Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2017- Women's Final (January 28th)

The tournament organisers for the Australian Open may not have been able to pick two more popular Finals than the ones that have been set up this season.

There are plenty of easy storylines from the Venus Williams versus Serena Williams Women's Final and the Roger Federer versus Rafael Nadal Men's Final that you have to think all eyes of the sporting world will be focused on Melbourne over the next two days.

Whoever is successful over the next couple of days are going to be popular winners and the Australian Open 2017 will go down as one of the more memorable Grand Slams of recent years.


It has also been a very good one for the picks which have produced some very good numbers over the last two weeks after some really poor ones to open the tournament. The turnaround from Day 5 to now has been significant and will be something that will hopefully set the tone for the rest of the 2017 season after a couple of tough years.

Not every week is going to be as good as the one I just had, but the key is to try and limit the damage on those bad weeks and pick up big numbers when things are going the way I have anticipated. That's the perfect way of doing things, but not always as possible as I would want in what is always a long grind to try and get on the right side of the numbers.


Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Venus Williams: When Venus Williams and Serena Williams last played in a Grand Slam Final at Wimbledon in 2009, it was elder sister Venus who went into the Final as the favourite. She had won three of four Wimbledon titles prior to that Final so it was not a big surprise, but it was Serena who came through the stronger and she has continued to dominate women's tennis ever since.

Injury and illness didn't help Venus since 2009, but she did reach two Quarter Finals and one Semi Final at the Slam level in 2010 before those began to really affect her. Up until the Australian Open in 2015, Venus Williams had only reached one Fourth Round as her best result in the Grand Slams in the previous four years.

Things have definitely looked better for Venus Williams in the last two years although this might be the last chance she really has to add to her seven Grand Slam titles. Her run through the draw has been impressive, but Venus is yet to play someone of the level of baby sister Serena and it has been much tougher graft for the 36 year old Venus.

That might take its toll in the Final against an opponent who has been playing very well in the entire tournament. Serena Williams' win over Johanna Konta, and the manner of the win, is the most impressive result either has had in the event and Serena should also be much more rested than Venus having breezed through her last two matches compared with Venus who has had to battle much harder.

There are some similarities in their games with both possessing a powerful serve that can set up the rest of their game, while Venus is better at the net and Serena has the bigger forehand. Baseline rallies should be dominated by Serena for the most part and I do think this is a really big test for Venus and one she is not likely to be able to pass.

Nerves can play a part with Serena on the brink of breaking Steffi Graf's record, while it will be emotional as Serena will likely know Venus won't have a better chance to win another Grand Slam. However I do think Serena has been able to put her attachment to Venus to the back of her mind much more effectively than Venus does and that can be important in deciding the outcome.

Matches between these siblings have tended to be close and competitive with the power on display meaning the player with the first strike tends to dominate. However Serena does tend to get a little more joy out of her serve consistently and I think she will be able to break down the Venus forehand the longer this match goes and I will look for her to win this match with a fairly comfortable margin.

It's been a great run for Venus Williams, but I am looking for Serena Williams to make a bit more history with a 6-4, 6-3 win in the Final on Saturday.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 48-35, + 24.10 Units (160 Units Staked, + 15.06% Yield)

Wimbledon Tennis Day 13 Picks 2016- Ladies Final (July 9th)

Wimbledon Ladies Final 2016- Serena Williams vs Angelique Kerber

For the second time in 2016, Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber will compete for a Grand Slam title. The first time obviously ended with a huge surprise as Kerber managed to hold her nerve and prevent the Serena charge in the final set having dropped the second and so she will have belief she can win this one.

Beating Serena Williams on the faster surface at Wimbledon is a big task though and the World Number 1 will go in as a big favourite to finally bring home her 22nd Singles Grand Slam title and her first since winning the title here last year. A Semi Final defeat at the US Open to Roberta Vinci followed by Final defeats at the Australian Open and French Open here might have dented some of the aura around Serena, but she remains the best female player in the world when bringing her best to the court.

Angelique Kerber is yet to drop a set in this tournament and she has a couple of very solid wins in the last two Rounds behind her, but the German will know she has to be even better if she is going to double her Grand Slam titles in seven months.

Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Angelique Kerber: On first glance this does look a lot of games for Serena Williams to cover considering she was beaten by Angelique Kerber at the Australian Open and might have a slight mental block to overcome as she looks to match Steffi Graf's record of 22 Grand Slams in the professional era.

Losing both Grand Slam Finals played in 2016 as well as in the Semi Final at the US Open last September will have an affect, even on someone who has been as successful as Serena Williams. We are not watching robots, but human beings with real emotions and it is hard to ignore the fact that she has come up short in the last two Slams when going in as the favourite to win those matches.

Of course Serena should be favourite and I think she has peaked at the right time to win the Wimbledon title for the seventh time in her career. Her serve wasn't working as well as it can when she faced Kerber at the Australian Open, especially the first serve, but that part of her game looks to be in perfect condition and the courts here suit her serve very much more then in Australia.

That isn't to disrespect Kerber who has one of the best defensive games on the WTA Tour and who won't allow Serena to play her serve followed by a big forehand winner game. Kerber's defensive skills should affect the way Serena approaches the game as she might look to hit closer to the lines as soon as possible which might extract more mistakes, while Kerber will also look to make her play one more ball which can also lead to mistakes.

The Kerber serve is still one of the weaker parts of the German's game and that can be exposed on this surface. She might have beaten Venus Williams in straight sets, but Kerber was regularly in a bit of bother on serve and that is going to be the case against an aggressive and more consistent Serena Williams. Attacking the second serve should give Serena Williams a chance to dictate the points and get Kerber on the run.

On the other hand, Kerber has to try and stretch Serena out with the American not the greatest mover these days. It limits the power Williams can produce coming back when making her hit on the run, although I do think Serena is in the kind of form that will make it very difficult to get her out of her rhythm.

Kerber has to play better than she did against Venus Williams when she was aided by plenty of mistakes from the older Williams sister. Those are not coming as frequently from Serena Williams and not many players can say they have beaten her twice in a row with the World Number 1 someone who admits she recounts every loss she has had.

Serena Williams would only be 3-3 covering this number of games in her previous six Wimbledon Final wins, but she had covered in three in a row before last year. Even that match against Garbine Muguruza saw the Spaniard break in the second set to edge closer to Williams who had led 6-4, 5-1 before being broken twice.

Those nerves could prevent Serena covering here, but I think she will be looking for some revenge against Kerber and having lost to her in Australia should keep the mind focused even if in a commanding position. Only seven women have ever beaten both Williams sisters in the same tournament and I am not sure Kerber can make that number eight here.

As much as I respect the German, I think she will come up short in this one as Serena Williams uses her power and the conditions to come through 64, 63 and tie Graf's Singles Grand Slam record.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 43-36, + 12.66 Units (156 Units Staked, + 8.12% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 14 Picks 2016- Women's Final (June 4th)

The Friday Semi Finals are in the books and it was a very good day for the picks in what has been a tough tournament to date.

Now we are left with just two matches in the French Open 2016 as the Women's and Men's Finals have been set and hopefully the tournament will have two that at least end this Grand Slam with some really positive memories.

At the moment the overriding feeling out of the French Open is the stresses the organisers had to go through earlier in the week and the disappointing decisions made for some players who felt they were forced to play in sub-par conditions. There will be a hope that two memorable Finals will at least have this tournament remembered for something a little more positive.


Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 games v Serena Williams: I guess I shouldn't be surprised that Serena Williams is the favourite to win this Grand Slam Final against Garbine Muguruza, but that looks wrong to me. If you have watched any of the last few days at the French Open, you can't have too many doubts that the better tennis is being played by the Spaniard who also has previous having beaten Serena here at Roland Garros to really announce herself on the professional Tour.

There will be nerves, but Muguruza has to look back at the experience of the Wimbledon Final to give her a chance to win this French Open. She might have lost that Grand Slam Final last year, but the experiences should give Muguruza a chance to avenge that defeat to Serena Williams.

I also can't ignore the fact that Serena Williams looks to be carrying some sort of injury which Kiki Bertens may have taken advantage of if she was fully fit in the Semi Final. The injury can't be rested by Serena as she is playing for the third straight day and she can't hope that Muguruza is not healthy as Bertens was on Friday.

The big hitting game of Muguruza can expose some of the movement issues that Williams has been having and this looks a match that is very much on the racquet of the Spaniard. That might be strange to say considering how much power and experience Williams has, but I do think the World Number 1 would have been beaten if she had faced Muguruza in the last two Rounds with the performances she produced.

Maybe Williams can magically come out and be at 100% but even then this would be a tough match for her and I like Muguruza with the games and I expect the Spaniard will win her first Grand Slam title on Saturday.

MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Update: 27-30, - 10.16 Units (113 Units Staked, - 8.99% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Picks 2016- Women's Final (January 30th)

And so this is it... The two Singles Finals at the Australian Open 2016 have been set and the first of those will be the Women's Final between Serena Williams and Angelique Kerber.

The favourite holds the experience edge by some margin, but the underdog can play with a 'nothing to lose' attitude having surpassed expectations to reach the Final.

I am not really someone who likes the 'nothing to lose' tag for Finals because you have to think Kerber works so hard on the court to make sure she wins a Grand Slam. This might be her best opportunity to ever to do so and that will play a part too, but on to the pick.


Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Angelique Kerber: Serena Williams is unsurprisingly the big favourite to win this Grand Slam title and make it five Grand Slam wins from the last six competed. 2014 seems a long time ago when Serena Williams 'only' won the US Open, but she will be expected to make it 22 career Grand Slams by winning in Australia and having every chance of surpassing Margaret Court's record 24 Single Slams by the end of the season.

The World Number 1 has played with a chip on her shoulder this entire tournament even if she would be loathed to admit that. After losing in the US Open Semi Final last season and then pulling out of the Tour the rest of the way to recover, some questioned whether that was a mental blow from which she would not recover.

The knee issue at the Hopman Cup which forced another withdrawal only clouded her status all the more and Serena Williams came into the tournament at what was most likely her biggest price to win a Grand Slam for at least three years. But Serena has made little work of the draw following a First Round win over Camila Giorgi and the confidence has to be flowing through her ahead of the Final, even if she has admitted having nerves going into these matches in the past.

Williams lost nine games in her First Round match but has lost just seventeen in her next five matches combined and the serve seems to be working effectively. Issues with the sun have affected the ball toss in previous matches, but this is a night session match and it is going to take a monumental effort from Angelique Kerber to keep this one competitive.

I do like what Kerber brings to the court with the power to turn defence into attack very quickly and movement that can frustrate the best players on the Tour. Her first serve has actually been working much better than expected with a few cheap points coming from it and Kerber will need to keep that at a high percentage if she is going to earn the surprise win.

The lefty play might also disrupt Serena Williams a little bit, but Kerber will find it hard to match the power on the other side of the court and it does feel the match is going to be dictated on the American's racquet. Unlike Agnieszka Radwanska, Kerber has beaten Serena Williams in the past which might give her a little more belief in her game and two of their seven previous matches would have seen her cover this number of games.

However, that also means five out of seven has seen Serena cover and I think it is telling that Kerber has never won more than 30% of the return points against the Williams serve. With the way Serena has been serving in this tournament, it is hard to imagine that changing significantly which it would need to if Kerber was to win this match.

I actually think it is a number she will need to improve to simply stay in this one too and I believe Serena Williams is in such magnificent form that I expect her to win this one 62, 64.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 30-46, - 32.10 Units (146 Units Staked, - 21.30% Yield)

Wimbledon Day 12 Picks 2015: Women's Final Serena Williams v Garbine Muguruza (July 11th)

Before I go on to talk about the Ladies Final to be played at Wimbledon on Saturday, I have to mention the two men's Semi Finals which has left us with a repeat of the Final from last year.

While Novak Djokovic managed to come through a difficult first set before taking control against Richard Gasquet, Roger Federer was at his absolute best in dismissing Andy Murray in straight sets in what is arguably the best performance he has had since last winning Wimbledon in 2012.

You have to remember that Federer was the underdog in the match with Murray- however, there was only ever going to be one winner after he saved a break point in the first game of the match as Federer completely dominated behind serve.

It was the most unexpected performance from Federer, even if I did think he could win the match, because I though Murray has been in very strong form and looked very capable of winning his second Wimbledon title. There was absolutely no way I figured that the match would be completed in straight sets for either player, but Federer was barely threatened on serve after the first game and had Murray constantly under pressure in his own service games.

Federer was imperious and you can't really blame Andy Murray for anything because there really wasn't a lot he could do in the face of what Federer was producing all day. Murray will have to take the positives away from this tournament, even if he would have expected to win it, and he now moves onto the Davis Cup tie against France at Queens Club next week before turning his attention to the North American hard courts.

I expect Murray to be amongst the favourites to win in New York, but for now the world will be looking to see if Roger Federer can produce the same kind of performance on Sunday as he did on Friday. If he can serve as well as he did in the Semi Final, I think there is every chance he can beat Novak Djokovic and win his eighth title at SW19, but this is going to be a big test against a player that beat him here in five sets twelve months ago.

My early feeling is that Novak Djokovic might be under-rated after a couple of iffy performances, but Roger Federer turned the clock back so well that this looks like another memorable Final in the making.


Garbine Muguruza + 5.5 games v Serena Williams: Maybe it is because she is playing in her maiden Grand Slam or maybe it is the domineering Serena Williams on the other side of the court, but I can't help feel that Garbine Muguruza is being severely under-rated in the Final.

It has felt that everyone has chosen to ignore the fact that Muguruza crushed Serena Williams in a little over an hour and for the loss of just four games in the Second Round of the French Open in 2014. Or they've chose to ignore the competitive three set match these two played at the Australian Open in the Fourth Round in January, but either way I think this going to be a very intriguing Final.

I am not buying the suggestion that Williams is going to steamroll Muguruza who has the power to really push Serena backwards and also the shot-making behind a big serve to give her every chance. There is a feeling that nerves could play a part, but I am not so concerned with that after seeing how Muguruza handled herself in the Semi Final and the mental strength she displayed in coming back from a break down in the third set, having lost 5 games in a row to also drop the second set.

The Muguruza serve is just as capable of setting up the cheap points as Serena's is when it is on form, although I can understand the edge being given to Williams considering her own form. Both players have some excellent names beaten to reach the Final so I am sure that neither will have any confidence issues and that should make this one of the more memorable Wimbledon Ladies Finals in recent years.

