NFL Week 1 Picks 2025 (Thursday 4th September-Monday 8th September)

This is going to be a thread that does not feature my thoughts on the NFL season and that is solely down to the fact that there have been one or two time constraints that means the focus is mainly on the Week 1 Picks.

In the last few seasons, the NFL Picks have proved to be productive with a number of winning years put together.

Again, I will have more words about that in the Week 2 thread, which will be posted next Wednesday, but this is a thread that will be trying to get this season off to a strong start.

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: The defending Super Bowl Champions look to have returned a very strong roster capable of repeating next February, although none of that talk is allowed inside the locker room.

Instead the focus in Week 1 of the 2025 season is making sure the Philadelphia Eagles are locked in on rivals Dallas Cowboys and not on the banner being raised.

Things will be starting afresh on Thursday Night Football and the Eagles will be looking to make an early statement.

Landon Dickerson is hoping to be available and that will mean the Eagles have an Offensive Line that can set the early tempo. Last season they were very important to Saquon Barkley's highly impressive year, and there is every chance that Philadelphia will be able to come out and run the ball very efficiently against this Cowboys Defensive Line.

That powerful Offensive Line will give Jalen Hurts time to throw the ball too and that should be especially the case on Thursday Night Football after the Dallas Cowboys made a huge decision to trade away Micah Parsons. This is a move that is going to overshadow much of the season in Dallas and will be judged in each passing week, but it looks like it will be difficult for the Cowboys to stop the Eagles having a balanced Offensive output.

This is a big spread for a first game of the season- in recent years defending Champions have not always been able to dominate in Week 1, but the Eagles should be doubly focused with this being a Divisional game.

Dak Prescott is back for the Dallas Cowboys and this is a Quarter Back who has enjoyed playing the Eagles in his career and he does have some quality skill players to pick up his passes.

However, the biggest test for the Cowboys is finding a way to run the ball and not put their Quarter Back in obvious passing down and distance.

The Dallas Offensive Line is not as strong as it has been in recent years, and it feels like it is going to be a challenge to run the ball against this Philadelphia Defensive Line. If they are forcing Dak Prescott to complete from third and long, there will be moments that the Quarter Back will have success, but it is also going to lead to potentially dangerous situations and turnovers could be key to the outcome of the opening game.

The Cowboys have to be motivated by the two blowout losses to the Philadelphia Eagles and they are unlikely to be manhandled early in this one.

Dak Prescott has two Wide Receivers that can keep the team ticking over early, but being one-dimensional against this Philadelphia Defensive unit is not going to lead to a lot of success.

The Eagles are 4-1-1 against the spread in the last six against the Dallas Cowboys and they may make some late plays to push past this line set for the kickoff game.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets Pick: Revenge games can be big motivators for players and Coaches, but both the Pittsburgh Steelers and New York Jets will be led into this game by Quarter Backs who have something to prove.

Aaron Rodgers spent two years with the New York Jets, but it was not nearly as effective as the home fans would have hoped and a new Head Coach and General Manager decided they would move on from the veteran.

Suffice to say Rodgers has not been very happy with some of the decision making, while also taking offence to the fact that he had to pay for travel to a meeting he feels could have been done on the telephone. He has since signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers and Aaron Rodgers would love to open the season with a win on the road.

At the same time, he is replacing Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in the Pittsburgh Quarter Back room and the latter is in New York hoping to finally prove that he can be the face of a franchise having failed to hold down the job with the Chicago Bears and Steelers previously.

Justin Fields is going to make full use of the legs in this game against a team that will be well aware of his strengths and weaknesses.

However, the Offensive Line has lost a key player for the season in Alijah Vera-Tucker and that is going to make it tougher for the Jets, even if they are facing a Pittsburgh Defensive Line that showed real weakness down the stretch in the 2024 season.

There are some decent skill players around Justin Fields, but the Quarter Back will be aware of the qualities of the Pittsburgh Defensive unit and it could be a tough day throwing the ball. Establishing the run is going to be important for the Jets, but that injury on the Offensive Line hurts.

At the same time, the New York Jets Defense will be aware of what Aaron Rodgers can do and the veteran has not been with the Pittsburgh Steelers for too long. That could mean having some chemistry issues with his Receivers, notably DK Metcalf who has arrived from the Seattle Seahawks and so it is also going to be important for the Steelers to try and establish the run and give Aaron Rodgers the best chance to make plays.

If they can do that, Aaron Rodgers can use the chip on the shoulder to make the right passes in this one and put the Steelers in a position to win this one on the road.

Head Coach Mike Tomlin has not been a great favourite to back, especially when facing first year Head Coaches, and that is always a concern.

Backing a road favourite in Week 1 can be tough too, but Tomlin has had successes when having time to prepare for an opponent and his Steelers team are 4-1 against the spread in their opening game of the season. Only one of those games was as a favourite, although that was in 2020 in this Stadium against the New York Giants and the Pittsburgh Steelers were able to cover on that occasion.

MY PICKS: Philadelphia Eagles - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

College Football Week 1 Picks 2025 (Saturday 30th August-Monday 1st September)

There were a handful of College Football games played in Week 0, but the official kickoff on the new season begins this weekend.

The Playoff Committee have made it pretty clear that they are not too concerned if a team loses a game, and perhaps even two, but they do want proper scheduling.

Week 1 has plenty of big games, but the top one looks to be hosted by the Ohio State Buckeyes who will take on visiting Texas Longhorns- these are two teams that will be expecting to not only make the Playoff, but to actually win a National Championship.

The winner will likely be in the thoughts of the Playoff Committee all season, while the losing team have plenty of tough games left to prove themselves.

Other teams in the Power Conferences have also chosen to face one another and it is an opportunity to get a good look at some of the leading contenders.

College Football is an ever changing landscape with the new use of the transfer portal and with players heading to the NFL every year, but there are some schools that are always expected to be contending.

Pressure is on the likes of the Alabama Crimson Tide and LSU Tigers to get back into Championship contention out of the loaded SEC.

Michigan Wolverines were another disappointment last season, but they will do well to get the better of the Penn State Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes, while a number of non-Power Conference teams will be hoping to impress enough to earn a spot in the final twelve Playoff later in the year.

The College Football Picks returned a profit in Week 0, but there are number of selections from the games to be played across this weekend.

It is still very early in the season and you do want to be a little cautious as teams gel together, but that is the challenge for the page.

In recent years it has been a disappointing return from the College Football Picks, unlike the NFL selections, but the start made offers some encouragement that 2025 can be a much better season.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: The new expanded Playoff format has motivated teams to pick stronger non-Conference opponents and there are some big games to be played in Week 1. We are in a new era where a single defeat and perhaps even two losses are not going to prevent a team from earning a spot in the Playoff, although neither the Alabama Crimson Tide nor Florida State Seminoles will be thinking about opening with a loss.

Last season was a big disappointment for both teams.

In the final year of the four team Playoff at the end of the 2023 season, the Florida State Seminoles were controversially left out, despite being an unbeaten Power 5 Conference Champion. There was a lot of talk going into last season about having it all to prove and to make sure the Seminoles were not put in that position again, but Florida State struggled out of the gate and ended up with a poor 2-10 record.

After being left out of the College Football Playoff, it was no surprise that the Seminoles were beaten up in the Bowl Game they were given, although that does mean they have lost eleven of their last thirteen games.

