NFL Week 2 Picks 2022 (September 15-19)

Things have been a little unforgiving this week and that means my first truly proper thread for the 2022 NFL season will have to wait until Week 3.

Instead you can see my thoughts on the Week 2 Picks below with another Thursday Night Football start.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The AFC West looks to be a Division loaded with plenty of talent, but the top two teams could easily be facing off on Thursday Night Football. Both the Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) and Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) made sure they were not distracted by this early meeting on a short week as they came through with wins in Week 1 and the victor will have sole control of the early Divisional lead.

Last season will still sting the Los Angeles Chargers who missed out on the PlayOffs in a Week 18 defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders, but they did open up with a win over the Raiders for a slight redemption.

Ambitions are much greater in the second year under Head Coach Brandon Staley despite losing three of their last four games in 2021 to finish with a 9-8 record and missing the post-season. After back to back seasons finishing up with a losing record, the winning record in 2021 will be seen as a solid foundation from which to build, while Justin Herbert has shown himself to be one of the stronger young Quarter Backs playing in the NFL.

He will be without Keenan Allen on Thursday Night Football, but the Chargers showed last week that there are plenty of other Offensive weapons that can make plays for their Quarter Back. I would also expect Mike Williams to have more of an impact in the game, while Justin Herbert will be confident playing behind this Offensive Line as he looks to find the time to attack the Kansas City Secondary.

It will help if the Chargers can move the ball a little more effectively on the ground and I do think Los Angeles can establish the run in this one having seen the Arizona Cardinals produce 4.7 yards per carry against the Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Line in Week 1. Austin Ekeler is also an important pass catcher out of the backfield and I do think the Chargers can continue matching up as well with the Chiefs as they did last season when averaging 29 points per game.

Of course the expectation is that the Chargers will have to score plenty of points to have a chance to upset the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, especially after watching Patrick Mahomes crush the Arizona Defensive unit in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes may have lost Tyreek Hill in the off-season, but there are plenty of talented players for him to target instead and spreading the ball around makes Kansas City that much harder to contain.

JC Jackson is a big miss for the Chargers in the Secondary and I do think Patrick Mahomes will have plenty of successes when it comes to moving the chains.

He will also have that much more time to hurt the Defensive Backs if Kansas City are able to stick with the run game having seen the Chargers give up some big yards on the ground last week. In terms of the overall number given up to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Chargers Defensive Line played well, but the Raiders were moving the ball at almost 5 yards per carry and that is an issue for the road team.

If the Chiefs can stay committed to the run, I do think their Quarter Back can have another big game after the strong Week 1 performance. You can understand why people are keen to back the Chiefs at home on the short week, but there may be one or two kicking problems with Harrison Butker set to miss out.

The Kicker has been very efficient, but Kansas City may have to take a few more risks to keep the chains moving rather than settling for long Field Goals. Ultimately I am not sure that is a big concern in a game where the Chiefs won't want to kick Field Goals in what could be a high-scoring game and I do think both teams will be able to move the ball efficiently for much of the night.

Games between the Chargers and Chiefs have been very competitive in the last couple of seasons as Los Angeles have looked to match up better with the best team in the AFC West. Last season they split the two games and that is the second year in a row thaw has happened, while three of the four games were settled by six or fewer points.

The Chargers were beaten in Overtime in their home game, but have won two in a row at Arrowhead Stadium and I think there is enough Offensive output from Los Angeles to do the same here with more than a Field Goal worth of points.

Los Angeles are now 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four visits to the Kansas City Chiefs, while the road team have been dominated in the Divisional Games between these two AFC West rivals. Both teams have some strong trends going in their favour, but a standout trend is that the Chargers have gone 16-4-2 against the spread in their last twenty-two games as the road underdog in Divisional Games.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes as a home favourite is never an easy proposition, but Justin Herbert can match him here and I think the Chargers look the play with the points.

Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Both the Miami Dolphins (1-0) and Baltimore Ravens (1-0) beat AFC East opponents in Week 1 and they will be looking to maintain unbeaten starts to the season in what is an important year for both teams and players on both squads.

Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson are the Quarter Back of the Dolphins and Ravens respectively and this is a big season for the pair- Tagovailoa is still trying to prove that he can be the franchise Quarter Back that Miami have been searching for ever since Dan Marino retired, while Lamar Jackson has refused to sign the contract extension with the Baltimore Ravens and is looking to prove himself as worthy of the money he is demanding, either with the Ravens or with another team in the NFL.

He did what he needed to do in the win over the New York Jets in Week 1, but this is expected to be a much tougher challenge for Jackson. The problem for the Ravens and their Quarter Back is that there are a lot of skill players who will earn the respect of a solid Miami Defensive unit, while the Offensive Line struggled to open the running lanes last week.

The expectation is that the Ravens may struggle to establish the run in this one too against the Miami Defensive Line which played well against the Patriots last time out, but they will have to be wary of Lamar Jackson and his ability on the ground.

It does help that Jackson is trying to prove himself as a passer, but Miami will likely have a scout on him when the pocket breaks down. They can do that with a full confidence in the Secondary and matching up with the Receiving corps that the Baltimore Ravens are going to bring out on the field and the Dolphins will believe they can play well enough on this side of the ball to give their Quarter Back and Offensive unit the chance to earn the upset on the road.

Running the ball was an issue for the Dolphins last week, which is disappointing considering they had been playing with the lead for much of the game against the Patriots, but new Head Coach Mike McDaniel will use short passes in place of a running game at any point. That is likely to be the approach in this one and that means additional pressure on Tua Tagovailoa to build on what was largely a positive Week 1 performance.

He has had an instant rapport with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle continues to show that he is progressing exactly how the Dolphins would have hoped.

I expect Tua Tagovailoa to be able to have plenty of success in this one, although he has to be aware of the Baltimore pass rush with some issues on the Miami Offensive Line. Throwing the ball quickly to the Backs coming out of the backfield will be key to slow some of those pass rushers down, while Tua Tagovailoa has to make sure he avoids the one or two poor throws that have blighted him throughout his career.

I do think he can do enough to help the Miami Dolphins in this game and having more than a Field Goal worth of points looks appealing. The Ravens had crushed Miami three times between 2016 and 2019, but the Dolphins beat them pretty easily at home last season and I think they can back that up with a competitive performance on Week 2 of the 2022 season.

Miami have not always played well after facing the New England Patriots, but they are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog. The Dolphins ended 2021 in strong form, which led to a surprising decision to fire Brian Flores as Head Coach, but the players look to have already signed on for the evolution under Mike McDaniel and I do think they can do enough to keep up on the scoreboard and potentially even earn the upset.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Tom Brady arrived an immediately made the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) amongst the favourites to win the Super Bowl- they managed that in his first season before a narrow loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champions last season and Tom Brady is clearly motivated enough to return for 'unfinished business'.

We will know much more about the Buccaneers when injuries clear up, but they do look a short price to win this game in Week 2 with so many players limited or absent completely.

