tsitsipas having to take on a clay court specialist in the First Round and now having to take on another in the Second Round. At least the First Round win didn't see him spending a ridiculous amount of time on the court and that does at least give the young Greek star the chance to have recovered in time for this one.

He did win reach the Final in Hamburg last week so Stefanos Tsitsipas has not had a lot of rest over the last few days which could add up the further he goes at the French Open and so it is important for him to make a much stronger start to this match. Stefanos Tsitsipas has remained one of the stronger clay court players out there and I do think the fact he managed to dig deep and win in the First Round will help him going forward.

Pablo Cuevas needed almost an hour less than Tsitsipas to move through to the Second Round and he has long played his best tennis on the clay courts. That makes him dangerous, and he has had his best results at Roland Garros when it comes to the four Grand Slams, but stunningly he has never been beyond the Third Round here.

A couple of solid runs in warm up events on the clay will help Cuevas believe he can cause an upset in the current conditions in Paris, but you can't ignore the fact there has been a slight decline in his numbers on the clay in each of the last couple of years. He has also tended to play his best clay court tennis in his own continent rather than Europe and the head to head makes for tough reading for him too.

Their numbers on the clay courts have been similar in 2020, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has beaten the veteran three times out of three and the last two have come on the clay courts. One of those victories came in Hamburg last week while Tsitsipas has a real advantage when it comes to the numbers having held serve in 95% of service games played against Pablo Cuevas on the clay compared with 81% for the latter.

The performance in the First Round has to be a concern, but I think we will see a much better one from Stefanos Tsitsipas on Thursday in the Second Round. The roof may be needed, but I think Tsitsipas can break down the Pablo Cuevas game over the best of three set format and the bigger serve may produce the 'easier' holds even in conditions where the return players do have a real edge.

Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 sets v Albert Ramos: An upset win in the First Round may have opened up the draw for Marton Fucsovics, but he has to avoid falling victim of one of his own in the Second Round. It will be a long shot for Fucsovics to reach the Quarter Final out of a very difficult part of the draw, but he can reach the second week as long as he remains focused on his tennis.

The Hungarian has perhaps not been at his best on the clay courts, but he is consistent enough to be a threat. I was a little concerned by the lack of preparation tournaments taken in by Fucsovics before the French Open began, but his win over Daniil Medvedev in four sets shows how capable he is on the surface even if the higher Ranked and more well-known name is not a great player on the red dirt.

Last season Marton Fucsovics finished with a losing record on the clay courts, but his numbers were pretty solid and this should be a match up that he should be relatively comfortable dealing with.

Albert Ramos is clearly very comfortable on the clay courts and his straight sets win over Adrian Mannarino in the First Round will have given him a boost. The Spaniard had lost all three matches played on the clay courts in the last month preparing for the French Open and Albert Ramos had only won a single set in that time, so the win over Mannarino would have been most welcome.

The numbers have been largely disappointing for Ramos on the clay courts in 2020 and the losses ahead of the French Open would have hurt. I do think the conditions won't be an issue for someone as comfortable on the clay courts as the Spaniard is, but I also think his serve is one that can be attacked and especially by someone like Marton Fucsovics who has decent returning numbers on this surface in recent seasons.

Albert Ramos does lead the head to to head 3-2 which becomes 3-1 when we look at solely their previous clay court meetings, but Marton Fucsovics deserved to win the last of those which would have tied things up. The Hungarian missed too many break points that day in a three set defeat, but I think he can be a little more clinical when those chances are presented on a slower surface and I think he is able to move through to the Third Round in three or four sets.

Jiri Vesely-Karen Khachanov over 35.5 games: You would hope that Karen Khachanov is still focusing on putting together a strong run at Roland Garros rather than getting into social media arguments with his fellow players who are not performing in Paris. The Russian has got into it with Nick Kyrgios, who is never concerned about speaking his mind, but he has to be focused on matters on the court when taking on Jiri Vesely in the Second Round.

Both players came through relatively comfortably in the First Round and that should mean we have two confident players, although I do believe that both Vesely and Khachanov would have preferred to be playing in slightly faster conditions. Both do possess a big first serve which can set up some easier points, but I think the aggressive nature of both players will lead to more mistakes as they struggle to generate the pace to hit through the court.

Out of the two players it is the underdog Jiri Vesely who has produced the more consistent results on the clay courts in the lead up to the French Open. The lefty has a solid game which should have perhaps led to a much stronger career to this point, but Vesely looks to be on the right path again with his World Ranking improving.

