I've had a number of matches narrowed down on my shortlist as far as the Tennis Picks have gone this past week, but a few question marks kept popping up around them which meant I have to made any selections since the end of the Australian Open.
On Saturday we have got down to the Semi Final stage at both events being played on the WTA Tour this week and I do feel there are three selections that can be made from the four matches scheduled to be played.
The new format of the Davis Cup means there were a lot of Singles matches scheduled for both Friday and Saturday, but nothing really stood out and I will stick to the Ranking events that are taking place.
I wrote a small piece which covered the end of the Australian Open. I've also updated the 2019 season records and you can read that here.
Alja Tomljanovic - 3.5 games v Tamara Zidansek: This is the third time Alja Tomljanovic and Tamara Zidansek have met over the last nine months and they have split two matches with one win apiece. The single hard court meeting took place in Seoul at the back end of the 2018 season and the Australian was able to recover from a set down to beat Zidansek in three sets.
Both players have been playing some decent tennis to get through to the Semi Final in Thailand this week although Zidansek has been having a few more difficulties coming through the draw.
Alja Tomljanovic and Zidansek have both been able to get a lot out of the return of serve which has given them a chance to win their matches. It is going to be the key to this match too as the player who can get close to the 50% return points won so far this week are most likely going to progress to the Final.
The feeling is that the Australian has the stronger serving numbers and Tomljanovic's first serve is going to give her a chance to at least get away with some cheap points compared with Zidansek.
As long as she can continue producing the big serves at key times Tomljanovic is likely going to be in a position where she has the majority of break points in this match and I will look for the higher Ranked player to work her way through this Semi Final with a win and a cover of the number.
Kiki Bertens v Aryna Sabalenka: This looks to be a fantastic Semi Final between two players who have been much improved on the hard courts over the last several months.
The two players have made their way through to the Semi Final with some decent numbers, but it is Kiki Bertens who looks to be playing the superior tennis.
She may be the only player who has dropped a set on the way through to the Semi Final, but Bertens has been perhaps a little unfortunate to do that. On the other hand Aryna Sabalenka should have dropped at least one set but she has managed to get her tennis together at just the right times to prevent opponents from picking up momentum against her.
The strength of her tennis can't be underestimated, but Bertens is also serving very well in St Petersburg and her game looks pretty suited to the indoor hard courts.
Kiki Bertens is getting more out of her serve in this tournament and she is also showing the superior returning of the two. The Dutchwoman has beaten Sabalenka in both previous meetings between them and I think Bertens can be backed as a very narrow underdog to do the same in this one.
Donna Vekic - 3.5 games v Vera Zvonareva: It is very good to see Vera Zvonareva back on the court and playing some strong tennis as she made her way through to the Semi Final in front of her home fans. Injuries have really blighted the latter stages of her career, but the Russian clearly still loves playing tennis and all three wins earned to reach the Semi Final have been impressive.
The veteran is back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and has dropped a single set to Julia Goerges on her way through the draw, but she is going to be challenged by Donna Vekic in this one.
The 22 year old Vekic has begun to show a little more consistency in her matches and this is a very good chance to reach the Final. A win over Australian Open Finalist Petra Kvitova in the Quarter Final was a very good result for Vekic and she has won six sets in a row since dropping the first one in St Petersburg.
Donna Vekic has been serving very well to get into a position to progress to the Semi Final and it has to be noted that Zvonareva's return has not been as strong as she would have liked. It has been enough to get through this draw so far, but the Vekic serve might be another challenge to what she has faced so far and I can see that putting pressure on the Russian to make sure she is producing her best off her own serve.
The indoor hard courts makes it much easier for servers though and Zvonareva has got a decent pop out of her own on this surface too. However Vekic has been getting enough out of her return to give Zvonareva something to think about and the Croatian has been creating enough break point chances against players this week to think she can do the same here.
Home fans will keep Zvonareva competitive, but Vekic may just have a little too much in each set they play and that could be enough to win and cover.
MY PICKS: Alja Tomljanovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
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Saturday, 2 February 2019
Monday, 28 January 2019
Tennis Picks 2019 (January 28th)
The first Grand Slam of the 2019 Tennis season entered the books on Sunday with Novak Djokovic joining Naomi Osaka as the Singles Champions at the Australian Open.
January winds down over the next few days but the Tour doesn't stop with Davis Cup Qualifiers set to be played next weekend and the WTA Tour moving on to stops in Thailand and Russia. There are some huge names out in both of those events which take place ahead of a break during which the focus will be on the run up to the opening Fed Cup matches.
With Davis Cup ties to come it does mean the ATP Tour has a week break but February is anything other than a quiet month with both the ATP and WTA taking in events in the Middle East as well as the South American Golden Swing.
Below are a few thoughts about the Australian Open and then I will get onto any Tennis Picks I have from the Monday schedule in both tournaments being played on the WTA Tour this week.
Novak Djokovic is the Man to Beat: The World Number 1 looked a little vulnerable in his tough win over Daniil Medvedev in the Fourth Round but by the end of the Australian Open Novak Djokovic was motoring along very nicely.
He has won his third Grand Slam in a row and it is hard to remember at what a low place he was after losing to Marco Cecchinato in the French Open last June. It was so bad for Djokovic back then after a couple of poor losses on the hard courts earlier in the season that he even suggested he would miss the grass court season and return to the Tour when he was feeling in a much stronger place.
Ultimately Djokovic gathered himself, won the title at Wimbledon and has looked by far and away the best player on the Tour since then while improving to fifteen career Grand Slam titles with his win on Sunday. Roger Federer's twenty titles are now within reach with Novak Djokovic likely going into every tournament as the favourite to win it and if he stays healthy I do think there is every chance he is going to be the standard setter for men's tennis when he does decide to hang up his racquet.
The French Open may be the biggest challenge, but the manner of his win over Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open coupled with a victory already secured over Nadal at Roland Garros means the World Number 1 is the man to beat in the season ahead.
Take nothing away from Rafael Nadal who had a great tournament and should be much more match ready by the time the French Open comes around, but Novak Djokovic is returning to his level of three years ago when he was dismantling all in front of him.
When Will the ATP Youngsters be Ready to Win a Grand Slam: Stefanos Tsitsipas took the headlines with a strong run at the Australian Open that ended in the Semi Final, but the defeat to Rafael Nadal underlined how much work is in front of him.
The Greek star may have taken the step on the likes of Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev, but all of those players look like they could have an impact in the year ahead, although I am not sure any of them are truly ready to win a Grand Slam.
Both Khachanov and Medvedev should be able to take the next step once they find a touch more consistency in their game, while Alexander Zverev is in danger of entering Grand Slam draws with a millstone around his neck. It was another disappointing Grand Slam effort from the 21 year old German who has played so well at Masters level and won the ATP World Tour Finals in London in November that suggested he was ready to take the next step at a major.
For me Zverev is still the closest to putting it all together to win a Grand Slam, but I do think he is at least a year away from doing that with the way Nadal and Djokovic are playing.
The Top of the Women's Game is in a Healthy Spot: Over the last twelve months I would have to say that the women's Grand Slam events have perhaps been more exciting than the men's and the top of the WTA Tour looks to be in a healthier spot in years.
Naomi Osaka has broken through as a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and taken over as World Number 1 after a stunning Australian Open, while Petra Kvitova played close to her best tennis. Those two could be in for a real rivalry at both Wimbledon and the US Open to determine the big prizes, but the likes of Simona Halep, Serena Williams, Karolina Pliskova may not be too far behind.
Others can still have strong tournaments in the relatively short periods of a Grand Slam, but I think those five players will be the ones who show the most consistency in 2019 across the surfaces and I would be surprised if the Grand Slam titles are not shared between them.
In recent years too many times the women's game looked to have little consistency at the top which saw players reach World Number 1 without winning Slams, but so many have broken through the mental barrier that I think it can only be good for the sport.
Serena Williams is no Sure Thing to Win Grand Slam Number 24: When Serena Williams won the Australian Open in 2016 it would have been incredibly short odds for her to not only tie Margaret Court's record number of Grand Slam Singles titles won, but for the American to surpass that number.
Pregnancy meant over a year away from the Tour following that success and Serena Williams has reached two Finals and one Quarter Final in her four Grand Slam tournaments played on her return.
In her time away some of the top WTA players have grown and the Serena aura is no longer as strong as it once was with the likes of Simona Halep coming close to beating her here in Australia and Karolina Pliskova getting the job done. Naomi Osaka playing her first Grand Slam Final handled the occasion and all of the drama of the US Open Final fabulously to beat Williams and Angelique Kerber did the same in the Wimbledon Final.
Players are no longer fearing the presence of Serena who is also not helped by a lowly Ranking, by her standards, which means tougher draws to negotiate.
I'm not ruling Serena out from winning another Grand Slam or two, but I do think things have gotten much tougher for her with the improvement in the women's game. While she will likely be the bookmakers favourite to win any tournament she enters in 2019, I think the odds of her even tying Margaret Court's twenty-four Slams is much longer than it has been for a long time.
Andy Murray's Fight to Return to the Tour: If I am being critical I am not sure Andy Murray timed his decision to announce he may retire from tennis just days before the Australian Open began as well as he would have liked. He certainly will wish he could re-word his Press Conference after it was subsequently made clear that the British player was still exploring all avenues to return to the Tour.
An awkward goodbye and good luck video from his peers was played at the end of his titanic First Round defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut, but it is clear we have yet to see the last of him.
I only have respect for everything Murray has achieved in his career up to now and I do think 2019 might be written off by him as he decides to go back in for a second surgery on his hip which may give him a chance to return to the Tour. There are no guarantees in life, but I do think Andy Murray himself believes that match in Melbourne is not the last one he has played as a professional.
The announcement he was thinking about finishing up at Wimbledon in July has to be scrapped- going in for surgery will mean the rest of this season is likely over for Murray and he can then look to make a return in 2020.
The decision on the surgery has yet to be made, but the fighting spirit is still burning bright within Andy Murray and I hope he can end his career in the manner he wants and not enforced to do.
January winds down over the next few days but the Tour doesn't stop with Davis Cup Qualifiers set to be played next weekend and the WTA Tour moving on to stops in Thailand and Russia. There are some huge names out in both of those events which take place ahead of a break during which the focus will be on the run up to the opening Fed Cup matches.
With Davis Cup ties to come it does mean the ATP Tour has a week break but February is anything other than a quiet month with both the ATP and WTA taking in events in the Middle East as well as the South American Golden Swing.
Below are a few thoughts about the Australian Open and then I will get onto any Tennis Picks I have from the Monday schedule in both tournaments being played on the WTA Tour this week.
Novak Djokovic is the Man to Beat: The World Number 1 looked a little vulnerable in his tough win over Daniil Medvedev in the Fourth Round but by the end of the Australian Open Novak Djokovic was motoring along very nicely.
He has won his third Grand Slam in a row and it is hard to remember at what a low place he was after losing to Marco Cecchinato in the French Open last June. It was so bad for Djokovic back then after a couple of poor losses on the hard courts earlier in the season that he even suggested he would miss the grass court season and return to the Tour when he was feeling in a much stronger place.
Ultimately Djokovic gathered himself, won the title at Wimbledon and has looked by far and away the best player on the Tour since then while improving to fifteen career Grand Slam titles with his win on Sunday. Roger Federer's twenty titles are now within reach with Novak Djokovic likely going into every tournament as the favourite to win it and if he stays healthy I do think there is every chance he is going to be the standard setter for men's tennis when he does decide to hang up his racquet.
The French Open may be the biggest challenge, but the manner of his win over Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open coupled with a victory already secured over Nadal at Roland Garros means the World Number 1 is the man to beat in the season ahead.
