US Open Tennis Day 15 Pick 2025- Men's Final (Sunday 7th September)

Over the last couple of years, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz have moved clear of the pack in men's tennis and they are set to meet for a third Grand Slam Final in a row.

One or the other has dominated the Grand Slam titles since the beginning of the 2024 season and this is the Final that the majority of supporters would have wanted to see when the US Open draw was made.

Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz over 40.5 games: The Wimbledon Final ended in four sets in favour of Jannik Sinner and he could have easily beaten Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets at the French Open Final instead of eventually being downed in five.

This perhaps explains the reason the World Number 1 is favourite to win the US Open title again, even if Carlos Alcaraz has tended to find a way to get the better of the head to head more often than not.

The win at Wimbledon snapped a run of five straight losses that Jannik Sinner had suffered against Carlos Alcaraz, although matches have tended to be close. Beating the World Number 2 at a Grand Slam where Alcaraz had been a double defending Champion can only further the belief that the Sinner team has ahead of this Final.

Some doubts may have been raised by potential injury that Jannik Sinner could be dealing with in the Final- he was off for a medical timeout in the win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Semi Final, while Sinner has dropped a couple of sets in his run to the Final compared with Carlos Alcaraz who has won all six matches in straight sets.

Carlos Alcaraz has been serving really well at the tournament and that is going to be key for him.

In the Wimbledon defeat, Carlos Alcaraz did struggle a little bit with his consistency on the serve and he cannot afford to do that here.

All signs suggest he will be much stronger in New York City, although he is also going to be facing a Jannik Sinner serve that can be very tough to deal with when at his best. There were times in the Semi Final win that Sinner's serve lost some speed and he gave up more Break Points than could be imagined, but there is a day of rest between matches and the World Number 1 has made it clear that there is 'nothing to worry about' as far as what the injury is.

It does raise some doubts, as it should, but this has the makings of another competitive match between the two best players in the world.

Early breaks in the sets played at Wimbledon made it tough to cover the total games line set, but the speed in New York City should help the players to get through a few more service games.

We will need to see at least four sets, but that feels very likely with what we have seen from Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner in their head to head and the quality that both can produce on the hard courts.

The lean is with Jannik Sinner to find a way to win this Grand Slam title if he is at full speed, but that is a bit more doubtful and backing the two players to put a solid scrap on the board looks the best play.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner-Carlos Alcaraz Over 40.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Week 1 Picks 2025 (Thursday 4th September-Monday 8th September)

This is going to be a thread that does not feature my thoughts on the NFL season and that is solely down to the fact that there have been one or two time constraints that means the focus is mainly on the Week 1 Picks.

In the last few seasons, the NFL Picks have proved to be productive with a number of winning years put together.

Again, I will have more words about that in the Week 2 thread, which will be posted next Wednesday, but this is a thread that will be trying to get this season off to a strong start.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: The defending Super Bowl Champions look to have returned a very strong roster capable of repeating next February, although none of that talk is allowed inside the locker room.

Instead the focus in Week 1 of the 2025 season is making sure the Philadelphia Eagles are locked in on rivals Dallas Cowboys and not on the banner being raised.

Things will be starting afresh on Thursday Night Football and the Eagles will be looking to make an early statement.

Landon Dickerson is hoping to be available and that will mean the Eagles have an Offensive Line that can set the early tempo. Last season they were very important to Saquon Barkley's highly impressive year, and there is every chance that Philadelphia will be able to come out and run the ball very efficiently against this Cowboys Defensive Line.

That powerful Offensive Line will give Jalen Hurts time to throw the ball too and that should be especially the case on Thursday Night Football after the Dallas Cowboys made a huge decision to trade away Micah Parsons. This is a move that is going to overshadow much of the season in Dallas and will be judged in each passing week, but it looks like it will be difficult for the Cowboys to stop the Eagles having a balanced Offensive output.

This is a big spread for a first game of the season- in recent years defending Champions have not always been able to dominate in Week 1, but the Eagles should be doubly focused with this being a Divisional game.

Dak Prescott is back for the Dallas Cowboys and this is a Quarter Back who has enjoyed playing the Eagles in his career and he does have some quality skill players to pick up his passes.

However, the biggest test for the Cowboys is finding a way to run the ball and not put their Quarter Back in obvious passing down and distance.

The Dallas Offensive Line is not as strong as it has been in recent years, and it feels like it is going to be a challenge to run the ball against this Philadelphia Defensive Line. If they are forcing Dak Prescott to complete from third and long, there will be moments that the Quarter Back will have success, but it is also going to lead to potentially dangerous situations and turnovers could be key to the outcome of the opening game.

The Cowboys have to be motivated by the two blowout losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and they are unlikely to be manhandled early in this one.

Dak Prescott has two Wide Receivers that can keep the team ticking over early, but being one-dimensional against this Philadelphia Defensive unit is not going to lead to a lot of success.

The Eagles are 4-1-1 against the spread in the last six against the Dallas Cowboys and they may make some late plays to push past this line set for the kickoff game.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets Pick: Revenge games can be big motivators for players and Coaches, but both the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets will be led into this game by Quarter Backs who have something to prove.

Aaron Rodgers spent two years with the New York Jets, but it was not nearly as effective as the home fans would have hoped and a new Head Coach and General Manager decided they would move on from the veteran.

Suffice to say Rodgers has not been very happy with some of the decision making, while also taking offence to the fact that he had to pay for travel to a meeting he feels could have been done on the telephone. He has since signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Aaron Rodgers would love to open the season with a win on the road.

At the same time, he is replacing Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in the Pittsburgh Quarter Back room and the latter is in New York hoping to finally prove that he can be the face of a franchise having failed to hold down the job with the Chicago Bears and Steelers previously.

Justin Fields is going to make full use of the legs in this game against a team that will be well aware of his strengths and weaknesses.

However, the Offensive Line has lost a key player for the season in Alijah Vera-Tucker and that is going to make it tougher for the Jets, even if they are facing a Pittsburgh Defensive Line that showed real weakness down the stretch in the 2024 season.

There are some decent skill players around Justin Fields, but the Quarter Back will be aware of the qualities of the Pittsburgh Defensive unit and it could be a tough day throwing the ball. Establishing the run is going to be important for the Jets, but that injury on the Offensive Line hurts.

At the same time, the New York Jets Defense will be aware of what Aaron Rodgers can do and the veteran has not been with the Pittsburgh Steelers for too long. That could mean having some chemistry issues with his Receivers, notably DK Metcalf who has arrived from the Seattle Seahawks and so it is also going to be important for the Steelers to try and establish the run and give Aaron Rodgers the best chance to make plays.

If they can do that, Aaron Rodgers can use the chip on the shoulder to make the right passes in this one and put the Steelers in a position to win this one on the road.

Head Coach Mike Tomlin has not been a great favourite to back, especially when facing first year Head Coaches, and that is always a concern.

