NFL Week 4 Picks 2025 (Thursday 25th September-Monday 29th September)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings Pick: The next game on schedule for both of these teams is against the Cleveland Browns, but they will get to that in different weeks.

For the first time in NFL history, a regular season game is set to be played in Dublin, Ireland and it will be hosted by the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1), who have owners with links to the country.

They are facing the Minnesota Vikings (2-1), who will be facing the Cleveland Browns next week in London and become the first NFL team to play back to back international games in different countries.

It is a non-Conference game, but the international setting and the Steelers and Vikings both being involved in what should be competitive Divisions should mean there is a full focus on the game.

The Vikings are playing an international game for the third time in four seasons, including last year when they got the better of Aaron Rodgers and his New York Jets team in London. That experience is important and it is perhaps contributing to the Vikings being set as the favourite in Dublin, while they can also expect to be favoured when facing Cleveland next week in London.

Aaron Rodgers has helped the Steelers into a winning position through three weeks, but all has not been completely smooth for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Road wins over the New York Jets, which Rodgers really enjoyed, and the New England Patriots have sandwiched a loss to the Seattle Seahawks and it should be noted that the NFC West team are the only one that hold a winning record.

One of the big issues early in the season has been the Pittsburgh Offensive Line and they have struggled to open running lanes, while also having issues with protecting Aaron Rodgers and giving the veteran time to find Receivers down the field. An early chemistry has been built with DK Metcalf, but the Steelers Offensive Line have to find a way to establish the run in this game to make things more comfortable for Aaron Rodgers.

They are facing a Vikings Defensive Line that has had a slow start to the new season, but it is still tough to envision the Steelers suddenly ripping off big gains on the ground. The team are averaging just 2.8 yards per carry through three games and that has put their veteran Quarter Back in a tough spot, especially as they have struggled in pass protection.

Failing to run the ball efficiently against the Minnesota Vikings will lead to more pressure up front and this is a team that has rushed the passer really well. Any time Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers are behind the chains, the Vikings should be able to get close to him and that will only serve to attack what many believed could be a vulnerable Secondary.

This is clearly going to be the best Quarter Back that Minnesota will have seen through four games, but no one likes having to throw under duress and it could be key to at least stall some drives and force Field Goals or Punts rather than giving up Touchdowns.

Running the ball could be a tough task for the Steelers, but the Minnesota Offensive Line have to be really confident that they can establish Jordan Mason early and often. He is the lead Running Back with Aaron Jones out, but Mason showed his worth in the win last week and this Pittsburgh Defensive Line that has not been reaching the standards of the Steel Curtain of old.

In recent years it has been possible to run the ball against Pittsburgh and the early signs are not good for the Steelers, which should mean the Vikings are putting Carson Wentz in the best spot to be successful.

JJ McCarthy is travelling with the team for this two week business trip, but Head Coach Kevin O'Connell has made it clear that he does not expect the young signal-caller to be available to play. That means the job is in the hands of Carson Wentz, a Quarter Back who looked like he was going to be a franchise player early in his Philadelphia career, but who has become a backup in recent seasons.

However, he is operating under the guidance of a Head Coach who has earned a big reputation at getting the best out of his Quarter Back and Wentz had a solid first start for the Vikings as they comfortably rolled past Cincinnati.

If the team is running the ball as well as they can, things should be pretty comfortable for Carson Wentz who has Jordan Addison available for the first time this season. Justin Jefferson is one of the top Receivers in the League, and some would THE top Receiver, and the Vikings should be able to attack this Secondary from third and manageable range, which would also mean slowing down the Pittsburgh pass rush.

The Steelers could have a couple of key Defensive Backs available for this one, which is important to aid them, but the key will be to find a way to stop the run. Being unable to do that will just make it comfortable for Carson Wentz to get the ball out of his hands quickly and that should see the Vikings moving the chains and ultimately pushing into a position to win this game.

Turnovers are always a factor that could be decisive, but this Vikings Defensive unit may make the bigger plays, especially on the Line of Scrimmage, and that can see the NFC North team come out on top.

Mike Tomlin and Aaron Rodgers both have very strong records as the underdog and that has to be respected.

However, the Quarter Back was beaten in that exact spot by the Minnesota Vikings in London last season, and the team with the stronger expectations at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball can come through in a tough game here.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants Pick: Making a perfect start to the season would please any team, but there is something extra special about beating all three Divisional rivals. That is the case for the Los Angeles Chargers (3-0) through the first three weeks of the season and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has to be really excited about what he has seen from his team, as well as the early struggles of main AFC West rivals Kansas City Chiefs.

There has been plenty of praise for his players, but no one can secure Playoff spots in September and Harbaugh will be testing his team and their concentration levels.

This is a tough spot- the early Sunday kick off on the East Coast is never easy for any team coming from the Pacific Time Zone, but the Chargers are facing a New York Giants (0-3) team that looks firmly in transition.

After the latest defeat, Head Coach Brian Daboll had to listen to the fans and his time in charge of the Giants will come down to how Jaxson Dart performs at Quarter Back. Russell Wilson has looked a shadow of the player he once was and the fans were demanding to see Dart so the decision was an easy one to make, while an injury to starting Running Back Tyrone Tracy Jr means Cam Skattebo will be earning the majority of carries.

Some have suggested that Daboll would have been better off waiting a couple of weeks before bringing Jaxson Dart in for his first NFL start once this game was out of the way, but time has run out for the Head Coach who oversaw a 3-14 record in 2024.

There could be opportunities for Skattebo to run the ball effectively, although the Giants Offensive Line have had their issues early this season. They will need to try and establish the rookie, who is going to run hard against a Chargers Defensive Line that have struggled to stop the run, while Jaxson Dart is more mobile than Russell Wilson and he will be willing to run with the ball.

