NFL Week 4 Picks 2024 (Thursday 26th September-Monday 30th September)

After two solid weeks, the third week of the NFL season produced more inconsistent results as far as the NFL Picks are concerned.

It has been a relatively low-key start for many teams with some surprises and some real under-performers.

Injuries have already been a major factor and there is a slight feeling of a lack of spark involved in the League, which is something of a surprise.

Week 3 has continued the early season trend of having big underdogs not only covering, but actually winning games outright. In fact, the Cincinnati Bengals defeat to the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football meant the biggest underdog of the week has won for a third straight week in succession.

Suffice to say that Survivor Pools will have been decimated.

Speaking of the Bengals, they may be the biggest disappointment so far in the NFL- they came up narrowly short of a big upset of their own at the home of the defending Champions, but the Bengals have been upset by the New England Patriots in Week 1 and then by the Commanders in Week 3 and neither of those two teams have looked as strong when they have played opponents other than Cincinnati.

Injuries have contributed to the poor start made by the San Francisco 49ers, but they should bounce back once healthier. However, that is less likely to happen for the Jacksonville Jaguars who were blown out embarrassingly by the Buffalo Bills and have to be asking serious questions about Trevor Lawrence at Quarter Back.

Doug Pederson is on the hottest of hot seats and it may not be a big surprise if the Jaguars return from London next month and leave the Head Coach in the United Kingdom.

The Bengals and Jaguars might be the biggest disappointments, but there are teams out there feeling much happier with their starts as they have perhaps surprised those looking in from the outside.

You would have to place the Minnesota Vikings right at the top of that list after their 3-0 start with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, while credit has to be given to the Pittsburgh Steelers and Seattle Seahawks too. We will learn much more about these unbeaten teams as the weeks progress, although there will be some concern amongst the rest that the Kansas City Chiefs are at 3-0 without really playing well at all.

We will get Week 4 going with a big NFC East game between the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants and the two 1-2 teams in the Division are looking to get back onto the same number of wins as the Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles.

Big games are played on Sunday and we have another double-header on Monday Night Football with the second of the two games definitely more appealing for viewing purposes than the Miami-Tennessee game.

The results were a little disappointing in Week 3, but it has been a decent enough start and the selections will be added in this thread.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: The Dallas Cowboys (1-2) have dominated the recent series with the New York Giants (1-2), but this does not look like the same kind of team that has crushed the Giants time after time.

That is not to say that the New York Giants are considerably better than they were, but the win over the Cleveland Browns in Week 3 means they have matched that one victory that the Dallas Cowboys have had in Week 1.

Since then, the Cowboys have not only lost back to back games, but they have been really poor in those defeats and even the fightback against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday put a gloss on a scoreline that was out of hand early. There is limited time for the team to work on changing things around before this Thursday Night Football game in Week 4 and the back to back losses means there is little momentum behind a team that always has to deal with big expectations.

Mike McCarthy is under immesnse pressure as Head Coach and he needs a big reaction from his players after another blowout at home.

The Cowboys have struggled Offensively and one of the big concerns for the team has to be the Offensive Line play and an inability to really get the run going as they have been known to do in recent years. There will be perhaps more room to run the ball against this New York Giants team that have been given up some big yards on the ground, but it is hard to really trust Dallas from what has been produced and so it may be up to Dak Prescott and the passing game to keep the chains moving with any consistency.

Another problem that the Dallas Offensive Line have faced outside of being able to establish the run is that they have not been able to give Prescott the chance to throw the ball deep down the field. Third and long spots are always tough to convert and the Offensive Line have struggled to stop teams from crashing down around Dak Prescott and that is something that could be in play against this Giants pass rush.

If there is time, Dak Prescott should be able to make plays against this Secondary even if the Dallas Receiving options don't look as strong as previous years. However, the question is about that time that Prescott will have and the New York Giants may have a chance to turn the tables on this NFC East rival.

After losing their opening two games, the New York Giants might have been questioning where they are heading, even if they were unfortunate to lose to the Washington Commanders when being without a Kicker. The victory over the Cleveland Browns as a heavy underdog, the latest to do so in the NFL this season, will have just given the team a boost and that could see them earn another upset.

Losing to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 1 does not look nearly as bad as it might have felt a couple of weeks ago and the New York Giants will have noted the blueprint to beat the Cowboys. You can expect the team to hand the ball to Devin Singletary and then look for the Offensive Line to open holes up front to expose what has been a huge vulnerability in the Cowboys Defense and keeping Daniel Jones in third and manageable spots would be a huge boost for a struggling Quarter Back.

To be fair to Daniel Jones, he is managing the game a little better in his last two outings and has not thrown an Interception, even if past struggles against the Cowboys will need to be forgotten. Being in third and manageable spots should mean he is not relying on the Offensive Line to give him a lot of time to look down the field, which is important considering their own pass protection struggles.

He has been getting the ball out of his hands pretty quickly with the team being in better field position and Daniel Jones has to be really appreciating having Malik Nabers as his top Receiver. Drops had been an issue for the Giants in the last couple of years, but Nabers has shown why he was so highly regarded before the Draft and gives the Giants a real playmaker.

It is obviously difficult to ignore the dominance of the Cowboys in the recent rivalry and six wins in a row will give Dallas belief, even if they have been struggling. Many of those wins have been in blowout fashion too, but the New York Giants look much more capable of keeping this one competitive.