Backing a road favourite in Week 1 can be tough too, but Tomlin has had successes when having time to prepare for an opponent and his Steelers team are 4-1 against the spread in their opening game of the season. Only one of those games was as a favourite, although that was in 2020 in this Stadium against the New York Giants and the Pittsburgh Steelers were able to cover on that occasion.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

College Football Week 2 Picks 2024 (Saturday 7th September)

It has been one of those weeks where it has been impossible to sit down and write out some analysis of the College Football Picks for Week 2 of the 2024 season.

Week 1 proved to be a decent start with four winners from the six games selected so backing that up is going to be the only ambition for this early part of the year.

And next week should be a thread with a bit more reasoning behind the selections being made.

MY PICKS: Tennessee Volunteers - 8.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 28 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Washington State Cougars-Texas Tech Red Raiders Over 66.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Nebraska Cornhuskers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Iowa Hawkeyes - 2.5 Points @ 1.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Maryland Terrapins - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 13 Pick 2024- Women's Final (Saturday 7th September)

The tournament had been in a very strong position after the Quarter Final matches had been played, but the Semi Final results have been a blow to the overall numbers.

Two more matches are to be played, beginning with the women's Final on Saturday, and a strong end to the US Open would be welcomed.

Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 games v Jessica Pegula: Both of these players will feel they have overcome some tough challenges and mental obstacles in their run to the US Open Final.

Nerves are going to play a part for both Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka as they bid to win a maiden US Open title and in the case of Pegula, a maiden Grand Slam title full stop. There have been some criticisms faced by both players after coming up short in the business end of events time and again and that is going to be a test for either player if the winning line draws over the horizon.

We saw some of those nerves from Aryna Sabalenka in her Semi Final win over Emma Navarro having led 6/3, 4/2, but ultimately being dragged into a second set tie-breaker. You would have worried for Sabalenka if she had dropped that set and there is a feeling that the World Number 2 doesn't have the same kind of mental fortitude as other top players of the past, especially when someone is able to stay with her through her hot periods.

That will be the test for the home player who came through in three sets against Karolina Muchova having lost the first set 6/1.

Jessica Pegula was able to fight back in style, but it was a very close match that could have easily gone the other way and the feeling is that she will be the one that needs to raise her tennis levels more than the Belarusian standing across the other side of the net.

It was Aryna Sabalenka who was the stronger of the two players in the Cincinnati Final last month, which was won in straight sets, and that means Sabalenka has won five of the last six between the players. Things have been a bit more even on the hard courts with that victory in the Final meaning Sabalenka and Pegula have both beaten the other twice on this surface, and that should at least give the American some real hope.

Dealing with the nerves of the occasion will be the test for both- we have seen those pressures hindering Sabalenka and Pegula at different times throughout their careers and the New York City crowd can make it tough. You have to feel Aryna Sabalenka has the edge if she can serve near her best and that will put pressure on Pegula to keep up on the scoreboard, which can lead to cracks.

We have seen Jessica Pegula serving well enough to keep her opponent off balance, but the edge has to be with the World Number 2 and she can cover this line as long as the nerves do not get to her as the chance to add to her two Australian Open titles nears.

MY PICK: Aryna Sabalenka - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 William Hill (2 Units)

US Open Update: 26-19, + 6.24 Units (90 Units Staked, + 6.93% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2023 (September 7th)

We are down to the last eight Singles players in the final Grand Slam of the 2023 season and it feels like this is a tournament that any of those players can win.

Conditions at the US Open have been brutal over the last few days and it looks like they will go right through to the weekend, which means it has become a battle of fitness as much as having the quality of tennis to earn wins.

That was notable in Daniil Medvedev's win over his good friend Andrey Rublev as both wilted in the unbelievable heat and humidity at Flushing Meadows- it is certainly going to raise a talking point going forward whether players should have to play in such abnormal conditions or whether these big tournaments should use the tools available to them, eg the roof on the main courts in this case, and try and get the temperature regulated to a better level for spectators and performers.

It is not the straight-forward answer some think- personally I love watching players deal with wind and factors that go beyond their tennis, although it also should be noted that this week has been exceptionally hot and perhaps a limit has to be placed on how hot it can be like they do at the Australian Open with the 'heat rule'.

On Thursday we move into the two Women's Semi Finals and it means a late start for the Singles players with both played in the Night Session on Arthur Ashe.

That may be good news with the hottest part of the day out of the way, but humidity is going to be an issue and it has remained very warm through the evening.

After a sweep of the Day 10 Picks, the selections for the week are edging back closer to the black after a really poor Week 1 at the tournament.

Finishing with even a slight profit will be difficult without a perfect end to the US Open, but avoiding huge losses will still feel like a win after the position the Picks were in earlier in the second week.

Coco Gauff-Karolina Muchova over 21.5 games: These two players met in the Final of the big event in Cincinnati and it was won by Coco Gauff for the biggest title of her career. The American is looking to surpass that achievement by winning her first ever Grand Slam title, although Karolina Muchova is an extremely experienced and motivated player having reached the French Open Final in June and only just coming up short against Iga Swiatek.

You cannot ignore what happened in Cincinnati when they faced off, but it would be wrong to completely dismiss the runs the two players had to that Final.

Coco Gauff had been comfortable before an epic Semi Final win over Iga Swiatek, but she had still spent a lot less time on the court compared with Karolina Muchova who had needed almost two plus hours and all three sets to win her four completed matches to earn her place opposite Gauff with the title on the line.

This time Karolina Muchova is arguably the fresher of the two players having made serene progress into the Semi Final with a single set dropped. Compared to that, Coco Gauff has needed three sets three times already, although the dismissal of Jelena Ostapenko for the loss of just two games in the Quarter Final came at a very good time.

The serving numbers of the two players have been decent, but it is the return from where both Gauff and Muchova have been most effective.

It was the case in the Cincinnati Final as the two players combined for eight breaks of serve with Coco Gauff earning the five-three edge on the day. Both struggled win consistently behind serve, but you have to believe they will have a bit more coming out of that shot in this Semi Final with the two players likely to be fresher than they were for the last meeting.

Picking a winner is not easy- Coco Gauff has a 7-5 record against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts this season, while Karolina Muchova is 5-5 in those matches and with a narrow edge on the overall numbers. Even through the run to the Semi Final, the Czech player has perhaps been a little more consistent than Coco Gauff and Karolina Muchova has to be confident she can turn around the result that was set in Cincinnati.

Stronger serving should help both players, but they will also be well aware of the quality that will be coming from the other side of the net.

Whoever falls behind in the match will know there is a mountain to climb, but you do have to respect the fact that Karolina Muchova has been able to work out problems on the court throughout this year. She has pushed top 20 opponents into a final set decider in seven of the ten matches played against those players on the hard courts and Muchova should be much more ready to compete with Coco Gauff compared with the last time they faced off.

