A busy week is coming to a conclusion, but Friday remains a very busy day with twenty matches scheduled across the five tournaments as we get down to the Quarter Final Round at all of the events that are being played.
The quality of matches should be pretty good throughout the day when you think most players have the confidence of wins behind them and there is a good opportunity for big Ranking points to be picked up. The tournaments are largely looking quite open having seen some of the favourites already beaten, and that also makes things interesting with some competitive looking matches out there on Friday.
The Tennis Picks through Thursday have yet to be completed at the time of writing and some of the markets for the Quarter Final matches have yet to be put together. That means I may add a couple of selections on Friday when I will update the season totals too.
Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Daniel Evans: The form that these two players have shown in their first two wins in Rotterdam suggests this is going to be a very good match between Gael Monfils and Daniel Evans. Both have been very deserving winners in the two wins they have put on the board, while Gael Monfils will have the additional confidence that comes from winning a title in Montpellier last week and being the defending Champion here in Rotterdam too.
That doesn't mean he is going to be able to breeze past opponents despite being a strong winner against Joao Sousa and Gilles Simon. In this Quarter Final he has to deal with the hot serving that Daniel Evans has produced as he looks to set a new career best World Ranking at the end of the tournament.
The British player has held serve in 92% of service games played here in Rotterdam so far this week and he has won well over 70% of service points played which makes it very hard to put him under pressure. However Evans is now facing Gael Monfils who has broken in more than half of the return games played and who has regularly been a solid enough returner on the Tour with his athleticism meaning he can get more balls back in play than opponents may expect.
Gael Monfils will feel there is room for improvement behind the serve, and that is going to be tested by Evans in this match. This week has been a touch more difficult for Daniel Evans when it comes to converting breaks, but in general it is a strength of his game on the hard courts and he will believe he can frustrate his opponent into errors in what looks like a good match.
Their previous meeting was narrowly won by Gael Monfils when they met a little under three years ago in Dubai. Conditions indoors are a little different, but it is surroundings in which the Frenchman has played well and it may give him enough of an edge to come away with the win.
It is hard to imagine Daniel Evans maintaining his number on the serve that he has produced so far this week, and especially not against Gael Monfils returning the ball as he has been. That might be the difference between the players with the superior returning helping Monfils through to the Semi Final and I will look for him to do enough to cover this mark.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Filip Krajinovic: With the likes of Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas out of the running, Andrey Rublev may just be the favourite to win another title in 2020. He had a strong first month of the season and the Russian has been as strong as anyone out there on the hard courts over the last twelve months, although he is perhaps still looking for a stand out win or two.
All the youngster wants to do is continue to show signs of improvement and his numbers to open 2020 have been very, very impressive. The serve has been a potent weapon for him so far and that has been the case in the two wins recorded this week in Rotterdam as Rublev has held every service game he has played.
More impressive is the fact that he has yet to face a break point and he rightly goes into this Quarter Final as the favourite. Andrey Rublev has been winning 40% of return points and broken in 26% of return games on the hard courts in 2020, but he has improved both marks this week and his overall game looks in a perfect place.
He will be facing Filip Krajinovic who has also had a solid enough start to 2020, but the Serbian was a little fortunate to come through his Second Round match. I can't read too much into his First Round win over a local Wild Card who is Ranked at Number 172 in the World, although the win over Vasek Pospisil is more impressive considering the form of the Canadian.
In saying that I have mentioned that Krajinovic was a touch fortunate having saved eight of the nine break points faced in the Second Round. Filip Krajinovic only won five more points overall in that win over Pospisil, and his serve has simply not been as effective as the one that Andrey Rublev brings to the court.
They have split two previous meetings on the hard courts, but the more recent one saw Andrey Rublev crush Filip Krajinovic at the Davis Cup in November 2019. In that match Krajinovic struggled to get a handle on the Rublev serve, while his own was attacked with huge success for the Russian.
It might not be as comfortable as the Davis Cup win was, but I still think Andrey Rublev can get the better of Filip Krajinovic and he can cover the mark too.
Miomir Kecmanovic v Ugo Humbert: Winning a title in Auckland means Ugo Humbert has made a strong start to 2020, but he has subsequently lost in First Round matches at the Australian Open and in Montpellier. Earning a bye through to the Second Round here where Humbert crushed Marcos Giron will at least be a boost for the Frenchman, but he is facing an opponent who has looked good so far this week.
Strong serving has been what we have come to expect from Miomir Kecmanovic in the last couple of years on the hard courts and it has been no different to begin the 2020 season. This week he has held in 88% of the service games he has played and Kecmanovic has been freed up on the return of serve to really make sure he wins matches with some relative comfort.