The transfer portal has been used heavily by the Seminoles as they look to bounce back from what is the worst season in fifty-two years, while there are new Offensive and Defensive Co-Ordinators to work with the much reshaped roster.

A new Quarter Back has also been signed and there is immediate pressure on Tommy Castellanos who has started twenty games for the Boston College Eagles over the last two seasons. He threw 33 Touchdown passes with the Eagles, but Castellanos added 19 Interceptions to that, while 14 scores on the ground suggests he will be a dual-threat capable of running the new Offensive plan.

The pressure is added to this opening game because of comments that Tommy Castellanos made in the summer suggesting the Crimson Tide will not be able to stop him, and that has been heard loud and clear in Alabama.

Three losses in the regular season meant the Alabama Crimson Tide were the first team out of the College Football Playoff last season, despite some believing they deserved their place in the twelve team format. The defeats to Vanderbilt and Oklahoma really hurt Alabama and so Head Coach Kevin DeBoer is going to be under some pressure of his own to deliver.

He won't have too many excuses with the talent that Alabama have up and down the roster and they look like they will be better than the Florida State Seminoles in most positions.

The one doubt is at Quarter Back where Ty Simpson came into College as a five star recruit, but who has had to bide his time before finally being named starter for the first time.

Ty Simpson has thrown just 50 passes in College Football and this is a true road start so a significant test for his character. He does benefit from playing behind one of the top Offensive Lines at this level, while the Crimson Tide are loaded with talent at the skill positions and that should really help this Quarter Back settle in.

It is never easy to have a true road game and even tougher in Week 1 when there is so much uncertainty around teams and the capabilities that each have.

However, there looks to be a big gap for the Seminoles to bridge after last season and this Alabama team look about as good as any in College Football. If Ty Simpson settles in, the Crimson Tide will be firmly focused on returning to the Playoffs at the end of this season and they may just wear down the hosts and put a dominant win on the board.

UTSA Roadrunners @ Texas A&M Aggies Pick: The move from the Big 12 to the SEC was always going to be challenging for the Texas A&M Aggies and they have struggled to remain competitive in a Conference where the wear and tear builds up every week.

They have remained at a decent level, but only two of the last eleven seasons have ended with more than eight wins on the board and so it has become very difficult to force a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Mike Elko took over as Head Coach last season and led the Aggies to an 8-5 season after Jimbo Fisher was removed following two seasons combining for a 12-13 record.

Having that year under Elko's guidance should help the Aggies know what to expect, while they are bringing back a talented Quarter Back in Marcel Reed.

After losing the opener in 2024, the Aggies bounced back with seven straight wins before the late capitulation, but there were some encouraging signs. Marcel Reed finished the season with 12 Touchdown passes and 4 Interceptions and added another 6 Touchdowns on the ground, while he is also a lot more experienced now.

There is plenty of talent around Reed on the Offensive side of the ball and that is going to give the Aggies fans plenty of excitement whenever their team is in possession.

We should see early signs of that against the UTSA Roadrunners who have lost huge pieces on both sides of the ball, but especially on the Defensive unit which does not have a single returning starter. Facing this potentially very explosive Texas A&M Offense is going to be a huge challenge out of the gate and it may put the pressure on the Roadrunners to keep up on the scoreboard.

UTSA finished with a 7-6 record last season and that was mainly down to a run of four wins from the final five games played. They did lose one of their early games at the home of the Texas Longhorns in a blowout and avoiding that is going to be a huge challenge for this team with the uncertainty on the Defensive side of the ball.

However, the Roadrunners should be capable of playing their part in this game with a more experienced Offensive unit that is led by Quarter Back Owen McCown who had 25 Touchdown passes and 10 Interceptions while starting all thirteen games in 2024.

There is some talent around him on this side of the ball and the big question mark about the Aggies and their ability to improve the record is regarding the Secondary. Owen McCown should have some success in this contest, even if it is stepping up to SEC level, and certainly more than he had against the very good Texas Longhorns last season.

Despite that, the Aggies should still have enough to pull away in the second half as they look to open up with something of a statement win against a rival.

A late stop will likely be needed to avoid the backdoor cover, but the home crowd can help the Aggies push enough to do that and begin the season with a solid win.

LSU Tigers @ Clemson Tigers Pick: They snuck into the College Football Playoff as Conference Champion last year and that despite suffering three losses in the regular season, but the Clemson Tigers look a lot more experienced and ready to enjoy another strong campaign.

They look to be the team to beat in the ACC having won the Championship Game against the SMU Mustangs, although neither team was able to make it out of the First Round in the Playoffs.

There is more expectation around the Clemson Tigers going into 2025 and they can make an early statement when hosting the LSU Tigers from the SEC in Week 1.

After winning another National Championship with players who are now performing at a very high level in the NFL, the LSU Tigers have perhaps struggled to match the heights in recent seasons. Head Coach Brian Kelly is going into his fourth year at the helm and while a 29-11 record is solid enough in three seasons, anything less than a Playoff push may not be considered good enough.

If the expanded Playoff format had been in place in his first season, Brian Kelly may have led the Tigers into the post-season having won the SEC West Division and ultimately fallen short against the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game. Since then the Tigers have fallen short of the previous year two seasons in a row and that is why there will be some pressure to get things right.

Much like Clemson, the LSU Tigers will be bringing an experienced Quarter Back into the season and Garrett Nussmeier finished 2024 with over 4000 passing yards and 29 Touchdowns thrown. That is encouraging, while the LSU Tigers look pretty stacked all over the field and a genuine contender to have a very strong run this year.

One concern is that the Offensive Line has been completely rebuilt through the transfer portal and that means there will be some teething troubles. Hearing Brian Kelly mention that he is willing to use a number of options throughout this opening game will be a concern for the fans, especially as the LSU Offensive Line will have to deal with the power that the Clemson Defensive Line have up front.

Give Garrett Nussmeier time and he will be able to link up with quality skill players nad attack this potentially underwhelming Clemson Secondary, but so many games come down to the Line of Scrimmage. If the home team can be disruptive up front, they can stall drives and hand the ball over to an experienced Quarter Back of their own.

Cade Klubnik threw for over 3600 yards last season and added 36 Touchdowns to that number and he is a fourth year College Football player.

It is rare for some of the top schools to be able to lean on experienced Quarter Backs and especially not with the experience Klubnik and Nussemeier will be bringing into the game.

The feeling is that the Clemson Tigers have a bit more rhythm and knowledge of one another and that could make up the gap to the talent that the LSU Tigers edge.

With a bit more securing, Cade Klubnik may have more time to attack the LSU Secondary compared with his counterpart and that may make all the difference in what is a quality start to the new season.

Home advantage cannot be dismissed in what is likely to be a fiery atmosphere in Death Valley and it is the Clemson Tigers who may do just enough to win, and cover, in this big Week 1 opener.

Utah Utes @ UCLA Bruins Pick: The former Pac-12 rivals are going to open up the 2025 College Football season as non-Conference opponents and there are certainly going to be plenty of eyes on the UCLA Bruins.

The Chip Kelly era came to a conclusion with three straight winning seasons before the Bruins jumped ship for the Big Ten and they finished with a 5-7 record in DeShaun Foster's first season at the helm.

