The Australian Open put a stamp on the first month of the 2020 Tennis season and if it is any indication of what we are going to see over the next eleven months then it is more of the same from the last couple of years.
The Women's Tour is Wide Open- all credit has to be given to Sofia Kenin for winning her maiden Grand Slam title and becoming the tenth different name to win the last twelve Women's Grand Slam titles.
However it is more of an indication that a void remains at the very top of the Women's game since Serena Williams has been unable to return to the heights she reached back in 2017 before having a baby. The American is no longer someone who inspires dread amongst the rest of the Tour, but there isn't one clear name leading the way.
Over the last couple of years we have seen multiple Slam Champions and a consistent changing of the Number 1 World Ranking, while I don't think any tournament going forward will have a consensus pick amongst the fans out there.
Sofia Kenin is going to have to show she can compete with the label of being a Slam Champion, but her overall numbers are not leaping off the page to think she will become the top player on the Tour on a consistent basis. At this moment I would suggest there are a dozen players out there who are capable of going on a two week hot streak which can see them win a Grand Slam and I do think there are many who are going to regret not taking advantage of the current vacuum at the very top of the WTA Tour.
The clay court and grass court seasons are perhaps a little more specialist, but Ashleigh Barty won in Paris and Simona Halep won in London which shows anyone is going to be capable.
Will Serena Williams catch Margaret Court let alone Overtake her?- When Serena Williams won her twenty-third Singles Grand Slam title in Australia in 2017 it would have been very short odds that she would end her career with more than the twenty-four titles Margaret Court picked up.
Of course at that time we did not know that Williams was expecting her first child, but even then most thought she would return to the Tour and get back to her dominating ways.
It was only a matter of time before she would match Court's record and then overtake it...
However things have not worked out as planned and I do think Serena Williams has lost some of the aura which made it so difficult for players to put her away. In reality she should have perhaps already overtaken Court having lost four Grand Slam Finals since returning and all of those as the clear favourite on the day.
All four losses have come at Wimbledon (twice) and the US Open (twice) so I do think it is premature to rule Williams out from winning at least one more Grand Slam. Even with that in mind you have to wonder if doubts are beginning to enter her game having found someone a little too good on the day.
I would still hazard a guess that Serena Williams will go into each Grand Slam as one of the top two favourites before a ball has been hit, but what was once almost impossible to think otherwise is becoming more and more realistic in each passing month. And that is that the Tennis world will not see Serena Williams overtake Margaret Court's Grand Slam Singles record.
The Next Gen on the ATP are not Quite There- Novak Djokovic recovered from 2-1 down in the Australian Open Final to make sure that for the thirteenth time in a row either himself, Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal was standing victorious at the end of a Grand Slam tournament.
It means no one under the age of 31 years old has a Grand Slam title to their name, although Daniil Medvedev and Dominic Thiem both pushed members of the 'Big Three' to five sets at the US Open and in Melbourne this past week.
That is a stunning issue for players on the ATP Tour and I do think Men's tennis is going to go through something similar to Women's Tennis when the likes of Nadal, Federer and Djokovic slip.
Like Serena Williams, I think those three will always be amongst the favourites as I can't see any of them allowing themselves to hang around on the Tour when they know they can't win Grand Slam titles. And like the Women's game, it may mean we get into a position of seeing multiple different names winning Grand Slam titles as they get hot for two weeks in what is going to be a largely inconsistent performances from the top names.
Alexander Zverev was another who made a breakthrough by reaching a maiden Semi Final so will lead the challenge from the younger players along with Dominic Thiem when we head to Paris, but it feels those players are not quite ready in the best of five set situation. There are some quality names coming up on the Tour, but Men's Tennis needs one of them to break this run of the 'Big Three' while those are still competing at the top of their game.
It'll make a star of that player and also show the rest of the 'Next Gen' that their time is now.
The Three Greatest Men's Players of All Time- I have no doubt we are watching a blessed era when the three best Men's players of all time are competing and pushing each other along at the same time.
Novak Djokovic's eighth win in Melbourne means he has moved to seventeen overall Grand Slam titles and only trails Rafael Nadal by two Slams and Roger Federer by three Slams.
I do think the player that finishes with the most at the end of their career will have a real argument for being the best of All Time and it is stunning to think that only twenty years ago Pete Sampras winning fourteen Slams was considered unthinkable.
Some will say there isn't the depth of competition which has aided the 'Big Three' but I would take all of them over the greats of the past.
Rafael Nadal is without a doubt the best clay court player that has performed, while Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer have strong records in Melbourne and London respectively.
Where I would find it most interesting is if these three players could be taken at their very best and compete with each other at the US Open- Federer has five Slam titles there, Nadal four and Djokovic three and it might be the surface where the true 'best' would be determined.
Right now I am leaning towards Novak Djokovic- I think he has more time to surpass the total Roger Federer has and he is a threat at three of the Slams where Rafael Nadal has long had his issues in Australia and in Great Britain.
The Serb will turn 33 years old in May, but I think he has the best chances of winning multiple Slams before the 'Next Gen' begin to not only get closer, but start to take some of those titles away too.
No matter which may you lean, you have to be grateful for the greatness we have been given over the last twenty years as I don't believe we will see a time like this again.
So the first Tennis Picks of the season are in the books at the end of the Australian Open and it turned out to be a very good start to the 2020 year, although not as strong as last season.