The return of serve has been an improving part of the Kecmanovic game, although it is going to be severely tested by Ugo Humbert if he continues to perform as he has been. Coming from the lefty stance already gives Humbert some edge and he has held 86% of service games played on the hard courts in 2020.
It has allowed the Frenchman to have some freedom on the return of serve himself and it will be interesting to see which of these players can put their stamp on this match on that side of their game. In the overall numbers it is Miomir Kecmanovic who looks to have a slight advantage, but backing that up is the head to head between these two players.
They met twice in 2019, once on the grass and once on the hard courts, and it was Miomir Kecmanovic who won both matches. In the two matches combined, Kecmanovic held 94% of service games played, but it is the return numbers which have really impressed as he has restricted Ugo Humbert to holding just 63% of the service games he has played.
When they met on the hard courts seven months ago, Ugo Humbert was comfortably dismissed as he created a single break point and only won 50% of points behind serve and was broken four times.
There has been some strong performances from Ugo Humbert this year, but that head to head advantage can't be ignored. Miomir Kecmanovic has been playing well enough to back as the underdog and I think he has every chance of moving into the Semi Final if he can serve as he has been doing.
Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 games v Pedro Sousa: Any time you receive a Lucky Loser spot into the main draw of a tournament it has to feel like you are playing with 'house money'. That is how Pedro Sousa must be approaching things in Buenos Aires this week as he reached the Quarter Final but all but one of his four matches have been played against players Ranked outside the top 100.
The other was against the World Number 99 and while Thiago Monteiro has yet to crack the top 70 in the World Rankings, he is a player who has always shown considerable form when the Golden Swing heads to South America. A title win in a Challenger event was followed by an early defeat in Cordoba last week, but Monteiro has two solid looking wins here already and confidence has to be high.
So far in 2020, Monteiro has won 68% of the service points played behind serve on the clay courts and he has won 40% against the opponent's serve. Those numbers have been steady in the two wins he has had in Buenos Aires, but here Thiago Monteiro is holding in 90% of service games played and broken in 30% of return games and that includes upsetting Borna Coric in the Second Round.
Pedro Sousa rode his luck at times in his win in the Second Round, and his numbers on the clay courts have long been relatively average which is underlined by his World Ranking being down at Number 145. He was beaten early at a Challenger event on the clay and failed to win a Qualifier in Cordoba last week which suggests he has been overachieving by reaching the Quarter Final here this week.
The Portuguese player has been a lot more efficient when it comes to having break point than when facing them in the two matches in the main draw here in Buenos Aires. Even then Sousa is holding just 75% of his service games and breaking in 29% of return games during this tournament and you do feel the break point numbers are going to drop backwards.
He has saved fourteen of the last seventeen break points faced, while taking five of the eighteen he has created. Pedro Sousa will have been given some confidence by his wins, but Thiago Monteiro is playing at a higher level and I think that will see the Brazilian prove to be too good on the day.
They did meet in Rio de Janeiro last year on the clay courts and it was Monteiro who won relatively easily despite being involved in a match where breaks came thick and fast. The service games being played by Thiago Monteiro this season suggests he won't be as weak behind the serve this week and he looks a decent back to cover the line being set for this one.
MY PICKS: Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Miomir Kecmanovic @ 2.20 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Thiago Monteiro - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Casper Ruud - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pablo Carreno Busta @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Saisai Zheng - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Elena Rybakina - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Andreas Seppi @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 14-12, + 0.82 Units (52 Units Staked + 1.58% Yield)
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Friday, 14 February 2020
Tuesday, 11 February 2020
Tennis Picks 2020 (February 11th)
There are a lot of First Round matches scheduled for Tuesday at the five tournaments being played this week as those events really begin to get going.
In this thread I am going to place the selections from the Tuesday matches, but I will have to update the totals from the Monday matches as soon as the late ones from New York have been completed.
It is likely to be the case for the majority of the week with the tournaments in North and South America scheduling some late starts, but at least I can place the full Tuesday selections in this thread having had the order of play from all five events already being released.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: Winning back to back tournaments in January followed by a run through to the Fourth Round at the Australian Open has helped Andrey Rublev reach a career best Number 15 in the World Rankings. At 22 years old the Russian is not expecting this to be the peak of his career though as he continues to show improvement on the Tour and that is especially the case on the hard courts.
This is a big tournament in Rotterdam this week so there are no easy matches from the off and that is proven by Rublev being paired with Nikoloz Basilashvili in the First Round. The Georgian is still inside the top thirty in the World Rankings and was as high as Number 16 just last year, although it has been a more difficult start to the 2020 season for him than it has for Andrey Rublev.
Nikoloz Basilashvili was beaten in the Second Round at the Australian Open and he is just 2-3 on the hard courts to open 2020. He has finished with a winning record in each of the last three seasons on this surface, but Basilashvili has always produced average numbers which suggests there isn't much margin for error to prevent him from hitting a really poor run.