Take nothing away from Rafael Nadal who had a great tournament and should be much more match ready by the time the French Open comes around, but Novak Djokovic is returning to his level of three years ago when he was dismantling all in front of him.
When Will the ATP Youngsters be Ready to Win a Grand Slam: Stefanos Tsitsipas took the headlines with a strong run at the Australian Open that ended in the Semi Final, but the defeat to Rafael Nadal underlined how much work is in front of him.
The Greek star may have taken the step on the likes of Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev, but all of those players look like they could have an impact in the year ahead, although I am not sure any of them are truly ready to win a Grand Slam.
Both Khachanov and Medvedev should be able to take the next step once they find a touch more consistency in their game, while Alexander Zverev is in danger of entering Grand Slam draws with a millstone around his neck. It was another disappointing Grand Slam effort from the 21 year old German who has played so well at Masters level and won the ATP World Tour Finals in London in November that suggested he was ready to take the next step at a major.
For me Zverev is still the closest to putting it all together to win a Grand Slam, but I do think he is at least a year away from doing that with the way Nadal and Djokovic are playing.
The Top of the Women's Game is in a Healthy Spot: Over the last twelve months I would have to say that the women's Grand Slam events have perhaps been more exciting than the men's and the top of the WTA Tour looks to be in a healthier spot in years.
Naomi Osaka has broken through as a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and taken over as World Number 1 after a stunning Australian Open, while Petra Kvitova played close to her best tennis. Those two could be in for a real rivalry at both Wimbledon and the US Open to determine the big prizes, but the likes of Simona Halep, Serena Williams, Karolina Pliskova may not be too far behind.
Others can still have strong tournaments in the relatively short periods of a Grand Slam, but I think those five players will be the ones who show the most consistency in 2019 across the surfaces and I would be surprised if the Grand Slam titles are not shared between them.
In recent years too many times the women's game looked to have little consistency at the top which saw players reach World Number 1 without winning Slams, but so many have broken through the mental barrier that I think it can only be good for the sport.
Serena Williams is no Sure Thing to Win Grand Slam Number 24: When Serena Williams won the Australian Open in 2016 it would have been incredibly short odds for her to not only tie Margaret Court's record number of Grand Slam Singles titles won, but for the American to surpass that number.
Pregnancy meant over a year away from the Tour following that success and Serena Williams has reached two Finals and one Quarter Final in her four Grand Slam tournaments played on her return.
In her time away some of the top WTA players have grown and the Serena aura is no longer as strong as it once was with the likes of Simona Halep coming close to beating her here in Australia and Karolina Pliskova getting the job done. Naomi Osaka playing her first Grand Slam Final handled the occasion and all of the drama of the US Open Final fabulously to beat Williams and Angelique Kerber did the same in the Wimbledon Final.
Players are no longer fearing the presence of Serena who is also not helped by a lowly Ranking, by her standards, which means tougher draws to negotiate.
I'm not ruling Serena out from winning another Grand Slam or two, but I do think things have gotten much tougher for her with the improvement in the women's game. While she will likely be the bookmakers favourite to win any tournament she enters in 2019, I think the odds of her even tying Margaret Court's twenty-four Slams is much longer than it has been for a long time.
Andy Murray's Fight to Return to the Tour: If I am being critical I am not sure Andy Murray timed his decision to announce he may retire from tennis just days before the Australian Open began as well as he would have liked. He certainly will wish he could re-word his Press Conference after it was subsequently made clear that the British player was still exploring all avenues to return to the Tour.
An awkward goodbye and good luck video from his peers was played at the end of his titanic First Round defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut, but it is clear we have yet to see the last of him.
I only have respect for everything Murray has achieved in his career up to now and I do think 2019 might be written off by him as he decides to go back in for a second surgery on his hip which may give him a chance to return to the Tour. There are no guarantees in life, but I do think Andy Murray himself believes that match in Melbourne is not the last one he has played as a professional.
The announcement he was thinking about finishing up at Wimbledon in July has to be scrapped- going in for surgery will mean the rest of this season is likely over for Murray and he can then look to make a return in 2020.
The decision on the surgery has yet to be made, but the fighting spirit is still burning bright within Andy Murray and I hope he can end his career in the manner he wants and not enforced to do.
Tennis Picks 2019
The Australian Open added to a very good start for the Tennis Picks in 2019 with plenty of profits to add to the first month of the season.
Twelve months ago it was a difficult tournament, but the last six months of the Tennis Picks in 2018 ensured that season finished with a profit and 2019 has begun in a very promising way.
This week the WTA Tour moves to Hua Hin in Thailand and St Petersburg in Russia. At the end of the week the Davis Cup Finals Qualifying ties are played over Friday and Saturday with the new format of that competition set to go for the 2019 season and I should have some Picks for most of the days this week.
Next week the ATP Tour returns with three stops on the calendar as we get to see some indoor tennis and also the start of the Golden Swing in South America.
MY PICKS:
Season 2019: + 26.16 Units (213 Units Staked, + 12.28% Yield)
MY PICKS:
Season 2019: + 26.16 Units (213 Units Staked, + 12.28% Yield)
Wednesday, 19 September 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (September 19th)
It wasn't an ideal start to the Tennis Picks this week but I have to admit I was a little frustrated with a couple of the Picks made on Tuesday.
Victoria Azarenka and Ashleigh Barty both had enough chances to cover in their matches, but they waited too long to make their move although I don't think either will care as they are through to the next Round which is the only aim for the player.
On another day I would have had both return as a winner, but thankfully Daniil Medvedev prevented it being a complete rubbish of a day by beating Joao Sousa comfortably enough in their match in St Petersburg later in the day.
Wednesday looks to be a busier day all around and that means I have a number of Tennis Picks which cover three tournaments. I will add a couple from ATP Metz once the market has been formulated and those will be added to this thread.
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: There is something of a revenge mission for Karolina Pliskova to take part in in this Second Round match as she faces Daria Gavrilova. The latter beat Karolina's twin sister in the First Round in Tokyo, but Gavrilova has struggled when she has faced the big hitting and more consistent Karolina Pliskova in the past.
The Gavrilova win over Kristyna Pliskova came in a very close match and it might have given her a real idea of what kind of power she is facing in this match. However she is going to have to dig deep in this one too even if Karolina Pliskova has not been in the best of form in the second half of the season.
Even the Pliskova numbers have taken a big hit in that down turn in form but she was looking like she could get back towards her best tennis at the US Open. The defeat to Serena Williams will have hurt, but Pliskova should be very good in the conditions in Tokyo as long as she has the serve working like it can.
No one will doubt this is a very big number for Pliskova to cover considering the recent form she has been in. However I do think the big serve is going to allow Pliskova to tee off on the Gavrilova serve and put all the pressure on the Australian who has been dominated by this Pliskova sister in the past.
Motivation of getting one back for her sister should also inspire Pliskova and I think she is capable of winning this match and covering the number against the weaker Gavrilova serve.
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: It has been a tough road back from injury for Stan Wawrinka but there are signs that he is making a positive progress. He will be looking for a strong end to 2018 which can help Wawrinka improve his World Ranking to a point he can get back to entering the big tournaments directly rather than with a Wild Card.
At the moment Wawrinka is up to 88 in the World Rankings and he has no points to defend in the last couple of months so will be looking to get back inside the top 50 before the Australian Open begins in January. His win over Aljaz Bedene was a good one in the First Round, but Wawrinka faces a much tougher opponent in the Second Round.
Karen Khachanov had a stunning match with Rafael Nadal at the US Open and he has all the intangibles which suggests he could be a future Grand Slam winner. The Russian has already won a title on the indoor hard courts in 2018 and the home fans should be firmly behind him when he gets his St Petersburg tournament underway.
The numbers Khachanov has produced on the hard courts have been superior to the ones that Wawrinka has been able to come up with and I think that will be a difference maker in this match. As much as Wawrinka has shown some improvement over the last couple of months since the move to the North American hard courts, he is still having some troubles with the return of serve and I don't think that will be helped by a big server like Khachanov.
The Russian has an edge when it comes to the percentage of service games held as well as the percentage of points won behind serve. Khachanov has also produced the better return numbers on this surface as he is breaking 22% of the time compared with Wawrinka down at 16% and that is a significant difference in what looks a close match on the face of things.
Both players were only stopped by some of the biggest names on the Tour in their last few hard court tournaments which means both Khachanov and Wawrinka should play with some real confidence. The latter does have a win here in St Petersburg under his belt so could be more familiar with the conditions at play, but Khachanov should receive plenty of support and I think he will edge out Wawrinka and do enough to cover this number.
Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Quentin Halys: You can't always tell what you're going to get with Benoit Paire, but he should be well supported by the fans in Metz after a stunning display for France in the Davis Cup. His crushing win over Pablo Carreno Busta helped France win one rubber in their 3-2 win over Spain in the Davis Cup Semi Final this past weekend and that should mean Paire is playing with some real confidence.
His opponent is compatriot Quentin Halys who is also going to be riding some confidence into this tournament. Last week Halys reached the Final of a Challenger event in Istanbul but this is a big step up for a player that has not been used to playing main ATP Tour matches throughout his career.
Halys might not have had many hard court matches on the main ATP Tour as he is 1-3 in that situation in 2018. However the Frenchman has shown improvement in his return game while keeping himself steady behind serve and that makes him pretty dangerous in this one.
As well as Paire played at the US Open in a tight loss to Roger Federer and keeping in mind the strong win in the Davis Cup this past Friday it does have to be said that Paire has produced declining numbers in hard court matches in recent years. The serve has particularly been vulnerable which may give Halys a chance for the upset, although it will mean the lower Ranked Frenchman has found a way to get more out of his return game.
Paire's successes on the hard courts have come thanks to a stronger return game than in previous years which has made up for some of the decline in the service numbers. I do think that will make Paire vulnerable the deeper he goes into the hard court tournaments and the better players he comes up against, but in this one I think he rides the momentum of the weekend and can get the better of an opponent who may be more fatigued.
There is no doubt that Paire is a hard player to trust, but I will back him to get the better of Halys in this one with a couple of key breaks of serve helping him cover the number.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: At the start of 2018 there were a number of big name players on the men's Tour who were returning from long-term injuries and one of those was Kei Nishikori. It is perhaps not a big surprise that Nishikori has been as inconsistent as he has for much of the season with that in mind, but he remains a solid hard court player.
I think he can get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in this Second Round match in Metz because there are some doubts about the German which won't have been erased by beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the First Round. Tsonga has missed much of 2018 with an injury and was making his first appearance on a tennis court in a competitive match in months and so I won't read too much into the Gojowczyk win.
There have been some injury concerns Gojowczyk has been dealing with himself and being anything less than 100% for this match would make it that much tougher.
To be fair to the German he has played well on the hard courts in 2018 with a strong hold percentage, although there is room to improve when it comes to the return of serve. That is an area that Nishikori will want to improve too going into 2019, but the Japanese player has been more effective than Gojowczyk and I do think that can make the difference in this match.
It also has to be pointed out that Gojowczyk's numbers on the hard courts have taken a considerable dent over the last couple of months as he has struggled with some kind of fitness issue. His hold and break percentages have both dropped in that period and I think Nishikori is good enough to find a way to break him at least once in the first two sets which may help him overcome the number set by the layers.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Constant Lestienne: On an indoor hard court this will always feel like a big number no matter which two players are competing on the main ATP Tour simply because of the toughness of breaking an opponent on the surface. That is probably the biggest issue for Richard Gasquet when he takes on his compatriot Constant Lestienne who is making his first appearance in a main ATP tournament this week.
