Olympic Tennis Day 4 Picks 2021 (July 27th)

The schedule for the Olympic Games Tennis tournament means the entirety of the Women's Second Round and Third Rounds are going to be played in a single day with the Bronze and Gold Medal matches scheduled for Saturday.

The Men's Final is set for Sunday so the schedule for their tournament has seen the First Round and Second Round split over two days early in the week. All of the Third Round matches will be played on Wednesday and the big names are largely still in action in this event.

I've updated the Olympic Games stats below after another inconsistent day on Monday and I am looking for more consistency with the selections made on Tuesday as Day 4 gets going. There is rain forecasted in Tokyo so those of us in Europe may actually get to see some live Tennis outside of the early starts that have had to be made over the last few days.

The roof on the main court should see those matches go as scheduled, but the other matches may have a delayed start with the rain expected and it could mean late night tennis to keep the tournament on track for a finish later this weekend.

Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Marcos Giron: The heat in Tokyo has made it more important for players to not overexert themselves in the early part of the Olympic tournament if they are going to have the energy to Medal at the end of this week. An upset win for Kei Nishikori over Andrey Rublev came in straight sets and will give the home player something to build upon, while Marcos Giron needed three sets and a full hour more on the court to win his own First Round match.

Both will feel they deserve their spot in the Second Round though and the upset produced by Kei Nishikori means the draw has opened up somewhat. The big threat in this section continues to be Novak Djokovic though and his presence will have to be overcome for either of Kei Nishikori or Marcos Giron to get into a position to win a Medal, but that match is to come later in the week and it won't mean anything unless they can get through this tough match.

The earlier hard court numbers were not that impressive for either player, but both looked in much stronger from in the First Round at the Olympic Games. The Kei Nishikori win is clearly the more impressive of the two considering the opponent he was faced with, but much is going to depend on the serve if the Japanese player is going to work his way into a position to progress to the Third Round.

Over the course of the season, Kei Nishikori has been a little inconsistent with his serve and it has led to him only holding 74% of service games played. I am not entirely convinced that Marcos Giron is the kind of return player to exploit that, but the American will look to serve big and hope that can generate enough pressure to break down Nishikori coming in off a big win.

The serve was important for Marcos Giron in his First Round win and he has held 81% of service games played on the hard courts, although recent form has been more mixed. A return to the hard courts should benefit Giron going forward into the US hard court series of tournaments, although his return of serve is one that needs to be much improved if Marcos Giron is going to have any deep runs in this event and those in the lead up to the US Open.

After missing 2020, Kei Nishikori did have a slow start to 2021, but in recent weeks and months there has been an improvement in his level of performance. There are going to be a few key points that ends up determining the direction of this match, but I do think Kei Nishikori can build on the big win he earned in the First Round as he looks to put a show on in his home Olympic Games.

This is not going to be an easy spread to cover if Marcos Giron is anywhere near his best serving level, but I think Kei Nishikori can get into the return games and he should show he is the superior player in the longer rallies. I expect the Japanese player to earn a couple more breaks of serve over the course of the match and it should give him every chance of covering this mark.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: There is a relatively early opportunity for Stefanos Tsitsipas to earn a measure of revenge against Frances Tiafoe after losing to the American in the First Round at Wimbledon earlier this month. That defeat would have been a big disappointment to the Greek player, but playing on the grass courts are still a work in progress for Stefanos Tsitsipas and he is a much more comfortable player on the clay and hard court portion of the Tour.

He may not have won a title on the hard courts in 2021, but Stefanos Tsitsipas did reach the Semi Final at the Australian Open and has moved through to the Quarter Final stage of every tournament he has played on this surface.

One of the main reasons for the improved results on the hard courts has been the success Stefanos Tsitsipas has had on the return of serve. We all know he possesses a big serve and can back that up very effectively, but Tsitsipas has improved his percentage of breaks of serve from around the 17-18% mark up to 25% in his twenty-two hard court matches played in 2021.

A tough First Round win over a veteran Philipp Kohlschreiber will have given Stefanos Tsitsipas a boost in confidence and he has beaten Frances Tiafoe in the three previous hard court matches they have competed in. The head to head in those matches shows that the Greek player has been the dominant return player and Frances Tiafoe is someone who is comfortable on the hard courts, but far from consistent enough to put together a string of strong results.

Frances Tiafoe can be dangerous with his natural athleticism making him a player that can put together a strong set even when playing some of the better players on the Tour. However, his overall numbers on the hard courts have been average at best over the last few seasons and he has only reached one Quarter Final on the surface in 2021.

Even before this season, the American has been an inconsistent performer on the hard courts and his head to head with Stefanos Tsitsipas is a concern despite the win at Wimbledon. It might give Frances Tiafoe more belief, but Tsitsipas is a different performer on the hard courts and I think he is going to have a little too much for the American in this Second Round match.

In their previous hard court matches, Frances Tiafoe has held around 72% of his service games compared with Stefanos Tsitsipas' 94% mark and it might be the difference maker on the day. This is a big mark to cover without a doubt, but Stefanos Tsitsipas might have enough to get over the mark and perhaps even match the margin of win when the Greek player beat Tiafoe here in Tokyo in 2017.

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Marketa Vondrousova: Two dominant wins to move through to the Third Round has underlined Naomi Osaka's favouritism to win the Gold Medal in her home Olympic Games on a surface in which she is the best WTA player in the world. You could be forgiven for forgetting that Naomi Osaka has not played since the First Round of the French Open, but a return to the hard courts and the chance to refresh mentally and physically has clearly come at a good time for the Japanese superstar.

She has barely been pushed so far in Tokyo, but I am sure Naomi Osaka will be the first to expect a much stronger challenge in the Third Round. Even then it is difficult to see anyone really troubling Naomi Osaka outside of a couple of names left in the draw, but the WTA Tour has long been fairly open with players capable of producing a big week at any time.

Naomi Osaka is the top hard court player in the world though and she has yet to drop her serve in the Tokyo Olympic tournament, while an aggressive return has seen her win 46% of the return points played in both matches. That has produced enough break points for Naomi Osaka to really dominate on the scoreboard and I do think there is going to be a lot of pressure on the lefty serve of Marketa Vondrousova despite the two wins the Czech player has put on the board.