Draws will make a difference, but this looks to be a very difficult one for Basilashvili who was beaten by Andrey Rublev when these players last met back in August. Nikoloz Basilashvili was 2-0 in the head to head before losing to the Russian in Cincinnati, and that result also means they are now 1-1 on the hard courts against each other, although Rublev looks to have a real advantage when it comes to the return of serve.
Both might have ended up with similar percentages when it comes to the break of serve on the hard courts, but Rublev has won more return points and I think he is the superior returner. In their matches against each other on the hard courts, Rublev has broken in 20% of return games played compared with Basilashvili's 17% mark.
It might not look a lot, but it can make all the difference and the early season form certainly suggests Andrey Rublev's move up the World Rankings has yet to come to an end. The Russian has been winning a vastly higher percentage of service points compared with Basilashvili to open the 2020 season and he has also been stronger on the return which will have me backing him to cover the number in this one.
Hubert Hurkacz-Stefanos Tsitipas over 22.5 games: This is another First Round match in Rotterdam which underlines the status of the tournament as an ATP 500 event. Both Hubert Hurkacz and Stefanos Tsitsipas are inside the top thirty in the World Rankings, although both are also returning to competitive tennis for the first time since disappointing Australian Open showings.
Both Hurkacz at 22 years old and Tsitsipas at 21 years old are hoping to be part of the 'Next Gen' group of players that are hoping to challenge the Big Three that have long dominated the ATP Tour. However the Polish player was beaten in the Second Round and Stefanos Tsitsipas was unable to defend the Semi Final points he earned from the tournament twelve months earlier as he was defeated in the Third Round.
That makes this a very important tournament for the two players who will open the evening session in Rotterdam and it is Stefanos Tsitsipas who has the edge having won four of their previous five matches since turning professional. All of those have been on the hard courts, but the last two have been split and Hubert Hurkacz will feel he should have won both of those.
In actual fact the last three have all gone the distance between these players and I don't think it can be ruled out that this match will go the same way. Stefanos Tsitipas has held 90% of his service games played in the last three matches between these players while Hubert Hurkacz has held 87% of his own service games and both players have won over 70% of the points played behind serve which underlines how tough it can be to earn the breaks of serve against each other.
The serve is a huge weapon for both of these players, and, while Stefanos Tsitsipas has a slight advantage on that front, it is Hubert Hurkacz that has the slightly better return numbers. It is no surprise that matches have been as competitive as they have been between these players because neither is a really strong returner and they can serve their way through games to keep themselves in with a chance of winning.
On an indoor hard court I would think Hurkacz and Tsitsipas are able to get through service games efficiently, although the courts here in Rotterdam might not be playing as fast as some others on the Tour. There have been a lot of breaks in the early matches played in Rotterdam, but this is a match up that looks like it could produce a relatively long match.
The last three have all gone that way and I think there is every chance this one will too and so backing the players to combine for more than the total games line set looks to be the play.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominik Koepfer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Laslo Djere - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-1, + 7.06 Units (12 Units Staked, + 58.33% Yield)
In this thread I am going to place the selections from the Tuesday matches, but I will have to update the totals from the Monday matches as soon as the late ones from New York have been completed.
It is likely to be the case for the majority of the week with the tournaments in North and South America scheduling some late starts, but at least I can place the full Tuesday selections in this thread having had the order of play from all five events already being released.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: Winning back to back tournaments in January followed by a run through to the Fourth Round at the Australian Open has helped Andrey Rublev reach a career best Number 15 in the World Rankings. At 22 years old the Russian is not expecting this to be the peak of his career though as he continues to show improvement on the Tour and that is especially the case on the hard courts.
This is a big tournament in Rotterdam this week so there are no easy matches from the off and that is proven by Rublev being paired with Nikoloz Basilashvili in the First Round. The Georgian is still inside the top thirty in the World Rankings and was as high as Number 16 just last year, although it has been a more difficult start to the 2020 season for him than it has for Andrey Rublev.
Nikoloz Basilashvili was beaten in the Second Round at the Australian Open and he is just 2-3 on the hard courts to open 2020. He has finished with a winning record in each of the last three seasons on this surface, but Basilashvili has always produced average numbers which suggests there isn't much margin for error to prevent him from hitting a really poor run.
Draws will make a difference, but this looks to be a very difficult one for Basilashvili who was beaten by Andrey Rublev when these players last met back in August. Nikoloz Basilashvili was 2-0 in the head to head before losing to the Russian in Cincinnati, and that result also means they are now 1-1 on the hard courts against each other, although Rublev looks to have a real advantage when it comes to the return of serve.