8 of the last 9 Finals have been decided in straight sets, but I think this is one that certainly has the chance of going the distance. I expect Muguruza won't be intimidated by taking on a player that she has beaten and taken the distance in their last two Grand Slam matches and I think the Spaniard plays with the confidence that can make this very competitive.

Muguruza wasn't concerned with nerves in her Semi Final and clearly enjoys playing on the big stage. While I do think Williams has the serve that will produce more aces, I also think Muguruza can get plenty of balls back with aggressive returns that might just rattle Williams.

And nerves will certainly not be on one side of the court as Williams continues her bid to secure a second 'Serena Slam' and to maintain her chance of winning all four Grand Slams in the same calendar year. You can't say that hasn't played a part in the last two Slams at the French Open and Wimbledon and Williams will also know how capable Muguruza is in not just absorbing her pace, but fighting fire with fire.

I really like Muguruza and do believe this is a player that will win multiple Grand Slams once the first one is in the bag. She is supremely confident and has the easy power to make her very dangerous so I wanted to find a way to back her in some form in this match.

Unlike some of the 'experts', I think there is a decent chance of the upset, but I am focusing on the handicap markets instead with Muguruza being hugely disrespected.

I wouldn't put off anyone backing Garbine Muguruza with a 1.5 head start on the set betting which looks a big price considering Muguruza has won 3 of the last 5 sets these two have competed against one another. However, I am going with the 5.5 game head start for the Spaniard which will still be able to come in if this is a competitive two setter win for Williams. I don't think Muguruza has a similar freeze that Sabine Lisicki did in the Final two years ago or how Eugenie Bouchard played against Petra Kvitova because I think she is more talented than both and has more to offer against Serena Williams.

This should be a fun Final and one where Muguruza has a chance to announce herself to the world on a larger scale.

MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza + 5.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 24-25, - 5.19 Units (97 Units Staked, - 5.35% Yield)

French Open Day 14 Picks 2015- Women's Final: Serena Williams v Lucie Safarova (June 6th)

Both men's Semi Finals hit the heights that we were expecting for them on Friday, but the biggest winner on the day might have been Stan Wawrinka who managed to get past Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in four sets despite a big wobble in the middle of the match.

He isn't just the winner of the day for moving into his second Grand Slam Final, but Stan Wawrinka would have enjoyed seeing Andy Murray somehow dig out the third set against Novak Djokovic and then to see the heavens open meaning the second Semi Final has to be held over until Saturday.

While most neutrals will be looking at the remainder of the Murray-Djokovic match as a potential classic in the making, Wawrinka will be cheering on Murray to push the match into a fifth set and will  likely hope it goes as long as possible to strengthen his chances on Sunday.

Forget all this rubbish about wanting to beat players at their very best, Wawrinka would happily face the shell of either Murray/Djokovic in the Final if it means another Grand Slam victory and many others have taken advantage of this in the past.

Most notable was the US Open where the winner of the second men's Semi Final used to have almost nothing left on a regular basis when they persisted with the 'Super Saturday' schedule for television benefits and I don't remember too many looking back at those Slam Champions while looking to put an asterisk by their name.


The Murray-Djokovic match was outrageous at times.

The standard of tennis produced by both players was ridiculously high and it does add to the feeling that these two could be competing for the remaining two Grand Slams to be played this season and potentially much further. I think Novak Djokovic will be kicking himself for not pushing the foot down on the accelerator in the third set when he had chances to break the Andy Murray serve, but you have to also credit Murray for sticking in and finally earning a chance to get into the match with two stunning points at 5-5 in the third set.

Murray had yet to see a break point on the Djokovic serve prior to that, but took his chance and the next thing you knew he was a break up in the fourth set after holding serve from 0-40. Failing to hold onto that break might have been the turning point, but the interruption in play means the match is finely balanced overnight.


Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: There are two major questions that need to be answered in the women's Final at Roland Garros on Saturday. The first is how much has Serena Williams been able to recover from the illness that clearly affected her in the first set of her Semi Final win over Timea Bacsinszky?

The second is how well will Lucie Safarova deal with her first Grand Slam Final as a Singles competitor? She played well in her first Grand Slam Semi Final last year at Wimbledon before falling away against Petra Kvitova, but Safarova began nervously in her Semi Final against Ana Ivanovic.

One additional factor that is perhaps being underplayed is that Safarova was involved in the Doubles Semi Final with Bethanie Mattek-Sands on Friday and had to play three tough sets during the heart of the warm weather. Will that cause some fatigue to go with the inevitable nerves or will Safarova be able to keep control of her emotions both physically and mentally?

These are some tough questions to answer and we won't really know how it will pan out until the match begins on Saturday. Serena Williams would be a big favourite in normal circumstances, but the layers are unsure about her fitness and that means she looks an attractive pick in the Final.

I really like Safarova- she seems to be a nice person, but someone who is finally making use of all the weapons she has been afforded. She has served well through the tournament and straight set wins over Maria Sharapova, Garbine Muguruza and Ana Ivanovic is an impressive run of results. Of course Serena Williams is a level above all of those performers when at her best, but that is where the first question brings in the doubts.

Safarova is playing well enough to give Williams a lot of problems regardless of the health of the latter as long as she doesn't let the occasion get to her. I'm not a fan of her being out in the Paris brutal heat for as long as she was in the Doubles Semi Final on Friday and Williams has found a way to break down Safarova with her additional power in past matches.

The way that Williams was serving in her match with Bacsinszky was also inspiring for those who think the American is going to win her 20th Grand Slam title and I do believe the day off might have helped Serena find the strength to win this match.

I can see it being a competitive Final, but I think Williams' power has helped her out of some difficult spots and her experience is tough for Safarova to replicate. While there are factors we can't possibly determine at the moment, I believe Williams might have come through her most difficult moments at Roland Garros and can win her second title in three years here in a tough 75, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units) To Be Completed 63, 63, 57, 33

French Open Update: 44-33, + 16.44 Units (151 Units Staked, + 10.89% Yield)

Australian Open Day 13 Picks 2015- Women's Final Live Blog

I am considering doing a live blog for the women's Final between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams which takes place on Saturday morning and will use this post if I am going to do that.

First of all is my pick for the Final:


Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Maria Sharapova: There is a real feeling that Maria Sharapova won't have a better opportunity to snap her 15 match losing run against Serena Williams than in the Final of the Australian Open when they meet on Saturday.

The form of the two players suggests Sharapova has every chance of finally beating Williams for the first time since the end of the 2004 season, but there is some real mental pressure on the Russian having to overcome all the losses she has taken.

Serena Williams hasn't been at her best in the tournament, but she was producing arguably her best tennis in the last two Rounds and she has only lost one set from the last TWENTY-FOUR that these two have competed against one another. That is another huge mental barrier for Maria Sharapova to break through and she will need Williams to be short of her best if she is going to win this Grand Slam title.

Both players have similarities with the way they approach their tennis- both will look for a big serve to set their points up and have heavy returns off the ground. The forehand and backhands are powerful shots and both players look to dictate the points with those heavy shots to keep their opponent's on the back foot.

So why has Serena Williams dominated the head to head? It does look like Serena has the more consistent serve and won't serve the double faults at the rate that Sharapova does, while her second serve has a little more on it and is tougher to attack. The movement is also in favour of the American who is the slightly better defensive player and even these slight issues give her the edge in the contest.

