The final day at the Australian Open is headlined by the men's Singles Final and this year it is Marin Cilic taking on Roger Federer for the title.
While the women's Final was contested by the top two players in the World Rankings, the men's Final is between the Number 2 and Number 3 Ranked players.
Roger Federer has been in fantastic form so far this week and has yet to drop a set, but Marin Cilic is perhaps the most dangerous opponent he has faced. I do think this will be a good Final with the way both players have been playing and I am looking forward to the early Sunday start as we close the first Grand Slam of the season.
So what is next for the tennis picks after this weekend? The ATP Tour actually has a free week with the Davis Cup ties in the opening Round of the World Group being played next weekend.
I will look out for any picks from the WTA St Petersburg event that is being played this week with some of the top players on the Tour taking part in that event. However with just the one tournament of note up until Friday it may not be a lot of options available and so the tennis picks this week are likely to be out without the consistency of day to day picks.
On Friday I should have some picks from the Davis Cup to add to any selections from the WTA St Petersburg event.
The week after this one we will get to see three ATP events beginning with the 'Golden Swing' in South America, the indoor European season and the North American hard court events all beginning. That means a busy month is ahead before we get to the first Masters event of the season at Indian Wells which begins in early March after the first ATP 500 events have been placed in the books in February.
Marin Cilic-Roger Federer over 38.5 games: The feeling was that we were heading towards a repeat of the 2017 Australian Open Final when Rafael Nadal took a 2-1 lead over Marin Cilic in their Quarter Final. However it was not to be for the World Number 1 who suffered an injury in the fourth set and Marin Cilic took full advantage to reach another Grand Slam Final.
The run to the Final here in Melbourne also means Cilic is going to reach a career high of World Number 3 whether he wins or loses here. The all around game that Cilic possesses does make him a very dangerous opponent for anyone he plays with the big serve and the heavy groundstrokes able to dictate rallies to his liking.
Redemption will also be on the mind of Cilic going into Sunday's Final.
Last year at Wimbledon was perhaps the lowest point of Cilic's career as an injury taken into the Final almost forced him to pull out of the match. He tried hard to compete, but emotionally it was all too much for Cilic who openly shed tears on Centre Court and then battled against all odds to at least complete the Final.
That would have gotten Cilic a lot of sympathy, but it is never easy to have the crowd support you over Roger Federer who was also his opponent at Wimbledon on that day.
Federer has moved through to the Final without dropping a set in the Australian Open and he should be well rested after Hyeon Chung pulled out of their Semi Final when trailing 6-1, 5-2. That could be important for Federer, although I don't doubt his fitness, and I don't think either Cilic or the defending Champion will feel they could come into this Final in much better condition.
A healthy Cilic has also been a tough test for Federer to deal with even if the Swiss player has gotten the better of the head to head. When Cilic is serving to his maximum level, Federer can struggle to get a look in and the match Tomas Berdych played against Federer in the Quarter Final has to be on the mind of Cilic going into this Final.
Berdych has perhaps been the closest player to take a set from Federer this week and he made a fast start which put Federer under pressure. He even served for the first set and Cilic is arguably a similar player, but superior in most departments these days. Cilic will be able to set his points up with the big serve, if it is firing, and he is securer with his movement and groundstrokes than Berdych, while I also think Cilic is a little more comfortable at the net.
Suffice to say I don't imagine this Final going the same way as the one at Wimbledon, especially with Cilic much healthier coming into this match.
Matches between these players may have generally ended in favour of Federer, but Cilic has beaten him at the US Open on the way to winning the title there and also held a 2-0 lead in sets at Wimbledon in 2016 before missing a huge chance to beat Federer there too.
In fact Cilic has taken at least one set in four of the last five matches between him and Federer including at the ATP Finals a few months ago. Yes he has only won one of those matches, but I would be massively surprised if Cilic is able to record another straight sets win over Federer at a Grand Slam with the way the latter is playing.
However Cilic is playing well enough to take a set and he is serving well enough to make Federer dig deep to turn this back around. It would be a surprise if Federer is not able to win at least one set and I can see this Final being another classic Down Under with at least four sets needed.
I can't see either player falling away easily in the match and the serving both have produced suggests this is a match that is going to feature four tight sets at the least. That should give the Final every chance of covering this number of games set in the total games market.
A tiebreaker or two can't be ruled out and I think three competitive sets will be enough to cover the number as long as neither player wins this match in straight sets. The numbers being produced by both men suggests that is unlikely to be the case barring something unforeseen happening and I am looking for the total games to be surpassed.
MY PICKS: Marin Cilic-Roger Federer Over 37.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 35-38, - 4.84 Units (125 Units Staked, - 3.87% Yield)
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Showing posts with label Day 14 Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Day 14 Picks. Show all posts
Saturday, 27 January 2018
Saturday, 28 January 2017
Australian Open Tennis Day 14 Picks 2017- Men's Final (January 29th)
The Women's Final had all of the emotion that we were expecting prior to Venus Williams and Serena Williams taking to the court, but it lacked the drama once the younger Williams sister settled down in the first set. She managed to do that just quickly enough to avoid going a set down and from the moment Serena moved into a 5-3 lead in the first set, the Final was only going in one direction.
All credit to Venus Williams who fought impressively to stay with Serena as long as possible in the second set, but there were no real alarms for the new World Number 1 as she won an Open era most 23 Grand Slam titles.
The Serena Williams reign looks far from over and she is likely to go into the remaining three Grand Slams as a fairly heavy favourite and much shorter than the price she went off for the Australian Open. It is now up to the rest of the field to show they can bridge the new gap that Serena Williams looked to have produced from the rest, but it is a long season and I would expect Angelique Kerber and Karolina Pliskova in particular to go deep in some of the majors left.
While there was plenty of emotion in the Women's Final on Saturday, I would expect emotions and drama in the Men's Final which looks much more competitive on paper than the Serena v Venus one did.
This might not have been the Final we would have expected at the start of the tournament, but most will be satisfied at getting the chance to see Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal compete for a Slam title again. It might be the last time we get to see that and I think both players might also feel they won't have a better chance to add to their own personal haul of titles which only intensifies the drama and desire for both.
The last couple of days have been tough for the picks with both falling a little short, but that doesn't distract from a very good tournament with just one more match to come on Sunday.
Rafael Nadal v Roger Federer: This has been a surprising run for both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in getting to another Grand Slam Final at the Australian Open- both are coming back from injuries and perhaps were looking to build into the 2017 season, but they are deserved Finalists and it is the kind of match that will draw the attention of both hardcore and casual tennis fans.
There hasn't been a bigger or better rivalry than Rafael Nadal versus Roger Federer in the last fifteen years although the head to to head is slightly skewed in favour of the Spaniard. It is Nadal with the 23-11 head to head advantage over Federer but it is only 10-9 when they are not playing on the clay courts.
However that is when some statistics can be blinding as most of the Federer wins came earlier in their meetings and Nadal is actually 8-4 in non-clay court matches against the Swiss star since beating him in the Wimbledon Final in 2008. I also think it would be foolish to ignore the fact that Nadal has won all 3 previous matches between these players at the Australian Open and he has won each a little more comfortably.
Their first meeting here was in the Final in 2009 that Nadal managed to win in 5 sets, he then beat Federer in 2012 in 4 sets and 2014 in straight sets.
The question is how Nadal is feeling after a bruising five setter in the Semi Final which was played on Friday, a day after Federer had got through in a five setter himself. The feeling is that both are going to be a little sore from an unexpected run, but neither is likely to be back out on court for at least a couple of weeks (I expect Nadal to pull out of the Spanish Davis Cup team regardless of the outcome of the Final) so I think both will be capable of leaving everything out there.
Nadal was a little up and down with his serve in the Semi Final but that has been a shot that has worked for him through the Australian Open and he has been very good at the big points. For all the 'experts' suggesting this court is playing significantly faster than previous years, I am of the opinion that the Rod Laver Arena is not going to let Roger Federer breeze through his service games like the courts at Wimbledon and the US Open can do.
It certainly won't be the case against a returner of the ability of the Spaniard and Federer did have some issues with the serve against Stan Wawrinka in his own Semi Final. Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori combined had 22 break points against the Federer serve and I think Nadal will fashion his chances.
Mentally I do think Nadal has the edge- Federer might have won their last match in the Basel Final in 2015, but I think Nadal is much healthier than he was back then and Federer is perhaps not at the same level. That snapped a run of five consecutive wins for Nadal of which four had been played on the hard courts including at the ATP World Tour Finals which you would think would favour Federer significantly.
I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal is able to get this done in three or four sets, but I will simply back the Spaniard to take the title home at a decent price. Playing in the second Semi Final doesn't put me off Nadal when you remember he had that epic match in the second Semi Final against Fernando Verdasco in 2009 before winning the title in five sets against Federer two days later.
Back then Federer looked healthier and had come through his own Semi Final in straight sets and I am just a little unsure that he enjoys the matches with Nadal as much he says he does. The Spaniard just has that 'Indian Sign' over Federer and I like Nadal to end his wait for another Grand Slam title on Sunday.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 48-36, + 22.10 Units (162 Units Staked, + 13.64% Yield)
All credit to Venus Williams who fought impressively to stay with Serena as long as possible in the second set, but there were no real alarms for the new World Number 1 as she won an Open era most 23 Grand Slam titles.
The Serena Williams reign looks far from over and she is likely to go into the remaining three Grand Slams as a fairly heavy favourite and much shorter than the price she went off for the Australian Open. It is now up to the rest of the field to show they can bridge the new gap that Serena Williams looked to have produced from the rest, but it is a long season and I would expect Angelique Kerber and Karolina Pliskova in particular to go deep in some of the majors left.
While there was plenty of emotion in the Women's Final on Saturday, I would expect emotions and drama in the Men's Final which looks much more competitive on paper than the Serena v Venus one did.
This might not have been the Final we would have expected at the start of the tournament, but most will be satisfied at getting the chance to see Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal compete for a Slam title again. It might be the last time we get to see that and I think both players might also feel they won't have a better chance to add to their own personal haul of titles which only intensifies the drama and desire for both.
The last couple of days have been tough for the picks with both falling a little short, but that doesn't distract from a very good tournament with just one more match to come on Sunday.
Rafael Nadal v Roger Federer: This has been a surprising run for both Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in getting to another Grand Slam Final at the Australian Open- both are coming back from injuries and perhaps were looking to build into the 2017 season, but they are deserved Finalists and it is the kind of match that will draw the attention of both hardcore and casual tennis fans.
There hasn't been a bigger or better rivalry than Rafael Nadal versus Roger Federer in the last fifteen years although the head to to head is slightly skewed in favour of the Spaniard. It is Nadal with the 23-11 head to head advantage over Federer but it is only 10-9 when they are not playing on the clay courts.
