NFL Week 4 Picks 2015 (October 1-5)

I can't believe we have already reached the first quarter of the NFL regular season as teams begin their bye weeks and the first game of three to be played in London will kick off on Sunday. That does mean it is a longer day for the NFL fans in the United States as the London game is kicking off at 1:30pm local time, 9:30am on Eastern Time and an eye-watering time of 6:30am on Pacific Time.

The game involves two AFC East rivals so I can't imagine too many people get up particularly early on the West coast for the game, but I am going to be interested to see what kind of numbers the game gets in terms of viewers both in local areas and on the East coast.

The Miami Dolphins do have a big European following, but the game is going up big European football (soccer) games and I would be interested to see the numbers Sky television have against the Merseyside derby and the Arsenal versus Manchester United game.

Last season the early kick off in the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons game did do big numbers in the United States and probably played a big part in the three games in London all being played at 1:30pm this time around. Next season the test will be playing games on back to back weeks, which couldn't be done because of the Rugby World Cup this season, as the NFL gauges the interest in putting a permanent franchise in London and whether fans are willing to pay for blocks of games in a short period of time.


I have put up my Week 3 Recap which includes the Top Ten and Bottom Five Power Ranking as well as thoughts about Ben Roethlisberger's injury, the improved NFC South compared with 2014, the improving Oakland Raiders and whether Joe Philbin should still be Head Coach of the Miami Dolphins. That can be read here.

Week 4 Picks

Week 3 has proved to be a very good one for the picks and that can be read on the Week 3 Recap link which was placed above.

The Week 4 schedule begins with a big AFC North game on Thursday Night Football and the picks for the entire schedule will come through over the next three days which will be added here as they are locked in.


Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: There are a couple of factors at play in this AFC North game which is huge for both the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers as they try to keep alive their post-season ambitions.

The Baltimore Ravens are in a desperate spot as they dropped to 0-3 for the first time in franchise history last weekend and another loss would likely be the end for them. The Pittsburgh Steelers have the more positive record at 2-1, but lost Ben Roethlisberger for the next month at least and are trying to stay in contention in the AFC North with back up Michael Vick at Quarter Back and knowing the Cincinnati Bengals are already 3-0.

Since Big Ben went down, Pittsburgh have gone from favourites to pretty hefty home underdogs here and the trend of how teams have performed with a back up Quarter Back in his first start can't be ignored. Last week that went 1-1 as New Orleans Saints covered, but Dallas Cowboys failed to, although the latter blew a huge lead.

It still covers around 65% of the time over the last five years and now we are getting a full Field Goal in favour of the home team. Michael Vick might not be the athlete he was in his prime with the Atlanta Falcons, but he has some big Offensive weapons around him, while the Baltimore Ravens are banged up Defensively. Vick can still throw a very strong football and Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell are big players in the supporting cast that can make things easier for the Quarter Back.

Establishing a running game won't be easy against this Defensive Line, but Bell is a very capable Receiver out of the backfield and I think the Ravens are struggling enough in the Secondary for the Steelers to still get their points in this one.

The Pittsburgh Steelers Defense has also played better than expected as they have managed to get plenty of pressure up front, while the Defensive Line has controlled teams from running the ball. Joe Flacco has got the ball out of his hands quickly, but his Receivers are banged up outside of the veteran Steve Smith and the Steelers will be forcing him to throw from third and long which builds its own pressure.

I honestly think Pittsburgh can still get enough points on the board to win this game outright and getting as many as three points looks very generous. Baltimore are desperate in their 0-3 hole, but teams do tend to rally around back up Quarter Backs making their first start.

Michael Vick has to avoid the turnovers that have blighted his game over the last few seasons, but the support from his Offensive playmakers should help him out, while Terrell Suggs' injury for Baltimore just takes away a huge pass rusher for the Baltimore Ravens.

Teams rallying around their back up Quarter Back is one thing, but Pittsburgh are also 5-1 against the spread when set as the home underdog in recent seasons. I like the home team with the points in this one, although only for a single unit because of Michael Vick's turnover issues and the fact he is facing a desperate team on a short week with little preparation time.


New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Technically the Miami Dolphins are the home team, but this game is being played at Wembley Stadium in London where the Dolphins are only less accustomed to playing than the Jacksonville Jaguars. This is the third time Miami will have played in London since the International Series began in England in 2007 and the second season in a row they will be in London for Week 4 of the NFL season.

There are more similarities as the Dolphins come into the game at 1-2 and Joe Philbin is facing big questions as to whether he is the right Head Coach to take the team further. Last season Miami responded in the right way against the Oakland Raiders, who ironically fired Dennis Allen in the wake of that loss, but failure to win this year might mean it is Philbin being left that side of the pond on Sunday evening.

It does seem a strange decision for Miami to give up a Divisional home game for a game in London, but the NFL have made it clear that those looking to host the Super Bowl have to be prepared to give up a home game for London. Plus it doesn't hurt that Miami have lost their last three in South Florida against the New York Jets so perhaps a change in venue works for a 'home' game.

The fanbase are on the Miami backs at the moment so being away from that toxic environment, well toxic as a half empty Stadium can be, might work for the team. Miami have been very good as a small underdog going 24-13-3 as an underdog of three points or fewer in the last few years and everyone seems to be righting off a team that was expected to challenge in the AFC East.

Miami are desperate and the short passes Ryan Tannehill thrives on might work against a New York Jets Defense that is playing better than perhaps advertised. Plus they are going against Ryan Fitzpatrick who is never far away from completely falling apart and he might have a banged up Chris Ivory running the ball and only Brandon Marshall as a trusted Receiver.

Erik Decker has made the trip but is limited in practice after missing last week and while I expect Marshall to have a big game, the Dolphins have had success shutting down the Jets rushing Offense in the past. New York are just 8-14-1 against the spread as the favourite in a Divisional game in recent years while they are 3-8 against the spread when coming off a loss where they were favoured.

There aren't many points being given to the underdog in this one, but Miami have experience of playing in London, are in desperate mode and have thrived as the underdog while the Jets have struggled as the favourite.

This spread could easily move up to 2 or even 2.5 points by Sunday morning as the only game kicking off at 9:30am Eastern Time especially if the public stick with the favourite. However, I'll put it down now at the 1.5 point mark in anticipation of a Miami win this week.


New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There is a huge Hurricane Joaquin off the east coast of the United States that might have a big effect on Buffalo in the coming days, but not until after Week 4 is in the books.

After coming off two Divisional games and also playing a pre-season hot Super Bowl tip, the Buffalo Bills 'only' have a non-Conference game this week and it might be tough for them to be ready emotionally. Players are humans and you have to think this a spot where Buffalo's players can take a breath after three tough, emotional games where they have gone 2-1.

LeSean McCoy is likely absent, although Karlos Williams has shown he has something in the tank already in his first three NFL games, while Sammy Watkins is also expected to miss this game. The New York Giants have actually been pretty stout against the run, but Tyrod Taylor will see holes in the Secondary that he has shown he can exploit as the Quarter Back has exceeded all expectations.

Some will point out that this is a non-Conference game for the Giants too who are missing Victor Cruz after he had a setback in practice, but they've had ten days to prepare for the game and the Offense has been rolling without Cruz all season. Eli Manning has played well, aside from the mental mistakes when it has come to clock management, and the Buffalo Secondary has not been up to the level expected.

I think Odell Beckham, Rueben Randle, Dwayne Harris and Larry Donnell all are targets that can win their battles for Manning, while that might also create a little more running room for Rashad Jennings.