The raw numbers have looked pretty good for the Czech player, but you do have to say that the majority of the players he has been facing in recent weeks have been lower down the World Ranking list. This time he has to take on a player who is a former top 10 player and one who is still entrenched in the top 20 and that increase is level is going to be a challenge for Jiri Vesely.

Karen Khachanov is a solid enough clay court player, but he is not amongst the best on the surface and I think that will offer some encouragement to Jiri Vesely. The Russian was just 1-2 in preparation matches for the French Open on the clay courts and he was simply not serving as well as he would have liked in those matches, although the vulnerabilities may not be exposed by someone like Vesely.

Add in the fact that Khachanov has not been the most effective returner on the clay courts and I do think the underdog will cause problems here. Winning the match outright is going to be a huge challenge, but I do think Jiri Vesely can win a set and maybe more if he is serving as well as he can.

If this match goes four sets I would be disappointed if the total games market is not covered even though you do tend to get a lot more one-sided sets on the clay courts which can hinder that process. In this one I think both Jiri Vesely and Karen Khachanov could struggle with their return at times and so I will be looking for four long sets, at least, to develop.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 10.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Marton Fucsovics - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jiri Vesely-Karen Khachanov Over 35.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cristian Garin - 7.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Thiago Monteiro - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jan-Lennard Struff - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Andrey Rublev - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sofia Kenin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Alison Van Uytvanck - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Petra Martic.- 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2019 (October 1-3)

Match Day 2 of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage takes centre stage during the week and I am looking to open up October in the same fashion in which September ended.

It was a much stronger month than August, and it was good to wipe out the poor first month of the 2019/20 season. I do want to kick on now and really start producing some strong returns to move forward and the few selections during this week will hopefully begin to do that.


I had wrote a short piece about Manchester United prior to their League Cup win over Rochdale which can be read here. They have an important game in the Europa League this week and a win would mean Manchester United can start thinking about Qualifying for the Last 32 with a couple of games to spare and that is important for a thin squad that will need some rest ahead of the busy December period that all English clubs face.


Onto the Champions League Picks from Match Day 2 and the update to the season totals below.


Real Madrid v Club Brugge Pick: You don't want to completely rule out Club Brugge causing problems for Real Madrid considering how they played in the Group Stage of the Champions League twelve months ago. Atletico Madrid needed late goals to see them off and Borussia Dortmund had to settle for a draw with them at home, while Real Madrid seem to be playing with some vulnerable confidence at the moment.

Even then it is hard to see Real Madrid doing anything but bouncing back after the 3-0 defeat in Paris on Match Day 1. They have looked very good in the League since that defeat to move to the top of the Spanish top flight, and Real Madrid have shown some resiliency with 3 clean sheets in a row.

The return of Nacho and Sergio Ramos will help and I do think Real Madrid are very dangerous at home where they are looking to snap a run of consecutive Champions League defeats. The side have scored at least twice in their last couple of wins here overall and Real Madrid should be able to get on the front foot against Club Brugge who were beaten heavily at Salzburg in the Europa League Last 32 last season.

Club Brugge will be playing with the belief of a team that is unbeaten in 14 games to open the 2019/20 season, but that may not be enough. They can create chances here with the spaces Real Madrid tend to leave behind when getting forward, but I am not sure it will be enough to really challenge a team who want to get this Group back on the right track.

Last season late goals saw Atletico Madrid pull clear of Club Brugge and I think Real Madrid will match that margin of victory.


Galatasaray v Paris Saint-Germain Pick: I really did fancy Paris Saint-Germain to get the better of Real Madrid on Match Day 1 of the Champions League Group Stage, but injuries to the front three tempered by enthusiasm for them. It ultimately proved to be little problem for the French Champions who deservedly won on the day and Paris Saint-Germain have to be looking to secure a Last 16 place as soon as possible.

Wins over Galatasaray and then in the double header with Club Brugge over the next month will put Paris Saint-Germain through to the Last 16 and I do think they are capable of doing that.

Both away games will be difficult beginning with this trip to Istanbul, but Paris Saint-Germain have won 7 of their 12 away Champions League Group games and they have also won back to back away games in the competition overall at Crvena Zvezda and Manchester United.