There is also the added fire that Serena seems to bring to the court when she sees Maria Sharapova on the other side of the net and that has shown up in the head to head. Sharapova will have her chances in this one if she can play first strike tennis, but I do believe Williams is the one that is going to dictate the majority of the rallies and come through this match with a 63, 63 win and add her 19th Grand Slam trophy into the cabinet at home.


It is sod's law that my internet has been playing up a little this morning so I have had to join the live updates after the match has started. Just hit refresh on your browser for the updates.

Serena Williams 4-2* Maria Sharapova: Most people spent the rain delay talking about the illness that Serena Williams has been dealing with and how the delay was going to upset her rhythm.

Coming back out at 30-30 after a short delay is tough to do, but Serena Williams bangs down one big serve and one heavy shot down the line to move ahead by two games.


Serena Williams *5-2 Maria Sharapova: So much for the rain delay being a huge problem for Williams to deal with! Instead it is Sharapova who has been cooled off and who loses 4 straight points on serve to go down a double break.


Serena Williams 5-3* Maria Sharapova: A double fault is followed by a couple of big shots from Maria Sharapova to bring up three break points to save the set.

The first two are saved by big serves from Williams, but another double costs her one of her breaks.


Serena Williams *6-3 Maria Sharapova: I was wondering if that break would be a spark for Sharapova in this set, but Williams brings up three set points and then takes advantage of a net cord to take the first of those chances and put up the first set.

As well as Sharapova has played in that set, you have to wonder what her mind set is going to be as she drops another set against Serena Williams.

Big 'come on' from Williams to end that set too so I guess the coughing and illness is still very much at the back of her mind.


Serena Williams 6-3, 1-0* Maria Sharapova: The pressure is going to begin to build and build if Serena Williams continues serving like this- first game is comfortably held thanks to three big serves and then a big forehand down the line on the run.


Serena Williams *6-3, 1-1 Maria Sharapova: The commentators have just been wondering whether Maria Sharapova 'believes she can win' and are adamant that she does until the final point because of the competitor she is. The problem is that no matter how well you compete, the stats of losing 15 straight times to someone is going to play a part and to put that aside mentally is so tough to do.

Serena Williams has Maria Sharapova on the run again in this service game and the match is taking on a familiar pattern when these two players meet on the court as the heavier hitting from the American takes a toll.

Two more break points for Williams- the first is saved by an ace and the second saved by an unreturnable serve!

Another ace and a big forehand gets Sharapova out of the game and potentially a turning point in the match.


Serena Williams 6-3, 2-1* Maria Sharapova: Big serving has Maria Sharapova guessing a little bit about the direction it is coming in from and it is an easy hold to love for Serena Williams.

Sharapova is going to feel like she is constantly serving the way Serena rolled through the first two service games of this set. That brings its own pressure when you are playing catch up on the scoreboard too.


Serena Williams *6-3, 2-2 Maria Sharapova: Big mistake from Maria Sharapova to not play a Serena Williams mishit that hits the baseline to bring up 15 all.

Another error opened the door for Williams, but big time tennis from Sharapova to stay on serve.


Serena Williams 6-3, 3-2* Maria Sharapova: A huge return winner from Sharapova brings up 0-30 and opens the door for the break which is shut by two aces and an unreturned serve.

Another ace from Serena Williams wins the game and another huge 'come on' from the American which is clearly a response to the Sharapova 'come on' which followed the return winner to bring up 0-30.

If you didn't believe me when I said these two don't get on, that game perhaps highlighted a little of the animosity between them.


Serena Williams *6-3, 3-3 Maria Sharapova: It looks like this could be one of the easier service holds that Sharapova has had in the match as she quickly moves 30-0 up, but Serena Williams is going nowhere.

Some solid defensive play coupled with heavy aggressive ground strokes brings up another break point for the Number 1 Seed.

A very brave second serve prevents Williams from really attacking that break point and Sharapova holds on at the moment.

Serena missed a big chance to bring up a second break point when it looked like her defensive skills had paid off, and another unforced error keeps this match on serve.


Serena Williams 6-3, 4-3* Maria Sharapova: You have to admire the Sharapova mindset to come out of that game when it looked like the break was going to go against her.

A huge error from Serena Williams brings up 0-30 again on serve, the second service game in a row that has happened. A sense of deja vu for Sharapova as two big serves, one unreturned and one ace, levels the game and another ace moves Serena in front.

This time it won't be four straight points for Williams though- and then something completely strange has happened where it looks like Serena has game point but is forced to replay way after the fact.

That leads to a break point for Sharapova, but again it is two big serves that has turned the game around and an ace to wrap up the game.

It turns out Sharapova got the point for hindrance, which was surprising because I didn't notice anything in particular Williams did, but she didn't even make a move to argue the case. Still on serve in the second set, but the scoreboard pressure has to be building on Sharapova who continues to play catch up.


Serena Williams *6-3, 4-4 Maria Sharapova: Tremendous game from Sharapova, even if she did get away with a shocking volley to open it. Hold to 15 at the business end of the set is impressive.


Serena Williams 6-3, 5-4* Maria Sharapova: Anything you can do... Big serving from Serena Williams produce a hold to love and now she is on the brink of winning the Australian Open for the first time since 2010.

Been saying it all set, but pressure on Sharapova serving to stay in the match. She has handled playing from behind so well, but I can't help thinking how the match would have felt right now if Sharapova had forced Williams to serve out the first set rather than being broken.


Serena Williams *6-3, 5-5 Maria Sharapova: The way Sharapova has been handling this second set is impressive- from 0-15, a big second serve helps win one point and a huge forehand down the line helps her move in front.

Lack of first serves is an issue and a double fault means Williams is just two points from the title.

The defence of Williams, which I identified as being one of the key differences between the players that has led to this 15 match winning run for the American against Sharapova, forces an error and match point.

Absolutely stunning tennis from Sharapova has kept her in this set and it was only right that it took that kind of tennis for the Russian to save that match point.

Sharapova has gotten away with another drop shot and holds on- she might not be everyone's cup of team, but Sharapova has played so well and has to be admired no matter how this ends up.


Serena Williams 6-3, 6-5* Maria Sharapova: Some solid defence from Williams again, but eventually she can't keep the ball in play and a sniff of a chance for Sharapova at 30-30.

Take a guess what happens next? Yep, another ace at a big time for Williams to move ahead in the game, but Sharapova not done with this game just yet.

More big serving from the American, this one followed by a heavy forehand down the line, and then an ace to move back to the brink of the title.

This has been a set full of stunning tennis. Engrossing stuff for the play and also the way the two players are trying to dominate with their personalities with the 'come on' shouts.


Serena Williams 6-3, 6-6 Maria Sharapova: It would be disappointing if Sharapova was to break down here and lose the match- she deserves the chance to play a tie-break after the effort she has put into the set.

But it does mean coming through one more service game- two errors from Williams' racquet and an ace bring up three game points and it is a comfortable hold for the Russian.

Really good tennis from both.


Serena Williams 6-3, 6-6 Maria Sharapova: Clean winner from Maria Sharapova to open the tie-breaker, but the mini-break doesn't last very long after an error from the Number 2 Seed.

Williams returns the favour for the clean winner off serve to move up a mini-break in the breaker and uses a big ace and then a strong forehand to move clear for the first time in this set.

The two switch ends with Williams 4-2 up in the breaker, although Serena will feel she missed a big chance to earn a double mini-break in the final point there. How much more fight does Sharapova have in her?

Mistakes from Serena Williams has kept Sharapova in this breaker, and she does look a little tight at the moment.