The Giants are also 1-2 on the season so this game means more to them than Buffalo and New York are 14-10 against the spread as the road underdog in their last twenty-four games. New York are also 3-0 against the spread following a Thursday Night Football game and the injuries to Buffalo plus the spot can't be ignored at all.

One last trend that I read was brilliantly researched and favours the Giants here- teams that began the season 0-2 and won in Week 3 have gone 32-10 against the spread in their next game when they are set as the underdog.

As long as Eli Manning keeps away from the turnovers, I think the Giants keep this one close if they can't win outright.


Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: One of the big public plays of the weekend are going to be the Carolina Panthers who have moved to 3-0 despite losing a couple of big pieces of their team on both sides of the ball. Kelvin Benjamin was lost in pre-season, but Charles Johnson was injured last week and is out until Week 12 at the earliest.

Jared Allen has been traded from the Chicago Bears since then and will comfortably move into the 4-3 Defense run by Ron Rivera and Cam Newton has been playing very well.

I can understand why the Panthers are being backed so heavily because they have won 3 of their last 4 visits to Tampa Bay, while the Buccaneers are 7-18 against the spread as the home underdog in recent years.

The Buccaneers have been hit and miss under the guidance of Jameis Winston as the rookie Quarter Back has struggled for consistency. However, he wasn't helped by his Kicker missing Field Goals in the loss to the Houston Texans last weekend, but the improving health of Mike Evans is a big deal for him.

Unfortunately for Winston, he is unlikely to get too much support from the rushing game which means he is forced to throw from third and long situations against a Defense that has an effective pass rush. The Offensive Line has struggled to protect Winston who is still guilty for perhaps holding the ball a touch too long and the Panthers Defense will believe they can turn the ball over a couple of times in this one.

Tampa Bay's Defense has been strong against the run themselves, but dealing with Cam Newton is a different story and the Quarter Back has led the Panthers to 4 straight wins in this Divisional rivalry. Newton will make enough plays with his legs and to his limited Receiver corps which isn't great outside of Greg Olsen and I expect them to move the chains more effectively than Tampa Bay.

The Panthers are just 3-6 against the spread as the road favourite in recent games, but they are 4-1 agains the spread in games where they are favoured by three points or fewer. I hate the fact that line looks too short though and the fact the public are all over it, but Carolina are the better team and should win this one by at least seven points.


Houston Texans @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: From one heavily backed public favourite, I am moving towards opposing another as I like the Houston Texans with what looks like too many points against the Atlanta Falcons.

For the third straight week, the Atlanta Falcons recovered from a deficit to win a game they perhaps should not have done and this is a team that could easily be 0-3 rather than 3-0. Those wins against the NFC East has put this team in a strong position in the NFC South, but this is a non-Conference game and perhaps they are not as focused as they should be.

Plus I really think the Houston Texans are the first team that are going to get a consistent pressure on the Offensive Line of the Falcons and see if they can pressure Matt Ryan to look in a different direction than Julio Jones. The Wide Receiver has been immense for Atlanta all season and Jonathan Joseph is banged up for the Texans so he can have a big game, but pressurising Ryan can at least slow down the Falcons.

Devonta Freeman is off his best career game, but this Houston Defensive Line is unlikely to see him get loose as he did against Dallas and I think the Texans can give Ryan Mallett and the Offense every chance of keeping this close.

Mallett hasn't exactly been perfect at Quarter Back and a better performance might have seen Houston beat Carolina in Week 2, but he did lead them to a win last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He has been nervous taking his chances which isn't helped by his Offensive Line struggling in protection, but the Falcons have a Secondary that can be burned as Brandon Weeden showed last week and don't have the pass rush that some other teams Houston have faced do have.

I also can see Alfred Blue having another decent game in relief of the injured Arian Foster as Atlanta have struggled to stop the ground game, giving up 4.8 yards per carry. That should see Houston moving the chains effectively too and barring any Fourth Quarter miracles from Atlanta, this looks a close game.

One concern is the Thursday Night Football game Houston are scheduled for this week against Divisional rival Indianapolis, but they are 6-2-1 against the spread when set as an underdog of between 3.5 and 9.5 points since 2013. Atlanta are also just 3-6 against the spread as the home favourite in their last nine games in that spot which becomes 1-5 against the spread against non-Divisional rivals as the home favourite.

Almost a Touchdown worth of points looks too much here and I will back the Texans to cover even if they end up on the wrong side of the loss.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: If the NFL decided that every Play Off game will kick off at 1pm Eastern Time, I don't know if anyone would be favoured to beat Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals. Perhaps if the season was switched so the Play Offs are played in September would also help as the Bengals seem to be at their best early in the season and their 3-0 start makes them a big favourite to win the AFC North.

They can put their foot down in the Division having seen their nearest rivals Pittsburgh lose on Thursday Night Football and now they face the Kansas City Chiefs off a short week. Andy Reid is being questioned about the wisdom of sticking with Alex Smith at Quarter Back after consecutive defeats when Smith looks uncomfortable taking a chance and that has seen a really poor third down conversion rate from Kansas City.

There are some big weapons at his disposal so Smith can't really complain too much about anything other than his own play. He might also point to the Jamaal Charles fumble which cost Kansas City a 2-0 start, although it wouldn't be wise to throw the best Offensive player under the bus. Charles will be effective despite Cincinnati's strength against the run to open the season because the Running Back can catch the ball and make plenty of yards after the catch too.

However, it will be tough for the Chiefs to move the chains consistently because the Offensive Line has been porous and now face an effective pass rush. Smith will be under pressure all day and throwing out of third and long, which looks likely for much of the day, is not where Kansas City want to be and is exactly why their conversion rate is so horrific on third down.

Andy Dalton has been the poster boy for those who like criticising Quarter Backs, but he has been very solid in 2015 to open the season. It does feel Dalton is under pressure to bring his regular season success into the Play Offs, but for now he isn't showing that he is feeling the tension and he should be able to get AJ Green going again this week.

Sean Smith has returned from suspension which is huge for the Kansas City Secondary giving up almost 290 yards per game through the air, but Dalton has been given time by his Offensive Line and should be able to make plays. Of course Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are a pass rush like very few out there and have gotten to Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers effectively, but Dalton will be confident in making the plays needed.

This Bengals teams is 9-3-1 against the spread in the last thirteen games as the home favourite and they are 6-1-1 against the spread in those games against non-Divisional teams. A Conference game should keep Cincinnati focused instead of looking forward to the Seattle Seahawks game next week and Kansas City are coming in on a short week.

It feels like changes are in the offing at Kansas City and I didn't like the body language in the loss to the Green Bay Packers when they were well out of the game by the Third Quarter. Cincinnati have been a covering machine in these 1pm Eastern Time games and I like them to cover in this one.


Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: It feels a lifetime ago that the San Francisco 49ers were one of the best teams in the NFC and rolling to four consecutive wins over the Green Bay Packers. Some of Colin Kaepernick's best moments in the NFL have come at the expense of the Packers and short week or not, Aaron Rodgers doesn't strike me as someone who will forget easily.

It is easy to suggest the Green Bay performance from the Third Quarter of the win over the Kansas City Chiefs was with this game fully on the mind of the team and I am looking for a big game from the former California Golden Bear.

Rodgers should be able to do that too against a San Francisco team that is going through a transition on both sides of the ball, but who have lost some many leaders on the Defensive side. After beating the Minnesota Vikings on the opening week of the season, it seemed like those departures had been forgotten but fans have quickly been reminded in blowout losses to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals.