Playing in Istanbul is rarely an easy task for any team in European Football and Galatasaray are unbeaten in 14 at home in all competitions. That has to be respected, but both Porto and Benfica won here in the Champions League and Europa League respectively last season and this Paris Saint-Germain team are stronger than those two even without Neymar and Edinson Cavani.

This won't always be easy for Paris Saint-Germain, but they have been defending well enough in recent away games to lay the foundation for success here. The chances created in Bordeaux is encouraging even if they have been lacking goals away from home and I think there is enough here to back Paris Saint-Germain to record a good looking win on the night and earn their third away win in a row in the Champions League.


Manchester City v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: The layers are not going to be offering anything too short in terms of a margin of victory for Manchester City in this fixture and I am not surprised when you think of the amount of goals the English Champions have been scoring. It is very difficult to see how Dinamo Zagreb are going to keep it competitive against a team who have scored four or more goals in 3 of their last 4 home Champions League games.

The win over Atalanta will make Dinamo Zagreb believe, but that was at home and this is a club who have lost 12 away games in a row in the Champions League Group Stage. A lot of those defeats have been by wide margins and I think Manchester City have rested enough big name players to believe they are going to produce a very strong win in this one.

It is a big Asian Handicap though and it will need a three goal margin of victory to secure a full payout, but I would be surprised if Manchester City did not win by that margin. The defensive problems are a concern as one goal for the visitors would make it very difficult to see how Manchester City can cover the number, but I think Dinamo Zagreb will soon see this as a damage limitation exercise.

Fast starts have been common for Manchester City since the 3-2 defeat to Norwich City and they have scored within 25 minutes in each of the four wins since then. Another one would set them up for a big win on Tuesday and put Manchester City in a very strong position to Qualify and win this Group before the end of November.

I think Dinamo Zagreb will find their 4-0 win over Atalanta on Match Day 1 has not really prepared them for a test like this and Manchester City can win easily enough on the day.


Barcelona v Inter Milan Pick: It sounds like Barcelona will have some attacking players back in contention for a starting spot for the Match Day 2 game in the Champions League, although Lionel Messi is a doubt.

Both Barcelona and Inter Milan drew their opening Champions League games which has increased the importance of this one as they look to get going in a difficult looking Group. The Barcelona draw in Dortmund certainly looks more positive than the home draw Inter Milan had with Slavia Prague and I do think the Italian club are built for success domestically and perhaps not in the European competitions.

Inter Milan appointed Antonio Conte to break the Juventus domination of Serie A and the manager has had his best successes in domestic competitions. He has struggled for an impact in the Champions League and Inter Milan looked short of ideas in their home draw with Slavia Prague.

Now they have to face a Barcelona team that remain very strong at home and who have won 29 of 32 games at the Nou Camp in the Champions League. A Lionel Messi-less Barcelona beat Inter Milan 2-0 here last season and I think they can do the same on Wednesday on Match Day 2 of the Group Stage this time around too.

Barcelona have been scoring plenty of goals at home and they should be able to break down an Inter Milan team who do have questions to answer at the back. The Italian side will head to Spain with some confidence from their League form and they do have attacking players to make a difference, but Barcelona should be too strong on the day.

Backing the home team to cover the Asian Handicap is the selection.


Lille v Chelsea Pick: Both Lille and Chelsea were beaten on Match Day 1 of the Champions League which means this could be a vital game for both in their bids to get Qualification to the Last 16 back on track.

This should be a good match with both Lille and Chelsea capable of playing impressive attacking football while perhaps not looking as secure at the back as they would like.

Chelsea have conceded at least twice in every away game played under Frank Lampard and Lille have managed two or more goals in 7 of their last 8 home games going back to last season. All four played this season have seen Lille hit that mark so they will feel they can get hurt their visitors on Match Day 2.

On the other side Chelsea have scored eight goals in their last couple of away games and played well on their travels in the Europa League last season. The Blues have scored at least three goals in their last 2 away games at Norwich City and Wolves, and I do think they can challenge a Lille team who won't have faced too many teams of the quality of Chelsea on a regular basis.

Both teams will feel they can get on the scoreboard here and the importance of the three points should help encourage an attacking and expansive game. Backing at least three goals to be shared out is the call here.


Liverpool v Salzburg Pick: This has the makings of a really good Champions League game with the approach that both Liverpool and Salzburg will take to the game.