However that is when some statistics can be blinding as most of the Federer wins came earlier in their meetings and Nadal is actually 8-4 in non-clay court matches against the Swiss star since beating him in the Wimbledon Final in 2008. I also think it would be foolish to ignore the fact that Nadal has won all 3 previous matches between these players at the Australian Open and he has won each a little more comfortably.
Their first meeting here was in the Final in 2009 that Nadal managed to win in 5 sets, he then beat Federer in 2012 in 4 sets and 2014 in straight sets.
The question is how Nadal is feeling after a bruising five setter in the Semi Final which was played on Friday, a day after Federer had got through in a five setter himself. The feeling is that both are going to be a little sore from an unexpected run, but neither is likely to be back out on court for at least a couple of weeks (I expect Nadal to pull out of the Spanish Davis Cup team regardless of the outcome of the Final) so I think both will be capable of leaving everything out there.
Nadal was a little up and down with his serve in the Semi Final but that has been a shot that has worked for him through the Australian Open and he has been very good at the big points. For all the 'experts' suggesting this court is playing significantly faster than previous years, I am of the opinion that the Rod Laver Arena is not going to let Roger Federer breeze through his service games like the courts at Wimbledon and the US Open can do.
It certainly won't be the case against a returner of the ability of the Spaniard and Federer did have some issues with the serve against Stan Wawrinka in his own Semi Final. Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori combined had 22 break points against the Federer serve and I think Nadal will fashion his chances.
Mentally I do think Nadal has the edge- Federer might have won their last match in the Basel Final in 2015, but I think Nadal is much healthier than he was back then and Federer is perhaps not at the same level. That snapped a run of five consecutive wins for Nadal of which four had been played on the hard courts including at the ATP World Tour Finals which you would think would favour Federer significantly.
I wouldn't be surprised if Nadal is able to get this done in three or four sets, but I will simply back the Spaniard to take the title home at a decent price. Playing in the second Semi Final doesn't put me off Nadal when you remember he had that epic match in the second Semi Final against Fernando Verdasco in 2009 before winning the title in five sets against Federer two days later.
Back then Federer looked healthier and had come through his own Semi Final in straight sets and I am just a little unsure that he enjoys the matches with Nadal as much he says he does. The Spaniard just has that 'Indian Sign' over Federer and I like Nadal to end his wait for another Grand Slam title on Sunday.
MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Australian Open Update: 48-36, + 22.10 Units (162 Units Staked, + 13.64% Yield)
Saturday, 9 July 2016
Wimbledon Tennis Day 14 Picks 2016- Mens Final (July 10th)
Wimbledon Mens Final 2016- Milos Raonic vs Andy Murray
The two favourites to reach the Wimbledon Mens Final were Roger Federer and Andy Murray when the Semi Finals were played on Friday, but Milos Raonic crashed the party to become the youngest Grand Slam Finalist from the mens side of the draw since 2012.
Milos Raonic served very big and looked strong at times, but his win over Roger Federer will be seen as one that the seven time former Champion will regret. There is no doubting that Federer was the superior player through the first four sets, but he somehow blew the fourth set when serving at 40-0 to take that set into a tie-breaker and it was clear that Federer felt that was the match turning moment.
It certainly felt like that as Federer had not faced a break point since the fourth game of the first set and he had created nine break points of his own, albeit only taking the one. Some perhaps felt Federer was saying goodbye to Centre Court for the last time, but his interview after the match suggests this was a tournament in which he has already surpassed expectations.
I just hope Federer hasn't hurt himself with a bad fall in the fifth set and he can get back to full health for the rest of the season. We are not expecting to see Federer back in action until the Canadian Masters later this month and he is looking to represent Switzerland at the Olympic Games, and I just hope there is no negative news out of the fall after earlier having a bit of work done on the knee.
For Milos Raonic it was a big victory, but I am not ready to believe the Canadian is going to be amongst the leading contenders to win Grand Slams in the coming few years just yet. There has been an improvement in his game, but Federer let him off the hook in this Semi Final and I still think his limited return game isn't good enough against the very best players on the Tour on a consistent basis. Even if Raonic was to win on Sunday, I would expect him to be over-rated in coming matches rather than someone who is ready to step up alongside the elite players on the Tour.
In that Final he meets Andy Murray for a repeat of the Queens Final from a few weeks ago. Murray was very strong in his win over Tomas Berdych and he has to know he won't have a better chance of adding to his Grand Slam trophy collection. That can produce nerves, but the good news for Murray is that he has won the title at Wimbledon before while his opponent won't have the vast Grand Slam Final experience that the likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic could fall back upon against Murray.
Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Milos Raonic: Anyone who watched the Queens Final will remember Milos Raonic was a set and a break up against Andy Murray before the latter turned things around. That might give Raonic plenty of belief that he can get the better of Murray on this surface, but I am not so convinced especially if Murray can begin to get a read on where the serve is going as he has in their recent matches.
They also played a memorable five set Semi Final at the Australian Open which Raonic was leading 2-1 before falling away, but there has been a common trend in their recent matches. It was Raonic who had won three of their first five matches, but Murray has won five in a row since the last of those losses in March 2014.
The trend I am talking about isn't the run of losses, but the fact that Murray has found a way to get better results behind his serve in each of those until the Queens Final. In November 2014 Raonic won 33% of points on the Murray serve, but has then won 28%, 25%, 23% and then 26% in the Queens Final.
Murray is one of the players on the ATP Tour that can get plenty of balls back in play even against the biggest servers, and limiting what Raonic is able to do against his own serve should open the door for him in this Final. You have to think Murray will take a little speed off the first serve to make sure he gets plenty of those in play and he will believe he is the better player when the rallies move past four shots, even in the return games.
Pressure can do a funny thing as Murray will have plenty of expectations on his shoulders going into his first Slam Final as the favourite. However I think the way he played in the Semi Final suggests he is comfortable with his position and Murray will believe he will be able to diffuse the Raonic serve. I also don't think Murray will miss the opportunities that Federer created in his Semi Final defeat to Raonic and I believe Murray has the variation and the smarts to force Raonic into making awkward volleys throughout this contest.
I simply don't buy that Raonic can win a Slam with his limited return game and he was barely involved in Federer's service games until the final game of the fourth set and the fifth set. Murray has kept Raonic at arm's length on his service games in recent matches against Raonic and I think he will be too strong for him on the day, forcing a few breaks of serve to make sure he can cover this number.
I am expecting Murray to come through in three or four sets and I will back him to cover this number of games on his way to a second Wimbledon title.
MY PICKS: Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Friday, 3 June 2016
French Open Tennis Day 14 Picks 2016- Women's Final (June 4th)
The Friday Semi Finals are in the books and it was a very good day for the picks in what has been a tough tournament to date.
Now we are left with just two matches in the French Open 2016 as the Women's and Men's Finals have been set and hopefully the tournament will have two that at least end this Grand Slam with some really positive memories.
At the moment the overriding feeling out of the French Open is the stresses the organisers had to go through earlier in the week and the disappointing decisions made for some players who felt they were forced to play in sub-par conditions. There will be a hope that two memorable Finals will at least have this tournament remembered for something a little more positive.
Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 games v Serena Williams: I guess I shouldn't be surprised that Serena Williams is the favourite to win this Grand Slam Final against Garbine Muguruza, but that looks wrong to me. If you have watched any of the last few days at the French Open, you can't have too many doubts that the better tennis is being played by the Spaniard who also has previous having beaten Serena here at Roland Garros to really announce herself on the professional Tour.
There will be nerves, but Muguruza has to look back at the experience of the Wimbledon Final to give her a chance to win this French Open. She might have lost that Grand Slam Final last year, but the experiences should give Muguruza a chance to avenge that defeat to Serena Williams.
I also can't ignore the fact that Serena Williams looks to be carrying some sort of injury which Kiki Bertens may have taken advantage of if she was fully fit in the Semi Final. The injury can't be rested by Serena as she is playing for the third straight day and she can't hope that Muguruza is not healthy as Bertens was on Friday.
The big hitting game of Muguruza can expose some of the movement issues that Williams has been having and this looks a match that is very much on the racquet of the Spaniard. That might be strange to say considering how much power and experience Williams has, but I do think the World Number 1 would have been beaten if she had faced Muguruza in the last two Rounds with the performances she produced.
Maybe Williams can magically come out and be at 100% but even then this would be a tough match for her and I like Muguruza with the games and I expect the Spaniard will win her first Grand Slam title on Saturday.
MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
French Open Update: 27-30, - 10.16 Units (113 Units Staked, - 8.99% Yield)
Now we are left with just two matches in the French Open 2016 as the Women's and Men's Finals have been set and hopefully the tournament will have two that at least end this Grand Slam with some really positive memories.
At the moment the overriding feeling out of the French Open is the stresses the organisers had to go through earlier in the week and the disappointing decisions made for some players who felt they were forced to play in sub-par conditions. There will be a hope that two memorable Finals will at least have this tournament remembered for something a little more positive.
Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 games v Serena Williams: I guess I shouldn't be surprised that Serena Williams is the favourite to win this Grand Slam Final against Garbine Muguruza, but that looks wrong to me. If you have watched any of the last few days at the French Open, you can't have too many doubts that the better tennis is being played by the Spaniard who also has previous having beaten Serena here at Roland Garros to really announce herself on the professional Tour.
There will be nerves, but Muguruza has to look back at the experience of the Wimbledon Final to give her a chance to win this French Open. She might have lost that Grand Slam Final last year, but the experiences should give Muguruza a chance to avenge that defeat to Serena Williams.
I also can't ignore the fact that Serena Williams looks to be carrying some sort of injury which Kiki Bertens may have taken advantage of if she was fully fit in the Semi Final. The injury can't be rested by Serena as she is playing for the third straight day and she can't hope that Muguruza is not healthy as Bertens was on Friday.
The big hitting game of Muguruza can expose some of the movement issues that Williams has been having and this looks a match that is very much on the racquet of the Spaniard. That might be strange to say considering how much power and experience Williams has, but I do think the World Number 1 would have been beaten if she had faced Muguruza in the last two Rounds with the performances she produced.
Maybe Williams can magically come out and be at 100% but even then this would be a tough match for her and I like Muguruza with the games and I expect the Spaniard will win her first Grand Slam title on Saturday.
MY PICKS: Garbine Muguruza + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
French Open Update: 27-30, - 10.16 Units (113 Units Staked, - 8.99% Yield)
Saturday, 6 June 2015
French Open Day 14 Picks 2015- Women's Final: Serena Williams v Lucie Safarova (June 6th)
Both men's Semi Finals hit the heights that we were expecting for them on Friday, but the biggest winner on the day might have been Stan Wawrinka who managed to get past Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in four sets despite a big wobble in the middle of the match.
