NBA Picks March 2017 (March 13-19)

The difference between putting a winning week together to one that produced a lost ultimately came down to the Washington Wizards coming back from 21 points down at half time to beat the Portland Trail Blazers on Saturday. That's a tough break when it comes down to one game and means March has not begun with the momentum I would have liked.

There are still basically three weeks of the month to go to get things moving in a more positive direction as the regular season winds down and the Play Offs approach at a rapid rate.

This is the time of the season when I have begun to wonder which of the underdogs have given up on the season and are looking to improve their lottery position in a bid to create a better roster for the 2017/18 season. I've got a couple of teams on the list who certainly look in 'wind down' mode or, as they call it, 'player evaluation' mode and I won't be backing them regardless of the number of points they are being given for the remainder of the regular season.

On the other hand this might be the final couple of weeks when teams really push for their Seeding before players are rested for the Play Offs which is another point to keep in mind.


Monday 12th March
Dallas Mavericks @ Toronto Raptors Pick: Barring an incredible collapse at the end of the season for the Memphis Grizzlies, the top seven in the Western Conference Play Offs have likely been decided and they are battling for their Seedings. That means there is only one place left for the other teams in the Conference and the Dallas Mavericks are one of a number of teams looking to work their way into the top eight.

They continue searching for a way to close the 2.5 game gap to the Denver Nuggets who would be the Number 8 Seed if the season was to come to a close today. Dropping the last game to the Phoenix Suns was a big blow to the Mavericks, but they have put together a decent roster with players that might not have been wanted elsewhere and they will be looking to bounce back as they begin this Eastern Conference road trip.

First up is the Toronto Raptors who are slipping in the Play Off standings in the Eastern Conference and trying desperately to maintain their spot with a home First Round series in April. Toronto have lost four of their last six games, although the last five have been on the road, and the concern for them has to be the struggles they have had without Kyle Lowry who might not be at 100% if he returns for the Play Offs.

The Raptors have had a few issues at both ends of the court and losing a playmaker like Lowry just increases the pressure on DeMar DeRozan to pull them through. Dallas can match the Raptors on the boards which will increase the pressure on the home team and the Mavericks have been shooting the ball well enough to keep this one close.

Toronto have not played well against the supposedly weaker teams in the NBA as they are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine against a team with a losing record, while they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six hosting a team who have a losing record on the road. Add in the fact that Dallas are 18-6 against the spread in their last twenty-four games following a loss and I will be looking for the Mavericks to keep this one competitive by taking the points with the road underdog.


Washington Wizards @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: I have backed against the Washington Wizards twice in a row and so far been rewarded with a push and a loss. They have twice in a row come back from huge deficits in those wins at the Sacramento Kings and Portland Trail Blazers and both of those wins have come in Overtime, but I am going to back the Minnesota Timberwolves to beat them on Monday.

While the Washington Wizards have used their latest positive run to get within 2 games of the Eastern Conference leading Cleveland Cavaliers, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been much improved out of the All-Star Break and are 3.5 games off a Play Off place themselves.

The Timberwolves were beaten last time out against the Milwaukee Bucks, but that was on a back to back after holding off the Golden State Warriors in their last home game on Friday. The improvement on the Defensive side of the court will give them a chance in this one, although the Washington Wizards have one of the best Offensive rotations in the NBA and players like Bradley Beal and John Wall who can turn on the after-jets to pull this team away from anyone.

However I do think Minnesota can challenge the Wizards on the boards and have found the Offensive groove to surprise their visitors. Minnesota are much better at home and they have gone 5-1 against the spread in their last six games here against Washington.

Washington are 1-9-1 against the spread in their last eleven games on the road against a team who have a losing record at home. On the other hand, Minnesota are 16-5 against the spread against the last twenty-one teams they have faced with a winning record and they have covered in the last five games after a loss. I will lay the point with the home favourite and look for them to hold off the surging Washington Wizards for a big win.


LA Clippers @ Utah Jazz Pick: The Number 4 Seed in the Western Conference is going to be battled out between the LA Clippers and Utah Jazz through the rest of the season, but this game is more important to the Jazz. They have already lost twice to the Clippers this season and losing this game will mean they have lost the tie-breaker which could be very important come the end of the season with just 1 game keeping these teams apart in the Standings at the moment.

Both teams have been playing well over the last few games and so this should be a very good game between two teams who may feel they can make a real impact in the Play Offs this season.

There are some similarities with what the teams want to achieve on the court with the Defensive side of their performances the key to sparking the Offensive effort. Both defend the three point line effectively, which is important for the kind of teams they will see in the Play Offs, and the size means both the Jazz and the Clippers like dominating on the boards, although Utah may be missing Rudy Gobert and Derrick Favors for this one.

Being at home in a spot of revenge may just give Utah the edge in this one and they have been a very good small favourite to back as they are 9-4 against the spread when favoured by less than 4 points this season.