In fact I ended with about ten units fewer than the 2019 Australian Open, although that was an exceptional one for the Tennis Picks and the 2020 tournament was simply a strong one.
Novak Djokovic's win proved to be key with the five pre-tournament units recommended on him at odds against, while the daily picks recovered from being in a ten unit hole to finish with a strong profit too over the two weeks in Melbourne.
I have a couple of Tennis Picks from the ATP Cordoba First Round matches to be played on Tuesday and underneath that I have updated the weekly totals as well as the season totals.
Monday proved to be a difficult day with the three selections all losing, but there is time to bounce back in a long week.
Roberto Carballas Baena - 2.5 games v Pedro Martinez: The Golden Swing has begun in South America and this is the first tournament in the run over the next month.
For these two Spaniards it is the first clay court event they are taking in during the 2020 season and both Roberto Carballas Baena and Pedro Martinez have to be happy that they are back on their favourite surface.
Pedro Martinez may have a slight edge as he had to come through a couple of Qualifiers to reach the main draw and so has some feel for the surface again. On the other side his compatriot will play his first clay court match of the 2020 season, but I expect Carballas Baena to be relatively comfortable quite quickly on a surface on which he would have played the majority of his tennis throughout his life.
It is the older Spaniard who has had the better of the numbers on the clay courts, but Martinez is still only 22 years old and showing signs of improving. The level of competition will be increasing for Martinez if he wants to make a career for himself on the main ATP Tour and much is going to depend on how much he can get out of his serve.
I am not going to read too much into the two wins in the Qualifiers when Pedro Martinez was serving well as he has been winning 58% of his service points on this surface in each of the last two seasons. Those have come below the main ATP level too and I would expect Roberto Carballas Baena to challenge that side of his game as he has when beating him four times in a row on the clay since 2018.
Roberto Carballas Baena has had the more reliable serve and similar return numbers to Pedro Martinez in the last couple of years on the clay courts. That has shown up in the head to head where Carballas Baena has held 82% of his service games played against Martinez compared with 52% for the latter.
There should be breaks of serve in the match, but I think Roberto Carballas Baena is the stronger clay court player at this time and should be able to settle into the match before pulling away for the win.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 games v Facundo Bagnis: Two southpaws meet in the First Round of the tournament being played in Cordoba and Albert Ramos-Vinolas is a pretty big favourite to make it through to the Second Round.
The first match back on the clay courts might be the biggest factor going against Ramos-Vinolas in this one, especially as he is playing someone who is entering his second tournament on the surface.
Last week Facundo Bagnis reached the Quarter Final of a Challenger event and he has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw here. He is very comfortable on the clay courts and spends the majority of his time on the surface, but his numbers have long taken a hit when he has stepped up to take on the main ATP Tour.
That has been the case for his opponent in recent times too, but Ramos-Vinolas has also made hay at the Challenger level. The Spaniard is off a strong season on the clay courts as he got back to basics following a tough year on the main ATP Tour in 2018, and the Spaniard also has a long history of wins over Bagnis which should give him an edge.
Albert Ramos-Vinolas has won all three previous matches against the Argentinian he faces on Tuesday and he has not lot more than four games in any of those wins. The first two came early in their careers, but the most recent was last year in Sao Paulo and I do think the head to head is relevant with that in mind.
Where Albert Ramos-Vinolas has been strong behind serve, Facundo Bagnis has struggled massively to the point where he has held less than 50% of the service games he has played against the Spaniard. At the same time he has barely dented the Ramos-Vinolas serve and I do think it is going to be difficult for things to change drastically even when accounting for the fact that Ramos-Vinolas is playing his first clay court match of the season.
This time last year Ramos-Vinolas did need three sets to win his opener in Cordoba, but this has been a good match up for him. The home support may be with Facundo Bagnis, but I think Albert Ramos-Vinolas is too good for him on the day and can cover this mark.
MY PICKS: Roberto Carballas Baena - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-3, - 6 Units (6 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2020: + 13.78 Units (149 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Australian Open Recap. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Australian Open Recap. Show all posts
Tuesday, 4 February 2020
Monday, 28 January 2019
Tennis Picks 2019 (January 28th)
The first Grand Slam of the 2019 Tennis season entered the books on Sunday with Novak Djokovic joining Naomi Osaka as the Singles Champions at the Australian Open.
January winds down over the next few days but the Tour doesn't stop with Davis Cup Qualifiers set to be played next weekend and the WTA Tour moving on to stops in Thailand and Russia. There are some huge names out in both of those events which take place ahead of a break during which the focus will be on the run up to the opening Fed Cup matches.
With Davis Cup ties to come it does mean the ATP Tour has a week break but February is anything other than a quiet month with both the ATP and WTA taking in events in the Middle East as well as the South American Golden Swing.
Below are a few thoughts about the Australian Open and then I will get onto any Tennis Picks I have from the Monday schedule in both tournaments being played on the WTA Tour this week.
Novak Djokovic is the Man to Beat: The World Number 1 looked a little vulnerable in his tough win over Daniil Medvedev in the Fourth Round but by the end of the Australian Open Novak Djokovic was motoring along very nicely.