He isn't just the winner of the day for moving into his second Grand Slam Final, but Stan Wawrinka would have enjoyed seeing Andy Murray somehow dig out the third set against Novak Djokovic and then to see the heavens open meaning the second Semi Final has to be held over until Saturday.
While most neutrals will be looking at the remainder of the Murray-Djokovic match as a potential classic in the making, Wawrinka will be cheering on Murray to push the match into a fifth set and will likely hope it goes as long as possible to strengthen his chances on Sunday.
Forget all this rubbish about wanting to beat players at their very best, Wawrinka would happily face the shell of either Murray/Djokovic in the Final if it means another Grand Slam victory and many others have taken advantage of this in the past.
Most notable was the US Open where the winner of the second men's Semi Final used to have almost nothing left on a regular basis when they persisted with the 'Super Saturday' schedule for television benefits and I don't remember too many looking back at those Slam Champions while looking to put an asterisk by their name.
The Murray-Djokovic match was outrageous at times.
The standard of tennis produced by both players was ridiculously high and it does add to the feeling that these two could be competing for the remaining two Grand Slams to be played this season and potentially much further. I think Novak Djokovic will be kicking himself for not pushing the foot down on the accelerator in the third set when he had chances to break the Andy Murray serve, but you have to also credit Murray for sticking in and finally earning a chance to get into the match with two stunning points at 5-5 in the third set.
Murray had yet to see a break point on the Djokovic serve prior to that, but took his chance and the next thing you knew he was a break up in the fourth set after holding serve from 0-40. Failing to hold onto that break might have been the turning point, but the interruption in play means the match is finely balanced overnight.
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: There are two major questions that need to be answered in the women's Final at Roland Garros on Saturday. The first is how much has Serena Williams been able to recover from the illness that clearly affected her in the first set of her Semi Final win over Timea Bacsinszky?
The second is how well will Lucie Safarova deal with her first Grand Slam Final as a Singles competitor? She played well in her first Grand Slam Semi Final last year at Wimbledon before falling away against Petra Kvitova, but Safarova began nervously in her Semi Final against Ana Ivanovic.
One additional factor that is perhaps being underplayed is that Safarova was involved in the Doubles Semi Final with Bethanie Mattek-Sands on Friday and had to play three tough sets during the heart of the warm weather. Will that cause some fatigue to go with the inevitable nerves or will Safarova be able to keep control of her emotions both physically and mentally?
These are some tough questions to answer and we won't really know how it will pan out until the match begins on Saturday. Serena Williams would be a big favourite in normal circumstances, but the layers are unsure about her fitness and that means she looks an attractive pick in the Final.
I really like Safarova- she seems to be a nice person, but someone who is finally making use of all the weapons she has been afforded. She has served well through the tournament and straight set wins over Maria Sharapova, Garbine Muguruza and Ana Ivanovic is an impressive run of results. Of course Serena Williams is a level above all of those performers when at her best, but that is where the first question brings in the doubts.
Safarova is playing well enough to give Williams a lot of problems regardless of the health of the latter as long as she doesn't let the occasion get to her. I'm not a fan of her being out in the Paris brutal heat for as long as she was in the Doubles Semi Final on Friday and Williams has found a way to break down Safarova with her additional power in past matches.
The way that Williams was serving in her match with Bacsinszky was also inspiring for those who think the American is going to win her 20th Grand Slam title and I do believe the day off might have helped Serena find the strength to win this match.
I can see it being a competitive Final, but I think Williams' power has helped her out of some difficult spots and her experience is tough for Safarova to replicate. While there are factors we can't possibly determine at the moment, I believe Williams might have come through her most difficult moments at Roland Garros and can win her second title in three years here in a tough 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units) To Be Completed 63, 63, 57, 33
French Open Update: 44-33, + 16.44 Units (151 Units Staked, + 10.89% Yield)
He isn't just the winner of the day for moving into his second Grand Slam Final, but Stan Wawrinka would have enjoyed seeing Andy Murray somehow dig out the third set against Novak Djokovic and then to see the heavens open meaning the second Semi Final has to be held over until Saturday.
While most neutrals will be looking at the remainder of the Murray-Djokovic match as a potential classic in the making, Wawrinka will be cheering on Murray to push the match into a fifth set and will likely hope it goes as long as possible to strengthen his chances on Sunday.
Forget all this rubbish about wanting to beat players at their very best, Wawrinka would happily face the shell of either Murray/Djokovic in the Final if it means another Grand Slam victory and many others have taken advantage of this in the past.
Most notable was the US Open where the winner of the second men's Semi Final used to have almost nothing left on a regular basis when they persisted with the 'Super Saturday' schedule for television benefits and I don't remember too many looking back at those Slam Champions while looking to put an asterisk by their name.
The Murray-Djokovic match was outrageous at times.
The standard of tennis produced by both players was ridiculously high and it does add to the feeling that these two could be competing for the remaining two Grand Slams to be played this season and potentially much further. I think Novak Djokovic will be kicking himself for not pushing the foot down on the accelerator in the third set when he had chances to break the Andy Murray serve, but you have to also credit Murray for sticking in and finally earning a chance to get into the match with two stunning points at 5-5 in the third set.
Murray had yet to see a break point on the Djokovic serve prior to that, but took his chance and the next thing you knew he was a break up in the fourth set after holding serve from 0-40. Failing to hold onto that break might have been the turning point, but the interruption in play means the match is finely balanced overnight.
Serena Williams - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: There are two major questions that need to be answered in the women's Final at Roland Garros on Saturday. The first is how much has Serena Williams been able to recover from the illness that clearly affected her in the first set of her Semi Final win over Timea Bacsinszky?
The second is how well will Lucie Safarova deal with her first Grand Slam Final as a Singles competitor? She played well in her first Grand Slam Semi Final last year at Wimbledon before falling away against Petra Kvitova, but Safarova began nervously in her Semi Final against Ana Ivanovic.
One additional factor that is perhaps being underplayed is that Safarova was involved in the Doubles Semi Final with Bethanie Mattek-Sands on Friday and had to play three tough sets during the heart of the warm weather. Will that cause some fatigue to go with the inevitable nerves or will Safarova be able to keep control of her emotions both physically and mentally?
These are some tough questions to answer and we won't really know how it will pan out until the match begins on Saturday. Serena Williams would be a big favourite in normal circumstances, but the layers are unsure about her fitness and that means she looks an attractive pick in the Final.
I really like Safarova- she seems to be a nice person, but someone who is finally making use of all the weapons she has been afforded. She has served well through the tournament and straight set wins over Maria Sharapova, Garbine Muguruza and Ana Ivanovic is an impressive run of results. Of course Serena Williams is a level above all of those performers when at her best, but that is where the first question brings in the doubts.
Safarova is playing well enough to give Williams a lot of problems regardless of the health of the latter as long as she doesn't let the occasion get to her. I'm not a fan of her being out in the Paris brutal heat for as long as she was in the Doubles Semi Final on Friday and Williams has found a way to break down Safarova with her additional power in past matches.
The way that Williams was serving in her match with Bacsinszky was also inspiring for those who think the American is going to win her 20th Grand Slam title and I do believe the day off might have helped Serena find the strength to win this match.
I can see it being a competitive Final, but I think Williams' power has helped her out of some difficult spots and her experience is tough for Safarova to replicate. While there are factors we can't possibly determine at the moment, I believe Williams might have come through her most difficult moments at Roland Garros and can win her second title in three years here in a tough 75, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units) To Be Completed 63, 63, 57, 33
French Open Update: 44-33, + 16.44 Units (151 Units Staked, + 10.89% Yield)
Saturday, 31 January 2015
Australian Open Day 14 Picks 2015- Men's Final Live Blog (February 1st)
So where are all the people that complain about the women being paid the same as the men on the tennis Tour? The Final between Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams was full of world class tennis and while the match was completed in two sets, it was still a fascinating two sets that the fans got to enjoy.
Serena Williams winning the title was less of a surprise considering her dominance of Maria Sharapova in the head to head, but it was close a match as they have had in recent seasons and she has to take the positives from the match. Of course the negative view, which I did have immediately after the match, was that Sharapova had given it her absolute best and still couldn't take a set off of Williams.
Hopefully we will get answers to whether Sharapova is getting closer to finally beating Williams for the first time since the end of the 2004 season over the course of the season. With the way these two played in the Final, whose to argue that we won't see at least one more Grand Slam Final competed by the top two players in the World Rankings.
I will be doing a live blog for the men's Final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray on Sunday morning so hopefully some of you can join me then.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Andy Murray: I remember reading an article last season where Novak Djokovic was essentially implying that him and his team think they have the physical edge over Andy Murray and that is a big reason for his strong winning record against the British Number 1.
However, the big question for me going into the Australian Open Final is what kind of condition does Novak Djokovic feel in at the moment- he admitted there were lapses in the Semi Final win over Stan Wawrinka, although he would have been very pleased to get through the fifth set in timely manner after allowing an early break to get away from him in the fourth set.
Djokovic came into the Grand Slam tournament with doubts about his fitness following an illness and there is a suggestion that he isn't fully recovered. He will also be coming up against Andy Murray who has shown he is close to being back to his best over the last two weeks and looks in great condition.
Murray has been more aggressive in his play and he will have to bring that kind of mentality into this one if he is to win his third Grand Slam title by beating Novak Djokovic. He has done that at the US Open and at Wimbledon, but their most recent Slam encounter came at the US Open last September and was won by Djokovic.
There is no doubt that Murray will believe he is in much better shape than he was in September, and he looks a lot happier on the court than he did at any time during the 2014 season as he recovered from back surgery. He also seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder surrounding the criticism of his appointing Amelie Mauresmo as his Coach, but all of this won't matter if the World Number 1 is on form.
The match is going to be won or lost by Novak Djokovic in my opinion- if he is physically feeling good, I would think he will come through the tough first couple of sets before pulling away from Murray. This has been a feature of their previous matches at Grand Slam level, outside of that Final at Wimbledon, and Djokovic is more than capable of adding yet another Australian Open trophy to his ever-increasing trophy cabinet.
At the US Open last season, the first two sets were split before Djokovic lost just 6 more games in the final two sets. At the Australian Open two years ago, the first two sets were split before Djokovic went on to lose just 7 more games.
The US Open that Murray won against Djokovic saw Murray win the first two sets 76, 75 before winning just 7 games in the next two sets before the Serb was finally exhausted.
That is becoming something of a trend that Djokovic can come through the long tough sets and be in a better place physically and that is my biggest concern about this match. Andy Murray can win it if Djokovic is feeling tired, but I think they split the first two sets before the World Number 1 takes control and comes through in four sets.