The Second Round win was much easier than the three set win over Kiki Bertens in the First Round, but Marketa Vondrousova has had an inconsistent time on the hard courts over the last two seasons. The second serve is one that can be attacked by opponents and Marketa Vondrousova can sometimes be overwhelmed by the power coming against her which has been the case in some heavy losses on this surface to the likes of Aryna Sabalenka and Garbine Muguruza earlier this season.

Now she will have to deal with the immense power that Naomi Osaka can bring to the court and it will be a real challenge for Marketa Vondrousova to get into the return games she is playing. It only adds to the pressure when Osaka is ready to get on the front foot whenever she sees a second serve and ultimately I think this is a surface on which the Number 2 Seed can really push ahead with her aggressive brand of tennis.

Both wins produced so far this week have been by comfortable margins and I think Naomi Osaka is going to produce another one in the Third Round as she cover on her way through to the Quarter Finals.

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 games v Camila Giorgi: Early losses in the build up to Wimbledon meant Karolina Pliskova could fly under the radar at the third Grand Slam of the 2021 season. She took full advantage of being able to play without a lot of pressure by reaching the Final at Wimbledon and the only regret will be the very slow start made in the three set defeat to Ashleigh Barty.

The recent form had made it difficult for anyone outside of Karolina Pliskova's team to believe she was ready for such a run at Wimbledon, but she has backed it up by winning two matches at the Tokyo Olympics. The Czech player is now the favourite to reach the Quarter Final as she edges closer to the Medal positions in Tokyo, while it will also be a good chance for Pliskova to give herself another shot of confidence before the US Open begins.

Karolina Pliskova did not have the best early form on the hard courts in 2021, but she will at least avoid having to face Jessica Pegula in this tournament. The latter has gotten the better of Karolina Pliskova too many times already in 2021, while the Czech player has just been a little short of where she would expect to be in her return numbers.

That part of her game will be tested by Camila Giorgi who reached the Semi Final in Eastbourne in the build up to Wimbledon, but who has been in erratic form over the last twelve months. There is plenty of talent in the Giorgi racquet, but I am not always convinced that she is completely focused on her tennis and that has led to some inconsistent results, while her form on the hard courts in early 2021 has been less than impressive.

Camila Giorgi has a decent first serve which can make her dangerous, but the second serve is vulnerable and an over-aggressive return game can lead to a lot of unforced errors and easing the pressure on her opponent. It is certainly going to be a worry for her against the big Karolina Pliskova serve, while the head to head with this opponent is also going to be a mental obstacle for the Italian player to overcome.

She did beat Karolina Pliskova on the grass courts last month, but it is Karolina Pliskova who has won all four of their previous hard court matches. In those matches, Pliskova has dominated the return aspect of the matches against Camila Giorgi and she has produced plenty more break points than her Italian opponent and eventually broken down the game.

I do note that Karolina Pliskova has gotten a little more used to the kind of serving to expect from Camila Giorgi in those hard court matches and I think that is going to be a key to the outcome of this match too. There will be some rough moments for Pliskova to ride out considering how big and aggressive some of the tennis produced by Camila Giorgi can be, but I think the higher Ranked player can do that and she can eventually move through to the Quarter Final behind a good looking win.

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 games v Belinda Bencic: Both of these players have made comfortable progress through the first two Rounds of the Tokyo Olympics and I have to believe that both Belinda Bencic and Barbora Krejcikova can recognise an opportunity in front of them. The top half of the draw has already lost Ashleigh Barty and Aryna Sabalenka and the winner of this Third Round match is going to be feeling confident of at least making it through to the Semi Final of the tournament and moving into a position to win a Medal.

There are still some dangerous player in the top half of the draw that have to be respected and neither of these players can afford to overlook the opponent across from the other side of the net in the Third Round. Comfortable wins in the first couple of Rounds should mean there are two confident players going onto the court, but Barbora Krejcikova is the right favourite as far as I am concerned.

The French Open Champion has been a solid hard court performer on the Singles Tour over the last two seasons and her numbers in 2021 have improved on those produced in 2020. Before the Tokyo Olympics got underway, Barbora Krejcikova had a good run at Wimbledon and she also won a hard court tournament at home in Prague, while a strong first serve has been backed up by an impressive return game.

Her hard court numbers are significantly stronger than the ones Belinda Bencic has produced in 2021 and I have long felt that the Swiss player has been something of an underachiever. That might be a surprising statement considering Bencic has been as high as World Number 4, but she has only reached the Quarter Final at a Grand Slam twice before in her career.

Both of those runs have come at the US Open, but the general hard court numbers have been pretty average and some way below the level that Barbora Krejcikova has produced on the surface. Belinda Bencic does have a decent first serve, but she has not been as convincing a return player as some of the other top names on the Tour and that has left her vulnerable at times.

Belinda Bencic has a losing record against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts since the start of the 2020 season and she is just 2-4 in those matches in 2021. Some of the losses have been particularly one-sided and that has largely been down to the poor return numbers produced in those matches, which is a concern when facing someone who can serve as well as Barbora Krejcikova.

The Swiss player has lost all four matches against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and Belinda Bencic has won 29% of return points played in those matches. A vulnerable second serve has also been heavily exploited in those defeats and I think Barbora Krejcikova will have too much for Bencic in this Third Round match as she keeps her winning run going through to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barbora Krejcikova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jeremy Chardy + 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Olympic Games: 10-7, + 2.94 Units (34 Units Staked, + 8.65% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (October 5th)

After a very strong Wednesday, Thursday proved to be a really disappointing day for the Tennis Picks and I am taking a huge chunk of blame for that.

Any time you make a selection you are going to need some luck behind you, but I should not be putting my faith in certain players to perform when they have a long record of inconsistency yet I did pick at least one player who falls into that category already this week.

I do have a list of players that I simply would not trust as a favourite and I went against that because I thought there was enough value there, but I am not going to make that same mistake twice.


The week is still in a positive position but the numbers took a big dent on Thursday.

Now the plan is to try and finish this week as positively as possible and at least round off with some positive numbers to add to the season totals.

This week has been a busy one in terms of writing out a full analysis for the Tennis Picks being made, but I am hoping the rest of this month will be a little easier to put my reasoning down for the Picks that finish off the 2018 season.


MY PICKS: Juan Martin Del Potro - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-8, + 3.80 Units (38 Units Staked, + 10% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (October 4th)

The middle of the week can be a make or break moment for the Tennis Picks in any given week. but it looks to have made the week this time around.