They are also facing a Divisional rival who have gotten the better of Tampa Bay in Brady's time here and the New Orleans Saints (1-0) will be hoping the second half momentum from the win over Atlanta in Week 1 can carry over to this game.

Jameis Winston had a couple of issues out of the win over the Falcons, but the New Orleans starting Quarter Back is set to play. A bigger worry for the Saints may be the status of Alvin Kamara, but Winston's performance in Week 1 will be encouraging, while Dennis Allen will be boosted by the win in his first game in charge as Head Coach of New Orleans.

The Saints will have some issues moving the ball on the ground with or without Kamara, who is trending towards being ruled out, but the bigger blow is losing his pass-catching ability coming out of the backfield. It will be a loss for Jameis Winston, but I expect the Quarter Back to have a bit more success throwing the ball at the Tampa Bay Secondary compared with Dak Prescott in Week 1, although the Offensive Line has something to prove.

Much may also come down to how the New Orleans Saints can continue to match up with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Defensive unit. This is the side of the ball which has helped them win the last four regular season games against the Buccaneers, although Tampa Bay do have a PlayOff win over New Orleans, and I do think the injuries on the Buccaneers Offensive Line will help the Saints pressure Brady for much of the game.

Last week the Saints did struggle to stop the run so Leonard Fournette could have another strong showing, and that could be the key for Tampa Bay if they are going to cover this number as the road favourite. Keeping Brady and company in third and manageable will negate any Offensive Line worries in the pass protection and it will mean Brady is in a strong position to keep the chains moving throughout this Week 2 game.

However, any third and long spots will be tough to convert for Tampa Bay who have big injuries to deal with in the Receiving corps too. Chris Godwin has been ruled out, while Mike Evans has been limited in practice all week, and there is no Rob Gronkowski to make up the numbers.

It just feels like it will be a close and competitive game and New Orleans record against the Buccaneers is very difficult to ignore.

New Orleans are 7-1 against the spread in the last eight games between these Divisional rivals.

The Saints have also been a very strong underdog to back in recent years, although those were under Sean Payton rather than Dennis Allen. Backing against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers doesn't feel that good, but I do think New Orleans are capable of winning this one outright and I think they are worthy of backing with the points.

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants Pick: The revenge game did not go the way Baker Mayfield would have wanted after the Carolina Panthers (0-1) went down to a narrow defeat to the Cleveland Browns. The Quarter Back did not play as well as he would have liked, but he has a chance of bouncing back in Week 2 and prove he can be a viable starter in the NFL.

His time with the Browns was largely successful, but there was always a feeling that Baker Mayfield would not be able to take Cleveland to the next level and a parting of the ways was obvious as soon as Deshaun Watson was signed from the Houston Texans.

There is an opportunity for Baker Mayfield as he heads on the road to face the New York Giants (1-0) who are playing with a huge upset victory secured. New Head Coach Brian Daboll will have been very pleased with the character shown by his players in coming from behind to beat the Tennessee Titans on the road, but he has made it clear that it is about backing up that victory.

If they can do that, the Giants have a chance to build some momentum with games against the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears to come, but no one associated with the team can afford to look too far ahead. Losing records in the NFL have become the norm for the two teams playing out of Gotham, but the New York Giants have big ambitions.

Daniel Jones is the other Quarter Back on the field and he has as much to prove as Baker Mayfield, perhaps even more so.

He did not have a very good game passing the ball against the Tennessee Titans, but Daniel Jones was not helped by the Offensive Line who were much happier running the ball than in pass protection. The Giants gave up a lot of Sacks in their Week 1 win over the Titans, but Saquon Barkley had arguably his best game since suffering a big injury a couple of years ago and I do think the Giants will lean on their Running Back again.

I do think Barkley can have a big game and I think that also helps Daniel Jones who can make plays with his legs and help move the chains on the ground. The Quarter Back should be able to make plays from third and manageable spots, but Interceptions are a worry for Jones and the Giants fans so keeping this game contained to lean on the run is the key for New York.

After the tight loss last week, Carolina will be looking for more from Christian McCaffrey who struggled to help the team get things going on the ground. This may be another week where they have issues running the ball after the New York Giants played pretty well up front against the Titans and Derrick Henry, and this only puts more pressure on Baker Mayfield.

Like Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield will be hoping for more protection from his Offensive Line having been Sacked a number of times by the Cleveland Browns, but he may also benefit from playing a Giants team that have could struggle to generate a pass rush. Injuries to key players that were expected to provide that pressure have hurt New York, while they also have a couple of starters missing from the Secondary, which has to give Baker Mayfield plenty of encouragement to throw downfield.

Carolina have talented players in the Wide Receiver positions, but I am not always convinced about Mayfield's accuracy and that could be an issue for the Panthers throughout the season.

I do think both teams will be able to move the chains and have success Offensively, but my lean is with the New York Giants with the team being at home and that despite the poor record that they have had against the Carolina Panthers in recent seasons.

The Giants did beat the Carolina Panthers at home by a comfortable margin last season, while New York are 4-1 against the spread in their last five at home against this NFC rival.

New York have some really poor trends going against them, but the Panthers are just 3-13 against the spread in their last sixteen games and they are also 0-4 against the spread in their last four as the underdog.

This is not the biggest spread, but the Giants are hard to trust as a favourite with Daniel Jones being asked to cover. It is a concern, but I do think they can run the ball effectively for a second week in a row and Daniel Jones did help New York beat Carolina by 22 points here last season and I will look for him to set his team up for another victory in Week 2 of the 2022 campaign.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: There would have been plenty of motivation inside the locker room and coming from the stands when the Seattle Seahawks (1-0) prepared to face the Denver Broncos and former Quarter Back Russell Wilson. The win on Monday Night Football means the Seahawks are the only team in the NFC West who have a win on the board, but they are going to have to be a lot better than they were in Week 1 if they are going to keep winning games.

Make no mistake, Denver shot themselves in the foot every time they looked to be about to take control of the game in Seattle.

The Seahawks may feel they could benefit from another team making errors in this one though as they visit the San Francisco 49ers (0-1) who somehow managed to lose to the Chicago Bears in a rainstorm last week. Trey Lance did not have a very good game as the new starting Quarter Back, but the 49ers will still be unsure how they managed to lose a game they had been dominating before Justin Fields made one or two big time throws that led to Touchdowns.

We have to expect a better reaction from the 49ers than we saw in Week 1 and I honestly do think the weather was a real hindrance for Trey Lance. Kyle Shanahan is likely to be Coaching to put his Quarter Back in a stronger position and I expect San Francisco to be able to run the ball very well, even with Elijah Mitchell ruled out with an injury.

Jeff Wilson Jr will come in as the starter and he could have a big game against the Seattle Defensive Line who had struggled to contain Denver. With a dual-threat Quarter Back in Trey Lance, I do think the 49ers can run the ball efficiently and that is going to make life easier for Lance who will also be throwing in much more familiar conditions than he would have felt he was playing in last week.