The Final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray should be a good one between two players that have known each other a long time and faced off in numerous Grand Slam Finals already. The World Number 1 goes off as the favourite, but there are some question marks about his physical shape ahead of the match which will be answered over the next three hours.
Novak Djokovic 1-0* Andy Murray: A comfortable opening service game for Novak Djokovic with some quality tennis to show he has settled in.
Novak Djokovic *1-1 Andy Murray: Andy Murray's second serve lets him down somewhat and that is going to be a key to this match. It is an attackable shot and Djokovic wins three points against it to get to deuce.
However, a bad call from one of the line judges helps Murray get out of that game.
Djokovic 2-1* Murray: A couple of blistering forehands from Andy Murray help him bring up three break points in a row, the first of the match.
But Novak Djokovic shows why he is the World Number 1 with a couple of top serves before Murray misses his third chance by failing to get a ball back in play.
Twice Djokovic gets up to the net to put away a couple of volleys... He also has a drop shot early in the match which will raise some questions about how he is feeling physically.
Djokovic *3-1 Murray: Novak Djokovic doesn't mind trading from the back of the court in this game and he hits three absolutely brilliant winners to bring up three consecutive break points of his own.
He misses the first when perhaps he shouldn't have, but then Djokovic hits a clean winner off yet another wide serve from Andy Murray to the forehand and moves ahead.
Djokovic 4-1* Murray: Andy Murray wins the first point of the game, but Novak Djokovic has really got the shot down the line working from both the forehand and backhand wins.
No moves forward since the third game, but Djokovic still comfortably comes through to hold.
Djokovic*4-2 Murray: It looks like Novak Djokovic is not going to be shy about coming to the net in this one once he has Andy Murray on the move.
Comfortable enough hold for Murray in the end, but the aggressive tennis definitely being played by Djokovic and his shots down the line are still working off both wings.
Djokovic 4-3* Murray: Andy Murray brings up two break points after Novak Djokovic decides to try serve-volley tactics which results in a pass for the British Number 1.
The first of those is saved with another shot down the line bringing an error from the Murray racquet, but I imagine Murray will be a lot more disappointed with the way he missed the second after a forehand error following a dominant rally.
Not the end of this chances though as another break point is brought up and Murray is perhaps a little fortunate to find a couple of lines before another Djokovic error helps Murray bring this back on serve.
Djokovic *5-3 Murray: Just when it looks like Andy Murray is beginning to win the longer rallies, Novak Djokovic digs deep to pull this game back to 30-30.
The Serb is then the beneficiary of a fortunate net cord which bounces out and produces a break point to take command of the set again.
He can't make it four points in a row though with an absolutely stunning miss on a second serve return, just what you wouldn't expect from the best returner on the ATP Tour.
Another break point is earned from a Murray error and this time Djokovic does get the second serve return into play which is quickly followed by another error from the other side of the net.
Djokovic 5-4* Murray: Some great defensive lobs from Andy Murray, plus some poor smash/volleys from Novak Djokovic help build a 15-30 lead.
A wonderful backhand down the line brings up two break points and there is no doubt that Djokovic has some type of problem with his thumb. A tentative rally is finally ended by an injection of pace from Murray which leads to a forced error and going back on serve.
Djokovic *5-5 Murray: Trainer on to see Novak Djokovic who is also pretty disgusted with some loud noises coming from the crowd midway during the last point.
There seem to be a lot of errors ending points, but the quality of tennis can't be under-stated between these two players.
Andy Murray moves through the game comfortably to level the set.
Djokovic 6-5* Murray: It just feels like Andy Murray is building up some steam in this set now as he wins the first point against serve in the eleventh game of the set.
Some big serving gets Novak Djokovic through the game comfortably from there though.
Djokovic 6-6 Murray: This time it is Andy Murray having a little moan at the umpire during the changeover as he comes out to serve to stay in the set.
A brutal opening rally is followed by three quick points for Murray and yet again these two have to go into a tie break in the first set of a Grand Slam Final.
Djokovic 7-6* Murray: This now means four of their last five Grand Slam matches have needed a tie-break to separate these two in the first set.
Novak Djokovic can't make a much worse start by double faulting away the first point, but he retrieves the mini-break before getting the balls back.
Another error from Djokovic and a heavy backhand down the line from Murray means it is the latter who leads on the turnaround by 4 points to 2.
Ouch- Murray with a terrible double fault to hand back the mini-break advantage and then another long, brutal rally ends with Murray dumping the ball into the net and it is back to 4-4. Loads of tension now and the winner of this set is going to strike a significant blow it feels.
Yet another error from Murray gives Novak Djokovic a 5-4 lead, but the British Number 1 isn't taking a backwards step at the moment. There has been some great tennis in this set despite the obvious tension that both players have played with at times.
Great defence from Djokovic, but a really poor miss from Murray at the net and it is the Number 1 Seed with set point. The errors have been streaming from Murray's racquet in the last moments of this set and another on a second serve return gives Djokovic the set.
Djokovic *7-6, 0-1 Murray: So how much of an impact will that have on Andy Murray? It wasn't just losing the set, but the manner of the way he dropped it and the effort, both physical and mental, that he has already exerted in the match.
Murray has to open the second set serving well and he does that with a hold to 15.
Djokovic 7-6, 0-2* Murray: I am still not convinced that Djokovic is at 100% from a physical standpoint and there have been a couple of 'limps' during his first service game of the set.
Two break points for Andy Murray and Djokovic is gesturing uncomfortably to his box- maybe going to need the trainer for a different body part in a moment as it looks he has done something to his ankle.
Murray only needs the first to move ahead in the second set.
Djokovic *7-6, 1-2 Murray: Better movement from Novak Djokovic during this game considering how he was looking five minutes ago and that has brought up a break point.
Poor game from Murray after he dumps the ball into the middle of the net and hands back the initiative to his opponent.
Djokovic 7-6, 2-2* Murray: Andrew Castle and John Lloyd, essentially glorified Murray cheerleaders, seem to be a little critical of Djokovic's body language, but it isn't like Murray hasn't used those 'tactics' in the past.
Match is so up and down at the moment and it is Murray who builds a 0-30 lead in this one, but he just can't stem the errors coming from his racquet.
Four straight points levels up the set for Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic *7-6, 3-2 Murray: The alarm bells must be going off for Andy Murray as he can't stem the tide of errors coming from his racquet and it brings up three break points for Novak Djokovic.
Just needs one of those points and Djokovic is now up a break after being down 2-0 early in the set.
Djokovic 7-6, 4-2* Murray: Andy Murray can't get any control back in this match and the errors continue to stream off the racquet. Ace for Djokovic wraps up hold to love and consolidates his break.
Djokovic *7-6, 4-3 Murray: Ding, ding, ding... Double fault to open the game puts more pressure on Andy Murray, but he does very well to turn it around and win three straight points before a big serve helps him take the game to 30.
Still in this set, but only just at the moment.
Djokovic 7-6, 4-4* Murray: Bit of extra drama off the court as some sort of protest holds things up at the changeover. Bloody fools.
Momentum was all in the direction of Novak Djokovic prior to that, but I do wonder if that has broken that run.
At 15-30, you can't afford to miss the second serve return, but that is what Murray does which is followed by another loud anguished cry. Definitely been a more aggressive Murray in this game and that brings up a break point.
At times Murray can sometimes take a backwards step in the big moments, but not this time and the aggression brings the set level again.
Djokovic *7-6, 4-5 Murray: You can't say that idiotic protest hasn't worked in favour of Andy Murray who comfortably comes through his service game.
Novak Djokovic serving to stay in the set.
Djokovic 7-6, 5-5* Murray: A big miss from Andy Murray at 15-0 sees the British player scolding himself, and helps Novak Djokovic build a 40-0 lead as he serves to stay in this set.
Lots of quality tennis mixed in with some unforced errors as the tension rises.
Poor volleying from Djokovic means we are back at deuce, and another error gives Murray his first set point.
Murray just gets a little tense again at the big moment and dumps a ball into the net.
Long game this one, but Djokovic takes his third chance to get out of it and the quality of tennis is once again getting up to the level of what we saw in the first set.
Djokovic *7-6, 5-6 Murray: No mention from Cheerleader Lloyd or Cheerleader Castle, but the protest break has really helped Andy Murray get back into this set. However, he missed the big chance to move into a third set and all the pressure is on him to make sure he stays ahead and at least forces a tie-breaker.
The net-cord goes Murray's way in this hugely important eleventh game, but a Djokovic service return winner brings it back to 30 all.
The service hold in the last game has brought Djokovic's best tennis back to the fore and he carries that over to earn a break point.
First one is saved with a decent first serve, but Djokovic hits another winner to bring up a second break point although Murray keeps hanging on by his finger tips.
Great defensive skills from Djokovic lead to yet another break point, but Murray's will is yet to shatter.
Two huge points from Murray to hold on to serve and at least earn a tie-break out of set two.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-6 Murray: You can see why so few people who actually follow tennis through the season can take Andrew Castle seriously- he has concluded these two are the top two players in the world, but it seems to be based on this one tournament, a completely false assertion.
On the court, Novak Djokovic serves to love and it is a second tie-breaker in this Final.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7 Murray: This hasn't been an uncommon occurrence either- two of the last three Grand Slam matches between the pair before today saw the first two sets end in tie-breakers. Absolutely vital for Murray to win this one you'd feel and he quickly moves into a 4-1 lead.
A sense of deja vu with Murray leading 4-2 as the players turn around on the court.
Commanding lead for Murray now as he goes a double mini-break up and now has two serves to win the second set.
Four set points for Murray- two go by, but the third is taken and it's 1-1 in set.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 0-1* Murray: Outside of that Final at Wimbledon in 2013, this match has very strong resemblances to three of their last four Grand Slam matches against one another. The first two sets on each of those occasions has lasted 25, 26 and 26 games, but it is Novak Djokovic who has then taken control of the next two sets on each of those occasions by winning sets 62, 64, 62, 63, 62, 63.
Djokovic has noted he feels he can physically out-last Murray if he is in this position so now he has the time to prove it.
It isn't going to plan right now though with Andy Murray bringing up two break points immediately- he takes the first of those and moves ahead in this Final for the first time.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 0-2 Murray: The physical strength is on the side of Andy Murray early in this third set and Novak Djokovic barely made an effort in that game.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 1-2* Murray: Easy game for Novak Djokovic, which is exactly what the doctor would have ordered.
Needs to find some inspiration from somewhere though to get back into this set.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 2-2 Murray: Maybe that return of serve winner will be the inspiration I was talking about! Net cord also doesn't go Andy Murray's way and Novak Djokovic has a slight opening at 0-30.