Running the ball is likely going to be the focus considering some of the issues the Giants have had in pass protection, while the Chargers Secondary have also continued to play at a high level. Any rookie is going to have to deal with picking up the pace of the NFL and Jaxson Dart will have some difficult moments in this game, which should give an experienced and talented Chargers team the edge.

Najee Harris was lost for the season last week, but Omarion Hampton might thrive with the backfield completely his as he showed last week. Another rookie, Hampton may have a bigger impact on the ground and he showed that he can catch passes coming out of the backfield which gives the Chargers yet another threat.

It is Justin Herbert who has been on the end of a whole lot of praise and he should be in a better position if Hampton can establish the run as Jim Harbaugh likes.

He has been making big plays in the passing game, despite having been put under pressure in the pass rush and this Giants Secondary has been exploited in the three games played. Justin Herbert has looked after the ball, which is really important, and is more than capable of moving forward in the pocket to avoid pass rush pressure and pick up yards with his legs.

However, it is Herbert's arm that can put the Chargers in a position to win this game on the road and his team are 7-2 against the spread as road favourites under the current Head Coach. Last season they won games at Carolina, Cleveland, Atlanta and New England as road favourites and Jim Harbaugh is a Head Coach who will have the team motivated and focused in a tough scheduling spot.

You have to believe the home crowd will be firmly behind Jaxson Dart in his first start for the team, but it could become difficult if the Giants have to become one-dimensional Offensively to get back into the game.

This is where the Chargers could take over and they may be able to make a late stop to secure a win by at least a converted Touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: For much of the game in Week 3, it felt like a matter of time before the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) would officially lose their first game of 2025. They were trailing for so long and looked lost Offensively, but the late rally saw the Eagles fight back and move ahead of the Los Angeles Rams with the minutes ticking down in the Fourth Quarter.

The Rams rallied and had a Field Goal lined up to win the game, but the Eagles blocked the kick, ran back the ball for a Touchdown and somehow not only won, but covered the spread.

It was a fortunate selection to say the least.

They are out on the road in Week 4 and the Philadelphia Eagles are in a rare position for a team that finished 18-3 in 2024.

One of those defeats was avenged in the Playoffs, but this is the one game that the Eagles will play in 2025 with revenge on the mind. Under the current Head Coach, the Eagles are 22-10 against the spread with the revenge angle in their favour as they prepare to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0) who had a late Field Goal to beat the New York Jets in Week 3.

The win is welcome, but Mike Evans has been lost to an injury and Baker Mayfield is playing through the pain, although the Tampa Bay Offensive Line could be bolstered.

The Buccaneers will lean on Bucky Irving and Rachaad White who will be looking to establish the run against the Eagles Defensive Line, which has had problems on the ground. That will help considering the lack of experience that the Buccaneers have in the passing game without the big target of Evans, which will be evident in a game against this very good Philadelphia Secondary.

Credit has to be given to the Secondary considering there has been a lack of pass rush pressure generated by Philadelphia and the Eagles will expect to be able to make enough plays when the ball is in the air to stall some of the Tampa Bay drives.

There is almost certainly going to be a similar feeling in the Buccaneers camp.

Head Coach Todd Bowles has a strong Defensive unit that has been very difficult to run against in the last couple of seasons and another strong start has been made by the Defensive Line.

Saquon Barkley showed he is a special Running Back, but it has not been the most productive of starts in 2025 and the Offensive Line is a little banged up. Some of the criticism is that the new Offensive Co-Ordinator has been guilty of making predictable calls and that has stymied some of the early Offensive showing.

Even the passing game has yet to really spark, but the Eagles have plenty of talent on this side of the ball as they showed in the fightback to beat the Rams in Week 3.

Quarter Back Jalen Hurts is capable of moving the ball out of the Run-Option and he is also a better passer than some will have you believe. It helps he has the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith to target, while Dallas Goedert was back in action last week, and the Eagles should have the capabilities of moving the ball and scoring points.

Tampa Bay have played well to win all three games this season, but they have faced the Atlanta Hawks, Houston Texans and New York Jets with the last of those teams missing Justin Fields. None of those teams have produced a lot Offensively, but this Philadelphia Eagles team will be motivated against an opponent that has a good recent record against them.

The Eagles are 5-2 against the spread when set as the road favourite in their last seven outings in such a spot, and they may have the talent on the Offensive side od the ball to put up enough points to cover this spread.

If they can force the Buccaneers to have to throw the ball to keep up, the Philadelphia Eagles could make a big play or two to stall a late drive and that may ultimately prove to be the difference in this contest between two unbeaten teams.

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: There is a Thursday Night Football game on deck for the Los Angeles Rams (2-1) and that against a Divisional rival that has begun the season with a perfect record. The scheduling spot does feel a little tough for the Rams having somehow failed to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3 and with a short week coming up, but Head Coach Sean McVay will be looking for a bounce back performance from his experienced roster.

They should also have the additional focus of facing an unbeaten opponent when hosting the Indianapolis Colts (3-0), a team who have made a surprising start with Daniel Jones at Quarter Back.

Most would have tipped up the Colts to be chasing the Houston Texans in the AFC South, but they are leading the way in the Division.

Wins over the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans are not the most eye-catching, but the Colts have thumped both opponents. They were fortunate to beat the Denver Nuggets when a late flag gave the Colts a second chance to hit a game winning Field Goal in Week 2, but this is something of a prove it kind of outing for them.