With rookies and younger players in the Secondary and now Jamal Adams, Trey Lance should be able to have a much better game than he did in Week 1 when many questioned whether the San Francisco 49ers had made the right decision with their Quarter Back. Short passes should get him going early in this one as Kyle Shanahan will scheme up to help his Quarter Back and players like Deebo Samuel can make plenty of plays from those short passes with San Francisco getting blockers out in front.

The question for Seattle is whether they can continue to stiffen up in the Red Zone and force turnovers or for teams to kick Field Goals rather than push into the End Zone for Touchdowns. It is something they have been able to do for a while and last week it was the key for Seattle, while also keeping the pressure from Geno Smith and the Offense.

There were some very good moments for Geno Smith last week and he was clearly very excited to hear his name being serenaded from the stands, but Pete Carroll and the Seahawks will know they need more Offensively. Having Kenneth Walker III ready to play his first game will be important as they look to establish the run against the tough looking San Francisco Defensive Line, but it does feel like the Seahawks are going to be reliant on the Geno Smith arm.

More rookies on this side of the ball impressed last week as Geno Smith was protected by young Right and Left Tackles, but I expect the Seahawks Offensive Line to be challenged by the 49ers pass rush. That will especially be the case if the road team is playing from third and long spots and Geno Smith will have to improve his own accuracy in order to even keep this game close.

DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are strong Receiving options, but I am not sure Geno Smith will have a lot more consistency than we saw on Monday Night Football.

Barring another couple of goal-line stands that lead to turnovers or poor clock management from the Head Coach, Seattle are likely to struggle to keep up with the 49ers. This may be a Divisional Game, but there is no doubt how much emotion was used to get the better of former Quarter Back Russell Wilson returning to Seattle with his new team and that emotion can be difficult to manage on the climbdown.

The Seahawks do have a strong recent record at San Francisco, but it does feel the road team are much weaker than they have been in those visits.

Seattle are just 4-12 against the spread in their last sixteen following a straight up win, while the 49ers have bounced back from losses to go 4-1 against the spread in their last five in that spot.

The 49ers are also 13-1 against the spread in their last fourteen games following a straight up loss on the road as a favourite and I do think they show much better in warmer, drier conditions. San Francisco have not always been a trustworthy home favourite as they tend to be overrated knowing the public will want to back them, but I think they will be more focused following a defeat and I think Trey Lance makes much more positive headlines.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: In the coming years we may see a change in this statistic, but teams that fall into 0-2 holes to open the season have struggled to make the PlayOffs in the NFL. That may change now we have eighteen game regular seasons, but I don't think either the Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) or the Dallas Cowboys (0-1) will want to test the theory out in 2022.

Disappointing home losses were the outcome of Week 1 for these two teams and there is plenty of work for them to do ahead of this one.

The Bengals will certainly want to see their Offensive Line come together and offer Joe Burrow a lot more protection than they gave him in the defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Dallas Cowboys have to go with a backup Quarter Back in Cooper Rush after Dak Prescott broke his hand and has been ruled out for a number of games.

Cooper Rush has experience filling in at Quarter Back from last season when he led the Cowboys to a win over the Minnesota Vikings, but things have changed in Dallas and the whole Offensive unit looks to have taken a backwards step since that game in Week 8 of the 2021 season. Players like Amari Cooper are no longer with the Cowboys, while injuries means Dallas are without Michael Gallup and James Washington right now.

It wasn't that long ago that Dallas may have leaned on the Offensive Line and Ezekiel Elliot at Running Back, but I think Elliot is already on the downward path in his career as a starter. The Cowboys may struggle to establish the run against this Bengals Defensive Line who made a positive start containing the run, and they may knuckle down and look to control the line of scrimmage to force Cooper Rush to beat them with his arm.

I do expect Rush to have more time than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed for Dak Prescott, but the Bengals Secondary has to be respected and it looks to be a big challenge for Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys in a second home game in succession.

I am also expecting Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals to have some issues, although the second half performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers was much more positive than their opener. The big question will be how much work the Offensive Line have gotten in this week to improve their protection of their franchise Quarter Back and to give him time to dissect what looks a vulnerable Dallas Secondary.

It can only help if Joe Mixon can run the ball a little stronger and keep the team in third and manageable spots, and I am looking for the Bengals to use the momentum of their second half in Week 1 to carry into this one.

Tee Higgins is also set to be available and that should help Joe Burrow as another option opposite Ja'Marr Chase and I do think the loss last week should only have focused the Bengals who won't overlook the injury hit Cowboys.

If they had found a way to win the game in Overtime against the Steelers, there could be an argument that Cincinnati would have perhaps not been so focused on this non-Conference opponent. However, the defeat last week makes this a much more important game and the Bengals look to have a clear edge on both sides of the ball and I do think they can pull away and cover this big number.

The Bengals are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine following a straight up loss and they have covered in their last five on the road.

Dallas were beaten by a big margin in their first game, but they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five following a double digit loss and I do think the Cincinnati Bengals can make the big plays behind Joe Burrow to win this one.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Chargers + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New York Giants - 1.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans + 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

College Football Week 3 Picks 2021 (September 18th)

A poor Week 1 has been followed by a much stronger Week 2 for the College Football Picks and now I will be looking for more from the selections as we get set for Week 3.

There are some big games coming up through Saturday.

It is a chance for some to redeem themselves and others to keep their perfect run going and that should mean plenty more drama having been treated to some big time Football already this season.

Boston College Eagles @ Temple Owls Pick: Seventeen returning starters split almost evenly across the Offensive and Defensive units would have been encouraging for the Boston College Eagles (2-0) going into the 2021 season. They have won at least six games for the fifth season in a row and many have tipped up Boston College as being able to win at least eight games for the first time since the 2009 season.

Some of the enthusiasm may have dissipated after Phil Jurkovec has been forced to undergo an operation on his hand which is likely going to keep the starting Quarter Back out for the entirety of the 2021 season. He had opened up from where he had left off in 2020 after throwing for over 2500 passing yards, but the injury means Boston College will have to hand the keys over to Dennis Grosel.

This is an experienced back up Quarter Back who did tie the single game record for passing yards in relief of Jurkovec last season, but Dennis Grosel will be under pressure to fill some big boots. It may also mean a change in schemes on the Offensive side of the ball with the Eagles likely to lean on their strong looking Offensive Line to pave the way for a Running Back committee that have shown they are ready to produce some big numbers.

In the first two games the Eagles Offensive Line have been very productive on the ground and they should be able to impose themselves on the improved Temple Owls (1-1) Defensive Line. Last season the Owls struggled to stop the run, but they are expected to be a little more stout this time around, although containing Boston College may still be beyond their capabilities.

I expect the entire Boston College team to step up and try and make up for their lost Quarter Back by giving their all to help Dennis Grosel out. Offensively the Quarter Back is capable of making some big plays himself, but I also expect the Eagles Defensive unit to try and contain Temple who are potentially playing with a very inexperienced Quarter Back of their own.