Lestienne didn't have that spot handed to him as he came through a couple of Qualifers and then beat Jurgen Zopp in the First Round. There is little doubt that he will pose a threat having won more hard court matches this season than Richard Gasquet has played, although you have to also accept the vast majority of those have been played at a lower level than what he is facing here in Metz.
The numbers have been impressive from Lestienne on both serve and return on the hard courts and you can't dismiss what confidence can do to a player. With all the wins behind him, Lestienne will feel very good about his game as long as he is not mentally overwhelmed with playing one of the best players from his home nation.
I expect the Qualifier to know a lot more about Gasquet than the other way around, but Lestienne's numbers have taken a hit whenever he has faced top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface. Lestienne did beat Marcos Baghdatis earlier in 2018, but his hold and break percentage have dropped markedly when facing the top 100 Ranked opponents both in 2018 and his career in general.
Richard Gasquet has not been at his best on the hard courts over the course of 2018 but he did reach the Third Round at the US Open and beat a couple of opponents who are stronger than the one he will see here. Gasquet is also a strong indoor hard court player, especially when he plays in France, and his overall numbers are that much stronger than Lestienne's that I think he can be backed to cover the number.
It may only take a couple of breaks of serve to do that, but I expect Gasquet to put Lestienne under pressure to at least get another one on top of that. With that in mind I will back Gasquet to cover what I consider to be a big indoor hard court number on the ATP circuit, but at odds against I do think that is worth chancing.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.18 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Victoria Azarenka and Ashleigh Barty both had enough chances to cover in their matches, but they waited too long to make their move although I don't think either will care as they are through to the next Round which is the only aim for the player.
On another day I would have had both return as a winner, but thankfully Daniil Medvedev prevented it being a complete rubbish of a day by beating Joao Sousa comfortably enough in their match in St Petersburg later in the day.
Wednesday looks to be a busier day all around and that means I have a number of Tennis Picks which cover three tournaments. I will add a couple from ATP Metz once the market has been formulated and those will be added to this thread.
Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: There is something of a revenge mission for Karolina Pliskova to take part in in this Second Round match as she faces Daria Gavrilova. The latter beat Karolina's twin sister in the First Round in Tokyo, but Gavrilova has struggled when she has faced the big hitting and more consistent Karolina Pliskova in the past.
The Gavrilova win over Kristyna Pliskova came in a very close match and it might have given her a real idea of what kind of power she is facing in this match. However she is going to have to dig deep in this one too even if Karolina Pliskova has not been in the best of form in the second half of the season.
Even the Pliskova numbers have taken a big hit in that down turn in form but she was looking like she could get back towards her best tennis at the US Open. The defeat to Serena Williams will have hurt, but Pliskova should be very good in the conditions in Tokyo as long as she has the serve working like it can.
No one will doubt this is a very big number for Pliskova to cover considering the recent form she has been in. However I do think the big serve is going to allow Pliskova to tee off on the Gavrilova serve and put all the pressure on the Australian who has been dominated by this Pliskova sister in the past.
Motivation of getting one back for her sister should also inspire Pliskova and I think she is capable of winning this match and covering the number against the weaker Gavrilova serve.
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: It has been a tough road back from injury for Stan Wawrinka but there are signs that he is making a positive progress. He will be looking for a strong end to 2018 which can help Wawrinka improve his World Ranking to a point he can get back to entering the big tournaments directly rather than with a Wild Card.
At the moment Wawrinka is up to 88 in the World Rankings and he has no points to defend in the last couple of months so will be looking to get back inside the top 50 before the Australian Open begins in January. His win over Aljaz Bedene was a good one in the First Round, but Wawrinka faces a much tougher opponent in the Second Round.
Karen Khachanov had a stunning match with Rafael Nadal at the US Open and he has all the intangibles which suggests he could be a future Grand Slam winner. The Russian has already won a title on the indoor hard courts in 2018 and the home fans should be firmly behind him when he gets his St Petersburg tournament underway.
The numbers Khachanov has produced on the hard courts have been superior to the ones that Wawrinka has been able to come up with and I think that will be a difference maker in this match. As much as Wawrinka has shown some improvement over the last couple of months since the move to the North American hard courts, he is still having some troubles with the return of serve and I don't think that will be helped by a big server like Khachanov.
The Russian has an edge when it comes to the percentage of service games held as well as the percentage of points won behind serve. Khachanov has also produced the better return numbers on this surface as he is breaking 22% of the time compared with Wawrinka down at 16% and that is a significant difference in what looks a close match on the face of things.
Both players were only stopped by some of the biggest names on the Tour in their last few hard court tournaments which means both Khachanov and Wawrinka should play with some real confidence. The latter does have a win here in St Petersburg under his belt so could be more familiar with the conditions at play, but Khachanov should receive plenty of support and I think he will edge out Wawrinka and do enough to cover this number.
Benoit Paire - 3.5 games v Quentin Halys: You can't always tell what you're going to get with Benoit Paire, but he should be well supported by the fans in Metz after a stunning display for France in the Davis Cup. His crushing win over Pablo Carreno Busta helped France win one rubber in their 3-2 win over Spain in the Davis Cup Semi Final this past weekend and that should mean Paire is playing with some real confidence.
His opponent is compatriot Quentin Halys who is also going to be riding some confidence into this tournament. Last week Halys reached the Final of a Challenger event in Istanbul but this is a big step up for a player that has not been used to playing main ATP Tour matches throughout his career.
Halys might not have had many hard court matches on the main ATP Tour as he is 1-3 in that situation in 2018. However the Frenchman has shown improvement in his return game while keeping himself steady behind serve and that makes him pretty dangerous in this one.
As well as Paire played at the US Open in a tight loss to Roger Federer and keeping in mind the strong win in the Davis Cup this past Friday it does have to be said that Paire has produced declining numbers in hard court matches in recent years. The serve has particularly been vulnerable which may give Halys a chance for the upset, although it will mean the lower Ranked Frenchman has found a way to get more out of his return game.
Paire's successes on the hard courts have come thanks to a stronger return game than in previous years which has made up for some of the decline in the service numbers. I do think that will make Paire vulnerable the deeper he goes into the hard court tournaments and the better players he comes up against, but in this one I think he rides the momentum of the weekend and can get the better of an opponent who may be more fatigued.
There is no doubt that Paire is a hard player to trust, but I will back him to get the better of Halys in this one with a couple of key breaks of serve helping him cover the number.
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 games v Peter Gojowczyk: At the start of 2018 there were a number of big name players on the men's Tour who were returning from long-term injuries and one of those was Kei Nishikori. It is perhaps not a big surprise that Nishikori has been as inconsistent as he has for much of the season with that in mind, but he remains a solid hard court player.
I think he can get the better of Peter Gojowczyk in this Second Round match in Metz because there are some doubts about the German which won't have been erased by beating Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the First Round. Tsonga has missed much of 2018 with an injury and was making his first appearance on a tennis court in a competitive match in months and so I won't read too much into the Gojowczyk win.
There have been some injury concerns Gojowczyk has been dealing with himself and being anything less than 100% for this match would make it that much tougher.
To be fair to the German he has played well on the hard courts in 2018 with a strong hold percentage, although there is room to improve when it comes to the return of serve. That is an area that Nishikori will want to improve too going into 2019, but the Japanese player has been more effective than Gojowczyk and I do think that can make the difference in this match.
It also has to be pointed out that Gojowczyk's numbers on the hard courts have taken a considerable dent over the last couple of months as he has struggled with some kind of fitness issue. His hold and break percentages have both dropped in that period and I think Nishikori is good enough to find a way to break him at least once in the first two sets which may help him overcome the number set by the layers.
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 games v Constant Lestienne: On an indoor hard court this will always feel like a big number no matter which two players are competing on the main ATP Tour simply because of the toughness of breaking an opponent on the surface. That is probably the biggest issue for Richard Gasquet when he takes on his compatriot Constant Lestienne who is making his first appearance in a main ATP tournament this week.
Lestienne didn't have that spot handed to him as he came through a couple of Qualifers and then beat Jurgen Zopp in the First Round. There is little doubt that he will pose a threat having won more hard court matches this season than Richard Gasquet has played, although you have to also accept the vast majority of those have been played at a lower level than what he is facing here in Metz.
The numbers have been impressive from Lestienne on both serve and return on the hard courts and you can't dismiss what confidence can do to a player. With all the wins behind him, Lestienne will feel very good about his game as long as he is not mentally overwhelmed with playing one of the best players from his home nation.
I expect the Qualifier to know a lot more about Gasquet than the other way around, but Lestienne's numbers have taken a hit whenever he has faced top 100 Ranked opponents on this surface. Lestienne did beat Marcos Baghdatis earlier in 2018, but his hold and break percentage have dropped markedly when facing the top 100 Ranked opponents both in 2018 and his career in general.
Richard Gasquet has not been at his best on the hard courts over the course of 2018 but he did reach the Third Round at the US Open and beat a couple of opponents who are stronger than the one he will see here. Gasquet is also a strong indoor hard court player, especially when he plays in France, and his overall numbers are that much stronger than Lestienne's that I think he can be backed to cover the number.
It may only take a couple of breaks of serve to do that, but I expect Gasquet to put Lestienne under pressure to at least get another one on top of that. With that in mind I will back Gasquet to cover what I consider to be a big indoor hard court number on the ATP circuit, but at odds against I do think that is worth chancing.
MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Benoit Paire - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Richard Gasquet - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-2, - 2.18 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Tuesday, 18 September 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (September 18th)
The 2018 Tennis season is in the final stretch with just two months left before the ATP World Tour Finals come to an end, but there is still plenty of tournaments to get through before we get to that point.
The final Grand Slam of the season may be in the books with the Serena Williams meltdown in the Women's Final still very much in the headlines, but players still have things to achieve to finish off the 2018 season. Improving the World Rankings ahead of the 2019 season is important as that would mean better potential Seeding at the Australian Open which begins just three weeks into the new season, while others are bidding to earn their spot in the WTA Finals and ATP World Tour Finals which round out the 2018 season.
We may have got through the majority of the biggest tournaments in 2018, but that does not mean the Tennis Picks are ready to call it a day for the season. I had a good showing at the US Open to keep the season in a positive position, but there is still work to do to make sure the 2018 season is a good one and keep the momentum to take into the 2019 season.
This week the tournaments are being played across Asia through to Europe and that means there are some vast differences in the times of the matches to be played. The WTA Tour is in Asia and the ATP Tour has a couple of stops in Europe with the two ATP events being played on indoor hard courts.
What that also means for the Tennis Picks this week is that I may stagger adding them to the daily threads I create. On some occasions I will need to add the ATP Picks after the WTA Picks simply because the markets won't be ready at the same time, but that is just something to consider as I look for a positive start to this week's tournaments.
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Coco Vandeweghe: On first glance this is a very big spread for Ashleigh Barty to cover against a big serving American like Coco Vandeweghe.
However that is not taking into consideration the fact that Vandeweghe has been struggling with an injury and has had a poor season on the hard courts in 2018. That has not been the case for Barty who has been in great form over the last couple of months and who has shown she is capable of dominating in matches she should be.
Ultimately Barty's progress in tournaments have tended to be halted by those players Ranked higher than her but the numbers have remained pretty good throughout 2018.
It will be a big test of the return game for Barty when facing the Vandeweghe serve, but I am not convinced the latter is at full speed at the moment. The American has taken some fairly comfortable losses on the hard courts and I think Barty will get into enough service games to put Vandeweghe under some real pressure.