There is so much emotion on the court and it is fascinating to see both of these players trying to keep a lid on things! Serena battles through a tough point to move 5-3 up, but another tight forehand error which is very wide of the court and we are back on serve with two to come from Sharapova.

Clean winner off the second serve from Serena Williams and that brings up two match points... Total respect for Sharapova in the manner she saves the first off a huge second serve-forehand combination.

But Serena is serving for the match.

Add to the drama with a let cord preventing the ace winner and a stare at the umpire from Serena Williams who had dropped her racquet! Same serve, another ace and Serena Williams has beaten Maria Sharapova for the 16th in a row to win her 19th Grand Slam title.


Serena Williams 6-3, 7-6: I have so much respect for the way that Maria Sharapova hung in during that second set when she was behind throughout and the battling she displayed in the tie-breaker, but it raises some tough questions for her.

The first is how can Maria Sharapova turn the tide after 16 straight losses to Serena Williams? She produced arguably her best tennis, but still couldn't take a set from the American and there is too much motivation for Serena when she steps on the court against Sharapova.

Williams has been caught cold in Grand Slam tournaments over the last two seasons, but Sharapova won't be someone that will ever have that benefit with their meetings likely to come at the business end of events. Add to that the motivation that Serena Williams clearly has behind her when she sees Sharapova on the other side of the court and it is tough to see this trend changing.

Again it was the defensive ability that Williams has compared to Sharapova and the bigger and more consistent serve that saw her come through. The rest of the game is similar, but those slight edges are enough for Williams to hold the key to winning these head to head matches.

It was a great Final and I hope the rest of the Slams live up to it.

MY PICK: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (3 Units)

Australian Open Update: 34-23, + 23.66 Units (107 Units Staked, + 22.11% Yield)

US Open Women's Final Pick 2013- Serena Williams v Victoria Azarenka (September 8th)

Both the women's and men's events will be decided by the top two seeds in the draw this year and the Sunday has been reserved for the women's Final between Serena Williams and Victoria Azarenka.


There is no doubt in my mind that Serena Williams is capable of wiping the floor with any opponent she plays on any given day and she is going to begin this Final as a big favourite considering the form she has shown in the last two weeks.

If she brings that into the Final, Serena should win this one very comfortably, especially if Victoria Azarenka serves as poorly as she had over the last few matches. If Azarenka can improve that area of her game, she has shown she can match Williams off the ground and some of their matches over the last year have been close with the odd blowout for Serena thrown in.

Azarenka has power and accuracy, but most important of all, she has the mental belief that she is capable of hanging around with Williams and all of those factors could make this a closer Final than some people may think. Of course, Azarenka cannot be as generous in allowing her serve to fall as she has been in the last couple of matches because she just won't get a lot of chances on Williams' serve if the American is serving as well as she had.

I also am expecting Serena to have some nerves as she knows the significance of winning more Grand Slams to cement her legacy as one of the best, if not the best, female player to have ever played, while she will also want to be the player that picked up 2 Grand Slam tittles this year. A loss means Azarenka is the player with 2 Grand Slams to finish 2013 and there is the feeling that the World Number 2 has unfinished business having served for the title a year ago.

Azarenka has won the last 2 matches on the hard courts between the players and I do think she is mentally focused on winning this match- whether she has enough quality over two/three hours to actually get through is another matter, but taking 4.5 games on the underdog looks a lot considering how close their matches on the hard courts have been. She has to serve better, in case you haven't gathered that from this post above, but I believe this is the match Azarenka has been focusing on for two weeks and I expect a full performance from her.

I hope she can pull the win as my outright choice at the start of the tournament, but I believe Azarenka can make a Final of this and nerves to perhaps affect Serena if the World Number 2 can stick with her in the early goings.


MY PICK: Victoria Azarenka + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

US Open Update: 29-38, - 9.22 Units (112 Units Staked, - 8.23% Yield)

French Open Women's Final 2013- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova (June 8th)

The second Saturday of the French Open is the day reserved for the Women's Final and I do wonder if the fans will have been able to recover from the emotional rollercoaster they were taken on during the Men's Semi Finals on Friday night.

The first of those Semi Finals was between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal- it wasn't the best Semi Final for the first three sets, with Djokovic's form particularly fluctuating too much to make it a real contest and an early break for Nadal in the fourth looked to have ended the match.

However, from that moment on, the match took a number of turns as momentum shifted both ways and it was a couple of moments that eventually cost Djokovic the match. The first was his constant frustration with the dried out court not being watered and the second was the moment he ran into the net when the point was almost certainly won at 4-3, 40-40 in the final set... The World Number 1 himself admitted that the match was decided at that moment and I would go a step further and say it was that moment that prevented him holding serve and putting himself just a game away from winning the match, something which I believe he would have done.

One question Djokovic has to have is what happened to him in set three- he almost broke Nadal in the first game, but then proceeded to lose the set 6-1 as he struggled with his form and it did seem that Djokovic had some sort of physical problem. While he hasn't discussed that moment yet, it is something to keep in mind with the third Grand Slam of the year just three weeks away.

The crowd were a little flat for the second Semi Final on Friday, even with home hope Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in action and that did lead to a limp performance from the charismatic Frenchman. Playing David Ferrer was always going to be a much bigger challenge than most in the media made out, especially as Ferrer is very comfortable on the clay courts and Tsonga is certainly better on other surfaces.

Ferrer dominated the match for the most part and didn't make the errors that Roger Federer made in the Quarter Final against Tsonga and it was a very straightforward straight sets win.

Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Maria Sharapova: If you listened to some of the commentary during the last couple of weeks on both ITV and Eurosport, you would be forgiven for thinking that Maria Sharapova is the dominate player on the WTA Tour in this generation.

However, if you follow tennis for more than just the Grand Slam events, you would be very aware that the Alpha Female is Serena Williams, a player that is very likely to go down as one of the true legends of the Tour.

Serena has dominated Sharapova ever since losing back to back matches against her back in 2004 at Wimbledon and Los Angeles and even the Russian is the first to admit that she has to do something different to change the outcome in this one. Their recent matches have been fairly comfortable wins for Williams when it is all said and done and Sharapova has won just 1 of the last 18 sets they have competed against one another.

It says a lot that she has got to 6-4 or better in 5 of the last 18 sets as Williams has totally outplayed her- Williams hits the ball better than Sharapova, has more power and has the more consistent serve and all of this points to a win for the American, her second in Roland Garros. Sharapova isn't likely to get forward and attack the net and I can't see what she is capable of doing different to change the outcome of this match.

The problem for Sharapova is that she won't feel comfortable doing what she needs to change this match and I think Serena has had her one slip in this tournament that she seems to have in Grand Slams when coming through against Svetlana Kuznetsova. While I think the Russian will have some success at times in this one, it is hard to see how she can do enough consistently to hurt Serena and I like Williams to come through fairly comfortably.

6 of the last 7 matches between these players has seen Serena Williams win very easily and she can add to that with a 62 64 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

French Open Update: 19-14, + 8.68 Units (64 Units Staked, + 13.56% Yield)

Australian Open 2013 Recap

The first Grand Slam of the season finished less than a week ago and it has already given us a taste of what is to come as far as I am concerned. Some things haven't changed in the last twelve months with both the defending Champions retaining their titles, but there were some breakthrough performances and it does whet the appetite for the coming season.