Coco Gauff will have the home crowd behind her, but has had one or two nervy moments in this tournament already. There is a lot of expectation on her shoulders to reach the US Open Final as soon as Iga Swiatek exited the tournament and Karolina Muchova is expected to make things much more awkward than Jelena Ostapenko, who is temperamental and liable to making a huge amount of errors like we saw in the Quarter Final.

Nerves will be an issue and this is a match that may need all three sets to find a winner, although two competitive sets might be enough to cover the total games line.

Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: These two players met at Wimbledon in the Quarter Final Round and now meet again at the next Grand Slam, although this time for a place in the US Open Final.

Both Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys may feel their very best tennis is played on the hard courts, but there is no doubt that the new World Number 1 has an edge having dismissed the Keys challenge as effectively as she did in SW19.

In reality, Aryna Sabalenka is the deserving favourite having played some strong tennis in her five wins in New York City and she has looked every bit the World Number 1 she is set to become. Of course, the Belarusian player would love to do that having put a second Grand Slam title in the trophy cabinet after winning the Australian Open back in January, but there are still a couple of mental demons that will need exorcising on Thursday evening.

Aryna Sabalenka has now reached the Semi Final in seven of the last nine Grand Slams she has played, but it cannot be ignored that five of the six matches played have ended in defeat. That includes at the French Open and Wimbledon since breaking through the Semi Final Round and winning the Australian Open so there are still one or two issues that need to be sorted out, the majority of which are going to do with handling the pressurised situations.

Despite her strong tennis and her successes, you cannot ignore how those Semi Final defeats have played out.

In 2021 Aryna Sabalenka was a set up at Wimbledon before losing that Semi Final, while later in the same year she came from a set down and then lost the decider at the US Open Semi Final against Leylah Fernandez.

In 2022 she took the first set in the Semi Final against eventual winner Iga Swiatek, but lost that US Open Semi Final.

Earlier this year Aryna Sabalenka came through a tight first set to beat Magda Linette in straight sets in the Semi Final in Melbourne, but she led by a break twice and served for the match in an eventual deciding set loss to Karolina Muchova at the French Open. A similar thing happened at Wimbledon where Sabalenka was a set and a break up against Ons Jabeur before losing yet another deciding set.

All of this cannot be ignored and it would be a surprise if this match does not get tight at some point considering how big Madison Keys has been hitting the ball. However, the American has not been nearly as convincing through her run at Flushing Meadows and was perhaps fortunate to get through her Quarter Final in straight sets, while that loss at Wimbledon to Aryna Sabalenka will be something that Madison Keys will have to try and forget.

On that day it was the Sabalenka serve that dominated the match and Madison Keys felt under pressure on her shot, which eventually broke down.

Madison Keys might not have the same mental scars from Semi Final losses as Aryna Sabalenka, but mainly because the latter's have all come in a relatively short period across the last two years. It should be remembered that Keys has played five Grand Slam Semi Final matches of her own and has only won one of those back in 2017 when she was eventually beaten in the US Open Final by compatriot Sloane Stephens.

In her last Semi Final appearance at a Grand Slam in Australia in 2022, Madison Keys was swatted aside by the then best player in the world in Ashleigh Barty.

While it can be difficult to be completely convinced by Aryna Sabalenka, the feeling is that she is serving at a higher level than Madison Keys and that is going to make a big difference in the outcome of this match. The expectation is that she can expose the Keys return game, and that should lead to what could be another strong win for Aryna Sabalenka against her American opponent at consecutive Grand Slam events.

If it gets tight, Sabalenka will have to prove to all that she is ready to become the dominant player on the Tour by pushing through, but the feeling is that she can use her serve to good effect and ultimately a place in the Saturday Final.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff-Karolina Muchova Over 21.5 Games @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

US Open Update: 37-33, - 5.04 Units (140 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2021 (September 7th)

We are down to the final few days of the last Grand Slam to be played in the 2021 Tennis season and half of the Semi Final line up will be set up by the end of Tuesday evening.

All four matches are going to be played on Ashe on Day 9 of the tournament beginning at Midday local time and finishing close to the early hours of the morning.

Elina Svitolina - 3.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: The US Open regularly throws up players making surprising runs in the tournament with the final Grand Slam of the season being played at a time when a long Tour begins to take a toll on players. This year looks to be no different on both sides of the draw with some players making their way into the second week of the US Open without showing a lot of form prior to the tournament.

One of those is Leylah Fernandez who celebrated her 19th birthday on Monday, a day before she plays in her first Quarter Final at Grand Slam level. Prior to this tournament, Leylah Fernandez had only been beyond the Second Round at a Grand Slam once before, while early losses in Tokyo, Montreal and Cincinnati will have dented some of the confidence of a player looking to make improvements on the Tour.

The Canadian reached a career best World Ranking in June and there is clearly plenty of talent that could see Leylah Fernandez moving much further up those Rankings in the years to come. Her performances in beating multiple Grand Slam Champions Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber in the last two Rounds are encouraging, but Leylah Fernandez had produced a 2-4 record against top 50 Ranked players on the hard courts in 2021 before this tournament began.

Losses to the likes of Barbora Krejcikova, Harriet Dart and Alison Riske in the summer hard court events makes the run here in New York City all the more surprising, but Leylah Fernandez may need to find another level again. Beating players like Naomi Osaka and Angelique Kerber will give her the confidence to believe there is another gear within her, but Elina Svitolina is playing at a considerably higher level.

Elina Svitolina won the Bronze Medal in Tokyo and had largely been involved in a disappointing season by her standards before that success. She has backed that up by winning a title in the week before the US Open began and nine wins in a row means the Ukrainian may be ready to finally win a Grand Slam having come close and ultimately struggled to deal with the mental side of things at the business end of previous events.

The four wins Elina Svitolina has produced in New York City have seen her produce an exceptional level and the numbers are backing that up. Her serve has been very effective, but it has also allowed Svitolina to tee off on the return of serve and she has broken at least three times in each match played.

The relatively short time spent on court should also mean Elina Svitolina is feeling fresh and it is going to be difficult for Leylah Fernandez to fight back from the kind of position she found herself in the last Round against someone in the form Svitolina is in.

These players have met once before on the hard courts in March 2020 before the Covid-19 pandemic shut down the Tour and Elina Svitolina was a deserved winner. On that day the serve was a key weapon for the higher Ranked player and I do think that is going to be the case in this Quarter Final which should mean Elina Svitolina is in a position to win and cover this handicap mark.

You can't ignore the run Leylah Fernandez is on, but her four losses to top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts in 2021 have been very one-sided and I think the Elina Svitolina level will give her every chance to cover this spread.

Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 games v Barbora Krejcikova: If you want to know the kind of improvements Barbora Krejcikova has made as a Singles player you can note that she was outside the top 100 of the World Rankings when the 2020 US Open was played. Now she heads into this Quarter Final inside the top 10 and she is a Grand Slam Champion having won the French Open title back in June.