He has won his third Grand Slam in a row and it is hard to remember at what a low place he was after losing to Marco Cecchinato in the French Open last June. It was so bad for Djokovic back then after a couple of poor losses on the hard courts earlier in the season that he even suggested he would miss the grass court season and return to the Tour when he was feeling in a much stronger place.
Ultimately Djokovic gathered himself, won the title at Wimbledon and has looked by far and away the best player on the Tour since then while improving to fifteen career Grand Slam titles with his win on Sunday. Roger Federer's twenty titles are now within reach with Novak Djokovic likely going into every tournament as the favourite to win it and if he stays healthy I do think there is every chance he is going to be the standard setter for men's tennis when he does decide to hang up his racquet.
The French Open may be the biggest challenge, but the manner of his win over Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open coupled with a victory already secured over Nadal at Roland Garros means the World Number 1 is the man to beat in the season ahead.
Take nothing away from Rafael Nadal who had a great tournament and should be much more match ready by the time the French Open comes around, but Novak Djokovic is returning to his level of three years ago when he was dismantling all in front of him.
When Will the ATP Youngsters be Ready to Win a Grand Slam: Stefanos Tsitsipas took the headlines with a strong run at the Australian Open that ended in the Semi Final, but the defeat to Rafael Nadal underlined how much work is in front of him.
The Greek star may have taken the step on the likes of Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev, but all of those players look like they could have an impact in the year ahead, although I am not sure any of them are truly ready to win a Grand Slam.
Both Khachanov and Medvedev should be able to take the next step once they find a touch more consistency in their game, while Alexander Zverev is in danger of entering Grand Slam draws with a millstone around his neck. It was another disappointing Grand Slam effort from the 21 year old German who has played so well at Masters level and won the ATP World Tour Finals in London in November that suggested he was ready to take the next step at a major.
For me Zverev is still the closest to putting it all together to win a Grand Slam, but I do think he is at least a year away from doing that with the way Nadal and Djokovic are playing.
The Top of the Women's Game is in a Healthy Spot: Over the last twelve months I would have to say that the women's Grand Slam events have perhaps been more exciting than the men's and the top of the WTA Tour looks to be in a healthier spot in years.
Naomi Osaka has broken through as a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and taken over as World Number 1 after a stunning Australian Open, while Petra Kvitova played close to her best tennis. Those two could be in for a real rivalry at both Wimbledon and the US Open to determine the big prizes, but the likes of Simona Halep, Serena Williams, Karolina Pliskova may not be too far behind.
Others can still have strong tournaments in the relatively short periods of a Grand Slam, but I think those five players will be the ones who show the most consistency in 2019 across the surfaces and I would be surprised if the Grand Slam titles are not shared between them.
In recent years too many times the women's game looked to have little consistency at the top which saw players reach World Number 1 without winning Slams, but so many have broken through the mental barrier that I think it can only be good for the sport.
Serena Williams is no Sure Thing to Win Grand Slam Number 24: When Serena Williams won the Australian Open in 2016 it would have been incredibly short odds for her to not only tie Margaret Court's record number of Grand Slam Singles titles won, but for the American to surpass that number.
Pregnancy meant over a year away from the Tour following that success and Serena Williams has reached two Finals and one Quarter Final in her four Grand Slam tournaments played on her return.
In her time away some of the top WTA players have grown and the Serena aura is no longer as strong as it once was with the likes of Simona Halep coming close to beating her here in Australia and Karolina Pliskova getting the job done. Naomi Osaka playing her first Grand Slam Final handled the occasion and all of the drama of the US Open Final fabulously to beat Williams and Angelique Kerber did the same in the Wimbledon Final.
Players are no longer fearing the presence of Serena who is also not helped by a lowly Ranking, by her standards, which means tougher draws to negotiate.
I'm not ruling Serena out from winning another Grand Slam or two, but I do think things have gotten much tougher for her with the improvement in the women's game. While she will likely be the bookmakers favourite to win any tournament she enters in 2019, I think the odds of her even tying Margaret Court's twenty-four Slams is much longer than it has been for a long time.
Andy Murray's Fight to Return to the Tour: If I am being critical I am not sure Andy Murray timed his decision to announce he may retire from tennis just days before the Australian Open began as well as he would have liked. He certainly will wish he could re-word his Press Conference after it was subsequently made clear that the British player was still exploring all avenues to return to the Tour.
An awkward goodbye and good luck video from his peers was played at the end of his titanic First Round defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut, but it is clear we have yet to see the last of him.
I only have respect for everything Murray has achieved in his career up to now and I do think 2019 might be written off by him as he decides to go back in for a second surgery on his hip which may give him a chance to return to the Tour. There are no guarantees in life, but I do think Andy Murray himself believes that match in Melbourne is not the last one he has played as a professional.
The announcement he was thinking about finishing up at Wimbledon in July has to be scrapped- going in for surgery will mean the rest of this season is likely over for Murray and he can then look to make a return in 2020.
The decision on the surgery has yet to be made, but the fighting spirit is still burning bright within Andy Murray and I hope he can end his career in the manner he wants and not enforced to do.
January winds down over the next few days but the Tour doesn't stop with Davis Cup Qualifiers set to be played next weekend and the WTA Tour moving on to stops in Thailand and Russia. There are some huge names out in both of those events which take place ahead of a break during which the focus will be on the run up to the opening Fed Cup matches.