In terms of the tournament from the picks point of view, it was the worst Grand Slam performance since this blog has been started and am hoping that isn't the start of things to come. It could have been a lot worse if it hadn't been for the final few days of the tournament with winning picks from both the Women's and Men's Finals.


Andy Murray is the second best player in the World, but winning another Grand Slam won't come easy to him: I said at the US Open that I wouldn't have expected Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic if he had played the second Semi Final as the scheduling at that Grand Slam for the Men's tournament have always put the winner of the second Semi Final in a tough spot.

Before I go on, I don't want anyone thinking I don't like Andy Murray... In fact, I am a big fan of the Scot.

But I do think there is something still not quite right with his performances to add another Grand Slam to his name, especially not with the upcoming return of Rafael Nadal.

The problem I have with Murray is that out of the top four players, he is the one that seems to have a really 'low' period in the big matches, a period when he seems to fall away. While Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer are a lot more consistent with their level, Murray does seem to lapse and this why some of his Grand Slam defeats haven't been the heartbreaking losses that the likes of Federer have suffered, but more a fall away.

I know some will blame his body breaking down at a critical moment, but I am not buying that, nor am I buying the fact that he had to play the second Semi Final as there is still a day rest and he had been in a 'short' five-setter.

As I say, Murray is still the second best player in the World in my opinion, and his lapses won't affect him in the majority of tournaments he plays, but winning a Grand Slam with that still happening is unlikely to happen twice, barring real scheduling help.


New breed of players on the WTA Tour: The Woman's game has evolved in recent years into bringing a lot of power onto the Tour and that has meant that players are making their big breakthrough as they get older and the teenage sensations are likely a thing of the past.

However, the performances of Heather Watson, Laura Robson and Sloane Stephens has shown that there are some very good players coming up as the Woman's game is being replenished. The veterans like Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams remain at the top of the game, while Na Li had another sensational tournament, but the youngsters are starting to make inroads.

The big question is which of the trio I mentioned is going to win a Grand Slam tournament? I think Stephens and Robson will find a way to win one of the Majors, but I am not sure Heather Watson will be able to avoid playing someone that will eventually be strong enough and consistent enough to knock her over before she completes a Major win.

If I was going to compare the players with some of the top ones in the World, I would say Stephens is a little like Victoria Azarenka (I don't mean she will definitely reach that level, but her game is similar), Robson reminds me of Petra Kvitova and Watson could perhaps have a career like Caroline Wozniacki.

However, these players are young and development is still the key for them.


Serena Williams is still the best female player on Tour, but can be vulnerable in Grand Slam tournaments: Over the last 14 months, Serena Williams has been pretty much the favourite for every Grand Slam tournament she has played and rightly so.

However, the Australian Open proved yet again that Serena plays one poor match a tournament and thus is likely going to be too short for the majority of occasions when she is priced at less than 2.20 to win a tournament.

Over the last 5 Grand Slams, Ekaterina Makarova, Virginie Razzano and now Sloane Stephens have been able to do enough to knock out Serena, while Jie Zheng pushed her all the way at Wimbledon last year.

That should be a bit of caution for those that like the American in the outright markets going forward, particularly at her worst Major which is the French Open.



Australian Open Final: 18-26, - 8.59 Units (87 Units Staked, - 9.87% Yield)

Season 2013: - 2.62 Units (133 Units Staked, - 1.97% Yield)


Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Tennis Recap July 28-August 5 (London Olympics and Washington)

The Olympic Games are over, as far as the tennis players are concerned anyway, and everyone will be moving to Canada in preparation for the US Open which will be beginning in a little over three weeks from today.

Below I have a few thoughts from the tournaments played this week and I will update the profit/loss from the week and overall for the season.


Congratulations to Andy Murray, but did anyone else feel the two players would have swapped the Finals from here and Wimbledon earlier this month?: It was the biggest win in Andy Murray's career in terms of the appeal the Olympics have, but it is funny to think he will win less Ranking points than if he wins in Toronto at the Masters event next week.


I was glad to see Murray get the first 'big' title of his career and we could see him move on to bigger and better things from here, but I'll speak more about that below.


I couldn't help but wonder, while watching the Final, that I was sure that both players would perhaps have swapped winning at Wimbledon and the Olympics so Murray took home the Grand Slam title and Roger Federer took the Olympic Gold.


However, that was before I heard the Federer interview when he suggested he was disappointed but just happy to have a singles Medal to go along with the Doubles Gold he picked up four years ago and I think he is the less likely of the two that would have swapped the occasion.

In saying that, Federer could have really joined an elite number of players that have won the 'Golden Slam' and it perhaps leaves his place in history under threat from Rafael Nadal if the Spaniard can pick up a few more Grand Slam titles on his bad knees.




What now for Andy Murray?: Andy Murray has the Gold Medal and there is a genuine chance that his belief has now built to such a level that he could win at the US Open in the final Grand Slam of the season.


Murray always felt the atmosphere at Flushing Meadows plus the choice of court would suit his game the best and now he has proven he can beat one of the big three in a best of five set match when it really matters.


I hope this has given him the belief that he can kick on and win his maiden Grand Slam title, while the US Open could represent his best chance to do so.


Rafael Nadal is still to return from injury, Novak Djokovic looks exhausted and Roger Federer is turning 31 and is also in need of a rest.


My concern still comes up in whether Murray can continuously produce when the matches are best of five from the First Round rather than best of three before the Final, but he is playing probably the best tennis of all the players on Tour at this moment.


The draw, as ever, will be all important, but his belief will not be higher and Murray looks the man to beat at this moment.




Is there anyone that can come close to matching Serena Williams in the Women's game?: Serena Williams looked unplayable on the way to winning the Gold Medal in London and completing her own Golden Slam and she has now won all three tournaments she has competed in since being beaten in the French Open First Round.


No player is even close to the form shown by Williams in the last six weeks or so and her swatting of Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova, the current World Number 1 and 3, shows that the 'real' Number 1 remains the American.


Right now, I wouldn't back anyone else to take the US Open title in the Women's game and it is going to take a really special effort to beat Williams. She is serving wonderfully well, hitting powerful groundstrokes all over the court and has the swagger of someone who knows she is going to win.




Juan Martin Del Potro may be back: I love the way Juan Martin Del Potro plays the game of tennis and also the way he is very humble in victory and gracious in defeat.


In 2009, it looked like he was ready to make a real splash on the Main Tour as he reached the Semi Final at the French Open, won the US Open and was the Runner Up in the End of Year Championships... And then he was hit with a wrist injury.


He returned to full health in January 2011, but I have been holding off on believing he was truly back- even last month at Wimbledon I wasn't sure he was going to get to the Quarter Final and I began to worry that he may never return to the form he had displayed three years ago.


How happy am I to think I may just have been wrong to worry?! Del Potro finished with the Bronze Medal here but he pushed Roger Federer all the way in the Semi Final (and may just have taken out everything from the Swiss man in the process) and then beat Novak Djokovic to pick up the Medal.


He was serving exceptionally well in the last two matches, but it was the heaviness and accuracy of his groundstrokes that really impressed me. He also showed the lack of fear that has made him the only winner of a Grand Slam outside of the top three in the last 30 Grand Slam events and I think Del Potro could be the biggest danger at the US Open where he has history.


If the draw is right, Del Potro may just be able to repeat his feat from 2009, although the best of five format can be a lot trickier to negotiate.