Underdogs have been thriving through the first three weeks of the NFL season, especially those given more than 5 points and that will eventually come back to the mean. Over several years those underdogs are not the strong covering teams that they have been in early 2024, but this looks a game where the home underdog may be able to bark loud enough to perhaps not earn an outright upset, but can stay within the point spread set.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers Pick: They gave the Kansas City Chiefs all they could handle and were perhaps unfortunate to lose that game in Week 2, but that has been the highlight of the early part of the season for the Cincinnati Bengals (0-3). Home losses to the New England Patriots and Washington Commanders have put this team under early pressure and while there is plenty of time left in this season, the Bengals can ill-afford another defeat.

A big game against another surprising early struggler is coming up in Week 5 against Divisional rival the Baltimore Ravens, so there is some pressure on the Bengals to start turning things around this week.

Joe Burrow ended last season on the IR, but his return was supposed to help the Bengals build on a year in which they narrowly missed the PlayOff.

However, it has been a tough early part of the season for the Quarter Back and injuries have hurt some of the options around him. The Cincinnati Bengals have struggled on both sides of the ball and the manner of the defeat to the Commanders on Monday Night Football would have caused plenty of worry amongst the fanbase.

They are facing the Carolina Panthers (1-2) on the road in Week 4 and not many would have predicted that the NFC South team would have a stronger record than the Bengals going into this game. The decision to move Andy Dalton into the starting lineup ahead of Bryce Young was vindicated with the team looking much more competent Offensively with the veteran at Quarter Back, although it was not a perfect week for the Panthers with news that Adam Thielen has picked up an injury.

Thirty-six points were scored by Carolina last week and that is a far cry from the combined thirteen points scored across their last four games. They had managed to score all thirteen of those points in their opening two losses to the New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Chargers and it did feel that the the rest of the players deserved a better chance to try and have success than persisting with Bryce Young.

The young Quarter Back's future is now cloudy, but this game could be a 'down to earth' moment for Andy Dalton, even if he is going to be plenty motivated in facing the team that Drafted him into the NFL.

For all of their issues, the Bengals have still played hard enough Defensively to make some plays and they will be looking to show a lot more than they did last week in the home loss to the Washington Commanders. The Bengals Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run and that will be important in this game to make sure Andy Dalton feels he is having to let routes develop before targeting Receivers down the field.

Adam Thielen's absence will hurt all the more if that is the case and this Cincinnati Secondary will feel they can contain the majority of the threats left, even if Diontae Johnson looked much more comfortable catching passes from Dalton. Being behind the chains would potentially see Andy Dalton throwing from pressurised spots, although the Cincinnati pass rush pressure has not been as strong as they would have liked.

Ultimately the direction of this game feels much more dependent on how the Cincinnati Bengals are able to perform Offensively and that is not as clear as perhaps the fans hoped it would be. We have seen moments and some drives where the Bengals look to be getting on track, but Joe Burrow will feel there is still improvement to come from himself, while Tee Higgins should also get better having made his first start in 2024 in Week 3.

Having more success running the ball will certainly help and the Bengals Offensive Line should be able to pave the way for some strong gains on the ground. Keeping the team in third and manageable will make things that much easier for Joe Burrow and the big name Wide Receivers to make plays for the team and will also mean the Quarter Back is not holding onto the ball for too long.

This should be the outcome of the drives when the Bengals have the ball and they can win this game by a wide enough margin to cover the spread.

Backing road favourites is not always ideal, especially not road favourites who are 0-3 and who have lost to two of what people may consider amongst the weakest teams in the NFL. However, the Bengals are in a desperate position and the Panthers might be a touch overrated after winning on the road against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Andy Dalton is going to be massively motivated against his former team, but that alone may not be enough for the Panthers who are perhaps an underdog that would have received a few more points if they had been 0-3 going into Week 4, rather than playing off the back of a win.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Pick: Losing is always going to hurt any professional athlete, but the utter capitulation on Monday Night Football in Week 3 by the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-3) could lead to a lot of big chances. Trevor Lawrence has not played well enough at Quarter Back, while Head Coach Doug Pederson has to be feeling like his seat has significantly warmed up.

It doesn't help that the Jaguars capitulated at the end of last season to miss out on the post-season. To then open up in the manner they have in 2024, despite the expectations, will have raised so many questions about the Coaching staff as well as a Quarter Back that has just signed a huge contract in the off-season.

Over the next month, the Jaguars will be heading over to London to play their annual international games, but they need some momentum before those games. There is already a feeling of some desperation at play following the latest loss and another on Sunday may already have the owner and General Manager wondering whether changes should be made immediately.

This is a big Divisional game for the Jaguars, but also an important one for the Houston Texans (2-1) who were thoroughly outplayed in their Week 3 loss to the Minnesota Vikings. Losing against a non-Conference opponent should not be a major obstacle for the Texans to overcome and a second Divisional win will already be placing Houston in a position to return to the post-season.

CJ Stroud struggled at Quarter Back last week, but this looks to be a much more comfortable match up for the second year starter.

While the Minnesota Vikings have a Defensive unit playing at an extremely high level, the Jacksonville Jaguars have really been struggling and this Houston team has plenty of top Receiving talent to make the big plays for CJ Stroud.