Four wins from the last six games would have given the UCLA fans something to hang onto going into this season, but it is the arrival of Quarter Back Nico Iamaleava from the Tennessee Volunteers that may have raised expectations. He had a solid year leading the Volunteers to the College Football Playoff, although subsequent reports about the handling of the departure to Los Angeles has soured people on the talented player.

Nico Iamaleava can change the headlines with his play, but he is going to be protected by an Offensive Line that will need to come together very quickly. Having time is always important to a Quarter Back, but particularly for one that may not have the top skill players that his family insisted he should have had at his previous school.

Going up against the Utah Utes Defensive unit is always going to be a huge challenge for the Quarter Back and the Bruins, especially with some speculating that the Utes may have the best Defense in the Big 12 Conference.

Making Utah potentially a Playoff team is the fact that the Offensive unit looks to be improved- it is now led by Devon Dampier who proved to be a dual-threat in his time with New Mexico. Adding to his comfort is the fact that Utah have also brought in New Mexico's Offensive Co-Ordinator and that is why they have been set as the road favourite in this Week 1 opener.

The expectation is that Utah will win the game, but Nico Iamaleava can handle the pressure and at least make sure UCLA are competitive even in defeat.

It does feel like the Bruins are much further behind overall compared with their former Conference rival, but having that experience at Quarter Back can at least move them into a position to earn a backdoor cover.

The Utes have dominated the recent series between these rivals, but the last two games have been split and this feels like a lot of points to be handing to the home team, even if they may have some early issues getting on the same page for the entirety of the four Quarters.

South Carolina Gamecocks vs Virginia Tech Hokies Pick: Atlanta plays neutral host for this Week 1 College Football game featuring teams out of the SEC and ACC and there are serious expectations around both teams.

The South Carolina Gamecocks finished 2024 with a 9-4 record and they had won six in a row to conclude the regular season, which meant narrowly missing out on the College Football Playoff.

Ignoring the Bowl Game result, you can understand why so many Gamecocks fans are very excited about this season and they are bringing back an experienced Quarter Back in LaNorris Sellers. This is always so important in College Football and the growth of Sellers in 2024 offers plenty of encouragement for how he can perform this season.

He does have some new skill players to work with, but LaNorris Sellers will be facing a Virginia Tech Secondary that is going to need a bit of time to bed in.

There is also a new Defensive Co-Ordinator to work with the players and that could take a touch longer to understand compared with what is still a familiar system for those in South Carolina.

Virginia Tech finished with a 6-7 record last season and the excuses are running out for Head Coach Brent Pry who has not turned things around for this school and is now entering his fourth season at the helm. A winning record might ease some of the pressure, but some Hokies fans will believe the team should be challenging right at the top of the ACC and for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

That might be asking a bit too much for a team that is hoping for a healthier year for Quarter Back Kyrone Drones, but who have to rebuild the Offensive Line and with a new Coach leading this group. If they were facing the South Carolina Defensive Line from last season, you would really have to worry about the Hokies Offensive Line, but there are some key players who have moved on from the Gamecocks and that may mean Drones having a bit more time.

There is still some experience on the Defensive unit, but South Carolina have the same issue as the Hokies in that they will need the new players to gel together pretty quickly around the stronger names on the roster.

An opening game in a big NFL venue will offer plenty of motivation and inspiration and this is an opportunity for both the Hokies and Gamecocks to lay down a marker for the season.

The edge has to be with South Carolina who have been tipped up as a potential Playoff team and they can open this season with a confident win to back up the strong end to the 2024 regular season.

MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide - 13.5 Points @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Texas A&M Aggies - 23.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

UCLA Bruins + 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

NFL Week 1 Picks 2024 (Thursday 5th September-Monday 9th September)

2023 was a strong season for the NFL Picks which concluded with being on the right side of the Super Bowl winner, which is always very welcome.

The 2024 season seems to have rolled around very quickly, but it is a situation where my longer thread with season predictions will have to wait until Week 2.

However, the Week 1 Picks will be placed in this thread and the one thing I do know is that it is likely to be another season where surprising teams come to the fore and contenders will fall by the wayside. There are some very strong Divisions from 1-4, while others are expected to be dominated by a leading team and the rest to follow.

All we can ask for is a positive Week 1 return to get this season going and ultimately to try and match the solid numbers produced last season.

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The 2023 season ended very disappointingly for the Baltimore Ravens having played so well to earn the top Seed in the AFC.

They were beaten in the AFC Championship Game, despite being a strong home favourite, and the Ravens are given an immediate opportunity in 2024 to show that they are ready to bounce back from the disappointment.

Losing to Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs might have stung even more when two weeks later the Chiefs won the Super Bowl. This time it is the Ravens who will be looking to spoil the mood when they head out on the road to face the Chiefs in Week 1 of the 2024 season and their motivation will be easy.

Things have changed in Baltimore and the Ravens will be looking for a new Offensive Line to gel very quickly in order to give Lamar Jackson a chance to survey the field when he steps back to throw the ball. The dual-threat of the Quarter Back will also be important, but again it is up to the new Line to come together very quickly as the Ravens will be looking to use the run to open the passing game.

It will still be baffling for Baltimore fans that their team only ran the ball eight times the traditional way in the AFC Championship Game, especially as it was a competitive game all things considered. This has long been the weakness of the Kansas City Defensive unit, but having a new Offensive Line may make it harder for the Ravens to get things going for Derrick Henry, while questions will be asked about how much Henry has left in the tank.

Being unable to run the ball with any consistency will make it tough for the Baltimore Ravens and Lamar Jackson will find throwing the ball against this Chiefs Secondary a challenge. That becomes all the greater if the Offensive Line are not able to keep a productive Chiefs pass rush from penetrating the backfield and it could be a tough day for Baltimore on this side of the ball.

The same could be said when the Kansas City Chiefs have the ball.

Patrick Mahomes may not have had the big personal season we have come to expect, but the Quarter Back was very strong in the post-season and the Kansas City Chiefs relied on strong Defensive play to earn another Super Bowl Championship.

This time the Chiefs have brought in some strong Receiving options for Patrick Mahomes and the moves made certainly should see the Quarter Back get back to producing the kind of numbers that have become the norm for him since taking over from Alex Smith. Rashee Rice is also considered a Wide Receiver who is going to come on leaps and bounds in his second year in the NFL, as long as he can steer clear of the off the field incidents which have been reported over the last several months, and Mahomes may have his best set of passing options for a couple of years.

Drops had been an issue for the Kansas City Chiefs, and that is the one concern, but the Receiving corps should be able to find space against this Baltimore Secondary.

This does put some pressure on the Ravens to try and rattle Patrick Mahomes and that is going to be a tough challenge for them against this Kansas City Offensive Line. If the Ravens cannot get to Mahomes, Kansas City should be able to open the season with a strong win and a cover of this line set.

Kansas City have won five of the last six games between these top AFC contenders, including in the Championship Game last season, and the Chiefs could be ready to make an early statement in the Week 1 opener. Lamar Jackson and company cannot be dismissed, especially as they are Coached by John Harbaugh who remains very strong when given time to prepare for an opponent, but Andy Reid is no slouch and the Chiefs are going to be wanting to show they are ready to become a three-peat World Champion.

Week 1 has come around very quickly and a lack of time, with the additional outside factors, means this is a much shorter thread than usual. You can see my Picks from the Week 1 games below with a longer thread to come in Week 2 as the season really begins to get going.

