NFL Week 4 Picks 2025 (Thursday 25th September-Monday 29th September)

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings Pick: The next game on schedule for both of these teams is against the Cleveland Browns, but they will get to that in different weeks.

For the first time in NFL history, a regular season game is set to be played in Dublin, Ireland and it will be hosted by the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1), who have owners with links to the country.

They are facing the Minnesota Vikings (2-1), who will be facing the Cleveland Browns next week in London and become the first NFL team to play back to back international games in different countries.

It is a non-Conference game, but the international setting and the Steelers and Vikings both being involved in what should be competitive Divisions should mean there is a full focus on the game.

The Vikings are playing an international game for the third time in four seasons, including last year when they got the better of Aaron Rodgers and his New York Jets team in London. That experience is important and it is perhaps contributing to the Vikings being set as the favourite in Dublin, while they can also expect to be favoured when facing Cleveland next week in London.

Aaron Rodgers has helped the Steelers into a winning position through three weeks, but all has not been completely smooth for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Road wins over the New York Jets, which Rodgers really enjoyed, and the New England Patriots have sandwiched a loss to the Seattle Seahawks and it should be noted that the NFC West team are the only one that hold a winning record.

One of the big issues early in the season has been the Pittsburgh Offensive Line and they have struggled to open running lanes, while also having issues with protecting Aaron Rodgers and giving the veteran time to find Receivers down the field. An early chemistry has been built with DK Metcalf, but the Steelers Offensive Line have to find a way to establish the run in this game to make things more comfortable for Aaron Rodgers.

They are facing a Vikings Defensive Line that has had a slow start to the new season, but it is still tough to envision the Steelers suddenly ripping off big gains on the ground. The team are averaging just 2.8 yards per carry through three games and that has put their veteran Quarter Back in a tough spot, especially as they have struggled in pass protection.

Failing to run the ball efficiently against the Minnesota Vikings will lead to more pressure up front and this is a team that has rushed the passer really well. Any time Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers are behind the chains, the Vikings should be able to get close to him and that will only serve to attack what many believed could be a vulnerable Secondary.

This is clearly going to be the best Quarter Back that Minnesota will have seen through four games, but no one likes having to throw under duress and it could be key to at least stall some drives and force Field Goals or Punts rather than giving up Touchdowns.

Running the ball could be a tough task for the Steelers, but the Minnesota Offensive Line have to be really confident that they can establish Jordan Mason early and often. He is the lead Running Back with Aaron Jones out, but Mason showed his worth in the win last week and this Pittsburgh Defensive Line that has not been reaching the standards of the Steel Curtain of old.

In recent years it has been possible to run the ball against Pittsburgh and the early signs are not good for the Steelers, which should mean the Vikings are putting Carson Wentz in the best spot to be successful.

JJ McCarthy is travelling with the team for this two week business trip, but Head Coach Kevin O'Connell has made it clear that he does not expect the young signal-caller to be available to play. That means the job is in the hands of Carson Wentz, a Quarter Back who looked like he was going to be a franchise player early in his Philadelphia career, but who has become a backup in recent seasons.

However, he is operating under the guidance of a Head Coach who has earned a big reputation at getting the best out of his Quarter Back and Wentz had a solid first start for the Vikings as they comfortably rolled past Cincinnati.

If the team is running the ball as well as they can, things should be pretty comfortable for Carson Wentz who has Jordan Addison available for the first time this season. Justin Jefferson is one of the top Receivers in the League, and some would THE top Receiver, and the Vikings should be able to attack this Secondary from third and manageable range, which would also mean slowing down the Pittsburgh pass rush.

The Steelers could have a couple of key Defensive Backs available for this one, which is important to aid them, but the key will be to find a way to stop the run. Being unable to do that will just make it comfortable for Carson Wentz to get the ball out of his hands quickly and that should see the Vikings moving the chains and ultimately pushing into a position to win this game.

Turnovers are always a factor that could be decisive, but this Vikings Defensive unit may make the bigger plays, especially on the Line of Scrimmage, and that can see the NFC North team come out on top.

Mike Tomlin and Aaron Rodgers both have very strong records as the underdog and that has to be respected.

However, the Quarter Back was beaten in that exact spot by the Minnesota Vikings in London last season, and the team with the stronger expectations at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball can come through in a tough game here.

Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Giants Pick: Making a perfect start to the season would please any team, but there is something extra special about beating all three Divisional rivals. That is the case for the Los Angeles Chargers (3-0) through the first three weeks of the season and Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has to be really excited about what he has seen from his team, as well as the early struggles of main AFC West rivals Kansas City Chiefs.

There has been plenty of praise for his players, but no one can secure Playoff spots in September and Harbaugh will be testing his team and their concentration levels.

This is a tough spot- the early Sunday kick off on the East Coast is never easy for any team coming from the Pacific Time Zone, but the Chargers are facing a New York Giants (0-3) team that looks firmly in transition.

After the latest defeat, Head Coach Brian Daboll had to listen to the fans and his time in charge of the Giants will come down to how Jaxson Dart performs at Quarter Back. Russell Wilson has looked a shadow of the player he once was and the fans were demanding to see Dart so the decision was an easy one to make, while an injury to starting Running Back Tyrone Tracy Jr means Cam Skattebo will be earning the majority of carries.

Some have suggested that Daboll would have been better off waiting a couple of weeks before bringing Jaxson Dart in for his first NFL start once this game was out of the way, but time has run out for the Head Coach who oversaw a 3-14 record in 2024.

There could be opportunities for Skattebo to run the ball effectively, although the Giants Offensive Line have had their issues early this season. They will need to try and establish the rookie, who is going to run hard against a Chargers Defensive Line that have struggled to stop the run, while Jaxson Dart is more mobile than Russell Wilson and he will be willing to run with the ball.

Running the ball is likely going to be the focus considering some of the issues the Giants have had in pass protection, while the Chargers Secondary have also continued to play at a high level. Any rookie is going to have to deal with picking up the pace of the NFL and Jaxson Dart will have some difficult moments in this game, which should give an experienced and talented Chargers team the edge.

Najee Harris was lost for the season last week, but Omarion Hampton might thrive with the backfield completely his as he showed last week. Another rookie, Hampton may have a bigger impact on the ground and he showed that he can catch passes coming out of the backfield which gives the Chargers yet another threat.

It is Justin Herbert who has been on the end of a whole lot of praise and he should be in a better position if Hampton can establish the run as Jim Harbaugh likes.

He has been making big plays in the passing game, despite having been put under pressure in the pass rush and this Giants Secondary has been exploited in the three games played. Justin Herbert has looked after the ball, which is really important, and is more than capable of moving forward in the pocket to avoid pass rush pressure and pick up yards with his legs.

However, it is Herbert's arm that can put the Chargers in a position to win this game on the road and his team are 7-2 against the spread as road favourites under the current Head Coach. Last season they won games at Carolina, Cleveland, Atlanta and New England as road favourites and Jim Harbaugh is a Head Coach who will have the team motivated and focused in a tough scheduling spot.

You have to believe the home crowd will be firmly behind Jaxson Dart in his first start for the team, but it could become difficult if the Giants have to become one-dimensional Offensively to get back into the game.

This is where the Chargers could take over and they may be able to make a late stop to secure a win by at least a converted Touchdown.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: For much of the game in Week 3, it felt like a matter of time before the Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) would officially lose their first game of 2025. They were trailing for so long and looked lost Offensively, but the late rally saw the Eagles fight back and move ahead of the Los Angeles Rams with the minutes ticking down in the Fourth Quarter.

The Rams rallied and had a Field Goal lined up to win the game, but the Eagles blocked the kick, ran back the ball for a Touchdown and somehow not only won, but covered the spread.

It was a fortunate selection to say the least.

They are out on the road in Week 4 and the Philadelphia Eagles are in a rare position for a team that finished 18-3 in 2024.

One of those defeats was avenged in the Playoffs, but this is the one game that the Eagles will play in 2025 with revenge on the mind. Under the current Head Coach, the Eagles are 22-10 against the spread with the revenge angle in their favour as they prepare to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-0) who had a late Field Goal to beat the New York Jets in Week 3.

The win is welcome, but Mike Evans has been lost to an injury and Baker Mayfield is playing through the pain, although the Tampa Bay Offensive Line could be bolstered.

The Buccaneers will lean on Bucky Irving and Rachaad White who will be looking to establish the run against the Eagles Defensive Line, which has had problems on the ground. That will help considering the lack of experience that the Buccaneers have in the passing game without the big target of Evans, which will be evident in a game against this very good Philadelphia Secondary.