Joe Mixon could be missing again and that may mean Houston are not able to run the ball as efficiently as they would like, although establishing the run might be challenging even if the Running Back is available. The Jaguars Defensive Line has been the strength of the team on that side of the ball, although even being able to contain the threat on the ground has not made it much easier to make stops.

They could not really rattle a dual-threat Quarter Back on Monday Night Football and the Jaguars may not be able to take advantage of some of the protection issues that the Houston Texans have had early in this season. There simply has not been enough pass rush pressure produced by the Jaguars and giving CJ Stroud will expose a Secondary that has not been able to make the big plays needed to turn momentum in their favour.

Jacksonville did largely contain the threat posed by the Miami Dolphins in Week 1, but this may be tougher after the miserable performance in Week 3. There will be some professional pride at play, but that may not be enough against a motivated Divisional rival playing after a blowout loss of their own.

Instead the focus will be on Trevor Lawrence and whether he can play better than what he has shown so far this season- the poor run has actually gone much further for the Quarter Back, and so it is hard to keep faith in Lawrence, even if the Jaguars will have to following the big contract extension handed to him.

A key for the team will be establishing the ground game and then hoping they can extend drives and keep the Houston Offense cooling off on the sidelines. The Jaguars were not able to stick with the plan against the Buffalo Bills after finding themselves in a big, early hole, and becoming one-dimensional is a surefire way to lose a game.

While this one is close, the Jaguars have to lean on the Offensive Line, although they are going up against a Houston team that will be looking to remind everyone that they are much better than what they showed against Sam Darnold and the Vikings. Controlling the Line of Scrimmage is key and the concern for the Jaguars is that they will have to move away from the ground attack sooner than they would like.

If that is the case, Trevor Lawrence has a tough match up in front of him- throwing from in front of the chains will give him a chance, but if Lawrence is in third and long spots, it could be a long day for him. His passing numbers have simply not been there because the Offensive Line have afforded Trevor Lawrence very little time when he has dropped back to throw the ball and time is not going to be easy to find against this Houston pass rush.

Pressure up front has certainly made it easier for the Secondary to make plays and Houston may feel they can win the turnover battle this week, which in turn could lead to a big win.

Playing a Divisional rival will provide motivation enough, but CJ Stroud and the Houston Texans will not have forgotten losing at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars in 2023. They did win a blowout on the road earlier in the season as a big underdog, but this time it is the Houston Texans who look primed for a bounce back and a strong win as the home favourite.

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The NFC North looks a very strong Division this season, even if the Chicago Bears have perhaps not performed as some would have expected from a dark horse. It is still early in the season as far as the Bears are concerned, especially at 1-2, but the rest of the Division all having winning records through three games and that will make these Divisional games feel that much more important.

If you had predicted one of the NFC North teams to be at 3-0, it would not have been the Minnesota Vikings (3-0) who have overachieved compared to pre-season expectations. After trading away Kirk Cousins, some felt the Vikings were going to head through a transitional season with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, but it has been far from the case within.

Wins over the New York Giants, San Francisco 49ers and Houston Texans have been impressive, especially the manner in which the Vikings have won those games. Now they have to travel to the Green Bay Packers (2-1), a team who have bounced back from losing in Week 1 and without Jordan Love at Quarter Back.

There had been a fear that Love was going to miss significant time, but he was hoping to play in Week 3 and is again putting in time in practice to come back and lead the Green Bay Packers. The Coaching staff are unlikely to want to take too many risks with the face of the franchise though and suffice to say that Malik Willis has given the team no reason to need to rush back Jordan Love.

A win over the Indianapolis Colts before another against a team from the AFC South, this time in a revenge setting against the Tennessee Titans, has pushed Green Bay above 0.500 and Willis is looking like a competent player at this level. That was far from the case in Tennessee, but that also is something that the Packers Coaching team deserve a lot of credit for.

In giving him praise, it is hard to ignore the fact that Malik Willis will be facing his toughest test early in this Green Bay career.

He has contributed to what has been a strong Green Bay rushing attack, but that part of their Offensive game plan is going to be significantly tested by this Minnesota Vikings team. So far this season, the Vikings Defensive Line have only allowed 3.5 yards per carry and they have been able to get the better of a couple of decent Offenses, even if the 49ers were banged up in Week 2.

Making Malik Willis earn the yards through the air is going to be the key for the Minnesota Vikings with the Packers passing game a little rusty without Jordan Love. Again, credit has to be given to Willis for avoiding big mistakes and just doing what he needs to in order to keep the chains moving, but that task is going to be much more difficult if the Packers are playing from third and long spots.

There is something similar happening when the Minnesota Vikings have the ball- they are going to want to run the ball and make sure Sam Darnold is not in a position where he feels he needs to really push the boat out. So far that has not only been a good game plan, but a really strong one with the Vikings playing really well on this side of the ball.

It is a revenge game for Aaron Jones who left Green Bay to join Minnesota ahead of the 2024 season and he has promised to make the Lambeau Leap if he scores on Sunday.

You have to expect Jones and the Vikings to be able to have more consistency establishing the run when facing a Green Bay Defensive Line that has given up some big gains on the ground. This will be exactly what Sam Darnold will need, especially as the Quarter Back is playing through the pain at this moment.

