Tennis Picks (January 9th)

I have had a few days off from the early season picks as there just wasn't much I liked in the last three days so there wasn't any real desire to get involved with the Australian Open fast approaching.

That is not the case on this day when I do like a few matches and these are my picks from Sydney and Auckland.


Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: This is a bit of a risky pick as Fernando Verdasco hasn't been in great form in the Hopman Cup last week and the Spaniard is now coming up to a 4 year anniversary since his break out performance at the Australian Open.

Verdasco hasn't reached those same heights after 2009, but I think he still has enough in his game to knock off Denis Istomin, a player that can be very tough on his day but also mentally fragile.

Istomin did win their last meeting at Queens in London on a grass court, but Verdasco had won 3 in a row before that. I just think Verdasco will have enough big shots to see off Istomin in this one, although it might be close up until the end in a 6-4, 7-6 win for the Spaniard.


Florian Mayer v Bernard Tomic: I might be in the minority, but I do feel that Bernard Tomic has been a bit of a disappointment over the last couple of seasons and I think Florian Mayer will cause him a lot of problems in this match.

Mayer is a 'grimy' tennis player that will use a lot of spin and variation in his game and it is clearly something that has bothered Tomic in the past.

The young Australian has lost all 3 previous meetings against Mayer, losing all 7 sets they have competed and that includes a couple of defeats last season. Mayer has been set as the underdog in this one and I am going to have a small interest that he wins for the fourth time in a row against Tomic in this one.


Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 games v Alejandro Falla: Philipp Kohlschreiber received a bye in the First Round in Auckland, but I think he will be too strong for Alejandro Falla as long as he isn't suffering from too much jet lag.

I would suggest Kohlschreiber has adjusted to the time having been beaten early in Doha last week and he will be confident in this one having beaten Falla in all 4 previous meetings in the professional ranks.

The German beat Falla in straight sets at the Australian Open last season meaning he has won 6 consecutive sets and all but one of those sets has come with a 6-3 or better ending.

Falla can cause problems on his day, but it clearly seems Kohlschreiber is content with what the Colombian brings to the table and I would expect a break in each set being the difference between the players.


Na Li - 4.5 games v Madison Keys: Na Li is building some real momentum ahead of the first Grand Slam of the season and she has followed her win in Shenzhen by reaching the Quarter Final here in Sydney.

Li has barely been tested so far and I think she is going to too experienced for the young American Madison Keys.

It has been a productive week so far for Keys as she came through qualifying and she has won a couple of big matches against Lucie Safarova and Jie Zheng, but Li is a lot more consistent than anyone Keys has faced this week.

Sometimes these qualifiers can get a lot of momentum behind them, but I think Li will be too strong and a 6-3, 6-4 win is on the cards for the World Number 6.


MY PICKS: Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 Games @ 2.02 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Florian Mayer @ 2.33 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Na Li - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Season 2013: 10-5, + 9.23 Units (27 Units Staked, + 34.2% Yield)

Tennis Recap June 18-24

The final grass court tournaments before Wimbledon have been completed and now it is all eyes on the third Grand Slam of the season.

I will have a full preview of the tournament out shortly, but I think it is one of the best draws  in the Men's draw that I have seen for some time with lots of intriguing matches coming up and plenty of threats for the big four players to be worrying about in the coming two weeks. Let's hope for some great weather and great tennis moving forward.

It wasn't a good week at all for the picks as players either tanked at the wrong time, or were just not capable of producing what I expected on the day... Suffice to say it is the worst week I had this season, but I would rather get that out of the way now and hope for a strong Wimbledon than have a terrible Grand Slam.


What does Andy Roddick's win at Eastbourne mean? I have read in a few places that people are once again considering the American as a credible outsider that could win Wimbledon because he won the event at Eastbourne, but anyone who saw him play will know Andy Roddick is far removed from the player that last reached the Final at SW19 back in 2009.


These wins were actually the first he had since March, and I think the fact he dropped a set against Fabio Fognini while not being as effective behind serve suggests he will not go too far at Wimbledon. His draw is not the kindest as I think he is in the toughest Quarter and I will be more than a little surprised if he is still around come the middle of the second week.


It was a good win for his confidence, but Roddick is not the same player he was and I don't put too much faith into what he managed to achieve at Eastbourne.