Credit has to be given to the Secondary considering there has been a lack of pass rush pressure generated by Philadelphia and the Eagles will expect to be able to make enough plays when the ball is in the air to stall some of the Tampa Bay drives.

There is almost certainly going to be a similar feeling in the Buccaneers camp.

Head Coach Todd Bowles has a strong Defensive unit that has been very difficult to run against in the last couple of seasons and another strong start has been made by the Defensive Line.

Saquon Barkley showed he is a special Running Back, but it has not been the most productive of starts in 2025 and the Offensive Line is a little banged up. Some of the criticism is that the new Offensive Co-Ordinator has been guilty of making predictable calls and that has stymied some of the early Offensive showing.

Even the passing game has yet to really spark, but the Eagles have plenty of talent on this side of the ball as they showed in the fightback to beat the Rams in Week 3.

Quarter Back Jalen Hurts is capable of moving the ball out of the Run-Option and he is also a better passer than some will have you believe. It helps he has the likes of AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith to target, while Dallas Goedert was back in action last week, and the Eagles should have the capabilities of moving the ball and scoring points.

Tampa Bay have played well to win all three games this season, but they have faced the Atlanta Hawks, Houston Texans and New York Jets with the last of those teams missing Justin Fields. None of those teams have produced a lot Offensively, but this Philadelphia Eagles team will be motivated against an opponent that has a good recent record against them.

The Eagles are 5-2 against the spread when set as the road favourite in their last seven outings in such a spot, and they may have the talent on the Offensive side od the ball to put up enough points to cover this spread.

If they can force the Buccaneers to have to throw the ball to keep up, the Philadelphia Eagles could make a big play or two to stall a late drive and that may ultimately prove to be the difference in this contest between two unbeaten teams.

Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: There is a Thursday Night Football game on deck for the Los Angeles Rams (2-1) and that against a Divisional rival that has begun the season with a perfect record. The scheduling spot does feel a little tough for the Rams having somehow failed to beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3 and with a short week coming up, but Head Coach Sean McVay will be looking for a bounce back performance from his experienced roster.

They should also have the additional focus of facing an unbeaten opponent when hosting the Indianapolis Colts (3-0), a team who have made a surprising start with Daniel Jones at Quarter Back.

Most would have tipped up the Colts to be chasing the Houston Texans in the AFC South, but they are leading the way in the Division.

Wins over the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans are not the most eye-catching, but the Colts have thumped both opponents. They were fortunate to beat the Denver Nuggets when a late flag gave the Colts a second chance to hit a game winning Field Goal in Week 2, but this is something of a prove it kind of outing for them.

Jonathan Taylor has made a really strong start to the season and the Indianapolis Offensive Line have been key to opening up the running lanes, but this is a Rams team that have focused on being able to play the run better than previous years. Most of the attention for that improvement is trying to shut down the Philadelphia Eagles, and the Rams played Saquon Barkley well in Week 3 to believe they can have success against Taylor.

That will change the dynamics for Daniel Jones at Quarter Back, although he is a player capable of tucking the ball away and look to pick up chunks of yardage on the ground too.

He has been well protected early this season, but this could be a tougher test against a strong Los Angeles pass rush and especially if Daniel Jones is throwing from third and long spots. The Rams Secondary have also been playing well thanks to that pressure up front and this is unlikely to be a day when the Indianapolis Punter gets to put his feet up.

While the Colts could have some challenges establishing the run, the Rams should be more effective with the Indianapolis Defensive Line perhaps the least impressive of the units on both sides of the ball. That is not to say the Colts have been terrible, but they are have allowed some big carries and the Rams could be able to use their solid Offensive Line to open up gaps up front.

This is going to be key for Matthew Stafford, especially if Davante Adams is not able to suit up for the Rams.

Operating out of third and manageable spots should allow Stafford to use all of his experience to keep the chains moving, even against this Colts Secondary that have opened the season playing the pass very effectively.

The schedule is tough for the Rams, but this is also feels like the first really big test for the Indianapolis Colts.

Having the hook is always dangerous when opposing the underdog, but the Los Angeles Rams should be focused after the loss in Week 3 and they can make up for that, while also staying in touch with the early pacesetters in the NFC West.

Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: It was never going to be hard for Micah Parsons to find motivation in his very quick return to the Dallas Cowboys (1-2), but comments made by Jerry Jones during the week will only have intensified the situation.