Both might have ended up with similar percentages when it comes to the break of serve on the hard courts, but Rublev has won more return points and I think he is the superior returner. In their matches against each other on the hard courts, Rublev has broken in 20% of return games played compared with Basilashvili's 17% mark.
It might not look a lot, but it can make all the difference and the early season form certainly suggests Andrey Rublev's move up the World Rankings has yet to come to an end. The Russian has been winning a vastly higher percentage of service points compared with Basilashvili to open the 2020 season and he has also been stronger on the return which will have me backing him to cover the number in this one.
Hubert Hurkacz-Stefanos Tsitipas over 22.5 games: This is another First Round match in Rotterdam which underlines the status of the tournament as an ATP 500 event. Both Hubert Hurkacz and Stefanos Tsitsipas are inside the top thirty in the World Rankings, although both are also returning to competitive tennis for the first time since disappointing Australian Open showings.
Both Hurkacz at 22 years old and Tsitsipas at 21 years old are hoping to be part of the 'Next Gen' group of players that are hoping to challenge the Big Three that have long dominated the ATP Tour. However the Polish player was beaten in the Second Round and Stefanos Tsitsipas was unable to defend the Semi Final points he earned from the tournament twelve months earlier as he was defeated in the Third Round.
That makes this a very important tournament for the two players who will open the evening session in Rotterdam and it is Stefanos Tsitsipas who has the edge having won four of their previous five matches since turning professional. All of those have been on the hard courts, but the last two have been split and Hubert Hurkacz will feel he should have won both of those.
In actual fact the last three have all gone the distance between these players and I don't think it can be ruled out that this match will go the same way. Stefanos Tsitipas has held 90% of his service games played in the last three matches between these players while Hubert Hurkacz has held 87% of his own service games and both players have won over 70% of the points played behind serve which underlines how tough it can be to earn the breaks of serve against each other.
The serve is a huge weapon for both of these players, and, while Stefanos Tsitsipas has a slight advantage on that front, it is Hubert Hurkacz that has the slightly better return numbers. It is no surprise that matches have been as competitive as they have been between these players because neither is a really strong returner and they can serve their way through games to keep themselves in with a chance of winning.
On an indoor hard court I would think Hurkacz and Tsitsipas are able to get through service games efficiently, although the courts here in Rotterdam might not be playing as fast as some others on the Tour. There have been a lot of breaks in the early matches played in Rotterdam, but this is a match up that looks like it could produce a relatively long match.
The last three have all gone that way and I think there is every chance this one will too and so backing the players to combine for more than the total games line set looks to be the play.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Hubert Hurkacz-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 22.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Dominik Koepfer - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Laslo Djere - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Juan Ignacio Londero - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Petra Martic - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 5-1, + 7.06 Units (12 Units Staked, + 58.33% Yield)
Saturday, 2 February 2019
Tennis Picks 2019 (February 2nd)
I've had a number of matches narrowed down on my shortlist as far as the Tennis Picks have gone this past week, but a few question marks kept popping up around them which meant I have to made any selections since the end of the Australian Open.
On Saturday we have got down to the Semi Final stage at both events being played on the WTA Tour this week and I do feel there are three selections that can be made from the four matches scheduled to be played.
The new format of the Davis Cup means there were a lot of Singles matches scheduled for both Friday and Saturday, but nothing really stood out and I will stick to the Ranking events that are taking place.
I wrote a small piece which covered the end of the Australian Open. I've also updated the 2019 season records and you can read that here.
Alja Tomljanovic - 3.5 games v Tamara Zidansek: This is the third time Alja Tomljanovic and Tamara Zidansek have met over the last nine months and they have split two matches with one win apiece. The single hard court meeting took place in Seoul at the back end of the 2018 season and the Australian was able to recover from a set down to beat Zidansek in three sets.
Both players have been playing some decent tennis to get through to the Semi Final in Thailand this week although Zidansek has been having a few more difficulties coming through the draw.
Alja Tomljanovic and Zidansek have both been able to get a lot out of the return of serve which has given them a chance to win their matches. It is going to be the key to this match too as the player who can get close to the 50% return points won so far this week are most likely going to progress to the Final.
The feeling is that the Australian has the stronger serving numbers and Tomljanovic's first serve is going to give her a chance to at least get away with some cheap points compared with Zidansek.
As long as she can continue producing the big serves at key times Tomljanovic is likely going to be in a position where she has the majority of break points in this match and I will look for the higher Ranked player to work her way through this Semi Final with a win and a cover of the number.
Kiki Bertens v Aryna Sabalenka: This looks to be a fantastic Semi Final between two players who have been much improved on the hard courts over the last several months.
The two players have made their way through to the Semi Final with some decent numbers, but it is Kiki Bertens who looks to be playing the superior tennis.