Justin Lynch performed well as the Owls bounced back from a crushing loss to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights by beating the Akron Zips in Week 2 of the season. However, this is another step up in level for Lynch who will be facing a Boston College Defensive unit that may be the best one they have seen in Chestnut Hill since 2017.

The early form is positive and it is going to be very difficult for Justin Lynch to move the ball with freedom like he did against the Zips last week. The Eagles Defensive Line has been strong and limited teams to 3.5 yards per carry and they will be looking to make the Owls rely on their Quarter Back in a one-dimensional manner which will give the Boston College Secondary to step up and make their plays.

Clamping down on the run and forcing some pressure up front has given the Eagles an opportunity to turn the ball over through the air, but the Defensive unit will be the first to admit that they have yet to be tested. I expect Temple will offer more resistance than the first two teams Boston College have beaten, but the Eagles still look stronger and I expect a big performance without their starting Quarter Back.

These teams are meeting for the first time since 2018, but the favourite is 5-1 against the spread in the last six between the Owls and Eagles, while the road team has covered in each of the last four between former Conference rivals.

Boston College have also covered in their last five games as the road favourite when playing off a double digit win as they are this week and I think the Eagles can cover what is a big spread for any road favourite to deal with.

Western Michigan Broncos @ Pittsburgh Panthers Pick: There is so much to like about this Pittsburgh Panthers (2-0) team who are vastly experienced and capable of reaching the ACC Championship Game. A big win on the road against an opponent from the SEC is encouraging, but Head Coach Pat Narduzzi has to make sure his team remain focused against a team they are expected to beat.

Take nothing away from the Western Michigan Broncos (1-1) who may be the best team playing in the MAC this season, but they were blown out when playing on the road at the Michigan Wolverines in Week 1. The Panthers may not be as strong as the Wolverines, but they have to show the difference in quality between a Power 5 Conference and a non-Power 5 Conference, especially as style points can be important even at this stage of the season.

Winning is the most important part of the game though and I do think it would be a major upset if Pittsburgh are not able to do that. They have eight Offensive starters back and the feeling is that this could be the strongest unit that Pat Narduzzi has had in five seasons, while the Panthers will also be targeting more than eight wins which is the most they have earned in a single season under this Head Coach.

Kenny Pickett is the star of the Offense at Quarter Back, but there are plenty of skill players all around him that he can lean on in any given game. Barring something truly terrible happening, Kenny Pickett is set to become the second leading passer in Pittsburgh school history and any time you can overtake Dan Marino, it means you have had one great career.

Pittsburgh's Offensive Line are looking for a bit more consistency on the ground and this looks a good chance for them to bully the Western Michigan Defensive Line which has given up 5.3 yards per carry. That number is heavily impacted by the game with the Michigan Wolverines, but the Broncos can't sell out to defend the run as they will be looking to try and slow down the Pittsburgh passing attack.

The Wolverines crushed Western Michigan on the ground in Week 1, but I do think the Broncos will have a tough day trying to prevent Kenny Pickett having success through the air. The Quarter Back has been well protected for the most part and Pickett has been able to find the creases in the Defenses he has seen which has helped Pittsburgh move the chains with success in both games played.

I do think the Panthers will be able to score plenty of points, but it is the Defensive unit that is likely going to be step up and help Pittsburgh cover the spread. Once again the Panthers Defensive Line looks like it is going to be very difficult to be moved around and they are likely going to make Western Michigan reliant on throwing the ball to keep the chains moving.

So far this season the Panthers have given up just 3 yards per carry and they will believe they can clamp down on the Western Michigan running game. That will only spark the Panthers pass rush which has been dominant in the first two weeks of the season and the Broncos may not get a lot of change from this Panthers Defensive unit.

You have to have a respect for Quarter Back Kaleb Eleby and the Broncos may be the best Offensive unit playing in the MAC, but this is a considerable step up in taking on a Power 5 team. That was an issue for Western Michigan against the Wolverines and this Pittsburgh team will feel they can make their visitors one-dimensional which should be a key in making some big plays on this side of the ball.

The Broncos are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog, while Pittsburgh are 8-2 against the spread in their last ten non-Conference games. However, the Panthers can be hard to trust as a home favourite, while Head Coach Pat Narduzzi has a poor record in covering the spread when favoured by double digits against Group of 5 opponents.

Off a big win it is a concern, but this is not a look-ahead spot for Pittsburgh so I expect a fully focused effort from them. They should have too much power on the Offensive side of the ball and I think that will be enough for the Panthers to go on and cover in Week 3.

Virginia Tech Hokies @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: The West Virginia Mountaineers (1-1) bounced back from a Week 1 defeat to the Maryland Terrapins and now they are going to be defending a strong record at home when facing non-Conference opponents in front of their own fans.

This week it is the Virginia Tech Hokies (2-0) heading to Morgantown as the team look to continue to cool down the hot seat that Head Coach Justin Fuente is sitting on. This is a team who are bringing back plenty of starters, but who saw their 27 year run in Bowl Games end in 2020 when the Hokies could only finish the season with a 5-6 record.

It is perhaps surprising the Head Coach did not lose his job, but an upset win over the North Carolina Tar Heels has been followed up with a confident win over Middle Tennessee and that has to be very encouraging for Virginia Tech fans. However, expectations will really rise if they are able to win here and move to 3-0 for the first time since 2017, especially as Virginia Tech have a very winnable game in Week 4 which could see them become the team to beat in the ACC Coastal Division.

No one can afford to look too far ahead after the kind of years Virginia Tech have had, and they can certainly not afford to look past the West Virginia Mountaineers. The Mountaineers have won their last eighteen at home against non-Conference opponents and they have seventeen starters back this season in what many consider to be Neal Brown's best team in his third year with West Virginia.

Managing the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball is going to be so important for both the Hokies and Mountaineers. The two Defensive Lines have come out with strong performances and they will certainly feel they can plug up the running lanes and force the Quarter Backs to try and win this game with their arm.

Out of the two teams, Virginia Tech have had a bit more success establishing the run, while their Offensive Line has been stronger in pass protection than the Mountaineers. The Hokies also have a fierce pass rush which has opened the season in good form and they will feel they have the pressure up front to try and disrupt the West Virginia passing game.

Jarret Doege is very experienced at Quarter Back for the Mountaineers and he has produced some big numbers in the first two games of the season. Despite the pressure being generated by the Defensive Line, Virginia Tech's Secondary have given up some plays and that has to be encouraging for Jarret Doege considering how much the Mountaineers are likely going to be leaning on his arm.

It will likely mean Virginia Tech are going to need to get a bit more out of Braxton Burmeister if they are going to win on the road and it is a big challenge for the Hokies who won't have played in this kind of atmosphere for almost two years. That can knock a team out of sync with what they want to do and the Mountaineers have a decent Secondary that may feel they can make enough plays to force the Hokies into becoming very predictable Offensively.

I have to respect how tough Virginia Tech can be as a road underdog under the guidance of their current Head Coach, but West Virginia are strong at home. The environment should give them the edge and the Mountaineers were 3-1 against the spread as the home favourite last season, while this may be a stronger team this time around.