With Davis Cup ties to come it does mean the ATP Tour has a week break but February is anything other than a quiet month with both the ATP and WTA taking in events in the Middle East as well as the South American Golden Swing.
Below are a few thoughts about the Australian Open and then I will get onto any Tennis Picks I have from the Monday schedule in both tournaments being played on the WTA Tour this week.
Novak Djokovic is the Man to Beat: The World Number 1 looked a little vulnerable in his tough win over Daniil Medvedev in the Fourth Round but by the end of the Australian Open Novak Djokovic was motoring along very nicely.
He has won his third Grand Slam in a row and it is hard to remember at what a low place he was after losing to Marco Cecchinato in the French Open last June. It was so bad for Djokovic back then after a couple of poor losses on the hard courts earlier in the season that he even suggested he would miss the grass court season and return to the Tour when he was feeling in a much stronger place.
Ultimately Djokovic gathered himself, won the title at Wimbledon and has looked by far and away the best player on the Tour since then while improving to fifteen career Grand Slam titles with his win on Sunday. Roger Federer's twenty titles are now within reach with Novak Djokovic likely going into every tournament as the favourite to win it and if he stays healthy I do think there is every chance he is going to be the standard setter for men's tennis when he does decide to hang up his racquet.
The French Open may be the biggest challenge, but the manner of his win over Rafael Nadal at the Australian Open coupled with a victory already secured over Nadal at Roland Garros means the World Number 1 is the man to beat in the season ahead.
Take nothing away from Rafael Nadal who had a great tournament and should be much more match ready by the time the French Open comes around, but Novak Djokovic is returning to his level of three years ago when he was dismantling all in front of him.
When Will the ATP Youngsters be Ready to Win a Grand Slam: Stefanos Tsitsipas took the headlines with a strong run at the Australian Open that ended in the Semi Final, but the defeat to Rafael Nadal underlined how much work is in front of him.
The Greek star may have taken the step on the likes of Alexander Zverev, Karen Khachanov and Daniil Medvedev, but all of those players look like they could have an impact in the year ahead, although I am not sure any of them are truly ready to win a Grand Slam.
Both Khachanov and Medvedev should be able to take the next step once they find a touch more consistency in their game, while Alexander Zverev is in danger of entering Grand Slam draws with a millstone around his neck. It was another disappointing Grand Slam effort from the 21 year old German who has played so well at Masters level and won the ATP World Tour Finals in London in November that suggested he was ready to take the next step at a major.
For me Zverev is still the closest to putting it all together to win a Grand Slam, but I do think he is at least a year away from doing that with the way Nadal and Djokovic are playing.
The Top of the Women's Game is in a Healthy Spot: Over the last twelve months I would have to say that the women's Grand Slam events have perhaps been more exciting than the men's and the top of the WTA Tour looks to be in a healthier spot in years.
Naomi Osaka has broken through as a multiple time Grand Slam Champion and taken over as World Number 1 after a stunning Australian Open, while Petra Kvitova played close to her best tennis. Those two could be in for a real rivalry at both Wimbledon and the US Open to determine the big prizes, but the likes of Simona Halep, Serena Williams, Karolina Pliskova may not be too far behind.
Others can still have strong tournaments in the relatively short periods of a Grand Slam, but I think those five players will be the ones who show the most consistency in 2019 across the surfaces and I would be surprised if the Grand Slam titles are not shared between them.
In recent years too many times the women's game looked to have little consistency at the top which saw players reach World Number 1 without winning Slams, but so many have broken through the mental barrier that I think it can only be good for the sport.
Serena Williams is no Sure Thing to Win Grand Slam Number 24: When Serena Williams won the Australian Open in 2016 it would have been incredibly short odds for her to not only tie Margaret Court's record number of Grand Slam Singles titles won, but for the American to surpass that number.
Pregnancy meant over a year away from the Tour following that success and Serena Williams has reached two Finals and one Quarter Final in her four Grand Slam tournaments played on her return.
In her time away some of the top WTA players have grown and the Serena aura is no longer as strong as it once was with the likes of Simona Halep coming close to beating her here in Australia and Karolina Pliskova getting the job done. Naomi Osaka playing her first Grand Slam Final handled the occasion and all of the drama of the US Open Final fabulously to beat Williams and Angelique Kerber did the same in the Wimbledon Final.
Players are no longer fearing the presence of Serena who is also not helped by a lowly Ranking, by her standards, which means tougher draws to negotiate.
I'm not ruling Serena out from winning another Grand Slam or two, but I do think things have gotten much tougher for her with the improvement in the women's game. While she will likely be the bookmakers favourite to win any tournament she enters in 2019, I think the odds of her even tying Margaret Court's twenty-four Slams is much longer than it has been for a long time.
Andy Murray's Fight to Return to the Tour: If I am being critical I am not sure Andy Murray timed his decision to announce he may retire from tennis just days before the Australian Open began as well as he would have liked. He certainly will wish he could re-word his Press Conference after it was subsequently made clear that the British player was still exploring all avenues to return to the Tour.
An awkward goodbye and good luck video from his peers was played at the end of his titanic First Round defeat to Roberto Bautista Agut, but it is clear we have yet to see the last of him.
I only have respect for everything Murray has achieved in his career up to now and I do think 2019 might be written off by him as he decides to go back in for a second surgery on his hip which may give him a chance to return to the Tour. There are no guarantees in life, but I do think Andy Murray himself believes that match in Melbourne is not the last one he has played as a professional.