There is simply not enough pressure up front and that means Quarter Backs like Ben Roethlisberger and Carson Palmer have been able to carve up the Secondary. Aaron Rodgers might have lost Jordy Nelson, but still has enough weapons to do that this week and I expect this is going to be his best game in terms of yardage of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if he matches the five Touchdowns he threw last week against Kansas City.

The Quarter Back strikes me as someone who doesn't forget being slighted as evidenced by his decision to talk about his Draft Day woes. San Francisco had the Number 1 Pick that year and chose Alex Smith over Rodgers and I this is a team he has been desperate to embarrass and I don't think he'll ever have a better chance to do that on the road.

San Francisco won't be steamrolled without offering some more fight than they have in their last couple of games. Carlos Hyde should have success establishing the run and Green Bay know all about Colin Kaepernick's ability to get out of the pocket and make gains with his legs. We haven't seen too much of that this season, but I expect the game plan will be to keep the ball on the ground after too many Interceptions have been thrown from the Quarter Back.

While I think San Francisco will have success while running the ball, Green Bay may simply load the box and force the 49ers to go to the air from where their pass rush has been effective. The Offensive Line hasn't protected Kaepernick well at all this season, although his throws have been questionable to say the least and the 49ers can't afford to fall into a big hole else I can't see them coming back at all.

There are a couple of questions about the spread that need to be answered- Green Bay simply aren't as good as road favourite as a home one, while San Francisco haven't been set as a home underdog since 2011 while they are 2-0-1 against the spread in that spot prior to this game.

However I look for angry Aaron Rodgers to take out his frustration of back to back Play Off defeats to San Francisco at the end of the 2012 and 2013 seasons by making a point here. San Francisco are down after back to back beatings and I look for Aaron Rodgers to rub some salt in the wounds.


St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: I invited everyone onto the Arizona Cardinals bandwagon last week after another destructive win in the first three weeks of the season. Unfortunately it looks like everyone has jumped on board and they look to be the most heavily backed public team of the weekend, but I don't think it is time to jump off just yet.

The line is dead on the seven point mark and this is a second Divisional game in a row, but importantly the Arizona Cardinals are home where they have been dominant over the Bruce Arians era. Carson Palmer is healthy and Arians isn't someone who will call off the dogs when he thinks he has an opponent down and he makes that clear even in games with a big lead like last week against the San Francisco 49ers.

This isn't just a normal game for Arians and Palmer either- remember this is the game where Palmer was lost for the season last year and I imagine both Head Coach and Quarter Back have far from forgotten about that. Palmer might have made a joke in relation to that injury, but Arizona will be looking for another big Divisional win to make a statement.

Arizona have crushed St Louis the last two times they have hosted them, beating them by 20 and 17 points in those games. However, I think the Offensive Line has the biggest test of the season this week against the Rams vaunted pass rush, although Palmer doesn't hold onto the ball that long. He also has some big weapons in the passing game, while Chris Johnson has established a running game and should be able to keep the Offense in third and manageable spots as St Louis looks to focus on clamping down on the passing game.

It won't deter Bruce Arians from dialling up the deep ball either and I like the Cardinals to get very close to the thirty points they have put up against the Rams the last two times in the desert.

Todd Gurley is going to get more reps for St Louis this week, but I am not sure the First Round pick is going to get uncorked here. The Cardinals have been very effective at controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and won't allow St Louis to establish a running game but will force Nick Foles to beat them through the air.

The Cardinals have dialled up some effective pressure which saw Colin Kaepernick make big mistakes last week and I can see them bamboozling Foles too. He isn't surrounded by the weapons he had in Philadelphia and the Offensive Line hasn't protected him as Foles would have liked, while playing from behind hasn't worked out too well for teams in Arizona.

This is a ball-hawking Secondary that might take the ball from St Louis, even if Foles has been careful so far, and I think Arizona pull away as they have the last two times against the Rams at home.

Bruce Arians has guided his team to a 9-2-1 record against the spread as the home favourite and improved to 3-1 against the spread as the home favourite in Divisional games last week. One cool trend is Arizona have also improved to 7-0 against the spread when scoring 30 points or more the previous week as Arians doesn't ask his team to take a backward step following a strong performance Offensively.

St Louis are 5-9 against the spread as the road underdog over the last two seasons and while they will have some success Defensively, I think Arizona continue their run of big wins.

MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Steelers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
New York Giants + 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals - 7 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 3: 8-2, + 9.03 Units
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.71 Units
Week 1: 5-2-1, + 6.46 Units

Season 2015: 17-9-1, + 13.78 Units
Season 2014: 77-80-2, - 8.47 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 3 Recap 2015 (September 29th)

The NFL season is beginning to take shape and next week will see the first quarter of the season put in the books and it is also the start of teams taking in their bye weeks. I think the majority of teams prefer taking in a later bye week to make sure their team is healthy for the final few weeks of the season, but it is the New England Patriots and the Tennessee Titans who have drawn the short straw in being the first two on a bye week in Week 4.

As I will try and do for the entire season, I will put down a few thoughts out of Week 3 below before moving on with my Top Ten and Bottom Five in the Power Ranking and finally put down a few thoughts about the Week 3 picks.

Can the Pittsburgh Steelers Overcome Ben Roethlisberger's Injury?

Injuries are part and parcel of the NFL, but in this day and age when there is plenty of protection for the Quarter Backs, it is a shame that a second Super Bowl contender has lost their starting Quarter Back for multiple weeks.

Last week it was the Dallas Cowboys losing Tony Romo and this week it is the Pittsburgh Steelers losing Ben Roethlisberger, although reports indicate the latter could be back in around four weeks time.

That would put Big Ben in line to return in Week 8 in time for a three game home stand for the Steelers before going on their bye and the question is whether he will be returning to a team that is still in contention for a Play Off place.

The Cincinnati Bengals have opened up on fire and lead the AFC North with a 3-0 record so the key for the Steelers is to try and stay with them before Roethlisberger returns.

Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, the schedule isn't too kind as they face the Baltimore Ravens on a short week at home, before travelling to San Diego, hosting Arizona and then heading to Kansas City. 

The best case scenario is Roethlisberger returns at time to face the Cincinnati Bengals, but Pittsburgh could easily go 0-4 in his absence meaning Mike Tomlin doesn't rush back a Quarter Back for a 2-6 team. The key to the decision might be how the Bengals do because their next three games all look difficult on paper and this is a team that might only be 5-2/4-3 ahead of that game with the Steelers which is not an insurmountable lead.

No matter what, there is no disguising the huge blow this has been to Pittsburgh who had the best Offense in the first two weeks of the season and just got Le'Veon Bell back in the line up. Now they need Michael Vick to turn back the clock and perhaps produce some magic to at least see the Steelers go 0.500 in their next four games and just manage themselves into a position to still contend for the Play Offs by the time Big Ben returns.

The NFC South not the Mediocre Division of 2014

That image shows where the NFC South teams were placed with a couple of games left last season as the Carolina Panthers became only the second team to go to the Play Offs with a losing record.

Three of the four years prior to 2014 had seen the NFC South produce two Play Off teams and they might be on course to do the same in 2015.

You can probably draw a line through the New Orleans Saints, who might be missing Drew Brees for multiple weeks and are already at 0-3, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who will have teething problems with rookie Jameis Winston at Quarter Back.

However, both the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons have begun at 3-0 this season and neither has a schedule problem going forward. Being matched with the NFC East hasn't proved any trouble for the Falcons whose three wins have all come against that Division and they do have the easier schedule of the two leaders of the NFC South as the Panthers have to play Division winners from a season ago including the Seattle Seahawks and the Green Bay Packers.