Contract negotiations had dragged on for months, but it was still a huge surprise to see the Cowboys trading away someone like Parsons ahead of his prime years. To send him to a Conference rival is even more bizarre and Micah Parsons and the Green Bay Packers (2-1) will be looking to make a big statement.

They were upset in Week 3 at the Cleveland Browns, but the Packers should have won that game, and they are not facing a team with the same kind of Defensive power in this one.

Injuries on the other side of the ball are going to make it very tough for Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys and it makes it an interesting tactic from Jones to try and rattle Parsons. The Cowboys owner spoke about some of the issues Parsons has had in run blocking and might be expecting Javonte Williams to continue his fine start to the season behind this Dallas Offensive Line.

However, this is the first time the Cowboys could be facing a Defensive Line as strong as the one that the Packers have trotting out onto the field and Williams may not have nearly the same room as in the previous three games. Stopping the run might also have become the focus for Green Bay after the injury to CeeDee Lamb, which has taken away Dak Prescott's favourite target, and the Packers can win up front.

Dak Prescott can still make big plays, but it would be all the tougher from third and long and with Micah Parsons breathing down his neck.

Without CeeDee Lamb, Prescott will need players like Jake Ferguson to step up, but throwing against this Green Bay Secondary will be difficult all day and it could be a tough night in the office for the Quarter Back and the Offensive unit.

The Packers have also had some early struggles running the ball and Josh Jacobs is a little banged up, but there should be more opportunities in this game. Handing the ball off to Jacobs and looking to remain in front of the chains is important for the Packers, but it should be possible to do that and make life a little more comfortable for Jordan Love at Quarter Back.

Kenny Clark was part of the Micah Parsons trade and will be looking to help his new team clamp down on the run, but the road team should have enough successes to keep the Quarter Back in a strong position.

Jordan Love will also be without a key Receiver, but he should have some time in the pocket when he drops back to throw and this Cowboys Secondary have struggled against the pass through the first three weeks of the season. The ball is spread around by Love and he should be able to find open Receivers, which should put the Packers in a spot to win and cover on the road.

Dallas will not have forgotten the Playoff beating here at the end of the 2023 season, but they have lost five in a row and a late Sack from Micah Parsons could put the final touches on this one.

MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

NFL Week 4 Picks 2014 (September 25-29)

Week 3 proved to be a very good one for the picks, even the ones where I didn't put any units on the teams and that gives me something to build on going into Week 4. The big news on this side of the pond is that we get to see the first London game of three as the Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders meet at Wembley Stadium on Sunday, although the performances of those two teams in the first three weeks is hardly inspiring anyone to think a great game is in the offing.

Week 3 Thoughts

Aaron Rodgers tells the Pack Nation to R-E-L-A-X: After going down to the Detroit Lions on Sunday, the questions returned about Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Offense which has struggled in the opening three weeks of the season. Scoring just 7 points against the Lions is not what anyone expected this team was going to be capable of producing, while Rodgers didn't have a great passing day again.

Rodgers hosts an ESPN radio show in Milwaukee and made a point of telling the Packers fans that have begun to worry to relax, while ignoring some of the reasons that have been given on social media sites for his poor start to the season.

This week is a big game for Rodgers and Green Bay as they visit the Chicago Bears who have a 2-1 record and a second Divisional loss in a row won't be good news for a team that some picked as a Super Bowl contender.

With the injuries in the Chicago Defense, Green Bay won't have a better chance to get the Offense back on track and I have to believe Rodgers when he clearly explains he is not close to being worried about how things have gone so far. However, another loss for the Packers and I think even the normally laid-back Quarter Back may begin to wonder if they will find a way to turn things around.

It is time for the rookies to start at Quarter Back... Except not Johnny Football: It isn't a big surprise that the Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars have joined the Oakland Raiders in giving their rookie Quarter Backs the keys to the Offense as all three of those teams have losing records.

Minnesota have obviously been forced into the move after Matt Cassel was placed on IR this week following his exit from the Week 3 loss at New Orleans, but Teddy Bridgewater needs to be given the chance as Cassel isn't taking the Vikings anywhere. Without Adrian Peterson, Norv Turner can really move the Offense in a new direction and it looks the right move for the Vikings who are unlikely to be a threat in the powerful NFC North.