Jonathan Taylor has made a really strong start to the season and the Indianapolis Offensive Line have been key to opening up the running lanes, but this is a Rams team that have focused on being able to play the run better than previous years. Most of the attention for that improvement is trying to shut down the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Rams played Saquon Barkley well in Week 3 to believe they can have success against Taylor.

That will change the dynamics for Daniel Jones at Quarter Back, although he is a player capable of tucking the ball away and look to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground too.

He has been well protected early this season, but this could be a tougher test against a strong Los Angeles pass rush and especially if Daniel Jones is throwing from third and long spots. The Rams Secondary have also been playing well thanks to that pressure up front and this is unlikely to be a day when the Indianapolis Punter gets to put his feet up.

While the Colts could have some challenges establishing the run, the Rams should be more effective with the Indianapolis Defensive Line perhaps the least impressive of the units on both sides of the ball. That is not to say the Colts have been terrible, but they are have allowed some big carries and the Rams could be able to use their solid Offensive Line to open up gaps up front.

This is going to be key for Matthew Stafford, especially if Davante Adams is not able to suit up for the Rams.

Operating out of third and manageable spots should allow Stafford to use all of his experience to keep the chains moving, even against this Colts Secondary that have opened the season playing the pass very effectively.

The schedule is tough for the Rams, but this is also feels like the first really big test for the Indianapolis Colts.

Having the hook is always dangerous when opposing the underdog, but the Los Angeles Rams should be focused after the loss in Week 3 and they can make up for that, while also staying in touch with the early pacesetters in the NFC West.

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: It was never going to be hard for Micah Parsons to find motivation in his very quick return to the Dallas Cowboys (1-2), but comments made by Jerry Jones during the week will only have intensified the situation.

Contract negotiations had dragged on for months, but it was still a huge surprise to see the Cowboys trading away someone like Parsons ahead of his prime years. To send him to a Conference rival is even more bizarre and Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Packers (2-1) will be looking to make a big statement.

They were upset in Week 3 at the Cleveland Browns, but the Packers should have won that game, and they are not facing a team with the same kind of Defensive power in this one.

Injuries on the other side of the ball are going to make it very tough for Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys and it makes it an interesting tactic from Jones to try and rattle Parsons. The Cowboys owner spoke about some of the issues Parsons has had in run blocking and might be expecting Javonte Williams to continue his fine start to the season behind this Dallas Offensive Line.

However, this is the first time the Cowboys could be facing a Defensive Line as strong as the one that the Packers have trotting out onto the field and Williams may not have nearly the same room as in the previous three games. Stopping the run might also have become the focus for Green Bay after the injury to CeeDee Lamb, which has taken away Dak Prescott's favourite target, and the Packers can win up front.

Dak Prescott can still make big plays, but it would be all the tougher from third and long and with Micah Parsons breathing down his neck.

Without CeeDee Lamb, Prescott will need players like Jake Ferguson to step up, but throwing against this Green Bay Secondary will be difficult all day and it could be a tough night in the office for the Quarter Back and the Offensive unit.

The Packers have also had some early struggles running the ball and Josh Jacobs is a little banged up, but there should be more opportunities in this game. Handing the ball off to Jacobs and looking to remain in front of the chains is important for the Packers, but it should be possible to do that and make life a little more comfortable for Jordan Love at Quarter Back.

Kenny Clark was part of the Micah Parsons trade and will be looking to help his new team clamp down on the run, but the road team should have enough successes to keep the Quarter Back in a strong position.

Jordan Love will also be without a key Receiver, but he should have some time in the pocket when he drops back to throw and this Cowboys Secondary have struggled against the pass through the first three weeks of the season. The ball is spread around by Love and he should be able to find open Receivers, which should put the Packers in a spot to win and cover on the road.

Dallas will not have forgotten the Playoff beating here at the end of the 2023 season, but they have lost five in a row and a late Sack from Micah Parsons could put the final touches on this one.

MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

College Football Week 4 Picks 2025 (Saturday 20th September)

The majority of teams in the College Football ranks will really be getting their Conference part of the schedule moving as we progress into Week 4 and over the next several weeks the pretenders will begin to be separated from the contenders.

There are teams that have already suffered losses that could end their hopes of making the twelve team Playoff- Notre Dame Fighting Irish have lost twice and they really have no margin for error the rest of the way, while also needing other results to land their way, while the Clemson Tigers are also in early trouble at 1-2.

However, for others like the Tennessee Volunteers, a close defeat against a quality opponent like Georgia will not be a fatal blow and they will still have plenty of reasons to believe the rest of the way.

More movement within the College Football Ranks will be expected once the Week 4 action is completed, but one news story of interest this week was the report that a game will be played at Wembley Stadium, London next season.

In Week 0, the Kansas State Wildcats and Iowa State Cyclones met in Dublin, but College Football has yet to follow the NFL to England and that is expected to change.

Perhaps most interesting is that the game is rumoured to be played in Week 3 rather than the unofficial opening week of action as has been the case in the past for any international game. It may lead to more games being played in England going forward, although that may depend on how Conferences set up their schedules as not many College teams will be willing to give up home field like they do in the NFL.

That is something to keep an eye on with Kansas Jayhawks and Arizona State Sun Devils rumoured to be the participants at Wembley Stadium in 2026.

It was a better week for the College Football Picks, although still not quite good enough to begin to turn things back around after a poor Week 1 showing.

As we move into Week 4, hopefully a winning set of games can be found with those selections seen below.

Purdue Boilermakers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: Ryan Walters looked to be coming into a good situation with the Purdue Boilermakers (2-1), but the 1-11 record in 2024 was never going to be good enough for him to remain as Head Coach.