Some players have struggled to build on a maiden Grand Slam, but Barbora Krejcikova has won another title since the French Open and the results have remained consistently strong. Losses to Belinda Bencic and Ashleigh Barty on the hard courts over the last few weeks might suggest that Barbora Krejcikova still needs to move up a level to compete with the very best players on the Tour on this surface.

However, the Czech player has to be massively respected and she did reach the Dubai Final earlier this year as well as winning a hard court title in Prague. She has not dropped a set at the US Open and Barbora Krejcikova overcame a second set collapse in her win over Garbine Muguruza in the Fourth Round to underline the kind of confidence she is playing with.

Confidence is not going to be an issue for Aryna Sabalenka either and the Belarusian has made comfortable progress through the last three Rounds. The numbers have remained at an elite level as Aryna Sabalenka has made her way through the draw and that is a slight concern for Barbora Krejcikova whose own numbers have slipped in each Round of the US Open.

Both players will feel they have a serve that can give them an opportunity to take control of rallies from the off, but it is Aryna Sabalenka who is showing off an aggressive return which is putting opponents under immense pressure. Reaching the Semi Final at Wimbledon was a breakthrough for Sabalenka who has underachieved in Grand Slam tournaments despite becoming one of the top players on the WTA Tour and I do think the run will have given her plenty of belief about her game and where it can take her.

The World Number 2 should be able to produce the heavier serve of the two players in this Quarter Final and Aryna Sabalenka is going to get after the Barbora Krejcikova second serve which can make all the difference in this match. I think it will be a good one with plenty of quality tennis to enjoy, but Sabalenka looks to be playing at the higher level while Krejcikova may just be weakening as we get into the business end of the tournament.

Having a Grand Slam title behind her means Barbora Krejcikova is unlikely to go away easily, but Aryna Sabalenka can use the heavier weight of shot to keep the dominating wins coming.

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Carlos Alcaraz over 38.5 games: Both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer have missed the US Open, but Novak Djokovic is still representing the old guard at an extremely high level. However, there are some talented youngsters on the ATP Tour and two of those have reached the Quarter Final with a massive opportunity to reach a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final in front of them.

Felix Auger-Aliassime has just turned 21 years old and his appearance in the Quarter Final means he has managed to reach that stage in back to back Grand Slam events. His opponent is actually younger than him and Carlos Alcaraz at 18 years old looks like a really strong prospect as he continues what has been his best Grand Slam run.

The Spaniard is considered the future of men's tennis from that nation and Carlos Alcaraz backed up a big win over Stefanos Tsitsipas by coming from 2-1 down to beat Peter Gojowczyk in the Fourth Round. Carlos Alcaraz may have been fortunate to beat Stefanos Tsitsipas by the numbers, but his three other wins at the US Open have been impressive and he has been playing at a level that makes him dangerous in this Quarter Final.

Over the last twelve months Carlos Alcaraz has played well on the hard courts and he has certainly played well enough to think he can win a match like this one. He has spent a considerable amount of time on the court in each of the last two wins, but fatiguing issues should not be something that only Alcaraz should be worrying about.

That is largely because Felix Auger-Aliassime has been pushed hard in every match played in the tournament and he has spent longer on the courts than his opponent. His numbers have been steady in the tournament and it is wastefulness on the break points which has perhaps made the last two matches more difficult for Felix Auger-Aliassime than they should have been.

In those two matches the Canadian has broken six times, but he has had 30 break points, although the return may give him an edge in this match. Much will come down to whether he can take his chances and I do think Carlos Alcaraz is playing well enough to believe he can win at least one set even if Felix Auger-Aliassime is the favourite to progress to his first Semi Final at this level.

Carlos Alcaraz has to improve behind the serve having allowed his last two opponents to combine for fifteen breaks of serve with at least seven in each match. He is facing someone who can be a littel erratic on the return though and I do think the two players can produce a competitive Quarter Final which leads to this total games mark to be surpassed.

I do worry that one of them could fall away if they are behind with tiredness creeping in, while the emotional and mental challenge is one that both players are not going to be used to. Felix Auger-Aliassime has the experience of playing in a Grand Slam Quarter Final which may give him the edge, but I would not be surprised to this match go four, and potentially five sets.

The consistency of Felix Auger-Aliassime may be enough to see him through, but I am looking forward to seeing this match, one that could be deciding Grand Slams in the years ahead.

Daniil Medvedev - 9.5 games v Botic Van De Zandschulp: Any time you get into a Quarter Final of a Grand Slam you have to be expecting tight, competitive matches, but this one looks like being a one-sided match on the face of things. The layers have the same sense with a huge spread for this Round of a Grand Slam event, but Daniil Medvedev is playing at an incredible level and loves to be in New York City.

The crowd may not always be behind Daniil Medvedev, but that inspired him to reach the Final here two years ago and now he just loves playing in the atmosphere that is generated at this Grand Slam.

Daniil Medvedev has to be really pleased with his level since his Quarter Final defeat at the Olympic Games- he has won the title in Toronto, reached the Semi Final in Cincinnati and has barely broken a sweat to win his four matches at the US Open. To put it most simply, Daniil Medvedev is playing at an elite level and has not allowed his standards to slip in any match he has played at this tournament and the numbers need to be massively respected.

The Russian has only dropped serve three times in four matches, but Daniil Medvedev has barely been pushed on this side of his tennis. It is unlikely that Qualifier Botic Van De Zandschulp is going to get a lot more joy from the return than the first four players that Medvedev has faced and this is a huge challenge for the Dutchman.

All credit has to be given to any Qualifier who has managed to back that up with four main draw wins and Botic Van De Zandschulp is going to be given a massive boost in the World Rankings. He should be able to play at the 2022 Grand Slams without needing to enter any Qualifying tournaments and Van De Zandschulp has already beaten two top 15 Ranked opponents on his way through to the Quarter Final.

The run has come out of left field with little hard court tennis played this summer, while the numbers suggest Botic Van De Zandschulp has been able to play the big points really efficiently to keep his run going. That won't be easy to maintain against Daniil Medvedev and I do think the Qualifier is going to have to serve better than he has in this tournament to stay with the World Number 2.

Botic Van De Zandschulp has faced double digit break points in three of the four matches played in the main draw and now he has to deal with an opponent who has been in fine form. Daniil Medvedev has broken at least five times in each match played this week and I do think he is going to have too much for the Qualifier in the form Medvedev is bringing to the court.

The breaks and the confidence of the World Number 2 should see him work through a couple of sets with little fuss and players have struggled to win games against Daniil Medvedev this week. Botic Van De Zandschulp may feel he is serving well enough to challenge that, but Medvedev is someone who will get a lot of balls back in play and he will believe his superior groundwork will be enough to force the breaks and move through to another Semi Final here at Flushing Meadows.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Aryna Sabalenka - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Carlos Alcaraz Over 38.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 9.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 31-26, + 1.34 Units (114 Units Staked, + 1.18% Yield)

US Open Day 8 Tennis Picks 2020 (September 7th)

So where else can this thread start but with the absolutely unbelievable defaulting of Novak Djokovic which means he is out of the US Open and has blown a huge chance to edge to just two Grand Slams behind Roger Federer in the all-time Men's list?