Well, well, well, it's more than an opening as two break points are brought up by Djokovic- Murray complains about Djokovic perhaps 'faking' which is ironic, and Novak takes a second break point to get back on serve.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 3-2* Murray: Andy Murray is furious at the end of that game as Novak Djokovic battles through to take the lead in this set. Out of the two, Djokovic is showing more signs of tiredness so I am wondering if his Semi Final being played a day later is having an impact.
Momentum back on the Serbian's side though.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 3-3 Murray: Easy hold for Andy Murray, but I think that is also down to the fact that Novak Djokovic is perhaps conserving some energy.
Not the time to be running around, defending, while the score is 40-0.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 4-3* Murray: There just seems to be a little more coming from Andy Murray's side of the court, especially once the rallies move beyond the four/five shots.
Break point but a huge play from Novak Djokovic to hold on with a drop volley that Andy Murray barely missed getting to. Big serving sees the Serb hold serve.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 5-3 Murray:The commentary provided by Andrew Castle is easily the worst aspect of this Final so far as he 'doesn't like' Novak Djokovic celebrating saving the break point with his box... Without swearing.
Unlike Kim Sears abusing Tomas Berdych of course, which was hilarious(!)
Huge start to this game for Novak Djokovic who moves into a 0-30 lead and has Andy Murray complaining to his box about something or other.
Three break points and Andy Murray is absolutely fuming.
Saved the first with a big serve, but pressure gets to Murray and he double faults the game away which means Novak Djokovic serves for the set.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3* Murray: Andy Murray is furious, but his attempted racquet 'smash' is appalling!
Positive sounds from Murray after he takes the first point of this game, but he doesn't build on it as he produces three errors in a row to give Novak Djokovic two set points.
Djokovic takes the third set with a big serve.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 1-0 Murray: I did mention the strength of Novak Djokovic over Andy Murray in their three previous Grand Slam matches that have seen at least 25 games played in the first two sets. It was another 6-3 set for Djokovic and this is the time for Murray to show if he has really improved as a player from a physical standpoint.
He was beginning to show outward signs of tiredness at the end of the third set so opening game of fourth is critical for him to get his nose in front.
Pressure already on Murray as he serves at 30 all and Djokovic pummels a second serve onto the baseline to bring up break point.
Another error from the Murray racquet and it is Djokovic who takes it and moves into a commanding position in the match.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 2-0* Murray: It was 0-15, but Novak Djokovic produces a brilliant pass and then follows it with two big serves.
Great exchange at the net which Murray comes out on top, but those are getting less frequent and Djokovic consolidates the break.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 3-0 Murray: This could be the moment that this Final gets beyond Andy Murray as a couple of tired shots opens the door for Novak Djokovic at 15-30.
Big serve from Murray is returned to the middle of the court, but he inexplicably misses and it is two more break points for Djokovic to take a double break into the changeover.
Second serve is returned for a winner and Novak Djokovic is three games from the title with a double break.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 4-0* Murray: The mishits are more frequent, and the physical strength is definitely on Novak Djokovic's side of the court.
There will be no giving up by Andy Murray as Novak Djokovic makes a couple of really poor decisions to fall back to deuce, but solid serving and dictating the points helps the World Number 1 consolidate the double break.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 5-0 Murray: No one wants to see someone suffer a bagel in a Final, but Andy Murray is going to have to put a lot of effort into this game to prevent that happening.
Any energy levels left for a comeback will have to be used now as Murray goes 0-30 behind and now he has to save two break points.
A huge return from Djokovic lands way in and Murray effectively gives it up by opting to challenge and that looks like game, set and Championship for Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-0: So Novak Djokovic has won 11 of the last 12 games with his physical strength overmatching Andy Murray again.
Djokovic openly said this after their US Open Quarter Final- as long as Murray doesn't get too big a lead, Djokovic feels he can physically out-last him on a tennis court.
Happened in two of the last three Grand Slam matches they have played, and definitely happened again today.
Novak Djokovic takes the second match point and is the Australian Open Champion for the fifth time in a row.
Novak Djokovic Wins the Australian Open Men's Title: It looked a little iffy for Novak Djokovic at the beginning of the third set, but I think it is a really big worry in the manner that Andy Murray fell apart.
Physically he is unable to stay with someone like Djokovic and that is tough for a player that doesn't always want to take the aggressive approach to matches and settles into these long rallies that is draining him more than the World Number 1.
I don't buy that the negativity cost Andy Murray in that match like John Lloyd was suggesting and I don't blame the fact that he has Amelie Mauresmo in his corner- this isn't about a lack of talent, this is about someone who just doesn't have that extra physicality on the court that Novak Djokovic can bring.
At the very top of sport, these 'minor' differences are the ones that create 'greatness' compared with someone who is 'very good'.
And those gaps are very tough to bridge- the only way for Murray to do that is to shorten points, don't get drawn into the long rallies and try and conserve energy for the latter stages of these matches against the very best players.
It's a good start to the 2015 season for Murray, but he might have to go back to the tactics board when he does run into Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal later in the season.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 4.20 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 35-23, + 26.15 Units (110 Units Staked, + 23.77% Yield)
Serena Williams winning the title was less of a surprise considering her dominance of Maria Sharapova in the head to head, but it was close a match as they have had in recent seasons and she has to take the positives from the match. Of course the negative view, which I did have immediately after the match, was that Sharapova had given it her absolute best and still couldn't take a set off of Williams.
Hopefully we will get answers to whether Sharapova is getting closer to finally beating Williams for the first time since the end of the 2004 season over the course of the season. With the way these two played in the Final, whose to argue that we won't see at least one more Grand Slam Final competed by the top two players in the World Rankings.
I will be doing a live blog for the men's Final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray on Sunday morning so hopefully some of you can join me then.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Andy Murray: I remember reading an article last season where Novak Djokovic was essentially implying that him and his team think they have the physical edge over Andy Murray and that is a big reason for his strong winning record against the British Number 1.
However, the big question for me going into the Australian Open Final is what kind of condition does Novak Djokovic feel in at the moment- he admitted there were lapses in the Semi Final win over Stan Wawrinka, although he would have been very pleased to get through the fifth set in timely manner after allowing an early break to get away from him in the fourth set.
Djokovic came into the Grand Slam tournament with doubts about his fitness following an illness and there is a suggestion that he isn't fully recovered. He will also be coming up against Andy Murray who has shown he is close to being back to his best over the last two weeks and looks in great condition.
Murray has been more aggressive in his play and he will have to bring that kind of mentality into this one if he is to win his third Grand Slam title by beating Novak Djokovic. He has done that at the US Open and at Wimbledon, but their most recent Slam encounter came at the US Open last September and was won by Djokovic.
There is no doubt that Murray will believe he is in much better shape than he was in September, and he looks a lot happier on the court than he did at any time during the 2014 season as he recovered from back surgery. He also seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder surrounding the criticism of his appointing Amelie Mauresmo as his Coach, but all of this won't matter if the World Number 1 is on form.
The match is going to be won or lost by Novak Djokovic in my opinion- if he is physically feeling good, I would think he will come through the tough first couple of sets before pulling away from Murray. This has been a feature of their previous matches at Grand Slam level, outside of that Final at Wimbledon, and Djokovic is more than capable of adding yet another Australian Open trophy to his ever-increasing trophy cabinet.
At the US Open last season, the first two sets were split before Djokovic lost just 6 more games in the final two sets. At the Australian Open two years ago, the first two sets were split before Djokovic went on to lose just 7 more games.
The US Open that Murray won against Djokovic saw Murray win the first two sets 76, 75 before winning just 7 games in the next two sets before the Serb was finally exhausted.
That is becoming something of a trend that Djokovic can come through the long tough sets and be in a better place physically and that is my biggest concern about this match. Andy Murray can win it if Djokovic is feeling tired, but I think they split the first two sets before the World Number 1 takes control and comes through in four sets.
The Final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray should be a good one between two players that have known each other a long time and faced off in numerous Grand Slam Finals already. The World Number 1 goes off as the favourite, but there are some question marks about his physical shape ahead of the match which will be answered over the next three hours.
Novak Djokovic 1-0* Andy Murray: A comfortable opening service game for Novak Djokovic with some quality tennis to show he has settled in.
Novak Djokovic *1-1 Andy Murray: Andy Murray's second serve lets him down somewhat and that is going to be a key to this match. It is an attackable shot and Djokovic wins three points against it to get to deuce.
However, a bad call from one of the line judges helps Murray get out of that game.
Djokovic 2-1* Murray: A couple of blistering forehands from Andy Murray help him bring up three break points in a row, the first of the match.
But Novak Djokovic shows why he is the World Number 1 with a couple of top serves before Murray misses his third chance by failing to get a ball back in play.
Twice Djokovic gets up to the net to put away a couple of volleys... He also has a drop shot early in the match which will raise some questions about how he is feeling physically.
Djokovic *3-1 Murray: Novak Djokovic doesn't mind trading from the back of the court in this game and he hits three absolutely brilliant winners to bring up three consecutive break points of his own.
He misses the first when perhaps he shouldn't have, but then Djokovic hits a clean winner off yet another wide serve from Andy Murray to the forehand and moves ahead.
Djokovic 4-1* Murray: Andy Murray wins the first point of the game, but Novak Djokovic has really got the shot down the line working from both the forehand and backhand wins.
No moves forward since the third game, but Djokovic still comfortably comes through to hold.
Djokovic*4-2 Murray: It looks like Novak Djokovic is not going to be shy about coming to the net in this one once he has Andy Murray on the move.
Comfortable enough hold for Murray in the end, but the aggressive tennis definitely being played by Djokovic and his shots down the line are still working off both wings.
Djokovic 4-3* Murray: Andy Murray brings up two break points after Novak Djokovic decides to try serve-volley tactics which results in a pass for the British Number 1.
The first of those is saved with another shot down the line bringing an error from the Murray racquet, but I imagine Murray will be a lot more disappointed with the way he missed the second after a forehand error following a dominant rally.
Not the end of this chances though as another break point is brought up and Murray is perhaps a little fortunate to find a couple of lines before another Djokovic error helps Murray bring this back on serve.
Djokovic *5-3 Murray: Just when it looks like Andy Murray is beginning to win the longer rallies, Novak Djokovic digs deep to pull this game back to 30-30.
The Serb is then the beneficiary of a fortunate net cord which bounces out and produces a break point to take command of the set again.
He can't make it four points in a row though with an absolutely stunning miss on a second serve return, just what you wouldn't expect from the best returner on the ATP Tour.
Another break point is earned from a Murray error and this time Djokovic does get the second serve return into play which is quickly followed by another error from the other side of the net.