The Jacksonville Jaguars may have taken too long to make the decision to give Blake Bortles the ball in place of Chad Henne as the latter is nothing more than a career back-up. Henne has been atrocious in the first three weeks of the season and the Jaguars have been blasted in back to back games and needed to make the change just to see what the future holds for the franchise.

While not a rookie as such, Ryan Mallett should perhaps also be given the chance for the Houston Texans over the awful Ryan Fitzpatrick who is a mistake waiting to happen every time he throws the ball. The Texans are 2-1 thanks to a weak schedule rather than anything they have turned around from last season and Mallett could potentially be the future of the team. If he is not, at least Bill O'Brien can start planning to Draft a new Quarter Back in the off-season, but I don't see what the Texans are learning with Fitzpatrick.

The one team that shouldn't even think contemplate a change are the Cleveland Browns who are arguably a couple of plays from being 3-0 rather than 1-2 and Brian Hoyer has done nothing to lose the job. It is the Defense that has cost the Browns their two losses and Johnny Manziel needs to keep sitting even if the Browns have reached their bye week which was suggested as the right time to make the move before the season started.

What's wrong with the New England Offense: They are 2-1, but New England struggled in their win over the Oakland Raiders and needed four Interceptions to pull away from the Minnesota Vikings and that has raised some questions about Tom Brady.

The Offensive Line hasn't played that well when it comes to protecting Brady, but he Receivers have struggled with their catching, outside Julian Edelman at least, and Rob Gronkowski hasn't really played to the level he has shown previously.

He remains a big redzone target, but Gronkowski has been less of a threat to help move the chains between the 20 yard line and Brady has subsequently struggled with having reliable players to make the big catch keep the Offense on the field.

You would think Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady will get things straightened out, but the Patriots can be very happy with the fact that the AFC East isn't the strongest Division. However, it makes me wonder if New England will have enough to challenge the best teams in this Conference when it matters in January.

Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck? One of the big stories at the end of Week 3 was Chris Harris' comments that Russell Wilson is a far better Quarter Back than Andrew Luck having seen both at close quarters during the first three weeks of the season.

It has sparked an interesting debate, although I would still say that Luck would have had a similar success with Seattle as Wilson has had, but I am not as convinced Wilson would have been able to replace Peyton Manning as well as Luck has. Both are extremely competitive and it has sparked a debate during the week where the majority still side with Luck, although the gap is considerably smaller than it was when both were drafted at the end of the 2011 season.

To be honest, both would be an extremely good start to a franchise that started from scratch, but Luck has to be the call at the moment.

I think he is the better thrower from the pocket and is capable of making plays by scrambling around as much as Wilson is, while Luck has been dealing with having to make up for a much weaker Defense. To be honest, I wrote three years ago that I thought the Miami Dolphins should have made a play for Wilson as a Third Round pick, but Andrew Luck is the guy I would back to have the more successful and lengthy career.

Top Five

1) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0): It is September so it doesn't mean a lot right now, but the Bengals look the most complete team in the NFL.

2) Philadelphia Eagles (3-0): The Eagles could just as easily be 0-3 as 3-0, but they continue to show the heart to win games and look the best team in the NFC East.

3) Arizona Cardinals (3-0): A big win over San Francisco with Drew Stanton at Quarter Back is the good news... However, if Carson Palmer is out for any length of time, it might be tough for the Cardinals to remain the team to beat in the NFC West.

4) Seattle Seahawks (2-1): Beating the Denver Broncos in overtime to frank the Super Bowl win moves the Seahawks back into the top five.

5) San Diego Chargers (2-1): The Chargers have a win over the Seahawks, but they have bigger tests than Buffalo to overcome if they are to prove themselves worthy of a top five spot.

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3): The only way is up for the Jaguars who should have made the permanent move into the Blake Bortles era.

31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3): The embarrassing defeat on national TV moves the Buccaneers down a couple of spots, although the injury to Josh McCown may be a blessing in disguise.

30) Oakland Raiders (0-3): Oakland played their best game of the season to fall short against the New England Patriots and a defeat in London this week may cost Dennis Allen his job.

29) Tennessee Titans (1-2): Back to back big defeats for the Titans makes their win over the Kansas City Chiefs look like being an exception than a rule in 2014.

28) St Louis Rams (1-2): You can't blow a 21 point lead at home and not expect to take some criticism.