MY PICKS: Kansas City Chiefs - 3 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Arizona Cardinals + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bengals - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears - 3.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 4 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

San Francisco 49ers - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

College Football Week 1 Picks 2024 (August 31-September 2)

The realignment of rhe College Football landscape had become clear towards the end of the 2023 season, but actually seeing the huge Conference and the disintegration of the Pac-12 will have gotten fans talking.

Instead of Divisions, the new look Conferences are still determining how they want to figure out their schedules in the years ahead and so they have not tied themselves down this year. Eventually you have to figure Divisions will be back as the best way to really separate teams and give us the 'best' possible Championship Games, although there is also beginning to be a feeling that College Football is moving in a direction similar to the NFL and the individual Conferences will end up being brought together under a single umbrella.

That will be something that will play out in the months and years ahead, but the focus in 2024 will be the expanded College Football PlayOff.

Teams have been encouraged to remove some of the easier games on the schedule outside of Conference play and instead face other Power Conference opponents and we see a number of high-profile games in Week 1 of the season. The one that will perhaps pick up the most attention is the game between the Georgia Bulldogs and Clemson Tigers, two teams that will have big aspirations of being crowned National Champions at the end of the season.

There are plenty of other tough looking games and the Florida State Seminoles found out that you would be ill-advised to look past any opponent in any given week. However, with the expanded PlayOff, the Seminoles still have plenty to play as they look to bounce back to conclude Week 1 and there will be plenty of time impress with the schedule being played.

Big name players leave College Football every year as they look to take the next step in their careers in the pro Ranks, but Nick Saban was the big name Head Coach who called time on his tenure leading the Alabama Crimson Tide. He has left the school in good shape, but replacing Saban is going to be a huge challenge in the expanded SEC.

Moves have been made in other places too, but this was the big story at the end of the 2024 season and Saban will now allow the fans to all know his thoughts as an analyst going forward.

2024 was another good year for the NFL Picks, but not so much for the College Football selections. An improvement is going to be needed, but a good start will allow some momentum to be built and that has to be focus right now.

Poor weeks can be overcome, so the focus has to be on a week by week basis and not to worry too much about the end of season record while in August. Instead you have to believe that will take care of itself as long as some early consistency can be produced and that is the key in Week 1 of the 2024 year.

Georgia Bulldogs vs Clemson Tigers Pick: The College Football season of the Super-Conferences has kicked off with a big upset in Week 0, but Week 1 is when the majority of teams get underway.

In the ACC, the Florida State Seminoles were downed by the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets and that has just hardened the position of the Clemson Tigers when it comes to being the favourite to win the Championship. It will be a grind with the entire Conference placed in one Division, rather than the usual split Divisions, and the Clemson Tigers are coming into 2024 having produced their worst season in some time.

Any team that wins nine games in a season will be pleased, but the Clemson Tigers have set a really strong standard under Head Coach Dabo Swinney. It was the first time since 2010 that the Tigers had not ended the season with double digit wins and there is a pressure on this team to build on 2023 and make sure they are playing in the expanded College Football PlayOff this time around.

Only the Alabama Crimson Tide have had more invites into the College Football PlayOff than the Clemson Tigers, and missing out two years in a row will feel like a massive underperformance.

This time around, the Tigers bring an experienced Defensive unit back and they also have a Quarter Back that played last year and that is a boost for Clemson. No one will doubt the talent on the Defensive side of the ball, but the key for the Tigers is whether Cade Klubnik can grow having thrown for over 2800 passing yards and 19 Touchdowns last season.

Turnovers proved to be the Achilles Heel for Klubnik and he is going up against the Georgia Bulldogs Defensive unit that may be amongst the very best in College Football.

Last year was a disappointment for the Georgia Bulldogs- they won the National Championship in 2021 and 2022 and had been unbeaten until being upset in the SEC Championship Game. With so many Conference Champions producing strong seasons, the Bulldogs were another team left out of the PlayOff in controversial circumstances and this is a team that will head into 2024 looking to make a real statement.

Head Coach Kirby Smart has really taken the Bulldogs to the next level and any team that has won thirty-two of the last thirty-four games played since the beginning of the 2021 season has to be respected. The NFL will take some of the top talent, but this Bulldogs team is filled with those talented players ready to come in and show how good they can be and this is a team loaded again.

The consistency at Quarter Back is always a boost for the top contenders and Georgia will have Carson Beck behind Center in his second full season as the starter in this position. Last year he almost threw for 4000 yards and 24 Touchdowns, although Beck will know that his main ambition is to make sure he does not lose any game.

With a powerful Offensive Line, the Bulldogs can really grind opponents down with the run and even this Tigers Defensive Line may struggle to contain Georgia.

Both Defensive units are going to feel like they can control the outcome of this game, but the edge has to be with Georgia and the same can be said in the Quarter Back position. An expanded College Football PlayOff means there is perhaps less jeopardy in losing this opening game as there would have been last year, but both Dabo Swinney and Kirby Smart will be keen to see their team make a big, early statement.

The last time these teams met was in September 2021 and it was Georgia who won by 7 points in a game they had been the underdog. This is a big spread considering the kind of talent and expectations that the Clemson Tigers will have, but the Georgia Bulldogs will be angry about not being given a chance to three-peat as National Champions and they can come out and just remind the rest of their rivals about how good they can be.

Clemson have been a productive double digit underdog in recent years, but it is rare to find them in such a position- if the Quarter Back is still struggling with his turnovers, Georgia can make use of the extra possessions to win this game and cover a big mark.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ West Virginia Mountaineers Pick: Returning some key players on the Offensive side of the ball has raised expectations around the Penn State Nittany Lions who have won at least ten games in half of the ten seasons under current Head Coach James Franklin.

The problem in recent years has been the fact that Penn State have been playing in the same Division as the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes, two teams that have been regularly earning a spot in the College Football PlayOff. Adding the likes of the Oregon Ducks and USC Trojans to the Big Ten Conference has just meant a change in format in 2024 and the Nittany Lions are now part of one big Conference, rather than Divisions to win to earn a spot in the Big Ten Championship Game.

It makes the expanded PlayOff a target for the Nittany Lions, but Head Coach Franklin has made it clear that this an immediate tough test right out of the gate. A real road game is always going to be tough to open a season, but even more so when travelling to face the West Virginia Mountaineers who play out of the new-look Big 12.

After three losing seasons in four, Head Coach Neal Brown had to be concerned about his chances of holding onto his job at the beginning of the 2023 season. However, the Mountaineers put together a 9-4 record, which included winning a Bowl Game, and West Virginia will also be bringing back some experienced players to lead them.

Once again the big challenge is going to be deal with the raised expectations around the team after coming close to a double digit win total last year. The likes of the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns have moved to the SEC so there may be something of a void to fill at the top of the Big 12 Conference and that is certainly what the fans will expect from the Mountaineers.

Garrett Greene is returning at Quarter Back for West Virginia and the hope is that his experiences from 2023 will stand him in good stead in this campaign. He proved to be a dual-threat at the Quarter Back position with almost 2500 passing yards and 800 yards on the ground, but there is a hope that Greene will be able to grow as a passer.

These teams met last year, albeit in a game hosted by Penn State, and Garrett Greene really struggled with his passing having been restricted to 162 yards through the air. The problem for the West Virginia Quarter Back is he is going against a Penn State Defensive unit that looks experienced and having put up some very strong numbers last season.