Unsurprisingly most would have felt the Boilermakers could only go up under Barry Odom, who had been doing a fine job as Head Coach of the UNLV Rebels. He has already helped double the wins from 2024, while the Boilermakers offered some resistance before losing to the USC Trojans at home in the Big Ten last week.

That makes it ten straight Conference defeats for the Boilermakers, but they are heading out to South Bend for this non-Conference game in Week 4.

Motivation will be high against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-2) with just 110 miles separating the campuses, while Purdue fans will remember the shellacking handed out by Notre Dame in 2024. That was on the way to National Championship Game, but this Fighting Irish team have already lost two close games to the Miami Hurricanes and Texas A&M Aggies and even making the post-season could be beyond them four weeks into the new season.

Head Coach Marcus Freeman has overseen a solid few seasons with the Fighting Irish, but he will be under pressure if the team are to slip to a third straight defeat in 2025.

There is room for improvement for the Fighting Irish ahead of this game- they have struggled for Offensive consistency and some of that is down to the Offensive Line issues. Notre Dame have not been able to run the ball with real authority, while the Fighting Irish Offensive Line have not been nearly as effective in pass protection as young Quarter Back CJ Carr would have liked.

It has put some pressure on Carr by having to be forced to throw from third and long spots and that has contributed to the Quarter Back opening this season with 3 Touchdown passes along with 2 Interceptions.

He should be able to have success against this Purdue team, although credit has to be given to Barry Odom who has made his reputation as a Defensive Coach and who has already shown he can toughen up this team. Last season the Boilermakers could not make stops, but the Defensive Line has made an encouraging start to the season and could keep the underdog competitive.

Winning at the Line of Scrimmage is so important in any American Football game and Purdue may struggle on the Offensive side of the ball when it comes to establishing the run. They may have some success slowing down the Fighting Irish on the other side, but the Boilermakers are not expected to have much success on the ground and that is going to put the pressure on the Quarter Back.

However, Ryan Browne may have some spaces to exploit considering the early issues Notre Dame have had in the Secondary, although the 4 Interceptions thrown is a problem. The Fighting Irish will also expect a step down compared with the Offensive power of the Hurricanes and Aggies, but there is an opportunity for Browne and the Boilermakers to have some gaps to exploit.

Turnovers are going to be important, but the spread is a big one and Barry Odom's record as an underdog is to be respected.

Notre Dame just need to win and the Purdue Head Coach was 6-3 against the spread as the road underdog with the Rebels.

The 59 point home loss to the Fighting Irish last season gives the road underdog a bit more motivation and the points on offer look appealing enough here.

Florida Gators @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The 10-3 overall record and the 6-2 Conference record saw the Miami Hurricanes (3-0) come up just short of the College Football Playoff spots.

They did win at least ten games for the first time since 2017, but the pre-season chatter was all about Head Coach Mario Cristobal and whether he could help the Hurricanes meet the new expectations around them.

Despite losing Cam Ward to the NFL as the Number 1 Overall Pick, the Hurricanes have been able to bring in Carson Beck at Quarter Back and the experience of this player cannot be underestimated. Coming through an early test to beat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, last year's National Championship Runners Up, will have raised the expectations further and the ACC looks a pretty open Conference at the very top.

A blowout win over the South Florida Bulls keeps the good times going, but everyone associated with Miami are expected a much tougher test against another in-State rival and one that is already in a desperate position.

Billy Napier may have finished last season by leading the Florida Gators (1-2) to a winning record, but 8-5 is not going to cut it again and the early results have already put the Gators behind the eight ball. Losing at the LSU Tigers is somewhat forgivable, but Florida were also beaten by the aforementioned Bulls and the Head Coach has to be feeling the pressure in his fourth season at the helm.

It is the Offensive side of the game that has been letting Florida down and they will need to put a solid Defensive unit in a better spot.

DJ Lagway is experienced having had to come in for Graham Mertz last season, but it was his 5 Interceptions in the loss to the Tigers that made the difference.

He has to be more careful against this tough Hurricanes Defense and the problem begins right up front with the Florida Offensive Line expected to find it difficult to establish the run. This will automatically mean the Quarter Back is having to force plays from third and long spots, which is a problem when noting 4 of the 6 Interceptions thrown in 2025 have been right out of that spot, and DJ Lagway is also going to be dealing with what has been a solid Miami Secondary.

Pressure can be produced up front and everything is pointing to another tough Offensive day in the office for the Florida Gators.

However, the key for the Gators has to be playing a clean game and at least being able to lean on the Defensive unit to continue to produce at the level they have been. It is a level that will give Florida a chance in every game played as long as they not being forced to protect short fields and the Gators just need Lagway to avoid the Interceptions that can put them on the back foot.

In saying that, Carson Beck is very experienced at Quarter Back and he has enjoyed his two previous games against the Florida Gators when a member of the Georgia Bulldogs. He did throw 3 Interceptions in the win against them last season, but has 4 Touchdown passes and Beck will believe the Hurricanes have the talent to find a way to move the chains.

A lot of the heavy handling may have to be done by Carson Beck considering how well the Florida Defensive Line have been performing early this season. They are going to be tested by the Hurricanes Offensive Line, but it may mean Beck is in a position where he will have to show off all of the experience he has in College Football.

Throwing successfully against this Florida Secondary will not be easy and Carson Beck has to avoid the Interceptions that could swing the game away from Miami. However, the feeling is that Beck can call upon some of his Receivers to win their battles and this is a big opportunity for Miami to show they are a genuine contender to reach the Playoff and perhaps even more.

Last season Florida were embarrassed in a blowout loss to the Miami Hurricanes at home and that will give them plenty of motivation this week.

Back to back road games are very difficult and it does feel like a game that the Miami Hurricanes can win and cover.