Both teams will feel they can keep their momentum going forward though, although I think Carolina still have something to prove Offensively if they want to make it three NFC South Division titles in a row. There are enough positives though and both Carolina and Atlanta may already be thinking of the special season they could potentially have ahead.

The Oakland Raiders are a Team on the Up

The rumours continue to swirl that the Oakland Raiders might soon be called the Los Angeles Raiders again and this is a team that could certainly light up Hollywood if they continue improving as they are.

Mark Davis has been a much more sensible owner than his father by employing patience in the rebuild, while General Manager Reggie McKenzie is showing why he was so highly rated at the Green Bay Packers.

There have been some very good Draft picks in recent years and the likes of Derek Carr, Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack are the kind of building blocks on which to turn around a franchise.

I was a little disappointed with the way Oakland played against Cincinnati in Week 1, but back to back wins over Baltimore and in Cleveland have backed up my feeling about this team and the direction they are heading.

No doubting that there is still work to do, but Jack Del Rio is a solid Head Coach and the patience being shown in getting this franchise turned around has to be respected.

Joe Philbin Should be Fired and Left in London by the Miami Dolphins

So after praising the patience that the Oakland Raiders are using to get their franchise turned around, it might be strange to see me then writing in the next paragraph that Joe Philbin needs to be fired.

I've had enough to be honest.

The Miami Dolphins have had the talent to reach the Play Offs in recent years but have been stuck in the mediocrity of 8-8 or 7-9 finishes thanks to poor results to end the seasons. For the second season in a row they are 1-2 heading to London, but this this time it is for a crucial Divisional game and I do think a loss should see the end of Philbin's time as Head Coach here.

Zero passion, poor play-calling, bad clock management- these are the things I recall from Philbin in his time as Head Coach and the beat down suffered at the hands of the Buffalo Bills was simply embarrassing at home.

The Defense has been appalling with reports of Ndamukong Suh going rouge on plays, while Ryan Tannehill continues to struggle behind a porous Offensive Line that can't set up any semblance of a rushing attack.

Something has to be done about a Head Coach that is beginning to feel the wrath of the fans but it looks like it might be another lost season for a team with plenty of talent, but plenty of holes. The worst thing about finishing 8-8 is you can't even pick up a huge talent to make a big difference high up in the Draft, so the only possible reason for keeping Philbin is if the players have given up on him and the Dolphins can get a high Draft pick for next season.

I still think there is time to turn around this season and firing Philbin after Week 4 means Miami have a bye week to try and turn things around- hell, I'd fire him even if Miami beat the New York Jets whose Head Coach Todd Bowles has been an Interim Head Coach at the Dolphins in the past.

I know I am not the only one who has had enough of this terrible Head Coach, it's time for Stephen Ross to admit his mistake in extending his contract and cut his losses after Week 4.

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (3-0): If the Green Bay Packers win the Number 1 Seed in the NFC, I don't know which team is going to go into Lambeau and break this dominant home field advantage.

2) Arizona Cardinals (3-0): I can same the same about the Arizona Cardinals and it looks like people might have woken up to what this team is all about.

3) New England Patriots (3-0): Some people are talking about New England matching their 2007 regular season when they remained unbeaten before eventually going down in the Super Bowl.

4) Denver Broncos (3-0): The Denver Broncos won another tough road game and the Defense continues to play at a high level and surprisingly are carrying Peyton Manning a little bit at the moment.

5) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0): I am still not completely convinced the Cincinnati Bengals are for real, but they deserve to move up for the way they won at the Baltimore Ravens and are big favourites to win the AFC North in the wake of the Ben Roethlisberger injury.

6) Atlanta Falcons (3-0): I don't know whether the Atlanta Falcons should be praised for their Fourth Quarter comeback wins, or whether there is an underlying problem that will come back and bite them.

7) Seattle Seahawks (1-2): They needed that win over Chicago and the Defense looked dominant, albeit against Jimmy Clauson.

8) Dallas Cowboys (2-1): Dallas gave that game away against Atlanta, but the Cowboys are soon going to get some reinforcements on the Defensive side of the ball which can help protect leads.

9) Minnesota Vikings (2-1): Two home wins against Detroit and San Diego are solid wins, but the return to form of Adrian Peterson can certainly carry this team to the Play Offs.

10) Buffalo Bills (2-1): I dropped them out of the Top Ten after the battering at the hands of the New England Patriots, but Buffalo bounced back effectively with a big road win at Miami. I placed Buffalo ahead of the likes of Indianapolis and Pittsburgh because of the performance of the former and injury to Big Ben for the latter.

Bottom Five

32) Chicago Bears (0-3): This looks a long process to get the Chicago Bears turned around. Jared Allen was traded to the Carolina Panthers this week and more moves are expected before the trade deadline.

31) New Orleans Saints (0-3): They battled hard, but the New Orleans still fell to 0-3 with a loss to the Carolina Panthers and Drew Brees remains questionable for an immediate return from injury.

30) Miami Dolphins (1-2): Have the players given up on Joe Philbin and the coaching staff? Week 3 suggested they have, but they went to London 1-2 in 2014 and bounced back with a huge win over the Oakland Raiders so watch this space.

29) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2): The Buccaneers were beaten at Houston last week, but the focus might have been on the home Divisional game against Carolina this week.

28) Washington Redskins (1-2): I moved the Tennessee Titans out and the Washington Redskins in after the way the two teams performed in big Divisional games in Week 3. Kirk Cousins is simply not the answer to any decent question Washington are posing and the trade for Robert Griffin III has set the franchise back massively.

Week 3 Picks Recap

After a rough end to Week 2 which saw my final two picks come out on the wrong side and thus produce a losing record, Week 3 was back in the positive and helped put up strong numbers to open the season.

I will be looking to complete the first quarter of the regular season with another positive week, but I also know how quickly things can turn around if you lose focus or even hit a patch of bad luck.

Eight of the ten picks in Week 3 came in as winners and even the two losing picks can be seen as hard luck cases- Dallas had a big lead against the Atlanta Falcons in the first half, but then fell apart to lose, while the Indianapolis Colts were up eight with under three minutes remaining but allowed the Touchdown only to prevent the two point conversion Tennessee needed.

Go back and look at the picks and I think you'll agree that, aside from perhaps the Houston game where Tampa Bay missed some Field Goals that likely prevent the cover, I didn't really get 'lucky' with my picks.

The likes of Philadelphia, Minnesota, Arizona, Buffalo and Green Bay all won by wide margins despite two of those teams being underdogs and all of them favoured by less than a converted Touchdown.

So I am happy with how the picks have gone to this point, but, as I said after Week 1, things can change quickly in the NFL and this is far too early to be in congratulatory mode.

Week 4 Picks will begin on Thursday through until Saturday for the entire slate of games to be played.

NFL Week 4 Picks 2014 (September 25-29)

Week 3 proved to be a very good one for the picks, even the ones where I didn't put any units on the teams and that gives me something to build on going into Week 4. The big news on this side of the pond is that we get to see the first London game of three as the Miami Dolphins and Oakland Raiders meet at Wembley Stadium on Sunday, although the performances of those two teams in the first three weeks is hardly inspiring anyone to think a great game is in the offing.

Week 3 Thoughts

Aaron Rodgers tells the Pack Nation to R-E-L-A-X: After going down to the Detroit Lions on Sunday, the questions returned about Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Offense which has struggled in the opening three weeks of the season. Scoring just 7 points against the Lions is not what anyone expected this team was going to be capable of producing, while Rodgers didn't have a great passing day again.