Djokovic 5-4* Murray: Some great defensive lobs from Andy Murray, plus some poor smash/volleys from Novak Djokovic help build a 15-30 lead.
A wonderful backhand down the line brings up two break points and there is no doubt that Djokovic has some type of problem with his thumb. A tentative rally is finally ended by an injection of pace from Murray which leads to a forced error and going back on serve.
Djokovic *5-5 Murray: Trainer on to see Novak Djokovic who is also pretty disgusted with some loud noises coming from the crowd midway during the last point.
There seem to be a lot of errors ending points, but the quality of tennis can't be under-stated between these two players.
Andy Murray moves through the game comfortably to level the set.
Djokovic 6-5* Murray: It just feels like Andy Murray is building up some steam in this set now as he wins the first point against serve in the eleventh game of the set.
Some big serving gets Novak Djokovic through the game comfortably from there though.
Djokovic 6-6 Murray: This time it is Andy Murray having a little moan at the umpire during the changeover as he comes out to serve to stay in the set.
A brutal opening rally is followed by three quick points for Murray and yet again these two have to go into a tie break in the first set of a Grand Slam Final.
Djokovic 7-6* Murray: This now means four of their last five Grand Slam matches have needed a tie-break to separate these two in the first set.
Novak Djokovic can't make a much worse start by double faulting away the first point, but he retrieves the mini-break before getting the balls back.
Another error from Djokovic and a heavy backhand down the line from Murray means it is the latter who leads on the turnaround by 4 points to 2.
Ouch- Murray with a terrible double fault to hand back the mini-break advantage and then another long, brutal rally ends with Murray dumping the ball into the net and it is back to 4-4. Loads of tension now and the winner of this set is going to strike a significant blow it feels.
Yet another error from Murray gives Novak Djokovic a 5-4 lead, but the British Number 1 isn't taking a backwards step at the moment. There has been some great tennis in this set despite the obvious tension that both players have played with at times.
Great defence from Djokovic, but a really poor miss from Murray at the net and it is the Number 1 Seed with set point. The errors have been streaming from Murray's racquet in the last moments of this set and another on a second serve return gives Djokovic the set.
Djokovic *7-6, 0-1 Murray: So how much of an impact will that have on Andy Murray? It wasn't just losing the set, but the manner of the way he dropped it and the effort, both physical and mental, that he has already exerted in the match.
Murray has to open the second set serving well and he does that with a hold to 15.
Djokovic 7-6, 0-2* Murray: I am still not convinced that Djokovic is at 100% from a physical standpoint and there have been a couple of 'limps' during his first service game of the set.
Two break points for Andy Murray and Djokovic is gesturing uncomfortably to his box- maybe going to need the trainer for a different body part in a moment as it looks he has done something to his ankle.
Murray only needs the first to move ahead in the second set.
Djokovic *7-6, 1-2 Murray: Better movement from Novak Djokovic during this game considering how he was looking five minutes ago and that has brought up a break point.
Poor game from Murray after he dumps the ball into the middle of the net and hands back the initiative to his opponent.
Djokovic 7-6, 2-2* Murray: Andrew Castle and John Lloyd, essentially glorified Murray cheerleaders, seem to be a little critical of Djokovic's body language, but it isn't like Murray hasn't used those 'tactics' in the past.
Match is so up and down at the moment and it is Murray who builds a 0-30 lead in this one, but he just can't stem the errors coming from his racquet.
Four straight points levels up the set for Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic *7-6, 3-2 Murray: The alarm bells must be going off for Andy Murray as he can't stem the tide of errors coming from his racquet and it brings up three break points for Novak Djokovic.
Just needs one of those points and Djokovic is now up a break after being down 2-0 early in the set.
Djokovic 7-6, 4-2* Murray: Andy Murray can't get any control back in this match and the errors continue to stream off the racquet. Ace for Djokovic wraps up hold to love and consolidates his break.
Djokovic *7-6, 4-3 Murray: Ding, ding, ding... Double fault to open the game puts more pressure on Andy Murray, but he does very well to turn it around and win three straight points before a big serve helps him take the game to 30.
Still in this set, but only just at the moment.
Djokovic 7-6, 4-4* Murray: Bit of extra drama off the court as some sort of protest holds things up at the changeover. Bloody fools.
Momentum was all in the direction of Novak Djokovic prior to that, but I do wonder if that has broken that run.
At 15-30, you can't afford to miss the second serve return, but that is what Murray does which is followed by another loud anguished cry. Definitely been a more aggressive Murray in this game and that brings up a break point.
At times Murray can sometimes take a backwards step in the big moments, but not this time and the aggression brings the set level again.
Djokovic *7-6, 4-5 Murray: You can't say that idiotic protest hasn't worked in favour of Andy Murray who comfortably comes through his service game.
Novak Djokovic serving to stay in the set.
Djokovic 7-6, 5-5* Murray: A big miss from Andy Murray at 15-0 sees the British player scolding himself, and helps Novak Djokovic build a 40-0 lead as he serves to stay in this set.
Lots of quality tennis mixed in with some unforced errors as the tension rises.
Poor volleying from Djokovic means we are back at deuce, and another error gives Murray his first set point.
Murray just gets a little tense again at the big moment and dumps a ball into the net.
Long game this one, but Djokovic takes his third chance to get out of it and the quality of tennis is once again getting up to the level of what we saw in the first set.
Djokovic *7-6, 5-6 Murray: No mention from Cheerleader Lloyd or Cheerleader Castle, but the protest break has really helped Andy Murray get back into this set. However, he missed the big chance to move into a third set and all the pressure is on him to make sure he stays ahead and at least forces a tie-breaker.
The net-cord goes Murray's way in this hugely important eleventh game, but a Djokovic service return winner brings it back to 30 all.
The service hold in the last game has brought Djokovic's best tennis back to the fore and he carries that over to earn a break point.
First one is saved with a decent first serve, but Djokovic hits another winner to bring up a second break point although Murray keeps hanging on by his finger tips.
Great defensive skills from Djokovic lead to yet another break point, but Murray's will is yet to shatter.
Two huge points from Murray to hold on to serve and at least earn a tie-break out of set two.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-6 Murray: You can see why so few people who actually follow tennis through the season can take Andrew Castle seriously- he has concluded these two are the top two players in the world, but it seems to be based on this one tournament, a completely false assertion.
On the court, Novak Djokovic serves to love and it is a second tie-breaker in this Final.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7 Murray: This hasn't been an uncommon occurrence either- two of the last three Grand Slam matches between the pair before today saw the first two sets end in tie-breakers. Absolutely vital for Murray to win this one you'd feel and he quickly moves into a 4-1 lead.
A sense of deja vu with Murray leading 4-2 as the players turn around on the court.
Commanding lead for Murray now as he goes a double mini-break up and now has two serves to win the second set.
Four set points for Murray- two go by, but the third is taken and it's 1-1 in set.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 0-1* Murray: Outside of that Final at Wimbledon in 2013, this match has very strong resemblances to three of their last four Grand Slam matches against one another. The first two sets on each of those occasions has lasted 25, 26 and 26 games, but it is Novak Djokovic who has then taken control of the next two sets on each of those occasions by winning sets 62, 64, 62, 63, 62, 63.
Djokovic has noted he feels he can physically out-last Murray if he is in this position so now he has the time to prove it.
It isn't going to plan right now though with Andy Murray bringing up two break points immediately- he takes the first of those and moves ahead in this Final for the first time.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 0-2 Murray: The physical strength is on the side of Andy Murray early in this third set and Novak Djokovic barely made an effort in that game.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 1-2* Murray: Easy game for Novak Djokovic, which is exactly what the doctor would have ordered.
Needs to find some inspiration from somewhere though to get back into this set.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 2-2 Murray: Maybe that return of serve winner will be the inspiration I was talking about! Net cord also doesn't go Andy Murray's way and Novak Djokovic has a slight opening at 0-30.
Well, well, well, it's more than an opening as two break points are brought up by Djokovic- Murray complains about Djokovic perhaps 'faking' which is ironic, and Novak takes a second break point to get back on serve.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 3-2* Murray: Andy Murray is furious at the end of that game as Novak Djokovic battles through to take the lead in this set. Out of the two, Djokovic is showing more signs of tiredness so I am wondering if his Semi Final being played a day later is having an impact.
Momentum back on the Serbian's side though.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 3-3 Murray: Easy hold for Andy Murray, but I think that is also down to the fact that Novak Djokovic is perhaps conserving some energy.
Not the time to be running around, defending, while the score is 40-0.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 4-3* Murray: There just seems to be a little more coming from Andy Murray's side of the court, especially once the rallies move beyond the four/five shots.
Break point but a huge play from Novak Djokovic to hold on with a drop volley that Andy Murray barely missed getting to. Big serving sees the Serb hold serve.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 5-3 Murray:The commentary provided by Andrew Castle is easily the worst aspect of this Final so far as he 'doesn't like' Novak Djokovic celebrating saving the break point with his box... Without swearing.
Unlike Kim Sears abusing Tomas Berdych of course, which was hilarious(!)
Huge start to this game for Novak Djokovic who moves into a 0-30 lead and has Andy Murray complaining to his box about something or other.
Three break points and Andy Murray is absolutely fuming.
Saved the first with a big serve, but pressure gets to Murray and he double faults the game away which means Novak Djokovic serves for the set.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3* Murray: Andy Murray is furious, but his attempted racquet 'smash' is appalling!
Positive sounds from Murray after he takes the first point of this game, but he doesn't build on it as he produces three errors in a row to give Novak Djokovic two set points.
Djokovic takes the third set with a big serve.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 1-0 Murray: I did mention the strength of Novak Djokovic over Andy Murray in their three previous Grand Slam matches that have seen at least 25 games played in the first two sets. It was another 6-3 set for Djokovic and this is the time for Murray to show if he has really improved as a player from a physical standpoint.
He was beginning to show outward signs of tiredness at the end of the third set so opening game of fourth is critical for him to get his nose in front.
Pressure already on Murray as he serves at 30 all and Djokovic pummels a second serve onto the baseline to bring up break point.
Another error from the Murray racquet and it is Djokovic who takes it and moves into a commanding position in the match.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 2-0* Murray: It was 0-15, but Novak Djokovic produces a brilliant pass and then follows it with two big serves.
Great exchange at the net which Murray comes out on top, but those are getting less frequent and Djokovic consolidates the break.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 3-0 Murray: This could be the moment that this Final gets beyond Andy Murray as a couple of tired shots opens the door for Novak Djokovic at 15-30.
Big serve from Murray is returned to the middle of the court, but he inexplicably misses and it is two more break points for Djokovic to take a double break into the changeover.