Bigger news for the Nittany Lions is having Drew Allar returning at Quarter Back after a year in which he was not tasked with trying to win games. Instead he was a solid manager and Allar looked after his turnovers, which is vitally important, although this time there is more expected from him now he has the experiences of 2023 under his belt.

The Nittany Lions have added some quality Receiving options and a new Offensive Co-Ordinator is going to want to make an immediate mark on the team. A number of transfers have come into the Mountaineers Defensive unit, which could give them the depth that was lacking last year, and West Virginia played well enough to have something to build upon.

However, the Nittany Lions look a team that should be targeting a place in the new College Football PlayOff and they may just be able to quieten down a crowd before really taking control of this game. The spread is a big one, but the Nittany Lions Defensive unit may step up to force a couple of drives to stall and perhaps even turn the ball over, and that can give Penn State the chance to pull away from their hosts and cover this spread set.

Virginia Tech Hokies @ Vanderbilt Commodores Pick: For a long time, the Virginia Tech Hokies set the benchmark for success within the ACC, but those days look behind them.

For now.

There is a real belief that the end of the 2023 season may spark the Virginia Tech Hokies to not only finish near the top of the ACC standings, but to actually find themselves in a position to compete for the Championship and ultimately a place in the expanded College Football PlayOff.

Four of the previous five seasons had finished with a losing record and it felt like 2023 was going to be another, but the Hokies rallied to win their last two regular season games and then the Bowl Game to earn a 7-6 record. That alone might not have given the fans as much enthusiasm as they have going into the season, but the Hokies are bringing back a lot of the starters from last season, on both sides of the ball, and that is where Virginia Tech can grow.

Kyron Drones led the team at Quarter Back and the ability to present a dual challenge to Defensive units makes him and the Hokies that much more dangerous. This might be a road game to start the season, but Virginia Tech may not have been able to ask for too many opponents better than this one and especially not out of the Power Conferences.

The Vanderbilt Commodores have made several changes to their Coaching staff since the end of the 2023 season, but they have struggled in the SEC and have won just three Conference games since 2019. With changes there is always a hope that things can change quickly, but Vanderbilt will need time and they are changing the Offensive style, which leaves them vulnerable in 2024 as the new systems bed in.

Diego Pavia is expected to be given the starting job at Quarter Back having played at New Mexico State under the new Vanderbilt Head Coach Jerry Kill.

It should make the transition a little easier, but Pavia is stepping up his level and this Virginia Tech Hokies Defensive unit may be more accustomed as to how to deal with a dual-threat Quarter Back than most. We should see the team a little more aware of what they need to do and Vanderbilt suffered some big losses when playing the better teams last season, which is a concern in this game.

They are set as a considerable underdog, all things considered, but the Commodores can at least offer some resistance. However, eventually you would have to believe that the Virginia Tech Hokies will be able to show off the talent that had found momentum at the end of last season and the consistency should help the road favourite come away with a big win.

MY PICKS: Georgia Bulldogs - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Virginia Tech Hokies - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

UCLA Bruins - 13.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 31.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

NFL Week 1 Picks 2023 (September 7-11)

And just like that the off-season is over and a new NFL season is kicking off on Thursday evening with the defending Champions hosting the Detroit Lions.

Things have changed in the NFL, as they do every year, but the Kansas City Chiefs will still be there or thereabouts when it comes to winning yet another Championship. Ruling them out of the AFC Championship Game would be a mistake considering they have made it to that Game in all five years since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starting Quarter Back.

In saying that, the AFC looks loaded this season with the East looking like the Division that could provide at least three PlayOff teams. The Buffalo Bills were embarrassed in their last game, a PlayOff home defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals, but they had to deal with a lot at the end of last season and Josh Allen is unlikely to be making as many mistakes as he was putting on the board at the end of last season.

Aaron Rodgers joins the New York Jets and that is a huge upgrade for a team that already has a solid Defensive unit, while MY Miami Dolphins will go as far as Tua Tagovailoa's health with carry him. Mike White is a good looking understudy for the Dolphins, but Tagovailoa is the key after suffering multiple concussion issues last season and the tough schedule to start does make things difficult for Miami right out of the gate.

New England will make up a tough Division, while teams like the Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars are expected to build on last season. Both are still likely to be short of the very best in the AFC, including the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Burrow looking for revenge after a narrow loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game.

The NFC might not be as strong from top to bottom as the AFC, but there are quality teams around and the Philadelphia Eagles and San Francisco 49ers may continue to lead the way.

An injury to Brock Purdy made the NFC Championship Game something of a damp squib, but Nick Bosa has signed a shiny new contract with the 49ers and Purdy will be back to lead the team at Quarter Back. This should mean the 49ers are once again amongst the contenders to win it all, while the Philadelphia Eagles came up a little short in the Super Bowl, but look retooled to go again too.

The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions might be the closest contenders to those top two NFC teams, while the Los Angeles Rams will be better if they can remain healthier than they did when trying to defend the Super Bowl crown they had won the season before last. However, a number of the leading names from last season look a lot weaker now and it would be something of a surprise if the Eagles and 49ers do not meet in the Championship Game for a second year in a row.

In saying all this, the NFL has a tendency to throw up a surprise or two every year and it will be interesting to see how the 'script' has been written for 2023.

Last year it was Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks, and there are a couple of teams that look capable of a big bounce back year.

One is led by a former Seattle Quarter Back in the Denver Broncos, especially with Sean Payton back on the sidelines as a Head Coach, but the AFC West is loaded and nothing will come easy for the team with two games against the Champions and others against Miami and the New York Jets just before the Bye.

The Cleveland Browns look another team who can turn around their losing record from 2022, especially now Deshaun Watson has had more time getting back into the groove after missing over a year of the League. And a well Coached Tennessee Titans should also make some strides after a 7-10 record, but both are in the AFC and that is tough sledging throughout the season.

An element that may not change in 2023 is having a team with a losing record winning the NFC South after Tampa Bay did so with an 8-9 record last season. All four teams are still transitioning, but Derek Carr looks to have enough left in the tank to perhaps guide the New Orleans Saints to the Divisional crown after being traded from the Las Vegas Raiders.

There are always twists and turns in the NFL and that is what brings the fans and spectators back every year- 'Any Given Sunday' and all that!

Every week there is drama throughout the League, especially for Fantasy players, and this looks to be another strong season set to begin with Thursday Night Kick Off.

Week 1 Picks will be added to the thread below, but it will all begin with an underdog on the spread.

Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Recent seasons have seen the Kansas City Chiefs at the very forefront of the NFL and having the AFC Championship Game played at Arrowhead Stadium has become an annual event.

Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs have represented the AFC in three of the last four Super Bowls played and they have picked up two titles in that time, including last year in Arizona as Kansas City narrowly got the better of Reid's former team, the Philadelphia Eagles.

Winning the Super Bowl comes with the honour of being able to open the next season and the Kansas City Chiefs will be doing that on Thursday Night Football in Week 1 of the 2023 season. They will be hoisting another Championship banner and there will not be many people out there looking to oppose the Kansas City Chiefs from winning it all again next February, even in the loaded class of the AFC.

Once again changes have been made, but Patrick Mahomes is still here and so is Andy Reid which makes the Chiefs formidable. A new Offensive Co-Ordinator should not take too long in getting in with the schemes and the Offensive Line has been bolstered in order to offer Mahomes that much more time to make his big time plays in the backfield.