Daily Picks Final: 10-10, + 0.32 Units (39 Units Staked)


Outright Picks: - 0.80 Units (12 Units Staked)


Overall Weekly Final: - 0.48 Units (51 Units Staked)


Season 2012: + 58.85 Units (705 Units Staked, 8.35% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Wimbledon Recap 2012 (July 8th)

The third Grand Slam of the season has come and gone and we have crowned two more players as Champions this season. They are both familiar to winning here at SW19 as Roger Federer and Serena Williams became the latest winners of one of the big prizes this season following on from Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Victoria Azarenka and Maria Sharapova.

Below, I have a few thoughts from the tournament over the last couple of weeks and then I will show the profit/loss from the tournament and the season as a whole.


Roger Federer is once again a Grand Slam Champion: The last time Roger Federer was lifting one of the big prizes in tennis was back at the Australian Open in 2010 and there would have been a lot of people that thought he was unlikely to win another Grand Slam tournament.


However, he has been working hard to get back to the pinnacle of the Men's game and that has seen him perform the most consistently of all the players since the US Open last year, although he still had not really come close to winning a Grand Slam with the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal looking a little too strong for him.


Even at this tournament, it did seem that winning the tournament was likely to be beyond him, but his come from behind win over Julien Benneteau proved to be pivotal. Federer also saved his two best performances for the final two matches against Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray and that has also seen him reclaim the World Number 1 Ranking.


Federer is set to surpass the record that Pete Sampras had held for most weeks at World Number 1 and that should also leave him in good stead going into the Olympics and the US Open later this season.


It truly is a remarkable achievement to see Federer return to the Number 1 spot, particularly in this era where the depth in the Men's game is so strong and I do think it strengthens his claims to go down as the 'Greatest Player in History'. A lot of people would have ruled him out ever winning another Grand Slam, let alone getting back to Number 1, but it is the mark of the man that he has managed to do so.


I have always thought it would be tough for Federer to go down as the 'Greatest' if Rafa Nadal can reach, say 15 Grand Slams, particularly with the head to head record between the two players, but if Federer can add another couple of Slams to his record, it will be tough to surpass him.


I remember hearing Federer speak about getting to 20 Grand Slams before he retires and you wouldn't want to bet against him considering the desire and belief he has shown to get back to World Number 1... Do I think he will get to 20? I find that tough to believe with Federer reaching 31 years old next month and with the likes of Djokovic and Nadal around.




Is Federer now the favourite to win the Gold medal at the Olympics?: I think the fact the Olympics are going to be played on grass was always going to help Federer more than it hurt him, but I still think Rafael Nadal is the player that could cause problems and should still be the man to beat, along with Novak Djokovic, when it comes to the Gold Medal.


The best news about reaching World Number 1 for Federer is that he doesn't necessarily have to beat both Nadal and Djokovic, as he would have had to at this tournament if the Spaniard had not been beaten early, but the draw is still very important to his chances.


The grass courts are probably the only courts where Federer is less vulnerable to the big hitters, but the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Tomas Berdych (who also beat Federer at the Olympics in Athens in 2004) would still think they have a chance of knocking him off, especially in a best of three sets match.


As I said, the draw is very important to decide who should be the favourite, but I still think the two Men immediately below him in the Rankings should be leading the markets.




How will Andy Murray be received by the public following his loss: First things first, I think Andy Murray should be given a lot of credit for reaching the Wimbledon Final and his performance should not be criticised as he really did give his all and came up a little short.


There was a moment in the second set when he missed a couple of balls that he had been dealing with previously and there were some comparisons with his loss to Rafael Nadal in the Semi Final at Wimbledon last year when he had an easy forehand to go a set and a break up on the Spaniard.


While there can't be anything disparaging to be said about Murray's performance, I think the genuine disappointment and tears at the post-match interview on the court will have adhered him to the millions that were watching on TV and I think he will have more sympathy and fans from that.


Murray apologised for Federer as he felt it may have taken away from the Swiss man's victory, but it did show a side of him that many would not have seen before and I think that can only be a good thing for a player that doesn't look the happiest on the court.




Why do so many think Murray does not deserve the support of the home fans?: I have heard from a few people that they wouldn't be backing Andy Murray after what he said about the England team back in 2006.


If you don't know, all Murray said was that he was supporting 'anyone but England' in the football World Cup, but it was a tongue-in-cheek comment that seems to have riled up a lot of English people.


I heard many say they don't like him because of those comments, but I am unashamedly a Murray fan- yes, he can look a little miserable at time, but he seems to have a dry sense of humour that I appreciate and I think he is actually a lot easier to get on with off the court than on it.


Personally, I have never seen the need to 'support' a person based on their nationality when it comes to individual sports as they are doing things for themselves first and foremost- so if someone says they don't like Murray because he looks a miserable bastard, fair enough... But to not like him for a comment made as a teenager looks a little silly as far as I am concerned, especially as I don't think anyone would want to be judged by what they said as teenagers I'm sure.




People should talk about a 'top three' not a 'top four': I have already said I like Andy Murray so I hope this is not read as being too critical of him, but I do think the use of 'big four' should be put on the back-burner by those in the media from now on and until Murray wins a Grand Slam.


The top three players look a level above Murray at the moment and I think there is actually a smaller gap between him and David Ferrer at Number 5 than there is between Murray and Rafa Nadal at Number 3.


We have to appreciate all the success Murray has had already in his career, but I just think it is doing the Djokovic, Federer and Nadal's of this World a disservice by not placing them head and shoulders above the rest in the Men's field.


IF Murray can win a Grand Slam, he would at least be in the same kind of conversation as the three players above him, especially as it could lead to further success at Slam level, but this term 'big four' has to be retired until Murray does win one.




Serena Williams is back on her throne: All the talk pre-Wimbledon was about the huge achievements that Maria Sharapova had made by winning just her fourth Grand Slam, albeit completing a career Grand Slam, but the real Queen of Women's tennis can now say she is back on her throne after winning the title here.


Serena Williams has managed to beat a life-threatening illness and won her first Grand Slam since winning Wimbledon in July 2010, but that win means she has more Wimbledon titles than Sharapova has Grand Slams- that should put it into perspective what kind of achievements Sharapova has and how much they are blown out of proportion compared to her peer in Williams.


It was important for Williams to win this title having fallen far short at the Australian and French Opens this season and also being surprised by Sam Stosur in the Final of the US Open last year.


The win will give Serena the belief that she can go on and really stamp her place in the history of the Women's game with further Grand Slam success and I think there is a vacuum in the Women's tour at the moment to suggest she can go on and dominate.


I think Serena will be the favourite to win the Olympic Gold Medal and the US Open and I wouldn't want to bet against her right now with the confidence likely to have reached new heights.




Wimbledon is the latest in successful Grand Slam events: Wimbledon is the latest tournament where the outright picks have been very successful as I once again managed to get both the Men's and Women's Champion in the staking plan.


That means I have been successful in identifying the Winner of both the Men's and Women's events at all three Grand Slams so far.


Anyone who reads the blog with any regularity will know I don't like talking about my successes any more than the failures, but this is one thing I am extremely happy with.




Wimbledon Daily Picks Final: 21-17, + 8.88 Units (72 Units Staked)


Wimbledon Outright Picks Final: + 12.50 Units (9 Units Staked)


Wimbledon 2012 Final: + 21.38 Units (81 Units Staked)


Season 2012 Update: + 73.12 Units (609 Units Staked, 12.01% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Wimbledon Day 12 Picks- Women's Final (July 7th 2012)

It is funny how quickly these Grand Slam events seem to come and go and we are in the final stretch as we reach the Women's Final.