Second serve is returned for a winner and Novak Djokovic is three games from the title with a double break.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 4-0* Murray: The mishits are more frequent, and the physical strength is definitely on Novak Djokovic's side of the court.
There will be no giving up by Andy Murray as Novak Djokovic makes a couple of really poor decisions to fall back to deuce, but solid serving and dictating the points helps the World Number 1 consolidate the double break.
Djokovic *7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 5-0 Murray: No one wants to see someone suffer a bagel in a Final, but Andy Murray is going to have to put a lot of effort into this game to prevent that happening.
Any energy levels left for a comeback will have to be used now as Murray goes 0-30 behind and now he has to save two break points.
A huge return from Djokovic lands way in and Murray effectively gives it up by opting to challenge and that looks like game, set and Championship for Novak Djokovic.
Djokovic 7-6, 6-7, 6-3, 6-0: So Novak Djokovic has won 11 of the last 12 games with his physical strength overmatching Andy Murray again.
Djokovic openly said this after their US Open Quarter Final- as long as Murray doesn't get too big a lead, Djokovic feels he can physically out-last him on a tennis court.
Happened in two of the last three Grand Slam matches they have played, and definitely happened again today.
Novak Djokovic takes the second match point and is the Australian Open Champion for the fifth time in a row.
Novak Djokovic Wins the Australian Open Men's Title: It looked a little iffy for Novak Djokovic at the beginning of the third set, but I think it is a really big worry in the manner that Andy Murray fell apart.
Physically he is unable to stay with someone like Djokovic and that is tough for a player that doesn't always want to take the aggressive approach to matches and settles into these long rallies that is draining him more than the World Number 1.
I don't buy that the negativity cost Andy Murray in that match like John Lloyd was suggesting and I don't blame the fact that he has Amelie Mauresmo in his corner- this isn't about a lack of talent, this is about someone who just doesn't have that extra physicality on the court that Novak Djokovic can bring.
At the very top of sport, these 'minor' differences are the ones that create 'greatness' compared with someone who is 'very good'.
And those gaps are very tough to bridge- the only way for Murray to do that is to shorten points, don't get drawn into the long rallies and try and conserve energy for the latter stages of these matches against the very best players.
It's a good start to the 2015 season for Murray, but he might have to go back to the tactics board when he does run into Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal later in the season.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic Win 3-1 @ 4.20 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 35-23, + 26.15 Units (110 Units Staked, + 23.77% Yield)
Sunday, 7 September 2014
US Open Women's Final 2014- Serena Williams v Caroline Wozniacki (September 7th)
I wish I had listened to my gut yesterday that told me both Kei Nishikori and Marin Cilic would make it incredibly tough for Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer respectively, but I never thought both men would win those matches.
In fact, after breaking down the matches, I actually believed the top two seeds would prove too good- Kei Nishikori definitely wobbled at the beginning of the third set but managed to hold onto serve in a lengthy game which seemed to give him the belief to kick on; on the other hand, Marin Cilic dominated Roger Federer from start to finish and has now set up the first men's Grand Slam Final not involving Djokovic, Federer, Rafael Nadal or Andy Murray since the Australian Open 2005.
That Final will be played on Monday afternoon, but first we come to the women's Final being competed by two very good friends in Serena Williams and Caroline Wozniacki. Both have spent a lot of time together off the court, but Serena has made a point of mentioning that it won't affect her because if she 'can play Venus, (she) can play anybody'.
The key to the match could be which of the two players hold their nerve the best with big goals being reached by the winner, and their two matches this summer have been incredibly close.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: In the two matches this summer, Serena Williams didn't serve as effectively as she can and that could be all that makes the difference in this match.
If Serena serves as well as she has in the latter part of her match with Flavia Pennetta and as well as she did in the Semi Final win over Ekaterina Makarova, Williams should be able to dictate the points more effectively than Wozniacki.
She will have to do that because the Dane has been playing more aggressively than I have seen for some time, although she was a little fortunate to have been ahead in her Semi Final win over Shuai Peng. However, Wozniacki broke an opponent who had won 40 straight service games for fun in that match and I do think she will be able to get into the Williams service games.
On the other hand, it would be a big surprise if Williams is not able to hurt the Wozniacki serve, particularly the second serve, if she brings in the form that kept Pennetta and Makarova on the back foot immediately following serves.
Wozniacki can frustrate with her defensive skills and many of the matches between these players have been very close (3 of last 5 have gone the distance), although Serena does seem to knuckle down just enough to come through.
Handling the nerves hasn't always been something that Serena Williams has done well, despite the 17 Grand Slam titles she has won, but I think there will be plenty on the other side of the net too and I like Williams to win this one 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 20-17, + 10.86 Units (67 Units Staked, + 16.21% Yield)
In fact, after breaking down the matches, I actually believed the top two seeds would prove too good- Kei Nishikori definitely wobbled at the beginning of the third set but managed to hold onto serve in a lengthy game which seemed to give him the belief to kick on; on the other hand, Marin Cilic dominated Roger Federer from start to finish and has now set up the first men's Grand Slam Final not involving Djokovic, Federer, Rafael Nadal or Andy Murray since the Australian Open 2005.
That Final will be played on Monday afternoon, but first we come to the women's Final being competed by two very good friends in Serena Williams and Caroline Wozniacki. Both have spent a lot of time together off the court, but Serena has made a point of mentioning that it won't affect her because if she 'can play Venus, (she) can play anybody'.
The key to the match could be which of the two players hold their nerve the best with big goals being reached by the winner, and their two matches this summer have been incredibly close.
Serena Williams - 4.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: In the two matches this summer, Serena Williams didn't serve as effectively as she can and that could be all that makes the difference in this match.
If Serena serves as well as she has in the latter part of her match with Flavia Pennetta and as well as she did in the Semi Final win over Ekaterina Makarova, Williams should be able to dictate the points more effectively than Wozniacki.
She will have to do that because the Dane has been playing more aggressively than I have seen for some time, although she was a little fortunate to have been ahead in her Semi Final win over Shuai Peng. However, Wozniacki broke an opponent who had won 40 straight service games for fun in that match and I do think she will be able to get into the Williams service games.
On the other hand, it would be a big surprise if Williams is not able to hurt the Wozniacki serve, particularly the second serve, if she brings in the form that kept Pennetta and Makarova on the back foot immediately following serves.
Wozniacki can frustrate with her defensive skills and many of the matches between these players have been very close (3 of last 5 have gone the distance), although Serena does seem to knuckle down just enough to come through.
Handling the nerves hasn't always been something that Serena Williams has done well, despite the 17 Grand Slam titles she has won, but I think there will be plenty on the other side of the net too and I like Williams to win this one 64, 63.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
US Open Update: 20-17, + 10.86 Units (67 Units Staked, + 16.21% Yield)
Saturday, 7 June 2014
French Open Day 14 Picks 2014- Women's Final: Maria Sharapova v Simona Halep (June 7th)
Maria Sharapova win 2-1 v Simona Halep: The women's Final at the French Open will be contested by Maria Sharapova and Simona Halep and it will be interesting to see whether the latter can hold her nerves to win her maiden Grand Slam. That is in stark contrast to Maria Sharapova who has won four Grand Slam titles, but is yet to win two anywhere, and is playing in her third straight Final at Roland Garros.
It would be a huge surprise to see Sharapova's personal record show that she has won more French Open titles compared with any other Major considering her game and movement always seemed better suited to the faster surfaces. Once describing herself as a 'cow on ice' when it came to the clay courts, Sharapova has certainly found a love affair with the surface over the last three years.
That experience could prove to be vital against Simona Halep who has had a wonderful tournament and held her nerves together in the Semi Final. However, that came against Andrea Petkovic who also was competing in her first Grand Slam Semi Final and the nerves are only going to be even more frayed by the time this match gets underway for the Romanian.
The last twelve months have shown the vast improvement in Halep's game, but confidence has also been a real factor as the momentum has built in that time and she has exceeded her previous best Grand Slam result from the Australian Open back in January.
Halep has strong groundstrokes, but her serve can be a little vulnerable, and she is going to have to use her extra speed to try and make sure Sharapova feels the court is smaller than usual. She also has to dictate the play and keep Sharapova on the move to prevent the Russian from taking control and using her heavy groundstrokes to keep Halep on the run, especially as Sharapova has the consistency to eventually win those points.
The serve can be a little erratic at times and that is why I believe we will see a competitive Final and are unlikely to have a winner without a deciding set to be played. As we saw when the players met in Madrid, Halep can certainly break the Sharapova serve, but her own is very vulnerable and the latter is one of the best fighters on the Tour and will never give up as she has shown in the last three Rounds.
All of those matches have seen Sharapova come from a set down to win the match and there is every chance that Halep is going to have enough adrenaline to come out and take the first set as she did against Sharapova in Madrid. While you can never guess how a player will respond to their first Final, Halep has been in control of her emotions through the entire tournament and she has enough from the ground to take a set off of Sharapova.
Then again, Sharapova will have to deal with own nerves to get back into this match as she will have the chance to win her second title at the same Grand Slam for the first time- she has shown an ability to make the adjustments needed within a match to turn things around and I think the added experience of winning big titles would see her through in the final set decider if the match gets to that stage.
Some might be keen to get on Sharapova to win the match after losing the first set which looks a big price, but I am simply looking for the four time Slam winner to win a match that goes the distance.
MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova win 2-1 @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
French Open Update: 28-26, + 4.38 Units (105 Units Staked, + 4.17% Yield)
It would be a huge surprise to see Sharapova's personal record show that she has won more French Open titles compared with any other Major considering her game and movement always seemed better suited to the faster surfaces. Once describing herself as a 'cow on ice' when it came to the clay courts, Sharapova has certainly found a love affair with the surface over the last three years.
That experience could prove to be vital against Simona Halep who has had a wonderful tournament and held her nerves together in the Semi Final. However, that came against Andrea Petkovic who also was competing in her first Grand Slam Semi Final and the nerves are only going to be even more frayed by the time this match gets underway for the Romanian.
The last twelve months have shown the vast improvement in Halep's game, but confidence has also been a real factor as the momentum has built in that time and she has exceeded her previous best Grand Slam result from the Australian Open back in January.
Halep has strong groundstrokes, but her serve can be a little vulnerable, and she is going to have to use her extra speed to try and make sure Sharapova feels the court is smaller than usual. She also has to dictate the play and keep Sharapova on the move to prevent the Russian from taking control and using her heavy groundstrokes to keep Halep on the run, especially as Sharapova has the consistency to eventually win those points.
The serve can be a little erratic at times and that is why I believe we will see a competitive Final and are unlikely to have a winner without a deciding set to be played. As we saw when the players met in Madrid, Halep can certainly break the Sharapova serve, but her own is very vulnerable and the latter is one of the best fighters on the Tour and will never give up as she has shown in the last three Rounds.