The Barty serve can be vulnerable, but Vandeweghe can have problems on the return game and that will be true if Barty can get enough first serves into play. While I acknowledge this is a big number, I think Barty is capable of finding the breaks of serve to do that.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Kurumi Nara: The second pick from the WTA Tokyo tournament that I am backing is Victoria Azarenka to beat Kurumi Nara and cover what is a big number too.
Nara has not had the best numbers on the hard courts and she has a serve which is likely to be attacked by Azarenka throughout. The key to the cover is clearly the Azarenka serve and whether she is going to be able to get enough first serves in play to at least protect herself against a decent returner in Nara who will have the home fans behind her.
The Azarenka numbers on the hard courts in 2018 are considerably below where she was in 2016 before off court injuries and a pregnancy, but those 2018 numbers are still decent enough to earn some respect.
You can see that Azarenka is not that far away from really putting some consistent runs together and I think the back end of 2018 is important for the former World Number 1 to build her confidence. This is the kind of match that should allow Azarenka to build up her rhythm and I think she is going to be good enough to break down the Nara game, although there will be some early swings in momentum.
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games v Lukas Lacko: There is little doubt that Marcos Baghdatis has seen his best days on a tennis court, but he remains keen on competing and I do think he can win this First Round match in St Petersburg.
There are signs Baghdatis has slipped a little more in 2018, but his break numbers on the hard courts have been decent and I think that makes the difference in this match.
Lukas Lacko is talented, but he has struggled to take his performances to the main ATP level and his return game has been a real problem for him. That isn't helped by the fact that his own serve is one that can be attacked and I think Baghdatis will be the player who has the majority of break point chances during the course of the match.
Of course he does need to take those chances if he is going to make this a more comfortable day in the office than it may otherwise be. Lacko is someone you don't really want to leave to hang around because he is capable of putting together some solid points at pressurised moments.
However his numbers are some way below what Baghdatis has been able to produce on the hard courts in 2018 and I will back the veteran to move through to the Second Round.
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Joao Sousa: Don't underestimate Joao Sousa who has won an ATP title on the indoor hard courts and who also has played better than his results may suggest on this surface in 2018.
His run at the US Open shows what Sousa is capable of when he gets on a run and he is always involved in close matches that could easily have gone his way with a little more luck.
Even with that in mind, I am going to oppose him with Daniil Medvedev who has been in good form over the last couple of months and looks capable of producing a strong end to 2018. Medvedev is comfortable on the hard courts and his numbers have improved in 2018 compared with 2017 as the youngster continues his positive development on the Tour.
Both players should feel pretty good behind their serve, but Medvedev has the slightly better return game and I think that will make the difference in a close match. The home support will aid Medvedev a bit more and I think he will be able to edge out Sousa in three sets.
MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Season 2018 Update: + 31.74 Units (1467 Units Staked, + 2.16% Yield)
The final Grand Slam of the season may be in the books with the Serena Williams meltdown in the Women's Final still very much in the headlines, but players still have things to achieve to finish off the 2018 season. Improving the World Rankings ahead of the 2019 season is important as that would mean better potential Seeding at the Australian Open which begins just three weeks into the new season, while others are bidding to earn their spot in the WTA Finals and ATP World Tour Finals which round out the 2018 season.
We may have got through the majority of the biggest tournaments in 2018, but that does not mean the Tennis Picks are ready to call it a day for the season. I had a good showing at the US Open to keep the season in a positive position, but there is still work to do to make sure the 2018 season is a good one and keep the momentum to take into the 2019 season.
This week the tournaments are being played across Asia through to Europe and that means there are some vast differences in the times of the matches to be played. The WTA Tour is in Asia and the ATP Tour has a couple of stops in Europe with the two ATP events being played on indoor hard courts.
What that also means for the Tennis Picks this week is that I may stagger adding them to the daily threads I create. On some occasions I will need to add the ATP Picks after the WTA Picks simply because the markets won't be ready at the same time, but that is just something to consider as I look for a positive start to this week's tournaments.
Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Coco Vandeweghe: On first glance this is a very big spread for Ashleigh Barty to cover against a big serving American like Coco Vandeweghe.
However that is not taking into consideration the fact that Vandeweghe has been struggling with an injury and has had a poor season on the hard courts in 2018. That has not been the case for Barty who has been in great form over the last couple of months and who has shown she is capable of dominating in matches she should be.
Ultimately Barty's progress in tournaments have tended to be halted by those players Ranked higher than her but the numbers have remained pretty good throughout 2018.
It will be a big test of the return game for Barty when facing the Vandeweghe serve, but I am not convinced the latter is at full speed at the moment. The American has taken some fairly comfortable losses on the hard courts and I think Barty will get into enough service games to put Vandeweghe under some real pressure.
The Barty serve can be vulnerable, but Vandeweghe can have problems on the return game and that will be true if Barty can get enough first serves into play. While I acknowledge this is a big number, I think Barty is capable of finding the breaks of serve to do that.
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 games v Kurumi Nara: The second pick from the WTA Tokyo tournament that I am backing is Victoria Azarenka to beat Kurumi Nara and cover what is a big number too.
Nara has not had the best numbers on the hard courts and she has a serve which is likely to be attacked by Azarenka throughout. The key to the cover is clearly the Azarenka serve and whether she is going to be able to get enough first serves in play to at least protect herself against a decent returner in Nara who will have the home fans behind her.
The Azarenka numbers on the hard courts in 2018 are considerably below where she was in 2016 before off court injuries and a pregnancy, but those 2018 numbers are still decent enough to earn some respect.
You can see that Azarenka is not that far away from really putting some consistent runs together and I think the back end of 2018 is important for the former World Number 1 to build her confidence. This is the kind of match that should allow Azarenka to build up her rhythm and I think she is going to be good enough to break down the Nara game, although there will be some early swings in momentum.
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games v Lukas Lacko: There is little doubt that Marcos Baghdatis has seen his best days on a tennis court, but he remains keen on competing and I do think he can win this First Round match in St Petersburg.
There are signs Baghdatis has slipped a little more in 2018, but his break numbers on the hard courts have been decent and I think that makes the difference in this match.
Lukas Lacko is talented, but he has struggled to take his performances to the main ATP level and his return game has been a real problem for him. That isn't helped by the fact that his own serve is one that can be attacked and I think Baghdatis will be the player who has the majority of break point chances during the course of the match.
Of course he does need to take those chances if he is going to make this a more comfortable day in the office than it may otherwise be. Lacko is someone you don't really want to leave to hang around because he is capable of putting together some solid points at pressurised moments.
However his numbers are some way below what Baghdatis has been able to produce on the hard courts in 2018 and I will back the veteran to move through to the Second Round.
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 games v Joao Sousa: Don't underestimate Joao Sousa who has won an ATP title on the indoor hard courts and who also has played better than his results may suggest on this surface in 2018.
His run at the US Open shows what Sousa is capable of when he gets on a run and he is always involved in close matches that could easily have gone his way with a little more luck.
Even with that in mind, I am going to oppose him with Daniil Medvedev who has been in good form over the last couple of months and looks capable of producing a strong end to 2018. Medvedev is comfortable on the hard courts and his numbers have improved in 2018 compared with 2017 as the youngster continues his positive development on the Tour.
Both players should feel pretty good behind their serve, but Medvedev has the slightly better return game and I think that will make the difference in a close match. The home support will aid Medvedev a bit more and I think he will be able to edge out Sousa in three sets.
MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Victoria Azarenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Season 2018 Update: + 31.74 Units (1467 Units Staked, + 2.16% Yield)
Monday, 29 January 2018
Tennis Picks 2018 (January 29th)
The Australian Open came to a close on Sunday and there isn't much I can say about Roger Federer that hasn't already been said.
Federer won his 20th Grand Slam title which is a remarkable achievement as he continues ripping up records going into his 37th year. There are very few signs that Federer is slowing down and he is likely to go down as the best men's player of all time and alongside some of the icons of sporting history.
I have no doubt we have been blessed in recent years with the likes of Federer, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic leading the way, but I am also hoping there won't be a transitional period before the next set of players take over at the top. At the moment injuries and the next generation not quite being up to speed means there is something of a void behind Federer and Nadal which is something most would not have considered even two years ago.
There is definitely a chance for Federer to add to the Slams he has won, although I do wonder if he will take the same approach as last season and decide to skip the clay court season again. He has every chance to get back to World Number 1 even though he has a lot of points to defend in the months ahead, and I think it is great that we get to enjoy watching this play produce the tennis he has been.
But at the moment who would deny that Federer will be going into Wimbledon and the US Open as the favourite to win those two Slams too? Barring a recovery from some of the big names on the Tour, I certainly wouldn't want to back against Federer doing that and all of a sudden he would only be one Grand Slam behind Serena Williams and almost ten clear of the record Pete Sampras set in the men's game that many thought would last more time than it ended up doing.
It's been fascinating to watch Federer and he deserves all the plaudits heading his way after winning a third Slam in twelve months.
The Australian Open may be in the books, but the Tennis Tour moves on with the WTA hosting a couple of tournaments this week. The big one comes from St Petersburg, although top Seed Caroline Wozniacki is likely to withdraw after winning her maiden Grand Slam title in Melbourne on Saturday.
There are still some big names in action there while the ATP Tour has a week off. Later this week there is Davis Cup action with the World Group ties beginning over the weekend, but it all means there are likely to be fewer Tennis Picks with fewer options out there.
While I enjoyed the Australian Open as a fan, it was a tough time for the picks with a really poor start which was always going to be difficult to recover. I did have some success doing that later in the week, but it was tough with the outright picks also coming close to some real success before ending up with a narrow loss despite the Roger Federer pick to win the tournament.
A long season has plenty of time to be turned back around and it is a marathon not a sprint to do that too.
Katerina Siniakova - 3.5 games v Donna Vekic: Two young players meet in the main draw in St Petersburg as the First Round gets underway on Monday and both Katerina Siniakova and Donna Vekic will believe they can win this match.
More of the belief may come down on the side of Siniakova who has beaten Vekic twice on the professional Tour including a one-sided win over her on the indoor courts in Moscow a few months ago.
One of the big factors in the match has to be the superior serving that Siniakova can produce- while she is still lacking the consistency to really start a considerable move up the World Rankings, Siniakova is someone who can serve very effectively and bring up the short ball to put away.
At times Vekic's return game will be getting the better of the moments, but her own serve has proven to be pretty vulnerable in recent months. You would perhaps expect it to be a more effective weapon than it is, but Vekic struggles to protect the second serve and can lose her rhythm on the first serve which should be an area in which Siniakova can attack and have success.
I don't think there will be a lot between them at times, but when Siniakova finds her highest level I believe she will look the better player. That should show up on the scoreboard as Siniakova is able to find a 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 win in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Katerina Siniakova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Season 2018: - 16.70 Units (154 Units Staked, - 10.84% Yield)
Federer won his 20th Grand Slam title which is a remarkable achievement as he continues ripping up records going into his 37th year. There are very few signs that Federer is slowing down and he is likely to go down as the best men's player of all time and alongside some of the icons of sporting history.
I have no doubt we have been blessed in recent years with the likes of Federer, Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic leading the way, but I am also hoping there won't be a transitional period before the next set of players take over at the top. At the moment injuries and the next generation not quite being up to speed means there is something of a void behind Federer and Nadal which is something most would not have considered even two years ago.
There is definitely a chance for Federer to add to the Slams he has won, although I do wonder if he will take the same approach as last season and decide to skip the clay court season again. He has every chance to get back to World Number 1 even though he has a lot of points to defend in the months ahead, and I think it is great that we get to enjoy watching this play produce the tennis he has been.