I have to offer the LA Clippers a lot of respect having played a lot of good basketball of late and they have a very good recent record against Utah which makes it hard to back against them. However I do think the Jazz have a couple of factors in their favour including the schedule spot for them and this is a game Utah have to win. That isn't always the best position to back a team, but I do think Utah can lay the point and come away with the win and snap their poor run against the Clippers.


Orlando Magic @ Sacramento Kings Pick: The Sacramento Kings and Orlando Magic might already be looking ahead to the Draft as promising seasons have fallen apart. The Magic have been disappointing in a weak Eastern Conference and allowed big off-season signing Serge Ibaka move on to the Toronto Raptors before the trade deadline. Of course that was nothing compared with the Sacramento Kings who finally moved on from the DeMarcus Cousins era which promised so much but failed to really ignite.

With both teams looking to improve Draft position in the coming weeks, it might be tough to actually make a pick in this game as it could be one that both the Magic and Kings prefer to lose. However I do think playing at home might be important for Sacramento who have not played that badly of late and been close to a win or two during their eight game losing run.

The Kings have been shooting the ball effectively, especially from the three point range, and now face an Orlando Defensive unit which have allowed teams to hit from that range at 44% over their last five games. Neither team have played well Defensively, but Orlando have perhaps found consistent scoring a little more difficult to come by and that may show up here.

Orlando have won three of their last eight games which may encourage some support, but they have not covered in their last four when facing a team with a winning record lower than 40% and they have not covered in their last four against the Western Conference. The Kings are not much better and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last four against Orlando.

However I do think the Kings have shown a little more efficiency shooting the ball and I do think that makes the difference for them. It will keep Orlando in a position to finish with the fourth worst record in the NBA and I like the Kings in this one.


Tuesday 14th March
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: The Cleveland Cavaliers are barely holding onto their Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and the players are admitting they have to start performing with the Play Offs fast approaching. The Cavaliers have lost five of their last seven games as they have allowed the Boston Celtics and Washington Wizards to close in on them.

One of those losses has come against the Detroit Pistons who have rallied together and moved into the Number 7 Seed in the Eastern Conference. There is still work for them to do as they are only 1.5 games clear of the Chicago Bulls in the Number 9 spot, but the Pistons do feel a little better about themselves having won four of their last five games.

There is still some feeling that the Pistons are not all on the same page as they would like to be, but they have been rallying together to try and force a Play Off spot. Detroit have the size to really give Cleveland some problems in this one, especially with the Cavaliers searching for another big man following the injury to Andrew Bogut just seconds into his career with Cleveland.

The Pistons have been shooting the ball pretty well, but Cleveland have shown signs they are returning to the Defensive levels that have taken them to back to back NBA Finals. The Cavaliers haven't held a team to fewer than 100 points in their last six games, but they have been close to turning a corner, and returning JR Smith gives them a three point shooting star that can turn this game in their favour.

Detroit have a good record in Cleveland, but they are just 0-5 against the spread when given 8 or more points as the underdog this season. The home team is also 4-0 against the spread in the last four in this series too and I will back Cleveland to snap a poor run and get back into winning ways with a solid home win.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: It looks like the Oklahoma City Thunder have an outside chance to try and close to the LA Clippers in the Number 5 Seed in the Western Conference, and they have moved above the slumping Memphis Grizzlies in the standings. They are expected to beat the struggling Brooklyn Nets who have the inside track into the lottery for the NBA Draft, although Brooklyn have showed some life having won three of their last seven games.

The factor that makes the Nets dangerous in this game is their ambitions to shoot from the three point line, regardless of the player who has the ball, and they have been producing at a really good clip of late. The Thunder don't defend the three point line as well as they would like, but they do have Russell Westbrook who is able to take over games when Oklahoma City need him to.

The Thunder do have the size to dominate the boards and that will give them a chance to pull away from the Brooklyn Nets and they do have the best player on the court. That should be enough for most people to expect Oklahoma City to cover on the road, but I think the Brooklyn Nets shooting from the three point range can keep them in this one.

Oklahoma City are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games against the Brooklyn Nets and this game comes between the Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors where the focus of the Thunder players would have been much more important.

The Thunder are just 2-8 against the spread when visiting a team who have won fewer than 40% of home games and they have not covered in their last four against a team with a losing record. Brooklyn have also gone 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games when coming off a win and I am going to play the home underdog who are being heavily opposed to at least cover the points.


Wednesday 15th March
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Minnesota Timberwolves continue hoping they have not left things too late to get into the Play Off spots in the Western Conference, but they remain 3.5 games behind the Denver Nuggets and the games are beginning to run out. They have a tough couple of games at top Eastern Conference opponents in the next couple of days, but Minnesota cannot allow themselves to slip up as they have been in fine form out of the All-Star Break.