While many teams will head to Anfield and look to be tight and well organised defensively, Salzburg have shown in the last couple of years in the Europa League that they are willing to take chances with their attacking play. Last season they were beaten 3-0 in Naples in the Europa League Last 16, but Salzburg created plenty of good chances of their own and they must recognise that the Liverpool defence is not playing as well as it was last season.

The absence of Alisson does leave Liverpool a little vulnerable at the back, but attacking this team at Anfield can expose defences to the much vaunted front three who should all be starting for the home team. Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah have the perfect blend of pace and creativity in the final third and I do expect they will be in a position to hurt Salzburg in this one too.

Liverpool have been very strong at Anfield and 10 of their last 11 here have ended with wins by two or more goals. They also have won 7 of their last 8 at home in the Champions League and I do think the defeat in Napoli on Match Day 1 will focus the players for a big performance here.

I would not be surprised if Salzburg score here, but I think their attacking intent will leave them open to the home team too. It could be an enjoyable game of football for the neutrals when two attacking teams take the field, but at the end of the fixture I would expect Liverpool have won by a good margin.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Barcelona - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lille-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)

September 2019/20: 13-9-1, + 8.82 Units (46 Units Staked, + 19.17% Yield)
August 2019/20: 14-17-2, - 8.78 Units (64 Units Staked, - 13.72% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (October 1st)

The 2018 Tennis season may be heading into the final six weeks of the Tour, but there are still some very big tournaments to be played.

This week the events in Tokyo and Beijing have put some very good fields together and it is going to be another interesting week on the Tour.

On Monday I have researched a number of selections from the tournaments being played, and you can see 'MY PICKS' below.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2017 (September 30-October 1)

Over the last couple of days we have heard about the international squads that have been announced for the final set of World Cup Qualifiers where the majority of the nations making up the Finals in Russia next summer will be confirmed.

In November there will still be some Play Off ties to be completed, but for most this will be the end of a fourteen month Qualifying run to get to the World Cup Finals. Most of the big nations are set to confirm their places over the next ten days or so, but there will be some like Italy and Portugal and perhaps even the Netherlands who are waiting for their Play Off ties to be drawn.

At the Euro 2016 Finals, Great Britain and Ireland were represented by all the nations around these parts except Scotland, but Russia may be a little more bare. Northern Ireland, Wales, Republic of Ireland and Scotland may all need Play Off berths at the very best this time around and even then there is no guarantee they won't draw one of the tougher nations I have mentioned.

England are almost there though and a win next Thursday over Slovenia will confirm the place in Russia even if the hype for the success of the national team is not what it once was.


The World Cup Qualifiers are for another day though and the focus at the moment is on the final round of domestic fixtures which take place this weekend. There is the big Premier League game between Chelsea and Manchester City which comes on Saturday afternoon and that is the kind of fixture which will give people a chance to determine who they 'fancy' for the title, even at this early stage of the season.

Sergio Aguero won't be playing in that fixture after the news that he had been riding in a taxi which had a crash in Amsterdam. A broken rib has been confirmed, but it will be interesting to see how long Aguero is out for considering how important he has seemingly become for Pep Guardiola and Manchester City.

I might not be a City fan, but I do respect Aguero so thankfully the incident wasn't any worse than what has come out.


The picks will be focused on the Premier League alone this weekend and hopefully it will be a good end to the month.


Huddersfield Town v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The first live game of the Premier League weekend is an interesting one and we are likely to learn plenty about what Huddersfield Town are capable of achieving this season. Their early fixture list has not been the most taxing considering Huddersfield Town have not played a team who finished in the top seven, but this weekend they take on an in-form Tottenham Hotspur.

Beating those in the top seven won't be where Huddersfield Town find the points to help them avoid relegation, but David Wagner will want his players to show they can compete at this level. The next month sees Huddersfield Town's fixtures really pick up in terms of strength of opponent and losing on Saturday may knock some of the belief from the players.

Much is based on a solid defensive foundation and pressing from the front and Huddersfield Town have been playing better at home than on their travels. That defence is going to be tested by a Tottenham Hotspur team who will likely have Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen back alongside Harry Kane this weekend.

Tottenham Hotspur have scored at least twice in all 4 away games played this season and they have also scored at least three times in 5 of their last 6 including the last 3 in succession. That is serious firepower being produced and I think Tottenham Hotspur will be able to break down a tough Huddersfield Town team who have yet to face quality of this standard in their early Premier League games.

Goals have been a problem for Huddersfield Town and that is another reason, along with Tottenham Hotspur's strong away form, which makes me believe the North London club can cover the Asian Handicap here.