Respect has to be given to Billy Napier whose team has a winning record against the spread when playing with revenge, while the Head Coach has a 7-1-1 record against the spread when his team have a losing record. These stats cannot be dismissed, but DJ Lagway may not play a clean enough game for the Florida Gators and they may suffer yet another defeat by double digits when facing a Carson Beck-led opponent.

California Golden Bears @ San Diego State Aztecs Pick: The poor start made by the Clemson Tigers seems to have opened up the ACC and the California Golden Bears (3-0) will certainly feel they can exploit any gaps that have developed at the top.

Last season they finished with a 6-7 record, but there were enough close defeats in that time to believe that better was to come.

Non-Conference results are not always the best indication, but California have beaten Oregon State and Minnesota and they are set as big favourites to beat San Diego State Aztecs (1-1).

In 2024, California were 21 point winners against San Diego State at home and they are a significant favourite on the road. You can understand the reasoning for that considering how well the Golden Bears have begun this season, but they will have to be careful that they are not overlooking this opponent with the first ACC game on deck at Boston College set for Week 5.

The Golden Bears Offensive Line should be able to have some success on the ground as the Washington State Cougars did in their game with the San Diego State Aztecs, although the majority of the pressure will be on Quarter Back Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

He beat out Devin Brown, a transfer from Ohio State, and Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has impressed with 6 Touchdowns and a single Interception. After watching Jaxson Potter carve up the San Diego State Secondary, Sagapolutele and the Offense will certainly feel they can pick up where Washington State left off.

One challenge for the Golden Bears is that they are facing a team out of a Bye Week and with adjustments that will have been made. Even then, you have to believe California continue to roll and they can certainly pile up the yards and then see if the Aztecs have enough about them to make this competitive.

They were not able to do that in the blowout loss to the Washington State Cougars and San Diego State will be facing a California Defensive unit that have opened the season looking in very strong form.

San Diego State will want to lean on the Offensive Line and Running Back Lucky Sutton, but that is not going to be easy considering what we have seen from the Golden Bears Defensive Line. The road team will be aware that Sutton is the best player on this side of the ball for the Aztecs, and the home team are not going to be shying away from continuing to pound the rock, but it could be tough to move the chains with any consistency.

That will mean pressure on Jayden Denegal at Quarter Back, who struggled in the road loss at the Cougars.

He has been relatively well protected by the San Diego State Offensive Line, but Denegal has struggled for consistency and that may be the case against this California Secondary. There will be moments of success, but it could be another tough day in the office for this Offense and that could see the California Golden Bears eventually pull clear.

In recent years, the Golden Bears are 8-0 against the spread when playing non-Conference road games, while they are 14-7 against the spread in non-Conference games overall.

The spread is not going to be an easy one to deal with, but the Golden Bears can do enough to secure a two Touchdown win.

Michigan State Spartans @ USC Trojans Pick: Lincoln Riley is in his fourth year as Head Coach of the USC Trojans (3-0) and there is pressure on him to get things moving in a positive direction. His team won 11 games in his first season in charge, but that has dropped to 8 games in 2023 and 7 games in 2024 and the move to the Big Ten Conference means a much tougher route to earn a spot in the Playoff.

The positive is that four Big Ten teams were invited into the twelve team College Football Playoff last season and the USC Trojans have made a positive start to the season. They have already secured a road win in the Conference, which is that much tougher considering the vast range covered within the Conference schedule, and the Trojans are playing with real confidence.

However, there will be no doubt that this game represents the toughest test so far this season when the USC Trojans host the Michigan State Spartans (3-0).

Being in the Big Ten means the Trojans have a very tough schedule beginning this week, but the benefit of hosting is that this late kick off time should give the home team another advantage.

They will have plenty of respect for Michigan State Head Coach Jonathan Smith and USC fans will be familiar with his work with the Oregon State Beavers. After the team won 11 games in 2021, the last three years have been difficult, but the first season under Smith in 2024 showed plenty of positive signs and three straight wins to open this season means expectations are beginning to be increased at Michigan State.

Last season they finished 3-6 in Big Ten play, while the Spartans have not faced any team of real note before this huge statement test.

Like any team in the Conference, Michigan State will have a tough run of games coming up and they have to hope that the three games played are enough preparation for the kind of opponents they will be facing in the Big Ten.

The Spartans will find it tough to run the ball with any consistency against this Trojans Defensive Line and that will mean having to lean on Quarter Back Aiden Chiles to try and keep the team moving. Michigan State have not really impressed when facing weaker opposition compared with the USC Trojans, and so it will make it tough to believe that the road team can have a lot of consistent success when it comes to pounding the ball on the ground.

Aiden Chiles has opened the season with some positive numbers, but he did have 13 Touchdown passes and 11 Interceptions last season and this is going to be the first game where the pressure is on his shoulders. Playing out of third and long is tough and that will only be more difficult when you think of the pass rush pressure the Trojans have been able to generate early this season.

He will also be trying to throw against a ball-hawking Secondary and there is a feeling that Chiles could be forced into a turnover or two that really allows the USC Trojans to break the game open.

Once again all eyes will be on the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball... And the Trojans have to be very confident in what they are running out.

Credit has to be given to the Spartans Defensive Line for the early successes put on the board, but they have not faced an Offensive Line like the one that the Trojans will be trotting out. In the first three wins, USC have crushed teams on the ground and they have picked up 7 yards per carry, which in turn has made things very comfortable for Jayden Maiava at Quarter Back.

Jayden Maiava will be encouraged by the numbers being allowed by the Michigan State Secondary and he has been given plenty of time by the USC Offensive Line when dropping back to throw the ball. With the Receivers around him, Maiava is expected to have another quality showing and he can help the USC Trojans push forward and put a statement win on the board.