Week 4 Picks

After a pretty tough opening week of the season, the last two weeks have been an improvement coupled with a really good Week 3 where the majority of picks went exactly as I wanted them to. I also got back one of the bad breaks of earlier this season as I was finally on the right end of a team blowing a huge lead when the Dallas Cowboys beat the St Louis Rams, while more fortune smiled on the picks thanks to Billy Cundiff and the Cleveland Browns Special Teams screwing up a couple of Field Goals in the eventual two point loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

All in all, Week 3 provided a number of winners that has turned the season back into the positive side of the field and I will be hoping Week 4 can back up that success. This is the first week that teams have bye weeks too so there is a smaller amount of games to get through, including the Dolphins and Raiders playing in London.


New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: It looks like there isn't simply a battle between Divisional rivals this Thursday night, but the public and the sharps are on opposite teams too. I wish I had gotten the memo- I really liked the underdog but now miss the hook thanks to the sharp money moving the spread a little more!

The Washington Redskins looked very good with the ball in their hands against the Philadelphia Eagles but they have suffered a number of injuries to Defensive positions that could give the New York Giants a real chance to move to 0.500 and earn a big Divisional win.

Eli Manning finally found a connection with his Wide Receivers last week against the Houston Texans and he was well protected by his Offensive Line which was something of a surprise. If Rashad Jennings can run hard like last week, the Giants could find their Offensive groove in this one and make this game a real shoot out.

I fully expect Kirk Cousins is going to be capable of replicating some of the numbers he produced last week as he does look a good fit with the system, but a couple of things concern me. First off the Giants have actually managed to pressure the Quarter Back fairly effectively in their first three games and the Washington Offensive Line might not be able to cope. Secondly, the Giants are pretty good against the run and may be able to limit Alfred Morris' gains to force Cousins into third and long situations where their pass rush will be all the more effective.

Finally, Cousins struggled terribly in a loss to the Giants at the end of last season and I think the Giants look a decent underdog in this one. It is a shame that they are no longer being offered more than a Field Goal in terms of points, but I will take the 3 points on offer and look for Manning to outplay Cousins.

Both could have big games, but the Giants Defense may be able to make the bigger plays and continue their recent dominance of Washington after winning 12 of the last 16 games in the series.


Detroit Lions @ New York Jets Pick: The New York Jets are coming off a Monday Night disappointment to the Chicago Bears, but they could still take advantage of a Detroit team that had an emotional victory over the Green Bay Packers.

The spread looks crazy if you consider some of the performances these teams produced this season, but the Jets have a great spot in which to bounce back. The Defense is still playing well enough to contain Matt Stafford, especially as the Quarter Back and the Lions can be prone to mistakes, while Calvin Johnson is banged up.

Geno Smith is also a Quarter Back that has a number of mistakes in his game, but I like the spot the Jets are in, if only for a small interest.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Another team coming off a hugely disappointing performance are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Pittsburgh Steelers look like they are being asked to cover too much in my opinion.

As well as the Steelers played against Carolina last week, Tampa Bay are a lot better against the run than people may think and I don't believe Le'Veon Bell and LaGarrette Blount have the same impact in this one.

Also, Mike Glennon is an upgrade on Josh McCown who showed he could get the ball to Vincent Jackson in the 2013 season and now he also has another huge body in Mike Evans to throw to now. Doug Martin is back to help run the ball against the Steel Curtain, or former Steel Curtain, and Tampa Bay have more Offensive success than some people may think.

Pittsburgh have received all the praise of the last week performance at Carolina, but they might not be able to win this one by more than a Touchdown.


Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: I really think Green Bay are in a strong position to come through Week 4 to level their season record, even if the Packers have played badly in their two previous road games. Aaron Rodgers has not been as sharp as I would have liked to have seen him, but he has every chance of bouncing back against a banged up Chicago Bears Secondary.

The Offensive Line hasn't helped Rodgers much at all, but this Chicago pass rush isn't as fierce as the one that the first three teams Green Bay have faced can produce and I think the Quarter Back will have enough time to make plays. If Chicago sell out to defend the pass, Eddie Lacy is capable of having his best game of the season to run the ball down their throat.

It isn't to say that this is going to be one-way traffic as Chicago should be able to have plenty of success with the ball in their hands too. Matt Forte should be able to run the ball and Jay Cutler is going to have the time to hit Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey or Martellus Bennett when throwing the ball too.