I don't want to give anything back with the positive results earned, but there are still some big matches to come this week as players chase their spots in the end of season Finals that are due to tae place in the next few weeks.

On Thursday the Tennis Picks will come from the ATP events in Beijing and Tokyo although there are clearly not as many selections as I had on Wednesday.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur @ 2.40 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 11-5, + 9.80 Units (32 Unit Staked, + 30.63% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (October 3rd)

This is the last month of the WTA Tour and the China Open is considered one of the last big opportunities for players to chase those spots in the WTA Finals.

Some of those places have already been determined, but news that Simona Halep has slipped a disc in her back means her participation is clearly up in the air.

That tournament continues on Wednesday as well as the two ATP events being played this week and you can see my selections below. It may not be as busy a day as Tuesday, but more of the matches fit into my criteria and so there are more Picks today than there has been so far this week.


MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Anastsija Sevastova - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-3, + 1.50 Units (14 Units Staked, + 10.71% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (October 1st)

The 2018 Tennis season may be heading into the final six weeks of the Tour, but there are still some very big tournaments to be played.

This week the events in Tokyo and Beijing have put some very good fields together and it is going to be another interesting week on the Tour.

On Monday I have researched a number of selections from the tournaments being played, and you can see 'MY PICKS' below.

MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elise Mertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2018 (September 21st)

It was a tough Thursday for the Tennis Picks but it is more annoying when players take the first break and then decide they are going to forget they have a game plan to adhere to.

That was the case for Marton Fucsovics who lost six straight games after taking the break to lead 3-2 in the first set, while Lukas Lacko couldn't serve out the first set at 5-4 in his defeat to Marco Cecchinato.

The Johanna Konta pick was a poor one as her disappointing 2018 continues, but overall it was a frustrating day.

On Friday we move onto the Quarter Final matches at the various tournaments being played this week and I am looking for a much better return than Thursday.

I have been able to research the Tennis Picks for the Quarter Final selections, but I won't be able to write up a full analysis of these matches for Friday. Instead you can see 'MY PICKS' below.


MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 5-7, - 3.82 Units (24 Units Staked, - 15.92% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (September 20th)

The Tennis tournaments around Asia and Europe continue on Thursday and I am looking to build on what was a better Wednesday than a Tuesday.

I didn't have a lot of luck on Tuesday, but that wasn't the case yesterday and I am hoping there is some momentum to take into the remainder of the week. On Thursday we will get to see the full Quarter Final line up put together in the tournaments being played and there are some big names still involved as they go in search of a title.

The Picks on Thursday come from the three tournaments I have focused on so far at WTA Tokyo, ATP Metz and ATP St Petersburg with the matches being played across a number of hours.


Johanna Konta - 2.5 games v Donna Vekic: There have been some fitness concerns around Johanna Konta this summer which raises some doubts when it comes to backing her in this Second Round match in Tokyo. The First Round win might have eased some of those concerns for some backers, but I think Konta was playing an overmatched opponent and it won't be anything like as straight forward as when she faces Donna Vekic.

It has been a tough twelve months overall for Konta having made her way up the World Rankings and looking like someone who could challenge for Grand Slam titles. This year her numbers on the hard courts have been slightly worse than in 2016 and 2017, but Konta is still very comfortable on the surface and she will need all of her experience on this surface to beat Vekic.

Donna Vekic has a strong record on the hard courts and her win over Sloane Stephens in the First Round has to be massively respected. The Croatian has arguably shown some better form than Konta over the last couple of months on the hard courts, but the second serve can be attacked and I do think Konta has the overall edge over her on this surface.

They have played a couple of very close matches against one another in the past and the injury concerns around Konta has to swing some of the momentum towards Vekic. However I do think Konta has had enough time to rest up and be ready for a final push in the 2018 season and I will look for her to get the better of the second serve battle and that should lead to a win and a cover of this number in a tough Second Round match.


Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 games v Mikhail Kukushkin: This is not the first time that Daniil Medvedev and Mikhail Kukushkin have met in Russia, but Medvedev looks a much improved player since winning their previous match in Moscow in 2016.

Like with many players up and coming on the Tour, Medvedev has had some problems with his consistency at this moment in his career. However he has had some much improved numbers on the hard courts in 2018 and that has seen him produce a huge amount of wins with the last couple of wins being very important for him.

A strong end to 2018 could see Medvedev in a position to be Seeded at the next Grand Slam at the Australian Open in January 2019 and that has to be the goal for the Russian in the remainder of the season. He certainly has a chance for another strong run in a hard court tournament in St Petersburg having performed so well in North America in the lead up to the US Open.

Medvedev has produced some very strong numbers on the hard courts and he looks like he could have the measure of the talented Mikhail Kukushkin. The latter has struggled for consistency on the main ATP Tour despite his obvious quality, and there has been a real problem for Kukushkin when it comes to hard court tennis.

Despite beating Denis Istomin in the First Round, Kukushkin has a losing record on the hard courts in 2018 in main ATP matches. His numbers are not close to where he would like with only a 68% hold percentage and that is not going to cut it against a returner like Medvedev who has had joy on that side of his game.

Kukushkin is not exactly someone who has been a dominant returner either and I think he will find it tough to compete with Medvedev unless the young Russian has a bad day in the office. With the home crowd behind Medvedev I expect his focus to remain strong in this match and I will look for him to cover the number even though it looks a big one on paper.


Lukas Lacko - 2.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: I will admit I am not always keen on backing Lukas Lacko despite the sometimes decent performances he can produce on the Tour. The majority of his time is spent on the Challenger circuit these days and the Lacko return game is not really up to the standard to see him become a regular back on the ATP Tour.

In saying that I do think Lacko can get the better of French Open Semi Finalist Marco Cecchinato who has continued to struggle on the hard courts.

The Italian is just 1-16 since the beginning of 2016 on this surface and it continues to be on that baffles Cecchinato. One of the main problems Cecchinato has had is in the return game as he can't get his timing right on the hard courts although it does have to be said his numbers are significantly better in 2018 than they have been in the last couple of years.

Cecchinato is showing some signs of improvement on the hard courts, but the return continues to be a challenge for him with just an 11% break percentage on the surface. He may get a few more chances against the inconsistent Lacko whose serve is one that can be very vulnerable, but Cecchinato is generally going to feel the pressure of having to serve at his very best to stay in the match.