She may be the only player who has dropped a set on the way through to the Semi Final, but Bertens has been perhaps a little unfortunate to do that. On the other hand Aryna Sabalenka should have dropped at least one set but she has managed to get her tennis together at just the right times to prevent opponents from picking up momentum against her.
The strength of her tennis can't be underestimated, but Bertens is also serving very well in St Petersburg and her game looks pretty suited to the indoor hard courts.
Kiki Bertens is getting more out of her serve in this tournament and she is also showing the superior returning of the two. The Dutchwoman has beaten Sabalenka in both previous meetings between them and I think Bertens can be backed as a very narrow underdog to do the same in this one.
Donna Vekic - 3.5 games v Vera Zvonareva: It is very good to see Vera Zvonareva back on the court and playing some strong tennis as she made her way through to the Semi Final in front of her home fans. Injuries have really blighted the latter stages of her career, but the Russian clearly still loves playing tennis and all three wins earned to reach the Semi Final have been impressive.
The veteran is back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and has dropped a single set to Julia Goerges on her way through the draw, but she is going to be challenged by Donna Vekic in this one.
The 22 year old Vekic has begun to show a little more consistency in her matches and this is a very good chance to reach the Final. A win over Australian Open Finalist Petra Kvitova in the Quarter Final was a very good result for Vekic and she has won six sets in a row since dropping the first one in St Petersburg.
Donna Vekic has been serving very well to get into a position to progress to the Semi Final and it has to be noted that Zvonareva's return has not been as strong as she would have liked. It has been enough to get through this draw so far, but the Vekic serve might be another challenge to what she has faced so far and I can see that putting pressure on the Russian to make sure she is producing her best off her own serve.
The indoor hard courts makes it much easier for servers though and Zvonareva has got a decent pop out of her own on this surface too. However Vekic has been getting enough out of her return to give Zvonareva something to think about and the Croatian has been creating enough break point chances against players this week to think she can do the same here.
Home fans will keep Zvonareva competitive, but Vekic may just have a little too much in each set they play and that could be enough to win and cover.
MY PICKS: Alja Tomljanovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
On Saturday we have got down to the Semi Final stage at both events being played on the WTA Tour this week and I do feel there are three selections that can be made from the four matches scheduled to be played.
The new format of the Davis Cup means there were a lot of Singles matches scheduled for both Friday and Saturday, but nothing really stood out and I will stick to the Ranking events that are taking place.
I wrote a small piece which covered the end of the Australian Open. I've also updated the 2019 season records and you can read that here.
Alja Tomljanovic - 3.5 games v Tamara Zidansek: This is the third time Alja Tomljanovic and Tamara Zidansek have met over the last nine months and they have split two matches with one win apiece. The single hard court meeting took place in Seoul at the back end of the 2018 season and the Australian was able to recover from a set down to beat Zidansek in three sets.
Both players have been playing some decent tennis to get through to the Semi Final in Thailand this week although Zidansek has been having a few more difficulties coming through the draw.
Alja Tomljanovic and Zidansek have both been able to get a lot out of the return of serve which has given them a chance to win their matches. It is going to be the key to this match too as the player who can get close to the 50% return points won so far this week are most likely going to progress to the Final.
The feeling is that the Australian has the stronger serving numbers and Tomljanovic's first serve is going to give her a chance to at least get away with some cheap points compared with Zidansek.
As long as she can continue producing the big serves at key times Tomljanovic is likely going to be in a position where she has the majority of break points in this match and I will look for the higher Ranked player to work her way through this Semi Final with a win and a cover of the number.
Kiki Bertens v Aryna Sabalenka: This looks to be a fantastic Semi Final between two players who have been much improved on the hard courts over the last several months.
The two players have made their way through to the Semi Final with some decent numbers, but it is Kiki Bertens who looks to be playing the superior tennis.
She may be the only player who has dropped a set on the way through to the Semi Final, but Bertens has been perhaps a little unfortunate to do that. On the other hand Aryna Sabalenka should have dropped at least one set but she has managed to get her tennis together at just the right times to prevent opponents from picking up momentum against her.
The strength of her tennis can't be underestimated, but Bertens is also serving very well in St Petersburg and her game looks pretty suited to the indoor hard courts.
Kiki Bertens is getting more out of her serve in this tournament and she is also showing the superior returning of the two. The Dutchwoman has beaten Sabalenka in both previous meetings between them and I think Bertens can be backed as a very narrow underdog to do the same in this one.
Donna Vekic - 3.5 games v Vera Zvonareva: It is very good to see Vera Zvonareva back on the court and playing some strong tennis as she made her way through to the Semi Final in front of her home fans. Injuries have really blighted the latter stages of her career, but the Russian clearly still loves playing tennis and all three wins earned to reach the Semi Final have been impressive.