The first of those games comes at the Boston Celtics who reclaimed the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference thanks to the Timberwolves who knocked off the Washington Wizards last time out. There is also a 2.5 game gap between the Celtics and the Cleveland Cavaliers for the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference so this is clearly a big game for both teams.

It is the recent form of the Timberwolves, who have finally understood what is expected of them on both sides of the court, that has intrigued me. I think they can make this number of points count in this game and Minnesota have the size to win the rebounding battle to give them a chance to win this game.

And I do mean actually upset the Celtics and win this game outright. Minnesota have been shooting the ball really well and have been improved Defensively which suggests they can match up well with the erratic Celtics in this one. It certainly looks like a lot of points for the Timberwolves to be receiving despite their poor recent record when visiting the TD Garden.

However Boston are just 5-11 against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record this season. They are facing a Minnesota team who have gone 17-4 against the spread in their last twenty-one games when facing a team with a winning record and I think the Timberwolves do enough to make sure they stay within the points in this one.


Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: The San Antonio Spurs have a chance to finish the season with the best record in the Western Conference although this is a team who doesn't really put a lot of stock into that. They will instead be looking to keep doing things the right way in preparation for the Play Offs and there was good news for the Spurs on Wednesday with LaMarcus Aldridge cleared to return to the team.

Kahwi Leonard continues to silently become one of the best players in the NBA and the new look Spurs have not missed a beat even though inspirational leader Tim Duncan has been retired for several months. Most would have expected a drop off from the standards San Antonio have produced during the Duncan era, but Gregg Popovich has helped them maintain those this season.

They should be too good for the Portland Trail Blazers who are in a difficult position in their schedule as they continue to chase the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers were embarrassed in New Orleans last night, but they will be motivated to bounce back even if the back to back is a tough spot for them.

Portland will have to win the battle on the boards to give themselves a chance to even stay within this huge mark and I do think it is a tough ask for them. They are not quite as good as San Antonio at both ends of the court and the Trail Blazers are only 2-4 against the spread when set as the double digit underdog this season.

The team also have a poor 2-7 record against the spread in their last nine games in San Antonio and I think the Spurs can cover a big number at home.


Thursday 16th March
Tough day of games today so will be back with any picks tomorrow.


Friday 17th March
Boston Celtics @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The regular season games are beginning to run down but the Boston Celtics could still finish in any of the top three positions in the Eastern Conference. They are 2.5 games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers at the Number 1 Seed, but also just 1.5 games ahead of the Number 3 Seed Washington Wizards and the Celtics are looking for back to back road wins in the next couple of days without star player Isaiah Thomas.

A bruised knee will keep Thomas out of contention, but the Celtics are playing two teams in the Eastern Conference who are perhaps focusing on improving their lottery position. The first of those is the Brooklyn Nets who have actually shown some life now they are almost certainly assured of having the worst record in the NBA.

The Nets are on a back to back, which is a concern, but they have won four of their last nine games and won the battle of New York by beating the Knicks twice over the last week. This is a team who have been shooting the ball very well and it will be able to put some pressure on Boston who have relied on Thomas to spark their play when the chips are down.

The size of the Brooklyn players should mean they can have some success on the boards too and I do think they can make use of the points being given to them. They do have a 1-4 record against the spread in their last five home games with the Celtics which includes a blow out loss in November, but Boston have not been a great team to back when being asked to cover these big numbers.

Boston are 0-9 against the spread when favoured by 8 or more points this season and missing Thomas is a setback for them. While I do think the Celtics ultimately win this game, Brooklyn can make them work for it and I will take the points with the home underdog.


Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons Pick: The Toronto Raptors starting rotation might be a little more rested than you would expect for a team on a back to back after they were effectively blown out by the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday. The Raptors have continued to struggle for consistency without injured Kyle Lowry and they might be in danger of losing their grip on a home First Round series in the Play Offs.

While the Raptors might be very keen on getting back to winning ways, at least they are assured of a Play Off berth which is more than the Detroit Pistons can say. The Pistons are currently the Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference, but they have suffered back to back losses which has left them with the same record as the Number 9 Miami Heat.

Playing well at home is going to be the key for Detroit who were beaten easily by Cleveland and Utah in their last couple of games. This looks like a game where both Detroit and Toronto have been playing at a similar level in recent games, but the home advantage could be telling for the Pistons.

Detroit have bounced back with an 8-1 record against the spread in their last nine games following a loss and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five at home. They face a Raptors team who have not covered in their last four games on the second half of a back to back and the Pistons are also 16-6 against the spread when favoured by between 4 and 6.5 points this season.

There will be runs for both teams that should keep the game competitive for large portions of it but I will look for Detroit to improve their recent 2-6 record against the spread when hosting Toronto and I will look for the Pistons to cover.


Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: The Western Conference Play Offs are beginning to take shape with teams getting close to the mark of locking up their Seedings. The Houston Rockets are almost certainly going to be the Number 3 Seed in the Conference and there is a lot of confidence being built at the team which is important for them.

One team that looks like they won't be making the Play Offs is the New Orleans Pelicans despite the big move ahead of the trade deadline to bring in DeMarcus Cousins. I voiced my concerns that it would take time for Cousins and Anthony Davis to get on the same page on the court, despite how well they get on with one another off the court, and that has proven to be the case.

Cousins might be absent for this one while Davis has been banged up and battling through but there is now a 6 game gap between the Denver Nuggets in the Number 8 spot in the Western Conference and the Pelicans. With the Rockets now having an advantage when it comes to the rebounding statistics, it is hard to see how New Orleans will stay with them the high powered scoring in this one.

The Rockets crushed New Orleans here at the end of February to improve to 6-2 against the spread in the last eight of the series. Houston are also 15-6 against the spread in their last twenty-one road games against a team with a losing record at home and they might be catching the Pelicans at the right time in their schedule.

If Houston get hot from the three point mark as they can, I think they pull away and earn another win in New Orleans along with another cover.

MY PICKS: 13/03 Dallas Mavericks + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
13/03 Minnesota Timberwolves - 1 Point @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
13/03 Utah Jazz - 1 Point @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
13/03 Sacramento Kings - 2 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
14/03 Cleveland Cavaliers - 8 Points @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
14/03 Brooklyn Nets + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
15/03 Minnesota Timberwolves + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
15/03 San Antonio Spurs - 11.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/03 Brooklyn Nets + 9 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
17/03 Detroit Pistons - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/03 Houston Rockets - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

March 13-19 Update: 5-6, - 1.32 Units
March 6-12 Final: 7-8-1, - 1.51 Units
March 1-5 Final: 4-5, - 1.28 Units

March Update: 11-13-1, - 2.79 Units
February Final: 32-20-3, + 9.69 Units
January Final: 26-28-1, - 4 Units
December Final: 19-23, - 5.51 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Season 2017: 109-105-5, + 1.05 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units

NBA Picks January 2017 (January 16-22)

It is Martin Luther King Day in the United States on Monday which means a national holiday and the NBA games being played throughout the day.

I didn't make any picks over the last weekend because I didn't really have the research time I would like to devote and it would have been less prepared than normal.

The month is in a winning position, but I want to kick on with some consistency this week and really get things moving in a positive direction.


Monday 16th January
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks Pick: The New York Knicks are on the bring of being completely destroyed as they continue slipping off the pace in the Eastern Conference. This is a franchise that will always receive far more media attention than a team with a losing record should be getting, but a big market also means big demands from the fans and the Knicks are falling far short of those at the moment.

Phil Jackson was supposed to be overseeing a turn around for the Knicks, but his two and a half years in the job have been inconsistent to say the least. No one has been impressed with the Head Coaching appointments under Jackson who looks to blame everyone but himself for the mess the Knicks keep finding themselves in.

Kristaps Porzingis will be a big miss on Monday as he battles an injury, while we are only seven days removed from Derrick Rose walking out on the team and almost calling time on his Knicks career. Now we've had a piece in the media that suggests Carmelo Anthony could waive his 'no trade' clause and this might be the closest we have come to seeing Anthony get ready to leave Gotham.

It all doesn't bode well for the Knicks who host the Atlanta Hawks in the Garden on Monday and who are facing a team that looks to be building momentum. Atlanta were supposed to be big trade players with some of their veteran pieces expected to be moved on, but they have won eight of their last nine games and look to be in a much better place mentally than the Knicks.

The Hawks look to be matching up well with the Knicks and have used strong Defensive performances to spark their winning run. I would expect Atlanta to win the battles on the board and I do think they can snap their 0-4 run against the spread in the last four against the New York Knicks. Atlanta look to be in a positive state of mind heading to Madison Square Garden and I will back them to cover the points in this one.


Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The Philadelphia 76ers will have to have a special second half of the season if they are serious about getting into the Play Offs and everything is possible when you Trust The Process. Joel Embiid is still on a minutes restriction and isn't playing in back to backs, but he will be returning to the starting line up after missing the 76ers loss at the Washington Wizards on Saturday.

That loss snapped a three game winning run for the 76ers, but it is clear this is a team that is playing with more confidence than arguably at any time over the last four seasons. The 76ers had been very competitive before the 16 point loss to Washington, but having their star player back in the line up should mean they are much more competitive when they head to The Bradley Center.

It won't be an easy game for the 76ers as they face a young and hungry Milwaukee Bucks team who look like a Play Off team in the making in the Eastern Conference. The Bucks have been a little inconsistent over the last couple of weeks, but that is not a big surprise when you think of the youthfulness of this squad and the usual ups and downs young players will have.