How much should someone take into account the form at exhibition tournaments? This has really come about due to the two defeats suffered by Andy Murray at the exhibition event held at Stoke Park in Buckinghamshire over the last week, but I don't think it is as big an issue as some would like to believe.


How many readers know there are big exhibition tournaments before the Australian Open and the French Open too? How many would be surprised that the likes of Roger Federer have played in such events and actually performed better at the Grand Slam event they are preparing for?


That's all this is- it is players trying out a couple of things and just getting the feel of the grass underneath their feet as they get ready to start their Wimbledon challenge.


Those two defeats to Janko Tipsarevic and Novak Djokovic would not worry me in the slightest- the draw Murray has received at Wimbledon is a different matter though!


The Boodles exhibition tournament: I was fortunate enough to attend The Boodles event held at Stoke Park this year and it truly was an enjoyable event and one that I will definitely be adding to my calender in the coming years.


Having been to Queens for many years now, I wasn't sure there was a venue where we could get easier access to the top players in the game, but that was the case at Stoke Park where the players are happy to walk through public access areas and also very happy to pose for a photo and sign an autograph.


The court itself is in a very intimate setting and it is clearly enjoyable for the tennis players too who do have some fun (another reason I wouldn't be overly concerned by a couple of defeats for Andy Murray).


If you ever get a chance, I would recommend attending highly!




Weekly Final: - 10 Units (18 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 51.74 Units (528 Units Staked, 9.80% yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap (June 11-17)

Another week has gone by on the Tour and we are now just seven days from the start of the third Grand Slam of the season at Wimbledon. That means we have the last of the grass court events starting this week before Wimbledon and most of the top players will be playing exhibition events rather than proper tournaments.

It was a controversial end to the tournament at Queens this week and where else can I start?!


David Nalbandian is disqualified in the Final at Queens: I haven't seen anything like what happened on Sunday as David Nalbandian was forced to default the Final at Queens even though he was leading 1-0 in sets and was a break down in the second set.


I am sure most of you would have seen the incident when Nalbandian kicked the sponsors panel that shattered and ended up cutting a line judge's leg- it was a really unfortunate incident, but I can't excuse it and there could really have only been one way that match was going to go as soon as he did what he did.


I do think it was out of order to get Nalbandian to have an immediate interview on court where the questions were too much when someone is still in an emotional state. All they had to do was to get Nalbandian to apologise and move on rather than pushing for him to answer questions- how many of us would be in a position to speak at such an emotional juncture?


I am glad to see that Nalbandian has since released a couple of statements showing how apologetic he is about the whole situation, while he was the same in the press interview afterwards when he was a little calmer.


It is already a shame that Nalbandian will lose his prize money and his ranking points from the event, points that would have seen him likely seeded for Wimbledon.


I don't agree with the numpties who are 'demanding' that he serves a suspension as I think the fact is he has come to Queens and basically played while losing money all week with no prize money or ranking points gained- that is enough punishment, as well as the shame in losing a Final in the manner he did, so the idea that he should be suspended is beyond laughable.


The kick was a mistake and he didn't intend to hit the line judge, so I think the punishment is already complete.


I was fortunate enough to meet Nalbandian this week and have a quick chat with him- he was friendly, happy to sign my ticket and also to have a photo taken and all this was around an hour before he was due on court so I wasn't disappointed in meeting my favourite player of the last ten years- it's a shame that he couldn't get his name on the winners board, but I hope he does come back in the coming years.


Least now I won't hear the numerous people asking who is at the event(!)




The difference in Roger Federer's and Rafael Nadal's defeats at Halle: I have said for some time that I don't think Roger Federer is at 100% with his health and I expect he will take the time off between Wimbledon and the Olympic games. His defeat in the Final at Halle was disappointing and he has looked a little jaded at times during the week.


I find it very hard to imagine that he can go to Wimbledon and have a real chance of winning the tournament with the way he has been playing since winning in Madrid- he struggled to put away lesser opponents at the French Open and he just hasn't looked right to me in using the eye test.


There will be some out there that are wondering why I have these concerns about Federer and not the same thing when it comes to Rafael Nadal and the answer is pretty simple- Nadal has never really had a strong pedigree in the tournament between the French Open and Wimbledon, unlike Federer.


Nadal has won the tournament at Queens, but 4 of his 5 appearances at that tournament has seen him go out at the Quarter Final stage and he has reached the Final at Wimbledon or won that event soon after.