But at the moment who would deny that Federer will be going into Wimbledon and the US Open as the favourite to win those two Slams too? Barring a recovery from some of the big names on the Tour, I certainly wouldn't want to back against Federer doing that and all of a sudden he would only be one Grand Slam behind Serena Williams and almost ten clear of the record Pete Sampras set in the men's game that many thought would last more time than it ended up doing.
It's been fascinating to watch Federer and he deserves all the plaudits heading his way after winning a third Slam in twelve months.
The Australian Open may be in the books, but the Tennis Tour moves on with the WTA hosting a couple of tournaments this week. The big one comes from St Petersburg, although top Seed Caroline Wozniacki is likely to withdraw after winning her maiden Grand Slam title in Melbourne on Saturday.
There are still some big names in action there while the ATP Tour has a week off. Later this week there is Davis Cup action with the World Group ties beginning over the weekend, but it all means there are likely to be fewer Tennis Picks with fewer options out there.
While I enjoyed the Australian Open as a fan, it was a tough time for the picks with a really poor start which was always going to be difficult to recover. I did have some success doing that later in the week, but it was tough with the outright picks also coming close to some real success before ending up with a narrow loss despite the Roger Federer pick to win the tournament.
A long season has plenty of time to be turned back around and it is a marathon not a sprint to do that too.
Katerina Siniakova - 3.5 games v Donna Vekic: Two young players meet in the main draw in St Petersburg as the First Round gets underway on Monday and both Katerina Siniakova and Donna Vekic will believe they can win this match.
More of the belief may come down on the side of Siniakova who has beaten Vekic twice on the professional Tour including a one-sided win over her on the indoor courts in Moscow a few months ago.
One of the big factors in the match has to be the superior serving that Siniakova can produce- while she is still lacking the consistency to really start a considerable move up the World Rankings, Siniakova is someone who can serve very effectively and bring up the short ball to put away.
At times Vekic's return game will be getting the better of the moments, but her own serve has proven to be pretty vulnerable in recent months. You would perhaps expect it to be a more effective weapon than it is, but Vekic struggles to protect the second serve and can lose her rhythm on the first serve which should be an area in which Siniakova can attack and have success.
I don't think there will be a lot between them at times, but when Siniakova finds her highest level I believe she will look the better player. That should show up on the scoreboard as Siniakova is able to find a 3-6, 6-3, 6-2 win in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Katerina Siniakova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Season 2018: - 16.70 Units (154 Units Staked, - 10.84% Yield)
Saturday, 4 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 4th)
For a little while it looked like all of the First Round Davis Cup ties could be completed by Saturday in the Doubles, but after the first day is completed there are a few ties that will go into at least a Rubber 4 on Sunday.
I won't be making any picks from the Doubles matches scheduled for Saturday, but instead I will be focusing on the Semi Final matches at the WTA St Petersburg and WTA Taipei City events which do take place on this day.
It has not been a great week for the picks, but I've mentioned before that you can have these up and down weeks and you have to roll with the punches. Hopefully there is a chance to salvage some success over the next two days before the return of the ATP events next week, but it is what is for this week as I do think there hasn't been as much luck behind the picks as there was at the Australian Open.
Lucie Safarova - 1.5 games v Shuai Peng: This has been a good week for both of these veteran players on the Tour although the favourite for the title in Taipei City remains Elina Svitolina going into the Semi Final matches. However you have to feel the winner of this Semi Final will believe they can go all the way and the layers are anticipating a close contest.
I can understand the thinking when you see how well both have played and Lucie Safarova is perhaps not as far along on her return to form as she may want to be at this stage. If Safarova had produced a couple of big tournaments prior to this one, I think she would be a far shorter price to beat Shuai Peng, but the latter has probably produced a little more form over the last few months to be in a better place mentally.
The serve is definitely stronger for Safarova than it is for Peng, but the latter has the superior movement and will come to the net a lot more frequently despite both having had good success on the Doubles circuit too. If Safarova is serving as she has so far this week, she should feel the confidence to attack the Peng delivery and that might see her have a little too much for her opponent in this Semi Final.
I have no doubt it will be close though and it is going to be a match resolved by a few big points here and there. I think Safarova is just doing well enough at the moment to win those big moments when they occur and I think she will see off Peng 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Mandy Minella: This tournament saw Elina Svitolina come in as the Number 1 Seed and she has proven to be worthy of the spot as she has made it through to the Semi Final. It shouldn't be ignored that none of the other Seeds in the event have made it this far and Svitolina has had three solid wins behind her to get here.
The last Round was difficult as she needed a final set tie-breaker to finally break past Ons Jabeur, but it has been a much more tough path for Mandy Minella to be trod.
Minella has twice lost the first set by a 6-1 scoreline this week and then recovered to fight through to the next Round. She could easily have been knocked out in the First Round and I think Minella will find it much more difficult to peg back Svitolina if she spots her that kind of start in this Semi Final.
The veteran did have a very good looking win over Caroline Garcia here, but Svitolina is another step up and it was the Ukrainian who destroyed Minella in their sole previous match at the US Open last August. On that day Minella was able to take the first set before winning just two more games and I think she may have some difficulties in this one.
My one concern in backing Svitolina is that she can sometimes go walkabout in matches which sees her make too many errors and allow her opponent to get into the match. I am just not sure Minella has the power to really take advantage of even those lapses and I like Svitolina to come through with a 6-4, 6-2 win and move into the Final on Sunday.
Natalia Vikhlyantseva + 3.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: I wrote on Twitter that this has been a special week for Kristina Mladenovic who has been able to take advantage of a kind draw as well as just knuckling down at the big moments to stay focused and win her matches. She is going to have to do the same on Saturday in what looks a big hitting Semi Final against home hope Natalia Vikhlyantseva who is the last Russian in the draw.
Vikhlyantseva benefited from Simona Halep offering her a walkover into the Semi Final, but her win over Daria Kasatkina was impressive. Much of what she can do on the court comes from the confidence behind a big first serve and that needs to be working because Mladenovic is going to bring a lot of power back at the youngster.
Both players will feel they can take advantage of any second serves they see, but I was impressed with the way Vikhlyantseva was able to rally with Kasatkina and break her down with her power being too much to handle. She has to use her groundstrokes to get Mladenovic moving around in this one if she is going to spring the upset and I do think the Russian player can do that to keep this one competitive.
They met on the grass courts last season and the key was how Mladenovic was able to produce a high break point conversion rate to come from a set down and win that match. Both players had decent serving numbers, although not as good as they potentially could be, and I think the winner of this one is going to be who can serve best on the day.
It should be a match that Mladenovic can win, but I am going to take the games with the impressive youngster and look for her to power to a set which may make this number too much for Mladenovic to cover. Vikhlyantseva has to take her break points when they come and she can't allow Mladenovic to get away with her second serve like Roberta Vinci allowed her to and doing that will give her every chance of winning this one outright.
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: I was burned by Yulia Putintseva who won plenty of the rallies with Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat the Russian favourite in the Quarter Final. That was an impressive win, but it was a long day on the court for Putintseva and I am not sure that is the ideal preparation for facing Dominika Cibulkova.
It was a much easier day for Cibulkova who was on the court earlier than Putintseva and won 6-3, 6-3 to move through to the Semi Final. She will work just as hard as Putintseva but I think Cibulkova hits the ball a little more consistently than her opponent and that should see her win a reasonable percentage of the rallies.
There should be plenty of rallies on show as neither has a dominating serve and rely on their movement and power to wear down opponents. That should mean it is a good style match up which should mean a very good match on the court, although I think the time spent on court for Putintseva on Thursday could come back to haunt her.
Putintseva had chances to win her match with Kuznetsova in straight sets rather than being taken into a deep third set and I think Cibulkova will look to expose that. It has been a serene progress through the draw for Cibulkova so she should feel she can be out on court all day and may just be the favourite to win the title in St Petersburg from here.
I can see Cibulkova earning a key break late in the first set that gives her the momentum to put the foot down in the second set and I will back her to cover these games as she continues to do in wins on the indoor hard courts (10-4 covering this number in wins over the last twelve months including twice already in the tournament here).
MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Natalia Vikhlyantseva + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-11, - 10.16 Units (36 Units Staked, - 28.22% Yield)
I won't be making any picks from the Doubles matches scheduled for Saturday, but instead I will be focusing on the Semi Final matches at the WTA St Petersburg and WTA Taipei City events which do take place on this day.
It has not been a great week for the picks, but I've mentioned before that you can have these up and down weeks and you have to roll with the punches. Hopefully there is a chance to salvage some success over the next two days before the return of the ATP events next week, but it is what is for this week as I do think there hasn't been as much luck behind the picks as there was at the Australian Open.
Lucie Safarova - 1.5 games v Shuai Peng: This has been a good week for both of these veteran players on the Tour although the favourite for the title in Taipei City remains Elina Svitolina going into the Semi Final matches. However you have to feel the winner of this Semi Final will believe they can go all the way and the layers are anticipating a close contest.
I can understand the thinking when you see how well both have played and Lucie Safarova is perhaps not as far along on her return to form as she may want to be at this stage. If Safarova had produced a couple of big tournaments prior to this one, I think she would be a far shorter price to beat Shuai Peng, but the latter has probably produced a little more form over the last few months to be in a better place mentally.
The serve is definitely stronger for Safarova than it is for Peng, but the latter has the superior movement and will come to the net a lot more frequently despite both having had good success on the Doubles circuit too. If Safarova is serving as she has so far this week, she should feel the confidence to attack the Peng delivery and that might see her have a little too much for her opponent in this Semi Final.
I have no doubt it will be close though and it is going to be a match resolved by a few big points here and there. I think Safarova is just doing well enough at the moment to win those big moments when they occur and I think she will see off Peng 6-4, 4-6, 6-4.
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 games v Mandy Minella: This tournament saw Elina Svitolina come in as the Number 1 Seed and she has proven to be worthy of the spot as she has made it through to the Semi Final. It shouldn't be ignored that none of the other Seeds in the event have made it this far and Svitolina has had three solid wins behind her to get here.
The last Round was difficult as she needed a final set tie-breaker to finally break past Ons Jabeur, but it has been a much more tough path for Mandy Minella to be trod.
Minella has twice lost the first set by a 6-1 scoreline this week and then recovered to fight through to the next Round. She could easily have been knocked out in the First Round and I think Minella will find it much more difficult to peg back Svitolina if she spots her that kind of start in this Semi Final.
The veteran did have a very good looking win over Caroline Garcia here, but Svitolina is another step up and it was the Ukrainian who destroyed Minella in their sole previous match at the US Open last August. On that day Minella was able to take the first set before winning just two more games and I think she may have some difficulties in this one.
My one concern in backing Svitolina is that she can sometimes go walkabout in matches which sees her make too many errors and allow her opponent to get into the match. I am just not sure Minella has the power to really take advantage of even those lapses and I like Svitolina to come through with a 6-4, 6-2 win and move into the Final on Sunday.
Natalia Vikhlyantseva + 3.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: I wrote on Twitter that this has been a special week for Kristina Mladenovic who has been able to take advantage of a kind draw as well as just knuckling down at the big moments to stay focused and win her matches. She is going to have to do the same on Saturday in what looks a big hitting Semi Final against home hope Natalia Vikhlyantseva who is the last Russian in the draw.
Vikhlyantseva benefited from Simona Halep offering her a walkover into the Semi Final, but her win over Daria Kasatkina was impressive. Much of what she can do on the court comes from the confidence behind a big first serve and that needs to be working because Mladenovic is going to bring a lot of power back at the youngster.
Both players will feel they can take advantage of any second serves they see, but I was impressed with the way Vikhlyantseva was able to rally with Kasatkina and break her down with her power being too much to handle. She has to use her groundstrokes to get Mladenovic moving around in this one if she is going to spring the upset and I do think the Russian player can do that to keep this one competitive.