The Bucks are capable of covering this number when you think how well they have been playing Offensively, but I think the 76ers keep this close because of the Defensive problems the home team have been having. They did cover this number in a win over the Miami Heat last week, but Milwaukee are just 1-2 against the spread as the favourite of 7 points or higher this season and this Philadelphia team have been playing much better than the Heat in recent games.

Philadelphia are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games in Milwaukee, but I think the 76ers can make this number of points count and stay within it.


Charlotte Hornets @ Boston Celtics Pick: The Boston Celtics are not only expected to be an Eastern Conference Play Off team, but they are expected to be in a position to perhaps host at least two Play Off series. There are suggestions that the Celtics may even make a big trade to put themselves in a position to challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers for supremacy in the Eastern Conference.

They are facing a Charlotte Hornets team who have been sliding in the Eastern Conference and have been knocked out of the top eight in the East this past weekend. The Hornets have lost six of their last seven games and are close to dropping below 0.500 for the first time this season, while Charlotte also conclude a road trip on Monday in which they have lost four in a row.

A close loss to the Detroit Pistons in the first of those hurt Charlotte, but they have since been beaten comfortably at San Antonio, Houston and Philadelphia and this is a big test for a team who have lost confidence. There have been struggles on the Offensive side of the ball and that has led to some holes Defensively which has seen Charlotte allow at least 102 points in their last seven games.

Defensive performances have been something of an issue for Boston in recent games too, but they are doing enough on the other side of the court to win six of their last seven games. Barring a fourth quarter collapse at the Toronto Raptors, Boston would have been riding a long winning run into this game and they will also likely have a boost with Avery Bradley returning to the roster with his superior Defensive skills.

The Celtics are 18-6 against the spread as a favourite of fewer than 8 points this season and Charlotte are 3-5 against the spread as an underdog of fewer than that number. It has to be noted that Charlotte have a very strong recent record when visiting Boston, but they are 1-6 against the spread in the last seven in this series and I like the home Celtics to win and cover in this one.


Tuesday 17th January
Only a real sloppy opening to the fourth quarter prevented the Atlanta Hawks from making it a 3-0 day, but I am always happy with a winning start to the week. I am looking to keep that going on Tuesday.

Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets Pick: The Toronto Raptors are only a couple of games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference and they do look the closest challenges to prevent the Cavs from making it three Finals appearances in a row. There are some suggestions that the Raptors will hit the trade market to improve, but the chemistry in the current roster is very good and one they may not want to mess around with too much.

The Raptors head off on a three game road trip at three teams with losing records in the Eastern Conference beginning with this tilt at the Barclays Center against the Brooklyn Nets who have the worst record in the NBA. It has been really tough for the Nets who have lost ten in a row and will be favourites to finish with the worst record in the NBA this season as they have continued to struggle at both ends of the court.

The Nets have given up at least 101 points in each of those ten losses and it is made worse by the fact they have not broken triple digits themselves in six of those games. That includes being blown out by the Toronto Raptors in Canada last week and I think it will be difficult for Brooklyn to narrow that gap on Tuesday.

My one concern has to be that Toronto head to Philadelphia for a game on Wednesday night and might be overlooking the poor Nets. The 76ers might have a losing record, but they are a team in form so Toronto could be gearing up for that challenge. However I think the Raptors should have too much Offensively for Brooklyn in this one and I expect Toronto to find a way to move away from the Nets over the course of 48 minutes.

Toronto are 5-1 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season and I will look for them to cover a big number on the road.


Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat Pick: The Miami Heat could decide to make some big moves in the trade market to get them ready for a better 2017/18 season as this one is looking a write off by each passing week. Only the Brooklyn Nets have a weaker record than the Miami Heat in the NBA this season although the Heat do play a lot of their next few games at home to try and improve.

Things might get a little more comfortable for the Heat going forward, but the Houston Rockets come into town as one of the better teams in the NBA. After a couple of setbacks, Houston blew out the Brooklyn Nets last time out and they will look to conclude this mini road trip at the weakest teams in the Eastern Conference with another win before returning home.

The Heat are off a six game road trip where they went 1-5 and they have now lost ten of their last eleven games as the Play Off picture moves into the horizon. This is a difficult test for Miami against a hot shooting Houston Rockets team who have been strong from the three point range and that could be a the key in helping them get over this number.

Houston have been very strong when visiting teams with losing records as they are 9-3 against the spread in that spot this season while the Miami Heat are 3-7 against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record.

You can't argue that this is a big number to cover when you think Miami have been good enough Defensively to challenge teams and they do have a good record when given 7 plus points as an underdog. The Heat are 8-4 against the spread in that spot, but I think Houston will have too much firepower for them and they can improve their 6-2 record against the spread in the last eight in this series.