All Nadal considers at this stage is to get a bit of practice on the grass and he has done that and I have no doubt he will be ready for Wimbledon. The draw will still be important to see whether he can get to the Final and win the event, but that will be analysed at the end of the coming week.




Should we read anything into all the seeds falling at Queens?: It was a strange tournament all around at Queens, culminating in the David Nalbandian situation, but the question is what to read into all the top seeds falling so quickly at the tournament.


Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Andy Roddick and Janko Tipsarevic were all early losers, but I don't think we should read anything into it... Well nothing more than it just being one of those tournaments where it happens from time to time.


Murray and Tipsarevic will be going on to The Boodles this week to play some exhibition matches to get up to speed on the grass, while Andy Roddick is playing down in Eastbourne although he has been given a tough draw against Sam Querrey, but the biggest news may be about Tsonga.




Will Jo-Wilfried Tsonga make it to Wimbledon?: This was the biggest news (before the David Nalbandian situation) coming out of Queens as far as I was concerned as the Frenchman has potentially broken a finger and could be forced to miss Wimbledon.


This will be a big shame for the event, especially after Tsonga's performance at the French Open which had seemed to have filled him with confidence for the grass court season.


Outside of the top four players in the World, I thought Tsonga had the best chance to really have an impact at Wimbledon so I am looking forward to hearing what has happened to his finger and whether he is going to be missing.


The suggestions are that he will be fine and will be in the field next Monday, but I think I will keep an eye on him and see if he takes part in any exhibition matches.


If fully fit and ready to go, Tsonga could really make people sit up and take notice in the coming weeks with Wimbledon and the Olympic games both taking place on the grass he loves playing on.




Weekly Final: + 3.76 Units (18 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 61.74 Units (510 Units Staked, 12.11% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap (French Open)

The second Grand Slam of 2012 is over with Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal winning the two events and it won't be long until the third Major starts at Wimbledon towards the end of the month.

While the daily picks only produced a small profit by the end of the tournament, catching both winners in the outright markets have really upped the profits at the end of the tournament. I only received a bonus by picking the Men's Champion to lose less than 3 sets at the tournament and Rafael Nadal's serene progress through the draw has also brought that pick in.

Below are a few thoughts from the event and I will also update the profit/loss from the French Open and the overall season results.


Putting Maria Sharapova's Grand Slam in perspective: All of the hype, particularly on the British channels, about Maria Sharapova's completing the career Grand Slam is absolutely ridiculous if you ask me.


It is a great achievement, there is no doubt about that, but it seriously needs to be put into perspective compared to some of her peers including the Williams sisters. First things first, the surfaces no longer have the differences that they used to and that makes it easier for players to make the adjustments when moving from the hard to the clay and then to the grass courts, well at least easier than they used to.


Secondly, this is only the fourth Major that Sharapova has now won and that is far short of the expectations people had when she won Wimbledon at 17. Compare that to players like Justine Henin (7 Grand Slams), Venus Williams (7 Grand Slams) and Serena Williams (13 Grand Slams) and you see there is plenty of room for the Russian before she can be considered alongside the greats of yesteryear.


I also wasn't impressed with some of the commentators comparing Sharapova's achievement to Serena Williams when she won the 'Serena Slam'... The BIG difference is Serena won all 4 Majors consecutively, not over the space of 8 years and that has to be stated- of course, I would revise this whole thing if Sharapova goes on and wins Wimbledon, the Olympics and the US Open and then we could start speaking about this achievement at the same level as Serena's.




Rafael Nadal is the 'King of Clay': Rafael Nadal completed his seventh win at the French Open and he remains the ultimate player on the surface and I think he has underlined his position as the best player to have played on the dirt in the history of the game.


However, he can consider himself a touch fortunate that the match was called off when it was on Sunday evening as he was completely on the ropes despite being up 2-1 in sets... That break gave him the chance to find his place mentally and allowed him to get back to what he wanted to do.


I still think he needed to finish the match in four sets, something he did do in the end, as I would have favoured Novak Djokovic heavily if it had gone the distance. It was a shame that he couldn't have forced a tie-break to prolong the drama, while a double-fault was the most disappointing ending to the Final.


However, there was enough in the match to suggest that Djokovic should be the favourite to win the event at Wimbledon depending on the draw of course.