Rodgers hosts an ESPN radio show in Milwaukee and made a point of telling the Packers fans that have begun to worry to relax, while ignoring some of the reasons that have been given on social media sites for his poor start to the season.

This week is a big game for Rodgers and Green Bay as they visit the Chicago Bears who have a 2-1 record and a second Divisional loss in a row won't be good news for a team that some picked as a Super Bowl contender.

With the injuries in the Chicago Defense, Green Bay won't have a better chance to get the Offense back on track and I have to believe Rodgers when he clearly explains he is not close to being worried about how things have gone so far. However, another loss for the Packers and I think even the normally laid-back Quarter Back may begin to wonder if they will find a way to turn things around.

It is time for the rookies to start at Quarter Back... Except not Johnny Football: It isn't a big surprise that the Minnesota Vikings and Jacksonville Jaguars have joined the Oakland Raiders in giving their rookie Quarter Backs the keys to the Offense as all three of those teams have losing records.

Minnesota have obviously been forced into the move after Matt Cassel was placed on IR this week following his exit from the Week 3 loss at New Orleans, but Teddy Bridgewater needs to be given the chance as Cassel isn't taking the Vikings anywhere. Without Adrian Peterson, Norv Turner can really move the Offense in a new direction and it looks the right move for the Vikings who are unlikely to be a threat in the powerful NFC North.

The Jacksonville Jaguars may have taken too long to make the decision to give Blake Bortles the ball in place of Chad Henne as the latter is nothing more than a career back-up. Henne has been atrocious in the first three weeks of the season and the Jaguars have been blasted in back to back games and needed to make the change just to see what the future holds for the franchise.

While not a rookie as such, Ryan Mallett should perhaps also be given the chance for the Houston Texans over the awful Ryan Fitzpatrick who is a mistake waiting to happen every time he throws the ball. The Texans are 2-1 thanks to a weak schedule rather than anything they have turned around from last season and Mallett could potentially be the future of the team. If he is not, at least Bill O'Brien can start planning to Draft a new Quarter Back in the off-season, but I don't see what the Texans are learning with Fitzpatrick.

The one team that shouldn't even think contemplate a change are the Cleveland Browns who are arguably a couple of plays from being 3-0 rather than 1-2 and Brian Hoyer has done nothing to lose the job. It is the Defense that has cost the Browns their two losses and Johnny Manziel needs to keep sitting even if the Browns have reached their bye week which was suggested as the right time to make the move before the season started.

What's wrong with the New England Offense: They are 2-1, but New England struggled in their win over the Oakland Raiders and needed four Interceptions to pull away from the Minnesota Vikings and that has raised some questions about Tom Brady.

The Offensive Line hasn't played that well when it comes to protecting Brady, but he Receivers have struggled with their catching, outside Julian Edelman at least, and Rob Gronkowski hasn't really played to the level he has shown previously.

He remains a big redzone target, but Gronkowski has been less of a threat to help move the chains between the 20 yard line and Brady has subsequently struggled with having reliable players to make the big catch keep the Offense on the field.

You would think Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels and Tom Brady will get things straightened out, but the Patriots can be very happy with the fact that the AFC East isn't the strongest Division. However, it makes me wonder if New England will have enough to challenge the best teams in this Conference when it matters in January.

Russell Wilson or Andrew Luck? One of the big stories at the end of Week 3 was Chris Harris' comments that Russell Wilson is a far better Quarter Back than Andrew Luck having seen both at close quarters during the first three weeks of the season.

It has sparked an interesting debate, although I would still say that Luck would have had a similar success with Seattle as Wilson has had, but I am not as convinced Wilson would have been able to replace Peyton Manning as well as Luck has. Both are extremely competitive and it has sparked a debate during the week where the majority still side with Luck, although the gap is considerably smaller than it was when both were drafted at the end of the 2011 season.

To be honest, both would be an extremely good start to a franchise that started from scratch, but Luck has to be the call at the moment.

I think he is the better thrower from the pocket and is capable of making plays by scrambling around as much as Wilson is, while Luck has been dealing with having to make up for a much weaker Defense. To be honest, I wrote three years ago that I thought the Miami Dolphins should have made a play for Wilson as a Third Round pick, but Andrew Luck is the guy I would back to have the more successful and lengthy career.

Top Five

1) Cincinnati Bengals (3-0): It is September so it doesn't mean a lot right now, but the Bengals look the most complete team in the NFL.

2) Philadelphia Eagles (3-0): The Eagles could just as easily be 0-3 as 3-0, but they continue to show the heart to win games and look the best team in the NFC East.

3) Arizona Cardinals (3-0): A big win over San Francisco with Drew Stanton at Quarter Back is the good news... However, if Carson Palmer is out for any length of time, it might be tough for the Cardinals to remain the team to beat in the NFC West.

4) Seattle Seahawks (2-1): Beating the Denver Broncos in overtime to frank the Super Bowl win moves the Seahawks back into the top five.

5) San Diego Chargers (2-1): The Chargers have a win over the Seahawks, but they have bigger tests than Buffalo to overcome if they are to prove themselves worthy of a top five spot.

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3): The only way is up for the Jaguars who should have made the permanent move into the Blake Bortles era.

31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3): The embarrassing defeat on national TV moves the Buccaneers down a couple of spots, although the injury to Josh McCown may be a blessing in disguise.

30) Oakland Raiders (0-3): Oakland played their best game of the season to fall short against the New England Patriots and a defeat in London this week may cost Dennis Allen his job.

29) Tennessee Titans (1-2): Back to back big defeats for the Titans makes their win over the Kansas City Chiefs look like being an exception than a rule in 2014.

28) St Louis Rams (1-2): You can't blow a 21 point lead at home and not expect to take some criticism.

Week 4 Picks

After a pretty tough opening week of the season, the last two weeks have been an improvement coupled with a really good Week 3 where the majority of picks went exactly as I wanted them to. I also got back one of the bad breaks of earlier this season as I was finally on the right end of a team blowing a huge lead when the Dallas Cowboys beat the St Louis Rams, while more fortune smiled on the picks thanks to Billy Cundiff and the Cleveland Browns Special Teams screwing up a couple of Field Goals in the eventual two point loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

All in all, Week 3 provided a number of winners that has turned the season back into the positive side of the field and I will be hoping Week 4 can back up that success. This is the first week that teams have bye weeks too so there is a smaller amount of games to get through, including the Dolphins and Raiders playing in London.


New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Pick: It looks like there isn't simply a battle between Divisional rivals this Thursday night, but the public and the sharps are on opposite teams too. I wish I had gotten the memo- I really liked the underdog but now miss the hook thanks to the sharp money moving the spread a little more!

The Washington Redskins looked very good with the ball in their hands against the Philadelphia Eagles but they have suffered a number of injuries to Defensive positions that could give the New York Giants a real chance to move to 0.500 and earn a big Divisional win.

Eli Manning finally found a connection with his Wide Receivers last week against the Houston Texans and he was well protected by his Offensive Line which was something of a surprise. If Rashad Jennings can run hard like last week, the Giants could find their Offensive groove in this one and make this game a real shoot out.

I fully expect Kirk Cousins is going to be capable of replicating some of the numbers he produced last week as he does look a good fit with the system, but a couple of things concern me. First off the Giants have actually managed to pressure the Quarter Back fairly effectively in their first three games and the Washington Offensive Line might not be able to cope. Secondly, the Giants are pretty good against the run and may be able to limit Alfred Morris' gains to force Cousins into third and long situations where their pass rush will be all the more effective.