All credit has to be given to Huddersfield Town for the start made to the 2017/18 season, but this feels like a fixture that Tottenham Hotspur should be capable of winning on current form. With the goals they have been scoring, I expect the return of Alli and Eriksen to see Tottenham Hotspur create enough chances to win this one and I think Huddersfield Town may struggle to keep up with their lack of goals.


Bournemouth v Leicester City Pick: When you think of the way Bournemouth and Leicester City approach their football, it may be something of a surprise that they have been involved in fixtures against one another which have tended to be very tight.

That may have something to do with the fact that both clubs would view the other as one they need to finish above in their bid to avoid relegation to the Championship and so risks are avoided. It may be a simplistic way to look at things with Bournemouth and Leicester City both having expectations of finishing much higher than 17th in the League table, but this fixture is also coming at a time where both have struggled.

I do think Leicester City have not been helped by a very difficult opening set of fixtures, while Eddie Howe at Bournemouth has to be suggesting the same thing. With a bit more luck they would have had more points on the board and I do think this will be a competitive fixture on Saturday.

There is plenty of attacking talent who should take the field to make it a more entertaining one in terms of goals than we have seen over the last couple of years. All 4 Premier League games between Bournemouth and Leicester City have ended with two or fewer goals in that time, but neither team looks capable of too many clean sheets at the moment.

Josh King, Jermain Defoe, Jamie Vardy and Riyad Mahrez all have ability to change matches in the final third and I think the two defences will be tested.

Bournemouth have yet to keep a clean sheet this season in the Premier League and have conceded at least once in each of their last 5 home League games. Leicester City's sole clean sheet came against Brighton at home, but they have had just 1 in their last 17 away games in all competitions and I wouldn't be surprised if both teams score in this one.

Whether someone is capable of finding a winner is harder to judge as the point may be seen as a positive result on current form, but Bournemouth will push and that should mean Leicester City have their chances on the counter attack too. I will look for these teams to find a little more composure in the final third in this game than they have in recent matches against one another and will look for three goals to be shared out on the day.


Manchester United v Crystal Palace Pick: The Manchester United credentials are going to be tested in between the next couple of international breaks when they face Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea in the Premier League and also Benfica in the Champions League. However the focus is to take some momentum into the international break upcoming by beating Crystal Palace and Manchester United look set to do that.

While the home team are settled and look focused to overcome injuries they are dealing with, Crystal Palace have yet to really fire under Roy Hodgson. Injuries to Wilfried Zaha and Christian Benteke are a huge blow for a side that have been lacking goals and now they face a Manchester United team who have been used to shutting teams out at Old Trafford.

It is hard to imagine that changing here despite Crystal Palace creating some chances at Manchester City last weekend. Even the likely absence of Phil Jones should not be a real problem for Manchester United in this fixture with Benteke out of action and I would imagine the majority of the attacking play with be done by the home team.

At the moment Crystal Palace look like a team who are lacking belief in what they are doing and they capitulated once they conceded at Manchester City last weekend. Something similar could happen here with Anthony Martial, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Marcus Rashford and Romelu Lukaku likely to be employed in the final third.

All of those players have been in fine form for Manchester United and this is a fixture they have been comfortable in in recent years. They have beaten Crystal Palace the last 4 times they have visited Old Trafford and 3 of those wins have come by a couple of goals which should be the least Manchester United get out of this.

I think it may end up being a little more comfortable than that if Manchester United can break through in the first half. They are returning from a long trip from Russia and perhaps would have had a little more time to prepare, but it was a good trip to Moscow and I expect Manchester United fire in the final third in this fixture.

Backing Manchester United to cover the Asian Handicap should at least return the stake if they win by a couple of goals, but I think Manchester United are too good for an unconfident Crystal Palace team and expect the margin to be a little wider.


West Brom v Watford Pick: The exciting football that West Brom were playing at times last season looks to be well behind them now and this is a team that once again will look to be tough to beat and exploit their limited chances when going forward.

That is a harsh assessment when you think how well they did start in the 2-0 loss to Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium on Monday night, but West Brom have struggled for goals which is holding them back. Defensively they remain a force, but September has been a difficult month for Tony Pulis who may begin to feel some pressure from the stands.