Is Roger Federer suffering with some sort of injury: I have said during the French Open that Roger Federer has not looked himself and he did mention that he had a niggle before the event in Rome... My question would be how much is actually suffering?


Federer is not the kind of player that will openly say what is bothering him, but it will be interesting to see how he goes at Halle before making any judgements on how he will perform at Wimbledon.


He is still one of the top players on the grass and he is going to be a real threat if he is fit, but I want to see him remove my doubts before he is under consideration to possibly win Wimbledon.




Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be a real dark horse at Wimbledon: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga surprised many, including me, with his run to the French Open Quarter Finals and he was so close to beating Novak Djokovic that I think the Frenchman could be a real threat at Wimbledon if he has not allowed that defeat to mentally linger.


Tsonga proved last year when he beat Roger Federer in the Quarter Final at Wimbledon that he can really beat the big players on this surface and I think he could take advantage if he gets a decent draw.


His mental resolve will be tested at Queens this week and it will give me an insight into how he is feeling. I also hope Tsonga does not go to Eastbourne as he did last season and instead takes the week off to get ready for Wimbledon and make sure his batteries are recharged... If he does that, I think Tsonga is ready for a deep run.






French Open Daily Picks: 22-23, + 3.36 Units (75 Units Staked)


French Open Outright Picks: + 18.11 Units (14 Units Staked)


French Open 2012: + 21.47 Units (89 Units Staked)




Season 2012 Update: + 57.98 Units (492 Units Staked, 11.78% Yield)

Tennis Recap May 6-13 (Madrid)

It wasn't a great week in Madrid for tennis fans as too many players were not happy about being here and that meant that there were some poor performances and some really surprising results.

I don't think I can remember the last time that both Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal had exited a Masters event before the Semi Finals, and both players left with their future participation at the event very much in doubt.

I'll put down a few thoughts from the event below and also update the season profit and loss. I will then have a separate thread with the outright picks from the Rome Masters, which actually began earlier today, and daily pick threads will start from tomorrow...


Roger Federer has reached World Number 2: Over the last 6-8 months, Roger Federer has definitely got back to something like his best and I am not surprised in the slightest that he has overtaken Rafael Nadal in the Rankings and moved back to the World Number 2 position. For the first time in many years, Federer has made it no secret of his desire to return to the Number 1 position when this season began and he is well on the way to getting somewhere near that as Novak Djokovic has plenty more points to defend than the Swiss man.


A couple of months ago, I also made it a point to suggest the move back into the top 2 in the World Rankings may actually aid Federer's chances of winning another Grand Slam as he is could, depending on the draw of course, no longer need to beat BOTH  Rafael Nadal and Djokovic to do so. At the end of the day, in a gruelling Grand Slam event, it is those small differences that can make all the difference.


Now I am not sure when the French Open decides on their seeds but I do know that unlike Wimbledon, they are based solely on the Rankings a player has rather than looking at past results as Wimbledon does. My only question is whether the seedings are taken from Rankings in this week or the previous week?


Federer only reached the Third Round at the Rome Masters last season, so I expect he will likely further increase his lead over Nadal in the Number 3 position and perhaps close further on Djokovic as the Number 1...




Serena Williams may still not be the player to beat at Roland Garros: I have tremendous respect for Serena Williams who I regularly describe as the best player in the World, but I am not jumping on the bandwagon just yet that she is the favourite to win at Roland Garros.


The bottom line is she has struggled at that event throughout her career, only winning it once, and she regularly has to beat the fans as well as her opponent and that has never really sat well with her.


Williams did record a thumping win over Victoria Azarenka, the World Number 1 and the most in-form player in 2012, but the conditions in Madrid favour the American's game so much and are not replicated in Paris. The altitude makes the ball run faster, while the courts have always been quicker than other clay courts so I think it is too soon for people to label Williams as the favourite.


Next week the Tour moves to Rome and I will be interested to see how she performs there (although she may make my outright plan once I look at her draw).




Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic whinging: Normally I would say that the players are being bad losers in their criticisms of the courts in Madrid, but you can't really say too much when the organisers themselves admit that they are slippery and they have made mistakes in the way they have laid the surface.


The problem here seems to be that the courts have been laid too late, meaning there was nothing that could be done once the organisers realised that they were not as playable as they had been making out in the lead up to the event.