They met on the grass courts last season and the key was how Mladenovic was able to produce a high break point conversion rate to come from a set down and win that match. Both players had decent serving numbers, although not as good as they potentially could be, and I think the winner of this one is going to be who can serve best on the day.
It should be a match that Mladenovic can win, but I am going to take the games with the impressive youngster and look for her to power to a set which may make this number too much for Mladenovic to cover. Vikhlyantseva has to take her break points when they come and she can't allow Mladenovic to get away with her second serve like Roberta Vinci allowed her to and doing that will give her every chance of winning this one outright.
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Yulia Putintseva: I was burned by Yulia Putintseva who won plenty of the rallies with Svetlana Kuznetsova to beat the Russian favourite in the Quarter Final. That was an impressive win, but it was a long day on the court for Putintseva and I am not sure that is the ideal preparation for facing Dominika Cibulkova.
It was a much easier day for Cibulkova who was on the court earlier than Putintseva and won 6-3, 6-3 to move through to the Semi Final. She will work just as hard as Putintseva but I think Cibulkova hits the ball a little more consistently than her opponent and that should see her win a reasonable percentage of the rallies.
There should be plenty of rallies on show as neither has a dominating serve and rely on their movement and power to wear down opponents. That should mean it is a good style match up which should mean a very good match on the court, although I think the time spent on court for Putintseva on Thursday could come back to haunt her.
Putintseva had chances to win her match with Kuznetsova in straight sets rather than being taken into a deep third set and I think Cibulkova will look to expose that. It has been a serene progress through the draw for Cibulkova so she should feel she can be out on court all day and may just be the favourite to win the title in St Petersburg from here.
I can see Cibulkova earning a key break late in the first set that gives her the momentum to put the foot down in the second set and I will back her to cover these games as she continues to do in wins on the indoor hard courts (10-4 covering this number in wins over the last twelve months including twice already in the tournament here).
MY PICKS: Lucie Safarova - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Natalia Vikhlyantseva + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 7-11, - 10.16 Units (36 Units Staked, - 28.22% Yield)
Thursday, 2 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 2nd)
The Davis Cup first day Singles rubbers will be announced on Thursday so there should be a pretty packed schedule of tennis on Friday, but that is not the case on Thursday when the two WTA tournaments complete their Quarter Final line up.
The picks had a difficult Wednesday as they went 1-2, and the week in a whole has been tough, but there is time to get that turned around. I will continue to focus on the tournament in St Petersburg for my picks on Thursday as I like three players from the Second Round matches to be played in that event.
There are potentially going to be a few more picks on Friday when the Davis Cup first two rubbers are to be played in a number of different ties around the globe. However I can't know for sure until those initial Singles ties are drawn and then there will be the research time to find the right angles from the right matches.
Alize Cornet v Elena Vesnina: An impressive First Round win over Ekaterina Makarova may give Elena Vesnina the confidence to go deep in this tournament in St Petersburg despite showing little in the way of Singles success to open 2017. Vesnina had a pretty poor record against Makarova and the same can be said against this opponent as Alize Cornet leads the head to head 5-2 and has won all four matches between the players on a hard court.
This is an indoor hard court, but Cornet seemed comfortable in the conditions in her own First Round win and the Frenchwoman did battle past Vesnina in her run to the Final in Brisbane. That was a close match that needed a final set tie-breaker to decide it, but it was Cornet's poor break point conversion compared with Vesnina's that made it a tighter match than it perhaps should have been.
I have little doubt this will be a competitive match too with both players dominating behind the serve in the First Round. The serve is going to be very important in the conditions with the first serve likely to set up plenty of short balls that both Cornet and Vesnina can put away.
I think Vesnina is a little stronger, but Cornet is the superior mover and that can extract some errors from the home favourite's racquet. It would be a surprise if either player can win this one in straight sets, but Cornet should hold the mental belief having won all four previous matches on this surface against Vesnina and holding a win over from earlier this season.
After a battle, I am looking for Cornet to come through 7-5, 4-6, 7-5.
Venus Williams - 2.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: The one question that remains about Venus Williams is how much motivation she has coming out of the Australian Open where she was playing in the Final just a few days ago. I would have expected her to pull out of this event, but Venus arrived a couple of days after playing in the Final on Saturday and she has been made to feel very welcome in St Petersburg.
There seemed to be some genuine excitement in her eyes about making her debut at this event and I feel that we will get a proper performance from her. If that is the case, Venus Williams should be too good for Kristina Mladenovic who has just been too inconsistent over the last twelve months to improve the World Ranking as she should have done.
It has been a tough start in 2017 as Mladenovic had lost both matches played very comfortably before battling through a difficult First Round match. She will need to improve her consistency in this one if Mladenovic is going to be able to challenge Venus Williams who should find the conditions suitable for her serve to work to a high standard.
Mladenovic should also appreciate the ability to try and hit through the court, but Venus Williams will see plenty of errors coming from the other side of the net in this one too. If Venus can control her own, I am expecting her to find her way to a 6-4, 6-3 kind of win and a place in the Quarter Final on Friday.
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Donna Vekic: At the moment Donna Vekic might be better known for being Stan Wawrinka's girlfriend, but the 20 year old was once considered to have the ability to get to the top of the women's game. There is plenty of time for her to get things moving in a positive direction for her World Ranking, but Vekic needs to find some consistency in her performances.
She is taking advantage of a Lucky Loser spot in the draw this week but Vekic has taken some comfortable defeats to the likes of Daria Gavrilova and Caroline Wozniacki already in 2017 and her wins this week won't worry someone as good as Dominika Cibulkova can be. Vekic had a poor 4-16 record on the main Tour last season too and she can just have some difficulties in staying with some of the better players she has met in that time.
However Vekic may feel she can have some chances against Cibulkova who doesn't possess the biggest serve and so there should be an opportunity to get into those games and perhaps find some break points. This is also the first match Cibulkova is playing here in 2017 and that is compared to the four that Vekic has played meaning a familiarity with the conditions might also see the Croatian settle a little better.
In saying that, Cibulkova seems to like playing indoors with a very solid 15-3 record on the indoor hard courts including reaching the Quarter Final here. Cibulkova won two titles on the indoor hard courts and she was 9-4 covering this number in matches that were played before the WTA Finals which was another tournament Cibulkova ended up winning.
I think this could be a difficult match for Cibulkova if she is not focused, but I do expect the Slovakian to work as hard as usual and that should wear down Vekic. They are 1-1 in their head to head match ups with Vekic winning the most recent, but I think Cibulkova gets the better of her after feeling her way into the conditions and comes away with a 7-5, 6-3 win.
MY PICKS: Alize Cornet @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-5, - 2.94 Units (18 Units Staked, - 16.33% Yield)
The picks had a difficult Wednesday as they went 1-2, and the week in a whole has been tough, but there is time to get that turned around. I will continue to focus on the tournament in St Petersburg for my picks on Thursday as I like three players from the Second Round matches to be played in that event.
There are potentially going to be a few more picks on Friday when the Davis Cup first two rubbers are to be played in a number of different ties around the globe. However I can't know for sure until those initial Singles ties are drawn and then there will be the research time to find the right angles from the right matches.
Alize Cornet v Elena Vesnina: An impressive First Round win over Ekaterina Makarova may give Elena Vesnina the confidence to go deep in this tournament in St Petersburg despite showing little in the way of Singles success to open 2017. Vesnina had a pretty poor record against Makarova and the same can be said against this opponent as Alize Cornet leads the head to head 5-2 and has won all four matches between the players on a hard court.
This is an indoor hard court, but Cornet seemed comfortable in the conditions in her own First Round win and the Frenchwoman did battle past Vesnina in her run to the Final in Brisbane. That was a close match that needed a final set tie-breaker to decide it, but it was Cornet's poor break point conversion compared with Vesnina's that made it a tighter match than it perhaps should have been.
I have little doubt this will be a competitive match too with both players dominating behind the serve in the First Round. The serve is going to be very important in the conditions with the first serve likely to set up plenty of short balls that both Cornet and Vesnina can put away.
I think Vesnina is a little stronger, but Cornet is the superior mover and that can extract some errors from the home favourite's racquet. It would be a surprise if either player can win this one in straight sets, but Cornet should hold the mental belief having won all four previous matches on this surface against Vesnina and holding a win over from earlier this season.
After a battle, I am looking for Cornet to come through 7-5, 4-6, 7-5.
Venus Williams - 2.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: The one question that remains about Venus Williams is how much motivation she has coming out of the Australian Open where she was playing in the Final just a few days ago. I would have expected her to pull out of this event, but Venus arrived a couple of days after playing in the Final on Saturday and she has been made to feel very welcome in St Petersburg.
There seemed to be some genuine excitement in her eyes about making her debut at this event and I feel that we will get a proper performance from her. If that is the case, Venus Williams should be too good for Kristina Mladenovic who has just been too inconsistent over the last twelve months to improve the World Ranking as she should have done.
It has been a tough start in 2017 as Mladenovic had lost both matches played very comfortably before battling through a difficult First Round match. She will need to improve her consistency in this one if Mladenovic is going to be able to challenge Venus Williams who should find the conditions suitable for her serve to work to a high standard.
Mladenovic should also appreciate the ability to try and hit through the court, but Venus Williams will see plenty of errors coming from the other side of the net in this one too. If Venus can control her own, I am expecting her to find her way to a 6-4, 6-3 kind of win and a place in the Quarter Final on Friday.
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 games v Donna Vekic: At the moment Donna Vekic might be better known for being Stan Wawrinka's girlfriend, but the 20 year old was once considered to have the ability to get to the top of the women's game. There is plenty of time for her to get things moving in a positive direction for her World Ranking, but Vekic needs to find some consistency in her performances.
She is taking advantage of a Lucky Loser spot in the draw this week but Vekic has taken some comfortable defeats to the likes of Daria Gavrilova and Caroline Wozniacki already in 2017 and her wins this week won't worry someone as good as Dominika Cibulkova can be. Vekic had a poor 4-16 record on the main Tour last season too and she can just have some difficulties in staying with some of the better players she has met in that time.
However Vekic may feel she can have some chances against Cibulkova who doesn't possess the biggest serve and so there should be an opportunity to get into those games and perhaps find some break points. This is also the first match Cibulkova is playing here in 2017 and that is compared to the four that Vekic has played meaning a familiarity with the conditions might also see the Croatian settle a little better.
In saying that, Cibulkova seems to like playing indoors with a very solid 15-3 record on the indoor hard courts including reaching the Quarter Final here. Cibulkova won two titles on the indoor hard courts and she was 9-4 covering this number in matches that were played before the WTA Finals which was another tournament Cibulkova ended up winning.
I think this could be a difficult match for Cibulkova if she is not focused, but I do expect the Slovakian to work as hard as usual and that should wear down Vekic. They are 1-1 in their head to head match ups with Vekic winning the most recent, but I think Cibulkova gets the better of her after feeling her way into the conditions and comes away with a 7-5, 6-3 win.
MY PICKS: Alize Cornet @ 2.00 Coral (2 Units)
Venus Williams - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Dominika Cibulkova - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-5, - 2.94 Units (18 Units Staked, - 16.33% Yield)
Wednesday, 1 February 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (February 1st)
After a disappointing Monday to open the events being played this week, Tuesday was a lot better for the picks which ended 3-1 from the event in St Petersburg. It was almost a clean sweep for the picks, but Roberta Vinci couldn't quite earn the break early enough in her final set decider against Timea Babos, but at least this week has moved in a positive direction.