Sacks could be a problem for Darnold whenever he is in obvious passing Downs, but credit has to be given to him for making sure he is avoiding big mistakes and doing what is needed to ensure Minnesota score enough points to win games. This Green Bay Secondary have given up a fair few yards in the air, but they have also created turnovers and that has to be something that Darnold needs to be aware of and look to avoid at all costs.

This has the makings of a really fun game and another chance to learn something about this Minnesota Vikings team.

No one outside of their own building would have predicted this start, although they do have to avoid being distracted by a Week 5 game in London. That is against former Packers Quarter Back Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets so plenty of fans will be anticipating the game, but this is the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau and that should be motivation enough.

The Vikings did win here as a narrow favourite last season, but this time they are capable of making use of the points being given to them to earn a road cover.

MY PICKS: New York Giants + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Houston Texans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Minnesota Vikings + 3 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Arizona Cardinals - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Buffalo Bills - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Tennessee Titans - 1 Point @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NFL Week 4 Picks 2019 (September 26-30)

After a difficult opening two weeks of the 2019 season for the NFL Picks, Week 3 was a much more productive one to get the numbers back into a positive position.

It certainly gives me something to build upon as we move into Week 4 and the beginning of the Bye Weeks- I am not sure any team really wants to take a Bye at this stage of the season knowing they will have to come out and play twelve straight weeks when the injuries can pile up, but you have to deal with the schedule given to you and both the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers will have to accept the early rest.

Before I get into the Week 4 Picks, I have a few thoughts about the NFL after Week 3 which can be read below. I will then update my top five and bottom five list before moving into the Week 4 selections as I look to produce back to back strong weeks for the NFL Picks.


Freddie Kitchens might be out of his depth- you know the expectations in Cleveland have grown massively since the end of the 2018 season, but new Head Coach Freddie Kitchens has not impressed early on in 2019.

The Browns dropped to 1-2 with a home defeat to the Los Angeles Rams meaning their sole win is against the 0-3 New York Jets who had a third string Quarter Back playing by the end.

It is one thing to be disappointed in losing to a team who played in the Super Bowl last season, but the play-calling from Kitchens was horrific to say the least and this first time Head Coach is not going to have a long leash with the expectations where they are. He has quickly been promoted to this level having had just a few games as an Offensive Co-Ordinator under Gregg Williams here last season, but that isn't going to be good enough for a team who have to look at the AFC North as being significantly weakened by the injury to Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh.

In Week 4 the Browns play the Baltimore Ravens on the road and a defeat would mean being two games back in the Division and two games under 0.500 with just a quarter of the season in the books. A visit to the unbeaten San Francisco 49ers out of a Bye follows that game before hosting Seattle going into their own Bye Week and I would not be surprised if Kitchens is perhaps shown the door during that time if the Cleveland Browns have not shown significant improvement over the next three weeks.


Injuries to key players piling up- injuries are a part of life in the NFL, but we have seen some big names knocked out in the last couple of weeks.

For those that play Fantasy Football these injuries can be hard to deal with as you scramble for replacements, but for the teams it can be the difference between a potential PlayOff spot and playing golf in January.

I think the Pittsburgh Steelers are in a big hole already, while the New York Giants will have to make do without Saquon Barkley for a few weeks and were unlikely to really compete for a PlayOff spot. The New Orleans Saints might be best placed to remain competitive until Drew Brees is back, but this underlines why it is so hard to make pre-season predictions in the NFL when injuries can decimate teams very quickly in a hard hitting sport.


Miami Dolphins might be the worst team in the NFL, but they are no sure things for the Number 1 Draft Pick- in 2017 there were five teams at 0-3 after Week 3 of the NFL season had been played and in 2018 that number became three teams.

In 2019 six teams are 0-3 going into Week 4 and the Arizona Cardinals are also winless which means even a terrible Miami team might not be guaranteed the best Pick in the next NFL Draft. The Dolphins are bad, but the New York Jets and the Washington Redskins don't exactly look like powerhouses and both are also at 0-3.

To make things more complicated for the Dolphins is that they can ruin their own chances of the Number 1 overall Pick as they face those two teams three times in the coming weeks and months. Two of those three games are played in South Florida so even a historically bad team like this Dolphins one looks like might be able to make enough plays to win a couple of games and perhaps even finish with a pick outside the top two in the Draft.

Miami insist they are not tanking, but there are some bad teams in the NFL this season so I would not be totally sure the Dolphins are going to finish with the kind of record their roster suggests they should. As a New York Knicks fan, I am taking nothing for granted for my Miami Dolphins and the Draft position they end up in, although they are also given a bonus by holding the Pittsburgh Steelers First Round Picks... That is the 0-3 Pittsburgh Steelers.


The Philadelphia Eagles have a big few weeks before their Bye Week- I thought the Eagles might be the team to beat in the NFC this season, but they have made a poor start to 2019 as they sit at 1-2 and with injuries hurting them.

The Secondary have struggled and the Eagles are also competing with a very good looking Dallas Cowboys team in the NFC East having falling a couple of games behind their rivals.

The bigger issue through the injuries might be the schedule and the Eagles could conceivably be out of PlayOff contention by the time they get into their Bye Week in Week 10 of the season. That might sound like a big statement, but they are 1-2 and the games before the Bye read @ Green Bay, New York Jets, @ Minnesota, @ Dallas, @ Buffalo and Chicago.