I would love to see more contrasts in the courts around the World rather than the way they are at the moment with similar speeds and little variation in the surfaces... However, I don't think the courts in Madrid came under that category, but rather were a little dangerous with players struggling with footing and turning.


With the top two players (in terms of Ranking coming into the event) essentially saying they will boycott this tournament in the future until they return to the red clay, I think Madrid's hand may well be forced for the 2013 event.




Weekly Update: 7-6, + 1.60 Units (26 Units Staked)


Season Update: + 34.08 Units (354 Units Staked, 9.63% yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Weekly Recap (Monte Carlo)

I mentioned at one point last week that the ATP Masters Event at Monte Carlo seemed to lack the feel of one of the bigger events on the calender, feeling more like an ATP 250 tournament than anything else. I truly believe the tournament loses a lot of credibility with it being the only Masters Event which is not compulsory.


Rafael Nadal still the one to beat on a clay court: Rafael Nadal won his 8th consecutive title at Monte Carlo and I think this one will be the most important for a couple of reasons.


The first is the fact that he beat Novak Djokovic in the Final, something he had failed to do since before the 2011 season. That will have finally given the Spaniard some confidence back after losing so many important matches to Djokovic over the last 15 months and will put him in good stead for the rest of the clay court season.


The second reason is the fact that he should now have the confidence in the knee issues that had forced his early retirement at the Masters Event in Miami, an injury Nadal admitted was still concerning him ahead of this one in Monte Carlo. It is clear he is much happier with the state of his body as he gets back on a clay court as it is much less demanding on his knees, and it is no surprise that he is going back to Barcelona in the coming week.




Ivan Ljubicic's retirement: Ivan Ljubicic became another big name tennis player from the last ten years that has called time on his career just a few short weeks after Fernando Gonzalez did the same in Miami.

Ivan Ljubicic was an under-rated player in his time, although his lack of success at Grand Slam level will likely have disappointed him.


Ljubicic did reach a high of World Number 3 in his career, a real achievement on its own, and that year coincided with his best efforts in a Grand Slam tournament as he reached the Quarter Final in Australian and the Semi Final at the French Open, but failure to reach further than the Fourth Round in any other Grand Slam tournament is a surprise considering his all around game.


The Croatian was highly respected by the other players on the Tour and he seems to be well-liked so I only hope he enjoys his post-playing career.




On another note, it was a tough week to be picking the matches considering the lack of consistency in the performances as a lot of the players were playing their first clay court tournament of the season.


Weekly Update: 4-4, + 2.44 Units (13 Units Staked)


Outright Update: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 29.79 Units (313 Units Staked, 9.51% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

NFL/NCAA Season Recap

I actually cannot believe that the NFL/NCAA Football seasons are already over after six months of fascinating stories that culminated with the Alabama Crimson Tide and the New York Giants being crowned as the Champions.

I easily had my worst time ever picking NFL games as the weekly results kept throwing up surprises, something I have put down to the lockout inspired season. There are some results I will never understand, for example seeing the New Orleans Saints lose, indoors no less, to the St Louis Rams as the 14 point favourites.

Or how about the thought that the Super Bowl Champions, the Giants, lost twice to the Washington Redskins and also to Seattle at home.

It was a season dominated by stories concerning Andrew Luck and the 'Suck for Luck' sweepstakes that were eventually 'won' by the Indianapolis Colts, although that does mean that we are VERY unlikely to be seeing Peyton Manning play in the Blue again.

The Manning story looks to dominate the next month before free agency starts as we get closer and closer to the March 8th deadline when he is due a roster bonus from the Colts, or will be cut from the team. Then we will get the Washington Redskins and the Miami Dolphins fighting for the signature, as well as Matt Flynn from the Green Bay Packers.


The NCAA season was much better in terms of reading the games, although it wouldn't have taken much for a blind monkey to do well on that front considering the favourites were dominant against the spread for much of the early part of the season.

The top 6-10 teams in the nation were head and shoulders clear of the rest and has once again got people clamouring for a Play Off system after Alabama were controversially picked to play the LSU Tigers in New Orleans for the National Championship. It seems the prospect of the top 4 being invited into a Semi Final and then a Final has been raised again and could potentially be brought in for the 2014 season.

We have already got through 'Signing Day' for new College recruits, and the next 4-5 months we will get to see which teams have begun filling in the gaps the most effectively. At the moment, the LSU Tigers look to be in a great position to get back to the National Championship Game and possibly go one further, although all the stories will be about the Bowl Eligible USC Trojans who have been given a boost by the returning Matt Barkley at QB.