The difference between the teams in my opinion is that I think Aaron Rodgers is less likely to panic if his team is in a hole and not push too much to lead to more mistakes. On the other hand, Jay Cutler is less likely to manage himself and avoid trying to throw into tight spots when trying to get his team back into the game and I think the Packers win the turnover battle which ultimately decides this game.

Aaron Rodgers has a strong record of covering the spread coming off a loss, especially if that spread is less than a Touchdown, and I think the Packers win this game and cover.


Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Pick: I was hoping that the Buffalo Bills would still have had slightly more than a Field Goal headstart in this one, but the Bills still look the shout in the road game at the Houston Texans.

CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson should be able to set EJ Manuel up by ripping off big gains on the ground and that should set the Bills up for the surprise.

The bigger key could be the Defense which should be able to give Ryan Fitzpatrick a few problems after his struggles a week ago. The Bills have been tough to run against all season and that will mean Fitzpatrick is asked to do more than he would normally be trusted to do.

The Bills Secondary have given up big numbers at times this season, but Buffalo have a powerful pass rush that could be all over Ryan Fitzpatrick if Arian Foster is unable to run the ball for the Texans.

Houston also could be overlooking the Bills with their 2-1 record, especially as they have to face Dallas and the Indianapolis Colts in their next two games, and I like the Bills to cover.


Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: If Jake Locker was in the line up, Tennessee would have a much stronger chance of keeping this competitive because the Indianapolis Defense is not one that will shut down too many opponents in my opinion. I don't come close to respecting Charlie Whitehurst's ability to do that in this game and it does feel it can result in another big loss for the Titans who are on back to back road games.

Andrew Luck is a top Quarter Back that should be able to sling the ball around once and effective ground attack is established through Trent Richardson/Ahmad Bradshaw. The latter is also a threat coming out of the backfield to pick up short passes, while Luck himself can scramble away from pressure.

The Colts would have been 2-1 if they had avoided mistakes against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2 and I do think they are the better team here. I would back Luck over Whitehurst every day of the week and I think 9 out of 10 times Luck would lead his team to a comfortable win.

Indianpolis have covered in 5 straight games against Tennessee, but none have been for a spread of this size and the majority of those games have been competitive. Divisional games usually are but I like the Colts to find their way and cover by winning by double digits.


Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This looks like being a huge game for the San Francisco 49ers who can't afford to take another loss, but that doesn't mean they are going to blow away the Philadelphia Eagles who have another Offensive personnel to win this game outright.

I think the 49ers are going to have a better game plan for this one than they have run the last couple of weeks, although it would be ironic if they overdo the rush compared with the pass as that may play into the hands of the Eagles.

Colin Kaepernick has Vernon Davis once again to help him move the chains through the air and I do think San Francisco can hit the Eagles through the air after seeing Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins dissect them at times.

However, the lack of a pass rush on the Defensive side of the ball will give Nick Foles a chance to punish a Secondary that has regressed from last season. LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles are big threats coming out of the backfield too so this could be a tough day for the 49ers Defense which has not played well against Drew Stanton last week.

Both teams could move the chains at will in this one and I also think there is something to be said about the way San Francisco have played in the second half compared with Philadelphia. The Eagles have shown their up-tempo Offense wears teams out and the 49ers have been heavily outscored in the fourth quarter which could see the Eagles come out with a late cover in this one, even if they don't manage to win the game.


New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys Picks: The New Orleans Saints and the Dallas Cowboys should both have a lot of success moving the ball in this one against two Defenses that are both not really up to the standard of the Offenses.

Both should score points pretty efficiently but the real difference in the game could come if the Saints can somehow slow down DeMarco Murray to the point that they are forcing Tony Romo to throw from third and long situations.

Rob Ryan should have his Defense fired up against his former team, but the Saints have to improve significantly on what they have produced so far this season if they are to beat the Dallas Cowboys. The Saints should have all success with their own Offense, but the question is whether the Defense will let them down as they have in the two losses they have suffered.

It is tough to see the Saints losing another game though and I think they will win the scoring duel with Dallas on Sunday night and I will back this team to cover.

0 Unit Picks: Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points, Oakland Raiders + 3.5 Points, San Diego Chargers - 12.5 Points, Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points

MY PICKS: New York Giants + 3 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 1.5 Points @ 1.92 SkyBet (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 3 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 7.5 Points @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 4 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 2.08 Pinnacle (2 Unts)

Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 16-11, + 8.14 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units