No one will consider the skill players around Patrick Mahomes to be of 'elite' level, but the Chiefs have a very strong scouting system and they seem to be able to plug the gaps. Last season they lost Tyreek Hill, but the passing game did not miss much of a beat without their speedy Receiver and Mahomes will bring the best out of those around him.

One elite player the Quarter Back would have been able to rely on is Travis Kelce, but he suffered a knee injury on the eve of the new season and is considered doubtful for the opener. At the moment the biggest concern for Kansas City is hoping Kelce has avoided a long-term ACL issue, but that looks to be the case even if it means the Chiefs have to go in a little short-handed against a team expected to make major strides in the coming year.

It has been a long time since the Detroit Lions were considered genuine contenders in the NFC, but Head Coach Dan Campbell deserves a lot of credit for changing the mindset of this team. He is a former Lion player and Campbell has really brought a culture change to Detroit and the team won eight of their last ten games to finish 9-8 in the 2022 season and only missing out on the PlayOffs because of a Week 4 loss to the Seattle Seahawks who snuck through on the head to head.

There is so much to like about the Lions on both sides of the ball and Jared Goff has embraced his time as Quarter Back of the team after arriving in a trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Los Angeles Rams and a Super Bowl ring. He has some talent alongside him behind this powerful Detroit Offensive Line, although the Lions will be hoping that another Receiver can step up alongside Amon-Ra St Brown, who looks like he will be healthy to go in the season opener.

Jared Goff is expected to have time behind the Offensive Line, especially as Kansas City will be without Chris Jones who is still holding out in his bid to have a new contract written for him. While Jones has admitted he could play immediately once said contract is signed, it is unlikely he suits up for Week 1 and that should help the Lions in what could be a potential shoot out.

Giving the Quarter Back time should see Goff have a big game, but the Kansas City Chiefs will believe they can do the same with Patrick Mahomes behind Center, even with Travis Kelce trending towards missing out.

And you can understand why the Chiefs will be confident when thinking Andy Reid is 9-1 in Week 1 games as Head Coach of the team, while Kansas City have averaged 33 points per game in opening games since 2017. They scored 44 points in a crushing road win at Arizona twelve months ago and it is tough to oppose the Chiefs in this situation.

However, Dan Campbell is someone who will have his Detroit team ready to compete after the slow start that cost them in 2022 and the Head Coach is someone who inspires the Lions. They ended the season in strong form as the road underdog and there is every chance that Detroit can do enough on both sides of the ball to avoid the blowout in this opening game.

Super Bowl Champions have a very strong outright record in the opening game of the new season, going 13-4 in the last seventeen, but the last two have been split 1-1. In both, the road team earned the cover too and the Detroit Lions can make it three in a row for the 'spoiler' heading into town to upset the Champions.

It is unlikely that the Lions win outright, but they are expected to be competitive and that makes the points being offered appealing enough. The line has shrunk in light of the news about Travis Kelce, but is still above the key number 3 and that could be enough of a start for Detroit to keep this one close.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Every year there seems to be a shorter than expected road favourite that catches the eye, but also makes you wonder if Vegas know more than they are letting on about the teams competing.

After seeing their win total go from eleven in 2020 to nine in 2021 to then just four in 2022, the Indianapolis Colts they had to make changes. The biggest changes are at Head Coach and Quarter Back as the Colts turn to Shane Steichen and Anthony Richardson in those respective roles.

Veteran players have not really worked like the Colts would have hoped in the Quarter Back position and Matt Ryan really struggled last year. Picking Anthony Richardson fourth overall and as the third Quarter Back selected from the opening four Picks will put some pressure on his shoulders, especially making his first start in the NFL.

However, many feel the pairing with a Head Coach who worked with Jalen Hurts last season can only be a positive for Richardson, while there still some decent skill players to work with in the passing game. Of course, Anthony Richardson will be able to use his legs too and this Jacksonville Jaguars Defensive unit is solid, but not impenetrable.

One disappointment for Richardson is that Jonathan Taylor will be missing in the backfield as it would have helped open up the passing lanes a little more. The Running Back and the running game in general was not much of a factor in the two games against the Jaguars last season, but you have to believe that the scrambling ability of the new Quarter Back will just aid that, especially compared to what Matt Ryan was able to offer.

Moving the chains is always a challenge for a rookie Quarter Back making his first start and Jacksonville will likely look to create confusion for Richardson. In saying that, the new Head Coach should help as the Colts look to take down the AFC South Champions from 2022.

Being the surprising Champions in what was a weak Division will have raised expectations around Jacksonville and especially as they won a Play Off game last year too. Doug Pederson won the Super Bowl with the Philadelphia Eagles and the Head Coach was clearly a good fit for Trevor Lawrence who had over 4000 passing yards in his second season in the NFL.

The Jaguars Offensive Line is perhaps still a question mark, and they will be challenged by the Colts Defensive Line, but Trevor Lawrence has been given plenty of solid looking skill players to complete the Offensive unit. The Jaguars can run the ball, and establishing that would really open up the Colts Secondary to the passing game run by Trevor Lawrence, who has Calvin Ridley ready to compete again.

An Offensive balance can be very important and there is a feeling that the Jaguars Receivers will have too much for the Colts Secondary in this opener.

Jacksonville started off very slowly last season and you have to believe that all involved with the team will be looking for much better this season. The momentum that was picked up down the stretch in 2022 is going to be key for the Jaguars as they look to open with a road win, and they will need all of that as they look to beat the Colts on the road for the first time in six years.

Anthony Richardson is likely going to surprise teams with the Coaching behind him, but Trevor Lawrence can out-duel him with more players around him that can make the difference in this game.

Nothing is ever as easy as it looks in the NFL, but the Jaguars winning this one the road looks the play.

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons: The NFC South looks like it is an open Division going into the 2023 season and that is largely down to the young teams that are still transitioning within. The favourites might be the New Orleans Saints, but both the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers will be feeling excited about the season ahead.

The Falcons will be heading into the season backing second year Quarter Back Desmond Ridder and surrounding him with some talented players on both sides of the ball. They have been helped by moving on some of their higher priced veterans and the Atlanta Falcons have to be targeting a PlayOff spot in the weaker NFC.

Much will depend on how much Ridder has grown having shown plenty of promise in limited outings in his rookie season in the NFL.

New Running Back Bijan Robinson looks like he could give the Falcons a serious punch of the backfield and he is playing behind an Offensive Line that helped the Atlanta Falcons average almost 160 yards per game on the ground. The rookie is expected to have a big season and keeping the team in front of the chains can only be good news for Desmond Ridder.

The Falcons will be expecting to establish the run in this game and it should mean their Quarter Back has time to attack the Carolina Secondary, which looks to be the weakness on the Defensive unit. Players like Kyle Pitts and Drake London should be able to make some big plays against this Secondary, while Carolina could really have a tough time if Brian Burns chooses to sit out as he awaits a new contract.

With the Atlanta Falcons expecting to be able to move the chains with some consistency, the Carolina Panthers will be under pressure to try and keep up as they look to the Overall Number 1 Pick in the Draft to lead them to successes. Bryce Young looks like he could be effective at this level, although there remain some concerns about his size at five foot ten, and there may also be one or two worries about the performance of the Offensive Line.