Now they face a tough test in Watford who have won all 3 away Premier League games this season and scored at least twice in each game. You would have to think it would be very difficult for West Brom to match their visitors if that trend continues, but Pulis will feel his team are defensively more sound than Bournemouth, Southampton and Swansea City even if many would dispute that statement.

Even with that in mind, Watford have shown defensive strength under Silva outside of that game with Manchester City and they will feel they can get a result here. They won't give much away even if losing Nathaniel Chalobah to an injury is a big blow for the squad, and this does feel like a game where the two teams will perhaps cancel one another out.

I did consider backing Watford with the start on the Asian Handicap, but I think West Brom have been tough to play at The Hawthorns and it took a late goal to help Watford win at Swansea City last weekend. This one is not likely to feature a lot of goals, as has been seen from the layers prices, and I will have a small interest in the teams sharing the points and going into the international break with an extra point on the board in the Premier League.


West Ham United v Swansea City Pick: If you take the first twenty minutes and the final twenty minutes of West Ham United's game against Tottenham Hotspur last weekend, you would have been impressed with some of the performances produced. However they were really poor between those times which saw them go down 0-3 before a late fightback and it is hard to know exactly what to expect from West Ham United on a game by game basis.

They have been better at the London Stadium in recent games going back to the end of last season, and the West Ham United losses to Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur have come against the better teams in the Premier League. The Hammers did beat Huddersfield Town 2-0 at home earlier this month and they have had a strong record against Swansea City which will give them confidence.

West Ham United played well enough at times to believe they have every chance of winning this fixture, but they have to give Swansea City full respect going into this weekend.

Paul Clement has made Swansea City tougher to play against away from home and that has shown up with clean sheets in each of their 3 away League games this season. That includes a goalless draw at Wembley Stadium against Tottenham Hotspur and Swansea City had the same result at St Mary's against Southampton.

I think they will look to make things hard for West Ham United, but the home team have been better at the London Stadium and I think that may give them the slight edge. I can't have more than the minimum unit on West Ham United simply because of how well Swansea City have been playing on their travels, but I think The Hammers may have the slight edge and a play can be made on them here.


Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: If you gave most people the opportunity to pick three teams as potential Premier League winners, you have to think Manchester City, Manchester United and Chelsea would be the names you hear the most. Two of those teams meet at Stamford Bridge on Saturday afternoon in a game that will be much anticipated by all football fans in England.

Both Antonio Conte and Pep Guardiola will be very happy with the form their teams have shown coming into this weekend.

Chelsea are off arguably the best English club performance away from home in the Champions League for a long time as they were deserved winners over Atletico Madrid on Wednesday. They came from behind that day to show the belief and determination this group of players have, while the return of Eden Hazard and the production from Alvaro Morata is huge for The Blues.

The home team will be confident, but so will Manchester City who have won 7 straight games in all competitions and have been scoring at a rate that has to be intimidating to any club they face. The attacking options Guardiola has means Manchester City can run over any team they face if at their best, but there are still some questions for them to answer at the back.

Teams have had chances against them and Chelsea are unlikely to be as generous with the opportunities being missed that the likes of Watford, Crystal Palace and Shakhtar Donetsk have created.

On the other hand Manchester City will create chances as they did in both games against Chelsea in the League last season and this has all the makings of a classic Premier League encounter, and certainly the most important of the season to date.

Both will want to lay down a marker for the season and I am not sure they will be cancelling one another out as the styles of football seem to mesh well. While Manchester City will want to dominate possession, Chelsea will be happy to hit them on the break with the pace they have in the final third and so an entertaining game looks to be in the making.

I was very tempted to back Chelsea to win considering how well they have played at Stamford Bridge over the last twelve months. It won't be often they will be set as the home underdog and I think out of principle that is a price that I feel can't be ignored.

However this Manchester City team have been playing really well of late and might feel they owe Chelsea one having perhaps been the better team in both League games they lost last season. That is enough to make me step back from backing Chelsea, but instead focusing on another fixture between these clubs ending with at least three goals shared out.

Both League games last season did that with both teams scoring in each of those two games, and the attacking talent on show is likely to have the edge over the defensive elements. Chelsea do look a little more solid at the back, but stopping this Manchester City team scoring won't be easy, and instead it may be the counter attack that helps the home team earn the success.

Backing at least three goals shared out looks the best way to approach this really good looking football match, and that is still a decent enough price to go that way.