Down 6-5 in the first set of his Fourth Round match, Djokovic was clearly frustrated having already missed three set points, and also needed some treatment on his shoulder following a pretty heavy fall in the eleventh game. A perfect storm came together...

It was clearly not an intentional act to hit the lines judge at the back of the court, but ultimately Novak Djokovic has to take responsibility for where he hits the ball at an irritating time. I do think the line judge overplayed the incident, but again I have to accept that it doesn't really matter and perhaps it was the surprise of the situation that caught her unaware.

The World Number 1 is going to feel absolutely horrible when he wakes up on Monday morning as he was the clear favourite to win the US Open in the easier half of the draw. A moment has cost him when he could have effectively hit that ball anywhere he liked, but where he did, and he would not have suffered the biggest consequence he has.

The referees had no choice but to default Djokovic with the way their rules stand and it would have perhaps been even more controversial if it had not happened that way, but it is a situation that the World Number 1 will have to live with and use to motivate him for the remainder of his career at the top of his game.

It does mean a third of four Outright selections have exited the tournament, although one having to retire mid-match with an injury and the other being Defaulted is nothing but poor fortune. They might not have gone on to win, but that really wasn't the way I expected them to lose either.

I did not have any Tennis Picks on Day 7 and that was because it was an emotional day for me personally and I simply was not going to look into the matches on the day.

Sunday was difficult, but life moves forward and that means we are onto Day 8 at the US Open with the remainder of the Quarter Final matches being put together.

I will have a fuller thread for Day 9 at the US Open, but for now I will place the selections for the remaining Fourth Round matches below:

MY PICKS: Vasek Pospisil-Alex De Minaur Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Felix Auger-Aliassime-Dominic Thiem Over 38.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Matteo Berrettini @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Maria Sakkari-Serena Williams Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Victoria Azarenka - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Elise Mertens-Sofia Kenin Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 33-28, + 1.56 Units (122 Units Staked, + 1.28% Yield)

US Open Day 13 Picks 2019- Women's Final (September 7th)

Two more winners from the Men's Semi Final matches that were played on Friday means this is going to be a winning tournament, although it has not fully made up for the past four weeks just yet.

I have to be happy with the 2019 season which has backed up the 2018 one with plenty more winners in the book and a healthy return. Having two more winners from the Finals to be played this weekend would be the perfect way to round things off before I have a few days off from the Tennis Picks.

First up is the Women's Final on Saturday and you can see my selection as well as the updated US Open totals below.


Serena Wiliams - 4.5 games v Bianca Andreescu: The Final of the women's tournament is taking place on Saturday and it is a rematch of the shortened Toronto Final from last month. On that day youngster Bianca Andreescu took the title home ahead of Serena Williams who was forced to call it a day after just four games were played, but the veteran looks much healthier now and the accumulation of the tournament certainly gives her the edge.

Where Serena Williams has barely been pushed and dismissed the challenge of her last two opponents for the loss of just five games, Bianca Andreescu has had to dig deep with back to back matches that have gone over two hours.

There was a lot of emotion put into the win over Belinda Bencic as Andreescu came back from 2-5 down in the second set, one in which she trailed by a double break twice. Winning five games in a row will give the youngster plenty of confidence to take into the match, but there is also the possibility that all of this tennis is going to add up and affect the Canadian in what is the biggest match of her career.

Her numbers over the last twelve months suggests Andreescu is anything but an easy touch and the two big titles won in Indian Wells and Toronto shows this is a player for the big occasion. That has to be factored in here and Serena Williams has lost her last three Grand Slam Finals as she bids to get up to twenty-four so I do think she has to be dealing with some nerves too.

Ultimately I do think Serena Williams is going to be the fresher of the players even with a day of rest between matches and I think that is going to be a big issue for Bianca Andreescu to deal with. Over the course of the tournament Williams has played at a higher level and while I respect the battling nature of the young Canadian, I do think she is going to perhaps be a little fatigued after some tough matches and having to play for the third time in four days.

The return has been a key factor for Andreescu who managed to work the big points very well in her Semi Final win over Belinda Bencic, but Williams is serving fantastically at the moment and that should keep the Canadian under the cosh. Ultimately Andreescu is going to have to have a huge serving day to really compete in my opinion, especially with the fatigue aspect that has to be in play.

I can imagine Andreescu lays it all on the line early and gives Serena Williams some real problems with her movement and ability to blunt some of the power, but the longer the match goes the more fatigue could be the difference by the end.

It is a big number when you think of the levels Andreescu has produced, but I think this is the right time for Williams. Her levels over the last three Rounds have been very, very good and if she serves as she has been I think only nerves will hold her back.

I don't think that will be the case once the match goes on and I think it will be more evident that Bianca Andreescu doesn't have a lot left which should see Williams win and cover in the Final.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 27-17, + 10.68 Units (88 Units Staked, + 12.14% Yield)

College Football Week 2 Picks 2019 (September 7th)

The first week of the College Football season was spread over two weekends, but it is in the books and it was a relatively decent start for the Picks to follow on a positive 2018.

Week 2 is another very busy one and I have analysed a few of my picks and added others to the 'MY PICKS' section below.

I should have a longer thread ahead of Week 3, but in Week 2 I am looking at getting this season really going with some momentum behind it.


Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Mississippi State Bulldogs Pick: It might not have been the best performance they are going to produce in 2019, but the Mississippi State Bulldogs will be very happy to have gotten away to a 1-0 start. Winning non-Conference games is a sure fire way to get close to a Bowl bid before heading into the very difficult scheduling of the SEC and the Bulldogs should be very much favoured to exit Week 2 of the 2019 season at 2-0.

That is taking nothing away from the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles and there is the fact that they should be highly motivated to take down a higher Ranked in-State rival. They are coming in off a very strong win in Week 1 and the team has 10 starters back on the Offensive unit and 6 back on the Defensive side of the ball which makes the Golden Eagles arguably the favourites to win the Conference USA Championship.

Southern Mississippi will also be confident from the fact they beat SEC Kentucky Wildcats in 2016 and last year gave SEC Auburn Tigers all they can handle in a narrow road loss. A similar level of performance is possible for them with nothing to lose here and all the pressure being on the favoured Bulldogs to win the game.

The Offense may feel they can have some success against the Bulldogs who only have 4 starters back on the unit and who gave up 28 points last week to Louisiana on a neutral field. They did only allow 13 points per game in 2018, but the losses have already shown up in the difficulty Mississippi State had last week in stopping Louisiana and I do think that will give Southern Mississippi the belief they can at least push their Power 5 opponent.