All of those matches have seen Sharapova come from a set down to win the match and there is every chance that Halep is going to have enough adrenaline to come out and take the first set as she did against Sharapova in Madrid. While you can never guess how a player will respond to their first Final, Halep has been in control of her emotions through the entire tournament and she has enough from the ground to take a set off of Sharapova.
Then again, Sharapova will have to deal with own nerves to get back into this match as she will have the chance to win her second title at the same Grand Slam for the first time- she has shown an ability to make the adjustments needed within a match to turn things around and I think the added experience of winning big titles would see her through in the final set decider if the match gets to that stage.
Some might be keen to get on Sharapova to win the match after losing the first set which looks a big price, but I am simply looking for the four time Slam winner to win a match that goes the distance.
MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova win 2-1 @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
French Open Update: 28-26, + 4.38 Units (105 Units Staked, + 4.17% Yield)
Saturday, 8 June 2013
French Open Women's Final 2013- Serena Williams v Maria Sharapova (June 8th)
The second Saturday of the French Open is the day reserved for the Women's Final and I do wonder if the fans will have been able to recover from the emotional rollercoaster they were taken on during the Men's Semi Finals on Friday night.
The first of those Semi Finals was between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal- it wasn't the best Semi Final for the first three sets, with Djokovic's form particularly fluctuating too much to make it a real contest and an early break for Nadal in the fourth looked to have ended the match.
However, from that moment on, the match took a number of turns as momentum shifted both ways and it was a couple of moments that eventually cost Djokovic the match. The first was his constant frustration with the dried out court not being watered and the second was the moment he ran into the net when the point was almost certainly won at 4-3, 40-40 in the final set... The World Number 1 himself admitted that the match was decided at that moment and I would go a step further and say it was that moment that prevented him holding serve and putting himself just a game away from winning the match, something which I believe he would have done.
One question Djokovic has to have is what happened to him in set three- he almost broke Nadal in the first game, but then proceeded to lose the set 6-1 as he struggled with his form and it did seem that Djokovic had some sort of physical problem. While he hasn't discussed that moment yet, it is something to keep in mind with the third Grand Slam of the year just three weeks away.
The crowd were a little flat for the second Semi Final on Friday, even with home hope Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in action and that did lead to a limp performance from the charismatic Frenchman. Playing David Ferrer was always going to be a much bigger challenge than most in the media made out, especially as Ferrer is very comfortable on the clay courts and Tsonga is certainly better on other surfaces.
Ferrer dominated the match for the most part and didn't make the errors that Roger Federer made in the Quarter Final against Tsonga and it was a very straightforward straight sets win.
Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Maria Sharapova: If you listened to some of the commentary during the last couple of weeks on both ITV and Eurosport, you would be forgiven for thinking that Maria Sharapova is the dominate player on the WTA Tour in this generation.
However, if you follow tennis for more than just the Grand Slam events, you would be very aware that the Alpha Female is Serena Williams, a player that is very likely to go down as one of the true legends of the Tour.
Serena has dominated Sharapova ever since losing back to back matches against her back in 2004 at Wimbledon and Los Angeles and even the Russian is the first to admit that she has to do something different to change the outcome in this one. Their recent matches have been fairly comfortable wins for Williams when it is all said and done and Sharapova has won just 1 of the last 18 sets they have competed against one another.
It says a lot that she has got to 6-4 or better in 5 of the last 18 sets as Williams has totally outplayed her- Williams hits the ball better than Sharapova, has more power and has the more consistent serve and all of this points to a win for the American, her second in Roland Garros. Sharapova isn't likely to get forward and attack the net and I can't see what she is capable of doing different to change the outcome of this match.
The problem for Sharapova is that she won't feel comfortable doing what she needs to change this match and I think Serena has had her one slip in this tournament that she seems to have in Grand Slams when coming through against Svetlana Kuznetsova. While I think the Russian will have some success at times in this one, it is hard to see how she can do enough consistently to hurt Serena and I like Williams to come through fairly comfortably.
6 of the last 7 matches between these players has seen Serena Williams win very easily and she can add to that with a 62 64 win in this one.
MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
French Open Update: 19-14, + 8.68 Units (64 Units Staked, + 13.56% Yield)
Sunday, 27 January 2013
Australian Open Men's Final Pick 2013 (January 27th)
The last match of the Australian Open Grand Slam tournament involves who I consider to be the two best players in the World at the moment.
It should be a fascinating match between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, two players who know each other's game inside out and both have a chance of making history. Novak Djokovic will become the first male player to win 3 in a row in Australia if he wins, while Andy Murray can become the first player to win his first 2 Grand Slam titles back to back.
I don't believe fatigue is a real factor in the contest as both players have had some time off since their Semi Final and this isn't the scheduling problem that the US Open encounters over the years when they try and play the Men's Semi Finals on the Saturday and then the Final on the Sunday- clearly that is unfair to the winner of the second Semi Final, especially if they are involved in a long match, but I don't believe that factors in here.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Andy Murray: I think both of these players are capable of winning this tournament, but I liked Novak Djokovic at the start of the tournament and there hasn't been a lot to make me think that won't be the case on Sunday.
Both players will likely have a fair bit of success when the other is serving, but I just believe the Serb is mentally tougher than his opponent and that may end up being the difference between the players.
I can't imagine either being whitewashed and there is probably a higher chance of seeing a deciding set than a 3-0 win for either player in my opinion. However, I just feel Djokovic is going to win the bigger points and come through in this one in four sets and so I'll have a small interest in him to do so.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 4.33 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 17-26, - 11.92 Units (78 Units Staked, - 15.3% Yield)
It should be a fascinating match between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, two players who know each other's game inside out and both have a chance of making history. Novak Djokovic will become the first male player to win 3 in a row in Australia if he wins, while Andy Murray can become the first player to win his first 2 Grand Slam titles back to back.
I don't believe fatigue is a real factor in the contest as both players have had some time off since their Semi Final and this isn't the scheduling problem that the US Open encounters over the years when they try and play the Men's Semi Finals on the Saturday and then the Final on the Sunday- clearly that is unfair to the winner of the second Semi Final, especially if they are involved in a long match, but I don't believe that factors in here.
Novak Djokovic win 3-1 v Andy Murray: I think both of these players are capable of winning this tournament, but I liked Novak Djokovic at the start of the tournament and there hasn't been a lot to make me think that won't be the case on Sunday.
Both players will likely have a fair bit of success when the other is serving, but I just believe the Serb is mentally tougher than his opponent and that may end up being the difference between the players.
I can't imagine either being whitewashed and there is probably a higher chance of seeing a deciding set than a 3-0 win for either player in my opinion. However, I just feel Djokovic is going to win the bigger points and come through in this one in four sets and so I'll have a small interest in him to do so.
MY PICK: Novak Djokovic win 3-1 @ 4.33 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Australian Open Update: 17-26, - 11.92 Units (78 Units Staked, - 15.3% Yield)
Saturday, 9 June 2012
French Open Woman's Final Pick (June 9th)
We have got down to the final two ladies in the Women's event and while one of the players will not have surprised too many people, the other is a big story.
Maria Sharapova has a chance to win her first French Open and also complete a career Grand Slam, but I think this is more important for her for another reason. I think a win for Sharapova will give her even more confidence that she can join some of the more illustrious names in the history of the Women's game by winning a few more Grand Slams.
Even if Sharapova wins, it will mean she has four Grand Slam titles and that is still a long way short of Serena Williams and a few short of Venus Williams and I think the Russian has the desire to be in the same bracket as those two players. She has lost the last two Grand Slam Finals she has contested in Australia this year and at Wimbledon last year, so there is a mental hurdle for her to overcome.
On the other hand, Sara Errani would be a big surprise as the player to come out of the top half of the draw. Don't be mistaking it as a fluky run as she has beaten some big names like Ana Ivanovic, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Sam Stosur and she is clearly comfortable on clay having won the Women's Doubles title with Roberta Vinci.
Errani has had a wonderful season on the clay and she deserves this opportunity and it will be interesting to see how she handles the nerves that will surely accompany her on to the court, especially early in the contest. It will be key for the Italian to try and hang tough early as Sharapova is a great front runner and she doesn't want to find herself down by a set in double quick time because that is a long road back.
I am hoping it will be a fun Final.
However, I won't lie and will be hoping Maria Sharapova doesn't make the Final too much fun. Anyone who followed the outright picks at the start of the tournament will know we have already picked up 4 units thanks to Sharapova reaching this stage and now we have her at 9.00 to win the title.
Some may want to steady their position by putting a few units on Errani to cover all eventualities, but I think Sharapova is probably going to be too strong so I am going to keep the outright as it is.
MY PICK: No pick- Got Maria Sharapova in the outrights so no need to go back in
FRENCH OPEN UPDATE: 22-23, + 3.36 Units (75 Units Staked)
Maria Sharapova has a chance to win her first French Open and also complete a career Grand Slam, but I think this is more important for her for another reason. I think a win for Sharapova will give her even more confidence that she can join some of the more illustrious names in the history of the Women's game by winning a few more Grand Slams.
Even if Sharapova wins, it will mean she has four Grand Slam titles and that is still a long way short of Serena Williams and a few short of Venus Williams and I think the Russian has the desire to be in the same bracket as those two players. She has lost the last two Grand Slam Finals she has contested in Australia this year and at Wimbledon last year, so there is a mental hurdle for her to overcome.
On the other hand, Sara Errani would be a big surprise as the player to come out of the top half of the draw. Don't be mistaking it as a fluky run as she has beaten some big names like Ana Ivanovic, Svetlana Kuznetsova and Sam Stosur and she is clearly comfortable on clay having won the Women's Doubles title with Roberta Vinci.
Errani has had a wonderful season on the clay and she deserves this opportunity and it will be interesting to see how she handles the nerves that will surely accompany her on to the court, especially early in the contest. It will be key for the Italian to try and hang tough early as Sharapova is a great front runner and she doesn't want to find herself down by a set in double quick time because that is a long road back.
I am hoping it will be a fun Final.
However, I won't lie and will be hoping Maria Sharapova doesn't make the Final too much fun. Anyone who followed the outright picks at the start of the tournament will know we have already picked up 4 units thanks to Sharapova reaching this stage and now we have her at 9.00 to win the title.
Some may want to steady their position by putting a few units on Errani to cover all eventualities, but I think Sharapova is probably going to be too strong so I am going to keep the outright as it is.
MY PICK: No pick- Got Maria Sharapova in the outrights so no need to go back in
FRENCH OPEN UPDATE: 22-23, + 3.36 Units (75 Units Staked)
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