Since the start of the 2024 season, USC are 6-0 against the spread as the home favourite.

In recent years, the Michigan State Spartans are 1-7-1 against the spread as underdogs of more than 17 points and they may struggle to keep up with the hosts in this Week 4 clash.

MY PICKS: Purdue Boilermakers + 25.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

California Golden Bears - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

USC Trojans - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Memphis Tigers + 7 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Illinois Fighting Illini + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)

Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

NFL Week 4 Picks 2024 (Thursday 26th September-Monday 30th September)

After two solid weeks, the third week of the NFL season produced more inconsistent results as far as the NFL Picks are concerned.

It has been a relatively low-key start for many teams with some surprises and some real under-performers.

Injuries have already been a major factor and there is a slight feeling of a lack of spark involved in the League, which is something of a surprise.

Week 3 has continued the early season trend of having big underdogs not only covering, but actually winning games outright. In fact, the Cincinnati Bengals defeat to the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football meant the biggest underdog of the week has won for a third straight week in succession.

Suffice to say that Survivor Pools will have been decimated.

Speaking of the Bengals, they may be the biggest disappointment so far in the NFL- they came up narrowly short of a big upset of their own at the home of the defending Champions, but the Bengals have been upset by the New England Patriots in Week 1 and then by the Commanders in Week 3 and neither of those two teams have looked as strong when they have played opponents other than Cincinnati.

Injuries have contributed to the poor start made by the San Francisco 49ers, but they should bounce back once healthier. However, that is less likely to happen for the Jacksonville Jaguars who were blown out embarrassingly by the Buffalo Bills and have to be asking serious questions about Trevor Lawrence at Quarter Back.

Doug Pederson is on the hottest of hot seats and it may not be a big surprise if the Jaguars return from London next month and leave the Head Coach in the United Kingdom.

The Bengals and Jaguars might be the biggest disappointments, but there are teams out there feeling much happier with their starts as they have perhaps surprised those looking in from the outside.

You would have to place the Minnesota Vikings right at the top of that list after their 3-0 start with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, while credit has to be given to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks too. We will learn much more about these unbeaten teams as the weeks progress, although there will be some concern amongst the rest that the Kansas City Chiefs are at 3-0 without really playing well at all.

We will get Week 4 going with a big NFC East game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants and the two 1-2 teams in the Division are looking to get back onto the same number of wins as the Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles.

Big games are played on Sunday and we have another double-header on Monday Night Football with the second of the two games definitely more appealing for viewing purposes than the Miami-Tennessee game.

The results were a little disappointing in Week 3, but it has been a decent enough start and the selections will be added in this thread.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: The Dallas Cowboys (1-2) have dominated the recent series with the New York Giants (1-2), but this does not look like the same kind of team that has crushed the Giants time after time.

That is not to say that the New York Giants are considerably better than they were, but the win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 means they have matched that one victory that the Dallas Cowboys have had in Week 1.

Since then, the Cowboys have not only lost back to back games, but they have been really poor in those defeats and even the fightback against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday put a gloss on a scoreline that was out of hand early. There is limited time for the team to work on changing things around before this Thursday Night Football game in Week 4 and the back to back losses means there is little momentum behind a team that always has to deal with big expectations.

Mike McCarthy is under immesnse pressure as Head Coach and he needs a big reaction from his players after another blowout at home.

The Cowboys have struggled Offensively and one of the big concerns for the team has to be the Offensive Line play and an inability to really get the run going as they have been known to do in recent years. There will be perhaps more room to run the ball against this New York Giants team that have been given up some big yards on the ground, but it is hard to really trust Dallas from what has been produced and so it may be up to Dak Prescott and the passing game to keep the chains moving with any consistency.

Another problem that the Dallas Offensive Line have faced outside of being able to establish the run is that they have not been able to give Prescott the chance to throw the ball deep down the field. Third and long spots are always tough to convert and the Offensive Line have struggled to stop teams from crashing down around Dak Prescott and that is something that could be in play against this Giants pass rush.

If there is time, Dak Prescott should be able to make plays against this Secondary even if the Dallas Receiving options don't look as strong as previous years. However, the question is about that time that Prescott will have and the New York Giants may have a chance to turn the tables on this NFC East rival.

After losing their opening two games, the New York Giants might have been questioning where they are heading, even if they were unfortunate to lose to the Washington Commanders when being without a Kicker. The victory over the Cleveland Browns as a heavy underdog, the latest to do so in the NFL this season, will have just given the team a boost and that could see them earn another upset.

Losing to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 does not look nearly as bad as it might have felt a couple of weeks ago and the New York Giants will have noted the blueprint to beat the Cowboys. You can expect the team to hand the ball to Devin Singletary and then look for the Offensive Line to open holes up front to expose what has been a huge vulnerability in the Cowboys Defense and keeping Daniel Jones in third and manageable spots would be a huge boost for a struggling Quarter Back.

To be fair to Daniel Jones, he is managing the game a little better in his last two outings and has not thrown an Interception, even if past struggles against the Cowboys will need to be forgotten. Being in third and manageable spots should mean he is not relying on the Offensive Line to give him a lot of time to look down the field, which is important considering their own pass protection struggles.

He has been getting the ball out of his hands pretty quickly with the team being in better field position and Daniel Jones has to be really appreciating having Malik Nabers as his top Receiver. Drops had been an issue for the Giants in the last couple of years, but Nabers has shown why he was so highly regarded before the Draft and gives the Giants a real playmaker.