Fortunately, we will not have daily updates of how the Labour Negotiations are going, like we did last season, and the NFL will revert to a familiar pattern moving forward to the Draft in April. That also means we will get the 'excitement' of free agency from March 13th, although I have generally been disappointed with the action the Miami Dolphins take when that comes about.

Looking ahead at this early stage to the next season, you would imagine the likes of Green Bay, New Orleans and the New York Giants will be the leading contenders in the NFC, with the likes of Philadelphia and Detroit being definite dark horses to upset the apple cart.

The AFC has less teams that can really make an impact in my mind, with New England, Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh being the leading teams before Free Agency and the Draft have been completed. We could see another improvement from Cincinnati if they are smart in the Draft, while I expect better from the New York Jets and San Diego.

Seeing how the next four months develop will help sharpen these thoughts in what was another entertaining season at both College and professional levels.

NCAA Season 2011-12: 63-36, + 23.25 Units


NFL Season 2011-12: 80-83-2, - 13.72 Units

Australian Open 2012 Recap

So the first Grand Slam of the new season is over and I have finally found a moment to get a recap together of the first serious tournament and a few thoughts I had from the event.

I was going to do this on Sunday evening, immediately after the tournament was concluded, but the six hour Final that I covered on the blog meant I was extremely tired and didn't really fancy getting back on the computer in the evening... Plus I met someone quite fantastic while having a drink after the tournament was concluded and didn't get home a lot later than I had planned!

Here I will present a few of my thoughts from the Australian Open and a recap of how the picks went:

Australian Open 2012 Thoughts
1) Was it really the greatest Men's Final ever?: Now I heard a few of the so-called 'experts' describe this as the greatest Final ever at Grand Slam level, but I tend to think that is the usual sensationalist way of reporting that we have seen creep into all of the sporting events around the globe.


The first set was not high on quality, while it was one way traffic for Novak Djokovic in sets two and three, all the way through to the middle of set four... It would not have been a surprise if Djokovic had won this in four sets when leading 4-3, 40-0* on Rafael Nadal's serve in that fourth set.


Granted Nadal raised his level from that moment on and there were some wonderful winners from that point on, but this was not a better level of tennis throughout than the Wimbledon Finals that were competed by Roger Federer and Nadal in 2008 and 2009.


This Final was truly gripping theatre, and the twists and turns in the final set and a half were exciting to watch, but it was not the greatest Final ever and I have a few matches that I rate higher in terms of overall quality throughout the five sets competed.


As we see with Lionel Messi, people are very quick to label the last thing they have seen as the 'greatest of all time', but this match, while excellent, doesn't deserve those plaudits.


2) Will anyone outside of the top 4 in the Men's game win a Grand Slam this season?: I find it hard to imagine that anyone will break the dominance of the top 4 Men in the World Rankings as anyone to do so will have to beat at least two of these players, and potentially three of the players, in a row in a best of five set match and I cannot see that happening at this moment in time.


There are some really dangerous players around like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Tomas Berdych and Juan Martin Del Potro in the Men's game, as well as a soon to be returning Robin Soderling, but I think they all have too many mental hurdles to overcome, while the top 4 players are playing at a level higher than the rest of the Men in the draw.


At the moment, it is beginning to be tough to look beyond Novak Djokovic as the favourite to win every Grand Slam, while I still think Roger Federer is capable of winning one at either Wimbledon or the US Open.


I think Andy Murray also showed enough to suggest he is not to far away from winning his maiden Grand Slam title, but he is another player that could find it very tough beating two of the others in back to back matches in a best of five set... However, his ranking means he could potentially have to play none of the other top 4 until a Final if he gets a bit of fortune, and that is something that is unlikely to happen for someone outside of the top 4.


I do think the player most likely to break the dominance of the top 4 players to win a Grand Slam this season is likely to be the player that last won a Grand Slam outside of these players and that is Juan Martin Del Potro- I think the Argentinian is not too far from his best, but he still has some levels to find and I think he could be the biggest threat at the US Open and not before then.


3) This is a big couple of months for Bernard Tomic: I think Bernard Tomic has a big couple of months ahead as he is now going to be on a part of the tour where is game is not exactly suited for, as we get towards the clay court swing, and it will be interesting as to how the Australian youngster copes with a different type of pressure he will be facing.