Lacko has shown a much better ability to get to the breaks of serve on the hard courts and I think that could be a key in deciding the outcome of the match. I do think Lacko will have to serve better than he has for the most part on the hard courts, but doing that should mean he has the edge in the match and I will look for the Slovakian to cover the number.


Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 games v Radu Albot: It was supposed to be a tough looking First Round match for Marton Fucsovics when he met Adrian Mannarino, but he made easy work of the match. 2018 has been a real breakthrough year for Fucsovics and he is showing little sign of wearing down and coasting towards the end of the season.

A strong end to the 2018 season may see Fucsovics on the brink of being Seeded at the Australian Open which underlines the kind of improvement he has made this season.

The hard courts may not be the favourite surface for Fucsovics, but he has produced some strong performances on it. You could definitely argue that the 9-10 record on the main ATP Tour does not reflect the performances he has put together and Fucsovics has been considerably stronger than Radu Albot who faces him in the Second Round.

Albot did have a good First Round win, but there has been a general struggle for him on the hard courts. His numbers are not that impressive overall, but there is another significant drop when it comes to main ATP Tour matches on the hard courts and I do think he will have difficulties getting into this one.

The Fucsovics return numbers are stronger than Albot's and the latter has not had as much success when it comes to protecting the serve too. When you put it together it would be a surprise if Fucsovics is not able to win this match and I think he will have the stronger display that can see him cover the number in this Second Round match.

MY PICKS: Johanna Konta - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lukas Lacko - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, + 0.18 Units (16 Units Staked, + 1.13% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (September 19th)

It wasn't an ideal start to the Tennis Picks this week but I have to admit I was a little frustrated with a couple of the Picks made on Tuesday.

Victoria Azarenka and Ashleigh Barty both had enough chances to cover in their matches, but they waited too long to make their move although I don't think either will care as they are through to the next Round which is the only aim for the player.

On another day I would have had both return as a winner, but thankfully Daniil Medvedev prevented it being a complete rubbish of a day by beating Joao Sousa comfortably enough in their match in St Petersburg later in the day.

Wednesday looks to be a busier day all around and that means I have a number of Tennis Picks which cover three tournaments. I will add a couple from ATP Metz once the market has been formulated and those will be added to this thread.


Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: There is something of a revenge mission for Karolina Pliskova to take part in in this Second Round match as she faces Daria Gavrilova. The latter beat Karolina's twin sister in the First Round in Tokyo, but Gavrilova has struggled when she has faced the big hitting and more consistent Karolina Pliskova in the past.

The Gavrilova win over Kristyna Pliskova came in a very close match and it might have given her a real idea of what kind of power she is facing in this match. However she is going to have to dig deep in this one too even if Karolina Pliskova has not been in the best of form in the second half of the season.

Even the Pliskova numbers have taken a big hit in that down turn in form but she was looking like she could get back towards her best tennis at the US Open. The defeat to Serena Williams will have hurt, but Pliskova should be very good in the conditions in Tokyo as long as she has the serve working like it can.

No one will doubt this is a very big number for Pliskova to cover considering the recent form she has been in. However I do think the big serve is going to allow Pliskova to tee off on the Gavrilova serve and put all the pressure on the Australian who has been dominated by this Pliskova sister in the past.

Motivation of getting one back for her sister should also inspire Pliskova and I think she is capable of winning this match and covering the number against the weaker Gavrilova serve.


Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: It has been a tough road back from injury for Stan Wawrinka but there are signs that he is making a positive progress. He will be looking for a strong end to 2018 which can help Wawrinka improve his World Ranking to a point he can get back to entering the big tournaments directly rather than with a Wild Card.

At the moment Wawrinka is up to 88 in the World Rankings and he has no points to defend in the last couple of months so will be looking to get back inside the top 50 before the Australian Open begins in January. His win over Aljaz Bedene was a good one in the First Round, but Wawrinka faces a much tougher opponent in the Second Round.

Karen Khachanov had a stunning match with Rafael Nadal at the US Open and he has all the intangibles which suggests he could be a future Grand Slam winner. The Russian has already won a title on the indoor hard courts in 2018 and the home fans should be firmly behind him when he gets his St Petersburg tournament underway.

The numbers Khachanov has produced on the hard courts have been superior to the ones that Wawrinka has been able to come up with and I think that will be a difference maker in this match. As much as Wawrinka has shown some improvement over the last couple of months since the move to the North American hard courts, he is still having some troubles with the return of serve and I don't think that will be helped by a big server like Khachanov.

The Russian has an edge when it comes to the percentage of service games held as well as the percentage of points won behind serve. Khachanov has also produced the better return numbers on this surface as he is breaking 22% of the time compared with Wawrinka down at 16% and that is a significant difference in what looks a close match on the face of things.

Both players were only stopped by some of the biggest names on the Tour in their last few hard court tournaments which means both Khachanov and Wawrinka should play with some real confidence. The latter does have a win here in St Petersburg under his belt so could be more familiar with the conditions at play, but Khachanov should receive plenty of support and I think he will edge out Wawrinka and do enough to cover this number.


Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Quentin Halys: You can't always tell what you're going to get with Benoit Paire, but he should be well supported by the fans in Metz after a stunning display for France in the Davis Cup. His crushing win over Pablo Carreno Busta helped France win one rubber in their 3-2 win over Spain in the Davis Cup Semi Final this past weekend and that should mean Paire is playing with some real confidence.

His opponent is compatriot Quentin Halys who is also going to be riding some confidence into this tournament. Last week Halys reached the Final of a Challenger event in Istanbul but this is a big step up for a player that has not been used to playing main ATP Tour matches throughout his career.

Halys might not have had many hard court matches on the main ATP Tour as he is 1-3 in that situation in 2018. However the Frenchman has shown improvement in his return game while keeping himself steady behind serve and that makes him pretty dangerous in this one.

As well as Paire played at the US Open in a tight loss to Roger Federer and keeping in mind the strong win in the Davis Cup this past Friday it does have to be said that Paire has produced declining numbers in hard court matches in recent years. The serve has particularly been vulnerable which may give Halys a chance for the upset, although it will mean the lower Ranked Frenchman has found a way to get more out of his return game.

Paire's successes on the hard courts have come thanks to a stronger return game than in previous years which has made up for some of the decline in the service numbers. I do think that will make Paire vulnerable the deeper he goes into the hard court tournaments and the better players he comes up against, but in this one I think he rides the momentum of the weekend and can get the better of an opponent who may be more fatigued.