Virginia Tech are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven on the road anyway and now face a true test of their character.

The Mountaineers are 9-1-1 against the spread in their last eleven as the home favourite, while they have covered in their last eight games when playing a non-Conference opponent at home and being asked to lay fewer than 17 points. There isn't much between these teams, but I think the game being played in Morgantown is enough of an edge with the Mountaineers to be able to back them to win and cover.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Florida Gators Pick: These two teams met in the SEC Championship in 2020 and it was a highly competitive game, but the feeling is that this regular season meeting may be a little different. Both the Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0) and Florida Gators (2-0) have been perfect so far on the season, but there has been a difference in class of opponent and Alabama are worthy of their place as the road favourite.

Losing key players to the NFL is something that Nick Saban and his entire Coaching staff expect most seasons, while Steve Sarkisian has also left the Crimson Tide this summer. Lesser teams will have been hurt by those departures, but Alabama recruit really well and they are always ready to compete, which is underlined by the fact they have been a constant in the College Football PlayOff having missed out just once.

Mac Jones has moved to the NFL and started for the New England Patriots in Week 1, but there has been a lot of talk about Bryce Young and the Quarter Back has not disappointed. He will be playing his first road game, but Young has to be looking forward to taking on this Florida Defensive unit that struggled in 2020 and who have only returned five starters.

The Gators have not faced anyone near the kind of level of the Crimson Tide, but there have been holes that can be exploited in the Secondary. It is very hard to imagine that the Alabama Crimson Tide are not able to do the same with a big, strong Offensive Line able to protect Bryce Young and also pave the way for some big gains on the ground.

I do think there will be times when Bryce Young is put under pressure by the Florida pass rush, while he is going to be playing in a very difficult environment for the first time. Even then, I expect the new Offensive Co-Ordinator, Bill O'Brien, to put his team in a positive position when they have the ball and the challenge for Dan Mullen and his Florida team is scoring enough points to keep up with their visitors.

Alabama scored at least 38 points in each of their games in the regular season last season, while they have scored 40 or more points in 11 straight regular season games.

That doesn't offer much encouragement for the Florida Gators who gave up 52 points in their defeat to the Crimson Tide in the SEC Championship Game last season. The Gators only lost by 6 points in that game thanks to Kyle Trask and the Offensive unit, but they are only returning five starters on this side of the ball and Trask has moved onto the NFL.

Emory Jones and Anthony Robinson have been splitting reps behind Center in the first two games of the season, but the former has not impressed and the Florida faithful are pushing for Robinson to be named the starter. However, Anthony Robinson may have picked up an injury in Week 2 which could limit his impact on this game and it just makes it very hard to believe Florida can score enough points to stay with the National Championship favourites.

It would be hard enough if Jones was in form and Robinson was 100% ready to go, but facing an Alabama team who are bringing back eight starters on the Defensive side of the ball is always going to be a big test. The Crimson Tide may have their best Defense in years and that is saying plenty when you think of some of the talent that has played for this team and I think they are going to make a statement on this side of the ball.

The Gators Offensive Line have been able to run the ball against Florida Atlantic and South Florida, but this Alabama Defensive Line is not one that can be bullied. I expect they will clamp down on the run and force Florida to try and beat their Secondary and I simply don't believe they can do that.

The Crimson Tide are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as the road favourite, while Florida are 1-6-1 against the spread in their last eight overall.

Dan Mullen is a Head Coach I respect and he is 2-0 against the spread when Florida have been set as the underdog at home since taking over here. His Mississippi State Bulldogs team were also very strong against the spread when set as the underdog and I think Mullen will have a game plan to make life difficult for Alabama, but the quality between the teams is going to be very difficult to bridge.

As long as Bryce Young is able to handle the occasion, Alabama may just put down a marker for their season and produce a statement win.

MY PICKS: Boston College Eagles - 14 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Panthers - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

West Virginia Mountaineers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Colorado Buffaloes - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Arkansas Razorbacks - 22.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Stanford - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

BYU Cougars + 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)

Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (September 18th)

The 2018 Tennis season is in the final stretch with just two months left before the ATP World Tour Finals come to an end, but there is still plenty of tournaments to get through before we get to that point.

The final Grand Slam of the season may be in the books with the Serena Williams meltdown in the Women's Final still very much in the headlines, but players still have things to achieve to finish off the 2018 season. Improving the World Rankings ahead of the 2019 season is important as that would mean better potential Seeding at the Australian Open which begins just three weeks into the new season, while others are bidding to earn their spot in the WTA Finals and ATP World Tour Finals which round out the 2018 season.

We may have got through the majority of the biggest tournaments in 2018, but that does not mean the Tennis Picks are ready to call it a day for the season. I had a good showing at the US Open to keep the season in a positive position, but there is still work to do to make sure the 2018 season is a good one and keep the momentum to take into the 2019 season.

This week the tournaments are being played across Asia through to Europe and that means there are some vast differences in the times of the matches to be played. The WTA Tour is in Asia and the ATP Tour has a couple of stops in Europe with the two ATP events being played on indoor hard courts.

What that also means for the Tennis Picks this week is that I may stagger adding them to the daily threads I create. On some occasions I will need to add the ATP Picks after the WTA Picks simply because the markets won't be ready at the same time, but that is just something to consider as I look for a positive start to this week's tournaments.


Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Coco Vandeweghe: On first glance this is a very big spread for Ashleigh Barty to cover against a big serving American like Coco Vandeweghe.

However that is not taking into consideration the fact that Vandeweghe has been struggling with an injury and has had a poor season on the hard courts in 2018. That has not been the case for Barty who has been in great form over the last couple of months and who has shown she is capable of dominating in matches she should be.

Ultimately Barty's progress in tournaments have tended to be halted by those players Ranked higher than her but the numbers have remained pretty good throughout 2018.

It will be a big test of the return game for Barty when facing the Vandeweghe serve, but I am not convinced the latter is at full speed at the moment. The American has taken some fairly comfortable losses on the hard courts and I think Barty will get into enough service games to put Vandeweghe under some real pressure.

The Barty serve can be vulnerable, but Vandeweghe can have problems on the return game and that will be true if Barty can get enough first serves into play. While I acknowledge this is a big number, I think Barty is capable of finding the breaks of serve to do that.


Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Kurumi Nara: The second pick from the WTA Tokyo tournament that I am backing is Victoria Azarenka to beat Kurumi Nara and cover what is a big number too.

Nara has not had the best numbers on the hard courts and she has a serve which is likely to be attacked by Azarenka throughout. The key to the cover is clearly the Azarenka serve and whether she is going to be able to get enough first serves in play to at least protect herself against a decent returner in Nara who will have the home fans behind her.

The Azarenka numbers on the hard courts in 2018 are considerably below where she was in 2016 before off court injuries and a pregnancy, but those 2018 numbers are still decent enough to earn some respect.