Denver Nuggets @ LA Lakers Pick: The Denver Nuggets visited London last week and blew out the Indiana Pacers and followed that up with an impressive win over the Orlando Magic on Martin Luther King Day. There are still some questions to answer Defensively, but Denver have been very strong on the other side of the court and will feel they can keep the winning run going when they visit the LA Lakers.

The Nuggets might be catching the Lakers at the right time with the latter on a four game losing run and having some problems at both ends of the court. In that run, the Lakers have given up at least 102 points in each game, but they have yet to reach triple digits as some of the younger players on the roster have hit a wall.

It is possible that the Lakers get back on track Offensively against this Denver team who have allowed 118 points per game in their last five games and allowed teams to shoot 50% from the field. However Denver will feel confident in a shoot out with the points they have been producing Offensively and they are facing a Lakers Defense that has allowed almost 49% from the field over their last five games.

Denver have a strong 6-0 record against the spread in their last six visits to the Lakers and that overrides my concern that they have gone 0-5 against the spread in their last five in the second half of a back to back. They did play early on Monday which means more time to prepare for this game and I think the Nuggets are playing well enough to take the points as the underdog.

This will be a close game because of the way the Nuggets have played on the Defensive side of the court, but I like them with the small number of points.


Wednesday 18th January
I have to admit I was a little frustrated to see the Toronto Raptors decide to rest Kyle Lowry for the first time this season on Tuesday which meant they actually went off as 8 point favourites rather than the 11.5 point favourites they were earlier in the day. So technically the Raptors covered, but missed out for me as they were 10 point winners which meant a 1-2 day.

You have to be careful of this time of the season as teams are more likely to give players a rest with one eye on the post-season already, but it is a haphazard task.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Washington Wizards Pick: A strong home record has sparked the Washington Wizards who have moved up to Number 5 in the Eastern Conference. Only the two NBA Finalists from last season have more home wins to this point than the Wizards who have won twelve in a row in this Arena and looking to make it lucky number thirteen when they host the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday.

There is plenty of confidence coursing through the roster in Washington who have won five of their last six games as they look to make a return to the Play Offs having missed out last season. A lot of the success has come thanks to Bradley Beal and John Wall and what they have been able to do on the Offensive side of the court and Washington have responded by scoring at least 100 points in seven straight games.

However don't sleep on what Scott Brooks has instilled on the Defensive side of the court and the Wizards are going to need to make stops against the Grizzlies if they want their winning run to continue. Memphis have been a little more up and down in recent games with some big wins followed by some disappointing losses but they are a dangerous team who Defend against the three point shot very effectively and also are big enough to challenge most teams in the rebounding category.

That is an area where Washington have excelled too and could be part of the reason why the Wizards are able to extend their 7-4 record against the spread when hosting a team with a winning record. Washington also have gone 9-5 against the spread when favoured by fewer than 5 points this season and I think they can win this game with their home court building an aura for visitors to overcome.

Memphis don't have a great recent record here anyway, finishing 1-4 against the spread in their last five visits to Washington, and I think they might give up a little too much Defensively to stay with the home team. I will back the Wizards to continue their strong form at home and cover.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: A poor run of form has seen the Charlotte Hornets not only slip under 0.500 for the first time this season, but they have also fallen out of the top eight places in the Eastern Conference. The same happened to the Portland Trail Blazers in the Western Conference on Tuesday as their inconsistent results continue to see the team flounder seven games below 0.500.

A return home might be a benefit for the Hornets who lost all five games on a road trip, although losing seven of eight overall has to have dented some of the confidence. Head Coach Steve Clifford has urged the team to perform better on the Defensive side of the court as he feels Charlotte have gotten away from that aspect of their game which has sparked the rest of the team.

That is going to be tested by the Portland Trail Blazers who have been strong Offensively which isn't a surprise with CJ McCollum and Damian Lillard in the back court, but their own Defensive issues have been clear to all. The Trail Blazers have been up and down on that aspect of their game but will feel they can at least challenge the Charlotte Hornets off a long road trip and use their own Offensive power to keep the pressure on their hosts.

It is important for the Portland Trail Blazers to stay with Charlotte early in this one having fallen into a hole in the first quarter against the Washington Wizards last time out. They should be able to score enough points to remain competitive and Portland do have a 10-4 record against the spread in their last fourteen games against Charlotte.

Portland have been playing the boards well in recent games and I think they can make use of the points being given to them in this game.


New York Knicks @ Boston Celtics Pick: There is a lot of unrest behind the closed doors at Madison Square Garden as the New York Knicks have slipped down the Eastern Conference. Problems have only intensified with news that Carmelo Anthony may be unhappy with Phil Jackson and rumours swirl that the Knicks may be ready to ask their superstar to waive his 'no trade' clause.