In terms of this spread much is going to be decided on the Golden Eagles Offensive unit facing the Bulldogs Defensive unit. If the latter can find a way to at least make some big plays they should be comfortable in scoring the points to pull away for the win.

Joe Moorhead will be looking for improvement Defensively, but he will be pleased with the way Tommy Stevens started at Quarter Back in taking over from Nick Fitzgerald. Last week Stevens threw 2 Touchdown passes and also rushed for another Touchdown, although I do think the Golden Eagles have had an improving Defense in recent seasons and so it will be a big statement for the new Quarter Back to guide the Bulldogs to anything above 30 points.

Tommy Stevens can do that with the healthy Running Backs by his side and it was Kylin Hill who had most success last week with almost 200 yards on the ground. He has to find a way to establish the run against the strong Southern Mississippi Defensive Line, but after the performance in Week 1 I would not put it past the Bulldogs to back it up and have another strong week.

The Bulldogs were 5-1 against the spread as the home favourite last season and they were also strong in non-Conference games. The Southern Mississippi performance at Auburn twelve months ago is one that does make me wary of opposing them here, but I think the Bulldogs Defensive unit can show a little better than last week which can help them just edge clear for the win and the cover.

Southern Mississippi have been a good underdog to back when given more than 9 points in recent times, but Mississippi State have had the better of this in-State rival with a 3-1 record against the spread in the last four between them. They beat the Golden Eagles by 49 points in 2014 and 18 points in 2015 and I will back Mississippi State to cover here.


Texas A&M Aggies @ Clemson Tigers Pick: The National Championship may have ended up with the Clemson Tigers, but they may not have made the PlayOffs if they had not been able to hold off the Texas A&M Aggies in 2018. That is probably not something that is likely to have happened even if they had lost, but Clemson won't have forgotten how close they came to a defeat in College Station as they host the Aggies in Week 2 of the 2019 season.

It is certainly raising some intrigue to this game even though the Tigers are big favourites to beat the Aggies. Clemson are bringing back 8 Offensive starters from last season and also 4 Defensive starters, but it is the development of Trevor Lawrence at Quarter Back which may make the Tigers favourites to win the National Championship not only in 2019, but 2020 too.

Like may big schools, Clemson know they have to plug in new starters each season with many of their big names likely going to leave to play in the NFL as soon as they eligible. However the standard of play at this school over the last few years means they get their pick of some of the top recruits in the nation so I can't imagine there is going to be a big drop off from them Defensively, even with four starters coming back.

We will learn how much the Tigers have remembered from their game with the Aggies from 2018 as Kellen Mond leads the Aggies who have 7 Offensive starters back from last season. Mond had a huge game in College Station to almost secure the upset, but this time the Clemson Tigers will feel they have a Secondary that can make bigger plays and prevent the Quarter Back beating them through the air.

It will still be up to Mond though as it is unlikely the Aggies are going to have a lot of joy running the ball against the Tigers Defensive Line. I expect he will be confident after a decent performance in Week 1, but playing on the road in Memorial Stadium is going to be a completely different test for the Quarter Back than when the Aggies hosted the Tigers in 2018.

There is also a more set way of playing for the Tigers this time around with Trevor Lawrence the undisputed starting Quarter Back. He did not need to be at his best to beat the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets in Week 1, but Lawrence has proven to be someone who can thrive in a big game spot and this is most certainly one of those.

Lawrence is going to need to be at his best if he is going to take on this Aggies Defensive unit which is not expected to have a drop off in 2019 after a strong 2018. The Aggies will want to improve the points per game given up, but this is a tough place to start and I do think Clemson are going to be treating this game like a 'revenge' one even though they managed to win last season.

It should mean we get the very best effort from Clemson and I do think being able to host this game will mean they come out and make a statement by blowing past another SEC West team.

Both teams have some strong trends which means they have to be respected, but I do think the Clemson Tigers are arguably the best team in College Football and the motivation of not allowing this game to be as close as the 2018 one between these teams will get an 'A plus' performance from them. The Tigers do have a difficult game against Syracuse on deck having been beaten by their Conference rivals in 2017 and winning by just 4 points in 2018.

Jimbo Fisher teams are not ones that I want to be opposing when it comes to these spread picks, but Texas A&M will be facing a different looking Clemson this time. I am expecting Trevor Lawrence to make some big plays throughout this game and it should be enough for the Clemson Tigers to win and cover as they create history with a seventeenth straight win for the first time in school history.


San Diego State Aztecs @ UCLA Bruins Pick: Chip Kelly had a big reputation during his time as Head Coach of the Oregon Ducks and the UCLA Bruins have hired him after his short spell trying to impact the NFL. Last season the Bruins finished 3-9 in their first season under Chip Kelly and there is a real expectation that this team can at least double that number of victories in 2019 with the 19 returning starters they are bringing back to the field.

An opening week defeat to the Cincinnati Bearcats would have been a blow for the UCLA Bruins even though Cincinnati might be considered the best team in the American Athletic Conference. What would have bothered Kelly more than the defeat was the fact his team only produced 14 points after averaging less than 25 points per game in 2018.

There is expected to be an improvement Offensively and Defensively in the second year of any system so the Head Coach will be looking for a young team to show they are much better than the performance in Week 1. It would be wrong to rule a line through the Kelly impact after one game, but the Bruins fans might begin to lose their patience if UCLA are beaten at home in Week 2 against an opponent they have never been beaten by.

San Diego State Aztecs only finished 7-6 in 2018, the first time in four years they had not won double digit number of games in a season. The Aztecs won in Week 1, but they largely disappointed Offensively, although San Diego State will believe they have the Defensive unit that can at least give them a chance in any game they play.

That belief will remain strong even though only 5 starters have returned from 2018 on the Defensive side of the ball and UCLA are going to need to be a lot better in Week 2 compared with Week 1 if they are going to win this game. The Bruins were missing some key players on the Offensive side of the ball who should be returning this week and I think that makes a big difference for them in helping produce better numbers.

Moving the chains won't be easy, but the UCLA Bruins showed improvement in the second half of 2018 and I am going to credit the Bearcats for holding them down last week. With some key players back this week I do think they can offer more problems for the San Diego State Aztecs to deal with, but the key to covering the spread may be how well the two teams can play when the Aztecs have the ball Offensively.

A change in system is being put together Offensively for the Aztecs and I think that is going to take some working through to really see the best of them in 2019. As I have said, you don't want to make sweeping statements about how a team is going to do after one game, but the Aztecs averaged just 20 points per game in 2018 and this could be another difficult year to find the consistency they want on that side of the ball.

The Aztecs will want to establish the run against the Bruins, but the latter played well Defensively last week in the loss against Cincinnati and I think that is going to be the reason they can win and cover in Week 2. It isn't easy to trust the UCLA Bruins after such a poor performance Offensively, but I think they will be better this week with a healthier team taking to the field.