The announcement he was thinking about finishing up at Wimbledon in July has to be scrapped- going in for surgery will mean the rest of this season is likely over for Murray and he can then look to make a return in 2020.
The decision on the surgery has yet to be made, but the fighting spirit is still burning bright within Andy Murray and I hope he can end his career in the manner he wants and not enforced to do.
Tennis Picks 2019
The Australian Open added to a very good start for the Tennis Picks in 2019 with plenty of profits to add to the first month of the season.
Twelve months ago it was a difficult tournament, but the last six months of the Tennis Picks in 2018 ensured that season finished with a profit and 2019 has begun in a very promising way.
This week the WTA Tour moves to Hua Hin in Thailand and St Petersburg in Russia. At the end of the week the Davis Cup Finals Qualifying ties are played over Friday and Saturday with the new format of that competition set to go for the 2019 season and I should have some Picks for most of the days this week.
Next week the ATP Tour returns with three stops on the calendar as we get to see some indoor tennis and also the start of the Golden Swing in South America.
MY PICKS:
Season 2019: + 26.16 Units (213 Units Staked, + 12.28% Yield)
MY PICKS:
Season 2019: + 26.16 Units (213 Units Staked, + 12.28% Yield)
Sunday, 3 February 2013
Australian Open 2013 Recap
The first Grand Slam of the season finished less than a week ago and it has already given us a taste of what is to come as far as I am concerned. Some things haven't changed in the last twelve months with both the defending Champions retaining their titles, but there were some breakthrough performances and it does whet the appetite for the coming season.
In terms of the tournament from the picks point of view, it was the worst Grand Slam performance since this blog has been started and am hoping that isn't the start of things to come. It could have been a lot worse if it hadn't been for the final few days of the tournament with winning picks from both the Women's and Men's Finals.
Andy Murray is the second best player in the World, but winning another Grand Slam won't come easy to him: I said at the US Open that I wouldn't have expected Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic if he had played the second Semi Final as the scheduling at that Grand Slam for the Men's tournament have always put the winner of the second Semi Final in a tough spot.
Before I go on, I don't want anyone thinking I don't like Andy Murray... In fact, I am a big fan of the Scot.
But I do think there is something still not quite right with his performances to add another Grand Slam to his name, especially not with the upcoming return of Rafael Nadal.
The problem I have with Murray is that out of the top four players, he is the one that seems to have a really 'low' period in the big matches, a period when he seems to fall away. While Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer are a lot more consistent with their level, Murray does seem to lapse and this why some of his Grand Slam defeats haven't been the heartbreaking losses that the likes of Federer have suffered, but more a fall away.
I know some will blame his body breaking down at a critical moment, but I am not buying that, nor am I buying the fact that he had to play the second Semi Final as there is still a day rest and he had been in a 'short' five-setter.
As I say, Murray is still the second best player in the World in my opinion, and his lapses won't affect him in the majority of tournaments he plays, but winning a Grand Slam with that still happening is unlikely to happen twice, barring real scheduling help.
New breed of players on the WTA Tour: The Woman's game has evolved in recent years into bringing a lot of power onto the Tour and that has meant that players are making their big breakthrough as they get older and the teenage sensations are likely a thing of the past.
However, the performances of Heather Watson, Laura Robson and Sloane Stephens has shown that there are some very good players coming up as the Woman's game is being replenished. The veterans like Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams remain at the top of the game, while Na Li had another sensational tournament, but the youngsters are starting to make inroads.
The big question is which of the trio I mentioned is going to win a Grand Slam tournament? I think Stephens and Robson will find a way to win one of the Majors, but I am not sure Heather Watson will be able to avoid playing someone that will eventually be strong enough and consistent enough to knock her over before she completes a Major win.
If I was going to compare the players with some of the top ones in the World, I would say Stephens is a little like Victoria Azarenka (I don't mean she will definitely reach that level, but her game is similar), Robson reminds me of Petra Kvitova and Watson could perhaps have a career like Caroline Wozniacki.
However, these players are young and development is still the key for them.
Serena Williams is still the best female player on Tour, but can be vulnerable in Grand Slam tournaments: Over the last 14 months, Serena Williams has been pretty much the favourite for every Grand Slam tournament she has played and rightly so.
However, the Australian Open proved yet again that Serena plays one poor match a tournament and thus is likely going to be too short for the majority of occasions when she is priced at less than 2.20 to win a tournament.
Over the last 5 Grand Slams, Ekaterina Makarova, Virginie Razzano and now Sloane Stephens have been able to do enough to knock out Serena, while Jie Zheng pushed her all the way at Wimbledon last year.
That should be a bit of caution for those that like the American in the outright markets going forward, particularly at her worst Major which is the French Open.
Australian Open Final: 18-26, - 8.59 Units (87 Units Staked, - 9.87% Yield)
Season 2013: - 2.62 Units (133 Units Staked, - 1.97% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
In terms of the tournament from the picks point of view, it was the worst Grand Slam performance since this blog has been started and am hoping that isn't the start of things to come. It could have been a lot worse if it hadn't been for the final few days of the tournament with winning picks from both the Women's and Men's Finals.