All but one of those teams has a winning record, three of them are at 3-0 going into Week 4 of the season and you would begin to wonder about the Eagles chances of even making a Wild Card spot in the post-season if things go wrong. Is it that hard to see a situation where the Eagles are going into their Bye with a 2-7 record? Or 3-6?

If that is the case, the Eagles might be cooked before Thanksgiving Day and this might be seen as a lost season with big questions needing answering in the off-season. They have a big game on Thursday Night Football to try and build some positive momentum behind them.


The NFC North and NFC West are the best Divisions in the NFL- all but one of the teams in these two Divisions combined has a losing record going into Week 4 of the 2019 season. Remarkably three of the eight teams are at 3-0, while the Detroit Lions should be at 3-0 having blown a big lead and settled for a tie at the Arizona Cardinals in Week 1.

The NFC North has all four teams with a winning record at this moment, but my fear for both of these Divisions is that they could cannibalise teams within them which will prevent at least four of the six NFC PlayOff teams to come from them.

Two Division Winners and two Wild Card teams would not be a big surprise though when you see how the other two NFC Divisions are shaping up early in the season and I have to say I very much like what Green Bay, Minnesota, Chicago, LA Rams and San Francisco have put together so far.

Others will believe they have begun well enough to really compete for Wild Card spots at the very worst and I am looking forward to all of the Divisional games in these two Divisions in the weeks and months ahead.

My Top Five

1) New England Patriots- we will learn a lot about this team in Week 4 as they face an unbeaten Divisional rival on the road, but even the release of Antonio Brown after one game played does not prevent me thinking this is the team to beat in the NFL again.

2) Kansas City Chiefs- Patrick Mahomes gives the Chiefs every chance to win the Super Bowl, but I would like to see them grasp the opportunity in front of them. With that in mind, I would hope the Chiefs make the kind of trades they can to improve the Defensive unit which will be important in January.

3) Dallas Cowboys- I love the way this team has played Offensively and expect from the Defense in the weeks and months ahead. Maybe the best team in the NFC.

4) Green Bay Packers- with the improvements made on the Defensive side of the ball, I think the Packers run Dallas close for the best team in the NFC spot.

5) Los Angeles Rams- it is hard to ignore them here when you think of the way they have bounced back from the Super Bowl loss to the Patriots. An unbeaten start and likely 4-0 at the end of Week 4, but with improvements to come.

My Bottom Five

32) Miami Dolphins- they are the worst roster in the League, but home games with the New York Jets and Washington Redskins may be what determines their final Draft Position.

31) New York Jets- I think the return of Sam Darnold can't come soon enough for Head Coach Adam Gase as the 0-3 Jets hit the Bye Week.

30) Washington Redskins- Jay Gruden is under the microscope in the nation's capital and sticking with Case Keenum may soon cost him his job.

29) Arizona Cardinals- did show some life in the opening two weeks of the season, but being blown out by the Carolina Panthers missing Cam Newton is an ugly look.

28) Cincinnati Bengals- another team who have shown some life, but the blow out at home to San Francisco in Week 2 and being 0-3 means they take this spot ahead of the Denver Broncos.

Week 4 Picks

After a disappointing start to the season, a 5-2 record in Week 3 was most welcome and has begun to turn things around for the NFL Picks. Finishing 3-2 with the selections with the higher units helped, but it was the two winners in Indianapolis and Cincinnati which will have got the season back on track.

Hopefully it is the start of a positive run which can back up the strong results from 2018.

It may have been better if Joe Flacco had not turned the ball over either side of half time against the Green Bay Packers which saw the Denver Broncos fall into a 24-10 deficit having been at 10-10 at that point, but I am happy with a positive return and looking for another successful week.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Back in early September I suggested the Green Bay Packers would be much improved from the team that has had back to back losing seasons and would be a team that ended up in the PlayOffs. I feel pretty good about that prediction right now with the Green Bay Packers at 3-0 with two Divisional wins under their belt, but then again I also called the Philadelphia Eagles as my favourite to win the NFC and represent that Conference in the Super Bowl.

That prediction looks very poor as the Eagles sit at 1-2 and have lost two games as the favourite in the last couple of weeks. They are in a difficult portion of their schedule and injuries are hurting the Eagles as they look for an upset on Thursday Night Football to get back on track.

Carson Wentz is doing his best to keep the Eagles afloat, but there are injuries in a number of areas with the most pressing being the Wide Receiver position. The Quarter Back could be boosted by the return of Alshon Jeffrey who is expected back after missing Week 3, but Wentz is also throwing into a much improved Green Bay Secondary and a limited Jeffrey might struggle to break free of the attention the likes of Jaire Alexander will be giving him.

It will be a challenge for Wentz to find the time to attack down the field as we have seen Green Bay produce plenty of pressure from their new look pass rush. While the Philadelphia Offensive Line is a good looking unit, they have not always had it easy to protect Wentz with much of the problems coming down from the fact that the Eagles are being put in third and long situations.

The Eagles may have some success running the ball in this one if they can find some consistency from the committee they are using at Running Back. Despite all the improvements on the Defensive side of the ball, teams have found a way to have some success running the ball against Green Bay so it could be a chance for Philadelphia to at least keep Carson Wentz in third and manageable spots.