The veteran is back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and has dropped a single set to Julia Goerges on her way through the draw, but she is going to be challenged by Donna Vekic in this one.
The 22 year old Vekic has begun to show a little more consistency in her matches and this is a very good chance to reach the Final. A win over Australian Open Finalist Petra Kvitova in the Quarter Final was a very good result for Vekic and she has won six sets in a row since dropping the first one in St Petersburg.
Donna Vekic has been serving very well to get into a position to progress to the Semi Final and it has to be noted that Zvonareva's return has not been as strong as she would have liked. It has been enough to get through this draw so far, but the Vekic serve might be another challenge to what she has faced so far and I can see that putting pressure on the Russian to make sure she is producing her best off her own serve.
The indoor hard courts makes it much easier for servers though and Zvonareva has got a decent pop out of her own on this surface too. However Vekic has been getting enough out of her return to give Zvonareva something to think about and the Croatian has been creating enough break point chances against players this week to think she can do the same here.
Home fans will keep Zvonareva competitive, but Vekic may just have a little too much in each set they play and that could be enough to win and cover.
MY PICKS: Alja Tomljanovic - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Donna Vekic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Monday, 28 January 2019
Tennis Picks 2019 (January 28th)
The first Grand Slam of the 2019 Tennis season entered the books on Sunday with Novak Djokovic joining Naomi Osaka as the Singles Champions at the Australian Open.
January winds down over the next few days but the Tour doesn't stop with Davis Cup Qualifiers set to be played next weekend and the WTA Tour moving on to stops in Thailand and Russia. There are some huge names out in both of those events which take place ahead of a break during which the focus will be on the run up to the opening Fed Cup matches.
With Davis Cup ties to come it does mean the ATP Tour has a week break but February is anything other than a quiet month with both the ATP and WTA taking in events in the Middle East as well as the South American Golden Swing.
Below are a few thoughts about the Australian Open and then I will get onto any Tennis Picks I have from the Monday schedule in both tournaments being played on the WTA Tour this week.
Novak Djokovic is the Man to Beat: The World Number 1 looked a little vulnerable in his tough win over Daniil Medvedev in the Fourth Round but by the end of the Australian Open Novak Djokovic was motoring along very nicely.
He has won his third Grand Slam in a row and it is hard to remember at what a low place he was after losing to Marco Cecchinato in the French Open last June. It was so bad for Djokovic back then after a couple of poor losses on the hard courts earlier in the season that he even suggested he would miss the grass court season and return to the Tour when he was feeling in a much stronger place.
Ultimately Djokovic gathered himself, won the title at Wimbledon and has looked by far and away the best player on the Tour since then while improving to fifteen career Grand Slam titles with his win on Sunday. Roger Federer's twenty titles are now within reach with Novak Djokovic likely going into every tournament as the favourite to win it and if he stays healthy I do think there is every chance he is going to be the standard setter for men's tennis when he does decide to hang up his racquet.
The French Open may be the biggest challenge, but the manner of his win over Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open coupled with a victory already secured over Nadal at Roland Garros means the World Number 1 is the man to beat in the season ahead.
Take nothing away from Rafael Nadal who had a great tournament and should be much more match ready by the time the French Open comes around, but Novak Djokovic is returning to his level of three years ago when he was dismantling all in front of him.
When Will the ATP Youngsters be Ready to Win a Grand Slam: Stefanos Tsitsipas took the headlines with a strong run at the Australian Open that ended in the Semi Final, but the defeat to Rafael Nadal underlined how much work is in front of him.
The Greek star may have taken the step on the likes of Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev, but all of those players look like they could have an impact in the year ahead, although I am not sure any of them are truly ready to win a Grand Slam.
Both Khachanov and Medvedev should be able to take the next step once they find a touch more consistency in their game, while Alexander Zverev is in danger of entering Grand Slam draws with a millstone around his neck. It was another disappointing Grand Slam effort from the 21 year old German who has played so well at Masters level and won the ATP World Tour Finals in London in November that suggested he was ready to take the next step at a major.
For me Zverev is still the closest to putting it all together to win a Grand Slam, but I do think he is at least a year away from doing that with the way Nadal and Djokovic are playing.
The Top of the Women's Game is in a Healthy Spot: Over the last twelve months I would have to say that the women's Grand Slam events have perhaps been more exciting than the men's and the top of the WTA Tour looks to be in a healthier spot in years.
Naomi Osaka has broken through as a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and taken over as World Number 1 after a stunning Australian Open, while Petra Kvitova played close to her best tennis. Those two could be in for a real rivalry at both Wimbledon and the US Open to determine the big prizes, but the likes of Simona Halep, Serena Williams, Karolina Pliskova may not be too far behind.