Andy Murray is the second best player in the World, but winning another Grand Slam won't come easy to him: I said at the US Open that I wouldn't have expected Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic if he had played the second Semi Final as the scheduling at that Grand Slam for the Men's tournament have always put the winner of the second Semi Final in a tough spot.
Before I go on, I don't want anyone thinking I don't like Andy Murray... In fact, I am a big fan of the Scot.
But I do think there is something still not quite right with his performances to add another Grand Slam to his name, especially not with the upcoming return of Rafael Nadal.
The problem I have with Murray is that out of the top four players, he is the one that seems to have a really 'low' period in the big matches, a period when he seems to fall away. While Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer are a lot more consistent with their level, Murray does seem to lapse and this why some of his Grand Slam defeats haven't been the heartbreaking losses that the likes of Federer have suffered, but more a fall away.
I know some will blame his body breaking down at a critical moment, but I am not buying that, nor am I buying the fact that he had to play the second Semi Final as there is still a day rest and he had been in a 'short' five-setter.
As I say, Murray is still the second best player in the World in my opinion, and his lapses won't affect him in the majority of tournaments he plays, but winning a Grand Slam with that still happening is unlikely to happen twice, barring real scheduling help.
New breed of players on the WTA Tour: The Woman's game has evolved in recent years into bringing a lot of power onto the Tour and that has meant that players are making their big breakthrough as they get older and the teenage sensations are likely a thing of the past.
However, the performances of Heather Watson, Laura Robson and Sloane Stephens has shown that there are some very good players coming up as the Woman's game is being replenished. The veterans like Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams remain at the top of the game, while Na Li had another sensational tournament, but the youngsters are starting to make inroads.
The big question is which of the trio I mentioned is going to win a Grand Slam tournament? I think Stephens and Robson will find a way to win one of the Majors, but I am not sure Heather Watson will be able to avoid playing someone that will eventually be strong enough and consistent enough to knock her over before she completes a Major win.
If I was going to compare the players with some of the top ones in the World, I would say Stephens is a little like Victoria Azarenka (I don't mean she will definitely reach that level, but her game is similar), Robson reminds me of Petra Kvitova and Watson could perhaps have a career like Caroline Wozniacki.
However, these players are young and development is still the key for them.
Serena Williams is still the best female player on Tour, but can be vulnerable in Grand Slam tournaments: Over the last 14 months, Serena Williams has been pretty much the favourite for every Grand Slam tournament she has played and rightly so.
However, the Australian Open proved yet again that Serena plays one poor match a tournament and thus is likely going to be too short for the majority of occasions when she is priced at less than 2.20 to win a tournament.
Over the last 5 Grand Slams, Ekaterina Makarova, Virginie Razzano and now Sloane Stephens have been able to do enough to knock out Serena, while Jie Zheng pushed her all the way at Wimbledon last year.
That should be a bit of caution for those that like the American in the outright markets going forward, particularly at her worst Major which is the French Open.
Australian Open Final: 18-26, - 8.59 Units (87 Units Staked, - 9.87% Yield)
Season 2013: - 2.62 Units (133 Units Staked, - 1.97% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Wednesday, 1 February 2012
Australian Open 2012 Recap
So the first Grand Slam of the new season is over and I have finally found a moment to get a recap together of the first serious tournament and a few thoughts I had from the event.
I was going to do this on Sunday evening, immediately after the tournament was concluded, but the six hour Final that I covered on the blog meant I was extremely tired and didn't really fancy getting back on the computer in the evening... Plus I met someone quite fantastic while having a drink after the tournament was concluded and didn't get home a lot later than I had planned!
Here I will present a few of my thoughts from the Australian Open and a recap of how the picks went:
Australian Open 2012 Thoughts
1) Was it really the greatest Men's Final ever?: Now I heard a few of the so-called 'experts' describe this as the greatest Final ever at Grand Slam level, but I tend to think that is the usual sensationalist way of reporting that we have seen creep into all of the sporting events around the globe.
The first set was not high on quality, while it was one way traffic for Novak Djokovic in sets two and three, all the way through to the middle of set four... It would not have been a surprise if Djokovic had won this in four sets when leading 4-3, 40-0* on Rafael Nadal's serve in that fourth set.
Granted Nadal raised his level from that moment on and there were some wonderful winners from that point on, but this was not a better level of tennis throughout than the Wimbledon Finals that were competed by Roger Federer and Nadal in 2008 and 2009.
This Final was truly gripping theatre, and the twists and turns in the final set and a half were exciting to watch, but it was not the greatest Final ever and I have a few matches that I rate higher in terms of overall quality throughout the five sets competed.
As we see with Lionel Messi, people are very quick to label the last thing they have seen as the 'greatest of all time', but this match, while excellent, doesn't deserve those plaudits.
2) Will anyone outside of the top 4 in the Men's game win a Grand Slam this season?: I find it hard to imagine that anyone will break the dominance of the top 4 Men in the World Rankings as anyone to do so will have to beat at least two of these players, and potentially three of the players, in a row in a best of five set match and I cannot see that happening at this moment in time.
There are some really dangerous players around like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro in the Men's game, as well as a soon to be returning Robin Soderling, but I think they all have too many mental hurdles to overcome, while the top 4 players are playing at a level higher than the rest of the Men in the draw.