However it is going to have success consistently with the way that the Packers have been playing and the way these teams match up. I expect Philadelphia to have some success moving the chains, but ultimately the Packers have shown they can do enough to limit teams Offensively and give Aaron Rodgers and the Offense the field positions to win games.

It has been needed too.

Aaron Rodgers has really had a hard time getting to grips with the new Offensive schemes that Matt LaFleur wants Green Bay to run and the Offense has spluttered. So far the most passing yards Rodgers has produced in a single game is actually below 250 yards, while his total passing yards after three games is the second lowest of his career and those are statements that you simply would not expect from Green Bay.

The Offense has looked to run the ball more, but Green Bay have not exactly thrived doing that and that has meant Rodgers is throwing from third and long spots far too many times. The Packers can't expect to run the ball effectively against the Philadelphia Eagles, but Aaron Rodgers has made it clear the passing game needs to get back on track and he is facing a Secondary that has struggled to contain Case Keenum, Matt Ryan and Matt Stafford.

Injuries are hurting the Eagles Secondary who have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game and I think Rodgers and his Wide Receivers can get back on track in this one. With the Quarter Back talking about wanting to improve the passing numbers, I do think Green Bay will come out throwing with success, especially as we have yet to see the Eagles pass rush show up.

I think that is going to be key in helping Green Bay coming through with a win and a cover on Thursday Night Football. The short week doesn't help an injury hit Philadelphia team prepare for this game and I think the Defensive unit make enough plays to slow the Eagles Offensively, while I look for Aaron Rodgers to have his biggest game of the season so far.

Aaron Rodgers has a very strong record as the home favourite and the Packers are 9-0 against the spread as the home favourite of less than 13 points when coming off a non-Conference game. As good as this Philadelphia team could potentially be, Carson Wentz is only 4-7 against the spread as the road underdog, while the Eagles are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games off a straight up loss, and I am going to back the Packers to do enough on both sides of the ball to earn the cover on Thursday Night Football.


Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Suffice to say that I am not very high on Freddie Kitchens as a Head Coach, but that doesn't mean the Cleveland Browns should be an underdog of this size going on the road to the Baltimore Ravens. A 1-2 start has left the Browns scratching around to figure out how to get better play out of their talented team on both sides of the ball, and they can't really afford to fall two games behind the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North with just four games in the books.

In previous years I would have worried about the spot for the Ravens who face the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 5, but I think they are going to be fully focused for this game against what is most likely their biggest rival in the Division.

Even with that in mind, I do think we are getting a lot of points with the underdog with both teams looking to bounce back from a loss in Week 3. The Baltimore Ravens are still trying to show they can find the Offensive balance with Lamar Jackson at Quarter Back and so far the young signal caller has made strong plays on the ground and through the air.

Mark Ingram has helped with the ground game and the Ravens have piled up some big numbers through their first three games of the 2019 season. It is hard to think the Cleveland Browns will clamp down completely on the run, but the Defensive Line is the strength of the Defense and they have found a way to restrict teams to 4 yards per carry which will mean forcing Jackson to beat them with his arm not his legs.

Jackson himself has admitted he prefers throwing the ball to running and he can have another big game against a banged up Secondary which is in front of him. There could be a couple of key players returning for Cleveland in time for this Week 4 game, but I still think Jackson can have some success throwing the ball as he looks to prove once and for all that he is a player that can be a quality operator at the Quarter Back position for the years ahead.

The Cleveland Browns do have a pass rush that will likely get in Lamar Jackson's face in a bid to stall drives or force Field Goals instead of Touchdowns and that is going to be important for them to at least allow their own Offense to have more success than they did in Week 3.

A home defeat to the Los Angeles Rams is a disappointment, but some of the play-calling at the end of the game was ridiculous to say the least. Any kid who has played Madden would have made better decisions than the Browns Coaching staff, but I expect the team to bounce back in this Divisional game.

Nick Chubb is not likely going to have a great impact on proceedings against a Baltimore Defensive Line that has been stout up front and have been able to shut down the run. However I still expect Chubb to feature in the passing game as a safety valve for Baker Mayfield who is also looking to ram some of the criticism he has received back down the throats of his critics.

The young Quarter Back has had a poor start to the 2019 season, but part of the reason has been a limited protection offered to him by the Offensive Line. Baker Mayfield will be under pressure in this one if he is playing from third and long spots, but the Baltimore Secondary looks like it is struggling and he still has some big time weapons that can make plays for him.

David Njoku is injured which is a blow, but both Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr will win their battles on the outside and it is up to Mayfield to play better and find those targets. Turnovers have hurt Baker Mayfield, but I do think he can make enough plays through the air to make this competitive and potentially even earn the road upset.

The road team has improved to 13-5-1 against the spread in the last nineteen between these Divisional rivals. Cleveland have gone 7-2 against the spread in their last nine off a straight up loss and the Baltimore Ravens have failed to cover in their last four against the AFC North.

In a small sample Baker Mayfield has gone 2-1 against the spread in Divisional games and I think the Quarter Back will use the motivation of the criticism he has received over the last week to produce a big performance and a cover with the points given to the underdog.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins Pick: It is amazing to look back at Week 1 of the season and think the Baltimore Ravens for less than a Touchdown favourite to win in Miami against the hapless Dolphins. Of course no one could have known how bad the Dolphins were going to be and when the spreads were first released the team had not traded away the last of their top tradable assets.