You can see that Azarenka is not that far away from really putting some consistent runs together and I think the back end of 2018 is important for the former World Number 1 to build her confidence. This is the kind of match that should allow Azarenka to build up her rhythm and I think she is going to be good enough to break down the Nara game, although there will be some early swings in momentum.


Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games v Lukas Lacko: There is little doubt that Marcos Baghdatis has seen his best days on a tennis court, but he remains keen on competing and I do think he can win this First Round match in St Petersburg.

There are signs Baghdatis has slipped a little more in 2018, but his break numbers on the hard courts have been decent and I think that makes the difference in this match.

Lukas Lacko is talented, but he has struggled to take his performances to the main ATP level and his return game has been a real problem for him. That isn't helped by the fact that his own serve is one that can be attacked and I think Baghdatis will be the player who has the majority of break point chances during the course of the match.

Of course he does need to take those chances if he is going to make this a more comfortable day in the office than it may otherwise be. Lacko is someone you don't really want to leave to hang around because he is capable of putting together some solid points at pressurised moments.

However his numbers are some way below what Baghdatis has been able to produce on the hard courts in 2018 and I will back the veteran to move through to the Second Round.


Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Joao Sousa: Don't underestimate Joao Sousa who has won an ATP title on the indoor hard courts and who also has played better than his results may suggest on this surface in 2018.

His run at the US Open shows what Sousa is capable of when he gets on a run and he is always involved in close matches that could easily have gone his way with a little more luck.

Even with that in mind, I am going to oppose him with Daniil Medvedev who has been in good form over the last couple of months and looks capable of producing a strong end to 2018. Medvedev is comfortable on the hard courts and his numbers have improved in 2018 compared with 2017 as the youngster continues his positive development on the Tour.

Both players should feel pretty good behind their serve, but Medvedev has the slightly better return game and I think that will make the difference in a close match. The home support will aid Medvedev a bit more and I think he will be able to edge out Sousa in three sets.

MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Season 2018 Update: + 31.74 Units (1467 Units Staked, + 2.16% Yield)

NFL Week 2 Picks 2016 (September 15-19)

The NFL Week 2 Picks will be on this shortened thread and published while I am going to be on holiday... I've been able to put up some analysis for a few of the picks, but not all of them and this thread might not be back to usual until Week 4 if I don't have enough time from returning home and being able to set up the Picks.

The research has been done before I went over to the States for these games.


Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: The NFC North was expected to be a battle between the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings through the entire season before Teddy Brdgewater went down with an injury. The Quarter Back has been lost for the season and the Vikings traded for Sam Bradford as the Vikings are seen to be in a win now position.

The Defensive unit is legit and any team that can look to ride the back of Adrian Peterson are going to be dangerous. Minnesota don’t really want to be looking to Shaun Hill at Quarter Back for too long and I would be surprised if Bradford is not given the start in Week 2.

Only big time Defensive turnovers which led to Touchdowns from that unit helped Minnesota overcome the Tennessee Titans on the road last week. It was an issue for the Offense to move the ball against a fairly average Defense that the Titans own, but that isn’t the case for the Green Bay Packers.

There are some injuries in the Secondary following a win last weekend in Jacksonville with Sam Shields expected to sit. However the Packers played the run well and I can see them loading the box and forcing Minnesota to look elsewhere than pounding the ball with Peterson.

I expect Green Bay to have success slowing down the run and they will get plenty of pressure on whichever Quarter Back is behind this Offensive Line. Clay Matthews is back in his familiar spot and seemed to be everywhere last week, while neither Bradford nor Hill are going to escape the pocket to make plays too often.

The key for Minnesota if they are going to open their new Stadium with a regular season win over a Divisional rival is being able to slow down the Green Bay Packers Offense. You have to say it is a big task for any team in the NFL to have success keeping Aaron Rodgers from scoring points and he was brilliant again in the win over Jacksonville.

Some outrageous plays were made as Rodgers moved around in the pocket and that included a Touchdown pass thrown to Devante Adams while in the grips of a Defender who was pulling Rodgers back. This Vikings Defense is very strong, but it will be tough to limit Rodgers who is being ably backed up by a fit Eddie Lacy at Running Back.

If Minnesota move men into coverage, Rodgers is happy to take the yards on the ground, while loading the box means he can throw to his Receivers who are good enough to make plays. The returning Jordy Nelson is a huge boost for Green Bay and I expect him to get stronger as the season goes on, while the likes of Adams and Randall Cobb will find more space now Nelson is back in the line up.

I am finding it difficult to imagine how Minnesota can not only keep Rodgers quiet, but also to score enough points to beat Green Bay. The spread can play mind games with us when you imagine it is two or three point short because the layers don’t often get things wrong, but I can’t see why you should ignore Rodgers and Green Bay trying to cover less than a Field Goal here.

Playing back to back road games is a tough task, while Minnesota have the excitement of opening a new Stadium. However teams are just 1-4 when doing that in recent seasons and I like the Packers in this one to show they are still the cream of the NFC North Division.

The Packers are 9-3 against the spread as the away favourite in Division games. Surprisingly they are not as effective as a small favourite of three points or fewer as you may imagine, but I think Green Bay cover this spread in the late Sunday night game.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Houston Texans Pick: Both Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs come into this regular season game with a 1-0 record, but I am trying to figure who was the more unimpressive. At this point of the season a win is a win, but both the Chiefs and Texans could easily be coming into this one at 0-1.

The Chiefs in particularly somehow came out with a win against the San Diego Chargers despite trailing 24-3 at one point in that game at home. While you have to give Kansas City credit for the fightback to win, I can’t help wondering that the Chargers threw away the victory and Kansas City will have to be a lot better in Week 2.

It will be much more difficult against the Houston Texans this time around who the Chiefs have beaten in the Play Offs in each of the last couple of seasons. The Chiefs did win here in the regular season last season too as well as in the Play Offs, but they are going to have a more difficult time establishing the run meaning more emphasis on Alex Smith making the plays.

Smith has played well with his short passes and check downs but he is going to have to scramble and make some plays with his legs in this one. That is because the Houston Texans will likely get plenty of pressure against an Offensive Line that has struggled at times even if JJ Watt remains limited.

The bigger reason that I do think the Texans will be able to get some revenge on the Chiefs is the improvement they have made to their team Offensively. There were some teething problems on that side of the ball against the under-rated Chicago Bears, which is understandable with some new players at the skilled positions.

However they got a little something going in the second half with Brock Osweiler settling in at Quarter Back and Lamar Miller running the ball effectively. Both players could have their success in this one, especially Osweiler who won’t have too much pressure from the Chiefs front seven who are missing Justin Houston.

Miller is a threat Receiving the ball out of the backfield, while the Texans have brought in Will Fuller in the Draft to give DeAndre Hopkins some help in the Receiving department. Braxton Miller is another player taken in the Draft to provide more weapons in the passing game to complement what Hopkins will give them, although it does have to be said that the Kansas City Secondary is pretty good.