It is obviously difficult to ignore the dominance of the Cowboys in the recent rivalry and six wins in a row will give Dallas belief, even if they have been struggling. Many of those wins have been in blowout fashion too, but the New York Giants look much more capable of keeping this one competitive.

Underdogs have been thriving through the first three weeks of the NFL season, especially those given more than 5 points and that will eventually come back to the mean. Over several years those underdogs are not the strong covering teams that they have been in early 2024, but this looks a game where the home underdog may be able to bark loud enough to perhaps not earn an outright upset, but can stay within the point spread set.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: They gave the Kansas City Chiefs all they could handle and were perhaps unfortunate to lose that game in Week 2, but that has been the highlight of the early part of the season for the Cincinnati Bengals (0-3). Home losses to the New England Patriots and Washington Commanders have put this team under early pressure and while there is plenty of time left in this season, the Bengals can ill-afford another defeat.

A big game against another surprising early struggler is coming up in Week 5 against Divisional rival the Baltimore Ravens, so there is some pressure on the Bengals to start turning things around this week.

Joe Burrow ended last season on the IR, but his return was supposed to help the Bengals build on a year in which they narrowly missed the PlayOff.

However, it has been a tough early part of the season for the Quarter Back and injuries have hurt some of the options around him. The Cincinnati Bengals have struggled on both sides of the ball and the manner of the defeat to the Commanders on Monday Night Football would have caused plenty of worry amongst the fanbase.

They are facing the Carolina Panthers (1-2) on the road in Week 4 and not many would have predicted that the NFC South team would have a stronger record than the Bengals going into this game. The decision to move Andy Dalton into the starting lineup ahead of Bryce Young was vindicated with the team looking much more competent Offensively with the veteran at Quarter Back, although it was not a perfect week for the Panthers with news that Adam Thielen has picked up an injury.

Thirty-six points were scored by Carolina last week and that is a far cry from the combined thirteen points scored across their last four games. They had managed to score all thirteen of those points in their opening two losses to the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers and it did feel that the the rest of the players deserved a better chance to try and have success than persisting with Bryce Young.

The young Quarter Back's future is now cloudy, but this game could be a 'down to earth' moment for Andy Dalton, even if he is going to be plenty motivated in facing the team that Drafted him into the NFL.

For all of their issues, the Bengals have still played hard enough Defensively to make some plays and they will be looking to show a lot more than they did last week in the home loss to the Washington Commanders. The Bengals Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run and that will be important in this game to make sure Andy Dalton feels he is having to let routes develop before targeting Receivers down the field.

Adam Thielen's absence will hurt all the more if that is the case and this Cincinnati Secondary will feel they can contain the majority of the threats left, even if Diontae Johnson looked much more comfortable catching passes from Dalton. Being behind the chains would potentially see Andy Dalton throwing from pressurised spots, although the Cincinnati pass rush pressure has not been as strong as they would have liked.

Ultimately the direction of this game feels much more dependent on how the Cincinnati Bengals are able to perform Offensively and that is not as clear as perhaps the fans hoped it would be. We have seen moments and some drives where the Bengals look to be getting on track, but Joe Burrow will feel there is still improvement to come from himself, while Tee Higgins should also get better having made his first start in 2024 in Week 3.

Having more success running the ball will certainly help and the Bengals Offensive Line should be able to pave the way for some strong gains on the ground. Keeping the team in third and manageable will make things that much easier for Joe Burrow and the big name Wide Receivers to make plays for the team and will also mean the Quarter Back is not holding onto the ball for too long.

This should be the outcome of the drives when the Bengals have the ball and they can win this game by a wide enough margin to cover the spread.

Backing road favourites is not always ideal, especially not road favourites who are 0-3 and who have lost to two of what people may consider amongst the weakest teams in the NFL. However, the Bengals are in a desperate position and the Panthers might be a touch overrated after winning on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Andy Dalton is going to be massively motivated against his former team, but that alone may not be enough for the Panthers who are perhaps an underdog that would have received a few more points if they had been 0-3 going into Week 4, rather than playing off the back of a win.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Pick: Losing is always going to hurt any professional athlete, but the utter capitulation on Monday Night Football in Week 3 by the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) could lead to a lot of big chances. Trevor Lawrence has not played well enough at Quarter Back, while Head Coach Doug Pederson has to be feeling like his seat has significantly warmed up.

It doesn't help that the Jaguars capitulated at the end of last season to miss out on the post-season. To then open up in the manner they have in 2024, despite the expectations, will have raised so many questions about the Coaching staff as well as a Quarter Back that has just signed a huge contract in the off-season.

Over the next month, the Jaguars will be heading over to London to play their annual international games, but they need some momentum before those games. There is already a feeling of some desperation at play following the latest loss and another on Sunday may already have the owner and General Manager wondering whether changes should be made immediately.

This is a big Divisional game for the Jaguars, but also an important one for the Houston Texans (2-1) who were thoroughly outplayed in their Week 3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Losing against a non-Conference opponent should not be a major obstacle for the Texans to overcome and a second Divisional win will already be placing Houston in a position to return to the post-season.

CJ Stroud struggled at Quarter Back last week, but this looks to be a much more comfortable match up for the second year starter.

While the Minnesota Vikings have a Defensive unit playing at an extremely high level, the Jacksonville Jaguars have really been struggling and this Houston team has plenty of top Receiving talent to make the big plays for CJ Stroud.

Joe Mixon could be missing again and that may mean Houston are not able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like, although establishing the run might be challenging even if the Running Back is available. The Jaguars Defensive Line has been the strength of the team on that side of the ball, although even being able to contain the threat on the ground has not made it much easier to make stops.