Finally, Cousins struggled terribly in a loss to the Giants at the end of last season and I think the Giants look a decent underdog in this one. It is a shame that they are no longer being offered more than a Field Goal in terms of points, but I will take the 3 points on offer and look for Manning to outplay Cousins.

Both could have big games, but the Giants Defense may be able to make the bigger plays and continue their recent dominance of Washington after winning 12 of the last 16 games in the series.


Detroit Lions @ New York Jets Pick: The New York Jets are coming off a Monday Night disappointment to the Chicago Bears, but they could still take advantage of a Detroit team that had an emotional victory over the Green Bay Packers.

The spread looks crazy if you consider some of the performances these teams produced this season, but the Jets have a great spot in which to bounce back. The Defense is still playing well enough to contain Matt Stafford, especially as the Quarter Back and the Lions can be prone to mistakes, while Calvin Johnson is banged up.

Geno Smith is also a Quarter Back that has a number of mistakes in his game, but I like the spot the Jets are in, if only for a small interest.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Another team coming off a hugely disappointing performance are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the Pittsburgh Steelers look like they are being asked to cover too much in my opinion.

As well as the Steelers played against Carolina last week, Tampa Bay are a lot better against the run than people may think and I don't believe Le'Veon Bell and LaGarrette Blount have the same impact in this one.

Also, Mike Glennon is an upgrade on Josh McCown who showed he could get the ball to Vincent Jackson in the 2013 season and now he also has another huge body in Mike Evans to throw to now. Doug Martin is back to help run the ball against the Steel Curtain, or former Steel Curtain, and Tampa Bay have more Offensive success than some people may think.

Pittsburgh have received all the praise of the last week performance at Carolina, but they might not be able to win this one by more than a Touchdown.


Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: I really think Green Bay are in a strong position to come through Week 4 to level their season record, even if the Packers have played badly in their two previous road games. Aaron Rodgers has not been as sharp as I would have liked to have seen him, but he has every chance of bouncing back against a banged up Chicago Bears Secondary.

The Offensive Line hasn't helped Rodgers much at all, but this Chicago pass rush isn't as fierce as the one that the first three teams Green Bay have faced can produce and I think the Quarter Back will have enough time to make plays. If Chicago sell out to defend the pass, Eddie Lacy is capable of having his best game of the season to run the ball down their throat.

It isn't to say that this is going to be one-way traffic as Chicago should be able to have plenty of success with the ball in their hands too. Matt Forte should be able to run the ball and Jay Cutler is going to have the time to hit Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffrey or Martellus Bennett when throwing the ball too.

The difference between the teams in my opinion is that I think Aaron Rodgers is less likely to panic if his team is in a hole and not push too much to lead to more mistakes. On the other hand, Jay Cutler is less likely to manage himself and avoid trying to throw into tight spots when trying to get his team back into the game and I think the Packers win the turnover battle which ultimately decides this game.

Aaron Rodgers has a strong record of covering the spread coming off a loss, especially if that spread is less than a Touchdown, and I think the Packers win this game and cover.


Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans Pick: I was hoping that the Buffalo Bills would still have had slightly more than a Field Goal headstart in this one, but the Bills still look the shout in the road game at the Houston Texans.

CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson should be able to set EJ Manuel up by ripping off big gains on the ground and that should set the Bills up for the surprise.

The bigger key could be the Defense which should be able to give Ryan Fitzpatrick a few problems after his struggles a week ago. The Bills have been tough to run against all season and that will mean Fitzpatrick is asked to do more than he would normally be trusted to do.

The Bills Secondary have given up big numbers at times this season, but Buffalo have a powerful pass rush that could be all over Ryan Fitzpatrick if Arian Foster is unable to run the ball for the Texans.

Houston also could be overlooking the Bills with their 2-1 record, especially as they have to face Dallas and the Indianapolis Colts in their next two games, and I like the Bills to cover.


Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: If Jake Locker was in the line up, Tennessee would have a much stronger chance of keeping this competitive because the Indianapolis Defense is not one that will shut down too many opponents in my opinion. I don't come close to respecting Charlie Whitehurst's ability to do that in this game and it does feel it can result in another big loss for the Titans who are on back to back road games.

Andrew Luck is a top Quarter Back that should be able to sling the ball around once and effective ground attack is established through Trent Richardson/Ahmad Bradshaw. The latter is also a threat coming out of the backfield to pick up short passes, while Luck himself can scramble away from pressure.

The Colts would have been 2-1 if they had avoided mistakes against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 2 and I do think they are the better team here. I would back Luck over Whitehurst every day of the week and I think 9 out of 10 times Luck would lead his team to a comfortable win.

Indianpolis have covered in 5 straight games against Tennessee, but none have been for a spread of this size and the majority of those games have been competitive. Divisional games usually are but I like the Colts to find their way and cover by winning by double digits.


Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: This looks like being a huge game for the San Francisco 49ers who can't afford to take another loss, but that doesn't mean they are going to blow away the Philadelphia Eagles who have another Offensive personnel to win this game outright.

I think the 49ers are going to have a better game plan for this one than they have run the last couple of weeks, although it would be ironic if they overdo the rush compared with the pass as that may play into the hands of the Eagles.

Colin Kaepernick has Vernon Davis once again to help him move the chains through the air and I do think San Francisco can hit the Eagles through the air after seeing Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins dissect them at times.

However, the lack of a pass rush on the Defensive side of the ball will give Nick Foles a chance to punish a Secondary that has regressed from last season. LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles are big threats coming out of the backfield too so this could be a tough day for the 49ers Defense which has not played well against Drew Stanton last week.

Both teams could move the chains at will in this one and I also think there is something to be said about the way San Francisco have played in the second half compared with Philadelphia. The Eagles have shown their up-tempo Offense wears teams out and the 49ers have been heavily outscored in the fourth quarter which could see the Eagles come out with a late cover in this one, even if they don't manage to win the game.


New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys Picks: The New Orleans Saints and the Dallas Cowboys should both have a lot of success moving the ball in this one against two Defenses that are both not really up to the standard of the Offenses.

Both should score points pretty efficiently but the real difference in the game could come if the Saints can somehow slow down DeMarco Murray to the point that they are forcing Tony Romo to throw from third and long situations.

Rob Ryan should have his Defense fired up against his former team, but the Saints have to improve significantly on what they have produced so far this season if they are to beat the Dallas Cowboys. The Saints should have all success with their own Offense, but the question is whether the Defense will let them down as they have in the two losses they have suffered.

It is tough to see the Saints losing another game though and I think they will win the scoring duel with Dallas on Sunday night and I will back this team to cover.

0 Unit Picks: Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points, Oakland Raiders + 3.5 Points, San Diego Chargers - 12.5 Points, Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points

MY PICKS: New York Giants + 3 Points @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
New York Jets + 1.5 Points @ 1.92 SkyBet (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills + 3 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 7.5 Points @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles + 4 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 3 Points @ 2.08 Pinnacle (2 Unts)

Week 3: 8-2, + 9.82 Units
Week 2: 5-3, + 1.50 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 3.18 Units

Season 2014: 16-11, + 8.14 Units
Season 2013: 86-70-2, + 22.27 Units
Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

NFL Week 4 Picks 2013 (September 26-30)

It felt like a really tough Week 3, but the results weren't as bad as I perhaps expected- I will go into that before the Week 4 picks, but some of the tough breaks that went against the picks I made could have made this a much worse week than it turned out to be.

Week 3 Thoughts

Dallas Cowboys in control of the NFC East: It has been a while since the Dallas Cowboys were in the Play Offs, but they look like they could break that recent streak by winning the NFC East this season, especially if they can consistently perform to the level they did in Week 3.