Another early problem for the Carolina Panthers is that the new look Receiving corps is a little banged up and they will be facing a Falcons Defensive unit which has been revamped in the off-season and with plenty of money invested.

Bryce Young will make plays, but it is a big ask for a rookie Quarter Back in a road start against a Divisional rival, especially with some of the key players on both sides of the ball potentially missing out.

The Panthers have won on their last three visits to Atlanta, but they did split the two regular season games in 2022.

This time the Atlanta Falcons look a little further down the line with their transition and Desmond Ridder can do enough to out-duel Bryce Young and help the home team win and cover.

MY PICKS: Detroit Lions + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Washington Commanders - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Rams + 5.5 Points @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

NFL Week 1 Picks 2022 (September 8-12)

Much like last season, my opening NFL Picks will be a thread focusing on the selections as the 2022 season gets underway.

Next week will be a fuller thread with my thoughts on the season as well my predictions for the Super Bowl.

Week 1 Picks can be read below.

Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The defending Super Bowl Champions are going to open up the 2022 season in the traditional Thursday Night Football spot.

The NFL would have been very keen to have a big game on deck to get the season underway and they could not have asked for a much better one than the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Buffalo Bills. It is a non-Conference affair, but these are two teams that will be expecting to push for the Super Bowl crown in February and I am sure there will be plenty out there that may feel the NFL season will close with the same match up that will be played on Thursday.

Like most teams in the NFL, some changes will have been made in the off-season, but Sean McVay has to be very pleased with the majority of his World Champions returning for another shot at the big time. The decision to bring in Matthew Stafford to lead the Offensive unit proved to be the masterstroke the Rams had been searching for and the Quarter Back looks to be over his elbow issues ahead of the new season.

It is a concerning issue that Stafford has been dealing with and the real test will come in a live game and when he takes his first big hit from the Buffalo pass rushers.

However, if Matthew Stafford is as healthy as most expect, he should be able to pick up from where he left off and that should be leading the Rams efficiently from the Quarter Back position. Robert Woods may be gone, but Allen Robinson has been signed to play opposite Cooper Kupp and I think they will be able to move the chains through the air against a Buffalo Secondary that will be missing Tre'Davious White, although Jordan Poyer is expected to suit up.

Changes on the Defensive Line may have weakened the Bills a little bit more so the Rams could look to establish Cam Akers or Darrell Henderson, although Sean McVay's system is all about getting the Quarter Back comfortable. Matthew Stafford is massively experienced and I do think he is going to have a strong opening game for the Los Angeles Rams and score plenty of points.

The Rams are going to need plenty of points too when going up against the Buffalo Bills and this powerful Offensive unit that is as good as any in the NFL. Josh Allen continues to develop at Quarter Back and the Bills will still be kicking themselves for losing in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs last season, especially as the Overtime loss in Kansas City came down to the toss of a coin.

As strong as the Bills are on the Offensive side of the ball, they are facing an elite Los Angeles Defensive unit and the first month of the season can see the Defensive side of the ball have a slight edge over the scoring players.

Aaron Donald has been persuaded to avoid retirement and Jalen Ramsey is still one of the elite Secondary players in the League and there is a feeling that the Rams can do enough to at least slow the Bills down somewhat.

That may be the difference in a tight and competitive game and I do think it is a surprise to see the Los Angeles Rams as the home underdog. Sean McVay has been a strong Head Coach at preparing his team for Week 1 and they have covered in each of the last five seasons on the opening weekend.

Take nothing away from Sean McDermott, who is also a very strong Head Coach that has his Buffalo team well prepared, but I do think the Rams are being underrated for the opening game of the NFL season. The Bills did win here two years ago in a very high-scoring game and they were the very slight favourite on that day, but I think the defending Champions will be looking to prove themselves as the underdog in this one and my feeling is that Matthew Stafford can just out-duel Josh Allen in the narrow upset.

I would love to have seen the spread hit the key number 3, but being given points with the Champs in their banner raising home opener seems too good to ignore, even if the public seems to be firmly in the Buffalo camp. The Bills are going to be very hard to beat for much of the regular season and I think they are a genuine Super Bowl contender, and Von Miller will want to remind his former team of his qualities, but the home team in these openers have tended to have a slight edge and I think that will be the case in Week 1 of the 2022 season.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: If Tom Brady had remained in retirement instead of returning to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it would have been all change in the NFC South with all four teams having significant changes ahead of the 2022 season.

The Buccaneers may be the favourites in the Division with Brady leading the way, but the New Orleans Saints will remember being crowned Champions in the NFC South just two seasons ago. They have lost Sean Payton at Head Coach, which is going to hurt the New Orleans Saints, but Dennis Allen has experienced being at the helm in the NFL and I do think his time spent with the Saints should make the change a little more seamless.

It is still a big challenge for the New Orleans Saints who missed the PlayOffs for the first since 2016 when finishing with a 9-8 record. That was largely down to the uncertainty that came about when Drew Brees retired at Quarter Back, although Jameis Winston had played well enough to believe he was on the right track to lead to the Saints to the post-season before suffering a season ending ACL injury.

Jameis Winston has returned and looked pretty strong, while a huge boost for the entire New Orleans Offensive unit will be the expected return of Michael Thomas. He was one of the premier Wide Receivers in the NFL, but missed all of 2021 and could provide a boost for the Saints and the entire Offensive unit.

Throwing against the Atlanta Falcons won't be very easy, but I do think Jameis Winston can have a strong game targeting Alvin Kamara coming out of the backfield and Thomas when he finds room in the middle of the field. The Quarter Back is missing a key part of the Offensive Line, but I am not sure the Falcons will be able to generate enough pressure up front to worry Winston and he can move the chains pretty efficiently.

Despite the loss of Sean Payton, the Saints do look stronger than the Atlanta Falcons who finished with a 7-10 record last season, but who have decided to trade away long-term Quarter Back Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts. Marcus Mariota has not been a regular starter in the NFL in recent years, but he has been tasked with leading the Falcons while their Third Round Draft selection Desmond Ridder continues to develop behind the Quarter Back.

Dennis Allen may not have had the best of times as the Head Coach of the now Las Vegas Raiders, but he did do a strong job with the New Orleans Defensive unit in his time as Defensive Co-Ordinator here. His Saints team are expected to continue to be dominant on this side of the ball and they have an effective pass rush which can make the difference in this Divisional Game to open the 2022 season.

Games between the Saints and Falcons have tended to be competitive, but New Orleans have won on their last four visits here including in Week 18 last season. The Saints have covered on each of those occasions and they have regularly covered more often than not when set as the road favourite.

On the other side, the Atlanta Falcons went 0-4 against the spread as the home underdog with Arthur Smith as Head Coach and I do think Winston and the Saints can make the plays to cover this number.

San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears Pick: The weather looks to be the big equaliser on Sunday afternoon as Week 1 of the NFL gets underway, but I do think the San Francisco 49ers would have some questions to answer even in better conditions. A wet day will make it very difficult for Trey Lance to throw the ball at Quarter Back, especially with the lack of experience he has in leading the way.

The pressure will build on Trey Lance now that Jimmy Garoppolo has signed a contract to remain with the San Francisco 49ers in 2022. Most expected the Quarter Back to have been traded away, but his presence is a worry for Lance, especially as Jimmy Garoppolo has reached the Super Bowl with the 49ers and is coming off a season in which he guided San Francisco to twelve wins last time out.