Arsenal v Brighton Pick: The last weeks schedule did not impress Arsene Wenger as Arsenal have been asked to play on Monday, Thursday and now Sunday ahead of the two week international break. The full squad has been utilised in that time and Arsenal are in line to make it three wins from three over that time period if they can secure the three points on Sunday afternoon.

There have been some encouraging performances from Arsenal who have the likes of Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez returning to the first time action. The wins put together in September has seen Arsenal make progress in all the competitions they have entered so far and The Gunners are playing with confidence.

It would be a surprise if they are not too good for Brighton who have not played that well away from home this season. They have not faced one of the better teams in the Premier League in that time either and this will be a big test for Chris Hughton's men.

The majority of the play is likely to come from Arsenal and I do think they will be too strong on the day. The layers feel the same as they are being asked to cover a big Asian Handicap, although you can back Arsenal at around 1.76 to win by two goals or more which is a tempting angle to go.

However I want to focus on an improving defence which is perhaps going to get the better of a shot-shy Brighton team. Brighton losing Tomer Hemed is a blow to their attacking threat in the final third and Arsenal have had 3 clean sheets from their last 4 games at the Emirates Stadium.

I can't imagine Arsenal not scoring at least one in this fixture and that may be enough for them to earn the three points. They were very lucky to earn a clean sheet against West Brom on Monday, but Brighton may not have that much of a threat away from home and I will look for The Gunners to blunt the firepower of the visitors and earn a win with another clean sheet to add to their collection.


Newcastle United v Liverpool Pick: There have already been some suggestions from Liverpool fans that bringing back Rafa Benitez as manager may help the club progress more than they are doing under Jurgen Klopp. Those suggestions may get a little louder if Newcastle United are able to beat Liverpool in the final Premier League game of the weekend.

This has been a fixture that Newcastle United have enjoyed in recent years and there may be added motivation after news that former Chairman Freddy Shepherd passed away this week. Shepherd wasn't always the fan's favourite, but he was clearly very passionate about Newcastle United and you have to think the whole club would want to put on a performance for him.

That alone isn't going to be enough for Newcastle United who have won their last couple of League games at St James' Park. This is a squad that has played better at home and Newcastle United will be dangerous if they can produce the effective defensive discipline that Benitez will look to set them up to do.

Against Tottenham Hotspur it was frustrating their visitors before Jonjo Shelvey lost his cool and I do think Newcastle United can make life difficult for Liverpool. The job will be a lot easier if Liverpool continue to produce the inconsistent finishing they have in recent games which has seen them drop points both in the Premier League and Champions League.

Liverpool have a fearsome looking attack, but so far the build up has been brilliant and the end product has not been up to scratch. The chances that have been missed in games against Burnley, Leicester City (in the League Cup) and both Sevilla and Spartak Moscow have to worry Jurgen Klopp, although the return of Sadio Mane and Philippe Coutinho should give the manager a real boost in confidence that the lack of goals will change.

The problem has been exasperated by a defence that hasn't been able to keep clean sheets and I do think the focus on that side of their game has been covering the issues in the final third. The 1-1 draws with Burnley and Spartak Moscow have come because Liverpool have not finished off the chances they created rather than the goals conceded, but this has perhaps been lost on most.

The chances created will at least give Liverpool some confidence they can turn things around after a difficult September. It won't be easy at Newcastle United who have thrived from set pieces, a real achilles heel for Liverpool, and who can defend very well under Benitez.

It does feel like this game will go in two ways- either Liverpool will score early enough to take control of the match or Newcastle United will score first and earn a positive result here. I simply can't see Liverpool coming from behind to win having drawn with Watford, Burnley and Spartak Moscow from losing positions but not having enough to win those games.

However I do think Liverpool are due a big performance and the chances they have been creating should mean they are able to win here. The 2-3 win at Leicester City last weekend and what should have been a comfortable win at Spartak Moscow are the kind of performances that may be too much for Newcastle United to deal with despite winning their last 2 home League games.

Newcastle United do have a very strong recent home record against Liverpool, but I think The Reds will be too strong on Sunday and I think they win here. It'll keep them in touch with the leading Premier League teams ahead of the next game which comes in under two weeks time against Manchester United at Anfield.

MY PICKS: Tottenham Hotspur - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.96 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Brom-Watford Draw @ 3.25 Bet365 (1 Unit)
West Ham United @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Chelsea-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Arsenal Win to Nil @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet365 (2 Units)

September Update: 24-26-3, - 0.88 Units (101 Units Staked, - 0.01% Yield)