On Wednesday there are a number of Second Round matches taking place in the two tournaments being played, while we are a little closer to the First Round Davis Cup ties which will begin on Friday and be played over the weekend. I tend to find the opening Singles rubbers are priced up in time, but the Sunday Singles ties seem to be left alone by the layers until much closer to the time in which the players are going to be taking to the court.
That might have something to do with the fact that some of those Singles players are involved in the Doubles rubbers on Saturday, or because the layers don't know which players will be sent out on a Sunday when the Davis Cup Captains tend to make changes.
Once again I am focusing on the St Petersburg tournament on Wednesday where five matches are scheduled including the final First Round match between Doubles partners Elena Vesnina and Ekaterina Makarova. It also means Venus Williams has not been scheduled to play until Thursday giving the Australian Open Runner Up as much time to decide if she is going to take part in the draw, although I am still surprised that is up in the air as I would have assumed she would have withdrawn the day after the Australian Open was concluded.
Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: Nothing that Ekaterina Makarova or Elena Vesnina bring to the court should be a surprise to the other as they should have practiced with each other plenty over the years. They are good friends and Doubles partners so there shouldn't be anything happening on the court they would not have been expecting.
The edge has to be given to Makarova despite an issue with her arm at the Australian Open which might have affected her later in the tournament. She has won seven of the last eight matches against Vesnina with the one exception coming at Wimbledon last season in what was a tight win for Vesnina.
Makarova earned a measure of revenge for that defeat by beating Vesnina later in 2016 and Makarova has now won 15/17 sets competed by these Doubles partners. The majority of those sets have been won with some comfort and that is hard to ignore going into this First Round clash between the players.
Neither player was in great form before the Australian Open where they both perhaps overachieved. I think this might be an interesting match at times, but I think Makarova will be able to wear down Vesnina and come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 games v Natalia Vikhlyantseva: You have to be impressed with some of the performances Daria Kasatkina has produced on the main Tour and she was a very good winner against Belinda Bencic in the First Round. The return was working very well, but some of the shot making through the rallies was very impressive and Kasatkina will feel she can have a big impact in a tournament in front of her home fans.
Kasatkina should be familiar with Natalia Vikhlyantseva who is the same age and from the same country, although she is yet to make the same kind of impact on the Tour. Vikhlyantseva is taller than Kasatkina so she will try and use the serve to good effect, and she has already made use of the Wild Card she has been given by demolishing Yaroslava Shvedova in the First Round.
It would be wrong to dismiss Vikhlyantseva's chances out of hand because she has had some positive results over the last twelve months and she does train the same academy as Serena Williams these days. She also has some power and will look to hit through Kastakina, but I like the latter to wear her down over the course of the time they spend on court.
I think the Kasatkina return is going to be able to blunt some of what Vikhlyantseva is able to throw at her and that can see her force her compatriot into making some mistakes. It will be down to whether Kasatkina can serve as well as she did against Bencic when she was able to hit her marks and prevent Bencic from being able to overpower her.
After a battle through the first set, I think Kasatkina is able to pull through with a 7-5, 6-3 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: The last match out on court in St Petersburg looks like it could be a really attractive one to watch between Svetlana Kuznetsova and Daria Gavrilova. Both players should receive some support but you have to think the majority will get behind Kuznetsova who still represents Russia while Gavrilova has switched allegiance to Australia.
This has been a match up Kuznetsova has enjoyed with three wins against Gavrilova and I would be surprised if there isn't an additional motivation to beat someone who has defected from Russia. These players met twice on the Tour last season and the match on the clay courts was very competitive, but they also met on the indoor courts of Moscow and Kuznetsova crushed Gavrilova for the loss of just three games.
It wasn't the best month for Kuznetsova who reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open but who will perhaps feel she should have gotten much deeper into the draw. Gavrilova did have another solid run at the Australian Open and she can thank her battling quality for being able to get past a couple of opponents there in tight matches.
Battling past Kuznetsova will be much more difficult as I think the older player has the more effective serve which can be used to good effect on the indoor hard courts. She should be well rested to challenge Gavrilova in the longer rallies too as both players look to hit the ball harder than the other, but I think Kuznetsova is still the better player at this point of their careers.
It won't be easy for Kuznetsova, but I do think she will come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.76 Units (12 Units Staked, - 6.33% Yield)
On Wednesday there are a number of Second Round matches taking place in the two tournaments being played, while we are a little closer to the First Round Davis Cup ties which will begin on Friday and be played over the weekend. I tend to find the opening Singles rubbers are priced up in time, but the Sunday Singles ties seem to be left alone by the layers until much closer to the time in which the players are going to be taking to the court.
That might have something to do with the fact that some of those Singles players are involved in the Doubles rubbers on Saturday, or because the layers don't know which players will be sent out on a Sunday when the Davis Cup Captains tend to make changes.
Once again I am focusing on the St Petersburg tournament on Wednesday where five matches are scheduled including the final First Round match between Doubles partners Elena Vesnina and Ekaterina Makarova. It also means Venus Williams has not been scheduled to play until Thursday giving the Australian Open Runner Up as much time to decide if she is going to take part in the draw, although I am still surprised that is up in the air as I would have assumed she would have withdrawn the day after the Australian Open was concluded.
Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 games v Elena Vesnina: Nothing that Ekaterina Makarova or Elena Vesnina bring to the court should be a surprise to the other as they should have practiced with each other plenty over the years. They are good friends and Doubles partners so there shouldn't be anything happening on the court they would not have been expecting.
The edge has to be given to Makarova despite an issue with her arm at the Australian Open which might have affected her later in the tournament. She has won seven of the last eight matches against Vesnina with the one exception coming at Wimbledon last season in what was a tight win for Vesnina.
Makarova earned a measure of revenge for that defeat by beating Vesnina later in 2016 and Makarova has now won 15/17 sets competed by these Doubles partners. The majority of those sets have been won with some comfort and that is hard to ignore going into this First Round clash between the players.
Neither player was in great form before the Australian Open where they both perhaps overachieved. I think this might be an interesting match at times, but I think Makarova will be able to wear down Vesnina and come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win.
Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 games v Natalia Vikhlyantseva: You have to be impressed with some of the performances Daria Kasatkina has produced on the main Tour and she was a very good winner against Belinda Bencic in the First Round. The return was working very well, but some of the shot making through the rallies was very impressive and Kasatkina will feel she can have a big impact in a tournament in front of her home fans.
Kasatkina should be familiar with Natalia Vikhlyantseva who is the same age and from the same country, although she is yet to make the same kind of impact on the Tour. Vikhlyantseva is taller than Kasatkina so she will try and use the serve to good effect, and she has already made use of the Wild Card she has been given by demolishing Yaroslava Shvedova in the First Round.
It would be wrong to dismiss Vikhlyantseva's chances out of hand because she has had some positive results over the last twelve months and she does train the same academy as Serena Williams these days. She also has some power and will look to hit through Kastakina, but I like the latter to wear her down over the course of the time they spend on court.
I think the Kasatkina return is going to be able to blunt some of what Vikhlyantseva is able to throw at her and that can see her force her compatriot into making some mistakes. It will be down to whether Kasatkina can serve as well as she did against Bencic when she was able to hit her marks and prevent Bencic from being able to overpower her.
After a battle through the first set, I think Kasatkina is able to pull through with a 7-5, 6-3 win and a place in the Quarter Final.
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: The last match out on court in St Petersburg looks like it could be a really attractive one to watch between Svetlana Kuznetsova and Daria Gavrilova. Both players should receive some support but you have to think the majority will get behind Kuznetsova who still represents Russia while Gavrilova has switched allegiance to Australia.
This has been a match up Kuznetsova has enjoyed with three wins against Gavrilova and I would be surprised if there isn't an additional motivation to beat someone who has defected from Russia. These players met twice on the Tour last season and the match on the clay courts was very competitive, but they also met on the indoor courts of Moscow and Kuznetsova crushed Gavrilova for the loss of just three games.
It wasn't the best month for Kuznetsova who reached the Fourth Round at the Australian Open but who will perhaps feel she should have gotten much deeper into the draw. Gavrilova did have another solid run at the Australian Open and she can thank her battling quality for being able to get past a couple of opponents there in tight matches.
Battling past Kuznetsova will be much more difficult as I think the older player has the more effective serve which can be used to good effect on the indoor hard courts. She should be well rested to challenge Gavrilova in the longer rallies too as both players look to hit the ball harder than the other, but I think Kuznetsova is still the better player at this point of their careers.
It won't be easy for Kuznetsova, but I do think she will come through with a 6-4, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Ekaterina Makarova - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.76 Units (12 Units Staked, - 6.33% Yield)
Tuesday, 31 January 2017
Tennis Picks 2017 (January 31st)
It has been a couple of days since the Australian Open 2017 was completed and it is still taking some time for things to sink in.
I would not have imagined Roger Federer was able to come back from the first significant injury of his career and actually go all the way and win the title in Melbourne. For starters the first two Slams of the season are not really suited to his style as well as Wimbledon and the US Open tournaments are and I thought coming in as the Number 17 Seed would mean too many obstacles needed to be cleared for him to win the the title.
It is a testament to his greatness that Federer was able to see off the likes of Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal in this event, and fitness shouldn't be a concern having won the last three of those matches in five setters. Getting up to Number 18 in terms of Grand Slams won might just mean Federer is holding the record for some time to come, and it was a memorable event for him.
There was also a hint or two that Federer might not be around beyond 2017 in his victory speech- he mentioned he 'hopes' to be back in Australia next year, but also admitted 'if not, this is a great way to go out' so I do think retirement may be on the mind. We should all enjoy Federer while he is around because not many players can play like he can and I am definitely making plans to make sure I have another opportunity to see him live at some point in this season.
For Rafael Nadal the Australian Open has to be seen as a success even if he just came down on the wrong side of the final score. He would not have been expecting a lot and so this event should give him the confidence to take into the rest of the season, especially the clay court season which will begin soon.
Nadal won't be taking part in the Golden Swing in South America like he has in recent years, but his next appearance looks to be in Rotterdam in a couple of weeks time after he pulled out of the Spanish Davis Cup tie this weekend. That's an interesting change for Nadal who will then head off to Mexico for the tournament in Acapulco at the end of the month, but both events will be played on hard courts rather than the red dirt.
We do expect to see Federer next at the Dubai Open at the end of February when Andy Murray is also expected to return, but it is interesting to note that Novak Djokovic is not scheduled to head to that event. As a four time winner in Dubai, I am surprised Djokovic is skipping that event, but is playing for Serbia in the Davis Cup this weekend (at the time of writing anyway). He will then be back on court for the first two Masters events of the season in March, and perhaps that is best for Djokovic to give himself a chance to refocus on matters on the court.
It wasn't the best start for the picks this week as both on Monday came up short, but this is just the start of the week and there is plenty of time to turn things around. I am looking at the First Round matches in St Petersburg to begin that move back into a positive position on Tuesday.
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games v Timea Babos: You would have to think that at some point 33 year old Italian Roberta Vinci may just start slipping down the World Rankings, but I won't question her fitness. She continues to defy when heading into some of these tight, long battles on the court where you think the age would count against her, while Vinci is perhaps still capable of springing an upset or two on her day.
The start of the 2017 season has been far from easy for Vinci, but Timea Babos' confidence can't be in a great place. She has lost in the First or Second Round in six of her last seven tournaments (three First Round losses in the 2017 season) and she also lost both matches at the WTA Elite tournament at the end of the 2016 season. While I have previously mentioned how much I like the Babos game and the expectation she should be an improving player, this is not the best match up for her and even less so when she might be lacking some self-belief.