UCLA have a strong record against San Diego State and the latter are 1-8 against the spread in non-Conference games as the road underdog of less than 14 points. While the Bruins have not exactly been a covering machine as a favourite in non-Conference games, they are 10-1 against the spread when favoured by less than 9 points in the first of back to back home games.

The Bruins bounced back from losses last season with a 5-3 record against the spread following a loss and I think Chip Kelly will see a much better effort all around from his team which leads to the cover.


ULM Warhawks @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: One of the more stunning results in the opening week of the 2019 season has to be the collapse Florida State had in the second half against Boise State. Falling to 0-1 in that fashion the year after a 5-7 finish meaning missing out on a Bowl Game has already put Willie Taggart under pressure as Head Coach even if he is pointing out the positives from Week 1.

Much bigger things were expected from the Seminoles in 2019 having looked like a team that is going to be improved on both sides of the ball. 2018 was the first time Florida State finished with a losing record since 1976 and they failed to make a Bowl Game for the first time since 1982, but with 8 starters back on both the Offense and the Defense meant they were coming into the season with expectations of being much more competitive.

The defeat to the Boise State Broncos will have hurt and I do expect to see a big reaction from the Seminoles when they open up Week 2 against an inferior opponent. They are playing an improved ULM Warhawks team who have 15 starters back this season, but even that improvement is not expected to be enough to really expect them to compete with a school like Florida State.

James Blackman had a very good start to life as the Florida State Quarter Back and I don't think it was a huge surprise that there were some inconsistencies in the second half when the Broncos adjusted Defensively. The start made should mean Florida State are going to be averaging much more than the 21 points per game produced in the 2018 season and the experience of the Offensive unit should see them establish the run effectively in this game.

It should mean Florida State can score their points in this one, although I do wonder if the up-tempo Offense being run last week is just slowed down a touch to make sure the Defensive unit is able to get their rest at times. The weather in Florida can be very difficult to deal with and especially when Defenses are spending too long on the field which was a definite issue for the Seminoles last week in the defeat to Boise State.

ULM are bringing back 7 starters to the Offense so they will believe they can have some success in this one, but I think they are facing an angry Florida State team. The Defense are going to want to step up and show Week 1 was an aberration rather than the rule for the Seminoles and I think that will show up here.

The Warhawks could have some success because of the experience they have and they are heading into a bye week meaning they can put in every ounce of effort to beat the Seminoles. However I do think the difference in level of these teams will show up and I am not expecting Florida State to take their foot off the peddle after coming in off a defeat.

They are also facing a Warhawks team who are 1-5 against the spread in their last six non-Conference games and I am going to look for Florida State to cover a big number in a bounce back effort.


LSU Tigers @ Texas Longhorns Pick: One element of the new College Football PlayOff which I have appreciated more than any other has to be the feeling that schools know they have to take some chances with the non-Conference schedule to give themselves an opportunity to make the final four in December/January. It has meant we get to see more very big games early in the season than some of the mismatches we used to get and there are two teams in Week 2 who meet one another with real PlayOff ambitions for the season.

The LSU Tigers and Texas Longhorns might be behind the Alabama Crimson Tide and Oklahoma Sooners in their respective Divisions, but the winner of this one will have a huge result on their schedule which may mean a single defeat through the rest of the season would still mean they are a leading contender to take a PlayOff spot.

An inexperienced LSU Tigers team finished 10-3 in 2018 and that their jump in the experience numbers means they are certainly a team with big ambitions. A dismantling of Georgia Southern was expected, but the level of performance will have made the Tigers fans very happy and a team with 8 starters on both sides of the ball and that includes having a starting Quarter Back Joe Burrow back to lead the team.

This is a very strong team on both sides of the ball, but they have to play a legit road game at the Texas Longhorns who finished with a 10-4 record in 2018 and who beat the Georgia Bulldogs in the Bowl Game. The Longhorns had three consecutive losing seasons before Tom Herman was hired and he has led them to winning years back to back including the first double digit winning year since 2009.

Herman was under some pressure after a poor start to 2018, but his team is much less experienced this year so matching ten wins won't be easy. There are only 5 starters returning on the Offensive side of the ball and 3 on the Defensive unit, but Herman is in his third year which means his recruits are involved and the Longhorns could be better than some expect.

Most will have them as a Big 12 Conference contender and I do think the Longhorns showed how good they can be in the win over Louisiana Tech in Week 1. Tom Herman will be the first person to tell you that his team are going to have to be much better in all aspects to beat a Ranked team like the Tigers, but being at home he has to like his chances with a better team than the amount of returning starters would suggest.

Having a lack of experience could be a problem and this is a game in which the spread has moved tremendously in favour of the visitors, but that should be something that inspires Texas. The Longhorns have enjoyed playing as the underdog and they are 8-2 against the spread in that spot with Tom Herman as the Head Coach.

Sam Ehlinger is an experienced Quarter Back which can be key for the Longhorns to make some big plays in this game to keep things competitive and I do think the underdog spot is one that they will thrive in. The LSU Tigers are clearly a very good team and one I think can challenge the Crimson Tide in the SEC West, but I do think the pressure is on them and they are a team that have struggled to cover spreads as the road favourite.

I expect the Texas Longhorns can make enough Defensive plays to remain competitive and this could be a relatively low-scoring game. With that in mind I have to say I really like the points in this one and I will back the Longhorns with the start at home as the fired up 100,000 crowd urge their Texas team to the upset.

I am not sure they will see it, but I also don't think the Longhorns will be blown out at home.

MY PICKS: Mississippi State Bulldogs - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 17 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 22 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Kansas State Wildcats - 24.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Virginia Tech Hokies - 28.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
SMU Mustangs - 3 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
UCF Knights - 11 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Auburn Tigers - 16.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)
Arkansas Razorbacks + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 1: 3-2, + 0.67 (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

US Open Day 12 Picks 2018 (September 7th)

It is only in the last few years that the US Open made the correct decision to scrap 'Super Saturday' and move the men's Semi Finals to Friday which gives the two winning players a good amount of time to recover for the Final.

Prior to that decision being made, the winner of the second Semi Final was clearly in a very poor position when it came to getting ready for the Final and so it was only right the US Open did what the other three Grand Slams have and that is play both men's Semi Finals on the Friday.

At this moment I would make Novak Djokovic the favourite to win the title in Flushing Meadows, but it will all play out over the last three days of the US Open.


Rafael Nadal - 2.5 games v Juan Martin Del Potro: There has been a lot of time spent on the court for Rafael Nadal and I do have to wonder if that is going to have an impact on his performance when he takes on Juan Martin Del Potro in the US Open Semi Final.

The five sets needed to see off Dominic Thiem meant Nadal was out on court well over three hours and the conditions in New York makes that very difficult to deal with. Add in the dropped sets in the Third and Fourth Round and you can see that Nadal has not been at his very best in the tournament where he is the defending Champion.