They could not really rattle a dual-threat Quarter Back on Monday Night Football and the Jaguars may not be able to take advantage of some of the protection issues that the Houston Texans have had early in this season. There simply has not been enough pass rush pressure produced by the Jaguars and giving CJ Stroud will expose a Secondary that has not been able to make the big plays needed to turn momentum in their favour.

Jacksonville did largely contain the threat posed by the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, but this may be tougher after the miserable performance in Week 3. There will be some professional pride at play, but that may not be enough against a motivated Divisional rival playing after a blowout loss of their own.

Instead the focus will be on Trevor Lawrence and whether he can play better than what he has shown so far this season- the poor run has actually gone much further for the Quarter Back, and so it is hard to keep faith in Lawrence, even if the Jaguars will have to following the big contract extension handed to him.

A key for the team will be establishing the ground game and then hoping they can extend drives and keep the Houston Offense cooling off on the sidelines. The Jaguars were not able to stick with the plan against the Buffalo Bills after finding themselves in a big, early hole, and becoming one-dimensional is a surefire way to lose a game.

While this one is close, the Jaguars have to lean on the Offensive Line, although they are going up against a Houston team that will be looking to remind everyone that they are much better than what they showed against Sam Darnold and the Vikings. Controlling the Line of Scrimmage is key and the concern for the Jaguars is that they will have to move away from the ground attack sooner than they would like.

If that is the case, Trevor Lawrence has a tough match up in front of him- throwing from in front of the chains will give him a chance, but if Lawrence is in third and long spots, it could be a long day for him. His passing numbers have simply not been there because the Offensive Line have afforded Trevor Lawrence very little time when he has dropped back to throw the ball and time is not going to be easy to find against this Houston pass rush.

Pressure up front has certainly made it easier for the Secondary to make plays and Houston may feel they can win the turnover battle this week, which in turn could lead to a big win.

Playing a Divisional rival will provide motivation enough, but CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans will not have forgotten losing at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2023. They did win a blowout on the road earlier in the season as a big underdog, but this time it is the Houston Texans who look primed for a bounce back and a strong win as the home favourite.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The NFC North looks a very strong Division this season, even if the Chicago Bears have perhaps not performed as some would have expected from a dark horse. It is still early in the season as far as the Bears are concerned, especially at 1-2, but the rest of the Division all having winning records through three games and that will make these Divisional games feel that much more important.

If you had predicted one of the NFC North teams to be at 3-0, it would not have been the Minnesota Vikings (3-0) who have overachieved compared to pre-season expectations. After trading away Kirk Cousins, some felt the Vikings were going to head through a transitional season with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, but it has been far from the case within.

Wins over the New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans have been impressive, especially the manner in which the Vikings have won those games. Now they have to travel to the Green Bay Packers (2-1), a team who have bounced back from losing in Week 1 and without Jordan Love at Quarter Back.

There had been a fear that Love was going to miss significant time, but he was hoping to play in Week 3 and is again putting in time in practice to come back and lead the Green Bay Packers. The Coaching staff are unlikely to want to take too many risks with the face of the franchise though and suffice to say that Malik Willis has given the team no reason to need to rush back Jordan Love.

A win over the Indianapolis Colts before another against a team from the AFC South, this time in a revenge setting against the Tennessee Titans, has pushed Green Bay above 0.500 and Willis is looking like a competent player at this level. That was far from the case in Tennessee, but that also is something that the Packers Coaching team deserve a lot of credit for.

In giving him praise, it is hard to ignore the fact that Malik Willis will be facing his toughest test early in this Green Bay career.

He has contributed to what has been a strong Green Bay rushing attack, but that part of their Offensive game plan is going to be significantly tested by this Minnesota Vikings team. So far this season, the Vikings Defensive Line have only allowed 3.5 yards per carry and they have been able to get the better of a couple of decent Offenses, even if the 49ers were banged up in Week 2.

Making Malik Willis earn the yards through the air is going to be the key for the Minnesota Vikings with the Packers passing game a little rusty without Jordan Love. Again, credit has to be given to Willis for avoiding big mistakes and just doing what he needs to in order to keep the chains moving, but that task is going to be much more difficult if the Packers are playing from third and long spots.

There is something similar happening when the Minnesota Vikings have the ball- they are going to want to run the ball and make sure Sam Darnold is not in a position where he feels he needs to really push the boat out. So far that has not only been a good game plan, but a really strong one with the Vikings playing really well on this side of the ball.

It is a revenge game for Aaron Jones who left Green Bay to join Minnesota ahead of the 2024 season and he has promised to make the Lambeau Leap if he scores on Sunday.

You have to expect Jones and the Vikings to be able to have more consistency establishing the run when facing a Green Bay Defensive Line that has given up some big gains on the ground. This will be exactly what Sam Darnold will need, especially as the Quarter Back is playing through the pain at this moment.

Sacks could be a problem for Darnold whenever he is in obvious passing Downs, but credit has to be given to him for making sure he is avoiding big mistakes and doing what is needed to ensure Minnesota score enough points to win games. This Green Bay Secondary have given up a fair few yards in the air, but they have also created turnovers and that has to be something that Darnold needs to be aware of and look to avoid at all costs.

This has the makings of a really fun game and another chance to learn something about this Minnesota Vikings team.

No one outside of their own building would have predicted this start, although they do have to avoid being distracted by a Week 5 game in London. That is against former Packers Quarter Back Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets so plenty of fans will be anticipating the game, but this is the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau and that should be motivation enough.

The Vikings did win here as a narrow favourite last season, but this time they are capable of making use of the points being given to them to earn a road cover.

MY PICKS: New York Giants + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Arizona Cardinals - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Tennessee Titans - 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)