Vinci has won four of their five previous matches including here in St Petersburg last season in what was a tight Quarter Final decided on a final set tie-breaker. It does have to be said that if Babos is serving well, then this is already looking like a big number for Vinci to cover, but it would take some reversal of recent form for Babos to bring that kind of game to the court.
The indoor conditions shouldn't bother Vinci as the defending Champion in St Petersburg this week and she has a first serve that is under-rated. The backhand wing is there to try and extract errors from her opponents and Babos has been guilty of making plenty of those and I think the Italian is capable of coming through with a 7-6, 6-4 win to move into the Second Round.
Alize Cornet - 2.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: This has been a match up that Alize Cornet has enjoyed over the past couple of years as she has won five of the last six between herself and Kirsten Flipkens. After a pretty solid start to 2017, Cornet had a disappointing time at the Australian Open and Flipkens might have an edge having come through three Qualifiers to take her place in the main draw in St Petersburg.
That should mean Flipkens is very comfortable in the conditions, although she has needed to win the last two Qualifiers in final set deciders. There hasn't been any days off for the Belgian either and Flipkens had not begun 2017 as well as she would have liked so confidence could still be an issue against a player that has dominated their recent matches.
This feels like a match that will have some twists and turns with neither player dominant behind serve and I think the match is going to hinge on a few big points here and there. That has been the case in some of their recent matches which have fluctuated back and forth and that can be the case when you have an erratic player like Cornet whose highest level is above Flipkens, but who can also produce plenty of trash tennis when she mentally loses focus.
It should be less of an issue when Cornet is playing someone she has dominated in recent matches and I expect that to help her through this one. Flipkens will feel good with three quick wins behind her, but this could be another match filled with long rallies and I expect that gives Cornet a chance to come through with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 win.
Ana Konjuh - 1.5 games v Monica Niculescu: There are some similarities with the way this season has begun for both Ana Konjuh and Monica Niculescu as both have reached the Final of a tournament and she gone out of the Australian Open earlier than they would have expected. Now they meet in the First Round in St Petersburg as they look for another strong run in a WTA event.
Ana Konjuh has been tipped to make the next step in her career and the 19 year old has so much potential that she has been able to show off at times. Inconsistent results are not a surprise for a player as young as the Croatian, but there is a feeling she is almost ready to really make a move up the World Rankings and announce herself to casual tennis fans.
She will need to stay in this match mentally because Monica Niculescu can be an awkward and frustrating player to compete against. Unlike most players, Niculescu lives off the slice from the forehand and will look to use her variation and change of speeds on the court to try and frustrate Konjuh and extract errors from her game when the youngster tries to hit through the court.
The layers are pretty much spot on that this is going to be a close match because Konjuh is going to have to work hard to win her points. It is tough to stay in a match mentally when you feel your opponent is frustrating you but I do think it is important that Konjuh has faced Niculescu before because that should make her feel a little more comfortable on the court.
After a three set battle, I will look for Konjuh to have taken control in a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 games v Belinda Bencic: One of the more disappointing stories at the Australian Open was the Daria Kasatkina one as she was beaten in the First Round at an event where she looked like she could produce a big impact. There had been a lot to like about the way Kasatkina had been playing in Brisbane and Sydney so her defeat at the Australian Open was one that was not really expected.
This tournament is a chance for Kasatkina to get some of her momentum back but the First Round has pitted her with Belinda Bencic who has been returned to the Tour following an injury hit 2016. Bencic is yet to show she is fully over her health issues having had to pull out early in a match in Sydney and that is going to be tested by Kasatkina.
Bencic showed flashes of what she is capable of by challenging Serena Williams in the First Round at the Australian Open, but that also means she has lost eight of her last nine matches. That has to have an affect on any player's confidence levels and facing someone as good as Kasatkina is going to be another big test for Bencic.
There will be times when she is getting the upper hand in the rallies, but the question is can she do it for long enough to win this match? I am not convinced about that and I think Kasatkina can weather the storm and then start showing her own dominance on the court in what could end up being a 7-6, 6-4 kind of win for the young Russian with a big future on the WTA Tour.
MY PICKS: Roberta Vinci - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Konjuh - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Australian Open Final: + 16.10 Units (168 Units Staked, + 9.58% Yield)
Season 2017: + 6.70 Units (254 Units Staked, + 2.64% Yield)
I would not have imagined Roger Federer was able to come back from the first significant injury of his career and actually go all the way and win the title in Melbourne. For starters the first two Slams of the season are not really suited to his style as well as Wimbledon and the US Open tournaments are and I thought coming in as the Number 17 Seed would mean too many obstacles needed to be cleared for him to win the the title.
It is a testament to his greatness that Federer was able to see off the likes of Tomas Berdych, Kei Nishikori, Stan Wawrinka and Rafael Nadal in this event, and fitness shouldn't be a concern having won the last three of those matches in five setters. Getting up to Number 18 in terms of Grand Slams won might just mean Federer is holding the record for some time to come, and it was a memorable event for him.
There was also a hint or two that Federer might not be around beyond 2017 in his victory speech- he mentioned he 'hopes' to be back in Australia next year, but also admitted 'if not, this is a great way to go out' so I do think retirement may be on the mind. We should all enjoy Federer while he is around because not many players can play like he can and I am definitely making plans to make sure I have another opportunity to see him live at some point in this season.
For Rafael Nadal the Australian Open has to be seen as a success even if he just came down on the wrong side of the final score. He would not have been expecting a lot and so this event should give him the confidence to take into the rest of the season, especially the clay court season which will begin soon.
Nadal won't be taking part in the Golden Swing in South America like he has in recent years, but his next appearance looks to be in Rotterdam in a couple of weeks time after he pulled out of the Spanish Davis Cup tie this weekend. That's an interesting change for Nadal who will then head off to Mexico for the tournament in Acapulco at the end of the month, but both events will be played on hard courts rather than the red dirt.
We do expect to see Federer next at the Dubai Open at the end of February when Andy Murray is also expected to return, but it is interesting to note that Novak Djokovic is not scheduled to head to that event. As a four time winner in Dubai, I am surprised Djokovic is skipping that event, but is playing for Serbia in the Davis Cup this weekend (at the time of writing anyway). He will then be back on court for the first two Masters events of the season in March, and perhaps that is best for Djokovic to give himself a chance to refocus on matters on the court.
It wasn't the best start for the picks this week as both on Monday came up short, but this is just the start of the week and there is plenty of time to turn things around. I am looking at the First Round matches in St Petersburg to begin that move back into a positive position on Tuesday.
Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games v Timea Babos: You would have to think that at some point 33 year old Italian Roberta Vinci may just start slipping down the World Rankings, but I won't question her fitness. She continues to defy when heading into some of these tight, long battles on the court where you think the age would count against her, while Vinci is perhaps still capable of springing an upset or two on her day.
The start of the 2017 season has been far from easy for Vinci, but Timea Babos' confidence can't be in a great place. She has lost in the First or Second Round in six of her last seven tournaments (three First Round losses in the 2017 season) and she also lost both matches at the WTA Elite tournament at the end of the 2016 season. While I have previously mentioned how much I like the Babos game and the expectation she should be an improving player, this is not the best match up for her and even less so when she might be lacking some self-belief.
Vinci has won four of their five previous matches including here in St Petersburg last season in what was a tight Quarter Final decided on a final set tie-breaker. It does have to be said that if Babos is serving well, then this is already looking like a big number for Vinci to cover, but it would take some reversal of recent form for Babos to bring that kind of game to the court.
The indoor conditions shouldn't bother Vinci as the defending Champion in St Petersburg this week and she has a first serve that is under-rated. The backhand wing is there to try and extract errors from her opponents and Babos has been guilty of making plenty of those and I think the Italian is capable of coming through with a 7-6, 6-4 win to move into the Second Round.
Alize Cornet - 2.5 games v Kirsten Flipkens: This has been a match up that Alize Cornet has enjoyed over the past couple of years as she has won five of the last six between herself and Kirsten Flipkens. After a pretty solid start to 2017, Cornet had a disappointing time at the Australian Open and Flipkens might have an edge having come through three Qualifiers to take her place in the main draw in St Petersburg.
That should mean Flipkens is very comfortable in the conditions, although she has needed to win the last two Qualifiers in final set deciders. There hasn't been any days off for the Belgian either and Flipkens had not begun 2017 as well as she would have liked so confidence could still be an issue against a player that has dominated their recent matches.
This feels like a match that will have some twists and turns with neither player dominant behind serve and I think the match is going to hinge on a few big points here and there. That has been the case in some of their recent matches which have fluctuated back and forth and that can be the case when you have an erratic player like Cornet whose highest level is above Flipkens, but who can also produce plenty of trash tennis when she mentally loses focus.
It should be less of an issue when Cornet is playing someone she has dominated in recent matches and I expect that to help her through this one. Flipkens will feel good with three quick wins behind her, but this could be another match filled with long rallies and I expect that gives Cornet a chance to come through with a 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 win.
Ana Konjuh - 1.5 games v Monica Niculescu: There are some similarities with the way this season has begun for both Ana Konjuh and Monica Niculescu as both have reached the Final of a tournament and she gone out of the Australian Open earlier than they would have expected. Now they meet in the First Round in St Petersburg as they look for another strong run in a WTA event.
Ana Konjuh has been tipped to make the next step in her career and the 19 year old has so much potential that she has been able to show off at times. Inconsistent results are not a surprise for a player as young as the Croatian, but there is a feeling she is almost ready to really make a move up the World Rankings and announce herself to casual tennis fans.
She will need to stay in this match mentally because Monica Niculescu can be an awkward and frustrating player to compete against. Unlike most players, Niculescu lives off the slice from the forehand and will look to use her variation and change of speeds on the court to try and frustrate Konjuh and extract errors from her game when the youngster tries to hit through the court.
The layers are pretty much spot on that this is going to be a close match because Konjuh is going to have to work hard to win her points. It is tough to stay in a match mentally when you feel your opponent is frustrating you but I do think it is important that Konjuh has faced Niculescu before because that should make her feel a little more comfortable on the court.
After a three set battle, I will look for Konjuh to have taken control in a 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 win.
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 games v Belinda Bencic: One of the more disappointing stories at the Australian Open was the Daria Kasatkina one as she was beaten in the First Round at an event where she looked like she could produce a big impact. There had been a lot to like about the way Kasatkina had been playing in Brisbane and Sydney so her defeat at the Australian Open was one that was not really expected.
This tournament is a chance for Kasatkina to get some of her momentum back but the First Round has pitted her with Belinda Bencic who has been returned to the Tour following an injury hit 2016. Bencic is yet to show she is fully over her health issues having had to pull out early in a match in Sydney and that is going to be tested by Kasatkina.
Bencic showed flashes of what she is capable of by challenging Serena Williams in the First Round at the Australian Open, but that also means she has lost eight of her last nine matches. That has to have an affect on any player's confidence levels and facing someone as good as Kasatkina is going to be another big test for Bencic.
There will be times when she is getting the upper hand in the rallies, but the question is can she do it for long enough to win this match? I am not convinced about that and I think Kasatkina can weather the storm and then start showing her own dominance on the court in what could end up being a 7-6, 6-4 kind of win for the young Russian with a big future on the WTA Tour.
MY PICKS: Roberta Vinci - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alize Cornet - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ana Konjuh - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Kasatkina - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-2, - 4 Units (4 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Australian Open Final: + 16.10 Units (168 Units Staked, + 9.58% Yield)
Season 2017: + 6.70 Units (254 Units Staked, + 2.64% Yield)
Season 2016: - 5.64 Units (2013 Units Staked, - 0.00% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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