Players will want to put him in his place after all the attention his run at the Australian Open generated for him, and it will be interesting to see how he copes in 'lesser' tournaments than his home Grand Slam.


He doesn't have too many points to defend in the next 3-4 months, and, if he plays how he can, he could be a seeded player by the time the next couple of Grand Slams come up later this year.


4) Roger Federer wants to be World Number 1 again, but breaking the Top 2 could be just as important: Now we heard from Roger Federer before the Australian Open, openly stating that he WANTS the World Number 1 position back and that can only be good news for his fans as he clearly feels he is still able to compete with the best players.


However, I think breaking the top 2 could be just as important for him if he wants to win a Grand Slam again, although he could still require a bit of luck on his side.


Now I am not saying he cannot beat Rafael Nadal full stop, but I would not fancy his chances too much on any surface other than perhaps at the US Open which play the fastest of the surfaces at Grand Slam level... Breaking the top 2 apart, and a bit of luck could see Federer in a very strong position.


I think Federer still matches up well against Djokovic, but he could benefit a lot by not having to play these two players back to back... By getting into the top 4, he could cross his fingers and hope Djokovic and Nadal are in the same half of the draw and that could open up his chances to win a 17th Grand Slam.


You would never in a million years here Federer speak like this, but I think there is plenty of benefit for him to get up the Rankings... It is no surprise to see the former World Number 1 put in an entry form for the indoor tournament in Rotterdam in the second week of February, a tournament he has not played in since 2005, as he looks to build his points.


5) The WTA Tour is in its best position for some time: It was great to see the Semi Final line up for the Women's draw as it was one of the strongest there has been in some time and we finally seem to have some real stars at the top of the WTA Rankings.


Victoria Azarenka, Petra Kvitova and Maria Sharapova all leap-frogged Caroline Wozniacki at the top of the Rankings, and I think all three players are bona fide Grand Slam potential winners for the rest of the season.


Add Kim Clijsters and Serena Williams to those and we have the possibility of some really good matches on the tour for the rest of the season.


I have never been the biggest fan of Wozniacki, but I think she may also benefit from not having the pressure of being World Number 1 and could potentially break her own Grand Slam duck, although I would favour plenty of players to beat her on their day as the Dane lacks some of the weapons needed to WIN matches and not just play a game where you hope your opponent makes errors.


Still, I have not been as excited as watching the WTA Tour for a few seasons now and I think it will be a positive year for the tour.


Australian Open Picks Recap
I can't say I have too much to complain about from my first foray into the tennis scene in 2012 as I managed to identify winners of both the Men's and Women's tournament in Melbourne, while the daily picks were also successful.


I haven't been involved in this weeks tournaments as I am not a fan of the week after a Grand Slam event and we also have Davis Cup ties next week, so a lot of the the top players on the ATP Tour have taken a little bit of time off.

A watching brief makes a lot of sense at this moment, but I will be back for Picks from the First Round of the Davis Cup which begins on Friday 10th February.

Daily Picks: + 15.76 (68 Units staked, + 23.18% yield)

Outright Picks: + 7.52 Units (9 Units staked, + 83.56% yield)




2012 SEASON: + 23.28 Units (77 Units staked, + 30.33% yield)


2011 SEASON: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Profit/Loss Update August 15th-21st

Another Masters event is in the books but Novak Djokovic is not the winner for only the 2nd time in 7 events this season.

The tournament also left a few question marks over the top 4 and their ability to win in New York, with Djokovic suffering with a shoulder problem, and Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal struggling for form.

The draw could be all important in deciding the winner in the Men's tournament at Flushing Meadows, but the Women's draw looks like being a procession with Serena Williams being head and shoulders above her competition.

Her price has come in accordingly, but I can't see too many players causing her enough problems and I think Williams will come out on top.

I am not sure how many tennis picks I will have this week outside of my two outright choices in the Winston Salem Open as the next Grand Slam is just around the corner, while some players motivation is definitely questionable at this early stage of the week.


DAILY PICKS AUGUST 15th-21st: + 2.86 Units


OUTRIGHT PICKS AUGUST 15th-21st: + 10 Units


OVERALL WEEKLY PROFIT/LOSS: + 12.86 Units




SEASON PROFIT/LOSS: + 71.72 Units