However the lack of pressure up front means Osweiler should have time to make plays to a host of options he has in the Receiving department. That should give Houston the chance to move the chains fairly consistently in this game and much better than when they were shut out in the Play Offs by the Chiefs.

It also should mean the Texans can earn some revenge over Kansas City and I like them to cover what looks a number that should be at least a Field Goal rather than below that key number. The Texans are now 8-3 against the spread as the home favourite under Bill O'Brien and they are 4-1 against the spread when favoured by three points or fewer.

Under Andy Reid, Kansas City are 3-5 against the spread as the road underdog when facing a non-Division opponent and I think the Texans cover the number on Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: There was to be no revenge for the Super Bowl loss for the Carolina Panthers as they were downed by the Denver Broncos in Week 1. They have had a few extra days to get ready for Week 2 and I am expecting the Panthers to bounce back with a big victory on Sunday.

They are facing a San Franciso 49ers team that were dominating winners on Monday Night Football in Week 1, but there are some similarities with the 2015 season. The 49ers upset the Minnesota Vikings as the underdog in Week 1 on Monday Night Football last season and then travelled east for a road game where they were blasted out by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Panthers look a stronger team on both sides of the ball and they have had a little more time to prepare for the game. On the other hand San Francisco are on a short week, which is always difficult, and they will need a lot more out of their Offense to earn some success in this game.

One area that the Panthers will look to strengthen is the run Defense having allowed CJ Anderson to have too much success in Week 1. Carlos Hyde is a decent Back when you take away the concussion issues, but the Panthers might be more willing to load the box and look for Blaine Gabbert to beat them than they even were when it came to Trevor Siemian.

Gabbert did have a clean pocket when it comes to making plays last week, but I am not sure if that more to do with the Los Angeles Rams Defensive Line underachieving than the San Francisco Offensive Line being that good. Carolina should generate more pressure on Gabbert and I think the 49ers Offense will be bogged down more often than not.

It was the San Franciso Defense that impressed so much last week after looking to be heading into a transitioning year on that side of the ball. However Case Keenum is not Cam Newton and the Panthers have plenty of Offensive weapons that are going to give the 49ers lots to think about. Covering Devin Funchess, Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen is going to be tough, especially when you think Newton, Jonathan Stewart and Fozzie Whittaker should be able to establish the run against them.

Double digit favourites can be difficult to trust, but Carolina have destroyed four of the last five teams they have faced at home. All of those four wins have come by at least 28 points per game and the Panthers had a huge lead against Seattle in the exception before the Seahawks fought back. I think the 49ers speed will mean they are worn down on Offense as Carolina make some big defensive plays to cover the 13.5 points this week.


Tennessee Titans @ Detroit Lions Pick: It is funny how one week in the NFL can change the views about a team so significantly as the Detroit Lions win at Indianapolis Colts has done. Both teams are seen in a different light going into Week 2, although the answer is that they are both somewhere in the middle.

Playing a home opener should keep the Lions focused, but this is not a great spot for them when you think they are going on the road to the Green Bay Packers next weekend. However, I still think Detroit will be too good for the Tennessee Titans who struggled in Week 1 as they made too many mistakes against an Offensively weak Minnesota Vikings team.

It was the Offense who threw away the chance of winning that game and it began with the fact that Tennessee could not run the ball effectively against Minnesota. DeMarco Murray should have better success in this one after watching Frank Gore have success for the Indianapolis Colts against the Detroit Defensive Line last week.

Being able to establish the run is going to make life a little more comfortable for Marcos Mariota who would otherwise be under intense pressure from the likes of Ziggy Ansah who can get hits on the Quarter Back.

Mariota doesn't have the same skill players at the Wide Receiver position as Andrew Luck and the Colts but he should have some success against this Secondary that struggled last week. He still won't want this to develop into a shoot out with the Lions who looked very comfortable with Matt Stafford at Quarter Back last week.

Stafford didn't face a lot of pressure last week and was able to carve up the Colts all day- he should have the time to his his playmakers in this one too even if Tennessee are not as bad in the Secondary as Indianapolis. Giving Stafford time will make life easy for the Quarter Back who has players like Marvin Jones, Golden Tate and Eric Ebron who are able to make the big catches.

One thing Tennessee need to be given credit for last week is the way they shut down Adrian Peterson, but that might have been because they didn't respect Shaun Hill at Quarter Back. That isn't the case with Stafford behind Center and I can see Detroit establishing Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick as they did in the Week 1 win on the road.

The Titans have been an awful 4-11 against the spread as the road underdog the last couple of seasons although they have been much worse in Divisional games in that spot. They are off a loss they will feel they gave away and they are 4-10 against the spread when given between 3.5 and 9.5 points on the road the last couple of years.

Detroit are now 8-1-1 against the spread when coming off a win as the underdog and they are 8-2-1 against the spread as the home favourite under Jim Caldwell. That reads 6-1-1 against the spread when facing non-Division teams at home and I like the Lions to back up their Week 1 success with a win by a Touchdown in Week 2.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Teams in the AFC North don't like each other, but the Pittsburgh Steelers rivalry with the Cincinnati Bengals might be the one filled with most disdain these days. Anyone who saw their Play Off game against each other last year will have seen that while the Bengals have been blamed for targeting injuries to Ben Roethlisberger, Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown.

Both teams won in Week 1 and they are expected to battle for the AFC North title through the season, even more so than the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers are coming in off a short week having been part of the Monday Night Football doubleheader, but they are still seen as a healthy favourite to see off the Bengals at home who are playing back to back road games to open the 2016 season.

Bell is missing this game for the Steelers because of a suspension, but DeAngelo  Williams showed he is one of the best back ups in the League. He dominated against the Washington Redskins and would have been encouraged with the way Matt Forte was able to establish the run against the Bengals last week. Cincinnati are missing Vontaze Burfict to suspension for his actions in the Wild Card loss to the Steelers last year, but I still think the Bengals Defensive Line will be better this week.

I don't think Cincinnati will have much of an answer for Antonio Brown, but their best bet will be to get some pressure on Roethlisberger. Washington were able to do that for a while which led to an Interception and another fumble which was recovered by Pittsburgh, while the Steelers do have some question marks outside of Brown in the Receiving positions.

This might still develop into something of a shoot out and Andy Dalton showed last week he can make the big plays at the moments they are needed. Unlike against the Jets, Dalton should be helped by Jeremy Hill establishing something of a running threat in this one which will open up the passing lanes.

Like Pittsburgh, there is a significant drop off from AJ Green to the Number 2 Receiver in Cincinnati these days. Tyler Eifert is out, but Green should still win plenty of his battles outside and I can see him matching Brown for a big game. The Steelers did allow Kirk Cousins and the Redskins move the ball fairly consistently through the air even before they had a big lead to protect so it is not that difficult to see a situation where Dalton can do the same for the Bengals.

The Bengals are now 13-5-2 against the spread as the road underdog in recent seasons and they are 4-1 in this spot against Divisional opponents the last couple of seasons. Pittsburgh have been a good favourite to back at home in recent years, but I think getting the hook on the Bengals is hard to ignore in a game where a Field Goal win looks the most likely outcome.