At the moment, it is beginning to be tough to look beyond Novak Djokovic as the favourite to win every Grand Slam, while I still think Roger Federer is capable of winning one at either Wimbledon or the US Open.
I think Andy Murray also showed enough to suggest he is not to far away from winning his maiden Grand Slam title, but he is another player that could find it very tough beating two of the others in back to back matches in a best of five set... However, his ranking means he could potentially have to play none of the other top 4 until a Final if he gets a bit of fortune, and that is something that is unlikely to happen for someone outside of the top 4.
I do think the player most likely to break the dominance of the top 4 players to win a Grand Slam this season is likely to be the player that last won a Grand Slam outside of these players and that is Juan Martin Del Potro- I think the Argentinian is not too far from his best, but he still has some levels to find and I think he could be the biggest threat at the US Open and not before then.
3) This is a big couple of months for Bernard Tomic: I think Bernard Tomic has a big couple of months ahead as he is now going to be on a part of the tour where is game is not exactly suited for, as we get towards the clay court swing, and it will be interesting as to how the Australian youngster copes with a different type of pressure he will be facing.
Players will want to put him in his place after all the attention his run at the Australian Open generated for him, and it will be interesting to see how he copes in 'lesser' tournaments than his home Grand Slam.
He doesn't have too many points to defend in the next 3-4 months, and, if he plays how he can, he could be a seeded player by the time the next couple of Grand Slams come up later this year.
4) Roger Federer wants to be World Number 1 again, but breaking the Top 2 could be just as important: Now we heard from Roger Federer before the Australian Open, openly stating that he WANTS the World Number 1 position back and that can only be good news for his fans as he clearly feels he is still able to compete with the best players.
However, I think breaking the top 2 could be just as important for him if he wants to win a Grand Slam again, although he could still require a bit of luck on his side.
Now I am not saying he cannot beat Rafael Nadal full stop, but I would not fancy his chances too much on any surface other than perhaps at the US Open which play the fastest of the surfaces at Grand Slam level... Breaking the top 2 apart, and a bit of luck could see Federer in a very strong position.
I think Federer still matches up well against Djokovic, but he could benefit a lot by not having to play these two players back to back... By getting into the top 4, he could cross his fingers and hope Djokovic and Nadal are in the same half of the draw and that could open up his chances to win a 17th Grand Slam.
You would never in a million years here Federer speak like this, but I think there is plenty of benefit for him to get up the Rankings... It is no surprise to see the former World Number 1 put in an entry form for the indoor tournament in Rotterdam in the second week of February, a tournament he has not played in since 2005, as he looks to build his points.
5) The WTA Tour is in its best position for some time: It was great to see the Semi Final line up for the Women's draw as it was one of the strongest there has been in some time and we finally seem to have some real stars at the top of the WTA Rankings.
Victoria Azarenka, Petra Kvitova and Maria Sharapova all leap-frogged Caroline Wozniacki at the top of the Rankings, and I think all three players are bona fide Grand Slam potential winners for the rest of the season.
Add Kim Clijsters and Serena Williams to those and we have the possibility of some really good matches on the tour for the rest of the season.
I have never been the biggest fan of Wozniacki, but I think she may also benefit from not having the pressure of being World Number 1 and could potentially break her own Grand Slam duck, although I would favour plenty of players to beat her on their day as the Dane lacks some of the weapons needed to WIN matches and not just play a game where you hope your opponent makes errors.
Still, I have not been as excited as watching the WTA Tour for a few seasons now and I think it will be a positive year for the tour.
Australian Open Picks Recap
I can't say I have too much to complain about from my first foray into the tennis scene in 2012 as I managed to identify winners of both the Men's and Women's tournament in Melbourne, while the daily picks were also successful.
I haven't been involved in this weeks tournaments as I am not a fan of the week after a Grand Slam event and we also have Davis Cup ties next week, so a lot of the the top players on the ATP Tour have taken a little bit of time off.
A watching brief makes a lot of sense at this moment, but I will be back for Picks from the First Round of the Davis Cup which begins on Friday 10th February.
Daily Picks: + 15.76 (68 Units staked, + 23.18% yield)
Outright Picks: + 7.52 Units (9 Units staked, + 83.56% yield)
2012 SEASON: + 23.28 Units (77 Units staked, + 30.33% yield)
2011 SEASON: + 82.02 Units
I was going to do this on Sunday evening, immediately after the tournament was concluded, but the six hour Final that I covered on the blog meant I was extremely tired and didn't really fancy getting back on the computer in the evening... Plus I met someone quite fantastic while having a drink after the tournament was concluded and didn't get home a lot later than I had planned!
Here I will present a few of my thoughts from the Australian Open and a recap of how the picks went:
Australian Open 2012 Thoughts
1) Was it really the greatest Men's Final ever?: Now I heard a few of the so-called 'experts' describe this as the greatest Final ever at Grand Slam level, but I tend to think that is the usual sensationalist way of reporting that we have seen creep into all of the sporting events around the globe.
The first set was not high on quality, while it was one way traffic for Novak Djokovic in sets two and three, all the way through to the middle of set four... It would not have been a surprise if Djokovic had won this in four sets when leading 4-3, 40-0* on Rafael Nadal's serve in that fourth set.
Granted Nadal raised his level from that moment on and there were some wonderful winners from that point on, but this was not a better level of tennis throughout than the Wimbledon Finals that were competed by Roger Federer and Nadal in 2008 and 2009.