It will likely be more tough conditions to deal with on Friday when Nadal and Del Potro take to the court, but the latter will be confident having destroyed the Spaniard in this Round when going on to win the US Open back in 2009. Juan Martin Del Potro has only dropped one set in the tournament so far so has to be feeling very good about his game as he looks to change the narrative on matches with Nadal at the Grand Slams.

This is the fourth Grand Slam in the last five played that Nadal and Del Potro have come up against one another and it is the Spaniard who has won the last three. The wins in the US Open twelve months ago and at the French Open came very comfortably for Nadal, but it was a tough five setter at Wimbledon and Del Potro has been serving well enough to think he is not going to go away quietly in this one either.

However I do think the surface condition may narrowly favour Nadal who has shown tremendous strength of character to get out of some difficult spots so far in the tournament. He hasn't been at his dominant best but there has been enough to like from Nadal to think he can beat Del Potro for a fourth Grand Slam meeting in a row.

Juan Martin Del Potro has been serving very well and he is happy enough with the speed of the court, although the former Champion has not played anyone like Nadal yet. The performance at Wimbledon will have given Del Potro more confidence he can challenge Nadal, but the previous two matches had been won by Nadal with some comfort and I do think the speed of the court will suit the Spaniard.

The time spent on court is a concern for Nadal, but I think he will be a little too good for Del Potro despite the form the latter has shown in the tournament.


Novak Djokovic - 6.5 games v Kei Nishikori: The second Semi Final is a repeat of one played a few years ago when Kei Nishikori got the better of Novak Djokovic, although the head to head has been one-sided ever since.

This has always been a match up that Djokovic has enjoyed as he gets a good rhythm from Nishikori and simply does everything a little better than the Japanese player.

There are times when Nishikori builds momentum within a match, but generally it is Djokovic who dictates the rally and the tempo of the match and it has led to some strong wins for him. The matches are not always so clear cut on the scoreboard which does make this a big number of games for Djokovic to clear, but the slightly cooler temperatures in New York have to help and I think the former World Number 1 and Wimbledon Champion is going to be a little too good in this Semi Final.

Kei Nishikori has to be respected because he has played well this week, although the tough five set win over Marin Cilic will have taken something out of the tank. The day in between the Quarter Final and this Semi Final will have certainly helped, but Nishikori has been blighted by physical problems throughout his career and is one of my main knocks as to why he hasn't played in more Grand Slam Semi Final and Final matches.

There will be some quality tennis produced by these two players, but I think Djokovic is going to have the large majority of break points. If he is more clinical than he was against John Millman in the Quarter Final I would expect Djokovic to be able to win this match and cover the number.

I do think the conditions being that much cooler will help Djokovic, and I will back the former World Number 1 to potentially set up the Final all fans at the US Open and watching at home will be hoping for.

MY PICKS: Rafael Nadal - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

US Open Update: 24-21, + 3.74 Units (80 Units Staked, + 4.68% Yield)

US Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2017 (September 7th)

This trip to New York City has been a memorable one already having seen some quality matches on Arthur Ashe Stadium the last couple of days and also meeting Maria Sharapova when having dinner one night with my wife.

It may have all been topped off on Wednesday night when I got to meet Carmelo Anthony and having the chance to have a brief word with him as well as a photo.

I honestly don't think I will ever have a better holiday than this one has been.


The women's Semi Finals are played on Thursday in the evening session and that means I am only really going to have a chance to watch part of the matches as I will be flying back home later this evening.

Four American women in the Semi Final line up has to have been a long shot at the start of the tournament and all four left will believe they are good enough to get things done. It should be two good matches, but I have to say I am leaning to the two favoured players to get it done. You can see why I am leaning that way below.


Venus Williams - 2.5 games v Sloane Stephens: First up on Arthur Ashe Stadium on Thursday will be the two women who won their Quarter Final matches on Tuesday as Sloane Stephens takes on Venus Williams. On Tuesday Stephens was helped through to the last four by a vocal crowd in support of her, but it may be a little different on Thursday with the sentimental favourite likely to be Williams.

Both players came through a final set tie-breaker in their Quarter Final matches, but there was a different feel about both. While it does feel like Sloane Stephens needed a bit of luck in her win, Venus Williams looked to be the much stronger player compared with Petra Kvitova and could have got it done in straight sets if she had been a little more clinical in the second set she dropped.

The numbers certainly seem to be favouring Venus Williams who has been serving really well but backing that up with aggressive returning. The one poor serving day came against Carla Suarez Navarro and it does have to be said that Sloane Stephens is as good a mover as the Spaniard but with more firepower off the ground.

That makes Stephens a dangerous opponent and I do think she has been returning well enough to cause some problems for Venus. There is no doubt that Stephens has used her return game as the foundation of her successes throughout this summer, but facing someone who can serve as effectively as Williams is a huge challenge for her on that side of her game.

It is likely to be magnified if Stephens continues to blow hot and cold on the serve as she has been. Four of her five opponents in this tournament have won at least 41% of the points behind the Stephens serve and now she faces an opponent in Venus Williams who has been able to really dictate points against the opponent serve very effectively.

Sloane Stephens has beaten Venus Williams in a Grand Slam before at the 2015 French Open, but this surface should suit Williams much more. The conditions looked to have warmed up again in New York and I think Venus Williams will be able to get more out of her serve which helps her move into a third Grand Slam Final in 2017.


Madison Keys - 2.5 games v Coco Vandeweghe: This is a huge match for both Madison Keys and Coco Vandeweghe with the chance of making a real breakthrough at the highest level by reaching a maiden Grand Slam Final. Getting to the Final and potentially winning the US Open could see either one of these players begin to fulfil the potential so many believe they have.

Tension is likely to be play a key part in the match, but I do think the big serving both Keys and Vandeweghe rely on can help them settle into the match. The chance to win points with one or two strokes is a great way to try and control the obvious nerves which will exist with both players recognising the opportunity that is in front of them.

The fascination of the match comes from the fact that neither player is the best returner, but I think Keys has perhaps shown a little more over the course of several months than Vandeweghe. I feel that can be an important distinction between the players and one of the reasons I give Keys the edge.

The other factor has to be the two wins Keys has had over Vandeweghe on the hard courts this past six weeks. She beat her in the Final in Stanford and followed that up with another win in Cincinnati ten days later and I think that does give Keys the mental advantage. While the return statistics were similar in the first match, the second match saw Keys have a much better read of what was coming her way and I think she can build on that in the second Semi Final to be played on Thursday.

Those two matches were tight affairs with the serving that both players can provide proving to be the key and I think this match has every chance of needing two tight sets or potentially three sets to decide it. I can see serving dictating things for much of the evening but eventually I am looking for the Keys superiority in both serve and return to come through and make the difference on the day.

Backing Keys to win this one and cover this number for the third time against Vandeweghe this summer is the call. I wouldn't be surprised if the total games is covered too with the serves likely to dictate matters, but I will simply look for Madison Keys to win and cover the number here.

MY PICKS: Venus Williams - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)