The blow out at the hands of the Ravens meant the Dolphins were huge underdogs in Week 2 and Week 3 and out of principle those were numbers I did not want to touch. However Miami have not come close to covering the spread and now host the desperate Los Angeles Chargers who were dropped to 1-2 last week.

With the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC West Division, the Chargers can't afford to lose too much ground to one of the favourites to win the Super Bowl. They also won't want to add a disappointing Conference loss to their record as it could come down to tie-breakers when the Wild Card spots are handed out in January.

There are a couple of concerns here- the Los Angeles Chargers heading from the West Coast to the East Coast for an early Eastern Time kick off is never a good spot for those teams. They also have a big Divisional game at home next week which might be taking away some of the focus while I also can't help the feeling that the Miami Dolphins have to eventually start covering with these big starts being given to them.

The good news is that the public seems to be behind the Miami Dolphins which does make me a little more comfortable in backing the Los Angeles Chargers to win the game and cover a big number.

Melvin Gordon is back from his hold out from the Chargers, but the Running Back will not be available this weekend. That is not expected to be an issue for the Chargers in Week 4 when you think of the impact the likes of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson have had on the season and the two players have helped Los Angeles produce over 100 yards per game on the ground at 5.2 yards per carry.

Unsurprisingly the Miami Dolphins have struggled to stop the run when you think of the way they have gutted their team in both trenches. The Defensive Line is giving up over 200 yards per game at 5.4 yards per carry so I expect Ekeler and Jackson to have another big day together and remind Melvin Gordon that he will have to work hard to get his touches on his return from his hold out.

The Los Angeles Chargers Offensive Line has not been playing as well in pass protection as they have in run blocking, but the team should open up play-action for Philip Rivers who has had some eye-catching numbers. He is throwing into a Secondary that has only one serviceable starter and Rivers should be able to have a comfortable day as long as he avoids some of the mistakes which have blighted the Chargers in the first three weeks of the season.

I don't really have a lot to say about the Miami Dolphins on either side of the ball as they continue to evaluate Josh Rosen at Quarter Back. He didn't play badly in the loss to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3, but Rosen has yet to throw a Touchdown pass and has 2 Interceptions and I do feel sorry for any Quarter Back that is throwing to a set of Receivers like the one Rosen has at his disposal.

The Offensive Line has lost key Tackles since 2018 and they have struggled to run the ball with little hope of improving against the Chargers Defensive Line. It has not been a lot better from the Dolphins in pass protection and it might be the kind of game the Chargers have needed to get their own pass rush back on track and I can see Los Angeles making enough plays on both sides of the ball to eventually pull clear against arguably the worst NFL roster that has ever been put together.

Los Angeles have been struggling in recent games against Miami, but the Dolphins are much changed since they last met in 2017. The Chargers are also 7-2 against the spread in their last nine road games and they are 5-2-1 against the spread as the road favourite under Anthony Lynn.

Philip Rivers is not easy to trust when it comes to big spreads, but the Chargers should be focused off back to back losses and I expect them to run through the Dolphins and eventually pull clear. A big number this may be, but being able to oppose the public with the better team is good enough for me.


New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills Pick: The Antonio Brown era is over in New England before it ever really begun, but that doesn't mean the Patriots are anything other than the favourite to win the Super Bowl as they were before they signed the troubled Receiver. Moving to 3-0 behind another comfortable win in Week 3 means New England are once again in a position to show the rest of the AFC East that the dynasty is here to stay for the immediate future at least.

They have already beaten the Miami Dolphins on the road in Week 2 and beat the New York Jets in Week 3, but now the New England Patriots have to face the other 3-0 team in the Division.

The Buffalo Bills have beaten the Jets from within the Division and followed it up with wins over the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals, but everyone associated with the team will know they will only be considered a real contender if they can beat the New England Patriots. The Bills have lost five in a row against the Patriots and they are considered big underdogs in this one despite coming in with a Defensive unit that has given Tom Brady things to think about in recent games.

Unfortunately for the Bills they have not produced enough Offense to back up the Defensive plays and that looks like it could be an issue for them again in 2019. Josh Allen is improving in his second year with the Bills, but the New England Patriots Defense is playing some of the best Football in the NFL and Bill Belichick has masterminded his team to remove the biggest threat they face and force teams to be them in unfamiliar ways.

In reality I am not sure I could really point out the biggest strength on the Buffalo Bills Offense and it may just be a case of preventing Josh Allen from trying to win the game on his legs rather than with his arm. The Quarter Back might not have a lot of support the Offensive Line establishing the run as New England have clamped down on opponents up front and Frank Gore is a veteran that has seen his best days behind him.

Keeping Allen and the Bills in third and long spots is going to allow the Patriots to unleash their pass rush which has been very effective early in the season, while the Secondary is vastly under-rated. It makes it difficult to see Buffalo sustaining drives having had some issues against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 who don't have a Defensive unit nearly as competitive as the one the Patriots will be bringing to New Era Field.