MY PICKS: Green Bay Packer - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Caroline Panthers - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Detroit Lions - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 3.5 Points @ 1.87 William Hill (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)

New York Giants - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts + 6 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams + 7 Points @ 1.87 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (September 16-18)

My trip to Los Angeles and Las Vegas means I am putting up my picks from the weekend football from just the Premier League this week.

I have detailed breakdowns of five of the games, but I will add any other picks in the 'My Picks' section once the rest of the European games have been completed this week.


Chelsea v Liverpool Pick: Friday Night Football is a new feature of the Premier League and they can't have asked for many better games to open this round of fixtures when Chelsea take on Liverpool at Stamford Bridge. The start made by both teams suggests they are going to be challenging for Champions League spots at the very least this season and the fact this game is on a Friday during a Champions League week highlights why both Chelsea and Liverpool fans will feel this can be a big season for them.

Unlike their top four rivals, Chelsea and Liverpool won't have any European commitments this season and that means having a week to prepare for League games for the most part. They won't be able to take any advantage of that lack of European football this week, but it is something to keep in mind going forward into the busy months before Christmas.

Antonio Conte's run of wins as Chelsea manager did come to an end last week against Swansea City although they were unfortunate to only draw having dominated the first 60 minutes. However I have felt Chelsea have been a little fortunate to have had won three Premier League games and I do believe this is by far the biggest test Conte has faced in his short time in England.

They are facing a confident Liverpool side that would have taken 7 points if offered to them when looking at the four League games they have played. I do think Jurgen Klopp's side will be stronger when they play the better teams who won't sit back and offer no space to Liverpool and so I think this is the kind of game where the German manager will thrive the most.

I've pointed out the success Liverpool have had against teams that finished above them last season with Klopp at the helm. This is a team with enough quality to punish teams that will come onto them and the Liverpool record at Stamford Bridge can't be ignored either with 1 loss from 8 visits in all competitions.

Liverpool have avoided defeat in two visits to the capital already this season at top four clubs Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur and I do think they make it three in a row. A Chelsea win last weekend would have had them even shorter than they are, but backing Liverpool to avoid defeat still is a big enough price to tempt me in.


Hull City v Arsenal Pick: How impressive have Hull City been in their opening four League games? Far from the club that were supposed to be in disarray and go down with a record low points total, the Hull City players have pulled together and their character and determination has been clear to see.

While most clubs would not have enjoyed the two week international break for the gap in momentum, Hull City might have been happy to give their starting eleven a real rest. Some of those players were representing their country, notably standout performer Robert Snodgrass, but any rest Hull City get will be appreciated as they likely begin the same starting eleven for the fifth League game in a row.

At least Hull City will have had a week to prepare for this game unlike Arsenal who have been in Champions League action in Paris during the week. For a long time Arsenal were given the run around by Paris Saint-Germain and they should really have lost the game with the chances they gave up to the home team in that game.

However The Gunners did avoid defeat and that means the poor start that Arsenal made does seem to be forgotten and beating Southampton last week with a controversial penalty has moved The Gunners into a decent position in the Premier League. This is the kind of game that Hull City wouldn't really want to play with Arsenal capable of creating plenty of chances and scoring plenty of goals, while most of these players will remember the 0-4 home loss in the FA Cup a few months ago.

As hard as Hull City work defensively, Arsenal will pass, pass and pass the ball to tire them out and they have players like Mesut Ozil and Alexis Sanchez that can create and score goals. Arsenal have enjoyed recent visits to the KC Stadium and I think they can succeed where Manchester United failed and that is winning this game with at least a two goal margin between themselves and Hull City.


Manchester City v Bournemouth Pick: There isn't going to be much of a surprise to any team with the way Manchester City approach games, but stopping them is going to be a tough ask for most. I think that will especially be the case at The Etihad Stadium even if the best results Manchester City have put together in the early season games have come away from home.

The problem I see for Bournemouth in this game is that they like to play their football and that is only going to play into Manchester City's hands. Sergio Aguero being absent is a big blow for any team, but Manchester City will have their spaces in this one and they have plenty of goals in the side through Kevin De Bruyne and Nolito which should make them too strong for Bournemouth.

Aguero only scored 1 of the 9 goals Manchester City scored against Bournemouth in the 2015/16 season so even his absence might not prevent the home team from securing another comfortable win.

There are some defensive vulnerabilities that Bournemouth will look to exploit, but they won't have a big share of possession and I think Manchester City wear them down while putting up another three points on the board. I will be looking for the home team to make it three wins in a row against Bournemouth by at least two goals.


Everton v Middlesbrough Pick: Romelu Lukaku scored twice on international duty with Belgium and backed that up with all three goals in the Everton 0-3 win at Sunderland on Monday night. This is a player that hits goals in patches and Ronald Koeman will be very happy if his striker is about to go on a goal scoring run for Everton.

That would only aid a team that have made a very positive start to the new season and who have a run of very agreeable fixtures as far it looks on paper. Ronald Koeman has already begun to turn around the fortunes of Everton defensively compared with the Roberto Martinez era and they have enough attacking talent to score goals.

It is a work in progress, but Koeman has to be very happy with what he has seen although it is premature to suggest Everton are a top four candidate. They've made use of the fixtures they have had and Middlesbrough are coming into this fixture having lost their first Premier League game against Crystal Palace at home last weekend.

Aitor Karanka will make Middlesbrough difficult to beat, but a lack of goals might be a concern for them going forward. There has been some investment in the final third which could pay off if Middlesbrough can get those players settled, but this is going to be a difficult ground for any team to visit this season and I think Everton will be strong enough to break them down over ninety minutes.

It will be a battle, but I wouldn't be surprised if Lukaku gets on the scoreboard again and helps Everton earn another three points this weekend.


Crystal Palace v Stoke City Pick: There is much at stake for both Alan Pardew and Mark Hughes in this live Sunday football offering when Crystal Palace host Stoke City. Both teams are expected to be in the top half of the table considering the investment they have made this summer in the playing staff, but both have perhaps underachieved at the moment.

At least Crystal Palace have earned a win last weekend and I do think the performances of both teams will see an entertaining game. Usually you might not associate these clubs with entertainment, but both are much improved as attacking forces under their current managers and I think that will show up on Sunday.

Becoming more adventurous going forward has meant there are more spaces for teams to exploit against them and that has seen both Crystal Palace and Stoke City look a little weaker defensively.

There is some real attacking talent in both squads and I can see these teams combining to create chances and score goals. 8 of the last 12 fixtures between these clubs have produced at least three goals and that includes both League games last season.

With Christian Benteke and Wilfried Bony leading the line for both clubs and definitely capable of scoring goals from the service they will get, I will look for Crystal Palace and Stoke City to share out three goals in this one at odds against.

MY PICKS: Liverpool + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.04 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.84 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton @ 1.75 William Hill (2 Units)
Crystal Palace-Stoke City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)