There is no doubt that Paire is a hard player to trust, but I will back him to get the better of Halys in this one with a couple of key breaks of serve helping him cover the number.


Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: At the start of 2018 there were a number of big name players on the men's Tour who were returning from long-term injuries and one of those was Kei Nishikori. It is perhaps not a big surprise that Nishikori has been as inconsistent as he has for much of the season with that in mind, but he remains a solid hard court player.

I think he can get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in this Second Round match in Metz because there are some doubts about the German which won't have been erased by beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the First Round. Tsonga has missed much of 2018 with an injury and was making his first appearance on a tennis court in a competitive match in months and so I won't read too much into the Gojowczyk win.

There have been some injury concerns Gojowczyk has been dealing with himself and being anything less than 100% for this match would make it that much tougher.

To be fair to the German he has played well on the hard courts in 2018 with a strong hold percentage, although there is room to improve when it comes to the return of serve. That is an area that Nishikori will want to improve too going into 2019, but the Japanese player has been more effective than Gojowczyk and I do think that can make the difference in this match.

It also has to be pointed out that Gojowczyk's numbers on the hard courts have taken a considerable dent over the last couple of months as he has struggled with some kind of fitness issue. His hold and break percentages have both dropped in that period and I think Nishikori is good enough to find a way to break him at least once in the first two sets which may help him overcome the number set by the layers.


Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Constant Lestienne: On an indoor hard court this will always feel like a big number no matter which two players are competing on the main ATP Tour simply because of the toughness of breaking an opponent on the surface. That is probably the biggest issue for Richard Gasquet when he takes on his compatriot Constant Lestienne who is making his first appearance in a main ATP tournament this week.

Lestienne didn't have that spot handed to him as he came through a couple of Qualifers and then beat Jurgen Zopp in the First Round. There is little doubt that he will pose a threat having won more hard court matches this season than Richard Gasquet has played, although you have to also accept the vast majority of those have been played at a lower level than what he is facing here in Metz.

The numbers have been impressive from Lestienne on both serve and return on the hard courts and you can't dismiss what confidence can do to a player. With all the wins behind him, Lestienne will feel very good about his game as long as he is not mentally overwhelmed with playing one of the best players from his home nation.

I expect the Qualifier to know a lot more about Gasquet than the other way around, but Lestienne's numbers have taken a hit whenever he has faced top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface. Lestienne did beat Marcos Baghdatis earlier in 2018, but his hold and break percentage have dropped markedly when facing the top 100 Ranked opponents both in 2018 and his career in general.

Richard Gasquet has not been at his best on the hard courts over the course of 2018 but he did reach the Third Round at the US Open and beat a couple of opponents who are stronger than the one he will see here. Gasquet is also a strong indoor hard court player, especially when he plays in France, and his overall numbers are that much stronger than Lestienne's that I think he can be backed to cover the number.

It may only take a couple of breaks of serve to do that, but I expect Gasquet to put Lestienne under pressure to at least get another one on top of that. With that in mind I will back Gasquet to cover what I consider to be a big indoor hard court number on the ATP circuit, but at odds against I do think that is worth chancing.

MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.18 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (September 18th)

The 2018 Tennis season is in the final stretch with just two months left before the ATP World Tour Finals come to an end, but there is still plenty of tournaments to get through before we get to that point.

The final Grand Slam of the season may be in the books with the Serena Williams meltdown in the Women's Final still very much in the headlines, but players still have things to achieve to finish off the 2018 season. Improving the World Rankings ahead of the 2019 season is important as that would mean better potential Seeding at the Australian Open which begins just three weeks into the new season, while others are bidding to earn their spot in the WTA Finals and ATP World Tour Finals which round out the 2018 season.

We may have got through the majority of the biggest tournaments in 2018, but that does not mean the Tennis Picks are ready to call it a day for the season. I had a good showing at the US Open to keep the season in a positive position, but there is still work to do to make sure the 2018 season is a good one and keep the momentum to take into the 2019 season.

This week the tournaments are being played across Asia through to Europe and that means there are some vast differences in the times of the matches to be played. The WTA Tour is in Asia and the ATP Tour has a couple of stops in Europe with the two ATP events being played on indoor hard courts.

What that also means for the Tennis Picks this week is that I may stagger adding them to the daily threads I create. On some occasions I will need to add the ATP Picks after the WTA Picks simply because the markets won't be ready at the same time, but that is just something to consider as I look for a positive start to this week's tournaments.


Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Coco Vandeweghe: On first glance this is a very big spread for Ashleigh Barty to cover against a big serving American like Coco Vandeweghe.

However that is not taking into consideration the fact that Vandeweghe has been struggling with an injury and has had a poor season on the hard courts in 2018. That has not been the case for Barty who has been in great form over the last couple of months and who has shown she is capable of dominating in matches she should be.

Ultimately Barty's progress in tournaments have tended to be halted by those players Ranked higher than her but the numbers have remained pretty good throughout 2018.

It will be a big test of the return game for Barty when facing the Vandeweghe serve, but I am not convinced the latter is at full speed at the moment. The American has taken some fairly comfortable losses on the hard courts and I think Barty will get into enough service games to put Vandeweghe under some real pressure.

The Barty serve can be vulnerable, but Vandeweghe can have problems on the return game and that will be true if Barty can get enough first serves into play. While I acknowledge this is a big number, I think Barty is capable of finding the breaks of serve to do that.


Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Kurumi Nara: The second pick from the WTA Tokyo tournament that I am backing is Victoria Azarenka to beat Kurumi Nara and cover what is a big number too.

Nara has not had the best numbers on the hard courts and she has a serve which is likely to be attacked by Azarenka throughout. The key to the cover is clearly the Azarenka serve and whether she is going to be able to get enough first serves in play to at least protect herself against a decent returner in Nara who will have the home fans behind her.

The Azarenka numbers on the hard courts in 2018 are considerably below where she was in 2016 before off court injuries and a pregnancy, but those 2018 numbers are still decent enough to earn some respect.

You can see that Azarenka is not that far away from really putting some consistent runs together and I think the back end of 2018 is important for the former World Number 1 to build her confidence. This is the kind of match that should allow Azarenka to build up her rhythm and I think she is going to be good enough to break down the Nara game, although there will be some early swings in momentum.


Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games v Lukas Lacko: There is little doubt that Marcos Baghdatis has seen his best days on a tennis court, but he remains keen on competing and I do think he can win this First Round match in St Petersburg.

There are signs Baghdatis has slipped a little more in 2018, but his break numbers on the hard courts have been decent and I think that makes the difference in this match.

Lukas Lacko is talented, but he has struggled to take his performances to the main ATP level and his return game has been a real problem for him. That isn't helped by the fact that his own serve is one that can be attacked and I think Baghdatis will be the player who has the majority of break point chances during the course of the match.

Of course he does need to take those chances if he is going to make this a more comfortable day in the office than it may otherwise be. Lacko is someone you don't really want to leave to hang around because he is capable of putting together some solid points at pressurised moments.

However his numbers are some way below what Baghdatis has been able to produce on the hard courts in 2018 and I will back the veteran to move through to the Second Round.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Joao Sousa: Don't underestimate Joao Sousa who has won an ATP title on the indoor hard courts and who also has played better than his results may suggest on this surface in 2018.

His run at the US Open shows what Sousa is capable of when he gets on a run and he is always involved in close matches that could easily have gone his way with a little more luck.

Even with that in mind, I am going to oppose him with Daniil Medvedev who has been in good form over the last couple of months and looks capable of producing a strong end to 2018. Medvedev is comfortable on the hard courts and his numbers have improved in 2018 compared with 2017 as the youngster continues his positive development on the Tour.

Both players should feel pretty good behind their serve, but Medvedev has the slightly better return game and I think that will make the difference in a close match. The home support will aid Medvedev a bit more and I think he will be able to edge out Sousa in three sets.

MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 31.74 Units (1467 Units Staked, + 2.16% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 8th)

The tournaments have reached the Semi Final stage this week and I have to say the last couple of days have been really poor for the tennis picks. Judging by my twitter feed, I am not the only one who has been struggling this week, but I am still in a position to get things turned around before we head to the Shanghai Masters.

This is the time of the season when players begin to focus on the remaining Ranking points in a bid to get into the elite eight of either Tour and a place in the Tour Finals. Things will definitely begin to feel a little clearer on the WTA side of things as their Tour Finals are now a little over two weeks from beginning so there really isn't a lot more places players can turn to earn the points to get into the Singapore tournament.

The Semi Final between Madison Keys and Johanna Konta is going to be huge in that regards on Saturday as the winner could pick up huge points here in Beijing- it is more important for Konta than Keys, but both players will be keen to give their all for a big win.

Saturday should be a very good day of tennis as the tournaments begin to wind down in Beijing and Tokyo.


Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Johanna Konta: The one element that is hard to ignore is the fact that Madison Keys had to spent almost three hours on court to beat the in form Petra Kvitova on Friday. She has less than twenty-four hours to get ready for this very big Semi Final against Johanna Konta who made short work of Shuai Zhang after giving up the first four games of that Quarter Final.

Physical tiredness at this time of the season is an issue after a long year on the Tour and I wonder how much Madison Keys has left after that tough encounter with Kvitova. Winning will have given her a boost in confidence, but Keys still needs a few more points to make sure she can reach Singapore and I like the fact that her serve can make life a little easier for herself.

The big forehand is a huge weapon and she definitely has an edge over Konta in that regards, although the British player has a decent serve of her own and also has the superior backhand. Konta was playing with real aggression towards the end of her match with Zhang in the Quarter Final and that is going to be important for her in this one because she can't give Keys the chance to wind up on her big shots.

I imagine this is going to be a close match, but Konta has shown she can be overpowered at times and Keys is certainly capable of doing that. Tiredness could be a factor after that win over Kvitova, but I think Keys has enough to play for to put together her game and come out with a 63, 57, 64 win.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Elina Svitolina: I don't really rate Agnieszka Radwanska has some people do because I think she is a little more than a 'pusher' who just tries to outlast players with a little less consistency than she brings. That is the kind of match up that might work against someone like Elina Svitolina who is having a very big week in Beijing with some impressive wins behind her.

Neither player has dropped a set this week and both should be very fresh for this Semi Final having not been spending that long on the court. They have won matches impressively and so it should be a good match that both expect they can win.

I think the real key to the match is the ability Radwanska has to try and outlast players and I am not sure Svitolina can penetrate her defences consistently to break down the Pole. That has been a problem in their previous matches which have all been won by Radwanska and she has not dropped a set in the last couple of matches between them.

Svitolina is playing well enough to give Radwanska problems at times in this one, but I think the latter is capable of coming through those difficult moments. That might be enough for Radwanska to battle through to a 64, 63 win and a place in the Final in Beijing this week.


David Goffin + 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: There is still a chance for either Marin Cilic or David Goffin to get into the mix for a place in the World Tour Finals in London and winning the tournament in Tokyo is a big part of that. The winner of this Semi Final will be keeping their hopes alive before heading to Shanghai next week and this should be a really fascinating match when those motivations are in play.

The layers have tipped up Marin Cilic as the more likely winner and you can understand why they have done that. He is a former Grand Slam Champion who has plenty of aggression and a solid first serve which should give him a chance to win any match, while Cilic's returning game should find some joy from the David Goffin service games.

However you can't easily dismiss the fact that Goffin has won both of their matches played in 2016 and both times as a similar kind of underdog as he is going into this match. His own return game can punish the Cilic second serve while Goffin's movement can force Cilic to hit closer to the lines and force his forehand to break down at big moments.

In all honesty Cilic missed a host of chances in his loss to Goffin at Indian Wells back in March and taking those could see him turn the result around. Even with that in mind though, I do think Goffin can make the games he is being given count and find a way to at least cover in this one even in a losing effort and I am going to back him to do that.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: You are going to be a lucky person if you have a ticket to Semi Final day in Tokyo because I think both matches look like they could be excellent ones to watch. Nick Kyrgios and Gael Monfils are two of the bigger entertainers on the Tour and I think they are going to combine for some fine points when the rallies develop.

Both players will be looking to their first serve to set up the points in this one and the one who serves best is likely going to win the match. However that is where Gael Monfils has shown more consistency in recent months and I think the Frenchman is in a better place mentally which is going to give him the edge.

Monfils is still in a very good position to make the World Tour Finals for the first time in his career and winning this tournament will put him right on the brink of doing that. He will need to find a way to make sure he can frustrate Kyrgios by getting enough balls in play to extract errors and not allow the Australian to dictate behind his big serve.