A narrow loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game will have stung, and it was a surprise to see the 49ers decide to make the change at Quarter Back.

Trey Lance does not have ideal conditions to perform, but he can run the ball much more efficiently than Jimmy Garoppolo and that is likely going to be a key in Week 1. The Quarter Back also benefits from facing the Chicago Bears who look to be in the midst of a massive rebuild and the Monsters of the Midway are not nearly as intimidating as some of the units that have operated for the Bears in recent years.

George Kittle could be missing, but Trey Lance has been given plenty of talent to get the best out of him and I do think the 49ers schemes should see them move the ball pretty well, even in the wet and rainy conditions expected.

Things are likely to be much tougher for Justin Fields as the Chicago Bears Quarter Back considering how little support he has around him on both the Offensive and Defensive units. The Offensive Line has issues and I expect those to be highlighted by the pressure the 49ers are expected to generate up front, while San Francisco's Defensive Line should be much stouter against the run if Fields decides to use his legs.

A new Coaching staff going up against Kyle Shanahan and his staff looks a mismatch to open the season, while Justin Fields has a lot to prove in tough circumstances considering he finished with a 3-7 record against the spread in his rookie season. The Bears were also 0-5 against the spread as the home underdog in 2021, while the 49ers are 6-4 against the spread as the road favourite in the last couple of seasons.

This is a huge spread for someone as inexperienced as Trey Lance to cover, but I do think he is surrounded by a lot more support than Justin Fields in Chicago. With a team that can use short passing to get the ball into the hands of their talented skill players, Trey Lance can also take advantage of the weaker Chicago Defensive front and can use his legs to move the 49ers into a position to cover.

Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets Pick: There was some controversy around Quarter Back Zach Wilson in the off-season, but that was mainly about his off-field preferences and the New York Jets are very confident in their second year signal caller. However, we won't know how much Wilson has improved for a few weeks as another injury means more time on the sidelines and the ball will be given to veteran Joe Flacco.

He is best known for being the Quarter Back to win the last of the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowls, but that game was played at the end of the 2012 season and Joe Flacco is little more than a backup these days. Motivation will not be difficult to find against his former team, but Joe Flacco will be the first to remind the Jets how well Baltimore are prepared under John Harbaugh who is looking for a bounce back season.

A disappointing 8-9 season was down to injuries, but the Baltimore Ravens have gone in hard in the Draft and Lamar Jackson will also be playing with a point to prove. A contract extension has not been agreed, but Jackson has made sure he has bet on himself and he is going to be determined to have a much better season than 2021 when injury and lack of consistency let him down.

The Interceptions were a big problem for Lamar Jackson in 2021, but he had led the Ravens to an 8-5 record before missing the final four games with injury. Better health for his Offensive Line will be encouraging, and they look to have made some solid decisions in the Draft to expect the Baltimore Ravens to be challenging in the AFC North.

The New York Jets look to be improved too, but I think it is a big test to shut down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens Offensively and I do think the game is going to come down to how many points Joe Flacco can help the Jets produce.

I do think the Draft has helped the Jets improve Offensively, but you have to believe that the Ravens will have a perfect plan to deal with Joe Flacco. That should see Baltimore slow down the Jets for long enough to give Lamar Jackson the chance to not only win, but to cover on the road.

The Jets finished last season with a 3-5 record against the spread as the home underdog.

Baltimore also have a strong Week 1 record with John Harbaugh showing he can be tough to beat when given time to prepare, and the Ravens are 4-1 against the spread in the last five between these teams.

My only real concern is that the Baltimore Ravens have not been a great road favourite to back in recent years, but I think they can bring in a solid game plan to close out Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson can begin what I believe will be a big season for him.

Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Trading away your starting Quarter Back who has won a Super Bowl for your franchise and taken you to another is always going to be a difficult moment for any team and their fans. That is the situation for the Seattle Seahawks going into the 2022 season and many consider them amongst the worst teams in the NFL, although Head Coach Pete Carroll is going to want to extract everything he can get from the players on the roster.

The fans may get a clear reminder of the decision the team has made in the off-season immediately as they are facing a returning Russell Wilson with his new team, the Denver Broncos. After searching for a Peyton Manning replacement ever since he won the Super Bowl and rode off into the sunset, the Broncos finally have a player that can compete with Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr and Justin Herbert in the AFC West.

Make no mistake, it is a huge challenge for Russell Wilson and the veteran will still have something to prove as some believe his best days may be behind him. At least with the Broncos he has a Defensive unit that can stand up if needed, while Wilson goes into a very good situation when you think of the Receiving corps at his disposal.

The Denver Offensive Line has a couple of injuries to deal with, but this is a much stronger Line than the one that Russell Wilson was playing behind in Seattle and I do think that will help the veteran in what is a bounce back year for him and the Broncos. Recent years have been difficult for Denver behind some dodgy Quarter Back play and they have not had a winning record since 2016, the season following Peyton Manning's retirement when Denver missed the PlayOffs behind a 9-7 record.

That will mean there is some pressure on Russell Wilson considering what Denver gave away to get him and it will be an emotional opener for the Quarter Back at the Stadium he called home ever since moving into the NFL. On the other hand, Wilson should be well accustomed to the kind of noise levels that the 12th Man will make in Seattle and a transitioning team looks one he should be able to exploit.

The Seahawks finished with a 7-10 record in the NFC West last season, a Division that provided both teams for the NFC Championship Game. They have lost Bobby Wagner on the Defensive side of the ball, the last remaining Legion of Boom member, and this looks a tough season all around for Pete Carroll and his team.

In recent seasons, the Defensive numbers have been in decline and I am not sure the Seahawks will be able to reverse that, while Russell Wilson is going to know a lot about the team and their tendencies, which makes it easier for him to find the holes in the Secondary. The Defensive Line may still be solid, but Russell Wilson's movement may make it easier to establish the run for the Broncos and I do think the Wide Receivers in Denver win their battles.

So it will be up to Geno Smith to replace Russell Wilson and try and keep up with him on the scoreboard.

The former New York Jet has been the backup to Wilson in Seattle and started three games last season so the transition should not be an issue, although there is a massive drop off when it comes to levels. The Quarter Back will need the Seahawks to control the game with their running attack, but at some point he is going to have to make plays against the Denver Secondary and I think that is where the mistakes may come.

Geno Smith's Offensive Line may struggle in pass protection and I don't think he is as strong on the run as Russell Wilson has proved himself to be and it could lead to the Seahawks fans having to suffer through a Monday Night Football loss at home.

I have to respect the fact that Pete Carroll is a quality Head Coach and his record as an underdog is very impressive- the Seahawks are 16-7 against the spread in their last twenty-three games when catching points. They have also been an impressive home underdog on Monday Night Football, but I can't shake the factor of Russell Wilson's return and him knowing exactly what he is likely to see from a weaker Seattle team than the one he was a part of.

Perhaps emotions means Russell Wilson does not want to crush the Seahawks, but I am not sure the end of that partnership was as amicable as some might think and he has helped cover the spread plenty in this Stadium before. It is a big number, but I think Seattle may struggle to keep up in this one and a couple of turnovers can help Denver seal an opening win on the road.

MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Minnesota Vikings - 1 Point @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Kansas City Chiefs - 6 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)