This Final was truly gripping theatre, and the twists and turns in the final set and a half were exciting to watch, but it was not the greatest Final ever and I have a few matches that I rate higher in terms of overall quality throughout the five sets competed.
As we see with Lionel Messi, people are very quick to label the last thing they have seen as the 'greatest of all time', but this match, while excellent, doesn't deserve those plaudits.
2) Will anyone outside of the top 4 in the Men's game win a Grand Slam this season?: I find it hard to imagine that anyone will break the dominance of the top 4 Men in the World Rankings as anyone to do so will have to beat at least two of these players, and potentially three of the players, in a row in a best of five set match and I cannot see that happening at this moment in time.
There are some really dangerous players around like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro in the Men's game, as well as a soon to be returning Robin Soderling, but I think they all have too many mental hurdles to overcome, while the top 4 players are playing at a level higher than the rest of the Men in the draw.
At the moment, it is beginning to be tough to look beyond Novak Djokovic as the favourite to win every Grand Slam, while I still think Roger Federer is capable of winning one at either Wimbledon or the US Open.
I think Andy Murray also showed enough to suggest he is not to far away from winning his maiden Grand Slam title, but he is another player that could find it very tough beating two of the others in back to back matches in a best of five set... However, his ranking means he could potentially have to play none of the other top 4 until a Final if he gets a bit of fortune, and that is something that is unlikely to happen for someone outside of the top 4.
I do think the player most likely to break the dominance of the top 4 players to win a Grand Slam this season is likely to be the player that last won a Grand Slam outside of these players and that is Juan Martin Del Potro- I think the Argentinian is not too far from his best, but he still has some levels to find and I think he could be the biggest threat at the US Open and not before then.
3) This is a big couple of months for Bernard Tomic: I think Bernard Tomic has a big couple of months ahead as he is now going to be on a part of the tour where is game is not exactly suited for, as we get towards the clay court swing, and it will be interesting as to how the Australian youngster copes with a different type of pressure he will be facing.
Players will want to put him in his place after all the attention his run at the Australian Open generated for him, and it will be interesting to see how he copes in 'lesser' tournaments than his home Grand Slam.
He doesn't have too many points to defend in the next 3-4 months, and, if he plays how he can, he could be a seeded player by the time the next couple of Grand Slams come up later this year.
4) Roger Federer wants to be World Number 1 again, but breaking the Top 2 could be just as important: Now we heard from Roger Federer before the Australian Open, openly stating that he WANTS the World Number 1 position back and that can only be good news for his fans as he clearly feels he is still able to compete with the best players.
However, I think breaking the top 2 could be just as important for him if he wants to win a Grand Slam again, although he could still require a bit of luck on his side.
Now I am not saying he cannot beat Rafael Nadal full stop, but I would not fancy his chances too much on any surface other than perhaps at the US Open which play the fastest of the surfaces at Grand Slam level... Breaking the top 2 apart, and a bit of luck could see Federer in a very strong position.
I think Federer still matches up well against Djokovic, but he could benefit a lot by not having to play these two players back to back... By getting into the top 4, he could cross his fingers and hope Djokovic and Nadal are in the same half of the draw and that could open up his chances to win a 17th Grand Slam.
You would never in a million years here Federer speak like this, but I think there is plenty of benefit for him to get up the Rankings... It is no surprise to see the former World Number 1 put in an entry form for the indoor tournament in Rotterdam in the second week of February, a tournament he has not played in since 2005, as he looks to build his points.
5) The WTA Tour is in its best position for some time: It was great to see the Semi Final line up for the Women's draw as it was one of the strongest there has been in some time and we finally seem to have some real stars at the top of the WTA Rankings.
Victoria Azarenka, Petra Kvitova and Maria Sharapova all leap-frogged Caroline Wozniacki at the top of the Rankings, and I think all three players are bona fide Grand Slam potential winners for the rest of the season.
Add Kim Clijsters and Serena Williams to those and we have the possibility of some really good matches on the tour for the rest of the season.
I have never been the biggest fan of Wozniacki, but I think she may also benefit from not having the pressure of being World Number 1 and could potentially break her own Grand Slam duck, although I would favour plenty of players to beat her on their day as the Dane lacks some of the weapons needed to WIN matches and not just play a game where you hope your opponent makes errors.
Still, I have not been as excited as watching the WTA Tour for a few seasons now and I think it will be a positive year for the tour.
Australian Open Picks Recap
I can't say I have too much to complain about from my first foray into the tennis scene in 2012 as I managed to identify winners of both the Men's and Women's tournament in Melbourne, while the daily picks were also successful.
I haven't been involved in this weeks tournaments as I am not a fan of the week after a Grand Slam event and we also have Davis Cup ties next week, so a lot of the the top players on the ATP Tour have taken a little bit of time off.
A watching brief makes a lot of sense at this moment, but I will be back for Picks from the First Round of the Davis Cup which begins on Friday 10th February.
Daily Picks: + 15.76 (68 Units staked, + 23.18% yield)
Outright Picks: + 7.52 Units (9 Units staked, + 83.56% yield)
2012 SEASON: + 23.28 Units (77 Units staked, + 30.33% yield)
2011 SEASON: + 82.02 Units
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