Things could have unravelled on the court, but the Knicks have at least shown signs of fight in recent games with their dominance on the glass enabling them to stay in games. However they have failed to get over the line and put a run of wins together and that means New York head to their rivals Boston off the pace in the Eastern Conference Play Off picture.

The Knicks could have Kristaps Porzingis back in the line up having missed a few games with injury and they have been decent Offensively in recent games with Derrick Rose looking more like his old self. However they need to finish and that won't be easy against the Boston Celtics who are still chasing the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference and potentially adding to their roster in the coming weeks.

Boston have a closer in Isaiah Thomas who has come up big in the fourth quarter to help Boston win seven of their last eight games and they will be confident they can do enough to keep their wins going. Avery Bradley is back to give them more Defensive security having just had some difficulty making stops at times, but this is a Knicks team who can score points when all their scorers are out on the court.

With that in mind, this does look like a lot of points for the Boston Celtics to cover even against a rival who they would love to embarrass. The Celtics have gone 3-1 against the spread in their last four home games against the New York Knicks, but Boston are 0-4 against the spread when favoured by 8 or more points this season. It isn't to say the Knicks have thrived as a big underdog, but they can score enough points to stay with Boston in this one and I will take the underdog on the road.


Thursday 18th January
Don't ask me how the Washington Wizards didn't cover against the Memphis Grizzlies but only gave us a push. The referees were at fault by offering up the Grizzlies a debatable foul and then not calling one on Marc Gasol which would have given the Wizards two free throws with seven seconds left that might have been enough for the cover. That meant Wednesday saw the picks go 1-1-1, but I should be up this week with the right amount of fortune behind me, so I am disappointed to this point.

Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks Pick: Both teams are playing the second half of a back to back set on their schedule and it should be noted that the Washington Wizards have not impressed in this spot through the season. They are 1-7 in the second half of these games, but the sole win came over the New York Knicks and I do think Washington can do the same again as they continue their hot roll.

The Wizards and the Knicks both won on Wednesday evening, but the Knicks look like they will be shorthanded again in this one and will need the back ups to make big plays for them. The Knicks do still have the likes of Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony who can produce big numbers for the team, but they will have their hands full with this Washington team who have won six of their last seven games.

Washington are not as good on the road as they are at home, but they have won on their last five visits to Madison Square Garden and they have covered the spread each time. In fact Washington have improved to 8-2-1 against the spread in the last eleven games in the series with the New York Knicks and I expect the Offensive power to give them the edge in this one too.

It looks like New York will be missing Kristaps Porzingis, Joakim Noah and Lance Thomas, but they have still dominated the boards in the last couple of games which have given them a chance to win both games. The Wizards do have some decent size to them though and they have the players who can expose some of the Defensive problems that the New York Knicks have been having for much of the season.

We have now seen Washington score triple digit points in eight games in a row and I think they will have the edge in this one. I like the Wizards as the favourites at the 'World's Most Famous Arena' and I will back them to win this one and cover.


Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs Pick: If the Play Offs were to begin today, both the San Antonio Spurs and the Denver Nuggets would be playing in the Western Conference post-season. The goals for each team are much different though with the Spurs considered a genuine contender to win the Finals, while the Denver Nuggets will have to battle over the next four months to merely make the top eight in the West.

The Nuggets are playing well at this moment in time with three straight wins and finding an Offensive groove that will make them dangerous. However none of those wins have come against the top tier of teams in the NBA and so you can understand why they are being given as many points as they are in this one.

It was only earlier this month that Denver were blown out easily enough by the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs so they have some room to bridge to be more competitive on the road. This might be the best time to try and earn revenge over the Spurs who have lost two of their last four games and didn't cover in a win over the Minnesota Timberwolves in that time either.

San Antonio are also getting set to visit the Cleveland Cavaliers and could easily be overlooking a team who are six games under 0.500 who they blew out a couple of weeks ago. The Spurs have not been at their best on the Defensive side of the court and Denver are doing enough Offensively to keep this one closer than it was when they last met and I do like the Nuggets with the points.

The Spurs have to be respected as a team who have gone 6-5 against the spread when being asked to cover these big numbers, but this might be a bad spot for them. Hopefully Denver can make a fast start to build confidence and I will take the points and look for the road team to stay within it.


Friday 20th January
I am feeling a little frustrated with the NBA Picks as it could easily have been a much better week than the one I am enjoying. Washington have twice tried to mess up an easy cover by blowing a huge lead in the fourth quarter, while the Denver Nuggets missed some key free throws which at least would have put them within the number.

The only thing I am feeling good about is I am identifying the correct games, I just need a little bit more luck down the stretch to get ahead of the numbers.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: I actually can't remember the last time the Philadelphia 76ers had as many positive vibes as they have at this moment. It has been a long time since the 76ers could say they have won seven of their last ten games and they have a chance to win three in a row for the second time in the last week when they host the Portland Trail Blazers.