It has been a good week for Kyrgios and he is dangerous when he is in the form he has displayed. That can see him use the momentum to go all the way to the title but I think Monfils will find a way to blunt his aggression and come through with a win and a cover in this second Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-13, - 6.56 Units (46 Units Staked, - 14.26% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 7th)

Thursday proved to be a really poor day for the tennis picks with all three I made coming back on the wrong side. That can happen and it has also meant a turn in the weekly results from a profit to a loss, although there is still time to get this turned around.

Hopefully Friday will be a much stronger day after the way Thursday went as the Quarter Final matches are played.


Grigor Dimitrov + 3.5 games v Rafael Nadal: This is a very interesting Quarter Final between two players who have something to prove in the final weeks of the 2016 season that can give them some momentum to take into the 2017 season. Both Grigor Dimitrov and Rafael Nadal will feel they should be achieving more than they have in 2016 and will be hoping a return to form and overcoming injuries makes 2017 a much more memorable season.

There is much motivation for both Dimitrov and Nadal going into this Quarter Final and I think the match is closer than the layers believe. Of course Nadal has a significant edge in the head to head having won all seven previous matches, but the last of those came twelve months ago and many of their matches have been competitive.

It is very important for Dimitrov to serve well as he won't want to be drawn into too many rallies where his one-handed backhand takes on the Nadal forehand. Over the years that proved to be the undoing of Roger Federer in matches against Nadal and the similar style of play does mean it is an area where Nadal can have some success.

Overall Dimitrov's game has to be close to his very best in this match to make it a close match, but he has been playing some solid tennis over the last few weeks. His manner of defeat against Andy Murray at the US Open is a concern, but Dimitrov has looked better in recent weeks and finally looks to be getting over the poor form that has been blighting his game for some time.

Nadal has been looking strong so far this week in Beijing but this is the biggest challenge he will have faced and I am still not convinced he is back to his very best. His opponent has been playing well enough to take a set in this one and that might be enough for Dimitrov to keep this close enough to stay within this number.


David Goffin - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: An injury prevented Kei Nishikori from being able to finish his match with Joao Sousa but the same thing I said about that match applies here. I made it clear that I think Joao Sousa is a little vulnerable whenever he plays matches against players like Nishikori and, in this case, David Goffin because his opponents look like they are the stronger players in the rallies.

With the first serve unlikely to provide too many easy points, Sousa has to try and out-rally these players and more often than not you would think someone like Goffin would be too good for him.

Their last match was very close, but Goffin had won two easy enough matches against him prior to that and the Belgian player is in good form this week with two impressive wins behind him. Sousa should be physically good to go having received the injury withdrawal through to the Quarter Final, but this is a player trying to end this inconsistent 2016 having lost early in a number of tournaments.

Sousa will have his moments against the Goffin serve too, but I think the latter will knuckle down at the big moments and come through with a 63, 64 win.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: There aren't too many players on the ATP Tour in better form than Gael Monfils when you put together his achievements in the summer and then at the US Open. He has looked very good this week in Tokyo as he makes his move towards a first appearance at the ATP World Tour Finals although this is a difficult match.

Monfils holds the head to head advantage over Ivo Karlovic, but there is no disguising how difficult it can be against the big serving Croatian. So much of the match is not on your own racquet and the key is making sure you remain mentally strong and are able to recognise the big moments when Karlovic looks vulnerable.

He has been in good form since Wimbledon but Karlovic has given up some chances of his own serve in this tournament although he has managed to put some returns together to make sure it hasn't cost him too many sets. Someone like Monfils is playing well enough to look after his own serve though and I like the Frenchman to cover this number.

One break may be enough for Monfils to do that and I think he can move into the Semi Final behind a 76, 64 win.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: This might be a blink and you miss it kind of match between Petra Kvitova and Madison Keys who are two of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour. Both players have strong serves and heavy groundstrokes and the match is very much going to be about which of the two is able to get the first big strike in.

Both can do that behind their serve, but the form is most definitely pointing towards Kvitova who won the tournament in Wuhan and has brushed aside two opponents this week. That includes crushing Garbine Muguruza as Kvitova tries to keep alive her chances of playing in Singapore at the end of the month.

It won't be easy against Madison Keys who has a big first serve and has played well to get into the Quarter Final. She too is chasing a place in Singapore and the winner of this match might be going on to be the favourite to win the title and almost certainly make it to the WTA Finals at the end of the month.

While the Keys first serve is an incredible weapon, she has started slowly in matches and that won't cut it against Kvitova. Keys will also need to serve better than she has and I don't want to oppose Kvitova in the form she has been in over the last two weeks. There will be some big winners from both players, but I think Kvitova is in more consistent form and I can see her breaking the Keys serve late in the first set and then pulling through the second set with a 64, 63 win.


Daria Gavrilova + 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: I am not sure where I stand with Elina Svitolina and what I am expecting of her through her career. There have been times I have watched and thought she is destined for the top, but others when I can't imagine how she ever reached the top 100 on the WTA Tour.

She has shown she can be a big match player with another win over a World Number 1 in 2016 when beating Angelique Kerber in the Third Round. Backing that up is the task for Svitolina who has failed to do that a few times in her career and now faces Daria Gavrilova who has won their last match.

That came in Cincinnati in August and the Australian only dropped four games in the match as Gavrilova dominated the Svitolina serve. She can take advantage of any emotions Svitolina may have from winning another big match in the last Round and Gavrilova has been playing well enough this week to give Svitolina plenty to think about.

The games being given to Gavrilova might not seem a lot, but I think she can win a set which will give her every chance of covering. The chances are that she will win that set with a couple of breaks of serve as Svitolina perhaps loses some focus, which is a negative about her game, and I like taking the games being given to the Australian.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Shuai Zhang: This is a match up that I thought Johanna Konta would enjoy when these players met in Wuhan and the British player didn't fail to cover this number. I think she can get the better of Shuai Zhang again in this Quarter Final in Beijing and once again I am going to back Konta to get the better of this number.

There were moments in the second set last week where Konta played a little too loosely behind her own serve which allowed Zhang to stay with her for a while. However she once again showed she has a clear edge when it comes to the serve and setting up her points compared with Zhang and I like the chances of Konta progressing in this one too.