I am also not expecting a blow out for the New England Patriots, but I have to be encouraged about their chances of covering if they can hold Buffalo to 6 or fewer points as they have in their last two visits here. The Patriots have yet to give up an Offensive Touchdown and that makes them very difficult to oppose in terms of the cover in Week 4.

There are some injury concerns on both sides of the ball which could have an affect on the New England Patriots and one of those is James Develin. The Full Back might be playing in a position that has not been that important for other teams in the NFL, but Develin has been very important for New England and it is hard to see the Patriots having a lot of success moving the chains with Sony Michel running the ball.

New England have not been churning out big yards on the ground, but Tom Brady will be looking to make sure the Bills respect the balance of the Offense. Tom Brady is going to have Julian Edelman available and I do think Brady will be able to make enough plays through the air to put the Patriots in a position to win the game.

The Bills Secondary have played well, but Andy Dalton showed there are one or two holes that can be exploited and I would expect Tom Brady to do the same. He has to be aware of the pass rush pressure the Bills will get whenever New England are in third and long situations, but I do think having Edelman and Josh Gordon should mean New England can score just enough points coupled with their strong Defensive play to win and cover on the road.

The Patriots are 14-3 against the spread in the last seventeen in Buffalo and they have remained very strong against Divisional opponents as well as when they are playing on the road. Buffalo failed to cover last weekend and are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven at home, while they are also 4-7 against the spread in their last eleven as the home underdog.

It is a big number for the road team to cover against an unbeaten opponent, but I like the New England Patriots as the one team who I will back along with the public.


Washington Redskins @ New York Giants Pick: The Eli Manning era is most definitely over at the New York Giants after Daniel Jones helped his team recover from 18 points down and win on the road at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. The Giants are now 1-2 for the season and this is going to be a learning year for Jones, but the minute you are given a nickname like 'Danny Dimes' then you know the fans are ready to see you perform on the big stage.

After winning on the road, Jones will lead the Giants into this Divisional game against the Washington Redskins who slipped to 0-3 on Monday Night Football. Some in the nation's capital would have been hoping that they would get to the see the Quarter Back they selected in the First Round of the 2019 Draft, but Dwayne Haskins was not asked to take over last week and Case Keenum looks to have recovered from a knock to take the starting snaps on Sunday.

It might better for Haskins to take the year to absorb as much as he can about the NFL, but Head Coach Jay Gruden is not going to have a lot of time to see the development of this Quarter Back if they are to keep losing games. He will need more out of Keenum, but the Redskins look banged up and they have not been as competitive in the last two weeks as they were in the narrow defeat to rivals Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1.

Adrian Peterson and Chris Thompson may try and help Case Keenum by establishing the run in this game, but the Washington Offensive Line has to be perform better than they have so far. This season the Redskins are only producing 2.4 yards per carry and they are not expected to get a lot of change out of the New York Defensive Line which is going to heap the pressure on Keenum at Quarter Back.

To be fair to Keenum there have been some solid moments from him in every game played so far this season and he looks to be a comfortable fit for the system that Gruden wants to run. Ultimately he is an inconsistent Quarter Back and that is why his tenure has never lasted too long in any starting role he has picked up, but I do think Keenum can have a decent game in this one.

His Offensive Line might not be the best, but the Giants have not produced a heavy pass rush and they have a very weak looking Secondary that can be exposed by the Quarter Back. The continued absence of Jordan Reed does hurt the Redskins, but Terry McLaurin has shown flashes in his rookie season and he is expected to be good go here.

Case Keenum should be able to keep the ball moving and help Washington put up some decent points in this one and I think that will give them a chance. As much as I was impressed by the way Daniel Jones played last week, the injury to Saquon Barkley removes another big weapon for the Giants and there is the increased sense of expectation that can affect the mentality of rookie signal callers as we have seen throughout the history of the NFL.

Stopping the run would have been a lot more difficult for the Redskins if Barkley was playing, but Wayne Gallman is a considerable downgrade. However the Quarter Back showed he is much more mobile than Eli Manning so I do think the Giants will have success moving the ball on the ground and that will keep the Offensive unit in manageable downs and distances.

It is a big help for Daniel Jones who is not blessed with a deep Receiving corps, but has talented players like Evan Engram and Sterling Shepherd to make plays. He will have to be aware that the Washington Redskins have a better pass rush than they have shown this season, but running the ball should just reduce the enthusiasm to get the Quarter Back and this New York Offensive Line can protect Jones for long enough to make his plays through the air.

There are some major breakdowns in the Washington Secondary and I would expect New York to have success moving the chains too in what could be a very competitive game. Both Offensive units look like they can get the better of the Defenses they are facing and I do think having the hook with the Washington Redskins on the handicap is the play.

They have to be looking for revenge for the blow out defeat at home the last time these Divisional rivals met in 2018 and the Redskins have covered in their last seven games when coming in off a double digit home defeat. Washington have a decent trend on the road when it comes to the against the spread numbers and a rookie Quarter Back making his first home start in the NFL is going to produce pressure for Daniel Jones to deal with.

It is a new era for the Giants, but they are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last nine games here and I am going to back the Washington Redskins with the points and am willing to pay for the number to go through a key number too.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 7 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New England Patriots - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 3.5 Points @ 1.83 Coral (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 12-10, + 0.74 Units (41 Units Staked, + 1.80% Yield)