One question is whether they will be playing Joel Embiid in this game or on Saturday as they continue to hold out their new star player from back to back spots on the schedule. The 76ers will be playing in Atlanta tomorrow, but I think they want to keep the momentum going from a big win over the Toronto Raptors and that means Embiid is likely to get the start in this one.

This number did jump out at me immediately and, barring Embiid being left out, it is a surprising one to me. The Portland Trail Blazers have lost three in a row, including the first two games of this Eastern Conference road trip, and I am not sure they deserve to be favourites in the game.

Philadelphia have been playing well at both ends of the court in recent games and they have been fired up by Embiid and the confidence he exudes. Other players have begun to feel more comfortable in the system and the 76ers are 3-0 against the spread this season when set as the underdog of less than three points like they are here. On the other side of the coin, Portland are just 4-4 against the spread as the small favourite and they have a 1-3-1 record against the spread in their last five games in Philadelphia.

The confidence in the home locker room has reached levels not seen in recent seasons and this 76ers team truly believe they can get back into the Play Off mix. On current form they should be the underdog in this one and I will back them to cover.


Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic Pick: The Milwaukee Bucks have fallen back out of the tight and congested Eastern Conference Play Off places thanks to a run of three losses in a row, but they can bounce back over the next two days. A double header against the two teams from Florida should give the Bucks the chance to put a couple of wins on the board and get back above 0.500, although they can't afford to take any team lightly.

The first of those games comes at the Orlando Magic who are coming in off a long road trip and who have lost seven of their last eight games. The eye test says the Magic are a lot worse than their record indicates as they continue to have a hard time understanding the Defensive schemes Frank Vogel has put in place for them.

Those problems have meant the Magic have allowed at least 100 points in their last twelve games and Orlando have not really been good enough to make up for that on the Offensive side of the court. The scoring has been better in recent games, but at the same time the Orlando Defensive numbers have been trending in a negative direction.

Milwaukee can take advantage even if their own Defensive performances have not been that good of late. However they should have enough Offensively to challenge Orlando and might just have an edge on the rebounding which can help the Bucks pull away in this game.

The Magic have struggled to a 3-7 record against the spread when hosting a team with a losing record this season and Milwaukee are 6-3 against the spread when favoured by less than four points. It has to be said that Milwaukee have struggled when visiting Orlando, but they won on their most recent game here back in November and I like Milwaukee to lock down for long enough to win and cover on the road.


Indiana Pacers @ LA Lakers Pick: The LA Lakers have hit the wall in recent weeks but this is a team that still has a chance to move closer to the Play Off standings in the Western Conference if they can turn around their form. It is a big task for the young Lakers to take the hits they have and get back on the horse and five straight losses will have dented what had to have been fragile confidence.

It is the struggles on the Defensive side of the ball which hasn't helped the Lakers as they have allowed at least 102 points in each of those five losses, while struggling for consistency Offensively. Now they face an Indiana Pacers team who have won seven of their last eight to move up the Eastern Conference Play Off standings and one who have found their groove on the Offensive side of the court.

I do think the LA Lakers will have some joy in this one shooting the ball as the Pacers have not been totally locked down Defensively, but Indiana will feel they can win any shoot out. The Pacers have looked good bringing down the rebounds and that can be important in these type of shoot outs, but there are a couple of concerns in backing the road team.

One is that Indiana have not been as good on the road despite the win in Sacramento a couple of nights ago, and they have also not been good when visiting teams with losing records like they will on Friday. The Pacers are also 2-3 against the spread when favoured by fewer than four points this season but that is negated by the fact the Lakers have been a poor underdog of less than four points too.

Ultimately I feel the Pacers can do enough on the boards and shooting the ball to move clear of the Lakers who have been inconsistent Offensively. Indiana have gone 4-1-1 against the spread in their last six games at the Lakers and I will look for them to improve that by narrowly overcoming this number on Friday.

MY PICKS: 16/01 Atlanta Hawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
16/01 Philadelphia 76ers + 7 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
16/01 Boston Celtics - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/01 Toronto Raptors - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/01 Houston Rockets - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/01 Denver Nuggets + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
18/01 Washington Wizards - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
18/01 Portland Trail Blazers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/01 New York Knicks + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
19/01 Washington Wizards - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
19/01 Denver Nuggets + 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
20/01 Philadelphia 76ers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
20/01 Milwaukee Bucks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
20/01 Indiana Pacers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

January 16-23 Update: 6-7-1, - 1.42 Units
January 9-15 Final: 6-6, - 0.54 Units
January 2-8 Final: 4-3, + 0.68 Units

January Update: 10-9, + 0.14 Units
December Final: 19-23, - 5.51 Units
November Final: 24-25-1, - 2.92 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Season 2017: 32-34-1, - 4.64 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units