The big news ahead of this Final is the illness that Agnieszka Radwanska is suffering with, one that forced her to pull out of her pre-Final press conference as she was finding it difficult breathing.

According to her Coach, this illness has been lingering since before the Quarter Final with Maria Kirilenko, although there were no real signs of it against Angelique Kerber in the Semi Final (how much of that is down to the poor performance from the German is up to you decide).

There were some rumours that Radwanska would have to pull out of this Final before it took place, but those seem to be unfounded and the Pole should take her place on Saturday.

The biggest challenge for Radwanska may not be the illness anyway, but it could be facing Serena Williams who has looked very strong in her last couple of matches as she has upped her performances in time to have a chance to win her first Grand Slam title since winning in SW19 back in 2010.

It is funny to think that Williams will be going for her fifth Wimbledon title, that is more titles in one Grand Slam than Maria Sharapova has in her entire career, and I can't help feel that Serena has been under-appreciated. She is not as warm as her sister Venus, especially on court, but I just think that there are plenty of people that will talk about Serena in a much more positive light once she finally hangs up the racquet for good.

I also think it would be a remarkable achievement that a little under two years ago was when Serena was diagnosed with a blood clot on the lungs that may have been life-threatening and the mere fact she is healthy is as big as achievement as actually going ahead and winning a Grand Slam tournament.

Williams has to be careful though as she lost as a big favourite against Sam Stosur last year at the US Open and she has to put in one more major effort to secure the title.


Anyone who followed the outright picks from the start of the tournament will be sitting on Serena Williams at 4.00 already and may just be happy to let that ride. At the moment, Williams is the big favourite to win this match so you also have the chance to lay off and ensure you finish with a profit from this match.


My Women's Final Pick:

Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: We have heard all the rumours about how Agnieszka Radwanska is feeling right now, but I would have quite liked Serena Williams on this handicap anyway as I think she has the shots and the serve to cause all sorts of pressure for the Polish player throughout the contest.

We have seen previously that players that can out-hit Radwanska will cause her problems and it is no surprise that Victoria Azarenka has dominated her this season. While Azarenka has better movement than Serena, I think Williams has shown off her athletic ability in the last two matches and so I think she can cause Radwanska plenty of problems despite the awkward angles she will be given at times.

The serve is the critical difference and if Williams is serving anything like how she has been in her last two matches, I think she is going to get enough cheap points to up the ante on Radwanska. Once that scoreboard pressure builds, it may be hard for Radwanska to keep up, especially with the second serve she possesses.

There is also every chance that this Final is played indoors with the forecast not looking great for the weekend and that will give Serena another edge as it should make her shots feel that much heavier and quicker for Radwanska to deal with.

Serena Williams is 2-0 up in the head to head, but this will be the first time they have played since a 2008 Quarter Final here, and Radwanska is vastly improved since then. However, she is still the same counter attacking player in a lot of ways and I don't see the Pole dominating a lot of rallies in this match and dictating the points.

Both girls will be nervous for their own reasons (Serena said she has felt a little anxious at times when it comes to winning another Grand Slam, and this is the first Slam Final for Radwanska), but Serena has the better tools for this match in my opinion and she should win through 6-3, 6-3.

With Williams likely to have the match on her racquet, this will be the pick for the Final for me.


MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)


Wimbledon Update: 19-17, + 5.08 Units (68 Units Staked)

Tennis Recap (May 13-20, Rome)

It was a horrible week in terms of picking daily winners, but the outright market proved very profitable with both Maria Sharapova and Rafael Nadal winning the Women's and Men's events respectively.

This is the last real important tournament before the French Open which begins next Monday, although we do have events in France and Germany this week. The problem with those events is the motivation of the top seeded players that may want to reserve some gas for the first week of the Grand Slam next week.

Anyway, below is just a few thoughts from the Rome event that was concluded today:


Rafael Nadal back up to World Number 2: I think Roger Federer would have been secretly hoping that Novak Djokovic could have won this event as soon as he was beaten in the Semi Finals to the Serbian.


Rafael Nadal's win in Rome means they have moved up to World Number 2 and that means, once again, that Roger Federer is likely going to have to beat the two best players in the World if he wants to win the French Open for a second time.


By moving up to Number 2, Federer can at least think he has a 50-50 chance of avoiding Rafael Nadal in his draw and know he could take his chances if Nadal and Djokovic were involved in an epic Semi Final, and those little things can make the difference when winning a Grand Slam or not.


It looks unlikely that Federer can get the Number 2 position back before Wimbledon, something I think he was looking for, unless there is a serious surprise at Roland Garros.




Andy Murray's back injury: Andy Murray exited the tournament in Rome with little fuss against Richard Gasquet and subsequently told the journalists at his press conference that he is suffering with a back injury that has been niggling him since December.


This doesn't bode well for him in an important year with the French Open, Wimbledon and the Olympics all coming up in quick succession and the US Open to follow. Murray has always made the first few rounds of a Grand Slam event much more difficult than they need to be and this back injury is only going to hinder his chances even more if he is  as uncomfortable as he suggested.


He will always need a nice draw, a bit of luck and the nerve at crucial times if he is going to win a Grand Slam, but an injury is not going to help his cause and I just can't see a breakthrough coming for him this season.




I've changed my mind, Serena Williams is the player to beat at Roland Garros: Last week, I said that Serena Williams was a little short as the favourite to win in Paris this season as the conditions in Madrid helped her win that tournament.


However, she looked imperious this week in Rome and was cruising through her matches and was only prevented from winning the tournament because she had to pull out with an injury. Williams has since said it was a precautionary pull-out and she expects to be fully ready for Paris.


With Victoria Azarenka's participation in Paris in doubt, the only player I would even consider backing to beat Serena Williams is Maria Sharapova, but if the American gets the right kind of draw, I can't look beyond her.


Williams has looked motivated and focused on what has been her worst surface to play on... Pencil her name in for Wimbledon if she stays healthy, especially with the form she has shown in the last month.




The Men's event is not much more open than the Women's: You get these big articles ahead of the Grand Slams that seems to list up to 8 Men that can possibly win the event and, while I don't agree it ever gets to that many, you can understand the excitement about these Slams.


The French Open doesn't exactly inspire me the same way to be honest as I can't look beyond the top two players in the World as to who will win this event.


The likes of Roger Federer, Juan Martin Del Potro, Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray could possibly throw a spanner in the works, but I would almost certainly think the player they trouble is Novak Djokovic rather than Rafael Nadal.


I would heavily favour Nadal against any of the four players listed on a clay court, and I think he has proven that he has the better of Djokovic on the surface after reversing his surprise losses to the Serbian last season including here at Rome.


One year ago, Nadal was a short odds against shot to win the French Open, but there is no chance of getting anything like that this year. Already, I do favour Nadal to take this tournament unless he gets a gruesome draw and even then I would just hope that his price comes out rather than expecting him to lose.




Weekly Update: 9-12, - 6.32 Units (41 Units Staked)
Outright Update: 2-1, + 8.75 Units (8 Units Staked)


Season Update: + 36.51 Units (403 Units Staked, 9.06% Yield)


Season 2011: + 82.02 Units