Others can still have strong tournaments in the relatively short periods of a Grand Slam, but I think those five players will be the ones who show the most consistency in 2019 across the surfaces and I would be surprised if the Grand Slam titles are not shared between them.
In recent years too many times the women's game looked to have little consistency at the top which saw players reach World Number 1 without winning Slams, but so many have broken through the mental barrier that I think it can only be good for the sport.
Serena Williams is no Sure Thing to Win Grand Slam Number 24: When Serena Williams won the Australian Open in 2016 it would have been incredibly short odds for her to not only tie Margaret Court's record number of Grand Slam Singles titles won, but for the American to surpass that number.
Pregnancy meant over a year away from the Tour following that success and Serena Williams has reached two Finals and one Quarter Final in her four Grand Slam tournaments played on her return.
In her time away some of the top WTA players have grown and the Serena aura is no longer as strong as it once was with the likes of Simona Halep coming close to beating her here in Australia and Karolina Pliskova getting the job done. Naomi Osaka playing her first Grand Slam Final handled the occasion and all of the drama of the US Open Final fabulously to beat Williams and Angelique Kerber did the same in the Wimbledon Final.
Players are no longer fearing the presence of Serena who is also not helped by a lowly Ranking, by her standards, which means tougher draws to negotiate.
I'm not ruling Serena out from winning another Grand Slam or two, but I do think things have gotten much tougher for her with the improvement in the women's game. While she will likely be the bookmakers favourite to win any tournament she enters in 2019, I think the odds of her even tying Margaret Court's twenty-four Slams is much longer than it has been for a long time.
Andy Murray's Fight to Return to the Tour: If I am being critical I am not sure Andy Murray timed his decision to announce he may retire from tennis just days before the Australian Open began as well as he would have liked. He certainly will wish he could re-word his Press Conference after it was subsequently made clear that the British player was still exploring all avenues to return to the Tour.
An awkward goodbye and good luck video from his peers was played at the end of his titanic First Round defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut, but it is clear we have yet to see the last of him.
I only have respect for everything Murray has achieved in his career up to now and I do think 2019 might be written off by him as he decides to go back in for a second surgery on his hip which may give him a chance to return to the Tour. There are no guarantees in life, but I do think Andy Murray himself believes that match in Melbourne is not the last one he has played as a professional.
The announcement he was thinking about finishing up at Wimbledon in July has to be scrapped- going in for surgery will mean the rest of this season is likely over for Murray and he can then look to make a return in 2020.
The decision on the surgery has yet to be made, but the fighting spirit is still burning bright within Andy Murray and I hope he can end his career in the manner he wants and not enforced to do.
January winds down over the next few days but the Tour doesn't stop with Davis Cup Qualifiers set to be played next weekend and the WTA Tour moving on to stops in Thailand and Russia. There are some huge names out in both of those events which take place ahead of a break during which the focus will be on the run up to the opening Fed Cup matches.
With Davis Cup ties to come it does mean the ATP Tour has a week break but February is anything other than a quiet month with both the ATP and WTA taking in events in the Middle East as well as the South American Golden Swing.
Below are a few thoughts about the Australian Open and then I will get onto any Tennis Picks I have from the Monday schedule in both tournaments being played on the WTA Tour this week.
Novak Djokovic is the Man to Beat: The World Number 1 looked a little vulnerable in his tough win over Daniil Medvedev in the Fourth Round but by the end of the Australian Open Novak Djokovic was motoring along very nicely.
He has won his third Grand Slam in a row and it is hard to remember at what a low place he was after losing to Marco Cecchinato in the French Open last June. It was so bad for Djokovic back then after a couple of poor losses on the hard courts earlier in the season that he even suggested he would miss the grass court season and return to the Tour when he was feeling in a much stronger place.
Ultimately Djokovic gathered himself, won the title at Wimbledon and has looked by far and away the best player on the Tour since then while improving to fifteen career Grand Slam titles with his win on Sunday. Roger Federer's twenty titles are now within reach with Novak Djokovic likely going into every tournament as the favourite to win it and if he stays healthy I do think there is every chance he is going to be the standard setter for men's tennis when he does decide to hang up his racquet.
The French Open may be the biggest challenge, but the manner of his win over Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open coupled with a victory already secured over Nadal at Roland Garros means the World Number 1 is the man to beat in the season ahead.
Take nothing away from Rafael Nadal who had a great tournament and should be much more match ready by the time the French Open comes around, but Novak Djokovic is returning to his level of three years ago when he was dismantling all in front of him.
When Will the ATP Youngsters be Ready to Win a Grand Slam: Stefanos Tsitsipas took the headlines with a strong run at the Australian Open that ended in the Semi Final, but the defeat to Rafael Nadal underlined how much work is in front of him.