Dallas are a talented team that has had the problem of playing flawless football one week against a tough opponent, but then making the stupid mistakes that cost them a much more winnable game the week after. The Cowboys moved to 2-1 last weekend, but importantly saw the rest of the NFC East all lose and Dallas do look the best team in the Division.

Two game leads over the New York Giants and the Washington Redskins don't mean anything after three games of the season, but the latter two teams have some serious issues to rectify, while the Philadelphia Eagles haven't played well since Week 1.

On current form and the way these teams are heading, even a late season collapse that has affected Dallas in recent years won't be detrimental to them moving into the post-season. All four NFC East teams are on the road this weekend and Dallas could certainly extend their lead in the Division if they can prove themselves as one of the better teams in the NFL and beat the San Diego Chargers in California.

It's too early to crown the Denver Broncos as the AFC representative in the SuperBowl: I love the way the Denver Broncos have been playing to open the new season and they do look the best team in the AFC at this moment of time, but it's too early to see suggest no other team has a chance in the AFC to play in the SuperBowl.

Peyton Manning has carved up teams in the regular season, but it is hard to ignore the fact that his teams have eight times lost their first game in the Play Offs and they have only reached 2 SuperBowls in his time as a Quarter Back. I love the way Manning plays and his Offensive weapons look incredibly difficult to stop, but Denver were beaten in their first Play Off game last season and it is rare to see teams start off so hot and hold that level for the whole season.

In recent seasons, we have seen teams get hot in December and use that to propel themselves through to the Play Offs so that would be another reason to hold off crowing Denver anything before the end of September, although I do consider them the Number 1 team in my Rankings right now.

Aldon Smith should not have been playing last weekend: It is clear that Aldon Smith has a big future in the NFL, but the recently turned 24 year old has some personal demons to deal with as he was arrested for his second DUI on Friday.

Smith has since checked in to a rehab centre which means he will be missing the next month for the San Francisco 49ers, but that makes me question why he was playing against Indianapolis if there were some question marks as to how he was feeling mentally for that game.

The 49ers were flat and I don't want to put that on the Smith issue (the lack of Offensive weapons was the bigger problem), but you would have expected the young man not to have been put on the field if there was even a suggestion that he wanted to go and get some help in rehab.

I would say that issue was badly handled by San Francisco whose team on the field is also in a spot of bother ahead of a big NFC West game on Thursday Night Football.

Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers getting into it on the bench: There are some people out there that love to make a big thing out of any thing they see and the arrival of mediums like Twitter means there is the instant response of millions of people.

It was no surprise that some believe there is a rift in the Green Bay Packers between Head Coach and Quarter Back, but I am not one of them- these are two competitive men that want to win every game and the Packers are 1-2 so some disagreements are to be expected.

With a bye week up next, I am expecting the Packers to get back into the groove in Week 5 and this incident will long be forgotten by then.

How long before Josh Freeman is benched? There are some issues that Josh Freeman may be going through on a personal level, but it is clear that Greg Schiano isn't a fan and I don't think Freeman sees his contract extended beyond this season at Tampa Bay.

There are times Freeman has looked good, but he makes too many mistakes and misses Receivers- Tampa Bay's Defense has kept them in games this season, bar the idiotic penalty from that unit that cost them their game at the New York Jets in Week 1, but the Offense has failed to put the points on the board which has led the team to a 0-3 start.

I'm not sure Mike Glennon is the answer just yet because of his mobility issues and he is a rookie who you don't want to put in a pressure situation that could slow down his improvement with confidence possibly being affected. Either Tampa Bay could trade for a starter to carry them through this season, or they could use their bye week in Week 5 to help Glennon through but I would be surprised if the move is made this week.

EDIT: I was writing this small section on Tuesday, but have seen that the move to Mike Glennon may have been made on Wednesday.

A possible London franchise by the end of the decade? That was what was written in the Daily Telegraph as the NFL heads to London for the first of two regular season games this time around, but I think one of the main points was ignored and is still to be discussed going forward.

While the London games sell-out, I am still very much convinced it is down to the fact that these are rare games and seen as a 'special event' rather than enough to sustain a franchise. I could be wrong, but I don't know how many fans of the NFL would be willing to set aside their own team to support a new franchise eight times a year.

I particularly would wonder how many people would pay to watch a full season at Wembley Stadium if a team as bad as the Jacksonville Jaguars was the franchise over here- would the ticket sales be adversely affected if the team started 0-4 or had three consecutive losing seasons?

I always would say yes- fans will come to one or two games, maybe where their favourite team is coming to town as the road team, but I can't imagine they would sell enough season tickets to make a franchise sustainable unless they were winning... The bottom line is, a winning franchise is not going to move from their current market (unless Los Angeles put in an offer they couldn't refuse) and that means any London team would likely be a 'bad' team and I don't believe we would see sell outs on a weekly basis unless a big name team was playing here.

London team watch: Talking about the London games, how about those teams going 1-11 heading into Week 4 with half the 0-3 teams in the NFL being scheduled to come over here.

Top Five

1) Denver Broncos (3-0): Even after what I have said above, this Offense looks like it will be very tough to stop, especially if their Running Backs can also get large chunks of yardage off the ground.

2) Seattle Seahawks (3-0): At the moment, there is no better team in the NFC.

3) New England Patriots (3-0): The New England Patriots Offense looked a little better on Sunday and I think they will only improve with the impending return of Rob Gronkowski.

4) New Orleans Saints (3-0): The Offense finally played up to what is expected of them, but there is still more room for improvement while Rob Ryan continues to get the best out of this Defense.

5) Chicago Bears (3-0): There have been a lot of positives on both sides of the ball for the Bears which continued with a total beating of the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road.

Bottom Five

32) Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3): I'd be surprised if Jacksonville move out of this position during the course of the season and if they don't 'win' the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft.

31) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3): The Defense is better than advertised, but the Offense can't score points and that means they won't be winning games any time soon unless that changes.

30) Minnesota Vikings (0-3): Adrian Peterson's daughter put it best: 'I can't believe you lost to the Browns'.

29) New York Giants (0-3): The Giants hit a real low by failing to score against the Carolina Panthers and ending up on the wrong end of a 38-0 shelling.

28) Pittsburgh Steelers (0-3): Pittsburgh have looked old, the Offense has struggled to maintain drives and are making too many mistakes, while the Defense can't win games on their own. London is very lucky to have the Steelers and the Vikings this weekend(!)

Week 4 Picks

Both the NFL and the NCAA College Football picks saw some late touchdowns go against them, but it could have been so much worse this week and I am glad to get out of it with the season still on the right side of zero.

Last weekend was weird in a number of ways- look at some of the strange plays that went against the picks during Week 3: I backed the Houston Texans and if someone had said they had only given up 65 yards at half time, you would never have guessed that they would be down by 11 points.

The Ravens had a pick-six and a punt return for Touchdowns, although they were much improved in the second half.

How about Green Bay leading by 3 with minutes ticking down and fumbling the ball on a fourth and inches when close to field goal range- that ball was returned for the winning Touchdown and saw that pick go down.

San Diego were up 4 points when giving up a Hail Mary Touchdown pass to Tennessee which saw that pick end in a push- it made it worse that the Titans, with Jake Locker, drove the length of the field in 2 minutes with no time outs.

Atlanta were up by 3 points with 4 minutes left and the ball on the Miami 20- Matt Bryant missed the 35 yard field goal that would have meant the Falcons would cover even if the Dolphins scored the winning Touchdown, but the miss and the ensuing Touchdown meant they missed the cover by 1 point.