You can't take anything away from Zhang who crushed Simona Halep in the Third Round, but Konta also had an impressive win when beating Karolina Pliskova. It has been some impressive serving from Zhang which has taken her through the draw this week, but she has struggled when trying to cope with the heavy shots Konta can produce from both sides of the court.

This could be a very big week for Konta who is trying to get into the WTA Finals elite eight and I think she enjoys the match up with Zhang. I am expecting her to be too strong for her for the third time in 2016 and I like Konta finding a way to a 64, 63 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Gavrilova + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-9, - 2.58 Units (34 Units Staked, - 7.59% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 6th)

The headlines have been dominated by Maria Sharapova for the last twenty-four hours and I am going to say one final thing on the matter and then I am not going to want to discuss it again (at least until April 2017 when she returns to the Tour).

Sharapova is a huge star in the tennis world and has plenty of fans who will back her to the hilt- in saying that, I would have hoped she would have come out like a role model should and accepted the CAS decision with some grace. Unfortunately she has decided to go on the rampage and blaming the ITF for almost blowing this out of proportion while some of her sponsors, notably Head, have decided to lay some of the blame on WADA's door.

Both seem to think Sharapova should have been informed individually of all the changes that were being made, but that is a disastrous way of thinking. You would also be forgiven to believe that Sharapova had her ban overturned instead of being given a 15 month ban from CAS with the way she has come out and suggested they were impartial compared with the ITF who tried to 'make an example' of her.

It's a terrible lack of responsibility from Sharapova over the whole affair and all of her publicity seems to be trying to overshadow the fact the CAS decision was that she should serve a fifteen month ban for failing a drugs test. That is the important matter here- CAS didn't buy the excuses she has been serving for several months and suggested she does take a pretty long ban, longer than Marin Cilic had to serve.

Fans of Sharapova will believe her version of events, people who dislike her will always see her as a cheat. I do think it was a genuine mistake in taking Meldonium past December, but Sharapova has to take responsibility rather than blaming others for not telling her it was going to be a banned substance- I mean has everyone forgotten that very few people knew Sharapova was taking the medication including having some of her closest team members unaware so I am not sure who she believes should be telling her that the substance is going on the banned list.

I also have no doubt Sharapova didn't know the potential positive effects Meldonium would have, although it was legal until December 2015 so I am not going to say much more than that. The increased use around big matches is all the evidence I need that Sharapova did think it was having some effect on her abilities on the court, but again I will say it was legal so you can't attack her for that.

I am surprised by the amount of ex professionals and coaches who seem to want to sweep this whole issue under the carpet and I can sympathise with Andy Murray who has made his feelings very clear on the whole lackadaisical attitude the tennis authorities seem to have when it comes to catching those cheating the rules with PEDs.


There is actually some tennis still being played on the court rather than off it between Sharapova and the ITF and the events in Beijing and Tokyo move into the business end of the week. I had a poor week last week but I am looking for a bounce back over the next few days before the ATP Tour moves onto another Masters event in Shanghai.


Marcos Baghdatis v Gilles Muller: All credit has to be given to Gilles Muller for seeing off Tomas Berdych in the manner he did on Wednesday, but this is another difficult test for him. There is no doubt that Marcos Baghdatis is not at the same level as Berdych, but he has proven to have the right game plan to break down Muller and has won all three matches played against him over the last thirteen months.

That will give Baghdatis some confidence that he can make it through to the Quarter Final in Tokyo in what looks an open tournament now that both Berdych and Kei Nishikori have been eliminated from the draw. It has been a good season for Baghdatis who is two wins away from setting the most wins in a single season since 2012 and he had a battling win in the First Round which could give him some confidence.

The first serve percentage has always been a weakness for Baghdatis but he still can produce some big time tennis when he is feeling things. The matches with Muller have been competitive though and there hasn't been much between the players although Baghdatis has been a little better at winning points from the second serve which can make a difference at big moments.

I think it will be close again and could easily go into a third set for the third time in four matches between these players and it has happened each time they have played best of three set matches. I think Baghdatis has been in better overall form over the last couple of months and will hold the mental edge having won all three previous matches against the big-serving lefty and I will back Baghdatis to move into the Quarter Final in this pick 'em contest.


Karolina Pliskova v Johanna Konta: The layers have actually picked Karolina Pliskova has the underdog in this match with Johanna Konta and I have to feel that has something to do with Konta 'chasing the Ranking points' more than Pliskova who will be playing in Singapore.

I simply can't see the reasoning behind the prices otherwise as this has proven to be a very difficult match for Konta in the past. She has lost all five matches against the big serving Czech player including twice in 2016, although it does have to be noted that those matches both needed three sets to be decided.

One of them did come on the grass courts where I would have expected Konta to perhaps favour her chances compared with the hard courts. This surface should allow Pliskova a chance to dictate behind her big serve and I do think she has the power to take advantage of the Konta second serve.

There won't be much between them, but I am surprised Pliskova is the underdog and she has played well in her first couple of matches and showed she is willing to battle for the win. She has come from a set down in her first two matches which might have taken something away physically, but Pliskova can make up for that by serving big and keeping Konta under pressure at the big moments to lead to another win over the British player.


Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: These players are meeting for the third week in a row on the Tour and they have split the first two matches 1-1. The first was won by Caroline Wozniacki in three tough sets, but Agnieszka Radwanska earned some revenge in Wuhan when comfortably dismissing the challenge of the Danish former World Number 1.

There was something not quite right with Wozniacki in Wuhan and I do wonder if the exertions of winning the tournament in Tokyo had just taken something from the gas tank. That shouldn't be the case in Beijing and Wozniacki should be plenty motivated to end 2016 in strong form to make sure her World Ranking is in a decent enough position to take into the 2017 season.

It is almost certain that Radwanska will be playing in Singapore at the end of the month but this is still a player I don't particularly rate that highly. While she is heavily reliant on her movement and defensive skills, I do want to tip my hat to Dan who runs the @tennisratings Twitter account.

He had a brilliant article which showed how poor Radwanska can be in final set deciders and I do think someone like Wozniacki is likely to finish this match stronger than the Pole if they get into that position. The head to head shows Wozniacki has been able to handle the Radwanska game with both players looking to grind down their opponents.

I did back Wozniacki with the games last week and it didn't work out, but I am going to go back to the well this time around and look for a much more competitive performance from the Dane.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Karolina Pliskova @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-6, + 3.42 Units (28 Units Staked, + 12.21% Yield)