The Greek star may have taken the step on the likes of Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev, but all of those players look like they could have an impact in the year ahead, although I am not sure any of them are truly ready to win a Grand Slam.
Both Khachanov and Medvedev should be able to take the next step once they find a touch more consistency in their game, while Alexander Zverev is in danger of entering Grand Slam draws with a millstone around his neck. It was another disappointing Grand Slam effort from the 21 year old German who has played so well at Masters level and won the ATP World Tour Finals in London in November that suggested he was ready to take the next step at a major.
For me Zverev is still the closest to putting it all together to win a Grand Slam, but I do think he is at least a year away from doing that with the way Nadal and Djokovic are playing.
The Top of the Women's Game is in a Healthy Spot: Over the last twelve months I would have to say that the women's Grand Slam events have perhaps been more exciting than the men's and the top of the WTA Tour looks to be in a healthier spot in years.
Naomi Osaka has broken through as a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and taken over as World Number 1 after a stunning Australian Open, while Petra Kvitova played close to her best tennis. Those two could be in for a real rivalry at both Wimbledon and the US Open to determine the big prizes, but the likes of Simona Halep, Serena Williams, Karolina Pliskova may not be too far behind.
Others can still have strong tournaments in the relatively short periods of a Grand Slam, but I think those five players will be the ones who show the most consistency in 2019 across the surfaces and I would be surprised if the Grand Slam titles are not shared between them.
In recent years too many times the women's game looked to have little consistency at the top which saw players reach World Number 1 without winning Slams, but so many have broken through the mental barrier that I think it can only be good for the sport.
Serena Williams is no Sure Thing to Win Grand Slam Number 24: When Serena Williams won the Australian Open in 2016 it would have been incredibly short odds for her to not only tie Margaret Court's record number of Grand Slam Singles titles won, but for the American to surpass that number.
Pregnancy meant over a year away from the Tour following that success and Serena Williams has reached two Finals and one Quarter Final in her four Grand Slam tournaments played on her return.
In her time away some of the top WTA players have grown and the Serena aura is no longer as strong as it once was with the likes of Simona Halep coming close to beating her here in Australia and Karolina Pliskova getting the job done. Naomi Osaka playing her first Grand Slam Final handled the occasion and all of the drama of the US Open Final fabulously to beat Williams and Angelique Kerber did the same in the Wimbledon Final.
Players are no longer fearing the presence of Serena who is also not helped by a lowly Ranking, by her standards, which means tougher draws to negotiate.
I'm not ruling Serena out from winning another Grand Slam or two, but I do think things have gotten much tougher for her with the improvement in the women's game. While she will likely be the bookmakers favourite to win any tournament she enters in 2019, I think the odds of her even tying Margaret Court's twenty-four Slams is much longer than it has been for a long time.
Andy Murray's Fight to Return to the Tour: If I am being critical I am not sure Andy Murray timed his decision to announce he may retire from tennis just days before the Australian Open began as well as he would have liked. He certainly will wish he could re-word his Press Conference after it was subsequently made clear that the British player was still exploring all avenues to return to the Tour.
An awkward goodbye and good luck video from his peers was played at the end of his titanic First Round defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut, but it is clear we have yet to see the last of him.
I only have respect for everything Murray has achieved in his career up to now and I do think 2019 might be written off by him as he decides to go back in for a second surgery on his hip which may give him a chance to return to the Tour. There are no guarantees in life, but I do think Andy Murray himself believes that match in Melbourne is not the last one he has played as a professional.
The announcement he was thinking about finishing up at Wimbledon in July has to be scrapped- going in for surgery will mean the rest of this season is likely over for Murray and he can then look to make a return in 2020.
The decision on the surgery has yet to be made, but the fighting spirit is still burning bright within Andy Murray and I hope he can end his career in the manner he wants and not enforced to do.
Tennis Picks 2019
The Australian Open added to a very good start for the Tennis Picks in 2019 with plenty of profits to add to the first month of the season.
Twelve months ago it was a difficult tournament, but the last six months of the Tennis Picks in 2018 ensured that season finished with a profit and 2019 has begun in a very promising way.
This week the WTA Tour moves to Hua Hin in Thailand and St Petersburg in Russia. At the end of the week the Davis Cup Finals Qualifying ties are played over Friday and Saturday with the new format of that competition set to go for the 2019 season and I should have some Picks for most of the days this week.
Next week the ATP Tour returns with three stops on the calendar as we get to see some indoor tennis and also the start of the Golden Swing in South America.
MY PICKS:
Season 2019: + 26.16 Units (213 Units Staked, + 12.28% Yield)
MY PICKS:
Season 2019: + 26.16 Units (213 Units Staked, + 12.28% Yield)
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