Wimbledon Tennis Day 12 Picks 2017- Ladies Final (July 15th)

The Ladies Final at Wimbledon 2017 will involve a Williams again, but it is 37 year old Venus Williams who has come into the tournament that her younger sister Serena could not defend due to pregnancy.

For a long time it was Venus who was the dominant Williams sister on the famous lawns in SW19, but now she will be looking to pull to within one of Serena by taking the title home on Saturday.

That won't be easy against Garbine Muguruza who has played in two previous Grand Slam Finals, both times against Serena Williams. She won the last one of those at the French Open in 2016, but it was Serena Williams who beat Muguruza here at Wimbledon in the 2015 Final.

The Spaniard plays with plenty of power and comes into the Final as the favourite, but Venus Williams has the experience and arguably is playing on her most natural surface.


Venus Williams v Garbine Muguruza: I picked Venus Williams as the winner of this tournament at the start of the event and she has already provided a big return having reached the Final. That means those who followed the outright picks are now sitting on a big priced winner in what has been set as an almost pick 'em Final, but I think it may be worth letting things play out with my feeling being Venus Williams can go on and win the title here for the sixth time.

Both players have only dropped one set in the tournament so far and while Garbine Muguruza had the more straight-forward Semi Final win, I do think Venus Williams has improved in each passing match through the tournament. The serve has been a huge weapon for Venus Williams and it was that delivery which kept Johanna Konta in awkward positions in their Semi Final.

The serve working as well as it has been also means Venus Williams has been able to play with some freedom on the return games and that has seen her put some real pressure on opponents. As well as Garbine Muguruza has served at times, the raw numbers suggest she has been put under some pressure but has managed to play the key points at 30-30, deuce or break point down very effectively.

Some of the players Muguruza have played will be kicking themselves they didn't play those points a little better, but Williams has shown some strength at the key moments in her recent matches. That has been most evident on the serve where Venus Williams has been broken just twice in four matches having dropped serve four times in her first two matches, but it also has seen Venus convert a few more break point opportunities at a better percentage than she was earlier in the tournament.

The Spaniard has not been broken in her last two matches which will certainly give her some confidence, but I don't think Venus Williams will be as loose with her play as Svetlana Kuznetsova and Magdalena Rybarikova were. It won't be easy to get into the Muguruza games if she continues to hit as big as she has been, but I am not sure she has been playing as well as the straight sets victories in her last two matches suggest.

Kuznetsova certainly had her chances in their Quarter Final where there were not many points between them, and I think Venus Williams' comfort on the grass means she may be a little more confident when the chances do come her way. Venus Williams has been very strong when facing those players outside the top ten in the World Rankings on the grass and I think the performances so far this week makes me believe the wrong player is favoured in this one.

If Muguruza continues to play way above average on the big points, then of course she is a big threat, but Venus Williams has been close to her best and I like the veteran American to keep the Williams name on the Wimbledon Champion board.

MY PICKS: Venus Williams @ 2.10 Paddy Power (0 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 44-48, - 6.58 Units (179 Units Staked, - 3.68% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 14 Picks 2016- Women's Final (June 4th)

The Friday Semi Finals are in the books and it was a very good day for the picks in what has been a tough tournament to date.

Now we are left with just two matches in the French Open 2016 as the Women's and Men's Finals have been set and hopefully the tournament will have two that at least end this Grand Slam with some really positive memories.

At the moment the overriding feeling out of the French Open is the stresses the organisers had to go through earlier in the week and the disappointing decisions made for some players who felt they were forced to play in sub-par conditions. There will be a hope that two memorable Finals will at least have this tournament remembered for something a little more positive.


Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 games v Serena Williams: I guess I shouldn't be surprised that Serena Williams is the favourite to win this Grand Slam Final against Garbine Muguruza, but that looks wrong to me. If you have watched any of the last few days at the French Open, you can't have too many doubts that the better tennis is being played by the Spaniard who also has previous having beaten Serena here at Roland Garros to really announce herself on the professional Tour.

There will be nerves, but Muguruza has to look back at the experience of the Wimbledon Final to give her a chance to win this French Open. She might have lost that Grand Slam Final last year, but the experiences should give Muguruza a chance to avenge that defeat to Serena Williams.

I also can't ignore the fact that Serena Williams looks to be carrying some sort of injury which Kiki Bertens may have taken advantage of if she was fully fit in the Semi Final. The injury can't be rested by Serena as she is playing for the third straight day and she can't hope that Muguruza is not healthy as Bertens was on Friday.

The big hitting game of Muguruza can expose some of the movement issues that Williams has been having and this looks a match that is very much on the racquet of the Spaniard. That might be strange to say considering how much power and experience Williams has, but I do think the World Number 1 would have been beaten if she had faced Muguruza in the last two Rounds with the performances she produced.

Maybe Williams can magically come out and be at 100% but even then this would be a tough match for her and I like Muguruza with the games and I expect the Spaniard will win her first Grand Slam title on Saturday.

MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

French Open Update: 27-30, - 10.16 Units (113 Units Staked, - 8.99% Yield)

Wimbledon Day 12 Picks 2015: Women's Final Serena Williams v Garbine Muguruza (July 11th)

Before I go on to talk about the Ladies Final to be played at Wimbledon on Saturday, I have to mention the two men's Semi Finals which has left us with a repeat of the Final from last year.

While Novak Djokovic managed to come through a difficult first set before taking control against Richard Gasquet, Roger Federer was at his absolute best in dismissing Andy Murray in straight sets in what is arguably the best performance he has had since last winning Wimbledon in 2012.

You have to remember that Federer was the underdog in the match with Murray- however, there was only ever going to be one winner after he saved a break point in the first game of the match as Federer completely dominated behind serve.

It was the most unexpected performance from Federer, even if I did think he could win the match, because I though Murray has been in very strong form and looked very capable of winning his second Wimbledon title. There was absolutely no way I figured that the match would be completed in straight sets for either player, but Federer was barely threatened on serve after the first game and had Murray constantly under pressure in his own service games.

Federer was imperious and you can't really blame Andy Murray for anything because there really wasn't a lot he could do in the face of what Federer was producing all day. Murray will have to take the positives away from this tournament, even if he would have expected to win it, and he now moves onto the Davis Cup tie against France at Queens Club next week before turning his attention to the North American hard courts.

I expect Murray to be amongst the favourites to win in New York, but for now the world will be looking to see if Roger Federer can produce the same kind of performance on Sunday as he did on Friday. If he can serve as well as he did in the Semi Final, I think there is every chance he can beat Novak Djokovic and win his eighth title at SW19, but this is going to be a big test against a player that beat him here in five sets twelve months ago.

My early feeling is that Novak Djokovic might be under-rated after a couple of iffy performances, but Roger Federer turned the clock back so well that this looks like another memorable Final in the making.


Garbine Muguruza + 5.5 games v Serena Williams: Maybe it is because she is playing in her maiden Grand Slam or maybe it is the domineering Serena Williams on the other side of the court, but I can't help feel that Garbine Muguruza is being severely under-rated in the Final.

It has felt that everyone has chosen to ignore the fact that Muguruza crushed Serena Williams in a little over an hour and for the loss of just four games in the Second Round of the French Open in 2014. Or they've chose to ignore the competitive three set match these two played at the Australian Open in the Fourth Round in January, but either way I think this going to be a very intriguing Final.

I am not buying the suggestion that Williams is going to steamroll Muguruza who has the power to really push Serena backwards and also the shot-making behind a big serve to give her every chance. There is a feeling that nerves could play a part, but I am not so concerned with that after seeing how Muguruza handled herself in the Semi Final and the mental strength she displayed in coming back from a break down in the third set, having lost 5 games in a row to also drop the second set.

The Muguruza serve is just as capable of setting up the cheap points as Serena's is when it is on form, although I can understand the edge being given to Williams considering her own form. Both players have some excellent names beaten to reach the Final so I am sure that neither will have any confidence issues and that should make this one of the more memorable Wimbledon Ladies Finals in recent years.

8 of the last 9 Finals have been decided in straight sets, but I think this is one that certainly has the chance of going the distance. I expect Muguruza won't be intimidated by taking on a player that she has beaten and taken the distance in their last two Grand Slam matches and I think the Spaniard plays with the confidence that can make this very competitive.

Muguruza wasn't concerned with nerves in her Semi Final and clearly enjoys playing on the big stage. While I do think Williams has the serve that will produce more aces, I also think Muguruza can get plenty of balls back with aggressive returns that might just rattle Williams.

And nerves will certainly not be on one side of the court as Williams continues her bid to secure a second 'Serena Slam' and to maintain her chance of winning all four Grand Slams in the same calendar year. You can't say that hasn't played a part in the last two Slams at the French Open and Wimbledon and Williams will also know how capable Muguruza is in not just absorbing her pace, but fighting fire with fire.

I really like Muguruza and do believe this is a player that will win multiple Grand Slams once the first one is in the bag. She is supremely confident and has the easy power to make her very dangerous so I wanted to find a way to back her in some form in this match.

Unlike some of the 'experts', I think there is a decent chance of the upset, but I am focusing on the handicap markets instead with Muguruza being hugely disrespected.

I wouldn't put off anyone backing Garbine Muguruza with a 1.5 head start on the set betting which looks a big price considering Muguruza has won 3 of the last 5 sets these two have competed against one another. However, I am going with the 5.5 game head start for the Spaniard which will still be able to come in if this is a competitive two setter win for Williams. I don't think Muguruza has a similar freeze that Sabine Lisicki did in the Final two years ago or how Eugenie Bouchard played against Petra Kvitova because I think she is more talented than both and has more to offer against Serena Williams.

This should be a fun Final and one where Muguruza has a chance to announce herself to the world on a larger scale.

MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza + 5.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 24-25, - 5.19 Units (97 Units Staked, - 5.35% Yield)