Even with all that bad luck at the end of games, the picks ended with only a slight loss and that means we still see a profit for the season. Hopefully Week 4 isn't so erratic in terms of those plays at the end of games going against me after last weekend.


San Francisco 49ers @ St Louis Rams Pick: This is a big NFC West battle between two teams that are coming off back to back losses.

With one defeat already to a Divisional rival, the game is arguably more important for the San Francisco 49ers than the St Louis Rams who beat Arizona to open the season. The media have been focusing on Colin Kaepernick this week after his lacklustre performances against Seattle and Indianapolis, but Vernon Davis could be back in the line up and the Rams have given up a lot of yardage through the air.

After the way DeMarco Murray hammered the Rams on the ground, San Francisco's Offense should get on track this week with Kaepernick and Frank Gore being able to run the ball. The 49ers are likely going to stop a St Louis Offense being able to do the same as they are moving the ball at just 3.2 yards per clip this season and that means the pressure will be on Sam Bradford to keep the Offense on the field with his arm.

Bradford should have some success moving the ball through the air, but it is a big ask to do that throughout the game against this pass rush, even in the absence of Aldon Smith.

St Louis did give San Francisco problems last season, but the latter are 5-2-1 against the spread when coming off a loss even after the defeat to Indianapolis and they can bounce back here. 


Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have made the change at Quarter Back, but things could easily get worse before they get better for them as they play their last game before the bye.

Everything I have read suggests Mike Glennon is not ready to come in and play, but I believe Josh Freeman had lost all support and the move was always going to be made sooner rather than later. With Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams both a little banged up, it will be tough for Glennon to move the chains through the air in this one, even though Arizona have given up a lot of yards this season albeit against pretty solid signal callers.

Doug Martin may struggle to run the ball meaning the pressure will be on Glennon in this one and that isn't a great spot for the Buccaneers to be in.

The Cardinals stayed on the East Coast last week and I think Carson Palmer can make enough plays to help them come through a tough road game and get back to 2-2 in the NFC West. Arizona are 8-5 against the spread as the road underdog in the last couple of seasons and this Tampa Bay team doesn't deserve to be a favourite on current performances and with a rookie Quarter Back making his first start.


Pittsburgh Steelers @ Minnesota Vikings (in London) Pick: I know Minnesota have lost their starting Quarter Back, but it is not like they have a rookie or an inexperienced player taking over and I am not sure Pittsburgh deserve to be a field goal favourite over anyone right now.

I do think the Steelers are the better team in terms of talent, especially on the Defensive side of the ball, but they haven't played well enough to be the favourite by this margin.

Ben Roethlisberger will have success throwing the ball, but he will need his Offensive Line to be at their best and I also believe we are going to see a big game from Adrian Peterson with Jeremy Fulton opening holes for him.

If Peterson gets rumbling, Matt Cassel can make enough plays to help Minnesota cover this spread. Pittsburgh have been a poor favourite over the last twelve months, going 2-9 against the spread in that spot, and I think they've struggled enough this season to think they are laying too much in terms of points.


Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: I would be surprised if Indianapolis are not able to move the chains all day in this one and they look a team on the up. This could be a perfect letdown spot for them after their success at San Francisco last week, but playing a Divisional rival should keep them focused on the task at hand.

Indianapolis have a pretty balanced Offense, while Jacksonville have struggled in all three facets of an NFL game.

It will be hard for Blaine Gabbert to move the chains considering the pass rush that will likely be in his face, especially if the Jaguars go down by a couple of scores and I like the Colts to cover in this one.

The Jaguars are 5-12 against the spread as the home underdog in recent years and Indianapolis should prove to be good enough to cover for the second season in a row.


Seattle Seahawks @ Houston Texans Pick: There could be a lot of problems for Houston in this game if Andre Johnson is ruled out and I do think the line movement has changed enough for me to take an interest in the Seattle Seahawks.

Seattle's Defense will give Matt Schaub plenty of problems and this game could be more important to the Seahawks who want to show they are for real, while Houston could be flat after a poor loss in Baltimore.

It is easy to see that Houston could be 0-3 coming into this game as they recovered from a big deficit to beat San Diego in Week 1 and needed overtime after coming back from 8 points down to beat Tennessee before the loss last week.

I do feel Russell Wilson will make a couple more big plays than Matt Schaub in this one and that could be the difference in the game so I will back the Seattle team to win this game and cover the spread.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Denver Broncos Pick: Stopping Peyton Manning is going to be very difficult for the Philadelphia Eagles in this game and I think their Defense could have a hard time catching their breath in the altitude of Colorado. That will only make stopping Manning that much more difficult and there is no doubt that the Broncos will score points in this one.

The Eagles Defense could struggle in this altitude as they may have to last long drives against a methodical Manning, getting no time to recover their breath if the Offense keeps playing as fast as they do. If Michael Vick turns the ball over or the Eagles have a three and out, the Defense will not have much rest and that doesn't bode well for them.

With the way Denver's Offense has clicked early in the season, it is hard to see how they will be stopped in this one and I do like them to record yet another big win.

I just believe the Broncos will force turnovers and use those extra possessions to good advantage which will set them up for a cover of what looks a large spread at first glance.

Denver have improved to 7-2 against the spread as the home favourite with Peyton Manning behind Center.


Dallas Cowboys @ San Diego Chargers Pick: Out of the two teams, the Dallas Cowboys have the talent level and personnel on the Offense to move the chains with more consistency of the two teams and I do like the Cowboys to do that.

There will be times that Philip Rivers gets hot, but his Offensive Line could have at least 2 new starters this week and that doesn't bode well against a Dallas team that has managed to put a lot of pressure on the opposition Quarter Back through the first three weeks of the season.

If Dallas get that push up front, Rivers can get flustered and this Defense has shown a new found love for turning the ball over and that could be a big difference in the game.

As long as the Cowboys avoid mistakes when they have the ball, I see Dallas moving the chains whether they take to the air or pound the ball on the ground and I like the Cowboys to move to 3-1 in this one and perhaps increase their lead in the NFC East.


Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints Pick: As a Miami Dolphins fan, it has been a long time since the team has started 3-0 and earning a place in the Play Offs is the expectation for the team now.

However, I have watched every one of their games this season from start to finish and I have seen a team that has just gotten the breaks at certain times which has helped them get to this record. The game against Atlanta saw Ryan Tennehill engineer an awesome drive that resulted in the winning Touchdown with seconds left to play, but the Dolphins were outgained in yardage for the third straight game and were fortunate to win that game that the Falcons seemed to dominate.

Injuries are also hurting on the Defensive side of the ball in this one and I think it is a big ask for them to come to the Saints home with those injuries and win.

Ryan Tannehill is likely to find himself under pressure all night with the blitzes and pressure the Saints are able to generate and it will be tough for him to keep making plays against this Rob Ryan Defense.

I also have a feeling that this game doesn't matter as much to Miami as it does for New Orleans- the Dolphins host Baltimore next week in what could be a pivotal game for the Wild Card spots, while New Orleans will have seen the Atlanta defeat last night and figure this to be a big opportunity to increase their lead in the NFC South.

New Orleans have been dominant at home under Sean Payton, especially in primetime games. They are 9-3 against the spread in night games at home since Drew Brees signed from the San Diego Chargers, while they are 28-13 against the spread as the home favourite in recent seasons.

The Saints have covered as the home favourite in both games they have played here this season and I like them to make this three in a row.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 3 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 8 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 1.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 7 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 14-11-1, + 1.86 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units